Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

MLBTR Originals

2018-19 Market Snapshot: Third Base

By | at

This is the latest installment in our Market Snapshot series. Today, we’ll round out the infield by taking stock of the situation at the hot corner.

Teams In Need

There aren’t many committed contenders with glaring holes at third base, which is rather interesting given the number of quality options on the open market this year. Of course, there are still quite a few teams that can and arguably should pursue upgrades at the hot corner.

It seems reasonable to expect the 2019 season to feature another shoot-out between the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East. Both have talented young players at third, in Miguel Andujar and Rafael Devers, but have at various points faced questions regarding their commitment to those options. Somewhat similarly, the Braves and Phillies could perhaps justifiably rely on existing players (Johan Camargo/Austin Riley and Maikel Franco/J.P. Crawford) but surely also like the idea of improving.

The central divisions have several potential destinations to watch. The White Sox are an interesting opportunistic buyer, while the ALC-rival Indians could choose to utilize star infielder Jose Ramirez at second or third base, putting them in play here as well. It’s not clear what the Twins will do with Miguel Sano, but it’s certainly possible they’ll prefer to have another player at third base. On the NL side, it’s arguable that the Cardinals ought to be looking at the hot corner as a place to improve, though the organization still has alternatives on hand and may not wish to commit for too long a stretch with a slate of intriguing prospects nearing the majors. Meanwhile, the Pirates will at least need a platoon partner for Colin Moran, while the Brewers were comfortable moving Travis Shaw off of third base this year and could conceivably do so again over the longer haul.

Several other organizations could be looking to add as well, though none figure to be big spenders. The Padres are in a bit of an odd spot. There’s a slate of internal possibilities — including some top prospects nearing the majors and still-wandering defender Wil Myers — but it’s also possible to imagine scenarios where they seek a gap-filler or even pursue a significant player. The Diamondbacks, depending upon their approach to the winter and the health of Jake Lamb, could be a factor. Meanwhile, the Royals, Orioles, and Marlins aren’t committed to anyone at the position — Brian Anderson is a factor at the hot corner and the corner outfield for Miami — but also won’t be prioritizing near-term performance.

Free Agents

Potential Regulars: Manny Machado is easily the top asset in this class — if, that is, he’s really willing to consider signing as a third baseman as opposed to insisting on playing shortstop. Still, it’s arguable that Josh Donaldson is an even more interesting player to watch. The former star is entering his age-33 season on the heels of an injury-plagued campaign, but showed flashes of his former brilliance in a late-season run with the Indians (.280/.400/.520 in 60 plate appearances) before a disappointing-but-brief postseason showing.

Mike Moustakas represents a solid option for those teams looking to plug in a steady piece at the hot corner — and willing to overlook his well-established OBP limitations. Organizations with greater interest in moving players around, however, may look elsewhere. Eduardo Escobar and Marwin Gonzalez are not substantially younger than Moustakas, and aren’t quite the power threats, but also have much more experience at other spots around the infield. They are also both switch-hitters. Either player could conceivably end up seeing significant action at a given position, perhaps third base, or moving around the field.

A few other veterans also represent quite notable factors on the market, though it’s somewhat difficult to tab any as clear options for everyday duties at third. Adrian Beltre is generally seen as being likely either to re-up with the Rangers or retire, but he’d be an interesting target for some clubs if he decides to test the market. Meanwhile, Asdrubal Cabrera and especially Jed Lowrie have legitimate cases to continue receiving consistent playing time, though it’s not yet clear whether teams will view them as regulars at one position — in Lowrie’s case, especially, second base seems likelier than third — or more as heavily-used utility pieces.

Timeshare/Utility/Reserve Options: David Freese has hit enough that the Dodgers will need to seriously consider his $6MM option. Otherwise, he’ll be a popular veteran target. Josh Harrison will also draw interest in the likely event that his own option is declined; though he’s more of a utility option at this point, his ability to play third will increase his appeal. Several other bounceback candidates — Logan Forsythe, Jung-ho Kang, Sean Rodriguez, Pablo Sandoval and Luis Valbuena — will be available.

Depth Options: Ryan Flaherty, Chase Headley, Jose Reyes, Andrew Romine, Danny Valencia

Trade Targets

Nobody would draw more rental interest than Nolan Arenado, who has drawn at least some speculation as a target, but there’s no real reason to think the Rockies will be willing to listen after a season in which they reached the postseason. He’s likely the only star player who’s even a hypothetical trade piece, and perhaps the only true regular as well.

It could be that the Rangers will listen on Joey Gallo or Jurickson Profar, though both have graded better defensively at other positions and have rather clear paths to significant playing time in Texas. Neither seems likely to be targeted as an everyday option at the hot corner elsewhere. The aforementioned Franco is a possible buy-low candidate if the Phillies go in a different direction, while there are some clubs that might consider utilizing Sano at the hot corner if the Twins decide to cut bait. If they move, this pair will likely hold the most interest for rebuilding teams that can take a chance on the upside.

Otherwise, conceivable part-time trade candidates include Derek Dietrich and Martin Prado of the Marlins, Eduardo Nunez of the Red Sox (assuming he picks up his club option), Yolmer Sanchez of the White Sox, Jedd Gyorko of the Cardinals, Yangervis Solarte of the Blue Jays, and Tommy La Stella of the Cubs.

More interesting trade possibilities could certainly also open up once the free agent market begins to resolve itself. Contenders that choose to invest in high-end veterans, after all, may find themselves with quality younger players that can be utilized as assets to acquire other pieces.

Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

By | at

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

In one of the most fascinating seasons in recent memory, the Rays overhauled their roster, rid themselves of virtually all major financial commitments, experimented with a new way of how to view a “starting pitcher”…and were all the better on the field for it.  The Rays shocked baseball with a 90-win season, defying the preseason belief in some quarters that they’d be one of the league’s worst teams.  Instead, Tampa will now look to augment an already-talented core group with a few more pieces that can get the club back into the playoffs.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Kevin Kiermaier, CF: $44MM through 2022 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2023)

Arbitration Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Tampa Bay Rays depth chart | Tampa Bay Rays payroll outlook]

After going into fire-sale mode last winter, the Rays continued to unload veteran names throughout the 2018 season, ultimately sending Alex Colome, Denard Span, Brad Miller, Matt Andriese, Nathan Eovaldi, Wilson Ramos, Adeiny Hechavarria, and Chris Archer out of town in a series of trades.  It was the Archer deal, completed on deadline day, that really seemed to mark an end of an era in Rays baseball, as Tampa finally dealt its long-time top starter and firmly looked ahead to the future.

One could hardly have guessed, however, that the “future” would come so soon.  Tampa’s 54-53 record on July 31 was already enough of a surprise for a team widely predicted to be a non-contender, yet the Rays went into overdrive over the final two months, posting a 36-19 mark in August and September that allowed the team to reach the 90-win plateau for just the sixth time in franchise history.

Almost all of the core group that contributed to that late-season hot streak will be returning in 2019.  Matt Duffy, Willy Adames, Joey Wendle, and Jake Bauers currently project as the starting infield, with Daniel Robertson and Brandon Lowe providing utility depth.  Robertson (who was hampered by injuries last year) could very well push Duffy or Adames for regular duty at third base or shortstop, while prospects Christian Arroyo and Nathaniel Lowe could be in the mix for playing time.  Wendle’s breakout year as a super-utility weapon can also put him and Lowe in the corner outfield mix, as they’ll join Austin Meadows as the backup choices behind Tommy Pham, Kevin Kiermaier, and Mallex Smith.

Of course, recently-extended skipper Kevin Cash will have plenty of opportunity to mix and match in search of favorable match-ups. And it seems likely that the front office braintrust, led by GM Erik Neander and senior baseball ops VP Chaim Bloom, isn’t quite done tinkering with this mix. Just how they’ll approach the offseason isn’t easy to guess from the outside, but it stands to reason they’ll both target some areas of need and explore opportunities to achieve value.

One area that seems ripe for some change is the catching position. Michael Perez has the inside track on at least a share of the regular role behind the dish, though the team is likely to acquire a veteran to compete with Nick Ciuffo for the right to work as Perez’s platoon partner or backup.  A right-handed hitting catcher could be a better fit, as both Perez and Ciuffo hit from the left side.

