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MLBTR Poll: Braves’ Fifth Starter

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The Braves have opened their 2023 season facing a great deal of uncertainty in the rotation. The club went into camp with a battle for the fifth spot in the rotation, expecting Bryce Elder, Ian Anderson, and Michael Soroka to be the favorites for the role. That didn’t come to pass, however, as Soroka was slowed early in camp while both Anderson and Elder struggled, opening the door for Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd to elevate themselves on the organizational depth chart with strong springs. MLBTR held a poll toward the end of Spring Training regarding which of the two young lefties should start the regular season in the rotation, which Shuster won with 68.56% of the vote.

Ultimately, the Braves were never forced to make a decision between Dodd and Shuster for the fifth spot, as Kyle Wright began the season on the injured list, allowing both lefties to open the season in the rotation. Since that time, the rotation picture in Atlanta has gotten far more hectic. Club ace Max Fried went on the injured list with a hamstring injury, while Anderson went on the IL in the minors due to elbow issues, leaving Elder to join the rotation in Fried’s stead. Meanwhile, both Shuster and Dodd have struggled to open the season.

With Wright expected to make his first start of the season on Tuesday and Fried expected to miss roughly the fifteen day minimum, the Braves find themselves once again forced to make a decision on who their fifth starter should be once the front four of Fried, Wright, Spencer Strider, and Charlie Morton are all healthy and starting every fifth day. With Soroka still not fully ramped up, it appears the options for the club’s fifth rotation spot are Dodd, Shuster, and Elder, each of whom have made at least one start for the club this season.

Shuster appears to be the least likely of the three options. The 24-year old lefty has made two starts for Atlanta so far this season, but has struggled in both. In his major league debut, Shuster allowed four runs in 4 2/3 innings against the Nationals, allowing six hits and 5 walks while striking out just one. His second start was worryingly similar to his first, albeit against a much more threatening Padres team than the lowly Nats: four runs in four innings of work on six hits with four walks and four strikeouts.

While Shuster impressed with a 1.74 ERA in 20 2/3 innings of work this spring, he’s appeared over-matched two starts into his big league career, and it seems safe to assume that the Braves will allow him time in Triple-A to right the ship before returning him to the big league rotation, barring further injuries to the big league club.

Dodd has a stronger case for a longer leash in the rotation than Shuster, having impressed in his MLB debut by holding a loaded Cardinals lineup to just one run over five innings of work, striking out three while walking none. Dodd’s first start of the season showed the same promise as his spring performance, where he posted a 2.00 ERA in 18 innings of work, striking out 20 while walking just four. Unfortunately, Dodd’s second start was not as successful as his first, as he struggled badly in 4 1/3 innings against the Padres, allowing seven runs on ten hits (two home runs) and a walk while striking out three.

After such a difficult second start, it’s reasonable to wonder if Dodd might also benefit from additional time in Triple-A before becoming a mainstay in the Braves’ rotation. After all, the 24-year old has made just one start in Triple-A, with only 53 innings of experience above High-A in the minor leagues.

That lack of experience seems likely to open the door for Elder as the most likely option to stick in Atlanta as a member of the rotation once Fried returns from the injured list. Though Elder struggled badly in Spring Training surrendering three home runs and five walks in just 11 2/3 innings of work, he dominated the Cardinals for six innings in his first start of the season on Wednesday, allowing no runs on two hits while striking out six over six innings of work. Though his spring problems with the free pass carried over into the regular season as he walked three in his season debut, Elder was able to find success in the big leagues last year in spite of a 10.1% walk rate, posting a 3.17 ERA in 54 innings of work last season.

With Fried set to miss at least another week of action, both Dodd and Elder figure to get at least one more start before the Braves make a decision, to say nothing of the possibility that an injury elsewhere in the rotation or a setback for Fried could delay the decision even further. Barring those outcomes, who should the Braves keep in the rotation going forward? Is Elder’s experience and past success in the big leagues too valuable to pass up, or should the Braves stick with their initial decision and give the fifth spot in the rotation to one of Dodd or Shuster?

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Angels’ Sixth Starter

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The Angels have run six-man rotations in recent seasons. They’re expected to do the same this year, although manager Phil Nevin has already indicated the club will be a little less rigid than in prior years to try to get more innings for their top arms.

The Halos had an off day on the second day of the season, mitigating the need for a sixth starter the first time through. They had an extra day to get a second start from Shohei Ohtani yesterday before settling on a sixth starter.

After today’s scheduled off day, the Angels play on six consecutive days. Sam Blum of the Athletic tweets the Angels are likely to turn to their sixth starter for their April 12 matchup with the Nationals. It remains unclear whom Nevin will give the first crack to assume that role behind Ohtani, Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers, Tyler Anderson and José Suarez.

The most likely candidates appear to be left-hander Tucker Davidson and righty Griffin Canning. Davidson, acquired in last summer’s Raisel Iglesias trade with Atlanta, is out of minor league option years. He has to stick on the MLB roster in some capacity if the Halos don’t want to chance losing him. They could deploy him out of the bullpen, where he made his only appearance of the season on April 1. Davidson tossed four innings of mop-up work to finish off a blowout win in Oakland. That was only his second relief appearance at the MLB level, as he’s started 16 of 18 big league games.

Davidson threw 52 innings between Atlanta and Anaheim last season. He was tagged for a 6.75 ERA, walking 14.4% of opponents while striking out 13.7% of batters faced. That kind of production obviously isn’t sufficient but the Halos have kept him on the 40-man roster, clearly believing he’s capable of taking a step forward. Davidson had been solid over 15 Triple-A starts last year, with an above-average 27.8% strikeout rate and solid 7% walk percentage more encouraging than his 4.59 ERA there lets on.

