Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

MLBTR Polls

Poll: Who Will Win The ALCS?

By | at

Yesterday, the Guardians punched their ticket to the ALCS with an emphatic 7-3 win over the Tigers that included a Lane Thomas Grand Slam off of likely AL Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal, allowing Cleveland to take the fifth and and final game of the series.

As the NLCS (the result of which you can vote on here) kicks off between the Dodgers and Mets today, the Guardians will be traveling to New York for Game 1 against the Yankees, which is scheduled for tomorrow night. The Yankees spent the early part of the weekend waiting to see who their opponent would be after dispatching the Royals in four games. The early finish to the series gave the club three days off to realign their rotation and rest their bullpen for the upcoming seven-game set, a welcome breather given the fact that the Orioles hung around the AL East race deep into September.

No one should be surprised the Yankees have made it this far. After all, just two years after Aaron Judge’s herculean 62-homer effort delivered the club to the postseason despite virtually no support from the rest of the lineup throughout the second half of the season in 2022, Judge delivered arguably an even more impressive season in 2024 that should earn him his second AL MVP trophy. Perhaps even more important than Judge’s dominant season, however, is the fact that this year he had help in the form of Juan Soto. The Yankees were aggressive in pursuing Soto when the Padres made him available last winter, and ultimately gave up a five-player package headlined by right-handers Michael King and Drew Thorpe to acquire another star who could complement Judge in the lineup. Soto delivered on that promise and then some, slashing a sensational .288/.419/.569 in 157 games amid the best season of the 25-year-old’s career.

While the Yankees were widely expected to make some noise this season after adding Soto, the Guardians entered the 2024 season as little more than an afterthought. The club went just 76-89 last year and made few major changes over the offseason besides hiring Stephen Vogt to take over in the dugout after longtime manager Terry Francona elected to depart the club amid health issues, and an early-season injury to Shane Bieber in his final year under club control appeared to many to be the final nail in the club’s coffin this year.

That’s not how things turned out, however, as the Guardians managed to ride strong production from Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan in the lineup in conjunction with an otherworldly effort from the club’s bullpen to 92 wins, enough to dominate a resurgent and highly competitive AL Central division. While the entire Cleveland bullpen was extremely impressive, with a collective 2.57 ERA that was more than half a run better than the league’s second-best relief corps, closer Emmanuel Clase put together one of the most impressive seasons by a reliever in MLB history. Among all relief seasons with at least 50 innings of work since the start of the modern era in 1901, Clase’s ERA- of 15 ranks second to only Zack Britton’s dominant 2016 season. Even looking beyond Clase, however, the Cleveland bullpen has been something to behold this year as Eli Morgan, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin, and youngster Cade Smith each joined Clase in posting sub-2.00 ERAs, though none were quite as dominant as their closer’s 0.61 figure.

The Guardians, without any notable players on the verge of returning from injury or suffering from known day-to-day issues that could take them out of discussion for the roster, aren’t facing much uncertainty regarding their roster as they prepare to submit their final roster decisions tomorrow. The same cannot be said for the Yankees, who plan to wait until Monday to finalize decisions not only on how many pitchers the club will carry into the ALCS but also on the status of first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who suffered two broken fingers in the final days of the regular season and was unavailable during the ALDS.

In the rotation, it seems fair to say the Yankees have a substantial advantage. While neither side has announced a probable starter for Game 1, the club has penciled veteran ace Gerrit Cole in to start Game 2 and with breakout rookie Luis Gil expected to take the ball later in the series, it seems likely that either lefty Carlos Rodon or righty Clarke Schmidt will be on the bump for New York in Game 1, with Marcus Stroman also available as a potential depth option for the rotation if necessary.

The Guardians, meanwhile, relied on the trio of Tanner Bibee, Matthew Boyd, and Alex Cobb to get them through the ALDS. Cobb will be the only one on full rest in time for Game 1, making him the club’s most likely option to start the game, but it’s worth noting that both he and Boyd combined for just 11 starts during the regular season and managed just 9 2/3 innings across their three starts during the ALDS. Dominant as the Guardians’ bullpen has been this postseason, it remains to be seen if the club can rely on their relievers to throw nearly 60% of the team’s innings in a seven-game series as they did during their five-game set against the Tigers.

How will the ALCS play out? Which team is headed to the World Series, and how competitive will this series be?

What Will Be The Results Of The ALCS?
Yankees In 6 32.40% (2,434 votes)
Guardians In 6 21.42% (1,609 votes)
Yankees In 5 20.86% (1,567 votes)
Guardians In 7 12.29% (923 votes)
Yankees In 7 4.66% (350 votes)
Guardians In 5 3.53% (265 votes)
Yankees In 4 3.08% (231 votes)
Guardians In 4 1.77% (133 votes)
Total Votes: 7,512

Poll: Who Will Win The NLCS?

By | at

The Dodgers punched their ticket to the NLCS last night. Solo home runs from Enrique Hernández and Teoscar Hernández were enough to push L.A. to a 2-0 victory over the Padres in the rubber match of their Division Series. The Dodgers blanked San Diego in consecutive games to take the series in five.

