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Olney On Castro, Escobar, Wells, Pineda

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The Red Sox should complete a seven-year extension worth $154MM or so with Adrian Gonzalez at some point in the next ten days, as ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reminds us. On a lighter note, Olney points out that Boston appears to be functioning despite a winless week for the Red Sox. Here are the rest of Olney’s rumors.

  • Starlin Castro has “made the adjustment” to the big leagues and is no longer phased to be playing at the highest level, Cubs GM Jim Hendry says. 
  • Another young shortstop, Alcides Escobar of the Royals, may be the best defensive shortstop in the American League, according to at least one scout. 
  • Angels fans may not like hearing it, but one evaluator says that in sending Mike Napoli elsewhere they “traded a player who would've given them similar production to what they'll get out of Vernon Wells , except it'll cost them about $75 million more." 
  • Instead of delaying Michael Pineda’s service time and/or arbitration, the Mariners called him up to start the season in Seattle. "He earned the right to be on the club," GM Jack Zduriencik said. "We actually talked about calling him up last September."

Angels Notes: Kazmir, Bell, Palmer

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The latest on the Angels, who lost three of four games against the Royals over the weekend…

  • Though Angels manager Mike Scioscia says he’ll consider making changes to the pitching staff, Scott Kazmir’s job is safe for now, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The $12MM left-hander is on a “short leash,” but he’ll make at least one more start.
  • Dave Cameron of FanGraphs explains that there’s not much room for optimism when it comes to Kazmir or Marlins starter Javier Vazquez. I recently compared Kazmir to another well-paid left-hander who experienced early-career success, Oliver Perez.
  • Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles also weighs in on Kazmir's struggles and explains that Triple-A starters Matt Palmer and Trevor Bell are alternatives for the Angels to consider. They are looking out for end-of-rotation help and possibly a veteran reliever, according to Saxon.

Vernon Wells’ Free Agent Value

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In my Angels offseason in review article, I suggested that Vernon Wells might have gotten four years and $52MM at best if he had been a free agent this offseason.  Since the Angels essentially took on a four-year, $75.75MM commitment to Wells in the trade with the Blue Jays, they overpaid by at least $20MM – even if we leave Mike Napoli's positive trade value out of the equation.

I decided to conduct an informal poll on this topic.  I asked an assortment of team executives and agents what Wells would have gotten as a free agent this winter.  Three executives and three agents responded.  Here's what they said:

  • "At age 32 coming off a big year — but also realizing his previous three years were littered with injuries and inconsistency — I would think Wells would be in line for three-year, $36 million type deal.  He isn't as hot a name as Jayson Werth or even Jason Bay the year before but he still had a good year and has a performance history."
  • "Wells had a strong bounceback year last year and the market was WEAK for guys who can play center field…Wells would have commanded six years at $15-17MM a year for a contract anywhere from $90-102MM over the life of the contract."
  • "$50MM over four years from the Angels.  He had a nice year last year, plus I think the Angels got pretty desperate when everybody said no to them."
  • "I'd say Wells would have gotten a deal short of what Jason Bay received last year [four years, $66MM]. He’s still a decent enough player — but I can't see him doing any better than about one-half of the total package of what Werth received."
  • "I could see him being a $10-12 mil guy for maybe four years.  If you put on blinders to the contract, he is a 25 home run guy…inconsistent for sure, but still above average production."
  • "In the ballpark of three years, $40-45MM or four years, $50-55MM.  I assume Wells would probably have signed after Werth and Crawford.  Obviously same market as Beltre, but not sure the value is the same there."

I hadn't expected a consensus, but four years and $52MM does seem to be a fair estimate.  The Angels overpaid by about $24MM to get Wells, plus whatever trade value Napoli had.

Quick Hits: Aardsma, Angels, Padres

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Saturday Night Links..

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Angels

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The Angels are next in our Offseason In Review series.

Major League Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Summary

The Angels entered the offseason seemingly ready to spend; they were a strong fit for free agents Carl Crawford, Adrian Beltre, and Rafael Soriano.  However, they came up short on all major free agent targets, succeeding only in upgrading the bullpen.  Then GM Tony Reagins made matters worse by acquiring Vernon Wells, who has one of the worst contracts in baseball.

