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Twins Remain Engaged With Josh Donaldson

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With Anthony Rendon off the market, teams looking for third base upgrades could do a lot worse than Josh Donaldson, the top remaining free agent at the position. The Twins are one of the teams that remains linked to Donaldson, according to Darren Wolfson of SKOR North, though they are perhaps positioned on the periphery of the race to land Donaldson.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal cites the Nationals—who suddenly find themselves lacking at the hot corner with Rendon’s departure—and the Braves as the two frontrunners for the 34-year-old slugger, and as Wolfson notes, Minnesota may struggle to compete with the familiarity the Braves offer or the raw dollar amount the Nats could bring to the table.

Donaldson is said to be seeking a four-year deal, and a team’s willingness to go to that length could very well be the deciding factor for his camp. The Rangers, frequently mentioned as a suitor for Donaldson, have reportedly backed off their pursuit for that very reason, and the first team to concede on that front may wind up with Donaldson. We’ll see just how far Minnesota is willing to go for Donaldson, who would be 37 years old in the fourth year of a hypothetical contract. For what it’s worth, MLBTR predicted in early November that Donaldson would land a three-year deal in his second straight crack at free agency.

The Twins have hardly been ones to make a splash with their spending in recent years, but last year made a savvy signing in the form of Nelson Cruz, who catalyzed an offense that rates among the best in recent memory. And with a fair amount of payroll flexibility this winter, they’ve long been rumored to be players for names like Donaldson or pitchers Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu. And one could argue that the team’s resources would be better spent on a rotation upgrade, particularly in light of the recent departures of Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez in free agency.

While the market for third basemen appears to be thinning, there’s no shortage of contending teams that could stand to upgrade at the position. That could mean a more competitive market for the likes of Donaldson and trade candidates Kris Bryant and Kyle Seager. Teams who refuse to go to a fourth year for Donaldson and who can’t meet the Cubs’ demands for Bryant could pivot to the likes of Seager or Maikel Franco as cheaper, yet still serviceable, options. For the Twins, keep an eye on those names should Donaldson prove too rich for their blood, though there’s still an outside chance they win the bidding war.

Twins, Marlins Have Discussed Deal

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  • At this week’s Winter Meetings, Miami and Minnesota discussed a trade that would see the Marlins send right-hander Elieser Hernandez to the Twins for outfielder Jake Cave, according to Craig Mish of FNTSY Sports Radio. While there’s no indication a deal is on the way, the Twins are at least “open” to trading Cave and would like a pitcher in return, Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News tweets. Age (24 versus 27) is on Hernandez’s side, but Cave was the better producer in 2019. Cave slashed .258/.351/.455 in 228 plate appearances. Meanwhile, Hernandez put up a 5.03 ERA/5.58 FIP despite logging 9.29 K/9 against 2.84 BB/9 across 82 1/3 innings. Neither player is on track to reach arbitration until after 2021.

Twins To Sign Caleb Thielbar

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The Twins have agreed to bring hurler Caleb Thielbar back to the organization on a minors deal, Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN tweets. Further details aren’t known.

All of Thielbar’s MLB experience came in Minnesota between 2013 and 2015. He carried a 2.74 ERA in 98 2/3 innings, in fact. He only carried a 79:30 K/BB ratio but had success at tamping down the long ball and batting average on balls in play.

Since Thielbar’s chances fizzled out with the Twins and he never got another shot elsewhere, it seems there’s quite a lot of doubt as to whether he can really succeed over the long haul in the majors. He ended up spending two years on the indy ball circuit and hasn’t seen the bigs since. But he has been awfully stingy in the upper minors in the past two seasons. Last year, he ran up a 3.22 ERA with an eyebrow-raising 94:16 K/BB ratio over 78 1/3 innings in 51 appearances in the hitter-friendly International League.