Canning is currently on the 15-day injured list. He opened the season on the shelf with a groin strain, but the issue seems exceedingly minor. The UCLA product made a rehab start for Low-A Inland Empire this evening, working five innings and 92 pitches. Assuming he responds well in the next few days, it seems he’s on track for a quick reinstatement. Canning is first eligible to return on April 12, so his timetable could align with the Angels’ first need for a sixth starter.

If he got the nod, it’d be his first big league outing since July 2021. Canning has lost the past year and a half to back injuries. One of the organization’s more promising pitching prospects a few seasons ago, he looked like a possible mid-rotation arm when he worked to a 3.99 ERA over 11 starts during the shortened season. Canning surrendered a 5.60 ERA through his first 14 outings in 2021 before the back issues that cost him more than 18 months. He has 209 1/3 MLB innings under his belt, almost all of them as a starter. Unlike Davidson, Canning can still be optioned for another season.

While Davidson and Canning seem the top candidates for sixth starter work, they’re not the only options. Righty Jaime Barria indicated in Spring Training he had his sights set on the job. Barria had worked almost exclusively in long relief in 2022, throwing 79 1/3 innings across 35 appearances. He posted a 2.61 ERA out of the bullpen but without huge strikeout or ground-ball numbers.

Barria had primarily been a starter before last season, working to a 4.49 ERA built on solid control. Like Davidson, Barria has made one appearance out of the bullpen this season. He tallied 3 2/3 frames of low-leverage work in a blowout loss to Seattle on Tuesday. He’s also out of options and has to stick in the majors in some capacity.

Chase Silseth is also on the 40-man roster and started seven games as a rookie last year. The right-hander showed intriguing velocity but was hit hard in his initial MLB look. He started the year on optional assignment to Triple-A Salt Lake. Kenny Rosenberg and Jhonathan Diaz also got brief rotation showings last season, though neither occupies a spot on the 40-man at this point. It’s unlikely any of that group is in consideration for MLB starts this early in the year.

Who should get the first crack for the Angels when they turn to a sixth starter?

(poll link for app users)

 

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The AL East?

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The AL East was perhaps the strongest division in baseball last season, with three teams that made the postseason, four that finished above .500, and a fifth place team that would have finished third in most other divisions. Given that divisional strength last season, it’s no surprise that Fangraphs’ Playoff Odds give every team in the AL East at least an 8% chance to make the playoffs. By contrast, no other division’s projected last place team tops Detroit’s 3.1% odds. With Opening Day just over a week away, let’s take a look at the AL East’s five clubs (in order of their finish in the 2022 standings) in search of the division’s next champion.

New York Yankees (99-63 in 2022)

The Yankees were historically dominant in the first half of the 2022 season, but struggled to a 43-42 finish in the regular season after the calendar flipped to July, largely buoyed by the heroics of AL MVP (and pending free agent) Aaron Judge. Most of the focus this offseason in the Bronx was on retaining Judge, which they did on a nine-year deal. They also re-signed Anthony Rizzo to lock down first base, but signed just two new players to big league deals this offseason: lefty ace Carlos Rodon signed a six-year deal while reliever Tommy Kahnle signed on for two years. What’s worth, both of those free agent acquisitions are expected to open the season on the injured list alongside trade deadline pickups Harrison Bader and Frankie Montas.

Between an offseason marked by a low quantity (though high quality) of additions and a slew of spring injuries, this Yankees team looks unlikely to reach the heights they did in the first half of 2022, having lost the likes of Jameson Taillon and Matt Carpenter to free agency this offseason, but perhaps healthy returns from the likes of Rodon and Bader can help them improve upon their second half struggles from last season, to say nothing of exciting prospects like Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe who seem likely to impact the club at some point this year.

Toronto Blue Jays (92-70 in 2022)

After a solid campaign that saw the Blue Jays return to the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2016, Toronto was aggressive in mixing up their roster throughout the offseason. In an effort to get more left-handed and improve the defense, the club added Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier to their outfield mix at the expense of Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and top catching prospect Gabriel Moreno while also landing Brandon Belt to solidify the DH spot. As for the pitching staff, Chris Bassitt was brought in to solidify the middle of the rotation behind Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah, while Erik Swanson will strengthen the back of the Toronto bullpen.

While the Blue Jays certainly made significant changes over the course of the season, whether they can surpass the Yankees to claim the division crown will likely require returns to form for some players who performed below expectations in 2022, such as Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi, both of whom figure to open the season in the rotation despite posting ERAs north of 5.00 last season.

Tampa Bay Rays (86-76 in 2022)

After making their fourth consecutive postseason in 2022, the Rays had a very quiet offseason, with no major trade acquisitions and right-hander Zach Eflin standing as their lone major league signing. Indeed, it seems most of Tampa Bay’s resources were dedicated to extensions, as they agreed to long-term deals with Pete Fairbanks, Yandy Diaz, and Jeffery Springs shortly after the calendar flipped to 2023. That left the roster churn this offseason to be defined by departures rather than additions, as key players like Kevin Kiermaier, Mike Zunino and Ji-Man Choi departed the organization.

Still, the Rays have plenty of assets in place with which to make things interesting, as young players like Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen, and Isaac Parades turned in excellent performances in 2022. With so few changes to the roster following a season where they finished 13 games back in the division race, however, the Rays are likely going to have to bank on improved health from stars Tyler Glasnow and Wander Franco along with bigger contributions from players who struggled last season like Brandon Lowe, Taylor Walls and Francisco Mejia if they are to claim the NL East crown this year.

Baltimore Orioles (83-79 in 2022)

The Orioles were one of the most fascinating stories of the 2022 season, as the club surged in the summer months toward surprise contention after not having won more than 54 games since 2017, though they ultimately failed to make the postseason. With young talent like Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and Grayson Rodriguez all either already in the big leagues or knocking on the door, with still more prospects to come, it seemed as though the rebuild in Baltimore was over.

