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Checking In On 2024’s Reliever-To-Rotation Experiments

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The 2023-24 offseason saw several teams go outside the box to add to their rotation mix by announcing plans to convert an established reliever into (or back into) a starting pitcher. It’s not a new concept by any means, of course, but it’s always notable when a player who’s found some success in one pitching role is shifted to the other — be it one-inning relievers stretching out to join a rotation or struggling starters shifting to the ’pen and hoping to find new life as their stuff plays up.

In some instances — e.g. Jordan Hicks, Reynaldo Lopez — the pitchers in question signed lucrative multi-year deals as part of this planned pivot. For others, this role change comes amid their original six seasons of club control and could greatly impact their earnings in arbitration and/or in free agency down the road.

Now that we’re about a quarter of the way through the year, it seems like a good time to check in on how some of these role changes are playing out. Readers should note that this rundown will focus on pitchers who pitched exclusively or near-exclusively out of the bullpen last season. Pitchers like Boston’s Garrett Whitlock (who started 10 games last year and nine in 2022) or Tampa Bay’s Zack Littell (who moved to the rotation last summer and finished out the ’23 campaign as a starter) aren’t the focus here so much as arms who were more strictly confined to short relief recently.

Since so many of these transitions are going to bring about clear workload concerns, we’ll check back in periodically throughout the season. For now, here’s how things are going through about 25% of the schedule.

Jordan Hicks, RHP, Giants

Hicks’ transition from flamethrowing late-inning reliever to … well, flamethrowing starting pitcher has gone seamlessly thus far. It’s only nine starts and 48 innings, but the 28-year-old boasts a 2.44 ERA in his move to the rotation. A career-low 19.9% strikeout rate is a red flag, but Hicks’ 8.2% walk rate is lower than the league average and a career-best mark as well. His 56.2% grounder rate isn’t quite as high as the 60% mark he carried into the season but is still more than 10 percentage points above average.

As one would expect, Hicks’ blazing sinker has lost quite a bit of velocity now that he’s not throwing one max-effort inning at a time. His sinker sat at 100.2 mph last year but is clocking in at 96 mph in 2024. Even with four fewer miles per hour on his primary offering, however, Hicks has more than enough velocity to keep hitters off balance.

Hicks has also fully incorporated the splitter he tinkered with in 2023 into his arsenal this year. After throwing it just 1.6% of the time last season, he’s thrown 22.5% splitters in 2024. Opponents may as well not even bother swinging at the pitch. Hicks has finished off 42 plate appearances with a splitter, and hitters have posted a .079/.167/.105 slash in those instances. Opposing batters have chased the pitch off the plate at more than a 35% clip, and Hicks boasts a huge 42.9% whiff rate on the pitch, per Statcast.

The big question for Hicks, as it is for virtually any pitcher making this transition, is how his arm will hold up once he begins pushing it into uncharted waters. Hicks has never topped 77 2/3 innings in a big league season. That mark came way back in his 2018 rookie showing. The 105 frames Hicks tallied as a minor league starter in 2017 are the most he’s ever pitched in a full season. He’ll be approaching his MLB-high after he makes another four starts or so and will be on the cusp of a new career-high about 10 to 11 starts from now — when there’s still roughly half a season left to play. Hicks wasn’t even especially durable as a reliever, only surpassing 35 appearances in two of his five prior big league seasons. The early returns are outstanding, but the real test will probably come in late June and into July.

Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, Braves

Unlike Hicks, Lopez is no stranger to starting games at the MLB level. He started 73 games for the White Sox from 2018-20 after coming over from the Nationals alongside Lucas Giolito and Dane Dunning in the Adam Eaton trade. The first of those three seasons went well, but Lopez stumbled in 2019-20 and began to transition to the bullpen in 2021.

The shift to a relief role seemed to suit the right-hander well. His already impressive velocity played up even further. Lopez averaged better than 95 mph as a starter in ’18-’20 but saw that number jump to 97.1 mph in 2022 and a massive 98.4 mph in 2023. Over those two seasons, he pitched to a sharp 3.02 earned run average. His rate stats were somewhat uneven, as he showed pristine command (4.3% walk rate) but an only slightly higher-than-average strikeout rate in ’22 before jumping to a huge 29.9% strikeout rate in ’23 … but pairing it with a bloated 12.2% walk rate. Taken together, however, Lopez gave the Sox 131 1/3 innings with that 3.02 ERA, 31 holds, six saves, a 27.4% strikeout rate and an 8.5% walk rate.

When he signed with the Braves for three years and $30MM, that generally fell in line with expectations for what he’d command as a late-inning reliever. However, it quickly became clear that the Braves were going to stretch Lopez back out. There was plenty of skepticism — myself very much included, admittedly — but the experiment has gone better than anyone could’ve imagined.

Thus far, Lopez has not only been the Braves’ best starter but one of the most effective starters in the league. He’s pitched 35 1/3 innings of 1.53 ERA ball. His velocity has dipped back down to his 2018-20 levels, sitting 95.6 mph, but that’s to be expected working out of the rotation. His 25.5% strikeout rate is better than average but not elite. His 9.9% walk rate could stand to come down. But Lopez is throwing more curveballs than ever before (10%), has largely abandoned his changeup and is keeping the ball on the ground at a career-best 41.1% rate. That’s a bit shy of the 42.8% league average but noticeably higher than the 35% clip he posted during his time with the White Sox.

The uptick in grounders is one reason that Lopez is yielding a career-low 0.51 homers per nine innings. The other is a 5.4% homer-to-flyball rate that he almost certainly can’t sustain. That fluky HR/FB and an abnormally high 88.7% strand rate are part of the reason metrics like SIERA (3.87) and xFIP (3.79), which normalize HR/FB, tend to peg him for some regression. Still, even if he’s bound to see his ERA tick up by a couple runs, Lopez has looked great through his first six turns.

Time will tell just how his arm can handle a return to his 2018-19 workloads, but the early results are excellent — and the importance of his breakout is magnified by the loss of ace Spencer Strider to season-ending elbow surgery. Notably, Lopez exited last night’s start with some tightness in his back, but manager Brian Snitker suggested after the game that he’s likely to make his next start.

A.J. Puk, LHP, Marlins

On the other side of the coin, the Marlins’ efforts to move Puk back into a starting role quickly went down in flames. Puk, a former No. 6 overall pick who worked as a starter in the minors, looked excellent this spring. He pitched 13 2/3 innings over four starts and two earned runs with a 23-to-4 K/BB ratio. The transition could hardly have gotten out to a more promising start.

In his first four regular-season starts, Puk also pitched 13 2/3 innings. The similarities stop there. Opponents bludgeoned Puk for 14 earned runs on 19 hits and a stunning 17 walks. He fanned only 12 of his 77 opponents (15.6%).

Miami placed Puk on the injured list on April 20 due to left shoulder fatigue. He returned from the injured list just yesterday. Despite myriad injuries in their rotation, the Fish have already pulled the plug on the rotation experiment for Puk, announcing that he’ll be back in the bullpen following his stay on the injured list. It’s a role he thrived in over the past two seasons, logging a 3.51 ERA, 29.4% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate while piling up 22 saves and 19 holds.

If Puk returns to form as a reliever — he was particularly impressive in ’23, striking out 32.2% of opponents against a 5.4% walk rate — the ill-fated rotation gambit will be little more than a footnote in what hopefully ends up as a strong overall career as a reliever. If Puk’s struggles persist, however, there’ll be plenty of second-guessing the decision to take one of the team’s best relief arms and stretch him out despite a litany of injury troubles that had combined to limit Puk to only 147 2/3 innings in his entire career prior to this season.

Garrett Crochet, LHP, White Sox

Crochet has worked to a pedestrian earned run average on the season due to a bevy of home runs allowed, but the former first-rounder who’s drawn comparisons to Chris Sale since being drafted by the White Sox has turned in elite strikeout and walk numbers. The 4.63 ERA looks unimpressive, but Crochet has fanned more than a third of his opponents (34.2%) against a pristine 4.8% walk rate.

