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Trade Deadline Outlook: San Diego Padres

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Our team-by-team Trade Deadline Outlook series continues with the Padres. San Diego's top-heavy roster makes it easy to identify the priorities. If they remain resistant to trading either of their top prospects, they could pivot to under-the-radar or rental trade targets.

Record: 52-44 (48.3% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, Nationals, Cubs, Rays, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Angels, Mets, Blue Jays, Mariners

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Catcher, left field, starting pitcher, utility infielder

San Diego has had the same top few needs going back to the offseason. Free agent departures of Kyle Higashioka and Jurickson Profar left them without answers at catcher and in left field, respectively. The rotation depth has been a question since Joe Musgrove underwent Tommy John surgery. The late-offseason Nick Pivetta signing has been massive, but the back of the rotation still feels tenuous. Low-cost pickups in catcher and left field have not panned out, leaving the Padres to address both positions over the next two and a half weeks.

The Padres have had arguably the worst catching tandem in MLB. Elias Díaz and Martín Maldonado have combined to hit .195/.255/.306 over 327 plate appearances. Neither player rates highly as a pitch framer. While both players, especially Maldonado, have a strong reputation for the unquantifiable aspects of catcher defense (e.g. game-calling, managing a pitching staff), the production has not been there. It speaks to how far former top prospect Luis Campusano has fallen in the organization's eyes that he hasn't gotten an opportunity this year.

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Poll: Who Will Win The 2025 Home Run Derby?

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The 2025 home run derby takes place tonight at 7pm Central as part of the 2025 All-Star festivities in Atlanta. The field of eight consists of…

Per MLB.com, here is the format:

“In the first round, the eight players each have three minutes or 40 pitches (whichever comes first) to hit as many homers as possible. There is also a bonus period for each player that lasts until they record three outs (any swing that doesn’t result in a home run) within the period. If a player hits a home run of at least 425 feet within the bonus period, the period is extended until the player records a fourth out.

The players with the top four homer totals advance to the semis. In the event of a first-round tie, the player who hit the longest home run during the round advances.

In the semifinals, the format shifts to “knockout style,” with No. 1 vs. No. 4 and No. 2 vs. No. 3. The seeds are determined solely by the number of home runs each player hit in the first round. Players will have two minutes or 27 pitches in the semifinals and finals, and home run totals from the first round don’t carry over.

Ties in the semifinals or finals are broken by successive three-swing “swing-offs” until there is a winner.

The winners of the two semifinal matchups advance to the finals, where the limits are reduced to two minutes and 27 pitches. The player with the most home runs after that period is crowned Home Run Derby champion.

One final note: Each batter is entitled to one 45-second timeout in each of the three regulation periods, but timeouts can’t be called during the bonus periods or tiebreakers.”

According to Yahoo Sports, $2.5MM will be given out as prize money. The winner gets $1MM and the runner-up $750K. The rest of the money will be shared amongst the other participants. Last year’s champion was Teoscar Hernández of the Dodgers but he is not defending his title. He spent some time on the IL in May due to a groin strain and doesn’t want to risk reaggravating that injury, per Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. He also fouled a ball off his foot here in July and missed a few games.

Of this year’s eight participants, Olson is the only one with previous derby experience. Ronald Acuña Jr. was originally in the lineup to represent the home team but he was scratched with some back tightness, so Olson has stepped in. In 2021, Olson hit 23 home runs in the first round but was edged out by Trey Mancini’s 24, with that year’s format being a head-to-head bracket style. He has 276 career home runs in regular season play, including 17 this year.

Olson should be the hometown favorite but Buxton might also get some support since he grew up in Georgia. Per Betsy Helfand of the Pioneer Press, Buxton’s son is very excited to bring him a towel and Gatorade during the event. Buxton has 154 career home runs, including 21 so far in 2025.

Raleigh is having a monster season, with 38 home runs already in the bank. The record for most home runs in a season by a primary catcher is Salvador Perez with 48, so Raleigh is on pace to destroy that. Raleigh’s previous career high was his 34 homers last year, so he already eclipsed that before the break.

