Dodgers Showing Interest In Joba Chamberlain
The Dodgers, who recently learned that closer Kenley Jansen will be sidelined for eight to 12 weeks due to foot surgery, are showing interest in Joba Chamberlain, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter link). The team is also considering “other possibilities,” though Rosenthal doesn’t elaborate any further on that notion.
Speculation following the news of Jansen’s injury was that the Dodgers may jump into the top end of the free agent relief market — specifically meaning Francisco Rodriguez or Rafael Soriano. However, multiple reports quickly downplayed that speculation, suggesting that if anything, adding a middle relief arm would be more likely.
Chamberlain, 29, fits that description, although as I noted recently, one could make a case that he’s the best buy remaining on the free agent market. He’s certainly the youngest notable free agent left in free agency, and he enjoyed an overall solid year on the mound, pitching to a 3.57 ERA with 8.4 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 and a 53.2 percent ground-ball rate. It’s true that Chamberlain faded in the season’s second half, but much of that is attributable to a nearly seven-percent dip in his strand rate.
Chamberlain stranded better than 75 percent of baserunners in the season’s first half — a mark that’s well in line with his lifetime 74.6 percent clip — and saw that number dip to 69 percent in the second half. Strand rate can fluctuate in small samples but typically regresses toward a pitcher’s average rate, giving reason to believe that Chamberlain could see improved all-around results in 2015. (A move to the National League, of course, may be beneficial to his bottom-line numbers as well.)
Adding a reliever in the wake of Jansen’s injury may seem an overreaction to some, but the Dodgers had some bullpen depth issues even when Jansen was healthy. Beyond Jansen, the team projects to have Joel Peralta Brandon League, J.P. Howell and Paco Rodriguez in the ‘pen, with candidates for the final two spots including Juan Nicasio, Chris Hatcher and Pedro Baez. Non-roster invitees include David Aardsma, Sergio Santos, Erik Bedard and David Huff. While the makings of a solid bullpen certainly could be in that mix of players, man offer question marks in terms of health, inexperience and/or recent struggles at the big league level.
Quick Hits: Farrell, Victorino, Delabar, Dodgers, Young
The Red Sox have held preliminary discussions with manager John Farrell about a contract extension, Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com reports. Farrell’s deal is only guaranteed through 2015, though it comes with an additional club option as well. Boston hopes to “add length and security” in a new deal, per the report.
Here are some more items from around the game:
- Red Sox outfielder Shane Victorino sat down with WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford to discuss his recovery from back surgery, telling Bradford that he feels 100 percent and is as motivated as he’s ever been heading into Spring Training. Victorino disagrees with the notion that there’s a “competition” between himself and Mookie Betts, saying that, rather, he views it as two athletes pushing each other to be better. “I’ve been a big advocate of Mookie since Day 1,” said Victorino. “I learned from Day 1 that he’s a kid that wants to learn. My first day in my rehab assignment in Pawtucket, 15 minutes before the game he’s asking me questions in the most respectful way. From Day 1 I’ve been a big fan of that kid.”
- Right-hander Steve Delabar was disappointed not to be called up in September by the Blue Jays last year, writes John Lott of the National Post. The team felt that Delabar, a 2013 All-Star who battled knee injuries throughout the 2014 season, needed to rest. Those knee issues, coupled with a 2013 shoulder injury that prevented Delabar from fully engaging in his offseason weighted-ball program, contributed to a rough year in 2014, Lott writes. Delabar will be competing for one of three bullpen spots, and the fact that he has minor league options remaining could work against him if he isn’t sharp this spring.
- The Rays were excellent at unearthing quality relievers while under the leadership of now-Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney notes (Insider link). Friedman will face an immediate challenge in finding a replacement for outstanding closer Kenley Jansen, at least for the season’s early going. The market still contains some notable arms — free agents Francisco Rodriguez and Rafael Soriano, as well as trade candidate Jonathan Papelbon — but in some respects their availability only increases the stakes of getting the decision right. There are several possibilities for filling the closer role and the open pen slot, including a few recent acquisitions as well as younger arms (Pedro Baez, Yimi Garcia) who got a taste of the bigs last year and have impressed the new front office.
- MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently endeavored to identify potential landing spots for free agent righty Chris Young, and Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs contributes his own analysis on where Young’s notably flyball-prone propensities would best fit. Steve’s market analysis and Sullivan’s fit assessment concur in identifying the Rays as a match.
Cole Hamels Hopes To Be Traded To Contender
Phillies lefty Cole Hamels would prefer to be dealt to a contender, he tells Bob Nightengale of USA Today. “I want to go to a place where I can win again,” said Hamels. Though he made clear he was not demanding a trade, Hamels did indicate that he wants to play for a winning ballclub, saying “I know it’s not going to happen here.”
Hamels, 31, has represented perhaps the biggest unconsummated trade story of the offseason. With all major arms now signed off of the free agent market, and most teams presumably set to enter camp with their rotations intact, he may well be the only achievable prize left for clubs looking to add an impact starter.
According to Nightengale, the Phillies have continued to work hard to find an acceptable deal. The Padres have dangled a package of Hunter Renfroe and Austin Hedges, but that was not deemed sufficient by the Philadelphia front office. And the Phils have been unsuccessful in prying their key targets from teams like the Red Sox (who won’t include Blake Swihart), Dodgers (who haven’t offered any of the team’s top four prospects), and Cardinals (who have not agreed to move Carlos Martinez).
Hamels says that he will do his best to prepare for the season in the normal course, and gave no indication that he will do anything other than honor his contract, particularly with camp set to open. “Now that I’m here, I plan on being here for the next six weeks,” said Hamels, explaining that he had kept an eye on rumors over the winter. “I think it would be pretty chaotic if that’s not the case. But it’s out of my control.”
The veteran southpaw says that he crafted his no-trade list by identifying the nine teams he would most want to play for and leaving himself unprotected from those clubs. Only the Yankees and Rangers can deal for him without approval among American League teams, though Hamels notes that he would be “all ears” to the possibility of waiving his no-trade protection were the Red Sox to work out an agreement to acquire him. (He did not address the idea, advanced in some earlier reports, that he might seek inducements, such as a guarantee of his fifth-year option, from a team over which he possesses veto power.)
Latest On The Dodgers’ Bullpen
The Dodgers will be without Kenley Jansen through at least mid-April and possibly mid-May after their elite closer underwent surgery on his left foot this morning, but president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has indicated to MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick that the front office’s initial plan is to evaluate its in-house alternatives at closer (Twitter link).
Though the team may not ultimately take a reactionary approach, the Dodgers will indeed check in on free agents Francisco Rodriguez and Rafael Soriano, tweets Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times. However, Shaikin adds that he feels it’s more likely the Dodgers will add a middle relief option than a closer, considering Jansen figures to miss a maximum of six weeks (barring setbacks) and is suffering from an injury that is not related to his arm.
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports seems to agree with the thought that a reactionary move is unlikely, tweeting that it’d be a “shock” to see the team make a desperation move. Signing K-Rod would only happen if Rodriguez were to sign at the Dodgers’ price, Rosenthal notes, and that seems rather unlikely, considering the fact that Rodriguez and agent Scott Boras have reportedly been holding out for a two-year deal.
The Dodgers’ most experienced options to replace Jansen for the early portion of the season include J.P. Howell, Brandon League and Joel Peralta. Of that trio, only League comes with significant closing experience, though there’s no guarantee that that will play a significant factor in the decision. Paco Rodriguez, Juan Nicasio, Chris Hatcher and Pedro Baez represent 40-man options, while non-roster invitees David Aardsma and Sergio Santos have closing experience as well.
Kenley Jansen Out 8-12 Weeks Following Foot Surgery
The Dodgers have announced that standout closer Kenley Jansen has undergone foot surgery that comes with an eight- to 12-week timeline for recovery. Via Jon Weisman of Dodger Thoughts, the Dodgers’ PR team released the following statement:
“This morning at Cedars-Sinai in Los Angeles, Dodger pitcher Kenley Jansen underwent surgery to remove a growth from a bone in his left foot. This was discovered when Kenley reported discomfort while running last week. A subsequent X-Ray, MRI and CT scan showed the problem in the 5th metatarsal of his left foot. The surgery was performed by Drs. Earl Brien and David Thordarson under the direction of Dr. Neal ElAttrache.