They’ll welcome the Mets to Dodger Stadium tomorrow. New York has waited for its destination since finishing off the Phillies in four games on Wednesday. Almost no one would’ve seen this coming when the Mets bottomed out at 11 games under .500. The nadir of their season coincidentally came at the hands of the Dodgers, who swept New York at Citi Field to drop them to 22-33 in late May. The Mets caught fire after that, playing above .500 ball in each of the final four months of the season.

L.A. and New York closed the regular season as the hottest teams in the National League. Their 20-10 record over their final 30 games tied them with the Tigers for best in MLB. The Dodgers secured home field advantage throughout the playoffs by finishing with an MLB-leading 98 wins. New York clawed back to 89 wins and clinched a Wild Card spot on the last day of the regular season. They’ve had a flair for the dramatic in October, coming from behind in four of their five playoff wins.

Both teams have already come back from the edge of elimination. The Mets needed Pete Alonso’s ninth-inning heroics against Devin Williams to escape the Wild Card series in Milwaukee. The Dodger pitching staff silenced San Diego’s bats in consecutive elimination games in the Division Series.

New York has the slight benefit of two extra days of rest. They’ve had three off days since their last game, while the Dodgers get one rest day before starting the series. Each team’s entire bullpen should be in play for Game 1. The Mets will have their rotation outside of Jose Quintana on regular or extended rest at the beginning of the series. The Dodgers turned to Yoshinobu Yamamoto for five scoreless innings last night. They used a bullpen game on Wednesday.

Neither team has revealed a probable starter for Game 1, but the Dodgers are almost certain to turn the ball to Jack Flaherty before going with Walker Buehler in Monday’s Game 2. The Mets could turn in a few different directions. They have Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and Kodai Senga all ready to go. Andy Martino of SNY tweeted yesterday that Senga was likely to get the ball in Game 1, though the Mets won’t finalize that decision until today. The righty is on tight workloads after losing the second half of the season to a calf injury. He’ll probably be limited to two or three innings before turning the ball over to the bullpen. Senga threw two innings and 31 pitches in Game 1 of the NLDS, his first appearance since late July.

The teams have until tomorrow morning to finalize their rosters for the series. The Mets could have an important change. Jeff McNeil has been on the injured list for over a month with a right wrist fracture. Manager Carlos Mendoza said a couple days ago that McNeil had a good chance to be activated. The left-handed hitter started what’ll hopefully be a two-game stint in the Arizona Fall League last night to readjust to game speed.

McNeil made it through the first game with no issues, he told reporters last night (link via Jesse Borek and Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). While the Mets probably won’t make the decision until tomorrow, it seems McNeil will be active. That’d probably push Luisangel Acuña off the roster unless the Mets decide to drop to 12 pitchers despite the longer series.

On the Dodgers’ side, the main injury to monitor concerns reliever Alex Vesia. (There’s also the ongoing question about Freddie Freeman’s ankle but no doubt that Freeman will be on the roster.) Vesia entered with two outs in the seventh inning last night. The left-hander fanned Jackson Merrill to end the inning. He came back out for the eighth but reported soreness in his right side while warming up. The Dodgers lifted him for Michael Kopech, who combined with Blake Treinen to close out the game.

Manager Dave Roberts said postgame that Vesia would go for an MRI today (X link via Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic). The team is hopeful that the discomfort was just a cramp but wants to rule out an oblique injury. If Vesia did tweak his oblique, that’d probably shut him down for the season. Anthony Banda was the only other left-hander in Roberts’ bullpen for the Division Series. Justin Wrobleski and Zach Logue are the other healthy southpaws on the 40-man roster. Nick Ramirez remains in the organization but was outrighted last month and seems unlikely to be considered for a playoff spot.

How will the NLCS play out? Which team is headed to the World Series, and how competitive will this series be?

What Will Be The Result Of The NLCS?
Mets in 6. 30.27% (2,923 votes)
Dodgers in 6. 29.98% (2,895 votes)
Dodgers in 5. 11.87% (1,146 votes)
Mets in 7. 11.20% (1,081 votes)
Mets in 5. 6.97% (673 votes)
Dodgers in 7. 5.50% (531 votes)
Dodgers in 4. 2.42% (234 votes)
Mets in 4. 1.78% (172 votes)
Total Votes: 9,655

 

Poll: Who Will Win The AL Division Series?

By | at

Last night, MLBTR readers weighed in on the National League Division Series. With both series knotted up 1-1 at the time, readers heavily favored the Padres to upset the Dodgers while giving a slight edge to the Phillies to take down the Mets. The lower seeds each prevailed at home tonight to put the NL’s top two teams on the brink of elimination.

Tuesday was a travel day in the American League. Those series are also squared at a game apiece, providing an opportunity to check in on those sets. The Guardians destroyed the Tigers in Game 1, but Kerry Carpenter hit a game-winning homer in the ninth off Emmanuel Clase to give the Tigers a 3-0 win in the second game. The Royals rebounded after dropping a back-and-forth contest against the Yankees in Game 1. Kansas City rode a four-run fourth inning to a relatively easy 4-2 victory in Game 2.

Cleveland and Detroit will kick off play on Wednesday afternoon. The Guardians are turning to Alex Cobb in what will be just his fourth appearance in a Cleveland uniform. Cleveland landed Cobb from the Giants at the deadline to address a rotation that was the team’s biggest weakness. Cobb had spent the first few months of the season on the IL rehabbing last fall’s hip surgery. Blisters and a cracked fingernail on his throwing hand limited him to a trio of regular season appearances. Cobb pitched well in that brief action, allowing five earned runs with 10 strikeouts and three walks over 16 1/3 innings. This will be his first game in almost six weeks.