Crochet boasts an excellent 14.5% swinging-strike rate and is averaging 96.9 mph on his heater. That’s a ways from the 100.2 mph he averaged in six innings as a rookie in 2020, but Crochet has had Tommy John surgery since that time and is working in longer stints now as opposed to bullpen work in ’20. This year’s velocity actually slightly exceeds his average velocity from working purely as a reliever in 2022-23.

In terms of workload concern, Crochet is up there with Puk in terms of extreme uncertainty. He entered the season with a total of 73 big league innings since his No. 11 overall selection in 2020 and is already at 46 2/3 innings on the young 2024 campaign. So long as he keeps missing bats and limiting walks anywhere near his current levels, the run-prevention numbers will come down — FIP and SIERA peg him at 3.33 and 2.37, respectively — but it’s anyone’s guess as to how Crochet will hold up. He skipped the minor leagues entirely, so even if you add in his whole minor league body of work, that’d only tack last year’s 12 1/3 rehab innings onto his track record. Going from a total of 85 1/3 professional innings over a four-year period to a full starter’s workload is bound to have some bumps in the road, but so far Crochet looks quite intriguing as a starting pitcher.

Jose Soriano, RHP, Angels

The Angels nearly lost Soriano back in 2020, when the Pirates selected him in the Rule 5 Draft. At the time, Soriano was wrapping up his rehab from 2020 Tommy John surgery and could’ve been stashed in a rebuilding Pittsburgh bullpen upon his reinstatement from the injured list. A setback in his recovery early in the season prompted another wave of imaging and revealed a new tear, however. Soriano underwent a second Tommy John surgery on June 16, 2021. He was eventually returned to the Angels.

Unfortunate as that back-to-back pair of surgeries was, Soriano’s injury troubles allowed the Angels to keep him in the system. They’re now reaping the benefits. The flamethrowing righty made 38 relief appearances last season and pitched to a quality 3.64 ERA with a huge 30.3% strikeout rate — albeit against a troubling 12.4% walk rate. Soriano averaged 98.6 mph on his heater last year and wound up picking up 15 holds, as the then-rookie righty increasingly worked his way into higher-leverage spots.

The Angels announced early in spring training that Soriano would be stretched out as a starter. His ramp-up continued into the regular season. His first two appearances this year came out of the bullpen but both spanned three innings. He’s since moved into the rotation and has looked quite impressive. Through his first seven starts, Soriano touts a 3.58 ERA with an above-average 24.8% strikeout rate and an outstanding 62.8% ground-ball rate. Even though he’s working in longer stints, he’s improved his fastball and is now sitting at 99.3 mph with it. His 12.4% walk rate still needs improvement, but the returns here are quite promising.

Soriano only pitched 65 1/3 innings between the minors and big leagues last year, and he’s already at 38 2/3 frames on the 2024  season. He’s never pitched more than 82 1/3 innings in a professional season. We’ll see how he fares as he pushes past those thresholds, but there’s a lot to like with this rotation move — even though it’s garnered far less attention than some of the others around the game.

Tyler Alexander, LHP, Rays

The Rays obviously have a knack for finding hidden gems and converting unheralded arms into viable starting pitchers — hey there, Zack Littell — and Alexander is an example of their latest efforts to do so. The left-hander has started for the Tigers in the past and functioned in a swingman role, but the Rays picked him up in a low-cost move following a DFA in Detroit with the idea of stretching him out. Since it’s Tampa Bay, not all of Alexander’s “starts” have been, well, actual starts. He’s followed an opener on multiple occasions already, but he’s followed that one- or two-inning table-setter with at least four innings each time out.

Overall, Alexander has made eight appearances and averaged just under five frames per outing (39 2/3 total innings). He’s sitting on a pretty rough 5.45 ERA, thanks in part to a six-run drubbing at the hands of the Yankees last time out (though he did at least complete seven frames in that start, helping to spare the Tampa Bay bullpen). Alexander’s 19.1% strikeout rate is about three percentage points shy of average. His 6.9% walk rate is about two points better than average. However, he’s taken his longstanding status as a fly-ball pitcher to new heights in 2024, inducing grounders at just a 30.4% clip.

Alexander’s 14.5% homer-to-flyball ratio is only a couple percentage points north of average, but because of the sheer volume of fly-balls he’s yielding, he’s still averaging more than two taters per nine frames. Opponents have posted an ugly 11.8% barrel rate against him (ugly for Alexander, that is). If he can’t cut back on the fly-balls and/or start finding a way to avoid the barrel more regularly, it’s going to be hard for Alexander to find sustained success. The Rays don’t convert on every dart-throw — much as it’s fun to joke to the contrary — and so far the Alexander experiment hasn’t paid off.

Bryse Wilson, RHP, Brewers

Wilson’s move to the rotation wasn’t necessarily planned, but injuries up and down the Brewers’ staff forced the issue. Five of his past six outings have been starts and he’s sporting an eye-catching 1.78 ERA in that span. The rest of the numbers in that stretch are less impressive. Wilson has a tepid 17.3% strikeout rate in that stretch but has walked an untenable 13.5% of opponents. Opponents have posted a hefty 45.7% hard-hit rate (95 mph or more) against him during that time. Were it not for a .191 BABIP and 92.2% strand rate, the ERA wouldn’t look nearly as rosy. Metrics like FIP (4.64) and SIERA (5.34) are quite bearish.

Wilson is still scheduled to take the ball on Saturday in Houston, but his recent stretch of run-prevention doesn’t seem sustainable without some improvements in his K-BB profile.

The Red Sox’ Surprising Rotation Anchors

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The Red Sox are out to a decent start in 2024. Despite dropping five of their last six, they’re above .500 at 19-18. They’re currently in third place in a division where most observers felt they’d finish fourth or fifth. That’s a credit to a pitching staff that leads the majors with a 2.75 earned run average.

Boston’s bullpen looked solid coming into the year, yet the rotation was more of a question mark. It wasn’t that the group was devoid of talent. It was light on pitchers with a proven track record as starters, though, particularly after Lucas Giolito went down for the season in Spring Training. That left the Sox relying on a handful of pitchers who’d been productive as relievers to shoulder important rotation jobs. They’ve delivered thus far, with Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford out to particularly excellent starts.

Houck and Crawford are the only members of Boston’s season-opening rotation who haven’t spent time on the injured list. Garrett Whitlock, Brayan Bello and Nick Pivetta have all missed time. (Pivetta returned on Wednesday and Bello could be back by the weekend.) Houck wasn’t even a lock for the Opening Day starting five until Giolito’s injury. By all accounts, the Sox rotation should have struggled to this point.

Instead, they easily lead the majors with a 2.33 ERA. That’s at least partially a reflection of their usage. Only the White Sox — whose rotation has been one of the league’s worst — have allowed their starters to face an opposing hitter for a third time in an outing less often. Alex Cora is getting to the bullpen early, which takes some of the higher-pressure at-bats off the rotation. Yet that doesn’t entirely detract from how effective Boston’s starters have been.

Crawford, 28, has appeared in parts of four seasons. He held a rotation spot from June onward last year, turning in solid if unexciting results. Over 23 starts, he worked to a 4.51 ERA with an above-average 26.2% strikeout rate. It was enough for the Sox to guarantee him a rotation spot even when they expected Giolito would be healthy. He went into 2024 with a season-opening starting job for the first time in his career.

The right-hander has doubled down on last year’s success. Through eight starts, he carries a 1.75 ERA that ranks seventh among qualified starters. He has fanned 24.3% of opponents and is generating swinging strikes at a solid 12.3% clip. Crawford has held opponents to two or fewer runs in seven of his appearances.

Crawford probably isn’t an ace. He’s not missing bats at the level associated with the game’s truly elite pitchers. He’s a fly-ball pitcher who’ll surely allow a few more home runs over the course of the year. Crawford looks like a legitimate mid-rotation arm, though. He’s attacking hitters with more offspeed stuff — part of a team-wide philosophical shift under new pitching coach Andrew Bailey — and has done an excellent job staying off barrels. That’s true against left-handed and righty batters alike, making it difficult for opponents to play matchups and allowing him to at least work through the batting order twice in a start.