Chisholm spent some time on the IL but has 17 home runs in just 65 games this year. Cruz only has 16 this year but strikes out a lot while his Statcast data is off the charts, so perhaps his stuff will play up in the derby setting. Rooker hit 30 home runs in 2023, 39 last year and is up to 20 already this year. Caminero and Wood are each playing a full major league season for the first time. Caminero has 23 home runs and Wood 24.

Here are two polls for MLBTR readers, the first asking who you want to win the derby and the second asking who you think will win.

Photo courtesy of Kevin Jairaj, Imagn Images

Trade Deadline Outlook: Seattle Mariners

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The Mariners are up next in our team-by-team Trade Deadline Outlook series. Seattle last made the postseason in 2022 and has had numerous near misses in recent years under president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and general manager Justin Hollander. The Mariners' vaunted young rotation has long been the talk of baseball, but the M's also have an excellent farm system they can leverage to improve the roster over the next three weeks.

Record: 49-45 (Playoff probability 61.4%, per FanGraphs)

Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, Nationals, Cubs, Rays, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Angels, Mets, Blue Jays

Buy Mode

Potential Needs: First base, third base, late-inning reliever

The Mariners needed offense throughout the winter but were afforded little to no financial resources to make it happen. Dipoto and Hollander dealt with substantial payroll restrictions for a second straight winter, reportedly trying to stretch a budget of about $15-16MM to acquire as many as three different bats. The resulting additions -- Jorge Polanco, Rowdy Tellez, Donovan Solano -- haven't paid off much. Polanco has been quite productive but has been relegated to DH duty for much of the season due to injuries. Tellez was released last month. Solano has hit better over the past five weeks or so but has been a liability for most of the year.

On top of those underwhelming additions, the M's have been plagued by injuries. Victor Robles suffered a shoulder injury that'll cost him more than half the season. Luke Raley missed more than a month with an oblique injury. Second baseman Ryan Bliss ruptured his biceps in April and will likely miss the remainder of the season.

Fortunately for the Mariners' baseball operations staff, it seems ownership has come around on spending to further bolster the lineup. It's not clear just how far north they're willing to take payroll, but even a relatively modest increase could be a boon for a club that could clearly use help at two corner spots. So, where can the Mariners turn?

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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MLBTR’s new deadline preview series (available to Front Office subscribers) continues with a look at the Blue Jays, who held a 26-28 record on May 27 and seemed to be headed for another also-ran season.  However, the Jays have since won 29 of their last 40 games, pushing Toronto to the top of the AL East.  With the postseason now looking like a very realistic possibility, the Jays have plenty of options available to them as they consider roster upgrades.

Record: 55-39 (89.3% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, Nationals, Cubs, Rays, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Angels, Mets

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Starting pitching, relief pitching, outfield depth, bench depth, possibly third base

Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, and Chris Bassitt have been invaluable to the Blue Jays, as the steadiness and durability of the top three starters helped keep the pitching staff on track amidst some early chaos at the back end of the rotation.  Minor league signing Eric Lauer has a 2.78 ERA over 55 innings, and his entry into the fourth starter's spot was a key element of Toronto's success over the last six weeks.  Max Scherzer has pitched only 23 innings due to his ever-present thumb problems, and it remains to be seen whether or not Scherzer can remain healthy enough to contribute as a full-fledged starter or perhaps as a piggyback starter in front of a long reliever.

Even with Alek Manoah aiming to return from UCL surgery at some point in August, Manoah's own struggles since Opening Day 2023 make him far from a possible savior.  The Jays could obviously use an extra arm to help stabilize the starting five, as if Lauer starts to regress or one of the top three starters gets injured, the pitching situation could quickly go south.  That would in turn put more pressure on the bullpen, which itself could use some reinforcement after tossing a lot of innings over the first half.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: New York Mets

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MLBTR's team-by-team look at the upcoming deadline continues with the Mets. Things have cooled after a hot start, thanks to a mounting number of injuries. But the club is still in playoff position and should be adding this month.

