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Jurickson Profar Is Rewarding The Padres’ Faith

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The Padres overhauled much of the roster as they navigated payroll constraints last winter. The outfield was more stripped down than retooled, as San Diego traded Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to both offload Soto’s massive arbitration salary and address a pitching staff that lost four possible starters to free agency. While San Diego subsequently poked around the free agent and trade markets for outfield help, the payroll limitations led them to enter camp with two question marks alongside Fernando Tatis Jr.

Within a couple weeks of exhibition play, it became clear the Padres were going to turn left and center field to Jurickson Profar and Jackson Merrill, respectively. San Diego signed Profar for a barely more than the league minimum in mid-February. Merrill was a 20-year-old shortstop prospect who had never played above Double-A nor logged any game reps in center field before Spring Training. That outfield alignment at least carried ample risk. At worst, it might be the difference between making and missing the postseason for a fringe Wild Card contender.

Through two months, San Diego’s outfield has instead been its biggest strength. Tatis isn’t the same player he was before injuries and a failed PED test wiped out his 2022 season, but he’s an above-average regular. Merrill is hitting at a league average level and playing plus defense at his new position, remarkable work for a player less than three years removed from high school. Yet it’s Profar who has been by far the biggest contributor. He has not only been San Diego’s best player, he’s one of the top performers in the National League.

Profar is hitting .323/.421/.495 across 233 plate appearances. He has hit eight home runs, one shy of the total he managed in 125 games between the Rockies and San Diego last year. Profar is drawing walks at a personal-high 13.3% clip while keeping his strikeout rate at a customarily low 14.2% mark. He’s hitting the ball harder than he has at any point in his career. This season’s 41% hard contact percentage is almost 10 points higher than last year’s middling 31.7% rate.

There’ll very likely be some amount of regression in the next few months. Profar isn’t going to keep pace with the likes of Soto, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman all season. His career has been defined by wild swings in performance. Profar was a slightly above-average hitter in 2018, ’20 and ’22. His performance in the intervening odd seasons was at or below replacement level. Yet this year’s production is unprecedented even for an extremely high-variance player. Before this year, Profar’s career-best OPS over any 59-game span was an .876 mark he managed in the second half of 2018 while a member of the Rangers (h/t to the Baseball Reference Span Finder). This season’s .916 is 40 points higher.

Profar has already more than made good on San Diego’s $1MM investment. Even if his bat were to completely crater in the next few months, bringing him back would be a win for the Padres. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has long valued Profar more than the rest of the league (and most outside observers) would.

He made a surprising three-year, $21MM bet on the former top prospect during the 2020-21 offseason. San Diego brought him back last fall after Profar played his way off a Rockies team on its way to 103 losses. They didn’t bring in another left fielder to push Profar to the bench this spring. That’s largely because of financial constraints, of course, but San Diego also balked at what proved to be a $3MM price point for Tommy Pham while spending similar salaries on Wandy Peralta, Yuki Matsui and Woo-Suk Go. Preller certainly wouldn’t have anticipated Profar being the team’s best hitter, but it’s probably fair to say he had higher expectations for his left fielder than almost anyone else did.

San Diego heads into the weekend with a 30-29 record that has them in the third Wild Card spot in the National League. They’re still a borderline contender whose season could go a number of ways in the next few months. It would likely take a major collapse for them to sell at the trade deadline, so Profar should play the entire season in San Diego. He’ll return to free agency next offseason going into his age-32 campaign.

Profar has not previously received a qualifying offer, so he would be eligible for the QO if the Padres hang onto him all year. While it seems unlikely the Padres would put a one-year offer worth more than $20MM on the table, it’s not entirely out of the question depending on well Profar hits in the second half. If he hits the market unencumbered by draft compensation, he could land the biggest guarantee of his career. He’s at least trending toward a two-year deal and would have an argument for a three-year pact in the Jeimer Candelario ($45MM) or Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($42MM with an opt-out) range if his bat doesn’t wilt down the stretch.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

The New And Improved Clarke Schmidt

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A lot has gone right for the Yankees in 2024. Even without the services of reigning Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole through the season’s 30% mark, they find themselves atop the American League East by a measure of two games over the second-place Orioles. The Rays, eight games back, are a distant third. Boston and Toronto follow with deficits of 8.5 games and 10.5 games, respectively.

Beyond Cole’s absence, the Yanks dealt with a prolonged slump for 2022 MVP Aaron Judge and have yet to get so much as a single at-bat from DJ LeMahieu due to a fractured foot suffered in spring training. Setup man Jonathan Loaisiga pitched only four innings before requiring internal brace surgery. On the flip side, Juan Soto has lived up to the billing as a middle-of-the-order force. Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes both look like the pitchers the Yankees expected them to be in 2023. Marcus Stroman has handled himself well, albeit with an uncharacteristic uptick in walks.

For all the big names turning in marquee and/or rebound performances, the Yankees have also seen substantial improvement from a key in-house arm. Righty Clarke Schmidt was a top prospect long before he made his MLB debut, and he made 29 serviceable starts last season, so it’s not as though he wasn’t expected to contribute at all this year. But heading into the season, Schmidt looked like a clear back-of-the-rotation arm.

About one-third of the way through the 2024 season, that’s no longer the case. Schmidt still looks the part of a big league starter, but he’s taken considerable steps forward and now looks like far more than a garden variety innings eater. Schmidt has upped his velocity by a bit more than a mile per hour on both his cutter (up from 91.5 mph to 92.6 mph) and sinker (93.6 mph in 2023, 94.7 mph in 2024). Schmidt is also taking a page from the Corbin Burnes playbook, throwing more cutters than at any point in his career, and doing so at the expense of his sweeper and sinker. It’s not an overwhelming change in pitch selection, but Schmidt has gone from throwing that cutter around 28% of the time to 35.5% of the time in 2024.

The biggest change for Schmidt, however, isn’t necessarily one of pitch usage but rather of pitch effectiveness. Opponents in 2023 teed off on his sweeper, blasting the pitch at a .276/.331/.559 pace when putting it into play. Opponents basically became 2023-24 Gunnar Henderson when putting Schmidt’s sweeper into play. That’s … not good. (Well, not good for Schmidt.)

In 2024, Schmidt has actually taken a bit of life off that breaking ball. Coupled with the uptick in cutter/sinker velocity, the gap between those harder pitches and his primary breaking ball has widened by around two miles per hour. Last year saw a 5.3 mph gap between his cutter and sweeper, and a 7.4 mph gap between the sinker and sweeper. This year, those differentials are up to respective marks of 6.9 mph and 9.0 mph. Additionally, by measure of Statcast, Schmidt’s sweeper is also generating an extra 3.3 inches of horizontal break over last year’s version of the pitch.

The tweaks are subtle but the changes in Schmidt’s results aren’t. Through his first 10 starts of the season, the right-hander touts a 2.59 ERA (3.54 FIP, 3.38 SIERA). His strikeout rate is up from 21.5% to a career-best 27.2%. His walk rate has worsened, but only slightly, and at 7.6%, it’s still a percentage point better than the league average. Schmidt is generating more swinging strikes (10.2% in 2023, 12.2% in 2024), getting more called strikes and has seen his opponents’ contact rates drop both in the zone and off the plate. A hearty 41% of batted balls against Schmidt last year traveled 95 mph or more, but this year that rate is down to 34.8%. His opponents’ average exit velocity is down roughly one mile per hour. He’s allowing less contact, and the balls that are put into play against him are generally more timid in nature.

Schmidt’s step forward is well-timed for the Yankees on multiple fronts. Not only does it dovetail with a time when rotation depth is paramount for the Yankees as they await Cole’s return, it also comes when Schmidt is still controllable for a considerable period of time. Schmidt is 28 and already into arbitration, earning $2.184MM this season, but he’s a Super Two player who was only first-time eligible this past offseason. The Yankees control him for three more seasons.

While Schmidt’s arb price will rise considerably if he can sustain even 80% of the gains he’s made this season, he’ll still be priced well below market levels at a time when the Yankees are in the final years of some relatively heavy veteran contracts. Stroman ($18.5MM next season, plus an $18MM vesting option for 2026), Anthony Rizzo ($17MM club option), LeMahieu ($15MM in 2025 and 2026), will all still be on the books in the short-term, when Schmidt’s price tag is particularly affordable. Given the Yankees’ long-term commitments to Cole, Judge, Rodon and Giancarlo Stanton — plus their obvious hope of re-signing Soto — having low-cost contributors like Schmidt play key roles is of even greater importance.