The Tampa Bay brass will have some decisions to make at first base. Ji-Man Choi exploded after joining the Rays in a minor midseason deal with Milwaukee, posting an .877 OPS over 189 plate appearances in a Tampa Bay uniform.  While Choi has played first base and left field in his brief MLB career, the Rays used him almost exclusively as a designated hitter and against right-handed pitching, so there’s room on the bench for another first-base capable righty bat to spell either Choi or Bauers.  It’s possible Tampa could simply rotate its internal options through the DH spot to keep everyone fresh, or further take advantage of the versatility offered by Wendle or Robertson by giving either the occasional start at first base.

The other option would be to pursue a relatively low-cost first baseman in free agency or on the trade market, or simply to retain C.J. Cron in arbitration.  Though Cron hit .253/.323/.493 with a career-high 30 homers over 560 PA last season, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, suggested that Cron will probably be dealt or even non-tendered.  It could be that Cron’s somewhat one-dimensional offensive game and ability to only play one position make him an odd fit on a club that ended up prioritizing lineup flexibility and almost eschewing power (27th of 30 teams in home runs) to create a more diverse offense based around contact hitting, speed, and reaching base.  (While Choi has many of the same limitations as Cron, Choi is also a pre-arb player with five years of team control.)

There’s also the fact that Cron’s projected arbitration salary is $5.2MM, so the Rays may believe they can find similar production in a power-heavy league for a lower price.  Depending on how the rest of the first base market shakes out, Tampa Bay could also non-tender Cron and then try to re-sign him for less money.  This may seem like a tough fate for Cron in the wake of a 30-homer, 122 wRC+ season, but as we’ve seen over the last two offseasons, teams simply haven’t been willing to pay much for non-elite first base/DH bats.

After unloading so many of their more expensive players who were already under contract or in line for higher arbitration numbers, this will be the first offseason in a while where payroll isn’t necessarily of the utmost concern for the Rays front office.  Kiermaier is the only player guaranteed money in 2019 and beyond, putting the Rays on pace for a 2019 payroll not even half the size of their $76.39MM payroll from Opening Day 2018.  This “allows greater flexibility” for the Rays in their offseason acquisitions, as Neander told Topkin and other reporters, though I wouldn’t expect Tampa Bay to spend anywhere close to $76MM in player salaries.  You could see the Rays spread some money around on a few players rather than a singular big splash, and maybe save a bit more for midseason additions if necessary.

More room could be created if a trade partner could be found for Kiermaier, who is owed $44MM through 2022 (this figure includes the $2.5MM buyout of a $13MM club option for 2023) and may be expendable since Smith and Meadows can both play center field.  The Rays would be selling low on Kiermaier in the wake of another injury-plagued year for the defensive standout, as he was limited to 88 games due to thumb surgery and then a hairline fracture in his foot in the season’s final week.

Kiermaier has played in just 291 of a possible 486 games over the last three seasons, and his hitting numbers took a drop in 2018 after climbing above average (108 wRC+) in 2016-17.  A healthy Kiermaier who delivers even moderate offense along with his elite glovework can be a major plus in any lineup, so it could be that the Rays hang onto the 28-year-old into next season to see if he can help them contend, or to let him rebuild value for a potential swap.

Whether Kiermaier is one of the players on the move or not, expect Neander and company to again heavily focus on the trade market for the bulk of their winter activity.  (The Mariners and Diamondbacks, in particular, should be on alert for calls from a 727 or 813 area code.)  Some deals will be necessary just to create some 40-man roster space, as the Rays are facing a crunch to protect enough of their prospects before the Rule 5 draft, though Tampa could also make trade chips of some of these well-regarded minor leaguers plus any Major League roster members that the team doesn’t see as long-term pieces.

It will be particularly interesting to see how the Rays address their rotation, such as it is, as the team has already said that the “opener” strategy will again be deployed in 2019.  The Rays’ unconventional use of a short reliever to start a game’s first inning or two before giving way to a long reliever (a.k.a. the “headliner”) generated much controversy around baseball — some praised the creativity, while others questioned whether the strategy would prove too taxing on a bullpen over the long haul, in addition to criticism that Tampa was ruining the starting pitcher’s status within the game.

Given the results, however, the Rays would’ve probably faced more criticism if they abandoned what proved to be a winning method.  The Rays posted the sixth-lowest team ERA in baseball, and their strong finishes in various fielding-independent pitching metrics (fifth in FIP, seventh in SIERA, ninth in xFIP) and a .297 wOBA-against that almost directly matched their .300 xwOBA-against indicated that the performance wasn’t built on good fortune.

One big reason the Rays were able to succeed with their openers, of course, was the fact that they had a more traditional ace develop in the form of AL Cy Young Award contender Blake Snell.  Attempting to sign Snell to an extension would mean negotiating with him after a breakout season, though he and his reps will surely have at least some interest in locking in some earnings and protecting against the risk that comes with the job. Certainly, the Rays have proven able in the past to strike such deals when they wish to, a practice that has saved the club loads of money in the long run and ultimately facilitated some notable trades.  Even if Snell doesn’t quite match his 2018 production going forward, a young starter signed to a reasonable contract can still be quite a valuable asset, as we saw with the strong haul that Tampa Bay received for Archer.

Going into 2019, Snell and Tyler Glasnow are the only projected full-time starters in the rotation.  Yonny Chirinos and Ryan Yarbrough were the most successful of the headliners and could be fully stretched out to be proper starters, or the Rays could simply continue to use them in their 2018 roles.  Top pitching prospects Brent Honeywell and Jose De Leon should be available by midseason as they return from Tommy John surgery, though it seems likely that they’ll be used as headliners in order to ease them back into regular pitching duty.  Such a long relief job might also be the best use of young right-hander Jake Faria, who is trying to rebound from a disappointing and injury-shortened season.

Normally, a low-payroll team with just two set starters would seem like an ideal candidate to acquire a veteran arm to eat innings.  If the opener strategy has taught us anything, however, it’s that such expenditures might not be worth it for a team looking to save their dollars — why pay a veteran even a modest $5MM or $6MM per season to chew up innings once every five games when a shrewdly-deployed bullpen can do the same at a fraction of the cost, and with likely better results?  If anything, the Rays could look to sign a veteran arm coming off a rough season or an injury with an eye towards turning them into a headliner to rebuild their value, as it did recently with Eovaldi.

The Rays could also spend on their bullpen by bringing in more swingmen capable of tossing multiple innings, or a veteran with closing experience to replace free agent Sergio Romo.  Jose Alvarado earned an increasing number of save opportunities down the stretch and is probably the Rays’ top in-house choice to take over the closer’s job, though hard-throwing Ryne Stanek (the most frequent of the openers, “starting” 29 games) has also often been tabbed a closer of the future. Given these varying needs, Trevor Rosenthal could be an interesting target. Not only is he likely to present some value upside as a Tommy John rehabber, but he has plenty of high-leverage experience and a well-documented desire to be given a chance to throw more innings.

Of course, it’s probably not safe to assume that the Rays will use a traditional closer rather than mix and match their ninth inning plans based on matchups.  After all, nothing can really be ruled out when it comes to the Rays and data-driven strategies.  The team already took care of one bit of business by extending Cash, ensuring that the Rays’ creativity pipeline will continue to flow as usual within both the front office and the dugout.  It could be that opponents will start to figure out the Rays’ tricks over the course of a full season, though the team’s deep wealth of multi-positional players and multi-role pitchers make them a difficult team to prepare against.

The success of this in-season rebuild on the fly has put the Rays in position to compete for a wild card spot in 2019, or perhaps even mount a challenge to the Red Sox and Yankees for AL East supremacy if everything absolutely breaks right.  As eye-opening as the Rays’ tactics were in 2018, it will be just as interesting to see how they take the next step forward this winter.

Poll: Paul Goldschmidt’s Future

By | at

Even though he still has another year of team control remaining, superstar first baseman Paul Goldschmidt – a Diamondback since they chose him in the eighth round of the 2009 draft – may be in his final days with the club. While the path the Diamondbacks will take during the offseason is uncertain, general manager Mike Hazen hasn’t ruled out a full rebuild. Arizona’s in a bind in terms of payroll, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained earlier this week, and set to lose two of its best players to free agency in left-hander Patrick Corbin and center fielder A.J. Pollock.

In the event those factors do lead to a teardown in the desert, the logical move may be to at least gauge interest in the 31-year-old Goldschmidt. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported earlier this week Arizona will indeed “listen on” Goldschmidt, as dealing him would help restock a barren farm system which Baseball America (subscription required) ranks as the game’s fourth worst.

Between the free-agent and trade markets, Goldschmidt would easily be the premier first base option available. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd wrote Wednesday, there don’t seem to be any starting-caliber first basemen set to reach free agency, while all of Goldschmidt’s fellow trade candidates at the position pale in comparison to the six-time All-Star. Those factors – not to mention Goldschmdt’s affordable salary (he’ll play 2019 on a $14.5MM club option) – would likely lead to widespread interest.

2019 will be the final season of the six-year, $46.5MM extension (including the option) he inked with the D-backs entering 2013. The decision to lock up Goldschmidt before he turned into an elite player will go down as one of the best in franchise history, given that the pact has been a steal from the get-go. He broke out in earnest during the first year of it, turning in a 6.0-fWAR campaign, and hasn’t really slowed down since. Now coming off a 5.1-fWAR season (the fifth year of at least 5.0 fWAR in his career), Goldschmidt’s facing an uncertain future for the first time since signing his team-friendly contract.

The D-backs may well keep Goldschmidt through the winter and try to extend one of their all-time greats, regardless of whether they expect to bounce back from an 82-win season in 2019. But if the team doesn’t think it’s going to contend in the near future, or if it’s simply unable to come to terms with Goldschmidt, we may have seen the last of him in a Diamondbacks uniform.

(poll link for app users)

Do you expect the D-backs to trade Paul Goldschmidt this offseason?
Yes 55.83% (5,677 votes)
No 44.17% (4,492 votes)
Total Votes: 10,169

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Statcast Standouts: Pending FA Hitters

By | at

Major League Baseball’s postseason has shrunk to four teams, meaning we’re only a few weeks away from the opening of free agency. As always, some pending free-agent hitters are coming off excellent seasons in terms of bottom-line results, while others posted uninspiring production in platform years. Thanks to the introduction of Statcast (via Baseball Savant) a few years ago, we now have a better idea of which players deserved their results from this past regular season. With that in mind, using two Statcast metrics – expected weighted on-base average and average exit velocity on line drives and fly balls – we’ll take a look at the top pending FA hitters at each position. These numbers don’t factor in a batter’s age, handedness, his defense or his expected asking price, of course, but they give a better idea of what kind of season he’s coming off as a hitter as he heads to free agency.

(Note: We’re going with exit velo on liners/fly balls as a way to take grounders out of the equation, as they’re simply less valuable than air balls.)

Catchers:

Expected weighted on-base average

  1. Yasmani Grandal – .345 (real wOBA: .352)
  2. Wilson Ramos – .342 (.362)
  3. Kurt Suzuki – .331 (.335)
  4. A.J. Ellis – .327 (.325)
  5. Matt Wieters – .313 (.308); Nick Hundley – .313 (.304)

Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls

  1. Wilson Ramos – 95.4 mph
  2. Yasmani Grandal – 94.5
  3. A.J. Ellis – 93.5
  4. Matt Wieters, Nick Hundley and Jeff Mathis – 92.2
  5. Devin Mesoraco – 92.1

No surprise that Ramos and Grandal are the main Statcast standouts at this position. They’ll be the two top regulars on the market, after all, with Grandal likely to rake in the bigger contract. It helps in Grandal’s case that, in addition to his offensive prowess, he’s regarded as a quality defender – gaffes in Game 1 of the NLCS aside.

First basemen:

Expected weighted on-base average

  1. Steve Pearce – .398 (real wOBA: .382)
  2. David Freese – .358 (.357)
  3. Joe Mauer – .355 (.319)
  4. Danny Valencia – .349 (.310)
  5. Logan Morrison – .339 (.284)

Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls

  1. Joe Mauer – 94.9 mph
  2. Steve Pearce – 94.7
  3. Matt Adams – 94.6
  4. Danny Valencia and Logan Morrison – 94.5
  5. Hanley Ramirez – 94.2

If a team’s looking for a full-time starting first baseman in free agency, it’s probably not going to find one. But at least a couple of the above hitters – namely, Pearce and Freese (if the Dodgers decline his $6MM club option, which is far from certain) – could once again serve as eminently useful part-timers in 2019. Mauer might have had a much better year than his league-average production indicates, meanwhile, though the 35-year-old Twins icon may call it a career in lieu of pursuing another contract.

Second basemen:

Expected weighted on-base average

  1. Daniel Murphy – .345 (real wOBA: .338)
  2. Daniel Descalso – .333 (.341); Neil Walker – .333 (.292)
  3. Jed Lowrie – .332 (.348)
  4. DJ LeMahieu – .325 (.323)
  5. Marwin Gonzalez – .320 (.318)

Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls

  1. Asdrubal Cabrera – 93.5 mph
  2. Marwin Gonzalez – 93.4
  3. DJ LeMahieu – 93.2
  4. Neil Walker – 92.4
  5. Daniel Descalso 92.3

The second base market is loaded with familiar names, but the majority of those players are fresh off underwhelming offensive seasons in terms of actual production. The above Statcast numbers aren’t exactly excellent, either, but Walker looks like a player who could serve as an interesting buy-low candidate over the winter. Walker went without a contract until last March, putting him behind the 8-ball immediately and helping lead to a brutal start with the Yankees. He settled in at the plate as the year went on, however, and ended up seeing quite a bit of time at four positions (second, first, third and right field).

Shortstops:

Expected weighted on-base average

  1. Manny Machado – .371 (real wOBA: .377)
  2. Asdrubal Cabrera – .322 (.332)
  3. Marwin Gonzalez – .320 (.318)
  4. Eduardo Escobar – .319 (.346)
  5. Jordy Mercer – .314 (.297)

Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls

  1. Manny Machado – 95.1 mph
  2. Marwin Gonzalez – 93.4
  3. Freddy Galvis – 91.8
  4. Eduardo Escobar – 90.8
  5. Jordy Mercer – 90.7

Perhaps you’ve heard of the 26-year-old Machado, who’s weeks from signing one of the richest deals in the history of the game. He packs a wallop at the plate, as Statcast helps illustrate. Other than Machado, Escobar and Gonzalez – who didn’t have a great offensive season but is a switch-hitter capable of playing a few positions –  free agency’s not brimming with appealing shortstop options. Of course, that’s assuming the Rangers’ Elvis Andrus doesn’t opt out of the remaining four years and $58MM on his contract.

Third basemen:

Expected weighted on-base average

  1. Manny Machado – .371 (real wOBA: .377)
  2. David Freese – .358 (.357)
  3. Mike Moustakas – .339 (.329)
  4. Josh Donaldson – .333 (.345)
  5. Adrian Beltre – .329 (.327)

Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls

  1. Josh Donaldson – 96.3 mph
  2. Manny Machado – 95.1
  3. Pablo Sandoval – 94.3
  4. Asdrubal Cabrera – 93.5
  5. Marwin Gonzalez – 93.4

Even during an injury-limited season, one which nearly destroyed his trade value and won’t do him any favors in free agency, Donaldson was a notable threat the plate. The 32-year-old still packs a punch – as does the oft-maligned Sandoval (also 32), apparently.

Outfielders:

Expected weighted on-base average

  1. Bryce Harper – .386 (real wOBA: .376)
  2. Michael Brantley – .362 (.359)
  3. Andrew McCutchen – .355 (.347)
  4. Nick Markakis – .348 (.345)
  5. Curtis Granderson – .341 (.342)

Average exit velocity on line drives/fly balls

  1. Bryce Harper – 96.3 mph
  2. Jose Bautista – 95.3
  3. Andrew McCutchen – 94.1
  4. Marwin Gonzalez – 93.4
  5. Matt Joyce – 92.8

The soon-to-be 26-year-old Harper will join Machado during the offseason in signing a historic contract. Unsurprisingly, Harper finished top two among all pending free agents in each of the categories we’re using here. For teams that can’t afford him, there will be some established, offensively capable corner outfielders available, as seen above. No one from that group is an ideal center field option, though, and there won’t be many available in free agency. The obvious exception is the Diamondbacks’ A.J. Pollock, who recorded a .326 xwOBA (compared to a .338 real-life mark) and a 93.7 mph average exit velocity on liners and fly balls in 2018. He also posted six Outs Above Average as a defender, per Statcast, making him the best soon-to-be free-agent outfielder in that metric’s view. By the way, Harper (minus-12) and McCutchen (minus-11) were each in the bottom six among all outfielders in OAA in 2018.