Expectations have surely been tempered among the Orioles faithful after a relatively quiet offseason, however. Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier, and Mychal Givens made up the club’s free agent signings this offseason. That said, Mike Elias’s front office did fairly well on the trade market, picking up Cole Irvin to solidify the rotation and James McCann to back up Rutschman. After a surprise surge over .500 in 2022, it’s easy to imagine the Orioles slipping back underwater in 2023. That being said, with so much young talent breaking into the majors and percolating in the upper levels of the farm system, they certainly can’t be ruled out from making a surprise push into playoff contention or even toward the division title.

Boston Red Sox (78-84 in 2022)

2022 was a difficult season for the Red Sox, as the club finished three games under .500 despite opting not to sell off valuable players like Xander Bogaerts, Nathan Eovaldi and J.D. Martinez who went on to walk in free agency this offseason. The headline move of this offseason for the Red Sox has to be Rafael Devers signing a ten-year extension back in January, but the Red Sox were active players in the offseason marketplace as well, adding Mastaka Yoshida, Corey Kluber, Justin Turner, Kenley Jansen, and Adalberto Mondesi, among others. Still, the departures of Bogaerts, Eovaldi, Martinez, Rich Hill, and Michael Wacha, in addition to the deadline trade that sent Christian Vazquez out of the organization, all left plenty of question marks on the roster.

Those questions are particularly worrisome up the middle, where the Red Sox figure to use Adam Duvall, Enrique Hernandez, Reese McGuire, and Christian Arroyo to open the season. The Red Sox enter 2023 with more than enough talent on the roster to attempt to return to contention this season. That being said, there’s enough question marks and holes in the roster that it’s just as easy to see another sub-.500 season from this club as it is to see a return to the playoffs after missing out in 2022.

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While this division ultimately seems most likely to come down to the Yankees and the Blue Jays, who both finished well ahead of the competition in 2022 and improved most significantly over the offseason, the AL East could certainly see all five of its clubs in the thick of the postseason hunt come the summertime. What do MLBTR readers think? Will the Yankees reclaim the crown, will the Blue Jays or Rays surge from their Wild Card spots to capture the division title, or will the Orioles or Red Sox surprise? Let us know in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Braves’ Fifth Starter

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The Braves made a surprising decision this week, optioning both Bryce Elder and Ian Anderson to Triple-A Gwinnett. That takes the duo out of consideration for the fifth spot in the rotation. Atlanta’s top four of Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton is settled, but the final slot now looks as if it’ll go to someone previously expected to open the year in the minors.

With injuries to Michael Soroka and Kolby Allard keeping them out of the season-opening mix, Elder and Anderson had seemed the favorites for the last rotation spot. Instead, it now seems the Braves will turn to a pitcher with no MLB experience out of the gate. Prospects Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd look as if they’re battling for the final spot.

Jared Shuster

The 24-year-old Shuster was Atlanta’s first-round pick out of Wake Forest in 2020. He split the 2022 campaign between Double-A Mississippi and Gwinnett, working to a 3.29 ERA in 139 1/3 innings. He punched out 26.2% of batters faced compared to a modest 6.9% walk rate overall. Shuster’s strikeout numbers dropped precipitously after a midseason jump to Triple-A, however. He’d fanned 30% of opponents in 17 appearances with Mississippi but that mark fell to 19.4% over 10 outings for the Stripers.

Baseball America considers Shuster the #3 prospect in the Atlanta farm system. The outlet credits him with a plus changeup and above-average control. He’s not a particularly hard thrower and scouts peg his slider as a fringe-average pitch. Shuster has thrown 10 2/3 innings this spring, allowing only one run with 16 strikeouts and two walks.

Dylan Dodd

Dodd, also 24, was Atlanta’s third-round pick in 2021. An underslot senior signee coming out of Southeast Missouri State, Dodd moved across three minor league levels in his first full professional season. He started 16 games with High-A Rome and nine for Mississippi before closing out the ’22 campaign with one appearance in Gwinnett. The left-hander soaked up 142 innings over the three levels, posting a 3.36 ERA with a 26% strikeout percentage while only walking 5.3% of opponents.

Ranked the #6 prospect in the organization by Baseball America, Dodd has a similar pitchability profile as Shuster. His fastball also sits in the low-90s and he leans heavily on a pair of advanced breaking pitches in his changeup and slider. He’s an excellent strike-thrower who’s generally regarded as a solid bet to be a back-of-the-rotation starter. Dodd has tossed 8 1/3 scoreless innings in exhibition play, punching out 11 without handing out any free passes.

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The book on Shuster and Dodd is fairly similar. They’re both advanced left-handers with strong secondary stuff and control to drive the profile despite middling velocity. They’re each recent college draftees without a ton of professional experience but already in their mid-20s. Both pitchers are having excellent showings in Grapefruit League play, apparently vaulting themselves past Elder and Anderson on the immediate depth chart. Neither is yet on the 40-man roster but Atlanta has a vacancy after losing Dennis Santana on waivers last month and could clear more room by placing Tyler Matzek and Huascar Ynoa on the 60-day injured list.

It stands to reason both Shuster and Dodd will make their MLB debuts at some point this year. One of the duo now figures to break camp with the big league club and assume a key role from the season’s outset. Who will get the nod?

(poll link for app users)

 

Poll: Will The Yankees Trade Isiah Kiner-Falefa Before Opening Day?

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From the moment the Yankees originally acquired Isiah Kiner-Falefa from the Twins, the expectation has been that he’d serve as a bridge to top infield prospects Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe. At the time of the trade — which also saw Josh Donaldson and Ben Rortvedt go the Bronx while sending Gary Sanchez and Gio Urshela to Minnesota — Kiner-Falefa had two years of club control remaining. That generally aligned with the timetables for both Peraza and Volpe, allowing them to develop in ’22 while Kiner-Falefa held down shortstop before perhaps moving into a utility role.

That’s generally how it’s played out. Peraza impressed in an 18-game cup of coffee late in the 2022 season and entered camp with a chance to break the Opening Day roster as the Yankees’ everyday shortstop. Volpe entered spring training as a longer shot to make the Opening Day roster for a variety of reasons. He’s a year younger than Peraza, has just 99 plate appearances above the Double-A level and is not currently on the 40-man roster. Still, he’s turned in an impressive spring training and begun to see some time at second base, further planting the seed that he could be in the Majors alongside Peraza sooner than later — certainly at some point in 2023.

The looming ascension of both Peraza and Volpe is enough to cloud Kiner-Falefa’s role on the team on its own, but last year’s strong debut from the versatile Oswaldo Cabrera only adds to the pile-up of infield talent. The switch-hitting 24-year-old worked primarily in the outfield last year but has experience at all four infield spots. After hitting .247/.312/.429 in 171 plate appearances as a 23-year-old rookie, he’s staked his claim to a spot on this year’s roster as well.

The Yankees were aware of this depth but still saw value in holding onto Kiner-Falefa at a generally reasonable $6MM price point for his final season of club control. Spring injuries are always possible, and there was certainly a scenario where any combination of Peraza, Volpe and/or Cabrera got to spring training and looked vastly overmatched at the plate. That hasn’t really been the case, and it’s made Kiner-Falefa’s role on the 2023 club look a bit more questionable — particularly with Gleyber Torres still penciled in at second base and Donaldson returning at the hot corner.

To that end, the Yankees have begun getting Kiner-Falefa some reps in the outfield. The 27-year-old said just this morning that he expects to play center field in Friday’s Grapefruit League game (Twitter link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). With Harrison Bader out for the first several weeks of the season due to an oblique strain, Kiner-Falefa could bolster his value to the Yankees if he looks capable of handling some reps on the grass, be it in center field or in left. Aaron Judge or Aaron Hicks can both handle all three outfield spots, so strictly excelling in center isn’t necessarily a requirement for Kiner-Falefa.

That said, it’s hard not to recognize the possibility of a Kiner-Falefa trade coming together at some point. The Yankees, after all, have been loath to cross the fourth and final luxury tax barrier. Their backs are right up against that threshold at the moment, and dealing Kiner-Falefa would trim $6MM off that luxury bill, creating some breathing room that could be a key for the front office this summer when the trade deadline is looming.

Beyond that, Kiner-Falefa is still a useful utility option for a team that perhaps doesn’t have as much infield depth as the Yankees — and perhaps even a starting-caliber option on a handful of clubs. Defensive metrics are split on his glovework at shortstop, but he can at the very least handle the position and has won a Gold Glove at third base. He’s a capable second baseman, has experience catching and could be an emergency option behind the dish, and now he’s at least familiarizing himself with the outfield.

At the plate, Kiner-Falefa isn’t a standout but can at least provide a solid batting average and get on base at a roughly league-average clip. He lacks power but also has plus bat-to-ball skills. The .269/.316/.348 slash he’s authored over the past three seasons is about 14% worse than league average, by measure of wRC+. It’s not good, but Kiner-Falefa is far from a black hole at the plate and has value with the glove and on the bases, where he’s gone 42-for-51 (82.4%) in stolen bases over the past two seasons.

Kiner-Falefa’s fit with the Yankees isn’t as clean as it was before Peraza, Volpe and Cabrera were MLB-ready or extremely close to it, but there’s probably still a role for him if Volpe opens the season in Triple-A. Even if the Yankees hold onto Kiner-Falefa, however, he could be pushed out of the picture by midseason if all of Peraza, Volpe and Cabrera remain healthy. A trade at some point, whether this summer or even before Opening Day, shouldn’t come as a shock — especially considering the aforementioned luxury-tax benefits a deal would bring about.

The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner opined in this morning’s mailbag column that he thinks the Yankees will explore a Kiner-Falefa trade between now and Opening Day. That certainly doesn’t mean a deal will come together, but it’s a good indicator of what could be on the horizon with regard to the versatile infielder’s future in the Bronx.

What do MLBTR readers think?

Poll: Who Will Win The AL Central?

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The Guardians rode a late surge in 2022 to a runaway division title in the American League Central, trouncing the second-place White Sox and third-place Twins by 11 and 14 games, respectively. It was a testament both to the development of several key young players in Cleveland as well as some staggering injury woes both in Chicago and Minnesota. Further down the division ranks, the rebuilds in Detroit and Kansas City both hit roadblocks, with the Tigers and Royals losing 96 and 97 games, respectively.

There was plenty of offseason activity throughout the division, however, and we can expect to see several touted prospects make their debuts in 2023 as well. Will that change the outlook? Let’s take a quick look at each team heading into the season.

Cleveland Guardians (92-70 in 2022)

The Guardians hit the second-fewest home runs of any team in baseball last season but nonetheless ranked 15th in runs scored, offsetting their lack of power with far and away the lowest team strikeout rate in baseball (18.2%). The pitching staff posted a collective 3.47 ERA, ranking sixth in the Majors, and while they were only 12th in strikeout rate (23.2%), they also had the game’s fifth-best walk rate (7.3%). Cleveland also dominated in one other key area: health. Guardians players spent the fewest cumulative days on the injured list of any team in the Majors at just 709, per Spotrac. The second-lowest team, the Orioles, clocked in at 790. Cleveland had less than one-third of the IL days of MLB’s two worst teams in that regard: the Reds (2,638) and the Twins (2,363).

