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Rosenthal On Kershaw, Fernandez, Davis

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Baseball is back, and that also means the return of Full Count from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  Let's dive in..

  • Clayton Kershaw's people and the Dodgers are still talking with the season underway, but no one really knows what's going on behind closed doors.  At the same time, no one should be surprised if Kershaw winds up being the first true $200MM pitcher.  Inking him for a total of ten years would keep him locked up through his age 34 season and even though that length sounds crazy, Felix Hernandez is signed through age 33 and Justin Verlander through age 36.  Rosenthal's guess is an eight-year, $200MM extension on top of the two years of control that he has left.
  • It was a surprise to some that the Marlins opted to start Jose Fernandez's service clock so early, but it turns out that they had little choice thanks to an unimpressive spring from Jacob Turnerand injuries elsewhere in the rotation.  Miami did their homework on other pitchers that started their careers at a young age, including Dwight Gooden, and ultimately decided that it was the right call.
  • Many are asking why the Rangers ever parted with Chris Davis, but its a deal that made sense at the time in 2011.  Mitch Moreland had the first base job and Davis had no place in the lineup, meaning that he needed a change of scenery.  Texas GM Jon Daniels acknowledged that Davis could develop into an impact offensive player at the time, and that's exactly what happened.

West Notes: Dodgers, White, Profar, Astros

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Earlier today, we recapped the Dodgers' winter.  Here's a look at the latest on the Dodgers and more out of the AL and NL West..

  • The Dodgers have a surplus of starting pitchers, leaving Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano, and Ted Lilly in limbo, writes Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times.  Neither Harang nor Capuano are pleased to be in a relief role, as both feel they're still starting pitchers.
  • Hernandez's colleague, Steve Dilbeck, writes that the unhappiness of the Dodgers' reluctant trio of relievers could eventually become a problem for the team. As Dilbeck notes, pitching in long relief roles will negatively impact the contracts that Capuano and Harang can receive in free agency this offseason.
  • Rangers prospect Jurickson Profar would like to follow in the footsteps of teammate Elvis Andrus, who recently agreed to an eight-year, $120MM extension, writes MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan.  With Ian Kinsler in the first year of a five-year extension and Andrus locked up through at least 2018, something will have to change before Profar can earn a spot in the everyday lineup.
  • Astros right-hander Alex White, acquired in this offseason's Wilton Lopez trade with the Rockies, will require Tommy John surgery, writes Brian T. Smith of the Houston Chronicle.

Zach Links contributed to this post.

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Dodgers

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Not surprisingly, the Dodgers issued the biggest contract of the offseason and spent more than any other club.

Major League Signings

International Signings

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

It's tough to say that the Dodgers, who finished fourth in the Majors with a 3.35 ERA last season, really needed pitching this offseason. They added plenty of it anyway, and there's no denying that both their rotation and bullpen are better off for having done so. The Dodgers entered 2012 with a rotation consisting of Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Ted Lilly, Chris Capuano and Aaron Harang. They're now set to run out Kershaw, international signee Hyun-Jin Ryu, Zack Greinke, Josh Beckett and Billingsley (once he's healthy, which should be mid-April).  Greinke Dodgers

The additions of Greinke, Ryu and Beckett (acquired via trade last summer) push both Capuano and Harang to bullpen duty — something neither man figures to be happy about following successful seasons in 2012 (particularly for Capuano). Lilly, currently on the disabled list, appears headed for the same fate. MLB.com's Ken Gurnick recently wrote about the trio, noting that each still prefers to be in the rotation. Barring an injury, that seems highly unlikely.

Greinke's deal broke Matt Cain's record for the richest contract ever awarded to a right-handed pitcher at the time of the signing, and it's still the largest new-money guarantee for a righty. As was the case with CC Sabathia's record-setting deal, Greinke is able to opt out of his contract and test the market again following the contract's third season. 

On the bullpen front, the Dodgers dished out a three-year, $22.5MM contract to Brandon League in a surprising move early in the offseason. It's not that League is a bad pitcher, but does the ACES client really merit the second-largest contract for a reliever this offseason? Some would argue it's a fair deal, but given his struggles against left-handed pitching it seems like an unnecessary risk to me. GM Ned Colletti also signed J.P. Howell to a reasonable one-year contract to help combat opposing lefties.

