The Phillies are still fighting for their playoff lives in the NLDS against the Dodgers, but whether L.A. completes the sweep today or Philadelphia mounts a comeback and makes it all the way to the World Series, the offseason is looming. Five days after the World Series concludes, teams will have to make their first major roster-related decisions of the offseason when club options come due. The majority of these options lack much intrigue, but the Phillies face the interesting call of deciding whether to pay lefty reliever Jose Alvarado $9MM for his services next year or offer him a $500K buyout and send him to free agency.
The 30-year-old Alvarado has accomplished quite a lot in parts of nine seasons as a big leaguer. Among 88 relievers to log 300 or more innings since the start of the 2017 season, Alvarado’s 3.45 ERA (37th) and 3.50 SIERA (40th) both rank in the top half while his 3.21 FIP (15th), 29.7% strikeout rate (14th), and 51.8% groundball rate (13th) all rank in the top-15. That look at his overall body of work casts Alvarado as a very solid relief arm, if a step below the elite tier. In a market where even one year deals for quality setup men often break eight figures, a $9MM option on a pitcher like that seems like an easy choice to exercise, particularly given Philadelphia’s difficulties finding quality replacements for key pieces like Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez this past offseason.
Things may not necessarily be that simple with Alvarado, however. While Alvarado’s overall stats are quite good, he’s experienced a great deal of year-to-year volatility throughout his career. He’s been utterly dominant, as he was when he pitched to a 1.74 ERA in 42 appearances with the Phillies back in 2022. Other years, however, he’s been more pedestrian than anything else. Of his nine seasons in the majors, just five of them have seen him post an ERA below 4.00.
That volatility makes him far less reliable than many other late inning arms around the game. With closers like Edwin Diaz and Devin Williams expected to be available this winter, it’s at least plausible the Phillies could feel their funds are better spent elsewhere. That’s all before considering Alvarado’s recent history, which has been ugly both on and off the field. Even when looking at his performance the past two years in a vacuum, his numbers haven’t been especially exciting. Since the start of the 2024 campaign, Alvarado has pitched to a 4.00 ERA (107 ERA+) with a 3.74 FIP.
Those are the numbers of a decent middle reliever, but not someone you would trust in a high leverage situation. The elephant in the room that is Alvarado’s PED suspension earlier this year further complicates the decision Philadelphia faces. It’s impossible for anyone other than the Phillies themselves to know what sort of impact Alvarado’s suspension had within the clubhouse, but from a purely performance-related standpoint the suspension calls into question how well the southpaw will be able to sustain his previous success going forward. A string of eight appearances down the stretch where he posted a 7.50 ERA while surrendering three home runs in six innings before his season ended due to a forearm strain did little to inspire confidence headed into next year, as well.
Even with all those potential red flags acknowledged, however, it’s still not hard to make the case for the Phillies to pick up Alvarado’s option. The club will surely be focused on filling the void impact players like Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto will leave in the lineup, and it will be a pricey endeavor to either re-sign or replace these free agents. The rotation may not be the stabilizing force that it once was, as Ranger Suarez is also a free agent, Aaron Nola struggled badly this year, and Zack Wheeler is still recovering from surgery to correct thoracic outlet syndrome.
This all adds more pressure on the bullpen to perform than ever before in the team’s current window. Even in Alvarado’s weakest seasons, he’s been a viable middle relief arm, and it’s nearly impossible for him to be a worse investment than Jordan Romano and his 8.23 ERA were this season. Perhaps, then, locking in the combination of upside and a solid enough floor that Alvarado provides will make sense for the team as they look to 2026 with only Matt Strahm, Orion Kerkering, and Tanner Banks locked into the bullpen behind closer Jhoan Duran. Even if the Phillies don’t want to roster Alvarado next year, there’s the distinct possibility that another club in need of a left-handed arm for their bullpen might be interested in working out a trade for Alvarado given his relatively affordable salary and substantial upside.
How do MLBTR readers think the Phillies will handle Alvarado’s upcoming option? Will they keep him in the fold to either work out of their bullpen next year or try to trade this winter, or will they cut bait and let him walk in free agency? Have your say in the poll below:
