Dodgers Interested In Top Free Agents
The big-budget Dodgers have the money to spend on any of the absolute best free agents – right-handers Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg and third baseman Anthony Rendon – and they are indeed considering them, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. However, the luxury tax-minded team’s going to stay “disciplined” in its pursuit of those three, per Heyman.
There are few need areas on the Dodgers, evidenced by the fact they won a National League-high 106 games in 2019. Although the Dodgers fell in an upset to the eventual World Series-winning Nationals in the NLDS, it’s hard to deny the talent that’s on hand. The Dodgers could do next to nothing this offseason and still look like one of the majors’ premier teams at the outset of next year, but president Andrew Friedman & Co. are nonetheless working to better the roster in an effort to improve LA’s chances of breaking a championship drought that goes back to the 1980s.
That said, adding any of Cole, Strasburg or Rendon would represent a far more expensive pickup than anyone the Friedman-led Dodgers have signed thus far. Since Friedman took over after the 2014 season, the Dodgers have spent $80MM at most on a free agent, having re-signed Kenley Jansen entering 2017. Cole may end up tripling that total, with MLBTR predicting a $256MM guarantee, while Rendon should eclipse $200MM in his own right and Strasburg has a strong chance to approach that amount.
Either Cole or Strasburg would seemingly serve as a capable replacement for Hyun-Jin Ryu, who’s a free agent after what was a near-Cy Young season in 2019. Even with none of those names in the fold, the Dodgers look to be in good shape with Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Tony Gonsolin, Julio Urias, Kenta Maeda and Dustin May lining up as their top starters for next season. And they’re also doing quite well at third with Justin Turner, though he could move across the diamond if they make a major splash at the hot corner.
Latest On Kwang-hyun Kim
KBO left-hander Kwang-hyun Kim is expected to be posted by his parent club, the SK Wyverns, this offseason, and early indications are that he’ll be something of a hot commodity. Several MLB scouts are quoted in praise of Kim’s abilities in a Saturday article from Yoo Jee-ho of Yonhap News Agency, with several expressing optimism toward Kim’s chances of securing a rotation job (link). According to Jee-ho, Kim said Friday that he’d like to negotiate with teams that will give him an opportunity to start.
Three MLB scouts were quoted on the condition of anonymity in the above-linked piece, with the first evaluator opining that there will be “more than enough” teams willing to offer Kim a rotation spot (this scout also voiced a preference for Kim over Josh Lindblom, another star KBO pitcher expected to come stateside this offseason). A second scout described Kim’s slider and curve as “filthy” while placing a slightly above-average grade on the 31-year-old’s fastball. “If Kim is willing to settle for a relief role, he’ll certainly get a big league job,” said yet a third scout. “He could be a starter on a middling team.”
Kim’s own stated preference toward starting should help determine his ultimate destination. Yesterday, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic relayed that the Mets, Royals, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Cubs were among teams showing early interest. All of those teams could use another good arm on hand (who couldn’t?), but the Dodgers, in particular, don’t stand out as a team in dire need of starting depth. The club’s young pitching, to say nothing of veterans like Clayton Kershaw and Kenta Maeda, would seem to leave their rotation well spoken for, but it’s amusing to ponder if LA could allow Hyun-Jin Ryu, another former left-handed star of the KBO, to walk while securing Kim as a speculative starting replacement.
The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, certainly profile as a recently middle-of-the-pack team that has shown a willingness to gamble on the ability of a pitcher to translate their success to American soil. It was just last offseason that GM Mike Hazen signed pitcher Merrill Kelly to a two-year, $5.5MM guaranteed contract with consecutive club options valued at $4.25MM and $5.25MM. Like Kim, Kelly isn’t a particularly hard thrower, with a fastball sitting around 92 mph, but he was still able to parlay a four-year run of KBO success into a multi-year contract followed by a generally acceptable 2019 rookie year (4.42 ERA across 32 starts). The ‘Backs can’t be described as an especially pitching-needy team, but recent rumors around the name of lefty Robbie Ray could foreshadow an upcoming job opening in the Arizona rotation.