Jansen will be on crutches for about 10 days and then a boot for 3-4 weeks. How he progresses during the rehab process will determine his return to competition, but it is expected to be approximately 8-12 weeks.”
An eight-week recovery would mean that Jansen is ready to go come April 14, whereas a 12-week recovery would keep him shelved through May 12. While the Dodgers possess a deep roster that many consider to be among the most talented in the game, the loss of Jansen for upwards of six weeks of the regular season would be a significant blow, particularly considering the fact that the bullpen is considered to be an area of weakness.
Joel Peralta, Paco Rodriguez, J.P. Howell and Brandon League all seem like locks to open the year in the Dodger ‘pen, while other candidates include Chris Hatcher, Pedro Baez and Juan Nicasio. The Dodgers have also brought in David Huff, Sergio Santos, Erik Bedard and, most recently, David Aardsma as non-roster invitees to Spring Training. Among that group, Santos and Aardsma do have closing experience, though neither seems likely to go from minor league signee to primary ninth-inning option for manager Don Mattingly.
The news of Jansen’s injury makes yesterday’s report that the Dodgers are seeking to add another bullpen arm more logical. Among the free agent options for president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, GM Farhan Zaidi and VP Josh Byrnes to choose from are Francisco Rodriguez, Rafael Soriano, Joba Chamberlain and Phil Coke. Jonathan Papelbon is also, of course, available on the trade market and was quite effective closing games for the Phillies last winter. For what it’s worth, Friedman should be plenty familiar with Soriano, as Soriano spent the 2010 season — arguably the best of his career — with the Rays.
Quick Hits: MiLB Deals, Announcements, Prospects
In a fascinating piece for FOX Sports, former big leaguer C.J. Nitkowski discusses his experiences looking for minor league deals. Nitkowski says that he often took it upon himself to look for the best opportunity, considering all aspects of the possibilities he could unearth to get the best shot at making it onto an active roster.
Here are some more notes from around the game:
- Agency Sosnick Cobbe Sports has announced the addition of agent and general counsel Adam Karon to its nameplate. The firm, which represents big leaguers such as Josh Johnson and Jay Bruce, will now be called Sosnick, Cobbe & Karon.
- In another announcement, the Phillies say they have promoted Michael Stiles to the position of executive VP and CEO. Per the release, Stiles will operate in the business and general administration realm. Stiles had already been said to be in charge of the day-to-day business affairs of the organization back when Pat Gillick had yet to have the interim label removed from his title of president.
- Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs has released his list of the game’s top 200 prospects, along with worthwhile breakdowns of the players that made it. Working from that list and applying valuations to the ranked players, colleague Dave Cameron presents a ranking of the most valuable farm systems in the game. Baseball Prospectus has also issued its own organizational rankings in recent days, so be sure to check those out as well. Both sites agree on the top four teams — the Cubs, Twins, Rangers, and Dodgers — though Fangraphs ranks them in that order while BP prefers the Los Angeles farm to that of Texas.
Latest On Hector Olivera, Yoan Moncada
We already took a peek in this morning at the Cuban market, but the news keeps coming. Here’s the latest on the two most touted position players available (or soon to be):
- Two executives who spoke with Hall of Fame journalist Peter Gammons indicated that the market for Hector Olivera looks rather strong (Twitter link). One predicted that Olivera would attain a $45MM to $50MM guarantee, while the other (from a team with interest) guessed that the 29-year-old infielder would reach the $65MM to $70MM range. We have heard reports of Olivera seeking that kind of guarantee, but it is interesting to see that some big league front office people see it as a likely outcome.
- We heard earlier today that the Dodgers continue to have interest in Olivera and would plan to use him at third if they end up signing him.
- Yoan Moncada remains most likely to sign with the Yankees or Dodgers, Ben Badler of Baseball America writes. The Padres are the third most likely landing spot, in Badler’s estimation, with the benefit of having not apparently made commitments that would need to be broken with next year’s July 2 class. Also still in the mix are the Red Sox and Tigers. Of course, the level of interest in the latter two teams, especially, remains unclear. In particular, Detroit is “not that serious” about going after Moncada, per Tony Paul of the Detroit News, who adds via Twitter that the team has not been in contact lately with Moncada’s camp.
