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Brewers Promote Tyler Black

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4:05pm: The Brewers have made it official, announcing they have selected Black’s contract. Miley was transferred to the 60-day injured list to open up a 40-man spot while Miller was optioned to make room on the active roster.

1:35pm: The Brewers are expected to call up infield prospect Tyler Black today, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Black is not on the 40-man roster, so a corresponding move will be necessary, though Wade Miley could easily be transferred to the 60-day injured list since he is going to miss the rest of the season due to Tommy John surgery. Another move would still be necessary to get Black onto the active roster.

Black, 23, was selected by the Brewers with the 33rd overall pick in the 2021 draft. Since then, he has climbed the minor league ladder, earning huge amounts of praise for his plate discipline. He spent 2022 in High-A, walking more often than he struck out. He was limited to 283 plate appearances in 64 games due to a fractured scapula but drew 45 walks while getting punched out 44 times, leading to respective rates of 15.9% and 15.5%. He only hit four home runs but his .281/.406/.424 batting line translated to a 137 wRC+.

He got over his injury and returned to the field last year, playing 123 games between Double-A and Triple-A. He walked in 15.8% of his trips to the plate on the year while striking out at a 17.9% rate, hitting 18 home runs in the process. He hit a combined .284/.417/.513 between the two levels for a 145 wRC+. He returned to Triple-A this year and has produced a batting line of .303/.393/.525 so far.

Though the plate discipline is his most standout tool, he also has some speed to offer. He stole 13 bases in his injury-shortened 2022 campaign before swiping 55 bags on 67 tries last year. He’s tallied another three in the early going here in 2024.

Defensively, he’s more of a question mark. He was a second baseman in college and the early parts of his minor league career, spending some time in center field in 2022 as well. But since the start of last year, he’s been exclusively on the infield corners, primarily at third.

Regardless of the defensive question marks, the strong offense and the speed are enough for him to be considered one of the best prospects in the league. Baseball America currently lists him as their #73 prospect. MLB Pipeline has him at #42, ESPN at #51 while Keith Law of The Athletic put him in the #44 spot. Though for a dissenting opinion, Black doesn’t crack the top 100 at FanGraphs and Eric Longenhagen put him at just #10 in the Brewers’ system last month. Longenhagen expresses concern that Black won’t stick at third base and will eventually end up at first, where his contact-over-power approach will be insufficient.

Given the current Milwaukee infield alignment, it would seem that Black probably has a better path to playing time at first base for now. Joey Ortiz has been the regular at third and is hitting a strong .279/.392/.426 so far this year, 134 wRC+. First base has been split between Rhys Hoskins and Jake Bauers, though the latter hasn’t been performing especially well. Bauers is hitting .200/.250/.383 while striking out in 37.5% of his trips to the plate this year.

Both Bauers and Black are left-handed hitters, so it seems Bauers is the player most likely to lose playing time with Black promotion. Bauers is out of options and would have to be designated for assignment if he is to be squeezed off the roster. Though if the Brewers want to keep him around as a bench bat, they could option someone like Joey Wiemer, Oliver Dunn or Owen Miller.

It’s late enough in the season that Black can’t earn a full year of service time, at least not the traditional way. A major league season is 187 days long but a player needs 172 days in the big leagues, or on the major league injured list, to get to the one-year mark. Since we’re over a month into the 2024 campaign already, Black can’t quite make it to that line.

The current collective bargaining agreement contains measures to disincentive service time manipulation, by rewarding clubs for promotion top prospects while also allowing such players a path to getting one year of service even if held down. If a player is on two of the three top 100 lists at BA, MLB Pipeline or ESPN, they are considered eligible for the prospect promotion incentive, which applies to Black since he’s on all three.

Had the Brewers promoted Black earlier in the year, they could have earned themselves an extra draft pick depending on how he performed in awards voting, but that won’t be in play now. Black will be able to earn a full service year if he can finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting, the other new measure in the CBA, though he will have an uphill battle in achieving that. Players like Shota Imanaga Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jared Jones, Jackson Merrill, Masyn Winn and others have already had a head start of over a month to rack up stats while Black is just getting started.

Even if he comes up short of the one-year mark here in 2024, he would be in line for Super Two status after the 2026 campaign if he can stay up in the big leagues from this point forward. He would be able to go through arbitration four times instead of three before being slated for free agency after 2030, though future optional assignments could delay either of those trajectories.

