Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

MLBTR Originals

The D-backs’ Late-Blooming Slugger

By | at

The D-backs moved on from Joc Pederson this past offseason, bidding farewell to a slugger who made 132 appearances at designated hitter for them in 2024 and turned in an outstanding .275/.393/.515 slash in 449 plate appearances. Pederson was limited to 42 plate appearances against left-handed pitching but was a mainstay in the lineup against right-handed opponents. He torched righties at a .281/.392/.531 clip -- 54% better than league average, by measure of wRC+.

Arizona spent more than anyone expected this past offseason, but the vast majority of that spending came in the form of their stunning six-year, $210MM signing of right-hander Corbin Burnes. That marked the largest contract in franchise history, helping push payroll to record levels. The rest of the front office's moves were understandably on the smaller side, at least in terms of financial commitment. A trade for Josh Naylor replaced Christian Walker at first base for about half the 2025 price (and one-sixth of the overall financial commitment). Re-signing Randal Grichuk cost another $5MM. Relievers Kendall Graveman and Jalen Beeks signed for under $2MM apiece.

Pederson's two-year, $37MM deal with the Rangers was announced on the same day as Burnes' deal with the Diamondbacks. Based on the totality of Arizona's offseason, it'd be fair to presume that signing both simply wasn't in the budget. Perhaps, however, the D-backs felt comfortable moving on from Pederson because they bought into the out-of-the-blue breakout from another lefty slugger on the roster.

Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription

BENEFITS
  • Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
  • Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
  • Remove ads and support our writers.
  • Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker

Looking Ahead To Club Options: AL Central

By | at

MLBTR continues our division by division look at next year’s team/mutual option class with the AL Central. Virtually all of the mutual options will be bought out by one side. Generally, if the team is willing to retain the player at the option price, the player will decline his end in search of a better free agent deal.

Previous installments: player options/opt-outs, NL West, AL West, NL Central

Chicago White Sox

Pérez signed a $5MM free agent deal to serve as the veteran presence in a very young White Sox rotation. Chicago hoped he’d pitch well enough in the first half to net a lottery ticket prospect at the deadline. Pérez was reasonably effective through his first three starts, but he came out of his fourth outing with forearm discomfort. A flexor strain diagnosis immediately sent him to the 60-day injured list. He’s expected to avoid surgery but will miss almost the entire season. A deadline trade is off the table, and he’ll be bought out at season’s end.

As recently as a few months ago, Robert’s $20MM club option looked like excellent value, as did the matching option for 2026. He was a down-ballot MVP performer in 2023, when he hit .264/.315/.542 with 38 homers while playing plus center field defense. The ’24 campaign was a struggle. Robert missed nearly two months early in the season with a hip flexor strain and was unproductive when healthy. He hit .224/.278/.379 with 14 homers in 100 games. Chicago held him into this year rather than sell low in an offseason trade.

That put a lot of pressure on Robert to hit early in the year. An excellent few months could make him one of the top position players available at the deadline. A terrible start might tank what remained of his trade value. The early returns are disastrous: .138/.255/.238 with 30 strikeouts in 96 plate appearances. There’s still time for a turnaround, but Robert may be following in the footsteps of Tim Anderson and Eloy Jiménez — players whose once team-friendly extensions soured to the point that they were traded for meager returns and/or bought out.

Cleveland Guardians

Means underwent UCL surgery last June. That was his second such procedure within the past three years. He’d undergone Tommy John surgery in 2022 and had only just returned before his elbow gave out again. The Guardians took a $1MM flier in free agency. The deal includes a $6MM team option for next season. Means is hoping to return to the mound in August or September. His late-season form will determine whether Cleveland wants to keep him around next year.

If the Guardians exercise the option, Means could unlock up to $2.5MM in performance bonuses. He’d earn $75K apiece at 20, 30, 40 and 50 innings pitched next year. That climbs to $100K each for 60, 70, 80 and 90 frames; $125K at 100, 110, 120 and 130 innings; and $150K apiece for 140 and 150 frames.

Sewald had a pair of above-average seasons as Seattle’s closer between 2022-23. His production started to trend down after a ’23 deadline deal that sent him to Arizona. Sewald remained generally productive through the Snakes’ surprising World Series run that year. Last season was his worst since his 2021 breakout. He allowed a 4.31 ERA with declining velocity through 39 2/3 innings. The Guardians surprisingly guaranteed him $7MM to deepen an already excellent bullpen. The veteran righty has punched out 13 hitters through 10 1/3 frames, but he has already surrendered three homers while averaging just 90.2 MPH on his fastball.

Detroit Tigers

Detroit added Brebbia on a $2.75MM contract early in Spring Training. It was a roll of the dice on the veteran righty’s intriguing swing-and-miss rates. Brebbia had allowed nearly six earned runs per nine innings last season (mostly with the White Sox), but he punched out nearly 28% of opposing hitters. Things have reversed early in his Detroit tenure. Brebbia has only allowed two runs (one earned) over his first nine innings. His 8.8% swinging strike rate is well below average, though, and he’s given out eight free passes — five walks and three hit batters.

Brebbia is working in low-leverage situations that suggest he’s towards the bottom of the bullpen depth chart. He’ll need to turn around his underlying numbers to pitch his way into more meaningful spots and, eventually, to convince the front office to exercise the option.

Brebbia could push the option price by another $4MM based on his performance this year. It’d climb by $500K at 65 appearances, $1MM apiece at 45 and 50 games finished, and by $2MM for 55 games finished. The maximum escalator value is capped at $4MM, so the appearance threshold would essentially be nullified if Brebbia finishes 55 games and pushes the option value to $8MM based on that criteria alone. He has finished six of eight appearances so far.