Speaking of Soto, his very presence on the roster made it crucial that Schmidt and other in-house arms step up in 2024. The Yankees parted with notable pitching depth to acquire Soto from San Diego, sending Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez and top prospect Drew Thorpe to the Padres in that package. King would’ve been locked into a rotation spot in the Bronx, and each of Brito, Vasquez and Thorpe were depth options for this year’s rotation. You could argue it’s a quantity-over-quality group, but the Soto trade left the Yankees with much less depth to rely on in the event of injuries. A step back from Schmidt would’ve been magnified even further with Cole on the shelf.

Instead, Schmidt has taken significant steps forward — thanks to changes that make much of his improvement feel sustainable. He’s not likely to keep running a sub-3.00 ERA, but Schmidt looks far more like a mid-3.00s type of pitcher than the 2023 version of himself that appeared ticketed for a mid-4.00s mark.

The Blue Jays May Have Some Tough Decisions To Make

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The Blue Jays are obviously not having the season they envisioned in 2024. The club played at a 90-win pace over the previous four years, making the playoffs in three of those seasons and falling just one game short in 2021. But here in 2024, they are 21-26, last in the East and ahead of just the Athletics, Angels and White Sox in the American League standings.

The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs currently give them a 17.9% of getting into the postseason, though the PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are more bullish and still give the Jays a 30% shot. A sudden hot streak could certainly change those numbers in a hurry, but as the sand keeps falling through the hourglass, the club will have to think about how they handle a summer where they are unexpectedly out of contention.

Right-hander Kevin Gausman didn’t mince his words when assessing the situation yesterday, per Rob Longley of The Toronto Sun. “The reality is if we don’t play well, this team will not be together for much longer,” Gausman said. “It might make another year. It might make another year and a half. It might make a couple of months. That’s just the reality.”

There are various ways to play things when dealt a hand like that. Last year’s Cardinals, for instance, decided to only trade away impending free agents and keep the core intact for another shot at contention in 2024. They flipped impending free agents Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery, Chris Stratton, Jordan Hicks and Paul DeJong to add some younger players to the system but kept most of the roster in place, then added to it by signing veterans like Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn.

If the Jays were to take that path, their impending free agents are Yusei Kikuchi, Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier, Yimi García, Daniel Vogelbach, Danny Jansen and Trevor Richards. Kikuchi had a 3.86 earned run average last year and is down to 2.64 this year, so he would certainly have interest. García is striking out 35.3% of batters faced this year and has a 0.47 ERA. Richards has a 2.91 ERA and 29.4% strikeout rate. Trading catchers is a bit tricky midseason because of the challenges of learning a new pitching staff, but Jansen hits enough that he could appeal to a club looking for a guy to serve as a designated hitter and occasional backup catcher. Kiermaier isn’t hitting much this year but could certainly make for a glove-first fourth outfielder on a contending club. Turner and Vogelbach aren’t having great years and would need to get hot to have some trade value.

Even with trading Kikuchi, the club could go into 2025 with a strong starting rotation to build around. Gausman, José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Alek Manoah are still under contract or club control next year, as are Yariel Rodríguez, Bowden Francis, Ricky Tiedemann and Adam Macko.

The larger and more difficult questions for the Jays will involve looking deeper into the future. They have a large number of players who are set to be free agents after 2025, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette being the most notable, though the list also includes Bassitt, Jordan Romano, Chad Green, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Cavan Biggio, Tim Mayza, Erik Swanson and Génesis Cabrera.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com recently explored the idea of Bichette and Guerrero being available and asked an anonymous executive about it. “I don’t think they’re opposed to it,” the executive said of the Jays. “They’ve talked to teams about it. The asks were ridiculous, but I think they’re going to try to retool a lot, and using those guys to get pieces may be the way to do it.”

There’s nothing necessarily surprising in that. Front office members discuss all kinds of trade scenarios that never come to fruition. Given where the Jays are in the standings, it’s logical that general manager Ross Atkins and his team would explore their options. And it’s also sensible that they would set a massive asking price with still over two months until the deadline.

Whether they pull the trigger on a deal for Guerrero or Bichette or both will depend on various factors. The club’s record here in 2024 would obviously be one factor, as would the organization’s perspective on their chances at another shot at contention in 2025. Naturally, the kinds of offers being put on the table will also be significant and it’s fair to wonder what kind of shape they would take right about now.

Bichette hit .299/.340/.487 in the past five seasons for a 127 wRC+ but is slashing just .226/.284/.327 here in 2024, which translates to a 77 wRC+. He has lowered his strikeout rate to 14.8%, which would be a career low by a significant margin, but he has just two home runs so far. His .257 batting average on balls in play is well below the .349 mark he carried into the year but he’s also not squaring the ball up like before. His 4.2% barrel rate this year is less than half his career clip of 9.4%. His exit velocity and hard hit rates still look comparable to previous years, so rival clubs would undoubtedly have interest in acquiring Bichette and getting a bounceback, but the Jays wouldn’t exactly be selling high if these kinds of numbers hold for the next few months.

Guerrero’s not in a hole like Bichette, as he’s slashing .279/.374/.385 for the year. He only has four home runs but is drawing walks at a 12.6% rate. His overall offensive production translates to a 123 wRC+. That’s nothing to sneeze at but it’s also not the elite production he showed back in 2021, when he hit 48 home runs and slashed .311/.401/.601, and it just barely cracks the top ten among qualified first basemen in the league this year. Given the gap between his ceiling and his current performance, perhaps the offers from other clubs won’t match up with what the Jays are expecting.

There’s also the public relations question of whether the club wants to send out the two players who have been the collective faces of the franchise since before they even made it to the major leagues. There are some players putting up intriguing numbers in Triple-A Buffalo this year, with each of Addison Barger, Nathan Lukes, Spencer Horwitz, Steward Berroa, Leo Jimenez, Will Robertson and Orelvis Martinez currently having a 112 wRC+ or higher in more than 100 plate appearances this year. Perhaps there’s an argument for opening up playing time for some of the guys in that group, but none of them have the same level of prospect pedigree nor the name recognition of Guerrero or Bichette, making it a questionable move from both a roster construction angle and a PR point of view.

Perhaps the Jays won’t get an offer that’s enticing enough to make them cross this threshold. Maybe they keep the gang together for another shot in 2025. Perhaps they go on a hot streak and make this all moot. After all, they are only 3.5 games back of a playoff spot at this moment.

But if they stay on the fringes of the race, they have some tricky decisions to make. Trading rentals would be the easy part if they stay behind the rest of the Wild Card pack. Whether to move on to guys with extra control will be a trickier decision. It would likely reduce the club’s chances in 2025 but could be their best path to restocking their farm system, depending on what kind of offers they get. With so many players set to hit free agency either this year or next, there would surely be some temptation to infuse the system with young and controllable talent at this year’s deadline, if the opportunity to do so is there.

They would also free up a bit of payroll space in the process. Bichette is making $11MM this year and will make $16.5MM next year. Guerrero is making $19.9MM this year and will be set for a raise via arbitration into the $25-30MM range next year. The Jays could then pivot to the free agent market, as they don’t have a massive amount on the long-term books. Only Gausman, Berríos, Rodríguez and George Springer are under contract past 2025. By 2027, Berríos is the only significant contract on the books. His deal only goes through 2028 and he can also opt out after 2026.

Taking all of that into account, it will be an important summer for the Blue Jays. In the months to come, the games on the field and the conversations taking place off of it will undoubtedly be playing a huge role in the future of the franchise.

The Journeyman Outfielder Flourishing With The Cubs

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When the Cubs signed veteran outfielder Mike Tauchman to a minor league deal back in January of last year, the deal was barely a footnote in an offseason that saw Chicago splurge on stars such as Dansby Swanson and Cody Bellinger as they attempted to work their way back into the playoff conversation. Even the signings of veteran role players such as Trey Mancini and Eric Hosmer appeared to be more relevant to the Cubs’ chances as the season got underway, although injuries eventually forced the club to select Tauchman’s contract on May 19, 2023.

One year to the day later, the 33-year-old journeyman has emerged as one of the most important pieces in Chicago’s lineup as they renew their efforts to return to the postseason for the first time in a full season since 2018.

Tauchman is perhaps best known for his 2019 campaign, when he enjoyed a breakout season with the Yankees. The then-28-year-old had struggled through 69 plate appearances with the Rockies since making his big league debut back in 2017, hitting just .153/.265/.203 during that time, and was flipped to the Yankees in a minor trade during Spring Training 2019. Despite his lack of success at the big league level, Tauchman received an opportunity with the Yankees midseason when injuries to Aaron Hicks and Giancarlo Stanton left a hole in the Yankees outfield alongside Brett Gardner and Aaron Judge. He made the most of the opportunity and posted 3.1 fWAR in just 87 games as he slashed a whopping .277/.361/.504 with 13 home runs in just 296 trips to the plate.

