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Twins Appear Unlikely To Trade Max Kepler

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Max Kepler has been one of the game’s more frequently mentioned trade candidates over the past month or so. The signing of Joey Gallo added another left-handed bat to a Twins outfield that was already very deep in that regard. Kepler, as the oldest and most expensive of Minnesota’s in-house lefty outfielders, seemed the likeliest player to move if the front office wanted to deal from that surplus to address anywhere else on the roster.

While the German-born outfielder drew reported interest from the Marlins and Yankees this offseason, the Twins obviously haven’t found a deal they consider satisfactory. Dan Hayes of the Athletic wrote this morning Minnesota hasn’t found the level of interest in Kepler they’re seeking and now seem likely to keep him into the season. Assuming that’s the case for the entirety of Minnesota’s outfielders, they’ll carry a group of Kepler, Gallo, Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff, Nick Gordon and Matt Wallner as left-handed options, with center fielders Byron Buxton, Michael A. Taylor and Gilberto Celestino all hitting from the right side.

Manager Rocco Baldelli would be able to get some of those players into the mix at non-outfield positions, of course. The Twins don’t have a set designated hitter, leaving room to rotate a number of options as quasi-rest days. Gordon can play the infield (mostly at second base), while Gallo and Kirilloff each have plenty of first base experience.

Kirilloff is returning from a second straight season-ending wrist surgery. Buxton has a lengthy injury history and has only once reached 100 MLB games in a season, no doubt playing into Minnesota’s recent acquisition of Taylor. Celestino, Wallner, Kirilloff and Larnach each have options remaining and can be sent to the minors — which seems a stronger possibility for the first two than for either of Kirilloff or Larnach.

There’s enough flexibility that Minnesota doesn’t have to deal an outfielder simply to free up playing time. As Hayes points out, however, not making a trade could be seen as missing out on an opportunity to balance the roster in other areas. As things stand, the Twins seem likely to deploy Gallo, Buxton and Kepler as their primary outfield, with Kirilloff at first base and Gordon and/or Larnach manning DH.

Hayes writes that Gallo has expressed a willingness to move back to first base if the club desires, though a key portion of the 29-year-old’s overall value is derived from his Gold Glove-caliber corner outfield work. He hasn’t started an MLB game at first base since 2018, with teams preferring to take advantage of his athleticism and arm strength on the outfield grass.

If everyone’s healthy, Minnesota should have an elite defensive outfield. Buxton and Taylor are two of the sport’s best defenders. Kepler and Gallo are high-end corner outfielders who can cover center if needed. Kepler’s glovework had been one of the key selling points in his trade candidacy, as a lackluster center field market has left a few other clubs rolling the dice on inexperienced options at the position. The Red Sox signed Adam Duvall, who’s 34 and has started 68 career games in center, to man the position. Miami is moving Jazz Chisholm Jr. to center after acquiring Luis Arraez to play second base.

To the extent other teams are interested in Kepler as a possible center field fit, it doesn’t appear they’re willing to meet the Twins’ asking price. Minnesota will plug him back into right field and hope he can more closely approximate his .252/.336/.519 showing from 2019 than the roughly average .220/.314/.392 mark he’s managed over the past three seasons.

Kepler has strong plate discipline and contact skills but consistently runs one of the league’s worst averages on balls in play. A lack of line drives suggests that’s not entirely poor fortune, though he has also seen plenty of overshifts that’ll no longer be permissible given the forthcoming rule changes. Kepler is playing this season on an $8.5MM salary. He’s due at least a $1MM buyout on a $10MM club option for the 2024 campaign.

Another player who could factor into the outfield mix at some point is Royce Lewis. He won’t be available at the start of the season after tearing the ACL in his right knee last June. It was the second straight year he’d torn the ligament. The former first overall pick is expected to be ready at some point midseason. The re-signing of Carlos Correa means Lewis isn’t likely to get much shortstop run, barring a Correa injury.

Lewis recently informed reporters he started swinging again three weeks ago and has progressed to straight-line running (link via Megan Ryan of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune). While there’s no present path to everyday reps at one position for the 23-year-old, he noted president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine each stressed his value to the organization after they retained Correa. Lewis spoke about his excitement for the star shortstop’s return and expressed a willingness to play anywhere on the infield or outfield depending on the team’s needs once he’s healthy.

