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NL Notes: Contreras, Pirates, Santana

By Mark Polishuk | September 28, 2023 at 2:24pm CDT

Willson Contreras’ season came to an early end when the catcher was placed on the Cardinals’ 10-day injured list last week, though the good news is that Contreras’ bout of tendinitis in his left wrist doesn’t appear to need surgery, Cards manager Oliver Marmol told MLB.com and other media.  Contreras met with a hand specialist who advised that the wrist problem can be healed through a non-surgical recovery process, though since this specialist was a second opinion, that would imply that an initial diagnosis perhaps recommended some kind of procedure.

Nevertheless, Contreras will hopefully soon be healed up from both his wrist issue and other injuries, as Marmol mentioned that the catcher had also been playing through nagging soreness in his right hand and left wrist.  The health problems didn’t appear to hamper Contreras’ bat (.264/.358/.467 with 20 homers in 495 plate appearances), but they perhaps impacted his defense, as his framing and blocking numbers were both below average and he received a career-low -9 total as per the Defensive Runs Saved metric.

More from around the National League…

  • The Braves’ success is built on a foundation of long-term contracts with core players, and Yahoo Sports’ Hannah Keyser explores the team’s strategy in getting so many of its younger stars to lock into these deals.  “The sense around the industry is that the Braves put a particular emphasis on exclusively pursuing players whose agents are amenable to extensions,” Keyser writes, which includes some smaller agencies whose own fortunes would be boosted along with their client’s.  Geography is also a factor — Matt Olson, Michael Harris II, Austin Riley, Spencer Strider, and Sean Murphy are all either from Atlanta or have some family ties to Georgia or the southeastern United States, so they were particularly open to the idea of staying close to home.  There is also the simple fact that a solid long-term core roster makes other players want to join such a roster, as players are naturally more interested in remaining part of “a good environment, a winning culture,” as Olson put it.  President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos is praised for his rapport with the team, and the fact that he tends to first broach the topic of extensions personally with the players is perhaps a reason why so many deals get done (though Scott Boras is one agent who has concerns that such contact can hamper an agent’s ability to get the best possible contract for their client).
  • Several Pirates-related topics were discussed by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette’s Jason Mackey in a chat with readers, including the possibility of a reunion between Carlos Santana and the Bucs this winter.  Santana signed a one-year, $6.725MM free agent deal with Pittsburgh last winter, then hit .235/.321/.412 with 12 home runs over 393 PA before being moved to the Brewers at the trade deadline.  Santana has had roughly a league-average bat or worse over the last four seasons and he turns 38 in April, so his market will likely again be limited to fairly inexpensive one-year deals.  This could fit the Pirates’ need for a veteran bat who can play at least part-time at first base/DH, and Santana was a popular mentor figure in the Pittsburgh clubhouse.  Mackey opines that the Pirates should devote the bulk of their spending this offseason towards pitching, with Santana perhaps representing a familiar, solid, and less-expensive answer for the Bucs’ first base need.
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Atlanta Braves Notes Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals Carlos Santana Willson Contreras

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Offseason Outlook Chat Transcript: Pittsburgh Pirates

By Steve Adams | September 28, 2023 at 1:01pm CDT

MLBTR is holding live chats specific to each of the 30 teams as the offseason nears. In conjunction with this morning’s Pirates Offseason Outlook, Steve Adams hosted a Pirates-centric chat this morning. Click here to read the transcript!

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2023-24 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Chats Pittsburgh Pirates

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Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates

By Steve Adams | September 28, 2023 at 10:47am CDT

In conjunction with this installment in our Offseason Outlook series, Steve Adams will be hosting a Pirates-centric chat today at 1pm CT. Click here to ask a question in advance, and be sure to check back to participate live!

The Pirates’ blistering start to the season gave way to another year of losing baseball and deadline selling. With many members of their vaunted farm system now on the cusp of their first full season in the Majors, they should be set for a more active offseason than in recent years.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Bryan Reynolds, OF: $100MM through 2030 (includes buyout of 2031 club option)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B: $50MM through 2029 (includes buyout of 2030 club option)

2024 commitments: $17MM
Total future commitments: $150MM

Option Decisions

  • Jarlin Garcia, LHP: $3.25MM club option (no buyout)

Arbitration-Eligible Players

  • Miguel Andujar
  • Ryan Borucki
  • Mitch Keller
  • JT Brubaker
  • David Bednar
  • Connor Joe (likely Super Two)
  • Non-tender candidate(s): Andujar, Joe

Free Agents

  • Andrew McCutchen, Vince Velasquez

The beginning of the offseason is often a time for changes in the front office or in the dugout, particularly among losing clubs, but there’s no real risk of that among the Pittsburgh brass. Manager Derek Shelton was extended earlier this season, with his new deal beginning next year. There’s been no indication that general manager Ben Cherington is in any kind of jeopardy after a third losing season. Cherington was hired to embark on a full-scale rebuilding effort, and ownership knew from the start that it’d be a lengthy process.

