Free Agent Faceoff: Wheeler Vs. Bumgarner Vs. Ryu
It doesn’t take a baseball savant to figure out that Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg are the two best pitchers on the free-agent market. Cole is on a collision course with the largest contract a hurler has ever secured, a sure bet to outdo the $217MM Boston’s David Price received four years ago, while Strasburg could come within $20MM to $30MM of the $200MM mark in his own right. After those two aces, the starting market for free agents gets a lot less interesting, but that’s not to suggest it’s made up of nothing but back-end types. Quite the contrary, actually, as MLBTR forecasts that four other starters will land guarantees worth at least $50MM this offseason.
Former Met Zack Wheeler, longtime Giant Madison Bumgarner and ex-Dodger Hyun-Jin Ryu make up the remainder of the top five free-agent starters after Cole and Strasburg. Going by projected earning power, Wheeler is easily the most desirable of the trio. We’ve got him signing for $100MM over a half-decade, Bumgarner putting pen to paper on a four-year, $72MM accord and Ryu getting a three-year, $54MM contract. But you’re well within your rights to want Bumgarner or Ryu over Wheeler. Let’s take a closer look at the touted troika, and then you can vote on who’s the most appealing…
Zack Wheeler, RHP
Age: 30 in May
Qualifying offer? Yes
- Wheeler missed almost all of 2015-17 while dealing with arm issues, including a Tommy John procedure, but he has emphatically put those days behind him. He has been one of the most productive starters in baseball over the past two seasons, having tossed 180-plus innings of sub-4.00 ERA, four-plus-fWAR ball in each year. But it’s not just the bottom-line production that has put Wheeler on clubs’ radars. It’s also his elite fastball velocity, which clocked in at a personal-high 96.7 mph in 2019. His fastball and curveball spin were also better than average, per Statcast, while his average exit velocity against (86.2 mph; 90th percentile) and hard-hit rate against (32.2 percent; 82nd percentile) were near the top of the league.
Madison Bumgarner, LHP
Age: 30
Qualifying offer? Yes
- Bumgarner’s legendary postseason exploits are well-documented, but he hasn’t pitched a playoff game since 2016. Over the past couple years, Bumgarner’s days as a front-line starter have seemingly faded away. But he remains a major asset, someone just about any team would be happy to plug into its rotation. After a couple injury-shortened seasons, Bumgarner reestablished his durability in 2019 with 207 2/3 innings of 3.90 ERA/FIP ball and 8.8 K/9 and 1.86 BB/9. And Bumgarner’s fastball/curve spin rates were near the apex of the league this season, for what it’s worth.
Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP
Age: 33 by next season
Qualifying offer? No
- No one in this group did a better job preventing runs this year than Ryu, who’s an NL Cy Young finalist after recording a 2.32 ERA/3.10 FIP, 8.03 K/9 against 1.18 BB/9, and a 50.4 percent groundball rate across 182 2/3 innings. Terrific results are par for the course for Ryu – on a per-start basis, he may be the No. 1 pitcher here – but age and injury history threaten to hinder him to some degree on the open market. Ryu missed all of 2015 and then threw anywhere from 4 2/3 to 126 2/3 innings in each season from 2016-18.
There you have it, a quick rundown of the three premier free-agent starters not named Cole or Strasburg. Considering their histories, their qualifying offer statuses and their potential earning power, who’s the one you’d most like to sign?
(Poll link for app users)
Which starter would you sign?
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Madison Bumgarner 40% (5,623)
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Zack Wheeler 38% (5,327)
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Hyun-Jin Ryu 23% (3,191)
Total votes: 14,141
Kenley Jansen Won’t Exercise Opt-Out Clause
Dodgers right-hander Kenley Jansen passed on the opportunity to opt out of the final two years and $38MM on his five-year, $80MM contract, as was first reported a few days back by MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter).
It’s not a surprising decision in the least. Now 32 years old, Jansen has seen his velocity and his results decline in each of the past two seasons, and he assuredly would have been in line to receive less than $38MM on the open market.