The Tigers haven’t announced a starter to oppose Cobb. Detroit has mostly ridden bullpen games behind ace Tarik Skubal and second starter Reese Olson. They’ll probably have Olson lined up for Game 4 with Skubal on tap if the series gets a decider. Tomorrow is likely to be an all hands on deck affair. Cleveland could go back to respective Games 1 and 2 starters Tanner Bibee and Matthew Boyd after tomorrow.

There’s a more conventional pitching matchup in Kansas City. The hosts will turn to Seth Lugo, who turned in an even 3.00 earned run average across 206 2/3 innings during his first season with the Royals. The potential Cy Young finalist tossed 4 1/3 innings of one-run ball with six strikeouts against Baltimore in the clincher of last week’s Wild Card series — the first postseason start of Lugo’s career. New York counters with Clarke Schmidt, who’ll be starting a playoff game for the first time himself. The former first-round pick had a 2.85 ERA over 16 starts in the regular season. He lost three months midseason to a lat strain but was excellent when healthy.

New York and Kansas City already list Gerrit Cole and Michael Wacha as the respective probable starters for Game 4. Neither team has announced its pitcher for a potential Game 5. That’d likely be a rematch of Monday’s pitching matchup between K.C. ace Cole Ragans and Yankees southpaw Carlos Rodón with both pitchers on regular rest by Saturday.

Which teams will vie for the ALCS next week?

What Will Be The Result Of CLE/DET?
Tigers in 5. 35.72% (1,924 votes)
Guardians in 5. 31.19% (1,680 votes)
Tigers in 4. 19.48% (1,049 votes)
Guardians in 4. 13.61% (733 votes)
Total Votes: 5,386

 

What Will Be The Result Of NYY/KC?
Royals in 5. 31.14% (1,564 votes)
Yankees in 5. 29.19% (1,466 votes)
Yankees in 4. 21.74% (1,092 votes)
Royals in 4. 17.94% (901 votes)
Total Votes: 5,023

 

Poll: Who Will Win The NL Division Series?

By | at

Monday is a travel day for the National League. Both series are knotted up 1-1 as they head to the homes of the lower seeds. Nick Castellanos’ walk-off hit capped off a back-and-forth affair in Philadelphia yesterday, squaring things with the Mets. The Padres had a much more convincing (but still drama-filled) beatdown of the Dodgers to tie that series.

The latter has a couple health situations to monitor. Freddie Freeman and Xander Bogaerts each departed yesterday’s game. Bogaerts’ absence was on accounting of hamstring cramping and came after the Padres had taken a six-run lead. That seemed precautionary at the time, and skipper Mike Shildt said today that the team’s belief is that it was simply a result of dehydration (X link via Annie Heilbrunn of the San Diego Union-Tribune). Freeman has had a bigger problem, playing through a sprained right ankle. L.A. manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic) this evening that Freeman was receiving treatment; his status for tomorrow’s game remains uncertain.

San Diego looks to have the distinctive edge from a pitching perspective for Game 3. They’ll turn to righty Michael King, owner of a 2.95 ERA in the regular season. Los Angeles counters with the scuffling Walker Buehler, who allowed more than five earned runs per nine this year after returning from his second career Tommy John surgery.

Neither team has named a starter for Game 4. Shildt kept open the possibility of turning back to Game 1 starter Dylan Cease on short rest on Wednesday (X link via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com). They’d presumably only do that if they lose tomorrow and are facing elimination in Game 4. Roberts has already shot down the possibility of bringing his Game 1 starter, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, back on short rest. That very likely leaves L.A. to turn to rookie Landon Knack in the fourth game.

There’s more clarity on the pitching plans in the NL’s other series. The pair of NL East rivals have already named starters for both games that’ll take place in Queens. It’s a matchup between Aaron Nola and Sean Manaea tomorrow. They’ve both had good seasons, though Manaea was a bit better than Nola was down the stretch.

It’ll be a pair of southpaws on Wednesday. Philadelphia turns to Ranger Suárez, while the Mets counter with José Quintana. Quintana followed up a brilliant September with six scoreless innings to help keep the Mets alive in the rubber match of their Wild Card series in Milwaukee. Suárez has yet to pitch this postseason. He’s generally as good as any fourth starter in MLB. Suárez looked as if he’d even be in the Cy Young conversation early in the year, but he was hit hard in September after losing a month to a back injury. He finished the season with a 3.46 ERA through 150 2/3 innings.

Philadelphia will have Zack Wheeler in reserve if the series goes to a decider. New York is expected to counter in a potential Game 5 with Kodai Senga, who managed two innings on 31 pitches in his return from the 60-day injured list last week.

Which two teams will punch their ticket to the NLCS later this week?

What Will Be The Result Of LAD/SD?
Padres in 5. 39.05% (3,485 votes)
Padres in 4. 32.72% (2,920 votes)
Dodgers in 5. 23.80% (2,124 votes)
Dodgers in 4. 4.44% (396 votes)
Total Votes: 8,925

 

What Will Be The Result Of PHI/NYM?
Phillies in 5. 40.99% (3,239 votes)
Mets in 5. 27.08% (2,140 votes)
Mets in 4. 19.75% (1,561 votes)
Phillies in 4. 12.17% (962 votes)
Total Votes: 7,902

 

How Will The Cardinals Handle Their Rotation Options?

