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Offseason Outlook: Athletics

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An awful May ensured the A's were headed for another losing season. They made arguably the biggest sell-side trade at the deadline, sending Mason Miller to San Diego for a prospect package headlined by potential franchise shortstop Leo De Vries. The A's have quietly been one of the best teams in the American League for the final two months of the season. They're in for a second straight offseason focused primarily on pitching. It's not an easy task while they're in a Triple-A home ballpark that plays as one of the most hitter-friendly venues in the game.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Lawrence Butler, CF: $62.25MM through 2031 (including $2MM in yet to be paid signing bonuses and buyout of '32 club option)
  • Brent Rooker, DH: $48MM through 2029 (deal includes '30 club/vesting option)
  • Luis Severino, RHP: $47MM through 2027 (including $5MM signing bonus to be paid in January; can opt out after '26)
  • Jeffrey Springs, LHP: $11.25MM through 2026 (including buyout of '27 club option)

2026 financial commitments: $45.75MM
Total future commitments: $168.5MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Wynns, Waldichuk

Free Agents

For the second straight year, the A's go into the offseason with positive momentum despite finishing with a losing record. They've been a better second half team in both 2024 and '25. That alone probably doesn't hold a ton of predictive value, but it's fair to have more optimism next spring than it was last offseason.

It appears ownership is satisfied with the direction of the rebuild. The A's extended manager Mark Kotsay last offseason on a deal that runs at least through 2028. General manager David Forst is reportedly on an expiring deal. However, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported this morning that he's in talks with owner John Fisher about his future. Rosenthal suggests he could agree to at least a two-year extension that runs up to the team's expected opening of its Las Vegas ballpark.

They're on track to go into Vegas with a very good offense. Nick Kurtz has shredded major league pitching. Jacob Wilson is coming off the first of what should be multiple All-Star appearances at shortstop. Shea Langeliers and Tyler Soderstrom have taken steps forward offensively. Soderstrom also showed he's capable of playing better defense than expected in left field after being forced off first base by Kurtz's arrival. Even as Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler took steps back after fantastic 2024 seasons, this lineup runs six deep. The 18-year-old De Vries is a dynamic talent at the top of the farm system who has a good shot to pair with Wilson as an elite middle infield tandem down the line.

The A's don't have the same kind of young corps anchoring the pitching staff. Neither the Luis Severino signing nor the Jeffrey Springs trade stabilized the rotation as hoped (though Severino has been quite good down the stretch). Both pitchers have managed back-of-the-rotation results overall without missing a ton of bats. Neither has fared well at the A's temporary home park in Sacramento.

Severino blasted the arrangement when speaking with Brendan Kuty of The Athletic in June. Asked about his stark home/road splits, the righty said his road numbers were better "because we play in a big-league stadium on the road." He added that pitching in Sacramento is "not the same atmosphere. We don’t have a lot of fans. Our clubhouse is in left field. So, when we play day games, we have to just be in the sun."

The criticism was bizarre considering the A's went beyond general expectations to sign Severino to a three-year, $67MM contract last offseason. That price presumably baked in a cost for pitching in a minor league facility on a team without a true home city. Unsurprisingly, USA Today's Bob Nightengale suggested that Severino's comments were not well-received by A's brass. The team would've welcomed a chance to trade him at the deadline. Between the contract and Severino's lack of swing-and-miss stuff both at home and away, they were unable to find a taker.

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Poll: Will The Pirates Trade Mitch Keller This Winter?

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This trade season, a number of controllable players were heavily rumored to be on the market who ultimately did not end up getting traded at all. Among that group, one of the most surprising players who wound up staying put with their current club was Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller. The Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Mets, and Cubs were all connected to Keller over the summer, and at one point a proper fire sale seemed to be on the table for Pittsburgh.

A deal didn’t come to pass with any of those clubs, however. Keller, Bryan Reynolds, and even pending free agents like Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Andrew Heaney were still in Pittsburgh come August 1. On some level, that seems to reflect the front office’s belief in the team as a potential short-term competitor, even in spite of its major flaws. GM Ben Cherington told reporters just recently that he believes the team can contend in 2026, so it stands to reason that a player like Oneil Cruz might not be on the market at this point, even if there were reasons to believe a team could’ve pried him away a few months ago.

