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Offseason In Review: Miami Marlins

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After underachieving in 2021, Kim Ng’s Marlins entered the offseason looking to bolster a moribund offense to complement perhaps the finest collection of young pitching talent in the game. And while the Fish brought in some outfield pop that could push them into contention for a spot in the expanded playoffs, they’re also contending with the loss of their biggest name — albeit not one who would have contributed on the field.

Major League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • Sandy Alcantara, RHP: Five years, $56MM (includes $21MM club option for 2027 season with $2MM buyout)
  • Miguel Rojas, SS: Two years, $10MM
  • Richard Bleier, LHP: Two years, $6MM (includes $3.75MM club option for 2024 season with $250K buyout)

Notable Losses

Coming off a somewhat disappointing 2021, Marlins GM Kim Ng set out to reshape a lineup that scored the second fewest runs in the majors. She did much of her business ahead of the lockout, signing former Brewers outfielder Avisaíl García to a four-year, $53MM deal and acquiring catcher Jacob Stallings from the Pirates (for outfielder Connor Scott and righties Zach Thompson and Kyle Nicolas) and versatile infielder Joey Wendle from the Rays (for outfielder Kameron Misner).

After the lockout was lifted, the Marlins were linked to a number of players via both free agency (Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Eddie Rosario, Michael Conforto) and trade (Ketel Marte, Bryan Reynolds) they didn’t ultimately land. Ng acknowledged at multiple points that  her sights were set on acquiring a center fielder, and either Marte or Reynolds would have been a significant upgrade. The cost, however, proved to be prohibitive, as both players stayed put (Marte on a new five-year extension in Arizona). The free agent cupboard, meanwhile, was largely bare. Ultimately, what could be the Marlins’ most — or, depending which version of the mercurial slugger shows up in Miami this year, least — impactful move came when they beat out the Braves, Rockies, and Padres to sign 2021 World Series MVP Jorge Soler to a three-year, $36MM deal.

As fans of both the Cubs and Royals can attest, the powerful Soler has in essence been two different hitters throughout his career, and 2021 was no exception. Before a deadline trade to the Braves, the 30-year-old outfielder struggled to a .192/.288/.370 batting line across 36o plate appearances with the Royals but slugged his way to a robust .269/.358/.524 in 242 trips to the plate with Atlanta. Oddly, his hard-hit rate (the percent of balls in play with an exit velocity of 95 mph or higher) actually dropped after the trade (from 51.2% to 41.2%). This could suggest a fair bit of randomness at play in both directions, but it could also be a product of a change in approach; Soler’s strikeout rate dropped from 26.9% (also his career average) with the Royals to 18.6% with the Braves, his walk rate ticked up from 10.6% to 12%, and his willingness to go to the opposite field increased dramatically (9.8% of his batted balls went to right with the Royals, 18.3% with the Braves).

Regardless of which Soler the Marlins get, though, the Marlins’ failure to land a legitimate center fielder could yield one of the leakiest outfield defenses in the game — particularly within the relatively capacious confines of Miami’s LoanDepot Park. While Jesús Sánchez (who’s covered the position in the early weeks of 2022) has proven himself capable in a corner, he’s hardly a natural fit in center. García (who was noted as a center field option when he was signed) has been similarly solid in right, but he’s been a clear liability in limited action in center across his ten previous big-league seasons. Between the lack of a league-average option in center and a Garrett Cooper/Jesús Aguilar timeshare at first base/DH that forces Soler into a corner, the Marlins’ staff may well look to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible.

Defensive limitations aside, the offense should score more runs in 2022, if only by default. A combination of trades (Starling Marte, Adam Duvall, and Corey Dickerson), injuries (Marte, Cooper, Aguilar, Brian Anderson, Miguel Rojas, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. all missed significant time), and ineffectiveness plagued the team throughout the year. Both a reversion to the mean in missed time via injury and Ng’s various upgrades should push the Marlins closer to the middle of the offensive pack.