Over the winter, Cleveland signed Josh Bell and Mike Zunino, adding some thump to the lineup. Zunino, in particular is an all-or-nothing hitter at the plate, but Guardians catchers in 2022 were the least-productive in the American League, so he should be an upgrade over last year’s backstops. Top prospects like catcher Bo Naylor, outfielder George Valera and infielder Brayan Rocchio are among the many hitters on the cusp of the Majors and should all be key reinforcements as Cleveland defends its crown.

Chicago White Sox (81-81 in 2022)

The White Sox were tanked by key injuries in 2022, with each of Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, Lance Lynn, Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Yasmani Grandal, Michael Kopech, Aaron Bummer and Garrett Crochet spending at least a month on the shelf. The Sox ranked in the bottom third of the league in homers, the bottom half in runs scored and were also a middle-of-the-pack club in terms of rotation and bullpen ERA. Defensively, they were a mess, thanks in no small part to the outfield alignment. The Sox ranked 23rd in the Majors in Outs Above Average (-16), 27th in Defensive Runs Saved (-35) and dead last in Ultimate Zone Rating (-42.2).

The decision to let Jose Abreu walk in free agency was surely a blow to the clubhouse and lineup alike, but it’ll also allow Andrew Vaughn to slide from right field to his natural position, first base. Jimenez can spend significant time at DH, too, now that Andrew Benintendi has been signed to play left field. The Sox didn’t do much to address right field, where Gavin Sheets will try to fend off top prospect Oscar Colas, who should debut early in the season. They’ll hope that Mike Clevinger can replace the resurgent Johnny Cueto in the rotation, and Elvis Andrus is back to handle second base. All of baseball is pulling for closer Liam Hendriks as he battles cancer, and while his health takes priority above all else, there’s no getting around the fact that his absence hurts the relief corps as the Sox look for better results in 2023.

Minnesota Twins (78-84 in 2022)

The Twins were the opposite of the Guardians in terms of player health in 2022, and they’ll hope more than anything that their roster can remain on the field more in 2023. Even with all their health woes, the Twins still ranked in the top half of MLB in home runs and placed 16th in runs scored. Their rotation’s 4.11 ERA was 19th in MLB, while the bullpen’s ERA sat right at MLB’s midpoint.

Minnesota was the most active team in the division this offseason, improbably retaining Carlos Correa after an unprecedented free-agent saga saw deals with the Giants and Mets fall through. The Twins also traded star infielder Luis Arraez to land righty Pablo Lopez and a pair of prospects from the Marlins, giving them the deepest rotation they’ve had in some time — health permitting. Lopez, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan, a returning Kenta Maeda and Bailey Ober is a strong sextet around which to build the staff. Meanwhile, the Twins keyed in on defense, depth and defensive versatility with their other acquisitions. Catcher Christian Vazquez and outfielders Joey Gallo and Michael A. Taylor are all standouts with the glove (to say nothing of Gallo’s obvious power potential). Kyle Farmer and Donovan Solano can play all over the infield (and, in Farmer’s place, even behind the plate in a pinch).

The bullpen was left as is, with the Twins believing deadline pickup Jorge Lopez, sophomore Jovani Moran (who excelled late in the season) and a returning Jorge Alcala can provide the necessary boost alongside breakout star Jhoan Duran. Oft-injured top prospect Royce Lewis should return this summer, and the Twins could also get late looks at infielders like Edouard Julien and Brooks Lee.

Detroit Tigers (66-96 in 2022)

The Tigers’ 2021-22 offseason was headlined by acquisitions of Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez, but by the end of the regular season those headlines shifted to a front office shuffle. The Tigers’ poor results led ownership to oust GM Al Avila and hire Giants GM Scott Harris as the new president of baseball operations. The 2022 Tigers saw key injuries to the entire core of their promising young rotation, with Casey Mize having Tommy John surgery, Tarik Skubal requiring flexor surgery and Matt Manning missing substantial time due to shoulder troubles. Center fielder Riley Greene and first baseman Spencer Torkelson didn’t develop as hoped in their rookie seasons. Baez and Rodriguez, meanwhile, didn’t live up to their respective contracts.

In Harris’ first offseason on the job, he traded relievers Gregory Soto and Joe Jimenez to add some near-MLB talent, including outfielder Matt Vierling, infielder Nick Maton and catcher Donny Sands. Free agents Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen were signed to help solidify a rotation that’ll also get righty Spencer Turnbull back after he missed the 2022 season recovering from 2021 Tommy John surgery. It was the type of modest offseason that’s generally expected for a newly hired baseball operations leader as they take time to get a feel for the organization before making more sweeping changes. Prospect-wise, pitcher Wilmer Flores and third baseman/outfielder Justyn-Henry Malloy are among the names who could potentially make their debuts this season.

Kansas City Royals (65-97 in 2022)

The Royals had their own front office shakeup, as president of baseball ops Dayton Moore was dismissed after more than 15 years atop the front office. He was replaced by his own longtime top lieutenant J.J. Picollo. That decision came on the heels of a 2022 season in which the Royals, who’ve been focusing their rebuild on drafting and developing college pitchers, posted the fourth-worst rotation ERA in MLB (4.76). Right-hander Brady Singer had a breakout season, but none of Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar or Kris Bubic has found much success in the big leagues, and recent No. 4 overall pick Asa Lacy hasn’t progressed in the minors.

Given the manner in which the pitching stalled out, the Royals added veterans Jordan Lyles and Ryan Yarbrough while also re-signing Zack Greinke. That’ll raise the floor of the rotation while perhaps still allowing for some of Lynch, Kowar, Bubic, Jonathan Heasley or Carlos Hernandez to force their way into the picture. In the lineup, they’ll hope for further steps forward from a promising core of hitters including Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Nick Pratto and MJ Melendez. Youngsters like second baseman Michael Massey, outfielder Drew Waters and infielder/outfielder Nate Eaton should all get prominent looks in 2023 as well.

