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Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

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Last offseason, the Brewers lost their manager, traded away their best starting pitcher and lost another to injury. During the season, several more injuries popped up but the club overcame all that adversity to repeat as National League Central champions. They'll now have to overcome a crushing postseason loss, the likely departure of their shortstop and declining broadcast revenue.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Christian Yelich, OF: $110.5MM through 2028 (includes $6.5MM buyout on '29 mutual option; deal to be paid out through '42 due to deferrals)
  • Jackson Chourio, OF: $78MM through 2031 (including $2MM buyout on first of two club options)
  • Aaron Ashby, LHP: $17.25MM through 2027 (including $1MM buyout on first of two club options)
  • Brandon Woodruff, RHP: $15MM through 2025 (including $10MM buyout on '26 mutual option)

Additional Financial Commitments

Option Decisions

  • 1B Rhys Hoskins has $18MM player option for 2025 with $4MM buyout, deal also has $18MM mutual option for 2026 with $4MM buyout
  • Team, RHP Frankie Montas hold $20MM mutual option with $2MM buyout
  • Team, LHP Wade Miley hold $12MM mutual option with $1.5MM buyout
  • Team holds $10.5MM club option on RHP Devin Williams with a $250K buyout (Williams can be retained via arbitration even if option is declined)
  • Team, C Gary Sánchez hold $11MM mutual option with $4MM buyout
  • Team holds $5.5MM club option on RHP Colin Rea with $1MM buyout
  • Team holds $8MM club option on RHP Freddy Peralta with $1.5MM buyout

Total 2025 commitments (assuming Hoskins opts in, club triggers options on Rea and Peralta while turning down Williams and all mutual options): $92.5MM
Total future commitments (assuming Hoskins opts in, club triggers options on Rea and Peralta while turning down Williams and all mutual options): $265MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Bauers, Wilson, Haase

Free Agents

The Brewers have faced a lot of challenges in the past year. Manager Craig Counsell seemed intent on pushing forward the market for managers, willing to go from Milwaukee to the highest bidder. For a small-market club like the Brewers, they weren't going to get drawn into a bidding war to keep him, so he went to the division rival Cubs as Milwaukee gave his old job to Pat Murphy. Brandon Woodruff required shoulder surgery about this time last year, which put him on ice for all of 2024. Corbin Burnes was traded to the Orioles in February.

Some of that was self-imposed, in a sense, but also a reflection of the club's perpetual financial situation. As one of the lower-spending clubs, they often trade their best players just before they get to free agency, with Burnes just the most recent example. That's not to say they were forced to do it, but it's understandable why they make such moves. The trade return is usually much more appealing than holding the player all the way until free agency and, in a best-case scenario, recouping draft compensation after the player rejects a qualifying offer and signs elsewhere.

All of that was before the season even started. Once spring training began, the challenges mounted. Closer Devin Williams was diagnosed with back fractures in March, setting him up to miss roughly the first half of the season. Wade Miley required Tommy John surgery in May, ending his season prematurely. Robert Gasser, called up to help cover for Miley, required his own UCL surgery in June. Christian Yelich didn't play after July 23 due to his lingering back problems, undergoing season-ending surgery in August.

Despite all of that, the Brewers managed to take the division, but fresh challenges now lie ahead. Shortstop Willy Adames is slated to become a free agent, a notable subtraction from their roster. Williams seems likely to be this year's candidate for a trade before reaching free agency, with general manager Matt Arnold recently admitting that the club will have to be "open-minded" about the possibility.

Meanwhile, the club will no longer have a broadcast relationship with Bally Sports/Diamond Sports Group. Their deal with Diamond ended in 2024 and they will now have Major League Baseball handling their broadcasts in direct-to-consumer fashion. Such an arrangement could be beneficial in the long run with the decay of the cable model but it's likely to lead to less revenue in the short term, which could further squeeze a club that always has payroll concerns.

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Brewers Manager Discusses Rotation Options

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The Brewers’ season came to a heartbreaking end last week, as they carried a lead into the ninth inning of their deciding game against the Mets in the Wild Card round, but the Mets put together a late rally and took the series. For Milwaukee, that means the focus has now shifted to 2025 and manager Pat Murphy recently discussed some topics related to the roster, with Curt Hogg rounding them up in a piece for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

One of the players Murphy discusses was Aaron Ashby. The lefty once looked like a budding starting before getting derailed by shoulder issues. He finished 2024 on a strong note out of the bullpen but it seems the skipper hasn’t given up on the possibility of the southpaw being a rotation option again in the future.