Urquidy’s situation is similar to that of Means. The former Astros righty required Tommy John surgery last June. Houston waived him at the end of the season. He reunited with A.J. Hinch in Detroit on a $1MM contract. Urquidy won’t be an option until the final few weeks of the season in a best case scenario. Detroit can gauge his progress to determine whether they want to retain him at a $4MM base value. Urquidy could tack on another $3MM if the Tigers exercise the option: $150K each at four and seven starts next year; $300K apiece for 10, 13, 16 and 19 starts; and $500K each at 22, 25 and 28 starts.

Kansas City Royals

  • Michael Lorenzen, RHP ($12MM mutual option, $1.5M buyout if team declines its end)

Kansas City brought Lorenzen back on a $7MM free agent deal. He’s playing on a $5.5MM salary and would collect a $1.5MM buyout on a $12MM mutual option assuming the Royals decline their end. He grabbed a season-opening rotation spot with both Alec Marsh and Kyle Wright on the shelf. Lorenzen has had a customary start to the season. He carried a 4.57 ERA with a below-average 17.7% strikeout rate into this evening’s appearance against the Rockies. He’s through five scoreless innings against Colorado at the time of this writing.

Perez is making $22MM in the final season of the four-year extension that he signed in March 2021. At the time, it was the largest contract in organizational history. (Bobby Witt Jr. has since shattered that record.) Perez is a franchise stalwart, of course, but it was still surprising to see the Royals guarantee him $82MM for his age 32-35 seasons — especially given the heavy workloads he’d taken throughout his career.

The nine-time All-Star has rewarded the team’s faith. He led the majors with 48 homers and 121 RBI in 2021, though he was already under contract for that season anyhow. He combined for a .261/.307/.447 slash over the first three seasons of the extension. Perez eclipsed 20 home runs in each, and he won the AL Silver Slugger Award behind the dish with a .271/.330/.456 showing during last year’s playoff season.

Perez has started this season more slowly. He entered today’s doubleheader with a .185/.235/.293 line, though he has picked up four doubles over two games against Colorado pitching. If this continues all season, the Royals could face a tough decision, but the safer bet right now is that Kansas City will exercise the option. It’s tough to imagine Perez playing anywhere else.

Minnesota Twins

Minnesota added Bader on a $6.25MM contract amidst a quiet offseason. They’ve preferred to have a capable right-handed hitting fourth outfielder who can reduce Byron Buxton’s workload in center field while complementing their lefty-hitting corner bats. Bader has started 18 of the team’s first 25 games. He’s hitting .230/.319/.393 with a trio of home runs through 69 plate appearances. It’s an early improvement over last year’s .236/.284/.373 showing, but it’s unlikely the Twins would exercise their end of a $10MM option.

The bigger factor might be Bader’s semi-regular playing time. He could push the buyout price as high as $3MM based on this season’s plate appearance total. It has a $1.5MM base value and would climb by $200K at 400, 425 and 450 plate appearances, then by $450K at 475 and 500.

Note: Justin Topa’s arbitration contract contains a $2MM club option or a $225K buyout for next season. He’d remain eligible for arbitration if the team declines the option, as he will not have reached six years of service time.

Poll: Can Willson Contreras Get Back On Track?

By | at

When the Cardinals announced over the offseason that they were moving Willson Contreras to first base, it came as something of a surprise given that they we just two years into a five-year deal they gave him to fill the shoes Yadier Molina had stood in for the past 19 years. Signing a bat-first catcher to replace one of the best defenders in baseball history behind the dish was a bold move, and while Contreras hit an excellent .263/.367/.468 (129 wRC+) in his first two seasons as a Cardinal, his tenure behind the plate did not come without controversy. St. Louis moved him off catcher briefly during his first season with the club after complaints about his glove. Last year, he missed time with a broken arm sustained when he was hit by a swing after the organization suggested he move closer to the plate to improve his defense.

If those controversies set the table for the decision to move Contreras away from catching, the departure of incumbent first baseman Paul Goldschmidt for the Bronx this winter and the club’s two up-and-coming catchers Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages making solid cases for more playing time made the possibility that much more realistic. After all, a position change for Contreras would allow the Cardinals to make some progress on their desired youth movement without needing to pull off a trade, and there was at least a possibility that Contreras’s strong bat from his first two seasons with the club could blossom even further if he didn’t need to split his focus between hitting and catching.

Unfortunately, that’s not how things have gone so far. In 24 games this season, Contreras has slashed just .200/.269/.305 this year. That leaves him with a 62 wRC+ that’s not only well below average but also extremely uncharacteristic of him. While questions about Contreras’s defensive abilities have dogged him since the early days of his MLB career with the Cubs, his bat has never been in doubt as he’s posted above-average numbers at the plate by wRC+ in every single year of his career until now. A .258/.353/.461 (121 wRC+) hitter for his career, Contreras had elevated his game to another level since the start of the 2022 season with a .256/.367/.467 (133 wRC+) line across the past three seasons.

Has all of that changed in his age-33 season? It certainly wouldn’t be the first time that a catcher in his early-to-mid 30s suffered a sudden and drastic decline, although moving to first base should at least theoretically help preserve Contreras’s health. The frustrating reality of the veteran’s situation is that, while below-average offense can be acceptable behind the plate, first base is a bat-first position where he’ll need offensive results in order to stick as a regular. That’s even more true with youngsters like Alec Burleson and Luken Baker ready to step in and take their own shots at the first base job if given the opportunity.

As lackluster as Contreras’s work at the dish has been so far this year, it’s not as if all hope is lost. The veteran’s .270 BABIP this year matches his career low, and if it bounces back to something closer to his .309 career level, that would go a long way to lifting his production. Another reason for optimism is that he’s still putting the barrel on the ball fairly often. While his 9.1% barrel rate and 40.9% hard-hit rate this year are the lowest figures he’s posted in either category since 2018, they both remain solid. When combined with his top-of-the-line bat speed, it’s easy to imagine Contreras being able to generate more power than he’s shown so far.