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Projection systems are inherently divisive, so take this for what it’s worth, but FanGraphs gives the Guardians a slight edge on the Twins in 2023, with the White Sox in third place, followed by the Royals and the Tigers. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA, meanwhile, projects the Twins ever so slightly ahead of Cleveland, followed by Chicago in third place, Detroit in fourth and Kansas City in fifth.

Who do you think will win the AL Central?

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The AL West?

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The AL West, despite being home to the reigning World Series champions, figures to be among the more competitive divisions in the sport in 2023. According to the Playoff Odds at Fangraphs, it is the only division with four teams that have a better than 10% chance to win the division title in the coming campaign. All five clubs in the division have seen significant changes to their rosters over the course of the offseason. With Spring Training now in full swing and the heavy-lifting of the offseason largely done at this point, it let’s take a look at the AL West’s five clubs in search of the division’s next champion.

Houston Astros (106-56 in 2022)

En route to their 2022 World Series championship, the Astros had a phenomenal season, with AL Cy Young award winner Justin Verlander leading the pitching staff while each of Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, and Alex Bregman received MVP votes for their work in the starting lineup. The hitting corps didn’t change very drastically during the offseason, though they did upgrade at first base by replacing departing free agent Yuli Gurriel with longtime White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu. The pitching staff saw more significant change, as Verlander departed for New York while Houston was unable to sign a proper replacement for their staff ace over the offseason.

While Houston lost Verlander to free agency this offseason, the rotation still figures to have plenty of capable arms, with Framber Valdez set to take over as the new staff ace while youngster Cristian Javier looks to follow up on a breakout campaign in 2022. Both Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. have tantalizing upside, though each comes with question marks, and Jose Urquidy can be expected to be a reliable back-end starter for the Astros once again as well. One catalyst for Houston’s rotation could be top prospect Hunter Brown. Brown, who will play this season at age 24, dominated in his big league debut at the end of last season, posting a microscopic 0.89 ERA that was backed by a fantastic 1.98 FIP in 20 1/3 innings of work, though only 12 of those innings came as a starter. The young righty seems to be in prime position to make the Opening Day rotation with McCullers expected to start the season on the shelf.

Seattle Mariners (90-72 in 2022)

The Mariners ended the league’s longest playoff drought last season, earning a wild card berth and advancing to the ALDS before falling to Houston in a 3 game sweep. Seattle looks to improve on that performance in 2023, as the club added Teoscar Hernandez, Kolten Wong, and AJ Pollock to the lineup this offseason and expects to get a full season from ace Luis Castillo, who was acquired from the Reds at the trade deadline last year. That said, the club did lose some key players over the offseason as well: Mitch Haniger and Adam Frazier departed via free agency while Erik Swanson, Kyle Lewis, Jesse Winker, and Abraham Toro were among the players who departed in the club’s various trades this offseason.

Minimal prospect talent is expected to impact the big league club this season in Seattle, leaving the Mariners to rely on their aforementioned external additions and improvements from their returning players if they are to catch the Astros in the standings. Former top prospect Jarred Kelenic should get some run in left field to open the season in order to prove he has returned to form after struggling to this point in his big league career, while Robbie Ray will surely be looking to recapture the magic of his 2021 Cy Young season. Meanwhile, other players such as youngsters Julio Rodriguez and George Kirby as well as breakout catcher Cal Raleigh merely need to repeat their strong 2022 campaigns in order to contribute to a winning Mariners club this season.

Los Angeles Angels (73-89 in 2022)

The 2023 season stands as the last one during which the Angels will have two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani under club control, as he is set to hit free agency following the coming campaign. Given the urgency of the club’s situation, it’s no wonder than GM Perry Minasian was aggressive in his attempts to supplement the roster with quality depth. He appears to have been largely successful in that endeavor, having added Tyler Anderson, Matt Moore, and Carlos Estevez to the pitching staff while supplementing the lineup with Gio Urshela, Brandon Drury, and Hunter Renfroe. Those pitching deals rebuilt the back of a Halos bullpen that lost Raisel Iglesias in trade to the Braves last offseason while supplementing the rotation with a durable, mid-rotation starter. That being said, the offensive additions were the main attraction of Anaheim’s offseason, as they transformed what has for years amounted to something of a stars and scrubs lineup by providing manager Phil Nevin with the quality depth necessary to weather injuries to the club’s many stars.

Those stars, of course, will remain the focus of the club, as Ohtani and Mike Trout stand as perhaps the two best players in the entire sport while Anthony Rendon will look to live up to his $245MM contract after struggling with injuries in recent years. Still, other players emerged as quality regulars in 2022 as well, including Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers, Taylor Ward, and Luis Rengifo. Bounce-back seasons from any of Max Stassi, Jared Walsh, or David Fletcher would improve the club’s depth even more, to say nothing of the possibility that longtime top prospect Jo Adell finally lives up to his potential. Overall, there’s certainly reason to think this might finally be the year that Trout and Ohtani suit up together in the postseason, even though the club enters the season looking up at many of its division rivals in terms of playoff odds.

Texas Rangers (68-94 in 2022)

The Rangers had a second consecutive explosive offseason this winter as they completely transformed their big league rotation by adding Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, and Jake Odorizzi as starting options while retaining Martin Perez. The hitting corps stayed largely the same after Corey Seager and Marcus Semien joined the club last offseason, though Texas did add Robbie Grossman to their outfield mix and expects to get contributions from top prospect Josh Jung this year at third base.

With a solid bullpen that features Brock Burke, Jose LeClerc, and new addition Will Smith among its back-end options, the Rangers figure to be set up well in that regard. The lineup should be decent, if not awe-inspiring, as it Nathaniel Lowe and Adolis Garcia in addition to Seager and Semien, while Mitch Garver and Jonah Heim form an interesting duo behind the plate and Leody Taveras figures to contribute in center upon his return from an oblique strain later this year. The answer to just how far this Rangers club will be able to go surely lies in the health and production of the reconstructed rotation, which added the most dominant pitcher in baseball in deGrom and plenty of upside in Heaney and Eovaldi, though all three pitchers have struggled badly with injuries at various points throughout their careers. Should that front three remain healthy and effective, though, this Rangers team could certainly pitch its way into the postseason for the first time since 2016.

Oakland Athletics (60-102 in 2022)

The A’s were among the worst teams in baseball last season, and there’s little reason for fans in Oakland to have more optimism about the coming campaign. After sending Frankie Montas to the Yankees at the trade deadline last year, the A’s saw the departures of catcher Sean Murphy, starter Cole Irvin, and reliever A.J. Puk in trades this offseason while the club added young, unproven talent such as Esteury Ruiz, JJ Bleday, Kyle Muller, and Freddy Tarnok. Some quality players do remain on the roster, however, as the A’s have retained each of Ramon Laureano, Shea Langeliers, Paul Blackburn, Tony Kemp, and Seth Brown to this point.

Oakland also added a few veteran options in free agency during the offseason, picking up Jace Peterson, Aledmys Diaz, Jesus Aguiler, and Trevor May throughout the offseason. The highlight of the A’s offseason seems to be Shintaro Fujinami, who was posted to the MLB this offseason by the NPB’s Hanshin Tigers. Fujinami has tantalizing stuff, including a fastball that can touch over 100 mph, but has struggled with his control throughout his career. Even if the A’s are able to unlock Fujinami’s potential, however, it seems extremely unlikely that the club will be able to compete with the four clubs its looking up at in the AL West.

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While the Astros, as the reigning champions of not only the AL West but MLB itself, appear to be the favorite entering the 2023 season, each of the Mariners, Angels, and Rangers have plausible paths to not only contention but, perhaps, even the AL West crown headed into 2023. Though the same can’t be said for the Athletics, a four-team division race is sure to bring about excitement in the division all throughout the year.

What do you think? Will the Astros recapture the AL West crown for the sixth straight full season? Will the Mariners take another step forward and win their first AL West title since 2001? Will the Angels or Rangers leapfrog their competitors after a big offseason? Or will the Athletics surprise the baseball world against all odds? Let us know in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Poll: Who Will Win The 2023 World Baseball Classic?

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The 2023 World Baseball Classic kicks off tonight, technically Wednesday locally in Taiwan but the time difference will make it late Tuesday night for those watching in the Western Hemisphere. This will be the first time the tournament is held since 2017, as the pandemic threw the tournament off its planned four-year schedule and led to the postponement of the 2021 edition.

The first two tournaments in WBC history were won by Japan, followed by the Dominican Republic in 2013 and the United States in 2017. Puerto Rico was the runner-up in each of the past two tournaments, while South Korea and Cuba also have second-place finishes. Venezuela and the Netherlands have also made it as far as the semifinals.

This tournament figures to be perhaps the most star-studded edition thus far, as many of the top MLB players steered clear of previous iterations of the WBC. That doesn’t appear to be the case this year, with many marquee players suiting up. The American team features Mike Trout, Nolan Arenado, Mookie Betts and plenty of other All-Stars. The DR will have Manny Machado, Julio Rodríguez and Juan Soto. Shohei Ohtani is playing for Japan, Freddie Freeman for Canada, Francisco Lindor for Puerto Rico, Jose Altuve for Venezuela, Xander Bogaerts for the Netherlands, Tommy Edman for Korea, Julio Urías for Mexico, Joc Pederson for Israel and Vinnie Pasquantino for Italy. For the first time, the Cuban team will feature MLB players, with Luis Robert and Yoán Moncada coming aboard. There will also be plenty of intriguing players who have yet to make the jump to North America, such as Munetaka Murakami, Roki Sasaki, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jung Hoo Lee. The full rosters can be found here.

Many outlets consider either USA or DR to be the favorites, but there are many other star-studded rosters. Perhaps we’ll get a crazy upset from a Czech Republic team that’s manned by firefighters, real estate agents and school teachers and was recently profiled by David Waldstein of The New York Times.

What do you think? Who’s going to win it all this time? Have you say in the poll below! (Link to poll)

MLBTR Poll: Will Bryan Reynolds’ Situation Be Resolved Before Opening Day?

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Bryan Reynolds trade rumors have lingered over the offseason, even as there’s been nothing to indicate the Pirates have gotten seriously into discussions with any other club. As an All-Star player on a rebuilding team, Reynolds has drawn plenty of trade attention over the last couple years. The Bucs have steadfastly maintained a high asking price.

Against the backdrop of speculation has been the seeming stalemate between Reynolds and the Pirates in extension negotiations. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported over the weekend the club had offered $80MM over six years. With Reynolds eligible for arbitration through 2025, such a deal would’ve bought out three free agent seasons. According to Mackey, Reynolds’ camp had countered at $134MM over eight seasons. With discussions having stalled out, the 28-year-old requested a trade in December.

The Pirates attested that wouldn’t affect their asking price. That has seemingly borne out in the lack of substantive trade rumors over the nearly three months since then. Reynolds is back in Pirates camp. Both sides have expressed a willingness to reopen talks about an extension that could keep him in the Steel City for the long haul, though as of Saturday, the team hadn’t made a new offer.