That doesn’t necessarily mean room to make trades goes out the window, however. In that same conversation with reporters, Cherington acknowledged that upgrading the offense on the trade market was on the table for the Pirates heading into this winter. While Pittsburgh has one of the richest farm systems in the majors from which they could deal if so inclined, an organization that regularly runs some of the lowest payrolls in MLB may not want to part with packages rich with prospect capital to acquire just one or two hitters. That could make trading for the MLB roster an attractive alternative, and when looking at the players already in the majors it’s not hard to see why Keller in particular could be a piece it would make sense for Pittsburgh to part with.

While the right-hander looked quite good in the first half of the 2025 season, his numbers began to falter after the All-Star break. In his last 11 starts, he’s posted a 5.87 ERA and 5.21 FIP across 53 2/3 innings of work. Brutal as those numbers may be, when zooming out to look at his full-season stats, one sees that this tough stretch really only brought him back to what he’s established as his career norm at this point. For three seasons in a row now, Keller has made between 31 and 32 starts with an ERA between 4.20 and 4.25 with a FIP between 3.80 and 4.10. That’s remarkably consistent for a starting pitcher in today’s game. And while that works out to roughly league average production, average results with that volume and consistency are still valuable.

Valuable as Keller might be in theory, he’s not exactly a fit for the Pirates’ needs in practice. Paul Skenes offers plenty of consistency at the front of Pittsburgh’s rotation with much more impressive production. And while Keller is the only other established arm in the club’s starting five, a bevy of intriguing young arms like Jared Jones, Bubba Chandler, and Braxton Ashcraft appear poised to step into larger roles as soon as next year. With so many young players who have mid-rotation upside or better in the upper levels of the farm system starting to get their feet wet in the majors, perhaps sinking nearly $17MM in salary next year into a player who provides only average results doesn’t make much sense for a team that RosterResource suggests will finish 2025 with a payroll of less than $87MM.

That’s not to say he wouldn’t be valuable to other clubs, however. Keller’s contract is arguably slightly below market rate for a pitcher with his impressive consistency. Former Pirate Jameson Taillon received a four-year, $68MM contract from the Cubs during the 2022-23 offseason after two seasons as a Yankee with similar results to Keller’s recent work. And Yusei Kikuchi’s roughly league average work with the Mariners, Blue Jays, and Astros over the years earned him nearly $64MM over three years with the Angels just last offseason. By that metric, the just over $55MM Keller is owed over the next three seasons looks like something of a bargain for a large- or even mid-market club in need of rotation help, or it’s at least roughly market rate.

If the Pirates are able to work out a trade for a young, controllable hitter involving Keller and then reinvest Keller’s salary into position player talent, they could significantly retool their lineup by dealing the right-hander away. Of course, that course of action would risk the possibility that Keller puts it all together in the future and delivers a full season like his first half (3.48 ERA, 3.39 FIP) at some point after the trade, at which point the Pirates would have likely sold low on the righty. Keller won’t turn 30 until April of next year, so a step forward isn’t impossible to imagine even in spite of his year-to-year consistency. Trading Keller would also be a big gamble on the team’s young rotation talent, of whom only Skenes has proven himself truly reliable at this point. Perhaps that could be eased by signing another low-cost veteran like Heaney to offer some stability, but that would eat into the budget for improving the club’s offense.

How would MLBTR readers approach Keller this offseason, if they were in the Pirates’ shoes? Would they aggressively shop him for offense, or would they hold onto him for 2026 unless overwhelmed by an offer? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Jack Flaherty’s Player Option

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Entering the 2024-25 offseason, Jack Flaherty was viewed by many as one of the most attractive starting pitchers on the market. He was coming off a brilliant season (3.17 ERA in 28 starts with the Tigers and Dodgers) and had just won a World Series ring, but the things that truly made Flaherty look like an attractive signing relative to the rest of the crowd were ancillary factors. He wasn’t attached to draft pick compensation via the Qualifying Offer, he was younger than most free agent starters as he hit the market ahead of his age-29 season, and he wasn’t projected for the sort of megadeal that top arms with longer track records like Max Fried and Corbin Burnes were expected to get.