Finally, for teams in the market for a pure designated hitter, we’d be remiss not to mention Nelson Cruz. Despite his age (38), Cruz is still a superb offensive player. He placed seventh in the majors in xwOBA (.394, easily beating out his real mark of .361) and in a 13th-place tie with NL MVP hopeful Christian Yelich in average exit velo on liners/fly balls (97.2 mph).

Poll: Will The Yankees Sign Manny Machado?

By | at

This has been the week from hell for the Yankees, whose season ended Tuesday at the hands of the hated Red Sox in the American League Division Series. Boston summarily disposed of the Yankees in four games, further cementing itself as the superior team in 2018 after it won the AL East with ease in the regular season, finishing with a 108-54 record to New York’s 100-62 mark. To make matters worse, the Yankees learned Friday that they’ll play a large portion of 2019 without one of their most valuable players, shortstop Didi Gregorius, who needs Tommy John surgery on his right (throwing) elbow. Only two of the Yankees’ position players posted a higher fWAR this year than Gregorius, who recorded a 4.6 mark in 569 plate appearances to rank eighth among big league shortstops.

Now, with the Red Sox potentially on their way to a fourth World Series title since 2004 and the Yankees having been dealt a brutal blow well before 2019 begins, the question is: How will the Evil Empire strike back? Well, if the Yankees plan to go big-game hunting in free agency – as they’ve done on many occasions – perhaps they’ll respond by signing the Dodgers’ Manny Machado. The four-time All-Star infielder, 26, is set to hit the open market, where he’s sure to become one of the highest-paid players in the history of the sport.

Even with a healthy Gregorius, New York would’ve been a speculated suitor for Machado, whom it chased at this past summer’s trade deadline before the AL East rival Orioles dealt him to the Dodgers. With Gregorius in the fold, Machado likely would have slotted in at third base in 2019, sending AL Rookie of the Year Candidate Miguel Andujar to first base or designated hitter. Andujar’s on the heels of a huge season offensively, but he was a butcher at third, finishing last among major league infielders in both Defensive Runs Saved (minus-25) and Ultimate Zone Rating (minus-16). Despite Andujar’s woeful season in the field, he may well remain at third next year if the Yankees add Machado, considering both Gregorius’ health and Machado’s preference to line up at short.

For the majority of his career, which began in 2012, Machado has played third, where he has been eminently successful. Machado has registered 84 Defensive Runs Saved and a 50.6 UZR at the position, while he has logged minus-10 DRS at short and a minus-6.1 UZR at shortstop, with all of the damage having come this past regular season (minus-12 DRS, minus-6.5 UZR) after he moved back to short. In spite of his defensive shortcomings, Machado served as one of the majors’ preeminent players in 2018, notching the game’s ninth-highest fWAR among position players (6.2) on the strength of his fourth straight 30-home run campaign. He’d give the Yankees’ already strong offense yet another formidable hitter, joining Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres, Gary Sanchez and Andujar, though the right-handed Machado wouldn’t provide the right-heavy lineup variety in terms of handedness.

Speaking of Torres, the Yankees may simply turn short over to him next year as they await Gregorius’ return and entrust the keystone to a far less expensive alternative to Machado. There are plenty of familiar veteran second basemen set to hit free agency in the offseason, including now-Yankee Neil Walker, though no one from the group is anywhere near the caliber of Machado.

For now, Machado and the still-alive Dodgers are focused on winning a championship, but it seems doubtful he’ll return to LA thereafter. The club has an excellent third baseman in Justin Turner and a great shortstop in Corey Seager, who missed most of 2018 on account of TJ surgery, after all. Thus, regardless of how the Dodgers’ season ends, it seems Machado’s destined to put on a new uniform in 2019. Do you expect New York to be the team that awards him one of the richest contracts in the history of baseball in the offseason, or will someone else win the much-anticipated derby?

(poll link for app users)

Will the Yankees sign Manny Machado?
No 52.15% (10,007 votes)
Yes 47.85% (9,181 votes)
Total Votes: 19,188

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

By | at

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

For the first time in franchise history, the Cubs reached the playoffs in four consecutive years.  However, a loss to the Rockies in the Wild Card game left a bitter taste in the Cubs’ mouths and the front office must make significant additions to the offense and bullpen.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Contract Options

Free Agents

[Chicago Cubs Depth Chart; Chicago Cubs Payroll Overview]

“Our offense broke somewhere along the lines,” stated Cubs president Theo Epstein the day after his team was bounced from the playoffs following a five-hour slog against the Rockies.  The Cubs didn’t even expect to be in that Wild Card game, but they lost a tiebreaker game to a surging Brewers club.  Before we attempt to guess at how Epstein might go about fixing the offense, let’s take a look at which players are locked in.

Willson Contreras will continue to handle primary catching duties.  Contreras, 27 in May, had an argument to be considered the best-hitting catcher in baseball over the period stretching from his June 2016 debut until this year’s trade deadline.  Then, from August 2nd onward, he hit .169/.263/.232 with one home run in 160 plate appearances.  He went from regularly serving as the Cubs’ #4 or 5 hitter to hitting seventh or eighth most days.  Contreras’ collapse is one damning data point for now-former Cubs hitting coach Chili Davis.  Getting Contreras back to his established 120 wRC+ level would be a big boost to the 2019 offense.  Contreras caught a career-high 1109 2/3 innings in 2018 and would likely benefit from a quality veteran backup.  After a strong season in which he made 83 starts for the Braves, free agent Kurt Suzuki might not accept a diminished role, but he’s the type of player the Cubs should target.

The team’s other big in-house offensive project is getting Kris Bryant right.  Bryant, 27 in January, had his first real setback as a pro player this year but still managed a 125 wRC+.  That’s disappointing only because he’d set his level at 144 over his first three Major League seasons, winning the NL MVP in 2016.  Bryant injured his left shoulder on a headfirst slide in late May and was never the same since.  He was limited to just 102 games this year.  Fortunately, Epstein does not expect surgery for Bryant, and in fact expects a “monster” 2019 out of him.  Given Bryant’s stature and potential, I wonder if manager Joe Maddon would be better served locking him in at third base, rather than sprinkling in time at the outfield corners as he has done to date.  Healthy, bounceback seasons from Bryant and Contreras are crucial to the Cubs’ 2019 offense.

Anthony Rizzo is the Cubs’ rock at first base and remains among the best hitters in the game at his position.  Ben Zobrist bounced back to show he’s actually not done as a hitter at age 37, and he’s an option for slightly less than full-time duty at some combination of second base and the outfield corners again.  Javier Baez catapulted himself into the NL MVP discussion with a five-win age-25 season.  Baez fits well at any infield position.  He maxed out his offensive abilities in 2018 by mashing 83 extra-base hits, making up for his perennially low walk rate.  The Cubs are also locked into near-regular playing time for Jason Heyward, because of his strong outfield defense as well as the large amount of money left on his contract.  Heyward continued to improve as a hitter in his third year as a Cub, but that still resulted in a low-power league average batting line.  The positional flexibility of Heyward, Baez, Zobrist, and others will allow the Cubs to explore both of the major prizes of the 2018-19 free agent market.

Those prizes, of course, are superstars Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.  Both free agents project to top the current largest contract in baseball history, Giancarlo Stanton’s $325MM deal.  MLBTR expects each player to reach $400MM, with an average annual value in the range of $30MM.  Can the Cubs afford to add the largest contract in baseball history to their ledger?  With a new TV deal on the horizon after 2019, the answer appears to be yes.  Given arbitration raises, the Cubs will come in around last year’s Opening Day payroll before any new players are added, so I do expect the club to jump past $200MM for the first time.  The Cubs successfully reset with a payroll under the Competitive Balance Tax threshold in 2018, reducing the tax penalty for ’19 if they exceed the new $206MM threshold.  Last March, I debated the true necessity of teams like the Cubs, Dodgers, and Yankees to reset, but all three have done it and enter the 2018-19 offseason ready to spend.

Epstein has gone big game hunting many times for both the Cubs and Red Sox, and figures to be firmly in the mix for Harper or Machado.  Which player is the better fit?  My vote is for Harper, who has a higher offensive ceiling than Machado and as a left-handed batter breaks up the Cubs’ core of right-handed hitters (Bryant, Baez, and Contreras).   Cubs fans can salivate at the prospect of a Murderer’s Row of Bryant, Harper, Baez, Rizzo, and Contreras.  Harper would take over as the team’s regular right fielder, pushing Heyward to center and possibly a young outfielder off the roster, which we’ll discuss later.