On the other hand, Contreras is already more than 100 plate appearances into his first season as a first baseman, and he’s currently matching his career-high in strikeout rate (28.6%) and pairing that with a career-low walk rate of 6.7%. Contreras has always been a bit of a streaky hitter, as exemplified by his 2018 season where he carried a 123 wRC+ into the All-Star break before hitting a paltry .193/.282/.280 across his final 50 games, so it stands to reason that he may well be just one hot streak away from getting back to being the bat he’s shown himself to be throughout his career. Even with that in mind, the signs of declining plate discipline and reduced power are concerning. That’s especially true when combined with his age and the years of wear and tear he accumulated behind the plate.

How do MLBTR readers think the rest of the 2025 season will go for Contreras? Will he be able to bounce back and post numbers similar to what he’s offered in each of the last three seasons? Or will his first year as a first baseman be the worst offensive season of his career? Have your say in the poll below:

Tyler Mahle Can Push The Rangers Over The Tax Line

By | at

The Rangers clearly want to avoid the competitive balance tax in 2025. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported as much way back in October and owner Ray Davis confirmed that plan to Grant in January.

There are likely a few reasons for the club taking this route. The Rangers were one of several clubs which had a broadcast deal with Main Street Sports, formerly known as the Diamond Sports Group. As that company was going through bankruptcy, several clubs saw their contracts fall apart. Some of those organizations renegotiated new deals with the company but with lower fees. Other wound up with the league running their broadcasts.

The Rangers took a different approach and decided to launch their own regional sports network (RSN). Several big market clubs own RSNs, either in whole or in part, and many of them are doing well financially. The Rangers may have taken a smart route in the long run but it also might take some time to get it set up from scratch.

With that uncertain financial situation, the club decided it would be a good time to reset its CBT status after paying the tax in 2023 and 2024. Teams face increasing tax rates for paying the CBT in consecutive years. A team that avoids the tax in one year can then go into the following year as a “first-time” payor. Most teams like to limbo under the line from time to time, just to go back to square one.

But the Rangers still wanted to compete. They signed multiple players this offseason, including Nathan Eovaldi, Joc Pederson, Kyle Higashioka, Patrick Corbin, Kevin Pillar and a whole bunch of relievers. In the end, they came close to the line without going over it, at least according to publicly available metrics. RosterResource currently pegs them at $236.4MM, less than $5MM from the $241MM base threshold. Cot’s Baseball Contracts has them even closer at $237.8MM. Those are just estimates but they are probably close to accurate, given that the club wanted to be a bit under.

However, a club’s CBT number isn’t calculated until the end of the season, with any in-season developments being factored in. That includes contract bonuses/incentives for guys already on the club. Any players added midseason, such as in deadline trades, would also count.

That will be a situation worth watching in the coming months as the Rangers are currently atop the American League West with a 14-10 record. Assuming they stay in the race into the month of July, they should be deadline buyers. But if they want to stay under the tax, they may need their moves to be revenue neutral, or they might even need to move some money off their books.

Creeping just barely over the line wouldn’t lead to a massive tax bill. The club would be a third-time payor and subject to a 50% base tax rate. A hypothetical overage of $1MM would only lead to $500K in taxes, which is nothing for a baseball club. But it would mean the club would also face a 50% base tax rate in 2026, whereas ducking under the line this year and becoming a “first-time” payor means a 20% base tax rate next year. Avoiding the tax also changes the penalties and compensation for qualifying offer situations, providing another incentive to a team to stay under the line if they are near it.

In short, the CBT number is a living, breathing thing which will be moving throughout the year and it should have a real impact on the club’s deadline approach. There are many players with bonuses in their contract, but Tyler Mahle is the most notable with $5MM. Assuming the calculations of the club’s current CBT number are correct, that means he can single-handedly push them over the line.

Mahle was coming off May 2023 Tommy John surgery when the Rangers signed him to a back-loaded deal heading into 2024. It was a two-year, $22MM guarantee, with the Rangers knowing they likely wouldn’t get much in 2024. As such, they only paid him $5.5MM in the first year, followed by $16.5MM in 2025 with $5MM also available in incentives.

As expected, the Rangers didn’t get much from Mahle last year. He came off the injured list in August and made just three starts before some shoulder tightness put him back on the IL again. He stayed there for the remainder of the campaign.

Now in 2025, the Rangers seem to be getting what they hoped for. Mahle has been healthy and also in excellent form. He has a 0.68 earned run average though his first five starts. There’s a bit of luck in there from a .156 batting average on balls in play and 90.9% strand rate but he’s been a big part of their early-season success regardless.

The only downside for the Rangers is that Mahle’s bonuses are very achievable. MLBTR has learned that he gets an extra $500K for getting to 100 innings, $1MM each at 110, 120 and 130 innings, then $1.5MM at 140 innings.

He’s not a lock to earn the full $5MM, as he only has one season in his career where he got to 140 innings. He was still getting optioned to the minors at times in 2018 and 2019 and then fully established himself during the shortened 2020 season, before logging 180 frames in 2021. Shoulder troubles capped him at 120 2/3 in 2022, and then the aforementioned Tommy John surgery limited him in the following two seasons. Still, with the Rangers so close to the line, it could be a notable development even if he gets into triple digits and nudges them closer a million or two.

If he stays healthy, he would unlock the full $5MM easily. The Rangers might be tempted to back off his workload, as they did with Andrew Heaney in 2023. Heaney had a $13MM player option for 2024, which would bump up to $20MM if he hit 150 innings in 2023. The Rangers moved him to the bullpen to prevent that from happening, with Heaney finishing the year at 147 1/3 innings.