Falvey: Bullpen Upgrades “Not A Priority”

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The Twins have been active this offseason, re-signing Carlos Correa while bringing in new faces such as Pablo López, Joey Gallo, Christian Vázquez, Michael A. Taylor and Kyle Farmer. Things have been relatively quiet in terms of the bullpen, however, and it doesn’t seem as though that’s going to change in the near future. The club’s president of baseball operations Derek Falvey tells Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune that a significant bullpen addition it isn’t a pressing concern right now. “If we were to do anything at this point, it would likely be to add depth in the middle [innings],” Falvey said. “We’ll keep an open mind, but [relief pitching is] not a priority.”

Last year, the club’s relief corps was firmly in the middle of the pack. Their collective 3.84 ERA was tied for 15th among the 30 teams in the league, while their 3.85 FIP was 14th, their 3.79 xFIP 10th and their 3.50 SIERA ninth. That group also took a hit when deadline acquisition Michael Fulmer reached free agency, though he remains unsigned.

It seems Falvey and the other decision makers in Minnesota have a lot of faith in their internal options. Jorge López was acquired from the Orioles at the deadline last year but still has two remaining years of club control. “We did our bullpen shopping at the [trade] deadline last year by adding some depth, adding Jorge [López],” Falvey said. After many years of mediocre performance as a starter, López converted to a bullpen role full-time in 2022 to great results. In 44 appearances for the O’s, he posted a 1.68 ERA while getting grounders at a 60% clip, striking out 27.6% of batters faced and walking 8.7%. Unfortunately, he didn’t maintain that pace after the trade, with a 4.37 ERA, 53.7% grounder rate, 17.6% strikeout rate and 13.7% walk rate as a Twin.

López will be looking for a bounceback after that frustrating finish to his 2022 campaign, though the club also has other intriguing names in the mix that could step up. Jhoan Durán was primarily a starter in the minors but cracked the majors last year in a relief role and utterly dominated. He tossed 67 2/3 innings over 57 appearances with a 1.86 ERA, getting grounders at a 61% clip while striking out 33.5% of opponents and walking just 6% of them. “He adapted to a new role, at the highest level, faster than we could have hoped,” Falvey said.

As for others in the mix that they’re encouraged by, Falvey had this to say: “We watched Griffin Jax develop into someone we can rely on. What Jovani Moran did the last month of the season, it’s something he can really build upon.” Jax also moved from a starter to a reliever in 2022, and while he didn’t match Durán’s results, he still did well. With 65 appearances last year, he finished the year with a 3.36 ERA, 47.3% ground ball rate, 26.9% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate. Moran, meanwhile, put up a 2.21 ERA in 40 2/3 innings, keeping the ball on the ground at a 48.9% pace, while striking out 32.9% of batters faced, though he did walk 11% of them.

Though Falvey admits they might still make a small addition, it seems they feel they already have the high-leverage arms they need. “We feel like we have the eighth and ninth innings covered,” he says. Other relievers likely to be in the club’s bullpen include Caleb Thielbar, Emilio Pagán, Jorge Alcalá and Trevor Megill.

Twins Notes: Lewis, Polanco, Kirilloff, Miranda

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The Twins were leading the American League Central division for much of 2022. However, injuries mounted throughout the season and the Guardians surpassed them for good in September, eventually finishing 14 games ahead of Minnesota. Better health and depth will be key for the Twins if they are to have better results this year, and the club even went so far as to hire a new head athletic trainer, getting Nick Paparesta to jump over from the A’s. “I think he’s going to have a huge impact,” manager Rocco Baldelli told Dan Hayes of The Athletic recently. “I’m not just confident of it — I know he’s going to have a huge impact in what goes on inside those doors.”

One of the players whose health will be in focus in 2023 is Royce Lewis. The first overall selection in the 2017 draft, he’s long been considered one of the best prospects in the league. However, he struggled a bit in 2019 and then saw the minors wiped out by the pandemic in 2020. That was followed by a lost season in 2021 as he was diagnosed with a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in February, requiring season-ending surgery. He got things back on track nicely in 2022, hitting .313/.405/.534 in 34 Triple-A games and .300/.317/.550 in his first 12 major league games. Unfortunately, he tore the ACL in his right knee a second time in June, wiping out what remained of that season.

