- The Brewers have announced the signing of infielder Shane Opitz to a minor league pact. Milwaukee is the second organization for the 26-year-old Opitz, who had been with the Blue Jays since they used an 11th-round pick on him in 2010. Opitz hasn’t yet reached the majors and is coming off his first season at the Triple-A level, where he fared poorly across 274 plate appearances (.252/.306/.333). The .639 OPS he posted last year happens to match the lifetime figure he has recorded in 1,972 minor league PAs. While Opitz hasn’t been a threat the plate, he has offered defensive versatility in the minors, having lined up at first, second, shortstop, third and all three outfield positions. The majority of his action, including in 2017, has come at short.
Brewers Rumors
Brewers, Yu Darvish Still Talking
- The Brewers remain in discussions with free agent right-hander Yu Darvish, Robert Murray and Jon Heyman of FanRag report. A deal isn’t necessarily imminent, though, they suggest. Milwaukee reportedly made Darvish a contract offer a week and a half ago, and the playoff-hopeful club has since added quality pieces to its roster in Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich and Matt Albers. On the heels of the Cain and Yelich pickups, owner Mark Attanasio indicated last weekend that general manager David Stearns has been working to bolster the team’s starting staff, and he added that the Brewers have the payroll flexibility to acquire a big-time free agent. Darvish certainly fits the bill as arguably the premier player on the open market.
- Even after signing Albers, Boone Logan and J.J. Hoover this offseason, the Brewers may not be done strengthening their bullpen, per Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Twitter link). They haven’t allocated much money to the group, pulling in Albers and Logan for a combined $7.5MM in guarantees and only handing Hoover a minor league deal. Their relief corps was actually among the majors’ most effective last year (seventh in K/9, tied for eighth in ERA), though Anthony Swarzak and Jared Hughes have since signed elsewhere.
Brewers Designate Andrew Susac For Assignment
The Brewers announced that they’ve designated catcher Andrew Susac for assignment today in order to clear a spot on the roster for righty Matt Albers, whose previously reported two-year deal with the team is now official.
Susac, 27, was once one of baseball’s very best overall prospects, ranking in the Top 100 on multiple lists prior to the 2015 campaign and frequently appearing on the Giants’ organizational rankings. He went to Milwaukee in a 2016 swap that sent lefty Will Smith to San Francisco, though, and has struggled in both organizations over the past couple of seasons.
In 274 MLB plate appearances, Susac has batted just .232/.299/.396 with an alarming 82 strikeouts against 23 walks. He’s been more effective in his Triple-A career, hitting at a .247/.338/.425 clip, and strikeouts haven’t been nearly as much of an issue for him there. Durability, on the other hand, has been a major factor for the former second-rounder (Giants, 2011); Susac has appeared in more than 100 games just twice in a season, and he’s totaled just 142 games over the past two seasons combined. In his young career, Susac has already dealt with wrist, trapezius, finger and shoulder injuries on separate occasions.
With Manny Pina, Stephen Vogt and Jett Bandy all on the 40-man roster, the Brewers seemingly feel set on catching depth. It’s possible that Susac clears waivers and remains in the organization, though he does have a minor league option remaining, so he could hold appeal to another organization that is thin at the position.
Poll: How Good Are The Brewers?
The Milwaukee Brewers have had a busy offseason (especially over the course of the past week), and they appear to be nearing the end of a surprisingly short rebuild.
Just last week, it would have seemed odd to count the Brewers as serious contenders for an NL Central pennant in 2018, considering the apparent strength of the rival Cubs and Cardinals. But the Brew Crew shocked the baseball world by acquiring Christian Yelich from the Marlins and signing Lorenzo Cain to a five-year contract within a span of two hours. They’ve since signed Matt Albers to a two-year contract as well, who’ll join lefty Boone Logan as veteran upgrades to the club’s bullpen.