NL Central Notes: Imanaga, Pirates, Brewers, Carpenter, Reds

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Before the Cubs signed Shota Imanaga to a four-year, $53MM deal, the other finalists for Imanaga’s services were the Red Sox, Pirates, and Brewers, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.  Boston’s interest in Imanaga was well-known, and Pittsburgh had also been linked to Imanaga’s market, even if the Bucs’ traditional lack of spending makes it somewhat surprising to learn that they apparently came relatively close to landing the southpaw.  Of course, “finalist” is a bit of a nebulous term, and it isn’t known just how close the Pirates might’ve come to Chicago in the bidding.  For instance, the Red Sox offered Imanaga two years and $26MM in guaranteed money according to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, with two more vesting years covering the 2026 and 2027 seasons.

The Brewers are also a surprise entry, as it wasn’t publicly known that they were in on Imanaga at all, let alone one of the last four suitors in the running for his services.  Milwaukee also often operates with a limited payroll (albeit not as limited as the Pirates’ budget), and it’s interesting to speculate on what the team might’ve offered Imanaga, or whether signing the Japanese star might’ve kept from the Crew from any of their other winter business.  For instance, if the Brewers had signed Imanaga, would they have still had enough spending capacity to bring back Brandon Woodruff and/or Wade Miley, or would any further pitching additions would’ve been strictly of the lower-cost or minor league variety if Imanaga had been the team’s big offseason strike.  As Nightengale observes, any of Imanaga’s other suitors might have some regrets given how the left-hander has gotten his MLB career off to such a great start.

Some other notes from around the NL Central…

  • Matt Carpenter recently received a cortisone shot to deal with the oblique strain that has kept him on the injured list for almost four weeks, MLB.com’s John Denton writes (X link).  The shot led to a shutdown, and it isn’t clear when Carpenter will be ready to begin a minor league rehab assignment, though he has been able to take batting practice.  Carpenter reunited with the Cardinals on a one-year deal this past winter, but played in just three games before suffering his oblique problem.
  • X-rays were negative on both Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Tyler Stephenson after the Reds duo were each hit on the hand by pitches in Saturday’s game.  Encarnacion-Strand might be the slightly more serious situation of the two, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes that the infielder’s X-ray revealed a small previous fracture in the same spot that CES was hit on Saturday.  Encarnacion-Strand said he had “no clue” about the origin of the older injury, and he hadn’t felt any discomfort prior to this most recent HBP.  It isn’t yet clear if Encarnacion-Strand will get an MRI to further explore the injury, but he hoped to return to the lineup within a day or two.

NL Central Notes: Wicks, Junis, Carlson

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The Cubs are in for their second bullpen game in as many days tomorrow, as Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune was among those to relay that left-hander Jordan Wicks has been scratched from his scheduled start tomorrow due to forearm tightness. Right-hander Hayden Wesneski will start the game in Wicks’s place just three days after pitching 2 1/3 scoreless frames against the Astros Thursday afternoon.

It’s not currently clear how serious Wicks’s injury is or if a stint on the injured list will be required, but a lengthy absence would be a major blow to the Cubs. The club’s first-round pick in the 2021 draft, Wicks has pitched solidly for the Cubs through five starts this season, posting a roughly league average 4.70 ERA and a much stronger 3.25 FIP in 23 innings of work. An trip to the shelf for Wicks would further exacerbate Chicago’s early-season injury woes. Hurlers Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly, and Julian Merryweather are all currently on the injured list (though the former may be back soon) while the positional corps has lost both Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger from its outfield mix.

The laundry list of injuries has left the Cubs somewhat thin in terms of rotation options, with both Ben Brown and now Wesneski stepping in to make starts after previously pitching out of the bullpen for the big league club. Chicago signed veteran right-hander Julio Teheran to a minor league deal in earlier this month, and the 33-year-old righty and lefty Thomas Pannone among the club’s top non-roster depth options for the rotation.

More from the NL Central…

  • Brewers right-hander Jakob Junis suffered a scary incident earlier this week when he was struck by an errant fly ball during the club’s pregame workouts prior to a game against the Pirates in Pittsburgh. Fortunately, Junis is back traveling with the team and spoke to Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel yesterday. The right-hander noted that he underwent an MRI and CT scan, both of which came back clean, before he was released from the hospital. Now that he’s back with the team, it appears Junis is set to continue rehabbing from the shoulder impingement that has cost him most of the season to this point. Per MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy, Brewers manager Pat Murphy recently indicated that the club may look to bring Junis back into the fold as a reliever rather than build him up to start. It’s something of a surprise given the recent injuries suffered by lefties DL Hall and Wade Miley, though it’s possible that a multi-inning relief role could allow the Brewers to maximize Junis’s innings in the short-term.
  • Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson has missed the entire season to this point after suffering a sprained AC joint in his left shoulder just before Opening Day. Fortunately, however, it appears that the 25-year-old could be nearing his season debut. According to MLB.com’s Injury Tracker, Carlson is set to begin a rehab assignment in the near future if he comes out of a hitting session today pain-free. The return of Carlson would be most welcome for St. Louis, as the club recently optioned struggling youngster Jordan Walker to the minor leagues. With Carlson and Tommy Edman both on the injured list, that’s left the club to rely on Michael Siani and Alec Burleson as major contributors to the outfield mix alongside Lars Nootbaar and Brendan Donovan.

