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Poll: Where Will Roki Sasaki Sign?

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The 2025 international amateur signing period begins tomorrow. While that milestone is a bit of a footnote for many fans in the offseason calendar, this year is different thanks to the presence of 23-year-old phenom Roki Sasaki. Sasaki was posted for major league clubs by Nippon Professional Baseball’s Chiba Lotte Marines just after the Winter Meetings last month. As an NPB player coming to the majors before the age of 25, he’s considered an amateur despite his dominance over the course of four seasons in Japan.

The fact that Sasaki is coming to the majors through the system in place for international amateurs created a wide-open race for his services on paper. International amateurs can only sign minor league deals that are accompanied by signing bonuses from each team’s hard-capped international bonus pools. As such, clubs without substantial payrolls couldn’t be outbid by their large-market counterparts. More than 20 teams reportedly checked in with Sasaki when he was posted last month. He met with a number of teams in Los Angeles (where his agents at Wasserman are headquartered) before the holidays, including the Giants, Yankees, Mets, Rangers, and Cubs. Now, with just over a week left in Sasaki’s posting window, a trio of finalists has emerged: the Dodgers, Padres, and Blue Jays.

That the Dodgers are a finalist for Sasaki’s services should surprise no one. After all, Sasaki is a player who wanted to compete at the highest level badly enough to come over to the major leagues early and in doing so chose to forfeit the opportunity to land a nine-figure deal. Given that competitiveness, joining the reigning World Series champions who haven’t missed the postseason since 2011 figures to hold obvious appeal. Aside from that, the Dodgers are perhaps the largest international brand in the sport, employing former NPB and KBO stars like Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and, now, Korean infielder Hyeseong Kim. That global brand (and the potential for international endorsements that comes with it) could hold plenty of appeal for Sasaki given the fact that he’ll be signing a minor league contract.

All of that has made the Dodgers such an obvious fit for Sasaki’s services to many around the game that his agent, Joel Wolfe, felt compelled earlier this winter to deny rumors of a “handshake” deal with the Dodgers before Sasaki’s posting period had even begun. Despite this air of inevitability surrounding the Dodgers and Sasaki in the eyes of some fans and media members, however, there are two other finalists that each can offer a legitimate case for Sasaki’s services in their own right.

The Padres have received nearly as much attention as a likely co-favorite. Multiple reports have suggested that Sasaki has a strong relationship with veteran right-hander Yu Darvish, who has four seasons left on his deal in San Diego and would as such be available to serve as a mentor to Sasaki and guide him through his transition to the big leagues. San Diego, much like Los Angeles, also could benefit from being on the west coast with the associated mild climate and travel-related benefits that often appeal to NPB players. The Padres can also offer more money to Sasaki than the Dodgers; their bonus pool is $6,261,600 this year as compared to L.A.’s pool of just $5,146,200, though either club could trade for more bonus pool money in order to put together a more tempting offer for Sasaki.

Compared to the Dodgers and Padres, the Blue Jays appear to be a dark horse candidate. A connection between Sasaki and the club was first made just yesterday, when reporting surfaced that Sasaki had met with the club in Toronto. The Blue Jays have long sought to court top talents in free agency, including a pursuit of Ohtani last winter where they were generally acknowledged to have finished as the runner-up for the MVP’s services. Though the Blue Jays aren’t as well set-up for success as the Dodgers and Padres, having finished fifth in a crowded AL East just last year, Toronto could offer Sasaki the opportunity to be the face of the franchise in a way that more star-studded teams in L.A. and San Diego cannot — particularly if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ultimately signs elsewhere in free agency next winter. What’s more, the Blue Jays have the same $6,261,600 bonus pool the Padres have and therefore could outbid the Dodgers financially.

With just over a week left until the January 23 deadline by which Sasaki has to make a decision, where do MLBTR readers believe he’ll land? Will he hitch his wagon to the reigning World Series champs in Los Angeles? Will he join his longtime friend and mentor Darvish in San Diego? Or will he surprise the baseball world and opt to make a name for himself in Toronto? Have your say in the poll below:

Where Will Roki Sasaki Sign?
Los Angeles Dodgers 51.63% (11,589 votes)
San Diego Padres 32.87% (7,378 votes)
Toronto Blue Jays 15.50% (3,480 votes)
Total Votes: 22,447

Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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In order to keep with our growing base of subscribers, we'll be offering a second weekly Front Office subscriber chat taking place on Monday afternoons. I'll be hosting these Monday chats, which will come in addition to my weekly free chat on Tuesday afternoons, Mark Polishuk's free weekend chats and Anthony Franco's subscriber-only chat on Friday afternoon. None of those other live Q&A formats are going anywhere.

 

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What Could Pete Alonso’s Market Look Like On A Short-Term Deal?

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As the offseason wears on, talk about a potential short-term deal for Pete Alonso only intensifies. The slugger is one of the sport's most prolific home run hitters, second only to Aaron Judge dating back to Alonso's 2019 MLB debut. He's a consistent 30- or 40-homer presence who's anchored the middle of the Mets' lineup from the moment he set foot in the majors. The "Polar Bear" is a former Home Run Derby winner who's leaned into the spectacle of that summer showcase, participating in the event for five straight years and taking home the trophy on two different occasions.

Alonso is a marketable, star-caliber player who'd improve any lineup -- even on the heels of a downturn in performance (relative to his lofty standards). After slashing .261/.349/.535 through his first four MLB campaigns, Alonso has dipped to "only" .229/.324/.480 over the past two seasons. He's still corked 80 homers in that time and been 21% better than average at the plate by measure of wRC+, but it's a notable departure from Alonso's first four seasons, when wRC+ pegged him 37% better than the average hitter.

For a player who just turned 30 and doesn't bring much to the table with the glove or on the bases, any dip in production is worrying. Alonso's strikeout rate has also crept back up. After falling from 26.4% to 25.5% to 19.9% and 18.7% from 2019-22, he's punched out at a 22.9% rate in 2023 and a 24.7% rate in 2024. It's not necessarily an alarming trend yet for a player with Alonso's prodigious power -- especially since he's also boosted his walk rate in consecutive seasons, reaching 10.1% in '24 -- but there's still some reason to be concerned.

