Checking In On Last Season’s Worst Rotations
We checked in last week on what, if anything, the five lowest-scoring offenses of 2019 have done to improve themselves this winter. Let’s now take a look at whether any of the five starting rotations that posted the highest ERAs last year have gotten better this offseason. Free agency won’t offer much in the way of help at this point, so for the most part, what you see here is probably what you’ll get..
Colorado Rockies (5.87 ERA/5.31 FIP; current depth chart)
- Assembling a competent starting staff has regularly been a problem for the Rockies, who are stuck playing half their games at the unkind confines of Coors Field. It was a different story in 2018, the year the Rockies boasted a high-end starting staff, but things took a sharp turn for the worse last season. Aside from German Marquez and Jon Gray, who continued their strong production, no one from the Rockies’ rotation performed well. Kyle Freeland suffered through a disastrous campaign after posting a Cy Young-caliber 2018, while Antonio Senzatela, Peter Lambert, Jeff Hoffman, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Tim Melville, Tyler Anderson, Chad Bettis and Rico Garcia combined for woeful numbers across a combined 83 starts. So what have the Rockies done since to address their starting group? Nothing of note. It seems they’ll count on a bunch of their holdovers to turn in better showings, though their staff will take a big hit in the event they deal Gray (a potential trade candidate) before the season.
Los Angeles Angels (5.64 ERA/5.41 FIP; current depth chart)
- The Angels’ rotation suffered a terrible blow in the fall of 2018 when Shohei Ohtani underwent Tommy John surgery, costing him all of last season, and then tragedy struck last July when Tyler Skaggs passed away. Considering the circumstances, it’s not surprising the Angels’ staff reeled last season. Nevertheless, adding reinforcements was clearly in order for this winter. The problem is that the Angels still haven’t found a way to acquire a proven front-of-the-rotation type, which many expected to them to get when the winter began. Ohtani’s back, which is a major plus. Meanwhile, the acquisitions of innings-eaters Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran should help matters, but they’re not going to frighten opposing offenses. The Angels figure to keep trying to better their rotation in the coming months, though the open market has dried up and teams seemingly aren’t champing at the bit to move big-time starters via trade now.
Baltimore Orioles (5.57 ERA/5.72 FIP; current depth chart)
- Bundy, who led the O’s rotation in innings last season, is now gone. 2019 success story John Means remains in place, and Alex Cobb will be back in the wake of injuries that limited him to three starts. Those two aside, there’s little in the way of established starters for rebuilding Baltimore, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see the club try to find a cheap starter(s) in free agency before the season begins. The team did make an interesting move when it used the second pick of the Rule 5 Draft on 25-year-old righty Brandon Bailey, whom Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs calls a “spin rate monster.”
Detroit Tigers (5.51 ERA/4.66 FIP; current depth chart)
- Detroit’s rotation mix actually looks pretty promising, though it’s possible the team will weaken the mix by trading Matthew Boyd before the season. As of now, he’s back at the helm of a group that also got respectable performances from Spencer Turnbull and Daniel Norris last year. Stud prospects Casey Mize and Matt Manning are gaining on the majors, meanwhile, and Michael Fulmer should factor back in sometime this year after Tommy John surgery kept him away in 2019. Furthermore, the Tigers just signed the durable Ivan Nova to a cheap contract to serve as their resident back-end innings-eater. Jordan Zimmerman, arguably the weakest link in the chain, is also the most expensive. Mercifully for the Tigers, he’s finally entering the last season of what has been an albatross contract for the club.
Pittsburgh Pirates (5.19 ERA/4.78 FIP; current depth chart)
- The Pirates, already without staff leader Jameson Taillon for most of last season, suffered a horrid blow when he underwent a TJ procedure in August. He won’t be part of the 2020 staff as a result, leaving holdovers Chris Archer, Joe Musgrove and Trevor Williams at the helm of an uninspiring-looking bunch. Barring a trade, the hope is that the once-terrific Archer will put a nightmarish first year and a half as a Pirate behind him. Archer was markedly better as last season progressed, so there does seem to be some hope for a full-season bounce-back effort. The unit will include some speculative candidates in Tommy John rehabber Chad Kuhl and talented 23-year-old Mitch Keller, who struggled as a rookie but remains a premium pitching prospect.
The original version of this post mistakenly indicated that Kuhl underwent Tommy John surgery in 2019. His procedure occurred in September of 2018.