Many fans were dreaming on the idea of bringing Flaherty in as an arm with ace-level potential who could fit their team’s budget, but those hopes and projections did not account for just how concerned rival clubs would be about Flaherty’s health status. The Yankees pulled out of a trade that would’ve allowed them to acquire the righty from the Tigers at last year’s deadline due to concerns about his medical records. Perhaps those concerns seeped into Flaherty’s free agent market, as a winter that was generally favorable to starting pitchers saw the right-hander forced to settle for a short-term deal rather than land the nine-figure deal many expected him to get entering the winter.

After returning to the Tigers on a two-year, $35MM guarantee once his market dried up, Flaherty turned in a somewhat middling performance this year. While he started out strong with similar numbers to last year through his first six starts, the right-hander went on to struggle badly in both May and June, and entered the month of July with a 4.80 ERA and a 4.59 FIP. Those numbers painted Flaherty as barely a league average starter. When he escalated his player option for the 2026 season from $10MM up to $20MM, it seemed like maybe he would simply exercise that option and hope for better luck next season on a healthy salary.

His performance in the second half has complicated things somewhat. In 14 starts since the beginning of July, Flaherty has a 4.35 ERA that remains pedestrian at best. A closer look at his numbers in the second half reveals a lot of reason for optimism, however. With a .344 BABIP allowed and a strand rate of just 69.5%, it’s clear that the right-hander has had some real misfortune when it comes to batted ball and sequencing luck, both things that are generally out of a pitcher’s control. In terms of the things Flaherty does have the most control over, he’s actually excelled. He’s struck out 26.5% of his opponents, good for 13th among qualified starters in that time frame, with a 7.8% walk rate. His 18.8% K-BB rate is in the top 20.

When looking at ERA estimators under those same parameters, Flaherty’s 3.67 SIERA ranks 18th and only five starters have outperformed his 3.04 FIP: Paul Skenes, Trevor Rogers, Cristopher Sanchez, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and George Kirby. Impressive as that company is, the fact that Flaherty has remained healthy this year may be even more important given those previous questions about his medicals. He’s made 30 starts this year for the first time since 2019, and just the second time of his career. His next start against the Guardians on Wednesday will most likely see him surpass last year’s innings pitched total as well.

Flaherty’s excellent second half peripherals and encouraging health this year might make opting out seem like an obvious choice for the right-hander, but the inescapable reality of his situation is that his actual run prevention this year simply hasn’t been very good. The right-hander sports a 4.60 ERA headed into what’s likely to be his final start of the regular season, and that figure ranks just 40th among 51 qualified starters in the big leagues this year. Landing the sort of nine-figure deal Flaherty was hoping to get last offseason off the back of a platform season like that doesn’t seem terribly realistic.

Even with a top-dollar free agent deal likely out of reach, though, there’s still a real argument for exercising the opt out. After all, Flaherty seems all but certain to beat that $20MM guarantee if he opts out. It was just last offseason that Walker Buehler landed a guarantee in excess of $20MM on the heels of a 2024 season where he pitched to a 5.38 ERA across 16 starts coming off Tommy John surgery, while pitchers like Alex Cobb and Charlie Morton who offered very little certainty were able to secure $15MM salaries on one-year deals. If this year’s market ends up being anything like last season, Flaherty should have little trouble beating his option price tag in terms of total guarantee with a strong chance to beat that salary outright.

While the Tigers could extend him the Qualifying Offer in the event that he decides to opt out if they were so inclined, that would still be the case next year as well. What’s more, simply accepting the QO would actually constitute a small raise for Flaherty relative to his option salary, as it’s projected to land around $22MM this offseason. If Detroit opted not to extend the QO to him, on the other hand, he’d once again be an attractive, high-potential arm unencumbered by draft pick compensation. In a free agent market where virtually every starter comes with real question marks, it’s not hard to imagine a team overlooking Flaherty’s lackluster results this year to make a healthy multi-year offer, or at least offer him a more lucrative pillow contract than the one he’d be opting out of.