While his incredible performance in 2019 offered some hope that he was emerging as a big league regular, Tauchman would fall back to Earth over the next two seasons. In 118 games with the Yankees and Giants across the 2020-21 seasons, his power production completely evaporated, leaving him with a paltry .203/.306/.291 slash line despite a still-strong 12.3% walk rate. Tauchman’s struggles ultimately led him to head overseas to play out the 2022 season with the Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization.

His 144-game stint in Korea went quite well, as he slashed a strong .289/.366/.430 in 648 trips to the plate as the club’s starting center fielder. On the heels of his strong performance, Tauchman tried his luck at returning to stateside ball in free agency during the 2022-23 offseason, although he ultimately was unable to find anything more than a minor league pact with Chicago. He held his own in 21 games with the Cubs during Spring Training, hitting a respectable .225/.354/.400 in 48 trips to the plate, but was ultimately unable to crack the club’s Opening Day roster even amid an injury to outfielder Seiya Suzuki as the Cubs instead opted to utilize Mancini and Miles Mastrobuoni in right field to open the season.

Tauchman’s chance would come later in the season, when an injury to Bellinger and the deep struggles of Hosmer led the club to place the former on the injured list and designate the latter for assignment. With a gaping hole in center field and only Ian Happ batting from the left side in the starting lineup, the Cubs selected Tauchman to the roster and installed him as a stopgap option in center field while Bellinger was on the shelf. Tauchman made the most of the opportunity, however, and by the time Bellinger was ready to return to the lineup in June, Tauchman was reaching base at a .415 clip and playing strong enough defense in center that the Cubs opted to temporarily move Bellinger to first base in order to keep Tauchman’s bat in the lineup.

Tauchman remained one of the club’s top on-base threats throughout the remainder of the season, and ended the 2023 campaign having eclipsed 100 games played and 400 trips to the plate in the majors for the first time in his career. His final slash line of .252/.363/.377 showed little power compared to his .227 ISO during his 2019 campaign with the Yankees, but his excellent 14% walk rate was second only to Ian Happ among Cubs hitters and he managed to reduce his strikeout rate to just 21.4%, a far cry from the 27% clip he had punched out at in the majors to that point in his career.

The showing was enough for Tauchman to not only be tendered an arbitration-level contract for the first time in his career but also enter Spring Training assured of a spot on the Opening Day roster. While the returning outfield trio of Happ, Bellinger, and Suzuki combined with the addition of Michael Busch at first base appeared likely to push Tauchman out of the Cubs’s starting lineup as the 2023 season began, a combination of early-season injuries to Suzuki and Bellinger and manager Craig Counsell’s willingness to play Christopher Morel at third base on a regular basis has opened up plenty of opportunities for Tauchman to continue to act as a regular in the club’s lineup this season.

Once again, Tauchman has made the most of his opportunities by delivering an even stronger start than he did in 2023. In 43 games with the Cubs this season, the 33-year-old is slashing an excellent .257/.375/.407 in 168 trips to the plate. He’s seen his walk rate tick up to a whopping 14.9% that’s good for seventh among all qualified regulars in MLB this year, while his strikeout rate has held steady at 21.4%. Most excitingly, Tauchman has even managed to show a bit more power than he did in his first season with Chicago; he’s already clubbed four homers and nine doubles after managing just eight homers and 18 doubles throughout the entire 2023 campaign.

All that adds up to an excellent 130 wRC+ that leaves Tauchman tied with Bellinger for 40th place among all MLB regulars and first among all Cubs hitters this season. It’s been a truly remarkable pair of seasons for Tauchman in Chicago, and if he can continue to produce at this sort of level the Cubs will have plenty of tough decisions on their hands with top outfield prospects such as Pete Crow-Armstrong and Owen Caissie knocking on the door of the majors. Regardless of the outcome of those decisions, Tauchman has done enough over the past calendar year to assure himself continued opportunities at the big league level even as he enters his mid-thirties in a remarkable turnaround for a player many had written off as a one-season wonder half a decade ago.

Journeymen Taking Advantage Of Playing Time With Athletics

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Opportunities in the big leagues can be fleeting. Jackson Holliday of the Orioles came into this year considered the best prospect in all of baseball. Despite being just 20 years old, the Orioles called him up to the majors this year. But after just 10 games, during which he struck out in half of his plate appearances, he was sent back down to the minors.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently took an interesting look at the struggles of several young players, including Holliday, but also Colt Keith, Kyle Manzardo, Henry Davis, Jackson Chourio and Wyatt Langford. Several people in the game seem to agree that the gap in quality between Triple-A and the majors is widening.

There are various theories for why that might be happening. J.D. Martinez suggests that the new rules about smaller rosters in the minor leagues are squeezing out some veteran pitchers, reducing the overall quality of arms on the farm. Guardians manager Stephen Vogt views it similarly. Orioles general manager Mike Elias suggests that the scouting in the majors is so advanced that players will have their weaknesses attacked to a much larger degree than in the minors. Rays manager Kevin Cash told the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast (video on X) that minor league pitchers might be more worried about developing their skills as opposed to results, whereas MLB pitchers will be the inverse.

The reality may be a combination of those factors and more. But whatever the cause or causes, there seems to be a growing consensus among people in the game that the jump to the big leagues is bigger than ever before. For a team like the Orioles that is in a battle in the American League East, this puts them in a tough position. Do you let a player like Holliday learn on the job, improving your team in the long run, even if there’s short-term pain? Or do you construct your roster for the best chance of success today?

For a rebuilding club, the choice is much easier. With a low chance of short-term success, the long-term play is the obvious one. This is one silver lining of not being a competitive club: there’s plenty of playing time for both prospects and former prospects.

This is perhaps something that will become even more important in the current era of baseball. With the recent introduction of the lottery system, rebuilding teams have less access to the top of the draft. For instance, the White Sox have the fifth pick in this summer’s draft. That means they can’t pick higher than tenth next year, even though they are one of the worst teams in baseball right now.

Which brings me around, finally, to the Athletics. Apologies to any inverted pyramid traditionalists who have been pulling their hair out to this point, but I thought all that preamble was interesting framing.

The A’s have been trading away all their best players in recent years and now are naturally giving a lot of playing time to their prospects, either the homegrown variety or the ones they traded for. But they’ve also given some playing time to several former prospects that have bounced around and struggled in other uniforms but are now finding success in green and gold. If these players can keep it up, they could be a part of the next good Athletics’ club or perhaps be traded for yet more prospects, good for the club either way. Let’s take a look at them…

Brent Rooker

Now 29 years old, Rooker was drafted by the Twins in 2017 and made his major league debut with that club in 2020. In April of 2022, he was traded to the Padres alongside Taylor Rogers in a deal sending Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagán the other way. The Friars mostly kept him on optional assignment and then flipped him to the Royals at the deadline for Cam Gallagher. The Royals also gave him more playing time at Triple-A than in the majors before putting him on waivers in November.

Rooker had continued hitting well at Triple-A but not in the majors. He had received 270 major league plate appearances through the moment he was put on waivers, scattered over three seasons and for three different teams, with a batting line of .200/.289/.379. But in 632 Triple-A plate appearances over 2021 and 2022, he hit 48 homers and walked at a 13.3% clip, leading to a .271/.383/.614 line and 149 wRC+.

The A’s put in a claim and have given Rooker plenty of playing time in the past year-plus. He has been making the most of it, to put it mildly. In 663 plate appearances since the start of last year, he has punched out at a 32.4% clip but also launched 40 home runs. His batting line of .253/.336/.509 translates to a 137 wRC+. He isn’t considered a strong defender, even in an outfield corner, but the A’s surely don’t mind as long as he keeps mashing like this. He plays designated hitter most of the time and has produced 3.5 wins above replacement since coming to Oakland, per FanGraphs.

He came into this year with a service time count of two years and 59 days. He will qualify for arbitration for the first time this winter, and the A’s can control him through 2027, their planned final year in Sacramento. They could keep him around and in the lineup for that time or they could trade him whenever they get an enticing offer, depending on how their view the timeline on their return to contention.

Abraham Toro

Toro, now 27, was drafted by the Astros back in 2017 and was up in the majors with them by 2019. The trilingual Québécois infielder got limited playing time in Houston and was traded to the Mariners in 2021 alongside Joe Smith, with Kendall Graveman and Rafael Montero going the other way. He got regular playing time with Seattle in 2022 but struggled. Prior to 2023, the M’s flipped him to the Brewers with Jesse Winker, acquiring Kolten Wong and cash in return. The Brewers mostly kept Toro in the minors, only putting him into nine major league games last season. He was traded to the A’s in November of last year.

At the time of the deal, Toro had strong results in the minor leagues, slashing .294/.387/.480 on the farm from 2021 to 2023 for a 119 wRC+. But he had produced a line of just .211/.282/.354 in 934 major league plate appearances.