The first and most straightforward decision of the winter will come on lefty Jarlin Garcia’s $3.25MM club option, which will surely be declined after he missed the year due to injury. There’s no buyout on the option, so the Bucs will let him go after a season spent on the injured list.

A larger and more pressing issue for Bucs fans pertains to franchise icon Andrew McCutchen. The former National League MVP returned to the organization that drafted him last offseason, signing a one-year deal worth $5MM. McCutchen has been vocal about the fact that the Pirates and Pittsburgh feel like home to him, and with his 37th birthday just two weeks away as of this writing, he’s made clear that he has little appetite to continue his career elsewhere.

Cherington has been candid about his desire to bring McCutchen back in 2024, stating earlier this month that the two parties would discuss a new contract this offseason. McCutchen’s 2023 campaign ended early due to a partial Achilles tear, but he picked up his 2000th career hit and 400th career double this year in black and gold. The overwhelming likelihood is that he’ll return to the Pirates on another short-term deal in 2024, this time taking aim at his 300th career home run — he’s currently at 299 — and again serving as a veteran mentor for a young Bucs club. Of course, Cutch brings more than just leadership to the table; he batted .256/.378/.397 with a dozen homers and 11 steals in 112 games this year.

Assuming McCutchen is back, he’ll be the primary designated hitter. The Pirates gave him just 64 innings in right field this year, and that was before the aforementioned Achilles injury. He’ll be locked into a largely regular lineup role, joining third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes and outfielders Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski in that regard. Hayes had a rough first half but continued to provide elite defense through his struggles at the plate. And, in the second half of the season, he’s erupted with a .307/.345/.556 slash line. Suwinski strikes out too much to hit for a high average but draws tons of walks (14.6%) and has thus far swatted 26 homers and swiped 13 bags. Reynolds’ bat is down a bit from peak levels, but he turned in his third straight season of 20-plus homers and was still a well above-average offensive performer.

At least one other spot on the diamond seems all but solidified. It’s been a lost year for Oneil Cruz, who suffered a fractured ankle in a home plate collision with White Sox catcher Seby Zavala in early April. The 6’7″ Cruz has long been lauded as one of the top prospects in the game due to his near-unparalleled raw power and plus speed. Losing his entire age-24 season to injury is a blow to his development, but he’s still controllable for five years. In his first 410 MLB plate appearances, he’s batted .237/.302/.449 with a jarring 33.7% strikeout rate, but Cruz has some of the loudest tools in the game and possesses star potential. He’ll treat the 2023 season as a mulligan as he looks to realize his upside.

As far as position players go, the Pirates don’t necessarily have anyone else firmly entrenched just yet. Top catching prospects Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis both made their MLB debuts this year, but both struggled at the plate. Davis saw the vast majority of his time in right field, and a move out from behind the plate has long been viewed as a possibility for the 2021 No. 1 overall pick. The Bucs only gave him two big league innings at catcher, though they’ve not yet said he won’t play the position at all in the future. Still, it seems that Rodriguez could well be the preferred option there, with Davis sliding into an outfield/first base/DH/part-time catcher role if the bat picks up.

Both Rodriguez and Davis will play big roles with the Bucs next year, but it might still be prudent to bring in some veteran competition, even if only on a minor league deal. Jason Delay is a fine backup catcher, but if one or both of Rodriguez and Davis wind up needing time in the minors, having another backstop (e.g. Curt Casali, Sandy Leon, Luke Maile) on hand would hold value.

In the outfield, Connor Joe and Alfonso Rivas are options if Davis needs some Triple-A time. But Joe is likely to be arb-eligible and saw his bat wilt after a torrid start to the season (.217/.309/.351 in his past 356 plate appearances). Rivas, 27, has huge Triple-A numbers but has yet to carry them to the Majors in parts of three seasons. Miguel Andujar is a non-tender candidate, and Joe could be as well. There are plenty of affordable corner outfielders on the market if the Bucs want to go outside the organization to provide some competition for Davis. Randal Grichuk, Hunter Renfroe and David Peralta will all be free agents, as will Travis Jankowski and Michael A. Taylor, if the preference is for someone more defensive-minded.