Doing the same with Mahle might be tricky if he continues pitching well. The Rangers have Cody Bradford, Jon Gray and Jack Leiter on the injured list. Kumar Rocker has a 6.38 ERA through four starts this year. Corbin is holding his own right now but hasn’t had an ERA under 5.00 in a full season since 2019. Jacob deGrom and Eovaldi are out to good starts but each is in his mid-30s with a notable injury track record. In short, this team might need Mahle more than the 2023 Rangers needed Heaney.

There are other players who could also factor in to lesser degrees. Luke Jackson is the second most notable after Mahle, as he is earning a $1.5MM base salary but could earn as much as $4MM via incentives, an extra $2.5MM. He can unlock $75K for pitching in 20 games, $100K at 25, $125 at 30, $150K at 35, $175K at 40, $225K at 45, $250K at 50, $300 at 55 and $350K at 60. That’s potentially an extra $1.75MM just for appearances. There’s another $750K for games finished: $50K for 25, $100K for 30, $150K for 35, $200K for 40 and $250K for 45. He has taken over the club’s closer role in the early going and already has nine games finished and ten appearances overall.

Corbin has batches of bonuses based both on innings pitched and relief appearances, so he should get paid some extra money as long as he’s healthy, regardless of which role the Rangers have him in. He gets $100K at 40 and 55 innings, $150K at 70 and 85, $200K at 100 and 115, $250K at 130, 145 and 160, then $350K at 170. He also gets $100K for 35 relief appearances, $150K for 40, $200K for 45, $250K for 50, $300K for 55. He’s in the rotation for now and those relief appearance bonuses are unlikely to be a factor, but he could certainly earn more money based on innings pitched. Getting to 170 innings pitched and unlocking all the bonuses would be an extra $2MM.

Chris Martin can earn an extra $150K by getting to 45 innings pitched this year and again at 50 frames, followed by $200K at 55 innings. Hoby Milner can get an extra $100K at 35 and then 45 innings, then an extra $150K at 55 and 65. Jacob Webb is making $1.25MM this year but can get that to $1.5MM via incentives worth $250K. MLBTR has learned that Webb gets $50K at 20, 30, 40, 50 and 60 innings pitched. Josh Sborz can unlock an extra $25K at five innings, $50K at 10, $75K at 15, $100K at 20. He underwent shoulder surgery in November and is expected to miss at least the first half of the season.

deGrom and Eovaldi have the same awards bonuses. They can earn an extra $250K for winning the Cy Young this year, as well as $200K, $150K, $100K or $50K for finishing second, third, fourth or fifth in the voting. They can also get $150K for winning World Series MVP, as well as $100K for getting an All-Star selection, a Gold Glove award, or LCS MVP. Pederson can get an extra $150K for winning MVP, $100K for an All-Star selection or World Series MVP, plus $50K for for a Silver Slugger or LCS MVP.

All of those bonuses could nudge the Rangers closer to the line or even over it, which will make for an interesting balancing act this summer. As mentioned, they will almost certainly be looking for upgrades as the deadline rolls around but they might also have to move some money around if they continue to plan on avoiding the tax.

Pederson is out to an awful start, so maybe they try to flip him somewhere else, though they would surely have to attach prospect talent in order to convince another club to absorb his contract. He is earning $13MM this year and will be owed $18.5MM next year. He can opt out after 2025 with the club able to override that by picking up a two-year option at $18.5MM annually for 2026 and 2027. If he continues struggling, he will obviously not take that opt-out.

Gray is making $13MM this year, the final season of his contract. He has been on the injured list all season due to a wrist fracture and it’s unclear when he’ll be back. It’s possible the Rangers won’t need him in the rotation once he’s healthy, depending on how others are performing. His deal has an AAV of $14MM, so trading him just ahead of the deadline could shave almost $5MM off the club’s CBT number. However, doing so would subtract from the club’s rotation depth. His trade value will also depend on how he heals up and performs in the coming months.

There are a great many factors at play here, but taking them all into consideration, it feels as though the Rangers are going to be right near the edge. If they abandon their desire to avoid the tax, that could simplify a lot. But if not, they will have to be watching all these numbers in the coming months.

Photos courtesy of Jerome Miron and Kevin Jairaj, Imagn Images

The Giants Should Consider A Rotation Change

By | at

The Giants had a rotation battle throughout Spring Training. Logan Webb, Robbie Ray and Justin Verlander were locked into the top three spots. President of baseball operations Buster Posey said in December that the team remained committed to Jordan Hicks as a starter. The final job would go to one of three younger arms: Kyle Harrison, Hayden Birdsong or Landen Roupp.

Harrison seemed like the frontrunner entering camp. If that had been the case, he quickly pitched his way out of it. The lefty allowed eight runs in 6 2/3 spring innings. The Giants optioned him before Opening Day. (He's since made four starts at Triple-A Sacramento, allowing nine earned runs despite recording 21 strikeouts over 15 innings.) It came down to Birdsong and Roupp, with the latter getting the nod. Birdsong broke camp as a long reliever.

The decision came as a surprise. Birdsong started 16 all of his major league appearances last year. He turned in a 4.75 ERA over 72 innings as a rookie. He'd been lights out during Spring Training, firing 12 innings of one-run ball with 18 strikeouts and no walks. Roupp had a good but less impressive camp, giving up five runs with 14 strikeouts and one walk across 12 frames. He also had more experience working out of the bullpen, as he'd started just four of 23 appearances during his debut season last year.

San Francisco probably feels good about their decision to give Roupp a rotation job. The 26-year-old righty carries a 4.09 earned run average with an excellent 31.2% strikeout rate through the first four turns. He has recorded a pair of quality starts and reached seven innings for the first time in his MLB career on Saturday, when he held the Angels to two runs while striking out nine.