Wade Miley To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Brewers left-hander Wade Miley needs repair on the ulnar collateral ligament in his left elbow, per Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. The lefty will be undergoing Tommy John surgery, per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. McCalvy adds that Miley will spend the next 10 to 12 months rehabbing from the surgery before deciding if he will continue his career. McCalvy adds in a second tweet that Miley is leaning towards coming back. “I’ve always said I want to go out on my own [terms],” he said. “I still feel like I’ve got more in the tank.”

The news of the surgery doesn’t come as a total shock. He was placed on the injured list earlier this week with elbow inflammation and was clearly trying to avoid thinking of the possibility of going under the knife. “I don’t want to be concerned,” he said a few days ago. “Obviously, the ugly thought probably ends it for me, so I’m trying not to take myself there right now. I don’t know if I’d be willing to go through something like that and I’m hoping it’s nothing to that extent. But like I said, without imaging, we won’t know.”

Since then, despite getting the bad news, he seems to have turned a corner in terms of his acceptance of the situation. As mentioned up top, he’s now leaning towards coming back. Rosiak relays a two-minute clip on X of Miley discussing the situation, in which he actually seems sort of optimistic at times. “Weirdly, kind of excited,” he says. “Get this thing fixed and maybe I can pitch without pain for a little bit, you know? I’ve been dealing with elbow stuff for four, five years now. Looking on the bright side, if we get this thing fixed up, who knows?”

It’s true that Miley, 37, has been dealing with his share of injury setbacks in recent years. From 2012 to 2017, he tossed at least 157 innings in six straight seasons, posting a combined 4.37 earned run average in that time. But in 2018, he only got to 80 2/3 innings, missing a couple of months due to an oblique strain. He got up to 167 1/3 in 2019 but then fell shy of 15 innings in the shortened 2020 season, missing time due to a groin strain and a shoulder strain.

He was able to stay healthy enough in 2021 to log 163 innings over 28 starts, but then was capped at 37 frames in 2022, spending time on the IL due to elbow inflammation and a shoulder strain. There was another uptick last year, as he got to 23 starts and 120 1/3 innings, though a lat strain and elbow discomfort did separately send him to the IL a couple of times.

Now he’s unfortunately going to have to endure the lengthiest absence of his career and it seems there’s at least some possibility he never comes back. Given his comments today, it seems more likely that he’ll try to return at some point in 2025, but he’ll have plenty of time to think about it.

He signed a one-year deal with the Brewers in the offseason, which comes with a mutual option. Those options are almost never picked up by both sides and the surgery makes it a certainty that the Brewers will decline their end, sending Miley back to the open market.

Free agent pitchers that are coming off a notable surgery such as this will often sign two-year deals, with the signing club knowing that they may not get much return on their investment in the first season while the pitcher is hurt. Miley will be an interesting case since he’s already 37 years old, with his next birthday in November. A two-year deal would therefore be covering his age-38 and age-39 seasons, a few years older than most pitchers who sign such deals. But he’s still been effective when on the mound, as he had a 3.14 ERA with Milwaukee just last year.

For now, the Brewers will have to move forward with yet another starter subtracted from their rotation mix. Brandon Woodruff required shoulder surgery late last year and it’s questionable whether or not he can return this year. Corbin Burnes was traded to the Orioles in the winter. DL Hall and Jakob Junis are both currently on the IL and now Miley is going to miss the rest of the year.

Their current rotation consists of Freddy Peralta, Colin Rea, Joe Ross, Tobias Myers and Bryse Wilson. Ross hardly pitched over the previous two years due to various injuries. Myers just made his major league debut this week while Wilson was just moved in from the bullpen, having not had a regular starting gig since 2022.

There’s plenty of uncertainty in that group, but the club is managing to hold onto the division lead for now. Coming into today, they are half a game up on the Cubs, with the three other clubs not far behind. As the season rolls along, improved health from Hall or Junis could play a factor, or perhaps prospect Robert Gasser could work his way into the mix. But it also wouldn’t be a surprise to see the club searching for pitching at this summer’s deadline, given the setbacks they’ve been dealt.