But even after all those upgrades, Fangraphs still projects the Brewers to finish with a record of 77-85. That’s surprising on the surface considering the club’s 86-76 record in 2017 in combination with the team’s offseason moves thus far. But when taking an in-depth look at the club’s roster, they have some key holes that may hurt their ability to compete with more complete teams.
The club’s rotation is their most obvious issue. Jimmy Nelson, who took an enormous leap forward last season, will be sidelined until June while recovering from a torn labrum. Chase Anderson and Zach Davies seem like safe bets, but beyond them is a risky and seemingly low-ceiling group that includes Brent Suter, Yovani Gallardo and Jhoulys Chacin. That’s not to say that the Cubs and Cardinals don’t have their own sets of question marks, but the Brewers’ rotation without Nelson could prove somewhat of a white-knuckle experience for fans.
It’s not as though the club can simply lean on its bullpen, either. Corey Knebel and Josh Hader will serve as an intimidating closer and fireman, respectively, but beyond them there’s plenty of uncertainty. The recently-signed Matt Albers isn’t a lock to repeat the figures of his career year in 2017, and Boone Logan is returning from a lat strain that sidelined him for the final two months of his contract with the Indians last season. The remainder of the club’s relief corps is a ragtag group that includes Junior Guerra, Jacob Barnes, Olivier Drake and the declining Jeremy Jeffress. The bridge to Hader and Knebel is a rickety one.
Milwaukee’s offense can probably be looked at as a strength, but it’s not without holes of its own. It remains to be seen whether Jonathan Villar can bounce back from an incredibly poor 2017 campaign during which he struck out more than 30% of the time and posted an on-base percentage below .300. The club will also count on 30-year-old catcher Manny Pina to sustain his sudden offensive breakout.
That being said, the Brewers lineup on the whole is intimidating, to say the least, particularly if the young Orlando Arcia takes another step forward, Travis Shaw keeps his foot on the gas and Ryan Braun remains mostly healthy. If things break right, their offense could end up being on par with those of the Cubs and Cardinals.
It’s time for the readers to weigh in. Sure, there’s some offseason left to go, and a pitching market that could certainly shift the division’s power balance once the dominoes begin to fall. But as things stand right now, do you think the Brewers are a playoff team?
(Poll link for app users)
Minor MLB Transactions: 1/29/18
We’ll collect the minor league transactions from today in this post…
- The Cardinals have added right-handed starter Nestor Molina (no relation) on a minor-league contract, says Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com. Formerly a top prospect in the Blue Jays’ system, Molina is perhaps best known for being traded to the White Sox in exchange for Sergio Santos during the 2011-2012 offseason. The 29-year-old has never pitched at the MLB level, and has spent the bulk of the past two years pitching in the Mexican league. During the 2017 campaign, he pitched 152 2/3 innings across 23 starts to the tune of a 1.89 ERA. He’ll serve as an interesting depth piece for a Cardinals organization that has some question marks in its rotation, though it should be noted that Molina has only ever pitched four innings above the Double-A level.
- The Brewers have re-signed 27-year-old second baseman Gabriel Noriega to a minors pact, the team’s player development account announced today on Twitter. Noriega’s spent ten years in the minors, shuffling between the Royals, Mariners, Brewers and Diamondbacks organizations. He’s hovered around a 50 wRC+ over the past two seasons in the upper minors. Noriega was originally signed out of Venezuela by the Mariners, and remained in the club’s farm system through the 2014 season.
- The Nationals inked Reid Brignac to a minors pact that includes a spring training invite, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports on Twitter. Brignac, 32, has seen time at the major league level with the Braves, Marlins, Phillies, Rockies, Yankees and Rays while playing mostly at shortstop. Though he’s played below replacement level in each of the past seven seasons, Brignac has generally been an above-average defender. Perhaps that could be reason enough for Washington to look past his career .219/.264/.309 slash line and give him a shot at a utility infielder role.
