Latest On Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler
10:35pm: It isn’t definite the Mets will trade Syndergaard, per reports from Anthony DiComo of MLB.com and Anthony Rieber of Newsday, though Rieber adds the club’s “working hard” to move him. The Astros are “pessimistic” about their chances of acquiring Syndergaard, DiComo writes. Meanwhile, it “doesn’t sound like” the Mets and Twins have made headway toward a deal, Martino tweets.
3:58pm: Mets righty Noah Syndergaard has emerged as the perhaps the most talked-about name on the trade market, and his name once again figures to dominate headlines — much as it did in the offseason. Meanwhile, scouts will be watching closely as fellow starter Zack Wheeler takes the hill tonight for his lone pre-deadline showcase start. Here’s the latest on both hurlers …
Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Mets are seeking an MLB-ready starter who can step right into the rotation in place of Syndergaard, then some additional high-end prospects after that. The pitcher in question needn’t technically be the headliner in the deal, but presumably the Mets are eyeing a controllable (pre-arbitration) starter as well as premier minor leaguers beyond that point.
That aligns with recent reports from SNY’s Andy Martino (Twitter links), who suggests that the Mets view the Padres, Braves, Dodgers, Rays and Yankees as the best on-paper fits in a deal. The Padres and Braves, in particular, are rich with MLB-ready pitchers in the upper minors, and Sherman lists that pair of organizations as the two that the Mets feel are best-positioned to work out a deal.
Notably, Sherman calls the Astros the “most aggressive” pursuer of Syndergaard, but Houston has seen its top pitching prospects take a step back in 2019. Forrest Whitley (shoulder fatigue) has barely pitched in 2019. Corbin Martin underwent Tommy John surgery. Martino suggests that neither the Astros nor Twins are viewed as prime trade partners — likely because other interested parties have better MLB-ready arms to offer. It was reported this morning that the Twins and Mets have discussed Syndergaard, with the Mets showing particular interest in shortstop Royce Lewis and outfielder Alex Kirilloff.
Looking at the teams the Mets apparently believe to be fits, it’s a bit of an eyebrow-raiser to see the Yankees and Braves listed. The Yankees and Mets haven’t lined up on a trade in more than a decade, and the frequent reports out of New York portraying the contempt that Mets owner Fred Wilpon has toward the Yankees make a deal of this nature seem decidedly unlikely. Meanwhile, trading Syndergaard to a division rival would be difficult for Mets fans to stomach, particularly given that he’s controlled through the 2021 season.
Whether the Houston organization can put together a compelling package for Syndergaard, they’ll have other things to talk about with the Mets front office. The ‘Stros are “one of many” teams that have interest in Wheeler, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Martino tweets that the Yankees also remain interested in Wheeler and will be watching intently this evening.
Mitch Garver’s Quietly Great Season
The Twins entered play Friday with the majors’ most home runs, second-best wRC+ and third-most runs, all of which helps explain their 62-40 record and two-game lead in the American League Central. The likes of Nelson Cruz (who swatted three homers Thursday), Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler are among Twins position players who get the lion’s share of attention, but there’s a case that a little-known catcher has been their premier offensive contributor on a per-plate appearance basis this season. That backstop didn’t join the Twins as a high draft pick, nor was he an elite prospect coming through their system.
The Twins selected Mitch Garver out of the University of New Mexico in the ninth round of the 2013 draft. At his best, Garver rose to a 17th-place rating in Minnesota’s farm, according to Baseball America, which placed him there after the 2016 season. Back then, BA described Garver as a “steady offensive player” with questionable (albeit improving) defense.
Garver debuted in the majors in 2017, though he only collected 52 plate appearances, before turning into a regular option last year. He was a fine offensive performer then, slashing .268/.335/.414 (102 wRC+) with seven home runs in 335 trips to the plate, but Garver was simultaneously among the worst defensive backstops in baseball. One year later, though, Garver has quietly evolved into one of the sport’s top all-around catchers.
Sharing time with fellow 2019 standout Jason Castro, the 28-year-old Garver has batted a phenomenal .291/.378/.646 with a prodigious 19 homers in just 217 PA. Among hitters who have amassed 200 or more PA this season, Garver ranks fourth in wRC+ (162). Who’s ahead of him? The MVP-caliber group of Mike Trout, Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger. Meanwhile, Garver has totaled 2.6 fWAR, which ranks fourth at his position behind Yasmani Grandal, J.T. Realmuto and Christian Vazquez.