Kim threw to a 2.51 ERA in 191.1 innings with the Wyverns in 2019, continuing a career that, aside from a 2017 Tommy John procedure, has largely been immaculate. Since debuting in 2007 at the age of 18, the left-hander owns a 3.27 ERA with 7.8 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 1,673 2/3 career innings. Though Kim was unable to come to an accord with the Padres after his posting in 2014, it’s beginning to appear that his continued success, combined with a particularly pitching-hungry free-agent market, could soon lead to his long-awaited MLB debut.
Dodgers Extend Andrew Friedman
The Dodgers have signed president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman to a contract extension, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports. Terms of the deal are unknown, but it figures to be a large payday for Friedman, whose previous deal was worth a reported $35MM over five years. At the time, that was a record-setting pact for a baseball executive.
Locking up Friedman was a long-expected move for Los Angeles, which has been overwhelmingly successful since it pried him from Tampa Bay after the 2014 season. While the Dodgers’ long-running championship drought has continued since then, they have taken the NL West in each season during Friedman’s reign and won two pennants.
Friedman was at the helm when the Dodgers hired Dave Roberts as their manager entering 2016, though some fans of the team haven’t been enamored of that move. Nevertheless, Roberts has a fan in Friedman, who stuck by the skipper after the eventual title-winning Nationals upset the club in the first round of the playoffs this fall.
Roberts has been in charge of an enviable group of talent supplied in part by Friedman, who has acquired several stars during his run in LA. Max Muncy was a waiver claim who has turned into a standout, while the valuable Chris Taylor came over in an under-the-radar trade with the Mariners in 2016. Meantime, newly named NL MVP Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, Alex Verdugo, Julio Urias and Ross Stripling represent inherited players who have developed well in the Friedman era, and the team has drafted legitimate major leaguers such as Walker Buehler, Will Smith and Tony Gonsolin during his run. It also owns one of the majors’ premier farm systems, a group headlined by Friedman draft picks in Gavin Lux (first round, 2016) and Dustin May (third round, ’16).
Friedman has excelled at loading the ultra-rich Dodgers with cheap talent, but after coming over from a low-budget team, he has largely shied away from huge contracts. Re-signing longtime ace Clayton Kershaw (three years, $93MM), closer Kenley Jansen (five years, $80MM) and and third baseman Justin Turner (four years, $64MM) stand as the largest commitments the team has doled out under Friedman. Kershaw and Turner remain highly valuable, though Jansen has fallen off over the past couple seasons. Furthermore, free-agent signing A.J. Pollock – whom the Dodgers guaranteed four years and $60MM last winter – disappointed in his first season with the club. On the other hand, Japanese righty Kenta Maeda has delivered since the Dodgers inked him to an eight-year, $25MM guarantee in advance of the 2016 campaign.
The Dodgers have the financial might to pull off more headline-grabbing signings before next season, but it remains to be seen whether Friedman will take that route. Their most notable acquisitions may end up coming via trade, as Friedman has aggressively tried to upgrade his roster by swinging deals for the likes of Manny Machado, Yu Darvish, Yasmani Grandal and Enrique Hernandez in the past.
Regardless of how Friedman attempts to improve the Dodgers this offseason, they appear to be in good hands with him at the controls. No matter what happens in the coming months, they’ll be the clear-cut favorites to enter 2020 as NL West favorites and a team on the short list of predicted World Series winners. As such, it’s no surprise the Dodgers decided to keep Friedman under wraps going forward.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Players Added To 40-Man Roster: National League
We’re going to see a whole lot of players added to 40-man rosters in advance of tonight’s deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 draft. We will use this post to track those contract selections from National League teams that are not otherwise covered on the site.