There were times this season that it seemed Carlos Correa would sign with the Giants and then Mets, leaving the future shortstop job open for Lewis to retake once healthy. However, Correa’s deals ended up getting scuttled by disagreements with those clubs about his physical and he wound up back with the Twins. His new deal comes with six guaranteed seasons and he could stick around for four more years via vesting options. While he might eventually move off shortstop at some point, it seems Lewis is blocked from that position for the foreseeable future. To help get into the lineup more last year, he played a little bit of outfield and third base in the minors, as well as some outfield in the majors. He tells Hayes that he would prefer to play on the infield but is open to time in the outfield again.

It likely won’t be an issue for a while, since his surgery was initially estimated to require a 12-month recovery period, meaning he likely won’t return until midway through the upcoming season. Though Lewis doesn’t have an update on his timeline, he did start hitting three weeks ago. Whenever he does return, he will be looking to crack an infield that should consist of Correa at short, Jorge Polanco at second, José Miranda at third and Alex Kirilloff at first.

There are some injury concerns elsewhere in that mix. Correa, of course, has a checkered injury past and the issues with the Giants and Mets raise questions about how his health will develop in the future. Polanco, meanwhile, was limited to 104 games last year by a pesky knee issue that eventually put him on the injured list for good in early September. He has declared himself to be healthy for the upcoming campaign, telling Hayes “I’m trying to really be out there playing, playing hard, letting the young guys know that I’m here to play hard. I want to set an example for them. I just want to be part of it.” Despite the nagging issue last year, he still hit 16 home runs and walked in 14.4% of his plate appearances for a batting line of .235/.346/.405 and a wRC+ of 119.

As for Kirilloff, the former first round draft pick has been dealing with persistent wrist issues, with each of his past two seasons ended by surgery. He’s back to swinging a bat now but is still sore. “They cut my bone so there’s definitely some aches and stuff to go along with that, but from a pain standpoint it feels good,” he says. “I think they’re expected to go away. I think anytime you break your bone it can take a lot longer than expected to heal. From my understanding, it gets to that certain point where it’s healed enough to do whatever you need to do and then it keeps healing for a while after that.”

He’s produced monster numbers in the minor leagues but the wrist issues have seemingly hampered him in the big leagues so far. Since starting 2019 in Double-A, Kirilloff has hit .305/.378/.484 in 574 minor league plate appearances for a wRC+ of 143. But in 387 major league appearances thus far, he’s slashed just .251/.295/.398 for a 91 wRC+. The club declined an option on Miguel Sanó and traded Luis Arraez to the Marlins, leaving the first base job wide open for Kirilloff if he’s healthy enough to take it.

Another player who could be in the mix at first is Miranda, though he seems to be ticketed for the third base job after Gio Urshela was traded to the Angels. Miranda made his debut last year and spent more time at first with Urshela across the diamond, but he can now go back to third, where he spent more time in the minors. His first season in the show went quite well, as he hit 15 home runs and batted .268/.325/.426 for a wRC+ of 117. He apparently felt worn down late last year and has been on a new workout program and diet, trying to eat more chicken and vegetables in lieu of sweets. “He looks sexy,” Correa said about Miranda. “You see that body? He looks sexy. He looks really good. He looks in shape, he looks ready to work.”

Nick Gordon and Kyle Farmer will be on hand to give the club some infield depth, though Lewis will also be trying to get back on the field and into the mix. His odds of helping the team here are probably better than their crowded outfield mix of Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, Michael A. Taylor, Trevor Larnach, Gilberto Celestino and Matt Wallner, with Gordon and Kirilloff potentially in the mix there as well. It’s possible that a trade thins out the outfield depth chart a bit, but it remains packed for now, with just two weeks to go until Spring Training.

White Sox Claim A.J. Alexy From Twins

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The White Sox announced that they have claimed right-hander A.J. Alexy off waivers from the Twins. He had been designated for assignment by Minnesota last week when that club acquired Michael A. Taylor from the Royals.