By | at

The coming offseason figures to be a tumultuous one for the Cardinals. Coming off a second consecutive season where the club missed the playoffs, St. Louis brass have already announced that significant changes are coming, headlined by Chaim Bloom stepping in to take over baseball operations following the 2025 season (with a larger role in the meantime) and the club planning to slash payroll as they figure to bring back few if any of their departing veteran players.

While Paul Goldschmidt headlines the list of players who appear likely to don another uniform in 2025, what’s not yet clear is what the club intends to do about its starting rotation. Rumors have swirled that the club could shop staff ace Sonny Gray this winter as they look to trim payroll and focus on developing young players, and if Gray were to be moved that would leave only struggling veteran Miles Mikolas, oft-injured swingman Steven Matz, breakout youngster Andre Pallante, and deadline acquisition Erick Fedde as rotation options on guaranteed contracts for 2025. With some interesting young arms such as Michael McGreevey, Sem Robberse, and Adam Kloffenstein in the wings as potential contributors next year, it’s not hard to imagine St. Louis getting solid enough production from its internal options.

With that being said, however, their current rotation picture offers very little certainty, especially should Gray wind up pitching elsewhere next year. After all, even Pallante and Fedde lack track records of success in a big league rotation that go beyond the current season. Fortunately, the Cards have not one but two options available to them that could help raise the floor on their 2025 rotation at a relatively cheap price: Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn. The veteran hurlers will play at ages 37 and 38 respectively next year, but both posted solid results as back-end rotation options for the club this year and come with identical $12MM club options (with $1MM buyouts) for 2025. Given the club’s focus on the future and desire to trim payroll, it would be something of a surprise if both options were exercised. Given the many similarities between the two veteran Midwest natives, it’s fair to wonder which of the two hurlers would be a better choice for the Cardinals to retain next year, and which one they should send into free agency.

Of the two, retaining Lynn would surely offer a higher ceiling. The veteran hurler pitched the first six seasons of his career in St. Louis as a perfectly capable mid-rotation arm, but had a late-career breakout with the Rangers and White Sox that saw him pitch like a true top-of-the-rotation ace: from 2019 to 2021, Lynn posted a strong 3.26 ERA that was 46% better than league average with a 3.39 FIP and a 27.5% strikeout rate. He also enjoyed slightly better results than Gibson did this year, with advantages in ERA (3.84 vs 4.24), FIP (4.31 vs 4.42), and strikeout rate (21.3% vs 20.9%). For a club that’s likely to rely primarily on internal improvements in order to maintain hopes of contending for a playoff spot in 2025, there’s an argument to be made that Lynn’s ceiling and stronger results this season make him the smarter choice to retain going forward.

That’s not to say there isn’t a case to be made for Gibson, however. While the 12-year MLB veteran has never flashed the ceiling Lynn did during his peak, Gibson is more dependable in some ways. The groundballer rarely misses time due to injury, having made at least 29 starts in nine of his ten full seasons in the majors. By contrast, Lynn was limited to just 21 starts in 2022 and 23 starts this year by knee issues. What’s more, even as Lynn posted stronger overall numbers with the Cardinals this year, certain underlying metrics actually painted a much less clear picture: Gibson’s 4.44 SIERA is nearly identical to Lynn’s 4.40 figure, while Gibson actually wins on both xERA (4.90 vs 4.93) and xFIP (4.19 vs 4.39) thanks in part to a much stronger grounder rate (44.8% vs 36.3%).

While Gibson’s ceiling may not be as high as Lynn’s his reliability could be particularly valuable for a club that figures to rely heavily on young arms who may not yet be ready for a full season’s workload next year, and his comparable expected metrics call into question just how much of an advantage Lynn really has in terms of run prevention. Of course, it’s also worth noting that the club could choose a third option and decline both club options in hopes of finding similar production at a lower cost in free agency. It would be a risky choice to make given the rising costs of pitching in recent years, but a back-end arm like Martin Perez, Jose Urena, or Michael Lorenzen could theoretically be had at a lower price than either veteran’s club option depending on how this winter’s market shakes out. Of course, any player available at that price point would surely have flaws of their own.

How should the Cardinals handle their upcoming club options in the rotation? Have your say in the poll below:

Which Option Should The Cardinals Pick Up This Winter?
Decline Both Options In Hopes Of A Better Deal In Free Agency 51.42% (1,824 votes)
Pick Up Kyle Gibson's Option 36.37% (1,290 votes)
Pick Up Lance Lynn's Option 12.21% (433 votes)
Total Votes: 3,547

Cody Bellinger Remains Undecided On Opt-Out

By | at

Cody Bellinger has one of the more significant opt-out decisions of the offseason. The Cubs center fielder/first baseman needs to decide whether to bypass the remaining two years and $50MM on the three-year, $80MM contract he signed late last winter. If he foregoes this year’s opt-out, he’d have another out clause during the 2025-26 offseason (when there’ll be $20MM left on the deal).

Last weekend, Bob Nightengale of USA Today wrote that Bellinger was “fully expected” to bypass this winter’s opt-out. That doesn’t seem to be set in stone, however. Patrick Mooney of the Athletic reported this evening that Bellinger has yet to decide whether he’ll test the market.