How do MLBTR readers think Flaherty should approach his option decision this November? Should he stick with the Tigers in hopes that he puts it all together in 2026 with a truly ace-caliber season, or should he test the open market and look for the safety of a larger immediate guarantee? Have your say in the poll below:

The Changing Landscape Of The Offseason Shortstop Market

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For much of the 2025 season, it's looked as though Bo Bichette will be the only notable shortstop in free agency -- and it's been plenty fair to debate whether he's a shortstop at all. The 27-year-old has bounced back -- and then some -- at the plate, largely quieting concerns about his anemic performance with the bat in an injury-ruined 2024 season that saw him slash just .225/.277/.322 with four homers in 81 games. But whatever good will Bichette has regained with a resurgent performance in the batter's box has at least partially been offset by a career-worst year with the glove -- and now yet another lower-half injury.

Elsewhere in free agency, what once looked like an otherwise-barren class has now begun to show some potential upside. Narratives surrounding several potential free agents have begun to shift -- enough that it bears taking a lengthier look at what the winter might bring.

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Poll: Can The Guardians Push Their Way Into The Postseason?

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A lot has changed in the AL Wild Card scene in the two weeks since MLBTR’s last poll about the race. At the time, there were three clubs within two games of catching the Mariners for the final Wild Card spot, and aside from an outside chance of Houston losing the AL West the rest of the playoff field looked more or less set.

Now, the Mariners have surged ahead of the pack to run down the Astros in the West, while the Red Sox have slumped badly to the point where their ticket getting punched is no longer a foregone conclusion. The Rays (nine games back of a Wild Card spot), Royals (seven games back) and even the Rangers (4.5 games back) are all extreme long shots, meaning that if anyone is going to shake up the AL playoff field, it will be a team that wasn’t even included in our poll from two weeks ago: the Cleveland Guardians.

Cleveland has won 11 of its last 12 games, and the 80-71 Guards now sit 2.5 games back of Boston for the final Wild Card spot. Starters Gavin Williams, Parker Messick, and Joey Cantillo have all been excellent since the All-Star break, while Kyle Manzardo and Jose Ramirez have carried the offense. The fabled bullpen that pushed Cleveland into the postseason last year has shown up again this season (even without Emmanuel Clase), and that unit has done a lot of the heavy lifting for the Guardians with the lowest FIP and second-lowest ERA in baseball since the start of August.

What makes the Guardians most interesting as a possible late entrant into the postseason picture, however, is that they actually control their own destiny in the AL Central as well. The division has looked more or less locked up for the Tigers all year long, but a 5-9 record so far in September alongside Cleveland’s surge has left them vulnerable with four games (including one today) left on the schedule between the two clubs.

With two avenues to a playoff spot on the table, the Guardians are arguably the most interesting team to watch over the final few days of the regular season. The playoff odds at FanGraphs are skeptical, giving Cleveland a 16.4% chance to make the postseason this year entering play today. That’s actually the best odds of any team not currently in playoff position, but it still highlights the tough road the Guardians will have to hoe if they’re going to play in October.

That said, Cleveland does have one thing in its favor: the schedule. The Guardians benefit from four games against the lowly Twins, who have been one of the worst teams in baseball since their massive sell-off at the trade deadline. Cleveland also has a remaining series against an injury-ravaged Rangers team to wrap up the 2025 campaign. Meanwhile, the Tigers and Red Sox actually face each other in the final series of the regular season. If the Guardians can just remain in spitting distance of both teams until then, they’ll have an opportunity to make up a game or two in the standings over that final weekend.

What do MLBTR readers think? Will the Guardians be able to pull it off and shake up the playoff field? Or will they be left on the outside looking in this October? Have your say in the poll below:

Sandy Alcantara Is Finding His Old Form

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The Marlins were expected to trade Sandy Alcantara at the deadline. The former Cy Young winner had returned from the Tommy John surgery that wiped out his 2024 season. The hope was that he'd immediately recapture his ace form, demonstrate that over his first 18-20 starts, and be the prize of the summer rotation market.