Wells

Wells has four years and $86MM left on his contract.  If we are to consider Juan Rivera to be dead weight, that's $5.25MM cleared, and the Blue Jays reportedly sent another $5MM.  The Angels' reluctance over the years to give playing time to Napoli unless they had to indicates they weren't fond of his receiving skills, and I'm guessing they didn't want to pay him $5.8MM in 2011.  Still, could have been non-tendered if the Halos didn't want him and he did have trade value by himself.  Since he wasn't a pure salary dump, I can't subtract Napoli's contract from Wells' burden even if Arte Moreno does.  Ultimately, it's as if the Angels gave Wells a four-year, $75.75MM free agent contract, with the bonuses of opening up an extra roster spot and not having to surrender a draft pick.

Wells isn't a $19MM player at this point in his career, though I am curious what kind of contract he would have gotten this winter as a free agent.  I think coming off one good year following a pretty bad one would have set his ceiling at four years and $52MM at the very most.  My comparison is Victor Martinez, another player who can handle a premium defensive position but is not regarded as good there.  So even with this generous comp, the Angels overpaid Wells by at least $20MM.  For the Wells deal to work out for the Angels, he'll need to improve defensively with the switch to left field and have offensive seasons resembling '08 and '10 rather than '07 and '09.  You can cherry-pick Wells' 2010 numbers either way, but it was a streaky season bookended by strong performances in April and September.  From May through August, he hit .251/.300/.449.  The ZiPS projection system calls for .260/.313/.432 in 2011 (and presumably worse in future years), which would make this trade a disaster.

As for lefty relievers Downs and Takahashi, the Angels certainly paid full sticker price.  But their bullpen needed the upgrade and such expenses are justified for big budget contending teams. 

On the plus side, the Angels have improved their outfield defense, which is crucial given their flyball pitching staff.  The Angels have serious offensive concerns, but all of the AL West contenders are flawed.  Despite a poor offseason, the Halos' fine rotation may still carry them to the playoffs in 2011.

Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.

Quick Hits: Rangers, Angels, Indians, CBA, Slowey

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Some links to browse through during your Sunday evening…

  • Add the Rangers to the list of clubs that are not interested in recently released Carlos Silva, reports MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan (on Twitter). The Yankees and Cardinals are also out.
  • The Angels can opt out of their stadium lease in 2016, but owner Arte Moreno told Mike DiGiovanna of The Los Angeles Times that the team has not begun exploring the possibility of building a new stadium. That process would have to start at least four years before the planned opening date.
  • Indians manager Manny Acta told MLB.com's Jordan Bastian that there are likely to be roster moves made on Monday when the 25-man roster is finalized (Twitter link).
  • Tom Krasovic spoke to several scouts about teams and players from all around the game.
  • In regard to CBA talks, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes that the "general consensus is that a hangup or even the slightest threat of a work stoppage would be shocking."
  • Within the same piece, Cafardo says the Twins aren't as willing to deal Kevin Slowey as it may seem. One scout opined that the right-hander is "throwing too well for them to deal him."
  • The Rockies continue to receive calls about their middle-infield depth, but the club isn't looking to move either Eric Young Jr. or Alfredo Amezaga, according to Troy Renck of the Denver Post.
  • Dave Bush earned a spot in the Rangers' bullpen as a long man, tweets Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. Bush would have opted out of his contract today if he didn't make the team.
  • The Red Sox' bullpen depth has drawn interest from other teams, a source tells Alex Speier of WEEI.com.

MLBTR's Luke Adams & Mike Axisa contributed to this post.

Royals Return Rule 5 Pick Robert Fish To Angels

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The Royals have returned Rule 5 Draft pick Robert Fish to the Angels according to Bob Dutton of The Kansas City Star (on Twitter). The Yankees originally selected the left-hander in the Rule 5, but the Royals claimed him off waivers earlier this month.

Fish, 23, allowed nine runs in 7 2/3 innings between both Kansas City and New York this spring. He's struck out 9.1 batters per nine innings in his minor league career (365 2/3 innings), but he's also walked 4.2 per nine. Fish shifted to relief full-time last season, though he has only one career appearance above Double-A.