As far as areas that are in clear need of work, the right side of the infield stands out. Last offseason’s first base acquisitions, Carlos Santana and Ji Man Choi, were both traded at the deadline. The previously mentioned Joe wound up playing a significant amount at first base but has seen his season-long batting line dip below the league average despite his hot start to the year. Rivas presents another option here.

Rookie Jared Triolo is a third baseman who’s gotten a few brief looks at first base. He could be an option, but his .292/.382/.385 slash seems bound to regress when his .419 BABIP comes back down to Earth. And given his 29% strikeout rate, it’s fair to harbor some concerns. Prospect Malcom Nunez had a tough showing in his Triple-A debut this year, though he’s still just 22. Garrett Cooper and C.J. Cron are among the short-term options available in free agency,

At second base, none of Ji Hwan Bae, Liover Peguero or Nick Gonzales have forcefully staked their claim to the position. All three are former prospects of note who have minor league options remaining, but second base is another area where the Bucs could at least bring in some veteran competition to steady the position in 2024 and serve as a bridge to top prospect Termarr Johnson. The free agent market at second base is thin behind Whit Merrifield, but the trade and non-tender markets could open up additional avenues.

Turning to the pitching staff, there’s some degree of a foundation in place. Mitch Keller will be back to lead the staff. There could be trade rumors surrounding the righty, as has been the case for much of the past two years, but Keller has stepped up as a solid mid-rotation arm over the past two seasons, often showing flashes of an even higher ceiling. With two years of club control remaining, he could well be an extension candidate. (More on that in a bit.) Keller and fellow righty Johan Oviedo — acquired from the Cardinals alongside Nunez in exchange for Jose Quintana — have cemented themselves on the staff. It’s been a rollercoaster season for Oviedo, but the end result will be 175ish innings with an ERA in the low 4.00s. He’s currently at 172 2/3 frames with a 4.12 mark and one start remaining.

There are both depth options and rising prospects who can factor into the starting pitching mix. Righty JT Brubaker will return from Tommy John surgery at some point early next summer. Deadline pickup Bailey Falter has had a tough year but logged a 3.86 ERA in 84 innings with the 2022 Phillies. He’ll be out of options next year, so he’ll have to make the club as either a fifth starter or long reliever — or else be traded or designated for assignment. Right-hander Roansy Contreras entered the year looking like a rotation building block but has struggled in Pittsburgh and in Triple-A. He’ll get additional opportunities in the future, though it’s always possible they come in the bullpen.

Prospects like Quinn Priester and Luis Ortiz have already gotten their feet wet, and there’s more help on the horizon. Anthony Solometo, Jared Jones and 2023 No. 1 overall pick Paul Skenes could all debut next year. Skenes’ eventual arrival will be one of the most eagerly anticipated pitching debuts since Stephen Strasburg first took the mound for the Nationals in 2010.

In-house options notwithstanding, the Bucs figure to add at least one arm this year. They’ve added a low-ceiling veteran stabilizer in each of the past three offseasons, bringing Tyler Anderson, Jose Quintana and Rich Hill aboard on one-year deals — and trading all three at that season’s respective deadline. There’s merit to making a similar play for some bulk innings this winter, with Kyle Gibson, Wade Miley and Martin Perez among the options who’d fit that bill.

Even if the Pirates do make such an addition, however, it’s quite arguable that the time has come for them to do something a bit more on the pitching front. A long-term play for a young ace like Japanese star Yoshinobu Yamamoto isn’t going to be in the cards for a club with such a modest annual payroll, and no one is going to predict the Pirates to sign Blake Snell on the heels of a Cy Young-caliber season. But the market offers plenty of upside plays, be it a multi-year pact for a still-young pitcher like Jack Flaherty or a shorter-term pickup of a pitcher looking to rebound from injury. Frankie Montas and Luis Severino both fit that description and would both bring substantially higher upside to the Pirates than their prior offseason pickups.

The bullpen, outside of David Bednar, is lacking in household names but not in quality. Bednar is a star and one of the game’s best bullpen arms, but Pittsburgh also got strong results out of less-heralded names like Colin Holderman, Dauri Moreta, Carmen Mlodzinski and even waiver/DFA pickups like Ryan Borucki and Thomas Hatch.

Some of the rotation candidates who don’t stick as starters will inevitably end up here, but there will also be injuries and regression among 2023’s quietly solid group. There’s certainly room to bring in a veteran arm here, though any veteran seeking closing opportunities will likely look elsewhere, as Bednar won’t be displaced — nor (to the chagrin of other fan bases) will he likely be traded with the Pirates hoping to emerge from their rebuild sooner than later. Phil Maton, Keynan Middleton, Ryne Stanek, Michael Fulmer and Brent Suter are among the many, many relief options available this winter.

