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Marlins’ Trevor Richards, Sergio Romo Generating Interest

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Marlins right-handers Trevor Richards and Sergio Romo are drawing interest in advance of the trade deadline, according to Joe Frisaro of MLB.com.

Neither player looks like a substantial difference-maker, but there is appeal in both cases. The 26-year-old Richards’ main selling point is likely his affordable control. He’s on a minimum salary now, won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2021, and isn’t on track to reach free agency until the conclusion of the 2024 season. The battle-tested Romo, 36, could give a contender a credible late-game option down the stretch, and he presumably wouldn’t cost much to acquire.

An undrafted free agent in 2013, Richards has emerged as a back-end starter for the Marlins since he debuted in the majors last season. Dating back to then, Richards has pitched to a 4.51 ERA/4.39 FIP with 8.8 K/9 and 3.94 BB/9 in 235 1/3 innings and 45 starts. While the Marlins are open to trading starters if doing so would help improve their position player group, they may be hard-pressed to get a desirable, major league-ready hitter back for Richards – who has been useful but far from spectacular.

Romo, previously with the Giants, Dodgers and Rays, inked a $2.5MM guarantee with the Marlins in free agency last winter. At the time, non-contending Miami was likely hoping Romo would wind up bringing something back in an in-season trade. With a 3.68 ERA/3.96 FIP, 7.85 K/9 against 3.19 BB/9 and 16 saves on 17 chances in 36 2/3 innings, perhaps the three-time world champion has performed well enough to end the season with a playoff-caliber team.

As has been the case over the past few years, Romo has limited damaging contact despite velocity that only tops out in the 85 to 86 mph range. Romo ranks in the league’s 86th percentile or better in exit velocity, expected weighted on-base average against (.273, not far from a .280 actual wOBA), expected batting average against and hard-hit rate, per Statcast. His primary pitch – a slider – has held opposing hitters to a matching and minuscule .211 xwOBA and wOBA. It’s the second-best slider in the game among relievers, according to FanGraphs’ linear weights. Judging by teams’ interest in Romo, his go-to pitch just might factor into this year’s playoff race.

Marlins Activate Martin Prado, Place JT Riddle On IL

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The Marlins have announced that they have activated veteran infielder Martin Prado from the 10-day injured list. He’ll take the place of utilityman JT Riddle, who’s headed for his own IL stint with a forearm strain.

Prado, 35, is back in action in time to feature as a trade candidate — in theory. Trouble is, his nosedive at the plate has shown no signs of abating over the past three years. And his latest hamstring injury is the latest in a string of leg maladies.

When the Fish inked Prado to a questionable three-year extension late in the 2016 season, he was putting the finishing touches on a solid campaign and was still at least carrying a recent track record of slightly above-average offensive work. Three years and $40MM seemed like a rather heavy commitment, particularly for an organization with the outlook of the Miami club, but he’d have been a reasonably sought-after free agent had he not re-upped with the Marlins.

That deal has turned out to be a complete bust in spite of the best efforts of the respected veteran. Prado has played in only 142 games, slashing a combined .244/.277/.319. While he’s still a solid defender, Prado is a negative on the basepaths and has in the aggregate played at or below replacement level.

Perhaps it’s still possible to squint and imagine a contender taking a flier on Prado as a 25th man who’d contribute in the clubhouse. He has been on a tear on his rehab assignment; if he shows up to the majors looking particularly spry, there’s an outside chance at a trade. Even then, it’s tough to imagine the Marlins shedding any noticeable amount of salary or recouping anything in the way of prospect value in return.

Marlins’ Bullpen Reportedly Earning Attention Of Scouts

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According to a report from MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, several scouts were in attendance for Saturday night’s game between the Marlins and Mets, presumably with an interest in observing several Miami relievers.

Though Frisaro did underscore that the participation of New York starter Noah Syndergaard in tonight’s affair likely had much to do with the heavy scouting presence at Marlins Park, he also proposed that a few interesting Miami arms could be of particular interest to competitive clubs.