Brewers Sign Lorenzo Cain
January 29th, 6:10pm: Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports has the details on some incentives in Cain’s contract (Twitter links). The outfielder will reportedly earn $300K every time he makes the All-Star team. He’ll also earn $500K if he’s ever named league MVP, $250K if he finishes second through fifth in the MVP voting, and $125K if he finishes 6th through 10th. Cain can also make an extra $50K by winning the World Series MVP award, and he’ll pocket $25K any time he wins a Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, or LCS MVP. Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports confirms the incentives, and notes that the Brewers will also reserve a suite for Cain at Miller Park during 20 games each season, while pointing out that the estimated value of Cain’s contract with deferments in mind is actually $78,917,630.
January 26th, 2:48pm: Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports that Cain will earn $13MM in 2018, $14MM in 2019, $15MM in 2020, $16MM in 2021 and $17MM in 2022 (Twitter links). He’ll also receive an additional, deferred payment of $1MM in each of the five years following the contract’s conclusion. The no-trade provision offers complete protection in year one of the deal and limited protection each season thereafter, dropping down to five teams in the final year of the contract. More specifically, MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy adds that Cain can block deals to 15 teams in 2019, seven teams in 2020 and five in 2021-22.
12:00pm: In a stunning turn, the Brewers even further bolstered their outfield, announcing on Friday that they’ve signed Lorenzo Cain to a five-year pact that will reportedly guarantee him $80MM. The All Bases Covered client will reportedly pick up no-trade rights as well, with full protection early in the contract and more limited no-trade provisions in its later years.
Cain will join Christian Yelich in a stunningly re-made Milwaukee outfield — opening up new avenues for trades of existing players that could shake the market. The signing also breaks open a moribund free agent signing period, with a premium player scoring a big contract for the first time in weeks.
Entering the day, the Brewers featured Ryan Braun and Domingo Santana in the corners, with a trio of young options — Keon Broxton, Lewis Brinson, and Brett Phillips — up the middle. Now, Brinson is out, Cain and Yelich are in, and the remaining players (excepting, perhaps, Braun) appear to be possible trade chips.
[RELATED: Updated Brewers Depth Chart]
Milwaukee had a clear need to improve its rotation when the winter started, particularly given uncertainty surrounding righty Jimmy Nelson. The organization has decided first to improve the outfield, though that could all be part of a plan to move other assets for starting pitching. Santana and Phillips could both be hotly pursued assets, with a variety of teams — the Athletics, Braves, and Rays all make some degree of sense on paper — potentially representing suitors with some pitching on offer.
As much as the signing could mean for the trade market, it’s a welcome sign for players anxiously watching a slow-motion free agent period. In MLBTR’s top 50 free agent ranking, we predicted that Cain would secure $70MM over four years, so this represents a strong contract for the excellent but soon-to-be 32-year-old outfielder. The contract is the first this winter that guarantees more than three seasons and more than $60MM. Cain becomes only the second of MLBTR’s ten top-rated free agents who has signed to this point.
It’s equally intriguing to consider the teams that missed out on Cain. Crasnick again has the details, tweeting that the Dodgers, Cubs, Giants, and Indians were involved in the market. While San Francisco was long known to have interest, tempered by its luxury tax considerations, the other clubs are all rather eye-opening pursuers in various regards. Los Angeles has been tough to decipher all winter long as it watches its own payroll. The Cubs have a fairly well-stocked outfield mix but seem to have irons in a variety of fires. And the Indians have signaled they don’t have much more to spend, but were evidently still willing to consider a major win-now move (presumably with other salary-shedding efforts to accompany it).
It seems hard to recall after his years in Kansas City, but Cain was once a Brewer. Indeed, he joined the Milwaukee organization as a 17th-round pick way back in 2004. As Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel notes on Twitter, both Cain and Jeremy Jeffress have returned to the Brewers after being dealt to the Royals in the 2010 Zack Greinke swap.