Of course, repeated suggestions of the Pirates spending money will be met with anything ranging from skepticism to jokes and mockery. But the Pirates have just two players under contract beyond the current season, Reynolds and Hayes, and they’ll pay that pair a combined $17MM in 2024. There are a handful of players due raises in arbitration, but the prices figure to be modest. Keller will be due a raise on this year’s $2.375MM salary and figures to be the most expensive of the bunch. Brubaker will likely repeat last year’s $2.275MM salary after missing the year due to Tommy John surgery. Bednar is in his first trip through arbitration, and Borucki won’t cost much as a minor league signee.

Even after those arb raises, the Pirates could have under $30MM on the books. That doesn’t include league-minimum players to round out the roster, but it’s nevertheless a gap of more than $40MM from where their 2023 payroll began. And with increased expectations, it’s eminently plausible that ownership will give Cherington & Co. a bit more latitude in terms of spending (albeit not too much more).

Just as there’s room to look into free agency more extensively than in seasons past, there’s also payroll space to consider locking up key long-term pieces. Keller hasn’t reached ace status but holds a strong 3.82 ERA in 54 starts and 318 innings since incorporating a sinker into his repertoire in May 2022. That includes a poor finish to his 2023 season, which will surely be a factor the Pirates consider, but Keller’s workload is at career-high levels and the overall body of work the past two seasons remains strong. He’s logged better-than-average strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates in that time (23.5%, 7.5%, 46.1%) and is just 27 years old.

There are plenty of parallels between Keller and Twins righty Pablo Lopez, who inked a four-year, $73.5MM deal with Minnesota earlier this year when he was in the same service class that Keller will be in this coming offseason. Perhaps Keller’s slightly lesser track record and shaky finish will prevent him from quite reaching that annual value, but it’s certainly a relevant comparison.

Bednar, too, stands as a possible extension candidate — though multi-year deals for relievers are rare, particularly once they’ve reached their arbitration years. He has a healthier track record and more saves than Rays righty Pete Fairbanks, who back in March signed a three-year, $12MM deal that bought out his arbitration seasons and gave Tampa Bay control over one free agent year. Bednar is poised to do quite well in arbitration and might command close to double that commitment to put pen to paper, but it’s a concept worth exploring for an excellent reliever who’s popular with his hometown fans.

The Bucs could also look into a long-term deal with Cruz, though that’ll be a tall task as Cruz might want to put this year’s freak injury behind him and prove himself on the field before talking years and dollars.

It’s been a long time since Pirates fans got to follow a playoff-caliber club in Pittsburgh, but the latest rebuilding effort under a still relatively new front office regime is likely moving toward a conclusion. A lot rides on the continued development of high-end prospects like Davis, Rodriguez, Skenes, Jones, Solometo and Priester, but everyone from that group could contribute as soon as next season. Hayes, Reynolds, Suwinski, Cruz, Keller and Bednar give some immediate optimism, and they’ll be joined by that group of promising prospect as well as some veteran additions in an increasingly competitive NL Central next year.

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2023-24 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals Pittsburgh Pirates

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Pirates Select Kyle Nicolas

By Leo Morgenstern | September 19, 2023 at 3:34pm CDT

The Pirates have selected the contract of right-handed pitcher Kyle Nicolas, the team announced. In corresponding moves, fellow right-hander Thomas Hatch has been optioned to Triple-A, while Andrew McCutchen has been transferred to the 60-day injured list.

The 24-year-old Nicolas came to Pittsburgh in 2021 as part of the trade that sent Jacob Stallings to Miami. Primarily a starting pitcher during his first two years in the minors, he transitioned to a relief role this summer. By and large, he has performed much better out of the bullpen, albeit in a limited sample size. From August 1 to September 13, he pitched 21 innings in relief, posting a 2.14 ERA and striking out an incredible 30 batters.

Entering the season, both Baseball America and FanGraphs ranked Nicolas as the no. 14 prospect in the Pirates system. The evaluators at Baseball America praised his powerful fastball, while those at FanGraphs were more impressed with his consistent command. However, it should be said that both sources were assessing his body of work as a starter. Thus far, he has looked more like a power pitcher out of the bullpen, with an impressive 36.8% strikeout rate but a less-than-ideal 11.4% walk rate.