There are ways to somewhat pooh-pooh Garver’s superlative production at the dish. He’s not going to maintain a .354 ISO, for instance, and despite owning one of the majors’ highest fly ball rates (47.8 percent), Garver’s 29.2 percent HR-to-FB rate isn’t going to last. Moreover, Statcast indicates his .422 weighted on-base average is bound to fall. Other than that, however, negatives are few and far between when it comes to Garver’s offensive game.
The righty-swinging Garver has crushed same- and left-handed pitchers alike. His 10.6 percent walk rate is above average, and even though he has been a tremendous power hitter in 2019, Garver hasn’t struck out at an untenable rate. His 24.9 percent strikeout rate is below average, though it’s not awful, and his chase, swing, in-zone contact and swinging-strike percentages are all either a bit better than most players’ or vastly superior. Likewise, Garver’s exit velocity, hard-hit rate, expected slugging percentage and expected wOBA are all near the top of the league, per Statcast, which credits him with a .365 xwOBA. Garver’s just below Alex Bregman in that category. Not bad, especially for a catcher. Garver’s excellence has largely stemmed from an ability to pulverize fastballs – FanGraphs ranks him among the game’s most effective hitters versus heaters, while Statcast indicates he has posted a .533 wOBA/.446 xwOBA against them.
Of course, one of the key elements to catching is playing defense, which had been a sore spot for Garver in the past. That hasn’t been the case this year. Not only has Garver thrown out a solid 6 of 18 would-be base stealers, but he has enjoyed a turnaround in the all-important pitch-framing department. Just 15 catchers have outdone Garver in that regard, says StatCorner.
When it comes to underrated players who have significantly impacted the standings thus far, Garver no doubt ranks near the apex of the league. And with Castro set to hit free agency after the season, perhaps Garver is close to assuming the reins as the Twins’ full-time catcher. With four years left of control remaining after 2019, Garver will have plenty more time to continue putting his name on the map in Minnesota. So far, he’s doing a pretty good job.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Twins, Mets Have Discussed Noah Syndergaard
The Twins and Mets have had discussions surrounding Noah Syndergaard since the Mets have made the right-hander available, reports La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. Minnesota has been linked to virtually every arm on the trade market — starter and reliever alike — so their inclusion in the Syndergaard bidding hardly comes as a shock. Nor is it surprising that Neal indicates that the Mets have focused in on top prospects Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff as potential headliners in a deal.
Lewis, 20, was the No. 1 overall draft pick in 2017, and the shortstop entered the season ranked as a consensus top 10 prospect in all of baseball. He’s scuffled a bit in his first exposure to Class-A Advanced, hitting .243/.295/.384 through 410 plate appearances. Lewis, though, is still rather young for the Florida State League and is still generally regarded as a premier prospect, even if there’s a bit more of a divide on his status at the moment. Baseball America dipped Lewis to No. 21 on its latest update of the game’s top 100 minor leaguers, while Lewis resides at No. 2 over on Fangraphs’ latest update.
Kirilloff, 21, also entered the season regarded as one of the game’s 20 best prospects. He hasn’t replicated last season’s dominant numbers between Class-A and Class-A Advanced, but the outfielder has turned in a .284/.351/.403 slash in 261 plate appearances against older, more experienced competition with Double-A Pensacola.
The Twins have reportedly been loath to part with either Lewis or Kirilloff — the same has been true of top pitching prospect Brusdar Graterol — although Syndergaard brings a different level of appeal to the table than most other arms known to be available. He’s controlled through the 2021 season (a year longer than Marcus Stroman or Mike Minor), has multiple dominant seasons on his resume (unlike Matthew Boyd), is still in arbitration as opposed to on a guaranteed contract (unlike Zack Greinke) and, despite a lackluster ERA on the season, offers some of the best raw stuff of any pitcher in baseball.
Syndergaard still averages 97.7 mph on his heater with a slider he can throw in the low 90s, and every club in baseball surely has its own ideas about how to restore his bottom-line results to their previous levels, which more closely aligned with his premium arsenal. The Twins, in particular, have added incentive to pursue controllable starters; each of Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and Michael Pineda are free agents this winter.
Twins Interested In Daniel Hudson
The Twins have already been connected to Toronto closer and prime trade chip Ken Giles, but they’re also interested in one of the Blue Jays’ less exciting relievers. Right-hander Daniel Hudson is on the Twins’ radar, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. They’re one of multiple teams eyeing the hard-throwing Hudson.