Bellinger is wrapping up a solid if slightly disappointing year. He’s hitting .268/.328/.432 with 18 home runs over 545 plate appearances. He has essentially maintained the career-best pure contact ability that he showed in 2023. Bellinger has fanned in 15.8% of his trips this year, marginally higher than the 15.6% strikeout rate he managed during his first season on the North Side.

The downturn has been in his power output. Bellinger had eight more home runs and 13 additional extra-base hits a year ago. He has another week to add to this season’s totals but isn’t going to make up that much ground. His slugging percentage is down more than .090 points from last year’s excellent .525 mark. The sustainability of last year’s power production was always the biggest question. Bellinger got to his impressive 2023 output despite a below-average 31.4% hard contact rate and 87.9 MPH average exit velocity. This year’s batted ball metrics are similarly middling and the results have indeed regressed.

There’s nevertheless still a lot to like in the profile. Bellinger has proven to be an above-average contact hitter. He’s another season removed from the dismal 2021-22 run that led the Dodgers to non-tender him before his final arbitration year. It’s safe to say that his 47-homer MVP form isn’t coming back, but Bellinger is a productive hitter. He’s still capable of playing center field, although the Cubs have used him increasingly in right field and at first base.

Bellinger has graded as an average defender in a little more than 400 center field innings. He has posted similar marks in more than 350 innings in right. The Cubs’ best outfield has defensive wunderkind Pete Crow-Armstrong in center. Another team could give Bellinger more consistent reps up the middle for at least a season or two.

The two-time All-Star remains one of the younger possible free agents in the class. Bellinger turned 29 in July. He’s more than a year younger than Harrison Bader, who’d probably be the top center fielder if Bellinger stays in Chicago. He’s nearly a year younger than Anthony Santander and about the same age as Tyler O’Neill. While there’s a decent amount of corner outfield talent — headlined, of course, by Juan Soto — the center field class is not strong. Bellinger declined a qualifying offer last winter and is no longer eligible to receive one, so there’d be no draft pick forfeiture this time around.

That’d work in Bellinger’s favor if he opted out. Between his age and decent all-around production, he’d have a decent argument for a four- or even five-year deal. If he simply wanted to maximize the guarantee, he shouldn’t have an issue beating the $50MM remaining on his current contract. That’d require taking a paycut next season though. Bellinger wouldn’t match next year’s $27.5MM salary on an annual basis over four or five years.

If Bellinger and his camp at the Boras Corporation expect his power to rebound, bypassing the opt-out would be the likely decision. He’d have another chance to retest the market in advance of his age-30 campaign in 12 months. Staying in Chicago may require playing right field for a full season in deference to Crow-Armstrong, though, potentially raising questions among other teams about his long-term viability in center field.

From the Cubs’ perspective, an opt-out would probably be the better outcome. That’d enable them to play Seiya Suzuki more frequently in right field instead of limiting him to designated hitter — where he’d need to play with Bellinger and Ian Happ flanking Crow-Armstrong. Michael Busch’s strong year lessens the need to have Bellinger around as a fallback at first base. The Cubs have questions at catcher, in the bullpen and at the back of the rotation.

How does the MLBTR readership expect things to play out?

Will Cody Bellinger Opt Out This Offseason?
No. 60.70% (1,934 votes)
Yes. 39.30% (1,252 votes)
Total Votes: 3,186

 

Poll: Paul Goldschmidt And The Qualifying Offer

By | at

Heading into the 2024 season, the main question surrounding Paul Goldschmidt was one of whether the Cardinals would be able to get an extension done. Interest in a new contract for Goldschmidt was reported as far back as December, but president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said in January that extension talks could be tabled until early in the season. At the time, Goldschmidt was fresh off a .268/.363/.447 batting line in 154 games. That didn’t come close to his 2022 NL MVP season (.317/.404/.578, 35 homers) — but it was still well north of the league average and made Goldschmidt one of the more productive first basemen in the game.

Fast forward a few months, and the narrative has changed dramatically. Goldschmidt got out to the worst start of his career and seemed wholly unable to recover. He posted below-average offensive numbers in April, May and June, slashing a .225/.294/.361 in 349 plate appearances over that stretch. By measure of wRC+, the perennially excellent Goldschmidt had been 15% worse than an average hitter at the plate.

Even if one looked at the dip from his 2022 production to his 2023 output as the potential beginning of a decline, a drop-off of this magnitude was nonetheless a genuine surprise. Goldschmidt hadn’t simply had some poor luck on balls in play; his strikeout rate spiked to a career-worst 28.7%. His 8.3% walk rate was nowhere near his career mark. Goldschmidt was still hitting the ball hard, but his contact was less frequent and much of that hard contact was coming in the form of hard grounders rather than well-struck liners and flies. Goldschmidt’s 43% ground-ball rate in the season’s first three months was his highest since 2017.

Since that point, things have begun to turn around. Goldschmidt had a modestly productive showing in July (107 wRC+) and has seen his bat truly take off from August onward. He’s hitting .275/.315/.483 since the calendar flipped to July — including a .286/.338/.493 slash since Aug. 1. Again, this isn’t a simple change in fortune on balls in play. Goldschmidt’s 28% strikeout rate from the season’s first three months is down to 23.5% since July 1 — and just 21% since Aug. 1.