Alonso thrived at making contact on pitches off the plate in 2021-22 when his strikeout rate was at its lowest, doing so at a 59.4% clip that was well north of the 56.5% league average across those two seasons. Over the past two seasons, Alonso's contact rate outside the strike zone has dipped to 54.6%. He's offset that by cutting down on the rate at which he chases -- hence the improved walk rate -- but when he does chase, he's swinging through the pitch more often.

Those red flags (of varying severity), Alonso's age and the fact that he rejected a qualifying offer all surely combine to tamp down some interest in him. He never seemed that likely to reach the heights that Freddie Freeman did in free agency (six years, $162MM), but there was some thought that a five-year deal (or six at a lower rate) could be there.

That said, the short-term developments were also foreseeable. We've kicked ourselves for moving off the prediction of a three-year, $90MM deal with multiple opt-outs for Alonso, which for awhile was our unofficial prediction for MLBTR's annual Top 50 free agent list. The market hasn't rewarded this skill set in recent years, and it felt very possible that Alonso would go out looking for Freeman money -- if not more -- and find himself in a situation similar to that of last offseason's quartet of fellow Boras clients who lingered on the market into spring training. We ultimately opted to bet that the market -- or at least just the Mets -- would show out for Alonso and predicted five years and $125MM. Maybe he'll still get there, but the likelihood seems much lower now.

ESPN's Jeff Passan, The Athletic's Will Sammon, Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio and a host of others have all reported on the possibility of Alonso taking a short-term deal in recent weeks. It's hard to imagine such an arrangement would happen anywhere other than Queens. But, if the Mets simply don't want to bring Alonso back on a premium annual salary -- they're nearly into the third luxury penalty tier; Alonso would catapult them to the fourth and highest tier -- others could certainly enter the mix.

Let's run through some potential landing spots under the assumption that Alonso has indeed softened his stance on a short-term arrangement...

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Free Agent Faceoff: Kenley Jansen vs. David Robertson

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The free agent market for relief pitching has begun to heat up in recent days, with right-handers Chris Martin, Andrew Kittredge, and Jeff Hoffman all coming off the board. While top free agent relievers like Tanner Scott, Carlos Estévez, and Kirby Yates have gotten the majority of attention in the rumor mill of late, there’s a pair of veteran relief options available who between the two of them have more than 30 years of late inning experience on their resumes: right-handers Kenley Jansen and David Robertson. Both have plenty of closing experience and are on the wrong side of 35 but have remained effective even as they’ve aged into the latter stages of their careers, making them particular interesting options for clubs in need of bullpen help but with a preference for short-term deals.

Of the two, Jansen has the more storied career as a potential future Hall of Famer. The four-time All-Star and longtime Dodgers closer has taken a step back from his peak years in L.A., but his 447 career saves rank fourth all-time and he remains among the league’s better relief options. He departed the Dodgers following the 2021 season and has pitched for the Braves and Red Sox in the three years since then, posting a solid 3.42 ERA (126 ERA+) with a 3.26 FIP, a 29.9% strikeout rate, and an 8.9% walk rate while converting 97 of his 112 and save opportunities. He also boasts a dominant postseason resume, with a career 2.20 ERA, a 37.6% strikeout rate, and 20 saves across ten playoff runs.

The 37-year-old Jansen’s 3.44 ERA and 3.30 FIP during his two years in Boston were both solid, but his strikeout rate (28.1%) trended downward while his walk rate (9.2%) has begun to tick up. Most concerning, Jansen has begun allowing far more damaging contact. After posting a barrel rate of just 5.8% and a 25.7% hard-hit rate from the beginning of Statcast data in 2015 to the end of the 2022 season, those same figures have ballooned to 9.1% and 36.5% since he arrived in Boston. That’s left him with a 4.30 xFIP that’s more in line with middle relief options like Phil Maton and Héctor Neris than what’s expected of an elite closer, though other metrics like SIERA (3.62) are more favorable.

Robertson, meanwhile, has split his time between setup work (196 career holds) and closing (177 saves) over his 16-year career. He saved just two games for the Rangers last year and last saved more than 20 games in a season back in 2016. He’s the older of the pair and will turn 40 in April. That’s not to say Robertson is without his advantages, however. After a trio of lost seasons due to injury from 2019 to 2021, Robertson has reclaimed his place among the game’s top relievers with numbers that largely outshine Jansen over the past three years.

While bouncing between the Cubs, Phillies, Mets, Marlins, and Rangers over the past three years, Robertson has posted a 2.82 ERA and 3.24 FIP while striking out 31.1% of opponents in 201 innings of work. His 10.5% walk rate during that time leaves something to be desired and is more than a full percentage point higher than Jansen’s, but Robertson delivered a much more robust platform season with a 3.00 ERA and a 2.65 FIP in 72 innings for the Rangers as compared to Jansen’s 3.29 ERA and 3.00 FIP in 54 2/3 innings for Boston. Robertson’s also been more flexible in terms of his role over the years; he’s shown comfort both closing and acting as a setup man, while more than 80% of Jansen’s career innings have come in the ninth inning or later.

If you were running a team in need of late-inning relief help this winter, which veteran righty would you rather have for 2025? Would you prefer the younger Jansen with his elite postseason performance and lengthy track record of success in the ninth inning? Or would you opt for Robertson’s stronger peripheral numbers, flexibility to work outside of the ninth inning, and excellent platform season? Have your say in the poll below:

Which Would You Rather Have For 2025?
David Robertson 64.76% (2,137 votes)
Kenley Jansen 35.24% (1,163 votes)
Total Votes: 3,300

Free Agent Profile: Yasmani Grandal

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This winter’s free agent market has been hot in some ways but there are still plenty of intriguing names out there for most positions. One area that moved fairly quickly was the catching market, with many of the top names off the board.

It wasn’t an amazing class to begin with but the top free agent backstops this winter were Danny Jansen, Carson Kelly and Kyle Higashioka. All three of them signed about a month ago. Gary Sánchez, Travis d’Arnaud, Jacob Stallings and Austin Hedges have also been locked up.