Entering tonight’s game, the Marlins’ bullpen had posted a collective 2.25 ERA since June 1st, which was tied with the Braves and A’s for the third-best mark in the Majors in that span. It’s difficult to say which of Miami’s bullpen pieces would be most attractive to an acquiring club, but Frisaro points to Austin Brice, Jarlin Garcia and Nick Anderson as possible trade chips.

It is conceivable that an in-the-race team could buy into the 1.88 ERA of the 27-year-old Brice,  but only if they were to overlook his slightly less pristine underlying marks, which include a 4.39 xFIP. Jarlin Garcia could make for a solid LOOGY candidate for most teams, but his 6.30 career K/9 indicates that he isn’t the type of arm that typically elicits a ton of trade value.

Anderson could make for the club’s most appealing late-inning trade bait. The 6’5 righty is generating a prodigious number of strikeouts in his first big league campaign (13.85 K/9), turning to a 95-mph fastball in addition to a heavily used curveball. After giving up a decisive two-run dinger to Robinson Cano tonight, Anderson’s ERA sits at 4.46, but FIP (2.99) thinks much more highly of his 2019 work. The 29-year-old, whom Miami acquired from Minnesota this past November, is controllable for five years beyond the 2019 season.

Marlins To Sign J.J. Bleday, Kameron Misner

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JULY 12, 3:58pm: Misner has a buzzer-beating, $2.115MM deal, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (Twitter links). Mokma will forego his commitment to Michigan State by inking a $557K agreement.

3:18pm: Misner is undergoing a physical, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets, though it’s not clear yet that the sides are otherwise fully squared away on a deal. Heyman adds that 12th-rounder Chris Mokma will agree to terms with the Fish if they can get Misner under contract.

9:20am: Bleday’s bonus will check in at $6,670,000, Jim Callis of MLB.com tweets. That checks in over his slot value by a narrow margin of $6,000.

JULY 10, 8:25pm: In addition to their deal with Bleday, the Marlins are close to an agreement with No. 35 pick Kameron Misner, tweets Craig Mish of SiriusXM. Before reaching a deal with Misner, Miami first needed to finish negotiations with Bleday so they could know how much it had left to offer Misner. While no deal is quite in place yet, Mish adds that Misner has already decided he will not return to Missouri.

In his junior season at Mizzou, Misner hit .286/.440/.481 with 10 homers, 10 doubles and 20 stolen bases (in 21 tries). Misner rated as the draft’s No. 26 prospect at BA, No. 30 at MLB.com, No. 31 at Fangraphs and No. 34 at ESPN. He’s regarded as a plus runner who can handle any outfield spot, and he draws praise for a potentially average hit tool and above-average pop. Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com call him a potential 20-20 threat if his development progresses.

7:22pm: The Marlins have agreed to terms with No. 4 overall draft selection J.J. Bleday, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The star Vanderbilt outfielder was widely considered a top-five talent and one of the best power bats in the draft. His slot comes with a $6.66MM value.

Bleday, 21, will add a high-end offensive prospect to an improving Marlins system that is currently deeper in pitching than in bats. In his final season at Vanderbilt, Bleday posted a ridiculous .350/.464/.717 slash with 26 home runs, 13 doubles and a triple in 320 plate appearances — all while walking more often (54) than he struck out (53).

Prior to draft day, Bleday checked in as this year’s No. 3 prospect, per Fangraphs, where Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen praised the Division-I home run leader’s power and improved approach at the plate. MLB.com tabbed Bleday as the No. 5 prospect in the draft and gave him plus grades on his arm strength and raw power, in addition to an above-average hit tool. Baseball America ranked him sixth and, like other reports noted that he profiles best as a prototypical right fielder (albeit one who can handle center “in a pinch). ESPN’s Keith Law ranked him seventh, noting an unorthodox swing but a classic power-hitting right fielder’s profile with a history of performance.

