Offseason In Review: Houston Astros
The Astros lost one star in free agency while trading away another. They're moving their longtime second baseman to left field. It'll be a different team, one they hope will remain a top AL contender in the short term while avoiding a true rebuild in the second half of this decade.
Major League Signings
- 1B Christian Walker: Three years, $60MM
- LF Ben Gamel: One year, $1.2MM (only $200K guaranteed)
2025 spending: $21.2MM
Total spending: $62.2MM
Option Decisions
- None
Trades and Claims
- Acquired LF Taylor Trammell from Yankees for cash
- Traded RF Kyle Tucker to Cubs for 3B Isaac Paredes, RHP Hayden Wesneski and minor league 3B Cam Smith
- Traded SS Grae Kessinger to Diamondbacks for minor league RHP Matthew Linskey
- Traded RHP Ryan Pressly and cash ($5.5MM) to Cubs for minor league RHP Juan Bello
Notable Minor League Signings
Extensions
- None
Notable Losses
- Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Justin Verlander, Yusei Kikuchi, Ryan Pressly, José Urquidy (non-tendered), Caleb Ferguson, Héctor Neris, Jason Heyward, Kendall Graveman, Seth Martinez (via waivers), Penn Murfee (via waivers), Grae Kessinger, Trey Cabbage (via waivers)
The Astros are seeking their ninth consecutive playoff berth. Houston's incredible run of seven straight trips to the ALCS came to an end, but they still cruised to an AL West title after a ghastly start to the '24 campaign. The contention window certainly hasn't closed, but the front office had its work cut out for them this winter.
Alex Bregman's free agency was the most immediate challenge. Houston has spent up to and occasionally beyond the luxury tax line under owner Jim Crane. They're willing to spend, but that has come with the general caveat that they're not keen on offering long-term contracts. Houston had already allowed George Springer and Carlos Correa to walk in free agency. How much urgency would they show with Bregman?
The Astros made some effort to retain their longtime third baseman. They reportedly offered a six-year, $156MM proposal early in the winter. Bregman remained in pursuit of a contract closer to $200MM. While Houston left the offer on the table, the front office began turning its attention elsewhere when there was no progress towards a deal within the offseason's first six weeks.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Poll: Where Will Kyle Gibson Sign?
Yesterday saw the top remaining pitcher on MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB Free Agents list for the winter, southpaw Jose Quintana, come off the board when he reached an agreement with the Brewers on a one-year deal. That makes veteran right-hander Kyle Gibson, the #41 player on this offseason’s list, the top player remaining. With players like Quintana and Andrew Heaney having recently come off the board, it would hardly be a surprise to see that recent run on the remaining starters continue now that the calendar has flipped to March and Opening Day is less than a month away.
Gibson, 37, is the sort of player who tends to go underappreciated by fans but many clubs value. The veteran has typically been a slightly below average pitcher throughout his lengthy career, with a 93 ERA+ across both his 12 seasons in the majors overall and also in the five years since he first departed the Twins in free agency during the 2019-20 offseason. Despite those unimpressive numbers, Gibson still provides value to clubs through volume. The right-hander has posted at least 147 1/3 innings of work in every full season of his career, with only his partial rookie season in 2013 and the 60-game 2020 campaign falling beneath that figure.
While relying on a 37-year-old veteran for volume may seem counterintuitive when it’s common for players to struggle with staying healthy and effective as they age, Gibson has actually proven to be more durable than ever in his mid-to-late 30s: Since the start of his age-33 season in 2021, the veteran has made at least 30 starts each year and qualified for the ERA title in every season. In all, Gibson has made 124 starts with 711 1/3 innings of work total over the past four years. That’s a level of volume that’s become increasingly rare in today’s game: Gibson’s innings total is good for eighth in baseball over that timeframe, while his 124 games started is tied for seventh in baseball with Charlie Morton and Logan Webb.
Veteran innings-eaters of this sort are far from the most coveted assets in the game and will rarely make a club’s playoff rotation, but they still have value to teams in a number of situations. Rebuilding clubs without solid starting depth can often benefit from the stability and leadership a veteran can provide to its arsenal of young arms, and that’s a role Gibson previously filled in Texas. Even teams with playoff aspirations that either have lackluster depth in their rotations or are relying on young arms can benefit from the certainty offered by a player like Gibson; the Cubs and Mets signed Colin Rea and Griffin Canning to major league deals this offseason for their ability to eat innings in a pinch despite the fact that they had two of the three worst seasons among all qualified starters last year according to FIP.
Gibson offers a higher floor than either of those pitchers, though perhaps without the theoretical upside of Canning and the swingman experience of Rea. That should still be enough for the right-hander to command a major league deal this winter, however, and a handful of teams have expressed interest in his services throughout the winter. There appeared to be some level of mutual interest in a reunion between Gibson and the incumbent Cardinals even after St. Louis declined their club option on the veteran at the outset of the offseason, but a winter where the club failed to move a substantial salary like Nolan Arenado has seemingly left the front office’s hands mostly tied.
Outside of St. Louis, the Athletics and Tigers both reportedly expressed interest in Gibson at varying points during the winter, but both clubs have subsequently brought other rotation veterans into the fold and are no longer clear suitors for starting pitching help. The Guardians, Astros, Padres, and White Sox are among the teams who could theoretically make room for Gibson in their rotation but have not been publicly connected to the right-hander this winter. Aside from those more speculative fits, it’s worth noting that an injury or two could suddenly make a rotation spot available and push a team towards signing Gibson. After all, Quintana signed with the Brewers in a similar situation as the club dealt with injuries to youngsters DL Hall and Aaron Ashby. Other clubs that have suffered rotation injuries this spring include the Red Sox, Mets, Yankees, and Cubs, though it’s unclear if any of those clubs would consider looking outside the organization to fill that void rather than relying on internal depth options.
Where do MLBTR readers think Gibson will ultimately land? Have your say in the poll below:
Where will Kyle Gibson Sign?
-
Cardinals 10% (557)
-
Mets 9% (502)
-
Braves 7% (404)
-
Orioles 6% (358)
-
White Sox 5% (297)
-
Yankees 5% (278)
-
Angels 5% (273)
-
Athletics 5% (262)
-
Twins 4% (253)
-
Reds 4% (231)
-
Tigers 3% (177)
-
Guardians 3% (162)
-
Padres 3% (161)
-
Cubs 3% (161)
-
Pirates 3% (155)
-
Royals 3% (145)
-
Brewers 2% (137)
-
Marlins 2% (124)
-
Giants 2% (119)
-
Red Sox 2% (105)
-
Dodgers 2% (105)
-
Nationals 2% (105)
-
Rangers 2% (101)
-
Rockies 2% (101)
-
Blue Jays 2% (99)
-
Astros 2% (91)
-
Mariners 1% (77)
-
Rays 1% (58)
-
Phillies 1% (57)
-
Diamondbacks 1% (32)
Total votes: 5,687
Poll: Where Will David Robertson Sign?
With the calendar now flipped to March, the overwhelming majority of the league’s top free agents have already signed. There are still a handful of stragglers remaining on the market, however, and one of the most notable among those is veteran closer David Robertson.
With his 40th birthday just around the corner, Robertson is still searching for a landing spot ahead of what would be his 17th season in the majors. After a ten-year stretch as a quality late-inning arm for the Yankees and White Sox from 2009 to 2018 where he posted a 2.76 ERA (152 ERA+) with a nearly matching 2.77 FIP, Robertson faded from the spotlight for a few years due to injuries, leading him to pitch in just 19 games total between 2019 and 2021. While many veterans who miss the majority of three consecutive seasons due to injury in their mid-30s either retire or fail to re-establish themselves in the majors, Robertson picked right back up where he left off after signing with the Cubs in 2022.
Since then, Robertson’s played for five different teams across three seasons and found plenty of success. The righty has pitched to a 2.82 ERA (147 ERA+) with a 3.24 FIP in 201 innings of work with a 31.1% strikeout rate. With 40 saves in that time, Robertson is a capable ninth-inning pitcher who’s shown he’s also comfortable handling a setup role. That role flexibility is somewhat rare for elite veteran arms, and could make Robertson a viable option even for teams with a set closer in the ninth inning. Robertson’s overall profile would suggest that he’s likely to land a deal in line with other quality late-inning veterans like Kenley Jansen, Andrew Kittredge, and Jose Leclerc. With that being said, given the late point in the calendar and Robertson’s age, it wouldn’t necessarily be a shock if clubs had some concerns about his ability to get fully up to speed in time for Opening Day on March 27.
In terms of potential suitors, perhaps the most on-paper fit for Robertson’s services is the Diamondbacks. Arizona made no bones about their desire to add a late-inning arm with closing experience throughout the winter, but they’ve been unsuccessful in that pursuit to this point and instead have added middle relief veterans like Kendall Graveman and Shelby Miller as they look to add experienced arms to their relief corps. Robertson would be an immediate and substantial upgrade, but it’s difficult to see a financial fit between the sides given that Robertson is likely in line for a healthy one-year guarantee while the Diamondbacks are already at a franchise record level of spending after an offseason that saw them add star right-hander Corbin Burnes to the rotation. That could lead the club to focus instead on its internal options, a possibility MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last week.
Plenty of other teams have been connected to Robertson throughout the winter aside from Arizona, though they all come with question marks of their own. The incumbent Rangers added plenty of talent to their bullpen this winter, but lack a proper closer after watching Robertson, Leclerc, and Kirby Yates all depart in free agency this winter. That’s enough to make Robertson a logical fit for the club on paper, but much like Arizona, the club appears to be at or near its budget capacity for the 2025 campaign, which would make adding Robertson to the fold a difficult task.
The Cubs and Tigers were both connected to Robertson at various points throughout the winter, and a return to Chicago in particularly was frequently bandied about in the rumor mill throughout the offseason. Those rumors persisted even after the Cubs added Ryan Pressly to handle the ninth inning, but their subsequent trade with the Dodgers to acquire Ryan Brasier may have put an end to their pursuit of Robertson. Meanwhile, the Tigers have not been connected to Robertson in earnest since signing right-hander Tommy Kahnle, although its worth noting that Kahnle has just eight career saves and that the Tigers were reported to be interested in specifically adding an arm with closing experience to their late-inning mix.
While those are the only teams that have been explicitly connected to Robertson this winter, there’s plenty of other potential suitors for his services. The Red Sox are known to have been in the market earlier this winter for a right-handed reliever who could join Liam Hendriks and Aroldis Chapman in their late-inning mix. The Cardinals are known to covet a veteran right-handed relief arm to replace Kittredge in their bullpen, and the Phillies lost both Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez this winter while only adding Jordan Romano. If a rebuilding club like the Marlins or White Sox was willing to invest some money into the big league roster, either one could reunite with Robertson in the first half before shopping him at the trade deadline for future talent.
Where do MLBTR readers think Robertson will ultimately land? Have your say in the poll below:
Where will David Robertson sign?
-
Yankees 10% (865)
-
Rangers 9% (805)
-
Red Sox 9% (800)
-
Cubs 9% (775)
-
Braves 9% (724)
-
Mets 7% (623)
-
Phillies 4% (357)
-
Blue Jays 4% (331)
-
Diamondbacks 4% (326)
-
Tigers 3% (281)
-
Orioles 3% (252)
-
Dodgers 3% (213)
-
Angels 2% (192)
-
Pirates 2% (182)
-
White Sox 2% (159)
-
Reds 2% (157)
-
Padres 2% (150)
-
Athletics 2% (149)
-
Giants 2% (140)
-
Cardinals 2% (136)
-
Brewers 2% (136)
-
Mariners 1% (123)
-
Royals 1% (106)
-
Astros 1% (100)
-
Twins 1% (90)
-
Nationals 1% (88)
-
Marlins 1% (69)
-
Rays 1% (59)
-
Guardians 1% (58)
-
Rockies 1% (43)
Total votes: 8,489
10 Out Of Options Players To Watch This Spring
One of the most interesting elements of spring training every year, at least for those of us who feast on roster construction minutiae, is the collection of players who are out of minor league options. MLBTR just released a full list of such players earlier today.