Jansen’s strikeout and walk rates remain excellent (11.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9), but he’s become more hittable and more homer-prone over the past 15 months in particular. Jansen carried a 2.28 ERA and a 57-to-13 K/BB ratio through 51 1/3 innings into the month of August in 2018. From that point forth, however, he surrendered 11 earned runs on the strength of seven homers in his final 20 1/3 innings. He was sharp through the NLDS and NLCS last season before being tagged with a pair of blown saves in the team’s World Series loss to Boston.
The 2019 season was Jansen’s worst as a Major Leaguer. In 63 regular-season innings, he was tagged for a 3.71 ERA with nine homers surrendered. Dating back to last August, Jansen’s overall regular-season numbers are wholly unremarkable; he’s tallied 83 1/3 innings with an even 4.00 ERA. And despite his robust strikeout totals in that time, he’s yielded an average of 1.73 homers per nine innings pitched.
Perhaps a correction of this year’s explosive ball will prove beneficial, but it’s also worth noting that Jansen’s homer troubles were greater in 2018 than in 2019. At this point, with his once-94.3 mph cutter checking in at an average of 92.1 mph, it’s equally possible that Jansen simply won’t return to the dominant force he once was. His K/BB rates still give him a chance to be a quality late-inning arm, but he’ll need to curtail the home runs to some extent — even if he can’t return to his 2016-17 form, when he yielded just nine home runs over a span of 137 innings. He’ll earn $19MM in each of the next two seasons, but in spite of that salary, the Dodgers may be forced to push him into a lower-leverage role and alter the manner in which they handle their highest-leverage situations moving forward.
Dodgers Decline Jedd Gyorko’s Option
The Dodgers have declined their $13MM team option on infielder Jedd Gyorko (h/t to Ken Gurnick of MLB.com). He’ll instead receive a $1M buyout.
Today’s news is hardly unexpected. While LA acquired Gyorko from the Cardinals at the trade deadline to bolster their right-handed bench depth, he was never especially likely to cement himself as a long-term option. Injuries limited the veteran to 101 plate appearances between St. Louis and LA, and he was a shell of himself at the plate. Gyorko’s .174/.248/.250 line (36 wRC+) is hardly the platform season he would’ve liked.
That said, Gyorko was a productive player as recently as 2018. Each year from 2016-18, he was around ten percentage points better than a league average hitter. Nothing about his performance jumped off the page, but he was quietly a well-rounded player. Gyorko drew walks at a solid clip, struck out at an average rate, and hit for slightly above-average power. Toss in average defensive metrics at second and third base, and Gyorko was a solid everyday player, albeit not the most exciting.
While Gyorko has some shortstop experience, he’ll presumably be viewed as an insurance option at the corner infield and at second base by suitors. Second base, especially, is rife with veterans who will draw interest on short-term deals, and Gyorko certainly fits in that mix. Still just 31 with productive seasons in the not-too-distant past, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him find a major league deal this winter, although it’ll assuredly be for less than the value of the option the Dodgers declined.
Dodgers Select Victor Gonzalez’s Contract
The Dodgers have selected the contract of left-hander Victor Gonzalez from Triple-A Oklahoma City, the team announced. The move puts Gonzalez on the 40-man roster and protects him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft.
The 23-year-old Gonzalez isn’t ranked within MLB.com’s ranking of the Dodgers’ top 30 prospects, and he only just cracked the Triple-A level this year, tossing 14 innings for Oklahoma City. Nevertheless, the L.A. front office felt he was worth keeping given Gonzalez’s impressive numbers across three minor league levels in 2019.
Beginning the year in high-A ball and ending in Triple-A, Gonzalez posted a cumulative 2.31 ERA, 9.3 K/9, and 2.91 K/BB rate over 89 2/3 innings. Though Gonzalez started 13 of his 38 total appearances this season, he worked exclusively as a reliever in 15 Triple-A outings, and bullpen work is probably Gonzalez’s likeliest path to a possible big league debut in 2020.