Angels Designate Luis Madero, Release Adalberto Mejia
The Angels announced that they’ve designated right-hander Luis Madero for assignment and released lefty Adalberto Mejia after he cleared waivers. Madero’s spot on the 40-man roster will go to the newly acquired Matt Andriese, whose trade to the Angels is now official. Mejia was designated for assignment last week.
Madero, 22, split the 2019 season between Class-A Advanced and Double-A but scuffled to the tune of a combined 5.03 ERA with 8.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a 47 percent grounder rate. Scouting reports on Madero peg his curveball as his best pitch and credit him with a low-90s heater as well. Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs tabbed him as a potential fifth starter heading into the 2019 season, although that was before the the 6’3″, 185-pound righty endured a rough season.
The 26-year-old Mejia was unscored upon in 9 1/3 minor league innings across multiple organizations this year but was hit hard in the Majors, logging a 6.61 ERA (4.97 FIP, 5.98 xFIP) with an ugly 30-to-21 K/BB ratio in 31 1/3 innings. He did make 21 respectable starts for the Twins in 2017 (4.50 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 4.0 BB/9) at just 24 years of age, creating some optimism that he could settle in as the fourth starter he’d been projected as in the upper minors. But blister issues and a left wrist injury shortened Mejia’s 2018 season, and he wasn’t able to regain his footing in 2019. He’ll now be free to sign with any club.
Angels Acquire Matt Andriese
4:13pm: The Diamondbacks and Angels have announced the trade.
3:47pm: The Angels and Diamondbacks have agreed to a trade that will send right-hander Matt Andriese from Arizona to Anaheim, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Minor league righty Jeremy Beasley is headed to the D-backs in the swap, per Robert Murray (Twitter link). The Athletic’s Zach Buchanan tweets that it’ll be a one-for-one swap of the two right-handers. Beasley isn’t on the 40-man roster, so the trade will drop Arizona to 39 players on its 40-man.
The 30-year-old Andriese pitched in 54 games for the D-backs in 2019, working to a 4.71 ERA with 10.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 1.02 HR/9 and a 50.3 percent ground-ball rate in 70 2/3 frames. Andriese’s 25.5 percent strikeout rate this past year was a career-high, and his 3.72 FIP, 3.88 xFIP and 3.82 SIERA all create some reason for optimism moving forward.
Andriese doesn’t throw especially hard, averaging 92.5 mph on his fastball this past season. But he does generate above-average spin rates on both his heater and his curveball, and opponents generally struggled to barrel the ball against him this past season (6.5 percent), which helped to limit his home run rate at a time when the rest of the league was serving up long balls at a record rate.
Although Andriese has experience as a starter with the Rays and even logged 127 1/3 innings for the Tampa Bay organization back in 2016, he’s been more heavily used as a reliever in recent seasons. However, Angels general manager Billy Eppler told reporters Tuesday that Andriese will be given a chance to win a rotation spot in Spring Training (link via MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger).
If he doesn’t succeed, he’ll give the club a relatively affordable multi-inning relief option; Andriese settled on a $1.395MM salary for the upcoming season this past Friday. With four-plus years of Major League service time, he can be controlled through the 2021 season via arbitration.
The 24-year-old Beasley had a big season split across three levels in 2018, when he topped out at Double-A, but his 2019 was more of a struggle. In a combined 122 1/3 innings, he logged a 4.49 ERA with 8.5 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9 and a 45 percent grounder rate between Double-A (108 2/3 innings) and Triple-A (13 2/3 innings). He ranked 18th among Halos farmhands over at MLB.com, where he’s described as a likely reliever who has at least opened some eyes in recent years with his perhaps unexpected success in a starting role.
Managers, Top Front Office Execs On Expiring Contracts
Monday was one of the most stunning days baseball has seen in recent memory. Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow and A.J. Hinch, who oversaw several contending teams in Houston and led the club to a World Series championship, lost their jobs as a result of a sign-stealing scandal. Before accusations against the Astros arose several weeks ago, neither Luhnow nor Hinch looked likely to leave their posts for the foreseeable future. Now, though, the Astros are the lone team in baseball that doesn’t have a clear answer at either spot (though the Red Sox could join the Astros soon if the league drops the hammer on manager Alex Cora). But what about after the 2020 season? Which clubs could be in need then?
With help from the ever-valuable Cot’s Baseball Contracts, let’s take a look at clubs whose GMs and/or managers are entering contract years. As a reminder, this list might not be complete or fully accurate. Some teams may have extended their lame-duck executives/skippers and not publicized those moves yet, for instance, while other individuals in those spots could have less job security than it appears.