However, in 165 trips to the plate for Oakland this year, he’s hit four home runs while slashing .288/.339/.444 for a wRC+ of 130. He’s also stolen a couple of bases while bouncing between the three non-shortstop infield positions. He already has 1.0 fWAR on the year. He qualified for arbitration this past winter, making $1.275MM this year, and has two more passes before he’s slated for free agency after 2026.

Tyler Nevin

Nevin is just a couple weeks away from his 27th birthday. He was drafted by the Rockies in 2015 but never made it to the majors in Colorado. In 2020, the Rox acquired Mychal Givens from the Orioles, sending Nevin, Terrin Vavra and a player to be named later to Baltimore. He got bits of playing time with the O’s in 2021 and 2022 but didn’t do much.

He was designated for assignment by Baltimore and flipped to the Tigers for cash, just before the calendar flipped over to 2023. He didn’t hit much in the majors for the Tigers and spent most of the year on optional assignment, exhausting his final option year in the process. That left him out of options going into 2024, which caused him to ride the transactions carousel for a bit. He was designated for assignment by the Tigers in January of this year and flipped back to the Orioles for cash. He didn’t make Baltimore’s Opening Day roster, which put him into DFA limbo again, this time getting claimed by the A’s.

Nevin’s output this year hasn’t been quite as strong as that of Rooker or Toro, but it’s a similar step forward from a guy who has always hit in the minors and is now improving in the majors. From 2022-23, Nevin hit 22 home runs in 576 Triple-A plate appearances, also drawing walks at a 10.2% clip. That created a combined batting line of .315/.394/.522 and a 134 wRC+. But his major league work over those same two years resulted in a line of just .198/.302/.282.

Oakland has given him 130 plate appearances so far this year, and he’s launched four home runs. His 8.5% walk rate is just a hair below this year’s 8.6% league average. His .235/.315/.365 batting line leads to a 103 wRC+, indicating his offensive output has been 3% above league average overall. As mentioned, it’s not as emphatic as the jump from Rooker or Toro, but it’s still miles ahead of what Nevin did in the last two years. He’s also provided the club with some flexibility, having lined up at all four corner spots, allowing them to rotate their prospects into the lineup with ease. Nevin came into 2024 with just over a year of service time, meaning he still won’t be arbitration-eligible after this year and can potentially be retained through 2028.

Austin Adams

The A’s have also needed plenty of innings covered on the pitching side, and there are interesting developments there as well. The 33-year-old Adams has been bouncing around the big leagues for years. He debuted with the Nationals back in 2017 and has since pitched for the Mariners, Padres and Diamondbacks. Apart from his 2021 season in San Diego, he’s never topped 32 innings in the majors.

That’s partly due to injuries but also due to a significant lack of command. He finished 2023 with 114 1/3 major league innings under his belt with a 4.17 earned run average. He had always been able to punch guys out, carrying a 33.1% strikeout rate into the season — but also a 14.6% walk rate. Additionally, he’d plunked 31 batters, garnering attention in 2021 when he somehow hit 24 batters, leading the league despite throwing far fewer innings than dozens of starting pitchers.

Adams was outrighted by the Diamondbacks at the end of last year and elected free agency. He initially landed with the Mets on a split deal, holding a roster spot for a few months before they outrighted him. Since he had less than five years of service time then, rejecting the outright assignment would have meant forfeiting the remainder of the money on his contract, so he stayed. The Oakland bullpen took a hit when Trevor Gott required Tommy John surgery, so they sent cash to the Mets for Adams just a few days before the season started.

So far, the move to Oakland is working out brilliantly. Adams has a tidy 1.23 ERA through 19 appearances, striking out 32.8% of opponents. More importantly, his 8.2% walk rate is a bit lower than average and much better than his previous career work. He’s also getting ground balls on 51.6% of balls in play. He won’t be able to strand 84.2% of baserunners forever, but his 2.23 FIP and 2.31 SIERA suggest he would have been posting good results even with neutral favor from the baseball gods. With Mason Miller locking down the closer’s role, Adams has become a key setup arm, with 11 holds already this year.

Adams is making just $800K this season, per the Associated Press, which is barely above the $740K league minimum. He came into this year with four years and 150 days of service, meaning he’s slated to finish the season at 5.150, just shy of the six-year mark required for automatic free agency. That means he can be retained for 2025 via arbitration, which could increase the attraction for a club looking for bullpen upgrades at the deadline.

Lucas Erceg

It might be a stretch to call Erceg a “journeyman” in the common use of the word, since he only played for one other club before coming to the A’s. He was drafted by the Brewers in 2016 and was with them until May of 2023. But he has nonetheless taken a circuitous route to where he is today.

He was initially drafted as a third baseman but didn’t hit much in the minors and transitioned to pitching. His first official action on the mound was in 2021, pitching in Double-A. He threw 47 2/3 innings with a 5.29 ERA. As one would expect for someone new to pitching at a relatively high minor league level, control was an issue. Erceg walked 16.4% of batters faced that year, but his 21.1% strikeout rate was reasonable and he also induced grounders at a strong 56.8% rate.

In 2022, he tossed 61 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A with a 4.55 ERA. His 13.1% walk rate and 24.4% strikeout rate were both gradual improvements over the prior season’s marks. He started 2023 back at Triple-A and was posting similar numbers when the A’s traded for him in May, sending cash to the Brewers. Oakland added him to the roster just a couple days later, and he stayed up with the big league club the rest of the season. Erceg logged 55 big league innings with a 4.75 ERA, 27.1% strikeout rate and 14.3% walk rate in 2023.

He seems to have taken a big step forward so far in 2024, with a 3.18 ERA through 17 appearances. His 11.4% walk rate is still high but better than what he showed last year. He’s also punched out 34.3% of batters faced, a huge jump, while keeping 44.4% of balls in play on the ground. He’s earned a couple of saves and seven holds already this year. His fastball has been averaging 98.5 miles per hour, and he’s also thrown a changeup, sinker and slider.

What to do with Erceg will be an interesting decision for the A’s. On the one hand, he came into this season with less than a year of service time. That means he’s still nowhere near arbitration and can be retained through 2029. He also has a full slate of options.

They could hold onto him to be a part of their next competitive window and part of the team that debuts in Las Vegas. On the other hand, his unusual path means that he’s now 29 years old, with an uncertain future on account of his strange circumstances. Given the volatile nature of relievers and the fact that Erceg has essentially just been a windfall for them, they might be tempted to make him available in trades and try to secure players with more stable paths forward.

Michael Kelly

Kelly, 31, was drafted by the Padres way back in 2011. Since then, he has bounced to the Orioles, Astros, Phillies and Guardians, mostly in the minor leagues. He was also in indie ball in 2019 and missed the 2020 pandemic year, before resurfacing in affiliated ball in 2021.

He was a starter for most of the early parts of his minor league career but transitioned to the bullpen more recently. In the Astros’ system in 2021, he tossed 50 innings between Double-A and Triple-A with a 2.70 ERA. He struck out 29.5% of batters while walking 8.6%.

Kelly was with the Phillies in 2022 and had a 5.29 ERA in 51 Triple-A innings, but he still struck out 29.1% of batters faced along with a 10.6% walk rate. He got to make a brief major league debut with Philly that year, tossing four innings in June and July before being outrighted off the roster.

He signed a minor league deal with Cleveland last year and ended up having a fine season: 16 2/3 innings of major league work resulted in a 3.78 ERA, 22.5% strikeout rate and 12.7% walk rate. Those walks were obviously on the high side, but Kelly didn’t allow a home run in that time. He also threw 39 2/3 innings in the minors with a 3.40 ERA.

Nevertheless, Kelly was designated for assignment in November and claimed by the A’s. He’s tossed 24 innings for Oakland so far this year with an ERA of exactly 3.00. His 16.2% strikeout rate is well below average, but he’s limited walks to a 7.1% rate and kept 42.3% of balls in play on the ground. He also seems to be doing a good job of limiting damage done by opponents. Per Statcast, his average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard hit rate are all in the 92nd percentile or better. He’s thrown his sweeper more than 50% of the time both this year and last year. It’s not leading to huge strikeout numbers, but hitters seem to be struggling to square it up.

Kelly came into this season with less than a year of service, meaning he can be retained well into the future. He still has a couple of minor league options as well, meaning he can be easily sent down to the minors if his results take a turn. The A’s could potentially just hang onto him for years to come but would also likely be open to trades, given Kelly’s age and that he was just a waiver claim.