After four years in the Blue Jays organization, Hatch was designated for assignment this August. The Pirates quickly scooped him up and added the right-handed to the active roster. In 12 appearances for Pittsburgh, the 28-year-old pitched to a 4.03 ERA and a 4.49 SIERA, nothing spectacular, but perfectly serviceable numbers for a long reliever. Still, it’s understandable why the Pirates would be more interested in the potential that Nicolas brings. It’s far more likely that the youngster plays a significant role in next year’s bullpen.

As for McCutchen, his move to the 60-day IL is nothing more than a formality. The veteran tore his left Achilles tendon earlier this month, ending his 2023 campaign. According to Pirates general manager Ben Cherington, the team believes McCutchen will be back on the field in 2024, and the two sides have agreed to discuss a contract for next year during the offseason.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Transactions Andrew McCutchen Kyle Nicolas Thomas Hatch

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Ke’Bryan Hayes Lifting Baseballs, Self

By Darragh McDonald | September 15, 2023 at 1:37pm CDT

Pirates third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes has been a useful player in his career, despite his offense.

Coming into 2023, he had hit just 18 home runs in 256 games. His 8.4% walk rate was close to average, but he wasn’t producing enough power to really be valuable at the plate. His .261/.326/.386 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 95, indicating he was 5% below league average offensively overall. Subtract his blazing hot 2020 debut and you’re left with a line of .249/.315/.356 over 2021 and 2022 for a wRC+ of just 86. But he stole 30 bases in the 2020-2022 stretch and got excellent defensive grades across the board. Despite the slightly subpar offense, he was worth 6.6 wins above replacement in that time.

Although he was still a solid contributor prior to this year, there were reasons to believe he was capable of more. Last year, his average exit velocity was in the 85th percentile among qualified hitters, per Statcast, with his hard hit rate 84th. The reason his raw skills weren’t translating into results was largely due to pounding the ball into the ground. Hayes had a 52% ground ball rate over 2020-2022, well beyond league average, which has usually been around 42 or 43% in recent seasons.

The Pirates clearly had faith that he could tap into something more, as they signed him to an eight-year, $70MM extension going into the 2022 campaign, the largest contract in franchise history at that time.

Here in 2023, Hayes has seemingly taken some steps forward with the ground ball issue. His grounder rate is down to 42.3%, which is just barely better than the 42.5% league average this year but almost a 10-point improvement over his previous work. Getting under the ball more has naturally led to improved power output. He already has 13 homers this year in 111 games, a far better pace than the 18 he hit in 256 games prior to 2023.

The results are even better if we focus just on the second half. Hayes went on the injured list twice this summer due to back issues. Since being activated on August 1, he’s taken 159 trips to the plate and is hitting .297/.342/.552 for a wRC+ of 133. He has a 40.2% ground ball rate in that time and eight of his 13 homers have been hit in that stretch as well.

That is a very small sample of less than two months, but it has to be incredibly encouraging for Hayes and the Pirates. They don’t spend a lot of money, which means that it’s important for them to get value out of the money that they do spend. Hayes has a solid floor with his speed and defense, but becoming an above-average hitter could make him into a superstar. His offense on the season as a whole is still just shy of league average, wRC+ of 98, but he’s been worth 2.7 fWAR thanks to the speed and defense. If he can maintain even a small amount of his recent offensive surge, he would push that even farther next year. He’s still just 26 years old and could still be tapping into his potential, with six more guaranteed years remaining on his deal, along with a club option for 2030.

The Pirates still have a tall hill to climb in order to return to contention. The Brewers are perennial contenders. The Reds are loaded with young talent. The Cubs are in strong position. The Cardinals are sure to be aggressive in moving past this down year. The Bucs still have plenty of questions about their middle infield and pitching staff, but they should be able to count on solid production from the hot corner for the rest of the decade, and maybe even more.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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MLBTR Originals Pittsburgh Pirates Ke'Bryan Hayes

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Pirates, Andrew McCutchen Plan To Discuss New Contract In Offseason

By Steve Adams | September 14, 2023 at 4:15pm CDT

Andrew McCutchen’s Pittsburgh homecoming was the feel-good story of the year for Pirates fans, and while it ended on a sour note — McCutchen suffered a partial Achilles tear last week, ending his season — there’s mutual interest in a 2024 reunion. General manager Ben Cherington told Pirates beat writers yesterday that the team and McCutchen will meet in the offseason to discuss further extending the relationship (link via Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review).

“We believe that the injury he’s recovering from right now should not get in the way of him being a good baseball player next year and being someone who can help us, and we’ve agreed that we’ll pick that conversation up when the season is over,” Cherington said before adding that he’s hopeful the Pirates can enjoy “a lot more good moments out there with him.”