Marlins Have Received Interest In Starlin Castro

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The Marlins are firmly in seller mode as the deadline approaches, and one of the veterans who has received some interest from rival teams is Starlin Castro, as the Miami Herald’s Jordan McPherson reports that the Fish have received some calls about the second baseman.

Castro has been a trade candidate since the moment he first came to Miami, dealt in December 2017 (mostly as salary offset) as part of the blockbuster deal that sent Giancarlo Stanton to the Yankees.  The rebuilding Marlins didn’t have much use for a veteran with a pricey contract, though their efforts to deal Castro over the last year and a half haven’t been successful.  If nothing else, that time diminished the money attached to Castro’s services — he is still owed roughly $4.7MM of his $11MM salary for the 2019 season, and his $16MM club option for 2020 can be bought out for $1MM.

It’s easy to imagine Miami eating virtually all of that remaining salary just for the sake of accommodating a move, since Castro’s trade value is minimal.  As MLBTR’s Connor Byrne recently outlined, Castro is suffering through the worst season of his ten-year career, hitting only .245/.272/.336 through 371 plate appearances and some of the least-impressive advanced metrics (via Statcast) of any player in baseball.

It’s probably safe to assume that interested teams are looking at Castro just as infield depth for the stretch run, and perhaps hoping that getting away from the last-place Marlins and into a pennant race would help jolt Castro back into something resembling his old self.  Conversely, a team keen on adding Castro may not feel the need to give up even a minor prospect to acquire his services when it’s quite possible the Marlins could just release him after July 31 anyway.  Marlins prospect Isan Diaz is tearing up Triple-A pitching and pushing hard for MLB playing time at second base, so if a trade partner for Castro can’t be found, the Marlins could release Castro and end up eating his salary anyway (with a new team then responsible for a prorated league minimum salary if they were to sign Castro).

An Underrated Waiver Pickup

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The Marlins finally parted with catcher J.T. Realmuto last offseason, making him the latest household name to exit Miami via trade. Other than that, the rebuilding club unsurprisingly engaged in a quiet winter. The Marlins handed out just two guaranteed contracts, signing veteran Band-Aids Neil Walker and Sergio Romo for a combined $4.5MM, and made the rest of their acquisitions via low-key trades, minor league signings and waiver claims. Three months into the season, one of those waiver pickups has been a steal for Miami.

The Marlins claimed reliever Austin Brice from the fellow non-contending Orioles on Feb. 4. The transaction reunited the right-handed Brice and the organization he started his career with when it chose him in the ninth round of the 2010 draft. Brice stuck with the Marlins for several years and made his major league debut with them in 2016, but they traded him and righty starter Luis Castillo to the Reds in the ensuing offseason as part of a deal for RHP Dan Straily. Considering the emergence of Castillo as a front-line starter in Cincinnati, not to mention that Straily lasted a meager two years in Miami, the trade obviously hasn’t worked out for the Marlins. However, thanks to their reunion with Brice, it looks a tad less unfortunate (albeit still highly regrettable).

Brice, who turned 27 last month, didn’t have the makings of a particularly interesting pickup for the Marlins when they brought him back. He was coming off a two-year stretch with the Reds in which he pitched to a 5.40 ERA with 7.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 70 innings. Unimpressed, the Reds decided early in the offseason to cut the cord on Brice. He then had brief winter stints with the Angels and Orioles after each of those teams claimed him off waivers, finally finding a home with the Marlins about two months before the season began.

Just past the halfway point of the 2019 campaign, Brice has come to the fore as one of the most productive waiver additions of the offseason. Through 37 1/3 innings, which ties him for first among Marlins relievers, Brice has logged a sterling 1.93 ERA. Some of his other numbers – including 8.68 K/9 against 3.38 BB/9 and a 3.84 FIP – don’t inspire nearly as much confidence. However, Brice ranks much closer to the top of the majors than the bottom in weighted on-base average/expected wOBA against (.253/.276). He has also been a bear to deal with for both righties and lefties, having limited the former to a .237 wOBA and the latter to a .274 mark.