“If you’re asking me today if he belongs in that late inning role, I’d say no,” Murphy said. “I’d say he’s more of a candidate to throw more innings because his stuff is pretty special and there’s a variety there. That’s going to be discussed, the path. And it has to be player-driven. The player has to want certain things or at least be in a healthy discussion about it.”

Ashby showed his potential when he first came up to the big leagues. Over the 2021 and 2022 seasons, he tossed 139 innings in a swing role, making 23 starts and 17 relief appearances. He allowed 4.47 earned runs per nine innings but with better peripherals. He struck out 27.1% of batters faced, gave out walks at a 9.7% rate and kept balls in play on the ground at a 57.8% clip.

The Brewers clearly believed in what was ahead for Ashby, as they signed him to an extension during that 2022 campaign. The five-year deal guaranteed him $20.5MM and also came with club options for 2028 and 2029, valued at $9MM and $13MM respectively, with a $1MM buyout on the first one.

Unfortunately, the first year of that deal was wasted. Ashby dealt with shoulder problems in 2023 and eventually required arthroscopic surgery, not pitching in the majors at all. Here in 2024, Ashby had been relegated to a depth option. He spent most of the first half on optional assignment, being recalled twice to make spot starts.

In late August, Ashby was recalled from the minors and added to the Milwaukee bullpen. He tossed 19 2/3 innings over 12 appearances down the stretch, with excellent results. He had a 1.37 ERA, 36.8% strikeout rate, 3.9% walk rate and 51.1% ground ball rate.

Given those excellent results, there might be some temptation to just keep Ashby in a relief role, but it’s also understandable that the Brewers haven’t given up on the rotation path. A solid starter is more useful to a club than a good reliever, generally speaking, and the Brewers should be able to put together a bullpen without Ashby’s contributions. Even if Devin Williams is traded, which seems to be on the table, Milwaukee can turn to guys like Trevor Megill, Joel Payamps, Bryan Hudson and Jared Koenig for key bullpen roles.

The variety that Murphy referred to is indeed present, as Ashby threw five different pitches in the majors this year: a four-seamer, sinker, changeup, curveball and slider. It seems he had a bit of rust in harnessing that arsenal while getting over his lost season in 2023, as he walked 17.4% of batters faced in Triple-A this year while posting an 8.04 ERA. But as mentioned, he was able to get in a good grove by the end of the year.

Going forward, it seems Ashby can still try to carve out a rotation role if he wants one. Also in the rotation mix will be Tobias Myers, who Murphy views as a lock for a job. “In my thoughts, he’s a definite,” Murphy said. “But he’s got to go do it in the offseason. He’s got to come back out, recapture that mentality and recapture the arsenal, which isn’t always easy.”

It’s unsurprising that Myers has earned some job security after his strong performance in 2024. He pitched 138 innings for the Brewers this year with a flat 3.00 ERA. He had a 22.3% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate and 37.6% ground ball rate. He benefitted a bit from a .282 batting average on balls in play and 81.1% strand rate, but even his 3.91 FIP and 3.99 SIERA suggest he would have been solid without as much favor from the baseball gods.

There are some questions for the Brewers to answer in their rotation going forward. Freddy Peralta will be locked into one spot and it seems Myers will as well. Colin Rea posted a 4.29 ERA this year and the Brewers have a $5.5MM club option for 2025 with a $1MM buyout. That makes it a net $4.5MM decision, which is a bargain for a solid back-end starter. Guys like Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Luis Severino got one-year deals worth between $11MM and $13MM last offseason. The Brewers themselves gave $8.5MM to Wade Miley, though he unfortunately required Tommy John surgery early in the year.

Aaron Civale can be retained for 2025 but he will cost more than Rea. He’s eligible for arbitration and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a salary of $8MM next year. Given the aforementioned prices for back-end starters, that’s reasonable for Civale, who had a 4.36 ERA in 31 starts this year. But the Brewers generally work with tight budgets and might have less TV revenue coming in next year, so perhaps they might explore the trade market.

DL Hall is another option, as he worked both out of the rotation and bullpen in 2024. But he missed a lot of time due to a left knee sprain and wasn’t able to pile up a big sample of work. He finished the year with a 5.02 ERA across seven starts and six relief appearances.

Another big question mark will be Brandon Woodruff, who missed all of 2024 recovering from shoulder surgery. He’s under contract for 2025 but he’ll be a great unknown for next year, likely until spring training rolls around. Robert Gasser could return late next year after undergoing UCL surgery a few months ago. Jacob Misiorowski is one of the best pitching prospects in the league and he finished the year at Triple-A, but he also walked 14.4% of batters faced on the year and might still need some fine tuning.