________________________________________

Small-sample caveats need to apply to all of this, as we’re still quite early in the season. But for the rebuilding A’s, it would be a nice victory if even a few of the names in this group could maintain their strong starts. The club traded away Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Chris Bassitt, Sean Manaea, Sean Murphy and others in recent years, with most of the players coming back in those deals having been fairly unimpressive thus far. If they hit the jackpot on a couple of guys in this group from waiver claims and small trades, that would soften the blow of whiffing on those bigger deals. As previously mentioned, rebuilding is mostly painful — but giving shots to journeymen like this is one silver lining, and the A’s have seen some positive results there so far.

Gleyber Torres’ Early-Season Power Drought

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The 2024 season is a pivotal one for Gleyber Torres. The longtime Yankee second baseman will almost certainly head to free agency in November. Torres has publicly angled for an extension on multiple occasions in recent years, but there hasn’t been any indication the team wanted to strike early to keep him beyond this season.

Torres projects as one of the more interesting mid-level hitters in next winter’s class. He isn’t doing himself any favors with his early-season performance, though. Torres is out to a .208/.289/.273 start through 174 plate appearances. He didn’t hit his first home run of the season until May 2 and hasn’t collected multiple hits in a game since April 29. His overall production has hovered around replacement level.

It’s a surprisingly poor start for a player who has emerged as one of New York’s more consistent offensive contributors. Torres was a decidedly above-average hitter, by measure of wRC+, in four of his first six MLB seasons. Last year was among the best of his career. He connected on 25 homers with a .273/.347/.453 slash over a personal-high 672 trips to the plate.

Torres didn’t have the gaudy slugging numbers he posted back in 2019, when he popped a career-best 38 longballs in the so-called “juiced ball” season. Yet he cut his strikeout rate to a personal-low 14.6% mark and posted the highest on-base percentage in any full season of his career. There’s an argument the 2023 season was Torres’ best after accounting for the significantly depressed offensive environment compared to ’19.

While there are a few months to turn things around, he’s amidst a rough opening to his walk year. Torres’ triple slash stats are all easily at personal lows. His rate of hard contact (a batted ball with an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater) has dropped 10 percentage points relative to last season. After squaring up a solid 40.3% of batted balls a year ago, he’s down to 30.4% thus far. That ranks 228th among 264 qualified hitters, per Statcast.

Torres is not only making decidedly less impactful contact, he’s making less contact of any kind. His strikeout rate has jumped to 23.6%, which would be the highest since his rookie season. He’s swinging through more pitches both within and outside the strike zone. It’s not disastrous — Torres’ strikeout and walk marks are right around league average — but it’s a major step back from where he was last season.

This isn’t quite the worst stretch of Torres’ career. He had a slightly worse month and a half coming out of the All-Star Break back in 2022. Torres rebounded with a power explosion that September that presaged his strong ’23 campaign. It’s certainly not out of the question that he puts this recent slump behind him.

League-wide power numbers tend to improve in the summer as the weather warms. That has typically been the case for Torres, who has a career .369 slugging percentage in March and April and has been north of .400 in every other month. It’s not uncommon for him to take some time to find his power, although that doesn’t typically come with the kind of swing-and-miss he has shown this year.

It’s imperative he put things together fairly quickly if he’s going to land the kind of contract his camp presumably envisioned coming into the season. Torres’ profile is driven by his offensive ability. While there’s value in being able to play up the middle, he’s a fringy defender at second base. It’s not likely that teams would consider moving him back to shortstop, where he had well below-average grades and hasn’t played regularly since 2021.

Torres was already looking to buck an unfavorable market trend towards second basemen. As shown on the MLBTR Contract Tracker, there are only a handful of recent free agent deals for second basemen that exceeded $50MM. Marcus Semien’s seven-year, $175MM pact stands as an anomaly that Torres was never going to match — and Semien had a plausible argument as a potential shortstop before the Rangers signed Corey Seager a few days later. Mike Moustakas (four years, $64MM) and DJ LeMahieu (six years, $90MM) are more realistic comparison points, though those players could also play third base.

Teams have generally been more willing to invest in second basemen via extensions (e.g. Jose Altuve, Andrés Giménez, Ketel Marte, Jake Cronenworth, Jeff McNeil) than on the open market. That doesn’t seem likely to happen with the Yankees, who could be content to turn the position to Oswald Peraza after this season.

Torres’ biggest selling point once he gets to the open market is his youth. He’ll play all of next season at 28. It’s likely his camp would try to push for a deal in the range Andrew Benintendi received at the same age (five years, $75MM). That contract has aged very poorly for the White Sox, but he’d been a similar caliber of hitter as Torres leading up to his signing. Benintendi was a Gold Glove winner who plays a less important position.

However, the market for mid-tier hitters last offseason wasn’t as robust as it had been in the previous winter (when Benintendi signed). Jeimer Candelario and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. each landed three-year guarantees in the $14-15MM annual range. As with Torres, they’d generally been good but not elite hitters who weren’t offering immense defensive value. Neither Candelario nor Gurriel was eligible for a qualifying offer. If Torres turns things around, he could receive one from the Yankees.

Torres will need to start hitting soon for that to be a factor. He has already played his way out of the leadoff spot to the bottom half of the order. It’s too early for Aaron Boone to consider pulling him from the lineup entirely, but the Yankees should be locked in a tight race with the Orioles throughout the summer. They can’t afford to live with no production from second base all season, and Peraza is on a rehab stint from a Spring Training shoulder strain. How Torres performs over the next two months will be a key factor in both New York’s chance of winning a tough division and his appeal to teams when he hits the market.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Severino, Blue Jays, James Wood

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Welcome to another edition of my subscriber mailbag!  If you're wondering where this paywall thing came from, please read about that here.  Today's mailbag gets into Luis Severino's solid start, the future of the Blue Jays, the trajectory of Nationals prospect James Wood, and assessing free agent mega-contracts.

Dmitry asks:

I noticed Luis Severino is doing much better this year. GB rates ticked up, along with his barrels % and overall FB runs value. What's different this year? Did the Mets unlock something Matt Blake couldn't? Better health? Just needed a change of scenery?

Severino has reinvented himself as a groundball pitcher.  His 56% groundball rate this year ranks sixth among all qualified starters.  In a sense it's good that he's done so, because as with last year's disaster season, his strikeout and walk rates have remained unimpressive.  I usually start by looking at a pitcher's K-BB%, and Severino's 11.0% mark is pretty bad and basically the same as it was when he posted a 6.65 ERA last year.

Most of Severino's success came in 2017-18, when he put up 11 WAR across 384 2/3 innings for the Yankees.  He missed almost all of 2019 due to a shoulder/lat injury, and then had Tommy John surgery in February 2020.  His TJ recovery included a setback along the way due to a shoulder injury. Severino's layoff between MLB games was just shy of two years.

Severino's 2022 season gave hope that he could return to his pre-Tommy John form.  Most of his velocity returned, and even though he missed more than two months due to another lat strain, his strikeout and walk rates were reminiscent of the Severino of old over a 102 inning span.  It was enough to convince the Yankees to pick up his $15MM club option for 2023.  Severino's 2023 season was so bad that he remarked last summer,"Right now, I feel like I am the worst pitcher in the game, no doubt about it."

As you might expect, Severino tinkered with his repertoire heading into 2024.  According to SNY's Andy Martino, Severino went to Driveline.  Martino wrote, "There, he split his hard slider into a cutter and a sweeper. Neither was as powerful as his old slider, but the two offerings combined to show hitters different speeds and different looks."  Martino added, "Severino has added ride to his velocity, creating a more powerful fastball. Played off his new cutter/sweeper mix, which features variances in speed, and a changeup and sinker that helps him get ground balls, and Severino looks like a more complete pitcher."  Martino provided a third reason as well, suggesting that Severino tipped his pitches often as a Yankee and has cleaned that up with the Mets.

Indeed, Severino has started using a sinker often.  He's using it 16.7% of the time so far this year, according to Brooks Baseball.  His career high for sinkers was 2.6% last year.  He explained to Tim Britton of The Athletic, "Just to have that pitch in my pocket that can help me get a groundball here, get a double play, get out of an inning with one pitch instead of striking out two guys. I was just thinking about how I can be more productive and save more pitches."  An open-mindedness toward sinkers, which have gone out of style in baseball, is a conscious choice for the Mets, which pitching coach Jeremy Hefner explains in Britton's article.

Severino has a 3.00 ERA as of this writing, and if he stays healthy and lands under 4.00 for the season, his one-year deal will have been a big success for Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns.  There's probably too much emphasis on that 3.00 ERA through these first 45 innings, though.  I think a pretty big correction is coming, because a portion of Severino's success comes from a .250 BABIP and 8.3% home run per flyball rate.  He's a bit less interesting with a league average strikeout rate and subpar walk rate, even as one of the league's best groundballers.  Severino's SIERA sits at 4.11, though Statcast's expected ERA is solid at 3.59.  So he's not allowing a lot of hard contact and could be a 2-3 WAR type moving forward.  What Severino is doing this year seems a bit like what Marcus Stroman did last year, but with more velocity.