That has also been true for Houck, at least this season. Concerns about the right-hander’s low arm angle and heavy reliance on a sinker/slider combination have led some evaluators to project him to the bullpen going back to his college days in Missouri. It’s difficult to avoid huge platoon splits with that kind of profile. Left-handed batters can identify the ball early in his delivery. For most of his career, Houck hasn’t had a pitch to keep opposing southpaws at bay.

Houck kicked between starting and relief over his first three-plus seasons. He worked out of the rotation for all 21 of his appearances last year but struggled to a 5.01 ERA. Handling left-handed hitters was indeed an issue. Through the end of the 2023 season, Houck stifled righties to a .214/.282/.283 batting line behind a 27.4% strikeout rate. Lefty batters turned in a much more productive .251/.343/.420 slash while striking out 22% of the time. Lefties drew more walks and hit for much more power against him.

That hasn’t been the case this season. While Houck has still been better against right-handed hitters in 2024, that’s more a reflection of his dominance against everyone than any kind of issue handling southpaws. Houck is holding left-handers to a .227/.279/.258 slash in 104 plate appearances. His 21.2% strikeout rate isn’t great, but he has more than halved his walks and pushed his ground-ball percentage north of 60%. Even if they’re still putting the ball in play at a decent clip, lefty batters aren’t doing any kind of damage. (Houck has completely befuddled right-handed opponents, limiting them to a .203/.234/.284 mark behind a huge 31.2% strikeout rate.)

As is the case with Crawford, Houck has found that new level by moving away from his heater. Houck has essentially doubled the usage of his splitter against left-handed batters while scaling back on his fastball and cutter. The split isn’t a new pitch — he has had it throughout his career — but he’s getting more downward action on it. The uptick in its deployment suggests Houck is far more comfortable with the pitch than he’d been before this year.

Whether Crawford and Houck can maintain an upper mid-rotation pace or better over a full schedule remains to be seen. Neither pitcher has yet reached 130 major league innings in a season. Opposing lineups will adjust to their heavier reliance on offspeed stuff, and league-wide offense generally improves as the weather warms. They’ve each been among the best pitchers in the majors through six weeks, though. These kinds of breakouts are necessary for a team to outperform expectations and stick in the playoff mix against the odds.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

The Hot Start Of Trevor Williams Raises Interesting Questions

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Coming into 2024, Trevor Williams was something of an afterthought on the Nationals’ roster. But six weeks into the 2024 season, he has emerged as one of the more interesting members of the club, thanks to his utter dominance so far this year.

Entering the campaign, most baseball fans outside of the D.C. area probably weren’t thinking of Williams at all. Fans of the Nats were probably more excited about young players like MacKenzie Gore, James Wood or Dylan Crews. Williams was a veteran stopgap who didn’t draw much attention. He had some serviceable years in the past but struggled over 2019 and 2020, getting bumped into a swing role in 2021 and 2022.

The rebuilding Nationals signed him to a two-year deal going into 2023 with a $13MM guarantee. They had traded away many of their most established players and needed a veteran innings eater. Patrick Corbin’s contract was aging incredibly poorly while young guys like Gore, Josiah Gray and Cade Cavalli had not yet been fully established at the big league level.

The first year of the Williams deal was quite unremarkable. He did take the ball 30 times and chew up 144 1/3 innings, but with a 5.55 earned run average. His 8% walk rate was around league average but he struck out just 16.8% of batters faced and allowed 34 home runs.

After that performance, he didn’t even seem to be guaranteed a rotation spot on the 2024 club. Back in December, manager Dave Martinez said that Williams “right now is our fourth or fifth starter,” per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. That seemed to leave the door open to further additions bumping him out of the starting staff, but those never came. The Nats had a fairly quiet winter, which left Williams to open in the rotation alongside Gore, Gray, Corbin and Jake Irvin.

So far, that’s working out great for both Williams and the Nats. Through seven starts and 36 2/3 innings, he has just a 1.96 ERA. His 21.1% strikeout rate is still a bit below average but is a big jump from last year. He’s getting ground balls at a 49% rate and hasn’t yet allowed a home run this season.

There are some caveats to keep in mind here. Seven starts is obviously a small sample size and it’s incredibly unlikely he can continue posting results this strong. His .270 batting average on balls in play and 79.5% strand rate are both a bit on the fortunate side, as his his 0% home run per fly ball rate. His 2.50 FIP and 4.04 SIERA both suggest he hasn’t been quite as good as the 1.96 ERA might make you think.

Perhaps this is just a lucky stretch and regression is just around the corner. This kind of strong performance in a small sample isn’t unprecedented with Williams. Using the Baseball Reference Span Finder shows that his most dominant stretch of seven starts came with the Pirates in 2018. He finished that season particularly strong, with a 2.33 ERA in July, 1.16 in August and then 2.20 in September/October.

But there are also reasons for optimism, particularly since Williams changed his pitch mix by adding a sweeper. According to Statcast, he first threw the pitch last year but only 73 times, 2.8% of his pitches thrown with five other offerings coming in more frequently. But he’s up to 101 sweepers this year, a 17.9% clip. His four-seamer is still his go-to at 205 thrown, but the changeup is second at 103, meaning the sweeper is neck-and-neck with the change for his primary offspeed offering.

The results have been excellent so far, with opponents hitting just .167 against the sweeper and whiffing at a huge 41.2% rate. Even the Pitching Ninja is taking notice. By throwing more sweepers, he’s been able to threw fewer four-seamers and curveballs. As mentioned, the four-seamer is still is primary pitch, but he’s dropped the usage from 43.2% to 36.4%, while his curveball has gone from 6.9% down to just 0.5% this year. Of the 34 home runs he allowed last year, 21 of them were four-seamers and three more were curveballs, leading to respective slugging percentages of .563 and .629. Throwing them less was surely wise and has been paying off.

Changing up the mix seems to be throwing hitters off. Williams had a 10.2% barrel rate last year that is down to just 4% here in 2024. Last year’s average launch angle of 15.9 degrees is down to 11.5, which aligns with his increased ground ball rate and his refusal to let the ball leave the park. His results on his changeup and sinker have also been better than last year, perhaps due to the sweeper giving hitters something else to think about.

Again, regression is likely coming because he’s had a bit of luck so far. The league will also surely adjust to his new repertoire, which should lessen his ability to flummox batters with his arsenal. But even if he steps back from this ace-like performance a bit, it could still have impacts for him and the club.

Williams will be heading back out to free agency this winter and improved numbers will naturally lead to more interest and more earning power. His contract will be limited by his age, since he’ll be going into his age-33 season. But pitchers can still find decent money at that age or older, as shown in the MLBTR Contract Tracker.

Williams won’t be able to get near established aces like Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander. But Seth Lugo’s trajectory isn’t terribly dissimilar from that of Williams. Lugo was bumped from starting into a relief role for a while, spent a year with the Padres re-establishing himself as a legit starter and then secured a three-year, $45MM deal with the Royals going into his age-34 season. Tyler Anderson got a three-year, $39MM pact after a breakout in his age-32 campaign while guys like Marcus Stroman, Nathan Eovaldi, Jose Quintana, Nick Martinez, Ross Stripling, Kenta Maeda and Alex Cobb secured two-year deals between $20MM and $37MM.

Of that group, only Anderson and Eovaldi received qualifying offers. Stroman and Cobb received QOs earlier their careers and were no longer eligible, and Quintana wasn’t eligible prior to signing his Mets deal since he was traded in the prior season. But Lugo, Martinez, Stripling and Maeda were allowed to hit free agency without a QO. That perhaps suggests Williams is a long shot to get one himself, even if he continues putting up good numbers, but Anderson’s situation shows it’s at least something the Nats may consider. Anderson had a 4.62 career ERA before breaking out with the Dodgers in 2022. He posted a 2.57 ERA, got the QO and still found his aforementioned three-year deal from the Angels, netting the Dodgers an extra draft pick.