Brewers Place Wade Miley On Injured List With Elbow Inflammation

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April 25: The initial wave of imaging on Miley was inconclusive, manager Pat Murphy tells the team’s beat (X link via Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). He’s headed for further testing — an arthrogram, specifically — to determine if there’s any ligament damage in his elbow.

April 22: The Brewers announced a series of transactions today, most notably placing left-hander Wade Miley on the 15-day injured list due to left elbow inflammation, retroactive to April 19. Right-hander Tobias Myers was recalled in a corresponding move. Also, first baseman Jake Bauers was reinstated from the bereavement list with infielder Andruw Monasterio optioned to Triple-A Nashville.

At this point, it’s unclear if the Brewers expect the injury to be serious, but there’s always some level of concern when a pitcher’s throwing elbow is involved. Per Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the left-hander is going to get some imaging done tomorrow and Miley says he is trying to fight back the negative thoughts in his head. “I don’t want to be concerned,” he says at the end of the clip in the link from Hogg. “Obviously, the ugly thought probably ends it for me, so I’m trying not to take myself there right now. I don’t know if I’d be willing to go through something like that and I’m hoping it’s nothing to that extent. But like I said, without imaging, we won’t know.”

Miley, 37, has had plenty of injury scares in recent years, only twice getting to 125 innings since 2017. In 2022, he missed time both due to elbow inflammation and a shoulder strain in his throwing arm, logging just 37 innings. He got up to 120 1/3 frames last year but also missed time due to a lat strain and some elbow discomfort. Here in 2024, he started the season on the IL due to a shoulder impingement, came back to make two starts and is now heading to the IL again.

The “ugly thought” he alluded to presumably refers to Tommy John surgery, which generally requires something in the range of 14-18 months to recover from. At this point in the calendar, that would wipe out the rest of Miley’s 2024 season and much of the 2025 campaign as well. If he were to go through all that, he would be nearing his 39th birthday by the time he got back to a mound. Based on his comments, it sounds like it’s not a road he wants to go down or even think about right now.

The club will surely provide more information when they have it, but it will be a challenging situation for them regardless due to some other injuries in their rotation. Brandon Woodruff had shoulder surgery last year and won’t be an option until late in 2024 season, if at all. Jakob Junis has been on the IL for a couple of weeks due to a shoulder impingement while DL Hall was placed on the IL just yesterday due to a left knee sprain.

That leaves Milwaukee with a rotation consisting of Freddy Peralta, Colin Rea and Joe Ross for the time being. The recent IL placements of Hall and Miley mean they will have to scramble to fill a couple of spots. Reaching into the minors leagues will also have injury complications as Robert Gasser, one of the club’s top prospects, hasn’t yet pitched in Triple-A due to a bone spur in his left elbow.

Myers, 25, was added to the club’s roster last week but was optioned the next day without getting into a game and is still looking to make his major league debut. He has been pitching multi-inning stints in the minors and could perhaps take on some bulk work for the Brewers. Bryse Wilson has past starting experience and has been throwing multi-inning stints in the big leagues this year, so he’s another option. Aaron Ashby and Janson Junk are also on the 40-man roster and could be recalled to provide some length.

The Brewers are currently 14-6 and sitting atop the National League Central, but the ongoing rotation issues will make it a challenge to hang onto that spot. The team and Miley will obviously be hoping that tomorrow’s imaging doesn’t find anything concerning and that the lefty can rejoin the club after a brief respite.

Brewers Place DL Hall On 15-Day Injured List

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The Brewers have placed left-hander DL Hall on the 15-day injured list due to a left knee sprain.  Left-hander Jared Koenig was called up from Triple-A Nashville to take Hall’s place on the active roster.

As manager Pat Murphy told MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy and other reporters, Hall hurt his knee while fielding a bunt single from Michael Siani in the second inning.  The southpaw ended up lasting 3 2/3 innings and allowing four runs on five walks and five hits, though the sprain can’t be blamed for all these struggles, as Hall had already given up three walks and two hits before Siani’s single.

It remains to be seen how much time Hall could miss, as while Murphy described the strain as “mild,” the injury was still under evaluation.  However, the 15-day absence only adds to what has been a dreadful start to both Hall’s 2024 season and his Brewers tenure altogether.

Acquired from the Orioles as part of the Corbin Burnes trade package, Hall worked almost exclusively as a reliever in his two previous MLB seasons in Baltimore, but the Brewers opted to stretch him out as a starter.  The results haven’t been pretty — Hall has a 7.71 ERA, 15.5% strikeout rate, and an 11.9% walk rate across four starts and 16 1/3 innings.  Murphy told reporters yesterday that things would have to improve in order for Hall to stick in Milwaukee’s rotation, though this injury could put that decision on hold for at least a couple of weeks.

McCalvy figures that Bryse Wilson will likely be moved into the rotation in Hall’s place for the time being, both because of Wilson’s recent experience as a spot starter and due to a relative lack of other healthy options.  Hall joins Jakob Junis on the big league injured list, and top prospect Robert Gasser is on the IL at Triple-A.  Koenig has some starting experience but has worked primarily as a reliever since the start of the 2023 campaign, so it seems likelier that he’ll just replace Wilson in the long relief role.

NL Central Notes: Hall, Happ, Reds

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Left-hander DL Hall was a key piece of the return that the Brewers landed in the Corbin Burnes trade, and the club made clear upon acquiring him that Hall would be used as a member of the starting rotation despite the 25-year-old having been used almost exclusively out of the bullpen during his time in Baltimore. That experiment hasn’t gone well through Hall’s first four starts, however. Not only does Hall currently sport a 7.71 ERA with a walk rate (11.9%) that nearly matches his deflated strikeout rate (15.4%), but he’s also failed to record an out in the fifth inning in three of his four starts with the club.

Given those considerable struggles, it’s not necessarily surprising that Brewers manager Pat Murphy indicated after Hall’s start Saturday that the club might look to shift gears if Hall can’t get things on track. In conversation with reporters (including MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy) that evening, Murphy admitted that “there’s got to be adjustments made” for Hall to remain a member of the rotation, adding that the club “can’t keep letting him throw 3 1/3 and say ’that’s fine.'”

Hall is currently joined in the rotation by Freddy Peralta, Wade Miley, Colin Rea, and Joe Ross. Should the young southpaw find himself moved to the bullpen at some point, left-hander Aaron Ashby is one candidate to step into a rotation role, though he’s dealt with struggles of his own to this point in the season. Ashby was blown up in his lone big league start this year, allowing eight runs (four earned) in 3 2/3 frames. His time in the minors hasn’t gone much better, with a 9.28 ERA in three starts. If Ashby continues to be unable to get results, the Brewers may be best served simply waiting for right-hander Jakob Junis to return from the injured list after being sidelined by a shoulder impingement for the last two weeks before considering a change in Hall’s usage.

More from the NL Central…

  • Cubs left fielder Ian Happ was removed from Friday’s game against the Marlins in the seventh inning due to what manager Craig Counsell described to reporters (including Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network) as left hamstring tightness. Counsell described the move as “precautionary” at the time, though Happ was noticeably absent from both games in the club’s doubleheader on Saturday. It’s not yet clear if Happ will ultimately require a trip to the injured list for the issue, though it makes sense for the Cubs to be cautious regarding their left fielder after he suffered a mild strain of the same hamstring during Spring Training last month. Alexander Canario filled in for Happ yesterday in left field, while Mike Tauchman and Patrick Wisdom have combined to handle right field in the aftermath of Seiya Suzuki’s oblique injury.
  • Reds right-hander Ian Gibaut has missed the entire 2024 season to this point due to discomfort in his right forearm, and the club announced yesterday that he had been returned from his rehab assignment following “renewed” discomfort in the area. Per MLB.com’s injury tracker, manager David Bell recently indicated that Gibaut could resume his rehab assignment at some point this week. Even so, it’s unwelcome news for a Reds club that leaned heavily on the right-hander last year as he pitched to a strong 3.33 ERA in 75 2/3 innings of work. With Gibaut out of commission, the Reds have relied on Fernando Cruz and Emilio Pagan to set up for closer Alexis Diaz.

Odell Jones Passes Away

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Former big league right-hander Odell Jones has passed away, per John Perrotto of Pittsburgh Baseball Now. No cause of death was given for Jones, who was 71.

Born in California in 1953, Jones was signed by the Pirates as an undrafted free agent in 1971. He made his debut with that club in 1975 but tossed just three innings. He got a more proper run of play in the show in 1977, tossing 108 innings for the Bucs in a swing role. He posted an earned run average of 5.08 over 15 starts and 19 relief appearances.

Jones would go on to bounce around the league, serving in various roles. He was traded to the Mariners in 1978 and then back to the Pirates in 1980. He went to the Rangers in the 1982 Rule 5 draft and recorded 10 saves for them in 1983. He later signed with the Orioles and Blue Jays, though he didn’t make it to the majors with the latter club.

For many baseball fans, Jones is best known for one magical night where almost everything lined up for him. He was with the Brewers in 1988 as a 35-year-old journeyman. Teddy Higuera was supposed to start against Cleveland on May 28 but was dealing with some back spasms, per JD Radcliffe of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, which led to Jones taking the ball instead.

Though he wasn’t even the scheduled starter, Jones had the best performance of his life that night. He was perfect through seven, until he issued a one-out walk to Mel Hall. He kept his no-hitter going into the ninth, until it was broken up by a one-out single off the bat of Ron Washington, now the manager of the Angels. Dan Plesac came into to get the final two outs as the Brewers beat Cleveland 2-0 (boxscore here at Baseball Reference).

That was the final big league season for Jones, who finished his career with a 4.42 ERA in 549 1/3 innings over nine different major league seasons. MLBTR joins the baseball world in sending our condolences to the Jones family as well as his fans and friends throughout the game.

Red Sox Acquire Vladimir Gutierrez

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The Red Sox announced Thursday evening that they’ve acquired right-hander Vladimir Gutierrez from the Brewers in exchange for cash and optioned him to Triple-A Worcester. Milwaukee designated Gutierrez for assignment earlier in the week. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster, Boston transferred injured shortstop Trevor Story from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL. Story underwent season-ending shoulder surgery last week. The Sox also announced that lefty Joe Jacques was optioned to Worcester following today’s game.

The 28-year-old Gutierrez originally signed with the Reds on a hefty $4.75MM bonus (plus a 100% tax on that bonus) in 2016 after defecting from his native Cuba. He profiled as one of Cincinnati’s top pitching prospects for a few years before making his MLB debut in 2021. The 6’1″, 205-pound righty pitched 150 2/3 innings for the Reds from 2021-22, turning in a 5.44 ERA with a 17.3% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate that were both worse than league-average.

Despite those struggles, Gutierrez would likely have received a longer look with the Reds — had he remained healthy. His elbow had other ideas, as a torn ulnar collateral ligament in ’22 led to Tommy John surgery. Gutierrez returned to the mound to toss a handful of minor league innings last September but didn’t get back to the big leagues. He was removed from Cincinnati’s 40-man roster and became a free agent following the season. After a few showcases for big league scouts, he signed a minor league deal with the Marlins.

It’s been a whirlwind three weeks for Gutierrez, who was selected to the Marlins’ 40-man roster and pitched four innings of long relief to help spare their taxed bullpen. That four-inning appearance meant he’d be unavailable for several days, so the Fish designated him for assignment to clear space for another fresh arm in the ’pen. Miami surely hoped to be able to pass Gutierrez through waivers and keep him as a depth option, but the Brewers scooped him up off waivers on April 5. He was rocked for seven runs in 4 2/3 innings in his lone Triple-A start with Milwaukee, who designated Gutierrez themselves in order to bring fellow righty Tobias Myers up to the MLB roster.

Now with his third team in a span of three weeks, Gutierrez will hope to get into a groove in Worcester and pitch his way into a big league opportunity. The Red Sox lost Lucas Giolito for the season before Opening Day, and they’ve more recently placed Garrett Whitlock (oblique strain) and Nick Pivetta (flexor strain) on the injured list. That leaves the Sox with a rotation including Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck and Cooper Criswell. Veteran Chase Anderson is on hand as a long man in the ’pen and could move into the rotation following Whitlock’s IL placement just yesterday. Gutierrez joins lefty Brandon Walter and righty Naoyuki Uwasawa as a rotation depth option on the 40-man roster.

Which Hot Or Cold Starts Are For Real?

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The 2024 season is just a few weeks old. There’s still a lot of time for narratives to shift and plenty of exciting or deflating changes are surely coming up over the horizon. Nonetheless, the games in April count just as much as the games in September. Some clubs have already banked some valuable wins while others have put themselves in a real hole.

Looking at the FanGraphs Playoff Odds today and comparing them to where they were ahead of the Seoul Series, there are five clubs that have increased their postseason chances by more than 10%. Meanwhile, six clubs have seen their odds drop by more than 10%. Which of those are just small-sample blips and which are signs that the club’s talent level is meaningfully different than expected? Let’s take a glance.

Orioles

The defending champions of the American League East were given just a 51.8% chance of making it back to the postseason, per the FanGraphs odds from before any games had been played. They have started out 12-6 and seen their odds jump to 76.5% today, a difference of 24.7%.