Alcantara's return didn't go anywhere near that smoothly. His velocity was back, but he struggled to throw strikes or miss bats. He allowed over eight earned runs per nine innings in April and May. He showed flashes in June and July but remained up-and-down. Miami's deadline calculus became whether to sell low on their longtime ace -- a move that would've been more about cutting his $17MM salaries through 2026 than netting a huge prospect return. Given the organizational history, no one would've been surprised if they'd gone that route.

They instead decided to hold Alcantara and were only modest sellers overall. Miami dealt third catcher Nick Fortes to Tampa Bay and flipped platoon outfielder Jesús Sánchez to Houston for a three-player package. In addition to Alcantara, Edward Cabrera, Kyle Stowers, Anthony Bender and Calvin Faucher all stayed.

Miami was willing to cover what remained of Alcantara's 2025 salary to take a couple more months to get him on track. That has paid off. The 30-year-old righty has looked more like his old self. He's showing better control than he did in April and May. The improved efficiency has allowed him to work deeper into games. His stuff has gotten sharper as the season has progressed. That'll all be very encouraging as the Marlins field new trade offers in the offseason.

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Poll: Luis Robert Jr.’s Option

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While they won’t be breaking the major league record for losses this year like they did in 2024, it’s been another tough year for the White Sox. They’ve lost 95 games and could lose 100 games for the third year in a row. Emerging young players like Kyle Teel and Colson Montgomery have made this season a little easier for fans on the south side of Chicago to stomach, but there’s still little reason to expect the team to contend in 2026.

One of the most important offseason decisions for the White Sox has been whether to exercise a $20MM option on center fielder Luis Robert Jr. or pay him a $2MM buyout, though it seems they’ve generally already made up their mind. As soon as the Sox opted not to trade him at the deadline, it seemed likely Robert would be back in 2026 as opposed to bought out for no return. General manager Chris Getz has suggested as much on multiple occasions, and just this morning he told reporters that he expects Robert to be a part of the club next season (link via Vinnie Duber of the Chicago Sun-Times). The question, then, is less about what they will do and whether or not they’re right to do it.

With Robert all but confirmed to be done for the 2025 campaign due to a hamstring strain, his numbers appear locked in. After slashing .224/.278/.379 (84 wRC+) with 14 homers in 100 games last year, Robert produced a nearly identical .223/.297/.364 line (82 wRC+) and slugged 14 homers in 110 games in 2025. Between that apparent lack of progress and Robert’s continued injury woes, it might seem difficult to understand why the White Sox would stick with him rather than simply viewing him as a sunk cost.

Despite his eerily similar (and disappointing) numbers, however, digging a little deeper into Robert’s 2025 numbers actually reveals reason for optimism. He stole ten more bases this year than last, going 33-for-41 as opposed to 2024’s 23-for-29. Robert’s defense is also showing signs of a rebound, as he jumped from a Fielding Run Value of 0 in 2024 to a +7 figure this year, good for top 10 among center fielders in baseball this year.

More encouraging than either of those changes are the differences in his approach at the plate. While Robert’s overall slash line doesn’t look terribly different, he cut his strikeout rate from 33.2% in ’24 to a more manageable 26% in ’25. His 9.8% walk rate isn’t just an improvement over last year’s 6.6% mark — it’s a new career-high. Robert also did his best work this summer, rebounding from a slow start to hit .274/.335/.458 with nine homers, a 19.7% strikeout rate and a 7.6% walk rate over his final 198 plate appearances. That was 17% better than average, per wRC+.

As shown by Statcast, Robert’s bat speed dropped in 2024, but he’s rebounded to elite levels in 2025, ranking in the 92nd percentile of big leaguers. That could suggest there’s still some untapped power upside, but even if his days of crushing baseballs on a 30 to 40 homer pace are behind him, the combination of improved discipline, baserunning, and defense leave him in a solid position to be a three-to-four win player in the future if he can just stay healthy — though that is a colossal “if.”

It’s arguable that it’s worth an $18MM roll of the dice, particularly considering the fact that Cody Bellinger signed with the Cubs on a one-year, $17.5MM contract during the 2022-23 offseason after back-to-back down seasons with the Dodgers. Like Robert, Bellinger was coming off injury-marred seasons where he didn’t look like himself at the plate but had shown some signs of improvement in his final year in Los Angeles. Bellinger, of course, rewarded the north siders for their gamble with an All-Star campaign in 2023 and has posted a 123 wRC+ with 10.9 fWAR over the past three seasons.