While Roupp has earned continued starting looks, the rest of the rotation beyond Webb has struggled. The Giants have raced to a 15-9 record despite their rotation having the seventh-worst ERA in MLB, entering play Wednesday. They should already consider making a change.

Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription

BENEFITS
  • Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
  • Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
  • Remove ads and support our writers.
  • Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker

Poll: Should Spencer Torkelson’s Breakout Be Believed?

By | at

Not long ago, Spencer Torkelson seemed to be out of time. The Tigers first baseman was selected first overall in the 2020 draft to plenty of fanfare, and he instantly became a consensus top-5 talent in the minor leagues. A disappointing rookie season in 2022 tempered those massive expectations, but a strong second half in 2023 caused many around the league to think the following year would be Torkelson’s season to shine. That didn’t happen either, as the slugger was once again a below-average hitter overall and wound up optioned to the minors for much of the year. When the Tigers signed Gleyber Torres to push Colt Keith over to first base, it seemed like a bad omen for 25-year-old’s future in Detroit.

Spring Training changed all of that, as the club’s entire outfield mix save Riley Greene wound up on the injured list. That opened up enough roster spots for Torkelson to have a real shot at the Opening Day roster, and he made the most of the opportunity by hitting .340/.389/.680 in 55 plate appearances during camp. Spring stats only count for so much due to the less competitive environment, however, and Torkelson would need to show out in actual major league games if he was going to turn his career around. So far, he’s done just that. Torkelson has not only been the Tigers’ best hitter this year, but he’s been one of the top hitters in the majors.

Across 24 games this year, the slugger has slashed an excellent .273/.377/.591 with a wRC+ of 176. It’s enough to have made him the 12th-best qualified hitter in the major leagues to this point in the year. It’s early enough in the season that the leaderboard still looks fairly unusual; just ahead of Torkelson with a 177 wRC+ is veteran outfielder George Springer, who it goes without saying is unlikely to maintain a .444 BABIP all season long. While there’s plenty of reasons to be skeptical of small-sample performances, many of them don’t apply to the 106 plate appearances Torkelson has taken to this point in the year.

Torkelson’s BABIP is .309, which is the highest of his career but well within the range of expected outcomes for a hitter and not substantially higher than the .285 BABIP he posted last season. The fact that Torkelson is hitting the ball on a line (17.7% line drive rate) more often than last year (15.1%) surely helps his outcomes on balls in play, as well. His 26.4% strikeout rate is also a tick lower than last year’s 27.6%, but none of these are the most encouraging signs regarding Torkelson’s start to the 2025 campaign. The most exciting news here is that he’s not only resumed crushing the ball at the level he was during the 2023 season, but that he’s paired it with newfound patience at the plate.

The 25-year-old is swinging less than ever, at just 44.3% of his pitches. Torkelson’s swing rates both inside and outside of the strike zone are lower than ever, and that newfound patience has allowed him to not only draw walks at a phenomenal 13.2% clip but also make more contact when he does swing. His 10.2% swinging strike rate this year is the lowest of his career, and he’s making contact on 52.2% of pitches he swings at outside of the zone after putting the bat on just 40.6% of those same pitches last year.

That more judicious approach at the plate has allowed Torkelson to rediscover his titanic power after posting a paltry .155 ISO last year. He has seven homers and seven doubles already this year, and that power is backed up by his underlying numbers: he’s managed a phenomenal 17.7% barrel rate that would be by far the highest of his career if maintained over the full season and is nearly triple last year’s 6.1% clip, and 50.0% of his balls have been considered hard hit, good for a 95mph exit velocity or higher.

All of this is extremely impressive, and if Torkelson can keep anything close to this going for the full year, he’ll have finally tapped into the potential scouts saw in him half a decade ago as an amateur. Over his final 300 plate appearances in 2023, Torkelson hit .238/.320/.506 with a wRC+ of 125. His 26.7% strikeout rate was more or less identical over that stretch to this year’s figure. His 16.6% barrel rate and 52.2% hard-hit rate weren’t far off, either. Those numbers are all close enough to serve as a reminder that Torkelson’s first 100 plate appearances this year don’t guarantee his future production will be close to as impactful, although his 2025 numbers do have a few key advantages over his second-half numbers in 2023.

For one thing, Torkelson’s line drive rate is three points higher while his soft contact rate is nine points lower this season. Those figures could help to explain the huge difference in BABIP, which sat at just .262 during his final 300 trips to the plate in 2023. His discipline is also noticeably improved, as he walked 10.0% of the time during that stretch, nearly four points lower than this year. If Torkelson’s improved plate discipline holds up and he continues to make soft contact this sparingly, it’s not hard to imagine him being able to keep up this level of production over the long haul.

What do MLBTR readers think of Torkelson’s hot start? Is this finally the year he puts it all together and looks like the dominant offensive force he was always expected to be, or will this prove to be another flash in the pan like his late 2023 production? Have your say in the poll below:

Looking Ahead To Club Options: NL Central

By | at

MLBTR continues our division by division look at next year’s team/mutual option class with the NL Central. Virtually all of the mutual options will be bought out by one side. Generally, if the team is willing to retain the player at the option price, the player will decline his end in search of a better free agent deal.

Previous installments: player options/opt-outs, NL West, AL West

Chicago Cubs

  • Shota Imanaga, LHP (team has three-year, $57MM option covering 2026-28; if they decline, Imanaga has $15MM player option for 2026)

Imanaga signed a somewhat complex four-year, $53MM deal when he made the jump from NPB during the 2023-24 offseason. Next winter, the Cubs need to decide whether to trigger a three-year, $57MM option for the 2026-28 seasons. That’d come with respective salaries of $20MM, $20MM and $17MM. If the Cubs decline their end, Imanaga would be able to decline a $15MM player option for ’26 and test free agency.