Angels: Entering the 2016 season, the Angels hired general manager Billy Eppler to helm a franchise led by all-world center fielder Mike Trout. As was the case then, Trout remains on a collision course with a Cooperstown plaque. The problem is that the Angels have continually failed to take advantage of his presence. Since Eppler came aboard, they haven’t even posted a .500 season. They’re also on their third manager (Mike Scioscia, whom Eppler inherited, then Brad Ausmus and now Joe Maddon) since their GM assumed the reins. Eppler has been rather aggressive this offseason as he works on a turnaround, though, having signed third baseman Anthony Rendon to a seven-year, $235MM contract, picked up catcher Jason Castro and added starters Julio Teheran and Dylan Bundy. The acquisition of a much-needed front-line rotation piece this winter has eluded Eppler, who will perhaps keep trying to land one before the season. Regardless, it appears to be put up-or-shut up time for Eppler. Should the Angels fail to make significant progress in the upcoming campaign, it seems likely they’ll have a new GM a year from now.
Blue Jays: The partnership consisting of president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins has been going on since before 2016. The Blue Jays were then on the cusp of their second straight ALCS-bound season, but they’ve since launched a rebuild and endured three consecutive losing campaigns. Shapiro’s now going into the final season of his contract, though he and the organization are willing to discuss an extension, while Atkins’ status is a bit less clear. Atkins signed an extension last June, but it’s unknown whether it will go beyond the coming season. One thing’s for sure, however: This has been a busy offseason for Shapiro and Atkins, as the Jays have acquired four pitchers (Hyun-Jin Ryu, who cost the team an $80MM commitment, as well as Tanner Roark, Chase Anderson and Shun Yamaguchi) and infielder Travis Shaw.
Braves: The two-year extension Snitker inked in 2018 has a team option for 2021, in which he and the Braves will go for their third straight NL East title. Snitker, who took over as interim manager in 2016, endured a couple losing seasons before his recent run of success and has not been able to secure a playoff series win thus far. The overall results have been good, however, so it stands to reason the Braves will exercise Snitker’s option if they have another playoff-caliber season.
Nationals: The extension the Nationals gave GM Mike Rizzo a couple years back reportedly lasts through 2020, while manager Dave Martinez has a club option for ’21. Back when the Nats re-upped Rizzo, they were known as a talented team that couldn’t break through in the fall. That finally happened in 2019, the year the franchise finally took home its first World Series. Thanks in part to that triumph, it would be a stunner to see the Nats allow Rizzo or Martinez to get away anytime soon.
Royals: Like Rizzo, it doesn’t seem Moore’s in any danger of exiting his current organization. Moore, KC’s GM since 2006, has only overseen two playoff teams, but the Royals sure made those seasons count. They won the AL pennant in 2015 and then the World Series the next year. They’re now amid a rebuild and coming off two 100-loss seasons, and are likely in for another lean year. Still, new owner John Sherman is reportedly set to hand Moore an extension to keep him atop the franchise’s baseball hierarchy.
Tigers: GM Al Avila seems to be safe, at least from a contractual standpoint, but the rebuilding Tigers could go in another direction in the dugout soon. Veteran skipper Ron Gardenhire’s not signed beyond then, and there doesn’t appear to be any hurry on the team’s part to change that. While Gardenhire enjoyed plenty of success with the division-rival Twins from 2002-14, he signed off for a difficult job in Detroit. The club, which hasn’t had much talent throughout Gardenhire’s reign, has gone 111-212 on his two-season watch. The Tigers have somewhat beefed up their roster this winter, though, and that should give Gardenhire a legit chance to help lead the team to a better output than its 47-win mark in 2019. Detroit has redone the right side of its infield by signing first baseman C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop, improved at catcher by adding Austin Romine and landed innings-eater Ivan Nova for their rotation. Nothing splashy there, but Gardenhire’s probably happy to have those vets aboard after he had to guide such a sorry roster a season ago.
Yankees: This is the last guaranteed year of Boone’s contract, though his deal does include a club option for 2021. At this rate, the Yankees will exercise it, as Boone has made an almost seamless transition from the broadcast booth to the dugout. He has two 100-win seasons in as many attempts, has helped the Yankees to an ALCS, and nearly won AL Manager of the Year honors during an injury-laden 2019 for the club. Expectations will be even higher this season, though, considering Boone now has ace Gerrit Cole at the front of his rotation.