Despite that substantial dip in strikeouts, Goldschmidt hasn’t necessarily become more selective at the plate. He’s still not walking nearly as often as he used to — 5.5% since July 1 — nor is he chasing off the plate any less than he did in the season’s first three months. What he has done, however, is become much more aggressive on pitches within the strike zone. Goldschmidt’s typically patient approach led him to swing at just 61.4% of pitches in the strike zone from Opening Day through the end of June. Since then, he’s offered at 68.1% of such pitches. His overall swing rate through three months was at 46.2%, but he’s up to 49.4% in the three months since.

Goldschmidt has had 50 plate appearances end on one pitch this season. He’s hitting .347 and slugging .694 on those pitches. Of those 50, 26 came in the season’s first three months. About 7.4% of his plate appearances lasted one pitch. Since July 1, nearly 10% of his plate appearances have been of the one-pitch variety. It’s not a huge difference, but it lends credence to the fact that Goldschmidt has been more aggressive and been better off for it.

It’s been a tale of two seasons for Goldschmidt (pardon the cliche). His first half looked like that of a player on the decline — mounting strikeouts, lesser contact, and an across-the-board deterioration in his results. The past two-plus months, however, tell another story. Goldschmidt may not be the MVP-level hitter he was just two seasons ago, but he’s been clearly above-average since July, including an outrageous .394/.429/.636 slash in his past 70 plate appearances. His walks are down and may not recover if he maintains his more aggressive approach, but he’s hitting for average and power alike. If Goldschmidt had flipped his two halves, starting this hot and then fading toward league-average, his down season likely wouldn’t have garnered much attention.

As it stands, league-average is precisely where Goldschmidt is at. His .246/.303/.414 batting line comes out to an even 100 wRC+. His OPS+ (98) is only 2% worse than average. An average-hitting first baseman isn’t generally a QO candidate, but if the Cardinals believe Goldschmidt can sustain his late surge, then there’s good reason to make an offer. Even if he accepts, a $21.2MM salary for a player whom they believe can continue in the vicinity of a .275/.315/.483 pace would be defensible. And if he walks, the Cards would of course be entitled to draft compensation. On the flip side, if Goldschmidt were to accept and revert to his first-half form, it’d be a clear misstep that sets the franchise back in 2025 as they look to return to contending.

It all comes down to how much the Cardinals believe in Goldschmidt’s second-half renaissance and how much they’re willing to risk in the name of bolstering their 2025 draft pool. Six months ago, Goldschmidt would’ve seemed like a no-brainer QO recipient. Three months ago, the decision would’ve seemed like a no-brainer — for the opposite reason. Now, the Cardinals will fall somewhere in the middle. Let’s open this up for a poll:

Should the Cardinals give Paul Goldschmidt a qualifying offer?
No 60.65% (4,439 votes)
Yes 39.35% (2,880 votes)
Total Votes: 7,319

The Orioles’ Oft-Overlooked Outfielder

By | at

The Orioles are as deep as any team in baseball when it comes to young position players. As the trade deadline approaches, that’s led to interminable speculation on top prospects like Heston Kjerstad, Connor Norby, Coby Mayo and Samuel Basallo — highly touted prospects who’ve yet to solidify themselves as one of Baltimore’s long-term pillars. But for all the understandable focus on that slate of top-100 talents, the O’s have more to offer. Perhaps chief among the team’s controllable change-of-scenery candidates is outfielder Kyle Stowers. Manager Brandon Hyde alluded to the possibility in chatting with the Baltimore beat this weekend (link via Jacob Calvin Meyer of the Baltimore Sun).

“Kyle’s going to get a chance to be an everyday Major League player here at some point, either with us or with somebody else. Who knows?” Hyde said when discussing the 26-year-old outfielder and the positive impression he’s made on his manager this season. “You never know what this game is gonna bring, but he’s putting himself in great position.”

Stowers has indeed put himself in a position to be either quite useful to the Orioles or another club before long. There’s plenty of smoke and mirrors at play with his current .306 batting average and .500 slugging percentage, as those gaudy numbers have come in a sample of just 37 plate appearances and are propped up by an unsustainable .435 average on balls in play. Meanwhile, Stowers has fanned 13 times (35.1%) without taking a walk. In parts of three MLB seasons (2022-24), he’s taken 168 plate appearances and batted .229/.274/.369. He’s fanned at a 32.1% clip and walked in 4.8% of those plate appearances.

It’s not a particularly appealing batting line on the whole, but it’s come across five separate stints (dating back to his Aug. 2022 MLB debut) and with no consistent playing time. When Stowers, a 2019 second-round pick, has received steady playing time at the Triple-A level, he’s generally been a productive hitter. The lefty-swinging slugger carries a career .252/.350/.518 batting line with 56 homers, 55 doubles, five triples and seven steals in 1029 plate appearances with Baltimore’s top affiliate in Norfolk. Stowers has been between 12% and 30% better than average at the plate in each of his four seasons with the Tides, by measure of wRC+.