In many instances, a player being out of minor league options is inconsequential. Justin Steele, Isaac Paredes and Evan Phillips are among the players who fit that description but are in no risk of losing their MLB roster spot. They're all key players on big league rosters who'd never be in danger of being sent down to the minors anyhow.
However, there are typically a handful of players every spring who are on the roster bubble with their current club but who could be a better fit on a team with less competition in their current position. Most of these players have already had big league opportunities with their current club but whether due to injury or poor performance (or both) have yet to firmly seize hold of a roster spot. As players exhaust their minor league options, they'll tend to face increased competition from younger players progressing through the minor league ranks and/or external additions made via trade or free agency. An out-of-options player who doesn't fit his current roster can still go on to find a more solid role and some success elsewhere. Joey Bart was in just this spot last year and after being squeezed out in San Francisco has emerged as Pittsburgh's starting catcher. The Yankees didn't have a spot for Ben Rortvedt, but he's the Rays' clear No. 2 catcher now.
Let's run through 10 names to keep an eye on this spring. Not all of these players will lose their roster spots, and even some who do might not wind up making an impact elsewhere. But each of the names listed here has some reason to hold a bit more intrigue than many of their out-of-options brethren (players listed alphabetically)...
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Out Of Options 2025
Every spring at MLBTR, we publish a list of players who are out of minor league options and cannot be sent to the minor leagues without first clearing outright waivers. Option status is particularly relevant as teams set their rosters prior to Opening Day. A lack of minor league options is often a key reason a certain player will make the roster over another who had a superior spring performance, and it’s a frequent factor in March trades.
The following is a list of all 40-man players throughout the league with fewer than five years of service time — players with more than five years of service can refuse an optional assignment — and no minor league options remaining. We’ve included players who have signed extensions or multi-year deals, even though they’re often less likely to be optioned.
Angels
- Jo Adell, OF
- Brock Burke, RP
- Mickey Moniak, OF
- José Quijada, RP
- José Suarez, RP
Astros
- Bryan Abreu, RP
- Shawn Dubin, RP
- Mauricio Dubón, IF/OF
- Cooper Hummel, C/OF
- Kaleb Ort, RP
- Isaac Paredes, IF
- Tayler Scott, RP
- Jon Singleton, 1B
- Taylor Trammell, OF
- Forrest Whitley, RP
Athletics
- Luis Medina, SP
Blue Jays
- Ryan Burr, RP
- Ernie Clement, IF
- Tyler Heineman, C
- Tommy Nance, RP
- Zach Pop, RP
Braves
- Nick Allen, IF
- Ian Anderson, SP
- Grant Holmes, SP/RP
- Angel Perdomo, RP
- Chadwick Tromp, C
- Eli White, OF
- Luke Williams, IF/OF
Brewers
- Vinny Capra, IF
- Eric Haase, C
- Nick Mears, RP
- Joel Payamps, RP
Cardinals
- Iván Herrera, C
- JoJo Romero, RP
Cubs
- Miguel Amaya, C
- Vidal Bruján, IF/OF
- Julian Merryweather, RP
- Tyson Miller, RP
- Justin Steele, SP
- Keegan Thompson, RP
Diamondbacks
- José Herrera, C
- René Pinto, C
- Pavin Smith, 1B/OF
Dodgers
- Anthony Banda, RP
- Evan Phillips, RP
Giants
- Jerar Encarnación, OF
- Sam Huff, C
- Heliot Ramos, OF
- David Villar, IF
Guardians
- Gabriel Arias, IF/OF
- Sam Hentges, RP
- Ben Lively, SP
- Triston McKenzie, SP
Mariners
- Eduard Bazardo, RP
- Luke Raley, 1B/OF
- Collin Snider, RP
- Gabe Speier, RP
- Trent Thornton, RP
- Carlos Vargas, RP
Marlins
- Jonah Bride, IF
- Edward Cabrera, SP
- Ronny Henriquez, RP
- Derek Hill, OF
- Otto López, IF/OF
- Seth Martinez, RP (currently in DFA limbo)
- Jesús Sánchez, OF
- Jesús Tinoco, RP
Mets
- José Azocar, OF
- José Buttó, RP
- Alexander Canario, OF
- Sean Reid-Foley, RP
- Jose Siri, OF
- Tyrone Taylor, OF
- Luis Torrens, C
- Mark Vientos, IF
- Danny Young, RP
Nationals
- Riley Adams, C
- Luis García Jr., 2B
- Keibert Ruiz, C
Orioles
- Bryan Baker, RP
- Roansy Contreras, SP/RP
- Cionel Pérez, RP
- Albert Suárez, SP/RP
- Ramón Urías, IF
Padres
- Eguy Rosario, IF/OF
- Brett Sullivan, C
Phillies
- Kody Clemens, IF/OF
- Buddy Kennedy, IF/OF
- Rafael Marchán, C
- Tyler Phillips, SP
- José Ruiz, RP
- Cristopher Sánchez, SP
- Edmundo Sosa, IF
Pirates
- Joey Bart, C
- Oneil Cruz, OF
- Bailey Falter, SP
- Joshua Palacios, OF
- Dennis Santana, RP
- Peter Strzelecki, RP
- Joey Wentz, RP
Rangers
- Josh Sborz, RP
- Leody Taveras, OF
- Jacob Webb, RP
Rays
- Garrett Cleavinger, RP
- Alex Faedo, RP
- Christopher Morel, IF/OF
- Manuel Rodríguez, RP
- Ben Rortvedt, C
- Edwin Uceta, RP
Red Sox
- None
Reds
- Stuart Fairchild, OF
- Tony Santillan, RP
Rockies
- Thairo Estrada, IF
- Jimmy Herget, RP
- Sam Hilliard, OF
- Nolan Jones, OF
- Justin Lawrence, RP
Royals
- Carlos Hernández, RP
- Sam Long, RP
- Nick Pratto, 1B/OF
- Nelson Velázquez, OF
Tigers
- Zach McKinstry, IF/OF
Twins
- Brock Stewart, RP
- Michael Tonkin, RP
White Sox
- Jacob Amaya, IF
- Lenyn Sosa, IF
- Mike Tauchman, OF
- Matt Thaiss, C
- Miguel Vargas, IF
- Bryse Wilson, SP/RP
Yankees
- Yoendrys Gómez, SP/RP
- Mark Leiter Jr., RP
- Oswald Peraza, IF
Poll: Who’s The Best Hitter Still Available In Free Agency?
With the end of February upon us, free agency has mostly been resolved for the offseason with only a handful of clearly big-league caliber free agents remaining. Unlike last year, when Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, and Jordan Montgomery were all top-10 free agents in the class who lingered on the open market well beyond the start of Spring Training, this year’s top free agents were almost entirely signed prior to the beginning of camp. At this point, just four of MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB Free Agents remain unsigned: Jose Quintana, Kyle Gibson, David Robertson, and Spencer Turnbull. Notably, all four of those unsigned players are pitchers.
While that leaves plenty of wiggle room for teams in need of pitching help due to a hole in the roster or a surprise injury to maneuver heading into March, the same can not be said on the hitting side of things. Even extending to the “honorable mentions” section of MLBTR’s list, just one hitter remains available after the Cubs’ recent signing of veteran infielder Justin Turner to a one-year deal. Slim as the pickings may be, however, there are certainly a handful of teams remaining who could use another bat in the lineup at least somewhere on the diamond. For those clubs in need of help on offense, who are the best options still remaining?
The only hitter still available who made the aforementioned “honorable mentions” section of MLBTR’s Top 50, Martinez has an unmatched track record as a hitter but is headed into his age-37 season on the heels of a down season with the Mets. Last year, the veteran slugger managed a slash line of just .235/.320/.406 with a wRC+ of 108. That’s certainly not bad offensive production, but it’s less impressive for a DH-only player and a major step back for a hitter with a career 130 wRC+. Martinez’s strikeout rate (28.5%) and walk rate (9.9%) were both actually better than his 2023 season with the Dodgers, but that improved discipline at the plate came with a severe drop off in power as he hit just 16 homers, less than half of last year’s 33.
Even after last year’s down season, however, Martinez remains a decorated hitter with an excellent track record. He’s been above-average at the plate in each of the past ten 162-game seasons, with a .286/.355/.536 (136 wRC+) slash line overall since the start of 2014. Even last year’s down production was comparable or better than a number of bat-first players around the league who enter 2025 with starting jobs, such as Luis Arraez, Josh Bell, Andrew McCutchen, and Rhys Hoskins. Perhaps most importantly, it’s worth noting that Martinez substantially under-performed his expected numbers last year, and his .351 xwOBA was actually slightly higher than quality bats like Teoscar Hernandez and Seiya Suzuki. That suggests that even a repeat of 2024 could yield significantly stronger production.
Few free agent hitters this year had a stronger platform season than Iglesias, who was worth 2.5 fWAR and 3.1 bWAR in just 85 games with the Mets thanks to an incredible .337/.381/.448 slash line, good for a 137 wRC+. Among second basemen with at least 250 plate appearances last year, that wRC+ is second only to Ketel Marte. Combined with Iglesias’s solid work with the glove around the infield, one would think that offense would make him a very attractive target for teams in need of help on the dirt. That’s not how things have played out so far, however. Iglesias has seemingly gotten little interest from clubs this winter, and a look under the hood helps to explain why.
Iglesias is on the older side, entering his age-35 season this year, and lacks a track record of success at the plate with a wRC+ of just 90 across more than 1,000 games in the majors. That’s not necessarily a death knell, as shown by Jurickson Profar turning last year’s breakout into a strong three-year guarantee with Atlanta, but underlying metrics suggest that Iglesias’s production last year is not anywhere near as sustainable. He was helped by an inflated .382 BABIP that’s nearly 70 points higher than his career .315 figure, and his xwOBA of .314 suggests his underlying performance was more akin to Jake Cronenworth than Francisco Lindor. Even with those potential red flags, however, Iglesias seems like the likely best option for teams in need of help on the infield.
Verdugo won’t turn 29 until May, making him by far the youngest player mentioned on this list. He’s also found solid success at the plate before in his career, as demonstrated by his .289/.343/.435 (108 wRC+) slash line from 2019 to 2022. Those factors work in his favor, but to this point in his free agency he’s been unable to capitalize on them coming off the worst offensive campaign of his career. Verdugo slashed just .233/.291/.356 (83 wRC+) in 149 games for the Yankees last year, a figure that made him one of the ten worst hitters in the sport to qualify for the batting title. That won’t cut it for a bat-first position like left field, even if Verdugo is a quality defender at the position.
Things aren’t entirely grim for the outfielder, however. Verdugo’s .302 xwOBA suggests that his underlying performance was roughly league average last year, and his offensive production could also be improved by limiting his exposure to same-handed pitchers given that he’s a career 79 wRC+ hitter against southpaws who mostly repeated that with a 74 wRC+ last year. It’s also worth noting that Verdugo’s .253 BABIP last season was substantially worse than any other campaign of his career and a full 60 points below his career norm entering the year. While there’s little to like in Verdugo’s 2024 numbers, it would be reasonable to suggest that his youth and upside relative to the rest of the players mentioned here makes him an attractive option.
Rizzo is entering his age-35 season an arguably the most difficult player to evaluate on this list. He’s played just 191 games over the past two years due to a number of substantial injuries, though none of them are the type of injury that would portend future injury woes: after suffering a concussion in early May of 2023, Rizzo saw his performance decline as he unknowingly played through the injury before being diagnosed with post-concussion syndrome ahead of a season-ending trip to the injured list in August of that year. He returned in 2024 but was limited to just 92 games by a fractured forearm and a finger fracture stemming from a collision at first base and a hit-by-pitch, respectively.