Now 36 years old, McCutchen returned to his original organization on a one-year, $5MM deal over the winter. The former NL MVP was the 11th overall draft pick by the Pirates back in 2005 and starred with Pittsburgh from 2009-17, leading the charge as the Bucs reached the postseason each year from 2013-15.

McCutchen was given a hero’s welcome upon returning to Pittsburgh and said both at the time of his signing and a couple months into the season that he had no desire to play anywhere other than Pittsburgh. “I don’t want to continue my career on another team,” McCutchen told Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette back on May 26. The Bucs honored those wishes, holding McCutchen at the trade deadline even amid interest from other clubs and even as they shipped out players such as Rich Hill, Carlos Santana, Ji Man Choi and Rodolfo Castro.

It’s been a productive return to the scene of his big league debut for McCutchen. In 473 trips to the plate, the five-time All-Star batted .256/.378/.397 with a dozen home runs, 19 doubles and 11 stolen bases. He also tallied the 2000th hit of his excellent career this season, and had it not been for his injury, he’d likely have swatted his 300th homer. As it stands, he’s sitting on 299 big flies in his career. If he indeed returns next year for a 16th Major League season, he’ll quite likely become just the 159th member of that 300-homer club.

As far as the roster fit goes, there probably won’t be much outfield time to go around — although that was also the case in 2023, when he logged just 64 innings in the field. Bryan Reynolds is entrenched in left field, and Jack Suwinski figures to have center field locked down after hitting (as of this writing) 25 home runs. McCutchen hasn’t been a viable option in center field for years anyhow.

Right field is a bit more up in the air, but top catching prospect Henry Davis has logged considerable time there, and the Bucs also have some depth names like Canaan Smith-Njigba and Joshua Palacios on the 40-man roster at present. McCutchen could reprise his role as the team’s primary designated hitter, and he’d certainly be an option in the outfield on occasion, perhaps lining up in right field against left-handed opponents.

From a payroll vantage point, McCutchen shouldn’t be a problem even for the light-spending Bucs. A salary comparable to this year’s $5MM rate wouldn’t be a surprise, and the Pirates only have $17MM on the books in 2024 anyhow: Reynolds’ $10MM salary and the $7MM owed to third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes. Arbitration raises will boost that number a bit, but the Bucs only have four eligible players: Mitch Keller, Miguel Andujar, JT Brubaker and David Bednar. Andujar is a non-tender candidate. Brubaker will likely earn the same $2.275MM he did in 2023 after missing the year due to Tommy John surgery. Bednar is eligible for only the first time. Keller stands to receive a healthy raise on this year’s $2.4375MM salary.

Even after accounting for those raises, the Pirates will probably only have around $30MM in total on the books — about $43MM less than the mark at which they opened the current season. That’d certainly leave ample room for spending, and if the improvements over the team’s 2022 record embolden owner Bob Nutting to increase payroll a bit, there could be a bit more in terms of available resources. A McCutchen reunion wouldn’t significantly cut into that payroll space, and it’s at least feasible that the Bucs could even be in on some mid-tier free agents (or perhaps acquire some controllable players who are entering or have entered their arbitration years).

For now, the focus will be on his recovery. It’s understandable if both team and player want to wait until there’s a better sense for how McCutchen will heal and recover before beginning to talk contract. But McCutchen’s message since day one back in Pittsburgh has been that he hopes to play out his career in black and gold, and Cherington’s latest comments only serve to reinforce the likelihood of that happening.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Andrew McCutchen

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Oneil Cruz Won’t Return This Season

By Darragh McDonald | September 12, 2023 at 5:09pm CDT

Pirates shortstop Oneil Cruz won’t be able to return to the club this season, manager Derek Shelton said on his 93.7 The Fan radio show, as relayed by Alex Stumpf of DK Pittsburgh Sports. Cruz has been been on the injured list since April and hoped to return before season’s end, but it seems that won’t happen.

It’s hardly a shocking development, as it was reported last month that Cruz had “plateaued” in his rehab. He was still experiencing soreness in his leg at that time and had been shut down for seven to 10 days already. A few weeks have gone by since then but the end of the season is drawing nigh and the Bucs are out of contention, making it sensible to focus on next year.

Though not surprising, the news is surely still disappointing to Cruz, the club and its fans. It was hoped that 2023 would be the year Cruz answered questions about his long-term path forward. But in just his ninth game of the season, he collided with catcher Seby Zavala of the White Sox while attempting to score and suffered a left ankle fracture that required surgery. The club provided an estimated four-month timeline on his return to action but it seems things haven’t been able to follow that plan.

The Pirates will now go into 2024 with the same questions they had coming into this year, and perhaps more. Cruz has showcased elite tools in his time in the big leagues, with his exit velocity, arm strength and sprint speed all featuring at or near the top of league leaderboards. But there were also reasons for hesitation. He struck out in 34.9% of his plate appearances last year, a mark that only Joey Gallo and Chris Taylor topped, among those with at least 350 plate appearances.

There have also long been questions about whether he can actually stick at shortstop, as no one with his 6’7″ frame has ever done it before. He was given a +1 grade from Defensive Runs Saved last year but Ultimate Zone Rating had him at -7.5 and Outs Above Average at -9.

Ideally, 2023 would have been a chance for him to show progress in those areas and convince the Bucs that he is their franchise shortstop going forward. Or even in the scenario where he didn’t progress, it would at least give them the information that they needed to start getting him time at other positions and find other solutions for the position. Instead, it’s been essentially a lost season, with Cruz sitting out the vast majority of it. The club sprinkled the shortstop playing time to various other players without any of them doing anything to cement themselves at the position.

Those questions around Cruz’s long-term fit will now linger, with the added uncertainty of how his ankle will heal. Perhaps more rest over the winter and a normal Spring Training will get everything back on track for next year, but his inability to get healthy on the expected timeline this year is at least somewhat concerning.

Although the Pirates showed signs of life early in the year, they ultimately fell out of contention and are in fourth place in the National League Central. With still many question marks around the roster, perhaps the club can still give him the chance to prove himself that he didn’t get here this year. But they will have to make a pivot towards contention at some point, which will eventually force some kind of decision on Cruz.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Oneil Cruz

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NL Central Notes: Donaldson, Stroman, Davis, Marte

By Nick Deeds | September 9, 2023 at 8:46pm CDT

The Brewers inked veteran third baseman Josh Donaldson to a minor league deal just before the calendar flipped to September, allowing the club to bring him up sometime this month for the stretch run and possibly into the postseason should they choose to do so. Donaldson, who slashed just .142/.225/.434 in 33 games with the Yankees this year before being released in late August, is not guaranteed a roster spot by any means, as MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy relays that manager Craig Counsell told reporters no call-up is imminent for the former MVP.

“In order for Josh to best be prepared to make a contribution here, we need to get a foundation of at-bats for him in the Minor Leagues.” Counsell said. Things are moving somewhat slowly on that front, as Donaldson has appeared in just four games for the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Nashville, with a .143/.294/.357 slash line across 17 plate appearances. Current third baseman Andruw Monasterio has provided the Brewers with roughly league average production in 254 trips to the plate this year, slashing .271/.343/.371 with a wRC+ of 97. Given the power Donaldson showed during his brief healthy stint with the Yankees this year, it’s feasible that he could provide the lineup with a boost compared to Monasterio’s low-power profile. Regardless of that possibility, however, it seems the 37-year-old will have to prove himself in the minors before joining the big league club in Milwaukee.

More from around the NL Central…

  • Cubs right-hander Marcus Stroman hasn’t pitched for the big league team since the end of July due to hip inflammation and a rib cartilage fracture, but continues to make progress on his return. With manager David Ross having indicated yesterday that Stroman is ahead of schedule following a successful live batting practice session on Thursday, it’s still nonetheless an encouraging sign for fans on the north side that Stroman is set to throw a second live BP at the club’s Arizona complex on Monday, per The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney. It seems reasonable to expect that if Monday’s session goes well, Stroman could advance to a rehab assignment in fairly short order. While it’s not clear if there’s enough time left in the regular season for Stroman to build up to a starter’s workload, it’s becoming increasingly likely the veteran righty returns to the mound in Chicago before the season comes to a close. With the Cubs currently in the thick of the playoff hunt, it’s possible Stroman could impact the team into October even if he isn’t able to return before the end of the regular season.
  • Pirates youngster Henry Davis didn’t see his big league career start off the way he surely hoped it would, as the first overall pick from the 2021 draft slashed just .213/.306/.339 (74 wRC+) in 209 trips to the plate before hitting the injured list with a muscle strain in his hand back in August. Fortunately for Davis, it seems like he’ll have a chance to end his rookie year on a high note, as Kevin Gorman of the Tribune-Review was among those to relay that the catcher-turned-outfielder will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A this evening. With Davis on the shelf, the club has mixed-and-matched between Miguel Andujar, Joshua Palacios, Ji Hwan Bae, and Connor Joe in the outfield alongside regulars Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski.
  • Reds infielder Noelvi Marte was scratched from the lineup just before today’s game against the Cardinals after an incident occurred on the field during pre-game warmups. As relayed by Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer, Marte was playing catch with shortstop Elly De La Cruz when Marte was caught unaware and struck in the face by a ball from De La Cruz. The club announced that Marte was day-to-day with a face contusion. Marte has performed decently in 70 plate appearances since having his contract selected late last month, with a .254/.329/.381 slash line that’s good for a wRC+ of 90. Infielder Alejo Lopez took over for Marte in the starting lineup this evening, with Spencer Steer sliding from second base to third base to accommodate Lopez. With Jonathan India, Matt McLain, and Kevin Newman all on the injured list already, a significant absence for Marte would be a brutal turn of events for the injury-plagued Reds.
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Chicago Cubs Cincinnati Reds Milwaukee Brewers Notes Pittsburgh Pirates Henry Davis Josh Donaldson Marcus Stroman Noelvi Marte