Putting over $20MM on the table for a guy they just signed to $13MM over two years, a deal they undoubtedly regretted halfway through, would be a big risk for the Nats. But they also have almost nothing on the books thanks to their ongoing rebuild. Corbin’s ill-fated deal is finally done after 2024 and Strasburg’s retirement allowed the club to pay out the remainder of his deal with deferred payments. Joey Gallo’s deal has a buyout on a mutual option. Keibert Ruiz signed an eight-year extension with a low average annual value, and that’s it in terms of future commitments.

Of course, the qualifying offer decision will only have to be made if he lasts all year with Washington. The club is currently 18-18 and still in the thick of the National League Wild Card standings, but the Nats have a -8 run differential and are just 5-9 against teams that are above .500. Based on their poor results in past seasons and the fact that they weren’t really expected to compete this year, it’s entirely possible that they slip back in the coming months.

If that happens, then it’s far more likely that the Nats simply trade Williams for whatever he can fetch at the deadline. The return likely wouldn’t be huge for a 32-year-old rental, but pitching is always in demand and he will find interest if he continues pitching well. That scenario would be good for Williams, allowing him to pitch for a team in contention while also taking the QO off the table.

There are still many ways this could play out and many factors that will play a role in the path forward. Can Williams keep this up or will the league adjust? Will the warm summer air simply allow more balls to cruise over the fence? Will the Nats hover around the Wild Card race or will they fall out of it? Time will provide the answers to those questions, but the fact that Williams is even this interesting is quite remarkable, considering where things stood about six months ago.

The Rays Did It Again

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Unless you're brand new to baseball fandom -- and if that's the case, welcome! -- you know by now that few teams around the sport have managed to maximize player performance like the Rays. It's become a point of consternation among fans of other clubs and an oft-memed joke on social media, but the Rays have a knack for unearthing hidden gems like practically no other club in the game. In recent seasons, they've turned low-profile pickups of Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Yarbrough and Collin McHugh into high-end performances. They've signed mid-range free agents like Zach Eflin and Charlie Morton and coaxed borderline ace-level performance from them. They've bought low on former top prospects like Tyler Glasnow and struck gold.

That doesn't even factor in buy-low pickups of position players like Isaac Paredes, Randy Arozarena, Harold Ramirez, Jose Siri and others. The Rays may have dropped "Devil" from their name back in 2007, but there are plenty of fans who still lament the Rays' devil magic, which has propelled the team to near-perennial contention despite consistent bottom-of-the-league payrolls.

And if you haven't been paying attention over the past calendar year -- they've done it again.

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Jack Flaherty’s Strong Start To A Hopeful Rebound Year

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Jack Flaherty was one of the more interesting mid-level starting pitchers in last year’s free agent class. The righty was arguably the best pitcher in MLB in the second half of 2019, but he didn’t cement himself as an ace in the following few seasons. He struggled in nine starts during the shortened season. Oblique and shoulder injuries cost him good chunks of the 2021 and ’22 campaigns, respectively. Flaherty stayed healthy for his walk year but allowed nearly five earned runs per nine between the Cardinals and Orioles.

That left both his camp and interested teams with questions once he hit the market. Was Flaherty still an upside play who had a realistic chance to turn in top-of-the-rotation results? If he felt that way, would he be best served taking a one-year deal and retesting the market next year? At 28, Flaherty was one of the youngest free agents of note. He ultimately chose the one-year route, signing a $14MM guarantee with the Tigers that contained another $1MM in performance bonuses.

It’s far too early to definitively declare the move a success, but his first month in Detroit has gone better than expected. Flaherty’s even 4.00 earned run average through 36 innings isn’t especially noteworthy. Yet he leads the American League with 50 strikeouts and has only issued five walks. His 16.4% swinging strike percentage would easily be a career high. It’s nearly six points up from last season.

Among pitchers with 30+ innings, only Freddy Peralta has a higher strikeout rate than Flaherty’s 34%. Jared Jones is the only pitcher getting more whiffs on a per-pitch basis. Flaherty is coming off a career-high 14 strikeouts in Tuesday’s matchup against his old teammates with St. Louis.

There’s only so much a player can prove in a six-game sample, but Flaherty hasn’t missed bats at anything close to this level in five years. Using the Baseball Reference Span Finder, we see that Flaherty hadn’t recorded more than 40 strikeouts in a six-game stretch at any point since his dazzling finish in 2019. While the ERA hasn’t caught up, Flaherty is dominating the strike zone in a way that he hasn’t for some time.

Flaherty’s stuff has ticked up slightly in the early going. His fastball is averaging 93.8 MPH, around half a mile per hour above where it sat in the previous two seasons. Perhaps more impactful has been the increased effectiveness of his breaking stuff. Flaherty’s best pitch, his slider, is missing bats at a high level after it waned in 2022-23. Opponents have come up empty half the time they’ve offered at his curveball. Flaherty is attacking hitters, particularly left-handers, with the breaking pitches a little more frequently than he has in previous seasons.

There’s a long way to go before he puts the questions about his 2021-23 performance behind him completely. As the season progresses, he’ll face tougher opposition than he has gotten thus far. Of his six starts, four have come against teams (the White Sox, A’s, Rays and Cardinals) that have been subpar offensively. Only his two starts against the Twins have been against a club with an above-average team batting line. While Minnesota has been solid overall, they’re a high-strikeout offense.

Yet if Flaherty stays healthy and continues to overpower opponents at anything close to this level, he’ll be in line for a much more lucrative free agent trip. He’ll play all of next season at 29, which is still atypically young for a free agent starter. He’d be a clear qualifying offer candidate (assuming the Tigers stay in the postseason mix and don’t trade him at the deadline), but he shouldn’t have much issue turning that down and landing a better multi-year pact.

Next winter’s class has a lot of high-variance but intriguing starters who could dramatically improve their stock in the next five months (i.e. Luis Severino, Walker Buehler, Frankie Montas, Blake Snell). Flaherty has a legitimate path to the top of that group, which could make him the #3 pitcher available behind Corbin Burnes and Max Fried.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Who Could The Angels Trade This Summer?

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The Angels came into 2024 hoping to compete, despite losing Shohei Ohtani to free agency, but it’s not going well so far. It’s usually unwise to pour dirt on a club’s grave so early in the season, but the odds were against them even before the 2024 campaign started. They have piled up a few losses while Mike Trout is once again facing a significant absence, narrowing whatever contention window they had.

The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs gave them a 16.9% chance of making the playoffs prior to any games being played. Now that the club is 11-20 and Trout is set to miss weeks due to surgery to repair a torn meniscus, those odds have slimmed. As of this morning, their chances of cracking the postseason are down to 2.6%. The PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are even more pessimistic, giving the Halos just a 0.3% shot.

Barring a miracle in the next few months, they are going to be deadline sellers in the months to come. There could be some speculation about Trout being available, but that’s a complicated situation. He has full no-trade protection and has said he wants to stay in Anaheim. Even if he changes his mind and wants out, facilitating a deal won’t be easy. Despite his immense talents, he actually has negative trade value right now. He is about to turn 33 years old, is making $35.45MM annually through 2030 and has frequently been injured in recent years.

The Angels would be in a tough spot, as they would likely want some notable prospect return in trading a face-of-the-franchise player like Trout, but they would have to swallow a significant portion of the deal to make that happen. On top of that, Trout’s no-trade clause means they would have to factor in his preferences, perhaps narrowing their options and reducing their leverage. Given how convoluted the factors are, a Trout trade isn’t likely to come together hastily, especially since he’s currently hurt.

On top of Trout, there are others who aren’t likely to be moved. Anthony Rendon has a massive salary and hasn’t been healthy in years. Robert Stephenson recently underwent Tommy John surgery and is out until the middle of next year, at least. Players like Logan O’Hoppe, Zach Neto and Nolan Schanuel are still in their pre-arbitration years, giving the club little reason to move them.

But that still leaves them with quite a few options that could hold appeal around the league:

Luis Rengifo

Rengifo is currently hitting .326/.376/.465 this year for a 142 wRC+. That’s at least partly a mirage because he won’t be able to sustain a .377 batting average on balls in play all season. But even with a bit of regression, he’d be on track for his third straight year of above-average offense. He hit a combined .264/.315/.436 over 2022 and 2023, with a 103 wRC+ in the first of those two seasons and a 114 wRC+ last year.

