Kolby Allard

The Phillies are moving right-hander Taijuan Walker to the bullpen. Manager Rob Thomson informed reporters today, including Matt Gelb of The Athletic, who suggests that Tyler Phillips is likely to take the open rotation slot.

Going into the 2023 season, the Phils signed Walker to a four-year, $72MM deal. His first season in Philadelphia was serviceable enough, as he posted a 4.38 earned run average while taking the ball 31 times. The team didn’t give him a postseason start, however, going with a rotation of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Ranger Suárez, while Cristopher Sánchez made one start as well.

2024 has been far more trying. Walker began the season on the injured list due to right shoulder inflammation. He was reinstated from the IL in late April but went back on the shelf just under two months later due to right index finger inflammation. That second trip to the shelf lasted from late June to the middle of August.

Around those IL stints, he has made 14 starts with a 6.50 ERA. His 16.8% strikeout rate is a career low, apart from 2018 when he made just three starts for the Diamondbacks prior to undergoing Tommy John surgery. His four-seam fastball is averaging 91.5 miles per hour this year, whereas he has been in the 93-95 range for much of his career. He has allowed six earned runs in each of his past two starts.

In the short term, Walker’s poor performance isn’t going to sink the club. Their 78-55 record is one of the best in the majors. They have a five-game lead over Atlanta in the East and would almost certainly have a Wild Card spot even if that club runs them down.

Each of Wheeler, Nola, Suárez and Sánchez are having good seasons, giving the club a strong front four that should carry them through the end of the season and into the playoffs, as long as everyone is healthy. The extra off-days in the postseason generally allow club to get by with three or four starters, rather than five or six in the regular season.

Rosters expand from 26 to 28 on September 1, with clubs able to go from 13 pitchers to 14 as the maximum allowed. Having Walker as an expensive long reliever in the bullpen shouldn’t be too cumbersome from a roster construction point of view.

The long-term question is a bit more complicated. Walker’s deal pays him even salaries of $18MM in each year of his deal, meaning there will still be two years and $36MM remaining as of this winter. As Gelb highlights, teams rarely give up on players with that much money still to be paid out, usually hoping that some kind of bounceback will come to pass. He does mention a few exceptions, listing Pablo Sandoval as the player released with the most money still owed: $48.3MM. A few other listed examples include Robinson Canó ($37.6MM), José Abreu ($35MM) and Madison Bumgarner ($34MM).

Walker will be in that range but Gelb also adds that the club still feels there’s a path for getting him on track next year, which will be his age-32 campaign. “The program that he was on to try and gain velocity, we didn’t have enough time,” Thomson said. “Like, that program’s a long program, and we sort of cut the program off early. I think if he has a full offseason of that program, we have a better chance of seeing some improvement.”

Gelb adds that the club had Walker on a weighted ball program while he was out with the aforementioned finger injury. As mentioned earlier, his velocity has been down this year. Perhaps he’s never been 100% healthy this year and has a path to get back on track in future seasons.

That could lead the Phillies to being patient to see how things play out next year, but it’s possible the rotation will get more crowded over time. Wheeler, Nola and Sánchez are all signed through at least 2027, while Suárez still has one more arbitration season left, so he should be around through 2025. Prospect Andrew Painter could be more an option by then. He almost cracked the club’s rotation in 2023 but injuries put a stop to that and he eventually underwent Tommy John surgery last summer.

Gelb relays that Painter recently had a setback in his recovery but the club characterizes it as normal soreness for this part of the rehab process. He was also slowed by an illness recently. He will likely have workload restrictions in 2025 since he only threw 103 2/3 innings in 2022, followed by two lost seasons. Nonetheless, he is still ranked as one of the top pitching prospects in the sport and could be pushing for a big league debut next year.

Ideally, Walker will simply return to form and make this a non-issue. After returning from his aforementioned Tommy John surgery, he posted a 3.80 ERA over the 2020-22 seasons, which is what prompted the Phils to bring him aboard. Even if Painter gets in good form next year, there’s no guarantees that the other four will be healthy, so Walker could certainly be needed. Suárez could also depart in free agency prior to 2026, the final year of Walker’s deal. Though if the struggles from Walker continue, the temptation to release him may grow, especially as the money still owed to him shrinks over time.

For now, the club will turn the ball over to Phillips. He has debuted this year and thrown 36 innings with a 5.50 ERA. Gelb also suggests that Kolby Allard could be a candidate to take a spot. However, the lefty was just optioned on August 26 and needs to wait 15 days from that date before being recalled, unless he’s replacing someone going on the injured list. Allard has a 3.50 ERA in his 18 innings this year. He has a 5.92 ERA in his big league career and a 5.45 ERA in Triple-A this year.