Alexy, 25 in April, was with the Rangers for the past few years, coming from the Dodgers in the 2017 Yu Darvish trade, but has been moving around quite a bit on the waiver wire this winter. Texas designated him for assignment in December and he went to the Nationals on a waiver claim. The Nats also designated him for assignment a few weeks later and dealt him to the Twins for pitching prospect Cristian Jimenez. The Twins improved their pitching depth by acquiring Pablo López from the Marlins and seemingly felt less need to hang onto Alexy, sending him into DFA limbo last week.

The righty is likely continuing to attract clubs for a few reasons. For one thing, he still has an option year and can be kept in the minors. Starting pitching depth is a perpetual concern around the league and Alexy can be useful in that regard. He also had a really strong showing in 2021, posting a 1.66 ERA in the minors over 65 innings, striking out 29.8% of batters faced. He did walk 10.6% of opponents but still impressed enough to make his major league debut, putting up a 4.70 ERA in 23 innings there.

2022 was a rough year for Alexy, as his four MLB appearances resulted in an ERA of 11.57. He spent most of the year in Triple-A but posted a 5.91 ERA down there. However, he’s still quite young and, as mentioned, still has an option year. He also has just 55 days of MLB service time, meaning he can still be affordably retained for the foreseeable future.

For the White Sox, they will likely have Dylan Cease, Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn and Michael Kopech taking up four spots in their rotation, but there’s uncertainty around who will be joining them. Mike Clevinger was signed to a one-year deal to fill out the squad but it was recently reported that he’s under investigation for domestic violence allegations. It’s unclear when that investigation will be completed, but it’s possible that Clevinger will be suspended at some point or perhaps placed on administrative leave while the investigation progresses. The club’s options on the 40-man roster to help out include Davis Martin, Jonathan Stiever and Jason Bilous, with Alexy now added into the mix. That latter group will presumably be competing in spring for either an immediate job in the rotation or one down the line as injuries inevitably pop up through the season.

Injury Notes: Kirilloff, Maeda, Ahmed

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Twins first baseman/outfielder Alex Kirilloff started swinging a bat earlier this month, and is currently taking 50-60 swings a day according to Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. Kirilloff underwent season-ending wrist surgery in August last year.

Kirilloff has long battled wrist injuries, landing on the IL four times for that reason since making his big league debut in 2021. The once highly touted prospect hasn’t hit much in his time in the majors, compiling a combined .251/.295/.398 line with 11 home runs over 387 plate appearances. That’s a disappointing return for a bat-first player, although it is fair to wonder just how much these wrist issues have hampered his output even when he’s been on the active roster.

The Twins have a crowded outfield picture at the moment, particularly after acquiring Michael A. Taylor from the Royals, but the trade of Luis Arraez has seemingly opened up first base for Kirilloff. Given the injuries and output to date, there’s quite a bit of risk in relying on the 25-year-old as the primary first baseman, but there’s also significant upside too. Kirilloff was one of the top prospects in baseball before reaching the big leagues, and if he can show he’s past his wrist issues and unlock some of his potential that Twins could find themselves with a valuable middle-of-the-order bat.

Here’s some other notes from around the league:

  • Sticking with the Twins to begin with, starter Kenta Maeda is set for a normal spring training with no restrictions, according to Dan Hayes of The Athletic. Maeda missed the entire 2022 season as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. Maeda, 35 in April, is entering the final year of his contract and set to earn a modest $3MM salary. Given he underwent internal brace TJ surgery which typically requires a slightly shorter recovery time, and there had initially been hope that Maeda would be available towards the backend of last season, it’s not a huge surprise that he’s shaping up nicely for 2023. Maeda’s most recent sample of work came in 2021, when he worked to a 4.66 ERA over 21 starts.
  • As he works his way back from shoulder surgery, Diamondbacks shortstop Nick Ahmed has begun hitting and throwing, per Nick Piecoro of AZ Central. Piecoro adds that Ahmed is not expected to have any restrictions by the time spring training rolls around. Having been hampered by shoulder problems for the past few years, Ahmed underwent season-ending surgery in June last year having been restricted to just 17 games in 2022. Ahmed has never been a huge threat at the plate, but has been one of the game’s best defenders at shortstop, amassing 154 Outs Above Average since 2016, trailing only Francisco Lindor’s 161 for best in baseball in that timeframe. Ahmed, 33 in March, is entering the final year of his contract and will take home a $10.375MM payday in 2023.