Defensively, Rengifo can play all over the diamond. He has spent time at the three infield positions to the left of first base, as well as all three outfield slots. He’s not considered especially strong at any one spot, but the ability to move around will help him fit in with other clubs. The fact that he’s a switch-hitter gives him extra versatility.

Financially, Rengifo is making just $4.4MM this year and can be controlled via arbitration for next year as well. Even if a club has financial concerns due to the competitive balance tax or lack of TV revenue, he won’t break the bank.

Carlos Estévez

Estévez is out to a rough start this year with a 6.23 ERA, but the numbers are good just about everywhere else. He is striking out 29.4% of batters faced on the year and hasn’t yet issued a walk. The runs are scoring at least partially due to a tiny strand rate of 48.4%. His 3.83 FIP and 2.70 SIERA point to him being the same lockdown reliever he has been in previous years.

The righty has a 4.51 career ERA but spent his entire career in Colorado until last year. He secured a two-year, $13.5MM deal with the Angels going into 2023. His first season in Anaheim saw him rack up 31 saves while punching out 27.8% of opponents, though walking 11% of them. He should be one of the better rental relievers available this summer. He’s making a salary of $6.75MM this year.

Tyler Anderson

Anderson’s up-and-down career is in a bit of an upswing right now, at least in terms of results. Through six starts this year, he has a 2.23 earned run average. But with a .194 BABIP and 90.9% strand rate, he likely won’t be able to keep that up. His 4.76 FIP and 4.80 SIERA suggest regression is coming, as his 18.5% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate are both subpar.

The lefty secured a three-year, $39MM deal with the Halos going into 2023. He had a 4.62 ERA through 2021 but then posted a 2.57 ERA with the Dodgers in 2022. That led to his deal with the Angels, but he regressed immediately with a 5.43 ERA last year. Though his results will likely dip a bit as the year goes on, pitching is always in demand at the deadline and the Angels could be able to eat some of his salary to get a deal done. His contract pays him $13MM annually and runs through the end of 2025.

Griffin Canning

Health has been the big question mark for Canning, but he showed positive development in that department last year. He missed the 2022 season entirely but then appeared in 24 games in 2023 — 22 of them starts — while logging 127 innings. All of those figures were career-highs. Beyond the quantity, the quality was also encouraging. He had a 4.32 ERA on the year with a 25.9% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate.

Unfortunately, things have backed up in 2024. Through six starts, he has struck out just 15.9% of opponents while walking 9.1%, leading to a 7.45 ERA. A 56.1% strand rate isn’t helping him, but even his 5.48 FIP and 4.96 SIERA aren’t amazing. He’ll have to get things back on track in the months to come but would have some appeal if he did. Because of the missed injury time, he’s making a modest $2.6MM salary this year and has one more arbitration season remaining in 2025.

Patrick Sandoval

Sandoval’s ERA is up at 5.91 this year, but the numbers under the hood are more encouraging. His 10.8% walk rate is a bit high, but he’s striking out 25.7% of batters faced and getting grounders on 47.3% of balls in play. Were it not for a .396 BABIP and 57.5% strand rate, he’d be in better shape, which is why he has a 3.17 FIP and 3.83 SIERA.

He’s a bit less of an obvious trade candidate since he’s controlled through 2026. He’s making $5.025MM this year and will have two more arb seasons before he’s slated for free agency. The Halos could hold him if they think they can compete again in that window, but his trade value will only decline going forward as his control window shrinks and his salary keeps rising.

Taylor Ward

Ward is in the same service bucket as Sandoval, meaning he has two years of control beyond this one. He’s had a bit of a stop-and-go career due to injuries but is often in good form when healthy. He already has seven home runs this year and is slashing .278/.313/.492 with a 126 wRC+. Going back to the start of 2021, he’s hit .267/.343/.453 for a 122 wRC+.

Similar to Sandoval, the Halos don’t have to move Ward, but there’s an argument for it. He’s making $4.8MM this year and will be in line for a healthy raise if he keeps hitting homers. Since his health has been so mercurial, they might be tempted to strike while the iron is hot, cashing him in for younger players if he stays healthy through July.

Matt Moore

Moore is continuing to enjoy a nice second act to his career after moving from the rotation to the bullpen. Since the start of 2022, he’s made 125 appearances with a 2.35 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate, 9.8% walk rate and 40% ground ball rate.

His strikeout rate has dipped to 21.3% this year, but in a small sample of 12 appearances. His 3.97 ERA is more passable than it is exciting and he’s making $9MM on the year. But every contender is looking for bullpen upgrades at the deadline and Moore will have suitors, especially since he’s left-handed.

Brandon Drury

Drury parlayed a 28-homer breakout in 2022 into a two-year, $17MM deal to suit up for the team he grew up cheering for. The first season went well, as he launched another 26 home runs last year while bouncing between multiple positions, but he’s out to a dreadful start here in 2024. He has battled some hamstring tightness and migraines while hitting just .176/.245/.235.

Those nagging injuries are surely playing a part in his struggles, as is a .209 BABIP. He could be due for a turnaround if his health and batted-ball fortune both improve. If that comes to pass, he could fit on multiple clubs around the league. He has played all four infield positions and the outfield corners in his career, so various teams could find a way to squeeze him in.

Luis García

Somewhat similar to Estévez, García is allowing more runs than he seemingly deserves. He has struck out 28.3% of opponents this year while walking just 5.7% and keeping 54.3% of balls in play on the ground, leading to a 2.52 FIP and 2.38 SIERA. But a strand rate of just 39.7% has helped push some runners across the plate, leading to a 5.54 ERA.

He’s a 37-year-old veteran and won’t fetch a huge return, but each contender needs bullpen help. He’s making just $4.25MM on a one-year deal and has a decent track record. Since the start of 2021, he has a 3.77 ERA, 23.8% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 55% ground ball rate.

Adam Cimber

Cimber had a pretty solid run in 2021 and 2022, pitching over 70 innings in each of those seasons with a combined ERA of 2.53. He only struck out 18.8% of batters faced in that time, but he only walked 5% of them while his submarine delivery helped him produce a 47.9% ground ball rate and lots of weak contact.

He was hurt for a lot of 2023 and his ERA shot up to 7.40 when he was on the mound. The Angels took a shot on a bounceback which has mostly gone well so far, as Cimber has a 3.14 ERA this year. His 11.1% walk rate is uncharacteristically high, as he’s never finished a season above 7.8% in that department. If he can shake off the rust and rein in his control, perhaps he’ll be back in 2021-22 form in the months to come. He’s making just $1.65MM this year and could fit in the budget of any club.

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The Angels could also push further, depending on what their long-term plans are. Reid Detmers and Jo Adell haven’t yet reached arbitration yet, but they will this coming winter. Adell has struggled so much over the years but is in good form so far this year, which may tempt the Angels to listen to offers on him now in case he turns into a pumpkin. He’s slashing .290/.338/.565 for a 152 wRC+, with his 26.5% strikeout rate a big improvement compared to previous years.

Parting with Detmers could be painful since he seems to be breaking out this year. He has a 3.12 ERA, 26.6% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate and 44% ground ball rate. With three more years of control beyond this one, there’s no rush to move him. But if the club is planning a significant rebuild, those years might be wasted in Anaheim. If they decide to pull the trigger, he would fetch a haul.

The Twins’ Quietly Elite Catcher

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For years in Minnesota, the catching position was the strongest on the roster. Hometown kid and former No. 1 overall pick Joe Mauer went from ballyhooed prospect to three-time batting champion and 2009 American League MVP. He solidified the spot for a decade, hitting .323/.405/.469 in more than 5000 plate appearances from 2004-13.