Defensively, he’s seen time at all three positions but logged most of his time in right field. Baseball America ranked him ninth among O’s prospects last year (and seventh the year prior), touting his above-average speed, plus power and plus arm. Stowers has long had some strikeout issues and an aggressive approach at the plate, but he’s also walked in a hearty 11.8% of his Triple-A plate appearances. He hits right-handed pitching better than lefties, as one would expect from a slugging lefty bat, but Stowers has posted an OPS between .781 and 1.018 versus lefties in each of the past four seasons (minors and majors combined). He might never be a star, but to this point in his career, the Stanford product has looked like he could be more than the prototypical platoon slugger with minimal defensive value.

With another 51 days of service this year, Stowers would reach a full season of MLB service time, thus putting him on pace for arbitration in the 2026-27 offseason and free agency in the 2029-30 offseason. If he spends fewer than 51 days on a big league roster or injured list, that timeline to free agency would be pushed back a year. However, he’d be a very likely Super Two candidate at that point, so his arbitration timeline would remain the same — he’d just be eligible four times rather than three before free agency.

Stowers is the type of interesting trade candidate who could appeal to both contending and non-contending teams alike. He’s had a decent amount of success in Triple-A, has at least a half decade of control remaining (plus a minor league option beyond the current season), and has a limited path to an everyday role with his current club. He’d appeal to a rebuilding club as a possible return for a trade chip or perhaps to a win-now club looking for an affordable upside play in the outfield corners. Both Meyer and MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko have suggested recently that Stowers could be moved (likely for pitching).

It’s of course possible that he could be a factor for the Orioles themselves in future seasons, as Anthony Santander is a free agent this winter, while Austin Hays and Cedric Mullins could end up as trade or non-tender candidates themselves. However, even if the O’s move on from the veteran trio of Santander, Hays and Mullins before Opening Day 2025, they’ll still have Colton Cowser, Kjerstad, Mayo and Norby in the outfield mix. Both Norby and Mayo have primarily been infielders, but Baltimore’s infield is quite crowded — particularly if Jackson Holliday eventually seizes a spot — which could push Norby to left field and/or push Mayo to right field.

It’s all a “good problem to have,” but Stowers is 26 (27 in January) and down to one option year beyond the current campaign. As Hyde said, it shouldn’t come as a surprise one way or another if he’s getting a full look sooner than later. Just for fun, let’s see what MLBTR readers think about Stowers’ future with a poll:

What will the Orioles do with Kyle Stowers?
Trade him before July 30 77.18% (2,232 votes)
Keep him -- he's part of the long-term outfield in Baltimore. 13.24% (383 votes)
Trade him this offseason 9.58% (277 votes)
Total Votes: 2,892

Poll: Who Will Win The 2024 Home Run Derby?

By | at

The 2024 All-Star break festivities are already well underway, with the Futures Game in the books and the second of three draft days currently taking place. Tonight, the Home Run Derby will take center stage at 7pm Central time, with these participants:

The winner will get $1MM, with $500K for the runner-up and $150K for everyone else in the field. There’s also a $100K bonus for the player who hits the longest home run. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. won last year but opted not to defend his title, so there will be a new champion, though Alonso has two previous titles from 2019 and 2021 and will be looking for a third.

This year’s format will be different from previous versions, with Cole Jacobson of MLB.com providing a rundown. The primary change is that there will be no head-to-head matchups in the first round, as the four players with the most home runs will advance. If two players tie, the longest home run will be a tiebreaker. Previously, the knockout-style bracket system started right away but this year’s version won’t see that until the field has been narrowed to four. Once the knockout stage begins, ties will be settled by 60 seconds of extra time. If the players are still tied, they will engage in three-swing showdowns until they are no longer tied.

In the first two rounds, players with have three minutes, which drops to two minutes in the final round. The three-minute rounds will now have a 40-pitch maximum while the two-minute round will feature a 27-pitch maximum.

The bonus time is also different. Previous versions featured 30 seconds of automatic extra time, which jumped to 60 seconds if the player hit two or more home runs 440 feet or longer. This year, the bonus time will continue until a player record three “outs,” which is a swing that doesn’t result in a home run. If a player hits a home run 425 feet or longer in the bonus period, he will get a fourth out.

Of the eight players competing this year, Henderson has the most homers this year with 28. He is followed by Ozuna at 26, Ramírez at 23, Alonso and Hernández at 19, García at 17, Witt at 16 and Bohm at 11.

Who do you want to win and who do you think will win? Have you say in the polls below!

Who Do You Want To Win The 2024 Derby?
Teoscar Hernández 21.53% (1,921 votes)
Pete Alonso 18.42% (1,644 votes)
Gunnar Henderson 15.56% (1,389 votes)
Bobby Witt Jr. 11.35% (1,013 votes)
Marcell Ozuna 10.65% (950 votes)
José Ramírez 8.18% (730 votes)
Alec Bohm 7.31% (652 votes)
Adolis García 7.00% (625 votes)
Total Votes: 8,924
Who Do You Think Will Win The 2024 Derby?
Pete Alonso 25.99% (1,512 votes)
Teoscar Hernández 22.98% (1,337 votes)
Gunnar Henderson 14.01% (815 votes)
Marcell Ozuna 11.33% (659 votes)
Adolis García 8.44% (491 votes)
Bobby Witt Jr. 7.13% (415 votes)
José Ramírez 5.29% (308 votes)
Alec Bohm 4.83% (281 votes)
Total Votes: 5,818

Will The Rangers Sell At The Deadline?