Brice’s success has come with a change in repertoire. When the Marlins brought Brice back in the winter, president of baseball operations Michael Hill called him a “severe sinkerball pitcher.” Compared to 2018, though, Brice’s sinker usage has, well, sunk. He utilized the pitch 48.5 percent of the time in his Cincinnati swan song, but it’s down to 22.4 in his return to Miami. Brice is now relying primarily on his curveball, which is up to 44.2 percent usage after sitting at 28.1 a year ago and ranks in the league’s 96th percentile in spin rate. He has also leaned heavily on his four-seamer, having thrown it almost 9 percent more than he did last season (28.5 to 19.8).

The switch in pitch mix has yielded encouraging results for Brice, whose curve (.219 wOBA/.253 xwOBA) and four-seamer (.173/.133) have stymied opposing hitters. Turning to those pitches more has helped Brice rank well above average in hard-hit rate against (65th percentile), exit velocity (68th), xwOBA (84th), expected batting average (84th) and expected slugging percentage (93rd).

Nine years after they drafted him, the Marlins may have stumbled on a useful multiyear piece in Brice, who’s not slated to reach arbitration until after 2020 or free agency until the end of the 2023 campaign. It’s a welcome bit of good news for a team which owns the NL’s worst record, 33-55, and hasn’t had many causes for celebration this season.

The Marlins’ Sneaky Trade Chip

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Apart from a few scattered signs of promise dotting the South Florida tank, it’s been another year to forget for the Fish. The Marlins currently sit at 32-54, 19.5 games back of the Braves in a tough NL East, a mark that all but assures the club of a decade-long losing-season sweep.

The club’s heaviest assets of yesteryear have all been pawned, leaving an assortment of pre-arb castoffs, up-and-comers, and journeymen hangers-on. Still, it’s baseball, and where playing time awaits, new assets will emerge. The club has steadily rebuilt its once-barren farm, stolen a couple names from regimes with which new club personnel were familiar, and allowed previously cast aside young talent to flourish. Even Zac Gallen and Sandy Alcantara, the bulk of the oft-pilloried return for Marcell Ozuna, have spread their wings this season, with the former vaulting into top-100 territory and the latter notching the club’s lone ’19 All-Star appearance despite shaky peripherals.

Can the club add to its array of projected big leaguers on the farm?  Many of its top performers this season – Brian Anderson, Pablo Lopez, Garrett Cooper, Caleb Smith – figure to comprise the core of Miami’s next contending club, and are thus unlikely to move. Veterans Martin Prado, Starlin Castro, Wei-Yin Chen, Adam Conley, and Sergio Romo have done little to boost their respective values, and high-octane hurler Jose Urena hasn’t take the step forward the team hoped. But one former throw-in from a long-ago deal has remained steady as always.

Enter Miguel Rojas. Acquired in the head-scratching deal that sent Andrew Heaney, Kiké Hernandez, and Austin Barnes to LA in exchange for Dee Gordon and an aging Dan Haren, Rojas was used sparingly in his first couple seasons with the club. He opened eyes with a 1.4 fWAR performance in just 90 games in 2017, pairing strong contact ability with above-average defense at multiple positions. The gutting of 2018’s roster left near-full-time opportunity at shortstop for Rojas, a position at which he sparkled defensively, notching 10 defensive runs saved in nearly half the innings of NL-leader Nick Ahmed, who posted 21, and a UZR/150 that ranked among MLB’s best.

The 30-year-old Venezuelan has vaulted up a notch this season, pacing the big leagues in both UZR/150 and the range component of the stat, with a striking 13 Defensive Runs Saved to boot. With Andrelton Simmons on the shelf, and Brandon Crawford looking a shell of his former shelf all across the diamond, Rojas has staked a legitimate claim to the league’s best defender at the most difficult defensive position on the field.