For teams still looking for help behind the plate, their options are now more limited. Former All-Star Game MVP Elias Díaz is still out there, though he’s coming off a season in which his struggles were pronounced enough that he was released by the Rockies, finishing out the year as Higashioka’s backup in San Diego. Christian Bethancourt had some good results with the Cubs last year but was nonetheless outrighted, perhaps due to how inconsistent he’s been in recent years. James McCann has had passable offense at times but his work behind the plate hasn’t been well regarded.

One intriguing guy still available is Yasmani Grandal. His numbers were rough in 2022 and 2023 but there are some ways in which last year was a bounceback. The Pirates gave a lot of time behind the plate to Joey Bart, who engineered a nice breakout season, as well as former top overall pick Henry Davis. But Grandal was somewhat quietly in the mix next to those guys and managed to get into 72 games and step to the plate 243 times, as well as crouching behind the dish for 560 1/3 innings.

Offensively, he had a cromulent performance. His 18.9% strikeout rate was his best apart from his part-time work over a decade ago, before he was established as a big leaguer. His 9.9% walk rate was a bit below some of his previous work but still above league average. He also popped nine home runs in that limited role. His .228/.304/.400 batting line translated to a 95 wRC+, below average overall but above par for a catcher.

Grandal has been a solid defender in his career, particularly in the framing department, and that continued last year. Among guys with at least 550 innings caught in 2024, Grandal ranked seventh on the FanGraphs leaderboard for framing. The six guys ahead of him on that list each had more than 700 innings behind the plate. Patrick Bailey was the only backstop significantly ahead of the pack on a rate basis. Statcast had Grandal 11th on their framing leaderboard. Of the 10 guys ahead of him, only Hedges caught fewer pitches than Grandal.

The strong framing contributed to a solid overall defensive profile. When combined with a decent year at the plate, he actually provided some sneaky value, depending on which measure of wins above replacement you trust most. Baseball Reference only gave him 0.6 WAR on the year but FanGraphs had him at 1.4 and Baseball Prospectus at 1.8. That’s likely due to those outlets having different weights for catcher defense or framing specifically.

Grandal hasn’t gotten any attention this offseason. He hasn’t been tagged at MLBTR since early May, when he was activated from the injured list, having started the season on the IL due to plantar fasciitis in his left foot.

He isn’t going to help sell season tickets, but for clubs who still want upgrades behind the plate, perhaps he’s the best bet. He isn’t likely to cost much either. He only got $2.5MM plus incentives from the Bucs a year ago. Perhaps his solid season can get him a bump, but he’s also now 36 years old and still unsigned, which doesn’t give him a lot of negotiating leverage. Even if he does earn a raise, it surely won’t be massive.

Going back to Pittsburgh is probably not an option. Bart surely earned himself some run after his strong season, while the club still has Davis. There’s also Endy Rodríguez, who seemed to be emerging as the club’s catcher of the future in 2023, but then spent 2024 recovering from surgery on his ulnar collateral ligament and flexor tendon in his throwing arm. Jason Delay is on the 40-man roster as well.

Teams like the Red Sox, Nationals, Padres, Phillies, Atlanta, Blue Jays, Mariners and others could arguably do with improving their catching depth. Some of those clubs have strong starting options but most clubs avoid leaning on one catcher too much these days. Cal Raleigh led the league with 125 starts last year, meaning every team had a backup/secondary catcher in the starting lineup at least 37 times, often far more.

There’s obviously some risk with signing a 36-year-old catcher but he arguably has a decent floor, depending on how one values his framing. While he struggled offensively in 2022 and 2023, BR considered him to be well below replacement level, but FG had him just barely below, while BP gave him 2.3 WAR for that two-year period.

Poll: Where Will Tanner Scott Sign?

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After staying cold for the majority of the offseason, the free agent market has finally begun to heat up for relievers this week with veteran right-handers Chris Martin and Andrew Kittredge both agreeing to one-year deals. They join previous deals for Aroldis Chapman, Blake Treinen, and Yimi Garcia among the major signings of the winter among late-inning relief arms, but a number of the top arms on the market remain available at this point. Chief among those options is left-hander Tanner Scott, who enjoyed a breakout season in 2023 with the Marlins and built on that last year to deliver a dominant platform campaign in Miami and San Diego.

Scott’s fantastic work over the past two seasons, when he’s pitched to a combined 2.04 ERA (224 ERA+) with a 2.53 ERA with a 31.3% strikeout rate in 150 innings of work, has catapulted him to the pinnacle of the market for relief arms in his first trip through free agency this winter. At the outset of the offseason, MLBTR predicted that Scott would land a four-year, $56MM deal. Even that hefty price tag may have been light, as reporting has indicated that Scott could receive a multi-year deal in the realm of $20MM annually.

That would seemingly put him in line with the other top closers on the market in recent years, Josh Hader and Edwin Diaz, at least in terms of average annual value. The largest guarantee for a reliever in MLB history went to Diaz, who signed a five-year, $102MM deal ($20.4MM AAV). That contract contained considerable deferrals, however, and by measure of net present value was valued closer to $93MM. Hader signed a five-year deal worth $95MM without deferred money ($19MM AAV). It would be a surprise if Scott managed to surpass the guarantees Hader and Diaz landed, but the AAV is more feasible (especially on a three-year deal).

Scott is a few months older than Hader was at the time of his deal and more than a year older than Diaz was. He also simply lacks the track record of the other two. Hader and Diaz were multi-time All-Stars with top-10 Cy Young finishes who’d spent virtually their entire careers as late-inning arms. Scott was a middle reliever for the first several seasons of his career, with a 4.61 ERA (95 ERA+) and a 3.91 FIP entering his breakout 2023 campaign.