When concussions forced Mauer over to first base, the Twins turned things over to a series of veterans as they struggled to develop an in-house replacement. Kurt Suzuki and Jason Castro both inked multi-year deals to serve as the starting catcher in Minnesota. Those contracts actually panned out reasonably well; Suzuki hit .263/.316/.364 in three seasons and made the 2014 All-Star team. Castro hit .229/.325/.390 in his three seasons and provided elite defense. Along the way, the Twins succeeded in developing one high-end offensive catcher — Mitch Garver — but struggled to keep him healthy. Garver was eventually traded to the Rangers for Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Ronny Henriquez. Kiner-Falefa was then immediately flipped to the Yankees alongside Josh Donaldson in a swap that netted the Twins Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela (while shedding the remainder of Donaldson’s $92MM contract).

Somewhat lost in the shuffle during that catching carousel was 2018 second-rounder Ryan Jeffers. The UNC-Wilmington product had a nice debut showing in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, slashing .273/.355/.436 in a small sample of 62 plate appearances. Jeffers, however, fanned in more than 30% of his plate appearances that year and experienced even more pronounced contact issues in the two subsequent seasons.

From 2021-22, he hit just .203/.277/.384 with a 32.4% strikeout rate. The power was apparent (21 homers, .182 ISO in 529 plate appearances), but Jeffers’ contact issues rendered him a well below-average hitter. The Twins, in win-now mode after a strong 2022 campaign, signed veteran Christian Vazquez to a three-year, $30MM deal that generally aligned with market expectations.

Heading into the 2023 season, Jeffers wasn’t relegated to a traditional backup role, but there was a clear expectation that he and Vazquez would be in a timeshare behind the plate — likely with the defensively superior Vazquez handling a bit more of the workload. Through the season’s first few months, that’s precisely how things played out, too. Vazquez received 202 first-half plate appearances to Jeffers’ 157. Vazquez provided his typical brand of elite defense but hit just .210/.287/.265 in that time. Jeffers, on the other hand, hit .256/.357/.421 — numbers more in line with his intriguing rookie showing from 2020.

Following the All-Star break, the balance of playing time tilted in the other direction. It was Jeffers who found his name called more often, picking up 178 plate appearances to Vazquez’s 153. While Vazquez improved a bit offensively in the season’s second half, Jeffers saw his production soar to heights not seen by a Minnesota catcher in years. In the final two-plus months of the season, the 26-year-old mashed at a .294/.379/.549 clip and belted 10 homers. By measure of wRC+, that was 54% better than the league-average hitter. And considering catchers tend to be about 12% worse than the average hitter, Jeffers’ breakout was all the more eye-catching.

It didn’t appear to be simple small-sample noise, either. Jeffers made notable gains in his contact ability, fanning at a reduced (but still higher-than-average) 26.4% clip post-break last season. That includes a strikeout rate of just 17.1% in the season’s final month. While he didn’t suddenly reduce his chase rate on pitches off the plate, Jeffers took a noticeably more aggressive approach overall and seemed to benefit from it. His 50.3% overall swing rate in September was markedly higher than the 43.7% of pitches at which he’d offered in the five months prior. He’d previously made contact on 57.5% of his chases off the plate and 82.2% of his swings within the strike zone; those jumped to 71.4% and 87.8%, respectively, in the final month of play.

We’re now five weeks into the 2024 season, and Jeffers has picked up right where he left off last September. He’s hitting .300/.393/.556 on the season and has already popped five homers in his 107 plate appearances. His 16.8% strikeout rate is an easy career-low. The more aggressive approach he showed late last year remains in place, as he’s swinging at a 47.4% clip with better contact off the plate and within the zone that he’d shown prior to last September.

Jeffers has made himself veritably indispensable in the Twins’ lineup. He’s appeared in 27 of their 30 games: 14 at catcher and 11 at designated hitter. Manager Rocco Baldelli has begun to bat Jeffers in the top-third of his lineup with regularity. Seventy percent of his plate appearances have come while batting first, second or third this year. Jeffers has long pounded left-handed pitching (career .267/.362/.487), but he’s now hitting .285/.368/.489 against righties dating back to Opening Day 2023 — a wild improvement over the .185/.256/.361 slash he posted versus righties from 2020-22.

And, for all the talk about Vazquez’s defense earlier, it should be noted that Jeffers is hardly a slouch himself in that regard. Statcast was down on his ability to block balls in the dirt last season (five blocks below average), but Jeffers has routinely drawn positive overall grades from Defensive Runs Saved. He’s been better than average in that regard in each other season of his big league career, however, and Jeffers has been an average or better pitch framer in his career as a whole, per both FanGraphs and Statcast. He has a slightly below-average caught-stealing rate in his career, but much of that stems from an ugly 13% caught-stealing rate as a rookie. Jeffers nabbed 25% of thieves in 2023 (league-average was 21%) and is 1-for-5 in 2024 (23% is league-average).

Since last season, there are 75 big league catchers who’ve tallied at least 100 plate appearances. Jeffers’ 146 wRC+ leads the pack by a massive margin; the Contreras brothers check in at 133 (William Contreras) and 132 (Willson Contreras) and stand as the No. 2 and 3 entrants on that list. Yes, it’s still only a sample of 442 plate appearances for Jeffers, but he’s been far and away the best-hitting catcher in the majors going back to last year, quietly topping stars like Will Smith, Adley Rutschman, Sean Murphy and the Contreras brothers on a per-plate-appearance basis. Granted, Jeffers isn’t going to top WAR leaderboards because of his more even timeshare with Vazquez and lesser defensive skills to names like Murphy, Rutschman, Patrick Bailey and others — but he’s nevertheless stepped out as one the game’s premier hitters at his position.

Perhaps the Vazquez addition took some pressure off Jeffers, but the breakout at the plate and the Twins’ efforts to scale back payroll this past offseason do combine to make that signing look superfluous. Vazquez is a flat-out elite defender, but he’s hitting .222/.273/.309 in 421 plate appearances as a Twin. For a team that was up against some pretty noticeable payroll constraints from ownership in the offseason, that $10MM-per-year salary could certainly be allocated in a more efficient way.

That’s not to disparage Vazquez; had Twins ownership merely allowed the front office to maintain last year’s roughly $155MM payroll, his salary wouldn’t even be all that cumbersome to manage — and there’s surely intangible benefit to him working with Jeffers and with the team’s pitching staff. Still, the Twins spent relatively heavily to install a starting-caliber option behind the dish, only to see one of their young, in-house options emerge as the cornerstone backstop they’d been seeking all along.

Jeffers remains highly affordable for the Twins, earning just $2.425MM this season in his first trip through arbitration. He’s well on his way to earning a major raise on top of that salary if he can continue to hit as he has going back to Opening Day 2023. He’ll be arb-eligible twice more and is controllable through the 2026 season. As a Boras Corporation client, Jeffers doesn’t stand out as the likeliest candidate to sign a long-term deal, but it’s hard to imagine the Twins wouldn’t be interested in hammering out some kind of deal to keep him in Minneapolis longer than he’s currently slated to stay.

Willy Adames Is Putting 2023 Behind Him

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Brewers shortstop Willy Adames had a down year in 2023, relative to his own standards. But here in the early parts of the 2024 season, he’s looked more like the pre-2023 version of himself. Even better than that, in fact.

Adames has been fairly consistent in being above average at the plate. That has been mostly due to his power output and in spite of some high strikeout totals. He also steals a few bases and has been considered strong on defense at a premium position. The glovework was a bit more contested earlier in his career but the praise has become more unanimous over time.

He debuted with the Rays in 2018, getting into 85 games that year. He struck out in 29.4% of his plate appearances but also launched 10 home runs in that time. His .278/.348/.406 batting line translated to a 110 wRC+, indicating he was 10% above league average.

In his first full season in 2019, he got into 152 games and doubled his home run total to 20. However, since that was the “juiced ball” season and the grading curve was thrown off, he was actually considered slightly below average with a 99 wRC+. In the small sample of the shortened 2020 season, he hit another eight homers and slashed .259 .332 .481 for a wRC+ of 126. The next two full seasons saw him continue to strike out a decent amount, but with home run tallies of 25 and 31, leading to a wRC+ of 120 and 109 in those campaigns. He spent most of those two years with the Brewers after being traded early in the 2021 season.