Over the past two years, Rizzo has not hit well. The veteran first baseman has slashed just .237/.315/.358 (91 wRC+) since the start of the 2023 campaign, and his expected numbers don’t show clear signs of untapped potential. For a 35-year-old restricted to first base and DH defensively, that could be enough for many teams to dismiss him as a regular option. With that being said, however, Rizzo also sports a track record as one of the most consistent hitters of the decade prior to his injuries with a .268/.368/.486 (131 wRC+) slash line from 2012 to 2022. Rizzo was off to an excellent start in 2023, with a .301/.376/.513 (146 wRC+) slash line in 50 games prior to the concussion. Given his track record of success and the stark drop of production he faced amid the injuries of the past two seasons, perhaps a fully healthy campaign is all it would take to get the veteran’s career back on track.
__________________________________________________________
The four aforementioned hitters certainly aren’t the only ones remaining in free agency, though the remaining group come with plenty of question marks. David Peralta posted a strong 115 wRC+ with the Padres last year, but did so in only 260 plate appearances, is entering his age-38 campaign, and looked overmatched as a semi-regular player for the Dodgers the year prior. Whit Merrifield is a versatile fielder who posted roughly league average (97 wRC+) production with the Braves down the stretch last year, but did so only after a disastrous (63 wRC+) stint with the Phillies earlier in the season. Nick Senzel is a former top prospect who’s still just 29 years old, but has yet to hit in the majors across parts of six seasons.
Which of free agency’s remaining hitters do MLBTR readers think is the best bet for success in 2025? Have your say in the poll below:
Who's the best hitter still on the market?
-
J.D. Martinez 59% (4,625)
-
Alex Verdugo 16% (1,289)
-
Anthony Rizzo 12% (909)
-
Jose Igelsias 11% (889)
-
Other (Specify in Comments) 2% (126)
Total votes: 7,838
Poll: Yankees’ Third Base Battle
The Yankees have remodeled their roster in a big way this offseason after losing Juan Soto to their intracity rivals in Queens, bringing in players like Max Fried, Paul Goldschmidt, Devin Williams, and Cody Bellinger in order to bolster a roster that came into the winter with a number of holes. But apart from adding Goldschmidt at first, they haven’t addressed the infield. Goldschmidt and Anthony Volpe figure to lockdown first base and shortstop respectively, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. is currently penciled in as the club’s starting second baseman after playing third in deference to Gleyber Torres last year.
Chisholm’s likely move back to second leaves a hole at the hot corner, however, and the club’s options to filling that void leave much to be desired. With two years and $30MM remaining on his six-year, $90MM contract with the club, veteran DJ LeMahieu may seem like the obvious favorite to open the season as a starter for the club. Unfortunately, however, the now 36-year-old veteran took a tumble in terms of productivity last year. Injury woes delayed his start to the season and ultimately limited him to just 67 games, but even when LeMahieu was healthy enough to play his work wasn’t up to snuff. The veteran hit just .204/.269/.259, leaving him with a career-worst 52 wRC+ that was 15th from the bottom among all hitters who had at least 200 plate appearances last year.
It’s worth noting that LeMahieu’s underlying performance wasn’t quite as dire as his actual on-field production last year. LeMahieu’s .299 xwOBA far outstrips his actual wOBA of .239, with that expected number actually being better than the expected production of a handful of last year’s quality infield regulars like Luis Rengifo and Tyler Fitzgerald. LeMahieu’s barrel rate of 5.8% was perfectly in line with his numbers from the previous two seasons, and while his hard-hit rate was down, that drop wasn’t enough to justify his complete power outage in 2024, when he hit just five doubles and two homers in 228 trips to the plate. His .229 batting average on balls in play was also almost comically low, and his 15.4% strikeout rate remained excellent.
While any hope of LeMahieu returning to his former status as a clearly above-average contributor is likely misplaced with his 37th birthday approaching this July, it’s certainly not impossible to imagine a bit better luck on batted balls allowing him to be a roughly average regular so long as his defense holds up. That might be enough to assure him of a nearly everyday role with the Yankees to open the season, at least as things stand. While rolling the dice on a rebound from an aging veteran like LeMahieu is sure to a cause queasy feelings among fans, his competition for the job isn’t exactly robust.
The player in the third base competition coming off the best 2024 season is Oswaldo Cabrera. The switch-hitting utility man had an up-and-down season last year, hitting .247/.296/.365 (88 wRC+) overall while primarily playing third base but also mixing in time at every position on the diamond other than catcher and center field. His bat was quite inconsistent throughout the year, however. After a torrid ten-game stretch to open the season where he managed three home runs among twelve hits, Cabrera hit just .221/.269/.304 with a wRC+ of 62 across the rest of the first half, totaling 198 plate appearances in that time.
While the 25-year-old turned things around down the stretch and hit a respectable .271/.319/.424 after the All-Star break, that production came in a reduced role that saw him take just 92 trips to the plate across the final ten weeks of the season last year. That late-season uptick in production combined with the fact that he’ll only turn 26 later this week might be enough to convince Yankees brass that he’s worthy of another shot as a regular, but it would also be understandable if the club saw it as a signal that Cabrera is best suited for a utility role where his versatility can be best maximized and he can be more easily protected from tougher match ups.
The final top contender for playing time on the Yankees infield at the moment is Oswald Peraza. Still just 24 years old, Peraza is a former top-100 prospect who has yet to make a name for himself in the big leagues, having hit just .216/.297/.315 (74 wRC+) in 259 trips to the plate at the big league level over the past three seasons. Peraza is considered a quality defender all around the infield and has gotten only sporadic playing time in the majors to this point, so it’s fair to argue that he has the highest chance of blossoming into an above-average regular of the Yankees’ three primary third base options this year.
With that being said, however, Peraza’s prospect star lost its shine for a reason. A shoulder issue slowed him out of the gate last year, delaying the start of his season until May. And when he finally made his season debut, he found himself struggling to hit even at the Triple-A level with a pedestrian .246/.341/.394 line across 406 plate appearances. Further complicating the situation is the fact that Peraza is out of options, meaning that the Yankees would have to carry him on the big league roster as he not only attempts to bounce back from a tough season in the minors last year but also attempts to produce against major league pitching for the first time in his career.