Rumblings on Scott haven’t been particularly prolific this winter, but a few teams have been connected to the southpaw. The Yankees were reportedly in the mix earlier this winter, though their addition of closer Devin Williams, current need for an infielder, and reportedly limited budget space going forward could take them out of the running. On the other hand, if they can trade Marcus Stroman, that might make them more amenable to another splash in the ’pen. The Dodgers have been the team most frequently connected to Scott, while the Mets reportedly held a meeting with him recently. The Braves and Red Sox have been at least loosely connected to Scott as well.

The Dodgers make plenty of sense after a season where they struggled to find consistency in the ninth inning. Their late-inning mix is currently headlined by a combination of Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, and Treinen. That trio all throw from the right side, making Scott a nice addition as a dominant southpaw to pair with fellow lefty Alex Vesia.

The Mets surely find the idea of pairing Scott with Diaz tantalizing. It’d be understandable if Diaz’s lost 2023 season and struggles in the first half of 2024 led the club to be a bit cautious when it comes to lengthy deals for relievers, but those factors may also reinforce the value of adding another shutdown arm who can help keep the bullpen afloat if Diaz is injured or struggling.

The Red Sox entered the winter in need of high-leverage relief help after losing Martin and Kenley Jansen to free agency, and expressed a clear preference for adding a lefty to the mix. That made Scott a seemingly ideal fit for the club, but they struck quickly in free agency by adding Chapman. They remain involved in the relief market, but it’s unclear whether they’re still pursuing Scott specifically.

Perhaps the most interesting sleeper is Atlanta. It’s been an extremely quiet winter for the Braves. By this time last year, they’d already swung trades for Aaron Bummer, Jarred Kelenic, and Chris Sale, extended both Sale and Pierce Johnson, and signed Joe Jimenez and Reynaldo Lopez in free agency. This winter has been quiet outside of trading Jorge Soler in a salary dump deal and restructuring the contracts of Lopez and Bummer. Atlanta’s most significant addition is a split contract for outfielder Bryan De La Cruz. The Braves generally aren’t shy about paying heavy per-year salaries in the bullpen, and with Raisel Iglesias ticketed for free agency next winter and Jimenez likely out for the season, perhaps the club could look to Scott to fortify the bullpen in the short-term before taking over as the closer in future seasons.

There are, of course, other speculative fits to consider — even if they’ve yet to be specifically linked to Scott. The D-backs still want a closer and already made one surprising free-agent grab when they inked Corbin Burnes. The Blue Jays keep finishing runner-up on all their pursuits; could they eventually pivot to a big bullpen splash? The Giants have been tied to Pete Alonso recently and were in on Burnes before he signed in Arizona; they clearly still have some money to spend, even after signing Justin Verlander.

So, where will Scott end up? And will he approach or even exceed the deals landed by Hader and Diaz in free agency, or hew more closely to MLBTR’s $56MM prediction at the outset of free agency? Have your say in the polls below:

Where Will Tanner Scott End Up?
Mets 29.01% (2,913 votes)
Dodgers 20.06% (2,015 votes)
Red Sox 16.04% (1,611 votes)
Other (specify in comments) 14.62% (1,468 votes)
Braves 13.25% (1,331 votes)
Yankees 7.02% (705 votes)
Total Votes: 10,043
How Much Will Tanner Scott Sign For?
Between $40MM and $60MM 52.38% (3,372 votes)
Between $61MM and $94MM 28.35% (1,825 votes)
Under $40MM 16.30% (1,049 votes)
$95MM or more 2.97% (191 votes)
Total Votes: 6,437

Poll: Do The Blue Jays Need More Help On Offense Or In The Rotation?

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Just over a year removed from a disappointing offseason that saw the club emerge as a finalist for Shohei Ohtani but ultimately come up just short, the Blue Jays are once again in the midst of a difficult offseason where star players have repeatedly signed elsewhere despite aggressive pursuits from Toronto’s front office. The club was one of five teams seriously involved in the Juan Soto sweepstakes but seemingly finished behind both New York teams and the Red Sox in their quest to land him. Since then, they’ve fallen short in pursuits of Max Fried, Corbin Burnes, and Teoscar Hernandez in free agency as well as Cody Bellinger on the trade market.

They’ve remained connected to virtually every major free agent available this winter, and have been linked to everyone from first baseman Pete Alonso to right-handers Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta. Outfielder Anthony Santander is the player they’ve been most strongly connected to of all; they’ve reportedly made him a contract offer and are viewed (alongside the Angels) as potential front-runners for his services. Of course, the same was said about Toronto during the sweepstakes for Burnes before the right-hander landed in Arizona. With team president Mark Shapiro entering the final year of his contract and GM Ross Atkins under contract for just one year beyond that, the front office is surely facing plenty of pressure to make the club’s final year of team control over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette count—particularly if the club isn’t able to work out an extension with the former.

The Jays are a team that stands to significantly benefit from an infusion of impact talent in virtually all areas of the roster. Their 101 wRC+ (13th in baseball) last year was middle of the pack, as was their 3.95 rotation ERA (14th). While the club’s disastrous 2024 bullpen (29th in baseball by ERA) seems to be an obvious place to upgrade, the presence of high-quality veterans like Kirby Yates, David Robertson, and Kenley Jansen on the market create plenty of options for the Jays if they goal is to add to their relief corps without committing to a large contract.

One complicating factor is that while the Jays have been connected to a number of upper-level players on the market, it remains unclear whether they have wherewithal to land multiple impact players. Reporting shortly after the Winter Meetings suggested that Toronto may have room for only one major addition in their budget, whether that player ends up being an arm or a bat. If the club truly is only willing or able to add one high-priced player this winter, there are valid arguments for either a rotation piece or a lineup addition.

The argument for adding to the club’s rotation is a fairly simply one: the starting five lost a valuable piece over the summer in Yusei Kikuchi, and he’s yet to he replaced . Right-handers Yariel Rodriguez and Jake Bloss are solid depth options but leave something to be desired as the club’s on-paper fifth starter options. While a weak back-end of the rotation is something a club could stomach with a strong front half, staff ace Kevin Gausman is coming off a pedestrian 2024 season and just celebrated his 34th birthday. Adding a starter like Flaherty to the mix would help to lighten Gausman’s load as he looks to rebound, take pressure off Bowden Francis to repeat a breakout 2024 season that saw him pitch to a 1.53 ERA in nine starts down the stretch, and allow the club to push Rodriguez into more of a depth role.