The trade market has been dormant for the majority of the offseason. It’s entirely possible no swaps of significant note are made before Opening Day, although there are surely still plenty of teams that’d love to install Reynolds in their lineup. Teams like the Dodgers and Red Sox look likely to roll the dice on unproven options in center field. The Yankees, Braves and Rangers all have a handful of veterans for left field but explored more stable solutions at times this offseason.

Meanwhile, the Bucs and Reynolds’ camp at CAA Sports figure to touch base at some point over the coming weeks to see if they can bridge that reported $54MM gap. The deeper Reynolds gets into his arbitration seasons, the likelier it’d seem to become he prices himself out of the Pirates’ range. Perhaps they’re at that point already — even the organization’s $80MM offer would’ve represented a franchise record investment and was well shy of the asking price — but it seems each side is still amenable to negotiating despite Reynolds’ prior trade request.

Opening Day is a little over a month away. Spring Training is the most common time of year for teams and players to hammer out extensions. That’s often the result of a player setting an Opening Day deadline for those discussions, but Reynolds indicated over the weekend he had no such cutoff.

Will there be a resolution in the coming weeks, or will the uncertainty regarding the Bucs’ star carry into the regular season? Are the Pirates going to make a move with Reynolds before Opening Day: either by pulling off the long-speculated blockbuster or keeping him on a franchise-record contract?

(poll link for app users)

 

Poll: Who Signs First, Jurickson Profar Or Michael Wacha?

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Essentially from the moment MLB Trade Rumors published our annual top 50 free agents list, players immediately started flying off the board.  While the last few non-lockout offseasons saw a slowed free agent market, many of the biggest names of the 2022-23 class had already found new teams by the start of January…give or take Carlos Correa’s three-team saga, of course.  Now that Andrew Chafin has agreed to a deal with the Diamondbacks, only two players from that top-50 listing remain unsigned as Spring Training dawns: Jurickson Profar (ranked 33rd) and Michael Wacha (41st).

Profar voluntarily chose to test the open market, as he exercised an opt-out clause in his contract with the Padres.  Entering the third and final year of that deal, Profar took a $1MM buyout rather than the $7.5MM owed to him in 2023, thus making a $6.5MM bet that he could find a longer-term and more lucrative deal in free agency.  MLBTR agreed, projecting Profar for a two-year, $20MM deal.

Such a contract has yet to emerge for Profar, despite plenty of interest.  The Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, Marlins, Rangers, and Orioles have all been linked to Profar at various points this offseason, though Houston and Boston have seemingly already addressed needs in left field.  The other reported suitors have somewhat clearer needs in left field, even if in-house options abound for all four teams.  Other factors may also be at play for particular teams — for example, the Yankees are very close to surpassing the top luxury tax threshold ($293MM), and reportedly don’t want to hit that highest penalty line.

As Profar approaches his 30th birthday, it doesn’t look like he’ll ever live up to his former top-prospect status, yet he provided solid numbers in three of the last five seasons.  Of course, that isn’t the most consistent track record, and Profar’s .241/.326/.403 slash line over 2384 plate appearances since the start of the 2018 season works out to a barely above-average 101 wRC+.  While Profar had 110 wRC+ in 2022 and his 2.5 fWAR was the best of his career, this recent performance might not be enough to overcome a perception that is only a “good” player, and teams may not be willing to give a multi-year deal for just “good” (and somewhat unpredictable) performance going forward.

It can be assumed that Profar is at least looking to top that $6.5MM salary he left on the table in San Diego, but his current contract demands are unknown.  It could be that Profar is open to a one-year contract — or one guaranteed year with an option for 2024 — at an average annual value slightly higher than $6.5MM, so he can at least recoup that money and then test the market again next winter.  Profar is represented by the Boras Corporation, and Scott Boras is well-known both for waiting until deep into an offseason to find an acceptable deal for his clients, and for coming up with creative contracts that include flexibility for both the player and the team.

There is a bit more information about Wacha’s demands, since as of two weeks ago, the right-hander and his reps at CAA Sports were reportedly looking for a two-year contract in the range of $30MM.  This is well above the two-year, $16MM deal that MLBTR projected for Wacha’s next deal, though prices for starting pitchers have mostly skyrocketed this winter.

The Orioles, Twins, and Angels have all reportedly had interest in Wacha this offseason, though Minnesota’s trade for Pablo Lopez might have sealed up the last spot in the rotation.  For Baltimore, Wacha has been on the Orioles’ radar both before and after their signing of Kyle Gibson, a similar veteran arm meant to provide innings and experience within the young O’s rotation.  The Angels were the most recent of the three clubs to check in (in early February), and while Los Angeles has already signed Tyler Anderson to bolster the starter ranks, the Angels need a particular amount of depth given their likely deployment of a six-man rotation.

As with Profar, Wacha might fit into that “good but not great” category due to a lack of consistency.  After posting shaky results from 2019-21, Wacha seemingly got back on track by posting a 3.32 ERA over 127 1/3 innings with the Red Sox in 2022.  The righty did a good job of limiting hard contact and he continued his recent trend of limiting walks, but the rest of his Statcast sheet wasn’t overly impressive, including a 20.2% strikeout rate that was well below league average.  Wacha also spent about seven weeks on the injured list with shoulder inflammation, which is of particular concern given his past history of shoulder injuries.

Despite these drawbacks, Wacha’s market is boosted by the simple cliche of “you can never have enough pitching.”  Teams with seemingly full rotations might prefer to sign Wacha and push a younger arm further down the depth chart, or it is quite possible a new club might emerge as a suitor should a pitching injury arise during Spring Training.  That same logic also extends to Profar, as a team’s outfield plans might suddenly be altered if a lineup regular gets hurt.

Which of these free agents do you think will be the next to sign?

(poll link for app users)

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