Baltimore continues to get huge contributions from its young core and role players alike. Jackson Holliday’s big league career is out to a slow start, but others have picked up the slack, with Colton Cowser, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and Cedric Mullins off and running. Even Ryan O’Hearn, who was acquired in a small cash deal from the Royals, continues to thrive. On the pitching side, Corbin Burnes has been the expected ace while Grayson Rodriguez continues to cement himself as a quality big league arm. There are some question marks at the back end with Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin out to wobbly starts, but Kyle Bradish and John Means are both on minor league rehab assignments and could rejoin the club soon.

The 18 games they have played so far have come against the Angels, Royals, Pirates, Red Sox, Brewers and Twins.

Royals

The Royals entered the season with playoff odds of just 13.1% but they have gone 12-7 so far, bumping themselves up to 33.2%, a difference of 20.1%.

An improved rotation gets a lot of the credit. Between last year’s trade for Cole Ragans, the offseason signings of Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, as well as the emergence of Alec Marsh, it’s a whole new look alongside Brady Singer. None of those five have an ERA higher than 4.32 so far this year. On the position player side of things, Bobby Witt Jr. is further proving himself to be a superstar, while Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino are healthy and productive.

They have faced the Twins, Orioles, White Sox, Astros and Mets thus far.

Yankees

The Yanks had strong odds to begin with, starting out at 71.2%. A hot start of 13 wins and 6 losses has already bumped those all the way to 85.9%, a jump of 14.7%.

Health was a big factor for the Yankees last year, with players like Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton, Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodón all missing significant time. This year, Gerrit Cole is on the shelf, as is LeMahieu. But new face Juan Soto has been great so far, while Stanton, Cortes and Rodón are back in decent form.

The injuries or lack thereof will probably remain a focus for the months to come, especially with so many key players in their mid-30s. Last year, the club was 45-36 through the end of June, but mounting injuries led to them going 20-33 through July and August.

They have started their season by playing the Astros, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Marlins and Guardians.

Brewers

The National League Central is arguably the most up-for-grabs, with the five clubs fairly close in terms of talent. Despite being the reigning division champs, the Brewers were given just a 30.6% chance of making the postseason, below the Cardinals and Cubs. They’ve started out 11-6 and are now at 43.5%, a 12.9% bump.

There have been quite a few nice performance on the offensive side of things. Willy Adames had a bit of a down year in 2023 but is off to a good start in this campaign. Brice Turang and Blake Perkins are also putting up better numbers than last year. Joey Ortiz has done well since coming over from the Orioles in the Burnes trade. The loss of Burnes and the injury to Brandon Woodruff left the club without their co-aces, but Freddy Peralta has stepped up with a 2.55 ERA and 39.4% strikeout rate through his first three starts.

They have faced off against the Mets, Twins, Mariners, Reds, Orioles and Padres so far.

Mets

After a disastrous 2023 season and a relatively quiet winter, the Mets opened this year with their odds at 27.6%. A 10-8 start has already bumped them to 38.7%, an 11.1% difference.

They have been especially strong of late, as they started out 0-5 but have gone 10-3 over their last 13 contests. The bounceback plays on Luis Severino and Sean Manaea seem to be going well so far. Edwin Díaz is healthy again and already has four saves. On the position player side, Brett Baty seems to be taking a step forward. DJ Stewart is carrying over last year’s hot finish, and the Tyrone Taylor pickup looks like a nice move.

They have lined up against the Brewers, Tigers, Reds, Braves, Royals and Pirates.

Giants

The Giants added plenty of talent this winter and opened the season with playoff odds of 44.6%. But an 8-11 start has already dropped them to 34%, a difference of 10.6%.

Stretching out Jordan Hicks is going great so far, but Blake Snell showed a lot of rust in his first two starts after signing late in the offseason. On offense, acquisitions like Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman and Nick Ahmed have produced subpar offense, and the same goes for incumbents like Mike Yastrzemski, Wilmer Flores and Thairo Estrada.

They have squared off against the Padres, Dodgers, Nationals, Rays and Marlins thus far.

Cardinals

Despite a dreadful 2023 campaign, expectations were high for the Cards coming into this year after they remade their rotation. But a middling start of 9-10 has dropped their playoff odds from 50.1% to 38.7%, a difference of 11.4%.

Injuries have been playing a notable role in the early going for the Cards, with Sonny Gray, Lars Nootbaar, Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson and others missing time. The Lance Lynn signing looks good so far, as he has a 2.18 ERA through four starts, but Kyle Gibson is at 6.16. Both the veteran Paul Goldschmidt and the youngster Jordan Walker are out to terrible starts at the plate. The Cardinals’ long list of injuries opened up playing time for guys like Alec Burleson and Victor Scott II, who have each struggled immensely.