Other internal options beyond this trio are few and far between. Jorbit Vivas is on the 40-man roster but has yet to make the majors, posted weaker numbers than Peraza at Triple-A last year, and has a minor league option remaining. Pablo Reyes is in camp as a non-roster invitee but is a career .248/.309/.349 (78 wRC+) hitter in the majors who posted a brutal 23 wRC+ in brief stints with the Red Sox and Mets last year. Braden Shewmake and Andrew Velazquez are also in camp with the club but have yet to show an ability to hit major league pitching to this point in their careers. While an external addition would make plenty of sense for the club, the pickings on the free agent market are very slim at this point, and the Yankees have signaled they don’t have the budget space necessary for a pursuit of a high-dollar solution like Nolan Arenado without first offsetting the cost by trading a veteran like Marcus Stroman.
How do MLBTR readers think the situation at third base will play out for the Yankees? Will they lean on LeMahieu in hopes of a bounceback? Should they turn to Cabrera despite his inconsistency and value as a utility player? Or could they give the reins to Peraza in hopes he can continue to develop at the big league level? Have your say in the poll below:
Who will start the most games for the Yankees at third base in 2025?
-
Someone not yet in the organization 34% (2,606)
-
DJ LeMahieu 27% (2,075)
-
Oswaldo Cabrera 21% (1,587)
-
Oswald Peraza 18% (1,373)
Total votes: 7,641
This Date In Transactions History: Nolan Arenado’s 2019 Extension
Today marks six years since the signing of the largest contract in Rockies history. On February 26, 2019, Colorado signed Nolan Arenado to a seven-year extension that guaranteed $234MM. It kept the star third baseman from reaching the open market the following offseason. The franchise-record deal also included a full no-trade clause and the right to opt out after the 2021 season.
It looked to cement the defensive stalwart as the face of the franchise for the upcoming decade. Arenado was coming off his fourth consecutive finish among the top 10 in MVP balloting. He’d landed in the top five three years running. Over the preceding four seasons, Arenado was sixth among position players in FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement — trailing Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Jose Altuve, Kris Bryant and Francisco Lindor. The Rockies had made the playoffs in consecutive seasons and were coming off a 91-win campaign that included a Wild Card game victory over the Cubs.
A relatively small-market franchise extending a player of that caliber one year from free agency was cause for excitement among Colorado fans. That optimism was dashed as the relationship went south incredibly quickly. Arenado had arguably the best season of his career in year one, hitting .315/.379/.583 with 41 homers to earn a sixth-place MVP finish. Yet the team won 20 fewer games than they had in ’18, kicking off an ongoing stretch of at least six straight losing seasons.
By the following offseason, a rift had emerged between Arenado and then-GM Jeff Bridich. Arenado was reportedly displeased with Colorado’s lack of moves to put a competitive roster around him. He was the subject of trade rumors by the 2019-20 offseason. Bridich publicly shot down trade possibilities that winter. Arenado remained in Colorado for the shortened season. It was an underwhelming year for player and team alike that did nothing to improve the relationship.
Two years after signing the extension, the Rockies found themselves attempting to offload as much money as possible owed to their disgruntled star. It wasn’t an easy contract to move. The no-trade gave Arenado the ability to pick his destination. The deal contained six years and $199MM in remaining guarantees with the potential for Arenado to opt out after one season.
The trade Colorado found was a disappointment even in that context. The Cardinals landed Arenado that February for a five-player return led by back-end starter Austin Gomber. He’s a capable fifth starter. None of the other four players — Elehuris Montero, Mateo Gil, Jake Sommers and Tony Locey — remain in the organization. Montero is the only member of that group who even reached the majors and he was a sub-replacement performer.
Colorado kicked in $51MM to facilitate the deal, while Arenado agreed to a restructured contract that deferred part of his 2022-26 salaries while adding a $15MM salary for 2027. Bridich was out as GM three months later. One year after dumping $148MM of the Arenado contract, the Rox signed Bryant to his ill-fated $182MM free agent deal.
The sequence served as a precursor to this winter’s series of trade rumors. Arenado played at a superstar level for his first two seasons in St. Louis, helping the team to consecutive playoff berths. His production over the past two years has been more solid than exceptional. The Cards have missed the playoffs in both and are looking more toward the future than short-term contention. They spent all offseason trying to move Arenado to a contender while moving most of the remaining money. The no-trade clause again allowed him to be particular regarding the teams to which he’d approve a deal.
After he famously nixed a move to the Astros in December, Arenado is expected to play what’ll be his fifth season in St. Louis. He’s into the final two seasons of the deal he’d initially signed with Colorado. He’s due $32MM and $27MM respectively over the next two years, though he agreed to defer $6MM annually to facilitate the trade to St. Louis. The Rockies are still paying down $5MM in each of those seasons. St. Louis is fully responsible for the tacked-on $15MM salary in ’27, which is not deferred.
On The Future Of The Blue Jays
A lot can change in a year for a baseball team. Around this time in 2024, FanGraphs gave the Tigers a 28.9% chance of making the playoffs and had the Cardinals as the favorites to win the National League Central.
Detroit had a middling first half and sold at the deadline, trading Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers for prospects. They surged to the playoffs without Flaherty, then re-signed him this winter and now enter 2025 as clear contenders. The Cardinals kept their hopes alive through most of 2024, acquiring Erick Fedde, Tommy Pham and Shawn Armstrong at the deadline. But when that fell short, they decided to hit the reset button and don’t seem to be planning to compete anytime soon. Even their offseason reboot plans were scuttled, with various players using their no-trade clauses to block deals the front office surely hoped to make.
Going into 2025, the Blue Jays are perhaps the club with the widest spectrum of possible outcomes. On the one hand, a lot of the roster is the same club that played at a pretty consistent 90-win pace over the 2020-23 period. They had an injury-marred season in 2024 but bolstered the roster in the winter in an attempt to return to contention in 2025. With the expanded playoffs, getting back into the mix this year is entirely possible.
The American League East seems wide open. The FanGraphs Projected Standings have all five clubs with a 35-71% chance of getting a postseason spot, with the Jays at 38.3%. The PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are somewhat similar, with the Jays at 48.5% and no club higher than 72.3%. For the entire American League, both projection systems have 12 clubs in the 19-71% range, with only the Angels, Athletics and White Sox lower than that.