His bat, too, has taken off: his 97 wRC+ has the one-time utility man on pace for nearly 3.0 fWAR this season, an easily above-average mark, and his second such offensive campaign in three years. His hard-hit rate has jumped to a career-high 35.5%, and the righty’s chasing pitches outside the zone at a career-low pace. Rojas’ 12.8 K% (paired with a respectable 7.8% BB) ranks among the league’s lowest.

In short, he’s as solid as they come. But where will he fit? Unlike other positions – catcher, second base – shortstop is rife with talent, and nearly every contender has a good one. Milwaukee, who’s seen Orlando Arcia reprise his poor performance from a season ago, could be a fit, as might Tampa or perhaps Pittsburgh or Cincinnati. Washington could again shift its shortstop, Trea Turner, around the diamond – he’s been awful defensively in limited action so far this season – as could the Cubs, whose second-base hole might simply be plugged by the displacement of one-time incumbent Javier Baez.

Given the propensity of new-wave front offices to acquire pieces without a clear fit, it stands to reason that Rojas’ market may be wider than it first appears. He’s arbitration-eligible for the final time in 2020, so Miami’s return won’t be negligible; the one-time throw-in may soon find himself a centerpiece.

Latest On Marlins’ Draft Signing Efforts

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After a few recent deals hit the books, the Marlins were left with the two top remaining unsigned players from June’s Rule 4 amateur draft. Fourth overall choice J.J. Bleday and #35 draftee Kameron Misner have yet to agree to terms, though it seems there’s general optimism — for the former, in particular — that they’ll end up signing on.

The deadline for reaching agreement is July 12th at 5pm eastern. It’s not at all infrequent to see a few nail-biters, though this signing season has been notably free of drama. After Bleday and Misner, the loftiest selection that isn’t yet in the books is 67th overall pick Josh Smith (Yankees).

President of baseball operations Michael Hill did not express any concern with the two key draft pieces, both of whom were star collegiate outfielders. “We’re encouraged with both, and hope to get it taken care of and get them out as soon as possible,” he tells MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro.

In the case of Bleday, who just wrapped up a championship run with Vanderbilt, it seems it may only be a matter of time before he’s under contract. Frisaro tweets that a deal is “getting closer to being finalized” while MLB Network’s Jon Heyman says in his own tweet that the sides are “moving toward a deal.” Both indicate that the bonus is likely to be right near the slot value of $6,664,000.

As for Misner, a competitive balance round A selection who hails from the University of Missouri, there seems at least to be a bit more uncertainty. Heyman says that the Marlins are “believed” to have made an at-slot offer of $2,095,800. Misner and his reps may be running the clock in hopes of commanding more, but it’s not clear whether that’s even a realistic possibility. There’s no indication at present that he’d consider returning to school; as Frisaro rightly notes, that’s a risky option for a college junior.

By my count, the Marlins have spent to the limits of their existing bonus pool. They saved on several players but went over slot for second-rounder Nasim Nunez and fifth-rounder Evan Fitterer. Teams can exceed the allocated values by 5% without sacrificing any future draft picks; tallying the MLB.com tracker bonuses and adding that padding to the already signed players puts the Fish at about $7K shy of the line. In other words: there’s no room to pay one of their two remaining unsigned players more than their slot value unless the other takes less.

Yangervis Solarte Will Reportedly Sign With Japanese Team

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Veteran infielder/outfielder Yangervis Solarte is less than a month into his Marlins tenure, but it appears it’s already over. Solarte is set to sign with a Japanese team, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com reports. The minor league deal Solarte inked with the Marlins on June 7 gives him the right to pursue opportunities in Asia, per Frisaro.

Solarte caught on with Miami a couple weeks after San Francisco released him. The switch-hitting Solarte wound up slashing .314/.345/.451 (93 wRC+) with one home run in 55 plate appearances as a member of the Marlins’ Triple-A team in New Orleans.