On the other hand, locking Robert in for another year comes with glaringly obvious risk. With the White Sox unlikely to contend in 2026, on-field production will only benefit the team if it can then be converted into trade capital. The White Sox have had a lot of difficulty getting what they perceive to be fair value for Robert over the years, and even if he has a big first half in 2026, teams might be scared away by his uncertain history.

Furthermore, Robert’s 110 games played in 2025 are actually the second-most of his entire career. He’s never played even 150 games in a season. One first-half injury could leave Robert with little trade value next year, and force the White Sox into another situation a lot like the one they find themselves in this year as they stare down another $20MM option for the 2027 campaign.

What do MLBTR readers think the White Sox should be doing about Robert? Should they pick up his option and bet on better days in the future, or would they be better off sending him on his way and using that $18MM in savings elsewhere? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Can The Diamondbacks Push Their Way Into The Playoffs?

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It wasn’t even two weeks ago when MLBTR did a poll regarding whether or not anything could shake up the seemingly-stagnant NL playoff picture. At the time, more than 64% of respondents believed that the sextet of clubs in postseason position (Brewers, Phillies, Dodgers, Cubs, Padres, and Mets) would be the ones to ultimately represent the senior circuit in October. The playoff odds over at FanGraphs were even more bullish on that group, as New York’s 95.2% chance to make the postseason was the lowest out of those six clubs.

A lot has changed since then regarding the perception of the NL’s playoff field. While five of the aforementioned six teams are still all but guaranteed to play in October, the Mets have entered a freefall. While a win on Sunday snapped their losing streak at eight games, they’re still 4-9 in September and 15-26 since the start of August (though they’re beating up on the Padres tonight). That extended slump has opened the door for the hangers-on in the NL playoff field to take advantage and, while the Reds and Giants have mostly spun their wheels with 75-75 records headed into the final two weeks of the season, one team has taken full advantage to force themselves back into the conversation: the Arizona Diamondbacks, who weren’t even a listed option for the postseason in that aforementioned early September poll.

With an 8-5 record in September and 25-17 since the start of August, Arizona’s been almost the inverse of the Mets over the past six weeks. Despite selling off everyone from Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor to Merrill Kelly and Shelby Miller at the deadline, they’ve fought their way back over .500 and now sit just 1.5 games back of a Wild Card spot with 11 games to go after last night’s win over the Giants. It’s very impressive for the team to have rebounded this well over the past few weeks, and a lot of things needed to go the right way for that to happen.

Since the start of August, Zac Gallen (2.68 ERA), Ryne Nelson (3.61 ERA), and Eduardo Rodriguez (3.63 ERA) have all looked like quality starters, while Nabil Crismatt has broken out to deliver 30 innings of 2.70 ERA ball in the rotation since making his season debut on August 17. The offense, meanwhile, has gotten sensational performances out of not just superstars like Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte, but also lower profile talents like Geraldo Perdomo (174 wRC+ in 192 plate appearances) and Gabriel Moreno (166 wRC+ in 74 plate appearances). Even rookie Blaze Alexander (124 wRC+ in 170 plate appearances) has done a great job letting fans in Arizona forget about the loss of Suarez.

As monumental as the team’s efforts to force their way into the postseason have been, they still face a very uphill climb even as they sit just a game and a half back. The schedule has done them absolutely no favors. After this series against the Giants, they’ll run a gauntlet of Phillies, Dodgers, and Padres to close out the season. Perhaps the series in Philadelphia won’t be as difficult as it might look on paper if the Phils ease off the gas after clinching the NL East last night, but L.A. and San Diego remain locked in a close battle for the NL West and surely won’t make it easy for their division rivals in the desert to finish this attempt at a comeback.