They have faced the Dodgers, Padres, Marlins, Phillies, Diamondbacks and Athletics to this point.

Mariners

The Mariners just missed the playoffs last year but still opened this season with a 60.8% chance of getting back there. A tepid start of 9-10 has seen those odds slide to 49.1%, a difference of 11.7%. Things were even more dire before they swept the Reds this week, as they were 6-10 prior to that.

The rotation has surprisingly been a problem thus far. An injury to Bryan Woo bumped Emerson Hancock into the rotation, but Hancock has an ERA of 7.98 through three starts. Each of Luis Castillo and George Kirby also have poor results, though those may be based on luck. Both have a high BABIP and low strand rate, so both have a FIP just above 3.00, about three runs lower than their ERA.

Julio Rodríguez is the biggest disappointment on the position player side. He is striking out at a 34.6% clip and walking just 5.1% of the time while still looking for his first home of the year, leading to a line of .219/.269/.260. Luke Raley, Mitch Garver and J.P. Crawford have also looked lost at the plate, with none of that trio posting a wRC+ higher than 75 so far.

The M’s have played the Red Sox, Guardians, Brewers, Blue Jays, Cubs and Reds.

Marlins

The Fish swam into the playoffs last year, their first postseason berth in a full season in 20 years. They followed that with an offseason mostly focused on overhauling their front office and player development system. A disastrous 4-15 start has already dropped this year’s playoff odds from 27.9% to 2.3%, a difference of 25.6%.

Injuries have been a huge factor, as the club’s former starting pitching surplus quickly became a deficit. Sandy Alcántara required Tommy John surgery last year, and Eury Pérez followed him down that path this year. Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett also missed some time due to shoulder troubles. A.J. Puk’s attempted move from the bullpen to the rotation is not going well so far, and Jesús Luzardo is struggling badly. Max Meyer was doing well but he was optioned to the minors to monitor his workload after he missed all of last year recovering from his own Tommy John procedure. The offense has been pretty bad across the board, as not a single member of the team has a wRC+ of 105 or higher. Jake Burger hit the injured list earlier this week, removing one of their top power bats from that already weak group.

They faced the Pirates, Angels, Cardinals, Yankees, Braves and Giants to start the year and have yet to win back-to-back games.

Astros

The Astros have been a powerhouse for years and opened this season with an 86.2% chance of returning to the postseason. But they have stumbled out of the gates this year with a record of 6-14, dropping their odds to 59.7%, a 26.5% drop.

Like some of the other clubs mentioned above, health has been a big factor here. Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia each underwent elbow surgery last year and are still rehabbing. So far this year, the Astros have lost Justin Verlander, José Urquidy and Framber Valdez to the IL, giving them a full rotation on the shelf. (Verlander will return tomorrow.)

With those prominent arms not around, others haven’t really picked up the slack. Hunter Brown has an ERA of 10.54 through four starts while J.P. France is at 7.08. Prospect Spencer Arrighetti was called up to fill in but has been tagged for nine runs over seven innings in his two outings. Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu have surprisingly been bad out of the bullpen, with each having an ERA of 6.00 or higher. On offense, José Abreu has been awful, hitting .078/.158/.098. That performance got him bumped down in the lineup, and he’s been ceding playing time to Jon Singleton lately.

The Astros began the year playing the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, Royals and Braves.

Twins

The Twins are the reigning champs in the American League Central but made some budget cuts this winter. Their 6-11 start has moved their playoff odds from 66% to 38.6%, a shift of 27.4%.

Once again, injuries are a big part of the story here. Oft-injured Royce Lewis went down with a quad strain on Opening Day, and Carlos Correa followed him later, subtracting the club’s left side of the infield. The only guys with at least 30 plate appearances and a wRC+ above 100 are Ryan Jeffers, Alex Kirilloff and the currently-injured Correa. Multiple injured relievers, most notably Jhoan Durán, have left the bullpen shorthanded.

In the rotation, the club lost Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle from last year’s club, but their main attempt at replacing those guys was to acquire Anthony DeSclafani on the heels of a pair of injury-wrecked seasons. He required flexor tendon surgery and will miss the rest of the year. The incumbents haven’t been much help. Chris Paddack, Louie Varland and Bailey Ober each have an ERA above 6.50, though Ober has rebounded after being shelled for eight runs in just 1 1/3 innings in his season debut.

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Some of these are probably just flukes, and the results will even out over the rest of the season, but some of these clubs might be showing us who they really are. Which ones do you believe in? Have your say in the polls below, the first one for the hot starts and the second one for the cold starts. (Note: you can select multiple options in each poll.)

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