Between Peralta, Myers, Woodruff, Ashby, Hall, Rea, Civale and Misiorowski, the Brewers have eight potential rotation options, though the long winter ahead could change the picture via additions or subtractions.

10 Players Elect Free Agency

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As the offseason nears, a number of players elect minor league free agency each week. These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. These transactions are all reflected on the MiLB.com log.

Outfielders

Pitchers

GM: Brewers To Stay “Open-Minded” On Possibility Of Trading Devin Williams

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Brewers general manager Matt Arnold held a press conference today on the heels of the club being eliminated from the playoffs last week. Arguably the most notable thing he said was in relation to closer Devin Williams. “We have to stay open-minded,” Arnold said, per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com on X. “We’re the smallest market in the league, so that’s something that’s required in this.”

Williams, 30, is slated to reach free agency one year from now. Due to the financial limitations that Arnold referenced, many Milwaukee players have found themselves in trade rumors as they have neared free agency. A player will generally see his salary increase as his window of club control narrows and the Brewers have often preferred to trade such players rather than holding them all the way to free agency.

Josh Hader, who preceded Williams as closer in Milwaukee, was flipped to the Padres at the 2022 deadline when he had just over a year of club control remaining. Corbin Burnes was traded to the Orioles last winter, when he was one year away from the open market. Hader initially came to the Brewers in the 2015 deadline deal that sent a year-plus of Carlos Gómez to Houston alongside Mike Fiers.

Not every Milwaukee player will be traded in this situation. Shortstop Willy Adames was in plenty of rumors last winter but ultimately stayed for his final season of club control. He is now likely to depart but the Brewers will receive compensation if that comes to pass. They will make him a qualifying offer at the start of the offseason and he is sure to reject that while pursuing a long-term deal.

The Brewers are unlikely to bank on the QO path with Williams. As a pitcher, there’s far more risk of him being hurt before getting to that point. The Brewers saw Brandon Woodruff felled by a shoulder injury when he was about a year away from free agency. He ultimately required surgery with a recovery time of more than a year, scuttling the chances of a trade or a qualifying offer. In that case, they agreed to a two-year deal to keep him around through 2025.

Williams himself was injured for much of 2024, missing time due to fractures in his back. On top of that, a QO salary would be steep for a reliever, even one that’s healthy and elite. This year’s QO is going to be $21.05MM and that number is likely to rise by this time next year. The best relievers can get in that vicinity in terms of average annual value. Edwin Díaz has an AAV of $20.4MM on his deal with the Mets while Hader got a $19MM AAV from the Astros.

Having Williams accept a QO for a one-year deal at a high rate wouldn’t be a drastic overpay but the Brewers likely prefer to exchange him for younger and controllable players now. Such trades helped them compose a decent chunk of their current roster. The Hader deal netted them Esteury Ruiz, who they were able to flip for William Contreras. Lefty Robert Gasser was also acquired in that deal, though he won’t be much of a factor in 2025 after undergoing UCL surgery a few months ago. The Burnes trade netted them DL Hall and Joey Ortiz. Hall was injured and ineffective for much of 2024 but could still be a key part of the club’s future, while Ortiz immediately established himself as a piece of the club’s infield and could perhaps replace Adames at short next year.

Williams won’t make a massive amount of money in 2025, relative to the context of Major League Baseball. The Brewers and the righty avoided arbitration last year by agreeing to a $7MM salary for 2024 with a $10.5MM club option and $250K buyout for 2025. They might go for that buyout, as Williams would still be controllable via arbitration even if they take that path. Since he missed significant time due to injury in 2024, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Williams for a $7.7MM arbitration salary next year.

Per RosterResource, the club had a payroll of $116MM in 2024 but has only $76MM committed for 2025. Triggering club options on Freddy Peralta and Colin Rea would get them close to the $90MM range while the club’s arbitration class is projected for about $37MM. A few non-tenders or trades could knock that down but the club will likely be starting the offseason with a similar payroll to what they had in 2024.

The club could perhaps see less revenue coming in on the broadcast side as their deal with Diamond Sports Group ended and they are pivoting to the direct-to-consumer model in 2025. That’s probably a smart move in the long run since Diamond has been going through the bankruptcy process for a year and a half now, but the cash flow might be a bit slower in the short term.

A salary in the $7-10MM range for a pitcher of Williams’ quality is very affordable, even for a club like the Brewers. Considering a trade would save the club a bit of money for 2025 but would likely be more about helping them compete down the line. Instead of keeping Williams for another year and seeing him depart, potentially for nothing, it makes sense to see if the club can get building-block pieces in return, as they did in the aforementioned deals.