Indeed, while the addition of Wendle — whose .265/.319/.422 line in 2021 neatly matches his career numbers — to take at-bats covered last year largely by Isan Díaz (.193/.294/.282 in 2021), Joe Panik (.172/.241/.221), and Jon Berti (.210/.311/.313) represents a clear upgrade, it also leads to something of a glut in the Miami infield. An oversupply of quality players is hardly a problem worth bemoaning, of course, but Wendle’s arrival could signal a diminution in Anderson’s role. The third baseman struggled to .249/.337/.378 line in an injury-riddled 2021, but he was an above-average hitter from 2018 to 2020 (posting a combined 112 OPS+ over that period) and could well wind up on the trading block.

Several of Ng’s other additions also provide relatively clear offensive upgrades. Stallings, for instance, is primarily known for his glove (he finished first among catchers in the 2021 Fielding Bible Awards), but the career-representative .246/.335/.369 triple-slash he posted with the Pirates in 2021 substantially outpaced Jorge Alfaro’s .244/.283/.342 line even before accounting for the defensive gap. Similarly, the combination of Soler and García (.262/.330/.490 in 2021, a slight boost in slugging relative to his career numbers) in place of Magneuris Sierra (.230/.281/.268 in 2021) and Lewis Brinson (.226/.263/.376) robs the lineup of some speed and the outfield of some range but adds a significant power threat to a batting order that sorely needs it. And as difficult as the team’s 2021 struggles surely were for the Miami faithful to endure, the offseason demotion of Díaz and departures of Brinson and Monte Harrison (all acquired in the 2018 Christian Yelich deal) — as well as Sierra (the Marcell Ozuna deal in the same offseason) and Alfaro (the 2019 J.T. Realmuto trade) — effectively closes the book on the position-player side of the most recent fire-sale for a fanbase far too used to them.

The pitching side of the equation is, of course, an entirely different story, and the primary source of optimism in south Florida. It’s the strength of Miami’s staff — specifically its rotation — that makes the Marlins something of a dark-horse contender in 2022, and a potential powerhouse in the years to come. Ng added a few pieces to the bullpen via trade, including Cole Sulser and long-time minor-league journeyman Louis Head, but stood pat in rotation. It’s easy to understand why: the Marlins possess the sort of stable of young arms capable of anchoring a contender for the better part of a decade.

In an effort to ensure the leader of that potentially formidable bunch stays in Miami for the foreseeable future, Ng gave budding ace Sandy Alcantara — who quietly posted a 3.19 ERA (3.42 FIP) while logging 205 2/3 innings in 2021 — a five-year, $56MM extension that keeps him under club control through the 2027 season. He’ll head a group that also includes 2021 All-Star and Rookie of the Year runner-up Trevor Rogers (who’s struggled so far in 2022 but posted a 2.64 ERA and 2.55 FIP across 133 innings in 2021), Pablo Lopez (who threw 102 2/3 innings of 3.07 ERA/3.29 FIP ball last year before a rotator cuff strain ended his year prematurely), and Jesús Luzardo (who struggled to a 6.61 ERA across 95 1/3 innings between Oakland and Miami last year but has an electric left arm and is off to a promising start to 2022). Former Rule 5 pick Elieser Hernandez opens the season in the fifth slot, but he’ll face pressure from both consensus top-100 prospect Max Meyer and Sixto Sánchez, the headliner in the Realmuto deal who briefly took the league by storm in 2020 but has since been out of action with a shoulder injury (which ultimately required surgery).

As impactful as the acquisition and departure of players on either side of the lockout is likely to be on the Marlins’ near-term future, perhaps the most significant change came while it was ongoing. In a surprise announcement reportedly tied to a clash with majority owner Bruce Sherman, minority owner and club CEO Derek Jeter announced in late February that he had cut ties with the organization. The precise reasons for Jeter’s departure are, of course, somewhat opaque, but reporting from the Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson suggests that Mr. November expected the famously attendance-starved franchise to make a more substantial post-lockout investment in the roster than Sherman was prepared to authorize. (Interestingly, Jeter’s desire to sign Castellanos, who would have represented a clear offensive upgrade but hardly would have remedied the defensive issues in the Miami outfield, is reputed to be among the factors exacerbating the rift between Sherman and his erstwhile partner.)