NL West
- The Dodgers announced that they’ve selected the contracts of right-hander Mitchell White, infielder/outfielder Zach McKinstry and outfielder DJ Peters. Both White and Peters are considered to be among the club’s top 15 prospects. McKinstry isn’t generally ranked inside L.A.’s top 30, but the 24-year-old had a big season between Double-A and Triple-A in 2019 while appearing at six defensive positions (shortstop, second base, third base and all three outfield slots).
- The Diamondbacks announced that they’ve selected the contracts of right-handers Taylor Widener and Riley Smith as well as the contracts of infielders Andy Young and Wyatt Mathisen. Widener, 24, was one of the organization’s best pitching prospects coming into the season but was blown up for an eye-popping 8.10 ERA in 100 innings. He’s only a year removed from 137 1/3 innings of 2.75 ERA ball and an 11.5 K/9 mark in Double-A, however. Smith, 24, was sharp in Double-A before struggling in Triple-A — like many pitching prospects throughout the league (and with the D-backs in particular). Young, acquired in the Paul Goldschmidt trade last winter, hit 29 homers while playing three infield positions between Double-A and Triple-A. Mathisen, 26 in December, hit .283/.403/.601 in 345 Triple-A plate appearances.
- The Giants, surprisingly, did not add anyone to their 40-man roster prior to tonight’s deadline.
- The Rockies selected the contracts of infielder Tyler Nevin, left-hander Ben Bowden and right-handers Ashton Goudeau and Antonio Santos (Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post first reported the news on Twitter). Those four moves will fill the team’s 40-man roster. Of the four, Bowden and Nevin draw the most fanfare. Nevin, the No. 38 pick in the 2015 draft and son of former MLB slugger Phil Nevin, posted deceptively solid numbers in an extremely pitcher-friendly Double-A environment in 2019 (.251/.345/.399 — good for a 122 wRC+). Bowden, a second-round pick in ’16, posted gaudy strikeout numbers but struggled in Triple-A after dominating in Double-A in 2019.
- The Padres selected outfielder Jorge Ona‘s contract and designated outfielder Nick Martini for assignment, as outlined here.
NL Central
- The Cardinals announced the additions of Jake Woodford, Elehuris Montero and Alvaro Seijas while designating righty Dominic Leone for assignment (as detailed here at greater length).
- Outfielder Corey Ray and right-hander J.P. Feyereisen will head onto the Brewers 40-man, per Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (via Twitter). It’s not yet known if the team will make further roster additions, but it would have five additional spots to work with to do so. Ray was the fifth overall pick in the 2016 draft but is coming off of a rough season. Feyereisen, who was added in a quiet September swap, will have a chance to challenge for MLB relief opportunities. Milwaukee also added infielder Mark Mathias to the 40-man roster after acquiring him in a trade with the Indians tonight.
- The Cubs announced that they’ve added catcher Miguel Amaya, infielder Zack Short and right-handers Tyson Miller and Manuel Rodriguez to the 40-man roster. Amaya is the most highly regarded of the bunch, ranking second among Chicago farmhands and drawing some top 100 consideration at MLB.com.
- Four additions to the 40-man were announced by the Reds, who have selected the contracts of catcher Tyler Stephenson and right-handers Tony Santillan, Ryan Hendrix and Tejay Antone. All four rank within the club’s top 30 at MLB.com, headlined by Santillan at No. 4 and ranging all the way to Antone at No. 30. Santillan thrived in a brief Double-A debut in 2018 but struggled there in a larger 2019 sample (4.84 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 4.8 BB/9 in 102 1/3 innings). He’s still just 22, though, and is regarded as a potential big league starter. Stephenson is a former first-round pick who hit well in a highly pitcher-friendly Double-A setting (.285/.372/.410; 130 wRC+). Hendrix posted big strikeout numbers as a reliever in 2019, while Antone displayed sharp ground-ball skills as a starter and reached Triple-A for the first time.
- The Pirates added prospects Ke’Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz, Will Craig, Blake Cederlind and Cody Ponce to the 40-man roster while also designating four pitchers for assignment (as explored in greater length here). Lefty Williams Jerez and right-handers Dario Agrazal, Montana DuRapau and Luis Escobar were cut loose.