The possibility the Cubs prefer Machado should not be discounted.  Fans can also dream on a Machado-Baez middle infield combination, although Baez may actually be the superior shortstop.  Signing Machado seems to create an inefficiency – pushing Baez back to second, or pushing Bryant to left field.  That is, unless Machado is willing to sign under the same conditions most current Cubs position players have, where all but Rizzo, Contreras, and Albert Almora bounce around to multiple positions.  I think the Cubs are better-served with Harper in right field and a Heyward-Almora platoon in center.

Almora might be wasted on the short side of a platoon, however, and the Cubs will likely consider trading him under certain scenarios.  Likewise, Kyle Schwarber and Ian Happ face the possibility of a trade, particularly if the Cubs acquire a starting outfielder.  Schwarber, 26 in March, quieted the talk of his left field defense as a liability.  However, he proved powerless against left-handed pitching and was limited to seeing southpaws only 18% of the time under Maddon.  There could be another gear for Schwarber if he starts hitting lefties, but as always, Maddon is reluctant to give him that full opportunity on a contending club.

Happ, a 24-year-old switch-hitter, played all three outfield positions and third base this year.  Strikeouts were up and power was down in his sophomore season, and he too was unable to hit lefties.  Though he’s technically more versatile than Schwarber, Happ seems position-less.  He spent more time in center field than any other position (403 2/3 innings) despite being the team’s third-best center fielder.  The Cubs limited his time in the infield this year.  Schwarber is arbitration eligible for the first time this winter and is controlled for three more seasons; Happ remains near the league minimum and is controlled for five more seasons.  It’s simpler retaining Schwarber: keep him in left field, try to unlock his power against left-handed pitching, and he might yet become a middle of the order hitter.  Trading Happ is risky, though, given the five remaining years of team control.

Harper and Machado are certainly not the Cubs’ only options for outside additions.  They’re just the best ones.  Free agent bats like Nelson Cruz, Andrew McCutchen, A.J. Pollock, Michael Brantley, Jed Lowrie, Wilson Ramos, and Yasmani Grandal don’t clearly make the Cubs better or fit onto their roster.  The trade market doesn’t appear to boast a superstar, either, unless you think the Cubs could pry Nolan Arenado loose from the Rockies for his final year before free agency.

Cubs shortstop Addison Russell received a 40-game suspension for violating MLB’s domestic violence policy based on claims from his ex-wife, and he will be ineligible to play until May 3rd next year.  Asked if Russell will return to the Cubs next year, Epstein replied, “I don’t know.  With all of our words and actions going forward, whether we know it or not, we’re sending messages to our fans.”  The Cubs don’t have the moral high ground when it comes to domestic violence, having traded for Aroldis Chapman in 2016 about ten months after that pitcher’s incident.  In this case, which unlike that one is post-“Me Too,” the PR move probably coincides with the baseball move, and most expect the Cubs to let Russell go.  We’ll likely learn next month whether Russell is too toxic to trade to another team, but I would guess not.

Moving on, let’s discuss the Cubs’ starting rotation.  Lester, Hendricks, and Quintana are locked in.  Yu Darvish’s first year was a disaster, with the pitcher making only eight MLB starts due to a parainfluenza virus, triceps tendinitis/inflammation, a shoulder impingement, and a stress reaction in his elbow.  He had seemingly minor elbow surgery in September and is expected to be ready for Spring Training.  Given his salary and past success, Darvish will have a spot in the Cubs’ rotation whenever he’s ready.  The Cubs also have Drew Smyly under contract.  Smyly, a 29-year-old southpaw, underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2017 and signed a two-year deal with the Cubs last December.  He’ll be 18 months removed from the procedure when pitchers and catchers report in February and could be an asset given his past success with the Tigers and Rays.

While the Cubs will be cautiously optimistic on Darvish and Smyly for 2019, there is no such optimism for Tyler Chatwood.  The Cubs gave Chatwood a three-year, $38MM deal last December based mostly on upside, and the righty’s already-poor control became the worst in baseball in 2018.  In fact, Chatwood’s 19.6% walk rate was the fifth-worst in baseball history for pitchers with at least 100 innings.  The Cubs’ 2018 season served as a reminder how much every win counts, and I can’t see how Chatwood would have a role on the 2019 Cubs.  Russell Martin could make for an excellent bad contract swap from the Cubs’ side, though not so much from Toronto’s.  Alex Gordon, Zack Cozart, Homer Bailey, and Martin Prado could be other potential targets in my estimation.

Though the Cubs also have Mike Montgomery as a back-end rotation depth option, there’s more than enough uncertainty to justify picking up Cole Hamels’ $20MM option.  Hamels, 35 in December, was excellent in a dozen starts for the Cubs after a July trade from Texas.  The Cubs could also attempt to negotiate a two-year deal with Hamels at a lower average annual value.

Aside from the offense, the Cubs’ other big problem is a lack of bullpen depth.  In a world where teams are giving half their innings to relievers in the playoffs, the Cubs would have had a difficult time making a sustained postseason run even if they had beaten the Rockies.  Brandon Morrow’s season ended on July 15th due to biceps inflammation, even though the injury was initially thought to be on the minor side.  Given the 34-year-old’s extensive injury history, this couldn’t have been a shock for the Cubs.  Morrow was excellent when he was healthy, and he’ll be delicately deployed in the late innings in 2019.  The Cubs have Steve Cishek under contract and will pick up their option on Pedro Strop, making for a decent right-handed trio.  Beyond that, I expect multiple external additions and a good amount of turnover.  The Cubs do control Montgomery, Carl Edwards Jr., and Randy Rosario.  They have Duensing under contract after a terrible year, and should expect Brandon Kintzler to pick up his $5MM player option after his rough stint on the North Side.

Edwards is a tantalizing, frustrating talent, and the Cubs have to wonder whether he’ll ever be a reliable late inning option for them.  From the left side, the Cubs can do better than Montgomery, Rosario, and Duensing.  The club will have to be prepared to release Duensing and/or Kintzler if those veterans fail to impress in Spring Training.  Bottom line: it’s time to turn over at least half the bullpen.  I don’t expect the Cubs to make a run at Craig Kimbrel, but the free agent market still offers a long list of options, including Adam Ottavino, Jeurys Familia, David Robertson, Andrew Miller, Joakim Soria, Cody Allen, Zach Britton, and a pair of rehabbing former closers (Kelvin Herrera & Trevor Rosenthal).  One veteran worth retaining is Jesse Chavez, who ascended to the top of the Cubs’ decimated bullpen by year’s end and reportedly wants to return.

The Cubs also have a bit of managerial drama, with Joe Maddon entering lame duck status in 2019.  Epstein said all the right things about Maddon after the season, but there’s still a feeling that Maddon’s tenure in Chicago is nearing an end.  My guess is that short of a 2019 World Championship, Maddon departs after the season.

Though most MLBTR readers graded the Cubs’ 2017-18 offseason an A or a B at the time, the first year results of those deals were quite poor.  The stakes might be higher this time around.  Now that expectations are sky-high, this year’s early playoff exit must be considered a disappointment.  The money involved could be bigger than ever and Epstein will be making decisions that have a large impact on whether his team can pull off another World Championship inside the three years of control remaining for Bryant, Rizzo, and Baez.

2018-19 Market Snapshot: Shortstop

By | at

This is the latest installment in our Market Snapshot series. We’re crossing to the left side of the infield after recently running through the many options at second.

Teams In Need

The most obvious potential buyers at the shortstop position are the Phillies and Brewers. Both of these National League contenders have former top prospects available at the position, but thus far they haven’t really panned out.

There’s a clear opening at the position for the Padres and Tigers, but it’s far from evident that either team will make a significant acquisition. For the San Diego organization, it wouldn’t be surprising if they seek another gap-filler while waiting for top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. to finish his development. In Detroit, there’s perhaps an argument to be made for opportunism, especially if the club finds a chance to pick up a relatively youthful player for an appealing price tag.

It’s at least be arguable that the Diamondbacks ought to look to improve at shortstop (or, alternatively, second base), but that may not prove worthwhile if the organization decides on a sell-off. Likewise, the Marlins and Orioles could certainly stand to improve at the position but no doubt won’t be aggressively paying for near-term improvement.