Record: 53-41 (83.1% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, Nationals, Cubs, Rays, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Angels

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Starting pitching; bullpen help, particularly from the left side; center fielder; infielder; catcher

Life comes at you fast in the baseball world. That's especially true in this era, where pitchers are pushing the human body to its limits. On June 12th, the Mets had a record of 45-24 and a 5.5-game lead over the Phillies in the National League East. They had a healthy rotation and a couple of guys on rehab assignments, almost ready to come off the injured list. At that moment, it seems like Frankie Montas was going to get squeezed to the bullpen and Paul Blackburn to the trade block.

On that June 12th date, Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported that the Mets were getting trade interest on Blackburn due to their apparent rotation surplus. But moments after that report came out, Kodai Senga collapsed on the field with an apparent injury. He would be placed on the IL with a hamstring strain shortly thereafter. Not long after that, Tylor Megill also hit the IL, in his case due to an elbow sprain. A little over a week later, Griffin Canning ruptured his Achilles' tendon and Blackburn hit the IL with a shoulder impingement.

That barrage of injuries has quickly turned a surplus into a deficit and hampered the club's results. They have gone 8-17 over the past few weeks and are now a game and a half behind the Phils in the East. They are still firmly in contention, holding a Wild Card spot, but now seem likelier to add starting pitching.

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Poll: Who Should The Nationals Pick First Overall?

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The 2025 draft is just a few days away, and the Nationals hit the jackpot over the winter when they won the draft lottery and were selected to pick first overall despite entering the lottery with just a 10.2% chance of nabbing the top pick. Since then, a disappointing season has led to the dismissal of longtime GM Mike Rizzo, meaning that interim GM Mike DeBartolo will be piloting the organization when it makes this weekend’s crucial pick. With hundreds of players set to be drafted to begin their pro careers in the coming days, who should the Nats stake their future on? A look at some of the top options:

Ethan Holliday

Holliday is an 18-year-old shortstop out of Stillwater HS in Oklahoma. Holliday has long garnered plenty of attention thanks to his family; he’s the son of seven-time All-Star Matt Holliday and the brother of 2022 first overall pick Jackson Holliday. Will the younger Holliday brother follow in the footsteps of his sibling and be selected first overall? There’s certainly a strong argument for it. Holliday is considered the top prospect in the draft by both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America.

A slugger who stands at a projectable 6’4”, Holliday receives rave reviews for both his batting eye and ability to generate easy power to all fields but does suffer from some swing-and-miss concerns at the plate. While he’s listed as a shortstop, few expect him to remain there long-term given his size and room to grow physically. More optimistic scouts see him as a player who could remain a plus defender at shortstop, while others see a future in the outfield or at first base. Holliday is generally viewed as the consensus top offensive talent in the draft, but his timeline to the majors might not be the best fit for a Nationals team that already has a big-league ready core of James Wood, CJ Abrams, and MacKenzie Gore earning service time in the majors.

Seth Hernandez

A 19-year-old right-hander from Corona HS in California, Hernandez is in many ways a pitching mirror of Holliday. The hurler lacks Holliday’s familial connections to the majors, but has drawn rave reviews from scouts for years and is viewed as a player with all the tools to be a prototypical ace. Hernandez has a four-pitch mix led by a mid-90s fastball that can touch triple-digits and a changeup that’s already universally viewed as a plus offering, alongside a curveball and slider that are both viewed as potentially above average pitches. Aside from Hernandez’s strong stuff, he also sports impressive control for his age and is viewed as having a strong makeup. Ranked as the #2 prospect in the draft by Baseball America and #3 by MLB Pipeline, Hernandez’s ace upside is more than enough to justify the Nationals considering him for the top pick even though he could have a long road to the majors as a prep pitcher.