Now 31 years old, Solarte has appeared in the majors with four different clubs – the Yankees, Padres and Blue Jays prior to the Giants – since debuting in 2014. While Solarte was a useful offensive contributor earlier in his career, his numbers have cratered over the past couple seasons. He struggled enough with the Jays in 2018 for them to non-tender him, and even though Solarte parlayed a minors pact with the Giants into a season-opening roster spot this year, his production worsened.

Dating back to 2018, Solarte has batted a dreary .224/.273/.370 (72 wRC+) with 18 home runs and minus-1.6 fWAR in 584 major league attempts. It now appears if Solarte’s ever going to resurface in the bigs, he’ll first have to revive his career in Japan.

Starlin Castro’s Nightmare Season

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The Marlins acquired second baseman Starlin Castro from the Yankees entering 2018 as a way to balance out money in a blockbuster trade. Miami received Castro in its return for then-reigning NL MVP outfielder Giancarlo Stanton, whose onerous contract largely exited the Marlins’ books. When he arrived in South Florida, Castro’s pact included a remaining two years and approximately $22MM in guarantees, far from an unreasonable total considering his track record at that point. Still, the rebuilding Marlins couldn’t find a taker throughout 2018 for Castro, who posted yet another average season in a career full of them.

Even though he came into this year as a four-time All-Star and a 1,445-hit man, Castro hasn’t been a spectacular major leaguer. Also a former Cub, the 29-year-old slashed .281/.321/.411 (97 wRC+) from 2010-18 and was coming off four straight seasons with 2.3 fWAR or fewer.

Three months into 2019, the Marlins would surely love another year of Castro’s typically decent production. They’ve gotten anything but that so far. Castro’s stuck in the worst season of his career with minus-1.2 fWAR – good for last among qualified major league hitters – through 345 plate appearances. With a .230/.258/.313 line, Castro’s 51 wRC+ is also the lowest in the game. It basically suggests the 2019 version of Castro has been half the hitter he was in the prior nine seasons.

While Castro continued to look like a potential trade candidate at the outset of the season, that’s probably out the window now. Furthermore, there’s no chance he’ll stay off the free-agent market in the offseason. Castro’s employer will have a chance to pick up a $16MM club option over the winter, but the team’s sure to buy him out for $1MM instead, officially concluding the seven-year, $60MM extension he signed as a potential Cubs cornerstone in August 2012.

A look beyond Castro’s woeful bottom-line production this year shows this isn’t just a case of poor luck. A solid batting average has long driven Castro’s offensive numbers, but his regular BA and expected average (.243) are horrific. Similarly, Castro ranks near the bottom of the sport in expected weighted on-base average (8th percentile), expected slugging percentage (15th percentile), average exit velocity (46th percentile) and hard-hit percentage (46th percentile), per Statcast.

Never one to draw many walks or amass a lot of strikeouts, Castro’s numbers in those categories look fairly normal. He has collected walks at a 4 percent clip, down 1.1 percent from his lifetime mark, and struck out 17.3 percent of the time – not far from a 16.8 career mean. On the other hand, Castro’s .319 batting average on balls in play is down to a meager .262 this year, in part because of the less impactful contact he has made. Power has never really been a hallmark for Castro, though his .083 ISO is easily his lowest in several years and ranks third from last in baseball.

For the most part, the right-handed Castro has performed respectably against same-handed and lefty pitchers alike, which is a key reason why he has been a regular for so long. However, righties are now stymieing Castro, who has put forth a horrendous 35 wRC+ against them this year. Back in 2017, when Castro logged an overall 109 wRC+ to end his Yankees stint, he showed at least some power against righties over the middle and inner half of the plate. That power has now completely evaporated, however.

Even though Castro has never possessed much pop, what he used to have help make him a credible major league hitter. Now, as Castro’s power has disappeared, so has his usefulness as a player. Perhaps it’ll come back at some point, but the way Castro’s trending, he’s heading toward a cold winter in free agency.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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