NL East
- Yesterday, the Braves announced the addition of five prospects to their 40-man roster: outfielder Cristian Pache, catcher William Contreras, right-hander Jasseel De La Cruz and lefties Tucker Davidson and Phil Pfeifer. (More about those moves here.)
- The Nationals announced that they have selected the contract of southpaw Ben Braymer. They still have a huge amount of 40-man flexibility to work with. Even after this move, the Nats have nine openings. The organization also surely expects to fill many of those slots with free agents and/or trade acquisitions after losing quite a few significant players to the open market. Braymer is a former 18th rounder out of Auburn who had a nice run last year at Double-A before being hit hard in the batter-friendly International League.
- The Phillies picked up lefty Cristopher Sanchez in a trade with the Rays and added him to the 40-man roster. Philadelphia also selected the contracts of lefties JoJo Romero and Garrett Cleavinger and right-hander Mauricio Llovera. (Details on those moves here.)
- The Mets announced the additions of Andres Gimenez, Thomas Szapucki, Ali Sanchez and Jordan Humphreys to the 40-man roster and designated righty Drew Gagnon for assignment. (More on those moves here).
- The Marlins opened some eyes by eating the remaining $22MM on Wei-Yin Chen‘s contract and adding six prospects to the 40-man roster: Sixto Sanchez, Lewin Diaz, Nick Neidert, Jazz Chisholm, Humberto Mejia and Edward Cabrera. (More details here.)
Latest On Kenta Maeda’s Status With Dodgers
Recent years have seen the Dodgers deploy pitcher Kenta Maeda in something of a fluid fashion, with the Japanese import generally moving to late-season bullpen duty after performing for the first few months of each campaign as a starter. While Maeda has generally flourished while working out of the bullpen, Friday’s report from Andy McCullough of The Athletic indicates that the hurler hasn’t been pleased with his tenuous hold on a rotation spot. Maeda’s dissatisfaction with his role has been communicated to the club and team president Andrew Friedman, who has, in return, issued a challenge to the pitcher to find “another gear” in his performance.
While taking this situation at face value might lead some to assume that the two parties are at an impasse, the sides have, judging from McCullough’s report, maintained an amicable relationship and open lines of communication. Maeda’s agent from Wasserman, Joel Wolfe, is quoted as saying that the idea of a trade has been explored by both sides, but such a possibility remains firmly on the backburner as both team and player figure out a way to accommodate a compromise. While there is a contractual component to Maeda’s concerns, Wolfe was quick to point out that the pitcher’s chief frustration is with his usage and not his compensation.
“He cares more about the role than the contract,” Wolfe said. “But the contract acts somewhat as a limitation because there’s a lot of upside for the Dodgers in limiting his starts.” The contract Wolfe refers to is the one Maeda signed with Los Angeles in advance of the 2016 season, when the right-hander secured an eight-year, $28MM on the strength of a sterling NPB track record.
Owing in part to elbow concerns that dogged Maeda at the time of his posting, that deal featured a $10MM in annual incentives related to games started and innings pitched. Obviously, Maeda’s move to the bullpen in 2017, 2018, and 2019 has severely hampered his chances of securing those sizable bonuses–and that’s before accounting for potential moves the club might make this offseason in an effort to improve its staff.
To be clear, the Dodgers already project to enter 2020 with a rather stacked rotation picture. Friedman recently outlined the club’s plan to enter next season with Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Julio Urias, and Maeda in the rotation, with youngsters Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin also on hand as rather formidable options. Rich Hill has clearly stated his desire to return to Dodger nation, and the club has been speculatively connected to virtually every significant free agent starter this side of Gerrit Cole.
Obviously, it may prove tough to find Maeda the 30 to 32 starts he desires with such a surplus in the rotation; further complicating matters is the unique value that the 32-year-old has offered in his recent hybrid role. Maeda’s annual moves to the bullpen have been something of a strategic boon for the club, as he’s posted a 3.19 ERA and 3.13 FIP out of the pen since 2017 (compared to a 4.12 ERA and 3.84 FIP as a starter across that same span).