Questions Remaining

The Dodgers' 25-man roster is loaded with star power, but they need to produce. Adrian Gonzalez homered just three times for the Dodgers following last summer's trade. Hanley Ramirez showed improvement after leaving Miami, but he still wasn't close to the 2007-10 version of himself. No one is sure what to expect from Carl Crawford at this point following a disastrous 18-month stint in Boston, during which he was essentially a replacement-level player before undergoing Tommy John surgery. Beckett posted a strong 2.93 ERA with the Dodgers, but did so with far and away the weakest fastball of his career (90.9 mph).

The pitching staff should be among the game's best, but it will be interesting to see how Ryu transitions to the Major Leagues. He was an elite star and strikeout king in Korea, but he lacks the typical velocity one would expect from such pitchers in Major League Baseball. League's deal, while questionable, is a mere drop in the bucket for the Dodgers' seemingly limitless payroll, and Kenley Jansen is one heck of a security net.

The Dodgers could find themselves in the market for a bench bat at some point this season, as manager Don Mattingly has little in the way of offensive threats late in games (apologies to Nick Punto, Skip Schumaker and Jerry Hairston). Perhaps that's one area Colletti will target if he looks to move Capuano, Harang or Lilly.

Deal of Note

In spite of shelling out loads of money to Greinke, Ryu and League, perhaps the most curious decision made by the Dodgers this offseason was not to trade any of their excess starting pitching. Capuano racked up 198 1/3 innings of 3.72 ERA ball (3.95 FIP, 3.97 xFIP, 3.93 SIERA) and posted a stellar 3.00 K/BB ratio. He's under contract for just $6MM this year (plus a $1MM buyout on his mutual option) and surely would be appealing to other teams.

Harang, while not as solid and more expensive ($7MM plus $2MM buyout on a mutual option), posted a respectable season — a 3.61 ERA in 179 2/3 innings. Advanced metrics didn't like him as much (4.14 FIP, 4.95 xFIP, 4.87 SIERA), but he makes for an expensive long reliever.

One can only assume that once Billingsley and/or Lilly are healthy and ready to come off the disabled list, Colletti will begin exploring trades. Still, it's curious that he chose not to do so earlier this offseason when more trading partners would have been available.

Overview

The Dodgers probably have more starting pitching depth than any team in the Majors, and they also have a deep, talented bullpen with League, Jansen, Howell and Ronald Belisario. When Hanley Ramirez returns from his injury, their lineup will be stacked with big names and big question marks. The sheer amount of talent on this roster makes them look like a playoff contender. And, if Gonzalez, Crawford and Ramirez rediscover their All-Star form, the Dodgers could make a run at the best record in baseball.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Dodgers Release Kevin Gregg

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The Dodgers have released reliever Kevin Gregg, according to Ken Gurnick of MLB.com (on Twitter).  The right-hander hooked on with the Dodgers on a minor league deal back in February.

There was no room for Gregg on the big league team as the Dodgers' starter surplus leaves no vacancies in the bullpen.  The 34-year-old appeared in 40 games before being released last September, with a 4.74 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 4.9 BB/9, and a 47.8 % ground ball rate in 43 2/3 innings.

Reactions To Robinson Cano’s Agency Move

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If Robinson Cano's decision to leave agent Scott Boras was a shocker, then it's hard to find a word to describe his new choice for representation.  Rapper Jay-Z, who is a minority owner of the Brooklyn Nets, will be a part of Cano's team with his Roc Nation Sports marketing venture.  While the actual negotiating on Cano's next deal will be handled by the folks at CAA, it's a surprise to see Jay-Z leap from the pages of Hoops Rumors to MLBTR.  Here's more on Cano's big move..