Regardless of the reasons for Jeter’s unceremonious exit, his absence robs a franchise in search of an identity of the most recognizable face of his generation in baseball history. It does not, however, rob it of its enviable rotation depth, deep farm system, or significantly improved lineup. Whether Ng’s upgrades to the Miami offense and bullpen will be enough to make the them contenders in 2022 — and, indeed, what Jeter’s departure means for the likelihood of keeping the core of the team together for longer than previous talented Marlins squads — remains to be seen.

Marlins, Joey Wendle Avoid Arbitration

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8:51pm: Wendle and the Marlins settled at $4.55MM, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (on Twitter). He’d also receive a $75K buyout if the team declines its end of next season’s mutual option. That brings the total guarantee to $4.625MM, the midpoint between the parties’ filings in arbitration. The infielder’s camp had filed at $4.9MM, while the team countered at $4.35MM.

5:13pm: The Marlins and Joey Wendle have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2023, reports Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. The terms have not been disclosed.

Wendle qualified for arbitration for the first time last year as a member of the Rays, earning a salary of $2.25MM. He had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a modest raise to $4MM this year. Due to the lockout, the salary negotiation process was put on hold and delayed substantially, with hearings now set to take place in season. That creates the potential for awkward situations where a team lays out a player’s flaws in front of an arbiter in order to argue against the player’s salary request, but then expects the player to go out and produce on the field after. Wendle and the Marlins can now avoid such a fate, after agreeing on terms for 2022.

Acquired from the Rays in an offseason trade, Wendle has between four and five years of MLB service time. That means he’s currently lined up to reach free agency after the 2023 season. This deal won’t affect that timeline, but will merely provide a bit of cost certainty, at least for this year. Wendle is off to a great start as a Marlin, hitting .323/.382/.419 in his first ten games.

The Marlins recently reached a similar deal with Jesus Aguilar, although that situation is slightly different in that Aguilar is one year closer to free agency. If the mutual option is not triggered by both parties, he will become a free agent. In Wendle’s case, he could still be controlled by Miami for 2023 via arbitration.

Marlins Place Paul Campbell On Injured List, Recall Daniel Castano

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The Marlins made a couple of roster moves today, according to their transactions tracker at MLB.com. Right-handed pitcher Paul Campbell was placed on the injured list, retroactive to April 18th, with a right elbow strain. Lefty Daniel Castano was recalled to take his place on the active roster.

Campbell was recalled from the minors a few days ago but didn’t get a chance to pitch in any big league games before this IL placement. While there was no timeline provided for the injury, an elbow issue is always somewhat concerning for a pitcher. He made his MLB debut last year, throwing 26 2/3 innings for the Marlins with a 6.41 ERA, 21% strikeout rate and 8.1% walk rate. In eight Triple-A innings this year, he has an elevated 11.25 ERA and 13.2% walk rate, though a strong 23.7% strikeout rate.

Castano already has two scoreless MLB innings under his belt this year. For his career, he’s thrown 52 innings for the Marlins since his 2020 debut, putting up an ERA of 3.63, 11.8% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate. He’ll join Richard Bleier, Tanner Scott and Steven Okert as left-handed options in Miami’s bullpen.

Injured List Placements: Thompson, Bolt, Cabrera

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Catching up on some of today’s injury news…

  • Nationals right-hander Mason Thompson was placed on the 10-day injured list with a right biceps strain.  Washington called up Hunter Harvey from Triple-A in the corresponding move, with the former Orioles top prospect getting his first look with his new team since the Nats claimed him off waivers from the Giants two weeks ago.  Thompson threw only three pitches before being forced out of last night’s outing against the Mets.  X-rays are negative, and Thompson is also undergoing an MRI today, Washington manager Dave Martinez told MLB.com’s Jessica Camerato and other reporters.
  • The Athletics placed Skye Bolt on the 10-day IL with a right oblique strain.  Left-hander Adam Kolarek was called up from Triple-A.  After debuting with five games for Oakland in 2019, Bolt didn’t see any action in 2020 and then played in 34 total games with the Giants and A’s last season.  Bolt has some big numbers with Oakland’s Triple-A affiliate but hasn’t brought that pop to the majors, with only an .090/.116/.164 slash line over 71 career plate appearances in the Show.
  • Edward Cabrera has been placed on the minor league injured list, as the former Marlins top prospect is dealing with a right biceps injury.  Beyond the delayed start that everyone faced for Spring Training, Cabrera’s spring work was also delayed by a visa issue, hence his extra time in the minors.  While this particular injury isn’t thought to be too serious, Cabrera did miss two months last season due to an inflamed nerve in that same right biceps.  Among the many highly-touted young arms in the Marlins organization, Cabrera is one of the most promising, regularly featuring on top-100 lists over the last three seasons.  The right-hander made his MLB debut last season, posting a 5.81 ERA over 26 1/3 innings for Miami.

Marlins’ Sean Guenther Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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The Marlins informed reporters this afternoon that left-hander Sean Guenther underwent Tommy John surgery yesterday (via Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald). That’ll obviously keep him out for the entire season, and it seems likely he’ll miss a good portion of the 2023 campaign.

It’s a difficult blow for Guenther, albeit not all that unexpected. It was reported last week the southpaw was dealing with an arm issue which may require surgery. Miami had already placed him on the 60-day injured list, so there won’t be any forthcoming transaction now that he’s gone under the knife.

Guenther, 26, reached the big leagues for the first time last season. He made 14 appearances and worked 20 1/3 innings, struggling to a 9.30 ERA. Guenther didn’t miss many bats in the majors, but he induced grounders at a decent 47.2% clip. He also posted some excellent strikeout and walk numbers with Triple-A Jacksonville, where he punched out 30.1% of batters faced and only walked 4.3% of opponents.

While he won’t pitch in 2022, Guenther will receive major league pay and service time for his time on the IL. The Marlins will have to add him back to the 40-man roster at the start of next offseason.

Marlins Select Shawn Armstrong

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The Marlins announced this morning that reliever Shawn Armstrong has made the Opening Day roster. Miami cleared a 40-man roster spot with yesterday’s trade of Alex Jackson to the Brewers. The Fish also placed reliever Dylan Floro and infielder Jose Devers on the 10-day injured list and recalled outfielder Bryan De La Cruz from Triple-A Jacksonville.

Armstrong, 31, has pitched in the big leagues in each of the past seven seasons. He owns a career 4.63 ERA in 167 innings, striking out and walking batters at roughly average respective clips. Last year, the right-hander split the season between the Orioles and Rays and posted a 6.75 ERA in spite of a capable 26.7% strikeout rate. Outrighted off the Tampa Bay roster at the end of the year, he latched on with Miami on a minor league contract.

Home runs were a real issue for Armstrong, as he served up ten longballs in just 36 innings. The Miami front office is certainly hopeful that’ll even out in a more pitcher-friendly home environment. He’s out of minor league option years, so the Marlins will have to carry Armstrong on the active roster moving forward or else make him available to other teams.

AJ Ramos Announces Retirement

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Reliever AJ Ramos is retiring from professional baseball, he announced this afternoon (on Twitter). “Everyday you get to play/live truly is a blessing,” Ramos wrote as part of his statement. “The ability to enjoy the process is a big part of being successful because you soon realize that every setback or failure is just an opportunity to learn and get better. So I am thankful for my failures just as much as my success, beyond grateful for my time playing baseball.”

Ramos began his professional career as a 21st-round pick of the Marlins out of Texas Tech in 2009. Despite not being a high draft pick, the right-hander pitched his way to the majors within three years. Ramos made 11 appearances with the Fish late in the 2012 campaign, and he emerged as an important and effective late-inning option by the following year.