Yankees Have Shown Interest In David Peralta

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The Yankees have been in contact with free agent outfielder David Peralta this offseason, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. It isn’t clear whether talks are ongoing, as Heyman suggests the Yankees look likelier to roll with their in-house options in left field.

That position has been a prominent talking point among the fanbase throughout the offseason. That’s due to the two-year struggles of Aaron Hicks, who’s coming off a .216/.330/.313 showing through 453 plate appearances. That marked an improvement over his .194/.294/.333 line during an injury-riddled 2021 season but was still below average.

Given the stiff competition the Yankees are facing in the AL East, one could certainly argue for general manager Brian Cashman and his staff to seek out an upgrade. They’ve been tied to an array of left field possibilities. That includes the top remaining free agent, Jurickson Profar, and trade candidates like Bryan Reynolds and Max Kepler. Pittsburgh has reportedly set a massive asking price in talks regarding Reynolds. Minnesota dealing Kepler this offseason still seems possible, though Heyman writes there isn’t any current traction between the Yankees and Twins on that front.

Peralta’s part of a veteran fallback contingent for teams looking to augment their corner outfield but unwilling to meet Profar’s asking price. The longtime Diamondback had a great 2018 season in which he connected on 30 homers, but he’s posted roughly average offensive numbers in the four years since then. The left-handed batter owns a .266/.329/.425 mark since the start of the 2019 season. That includes a .251/.316/.415 showing over 490 trips between Arizona and the Rays last year.

While the bottom line numbers for the nine-year MLB veteran didn’t much change, the shape of his production did. Peralta significantly cut back on his ground balls last season, putting the ball on the dirt 36.3% of the time after hovering around 50% in every previous season of his career. The fly-ball oriented approach looked to be resulting in better power output earlier in the season, as Peralta carried a .460 slugging mark through 87 games in Arizona. Things cratered after he was dealt to the Rays, as he didn’t collect a single longball and stumbled to a .255/.317/.335 slash over 180 plate appearances with Tampa Bay.

Peralta’s a low-cost veteran option during his first trip to free agency. Yet even a modest deal might prove too costly for the Yankees given their reported spending limit. Heyman wrote last week the club doesn’t want to surpass the $293MM luxury tax mark that’d subject them to the highest penalization level on spending. Roster Resource calculates their CBT number around $292.3MM at the moment. Virtually any acquisition would likely push the Yankees past that threshold.

If the Yankees do stick with their internal left field options, the competition would figure to come down to Hicks and youngster Oswaldo Cabrera. The latter hit .247/.312/.429 in 44 games as a rookie, outperforming Hicks in 2022. Nevertheless, Cashman suggested last weekend in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM the veteran could have the upper hand in a camp battle (h/t to Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). While Cashman called the situation “fluid,” he noted he expects “(Hicks) will be the guy that emerges, because he’s still really talented and everything’s there.“

Marlins Back Off Pursuit Of Yuli Gurriel

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The Marlins have scaled back their efforts to sign baseman Yuli Gurriel, per Craig Mish of the Miami Herald, who reports that they’ve “stopped any aggressive pursuit” of the former Astros infielder. MLB.com had reported over the weekend that the Marlins were “moving toward a deal” with the 38-year-old Gurriel. The addition of another first baseman remains possible, Mish adds, but Gurriel doesn’t appear likely to land with the Fish at this point.

It’s something of an about-face for a Marlins team that looked to be gearing up for the addition of a second premium contact hitter just days after acquiring Luis Arraez from the Twins. Gurriel has fanned in just 11.2% of his 3305 Major League plate appearances since signing with the Astros in 2016; this past season’s 12.5% strikeout rate was a career-high for Gurriel, but it was also still more than ten percentage points better than the league average.

The Marlins reportedly had interest in using Gurriel at multiple positions, bouncing him between first base, second base and third base. That’d be a change for Gurriel, who outside of two innings at the hot corner in 2021, has been exclusively a first baseman for each of the past three seasons. Gurriel generally has a strong defensive track record, though metrics like Defensive Runs Saved (-2) and Outs Above Average (-9) soured on him in 2022 just one year after he won a Gold Glove in 2021.