Giants Designate Zack Cozart, Claim Jake Jewell
The Giants announced Monday that they’ve claimed right-hander Jake Jewell off waivers from the Angels and designated infielder Zack Cozart for assignment to clear roster space. San Francisco acquired Cozart from the Angels earlier this winter, though it was obvious at the time that the trade was effectively a means of purchasing a prospect; the Giants took on the remainder of Cozart’s $12.167MM salary in order to land 2019 first-rounder Will Wilson from the Halos in that swap.
Jewell, 26, has yet to find big league success, as he’s served up 20 runs on 28 hits and eight walks with 23 strikeouts in 28 1/3 innings over parts of two seasons with the Angels. Control has been a persistent problem for the 6’3″, 200-pound righty, but scouting reports on him have praised him as possessing a plus fastball and slider. He’ll need to curb the walks and do a better job limiting long balls, but there’s some potential for him to emerge as a viable two-pitch reliever.
Cozart’s days in San Francisco were numbered from the start. The Giants have a full infield with Evan Longoria, Brandon Crawford, Mauricio Dubon and Brandon Belt all first in line for playing time around the diamond. Cozart’s 2016-17 run with the Reds was excellent, albeit injury shortened, but his health troubles have escalated to new heights since signing with the Angels on a three-year, $38MM deal. While some missed time was always going to be likely given his track record, there was little reason to predict that he’d be limited to just 96 games over the first two seasons of the deal.
Injuries haven’t helped Cozart’s productivity any, but the .190/.261/.296 slash he posted in 360 plate appearances with the Halos still registers as a shock, given his prior productivity in Cincinnati. He’ll surely be released within the week, at which point he’ll be free to sign with any club for nothing more than the league minimum (or, more likely, a minor league contract). The Giants will remain on the hook for the aforementioned $12.167MM he’s owed — minus the prorated league minimum for any time he spends in the big leagues with another team.
Angels Release Adalberto Mejia
The Angels have released left-hander Adalberto Mejia, the team announced. The club designated Mejia for assignment on Tuesday.
Set to become a free agent, the 26-year-old Mejia’s nomadic journey will continue. He has been designated five times in the past five months, with three of those DFAs having come from the Angels. Mejia has also been part of three other organizations (the Giants, Twins and Cardinals) since he broke into the professional ranks in 2011.
Mejia was a top 100 prospect in his younger days, though it’s clear by his inability to stick anywhere that he hasn’t lived up to the billing at the game’s highest level. He has divided his major league time between teams’ rotations and bullpens, and has posted a matching 4.62 ERA/FIP with 7.48 K/9, 4.38 BB/9 and a 36.1 percent groundball rate across 154 innings. On the other hand, Mejia has done well to tamp down opposing offenses in Triple-A ball, where he has recorded a 3.46 ERA with 8.4 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 over 166 1/3 frames.
2020 Arbitration Filing Numbers
MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.
After a busy day of dealmaking, 161 players (at last check) have reached agreement on arbitration salaries for the coming season. But 29 other tendered players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still settle before their hearings (which will take place in early to mid-February). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint. It’s hardly an unusual number of unresolved cases at this stage, but there are quite a few high-dollar situations still at issue and teams have increasingly adopted a “file-and-trial” approach to the process in recent years. (That is, no negotiations on single-season salaries after the deadline to exchange figures.)
We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker. We’ll update this list as the figures are reported:
- George Springer, Astros: $22.5MM versus $17.5MM (Jeff Passan of ESPN.com, via Twitter)
- J.T. Realmuto, Phillies: $12.4MM versus $10MM (Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly, via Twitter)
- Trevor Story, Rockies: $11.5MM versus $10.75MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Joc Pederson, Dodgers: $9.5MM versus $7.75MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox: $8.975MM versus $8.3MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Nick Ahmed, Diamondbacks: $6.95MM versus $6.6MM (Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, via Twitter)
- Shane Greene, Braves: $6.75MM versus $6.25MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Josh Hader, Brewers: $6.4MM versus $4.1MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Chris Taylor, Dodgers: $5.8MM versus $5.25MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Hector Neris, Phillies: $5.2MM versus $4.25MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Max Muncy, Dodgers: $4.675MM versus $4MM (Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times, via Twitter)
- Jose Berrios, Twins: $4.4MM versus $4.025MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Andrew Benintendi, Red Sox: $4.15MM versus $3.4MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Archie Bradley, Diamondbacks: $4.1MM versus $3.625MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
- Pedro Baez, Dodgers: $4.0MM versus $3.5MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League
Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.