Maeda has also exhibited undeniable inconsistencies across his splits profile, often struggling against left-handed hitters while absolutely trouncing righties. In 2019, Maeda offered a 5.27 ERA against southpaws while holding a 2.96 ERA mark against same-handed hitters; weighted on-base average (.319 vs. .229) painted a similarly imbalanced picture, supporting the notion that Maeda’s annual transformation into a right-handed setup stopper may actually just be the most prudent course of club action.
While the merits of the club’s historical usage of Maeda may be difficult to argue against, it will still be interesting to monitor whether the pitcher’s sentiments play at least some small role in the Dodgers’ approach to the trade or free agent front. The addition of a top right-handed relief option could conceivably lessen the imperative to again shift Maeda’s role again in 2020, whereas a significant free agent starter signing could represent yet another arm to help usher Maeda toward the bullpen in the season’s final months.
Cody Bellinger, Mike Trout Named League MVPs
Dodgers first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger and Angels outfielder Mike Trout were named the Most Valuable Players of their respective leagues, as announced by the Baseball Writers Association Of America. Full breakdowns of both votes are available on the BBWAA website (National League, American League).
Bellinger received 19 of 30 first-place votes. Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich made a spirited defense of his 2018 MVP Award by finishing second in the balloting, picking up 10 first-place votes and 18 seconds. Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon received the final first-place vote, and his third-place spot in the balloting represents his highest finish in the MVP race following a fifth-place showing in 2014 and a sixth-place result in 2017.
The NL MVP Award adds to an already stuffed trophy case for Bellinger over his three MLB seasons, as the 24-year-old also won Rookie Of The Year honors in 2017, has two All-Star appearances to his name, and won his first Gold Glove and Silver Slugger Awards earlier this fall. Bellinger hit .305/.406/.629 over 661 PA for the Dodgers, hitting 47 homers and leading all players in bWAR (9.0), while tying for third in fWAR (7.8) with Yelich.
It was expected to be a tight vote between Bellinger and Yelich, with Yelich having the slightly superior hitting numbers despite being limited to 580 PA and 130 games due to recurring back soreness throughout the year, and a fractured kneecap that ended his season on September 10. That late injury could have swung the vote in Bellinger’s favor, and the Dodgers star was also aided by a superlative defensive performance. Bellinger had a cumulative 22 Defensive Runs Saved, +13.7 UZR/150, and +7 Outs Above Average as an outfielder, mostly working in right field but also playing 170 2/3 above-average innings in center. Bellinger also saw some time at first base, adding to his versatility and making him the most dangerous of the Dodgers’ several multi-position weapons.
Trout was himself hampered by a late-season injury, as he didn’t play after September 7 due to a foot injury that required minor surgery. Still, that didn’t stop the Angels superstar from winning the third AL MVP Award of what is already one of the great careers in baseball history. Trout hit a career-best 45 homers while also batting .291/.438/.645 over 600 PA — his on-base percentage led the majors, while his slugging percentage and OPS led the American League. Trout also sat atop the fWAR leaderboard (8.6) while finishing third in bWAR (8.3).
It was a narrow victory for Trout over Astros infielder Alex Bregman, as the two players finished in the top two spots on all 30 ballots, with Trout holding the 17-13 edge in first-place votes. Bregman supporters undoubtedly pointed to the fact that Bregman hit .296/.423/.592 with 41 homers and finished second in both fWAR (8.5) and bWAR (8.4), while also playing in 156 games for a first-place team while Trout’s Angels again missed the postseason. The American League West had a clean sweep on the top three, as Athletics shortstop Marcus Semien finished third in the balloting (22 third-place votes).