It’d almost certainly take an injury for that to happen. Concerns about how Imanaga’s stuff might translate against MLB competition proved unfounded. The southpaw finished fifth in NL Cy Young balloting during his first major league season. He turned in a 2.91 earned run average across 173 1/3 innings, striking out a quarter of opponents against a 4% walk rate. The punchouts haven’t been there through this year’s first five starts, but he takes a 2.22 ERA into tonight’s appearance against the Dodgers. He’s getting whiffs on an excellent 14% of his pitches, so he’ll likely finish off a few more strikeouts moving forward. Imanaga’s deal looks like a bargain, and the Cubs should happily sign up for another three seasons at a $19MM average annual value unless he suffers an injury.

  • Colin Rea, RHP ($6MM club option, $750K buyout)

Rea reunited with Craig Counsell in Chicago after the Brewers declined his $5.5MM club option. It actually worked out slightly to his financial benefit. The righty collected a $1MM buyout from Milwaukee and secured a $5MM guarantee with the Cubs. He’s playing this year on a $4.25MM salary and will make at least a $750K buyout on next year’s club option. That’s valued at $6MM, so it’ll be a $5.25MM decision.

The Cubs had Rea work in long relief to begin the season. He has stepped into the rotation since the Justin Steele injury. The 34-year-old righty is out to a strong start, allowing two runs through his first 13 2/3 innings. He has punched out 12 while only allowing one walk in 56 plate appearances. Rea had held a rotation role in Milwaukee for most of last year, posting a 4.29 ERA through a career-high 167 2/3 innings. As a mid-30s swingman with league average whiff rates, he’s never going to break the bank, but the option price is reasonable for a capable #5/6 starter.

Turner’s option is mostly an accounting measure designed to push back $2MM of his $6MM free agent guarantee by a few months. Option buyouts are paid at year’s end, while the money would have been evenly distributed throughout the season had it simply been a $6MM salary. It’s unlikely that the Cubs would want to sign up for a $10MM salary covering Turner’s age-41 campaign even if he repeats his solid 2024 production.

The 17-year big league veteran has posted 11 consecutive above-average offensive seasons since his 2014 breakout with the Dodgers. His power numbers have declined with age, but he put up a strong .354 on-base percentage in 139 games between the Blue Jays and Mariners a year ago. Turner’s start on the North Side hasn’t been good. He’s hitting .147 without an extra-base hit over 14 games. He’s taken six walks against nine strikeouts but will obviously need to make more of a slugging impact.

Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati took a buy-low flier on Barlow, a former closer who was released by the Guardians shortly before the playoffs. The righty had fallen quickly down the depth chart in Cleveland. He carried a 3.52 ERA with a 32% strikeout rate into the All-Star Break. Barlow allowed a near-6.00 ERA while striking out just 19% of batters faced in the second half. A fastball that typically sat around 93 MPH had dropped to the 90-91 range.

The early tenure in Cincinnati has been mixed. Barlow has gotten his velocity back, averaging 93 on both his four-seam and sinker. He’s getting whiffs on a huge 15.3% of his offerings, nearly two percentage points above last year’s level. The stuff is certainly more encouraging, but the results haven’t followed. He has a pedestrian 9:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing five runs on eight hits through 9 1/3 innings. He was limited to a $2.5MM guarantee last offseason. He’ll need a more convincing rebound for Cincinnati to retain him on what amounts to a $5.5MM call.

Hays signed for $5MM after being non-tendered by the Phillies. The righty-hitting outfielder has been a capable regular for most of his career, but his production dipped last season while he battled a grueling kidney infection. A Spring Training calf injury delayed his team debut until last week. Hays has been on tear since his return, connecting on three homers while hitting .406 in 34 plate appearances. He has a hit in all seven games, including three straight multi-hit performances against his old teammates in Baltimore over the weekend.

Suter, who grew up in Cincinnati, joined the Reds on a $3MM deal during the 2023-24 offseason. He posted a 3.15 ERA through 65 2/3 innings and signed a $2.25MM extension at the start of last winter. The 35-year-old southpaw is out to a customary start. He has managed 9 2/3 frames of three-run ball despite striking out just four of 38 opponents. Suter’s stuff is never going to jump off the page — he’s sitting in his typical 85-88 MPH range with his fastballs — but he avoids hard contact and is aiming for his seventh straight sub-4.00 ERA showing. Assuming he continues on his usual pace, the Reds should want him back on a $2.75MM decision.

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee made a big investment by their standards in signing Hoskins to a two-year, $34MM contract during the 2023-24 offseason. The longtime Phillies first baseman had missed his walk year after suffering an ACL tear during Spring Training. The Brewers expected Hoskins to recapture his consistently above-average offensive form after a healthy offseason.

That didn’t happen in year one, as he hit a career-worst .214/.303/.419 across 517 plate appearances. Hoskins still managed 26 homers, but the overall offense was essentially league average. It wasn’t attributable to lingering knee discomfort. Hoskins did his best work early in the season, carrying an .813 OPS through the end of May. He hit .203/.285/.395 over the season’s final four months and bypassed an opt-out opportunity.

Hoskins has gotten out to another strong start this year. He’s batting .270 with a trio of homers and what would be a career-low 20% strikeout rate over his first 75 trips to the plate.

Milwaukee signed Peralta to a $20MM extension just before Spring Training 2020. He was mostly unproven at the time, but it only took one more season before he developed into a top-of-the-rotation starter. This quickly became one of the more team-friendly contracts in baseball. The deal included respective $8MM club options for 2025 and ’26, which would have been Peralta’s first two free agent years had he gone through arbitration.

The 28-year-old righty has been the clear staff ace since Milwaukee traded Corbin Burnes. He posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the five guaranteed seasons of the contract. Peralta has rattled off another 28 1/3 frames of 1.91 ERA ball through his first five starts this year. Unless he suffers a significant injury that’d threaten his availability for next season, the Brewers are going to rubber-stamp the option.