As mentioned up top, there was a dip in 2023, which looks like it may have been mostly about luck. His 11.1% walk rate was actually a career high and his 25.9% strikeout rate was a career low. The 24 home runs were a tad lower than the previous two seasons, but not by much. But when the ball didn’t go over the fence, his batting average was just .259. That was almost 40 points below last year’s .297 league-wide batting average on balls in play and below his career rate of .311. He finished the year with a line of .217/.310/.407 and a 94 wRC+.

That may not have been entirely bad fortune, as his batted ball metrics also dipped alongside his results. His average exit velocity was 87.4 miles per hour last year, whereas he was between 88.5 and 89.5 in the previous four campaigns. His 36.5% hard hit rate was also down, as he finished between 40.5% and 44.7% in the three prior years.

Perhaps the lack of zip partially explains why he was finding so many gloves last year, but he’s had no such problems here in 2024. Through his first 30 games this year, he has a .313 BABIP, a huge turnaround from last year and right in line with his career mark. His average exit velocity is back up, currently at 89.5 miles per hour for the year. His hard hit rate has also recovered, currently at 42.7% this season. He already has six home runs while his 12.7% walk rate and 20.1% strikeout rate are both career bests. His .278/.373/.496 batting line translates to a huge 147 wRC+.

Although the Statcast metrics somewhat supported his decline in results last year, the 2023 season looks like a clear outlier compared to the rest of his career. Perhaps Adames was playing through some kind of injury that was tugging him down last year. He was struck in the head by a foul ball in the dugout in late May and went on the concussion-related injured list, returning a week later. He was hitting just .205/.292/.384 before that injury, however, with a .234 BABIP. After his return, his BABIP crept up to .274 as he slashed .223/.318/.418 the rest of the way.

Regardless of the cause, the 2023 dip seems to be in the rear-view mirror now. His Statcast metrics are back to pre-2023 levels and his overall results have been even better, particularly with that improved plate discipline. Even if he doesn’t maintain this excellent form all the way through the end of the year, a bounceback at the plate should set him up nicely as he heads into free agency this winter.

In terms of his glovework, Defensive Runs Saved is a long-time fan. That metric gave Adames a -8 in his rookie debut but has been in positive territory in each season since. Outs Above Average took longer to come around, giving Adames a negative grade in three of four years from 2018 to 2021. But he was given grades of +10 and +16 in the last two campaigns, with a mark of +4 already here this year. His +29 OAA since the start of 2022 is second among all big league shortstops, trailing only Dansby Swanson. His 17 DRS in that time is fourth in the league among shortstops.

Adames has roughly average sprint speed but can steal a few bases, as mentioned. He has between four and eight steals in each full season of his career, with four already in the early parts of this year.

He also has a strong track record in terms of health. He had the aforementioned stint on the concussion IL last year, and previously missed about three weeks due to a high left ankle sprain in 2022 and about two weeks in 2021 due to a left quad strain, but that’s it. Apart from his rookie season, when he was frequently optioned to the minors, he’s never played less than 139 games in a full season.

All of these ingredients should come together nicely for Adames this winter. The most recent offseason was icy for the players and it’s hard to know how much to reset expectations because of it, but everyday shortstops tend to get paid. Since the end of the 2021 season, nine different nine-figure contracts have been given to free agent shortstops. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows three for players going into their age-29 seasons:

Adames is going to be the same age as the Swanson-Báez-Story trio, heading into his age-29 season, but could potentially be in a better position than any of that three. Story had shown tremendous upside but limped into free agency with a 98 wRC+ in his walk year and concerns around his throwing elbow. Swanson had an excellent defensive reputation but inconsistent offense, with just two full seasons where his wRC+ was above average. Báez also had fluctuating offense and mounting strikeout concerns, getting punched out at a 33.6% clip in his walk year.

The Brewers were surely give Adames a qualifying offer at season’s end, which he will reject. Báez was spared a QO since he was traded midseason but Swanson and Story each rejected QOs and were therefore tied to the associated penalties.

Adames may not be an MVP candidate. In fact, he’s bizarrely never even been an All-Star. But there’s a steadiness to his production. He’s never had more than 4.4 wins above replacement in a season, per FanGraphs, but he’s also been worth at least 3.1 fWAR in each full season. He’s already at 1.7 fWAR here in 2024.

As we saw in the most recent winter, the market can be affected by things beyond a player’s control, such as TV rights deals and luxury tax calculations. But Adames is currently doing everything in his power to set himself up well for the upcoming offseason. The longer he keeps it up, the more he will make 2023 look like a distant memory.

Seven Veterans With Opt-Out Opportunities Tomorrow

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As part of the 2022 collective bargaining agreement, MLB and the Players Association agreed to a few automatic opt-out dates for some veteran players on minor league contracts. Article XX(B) free agents — generally, players with over six years of MLB service who finished the preceding season on a big league roster — who sign minor league contracts more than ten days before Opening Day receive three uniform chances to retest free agency if they’re not promoted.

The first comes five days before the start of the season. For players who pass on that initial opt-out, they have additional windows to explore the open market on both May 1 and June 1 if they’ve yet to secure a spot on the 40-man roster. There were 31 players who initially had that option in Spring Training.

Eleven of them — Carlos Carrasco, Garrett Cooper, Chase Anderson, Tyler Duffey, Dominic Leone, Matt Barnes, Eddie Rosario, Jesse Winker, Jesse Chavez, Brad Keller and José Ureña — are now on major league rosters. Kevin Pillar, Bryan Shaw and Joely Rodríguez also landed MLB jobs but were subsequently designated for assignment. Rodríguez remains in DFA limbo with the Red Sox. Shaw cleared waivers and signed a minor league deal with the Angels. Pillar elected free agency over the weekend.

Five of these players — Matt Duffy, Kolten Wong, Carl Edwards Jr., Drew Pomeranz and Curt Casali — triggered their first opt-out and have since signed new minor league contracts, either with their previous organization or a different club. They presumably secured some kind of opt-out provision in their new deals, but they no longer have an automatic May 1 out date. Five others — Elvis Andrus, Eduardo Escobar, Mike Moustakas, C.J. Cron and Jake Odorizzi — were let go and have yet to sign elsewhere.

The other seven players have the option to retest free agency tomorrow. None of the group has played well enough to likely leverage their opt-out right into an immediate MLB job, but two or three could decide to hit the market and look for a better minor league opportunity elsewhere.

Angels: OF Jake Marisnick

Marisnick has spent most of his career as a glove-first outfielder off the bench. He’s a right-handed hitter with some pop against lefty pitching but subpar on-base skills. Marisnick had appeared in 46 MLB games between three teams a season ago, but he hasn’t been on the field much in 2024. He made just five appearances for the Halos’ top affiliate in Salt Lake before going on the minor league injured list on April 17.

Blue Jays: 1B Joey Votto

Votto inked a minor league deal with his hometown team early in Spring Training. The former MVP indicated at the time he was prepared to open the season in Triple-A. Votto suffered an ankle injury during his first exhibition game and has spent the entire season on the minor league IL. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith tweeted last week that Votto was running but had yet to resume hitting live pitching. It feels safe to assume he’ll pass on this opt-out chance and continue working back to health with the Jays. Daniel Vogelbach, who is on the MLB roster as a lefty bench bat, hasn’t produced (.111/.304/.167) over his first 23 plate appearances. That could open a path for Votto to get to Rogers Centre once he’s healthy.

Cubs: OF David Peralta

Peralta opened the season on the injured list with Triple-A Iowa. He was reinstated on April 10 and has appeared in 13 contests. The left-handed hitter has drawn nine walks with only seven strikeouts through his first 55 plate appearances, but he hasn’t done any kind of damage on contact. Peralta has just two extra-base hits (both doubles) and an overall .214/.364/.262 line through the season’s first month. The former Gold Glove left fielder played in 133 games for the Dodgers a year ago, hitting .259/.294/.381 over 422 plate appearances. He underwent surgery to repair a flexor tear in his throwing arm last October but has been able to play the outfield this season.