In the interim, Cain has emerged as a star. He reached his career pinnacle in 2015, turning in elite efforts at the plate, on the bases, and in the field to rack up 6.5 fWAR. After a step back in the ensuing season, which was marred in part by injury, Cain emerged again in 2017.
While initial reports connecting Cain to Milwaukee this offseason came as somewhat of a surprise, it appears he’s been on their radar since the onset of free agency. “They said from the minute free agency opened that I was on the top of their list,” Cain said in a chat with MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan.. “We just had to work through all the details, and eventually we both got to the numbers we liked.”
Even if Cain’s superstar-level ’15 output isn’t likely to be repeated, the Brewers will hope he can keep up his most recent efforts. Last year, Cain dropped his strikeout rate to a career-low 15.5%, walked at a career-best 8.4%, compiled 15 home runs and 26 steals, and ended with an even .300 batting average. While metrics now grade him more as a good than a great fielder in center, Cain remains a high-quality all-around performer.
Since Cain rejected a qualifying offer from the Royals, draft compensation will result from the signing. As an organization that received revenue sharing and did not go past the competitive balance tax line in 2017, Milwaukee will have to sacrifice its third-highest draft pick. Notably, MLBTR has confirmed that Competitive Balance draft picks are exempt from this type of forfeiture, however, meaning the Brewers will only have to surrender their third-round selection. For the Royals, bidding adieu to Cain — since he signed for more than $50MM — will mean recouping a pick after the end of the first round of the 2018 draft.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported the agreement (via Twitter). ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reported the terms of the deal (Twitter links).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Brewers Agree To Terms With Matt Albers
12:02pm: Nicholson-Smith tweets that Albers will have a $2.5MM base salary in each season of the contract, and his incentives begin kicking in with his 35th appearance. He’d max out his incentives by appearing in 65 games in each season of the contract.
11:50am: The Brewers and free agent righty Matt Albers have reached an agreement on a two-year deal, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). Albers, a client of SSG Baseball, will be guaranteed $5MM on the contract and can earn another $1MM each year based on total appearances, according to Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith (Twitter link). The deal is pending a physical.
Albers, who turned 35 last week, was the most consistent member of the Nationals’ bullpen in 2017, pitching to a pristine 1.62 ERA with 9.3 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9 and a 51 percent ground-ball rate through 61 innings of work. It represented a terrific bounce-back campaign for Albers, who’d limped to a 6.31 ERA in 51 1/3 innings with the White Sox in 2016.
There are, it should be noted, some indications that Albers had his share of good fortune in 2017, as well, though. His 8.7 percent swinging-strike rate was below the league average and not what one would expect from a pitcher that whiffed better than a batter per inning — a feat he’d achieved in only one season prior to 2017 (with the Red Sox way back in 2011). Albers also benefited from a minuscule .203 BABIP, though while that mark is in for some regression, the extent of said regression may not be as great as one might think at first glance.
Albers posted a hefty 15.9 percent infield-fly rate in 2017, and his batted-ball profile was among the most encouraging of any reliever in the game. Albers allowed a measly 22.8 percent hard-hit rate against him, which was the third-lowest mark in MLB among qualified relievers. He also induced 30.9 soft-contact rate, which was good for the fourth-best in the bigs.
Since establishing himself as a regular big league reliever back in 2009, Albers has been a rather durable asset, appearing in 55+ games in seven of those nine seasons. He was limited to 37 1/3 innings in 2015, though that year was truncated by a broken finger rather than any sort of arm injury. Shoulder trouble kept him out of action for all but 10 innings of the 2014 season, but that’s been the only instance of a notable arm injury keeping him on the shelf for a prolonged period in nearly a decade’s time.
[Related: Updated Milwaukee Brewers depth chart]
Albers won’t factor into the closing mix in Milwaukee, where Corey Knebel is fresh off a breakout season in which he stepped into the spotlight as one of the game’s top strikeout artists. However, the veteran Albers will join lefty Boone Logan as a newly signed addition to manager Craig Counsell’s relief corps, where he’ll pair with Jacob Barnes, Jeremy Jeffress and Josh Hader to help bridge the gap from the team’s rotation to Knebel at the end of the game.