Quintana signed late on a $4.25MM pillow contract after finding a weaker market than he expected. The net present value was actually just under $4MM, as Quintana agreed to defer the $2MM buyout on his ’26 mutual option. The Brewers aren’t going to exercise their end of the $15MM option for what would be the veteran lefty’s age-37 season. It looks like they got great value on the one-year deal, though, as Quintana is coming off a 3.75 ERA showing for the Mets. The late signing delayed his team debut, but he has fired 12 1/3 innings of one-run ball over his first two starts.

Woodruff underwent shoulder surgery late in the 2023 season. The Brewers re-signed him to a backloaded two-year deal with a $17.5MM guarantee. They knew he’d spend all of ’24 rehabbing. They’ve taken his progression carefully and didn’t push him during Spring Training. Woodruff began a minor league rehab stint on April 12. He has made a pair of rehab starts and could be back with the big league team in the next couple weeks.

Note: William Contreras’ arbitration contract contains a $12MM team option for next season. He’s excluded from this list because he’d remain under arbitration control if Milwaukee declines the option, as they did with Devin Williams last offseason.

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • None

St. Louis Cardinals

  • None

Poll: Can The Twins Still Bounce Back?

By | at

The 2024 season ended in heartbreaking fashion for Twins fans. Despite Minnesota looking all but locked into a playoff spot at the start of September, a brutal 9-18 record combined with a shocking 17-8 surge for the Tigers was enough to leave Twins players on their couches back home come October. While a fourth-place finish in the AL Central was tough to swallow, the team’s core of talent was largely set to remain in place for 2025, providing some reason for optimism that a team that was held back from the playoffs by one terrible and injury-filled month could turn things around and contend again.

Unfortunately, that hasn’t come to pass. The Twins made were largely inactive for the majority of the offseason, with only minor additions to the roster like the signings of Ty France, Danny Coulombe, and Harrison Bader. In a division where rival clubs made notable additions or reunions (e.g. Gleyber Torres, Jonathan India, Jack Flaherty, Michael Wacha) it was fair to wonder if Minnesota had done enough to keep up. So far, it seems they did not. The Twins are 7-15. That’s the third-lowest win percentage in all of baseball ahead of only the lowly White Sox and Rockies.

A rotation that’s thrown the third-fewest innings in the majors this year with a subpar 4.30 ERA is one factor, but the biggest culprit is a lineup that’s hit just .211/.282/.338 with a wRC+ of 82. That’s 18 points worse than league average and leaves Minnesota with the fifth-worst offense in the league. Byron Buxton and Matt Wallner have been bright spots, but the latter is now on the injured list. Meanwhile, players like Edouard Julien, Ryan Jeffers, and Trevor Larnach have failed to perform. Shortstop Carlos Correa has followed last year’s outstanding .310/.388/.517 performance with a .194/.256/.319 slash line in 78 plate appearances. Royce Lewis has yet to play a game, owing to a hamstring strain.

Dire as things may look, the Twins aren’t even 15% of the way through their season; perhaps it’s too soon to make any grand pronouncements about a club with what looks to be a solid core on paper. After all, the aforementioned Tigers of last season suffered an 8-18 stretch from June 5 to July 4 that featured an even lower winning percentage than Minnesota’s current record, and they went on to fight their way back into contention even after trading away four veterans — including the previously mentioned Flaherty — at the deadline.

That’s not the full story, of course. While the 162-game schedule is a marathon, a major checkpoint is approaching much more quickly: trade season. The trade deadline is 100 days from today. The Twins would have to play at a 91-win pace from now on to even make it back to .500 in time for the All-Star break. It’s anyone’s guess if the club would consider parting ways with major pieces under team control like Pablo Lopez or Jhoan Duran, but even shipping out rental pieces like France, Coulombe, Willi Castro and Harrison Bader would surely stifle the club’s attempts to contend.

The most important x-factor for the Twins, as is the case most years, will be player health. Lopez is expected back from the injured list later this week to help out the rotation, while the lineup figures to receive reinforcements when Wallner and Lewis are activated next month. If those key players make it back healthy and effective within the next few weeks, that could spark a turnaround. By the same token, a setback for any of those players or a long-term injury for another key player could wind up being a nail in the coffin for a team that has given itself very little margin for error with such a dismal start.

What do MLBTR readers think the future holds for the Twins? Will the club be able to get healthy and bring playoff baseball back to Minnesota, or are the Twins staring down a second consecutive disappointing finish? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Will Alec Bohm Turn Things Around?

By | at

The Phillies have enjoyed a solid enough start to their season to this point. Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Nick Castellanos are all off to hot starts, the starting pitching has largely looked as strong as ever despite the absence of Ranger Suarez, and the late-inning dominance of both Jose Alvarado and Matt Strahm has made the losses of Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez look manageable. Despite those positives, however, Philadelphia has fallen behind the Mets in the early going. Much of that is due to New York sporting the best pitching staff in baseball to this point in the year. While in theory the Phillies’ superior offensive numbers should help to balance that out, hot starts by most of the lineup’s key players have been negated in part by the deep struggles faced by outfielder Brandon Marsh and third baseman Alec Bohm.

Marsh was placed on the 10-day injured yesterday after going without a hit through the first two and a half weeks of April, but there’s no evidence of a physical explanation for Bohm’s struggles. The 28-year-old has slashed just .193/.211/.261 with a wRC+ of 30 that indicates he’s been 70% worse than league average at the plate so far this year. Those numbers have come in 90 plate appearances. It’s not a sample size at which most offensive stats have stabilized, but a month of production is still a significant chunk of the season. Adding fuel to the concerns surrounding Bohm is the fact that the infielder fell off a bit in the second half last year after strong early-season production. He slashed just .251/.299/.382 in 204 plate appearances after the All-Star break last year. Putting those two stretches together, Bohm is left with a set of nearly 300 plate appearances where he’s posted a lackluster 71 wRC+.