Mets: 1B Jiman Choi

Choi lost a camp battle with DJ Stewart this spring. He reported to Triple-A Syracuse but hasn’t made much of an impact. The left-handed hitter is out to a .191/.333/.340 start with a near-27% strikeout rate over 60 plate appearances. The Mets probably wouldn’t add him to the MLB roster, but Choi could take the opportunity to look for another minor league deal with a team that has a clearer path to first base/DH time. Pete Alonso and J.D. Martinez have those spots secured in Queens, while Stewart and Mark Vientos are above him on the depth chart as bench bats. Choi struggled with injuries in 2023 but was an above-average offensive performer with the Rays between 2019-22.

Rangers: Shane Greene

Greene has made three MLB appearances in each of the last two seasons. The right-hander was excellent in a limited look in Triple-A with the Cubs last year but has had a terrible start to 2024. Greene has walked 14 of the first 49 batters he’s faced for Round Rock, allowing 15 runs in eight innings. The Express placed him on the IL last week. Texas certainly can’t give him a spot in the MLB bullpen at this point. There’s a good chance Greene elects to stay in Round Rock as he tries to get healthy and find his command.

Red Sox: Michael Fulmer, Roberto Pérez

Neither Fulmer nor Pérez has played this season. Fulmer will miss the entire year after undergoing elbow surgery last fall. His contract is a two-year deal; he almost certainly won’t be exercising any of his three opt-out chances.

Pérez missed most of 2023 after undergoing a rotator cuff repair on his right shoulder. He played in seven games this spring but has spent the regular season on the minor league IL with an undisclosed injury. The Sox have gotten excellent play from their catching tandem of Connor Wong and Reese McGuire in the season’s first month. Perhaps Pérez feels there’s a better path to playing time if he signs a minor league deal with another team, but it seems likelier he’ll stick in the organization.

Alex Bregman’s Slow Start Could Cost Him Millions

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Both the Astros and Alex Bregman are off to slow starts in 2024. There’s still lots of time left in the season for things to change, both for the club and for the player. But Bregman is set to be one of the top free agents available this winter and his slow start could have a significant impact on his earning power.

Bregman, 30, has appeared in 25 games this year and taken 108 trips to the plate. He remains tough to strike out, as his 12% clip is a match for last year’s rate and close to his career average. His 9.3% walk rate is a bit above this year’s 8.6% league average but well below Bregman’s previous form, as he drew free passes in 13.8% of his plate appearances from 2018 to 2023.

When he has put the bat on the ball, he hasn’t been able to do damage. Most notably, he has yet to hit a home run this season. He has just 21 hits, with his five doubles being the only knocks of the extra-base variety. His batting line for the year is .216/.287/.268, which translates to a wRC+ of 65, indicating he’s been 35% worse than league average. His .247 batting average on balls in play is below average and below his career rate, but his barrel rate, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are also down relative to his career marks.

As mentioned, there’s plenty of time for him to turn things around, since we’re not even in the month of May yet. Bregman has been here before. The slump is not without precedent. Using the Baseball Reference Span Finder shows that his .555 OPS this year is the seventh-worst of any 25-game stretch of his career. The six worse stretches all had a winter’s gap, as they each go from the end of 2022 to the start of 2023. That means Bregman is technically in the worst single-season slump of his career, but he also had a .558 OPS across May and June of 2022, not far off from his current woes.

Given that he’s had a tailspin like this before, it seems fair to expect him to pull out of it. However, that doesn’t mean teams won’t use it against him in free agency. As we just saw in the winter, clubs are quite willing to wave any red flags they can get their hands on if it helps their bargaining position.

Cody Bellinger hit .307/.356/.525 for the Cubs last year and seemed poised for a huge payday, especially when also factoring in his 20 stolen bases and center field defense. But his mega contract never arrived, perhaps due to health concerns or perhaps due to his Statcast data being on the weak side. He was notoriously poor over 2021 and 2022 in the aftermath of shoulder surgery, and his 2023 bounceback season still saw him go on the injured list. While the end-of-season results were strong, his average exit velocity was in the 22nd percentile of qualified league hitters while his hard hit rate was in the 10th.

On the other end of the spectrum was Matt Chapman, who had strong Statcast metrics but tepid results. Chapman’s exit velocity and hard hit rate were among the best in the league, finishing in the 98th and 100th percentile, respectively. But he hit .240/.330/.424 on the year overall, 110 wRC+, and in rather uneven fashion. As many pointed out, he hit .384/.465/.687 in April but then .205/.298/.361 the rest of the way. That framing ignores the fact that Chapman was still good in July and got hurt in August, which may have made his post-April stats look worse than they were, but it may not have mattered.

When MLBTR previewed the upcoming free agent class, which is linked above, it was mentioned that a seven- or eight-year deal north of $200MM was a possibility for Bregman. Flawed-but-talented players have certainly gone over that line before, with Xander Bogaerts and Anthony Rendon some of the recent examples. The expectation of the industry was that players like Bellinger and Chapman could get nine-figure deals despite their own issues, but that’s not how it played out. Each had to settle for a three-year deal with opt-outs, hoping that continued strong performance could lead to a better deal down the road.

Bregman has plenty of attributes that he and his reps can point to. Injuries have not been a major factor for him, as he has played at least 155 games in five of the past six full seasons. His strikeout and walk rates are both consistently better than average, while his third base defense is rated well. The elite offense he showed in 2018 and 2019 might be gone, but he hit .261/.364/.447 over 2022 and 2023 for a 131 wRC+.

But his struggles this year could be used against him, even if they don’t last all year, which could be tricky for Bregman. Back in March of 2019, he signed a $100MM extension with the club which locked in some big money for him but also gave the club two years of extra control. That means that despite debuting in the big leagues at the age of 22, he’ll be going into free agency ahead of his age-31 season.

It seems fair to assume that Bregman and his representatives at the Boras Corporation would prefer to lock in as much money as they can this winter. Boras clients have pivoted to short-term deals when necessary, but Bregman’s age make that undesirable, as it will be harder for him to increase his earning power as he moves deeper into his 30s. He and the Astros have had some on-and-off talks about another extension in recent years, but the fact that nothing has come together yet perhaps suggests that he has been holding out for something big this winter.

The Astros under owner Jim Crane have been averse to lengthy contracts, having never gone longer than six years. Even the six-year extensions they did agree to were for much younger players. Jose Altuve got a six-year deal which started with his age-29 season while Yordan Alvarez got one starting for his age-26 campaign. However, they did just sign another extension with Altuve, a five-year pact that covers his age-35 through age-39 seasons, so it’s not as though going deep into a player’s 30s is completely off the table.

Perhaps Bregman can finish the season strong and the market conditions will eventually work in his favor. This past offseason, it seems like factors such as dwindling TV revenue and the competitive balance tax had negative impacts on free agents. It’s possible to imagine a correction this winter. Perhaps the Mets will be looking to get more aggressive after being relatively quiet. Maybe the new owner of the Orioles looks to make a headline-grabbing deal. Maybe the Red Sox come out swinging after some positive player development in 2024.

But even if those stars do align, those clubs will have other options, such as 26-year-old hitting savant Juan Soto, bona fide ace Corbin Burnes, consistent power threat Pete Alonso or everyday shortstop Willy Adames.

Even the teams looking to make a big splash next winter might not have Bregman atop their list as a 31-year-old third baseman who has been quite good but not necessarily elite in recent years. The longer this slump continues, the more they can use it as a bargaining tactic. Bregman and Boras surely noticed what happened to Bellinger, Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, who all had to lower their demands as the recent offseason slouched along. Even Snell’s Cy Young season couldn’t wash away concerns about his previous low points.

One thing that could work in Bregman’s favor is if the Astros keep struggling and he winds up traded at the deadline, which would make him ineligible for a qualifying offer. But Montgomery didn’t have a QO attached to him this past winter and that didn’t seem to matter much. Bregman and the Boras team are undoubtedly aware that there’s a wide range of outcomes for his free agency, making the next few months all the more important.

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