If Miami is still seeking another option at first base, the free-agent market has largely been picked over but still has a few options. Old friend Jesus Aguilar remains unsigned, as do sluggers Luke Voit and Miguel Sano. Like Gurriel, all three are in search of a rebound campaign from lackluster performances and/or injury. Miami currently projects for a $103MM payroll, per Roster Resource, which would be only the third time topping $100MM in franchise history. It’s not clear just how much Miami has left to spend, though their weekend link to Gurriel clearly suggests there’s at least a bit of payroll capacity left.

It’s been a generally quiet winter with regard to Gurriel, although Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base reported over the weekend that the Twins were also in the mix to acquire his services. It’s not clear at this time if the dwindling talks with Miami are reflective of progress on the Twins’ behalf.

Minnesota added another right-handed bat last night when acquiring Michael A. Taylor from the Royals, though Gurriel would give them another contact-oriented infield bat to help offset Arraez’s departure. Former top prospect Alex Kirilloff seems likely to handle first base for the Twins in 2023 — assuming he’s recovered from a pair of wrist surgeries (one in 2021 and another in 2022). Gurriel would give them an experienced righty bat to pair with the lefty-hitting Kirilloff, and he could mix in at designated hitter as well, where Minnesota currently looks like they’ll cycle through a number of options.

Twins Designate A.J. Alexy For Assignment

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After officially announcing their acquisition of Michael A. Taylor from the Royals, the Twins have designated right-hander A.J. Alexy for assignment.

Alexy was acquired from the Nationals earlier this month — on the same day as Carlos Correa’s thoroughly-covered physical with the Twins — but the 24-year-old is now off the 40-man roster in Minnesota and moves again into DFA limbo.

An 11th-round pick by the Dodgers in the 2016 MLB Draft out of a Pennsylvania high school, Alexy made his big league debut with the Rangers in 2021 and showed pretty well in his first cup of coffee before getting lit up for nine earned runs over seven innings last year with Texas. He was claimed off waivers by Washington in December but was part of that organization for less than a month.

Alexy’s stint on the 40-man roster in Minnesota lasted less than two weeks, though he could feasibly pass through waivers unclaimed this time around and would then have to accept an outright assignment to Triple-A St. Paul.

Twins Acquire Michael A. Taylor From Royals

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The Twins added some outfield depth Monday evening, announcing the acquisition of Michael A. Taylor from the division-rival Royals. Minor league relievers Evan Sisk and Steven Cruz are headed back to Kansas City. Right-hander A.J. Alexy was designated for assignment to clear a spot for Taylor on the 40-man roster.

Taylor has spent the past two years in Kansas City. Initially signed to a one-year, $1.75MM guarantee over the 2020-21 offseason, Taylor impressed Royals’ brass with his excellent outfield defense. The rangy center fielder proved a perfect fit for spacious Kauffman Stadium and an organization that places a premium on defense. He secured his first career Gold Glove in 2021 and earned himself a $9MM extension covering the 2022-23 campaigns late in that season.

During the first season of that new two-year deal, Taylor continued his typically excellent defensive play. He logged just over 1000 innings of center field work, with Defensive Runs Saved pegging him as 19 runs better than average at the outfield’s most demanding position. It was the second consecutive year in which DRS graded him at +19 runs, making him far and away the game’s most valuable defensive outfielder by that metric. Since the start of 2021, no other center fielder has tallied more than 21 total DRS — with second-place Myles Straw well behind Taylor’s cumulative +38 mark.

Statcast wasn’t quite as enthusiastic last season, though it also rated him as an above-average center fielder. Its Outs Above Average metric put Taylor at +5 runs last year after rating him 14 runs above average the previous season. Straw narrowly edges him out over the two-year stretch by that measure, but Taylor still checks in second at the position going back to the start of the ’21 season.

Byron Buxton, of course, is one of the few outfielders in the game who’s as good or better than Taylor defensively. He hasn’t the same opportunity to vault to the top of the league in cumulative defensive metrics, however, as injuries have kept him off the field. Buxton has played 955 center field innings over the past two years, fewer than Taylor has reached in each individual season. He’s suffered strains in his right hip in each of the last two seasons and missed a couple months in the second half of 2021 after fracturing his left hand on a hit-by-pitch. Buxton also played through a right knee injury last season, one that required season-ending surgical repair once the Twins fell out of playoff contention.