Kade Anderson

The consensus top college player available in this draft, Anderson is a 21-year-old left-hander pitching for LSU. Anderson’s fastball typically sits in the low-to-mid 90s and maxes out at 97 mph, but the main draw of his arsenal is his trio of secondary offerings. Both his curveball and slider are viewed as above-average pitches, and while his changeup garners more mixed reviews, some scouts view it as the most impressive secondary in his arsenal and all agree it at least has the potential to be an average offering that helps keep right-handed hitters honest. Anderson also features above-average control and is viewed as a high-floor arm likely to be a starter in the big leagues long-term.

The fact that he’s already had Tommy John surgery is a potential red flag, although some teams may not be especially bothered by that in a sport where elbow surgery is increasingly becoming the expectation for pitchers. The #2 prospect in the draft according to MLB Pipeline and #4 according to Baseball America, Anderson is viewed as having the same ace-level upside as Hernandez but could be much quicker to the majors. That could be attractive to the Nationals, especially if they end up opting to go under-slot with their first pick to take bigger swings later in the draft.

Other Options

While the aforementioned trio of prospects figure to get the most attention this weekend, they aren’t the only players the Nationals could feasibly consider selecting first overall. Eli Willits is a prep shortstop who would be the youngest first-overall pick in history if selected, but Baseball America views him as the #3 talent in the entire draft and his well-rounded profile could make him an attractive under-slot option for the Nats. Jamie Arnold is a lefty hurler at Florida State who offers a more impressive fastball than Anderson, though he has just three pitches and hasn’t needed to use his changeup much as an amateur. Aiva Arquette is a shortstop at Oregon State and is viewed as the consensus top college bat in the draft, but is seen as having far less upside than someone like Holliday or even Willits despite confidence in his ability to stick at shortstop.

Who do MLBTR readers think the Nationals should take with the top pick in this year’s draft? Have your say in the poll below:

Trade Deadline Outlook: Los Angeles Angels

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The Angels have hung around the Wild Card mix, exceeding most expectations. Their -57 run differential is fourth-worst in the American League, but they're within two games of .500 and only three games out of a playoff spot. While this still doesn't look like a good team, they may have played well enough to convince the front office to add in hopes of snapping the game's longest active postseason drought.

Record: 45-48 (3.4% playoff odds, per FanGraphs)

Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, Nationals, Cubs, Rays, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Infielder, mid-rotation starter, high-leverage relief, left-handed bat

The Angels are not going to add a full-time designated hitter, where they have Mike Trout playing every day. Zach Neto and Nolan Schanuel have shortstop and first base secured, respectively. They're probably not going to add a catcher, though they could give more frequent playing time to Travis d'Arnaud in place of the struggling Logan O'Hoppe.

Beyond that, there are a lot of different ways to deepen the position player mix. The outfield is superficially set. Taylor Ward, Jo Adell and Jorge Soler are playing every day from left to right. Ward leads the team with 21 home runs, while Adell has been on a tear lately and is the team's most productive hitter overall. Soler is having a poor season, though, and there's an arguable redundancy to the Angels' current outfield.

All three players hit right-handed (as does Trout, who will be eased back into outfield work following the All-Star break, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register). Each of Ward, Adell and Soler are power bats with questionable on-base skills. Adell is a below-average defensive center fielder. He's playing there out of necessity and fits better in a corner. Maybe that's not something that can be addressed this summer, but they'd ideally have a better defender in center and find room for Adell in left or right field.

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Which Other Draft Picks Are Eligible To Be Traded Before Sunday?

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The Rays made an “early” strike in deadline season yesterday, shipping off their Competitive Balance Round A selection (No. 37 overall) in Sunday’s draft to acquire righty Bryan Baker from the division-rival Orioles. Baker, 30, has had his two worst outings of the season in his final Orioles appearance and last night’s Rays debut — which came just hours after he was “shocked” to learn he was traded and boarded a last-minute flight to meet his new team in Boston — but carried a 2.58 ERA and 33.3% strikeout rate through July 5. He comes to the Rays with three additional seasons of club control, as well.