The Yankees will at least need to bolster their depth to open the season following the announcement of Tommy John surgery for Didi Gregorius. Whether that opens the door for a bigger move remains to be seen. Corey Seager will have had much more time to recover from his own TJS, so there’s not much reason to think the Dodgers have a real need at the position.

Though the White Sox got improved glovework from Tim Anderson, and are committed to him through an extension, perhaps there’s still room for a move there. There’s greater cause to seek improvement in Oakland, given the team’s competitive outlook, though there’s less of a case for bumping Marcus Semien after a solid overall campaign driven by his own strides on defense. Teams like the Braves and Pirates have existing options but perhaps shouldn’t be ruled out entirely from the market.

Free Agents

Likely Regulars: Manny Machado is obviously the prize on the infield market this winter. It remains to be seen whether he’ll insist on playing short — and, if so, how that’ll impact demand. On the off chance that Elvis Andrus opts out of his deal with the Rangers, he’d surely be able to secure a regular job even in spite of a tough season. Otherwise, it’s difficult to see any other market entrants as truly everyday players in 2019.

Timeshare/Utility/Reserve Options: That’s not to say that there aren’t some other free agents who have been regulars in the not-so-distant past. Jordy Mercer, Jose Iglesias, Freddy Galvis, and even Alcides Escobar have racked up quite a few plate appearances in recent seasons. It wouldn’t be terribly surprising for one or more of those glove-first players to see action in 120+ games in 2019, though that’ll likely occur with a second-division club. A slate of other players — Asdrubal Cabrera, Eduardo Escobar, Marwin Gonzalez, and Jed Lowrie — will reach the open market with much more impressive hitting resumes. In each case, though, it would rate as a surprise if they were tasked primarily with playing short rather than other spots on the infield.

Depth/Bounceback Options: Pete Kozma, Dixon Machado, Cliff Pennington, Jose Reyes, Eric Sogard

Trade Targets

The Blue Jays have an interesting mix of solid/youthful (Aledmys Diaz, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Richard Urena), injury-plagued/aging (Troy Tulowitzki), and fast-rising/unproven (Bo Bichette) options on hand. Whether they’ll choose to deal from this group, which could also fan out across the Toronto infield and farm system, remains to be seen. The Phillies could elect to part with J.P. Crawford or Scott Kingery, depending upon how they tackle an interesting upcoming offseason. There’s also some potential extra depth in Texas, though the Andrus contract (4/$58MM with opt-out) isn’t a positive-value asset and the Rangers have plenty of ways to find playing time for Jurickson Profar.

Meanwhile, the Cubs have yet to figure out what to do with Addison Russell, who’ll sit out the first month or so of the 2019 season owing to a suspension under the league’s domestic violence policy. He’s projected to earn $4.3MM and is coming off of his worst season at the plate. If the Chicago organization decides it’s time to move on, other clubs that like Russell as a player will have to contemplate his suspension as well as the allegations of emotional and physical abuse that led to it.

2018-19 Market Snapshot: Second Base

By | at

This is the third installment in our Market Snapshot series. Previously, we covered the catching market and the first base market. Next up, we’ll take a look at second base.

Teams In Need

The Athletics could see Jed Lowrie hit the open market, though there’s been talk of an extension. If he’s not re-signed, the A’s have Franklin Barreto in Triple-A. Similarly, the Rockies could lose DJ LeMahieu but have prospects Brendan Rodgers and Garrett Hampson in the upper minors.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, will lose Chase Utley to retirement while Brian Dozier reaches free agency. One of the game’s great curators of depth, the Dodgers organization isn’t hurting for replacement options with Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez and Max Muncy on hand.

The Twins sent Dozier to L.A. and replaced him with Logan Forsythe, who’s also a free agent. Top prospect Nick Gordon could pair with Jorge Polanco up the middle, but Gordon has yet to hit in Triple-A. The Nationals shipped out Daniel Murphy and received little from Wilmer Difo following that swap. The Pirates, too, could be in need if Josh Harrison’s option is bought out.

It’s possible that the Cardinals could enter the mix for an offensive boost if they decide to move on from Kolten Wong’s glove-first approach. Perhaps the Angels feel set with David Fletcher, but they may want a more impactful bat. The rebuilding Tigers don’t have an established option but could give prospect Dawel Lugo an audition. And if the Indians can jettison Jason Kipnis’ contract, they could seek help at the keystone, too (moving Jose Ramirez back to third base).

Free Agents

Potential Regulars: DJ LeMahieu, Jed Lowrie, Brian Dozier, Daniel Murphy, Ian Kinsler

Lowrie is coming off his best season but has been open about his desire to remain with the A’s. He may never reach the market, and even if he does, Oakland will try to retain him. LeMahieu has carved out a nice spot as a high-average hitter with quality glovework but minimal power. Dozier was the game’s most powerful second baseman by a landslide from 2015-17 but played through a knee injury in 2018 and had his worst full season since 2013. Murphy started slow in his return from knee surgery but hit .322/.358/.502 in his final 293 PAs. Kinsler will be 37 next June, but he’s still an elite defender even as his bat continues to decline.

Timeshare/Utility/Reserve Options: Josh Harrison, Logan Forsythe, Daniel Descalso, Asdrubal Cabrera, Neil Walker

Harrison had the worst full season of his career, so the cost-conscious Pirates may simply buy out his option. He can play at least three positions, though, and was a quality regular as recently as 2017. Forsythe’s 2018 season was a nightmare, but he’s spent much of his career giving left-handed pitchers fits. He can play either second or third and hit much better following a July trade to Minnesota. Descalso quietly had his best season at the plate and is capable of playing all over the diamond. He’ll be 32 next season but makes for a potential utility piece. Switch-hitters Cabrera and Walker (.249/.349/.438 from July 1 through season’s end) can still provide some value at the plate, but their defensive abilities are more in question.

Depth: Dixon Machado, Gordon Beckham, Ryan Goins, Eric Sogard, Sean Rodriguez, Brad Miller, Andrew Romine

Trade Targets

Potential Regulars: Whit Merrifield, Scooter Gennett, Starlin Castro, Kolten Wong, Ketel Marte, Cesar Hernandez, Joe Panik, Jason Kipnis, Devon Travis

The late-blooming Merrifield has established himself as one of baseball’s premier second basemen over the past two seasons. He’s controlled another four years, making him a premium trade chip who could fetch some MLB-ready pieces, as GM Dayton Moore has targeted in other deals. Gennett, too, has broken out over the past two years, though he’s only controlled for one more season. A Cincinnati native, Gennett hopes to stay with the Reds, and the feeling seems mutual. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $10.7MM through arbitration, but an extension is possible.

Castro (one year, $12MM plus a 2020 option) had another solid season but is somewhat expensive relative to his potentially available peers. Wong (2/$17.25MM plus 2021 option) was one of baseball’s premier defenders in 2018 (19 Defensive Runs Saved, 13.4 Ultimate Zone Rating) but has persistently been in trade rumors for the past couple seasons. Marte, 25 tomorrow, isn’t a star but provided average offense and solid defense in ’18 and comes with cost certainty (4/$19MM remaining plus two club options).

The Phillies are reportedly willing to deal anyone other than Rhys Hoskins and Aaron Nola, and the 28-year-old Hernandez is a steady hitter controlled through 2020. He’s due a raise in arbitration ($8.9MM projection). Also arb-eligible for two more years ($4.2MM projection for ’19), Panik had a career-worst season and could be a change-of-scenery candidate depending on the views of the new Giants GM.

Cleveland would presumably love to shed the remaining year and $17MM on Kipnis’ deal (he also has an option for 2020) as the organization faces payroll constraints and has numerous holes to fill. Given his .230/.315/.389 slash, though, Kipnis would be tough to move.

It’s worth wondering if the Jays would move on from the injury-prone Travis. He’s controlled for another two seasons ($2.4MM arb projection), but the Jays have alternatives, including Lourdes Gurriel Jr. in the bigs and top prospect Bo Bichette looming.