I took a look at recent starting pitcher seasons with a K-BB% of 12 or below and a groundball rate of 50% or better.  There is a survivorship bias, because if that combo isn't working for a pitcher, he'll be removed from the rotation.  But this is a weird combination, especially for a pitcher who throws 96.  Here are a few comps other than Stroman's 2023:

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Checking In On 2024’s Reliever-To-Rotation Experiments

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The 2023-24 offseason saw several teams go outside the box to add to their rotation mix by announcing plans to convert an established reliever into (or back into) a starting pitcher. It’s not a new concept by any means, of course, but it’s always notable when a player who’s found some success in one pitching role is shifted to the other — be it one-inning relievers stretching out to join a rotation or struggling starters shifting to the ’pen and hoping to find new life as their stuff plays up.

In some instances — e.g. Jordan Hicks, Reynaldo Lopez — the pitchers in question signed lucrative multi-year deals as part of this planned pivot. For others, this role change comes amid their original six seasons of club control and could greatly impact their earnings in arbitration and/or in free agency down the road.

Now that we’re about a quarter of the way through the year, it seems like a good time to check in on how some of these role changes are playing out. Readers should note that this rundown will focus on pitchers who pitched exclusively or near-exclusively out of the bullpen last season. Pitchers like Boston’s Garrett Whitlock (who started 10 games last year and nine in 2022) or Tampa Bay’s Zack Littell (who moved to the rotation last summer and finished out the ’23 campaign as a starter) aren’t the focus here so much as arms who were more strictly confined to short relief recently.

Since so many of these transitions are going to bring about clear workload concerns, we’ll check back in periodically throughout the season. For now, here’s how things are going through about 25% of the schedule.

Jordan Hicks, RHP, Giants

Hicks’ transition from flamethrowing late-inning reliever to … well, flamethrowing starting pitcher has gone seamlessly thus far. It’s only nine starts and 48 innings, but the 28-year-old boasts a 2.44 ERA in his move to the rotation. A career-low 19.9% strikeout rate is a red flag, but Hicks’ 8.2% walk rate is lower than the league average and a career-best mark as well. His 56.2% grounder rate isn’t quite as high as the 60% mark he carried into the season but is still more than 10 percentage points above average.

As one would expect, Hicks’ blazing sinker has lost quite a bit of velocity now that he’s not throwing one max-effort inning at a time. His sinker sat at 100.2 mph last year but is clocking in at 96 mph in 2024. Even with four fewer miles per hour on his primary offering, however, Hicks has more than enough velocity to keep hitters off balance.

Hicks has also fully incorporated the splitter he tinkered with in 2023 into his arsenal this year. After throwing it just 1.6% of the time last season, he’s thrown 22.5% splitters in 2024. Opponents may as well not even bother swinging at the pitch. Hicks has finished off 42 plate appearances with a splitter, and hitters have posted a .079/.167/.105 slash in those instances. Opposing batters have chased the pitch off the plate at more than a 35% clip, and Hicks boasts a huge 42.9% whiff rate on the pitch, per Statcast.

The big question for Hicks, as it is for virtually any pitcher making this transition, is how his arm will hold up once he begins pushing it into uncharted waters. Hicks has never topped 77 2/3 innings in a big league season. That mark came way back in his 2018 rookie showing. The 105 frames Hicks tallied as a minor league starter in 2017 are the most he’s ever pitched in a full season. He’ll be approaching his MLB-high after he makes another four starts or so and will be on the cusp of a new career-high about 10 to 11 starts from now — when there’s still roughly half a season left to play. Hicks wasn’t even especially durable as a reliever, only surpassing 35 appearances in two of his five prior big league seasons. The early returns are outstanding, but the real test will probably come in late June and into July.

Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, Braves

Unlike Hicks, Lopez is no stranger to starting games at the MLB level. He started 73 games for the White Sox from 2018-20 after coming over from the Nationals alongside Lucas Giolito and Dane Dunning in the Adam Eaton trade. The first of those three seasons went well, but Lopez stumbled in 2019-20 and began to transition to the bullpen in 2021.

The shift to a relief role seemed to suit the right-hander well. His already impressive velocity played up even further. Lopez averaged better than 95 mph as a starter in ’18-’20 but saw that number jump to 97.1 mph in 2022 and a massive 98.4 mph in 2023. Over those two seasons, he pitched to a sharp 3.02 earned run average. His rate stats were somewhat uneven, as he showed pristine command (4.3% walk rate) but an only slightly higher-than-average strikeout rate in ’22 before jumping to a huge 29.9% strikeout rate in ’23 … but pairing it with a bloated 12.2% walk rate. Taken together, however, Lopez gave the Sox 131 1/3 innings with that 3.02 ERA, 31 holds, six saves, a 27.4% strikeout rate and an 8.5% walk rate.

When he signed with the Braves for three years and $30MM, that generally fell in line with expectations for what he’d command as a late-inning reliever. However, it quickly became clear that the Braves were going to stretch Lopez back out. There was plenty of skepticism — myself very much included, admittedly — but the experiment has gone better than anyone could’ve imagined.

Thus far, Lopez has not only been the Braves’ best starter but one of the most effective starters in the league. He’s pitched 35 1/3 innings of 1.53 ERA ball. His velocity has dipped back down to his 2018-20 levels, sitting 95.6 mph, but that’s to be expected working out of the rotation. His 25.5% strikeout rate is better than average but not elite. His 9.9% walk rate could stand to come down. But Lopez is throwing more curveballs than ever before (10%), has largely abandoned his changeup and is keeping the ball on the ground at a career-best 41.1% rate. That’s a bit shy of the 42.8% league average but noticeably higher than the 35% clip he posted during his time with the White Sox.

The uptick in grounders is one reason that Lopez is yielding a career-low 0.51 homers per nine innings. The other is a 5.4% homer-to-flyball rate that he almost certainly can’t sustain. That fluky HR/FB and an abnormally high 88.7% strand rate are part of the reason metrics like SIERA (3.87) and xFIP (3.79), which normalize HR/FB, tend to peg him for some regression. Still, even if he’s bound to see his ERA tick up by a couple runs, Lopez has looked great through his first six turns.

Time will tell just how his arm can handle a return to his 2018-19 workloads, but the early results are excellent — and the importance of his breakout is magnified by the loss of ace Spencer Strider to season-ending elbow surgery. Notably, Lopez exited last night’s start with some tightness in his back, but manager Brian Snitker suggested after the game that he’s likely to make his next start.

A.J. Puk, LHP, Marlins

On the other side of the coin, the Marlins’ efforts to move Puk back into a starting role quickly went down in flames. Puk, a former No. 6 overall pick who worked as a starter in the minors, looked excellent this spring. He pitched 13 2/3 innings over four starts and two earned runs with a 23-to-4 K/BB ratio. The transition could hardly have gotten out to a more promising start.

In his first four regular-season starts, Puk also pitched 13 2/3 innings. The similarities stop there. Opponents bludgeoned Puk for 14 earned runs on 19 hits and a stunning 17 walks. He fanned only 12 of his 77 opponents (15.6%).

Miami placed Puk on the injured list on April 20 due to left shoulder fatigue. He returned from the injured list just yesterday. Despite myriad injuries in their rotation, the Fish have already pulled the plug on the rotation experiment for Puk, announcing that he’ll be back in the bullpen following his stay on the injured list. It’s a role he thrived in over the past two seasons, logging a 3.51 ERA, 29.4% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate while piling up 22 saves and 19 holds.

If Puk returns to form as a reliever — he was particularly impressive in ’23, striking out 32.2% of opponents against a 5.4% walk rate — the ill-fated rotation gambit will be little more than a footnote in what hopefully ends up as a strong overall career as a reliever. If Puk’s struggles persist, however, there’ll be plenty of second-guessing the decision to take one of the team’s best relief arms and stretch him out despite a litany of injury troubles that had combined to limit Puk to only 147 2/3 innings in his entire career prior to this season.

Garrett Crochet, LHP, White Sox

Crochet has worked to a pedestrian earned run average on the season due to a bevy of home runs allowed, but the former first-rounder who’s drawn comparisons to Chris Sale since being drafted by the White Sox has turned in elite strikeout and walk numbers. The 4.63 ERA looks unimpressive, but Crochet has fanned more than a third of his opponents (34.2%) against a pristine 4.8% walk rate.