Poll: Josh Donaldson’s Next Contract

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With Anthony Rendon on his way to the Halos and Mike Moustakas now entrenched in Cincinnati, teams seeking a significant third-base upgrade in free agency are likely focused in on Josh Donaldson. The 2015 AL MVP was the clear No. 2 option heading into the winter, behind Rendon, and the manner in which things have played out has gone quite nicely for him and his representatives at the MVP Sports Group. Not only has the market been more aggressive for top-end free agents that at any point in the past two offseasons, but Moustakas signed with a club that plans to use him at second base and had no need for a third baseman. That’s notable for Donaldson (as it was for Rendon), because it took a top fallback option off the third base market without eliminating a potential suitor for Donaldson himself.

Josh Donaldson | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

To this point, Donaldson has been most heavily linked to the Dodgers, Rangers, Nationals, Twins and Braves — although multiple reports out of Texas on Thursday suggested that the Rangers aren’t likely to be the highest bidder. Even if Texas is out of the running, that still leaves at least four viable landing spots for Donaldson. The Dodgers had interest in Rendon and could either move Justin Turner across the diamond or to another team entirely. Washington now has a Rendon-sized hole to fill at the hot corner, and Donaldson is one of the few third basemen in the game who can come close to matching that value on a per-game basis. The Twins could move Miguel Sano to first base and add Donaldson to an already potent lineup while simultaneously improving their infield defense. And the Braves, of course, were the beneficiaries of Donaldson’s .259/.379/.521 rebound campaign in 2019, when he swatted 37 home runs and tallied 4.9 fWAR and 6.1 bWAR.

It’s certainly possible, too, that other clubs are looming on the periphery. The Phillies, for instance, could theoretically push Scott Kingery to center field and deploy Donaldson at third base even after signing Didi Gregorius. The Brewers have funds available and an opening at third base, although beating the rest of the market on a free-agent deal of this nature has rarely been the team’s M.O. under president of baseball operations David Stearns (Lorenzo Cain being the notable exception). If the Cardinals can find a taker for Matt Carpenter, might they jump into the fray? They’ve been connected to Donaldson in each of the past few offseasons.

Suffice it to say, even with the Angels no longer a possible destination for Donaldson, there are plenty of plausible landing spots for a player who can reasonably be expected to deliver four to five wins above replacement in at least the first couple seasons of a new multi-year deal. The other question with regard to his market is just how high the bidding will go. Donaldson is expected to command at least a three-year contract and, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, already has one such offer in hand.

Whether a club will push to four guaranteed years could be the ultimate deciding factor. The Athletic’s Jim Bowden tweeted yesterday that “multiple” teams were willing to do so, although there’s been no indication that a team would be willing to go to four years and maintain the roughly $24-25MM annual commitment that Donaldson is expected to receive on a three-year arrangement. Being willing to go to $80-90MM on a four-year term isn’t the same as being willing to go to $100MM+ over the next four seasons.

Let’s open up the floor on each of those three aspects of his next contract…

Where will Donaldson sign? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

How long will the contract be? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

What will the total guarantee be? (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users)

Twins Still Interested In Josh Donaldson

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Twins Looking At Top Free Agent Relievers

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Even as they continue to press for rotation improvements, the Twins are exploring options at the top of the market for relief pitching. It seems the team is casting an exceptionally wide net, per reports from Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN (via Twitter) and Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News (Twitter link).

To this point, the Twins have already been rumored to be pursuing a reunion with sturdy veteran Sergio Romo — albeit perhaps not quite as enthusiastically as some other teams — while also joining a crowded group with interest in bounceback target Blake Treinen. Other candidates of each ilk have now been identified.

The Minnesota organization has looked into free agents Daniel Hudson, Steve Cishek, and Will Harris, according to Wolfson. That trio landed in our ranking of the top 50 free agents, with each prognosticated to secure a two-year pact with a guarantee of $10MM or more. They’re arguably a tier up from Romo on the market, though all of essentially the same subclass — veteran righty relievers with ample late-inning experience coming off of productive seasons.

Treinen is a much higher-variance hurler. When he was non-tendered, he joined a bounceback market led by Dellin Betances, who is hoping to return to form after an injury-ruined 2019 season. The Twins are at least giving internal consideration to pursuing Betances. It’s a bit of a dice roll since we don’t yet know whether he’ll be at peak physical form, but a single-season gamble on the high-octane hurler would seem to suit the Twins rather well.