All of that leaves Arizona with just a 7.7% chance to make the postseason entering play today, according to FanGraphs. Those are long odds, and while they’ll surely improve at least somewhat if the Diamondbacks can put the Giants to bed in this ongoing series, even a sweep isn’t especially likely to move the needle unless the Mets help them out by doing a lot of losing in the coming days. Even then, the Giants and Reds both lurk just half a game behind the Snakes. A series loss to the Giants would likely spell the end of Arizona’s hopes then and there, and a schedule that affords Cincinnati five more games against the struggling Cardinals and Pirates should keep them competitive even if Arizona can dispatch San Francisco.

Unlikely as it may seem on paper, however, an eight-game September losing streak in Queens and the Diamondbacks winning at a .595 clip after trading off their best players didn’t seem terribly likely either. Could Arizona really finish the job and return to the postseason this year? Have your say in the poll below:

Here’s a backup link for poll in case the first one isn’t showing up

Dipoto: Mariners Interested In Re-Signing Josh Naylor

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The Mariners are riding a six-game win streak that has pulled them into a tie with Houston for the top spot in the AL West. Josh Naylor has eight hits, including a trio of home runs, over that stretch. He’s batting .260/.306/.460 with eight home runs in 41 games since being acquired from Arizona at the deadline. He’s also incredibly 16-16 in stolen base attempts, ranking third in MLB behind Juan Soto and Jazz Chisholm Jr. in steals since he was traded. Unsurprisingly, the Mariners would like to keep the impending free agent in the Pacific Northwest.

“Yeah I think we would (like to retain him),” M’s president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald on this week’s edition of the podcast. “That remains to be seen how Josh feels about the matter. It’s never easy when you’re in a playoff race to open discussions like that. I know that there is interest on our end, and I believe that there is interest on Josh’s end.”

Naylor hasn’t suffered from Seattle’s home park, which grades as MLB’s most difficult for hitters. He’s batting .338 with five home runs in 19 games at T-Mobile Park since the trade. That’s an extremely small sample, but Naylor also had success against Seattle pitching as a visiting player. He’s a career .283/.319/.535 hitter over 140 plate appearances at T-Mobile Park.

“He’s actually as good as anybody that’s played in the last handful of years at hitting in this ballpark. It doesn’t seem to bother him much. We’ll see if there’s an interest in sticking around as a Mariner,” Dipoto noted. Naylor echoed those sentiments when speaking with the M’s beat earlier this week (link via Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times).

“Every time I was an opponent, this is like the first place I couldn’t wait to come to,” the lefty hitter said. “I feel comfortable everywhere, to be honest, but I just really enjoyed playing here coming here as an opponent. I thought it was a super cool stadium. The fans were always electric. I think you see the ball well here, personally. I like the open roof. When the roof is closed, it’s cool. But I love the feeling of the roof open.”

The Mariners are going to look beyond 36 games of park-specific data when deciding how seriously to pursue a long-term deal with Naylor. His success there provides some comfort on both sides, though. The Mariners haven’t been big spenders on free agent hitters throughout Dipoto’s decade-long tenure atop baseball operations. As shown on MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Mitch Garver is the only free agent position player to sign for multiple guaranteed seasons in that time. Beyond Garver’s $24MM guarantee, last offseason’s one-year, $7.75MM agreement to bring back Jorge Polanco is their second largest deal for a free agent hitter.

Naylor is headed into his age-29 season. He won’t be attached to draft pick compensation because the midseason trade rendered him ineligible to receive a qualifying offer. He should easily surpass the Garver contract and has a chance to secure a four-year deal despite teams’ general reluctance to sign first basemen to long-term contracts. Naylor carries a .271/.333/.462 slash in more than 2000 plate appearances over the past four seasons. His plus contact skills give him a solid offensive floor and he’s a reasonable bet for 20+ home runs annually. His glove rates around league average, and while he’s one of the sport’s slowest players, this year’s stolen base proficiency demonstrates better baserunning instincts than one would expect based on his physique.

Dipoto spoke generally (not regarding Naylor individually) about the organization’s lack of free agent activity on the offensive side. “I don’t necessarily think it’s a personal plan and certainly not something we discuss here internally. … We just haven’t been able to attract the right player that we feel great about investing more than 2/24 in. We’ve tried and we’ve come up short on a number of occasions in trying to recruit those free agents,” he told MLBTR. “We’re also entering a stage in our development where we’re pretty confident in our system and the ability to start churning position players in a way that we were churning out starting pitchers a handful of years ago.”