Unlike Giles, who’s under control through 2020, Hudson would be a rental for an acquiring team. He joined the Blue Jays for a guaranteed $1.5MM right before the season began. The well-traveled 32-year-old has since pitched to an excellent 2.80 ERA in 45 innings, though his 4.31 FIP, 4.57 SIERA, 5.36 xFIP and 9.8 percent swinging-strike rate – his lowest since 2012 – don’t inspire close to as much confidence. Along with those numbers, Hudson has logged 8.8 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, a 40.7 percent groundball rate and a 12.3 percent infield fly rate. Hudson’s above-average ability to induce pop-ups has helped him limit home runs, as he has surrendered just one per nine innings.
Homers also haven’t been a major problem this year for Twins relievers, who have yielded 1.25 per nine (good for 12th in the league). However, despite the Twins’ AL Central-leading 61-40 record, their bullpen has been something of a sore spot this year. That’s evidenced in part by the fact that the club has moved on from four relievers – Mike Morin, Matt Magill, Adalberto Mejia and Blake Parker – since last week. That quartet combined for just over 100 innings out of Minnesota’s bullpen this season.
As for the relievers the Twins have on hand right now, only Taylor Rogers and Ryne Harper have truly thrived over a full season of work. Trevor May and Tyler Duffey have struck out upward of 10 batters per nine apiece, but the former has battled control issues and the latter has been susceptible to homers.
Twins Acquire Jeremy Bleich
The Twins have acquired left-hander Jeremy Bleich from the Red Sox in exchange for cash considerations, as tweeted by Nate Rowan, the director of communications for the Twins’ Triple-A affiliate in Rochester. Bleich will be assigned to Rochester.
Bleich signed a minors deal with Boston in April, and has posted an 0.71 ERA in 12 2/3 innings at low-A ball along with a 5.59 ERA over 19 1/3 frames for Triple-A Pawtucket. These represent the latest stops in an 11-year pro career for Bleich, who was originally selected 44th overall by the Yankees in the 2008 draft. Minnesota will be the seventh different organization Bleich has called home, and his long resume includes a cup of coffee in the majors, appearing in two games (and pitching a total of one-third of an inning) for the Athletics just last season.
The 32-year-old Bleich has a 3.87 ERA, 7.3 K/9, and 2.08 K/BB rate over 641 1/3 career innings in the minors. He has started 72 of his 271 career games, though the lefty has worked largely out of the bullpen for the last five years.
Twins Activate Byron Buxton From Injured List
The Twins announced that center fielder Byron Buxton has been activated from the seven-day concussion injured list. Buxton and Triple-A callup Sean Poppen are active for tonight’s game against the White Sox, with outfielder Jake Cave and southpaw Devin Smeltzer optioned to Triple-A in corresponding 25-man roster moves.
After making a diving catch on July 13, Buxton experienced some concussion symptoms that led the Twins to sideline the center fielder. It was the second brief IL stint of the year for Buxton, who also missed some time in June due to a right wrist contusion.
While Buxton has yet to live up to the enormous hype that followed his selection as the second overall pick in the 2012 draft, the 25-year-old has at the very least put his troubled 2018 season behind him with a very strong showing this year. Buxton has hit .249/.308/.490 with nine homers over 268 PA, putting him on-pace for his first above-average (104 wRC+) offensive performance in his young career. Beyond the promise shown by improvements in his hard-contact and walk rates, Buxton continues to be a huge plus away from the plate, as he has already become one of the game’s best defensive center fielders.
Yankees Acquire Brian Navarreto From Twins
The Yankees have acquired minor league catcher Brian Navarreto from the Twins in exchange for cash considerations, as first reported by Mariana Guzman (Twitter links). He’ll give the club some depth with Gary Sanchez on the injured list.
Obviously, this minor swap isn’t of the magnitude that most fans would hope with Major League Baseball’s trade deadline just around the corner, but adding some low-cost depth to help cover current injury troubles is a logical course of action for the Yankees. For the Twins, they have multiple minor league catchers ahead of Navarreto on the organizational depth chart.