Brandon Nimmo, Eddie Rosario Reportedly Being Discussed In Trade Talks

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While it was overshadowed entirely by a much bigger move, last night’s swap of Nomar Mazara from the Rangers to the White Sox also represented a notable bit of action in the outfield market. The landscape hasn’t changed much since the start of the offseason but could begin to come into focus now that the biggest starting pitching moves have been made.

It seems the Mets are still working things out in their outfield situation. Word is that they’re willing to consider parting with Brandon Nimmo, per SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (Twitter link). The New York org is reportedly still kicking around concepts with the Pirates regarding Starling Marte, one of the market’s top trade candidates. Some potential trade scenarios could involve the younger, cheaper, and more controllable Nimmo. It’s not specifically clear whether Nimmo is otherwise open for bidding, but it seems the New York org is doing everything it can to land a true center fielder — even if it means parting with the left-handed-hitting OBP machine.

Meanwhile, the Twins are discussing Eddie Rosario with several other clubs, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). The 28-year-old has been a mainstay in the Minnesota outfield but dipped a bit last year to a .276/.300/.500 batting line. He did launch 32 long balls and performed better in the on-base department in the prior two seasons. The Twins shouldn’t really need to move salary — Rosario is projected to earn $8.9MM with one more arb season to come — but may see an opportunity to pick up talent (especially in the pitching department) while reinvesting the payroll space and clearing the way for the near-term ascent of Alex Kirilloff.

The potential market for Rosario isn’t yet evident. The Marlins are among the teams with interest in Rosario, per Craig Mish of MLB Network Radio (via Twitter). But the Miami organization considers the Twins’ asking price “extremely high” at the moment. That was also the team’s stance with regard to Nomar Mazara, who ended up being dealt instead to the White Sox yesterday. The pursuit of Rosario and Mazara offers some insight into the thinking of the Miami organization. It seems obvious the organization is willing to take on a decent bit of salary and won’t limit itself to players with lengthy control rights. The club has a long-stated desire to add some corner pop and is also exploring the possibilities on the open market.

Latest On Madison Bumgarner

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DEC. 10: It’s looking increasingly probable that Bumgarner will either reach or approach his $100MM-plus goal, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. “Many teams” are in the race, per Heyman, who tweets that the Twins “are thought to be” heavily in pursuit.

DEC. 9, 5:11pm: The Giants, Bumgarner’s lone team to date, are among his suitors and will meet with his representation this week, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. “We’re involved in those discussions,” Zaidi said. “We’re planning to meet with his representatives this week and they have other meetings scheduled, too. That’s what happens when a player is a free agent, they’re going to explore all their options. Guys are looking for different things, looking for maybe a particular geography, maybe a team in a specific part of their competitive cycle.” Interestingly, although they’re not known for their spending, the division-rival Diamondbacks are also in the mix, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. The Angels are also part of it, though whether they’re aggressive in pursuing Bumgarner could depend on if they land Gerrit Cole.

10:46am: Representatives of southpaw Madison Bumgarner have informed interested organizations that he’s looking to top nine figures over five years with his first free agent contract, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. Whether he’ll get there remains to be seen.

Zack Wheeler just blew past the $100M mark, but MLBTR predicted he’d substantially out-earn Bumgarner. While Bumgarner has unquestionably accomplished more in his career to date, the younger Wheeler seems on the upswing. We predicted Bumgarner would land at four years and $72MM, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see him approach or even reach the $100MM level if interest soars to five years.

The question facing MLB teams is whether they believe Bumgarner can sustain his excellent results despite less-than-exceptional peripheral numbers. He doesn’t throw as hard as he did in his heyday, but Bumgarner’s velocity has stabilized in the 91 to 92 mph range. He got swings and misses as often as ever in the just-completed campaign after experiencing a somewhat worrisome 2018 downturn. But Bumgarner hasn’t drawn quite as many strikeouts and hasn’t limited the long ball as successfully as he once did, leading ERA estimators to dim on his value.