While the club’s rotation is short on depth, that’s one area where the Toronto offense excels. Interesting young players like Addison Barger, Orelvis Martinez, Leo Jimenez, and Davis Schneider are currently projected for roles on the bench or at Triple-A on Opening Day, and that’s with Daulton Varsho expected to miss the first few weeks of the regular season. Varsho’s eventual return from the injured list should add even more depth, and with so many young hitters it’s not hard to imagine one of them taking a step forward in 2025.

While that group of young hitters (excluding Varsho) generally can’t be expected to produce on the level of a player like Santander or Alex Bregman, there is one player who could: Bichette. The star infielder struggled through a career-worst season in 2024 due to in part to injuries but had been among the steadiest All-Star level bats in baseball for several years prior to last season’s downturn.

It’s clear that the club’s offense needs at least some level of reinforcement. Of the 19 hitters to appear in at least 25 games for the Jays last season, only Guerrero was above average by measure of wRC+ and still remains with the team. While the club’s bevy of young hitters could improve and it’s easy to imagine Bichette or even Alejandro Kirk bouncing back to the more robust offensive performances they’ve offered in the past, Guerrero is the only true source of stability in the lineup.

That creates a strong argument for adding someone who can protect Guerrero, but it’s also fair to note that even a lesser addition who can provide above-average offense (e.g. Jesse Winker) could still help the lineup and leave the door open for a bigger addition to the rotation.

If you were in charge of the Blue Jays and only had room in the budget for one major addition, how would you handle the situation? Would you bolster the lineup and hope that a rebound from Gausman and a full season from Bowden in the rotation is enough to keep make up for the loss of Kikuchi and a lack of depth? Or would you add a starting pitcher and hope for a rebound from Bichette and steps forward from the club’s young hitters? Have your say in the poll below:

What Should The Blue Jays Prioritize?
Prioritize adding an impact hitter to the lineup. 74.96% (2,476 votes)
Prioritize adding an impact starter to the rotation. 25.04% (827 votes)
Total Votes: 3,303

Triston Casas And Boston’s Infield Dilemma

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The rumor mill has been a whirlwind for Red Sox fans this offseason, with the club diving headfirst into the Juan Soto sweepstakes only to come up short, then getting involved in the markets for Max Fried and Corbin Burnes before ultimately pivoting to Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler. Now, Boston appears to be in the thick of the market for impact hitters. The club has not made its desire to land a bat who can help balance their heavily left-handed lineup out a secret this winter, and they’ve been connected to a number of major bats like Anthony Santander, Alex Bregman, and Nolan Arenado.

There’s been plenty of focus on the possibility of the club adding a right-handed infielder like Bregman or Arenado in particular. Either of those deals could come with complications, however. Kristian Campbell and Marcelo Mayer are both top prospects for the Red Sox who figure to debut in 2025 and fit best on the infield. As the club is currently constructed, with Triston Casas and Rafael Devers at the corners and Trevor Story at shortstop, second base appears to be the cleanest way for either of those players to get into the lineup- or for the club to add a free agent infielder. Bregman has indicated a willingness to play the keystone, but it would be a risky decision for the Red Sox to play a solid defensive third baseman out of position in deference to the incumbent Devers and his lackluster defense. And the idea of adding a glove-first third baseman like Arenado and moving him off the hot corner seems even more farfetched.

That’s led to plenty of speculation swirling around the future of Casas this winter, as the young first baseman would be by far the easiest piece of the club’s infield mix to move. Casas, who turns 25 next week, has done nothing but hit in the majors to this point with a .250/.337/.473 slash line in 222 big league games so far. That’s been good for a 125 wRC+, and with four years of team control remaining the slugger could be a building block for a number of teams around the game—including the Red Sox. While a player with Casas’s combination of talent and team control should garner plenty of attention if made available on the market, it’s worth noting that the youngster’s 2024 season may have raised some red flags that could make potential suitors concerned about his value.

For one thing, he missed most of the season due to torn cartilage in his ribcage. In the 63 games where Casas was healthy enough to take the field, he hit just .241/.337/.462 (119 wRC+) and posted the lowest walk rate (12.3%) of his young career. Both of those are still well above-average figures and not necessarily cause for concern by themselves, but Casas’s sharp uptick in strikeouts is more alarming. He struck out at a 31.7% clip in his 243 plate appearances last year. If he had stayed healthy enough to qualify, that would’ve been the second-highest strikeout rate in the majors last year behind only Zack Gelof. Third on that list is Reds phenom Elly De La Cruz, proving it’s at least theoretically possible to be an impactful major leaguer even if you punch out nearly a third of the time, but that’s a much steeper ask for a player as defensively limited as Casas.

Of course, those potential red flags haven’t stopped Casas from getting plenty of attention in the rumor mill. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has insisted that the club isn’t shopping the young slugger, but several reports have indicated that the club is at least listening to offers on him even if they aren’t placing him on the trading block outright. In particular, there was plenty of smoke surrounding the possibility of a trade between the Red Sox and Mariners regarding Casas last month. Those talks reportedly saw Seattle rebuff the idea of either trading one of their young starting pitchers for Casas or else trading Luis Castillo for a package involving both Casas and pricey DH Masataka Yoshida, while the Red Sox balked at the idea of trading Casas for Castillo without also offloading Yoshida’s salary.

With Crochet and Buehler now in the fold, the Red Sox have an abundance of starting pitching options that could make a deal for a player like Castillo less palatable. That being said, reports have indicated that the club could still be open to dealing Casas in order to facilitate other roster moves. One such roster move a trade of Casas could facilitate would be the addition of Bregman or Arenado at third base, while Casas departs the roster in order to allow a potential move to first base for Devers. Alternatively, parting ways with Casas could open the door for the club to instead add a right-handed slugger like Pete Alonso to the lineup at first base if the club opts to keep Devers at the hot corner.