Crochet boasts an excellent 14.5% swinging-strike rate and is averaging 96.9 mph on his heater. That’s a ways from the 100.2 mph he averaged in six innings as a rookie in 2020, but Crochet has had Tommy John surgery since that time and is working in longer stints now as opposed to bullpen work in ’20. This year’s velocity actually slightly exceeds his average velocity from working purely as a reliever in 2022-23.

In terms of workload concern, Crochet is up there with Puk in terms of extreme uncertainty. He entered the season with a total of 73 big league innings since his No. 11 overall selection in 2020 and is already at 46 2/3 innings on the young 2024 campaign. So long as he keeps missing bats and limiting walks anywhere near his current levels, the run-prevention numbers will come down — FIP and SIERA peg him at 3.33 and 2.37, respectively — but it’s anyone’s guess as to how Crochet will hold up. He skipped the minor leagues entirely, so even if you add in his whole minor league body of work, that’d only tack last year’s 12 1/3 rehab innings onto his track record. Going from a total of 85 1/3 professional innings over a four-year period to a full starter’s workload is bound to have some bumps in the road, but so far Crochet looks quite intriguing as a starting pitcher.

Jose Soriano, RHP, Angels

The Angels nearly lost Soriano back in 2020, when the Pirates selected him in the Rule 5 Draft. At the time, Soriano was wrapping up his rehab from 2020 Tommy John surgery and could’ve been stashed in a rebuilding Pittsburgh bullpen upon his reinstatement from the injured list. A setback in his recovery early in the season prompted another wave of imaging and revealed a new tear, however. Soriano underwent a second Tommy John surgery on June 16, 2021. He was eventually returned to the Angels.

Unfortunate as that back-to-back pair of surgeries was, Soriano’s injury troubles allowed the Angels to keep him in the system. They’re now reaping the benefits. The flamethrowing righty made 38 relief appearances last season and pitched to a quality 3.64 ERA with a huge 30.3% strikeout rate — albeit against a troubling 12.4% walk rate. Soriano averaged 98.6 mph on his heater last year and wound up picking up 15 holds, as the then-rookie righty increasingly worked his way into higher-leverage spots.

The Angels announced early in spring training that Soriano would be stretched out as a starter. His ramp-up continued into the regular season. His first two appearances this year came out of the bullpen but both spanned three innings. He’s since moved into the rotation and has looked quite impressive. Through his first seven starts, Soriano touts a 3.58 ERA with an above-average 24.8% strikeout rate and an outstanding 62.8% ground-ball rate. Even though he’s working in longer stints, he’s improved his fastball and is now sitting at 99.3 mph with it. His 12.4% walk rate still needs improvement, but the returns here are quite promising.

Soriano only pitched 65 1/3 innings between the minors and big leagues last year, and he’s already at 38 2/3 frames on the 2024  season. He’s never pitched more than 82 1/3 innings in a professional season. We’ll see how he fares as he pushes past those thresholds, but there’s a lot to like with this rotation move — even though it’s garnered far less attention than some of the others around the game.

Tyler Alexander, LHP, Rays

The Rays obviously have a knack for finding hidden gems and converting unheralded arms into viable starting pitchers — hey there, Zack Littell — and Alexander is an example of their latest efforts to do so. The left-hander has started for the Tigers in the past and functioned in a swingman role, but the Rays picked him up in a low-cost move following a DFA in Detroit with the idea of stretching him out. Since it’s Tampa Bay, not all of Alexander’s “starts” have been, well, actual starts. He’s followed an opener on multiple occasions already, but he’s followed that one- or two-inning table-setter with at least four innings each time out.

Overall, Alexander has made eight appearances and averaged just under five frames per outing (39 2/3 total innings). He’s sitting on a pretty rough 5.45 ERA, thanks in part to a six-run drubbing at the hands of the Yankees last time out (though he did at least complete seven frames in that start, helping to spare the Tampa Bay bullpen). Alexander’s 19.1% strikeout rate is about three percentage points shy of average. His 6.9% walk rate is about two points better than average. However, he’s taken his longstanding status as a fly-ball pitcher to new heights in 2024, inducing grounders at just a 30.4% clip.

Alexander’s 14.5% homer-to-flyball ratio is only a couple percentage points north of average, but because of the sheer volume of fly-balls he’s yielding, he’s still averaging more than two taters per nine frames. Opponents have posted an ugly 11.8% barrel rate against him (ugly for Alexander, that is). If he can’t cut back on the fly-balls and/or start finding a way to avoid the barrel more regularly, it’s going to be hard for Alexander to find sustained success. The Rays don’t convert on every dart-throw — much as it’s fun to joke to the contrary — and so far the Alexander experiment hasn’t paid off.

Bryse Wilson, RHP, Brewers

Wilson’s move to the rotation wasn’t necessarily planned, but injuries up and down the Brewers’ staff forced the issue. Five of his past six outings have been starts and he’s sporting an eye-catching 1.78 ERA in that span. The rest of the numbers in that stretch are less impressive. Wilson has a tepid 17.3% strikeout rate in that stretch but has walked an untenable 13.5% of opponents. Opponents have posted a hefty 45.7% hard-hit rate (95 mph or more) against him during that time. Were it not for a .191 BABIP and 92.2% strand rate, the ERA wouldn’t look nearly as rosy. Metrics like FIP (4.64) and SIERA (5.34) are quite bearish.

Wilson is still scheduled to take the ball on Saturday in Houston, but his recent stretch of run-prevention doesn’t seem sustainable without some improvements in his K-BB profile.

The Red Sox’ Surprising Rotation Anchors

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The Red Sox are out to a decent start in 2024. Despite dropping five of their last six, they’re above .500 at 19-18. They’re currently in third place in a division where most observers felt they’d finish fourth or fifth. That’s a credit to a pitching staff that leads the majors with a 2.75 earned run average.

Boston’s bullpen looked solid coming into the year, yet the rotation was more of a question mark. It wasn’t that the group was devoid of talent. It was light on pitchers with a proven track record as starters, though, particularly after Lucas Giolito went down for the season in Spring Training. That left the Sox relying on a handful of pitchers who’d been productive as relievers to shoulder important rotation jobs. They’ve delivered thus far, with Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford out to particularly excellent starts.

Houck and Crawford are the only members of Boston’s season-opening rotation who haven’t spent time on the injured list. Garrett Whitlock, Brayan Bello and Nick Pivetta have all missed time. (Pivetta returned on Wednesday and Bello could be back by the weekend.) Houck wasn’t even a lock for the Opening Day starting five until Giolito’s injury. By all accounts, the Sox rotation should have struggled to this point.

Instead, they easily lead the majors with a 2.33 ERA. That’s at least partially a reflection of their usage. Only the White Sox — whose rotation has been one of the league’s worst — have allowed their starters to face an opposing hitter for a third time in an outing less often. Alex Cora is getting to the bullpen early, which takes some of the higher-pressure at-bats off the rotation. Yet that doesn’t entirely detract from how effective Boston’s starters have been.

Crawford, 28, has appeared in parts of four seasons. He held a rotation spot from June onward last year, turning in solid if unexciting results. Over 23 starts, he worked to a 4.51 ERA with an above-average 26.2% strikeout rate. It was enough for the Sox to guarantee him a rotation spot even when they expected Giolito would be healthy. He went into 2024 with a season-opening starting job for the first time in his career.

The right-hander has doubled down on last year’s success. Through eight starts, he carries a 1.75 ERA that ranks seventh among qualified starters. He has fanned 24.3% of opponents and is generating swinging strikes at a solid 12.3% clip. Crawford has held opponents to two or fewer runs in seven of his appearances.

Crawford probably isn’t an ace. He’s not missing bats at the level associated with the game’s truly elite pitchers. He’s a fly-ball pitcher who’ll surely allow a few more home runs over the course of the year. Crawford looks like a legitimate mid-rotation arm, though. He’s attacking hitters with more offspeed stuff — part of a team-wide philosophical shift under new pitching coach Andrew Bailey — and has done an excellent job staying off barrels. That’s true against left-handed and righty batters alike, making it difficult for opponents to play matchups and allowing him to at least work through the batting order twice in a start.

That has also been true for Houck, at least this season. Concerns about the right-hander’s low arm angle and heavy reliance on a sinker/slider combination have led some evaluators to project him to the bullpen going back to his college days in Missouri. It’s difficult to avoid huge platoon splits with that kind of profile. Left-handed batters can identify the ball early in his delivery. For most of his career, Houck hasn’t had a pitch to keep opposing southpaws at bay.

Houck kicked between starting and relief over his first three-plus seasons. He worked out of the rotation for all 21 of his appearances last year but struggled to a 5.01 ERA. Handling left-handed hitters was indeed an issue. Through the end of the 2023 season, Houck stifled righties to a .214/.282/.283 batting line behind a 27.4% strikeout rate. Lefty batters turned in a much more productive .251/.343/.420 slash while striking out 22% of the time. Lefties drew more walks and hit for much more power against him.