By | at

The Rangers entered the 2024 season looking like a potential juggernaut. Not only was the club coming off a World Series championship in 2023, but they were looking forward to the rookie campaigns of top prospects Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford, which were widely expected to further bolster an excellent lineup anchored by 2023 AL MVP runner-up Corey Seager, third-place finisher Marcus Semien, and ALCS MVP Adolis Garcia. On the pitching side, the club had added a pair of back-end relievers to their shaky bullpen in the form of David Robertson and Kirby Yates.

While their rotation wouldn’t be at full strength entering the year, the promise of midseason reinforcements in the form of Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Tyler Mahle was more than enough to inspire confidence that Texas was on the right trajectory to return to the postseason and defend the first World Series title in franchise history. Projection systems felt similarly: PECOTA at Baseball Prospectus gave the Rangers strong playoff odds of 55.4% in their preseason projections. Those playoff odds have fallen to just 14.6% entering play today, however, and it’s not hard to see why.

Carter and Langford have both struggled to below average slash lines in their rookie seasons and have each spent time on the injured list this year. They were joined by young third baseman Josh Jung on the injured list, as the 26-year-old has made it into just four games this season amid a number of setbacks as he works his way back from an early-season wrist fracture. In addition to those youngsters not provided the offensive impact expected from them headed into the season, the club’s core hitters have also taken steps back after strong 2023 campaigns. Semien (90 wRC+) and Garcia (91 wRC+) have both been around 10% worse than league average at the plate this year after big seasons last year, while Seager’s 122 wRC+ is well above average but a far cry from the 6.1 fWAR campaign he posted last year that saw him finish second to only Shohei Ohtani in AL MVP voting.

The club has similarly struggled to get the most out of its role players. Utility bat Ezequiel Duran was an above-average hitter in 2023 but crashed back down to Earth this year, slashing just .256/.294/.324 (74 wRC+) before being optioned to the minors in late June. Catcher Jonah Heim as struggled similarly, with a 76 wRC+ just one year after pairing his Gold Glove defense behind the plate with an above average slash line. The one bright spot offensively has been infielder Josh Smith, who has broken out in a big way and slashed .293/.386/.451 (139 wRC+) as the club’s regular third baseman in Jung’s absence.

All those offensive woes have added up to a 41-48 record for the Rangers, and things get all the more worrisome when you consider the fact that they’ve won just 25 of their 59 games since May 1. The club’s .424 winning percentage over that span is roughly on par with the record the Angels have posted this year. Between the pronounced struggles at the plate this year and their familiar struggles in the bullpen (their relievers’ 4.46 ERA is second-worst among all AL clubs), Rangers brass have been left in the uncomfortable situation of having to seriously consider a sell-off just months after parading through Dallas in celebration of championship.

The club certainly has pieces to sell if that’s the route they choose to take. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported earlier this morning that rival GMs “expect” the Rangers to make several notable pitchers on expiring contracts available. That group is led by Scherzer but also includes Robertson, Yates, Andrew Heaney, and Michael Lorenzen. Each of those arms would surely receive plenty of interest on a trade market that’s facing a relative dearth of quality pitching options, particularly when looking at rental starting pitching. Each of Scherzer, Heaney, and Lorenzen would fall into that latter category, while Robertson has been dealt at each of the past two trade deadlines. Yates could be among the most coveted relievers dealt this summer if the Rangers were to decide to move him given his eye-popping 0.86 ERA, 35.8% strikeout rate, and history as an All-Star caliber closer who led the majors with 41 saves back in 2019.

With so many interesting pieces to sell and the club falling further behind the Mariners and Astros in the AL West by the day, it’s easy to make the argument that the team ought to pull the plug on 2024 and start focusing on the future, when Seager will be joined in the lineup by a healthy Jung and the club’s pair of rookies in the outfield will have another year of development under their belts. Appealing as that might seem from an outside perspective, however, Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News noted this morning that GM Chris Young made clear to reporters yesterday that the club has not yet decided on a path for the trade deadline, and is still open to the possibility the club plays their way back into contention.

“I believe in this team,” Young said, as relayed by Grant. “I believe they are capable of a run. We just have to put ourselves in a better position so that nothing is insurmountable. This team had a 40-20 run last year. It’s in there.”

There’s certainly reasons for the Rangers to hold out hope the club can fight their way back into contention this year. Semien will celebrate his 34th birthday in September, and as he enters his mid-30’s it’s fair to wonder if this year’s meager .232/.296/.383 slash line is closer to what he’ll produce going forward than last year’s more impressive .276/.348/.478 line. 31-year-old Garcia and 30-year-old Seager are both younger than Semien but also now on the wrong side of 30, and that’s not to mention the uncertainty surrounding 36-year-old deGrom and his checkered injury history. Semien, Seager, and deGrom are due a combined $98.5MM in 2025. With so much money tied up in that trio and key pieces like Scherzer and Eovaldi on the verge of free agency, it’s fair to wonder if this year may be the club’s best shot at another postseason run with their current group.

With just over three weeks remaining until the trade deadline on July 30, how will the Rangers proceed? Have your say in the poll below:

Will The Rangers Sell Off At The Trade Deadline?
No, the Rangers won't sell and will try to return to the playoffs. 54.63% (1,783 votes)
Yes, the Rangers will be sellers this summer. 45.37% (1,481 votes)
Total Votes: 3,264
Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top