It’s an interesting conundrum the Red Sox face: they’ve missed the playoffs in each of the past three seasons and finally appear poised to seriously contend for the AL East again in 2025. There’s at least theoretically room for an impact player on the infield as things stand, but a complicated positional fit and the presence of impact prospects at Triple-A nearing their big league debut would complicate any such acquisitions.

Should the club stand pat on the infield, preserving the potential star power of Casas and leaving the door open for Mayer and/or Campbell to step in at second base this year? Should the club deal Casas in order to guarantee that there’s room for both a top prospect and an impact addition on the infield, despite the questions regarding Casas’s current value? Or should the Red Sox push their chips in and sign an impact player while keeping Casas in the fold, regardless of the awkward positional fit and the risk of blocking impact prospects? Have your say in the poll below:

How Should The Red Sox Handle Their Infield?
Keep Casas and sign an impact hitter despite positional concerns. 40.82% (1,843 votes)
Trade Casas and sign an impact infielder. 31.69% (1,431 votes)
Keep Casas and don't add an impact infielder. 27.49% (1,241 votes)
Total Votes: 4,515

Where Will Jack Flaherty End Up?

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If there’s been one defining characteristic of the 2024-25 offseason so far (aside from Juan Soto’s record-shattering contract), it’s that the market for starting pitching has been extremely robust. On the heels of a 2023-24 offseason that saw top-of-the-market arms like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery linger on the market until the calendar flipped to March, right-hander Michael Wacha kicked things off by re-upping with the Royals before free agency started and the pace hasn’t slowed down much since then. After right-hander Corbin Burnes reached a deal with the Diamondbacks in the final days of December, nearly every notable starting pitcher was already off the market by the time the calendar flipped to January.

Perhaps the biggest exception to that is right-hander Jack Flaherty, who MLBTR ranked as the offseason’s #8 free agent (fourth among starters) at the outset of the winter as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. At the time, we predicted Flaherty would land a five-year, $115MM pact in free agency. That prediction at least seems to have ended up in the right ballpark, as Flaherty is reportedly seeking a five-year deal at this stage of his free agency. Between the winter’s robust market for pitching and the fact that Flaherty was able to reach free agency unencumbered by a Qualifying Offer thanks to a midseason trade from the Tigers to the Dodgers, it stands to reason that he should have a strong chance of reaching that sort of deal.

On the other hand, however, it’s worth noting that there are some signs the market for pitching has begun to cool. Burnes’s deal with Arizona just before the New Year came with a strong average annual value and a potentially lucrative opt-out clause after the second year, but the deferred money involved in the deal reportedly knocks the net present value of the pact below $200MM. MLBTR predicted a seven-year, $200MM pact for Burnes at the outset of the winter, so while even that diminished net present value is more-or-less in line with expectations headed into the offseason, the deal in some ways pales in comparison to the one signed by Max Fried earlier in the winter and certainly falls short of the righty’s reported asking price of $245MM.

If the market for starters has indeed begun to cool somewhat, it’s possible that the market for Flaherty could start to fizzle out when the start of Spring Training games draws near. After all, we need only look back at Montgomery and Snell last winter to see how a pitcher’s market can collapse once they don’t have enough time left to have a typical Spring Training. For now, however, Flaherty still seems to enjoy a fairly robust market. The Blue Jays, Giants, Cubs, Tigers and Oroles have all been connected to the right-hander in recent days.

The Blue Jays and Giants have both been connected to the majority of the offseason’s high-end free agents, as neither club has been particularly shy about its desire to land impact talent this winter. Toronto was notably among the apparent finalists for Burnes before he signed in Arizona, and while the Giants were also strongly connected to Burnes there’s been some indications in the aftermath of his deal with the Diamondbacks that San Francisco is more focused on offense than pitching. Given that the Giants have been attached to first baseman Pete Alonso, it’s possible that the club’s interest in a pitcher of Flaherty’s caliber is more as a backup plan in case they find themselves unable to land the big bat they desire. There’s a possibility that a similar situation could play out with the Blue Jays, as well. The club is known to have extended an offer to outfielder Anthony Santander already, and reporting earlier this winter suggested that Toronto may only have room for one significant multi-year deal in the budget.

It’s possible that the Tigers fall into a similar boat. While the club certainly has the payroll flexibility to make multiple significant multi-year additions if they so desire, president of baseball operations Scott Harris has seemed to be hesitant about making significant multi-year commitments this winter, instead opting to land Alex Cobb and Gleyber Torres on one-year deals. That hasn’t stopped them from engaging in the markets of some big-time free agents, but with Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson helping to anchor a young rotation it’s easy to imaging the club prioritizing a hitter if they decide to offer a nine-figure deal to a player this winter. To that end, Detroit has been one of the teams most frequently connected to third baseman Alex Bregman and also appears to be in the mix for Santander.

Two clubs that have been generally focused on pitching upgrades this winter are the Orioles and the Cubs. Baltimore has already added Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton to its rotation this winter, and those additions have left them with a deep group of potential starters that isn’t in desperate need of another arm. With that being said, neither Sugano nor Morton can be expected to replace Burnes as the ace of the staff, and with 2023’s staff ace Kyle Bradish expected to miss at least the first half of 2025 it’s fair to think the club would benefit from adding a player of Flaherty’s caliber. To that end, they’ve seemingly remained on the periphery of his market as they continue their search for upgrades even after last week’s deal for Morton.

As for Chicago, they in some ways appear to be the best fit for Flaherty’s services. The Cubs appear to be mostly set on offense after adding Kyle Tucker and Carson Kelly; while there’s potentially room at third base for another bat, they haven’t been closely connected to Alex Bregman in free agency given the presence of top prospect Matt Shaw as a potential Opening Day starter at the position. There’s been plenty of buzz about them adding to their pitching staff, however, and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic recently described another rotation addition as “inevitable” for the club, whether that’s a move to improve depth or bringing a more impactful piece into the fold. Flaherty would certainly fall into the latter category, but it’s worth noting that Sharma reported earlier this winter that while the Cubs have engaged with Flaherty, they were feeling a bit squeamish about his asking price at that point.