The award continues Trout’s astonishing track record in AL MVP voting, as he now has three wins, four runners-up, and a fourth place (in an injury-shortened 2017) over his eight full seasons as a Major League player. Trout becomes just the tenth player in MLB history to win at least three MVP Awards, and since he is showing no signs of slowing down at age 28, he has to be considered a threat to catch or surpass the only player with four or more MVP trophies — seven-time NL MVP Barry Bonds.
NL West Notes: Padres, Cordero, Giants, Fetter, Dodgers
Padres GM AJ Preller spoke to reporters at the GM Meetings in Arizona yesterday, with a few interesting notes on the club’s current roster concerns. While Preller didn’t unequivocally dispel rumors of Luis Urias‘ availability on the trade market, he did offer that he sees “a lot of scenarios” in which the youngster is starting in the middle infield in 2020 (as noted in an article from Dennis Lin of The Athletic). Meanwhile, catcher Francisco Mejia is “very much in the catching equation” for the club next year, and team officials still feel like Austin Hedges can “swing the bat a lot better than he did [in 2019]”.
Preller also shared that the club is expected to retain second bagger Greg Garcia and that the club’s catching depth is “an area we get hit on” from other teams. Taken together, these comments don’t provide much clarity with regard to the team’s plans at catcher and second, but could be seen as typical of an executive staring down an offseason that offers a dizzying number of potential routes toward club improvement.
More from the NL West…
- Another one of Preller’s many touted young players, outfielder Franchy Cordero, tweaked a glute muscle while rehabbing at the team’s complex in Arizona this week. As reported by AJ Cassavell of MLB.com (link), the injury is not expected to be overly serious but should delay the 25-year-old’s participation in the Dominican Winter Leagues. Padres fans know well the extent to which Cordero has been limited in recent years by injuries, as a chronic elbow issue acted in concert with a quad injury to rob him of the majority of his 2019 season. Cordero, a lefty-swinging outfielder capable of playing center, fits exactly the type of player the Padres have been rumored to be in pursuit of this offseason, though he has been limited to just 79 major league games since debuting in 2017. For what it’s worth, Preller still characterized Cordero as, “One of the more talented and physically gifted players in the league in terms of a speed/power combo.”
- The Giants are considering University of Michigan coach Chris Fetter for their pitching coach vacancy, according to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (link). As noted previously, Fetter was a considered as a candidate for the Mets’ pitching coach opening. Fetter, a former ninth-round pick of the Padres back in 2009, previously spent time as a coach in the Dodgers system while new Giants manager Gabe Kapler was serving as the Los Angeles director of player development.
- Speaking of L.A., Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman reiterated the club’s plans to use Julio Urias in the rotation next season, as noted in a tweet from Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times (link). Friedman currently projects to use Urias, Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, and Kenta Maeda in the rotation, while Ross Stripling will “have a chance” to compete for a spot. The perennial NL West champs have also been connected to a number of high-profile starting pitchers this offseason (Gerrit Cole included), and starter Rich Hill has expressed a strong desire to return to the Dodgers. The team also has Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May on hand as starting options, with Pedro Moura of The Athletic (link) relaying that the club still views May as a big league starter moving forward despite his late-season 2019 deployment from the bullpen.
Hyun-Jin Ryu Hoping For Three- Or Four-Year Deal
After accepting a one-year, $17.9MM qualifying offer last winter, lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu is slated to fully explore the open market for the first time in his career. The NL Cy Young runner-up won’t have the burden of draft-pick compensation attached to his name, as he would’ve had he rejected last year’s offer, and he told reporters in his native South Korea this week that he’s hoping to sign a three- or four-year deal wherever he lands (link via Jee-Ho Yoo of the Yonhap News Agency).
Ryu’s decision to accept that qualifying offer looks to have paid off in spades, as the southpaw not only took home a rather hefty one-year salary in 2019 but also strengthened his open-market case with the finest season of his Major League career. In 29 starts and a total of 182 2/3 innings, Ryu worked to a pristine 2.32 ERA (3.10 FIP, 3.32 xFIP) with 8.0 K/9, 1.2 BB/9, 0.84 HR/9 and a 50.4 percent ground-ball rate. He may very well have won the NL Cy Young Award had it not been for a brief IL trip due to discomfort in his neck and some ensuing struggles in his return. Ryu yielded 21 runs (45 percent of his season total) in a span of 19 innings from Aug. 17 through Sept. 4 before rebounding with a trio of strong, seven-inning outings to close out the season.