- Notably, however, Badler adds that the Cubs and Rangers are “not out of the race” and are being aggressive in their pursuit of Moncada. Both teams would need to convince him to wait until July 2 to sign, which seems unlikely at this point.
Cuba Notes: Yoilan Serce, Olivera, Dodgers, D’Backs
There’s another middle infielder name to be aware of, per MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (Twitter links) and Ben Badler of Baseball America (via Twitter). Yoilan Serce, 27, will put on a showcase tomorrow in Florida. The second baseman owns an attractive .325/.395/.468 slash in his nine-year run in Cuba, but his power numbers dipped significantly over the past two seasons, with his slugging percentage coming in shy of .400 for the first time in his career. If you want an early look at Serce, check the second link to Sanchez’s Twitter account above to watch a few BP cuts.
Here are a few more notes on the thriving market for Cuban ballplayers:
- Should the Dodgers land infielder Hector Olivera, as some have suggested is likely, the plan would almost certainly be to use him at third base, Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi of FOX Sports report. Los Angeles would need to figure out a role or a trade for incumbent Juan Uribe in that scenario. The difficulty with stashing Uribe on the bench, of course, is that his value is tied up primarily in his glove at the hot corner. While he probably would have drawn some interest after a strong 2014, it is not clear whether there are many obvious suitors at this point.
- As others have suggested, and Rosenthal explains, there are good reasons to think that the teams that have already blown past their international bonus pool allocations will be the ones to make most of the significant investments in young Cuban talent over the coming months. Alternatively, teams that have yet to incur the significant penalties for going well over their spending allotment are waiting to see if they can land multiple players so as to make it worthwhile.
- The Diamondbacks, for instance, already signed Yoan Lopez and now have interest in second baseman Andy Ibanez, per the report. Sources also tell Rosenthal that Arizona is out of cash, however.
Dodgers Seek To Acquire Additional Reliever
The Dodgers are still working to pick up an arm for the bullpen, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. It is not clear from the report what sort of pitcher, or means of acquisition, Los Angeles is contemplating.
As things stand, the Dodgers already figure to open with a substantially re-worked pen. Among relievers with over twenty appearances for the team last year, only Kenley Jansen, J.P. Howell, and Brandon League are set to return. (Pedro Baez and Paco Rodriguez fell just shy of that arbitrary line.)
The team looks reasonably well-stocked on the right side, especially after adding David Aardsma and Sergio Santos on minor league pacts. Los Angeles had already dealt for Joel Peralta, Chris Hatcher, and Juan Nicasio earlier in the offseason. The same could probably be said with regard to lefties, as Howell is supplemented by a range of options including Rodriguez, David Huff, Adam Liberatore, and Ryan Buchter.
Of course, though there seems to be a fair amount of depth, there is almost always room for improvement in the bullpen. And it is worth noting that projections are not exactly in love with the present group. There are relatively few quality free agent arms remaining, though there are several with obvious appeal and the trade route is always possible.
Updates On The Top Cuban Free Agents
Yoan Moncada, Hector Olivera and Yadier Alvarez represent the top three names on the Cuban market right now, with Andy Ibanez ranking as perhaps the fourth-most intriguing option from the island. Both Moncada and Ibanez are eligible to sign at any time, while Olivera is still awaiting MLB’s clearance. Alvarez is the furthest from signing, as he’s yet to establish residency in another country, which must be completed before he can begin the process of getting cleared.
There’s been a quite a bit written on each of these four of late, so we’ll look at each on a case-by-case basis within this post. All information is courtesy of this excellent and comprehensive piece from MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez unless otherwise noted.
Yoan Moncada
Moncada has yet to receive a formal offer, Sanchez writes, but he’s worked out privately for the Cubs, D-backs, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Rangers, Rays, Tigers and Brewers, and there could be other private workouts to come. Some scouts are a bit skeptical of Moncada’s ability to hit from the right side of the plate, but the belief is that he won’t require a lengthy stint in the minors before being ready for the big leagues.
Sanchez notes that any team that signs Moncada would have until July 15 to pay the overage tax on what will be a historic bonus, and that bonus can be paid out in installments over the next three years. So, while shelling out the tax due to the league in one lump sum may be onerous for smaller-market clubs like the Padres, the timeline on that payment is at least pushed back a ways.