Navarreto, 24, was Minnesota’s sixth-round pick back in 2012. He’s a quintessential glove-first backstop, as evidenced by a whopping 47 percent caught-stealing rate and consistently strong framing marks in his minor league career. He’s enjoyed a modest bump in power this season but has been a poor hitter overall — both in 2019 and throughout his minor league tenure. Navarreto is a lifetime .215/.265/.308 hitter in the minor leagues, including a lackluster .177/.229/.331 slash (five home runs, five doubles) in 140 plate appearances at the Double-A level this season.
Derek Falvey Further Discusses Twins’ Deadline Planning
Adding to his recent comments, Twins chief baseball officer Derek Falvey chatted with reporters yesterday about his organization’s upcoming deadline plans, as Dan Hayes of The Athletic was among those to cover (subscription link). While Falvey didn’t signal a particular inclination to part with top prospect assets, he also made clear that the team wasn’t taking anything off the table in advance.
“We always have to be factoring all of the variables in the equation,” said Falvey, “and I wouldn’t rule out any particular asset we have in our organization.”
Falvey’s previous comments seemingly hinted at a relatively modest slate of pursuits. He had indicated that any new acquisitions would be supplementary to the existing roster core. But the latest tea leaves leave more room to read in the possibility of relatively significant additions.
The Twins obviously believe that they have a serious opportunity to make noise down the stretch and into the postseason. Falvey indicates that he sees the club as one of the top outfits in the American League. And he adds that owner Jim Pohlad is willing to boost spending to give the Twins “what we need” to improve down the stretch.
Pohlad’s own prior comments indicated that he was more inclined to dedicate payroll than to part with young talent. Even if the Twins aren’t declaring any untouchables, they’ll also be sure to explore every avenue before parting with players they think could one day be core assets. That’s particularly true when it comes to trade targets that do not come with any future value.
“Everything’s about the cost of acquisition,” Falvey explains. “Would we consider rentals? Certainly. But I would say that we obviously are going to be thoughtful about how much future value you’re giving up for that type of asset. Some of the early focus might be more on longer-term, controlled players, but we’re certainly going to look at the rental options, too.”
It’s rather evident from the outside both that the Twins have a legitimate shot at a special season and that they’re in need of some improvements. After dropping two of three in a competitive series with the powerful Yankees, the Minnesota club owns a two-game advantage over a rising Indians club that has owned the division of late. More than anything, the Twins could stand to add arms in multiple places. In particular, improving the high-leverage relief unit could make a big difference down the stretch and into a hopeful postseason run.
Latest On Interest In Mets’ Pitchers
Most reports out of New York over the past few weeks have echoed a familiar trio of names when assessing their trade chips: Zack Wheeler, Todd Frazier and Jason Vargas. The three are free agents at season’s end — Vargas does have an $8MM club option ($2MM buyout) that looks increasingly intriguing — making them natural candidates to be shipped out by a 46-54 Mets team that is closer to the NL’s worst record than to the division lead.
The larger source of intrigue surrounds whether the Mets would move assets controlled beyond the current season. To that end, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports within his latest column that the Mets “have been open to dealing” embattled closer Edwin Diaz. General manager Brodie Van Wagenen isn’t in any type of rush to move his offseason headliner, however. Rather, he’s endeavored to receive a comparable package to the one he surrendered in order to get Diaz in the first place. MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo tweets a similar sentiment, noting that the ask on Diaz is “so sky-high that it’s basically a non-starter.” Though ESPN.com’s Buster Olney suggests on Twitter that the Dodgers are a nice match on paper, he doesn’t indicate whether the sides have had actual discussions — let alone whether the Los Angeles organization would meet the Mets’ asking price.
Finding a deal that compares to the one that brought Diaz to New York seems an impossible order. In addition to taking on a hefty chunk of the Robinson Cano contract, the Mets parted with a pair of young players — Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn — who are soaring through the Mariners’ system and up top prospect rankings. Diaz’s strikeout, walk, ground-ball and swinging-strike rates have all gone in the wrong direction. And while he’s tossed six shutout innings since his most recent meltdown — a four-run collapse against the Phillies — he’s still lugging a 4.81 ERA with as many blown saves (four) as he had all of last season.
Even teams that feel they have an answer for Diaz’s struggles wouldn’t be willing to pay a metaphorical dollar-for-dollar rate in negotiations with the Mets. As for taking a lesser deal, the optics of trading him for cents on the dollar while retaining Cano and the sizable portion of his salary they absorbed in that deal would be poor, to say the least. Diaz is controlled through 2022, so a strong finish and/or a 2020 rebound would do wonders for his value.