There’s some incentive for Flaherty to wait at least a little longer before making his decision: the presence of right-hander Roki Sasaki on the market. Sasaki is being pursued by a large number of teams and is rumored to have met with at least two Flaherty suitors: the Giants and Cubs. Given his unique situation as a potential front-of-the-rotation piece who can be had for nothing more than a minor league deal (and a hefty portion of a club’s international bonus pool), it’s easy to imagine a number of pitching-hungry clubs focusing their attention squarely on Sasaki while he’s available. The right-hander’s decision is due by January 23, so it’s not hard to imagine Flaherty waiting for that date in case a club that misses out on Sasaki either steps up their offer or enters the fray as a new potential suitor.

In the meantime, how do you think Flaherty’s free agency will play out? Will he land with one of his currently known suitors, or will a “mystery team” swoop in and get a deal done? Is the right-hander going to land a deal within the ballpark of MLBTR’s prediction? Will he fall short of, or perhaps exceed, expectations? Have your say in the polls below.

Where Will Flaherty Sign?
Giants 23.83% (1,987 votes)
Tigers 18.97% (1,582 votes)
Orioles 17.71% (1,477 votes)
Blue Jays 14.82% (1,236 votes)
Cubs 13.30% (1,109 votes)
Other (Specify in the comments) 11.36% (947 votes)
Total Votes: 8,338
How Much Will Flaherty Be Guaranteed?
Less than $100MM 46.66% (2,995 votes)
$100MM - $125MM 44.04% (2,827 votes)
More than $125MM 9.30% (597 votes)
Total Votes: 6,419

How NL Teams Have Addressed Their Weakest Positions Of 2024

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We covered the American League yesterday, so now let’s see what the National League’s 15 teams have done (so far) to address their least-productive positions from the 2024 campaign.  Baseball Reference’s position-by-position bWAR breakdown is our guide, so let’s dive in…

Braves (Left field, -0.2 bWAR): Atlanta took a big chunk of money off the Mariners’ payroll to facilitate last winter’s five-player trade involving former top prospect Jarred Kelenic, with the idea that Kelenic would break out with a change of scenery.  Unfortunately for the Braves, their investment didn’t pay off, as Kelenic hit only .231/.286/.393 over 449 plate appearances with his new team.  Old friends Adam Duvall and Eddie Rosario were also ineffective as part of the left field timeshare, and while Ramon Laureano played well, Atlanta still opted to non-tender Laureano in November.  Bryan De La Cruz was brought in on a split league deal but he might be targeted to play right field in place of the recovering Ronald Acuna Jr., and then perhaps shifted into a platoon with Kelenic once Acuna returns from his ACL rehab.  It has been a pretty quiet offseason overall for Atlanta, but acquiring an everyday outfielder to supplant Kelenic and company entirely might still be on the to-do list.

Brewers (First base, -0.6 bWAR): It’s never good when a team’s second highest-paid player is chiefly responsible for its least-effective spot on the diamond, particularly when that club is a lower-payroll outfit like Milwaukee.  Rhys Hoskins signed a two-year, $34MM deal with the Brew Crew last winter and unsurprisingly passed on an opt-out clause after he hit an uninspiring .214/.303/.419 over 517 PA in 2024.  Jake Bauers was even less effective as the left-handed side of the platoon and was outrighted off the 40-man roster and into free agency at season’s end.  The Brewers won’t be able to trade Hoskins unless they eat most of the $22MM still owed on his deal, so the hope for now is that the veteran will more consistent in his second year in Milwaukee, perhaps with former top prospect Tyler Black also contributing as Bauers’ replacement.

Cardinals (Right field, -0.1 bWAR): Alec Burleson put up pretty decent numbers during his 173 PA as a right fielder, but the other seven players who cycled through the Cardinals’ right field position didn’t contribute much of anything.  With St. Louis focusing on its younger core in 2025, the plan for now is to give former top prospect Jordan Walker an extended look as the everyday right fielder.  Walker doesn’t turn 23 until May and he has just 643 big league plate appearances over two seasons, so there’s still plenty of time for a breakout.

Cubs (Third base, 0.2 bWAR): The deadline deal that brought Isaac Paredes in from the Rays didn’t do much to stabilize the Wrigleyville hot corner, and the Cubs then shook the position up again by dealing Paredes to the Astros as part of the Kyle Tucker trade package.  President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters last month that top prospect Matt Shaw will get a “long look” at third base, but “he has to earn that job.”  Chicago has been linked to such experienced third basemen as Josh Rojas and Yoan Moncada in the aftermath of the Tucker trade, so chances are the Cubs will bring in a veteran to compete with Shaw or split time at third base.

Diamondbacks (Rotation, 3.0 bWAR): Technically, the 2.2 bWAR that the Diamondbacks received from the center field spot is their lowest position on Baseball Reference’s chart.  However, since only two teams got less from their starting pitchers than Arizona did in 2024, it is more accurate to point to the rotation as the flaw that left the D’Backs painfully short of a playoff berth.  Injuries were the biggest reason for the rotation’s struggles, and it is possible that things will improve just if Eduardo Rodriguez, Merrill Kelly, and Jordan Montgomery are all healthier in 2025.  That didn’t stop the D’Backs from going out and signing Corbin Burnes to a surprising six-year, $210MM deal, which only enhances the likelihood that Arizona can now trade from its starting depth before Opening Day.

Dodgers (Center field, 1.2 bWAR): James Outman and Chris Taylor both struggled, and rookie Andy Pages fared far better defensively in left field than in center.  Fortunately for Los Angeles, trade deadline pickups Tommy Edman, Enrique Hernandez, and Kevin Kiermaier stabilized things up the middle late in the season and throughout the playoffs, helping the Dodgers win the World Series.  With Edman now signed to a long-term extension, he looks to be the top choice in center field going forward, though his ability to play all over the diamond gives the Dodgers some flexibility if another center-field option emerges.