  • It remains to be seen whether the change in representation will benefit the Yankees in their quest to re-sign Cano, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  Affiliating with Jay-Z’s new company infers that Cano wants to market himself outside of baseball and that would best be accomplished in New York or Los Angeles.  The Dodgers, of course, are expected to pursue Cano if he hits the open market.
  • Yankees execs are playing today's news low key, but they know that it improves their chances of retaining the second baseman, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post.  A person in the know tells Sherman (link) that that Cano's recent meet and greet with LeBron James was set up by Jay-Z as part of pitch to woo him away from Boras.
  • An ex-teammate of Cano believes that the decision to partner up with Jay-Z means that he'll be staying in pinstripes, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com.
  • It may be true that the move makes him more likely to stay in New York, but Rob Neyer of SB Nation cautions everyone not to make too much of it.  To Neyer, the change is about Cano looking to be known to a non-baseball audience.
  • A source close to Cano told John Harper of the New York Daily News (on Twitter) that Cano wants a big payday but also wants to stay a Yankee.  The 30-year-old didn't see that happening with Boras, who would want to hunt down the biggest contract possible.  The source stressed that Cano isn't comfortable with so much attention on his impending free agency and wants to get a deal done "sooner rather than later'' (link).
  • Barring something unexpected, Cano is going to be a Yankee for a long time, maybe for the rest of his career, writes Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports.  Meanwhile, the move could be a game changer in the agency game.  While Boras has lost some big names in recent years and got less than expected for Kyle Lohse and Michael Bourn this offseason, he is the Jay-Z of baseball agents, Passan writes.
  • CAA's Brodie Van Wagenen, who will serve as the direct representative for Cano says that his aim is to keep Cano's focus on baseball, tweets Bryan Hoch of MLB.com.  "Our mandate is to minimize his distractions while helping him achieve his goals on and off the field."
  • Cano declined to speak when asked if he would comment on Boras reportedly being caught unaware of his decision to switch agencies, Hoch writes.
  • Buster Olney of ESPN.com (on Twitter) sees Cano working out an extension with the Yankees after the agency switch.  

Quick Hits: Dodgers, Reds, Orioles

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The Dodgers received an epic performance from their young ace today, as Clayton Kershaw hit his first career home run for what turned out to be the game-winning run. Oh, and he also tossed a complete-game, 4-hit, 94-pitch shutout. Will L.A. regret not completing an extension over the spring if the lefty sticks with his stated intention not to negotiate during the season?

  • Shortstop Justin Sellers went from darkhorse roster candidate to Opening Day starter, and now figures to see a lot of action, writes Scott Miller of CBS Sports. Manager Don Mattingly seems inclined to prioritize defense at short until Hanley Ramirez returns: "We want to be able to catch it. And we're willing to sacrifice offense to do it."
  • In spite of their massive payroll, the Dodgers will be relying on several "unheralded" players in addition to Sellers, writes Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times. Luis Cruz, Mark Ellis, and A.J. Ellis all occupy key positions on the field and in the locker room, even if they aren't in line for the lion's share of the team's salary and press.
  • The Reds' Opening Day lineup reveals the club's roster stability, writes David Jablonski of the Dayton Daily News. Of today's starters, only third baseman Todd Frazier and outfielder Shin-Soo Choo were not penciled into the lineup card this time last year.
  • Unfortunately for the Reds, the club already needs to replace one of those returning starters for some time. Outfielder Ryan Ludwick suffered a dislocated right shoulder during today's game, reports Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. Ludwick re-signed with Cincinnati this past offseason, agreeing to a two-year, $15MM deal (with a mutual option for 2015) after a strong 2012 campaign. Chris Heisey replaced Ludwick after the injury. While Heisey went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts, he did make this nice grab and prevented a go-ahead, inside-the-park home run for Peter Bourjos by backing up the center fielder Choo.
  • The Orioles are deeper this year than last, and Executive VP of Operations Dan Duquette feels his rotation in particular is deep enough that the team "could probably make a trade," writes Brittany Ghiroli of MLB.com. As he now heads a "more established club," Duquette aims "to create some urgency for today" while also working to ensure "a steady stream of players coming up through the Minors." 

West Notes: Dodgers, Wells, Athletics, Angels

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The nine top names to watch in Los Angeles baseball in 2013 include Chase Headley and Robinson Cano, argues Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. Headley could be an in-season trade target for the Dodgers, and Cano will likely be connected to the Dodgers as a free agent next winter. Shaikin also suggests that if the Dodgers don't do well in 2013, they could try to hire Rays GM Andrew Friedman. Here are more notes from the West divisions.

  • The Mariners' decision to keep Jason Bay and designate Casper Wells for assignment doesn't make sense, Jeff Sullivan of USS Mariner says. Sullivan notes that Wells is younger, had four years of team control remaining, and has recently been the better player on both offense and defense — and the Mariners will likely lose him for virtually nothing. "Wells, probably, is going to end up getting traded to a team with a thin outfield in exchange for a non-roster barely-prospect," Sullivan says. Sullivan also points out that Wells was one of the key players in the Doug Fister deal with the Tigers. The Tigers already looked like clear winners in that trade, but it's even clearer now.
  • The Giants' signing of Buster Posey to an eight-year, $159MM contract demonstrates the inequities between the Giants and the Athletics, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle writes. The Giants have opposed the Athletics' move to San Jose. "It's more than mildly ironic that the Giants granted a single player a contract that exceeds the A's entire payroll by a factor of three," says San Jose City Councilman Sam Liccardo.
  • The trade of Vernon Wells to the Yankees gave the Angels additional payroll flexibility, Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com writes. The deal leaves the Angels about $6MM under the luxury tax threshold, Gonzalez reports.