That sort of performance would not be acceptable for an everyday third baseman on a playoff contender. That’s especially true of Bohm given that he’s neither a top-notch defender nor a meaningful contributor on the bases. While some defensive metrics liked Bohm’s work at third base last year as demonstrated by his +5 Outs Above Average, there’s plenty of reason to view that figure as a bit of an outlier. Bohm’s been one of the worst defenders in baseball this year with -3 OAA already, and he’s been below average in every season of his career outside of 2024. Meanwhile, he’s never stolen more than five bases in a season or produced positive baserunning value in a full campaign according to Fangraphs’ BsR metric.

With so much emphasis on Bohm’s bat, the silver lining here is that there’s some encouraging signs in his underlying production this year. Specifically, Bohm’s batted ball metrics look quite good despite the complete absence of results. His 51.4% hard-hit rate is nearly seven points higher than his career average and six points above last year’s mark. He’s also sporting an 8.3% barrel rate that’s well above his career norms and in line with what power hitters like Josh Naylor and Randy Arozarena offered last year. The only noticeable flaw in Bohm’s batted ball data is that he’s hitting it on the ground too often; his 50% groundball rate would be his highest since 2021, leaving him with a career-worst 20.8% line drive rate and a flyball rate down nearly four points from last year.

In addition to Bohm’s struggles with elevating the ball to this point in the year, he’s suffered from a steep decline in plate discipline. Bohm struck out in just 14.8% of his plate appearances in each of the last two years, so this season that figure jumping to 17.8% is at least somewhat notable. More concerning than that, however is his shockingly low 1.1% walk rate. Bohm has draw just one walk to this point in the season; not only is that by far the fewest of any hitter with as many plate appearances as Bohm this year, just 15 other hitters in the whole sport with even half of Bohm’s 90 trips to the plate haven’t drawn at least two walks yet. A look under the hood suggests that Bohm is swinging at fewer strikes (65.7%) than ever before in his career while swinging outside the zone more often (27.5%) than he did last year.

Those numbers are both still relatively close to his career norms, so perhaps Bohm’s walk rate can get back to something closer to normal over a larger sample size. If he can do that and start elevating the ball a bit more often, it’s easy enough to see him rebounding to be a solid contributor this year. It remains an open question, however, as to whether or not he’ll get that opportunity. After all, Edmundo Sosa has plenty of experience at third base and has gotten off to a scorching start this year with a .414/.438/.552 slash line. That’s come in a sample of just 32 plate appearances and is heavily inflated by a massive .571 BABIP, but if the Phillies fall further behind the Mets in the standings while Bohm continues to struggle, making a switch is hardly unthinkable. There’s also the trade deadline over the horizon, where the Phils might have options to upgrade on Bohm, with Nolan Arenado rumors likely to ramp up again between now and then.

How do MLBTR readers think things will play out with Bohm? Will he still be the starting third baseman in Philadelphia at the end of the year? And will he have bounced back to put up numbers more in line with his career 101 wRC+? Have your say in the polls below:

The Rays’ Emerging Core

By | at

I was just 15-20 minutes into writing this when the Rays placed Richie Palacios back on the injured list and selected the contract of prospect Chandler Simpson, widely regarded as the fastest player in the sport. Simpson swiped 104 bags in 110 minor league games last year. He was caught only 13 times. He's 8-for-11 in steals to begin the current season. He's struck out in fewer than 10% of his professional plate appearances. Simpson has virtually no power, but he's an oddity in today's game and a throwback to the leadoff hitters of yesteryear. If he can carry those wheels and that preternatural contact ability over to the majors, he's going to garner a lot of national attention, simply because he's a departure from the MLB archetype in an era of baseball that's increasingly focused on power, elevating the ball, exit velocity, etc.

Maybe Simpson will be a star for the Rays. Maybe he'll follow the Billy Hamilton career path. We can't know yet. He hasn't played a single big league game. But even without the promotion of a notable prospect, the Rays' future was already starting to look quite bright.

We're early in the 2025 season, of course, so lots of things can be chalked up to small sample sizes. And the Rays do have plenty of early small-sample success stories. It hasn't yet translated into winning ball, evidenced by their 8-11 record, but Tampa Bay has a +11 run differential and has spent a good portion (in some cases all) of the season playing without some key stars. Shane McClanahan is wrapping up his rehab from Tommy John surgery. Josh Lowe has been out almost all year with a strained oblique. Ha-Seong Kim was signed knowing that he'd be out into at least May following shoulder surgery. The version of the Rays that president of baseball operations Erik Neander and manager Kevin Cash trot out in June and July should be expected to look quite a bit different than the April version.

There are still some intriguing names on the roster right now, however, many of whom are flying too far under the radar. It's easy to get too caught up in early-season data, as it tends to balance out over a larger sample. But with many of the Rays' young and/or returning contributors, the breakout campaigns they're teasing date back to the second half of the 2024 season. Tampa Bay operated as a seller last summer, trading away veterans Zach Eflin, Jason Adam, Isaac Paredes, Randy Arozarena, Aaron Civale and Phil Maton, among others.

That opened the door for a wave of younger players to begin receiving more playing time, and if you trace things back to that point, some of these eye-opening March/April stats start to look a little more legitimate. It's still only about 40% of a season -- less than that in some cases -- but as is always the case with a Rays team that ebbs and flows through periods of contending and rebuilding on the fly, there are some very intriguing components of a core taking shape.

Let's run through a few particular standouts.

Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription

BENEFITS
  • Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
  • Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
  • Remove ads and support our writers.
  • Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

hide arrows scroll to top