At this point, Ryu says he’s entrusting agent Scott Boras to handle everything pertaining to his free agency, although Ryu did add that he doesn’t believe there have been many talks about a reunion with the Dodgers. That could change quickly, of course, and the Dodgers will surely gauge the asking price and market competition for Ryu — as they figure to do with virtually every free agent of note. Ryu also expressed gratitude in reference to recent comments made by countryman Shin-Soo Choo, who last week revealed that he’d pushed the Texas front office to look into signing Ryu. The 32-year-old Ryu (33 in March) said it would be “special” to play with a fellow Korean on the same big league club.
Whether a three- or four-year deal is possible will of course depend on the competition for Ryu’s services this winter. He ranks among the best available in terms of sheer talent, as evidenced by the otherworldly 2.21 ERA he’s notched in his past 265 big league innings dating back to Opening Day 2018. But Ryu’s next contract will begin with his age-33 campaign, and he carries with him an extensive injury history that’ll give plenty of teams pause.
Ryu had Tommy John surgery before he was even drafted in the Korea Baseball Organization, and he’s had a pair of surgeries since jumping to MLB as well: a shoulder operation to repair his labrum in 2015 and an elbow debridement procedure in 2016. Ryu pitched just 4 2/3 MLB innings from 2015-16 as a result of those two surgeries. He’s also had some hip troubles in the past, and in 2018 he was limited to 82 2/3 innings after suffering a gruesome injury when he tore a muscle in his groin clear off the bone.
Durability and age are the clearest red flags for Ryu as he and Boras look for a new contract this winter, but the lefty is one of the most impactful arms on the market. For a team that is reluctant to surrender draft picks by inking pitchers who received a qualifying offer, he’s the best available option. Ryu ranked ninth on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agent rankings earlier this month (wherein we predicted a three-year, $54MM deal with the Rangers).
Dodgers Pursuing High-End Third Baseman
9:05pm: Along with Donaldson, the Dodgers seem to have interest in Rendon, who’s “on their radar,” Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. Rendon, like Donaldson, has to decide whether to accept his team’s qualifying offer. But the longtime Nationals star is sure to reject it, as he appears to be in line to sign a contract worth more than $200MM prior to next season. It’s not the Dodgers’ M.O. to hand out that type of deal, but if they do win the bidding for Rendon or Donaldson, Turner would be open to changing positions. He has already offered to move off third if necessary.
2:03pm: Josh Donaldson technically still has a decision to make on the qualifying offer he received from the Braves, though rejecting that $17.8MM offer is all but a formality. The Phillies, Rangers, Nationals and Braves all have some level of interest in the the former AL MVP, and Jorge Castillo of the L.A. Times reports that the Dodgers, too, are considering a pursuit of the slugger.
Third base has been Justin Turner‘s domain in L.A. for the past six years, but the soon-to-be 35-year-old Turner is entering the final season of a four-year, $64MM contract in 2019. Defensive metrics soured on his once-excellently rated glovework in 2019, as he registered -7 Defensive Runs Saved and a -6.7 Ultimate Zone Rating. A move across the diamond to first base, or perhaps to second base, could open space for Donaldson and give the Dodgers a more palatable defensive alignment. Donaldson will turn 34 himself next month, but he rebounded from an injury-marred 2018 campaign to post a strong year on both sides of the ball in 2019 (+15 DRS, +2.4 UZR).