Timeshare/Utility/Reserve Options: Yangervis Solarte, Derek Dietrich, Cory Spangenberg, Carlos Asuaje, Jose Pirela, Tyler Wade, Alen Hanson, Dilson Herrera

Solarte had an awful first season with the Jays but was a steadily productive player with the Padres, so perhaps a team would dub his $5.5MM option a worthy gamble. Dietrich, a perennial trade candidate like many Marlins, is a solid hitter with no real defensive home. He’s controlled through 2020 and projected at $4.8MM in 2019.

The Padres have three potential trade pieces now that top prospect Luis Urias is ready for a big league look. None of Spangenberg, Asuaje or Pirela hit in the Majors in 2018, though. Asuaje is the youngest of the bunch and has another five seasons of control, perhaps making him the most desirable. It’s a similar tale for Wade with the Yankees; the 24-year-old has hit in Triple-A but is a ways down the depth chart and has yet to produce in the Majors.

Hanson and Herrera are former Top 100 prospects who’ve yet to perform in the Majors. Hanson did show surprising pop against righties with the Giants, but his lack of plate discipline held him to a .275 OBP. Herrera returned from shoulder woes with a strong Triple-A season, but he didn’t hit in 97 MLB plate appearances down the stretch and would be blocked if the Reds extend Gennett.

2018-19 Market Snapshot: First Base

By | at

This is the second installment in our Market Snapshot series. Previously, we covered the catching market. Today, we’ll turn to the first base position.

Teams In Need

Quite a few organizations went without regulars at the first base position in 2018, seemingly content with timeshare situations. That could again be the case, though it’s also possible that a few tantalizing trade targets might lead to a re-thinking on the part of some clubs.

Among likely contenders, only the Rockies jump off the page with an opening — assuming, at least, that they will move Ian Desmond to an outfield or utility role of some kind. Teams like the Mariners and Twins could arguably stand to add at the position, but also might address it by shuffling existing players.

Of course, others could free up space if they see an opportunity to improve. The Yankees, for instance, will have to decide how much they wish to rely upon Luke Voit (while also considering how their DH and catching situations will play out). The Red Sox, Nationals, and Angels are among the clubs that’ll at least be looking for complementary pieces capable of spending some time in the first base mix.

Free Agents

Likely Regulars: Frankly, there don’t appear to be any in this group — making the trade candidates listed below all the more tantalizing.

Top Timeshare/Reserve Options: Steve Pearce has hit a ton in 2018 and deserves a significant role, though he has long been dogged by heath questions. Mark Reynolds proved he can still do damage, while Hanley Ramirez is a wild card. On the left side of the plate, a trio of veterans returns to the open market. Matt Adams collapsed down the stretch but was productive earlier in the year; Lucas Duda did the opposite; Logan Morrison will be looking for a bounceback chance after an injury-plagued campaign. It seems unlikely that Joe Mauer will play anywhere other than Minnesota, but perhaps that can’t be ruled out entirely.

Depth: Pedro Alvarez, Adam Lind, Danny Valencia

Trade Targets

Likely Regulars: The most intriguing name that could be on the market has to be Paul Goldschmidt (1/$14.5MM). It stands to reason that the D-Backs will put him on the block early, seeing whether offers reach a sufficient level to make a move. Another player entering his final year of team control, Jose Abreu of the White Sox ($16MM projected), is perhaps still as much an extension as a trade candidate. Switch-hitter Justin Smoak sustained the better part of his 2017 outbreak this year and will earn a reasonable $8MM in the final season of his contract (his club option value was boosted by escalators). Trading him could offer the Blue Jays a chance to pick up some young talent while clearing the deck for existing young players to get some chances at the MLB level.

There are also some larger contracts worth considering. Wil Myers arguably doesn’t fit the roster puzzle for the Padres, though his deal (4/$64MM plus option) is just about to ramp up in cost. Though the Giants’ remaining obligations to Brandon Belt (3/$48MM) outstrip his present value — particularly after another season in which he missed time and didn’t hit to his typical levels — he’d still represent an interesting target for some clubs, potentially opening the door to some off-the-wall trade concepts. Speaking of which, the Phillies could seek to bail on Carlos Santana (2/$35MM plus option), depending upon how untold other possibilities play out, though they likely won’t find a terribly receptive market. And while an offseason trade remains hard to fathom, it’s still worth remembering that the Tigers could try to move some of their remaining obligations to Miguel Cabrera (5/$162MM plus options) at some point.

Top Timeshare/Reserve Options: Despite a strong year at the plate and still-palatable salary, C.J. Cron ($5.2MM projected) seems not to be in the Rays’ plans following the acquisition of Ji-Man Choi. Jose Martinez of the Cardinals (pre-arb) is another quality righty bat that might hold appeal, though his struggles to handle first base defensively may make him a DH-only target.

Teams considering lefty sluggers could take a look at the Phillies’ Justin Bour ($5.2MM projected) or Brewers’ Eric Thames (1/$7MM plus option), depending upon how those organizations proceed. Greg Bird of the Yankees ($1.5MM projected), Dominic Smith of the Mets (pre-arb), and AJ Reed of the Astros (pre-arb) could represent upside plays for the right team if their current orgs decide it’s time to move on.

Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2019

By | at

As explained here, Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors have developed an accurate model to project arbitration salaries. This is the eighth year we’ve done these projections, and I’m proud to present the results for 2019. Official service time is in parentheses next to each player.  The Super Two cutoff has been announced as 2.134.

Angels (8)

  • Tyler Skaggs (4.135) – $3.6MM
  • Andrew Heaney (3.150) – $2.8MM
  • JC Ramirez (3.139) – $1.9MM
  • Luis Garcia (4.006) – $1.7MM
  • Cam Bedrosian (3.153) – $1.7MM
  • Nick Tropeano (3.068) – $1.6MM
  • Hansel Robles (3.119) – $1.4MM
  • Tommy La Stella (4.057) – $1.2MM

Astros (10)

  • Gerrit Cole (5.111) – $13.1MM
  • Roberto Osuna (3.097) – $6.5MM
  • Collin McHugh (5.085) – $5.4MM
  • Carlos Correa (3.119) – $5.1MM
  • Lance McCullers (3.140) – $4.6MM
  • Will Harris (5.102) – $3.6MM
  • Ryan Pressly (5.039) – $3.1MM
  • Brad Peacock (4.165) – $2.9MM
  • Jake Marisnick (4.132) – $2.4MM
  • Chris Devenski (3.000) – $1.4MM

Athletics (9)

  • Khris Davis (5.104) – $18.1MM
  • Marcus Semien (4.118) – $6.6MM
  • Blake Treinen (4.065) – $5.8MM
  • Sean Manaea (2.157) – $3.8MM
  • Liam Hendriks (4.164) – $2.1MM – signed for $2.15MM
  • Mark Canha (3.092) – $2.1MM
  • Ryan Buchter (3.010) – $1.3MM
  • Josh Phegley (4.087) – $1.2MM – signed for $1.075MM
  • Ryan Dull (2.143) – $900K – signed for $860K

Blue Jays (9)

  • Marcus Stroman (4.148) – $7.2MM
  • Ken Giles (4.113) – $6.6MM
  • Kevin Pillar (4.113) – $5.3MM
  • Randal Grichuk (4.033) – $4.8MM
  • Aaron Sanchez (4.069) – $3.8MM
  • Devon Travis (3.163) – $2.4MM
  • Ryan Tepera (3.008) – $1.7MM
  • Brandon Drury (2.165) – $1.4MM
  • Joe Biagini (2.134) – $1.0MM

Braves (8)

  • Kevin Gausman (4.151) – $9.2MM
  • Mike Foltynewicz (3.163) – $5.5MM
  • Arodys Vizcaino (5.168) – $4.8MM
  • Adam Duvall (3.096) – $3.1MM
  • Dan Winkler (4.000) – $1.6MM
  • Jonny Venters (5.159) – $1.5MM – signed for $2.25MM
  • Sam Freeman (4.066) – $1.5MM
  • Charlie Culberson (3.084) – $1.4MM

Brewers (10)

  • Travis Shaw (3.088) – $5.1MM
  • Corey Knebel (3.151) – $4.9MM
  • Jimmy Nelson (4.107) – $3.7MM
  • Hernan Perez (4.079) – $2.7MM – signed for $2.5MM
  • Junior Guerra (2.155) – $2.7MM
  • Zach Davies (3.020) – $2.4MM
  • Domingo Santana (3.024) – $2.0MM
  • Manny Piña (3.046) – $1.8MM
  • Erik Kratz (4.156) – $1.7MM – signed for $1.2MM
  • Tyler Saladino (3.053) – $1.0MM – signed for $887.5K