Following the trade, O’s general manager Mike Elias acknowledged that Thursday’s trade was “earlier than my comfort level” but that the timing of the draft and strength of the return pushed him to make a deal sooner than he’d have preferred (link via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com). It’s feasible that other general managers/president of baseball operations feel similar pressure if presented with opportunities to add an extra pick over the next two-plus days.

As a refresher, Competitive Balance picks are the only picks in the annual amateur draft that are eligible to be traded. They can only be traded one time, meaning the pick the Orioles received for Baker — and the picks the Dodgers, Guardians and Red Sox received in trades of Gavin Lux, Josh Naylor and Quinn Priester, respectively — are now locked in place for those clubs. There are still a handful of selections that could be traded, however.

Here’s a rundown of the picks in Competitive Balance Rounds A and B. MLBTR has confirmed via industry sources that the picks held by the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets in Round A are ineligible to be traded, as they’re technically first-round picks that were dropped down into Competitive Balance Round A as penalty for exceeding the luxury tax by more than $40MM. Similarly, the picks held by the Rays and Brewers in Round B are ineligible to be traded due to the fact that they are compensation for failing to sign last year’s picks in Competitive Balance Round B. Picks that are eligible to be traded are in bold; those ineligible to be moved are in strikethrough font. The deadline to trade any of these eligible picks is 4pm ET on Sunday — two hours prior to the start of this year’s amateur draft.

Round A

  • No. 33 overall: Red Sox (acquired from Brewers in exchange for RHP Quinn Priester)
  • No. 34: Tigers
  • No. 35: Mariners
  • No. 36: Twins
  • No. 37: Orioles (acquired from Rays in exchange for RHP Bryan Baker)
  • No. 38: Mets
  • No. 39: Yankees
  • No. 40: Dodgers
  • No. 41: Dodgers (acquired from Reds in exchange for INF/OF Gavin Lux)
  • No. 42: Rays (acquired from A’s in exchange for LHPs Jeffrey Springs, Jacob Lopez)
  • No. 43: Marlins

Round B

  • No. 66 overall: Guardians
  • No. 67: Rays (compensation for unsigned pick in 2024)
  • No. 68: Brewers (compensation for unsigned pick in 2024)
  • No. 69: Orioles
  • No. 70: Guardians (acquired from D-backs in exchange for 1B Josh Naylor)
  • No. 71: Royals
  • No. 72: Cardinals
  • No. 73: Pirates
  • No. 74: Rockies

The Tigers are the only clear buyer with a pick that can be traded, and it’s a prominent one. The Mariners and Cardinals are only one game out of a Wild Card spot in their respective leagues. Seattle is expected to act as a buyer and has been on the hunt for corner infield bats and late-inning bullpen help. The Royals (3.5 games), Twins (4) and Guardians (5) are all within five games of a Wild Card spot.

Fans would largely welcome the advent of additional selections becoming eligible to be traded, but that’s not in the cards for now. MLBPA executive director Bruce Meyer joined Foul Territory earlier this week and told hosts Scott Braun, Erik Kratz and A.J. Pierzynski that the union is in favor of trading draft picks and has unsuccessfully raised the issue in past waves of collective bargaining (video link, draft pick talk coming around the one hour, 12-minute mark).

“This union has consistently been in favor of teams being able to trade draft picks,” said Meyer. “It would help competition. We think it would help small-market teams that have those valuable draft picks. They should have the flexibility to trade them if it’s in the best interest of the team. I think many teams would agree, but the league for whatever reason has, to date, been against allowing clubs the ability to trade Rule 4 [amateur] draft picks. We proposed it last time. It was rejected. I don’t want to commit to much for the next round of bargaining, but I feel pretty confident we’ll propose that again, because we think it’s actually beneficial to competitive balance.”

It should be noted that virtually any proposal in collective bargaining comes with some give and take. Meyer’s comments only portray one side of the discussion, and it’s not clear whether anything else was attached to that proposal. Regardless, it’s notable that the union’s lead negotiator has signaled a desire to again broach the subject of draft pick trades when the two sides return to the table to hammer out a new collective bargaining agreement.