Bumgarner stands as an interesting market bellwether. Teams won’t pay for his past performance; those days are over. But will they put a big dollar value on his still-significant anticipated future contributions? And will his history of stepping up in the postseason help his cause? Bumgarner is still just thirty years of age and got back to his 200-inning ways in 2019. And even the post-injury version of the lefty still hasn’t finished a season having allowed four earned runs per nine innings.

There are a variety of teams with interest, though to what level isn’t yet evident. The Twins, White Sox, and Reds have been linked clearly to Bumgarner, while the Reds, Cardinals, and Yankees have also been cited as possibilities. It’ll cost the winning bidder draft compensation to add Bumgarner, which could temper the willingness to add yet more dollars and/or years to an offer.

Twins Sign Alex Avila

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DEC. 10: The Avila deal and the re-signing of Michael Pineda are now official, the Twins announced. They now have 37 players on their 40-man roster.

DEC. 6: The Twins have agreed to a one-year contract with free-agent catcher Alex Avila, ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets. The Excel Sports client will take home a $4.25MM guarantee on the new deal, per the report.

Alex Avila | Rob Schumacher/The Republic via USA TODAY NETWORK

Avila, 33 in January, is no stranger to the AL Central, having spent parts of eight seasons with the Tigers plus another year with the White Sox. He’ll give the Twins a left-handed-hitting complement to 2019 breakout star Mitch Garver and, ostensibly, replace Jason Castro, who seems likely to land a starting gig elsewhere in free agency.

The veteran Avila is somewhat of a divisive player, as some view his perennially low batting average and lofty strikeout totals as too detrimental to provide consistent value. Others will point to his sky-high walk rates and above-average power in suggesting that more traditional metrics undersell his value at the plate. Indeed, Avila had one of the game’s more bizarre stat lines in 2019 when he slashed .207/.353/.421 with a 17.9 percent walk rate (third among hitters with 200+ plate appearances) and a 33.2 percent strikeout rate (12th among that same subset of hitters).

Garver, 28, still stands out as the obvious starter in Minnesota after exploding with a .273/.365/.630 batting line and 31 home runs in 2019. Even if next year’s ball is corrected to be less conducive to home runs, the Twins assuredly want to plug Garver into the lineup as often as possible after a such a stout performance. He’ll see time against lefties and righties alike, but Avila will be a more than capable stand-in when Garver needs a breather and a righty is on the hill. For his career, Avila is a .241/.358/.417 hitter (15.3 BB%, 28.7 K%) when holding the platoon advantage, although his .212/.307/.311 career line against lefties is all one needs to see to steer him away from opposing southpaws. If Garver needs a day off when a left-hander is on the mound, the Twins could perhaps look to plus super-utility man Willians Astudillo and his right-handed bat into the lineup at catcher. Astudillo himself could’ve been deployed as a backup catcher in 2020, but in Avila, the Twins have found a drastically better source of on-base percentage and a better defensive option that allows Astudillo to continue on in a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none role.

Avila has long been adept at controlling the running game (career 30 percent caught-stealing rate), but he was particularly impressive in 2019 with Arizona. Although he was only a part-time catcher there as well, Avila nabbed 11 of the 21 men who attempted to run on him (52 percent), and he was 9-for-30 (30 percent) a year prior. Avila’s framing rated poorly in 2017, but the D-backs’ efforts to improve him in that regard were successful, as he was above-average in both his seasons with Arizona, per both FanGraphs and Statcast. Baseball Prospectus, meanwhile, rated him as one of the game’s best at blocking pitches in the dirt in 2019.

Minnesota still has substantial work to do this offseason — namely augmenting a rotation that currently looks too similar to its 2019 iteration — but adding Avila to the fold crosses a more minor need off the to-do list at a reasonable price point. The one-year term of the deal continues with the Derek Falvey/Thad Levine-led front office’s penchant for short-term investments as well, thus maintaining future payroll flexibility. If the Twins hope to truly bolster the rotation, they’ll probably need to eschew that preference, but for smaller-scale moves like this it’s sensible to minimize contractual length.