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Rob Zastryzny Elects Free Agency

By Anthony Franco | September 8, 2023 at 9:09pm CDT

Lefty reliever Rob Zastryzny elected minor league free agency, per his transaction log at MLB.com. He cleared outright waivers after being designated for assignment by the Pirates earlier in the week.

Zastryzny pitched in 21 games for the Bucs this season. He tossed 20 2/3 innings, working to a 4.79 ERA in the largest workload of his big league career. While his fastball averaged a personal-high 93 MPH, he struck out a well below-average 15.5% of batters faced. Zastryzny also walked opponents at a lofty 13.4% clip and spent a bit of time on the injured list with forearm inflammation.

The 31-year-old had better underlying numbers with the Bucs’ Triple-A team. His 4.41 ERA over 16 1/3 innings wasn’t far off his big league mark, but he had a solid 23.9% strikeout percentage while walking a microscopic 1.5% of batters faced. He kept the ball on the ground at a 45.8% clip.

Zastryzny has been outrighted a few times in his career, which gave him the right to test free agency. He wouldn’t be eligible for postseason play if he catches on with another club for the rest of the season. It wouldn’t be surprising if he turns his attention to a 2024 landing spot this late in the year.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Transactions Rob Zastryzny

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Andrew McCutchen Suffers Partial Achilles Tear, Done For Season

By Darragh McDonald | September 6, 2023 at 11:10am CDT

The Pirates announced to reporters, including Justice delos Santos of MLB.com, that outfielder/designated hitter Andrew McCutchen is going on the 10-day injured list due to a partial tear in his left Achilles tendon. McCutchen will be in a walking boot for the next six weeks, meaning his season is done with less than four weeks now remaining on the schedule. The club later officially announced McCutchen’s IL placement with infielder Jared Triolo recalled in a corresponding move.

McCutchen, 36, returned to the Pirates this season on a one-year, $5MM deal. He had spent his prime with the Bucs but eventually bounced to the Giants, Yankees, Phillies and Brewers as the Pirates underwent a rebuild and gave most of the playing time to younger players. But he was able to don the black and gold again this year, serving as a veteran presence for a young team on the rise.

That’s not to say that his position on the roster was merely ceremonial, as he’s actually been the club’s best hitter this year. He’s drawn walks in 15.9% of his plate appearances and hit 12 home runs. His .256/.378/.397 batting line amounts to a wRC+ of 115, indicating he’s been 15% better than the league average hitter this year, the highest mark on the club among those with at least 10 plate appearances.

The Bucs are well out of contention at this point but it’s nonetheless a tough pill to swallow, given his popularity among the fans and around baseball in general. He’s also currently sitting on 299 home runs, meaning he won’t have a chance to cross that milestone this year.

Although that’s surely frustrating, it seems possible he’ll have a chance to hit that marker next year. He has continually been open about his desire to return to the Pirates next year and reiterated that stance today, via delos Santos. He seems to have a good relationship with the franchise, making it fair to expect the two sides to reunite on another deal for 2024. The injury creates some cloudiness about his status, but if the six weeks in the walking boot get him back to health, he should be in line to have a fairly normal offseason and Spring Training.

Defensively, McCutchen was primarily a designated hitter this year, only heading to the outfield for 64 2/3 innings. Though the club might want to give some playing time to younger players, they could surely find some at-bats for their best offensive contributor this year, especially considering his iconic status in Pittsburgh.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Transactions Andrew McCutchen Jared Triolo

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