With Gonzalez added, the Dodgers now have 38 players on their 40-man roster. Teams have until November 20 to finalize their 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 draft, which takes place on December 12.
Dodgers Set To Promote Mark Prior To Pitching Coach
The Dodgers lost pitching coach Rick Honeycutt to retirement earlier this month, though they appear to be closing in on a replacement. They’re working toward a deal to promote bullpen coach Mark Prior to take over for Honeycutt, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. It won’t be a surprising hire, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman suggested upon Honeycutt’s exit that Prior would grab the reins.
Prior, who’s now 39 years old, still counts as one of the most hyped pitching prospects of the past couple decades. He was a member of the Cubs from 2002-06, a span in which he ranged from good to excellent, but a rash of injuries ruined Prior’s MLB career and prevented him from pitching professionally after 2013. Prior then spent time as the Padres’ minor league pitching coordinator for three seasons before the Dodgers hired him to oversee their bullpen in advance of the 2018 campaign.
Now, assuming Prior does succeed Honeycutt, he’ll be inheriting a pitching staff with no shortage of talent. The Dodgers’ relief corps was somewhat of a sore spot in 2019, especially during a Game 5 meltdown against the Nationals in the NLDS, though the club’s pitchers still ranked at or near the top of the majors in ERA (first), K/BB ratio (first) and fWAR (second). Unfortunately for LA, it’s now at risk of losing starters Hyun-Jin Ryu and Rich Hill to free agency in the coming weeks. However, the big-spending team could re-sign either or both and/or go outside the organization this offseason to give Prior more to work with in 2020.
Giants Have Interviewed Bob Geren
The Giants have interviewed Dodgers bench coach Bob Geren in their search for a new manager, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic reports (via Twitter). At present, the only candidates reported to have received a second interview are Astros bench coach Joe Espada and recently dismissed Phillies manager Gabe Kapler.
Like Kapler, the 58-year-old Geren is plenty familiar with Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi from the pair’s days with the Dodgers. However, Geren’s connection with Zaidi predates their Dodgers tenure, as Geren also managed the Athletics from 2007-11. At the time Geren was hired in Oakland, Zaidi was a burgeoning baseball operations analyst with the Athletics, and he was the club’s director of baseball operations by the time Geren was dismissed in June 2011.
Geren, who played in parts of five Major League seasons as a catcher (mostly with the Yankees), has managed at coached extensively both in the at the Major League and Minor League level. He managed two different Athletics affiliates from 1999-2002 before being added to the Major League staff as a bullpen coach and eventually a bench coach. Since that five-year run as Oakland’s skipper, he’s spent four seasons apiece as the bench coach with the Mets and the Dodgers, working alongside managers Terry Collins and Dave Roberts.
Dodgers Reportedly Expected To Explore Trade For Francisco Lindor
After a disappointingly early postseason exit, the Dodgers are back to plotting the tweaks that will take their roster to yet another level. The initial expectation is that the Los Angeles organization will open trade talks with the Indians regarding star shortstop Francisco Lindor, unnamed sources tell Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter).
On the one hand, it’s hardly surprising to hear that the L.A. franchise has its eyes on Lindor, one of the game’s very best young players. On the other, it’s worth taking this report with a heavy dose of salt. It isn’t entirely clear from Morosi’s phrasing whether Dodgers executives have already crafted a clear plan to go after Lindor.
Even if the Dodgers are a contender for Lindor, there are plenty of obstacles to completing a swap. We’ve already seen a hint of the involvement of another coastal behemoth and numerous other clubs would surely want a crack at the superstar. The bidding would surely be intense.
And it’s not even clear just yet whether the Indians wish to take this course with their franchise centerpiece. While the Cleveland org would surely base its decision upon actual trade offers, it’ll hesitate even to launch earnest discussions — and thereby kickstart a rumor mill that would loom large over the offseason — unless it believes that the end result will be a swap.