The other side of the coin is well known at this point. The club is losing its grip on several of its key players. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the most notable, as he’s an impending free agent that the club hasn’t been able to sign to a long-term deal. The same is true of Bo Bichette, the club’s other longtime core piece. Chris Bassitt, Max Scherzer, Chad Green and Erik Swanson are also slated for the open market this fall. George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Yimi García, Daulton Varsho and Alejandro Kirk are on pace to be free agents after 2026. José Berríos can join that latter group by opting out of the final two years of his deal. All could be trade candidates this summer if things aren’t going well.
That situation extends beyond the roster. President Mark Shapiro is reportedly going into the final year of his contract. General manager Ross Atkins is reportedly only signed through 2026. Manager John Schneider is signed through 2025 with a club option for 2026. Around the baseball world, there is an expectation that a poor season will lead to significant changes. If the Jays are bad again in 2025, no one would really be shocked if Shapiro, Atkins and Schneider are all gone.
Even if the team does manage to put together a good season in 2025, there will be questions to be answered about the future. As mentioned, several players are set to qualify for free agency in this coming winter or the one after that.
Whether they can replace some of those players internally is tough to say. Industry evaluations of the system as a whole are not strong. Baseball America ranks the farm system 23rd in the league. Keith Law of The Athletic and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN recently put them 24th.
That’s not necessarily shocking, as the club has been putting a priority on the big league roster lately. Bassitt and Springer had rejected qualifying offers, so the Jays had to give up a draft pick for each of those deals. The same is true of the upcoming draft, as Anthony Santander also rejected a QO.
Of the club’s five first-round picks from 2018 to 2022, they eventually traded three. They sent Jordan Groshans to the Marlins in the Anthony Bass/Zach Pop deal, Austin Martin to the Twins in the Berríos trade and Gunnar Hoglund to the Athletics in the Matt Chapman trade. The other two, Alek Manoah and Brandon Barriera, are both recovering from Tommy John surgery right now. Other notable prospects like Ricky Tiedemann and Landen Maroudis are also working back from TJS.
That has left the club with a clear lack in top-end talent. Baseball America has just one Jay on their top 100, with Tiedemann having literally the last spot. The lists from FanGraphs, ESPN, MLB Pipeline and Law all have two or three Jays on them but no one in the top 60.
A person looking for optimism could focus on the volume of guys who are either borderline top 100 guys or just outside of that designation. In addition to their recent top 100 list, Baseball America also released a list of every player who received at least one vote from one of their writers. They build their top 100 by having several contributors submit a top 150 ranking, then use a points system to combine those different lists.
As mentioned, the Jays ultimately only got one guy on there with Tiedemann taking the final spot, but he was one of seven different players to receive a vote. That means that at least one BA staffer considered Jake Bloss, Arjun Nimmala, Alan Roden, Josh Kasevich, Orelvis Martínez or Trey Yesavage to be a borderline top 100 guy. Some of those guys appeared on the other linked top 100 lists. Only one club had more than 11 players on that vote-getter list from BA, while some clubs had as few as three.
The volume of the Jays’ system also appeared to show up at ZiPS, the projection system from Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs. ZiPS had five guys on the top 100, six guys in the top 200 and 20 in the top 500. In that latter category, only three clubs were ahead of the Jays. The Rays had 24, with the Reds and White Sox at 21.
This quantity-over-quality assessment probably aligns with the observations of anyone earnestly following the club. They have an army of guys who are not really considered top prospects but seem perhaps capable of being major leaguers in the near future. This includes guys like Will Wagner, Joey Loperfido, Jonatan Clase, Charles McAdoo, RJ Schreck, Adam Macko and Lazaro Estrada. They also have some guys who are no longer prospects and aren’t fully established but still have some future potential, such as Bowden Francis, Davis Schneider, Nathan Lukes, Leo Jiménez and Addison Barger.
Perhaps a few nice developments in there could make the future look a little better. But even if that comes to pass, there will still be the unanswered question of the club’s star power. The club’s attempts to sign players like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes and others have come up just short. As mentioned, their overtures to Guerrero haven’t worked.
The one benefit of all those misses, and the large slate of impending free agents, is that the future payroll is fairly clean. By 2028, only Santander, Berríos, Andrés Giménez and Yariel Rodríguez will be guaranteed deals. Berríos has an opt-out after 2026. Santander and Rodríguez can opt-out after 2027, though the club can void those opt-outs by triggering club options. The Giménez deal is guaranteed through 2029 with a club option for 2030.
Though Guerrero hasn’t signed a long-term deal yet, he did leave the door open to consider a future offer if the club circled back to him. It’s also possible that he could reach free agency and re-sign, the same way that star players like Aaron Judge and Pete Alonso re-signed with the Yankees and Mets respectively. The Jays could also pivot to some other notable free agent next winter, such as Kyle Tucker, Munetaka Murakami, Dylan Cease or Zac Gallen.
While starting this piece, I considered using cliches like “shifting sands”, “fog of war”, “up in the air”, “multiverse” or “over the horizon” in the title. The point I was hoping to make is that there’s almost nothing that can be known about the Jays right now. It’s entirely plausible that they’re good this year, but also just as possible that they’re bad. Making the playoffs is totally within reason, but everyone could be traded and everyone could be fired. They could see a few of their many young guys step up and cement themselves as future pieces, offsetting the upcoming free agent departures. The system could look barren as they kick off a yearslong rebuild. They could sign a franchise-altering mega contract or they could not.
Many fans have already made up their minds about the Blue Jays but it seems like everything will be on the line this year with so much to be determined. Regardless of the outcomes, it should be interesting.
The D-backs’ Closing Competition
The Diamondbacks entered the offseason in search of a new first baseman, a closer and some right-handed thump in the lineup, among other items on the to-do list. They’ve broadly succeeded, acquiring Josh Naylor from the Guardians to replace free agent Christian Walker and re-signing Randal Grichuk. The Snakes haven’t found a slam-dunk closer, but they signed a new (co) ace, shocking the industry with their signing of Corbin Burnes for six years and $210MM.