Trade Deadline Outlook: New York Yankees

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MLBTR's team-by-team look at the upcoming deadline continues with the Yankees. The Bronx Bombers are always trying to win the World Series and this year will certainly be no exception. The American League East is tight, as is the Wild Card race, but the Yanks are obviously going to do everything they can to strengthen the roster for the playoff push.

Record: 51-41 (89.8% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Starting pitcher, third baseman, relievers

Before the 2025 season even began, the Yankee rotation got blown up. Luis Gil was diagnosed with a lat strain in early March, meaning he was destined to miss a decent chunk of the first half, at least. A few days later, even more ominous news came out, with Gerrit Cole getting some tests done on his elbow. The worst-case scenario eventually came to pass, as he underwent Tommy John surgery.

Cole is going to miss the entire season. Gil could be back in the mix at some point but is still on the injured list and hasn't begun a rehab assignment. Despite those two major challenges, the remaining starters have held the club above water. The rotation has a collective 3.69 earned run average this year, good for eighth in the majors. Lefties Max Fried and Carlos Rodón are each earning their salaries this year. Guys like Clarke Schmidt, Will Warren and Ryan Yarbrough have done good work supporting Fried and Rodón. Marcus Stroman just returned from the IL, but Yarbrough and Schmidt both landed on the shelf recently. In Schmidt's case, he will undergo Tommy John surgery and won't be back this year.

Looking ahead to the club's playoff rotation, Fried is a lock. Rodón would be as well, though his injury track record is well known at this point. Warren tossed around 130 innings in each of the past three years and is up to 90 so far this season. Will there be any questions about his playoff effectiveness as he pushes into the 150-175 range? Stroman wasn't trusted in the club's playoff push last year and they tried to trade him in the winter. Presumably, he hasn't increased his standing in 2025, since he's spent most of the year injured. Cam Schlittler is getting a chance in the majors now but won't have much time to prove himself prior to the deadline. Adding a starter is therefore a priority and general manager Brian Cashman has confirmed as much.

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Trade Deadline Outlook: Atlanta Braves

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On June 18, Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said Atlanta is "not selling." They've gone 7-11 and lost two of their three best starting pitchers to long-term injuries since then. They're 11 games under .500 and have dropped behind the Marlins in the NL East standings. The front office may not have wanted to sell, but the team has left them no choice.

The more interesting question is whether they feel it's necessary to make a major shakeup. They could move a couple rentals and run it back with mostly the same roster in 2026. That'd be a signal they view this season as an injury-wrecked aberration. That wouldn't address some of the issues -- a lack of rotation depth, zero production from the bottom half of the lineup -- that have tanked their '25 season. The Braves have committed to the same core with a boatload of long-term extensions. Do they feel they need a significant change to that group?

Record: 40-51 (5.1% playoff odds, per FanGraphs)

Other series entries: Rockies, Giants, Phillies, Pirates, Astros, Marlins, Athletics, Orioles, White Sox, Nationals, Cubs, Rays, Dodgers

Sell Mode

Impending Free Agents: Marcell Ozuna, Raisel Iglesias, Rafael Montero

The Braves only have three rentals, none of whom would be a massive trade chip. Montero is a league average middle reliever who could be cashed in for a lottery ticket prospect. Ozuna and Iglesias are bigger names and more interesting trade targets, but they've each had inconsistent seasons and are quite expensive.

Iglesias, 35, is playing on a $16MM salary. The veteran righty lost his hold on the closer role last month. He has performed better since moving into more low-leverage situations, rattling off 12 1/3 frames of four-run ball since the beginning of June. Iglesias has not allowed a home run in that stretch, a big turnaround after he gave up seven longballs through the season's first two months. He still has a strong strikeout and walk profile, but he's carrying a career-worst 4.81 earned run average over 33 2/3 innings on the year. The Braves would probably need to pay down part of the contract to move him for a semi-notable prospect.

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