The Dodgers aren’t exactly hurting for talent on the left side of the infield. Corey Seager wasn’t dominant in his first year back from Tommy John surgery, but was still quite productive and remains a high-end young talent. Justin Turner‘s glove may be slowing but his bat is just about as vicious as ever. And one of the game’s best prospects, Gavin Lux, has spent most of his professional time at shortstop (though the Dodgers utilized him at second in his debut year).
While it’d be hard to label shortstop as a need, it doesn’t take a ton of imagination to appreciate the concept of adding a mid-prime Lindor to the mix. It probably works even without a trade. Seager could shift over to third, with Turner spending more of his time at first base. Lux and Max Muncy would be the other key parts of the mix on the right side of the diamond, with Cody Bellinger spending most of his time in center field. The offensive upside of such an infield unit would be enormous.
Of course, it’s quite possible that there’d be some other changes to the L.A. roster mix, possibly even in a hypothetical swap to land Lindor. The Indians will not likely be focused on far-away talent in negotiations. Bringing aboard the exceptional talent will unquestionably require a major haul in return. Lindor, who’s closing in on his 26th birthday, is a high-grade defender and well-above-average offensive player. He’s projected to earn $16.7MM in arbitration — a big number but still well shy of his single-season open-market value. With one more arb year to go, Lindor has plenty of trade value; it’s also arguably the right time for the Indians to bite the bullet and cash him in.
Pirates Interview Matt Quatraro, George Lombard
10:40am: Pittsburgh has also interviewed Dodgers first base, outfield and baserunning coach George Lombard, per SiriusXM’s Craig Mish (Twitter link). Lombard, 44, played parts of six seasons as an outfielder in the Majors and has been in his current role since 2015. He was briefly named the Braves’ minor league field coordinator before accepting his current post with the Dodgers and has also served as a minor league outfield coordinator, hitting coach and manager in the Red Sox organization.
10:04am: The Pirates have interviewed Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro as part of their search for a new manager, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. Quatraro has also reportedly interviewed with the Giants organization.
Quatraro, who’ll turn 46 next month, served as a minor league hitting coach, manager and hitting coordinator in the Rays’ system before being hired as the Indians’ assistant hitting coach in 2014. Tampa Bay hired him back and installed him as their third base coach a year later, and he ascended to his current position of bench coach once the Blue Jays hired Charlie Montoyo away from the Rays last winter. A former catcher who played parts of seven minor league seasons in the Rays organization, Quatraro has also worked as a catching instructor in the minors with Tampa Bay.
If Quatraro does land with the Pirates (or with the Giants), it’ll mark the third consecutive offseason in which the Rays have had at least one member of their coaching staff hired away by another organization. Manager Kevin Cash enjoyed three years of continuity from 2015-17 but has since seen Rocco Baldelli hired as the Twins’ new skipper in addition to Montoyo’s hiring in Toronto.
Quatraro joins a list of Pirates interviewees that includes Twins bench coach Derek Shelton (also a former Rays coach), Athletics bench coach Ryan Christenson and Cardinals first base coach Stubby Clapp (as can be seen in MLBTR’s 2020 managerial search tracker). Others rumored to be in consideration include Astros bench coach Joe Espada, D-backs director of player development Mike Bell, Athletics quality control coach Mark Kotsay and former Pirates bench coach/former Rangers manager Jeff Banister, who is currently a special assistant in the Pittsburgh front office.
Justin Turner Open To Position Change
After a 2019 playoff ouster that left the Los Angeles fanbase in collective despair, Dodgers executive Andrew Friedman is likely to be faced with several challenging decisions this winter. However, in the event that his front office decides to pursue superstar third baseman Anthony Rendon, it appears they won’t face any opposition from incumbent third bagger Justin Turner. According to a report from Andy McCullough of The Athletic, Turner would be open to a position change if LA ultimately decides to seek a Rendon acquisition (link).
Before the Dodgers’ appearance in the NLDS, Turner was asked how he would respond if his team pursued Rendon–even if such a pursuit meant he had to change his spot on the diamond. “I’ve bounced around [the diamond] my whole career,” Turner responded. “I don’t care.” While this hardly registers as a ringing endorsement of the idea, Turner’s hypothetical openness is worthy to note when considering how Friedman could possibly retool a roster that went 106-56 in the 2019 regular season.
As McCullough notes, Rendon’s previously stated disinterest in playing deep into his 30s pairs well with the Dodgers characteristic aversion to long-term contracts. In a piece from The Athletic’s Rustin Dodds from a few weeks back, Rendon was asked to imagine what he will likely be doing at age 36, when he reaches the current age of teammate Howie Kendrick. “Hopefully not playing baseball,” Rendon said. “Probably sitting on the couch hanging out with my kids.” If the Texas product is true to his word, then it’s likely he, at 29, will be seeking a deal of no more than six or seven years this offseason.
Turner, 34, is still a third baseman worthy of being mentioned in Rendon’s rarified air. His .290/.372/.509 line in 2019 was par for the course as far as his Dodgers tenure goes–since coming to Los Angeles in 2014, the CS Fullerton product has been a .302/.381/.506 hitter (141 wRC+). Turner has one year and $20MM remaining on the four-year, $64MM pact he agreed to with L.A. back in 2016.
If the Dodgers do indeed have an interest in bringing Rendon, a potential world champion, into their fold, they may have to do a bit of CBT rejiggering. With the 2020 luxury tax line set at $208MM, Los Angeles may say goodbye to impending free agents Rich Hill and Hyun-Jin Ryu this offseason; it’s worth noting that the club will no longer be on the hook for Homer Bailey‘s salary moving forward, either. Still, arbitration raises are coming due to Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, and a little-known upstart named Cody Bellinger. As McCullough notes, a hypothetical Rendon addition, its implications on Turner aside, might necessitate the departure of a player like Pederson or Enrique Hernandez if the club is intent on avoiding luxury penalties.
Andrew Friedman On Kenley Jansen
Not long ago, it would been almost impossible to imagine anyone but Kenley Jansen serving as the Dodgers’ closer. But after an uncharacteristically pedestrian 2019 season for the long-dominant right-hander, Jansen may not be a lock for the role next year. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said Monday that Jansen’s still the team’s closer as of now, but LA “will see how things play out” in regards to the job (Twitter link via Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times).
Whether the 32-year-old Jansen will even be a Dodger in 2020 isn’t necessarily etched in stone, as he could opt out of the remainder of his contract. In all likelihood, though, Jansen’s going to stay put. Abandoning what’s left of his deal would mean leaving two years and $38MM on the table, which would look like an ill-advised move in the wake of the season Jansen just had.
Jansen earned his current pact – a five-year, $80MM guarantee – on the heels of an otherworldly 2016 showing, and while he continued to thrive the next season, he has been closer to good than elite since 2018. At least in comparison to his past self, Jansen was fairly ordinary this year. He posted a 3.71 ERA/3.48 FIP with 33 saves on 41 tries over 63 innings, giving him a personal-high ERA and a career-worst blown saves total. While Jansen did log 11.43 strikeouts per nine against 2.29 walks – a ratio just about any pitcher would sign up for – it’s not as impressive for a hurler who regularly posted a K/9 in the 13-14 range during his halcyon days.
Jansen was a key factor for the Dodgers in past playoff runs, but that wasn’t the case this year during their first-round loss to the Nationals. He threw just 1 2/3 innings during the Dodgers’ five-game defeat, including two-thirds of a frame in the decisive matchup of the series. By then, the Dodgers were already down 7-3 after an implosion from Joe Kelly.
Even though Jansen seemingly lost some of LA’s trust in 2019, he’s still likely to return as one of the team’s top relievers next season. Jansen and the rest of the club’s bullpen faced their fair share of scrutiny throughout the campaign, though, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Dodgers make a noteworthy effort to improve the unit over the winter. If the Dodgers end up in the market for a new closer, Aroldis Chapman (should he opt out of his Yankees deal) and Will Smith stand out as a couple potential free agents who could give the club an end-of-game upgrade over Jansen.