Seattle’s farm system indeed has a forthcoming influx of young talent. The M’s already graduated rookie second baseman Cole Young, who showed flashes early before hitting a second half slump. They have five additional position players on Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 prospects. None of those players are first basemen, though, and the M’s dealt Tyler Locklear to the Diamondbacks in the separate deadline trade for Eugenio Suárez. Turning the position back over to Luke Raley, who has battled injuries amid a down year, isn’t ideal.

The M’s pushed their payroll to roughly $166MM with this summer’s additions, as calculated by RosterResource. They have around $77MM committed to next season. An arbitration class featuring Randy Arozarena, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Bryce Miller will cost roughly $35-40MM. Seattle also has a $6MM option on Andrés Muñoz which they’ll certainly exercise. Polanco will be able to return on a contract option that could reach $8MM, though he’s likely to decline that after one of the best offensive showings of his career.

Seattle isn’t likely to be huge players in free agency, but there appears to be room for an offseason built around re-signing Naylor and making a few supplementary additions. It’s also possible they shop Luis Castillo, who’ll make $22.75MM annually for two more seasons. Castillo, who was the subject of some trade chatter last winter, has generally been a reliable mid-rotation presence but has struggled in the second half.

Naylor’s impending free agency was one of myriad topics that MLBTR and Dipoto discussed this week. Seattle’s baseball ops president also spoke with Darragh about the volume of trades for which he’s gained the “Trader Jerry” nickname, reuniting with Suárez after trading him away two seasons ago, re-signing Polanco despite his injury-plagued first season with the club, and the increasing difficulty of trading prospects for major league talent with fewer teams embarking on five-plus year rebuilds than there were a few seasons ago.

The Reds Could Have Starting Pitching To Trade This Offseason

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Not long ago, the Reds found themselves in possession of what looked to be a borderline surplus of infielders. Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Jonathan India, Noelvi Marte, Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand all had varying levels big league experience even before Cincinnati signed Jeimer Candelario to a three-year contract. A wide range of opinions on how to best divide the playing time persisted, but the Reds had the makings of a formidable collection of young bats.

Fast forward a few years, and none of that has really panned out. As MLBTR's Anthony Franco explored last month, that group has turned over a fair bit. Marte now patrols the outfield more than the infield. India is in Kansas City, traded last winter in exchange for right-hander Brady Singer. Candelario was released halfway through what has turned out to be a significant misstep of a signing. Encarnacion-Strand has been beset by injury. Steer has bounced all around the diamond, including in the outfield, but he's settled in more at first base. De La Cruz is entrenched at shortstop. McLain, who's struggled in the wake of 2024 shoulder surgery, remains an ongoing question mark. Top prospect Sal Stewart was recently promoted to the majors for his first look, giving them yet another high-upside infield piece to consider.

Even with that prior glut of infielders, the Reds felt compelled to trade for Ke'Bryan Hayes at this year's deadline and infielder/outfielder Gavin Lux last offseason. The overall offense in Cincinnati has been tepid, at best. The Reds, despite playing in perhaps the most homer-friendly park in the sport, rank 23rd in MLB with 146 home runs. They're 13th in runs scored, 16th in batting average and on-base percentage, and 21st in slugging percentage. The offense is ... fine. It's not a glaring deficiency, but it's also not going to turn any heads.

On the other side of the game, however, the Reds have enjoyed a more significant boom. Cincinnati's pitching staff is virtually teeming with enticing young options. Even with Nick Martinez and deadline pickup Zack Littell slated to become free agents, the Reds are deep in rotation arms. The aforementioned Singer is the priciest of the bunch heading into 2026, as he'll be due a raise on his $8.75MM salary, presumably pushing him past $12MM. The rest of the group is generally affordable, if not making at or very near the league minimum.

It's a fine line to walk, of course, as any "surplus" in baseball can dry out in a hurry, but this version of the Reds seems well positioned to flip some of that pitching talent in exchange for some offensive firepower when the offseason rolls around.

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