It’s been an aggressive week for Milwaukee, of course, as GM David Stearns and his staff have also signed Lorenzo Cain and pulled off a blockbuster to acquire Christian Yelich within the past four days alone. Brewers owner Mark Attanasio gave signals over the weekend, too, that the Brew Crew still has the payroll capacity to add a top starting pitcher if Stearns & Co. feel the right deal presents itself.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Mets, Domingo, Nationals, Kipnis
Here are some of the latest hot stove whisperings overheard by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, detailed in his latest column (insider subscription required and highly recommended)…
- The Mets are “weighing” four players as potential solutions to their need at second and/or third base. They’re interested in free agents Eduardo Nunez, Todd Frazier and former Met Neil Walker, while also exploring the possibility of adding Josh Harrison via trade. The latter would require the Amazins to fork over young outfielder Brandon Nimmo, according to Rosenthal’s sources. Of course, the team has all of Yoenis Cespedes, Jay Bruce and Michael Conforto under control for at least the next three seasons, and Rosenthal posits that they shouldn’t cling too tightly to a fourth outfielder if trading him could help improve their chances in 2018. Furthermore, pivoting to Walker could “spark justifiable criticism” that the Mets are reassembling a losing team; they’ve already re-signed Jose Reyes and Bruce.
- Trade speculation surrounding Brewers outfielder Domingo Santana has spiked ever since the team acquired Christian Yelich and signed Lorenzo Cain just minutes later. But although he slugged 30 homers last season and is just 25 years of age, his trade value may not be as high as one might think. Rosenthal quotes rival executives saying that Santana is “a bad defender” and “not a winning player.” Those comments come off a bit extreme, but it’s worth noting that he struck out in nearly 30% of his plate appearances last season while being worth -5 Defensive Runs Saved in the outfield.
- While it’s been oft-reported that Nationals GM Mike Rizzo isn’t willing to part with top prospect Victor Robles in a trade, Rosenthal suggests that the club could be willing to give up Michael Taylor if his involvement in a deal would help the club net Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto. On the other hand, some officials in the organization aren’t keen on giving up a player who’s a fairly safe option in the outfield while Adam Eaton is coming off a significant surgery and Bryce Harper is set to become a free agent next winter.
- The Yankees reportedly showed some interest in Indians second baseman Jason Kipnis at some point this offseason. However, that interest has apparently cooled of late. While his contribution towards the luxury tax threshold isn’t significant ($8.75MM per season), his actual remaining salary ($30.5MM guaranteed over two years) might be considered somewhat of a risk for a bounce-back candidate; one rival executive says he’s worth a shot, but not at that price. The 30-year-old Kipnis spent significant time on the DL last season with shoulder and hamstring injuries, and hit just .232/.291/.414 last season when healthy.
Latest On Brewers’ Rotation
As of now, right-handers Chase Anderson, Zach Davies and Jhoulys Chacin are the only locks for Milwaukee’s 2018 rotation, manager Craig Counsell suggested to reporters, including Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, on Sunday (Twitter link). Barring further moves, Brandon Woodruff, Brent Suter, Yovani Gallardo, Junior Guerra and Aaron Wilkerson are in line to compete for the final two sports, according to Counsell.
Conspicuously absent from that group is left-hander Josh Hader, a former starter prospect who entered the offseason with his future role in question after he dominated out of the Brewers’ bullpen as a rookie in 2017. General manager David Stearns announced Sunday that the soon-to-be 24-year-old Hader will remain a reliever to begin 2018, meaning he won’t factor into their starting competition (via McCalvy, on Twitter)
While Hader won’t be among the Brewers’ season-opening rotation possibilities, the mix seems likely to feature at least one more newcomer besides Chacin and Gallardo. Owner Mark Attanasio confirmed that’s Milwaukee’s interested in adding starting help, saying, “You can never have enough pitching and David (Stearns) is working on it.” While they’re reportedly unlikely to sign either Yu Darvish or Alex Cobb, Attanasio stated that the Brewers do have the payroll space to pick up a high-end free agent starter (Twitter links via Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel).