Donaldson fits the free-agent mold that has become typical under Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman: a high-end player who could conceivably had on a shorter-term deal with a premium annual salary. Donaldson’s age could limit him to three years — four seems like the largest commitment a team would make — meaning interested parties could potentially add an elite talent without assuming the long-term risk that inherently accompanies many premier free agents (e.g. Anthony Rendon). In 659 plate appearances this past season, Donaldson hit .259/.379/.521 with 37 homers and 33 doubles to go along with that strong defense.
From a payroll and luxury tax vantage point, there’s room for the Dodgers to fit Donaldson into the budget — particularly since the ever-active front office is likely to make some additional moves elsewhere on the roster. The Dodgers have $91.5MM committed to Clayton Kershaw, Turner, Kenley Jansen, A.J. Pollock, Joe Kelly and Kenta Maeda, and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects an additional $53MM worth of arbitration salaries — headlined by Cody Bellinger ($11.6MM), Joc Pederson ($8.5MM) and Corey Seager ($7.1MM). Including those arb projections and a slate of pre-arb players to round out the roster (plus the dead money owed to Yaisel Sierra and Hector Olivera), the Dodgers will check in around $165MM in actual payroll commitments with about $184MM against the luxury tax (using the estimate from Jason Martinez over at Roster Resource).
There’s not a ton of space between that $184MM mark and this year’s luxury tax limit of $208MM. Donaldson himself could command enough money on an annual basis to bridge that gap and put the Dodgers into penalty territory. But, the Dodgers have ample resources from which to deal in an effort to lower that number. Pederson, for instance, seems like a logical trade candidate with a relatively hefty arbitration projection and only a year of club control remaining. That’s all the more true if the Dodgers make a move that would slide Turner across the diamond to first base, as doing so would lessen the need for Bellinger to ever play first base. Bellinger, Pollock, Alex Verdugo, Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez give the Dodgers the outfield depth to explore such a move. (Hernandez or Taylor, too, could be conceivable trade assets.)
Whether Donaldson lands in L.A. or elsewhere, the Dodgers have enviable levels of defensive versatility and quite a few movable assets that are still affordable for most clubs. That should allow them to pursue value targets regardless of their defensive home, and it seemingly sets the stage for another active winter for Friedman and his staff.
NL West Notes: Friedman, Giants, Oracle Park, Padres
As the Padres unveil some sharp new uniforms, let’s look at some news from around the NL West…
- It has been close to a month since Andrew Friedman said he was close to finalizing a contract extension to remain as the Dodgers‘ president of baseball operations, though there hasn’t since been any word about a deal. There doesn’t appear to be any real reason for concern, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register tweets, as the two sides are “still dotting I’s and crossing T’s” on the new contract. Friedman has also been battling the flu for the past week.
- Construction has begun on Oracle Park’s new bullpens, which will result in a slightly moved-in portion of the outfield fence, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. Relievers for both the Giants and visiting clubs will no longer have to warm up in foul territory, as the new bullpens will be located behind the center field and right-center field fences. As a result, the area of fence that runs across center field into the “Triples Alley” triangle will be lowered by about a foot and moved four-to-six feet closer to home plate. The apex of the triangle will also be a bit shorter to home plate than its current 421-foot distance.
- Also from Schulman (Twitter links), he reports that as of Friday night, the Giants still hadn’t made a decision in their managerial search, though one should be coming relatively soon. Astros bench coach Joe Espada, Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro and former Phillies manager Gabe Kapler are reportedly the final three candidates in the running.
- The Padres had some interest in Rangers outfielder Nomar Mazara last summer, so Dennis Lin and Jamey Newberg of the Athletic (subscription required) tried to figure out a Mazara trade package that could help both clubs, in a lengthy exploration of how San Diego and Texas match up as trade partners. Some obvious links exist between the two franchises — Padres GM A.J. Preller and new manager Jayce Tingler both came to San Diego from the Texas organization, giving the Friars a lot of familiarity with Rangers players on both the MLB and minor league rosters. Lin and Newberg settle on a scenario that would see Mazara and right-hander Jonathan Hernandez go to the Rangers for Joey Lucchesi and catching prospect Blake Hunt.