Twins Still Searching For Major Rotation Addition

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We’re closing in on the one-year anniversary of these memorable words from Twins GM Thad Levine: “The best moves are made not when you’re trying to open the window to contend, but when the window is wide open. We’re very eagerly waiting for this window to be opened, and when it is, we plan on striking.”

Last season, the Minnesota roster shattered the pane with 101 wins. A roster that front office characterized as possessing an “unusual abundance of variance and volatility” came up aces. Now, Levine and chief baseball officer Derek Falvey have no real choice but to believe in the talent on hand and take on the mentality of a clear contender. There are several areas to consider for improvement, but as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained at the outset of the offseason, the rotation was the prime area of focus.

So, how to understand the club’s early maneuvering? Falvey and Levine opened the offseason by bringing back two preexisting players at much higher prices than they had played for in the prior two seasons. The added cost is understandable in each instance, as both pitchers boosted their value with quality seasons. Jake Odorizzi doesn’t seem likely to vastly outperform the $17.8MM he’s now promised after accepting the qualifying offer — he’ll be hard-pressed to replicate his excellent results from 2019 — but it’s an appealing contract for the team since it comes without any future obligations. And just-re-inked hurler Michael Pineda seemed like a plausible candidate to be pursued at a higher rate of pay, so his two-year, $20MM contract seems at worst to be a market-value move that comes with real upside.

The front office is pleased with these re-acquisitions, as it should be, but the rotation remains incomplete. “I do think we’ve stabilized the team and that was essential,” Levine explains to Dan Hayes of The Athletic (subscription link). “Now, we still have the ability to impact it significantly. But, first steps first, was to stabilize.”

Odorizzi and Pineda helped the Twins to a magical 2019 regular season and can undoubtedly be a big part of driving another winner. Doubling down on last year’s unit is mostly a fine strategy. But that roster variability that the Twins’ upper management cited this time last year? It cuts both ways. Mitch Garver might turn into a pumpkin. Nelson Cruz could show his age. Odorizzi and Pineda are hardly assured of repeating their ’19 efforts. Injuries and performance backslides are always possible. With the Indians facing uncertainty, the White Sox trying to figure out precisely how to vault into contention, and the remainder of the AL Central firmly in the rebuilding camp, now isn’t the time for the Twins to play it safe.

Retaining Odorizzi and Pineda was the prelude — but to what? Levine says that the team is “aspirational of getting the best players we can get.” He also suggested patience in making that happen. “What we’ve seen the last couple of years is that this process has skewed later and later each year,” says Levine of free agency. “Maybe we’re seeing it rebound a little bit this offseason and we’re going to be attentive to that. But we’re having a lot of meetings now to put ourselves in the best position to proceed.”

Just how it’ll all shake out remains to be seen. The Twins aren’t in the market for Gerrit Cole but do have eyes on the next tier of available arms. Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu have long been known to be targets. Fellow southpaw starter Dallas Keuchel is also of interest, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).

Hayes also emphasizes the possibility of trades, even noting that the front office hasn’t ruled out dealing from among its very best prospects. Trouble is, the trade market isn’t exactly laden with obviously available, high-end hurlers. Robbie Ray is probably the best rental arm that could be had; otherwise, Chris Archer may be the next-best single-season target that seems to be available. Matthew Boyd and Caleb Smith are among the controllable pitchers that ought to be open for bids. It is difficult to imagine deals coming together with the Rockies (Jon Gray, German Marquez), Mets (Noah Syndergaard), or Red Sox (Eduardo Rodriguez, David Price), but the Twins have surely inquired. Unfortunately, some of the most intriguing wild-card targets (Corey Kluber, Mike Clevinger) play for the division-rival Indians.

The Twins aren’t the only organization playing this high-stakes game at the moment. Intense and widespread demand explains why the Phillies spent big to land Zack Wheeler — beating the Twins and others to do so — while the Nationals went to such heights to retain Stephen Strasburg. If and when the Twins finally put the wraps on a major transaction to haul in a top-shelf starter, it’ll likely sting the wallet or the farm. But with that metaphorical window now wide open, it’s incumbent upon the organization to dedicate real resources to taking advantage.

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