The 2013 season marked Ramos’ first of four straight seasons working at least 64 innings with an ERA no higher than 3.15. He held opponents to a pitiful .194/.303/.277 slash line over that stretch, allowing a cumulative 2.64 earned runs per nine. The Lubbock native punched out 27.4% of batters faced at a time when the league-wide strikeout rate for bullpen arms was about five points lower. Ramos emerged as Miami’s closer by 2015 and he was selected to the All-Star game during a 40-save 2016 campaign.

Miami traded Ramos to the division-rival Mets in advance of the 2017 trade deadline. His numbers ticked down in Queens, particularly in 2018. He never seemed fully healthy that season, and he was diagnosed with a labrum tear in his throwing shoulder that June. That required season-ending surgery, one from which Ramos didn’t appear to ever fully recover.

After missing all of the 2019 campaign rehabbing, Ramos announced he was attempting a comeback in July 2020. After successive stints with the Dodgers and Cubs didn’t result in a big league look, he was rewarded for his perseverance with a late-season return to the majors as a Rockie. He signed a minor league contract with the Angels last season, and Los Angeles brought him up for the final week of the year.

Ramos returned to the Anaheim organization on another minors pact this offseason. Unfortunately, he suffered a torn capsule in his shoulder last week. Ramos quipped in his retirement announcement that he “gave it (his) all until (his) arm gave out … then threw two more pitches just to make sure.” It’s certainly not how the 35-year-old would’ve wanted his career to wrap up, but there’s no question he had a successful run.

Altogether, Ramos appeared in parts of nine big league seasons, working 373 1/3 innings across 381 games. He struck out 430 hitters, saved 99 games, held 46 more leads and posted a 3.04 ERA. Ramos had a four-year stretch as one of the more quietly effective relief arms around the sport, and while injuries plagued the late stages of his career, he was rewarded for his comeback efforts with late MLB looks in each of the last two years. MLBTR congratulates Ramos on his career and wishes him the best in retirement.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Brewers Acquire Alex Jackson From Marlins

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Just hours after acquiring Víctor Caratini from the Padres, the Brewers have landed another catcher. Milwaukee is picking up Alex Jackson from the Marlins in exchange for minor leaguers Hayden Cantrelle and Alexis Ramirez, according to announcements from both teams.

Milwaukee already had a pair of vacancies on the 40-man roster, and Jackson has been optioned to Triple-A Nashville. Milwaukee is still set to open the year with a catching tandem of Omar Narváez and Caratini, but Jackson joins prospect Mario Feliciano as depth options on the 40-man roster.

Jackson, 26, spent less than a season as a Marlin. The Fish acquired from the division-rival Braves for Adam Duvall last summer. He appeared in 42 games with Miami late last year, hitting .157/.260/.278 while striking out in 48.8% of his 123 plate appearances. That marked Jackson’s most extended MLB work, as he’d picked up just 50 plate appearances in Atlanta between 2019-21.

Obviously, Jackson will need to make more contact moving forward. The right-handed hitter is a former 6th overall pick and top prospect, though, drawing praise from evaluators for big raw power and arm strength behind the dish. Jackson has popped 42 home runs and 29 doubles in 597 career Triple-A plate appearances. That’s massive power production, although it’s been accompanied by a .234 batting average and .318 on-base percentage.

Jackson has one option year remaining, so the Brewers can stash him at Nashville for the rest of this season. If he stays on the 40-man roster, Milwaukee will have to decide whether to carry him on the active roster in 2023. For now, he’ll add some depth to a catching group that just lost Pedro Severino to an 80-game PED suspension and saw Brett Sullivan shipped to San Diego in the Caratini deal.

Cantrelle was a fifth-round pick in 2020 out of the University of Louisiana. The 23-year-old drew some praise for his athleticism and defensive aptitude on draft day, but he’s coming off a rough professional debut. Cantrelle hit .175/.376/.313 in 341 High-A plate appearances during his first pro action last year. He stole 28 bases and walked in an incredible 22.6% of his trips to the dish, but Cantrelle also fanned 26.4% of the time and only had 20 extra-base hits. Baseball America slotted him 37th in the Milwaukee farm system this winter.