We’ll track the majority of the American League’s settlements in this post and split off a separate one for NL settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:
- Newly acquired Angels righty Dylan Bundy receives a $5MM salary, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links). He had projected at a $5.7MM price tag. Teammate Hansel Robles gets $3.85MM, per Heyman, just shy of his $4MM projection.
- The Yankees have worked out deals with all of their eligible players. The team has a hefty $8.5MM pact with Aaron Judge, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Backstop Gary Sanchez settled for $5MM, per Feinsand (via Twitter). The New York org will pay righty Luis Cessa $895K and Jonathan Holder $750K, Murray reports (Twitter links). Fellow reliever Tommy Kahnle will earn $2.65MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). And star lefty James Paxton has settled at $12.5MM, Heyman adds via Twitter. Chad Green and Jordan Montgomery have also agreed to terms, the former at $1.275MM and the latter at $805K, per Heyman (Twitter links).
- The Twins announced that they struck deals with Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton. Jon Heyman of MLB Network followed up with salary terms (all links to Twitter). May earns $2,205,000; Rogers takes home $4.45MM; Rosario lands at $7.75MM; and Buxton receives $3.075MM. While the first and last of those land rather close to the projected amount, Rogers got $550K more and Rosario got $1.15MM less than the calculators predicted.
- Shortstop Carlos Correa settled with the Astros for $8MM, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (via Twitter). Righty Brad Peacock lands at a $3.9MM salary, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). The former went for more than his $7.4MM projection, while the latter ended up shy of the $4.6MM mark produced by the computers. The ‘Stros also have agreed with closer Roberto Osuna as well, per an announcement. It’s a $10MM deal, slotting in just $200K shy of his projection, per Rome (via Twitter).
- The Orioles have a deal with outfielder/first baseman Trey Mancini, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. It’s for $4.75MM, per Dan Connolly of The Athletic (via Twitter), well south of the $5.7MM projection.
- Outfielder Jorge Soler has agreed to a $7.3MM deal with the Royals, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets. That’s well off of the $11.2MM that MLBTR’s model projected, though it is likely that the cause of the gulf lies in the interpretation of the correct baseline to start from in building Soler’s salary. He’s in the 4+ service class but had been playing on the original deal he signed out of Cuba.
- The Tigers have a deal in place with southpaw Matthew Boyd, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). It’ll pay him $5.3MM, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). That falls comfortably below the $6.4MM, suggesting that Boyd’s camp was concerned with the way his suboptimal ERA would play in the arb process. Fellow lefty starter Daniel Norris will earn $2.96MM, McCosky tweets.
Earlier Settlements
Angels, Cam Bedrosian Avoid Arbitration
The Angels and right-handed reliever Cam Bedrosian have avoided arbitration with a $2.8MM settlement, Robert Murray reports. That’s the same salary MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected for Bedrosian in October.
At times, the 28-year-old Bedrosian has been a downright excellent late-game choice for the Angels since he made his major league debut in 2014. Bedrosian was at his best in 2016, a 40 1/3-innning showing in which he logged a near-spotless 1.12 ERA/2.13 FIP. He wasn’t that good in 2019, but Bedrosian did manage a solid 3.23 ERA/3.83 FIP with 9.39 K/9, 3.23 BB/9 and a 47.6 percent groundball rate over 61 1/3 innings, despite a career-low average fastball velocity of 93 mph.
Bedrosian, who has one more arbitration-eligible season left after this one, will once again be an important part of the Angels’ bullpen in 2020. The team itself has undergone major changes in the past couple months, but its bullpen looks largely the same.
Angels, Max Stassi Avoid Arbitration
The Angels and catcher Max Stassi have avoided arbitration with an $800K agreement, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweets. That’s the exact salary MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected for Stassi a few months back.
Stassi didn’t hit much in 2019 with the Astros and Angels, the latter of whom acquired him at the July trade deadline, and he underwent hip surgery in September. Nevertheless, the catcher-needy Angels have elected to keep him on their roster this offseason. The club recently added free agent Jason Castro, who will be its starting backstop in 2020, leaving the out-of-options Stassi as its primary backup.
Stassi, 28, isn’t far removed from an impressive all-around showing as an Astro in 2018. He slashed .226/.316/.394 (100 wRC+) while providing premium defense that year, though his offensive numbers cratered after the first couple months of the campaign. And last season was an offensive disaster for Stassi, owner of a .138/.211/.167 line across 147 trips to the plate. He did, however, remain a terrific defender, according to Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric, while throwing out a league-average 27 percent of would-be base thieves.