It seems more plausible that if the Mets were to receive a sizable offer on a controllable arm, it’d be Noah Syndergaard. Olney tweets that the Mets are “seriously listening” to rival clubs that have interest. While Syndergaard hasn’t really thrown in a way that buttresses his own trade value, he’s throwing hard and seems to be in good health. His 4.36 ERA, 8.9 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 would all be career-worsts if the season ended today, but his track record and upside are so impressive that there’ll be loads of interest.
Whether that listening stance has a real chance of turning into meaningful trade talks remains to be seen. Both Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter links) and Andy Martino of SNY cite the Yankees as the club with perhaps the keenest level of interest in Syndergaard. Both reports suggest that top pitching prospect Deivi Garcia could be a headliner in such a deal, and while GM Brian Cashman plainly stated a couple weeks back that he wouldn’t move Garcia for a rental, Heyman suggests that the Yankees would “surely” put Garcia in play if meant obtaining Syndergaard, who is controlled through 2021.
Of course, the Yankees and Mets simply haven’t dealt with one another on the trade market at any point in recent history, which makes negotiations all the more complicated. And Olney tweets that he doesn’t think the New York rivals will be able to make a deal on such a significant player. Martino writes that the two teams have nevertheless talked Syndergaard “many times” this month, swapping proposals and counterproposals with no real progress being made. A deal is characterized as unlikely, although he also lists the Astros, Padres, Brewers and, to a lesser extent, the Twins as teams trying to pry Syndergaard loose.
That high asking price may not be the case with regard to Wheeler, whose value partially hinges on how well he performs in Friday’s expected return from the injured list. The Mets’ hope seems to be that a strong outing will quiet some concerns about Wheeler’s recent shoulder flareup, but the injury undoubtedly quelled some interest in him. Despite the concerns, Yahoo’s Mike Mazzeo cites a Mets official as calling the chances of a Wheeler trade “pretty high.”
If the Mets don’t find any offers on Wheeler to be viable or, even worse, he experiences renewed shoulder discomfort and is forced back to the IL, the club could retain him and issue a qualifying offer at season’s end. Barring a worrying showing, though, it may be that the Mets will end up simply taking the best offer on a player whose tenure in New York has seen its share of peaks and valleys.
Twins Designate Blake Parker For Assignment
The Twins announced that they’ve designated right-hander Blake Parker for assignment. His spot on the roster will go to veteran righty Carlos Torres, who signed a minor league contract last month and will have his contract selected from Triple-A Rochester. Minnesota has also optioned right-hander Kohl Stewart to Rochester and recalled lefty Devin Smeltzer in his place.
Parker, 34, was non-tendered by the Angels last fall despite putting up a 2.90 ERA in his two seasons there. The Minnesota org scooped him up for a $1.8MM guarantee. There were a series of roster bonuses that kicked off beginning 130 days into the season, a point less than two weeks away. While the Twins won’t owe any of the extra contemplated cash, they’ll be on the hook for the remainder of the salary unless another club takes over the contract or partially offsets what is owed by eventually bringing Parker onto their roster at a league-minimum rate of pay.
Though Parker seemed a reasonable risk for that rate of pay, he was probably miscast from the outset as a part of the team’s closer mix. He did pick up ten saves before being elbowed out of the ninth for good. Befitting a club that is turning over relief arms at a rapid pace in advance of the trade deadline, Parker was still trusted to work the eighth of a tight game just days ago.
After picking up a hold on Saturday against the A’s, Parker owned a 3.25 ERA on the season. But he was shredded for four earned runs while recording just one out yesterday, in what was in all likelihood his final appearance for the Twins this year. That left Parker with a cumulative 4.21 ERA through 36 1/3 innings on the season. The peripherals never inspired much confidence. He’s carrying 8.4 K/9 against 4.0 BB/9 with seven long balls on the ledger. As it did last year, Statcast identified a worrying volume of hard contact. The batted-ball profile indicated that Parker has actually been somewhat fortunate (.333 wOBA vs. .360 xwOBA).
The 36-year-old Torres is back in the bigs once again after forgettable and brief stints in each of the past two seasons. He’s a ten-year MLB veteran but hasn’t had a full and effective campaign since 2016. Torres has been generating good outcomes this year at Triple-A, though, with a 2.79 ERA in 48 1/3 frames at the top affiliates of the Tigers, Padres, and Twins.