The All-Star outfielder shows MVP-caliber upside when healthy and will obviously remain Minnesota’s starting center fielder. He’s only once topped 100 games in a season, however, so it’s understandable the Twins want to fortify their depth behind him. Gilberto Celestino was the top reserve option last year, but he hit only .238/.313/.302 with a pair of home runs in 347 trips to the plate. Celestino is a quality defender but not at Taylor’s level. With a minor league option year still remaining, the 23-year-old could open the season in Triple-A St. Paul now that he’s been jumped on the depth chart.

Right fielder Max Kepler is athletic enough to handle center field if needed, though there’s no guarantee he’ll even be on the roster come Opening Day. Minnesota has a number of left-handed hitting outfielders, raising the possibility of them dealing from that group to address other areas like first base or the bullpen. Kepler, as the oldest player in the group and the one with the least amount of remaining club control, would be the most straightforward candidate for such a move.

The Twins traded for an outfielder in spite of that seeming surplus, though Taylor’s right-handed bat will help to balance things. He’s posted below-average overall offensive numbers throughout his career, carrying a .241/.296/.381 line over parts of nine big league seasons. Aside from a solid .271/.320/.486 showing with the Nationals in 2017, he’s been a subpar hitter in every year. That has been the case regardless of pitcher handedness, though he’s predictably been a little better when holding the platoon advantage. Taylor carries a .257/.310/.412 career line against left-handed pitching, compared to a .235/.290/.369 mark against righties.

Strikeouts have been the primary issue for the 31-year-old. He’s punched out in 29.4% of his career trips to the plate while walking at a meager 6.9% rate. To his credit, Taylor did take a bit of a step forward in that department last season. His 23.9% strikeout rate was a personal low, only a couple percentage points higher than the league mark. He seemed to sacrifice a little in the way of impact to do so, with last season’s 32.3% hard contact rate representing the lowest figure of his career.

Taylor obviously won’t be counted upon to provide much of an offensive jolt. He brings some lineup balance, joining Celestino as the only righty-swinging outfielders on the 40-man roster. More importantly, he’ll offer manager Rocco Baldelli a quality defensive option either off the bench or if needed in the event Buxton misses time.

It’s an affordable addition for the Twins, who’ll assume the $4.5MM Taylor’s due during the upcoming season before hitting free agency. That brings Minnesota’s projected payroll to $155MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That’ll be a franchise-record mark, with the club opening last year in the $134MM range. The Twins had been fairly quiet this offseason until the calendar flipped to 2023, but they’ve re-signed Carlos Correa, flipped Luis Arraez for Pablo López and prospects and now brought in Taylor within a matter of weeks. Minnesota figures to continue to scour the market for upgrades, at least around the margins, as they battle the Guardians and White Sox in the AL Central.

The Royals, meanwhile, ship away a veteran for future help on the heels of a 65-win season. Taylor looked like one of the better trade candidates on the roster as an impending free agent. Kansas City set a fairly significant ask initially, reportedly targeting right-hander Josh Winder in talks with the Twins. Minnesota balked and the sides eventually pivoted to a pair of minor leaguers.

Sisk, 26 in April, entered the professional ranks as a 16th-round pick of the Cardinals in 2018. The College of Charleston product landed in Minnesota at the 2021 trade deadline in the deal that sent J.A. Happ to St. Louis. A left-handed reliever, Sisk split the season between Double-A Wichita and St. Paul. He threw 63 innings through 50 appearances, posting a brilliant 1.57 ERA while punching out an excellent 29.8% of batters faced. Yet he also walked an alarming 11.4% of opponents and has shown scattershot control throughout his time in the minors.

It’s a similar story with Cruz, a 6’7″ right-hander. Signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2017, he’s pitched 192 1/3 frames through five minor league seasons. Cruz spent the entire 2022 season in Wichita, showing a similar high-strikeout, high-walk approach as Sisk. The 23-year-old fanned 28% of opponents but walked batters at a near-14% rate. Baseball America wrote last season that Cruz can touch triple-digits and owns an upper-80’s slider that gives him a chance to carve out an MLB bullpen spot if he can better hone the strike-throwing.