The club will be looking to replace Adames, which could be accomplished via Ortiz or Brice Turang taking over at shortstop. But doing so would open up a hole at second or third base. Sal Frelick moving to third base was explored in 2024 and manager Pat Murphy said that is still on the table going forward, per McCalvy on X, but Frelick is still unproven at the position with only four innings there in 2024. The Brewers normally aren’t big players in free agency and might not have much budget room this winter, so the trade market might be their best bet at filling in the roster.

Despite the aforementioned injuries, Williams continued to perform when on the mound. While the postseason ended on a sour note as Williams blew a save in the club’s final game against the Mets, that was after he posted a 1.25 earned run average in his 22 appearances during the regular season. His 12.5% walk rate was above league average but fairly normal for him, as he struck out 43.2% of batters faced.

Overall, Williams now has a tiny 1.83 ERA over 241 career appearances in the regular season. He has worked around an 11.8% walk rate by striking out 39.4% of opponents and keeping balls in play on the ground at a 48.1% clip. He racked up 36 saves last year, stepping into Hader’s role as the closer, and saved another 14 this year after recovering from his back injury.

Trading Williams would hurt Milwaukee’s bullpen but they could perhaps replace Williams internally, the same way that Williams himself replaced Hader. Trevor Megill had a strong season with a 2.72 ERA. His 27.3% strikeout rate was far lower than Williams’, but he also had a lower walk rate of 7.7%, racking up 21 saves mostly while Williams was hurt. He is set to reach arbitration for the first time this winter with a projected salary of just $2MM and two more seasons of control after that. Guys like Aaron Ashby, Joel Payamps, Bryan Hudson and Jared Koenig also had strong results in 2024 and could be considered for moving up the chain going forward.

Ultimately, whether a trade comes together or not will depend on what the Brewers are offered. But Williams is an elite reliever with an affordable salary, so he should garner interest from just about any club with designs on contending in 2025. It’s not a guarantee that he will be moved but he’s one of the most logical trade candidates for the upcoming winter and the club’s GM essentially acknowledged that the phone lines are open.

MLB To Take Over Broadcasts For Twins, Guardians, Brewers In 2025

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Major League Baseball announced that it will take over the distribution of local broadcasts for the Twins, Guardians and Brewers in 2025. All three of those clubs previously had deals with Diamond Sports Group, which owns the Bally Sports Networks. But those deals all expired after 2024 and it was reported this week that Diamond is planning to make cutbacks to the number of teams on its slate of baseball broadcasts.

MLB will now be handling the broadcasts of at least six clubs, as it was already distributing for the Padres, Diamondbacks and Rockies. Fans will be able to sign up for direct-to-consumer streaming packages without blackouts, except for games that are being broadcasted nationally. The Rangers also saw their Diamond deal expire in 2024 but seem to be in a different situation for now. MLB announced that Texas wouldn’t be continuing with Diamond but are exploring local options for 2025.

The Regional Sports Network model has been decaying for many years and this news is latest part of the crumbling. For years, broadcasters would pay clubs for the right to have exclusive local broadcasting rights, which would often lead to frustration among fans. Baseball games were harder to access and some fans found themselves in the blackout areas of multiple different teams. However, these deals were a significant source of annual revenue for teams.

But as consumers cut cords and move away from buying cable packages, the model has been less effective and several deals have already fallen apart. Diamond has been going through the bankruptcy process since early in 2023. As mentioned, the Padres, Diamondbacks and Rockies didn’t have a local broadcasting deal for 2024. The Padres and Diamondbacks had previously been with Diamond while the Rockies were with AT&T SportsNet Rocky Mountain. Fans in those markets were able to pay MLB directly to watch the team in 2024, with no blackouts, for $19.99 per month or $99.99 for the year. Dan Hayes of The Athletic relays on X that the Twins will be charging a similar price next year.

While that was a nice development for many fans, it wasn’t good for the teams. By all accounts, the revenue generated from this model is lower than what the clubs were previously receiving from the cable model, as the latter led to a passive stream of revenue from fans who signed up for cable packages but didn’t watch much or any baseball. The direct-to-consumer model cuts out the middleman but is dependent on active fan interest.

The MLB announcement today says that the “reach” of the Guardians via RSN was 1.45 million homes, with the Twins at 1.08 million. The league relays that between four and five million homes will now have access to their local clubs via these streaming options, but not all of them will sign up and it’s unclear what sort of rates are to be expected. Twins president Dave St. Peter expects the club to receive less broadcast revenue in 2025, per Aaron Gleeman of the Athletic on X, though he added that he expects greater revenue in the future.

In short, the move is good for fans in terms of simply watching the games. But since it’s bad for the teams on the business side, it could have spillover effects into roster construction. Last offseason, declining broadcast revenue seemed to have significant ripple effects in terms of transactions. The Padres trading Juan Soto to the Yankees, for instance, seemed to be motivated by the Friars needing to make budget cuts. Teams like the Rangers, Twins and others either cut their payrolls or didn’t raise them as much as expected, which led to certain free agents having fewer suitors than anticipated and a weak market for free agents in general.

Whether this will have an immediate impact on the decisions of the Twins, Guardians and Brewers will remain to be seen. The Twins already cut their payroll significantly a year ago in the wake of uncertainty with Diamond. There was seemingly some chance of the deal collapsing before the Twins re-signed for another year but with reduced fees. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the payroll went from $154MM in 2023 to $127MM in 2024. Per recent reporting, the club isn’t planning further payroll cuts but it doesn’t appear as though an increase is coming either. Per Gleeman on X, St. Peter doesn’t think this news impacts the payroll relative to those recent reports as the club already knew this was coming.

The Rangers appear to be exploring a different path. Last month, it was reported by Tom Friend of the Sports Business Journal that the club is looking into developing their own direct-to-consumer streaming service, independent of MLB. Presumably, the benefit to handling it themselves would mean they reap more direct revenue, but they would also spend more on the day-to-day costs of running the operation. If they eventually find this path too challenging, it seems fair to assume that letting MLB take over would be a fallback option.

Uncertainty around the broadcast situation seemed to impact the Rangers last year. Though they won the 2023 World Series, they followed that up with a relatively modest offseason, not signing any deals larger than the two years and $22MM they gave to Tyler Mahle. How their current plan will play out perhaps has even less certainty than the other three clubs, so it will be an interesting situation to watch.

There will be other long-term questions to be answered in time. Commissioner Rob Manfred intends to market a streaming package consisting of multiple teams at some point in the future, perhaps as soon as 2025. MLB.TV has existed for years but with consumers affected by local blackout rules. The idea going forward would be to essentially make a blackout-free version of MLB.TV. There would be complications in such a plan, as clubs like the Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs and others handle their own games via broadcasters that are at least partially owned by the team. Given their relatively stable footing, they would have less interest in joining such a plan with the other clubs.

As for Diamond, they had deals with 12 clubs in 2024. It was recently revealed that they are only fully committed to one for 2025, which is Atlanta. As part of that reporting last week, Diamond was apparently willing to renegotiate with other clubs but wanted to pay reduced fees. It seems that won’t happen with the four clubs mentioned in today’s announcement, so the Diamond slate will be down to a maximum of eight clubs in 2025 but perhaps that will go even lower of some others decide to make a deal like this with MLB instead.

Diamond Sports Group Planning To Cut Ties With 11 MLB Clubs

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Diamond Sports Group said in court today that it plans to broadcast just one MLB club next year, the Braves, per reporting from Evan Drellich of The Athletic. The company, which owns the Bally Sports Networks, also had deals with the Reds, Tigers, Royals, Angels, Marlins, Cardinals, Rays but plans on walking away from those. As Drellich notes, as part of the company’s ongoing Chapter 11 bankruptcy process, they can accept and reject contracts though the measures have to be approved by the court. The Brewers, Guardians, Twins and Rangers had one-year deals with Diamond for 2024. Those 11 clubs will now have to renegotiate new deals with Diamond or find other broadcasting arrangements.

Drellich provides some more specifics on X, noting that it’s more complicated than Diamond simply abandoning these 11 clubs, but that seems to be the company’s goal regardless. Alden González of ESPN adds some more details, noting that a confirmation hearing has been set for November 14 and 15 in Houston. The Marlins and Diamond have mutual interest in working out a new deal, per a report from Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. The Angels are working on a new deal with Diamond, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register.

Per Drellich, league representatives said they were “sandbagged” by the news. “We have no information about what is being done,” said Jim Bromley, lawyer for MLB. “We’ve had no opportunity to review and now we’re in front of the court and being asked to make our comments.”

The ongoing financial situation of Diamond Sports Group has been a significant part of baseball’s economic landscape for a long time and this could prove to be a major development as part of that narrative. Largely due to cord cutting, the regional sports network model has been gradually collapsing in recent history. In the 2022-23 offseason, reports emerged that Diamond was in rough shape financially and the company filed for bankruptcy before the 2023 MLB season began.

They dropped their contracts with the Padres and Diamondbacks during that 2023 campaign. It threatened to do the same with the Guardians, Twins and Rangers for 2024 but ultimately renegotiated lower fees with those clubs and continued those broadcasts through this year. Now it seems like the company is continuing down this path but with an even more aggressive severing of their existing ties to Major League Baseball.

This is bound to have short-term effects on clubs and players. These contracts have been sources of significant revenue for clubs, as MLBTR covered earlier this year. The 11 teams that Diamond plans to cut ties with were previously receiving between $33MM (Brewers) and $125MM (Angels) on an annual basis. Per reporting in April, the Padres were set to receive about $60MM in 2023 before their deal with Diamond collapsed. The league reportedly covered about 80% of those fees last year but didn’t plan to do so in 2024 and beyond.

Uncertainty around broadcast revenue seemingly played a major role in the 2023-24 offseason, which was disappointing for players. Teams like the Padres, Rangers, Twins and others were either cutting payroll or not increasing it as much as had previously been expected, with the TV situation often being used as justification. This appeared to play a role in various free agents not finding markets as strong as they had anticipated and many of them lingered unsigned into the early months of 2024 and/or signed for deals well below projections. It seems fair to expect that similar narratives could emerge in the coming winter.

Per González, a company source says that Diamond is still hoping to sign new deals with the 11 clubs being cut out today. However, that would presumably involve reduce fee payments, such as those received by the Guardians, Twins and Rangers this year. As mentioned up top, the Marlins and Angels seem to expect to continue their relationship with Diamond/Bally in 2025, though negotiating new deals may take some time.

In the long-term picture, MLB might be happy to be further cutting ties with Diamond. They have continually expressed skepticism about the company’s plans to stay afloat. Diamond has tried various methods of refinancing, including signing a streaming deal with Amazon, but the league hasn’t seemed convinced that any of the company’s plans would lead to long-term stability.

As mentioned, the league has already started selling some games to fans in direct-to-customer fashion. Commissioner Rob Manfred has aspirations of marketing a digital streaming package consisting of several MLB teams, which fans could watch without blackout restrictions. MLB.TV already exists and allows fans to watch most games, but the RSN deals lead to certain teams being blacked out in the areas covered by those deals.

Having less commitment with Diamond going forward will increase the viability of that streaming plan over the years to come. However, as mentioned, less TV revenue figures to have a sizeable impact on the short-term economics of the game. This will lead to ripple effects throughout the upcoming offseason and will likely be worrisome for certain players hitting the open market in the coming weeks. New deals could be negotiated between now and the 2025 season, which could put some money back on the table, though likely less than in previous years.

There is also the matter of the fan experience, as there were times in 2024 where the Braves were not available on TV to some customers during a dispute between Bally’s and Comcast. For fans of these 11 clubs today, they will have to keep an eye on the proceedings to determine if their favorite club will still be accessed in the ways they are accustomed to or if they will have to switch to some new broadcast model.

34 Players Elect Free Agency

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As the offseason nears, a number of players elect minor league free agency each week. These players are separate from six-year MLB free agents, who’ll reach the open market five days after the conclusion of the World Series. Eligible minor leaguers can begin electing free agency as soon as the regular season wraps up. These players were all outrighted off a team’s 40-man roster during the year and have the requisite service time and/or multiple career outrights necessary to reach free agency since they weren’t added back to teams’ rosters.

Electing free agency is the anticipated outcome for these players. There’ll surely be more to test the market in the coming weeks. We’ll offer periodic updates at MLBTR. These transactions are all reflected on the MiLB.com log.

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

Designated Hitter

Pitchers

Brewers Owner Discusses Upcoming Offseason

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The Brewers still have business to attend to here in 2024, as they won the National League Central. They naturally still have aspirations of continuing to win through October and nabbing a World Series title. But the offseason is going to start in a few weeks regardless of what happens in the playoffs and plans have to be made. Owner Mark Attanasio was asked about some of the questions facing the club with Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reporting on his responses. Most notably, Attanasio didn’t offer much insight on the club’s planned payroll for next year while downplaying the chances of the club re-signing shortstop Willy Adames.

On the payroll side of things, Attanasio didn’t really tip his hand. While the club’s strong performance this year has led to increased ticket revenue and strong TV ratings, the owner suggested that it may end up a wash with the club receiving less revenue sharing.

“We have a budget every year,” Attanasio said. “Revenue isn’t just ticket revenue; it (includes) beverage and sponsorships, all of which are strong. (There’s) also revenue sharing, which we’ve talked about a lot. The way that the revenue sharing model works, everybody puts their money in the pot and then it gets recalibrated. The more money you make on a comparative basis, the less revenue sharing you get.”

Attanasio also went on to highlight that the club will face some uncertainty in terms of their TV revenues. “We’ve got local media – some would say challenges, but I would say opportunities – with the challenges at Diamond (Sports Group) and Bally’s. If you look to the medium term and not just the short term, I look at that as opportunities because of the ability to control our digital rights, which are very valuable. And that may occasion a step back next year.” Per Hogg, Attanasio clarified that “a step back” meant less TV revenue coming in, not necessarily less money going out to the player payroll.

Diamond has been in a limbo state for quite some time now. Reports emerged in the 2022-23 offseason that the company, which owns Bally Sports networks, was in a bad financial position. The company filed for bankruptcy just before the 2023 season kicked off but has since tried to stay afloat. It’s not yet clear if their efforts to continue operating will ultimately be successful.

Though the company has continued to put together broadcasts for some clubs, their total portfolio has shifted. They dropped their contracts with the Padres and Diamondbacks in 2023. It threatened to do the same with the Guardians, Twins and Rangers for 2024 but ultimately renegotiated lower fees with those clubs. The Brewers have been fairly untouched so far but Hogg’s piece notes that their deal with Diamond expires after the 2024 season, making their 2025 TV revenue a big unknown at this point.

There are many moving parts between the gate revenue, uncertainty with the broadcast situation and the revenue sharing. Since the club continues to perform well on the field but is facing those questions about the business side of things, perhaps it’s fair to expect that the payroll won’t be wildly shifting in either direction.

The club’s payroll has generally fallen in the middle of the league, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Attanasio purchased the club in 2005 and the club has never been higher than 13th in terms of player spending since then. Since the pandemic, the Brewers have been in the range of 19th to 22nd among the 30 clubs in the majors. This year, they were 22nd with an Opening Day budget of $104MM.

Despite those financial limitations, there has been a lot of on-field success. This is the sixth time in the past seven years that Milwaukee has cracked the postseason, missing by just a single game in 2022.

Per RosterResource, the club only has $39MM committed to next year’s roster, though that number doesn’t really reflect the offseason picture. Rhys Hoskins has an $18MM player option that he will surely trigger on the heels of a down year. There’s a $4MM buyout, so he’ll add $14MM to the budget by sticking around for next year. The club will surely pick up club options on Freddy Peralta, Devin Williams and Colin Rea, adding another $21.25MM.

That would get the total number up to the $75MM range, before accounting for arbitration raises. Aaron Civale is making $4.9MM this year and should get a bump of a few million. Hoby Milner and Joel Payamps each made around $2MM this year and will get bumps. William Contreras will qualify for the first time and should be able to get a notable raise with his strong career to date. Players like Jake Bauers, Bryse Wilson, Eric Haase, Trevor Megill and Nick Mears are also in line for arb raises.

Depending on which of those players are tendered contracts and where the salaries ultimately end up, the Brewers could wind up fairly close to this year’s $104MM payroll before even making any offseason moves. Some trades could always free up some cash, but the club might not have a lot of powder dry to bring back Adames, which Attanasio was frank about.

“He’s going to get an enormous free-agent contract and I’m very happy for him and his family, and we’ll give it our best shot,” Attanasio said. “But there’s a lot deeper pockets out there. That’s just the reality.”

Adames had a bit of a down year in 2023 but has had a strong bounce back this year. He hit 32 home runs and drew walks in 10.8% of his plate appearances. His .251/.331/.462 line translated to a 119 wRC+, indicating he was 19% above league average at the plate overall. He also stole 21 bases in 25 tries. His defensive reviews weren’t as strong as previous years, with -16 Defensive Runs Saved and 0 Outs Above Average, though his career tallies are still positive in both of those metrics. Even with the diminished grades for his glovework, FanGraphs still considered him to be worth 4.8 wins above replacement on the year.

As a solidly above average shortstop going into his age-29 season, his free agency has a lot of comparables to Dansby Swanson, Javier Báez and Trevor Story. All three of them were in similar positions as they hit the open market. Báez and Story each got $140MM over six years while Swanson got $177MM over seven.

The Brewers have only once given out a contract anywhere near that range, with the extension for Christian Yelich getting to $188.5MM. Apart from that, the largest contract in franchise history was $105MM for Ryan Braun back in 2011, as shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker.

Given the club’s track record and current budgetary question marks, and Attanasio’s straightforward comments, the odds of Adames returning to Milwaukee seem to be quite low. Assuming that comes to pass, they will recoup draft pick compensation by making him a qualifying offer, which he will reject.