Cardinals (4)

  • Marcell Ozuna (5.124) – $13.4MM
  • Michael Wacha (5.062) – $6.6MM
  • Dominic Leone (3.123) – $1.3MM
  • Chasen Shreve (3.167) – $1.2MM – signed for $900K

Cubs (7)

  • Kris Bryant (3.171) – $12.4MM
  • Kyle Hendricks (4.081) – $7.6MM
  • Javier Baez (3.089) – $7.1MM
  • Addison Russell (3.167) – $4.3MM
  • Kyle Schwarber (3.086) – $3.1MM
  • Mike Montgomery (3.089) – $3.0MM
  • Carl Edwards Jr. (2.134) – $1.4MM

Diamondbacks (11)

  • David Peralta (4.120) – $7.7MM
  • Robbie Ray (4.007) – $6.1MM
  • Taijuan Walker (4.142) – $4.825MM
  • Jake Lamb (4.053) – $4.7MM
  • Steven Souza Jr. (4.072) – $4.0MM
  • Nick Ahmed (4.054) – $3.1MM
  • Archie Bradley (3.112) – $2.0MM
  • Andrew Chafin (4.020) – $1.8MM
  • T.J. McFarland (4.164) – $1.4MM
  • Matt Andriese (3.071) – $1.1MM
  • John Ryan Murphy (3.043) – $1.1MM

Dodgers (10)

  • Joc Pederson (4.028) – $4.3MM
  • Enrique Hernandez (4.054) – $3.2MM
  • Chris Taylor (3.037) – $3.2MM
  • Josh Fields (5.083) – $2.8MM
  • Tony Cingrani (5.088) – $2.7MM – signed for $2.65MM
  • Corey Seager (3.032) – $2.6MM
  • Pedro Baez (4.059) – $1.8MM
  • Yimi Garcia (3.149) – $900K

Giants (3)

Indians (7)

Mariners (1)

  • Roenis Elias (3.069) – $1.0MM

Marlins (5)

  • J.T. Realmuto (4.038) – $6.1MM
  • Dan Straily (4.126) – $4.8MM
  • Jose Urena (3.040) – $3.6MM
  • Miguel Rojas (4.043) – $2.6MM
  • Adam Conley (2.147) – $1.3MM

Mets (7)

  • Jacob deGrom (4.139) – $12.9MM
  • Noah Syndergaard (3.149) – $5.9MM
  • Zack Wheeler (5.098) – $5.3MM
  • Michael Conforto (3.043) – $4.4MM
  • Travis d’Arnaud (5.044) – $3.7MM
  • Steven Matz (3.099) – $3.0MM
  • Kevin Plawecki (2.167) – $1.3MM

Nationals (7)

  • Anthony Rendon (5.130) – $17.6MM
  • Tanner Roark (5.055) – $9.8MM
  • Trea Turner (2.135) – $5.3MM
  • Michael Taylor (4.010) – $3.2MM
  • Kyle Barraclough (3.059) – $1.9MM
  • Joe Ross (3.067) – $1.5MM
  • Sammy Solis (3.061) – $900K – signed for $850K

Orioles (3)

  • Jonathan Villar (4.113) – $4.4MM
  • Dylan Bundy (3.026) – $3.0MM
  • Mychal Givens (3.069) – $2.0MM

Padres (6)

  • Kirby Yates (4.021) – $3.0MM
  • Austin Hedges (2.166) – $1.8MM
  • Travis Jankowski (2.169) – $1.4MM
  • Bryan Mitchell (3.049) – $1.2MM – signed for $900K
  • Robbie Erlin (4.078) – $1.1MM
  • Greg Garcia (3.083) – $900K – signed for $910K

Phillies (9)

  • Cesar Hernandez (4.154) – $8.9MM
  • Aaron Nola (3.076) – $6.6MM
  • Maikel Franco (3.170) – $5.1MM
  • Vince Velasquez (3.086) – $2.6MM
  • Hector Neris (3.068) – $2.0MM
  • Jose Alvarez (4.035) – $1.7MM
  • Jerad Eickhoff (3.045) – $1.7MM
  • Aaron Altherr (3.028) – $1.6MM
  • Adam Morgan (3.017) – $1.1MM

Pirates (3)

  • Corey Dickerson (5.101) – $8.4MM
  • Keone Kela (4.000) – $3.2MM
  • Michael Feliz (3.026) – $900K – signed for $850K

Rangers (4)

  • Nomar Mazara (3.000) – $3.7MM
  • Jurickson Profar (4.165) – $3.4MM
  • Delino DeShields Jr. (3.116) – $1.9MM
  • Alex Claudio (3.114) – $1.3MM

Rays (4)

  • Mike Zunino (4.165) – $4.2MM
  • Tommy Pham (3.107) – $4.0MM
  • Matt Duffy (4.059) – $2.6MM
  • Chaz Roe (3.094) – $1.4MM

Red Sox (12)

  • Mookie Betts (4.070) – $18.7MM
  • Xander Bogaerts (5.042) – $11.9MM
  • Jackie Bradley Jr. (4.150) – $7.9MM
  • Eduardo Rodriguez (3.130) – $4.8MM
  • Brock Holt (5.052) – $3.4MM
  • Tyler Thornburg (5.057) – $2.3MM – signed for $1.75MM
  • Sandy Leon (4.149) – $2.3MM
  • Matt Barnes (3.110) – $1.5MM
  • Brandon Workman (4.051) – $1.4MM
  • Steven Wright (4.087) – $1.4MM
  • Heath Hembree (3.106) – $1.2MM
  • Blake Swihart (2.164) –  $1.1MM

Reds (5)

  • Yasiel Puig (5.102) – $11.3MM
  • Scooter Gennett (5.071) – $10.7MM
  • Alex Wood (5.123) – $9.0MM
  • Jose Peraza (2.141) – $3.6MM
  • Anthony Desclafani (4.062) – $2.1MM
  • Michael Lorenzen (3.159) – $1.9MM
  • Curt Casali (2.151) – $1.3MM

Rockies (8)

  • Nolan Arenado (5.155) – $26.1MM
  • Trevor Story (3.000) – $6.4MM
  • Chad Bettis (4.096) – $3.2MM
  • Jon Gray (3.062) – $3.2MM
  • Tyler Anderson (3.065) – $2.9MM
  • Chris Rusin (4.092) – $1.7MM – signed for $1.6875MM
  • Scott Oberg (3.063) – $1.2MM
  • Tony Wolters (2.161) – $1.1MM

Royals (3)

Tigers (6)

  • Nicholas Castellanos (5.029) – $11.3MM
  • Shane Greene (4.075) – $4.8MM
  • Michael Fulmer (2.157) – $3.0MM
  • Matthew Boyd (2.136) – $3.0MM
  • Daniel Norris (3.073)  -$1.4MM
  • Blaine Hardy (3.108) – $1.2MM

Twins (10)

  • Jake Odorizzi (5.042) – $9.4MM
  • Kyle Gibson (5.039) – $7.9MM
  • C.J. Cron (4.097) – $5.2MM – signed for $4.8MM
  • Eddie Rosario (3.120) – $5.0MM
  • Max Kepler (2.152) – $3.2MM
  • Miguel Sano (3.066) – $3.1MM
  • Ehire Adrianza (4.131) – $1.8MM – signed for $1.3MM
  • Taylor Rogers (2.145) – $1.6MM
  • Byron Buxton (2.160) – $1.2MM
  • Trevor May (4.012) – $1.1MM

White Sox (5)

  • Jose Abreu (5.000) – $16MM
  • Alex Colome (4.118) – $7.3MM
  • Yolmer Sanchez (3.134) – $4.7MM
  • Carlos Rodon (3.168) – $3.7MM
  • Leury Garcia (4.025) – $1.9MM – signed for $1.55MM

Yankees (9)

  • Didi Gregorius (5.159) – $12.4MM
  • Sonny Gray (5.061) – $9.1MM
  • Dellin Betances (5.078) – $6.4MM
  • Aaron Hicks (5.041) – $6.2MM
  • James Paxton (4.151) – $9.0MM
  • Luis Severino (2.170) – $5.1MM
  • Austin Romine (5.045) – $2.0MM
  • Tommy Kahnle (3.131) – $1.5MM
  • Greg Bird (3.053) – $1.5MM
Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top