Ramirez signed as an amateur out of the Dominican Republic during the 2017-18 signing period. He pitched at a pair of rookie ball levels during his first two professional seasons. Ramirez hasn’t pitched in game since 2019; after the 2020 minor league season was canceled, he spent all of last season on the minor league injured list. Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs wrote last July that he was up to 96 MPH with a potential above-average slider in 2019.

Marlins, Jesus Aguilar Avoid Arbitration

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The Marlins and first baseman Jesús Aguilar have agreed on a $7.5MM deal to avoid arbitration, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (on Twitter). That comes in the form of a $7.3MM salary for the upcoming season plus a $200K buyout on a new mutual option for the 2023 campaign. That buyout will increase to $250K if Aguilar, a client of MVP Sports Group, tallies at least 550 plate appearances this season.

Aguilar had filed at $7.75MM, while team had countered at $7MM. They’ll eventually come in a bit north of the midpoint of those figures to avoid an in-season hearing. It concludes the final trip through the arb process for Aguilar, as the 31-year-old is set to hit free agency at the end of the season.

The mutual option theoretically raises the possibility of him not hitting the open market, although it’s likely little more than an accounting measure. Mutual options are very rarely exercised by both sides, and the primary purpose is to push the team’s responsibility for the buyout to the end of the season as opposed to dispersing that money over the coming months in 2022 salary.

Aguilar has spent the past two seasons in South Florida. He’s served as Miami’s primary first baseman since being claimed off waivers from the Rays in December 2019. The right-handed hitter has been a solid but not elite hitter over that run, hitting .265/.336/.458 in a pitcher-friendly home ballpark. He’ll be part of what looks to be a solid crop of free agent first basemen next winter; Brandon Belt, José Abreu, Josh Bell, Yuli Gurriel and Trey Mancini are all set to hit the open market, while Anthony Rizzo will have the opportunity to opt-out of his deal with the Yankees.

Roster Notes: Twins, Marlins, Pirates, Yankees, Cubs, Phillies

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With the season just a few days away, roster decisions around the game continue to trickle in. We’ll round up some notable non 40-man roster decisions here.

    • Twins pitching prospect Jhoan Duran has made the Opening Day roster, per a club announcement. He’ll initially work out of the bullpen. Ranked the #9 prospect in the Minnesota organization by Baseball America, Duran draws praise for an upper-90s fastball and a power splitter that have helped him run plus strikeout rates throughout his minor league career.
    • The Marlins have informed outfielder Roman Quinn he will not make the Opening Day roster, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid (Twitter link). It comes as a bit of a surprise, as Quinn had seemed the favorite for a fourth outfield role after the Fish released Delino DeShields Jr. over the weekend. Presumably, that job will fall to utilityman Jon Berti early on.
    • Infield prospect Diego Castillo has made the Pirates’ Opening Day roster, tweets Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Castillo, acquired in the trade that sent righty Clay Holmes to the Yankees, will make his big league debut the first time he gets into a game.
    • The Yankees announced they’ve reassigned outfielder Ender Inciarte and left-hander Manny Bañuelos to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. Inciarte has an opt-out clause in his minor league deal and tells ESPN’s Marly Rivera he hasn’t yet decided whether he’ll accept the assignment to Triple-A.
    • The Cubs informed pitching prospect Ethan Roberts he’ll be on the Opening Day roster, he informed reporters (including Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times). A fourth-round pick in 2018 out of Tennessee Tech, the right-hander is the #33 prospect in the organization according to Baseball America. The reliever posted an even 3.00 ERA over 54 innings between Double-A Tennessee and Triple-A Iowa last season. The Cubs reassigned non-roster invitees Jonathan Holder, Robert Gsellman, Steven Brault, Stephen Gonsalves and Ildemaro Vargas to Iowa, tweets Jordan Bastian of MLB.com.
    • The Phillies reassigned non-roster invitees Ronald Torreyes, Yairo Muñoz and Dillon Maples to Triple-A Lehigh Valley, tweets Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. Torreyes and Muñoz were competing for utility spots, while the hard-throwing Maples had been seeking a spot in the Philly bullpen.

 

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