While there’s still one marquee free agent reliever on the market — David Robertson has yet to sign — it appears increasingly likely that the Diamondbacks will largely go with the arms who are already in camp as they look to sort out the ninth inning. Arizona’s payroll is already projected for a franchise-record $195MM. That’s a new highwater mark by a measure of nearly $30MM. We can always adopt the “never say never” mentality as long as there are a few viable closing options on the free agent and trade markets, but the D-backs may already have their closer in house. At present, A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez appear to be the front-runners.
Puk, acquired at the deadline from the Marlins in exchange for young slugger Deyvison De Los Santos and outfielder Andrew Pintar, enjoyed a quietly dominant season in 2024. His cumulative 3.15 ERA looks more good than great, but it’s skewed by a failed experiment wherein the Marlins tried to stretch him back out as a starter early in the season. Puk was clobbered for 17 runs in 13 2/3 innings. He moved back to the bullpen, and from that point forth was arguably the best reliever in the sport.
After giving up 17 earned runs in his four starts, Puk only allowed 11 more earned runs for the entire season. He posted a 1.72 ERA out of the bullpen in 2024, fanning a colossal 35% of his opponents against a terrific 5.1% walk rate. Opponents averaged only 86.6 mph off the bat against him in that time with a middling 32.6% hard-hit rate. Per Statcast, only five of his opponents’ batted balls in that time were barreled. Puk allowed a run in his second appearance with the D-backs and then went on a run for the ages, rattling off 23 2/3 scoreless innings with a 38-to-4 K/BB ratio. He punched out 44.7% of opponents in that career-best run.
Martinez was nearly as dominant for the early portion of the 2024 season. The young flamethrower posted a 1.60 ERA with a 27.5% strikeout rate and mammoth 64.5% grounder rate in his first 50 innings of work. His exit velocity and hard-hit rate were nearly identical to Puk’s marks as a reliever. An 11.5% walk rate was in clear need of improvement, but for a 22-year-old who averaged better than 100 mph on both his four-seamer and sinker, it’s hard to draw up a more promising start.
That run of dominance didn’t last the full season, however. While Martinez remained a solid reliever, his 3.90 ERA over the final 27 2/3 innings of his season was far less eye-catching. The young righty’s strikeout rate actually ticked up during that span, perhaps due to roughly doubling the usage of his four-seamer at the expense of his sinker, but his grounder rate fell sharply. There was surely some poor fortune in play, as Martinez was hampered by a .388 BABIP during this stretch despite continuing to limit hard contact (and allowing only one home run).
Whether in the ninth inning or working in a setup capacity, both Puk and Martinez will be in high-leverage roles this season. They were two of the D-backs’ top five arms in terms of their average leverage index — but not the top two. Paul Sewald‘s departure in free agency subtracted one of Arizona’s top leverage arms, but it was actually righty Ryan Thompson who found himself most frequently in high-leverage spots, followed by Martinez and then by fellow righty Kevin Ginkel.
The 32-year-old Thompson isn’t the prototypical power arm often associated with pressure-packed, late-inning situations. He’s a sidearming righty who averages just 91 mph on his sinker and 92.5 mph on his lesser-used four-seamer. Thompson’s 19.1% strikeout rate was well below the 23.4% league average among relievers. However, he boasts a 61% grounder rate, rarely issues walks (5.5%) and posted nearly identical results versus righties (.254/.299/.377) and lefties (.254/.293/.377). He picked up two saves and 24 holds.
Ginkel, 30, has quietly emerged as a key arm in Phoenix. He was never a top prospect and didn’t truly establish himself as a reliable reliever until his age-28 season, in 2022. Over the past three seasons, he’s tossed 164 2/3 innings with a 2.95 ERA. It’s not necessarily flashy, as Ginkel is more good-than-great in terms of strikeout rate (26.5%), walk rate (7.3%), swinging-strike rate (12.5%), ground-ball rate (47.1%) and fastball velocity (96 mph average) in that time. Even with the lack of one standout area in which he truly excels, his above-average rates across the board have made him a consistent and reliable late-inning option for manager Torey Lovullo.
Also entering the mix is 34-year-old Kendall Graveman, who signed a one-year, $1.35MM deal after missing the 2024 season due to shoulder surgery. With 24 saves and 56 holds from 2020-23, Graveman is no stranger to late-inning work. After moving to the bullpen in Sept. 2020 with the Mariners, Graveman rattled off 197 1/3 innings with a 2.78 ERA, 24% strikeout rate, 10.3% walk rate and 49.2% grounder rate. At his best, Graveman averaged better than 96 mph on his heater and offered a Ginkel-esque blend of above-average strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates while sitting around 96 mph with his main offering. Whether he can return to that form in the wake of last year’s shoulder surgery is an open question.
However it shakes out, the Snakes look to have a solid quintet of arms rounding out the late-inning group at Chase Field. Lefty Joe Mantiply offers a solid middle-inning complement who has picked up around 12 holds per year over the past four seasons. A starter who doesn’t make the rotation (e.g. Jordan Montgomery, Ryne Nelson) could hold down another spot. Bryce Jarvis, Kyle Nelson and non-roster candidates like Shelby Miller, Scott McGough, John Curtiss and Josh Winder (among others) will vie for what’s likely one open spot.
There’s enough left on both the trade and free agent markets that it’s not impossible to envision a change still impacting Lovullo’s bullpen composition. Signing Robertson might be too pricey, likely pushing the D-backs into $200MM+ payroll territory for the first time, but if GM Mike Hazen ultimately finds a trade partner for Montgomery, any savings could make Robertson feel likelier. The Padres have been open to offers on Robert Suarez. Trading within the division probably isn’t either team’s first choice, though. A Ryan Helsley trade before next offseason feels virtually inevitable but also seems likelier to happen in-season at this point.
In any bullpen, there’s almost always room for one more addition. But, if this is the group the D-backs take into the season, they can still feel good about an impressive breadth of experienced late-inning arms who have the makings of a strong overall unit.