Scott Kazmir & A Comparable Pitcher

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It might be impossible to find two pitchers who have caused Mets fans more grief over the course of the past five years than Scott Kazmir and Oliver Perez. The similarities don't end there; the strikeout-inducing left-handers both turned in tremendous seasons by the age of 22 only to falter soon afterwards and saddle their teams with albatross contracts.

Scott Kazmir

They are so statistically similar that Baseball-Reference lists Perez as one of the most comparable pitchers to Kazmir and vice versa. Both induce strikeouts and allow walks at an unusually high rate and each has led the league in walks and either Ks or K/9 at one point.

Despite the walks, both pitchers were tremendous just four years ago. Perez posted a 3.56 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 in 2007, his age-25 season. Kazmir, who was just 23 that year, posted a 3.48 ERA with 10.4 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9.

It's not easy to find young left-handers with numbers like that, so the Rays, who acquired Kazmir from the Mets for Victor Zambrano in a one-sided 2004 trade, signed the lefty to a three-year, $28.5MM extension early in the 2008 campaign. After the season ended, the Mets signed Perez to a three-year free agent deal worth $36MM. 

The contracts have soured and the Rays and Mets have since severed ties with the pitchers, who will collect their respective $12MM paychecks elsewhere this year. Perez will start the season in the Nationals' minor league system, far from Anaheim, where Kazmir remains a member of the Angels rotation despite an unimpressive spring.

Kazmir has said he's confident in his stuff and it would be compelling to see the left-hander capitalize on the opportunity to start and return to form. It wasn't that long ago that he posted a 1.73 ERA in his six-start debut with the Angels and he appears healthy, so some hope may remain for Angels fans.

But the Mets opened the season with Perez in their rotation last year and just 12 months later he's pitching for his career in the minor leagues. For Kazmir to avoid an unceremonious release of his own, he'll have to pitch better when the season begins and end the parallels between him and Perez.

Photo courtesy Icon SMI.

Doug Davis Throws For Eight Teams

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The Angels, Mets, Orioles, Rangers and Rockies were among the eight teams that sent scouts to Doug Davis' throwing sessions in Tempe today, reports MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez (Twitter link).  Davis threw a 45-pitch bullpen session and said his arm "felt great" afterwards, according to Sanchez.  As per recent reports, the three unnamed teams don't include the Astros or Davis' most recent team, the Brewers.

It isn't clear whether Davis expects a Major League or minor league contract, though given his injury history, the latter is much more reasonable.  Of the named teams, Texas is the club with most sudden need for starting pitching, given that Tommy Hunter suffered a groin injury this afternoon and Neftali Feliz has been slotted back into the closer's job.  The Rangers could sign Davis to a minor league deal to see how he performs in regular work, while putting Dave Bush into their rotation as Hunter's temporary replacement.  

AL West Notes: Feliz, Young, Angels, Felix

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Here's the latest from the reigning American League champions and their divisional rivals…

  • After the news broke earlier today that Neftali Feliz would remain the Rangers' closer this season, Nolan Ryan said the team is aiming to have Feliz join the rotation for the 2012 season.  "I think if we weren't in such a need for him as a closer, he would be starting for us this year," Ryan said in a radio interview on ESPN 103.3 FM's Galloway and Company (and reported on by Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas.com).  "I think what it means is that we have a year to find somebody within our system or through trade or a free agent acquisition to come in and take that role [as closer]."
  • Jon Daniels and Michael Young have met twice this spring to "clear the air," tweets Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.  Daniels expressed regret over not communicating better with Young, and also regretted that the veteran infielder received "undeserved criticism" for his trade request, reports T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com.  Daniels doesn't think Young will be dealt before Opening Day but "he hasn't ruled out anything."
  • The Angels fired scouting director Eddie Bane last fall, a decision that ESPN's Keith Law criticized in an e-mail to Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com.  Law thought Bane's firing "smacked of internal politics, and furthered Tony Reagins' reputation in the game as a difficult person to work for and someone who only values opinions that match his own." 
  • The Mariners have been adamant that they have no intention of trading Felix Hernandez, and Scott Miller of CBSSports.com commends the M's for their stance.
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