Quick Hits: Verlander, Wheeler, Gregg

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Tigers manager Jim Leyland is excited about Justin Verlander's extension and the possibility it could keep Verlander in Detroit his entire career, MLB.com's Adam Berry reports. "I think it was obviously a great situation for him. I think it's a great situation for the organization. I think it's a great situation for the fans," says Leyland. "He's been with the Tigers for going on his eighth year, [and he could stay] conceivably 15 years or maybe 16. That's pretty much a whole career. I think that's got a nice ring to it."

  • The Mets should consider promoting top pitching prospect Zack Wheeler, and should soon begin thinking about signing him to a long-term deal, David Lennon of Newsday.com argues. Promoting Wheeler to start the season, rather than delaying his service-time clock by starting him off in the minors, might show that the Mets are taking the 2013 season seriously, Lennon suggests. Once Wheeler is in the majors, Lennon argues that the landscape of the game (with teams signing their young stars left and right) suggests that the Mets will consider signing Wheeler long-term.
  • Kevin Gregg of the Dodgers is still bothered that he didn't receive a major-league contract this offseason, ESPN Los Angeles' Mark Saxon reports. Gregg posted a 4.95 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and 4.9 BB/9 for the Orioles in 2012. "The way last year ended, the way the offseason unfolded, you're not a competitor if you don't have a little fire to show your abilities," says Gregg. Gregg has gotten good results this spring, but the Dodgers have a very crowded pitching staff, and might not have space for him.

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers Discussing Deal

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Pitcher Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers are discussing a contract extension, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. The news that Kershaw and the Dodgers are talking about a deal comes on the heels of big new contract extensions for Justin Verlander and Buster Posey.

Heyman notes that Kershaw could be in an even better negotiating position than Verlander was, given that he is only 25 and the Dodgers have shown a willingness to spend freely. Kershaw is slated to become a free agent after the 2014 season. The only downside for Kershaw, Heyman notes, is that he is slated to make $11MM this year and is arbitration-eligible in 2014, whereas Verlander was already under contract for $40MM through 2014 before his extension. Verlander's deal made him the highest-paid pitcher in MLB history. Depending on the length of the extension, Kershaw would be likely to exceed Verlander's $180MM deal.

West Notes: Kershaw, Dodgers, Young, Wells, Booty

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Commissioner Bud Selig weighed in on the Houston Astros' strategy and payroll, saying that the organization has "chosen the path with some very qualfied people" and that he "think[s] they're doing it the right way." ESPN's Buster Olney writes (Insider sub. req'd) that baseball should be more cautious in endorsing what he characterizes as a "strategy to lose." Of course, it remains to be seen how the major league club will compete this season in what figures to be a tough AL West. 

  • With today's news of a big extension for Adam Wainwright, attention could turn to another ace who could be extended: the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw. According to Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times, however, Kershaw does not want to keep negotiations open past spring training and is staying quiet as to whether there has been any progress. Hernandez also notes that Kershaw's agents, Casey Close and J.D. Smart, visited Dodger camp a week ago but were not not actively discussing a Kershaw extension. 
  • The time is now for the Dodgers to decide what to do with their excess starting pitching, writes Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles TImes. Aaron Harang, for one, may have thrown his last pitch in Dodger blue. While Harang's tepid spring is a deterrent, Dilbeck notes that the righty threw well last season and should draw suitors. 
  • Chris Young could sign with the Angels, tweets Andy Martino of the New York Daily News, who also notes that the Mets are highly unlikely to sign him. The righty is back on the market after opting out of his contract with the Nationals.
  • Mariners manager Eric Wedge says a decision between outfielders Casper Wells and Jason Bay will be made soon, leading Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times to posit that Wells could already have been put on waivers. If Wells is indeed put on waivers, he would be an option for the Phillies, tweets Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer.
  • The Diamondbacks have released Josh Booty, who earned a non-roster invite as the winner of "The Next Knuckler," the team announced on Twitter. The former QB was originally drafted by the Marlins fifth overall back in 1994 before he retired to pursue football, which meant that he was still technically under Marlins control when he joined Arizona for the spring.
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