Giants (Second base, -0.2 bWAR): Tyler Fitzgerald’s excellent rookie season ensured that he’d be lining up somewhere in San Francisco’s 2025 lineup, and the only question was whether or not the Giants would keep him at shortstop or move him elsewhere around the diamond.  With Willy Adames now locked in as the new starting shortstop, Fitzgerald will slide across the middle infield and take over the keystone.  Fitzgerald’s inflated .380 BABIP hints at a regression from his big 2024 numbers, though even a couple of steps back will still represent an improvement over what the Giants received from their second base mix last year.  Thairo Estrada saw the bulk of the playing time as the Giants’ second baseman in 2024, but the two sides parted ways entirely after the season and Estrada is now set to play for an NL West rival in Colorado.

Marlins (Left field, -1.2 bWAR): Left field edges out the catching position, as the Marlins only received -1.1 bWAR from their backstops in 2024.  Bryan De La Cruz and Nick Gordon are both gone, leaving left field open for Kyle Stowers or Jesus Sanchez as the primary left fielder next season, unless that duo are instead deployed in center (Stowers) and right (Sanchez).  Griffin Conine, Dane Myers, Javier Sanoja, and Derek Hill figure to all be part of the outfield mix in some regard, leaving the rebuilding Marlins with options about how exactly they’ll divvy up the playing time.

Mets (Bullpen, 0.0 bWAR): Only the Blue Jays and Rockies received less from their bullpens than the Mets in 2024, which perhaps reflects New York’s high-risk and high-reward approach to the relief corps.  The Mets had the highest reliever strikeout rate (27.7%) in baseball, but also the third-worst walk rate (10.7%), evening things out to a 4.03 bullpen ERA that ranked 17th of 30 teams.  President of baseball operations David Stearns has a long history of finding unheralded relievers that deliver good performances, which could be why the Mets’ bullpen moves have thus far been mostly restricted to adding a bunch of pitchers on minor league contracts.  Finding a gem or two within that group would help immensely, but signing a more clear-cut candidate for high-leverage innings would help immensely, particularly if that reliever is left-handed.

Nationals (Third base, -0.5 bWAR): After acquiring Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell to address their deficiencies at first base (0.3 bWAR) and DH (0.1 bWR), the Nationals figure to now more fully turn their attention to the hot corner.  The Nats explored the creative solution of longtime second baseman Gleyber Torres at the position, but Torres didn’t have interest in moving off the keystone and instead signed with the Tigers.  Whatever veteran third baseman Washington adds is likely to be a short-term fix, as top prospect Brady House looks like the long-term answer at the position and figures to make his MLB debut at some point in 2025.

Padres (Pinch-hitting, 0.4 bWAR): Among more regular positions, the Padres’ lowest total was 0.9 bWAR from their catchers.  Kyle Higashioka left in free agency to sign with the Rangers, weakening both areas and leaving Luis Campusano as San Diego’s top choice behind the plate.  There has been plenty of speculation swirling about the Padres’ offseason but little in the way of substantive moves, perhaps owing to the uncertainty surrounding exactly how much the front office has available to spend this winter.  Since the Padres are one of Roki Sasaki’s top suitors, it is possible the team might be holding off until Sasaki makes his decision to know exactly how they’ll proceed in configuring the rotation, perhaps trading away a bigger salary or two, and bolstering the catching corps and the bench.

Phillies (Right field, 1.0 bWAR): Nick Castellanos hit .254/.311/.431 with 23 homers over 659 plate appearances, translating to a decent but unspectacular 105 wRC+.  Castellanos’ value was further limited by his right-field glovework, which drew dismal reviews from public defensive metrics.  It added up to an 0.8 bWAR season for Castellanos, which isn’t a great result for a player on a $20MM salary.  With two years and $40MM more on Castellanos’ contract, the Phillies’ efforts to find a trade partner will be difficult, leaving the Phils somewhat limited to just hoping that Castellanos can hit better in his age-33 season.

Pirates (Right field, -1.2 bWAR): On the bright side for the Phillies, at least they didn’t have the shakiest right field situation in the state of Pennsylvania.  A whopping 12 different players saw some action in right field for the Pirates last season, and the three players with the most innings logged at the position — Bryan De La Cruz, Edward Olivares, Connor Joe — have already been let go.  Pittsburgh has been seeking some new outfield help but hasn’t yet landed a prominent regular to suit up alongside center fielder Oneil Cruz and left fielder Bryan Reynolds.  As always, the limited payroll will shorten the Buccos’ list of possible targets, but adding even a platoon bat to split time with the incumbent in-house backup outfielders would fill a big hole in the roster.

Reds (Third base, -1.9 bWAR): Cincinnati received only 4.4 total bWAR from its position players in 2024, the third-lowest total of any team in the sport.  This lackluster number included sub-replacement scores from pinch-hitters (-0.1), the DH spot (-1.3), first base (-1.3) and finally the hot corner as the weakest cog in this faulty model of the Big Red Machine.  Unfortunately for the Reds, third base was the position that was supposed to have been firmed up by the signing of Jeimer Candelario to a three-year, $45MM contract last winter, but Candelario struggled to a 225/.279/.429 slash line in the first season of his deal.  Santiago Espinal and Noelvi Marte also didn’t hit well in their time at third base when Candelario was deployed over at first base, yet the Reds seem likely to run it back with this same trio at the hot corner next year.  A bounce-back from Candelario would be most helpful in the short term, and a breakout from former top prospect Marte (who missed 80 games due to a PED suspension) could give Cincinnati a longer-term fix as the Reds continue to try and figure out their infield mix.

Rockies (Bullpen, -2.0 bWAR): Only the Blue Jays’ pen had a lower bWAR total, and Toronto was also the only collective pitching staff in the league with a negative bWAR, as the Rockies finished 29th of 30 in the overall pitching category with an even 0.0 bWAR.  The Rockies have thus far brought in a couple of experienced relievers in Diego Castillo and Jimmy Herget to compete for jobs, but as you might expect, it isn’t easy luring bigger-name bullpen arms to the thin air of Coors Field.  With the club unlikely to splurge much on signings, Colorado could be counting on some more minor league signings or internal improvement to help upgrade the relief corps.

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