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports recently spoke to multiple executives regarding Moncada’s potential bonus, and while one estimated that the bonus alone could reach $50MM, others have expressed some skepticism at the numbers that have been thrown around. Rosenthal spoke to execs that are clearly on both ends of the Moncada spectrum, as one estimated a $30MM maximum bonus, with something in the range of $20MM being more likely. Of course, that would still shatter the current record, held by Yoan Lopez ($8.25MM).
Digging further into the Moncada market, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune spoke with Moncada’s agent, David Hastings, who iterated once again that he hopes to have Moncada in camp for Spring Training. Said Hastings of that goal: “Certainly that’s not all within our power, as we have to wait for teams to make a commitment, and we have to choose the team we think best suits my player. But hopefully we’re down to the final stages of the process and we can begin the contract phase.” Hastings added that he wants to give as many as teams as possible the opportunity to bid on his client, so the volume of private workouts Moncada has attended isn’t exactly surprising. Lin characterizes the Padres as a potentially “unlikely, if not improbable destination” for Moncada. The Dodgers and Yankees remain the favorites, per Sanchez.
Hector Olivera
The 29-year-old Olivera, who turns 30 in April, is said to be seeking a five- or six-year pact along the lines of the contracts signed by Yasmany Tomas (six years, $68.5MM with a year-four opt-out) and Rusney Castillo (seven years, $72.5MM), Sanchez writes. (Remember that Oliver’s age and professional experience make him exempt from international spending limitations.) A recent report by Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs depicts that as highly unlikely; McDaniel noted that concerns over Olivera’s age and a blood clot disorder (thrombosis) may limit his contract to three years, or potentially four, if multiple clubs become aggressive. He did concede that something around $10MM annually could be possible.
Sanchez writes that the 6’2″ Olivera is in the best shape of his career and has “wowed” in open showcases and private workouts, leading many to believe he could hit 15 to 20 homers annually.
Were Olivera younger, I’d be more inclined to believe that he could command something in the vicinity of the Tomas and Castillo deals, but I personally can’t envision that for a player of his age. Tomas will be younger than Olivera is right now when his six-year contract expires, and Castillo’s deal runs through just his age-32 season. A six-year pact for Olivera would carry through his age-35 campaign, so despite having seemingly impressive power for a second baseman (he can also play third), those goals seem far-fetched.
Lin notes that the Padres also have some interest in Olivera and may turn their sights his way if they’re unable to land Moncada. Padres pro scouting director/senior adviser Logan White attended Olivera’s final showcase in the Dominican Republic last week, per Lin.
Though Olivera isn’t yet cleared to sign, Sanchez hears that he could sign within 24 hours of being declared a free agent. The Mariners, Braves and Dodgers are the most likely landing spots for Olivera, per Sanchez, who also lists the Yankees and Padres as interested clubs. Clearly, Seattle is an odd fit, given the presence of Robinson Cano and the recently extended Kyle Seager. Perhaps, however, the Mariners would have interest in using Olivera in a corner outfield spot or in some form of super utility capacity.
Yadier Alvarez
One high-ranking NL official told Sanchez that Alvarez was the best 18-year-old pitcher he’s ever seen following a showcase in which he touched 98 mph on the radar gun and also showed a plus slider and above-average changeup. Scouts to whom Sanchez has spoke believe he could eventually become a No. 2 starter. One international scouting director also told Sanchez that given Alvarez’s age and lower asking price, he prefers the right-hander to Moncada.
The Dodgers, D-Backs, Rockies, Nationals, Blue Jays, Padres, A’s, Cardinals, Twins and Brewers are all interested, per Sanchez, with the D-Backs and Nationals as the likeliest destinations at the moment. However, Alvarez is still early on in the process, so those seem the most likely to change of any of Sanchez’s likely destinations.
Andy Ibanez
Ibanez, 21, has drawn comps to Omar Infante, Howie Kendrick, Miguel Cairo and Placido Polanco from scouts, Sanchez writes, although he’s probably a couple of years away from contributing in the Majors. As other reports have indicated, Ibanez’s tools don’t blow scouts away, but he does have Major League potential. Sanchez lists the Dodgers, Giants, Yankees, D-Backs, Brewers, Mariners, and Padres as interested parties, with the Yankees, Dodgers and Padres as the likeliest landing spots.