The club has a couple of in-house options to cover for Adames, as both Brice Turang and Joey Ortiz came up as shortstops in the minors. They have posted strong defensive grades primarily at second and third base this year respectively and either could be a candidate to move back to short going forward. Neither has qualified for arbitration yet, so it would be a low-cost solution to Adames’ departure if the club goes that route. They would then have to address either second or third base but could find internal solutions for that issue as well. The club has toyed with Sal Frelick being moved to third as a solution to its crowded outfield picture, though injuries have allowed him to stay in the outfield for now. Prospect Tyler Black is also a possibility at the hot corner going forward.

There will be many questions to be answered in the weeks and months to come. For now, the club will be focused on winning the games in front of them, which could also impact the upcoming winter. A lengthy playoff run would lead to more gate and TV revenue, which could perhaps impact how the front office and ownership answer some of these questions.

Brewers, Vinny Nittoli Agree To Minor League Deal For 2025

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The Brewers have agreed to terms with reliever Vinny Nittoli on a minor league contract for next season, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (X link). He’ll get an invitation to big league Spring Training.

Nittoli, 34 in November, had an eventful 2024 campaign. While he only made nine appearances at the major league level, he was a part of four organizations. He began the season with the A’s on a minor league deal. They selected his contract and he pitched seven times, allowing two runs through eight innings. Nittoli cleared waivers after being designated for assignment and successively signed with the Cubs and Orioles. He didn’t pitch in the majors for Chicago and made two appearances with Baltimore, tossing four scoreless frames. He finished his season on a minor league deal with the Mets. He opted out of his deal with New York at the end of August and has been a free agent for a month.

The Xavier product has pitched in the majors in four consecutive seasons. This year’s 12 innings are a personal high. Nittoli has tossed 18 2/3 frames overall, allowing five runs. He has a 4.80 earned run average over parts of five years in Triple-A. Nittoli fared better at that level this season, working to a 3.60 ERA while punching out more than a third of his opponents across 30 innings.

Milwaukee has shown a knack for getting good work out of low-cost bullpen pickups. Nittoli’s big swing-and-miss numbers made him an early target for the Brew Crew, who add to next spring’s bullpen competition even as they prepare for their upcoming Wild Card series against New York.

Sal Frelick Diagnosed With Bone Bruise In Hip

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4:38pm: Frelick’s MRI revealed a bone bruise, according to MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy. Per McCalvy, the Brewers are “optimistic” that Frelick avoided structural damage and will not make a roster move yet in case he recovers more quickly than expected. With that being said, it seems as though the Brewers currently expect the outfielder to miss at least the beginning of the playoffs.

10:14am: Brewers outfielder Sal Frelick will undergo an MRI today after he left Friday’s game with a left hip injury.  While chasing a foul ball in the third inning of Milwaukee’s 8-4 win over the Mets, Frelick slammed into the wall down the right field line, specifically landing within a cutout area of the otherwise padded wall.  Frelick was in a lot of discomfort as he gingerly left the field.

X-rays on Frelick’s hip “were inconclusive,” Brewers manager Pat Murphy told reporters (including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) following the game.  An MRI has been scheduled for this morning to determine the extent of Frelick’s injury, or what his status could be as the Brewers prepare for the start of the NL wild card series on Tuesday.

The 15th overall pick of the 2021 draft, Frelick made his MLB debut last season and moved into an everyday role this year, primarily as the Brewers’ regular right fielder.  Frelick has also logged 184 innings in left field and 168 innings in center, but his 776 innings in right field have cemented him as one of the better defensive outfielders in all of baseball.  No matter the metric, Frelick’s work in right field has been lauded by Defensive Runs Saved (+16), UZR/150 (16.6) and Outs Above Average (+6).

This excellent glovework has kept Frelick in the lineup despite a lack of production at the plate.  While Frelick makes a lot of contact, he is near the bottom of the league in hard contact and barrel rate, and he has only an 86 wRC+ from a slash line of .259/.320/.335 over 524 plate appearances.  Stealing 18 bases in 21 attempts has boosted Frelick’s offensive value to some extent, and naturally it isn’t unusual for a second-year player to struggle in his first extended look at big league pitching.

Milwaukee claimed the NL Central title even without one major force in their outfield, as Christian Yelich underwent season-ending back surgery in August.  Star rookie Jackson Chourio has settled into a groove as the everyday left fielder, so if Frelick is unavailable for the NLWCS, the likeliest scenario would see Chourio in left field, Blake Perkins in center, and Garrett Mitchell in right.  Jake Bauers and utilitymen Andruw Monasterio and Isaac Collins provide some further depth, plus the likes of Brewer Hicklen or Vinny Capra could be called up from the minors.

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