After reeling in outfielders Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich this week, the Brewers’ commitments for 2018 come in around $92MM – a significant bump over their $63MM-plus Opening Day payrolls from 2016-17. Since 2005, Attanasio’s first season as Milwaukee’s owner, the team has twice exceeded the $100MM Opening Day payroll mark. They’d figure to blow past that figure by signing any of Darvish, Cobb, Jake Arrieta or Lance Lynn.
Beyond the four best available hurlers, free agency is lacking impact starters, which could point the Brewers toward a trade if they don’t sign one of the top names. They’ve shown reported interest this offseason in Chris Archer (Rays), Patrick Corbin (Diamondbacks) and Danny Salazar (Indians), though it’s unclear how willing any of those teams are to move those starters. There’s plenty of speculation the Brewers will try to parlay their outfield logjam into rotation help by dealing Domingo Santana, Keon Broxton and/or Brett Phillips, but it’s an open question whether any of those three would help the club land a coveted front-end starter in return.
With 2017 ace Jimmy Nelson recovering from a serious procedure (surgery on a partially torn right labrum) and unlikely to return until the summertime, it’s fair to say the Brewers could use another proven option for their rotation. Although Milwaukee’s starters finished eighth in the majors in fWAR (13.3) and 10th in ERA (4.10) during its near-playoff season in 2017, Nelson’s work over 175 1/3 innings (4.9 fWAR, 3.49 ERA) significantly contributed to those rankings. It’s now anyone’s guess what he’ll provide in 2018, which could help lead to the Brewers making a splash on the pitching market.
Keon Broxton Has Minor League Option Remaining
Contrary to popular belief, Brewers center fielder Keon Broxton is not out of minor league options, according to Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. Because Broxton spent fewer than 20 days in the minors in 2017, he did not burn his final option year, McCalvy reports (Twitter link).
This normally wouldn’t be a particularly newsworthy development, but it’s interesting in Broxton’s case because he has come up as a trade candidate this offseason. Thanks in part to the Brewers’ acquisitions of fellow outfielders Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich this week, an out-of-options Broxton very easily could have found himself in another organization by the start of the season. While that still might be the case, the Brewers do have the chance to keep the soon-to-be 28-year-old around as minor league depth. If he remains a Brewer, earning a big league role at the outset of the season could be difficult with Cain, Yelich, Domingo Santana, Ryan Braun and Brett Phillips also in the fold (though Santana’s popular in the rumor mill, too).
Broxton emerged on the big league scene in 2016, overcoming a 36.1 percent strikeout rate to slash .242/.354/.430 with nine home runs and 23 stolen bases over 244 plate appearances. He also graded well in the grass, with nine Defensive Runs Saved and a 5.4 Ultimate Zone Rating. All said, Broxton was worth 2.1 fWAR that year, which was a boon to a Milwaukee club that essentially stole him from the division-rival Pirates in a December 2015 trade.
Unfortunately for Broxton and the Brewers, he went backward in 2017. While Broxton was a 20-20 player, finishing with exactly that many HRs and 21 stolen bases, he increased his already high K rate to 37.8 percent and hit a meager .220/.299/.420 across 463 PAs. Additionally, Broxton drew poor defensive marks according to DRS (minus-7) and UZR (minus-2.1), though Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric ranked him among the game’s best outfielders.
In the midst of his struggles last year, the Brewers sent Broxton to the minors in July. Because it was such a short-lived demotion, he could head back to Triple-A Colorado Springs this year if the Brewers don’t trade him. Broxton would likely have value in a deal, though, considering his upside and team control. He’s under wraps through the 2022 campaign and won’t be eligible for arbitration until at least next offseason.