Neither Sisk nor Cruz are on the 40-man roster. Both players were left unprotected for and went undrafted in this offseason’s Rule 5 draft. They’ll give the Kansas City player development staff a pair of upper-level bullpen possibilities with the clear ability to miss bats. Both pitchers could get a look at some point in 2023. Cruz would be eligible for minor league free agency if he’s not added to the 40-man roster by next offseason.

Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN first reported the Twins were acquiring Taylor. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported Sisk and Cruz were heading back to Kansas City.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Twins Notes: Rotation, Ober, Arraez

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The dust is still settling in the aftermath of the Twins’ big four-player trade with the Marlins this past week, as Luis Arraez was sent to Miami in exchange for right-hander Pablo Lopez and prospects Jose Salas and Byron Chourio.  The move shook up Minnesota’s lineup and added yet another external arm to the Twins’ rotation.

As noted by Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, all five members of the projected starting five (Lopez, Tyler Mahle, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, and Kenta Maeda) were all acquired in trades over the last three years.  Chris Paddack is currently recovering from Tommy John surgery but was also acquired in a trade with the Padres prior to last season, while Simeon Woods Richardson is another arm on the depth arm that came to the Twins as part of the deal that sent Jose Berrios to the Blue Jays at the 2021 trade deadline.

While it is somewhat unusual for a team to built its rotation entirely via the trade market, Twins chief baseball officer Derek Falvey was blunt in telling reporters (including Miller and Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press) that, “I don’t care where [the starters] come from.  We need really good starters and we need really good pitchers.  Some of those are going to be free-agent signings, some of those are going to be trades, and some of those will also hopefully be from development.  But the goal here is to continue to deepen the starting rotation and pitching staff however we can do it.”

Bailey Ober is a homegrown product, selected by the Twins in the twelfth round of the 2017 draft.  The right-hander has pitched well in 148 1/3 innings and 31 starts over the last two seasons, though Lopez’s addition seemingly pushes Ober out of the rotation mix for now.  Of course, rotations rarely stay healthy for an entire season, leaving opportunity for Ober or other pitchers like Woods Richardson, Josh Winder, Louie Varland, etc. to make some starts if one of the top five needs to visit the injured list.

There’s also a chance that the starting five becomes a starting six, as adopting a six-man rotation is “something we talk about a lot,” Falvey admitted.  Minnesota’s depth gives the team the flexibility to shift to a six-man rotation if necessary, and “I will tell you that our hope right now is that we will go with five starters, and we feel like we have five good ones…but ultimately [we] have some depth behind it to make sure that we’re in a good place.”  If everyone stays healthy and the Twins do end up with a surplus of starting candidates, Falvey described that potential scenario as “a great problem to have.”

The Lopez trade closes the book on Arraez’s tenure with the Twins, as the infielder went from being a fairly unknown prospect to being an All-Star, Silver Slugger winner, and AL batting champion in 2022.  Arraez was already a strong performer in the three years prior to his big 2022 campaign, but his performance did dip a bit in an injury-shortened 2021 season.  In the wake of that relative down year, Jim Souhan of the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes that the Twins had some talks with Arraez about a long-term extension, but Arraez turned the club down.

As a Super Two player, Arraez is eligible for four trips through the arbitration process, and he and the Twins avoided a hearing in Arraez’s first year of arb-eligibility by agreeing to a $2.125MM salary for the 2022 season.  While the terms of Minnesota’s extension offer aren’t known, it is fair to guess that the Twins were looking for a deal that would’ve covered all four of those arbitration years, as well as at least one of Arraez’s free agent years.  Signing such a contract would’ve locked in a nice guarantee for Arraez, and the first major payday of a career that began with a modest $40K bonus as an international signing.

But, Arraez opted to instead bet on himself to rebound from his 2021 season, and that self-confidence paid off nicely.  Prior to the trade, Arraez and the Twins were headed to an arbitration hearing after not being able to reach a salary agreement before the arbitration figure-exchange deadline — Arraez is looking for a $6.1MM salary, while the Twins countered with $5MM.  It seems possible that the Marlins might still go to a hearing with Arraez due to general front office principle, even if an arbitration hearing would be something of an awkward start to the relationship between the infielder and his new team.

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