That hasn’t been the case this season. While Houck has still been better against right-handed hitters in 2024, that’s more a reflection of his dominance against everyone than any kind of issue handling southpaws. Houck is holding left-handers to a .227/.279/.258 slash in 104 plate appearances. His 21.2% strikeout rate isn’t great, but he has more than halved his walks and pushed his ground-ball percentage north of 60%. Even if they’re still putting the ball in play at a decent clip, lefty batters aren’t doing any kind of damage. (Houck has completely befuddled right-handed opponents, limiting them to a .203/.234/.284 mark behind a huge 31.2% strikeout rate.)

As is the case with Crawford, Houck has found that new level by moving away from his heater. Houck has essentially doubled the usage of his splitter against left-handed batters while scaling back on his fastball and cutter. The split isn’t a new pitch — he has had it throughout his career — but he’s getting more downward action on it. The uptick in its deployment suggests Houck is far more comfortable with the pitch than he’d been before this year.

Whether Crawford and Houck can maintain an upper mid-rotation pace or better over a full schedule remains to be seen. Neither pitcher has yet reached 130 major league innings in a season. Opposing lineups will adjust to their heavier reliance on offspeed stuff, and league-wide offense generally improves as the weather warms. They’ve each been among the best pitchers in the majors through six weeks, though. These kinds of breakouts are necessary for a team to outperform expectations and stick in the playoff mix against the odds.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

The Hot Start Of Trevor Williams Raises Interesting Questions

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Coming into 2024, Trevor Williams was something of an afterthought on the Nationals’ roster. But six weeks into the 2024 season, he has emerged as one of the more interesting members of the club, thanks to his utter dominance so far this year.

Entering the campaign, most baseball fans outside of the D.C. area probably weren’t thinking of Williams at all. Fans of the Nats were probably more excited about young players like MacKenzie Gore, James Wood or Dylan Crews. Williams was a veteran stopgap who didn’t draw much attention. He had some serviceable years in the past but struggled over 2019 and 2020, getting bumped into a swing role in 2021 and 2022.

The rebuilding Nationals signed him to a two-year deal going into 2023 with a $13MM guarantee. They had traded away many of their most established players and needed a veteran innings eater. Patrick Corbin’s contract was aging incredibly poorly while young guys like Gore, Josiah Gray and Cade Cavalli had not yet been fully established at the big league level.

The first year of the Williams deal was quite unremarkable. He did take the ball 30 times and chew up 144 1/3 innings, but with a 5.55 earned run average. His 8% walk rate was around league average but he struck out just 16.8% of batters faced and allowed 34 home runs.

After that performance, he didn’t even seem to be guaranteed a rotation spot on the 2024 club. Back in December, manager Dave Martinez said that Williams “right now is our fourth or fifth starter,” per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. That seemed to leave the door open to further additions bumping him out of the starting staff, but those never came. The Nats had a fairly quiet winter, which left Williams to open in the rotation alongside Gore, Gray, Corbin and Jake Irvin.

So far, that’s working out great for both Williams and the Nats. Through seven starts and 36 2/3 innings, he has just a 1.96 ERA. His 21.1% strikeout rate is still a bit below average but is a big jump from last year. He’s getting ground balls at a 49% rate and hasn’t yet allowed a home run this season.

There are some caveats to keep in mind here. Seven starts is obviously a small sample size and it’s incredibly unlikely he can continue posting results this strong. His .270 batting average on balls in play and 79.5% strand rate are both a bit on the fortunate side, as his his 0% home run per fly ball rate. His 2.50 FIP and 4.04 SIERA both suggest he hasn’t been quite as good as the 1.96 ERA might make you think.

Perhaps this is just a lucky stretch and regression is just around the corner. This kind of strong performance in a small sample isn’t unprecedented with Williams. Using the Baseball Reference Span Finder shows that his most dominant stretch of seven starts came with the Pirates in 2018. He finished that season particularly strong, with a 2.33 ERA in July, 1.16 in August and then 2.20 in September/October.

But there are also reasons for optimism, particularly since Williams changed his pitch mix by adding a sweeper. According to Statcast, he first threw the pitch last year but only 73 times, 2.8% of his pitches thrown with five other offerings coming in more frequently. But he’s up to 101 sweepers this year, a 17.9% clip. His four-seamer is still his go-to at 205 thrown, but the changeup is second at 103, meaning the sweeper is neck-and-neck with the change for his primary offspeed offering.

The results have been excellent so far, with opponents hitting just .167 against the sweeper and whiffing at a huge 41.2% rate. Even the Pitching Ninja is taking notice. By throwing more sweepers, he’s been able to threw fewer four-seamers and curveballs. As mentioned, the four-seamer is still is primary pitch, but he’s dropped the usage from 43.2% to 36.4%, while his curveball has gone from 6.9% down to just 0.5% this year. Of the 34 home runs he allowed last year, 21 of them were four-seamers and three more were curveballs, leading to respective slugging percentages of .563 and .629. Throwing them less was surely wise and has been paying off.

Changing up the mix seems to be throwing hitters off. Williams had a 10.2% barrel rate last year that is down to just 4% here in 2024. Last year’s average launch angle of 15.9 degrees is down to 11.5, which aligns with his increased ground ball rate and his refusal to let the ball leave the park. His results on his changeup and sinker have also been better than last year, perhaps due to the sweeper giving hitters something else to think about.

Again, regression is likely coming because he’s had a bit of luck so far. The league will also surely adjust to his new repertoire, which should lessen his ability to flummox batters with his arsenal. But even if he steps back from this ace-like performance a bit, it could still have impacts for him and the club.

Williams will be heading back out to free agency this winter and improved numbers will naturally lead to more interest and more earning power. His contract will be limited by his age, since he’ll be going into his age-33 season. But pitchers can still find decent money at that age or older, as shown in the MLBTR Contract Tracker.

Williams won’t be able to get near established aces like Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander. But Seth Lugo’s trajectory isn’t terribly dissimilar from that of Williams. Lugo was bumped from starting into a relief role for a while, spent a year with the Padres re-establishing himself as a legit starter and then secured a three-year, $45MM deal with the Royals going into his age-34 season. Tyler Anderson got a three-year, $39MM pact after a breakout in his age-32 campaign while guys like Marcus Stroman, Nathan Eovaldi, Jose Quintana, Nick Martinez, Ross Stripling, Kenta Maeda and Alex Cobb secured two-year deals between $20MM and $37MM.

Of that group, only Anderson and Eovaldi received qualifying offers. Stroman and Cobb received QOs earlier their careers and were no longer eligible, and Quintana wasn’t eligible prior to signing his Mets deal since he was traded in the prior season. But Lugo, Martinez, Stripling and Maeda were allowed to hit free agency without a QO. That perhaps suggests Williams is a long shot to get one himself, even if he continues putting up good numbers, but Anderson’s situation shows it’s at least something the Nats may consider. Anderson had a 4.62 career ERA before breaking out with the Dodgers in 2022. He posted a 2.57 ERA, got the QO and still found his aforementioned three-year deal from the Angels, netting the Dodgers an extra draft pick.

Putting over $20MM on the table for a guy they just signed to $13MM over two years, a deal they undoubtedly regretted halfway through, would be a big risk for the Nats. But they also have almost nothing on the books thanks to their ongoing rebuild. Corbin’s ill-fated deal is finally done after 2024 and Strasburg’s retirement allowed the club to pay out the remainder of his deal with deferred payments. Joey Gallo’s deal has a buyout on a mutual option. Keibert Ruiz signed an eight-year extension with a low average annual value, and that’s it in terms of future commitments.

Of course, the qualifying offer decision will only have to be made if he lasts all year with Washington. The club is currently 18-18 and still in the thick of the National League Wild Card standings, but the Nats have a -8 run differential and are just 5-9 against teams that are above .500. Based on their poor results in past seasons and the fact that they weren’t really expected to compete this year, it’s entirely possible that they slip back in the coming months.

If that happens, then it’s far more likely that the Nats simply trade Williams for whatever he can fetch at the deadline. The return likely wouldn’t be huge for a 32-year-old rental, but pitching is always in demand and he will find interest if he continues pitching well. That scenario would be good for Williams, allowing him to pitch for a team in contention while also taking the QO off the table.

There are still many ways this could play out and many factors that will play a role in the path forward. Can Williams keep this up or will the league adjust? Will the warm summer air simply allow more balls to cruise over the fence? Will the Nats hover around the Wild Card race or will they fall out of it? Time will provide the answers to those questions, but the fact that Williams is even this interesting is quite remarkable, considering where things stood about six months ago.

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