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MLBTR Poll: Andrew Heaney’s Opt-Out

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The 2022-23 offseason saw several mid-tier free agents sign similar two-year contracts, each of which featured an opt-out after the 2023 campaign. Josh Bell and Michael Conforto’s deals with the Guardians and Giants are two examples on the position player side of things, but the majority of these deals were offered to starting pitchers, such as Sean Manaea and Ross Stripling in San Francisco. Left-hander Drew Smyly and right-hander Seth Lugo also signed similar deals with the Cubs and Padres, respectively, that allowed them to return to the open market this offseason if they so chose.

Many of those option decisions are fairly clear-cut, but one decision stands out as particularly intriguing: that of Rangers lefty Andrew Heaney, who can opt-out of the final year of his contract to test the open market again. Heaney signed in Texas last offseason on the heels of a brilliant season with the Dodgers where he was limited to just 72 2/3 innings by injury. When on the field, however, Heaney was nothing short of excellent with a 3.10 ERA, 35.5% strikeout rate, and 3.75 FIP in 16 appearances, including 14 starts.

While Heaney managed to stay healthy in 2023, his results took a turn for the worse. His strikeout rate plummeted to 23.6% while his walk rate climbed from 6.1% last year to 9.4% this season. Those slips in Heaney’s peripheral numbers saw him post a 4.15 ERA that was just above league average (95 ERA-) with a 4.66 FIP that was a touch worse than league average (106 FIP-). That being said, Heaney made 34 appearances in 2023 with 28 starts, a noteworthy display of durability for a player who had cracked 130 innings of work in a season just once in his career entering 2023.

Though Heaney managed to post the second-highest innings total of his career this year, his 147 1/3 innings pitched this season fell just shy of the 150 inning threshold at which point his 2024 salary would have escalated from $13MM to $20MM. Had Heaney reached the 150-inning threshold to escalate his option, opting in would have been an easy choice after he guaranteed himself just $25MM last offseason despite strong results with the Dodgers.

That base $13MM figure, however, presents a more interesting conundrum. Looking at last year’s free agent class, 35 starting pitchers signed big league deals in free agency last offseason. Among them, 21 signed for $13MM or more, including players coming off similarly league average seasons like Manaea, Lugo, Jordan Lyles and Noah Syndergaard. Like Lugo, Heaney would be entering free agency ahead of his age-33 season, while Syndergaard entered the open market with a similarly checkered injury history. Syndergaard received a one-year, $13MM deal from the Dodgers last offseason, while Lugo’s two-year pact guaranteed him $15MM.

Ultimately, it seems very reasonable to expect Heaney to be able to exceed his 2024 salary with the Rangers on the open market in terms of total guarantee on a multi-year pact, though it seems somewhat unlikely that he’d be able to garner that much in terms of AAV without accepting another short-term deal like the one he signed last offseason. If Heaney simply opts in, he could return to the Rangers and hope for another healthy season with stronger results in 2024, setting him up for a much more substantial payday next offseason. On the other hand, if Heaney’s health fails him again as it has in seasons’ past, he could find a much less robust market for his services next offseason as he could potentially be marketing his age-34 campaign coming off another injury-marred season.

Where do MLBTR readers land on the matter? If you were in Heaney’s shoes, would you opt in to the final year of the deal in Texas in hopes of a stronger platform season next year? Or would you return to the open market in search of a larger total guarantee? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Poll: What Team Will Craig Counsell Manage In 2024?

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With four teams looking for new managers at the moment, the Brewers are hoping they won’t be the fifth, as team owner Mark Attanasio has made clear his preference that Craig Counsell remains in the dugout.  The logic is obvious — Counsell has a 707-625 record in his nine seasons as Milwaukee’s manager, leading the Brewers to playoff appearances in five of the last six seasons.  Widely regarded as one of baseball’s better skippers, Counsell has been a key ingredient in the Brewers’ success, and thus a very intriguing candidate for other teams looking for a new leader.

Counsell’s contract is officially up on October 31, and though Attanasio approached the manager about a new deal earlier this year, Counsell’s preference was to wait until the season was over to delve into contract negotiations.  With another NL Central title on his resume, Counsell is in a pretty nice negotiating position to command a big raise from the Brewers, and continue both his run as manager and his longstanding ties to the organization.  In addition to his stint as manager, Counsell also grew up in Wisconsin, his father worked for the Brewers’ community relations division, and Counsell played six of  his 16 MLB seasons as a player in a Brewers uniform.

As per recent reports from Jon Heyman of the New York Post, “Counsell will stay if he’s paid what he believes is fair,” according to a source linked to the Brewers.  That said, it isn’t yet clear how far along (if at all) the two sides are in negotiations, even with the October 31 deadline getting closer.  It could be that Counsell is waiting until November to officially hit the open market and gauge his worth with some other offers….and one high-spending team in particular looms as a natural candidate for Counsell’s services.

Rumors swirled for years that the Mets were targeting David Stearns as the next president of their baseball operations department, and the pursuit finally ended in September when New York hired Stearns as the new PBO.  With Stearns seen as likely to eventually join the Mets, there was lots of speculation that Counsell might be looking to join his former Brewers boss in Queens, and that speculation only intensified when Stearns fired Buck Showalter in one of his first acts in charge of the front office.

There hasn’t been a ton of public buzz about the Mets’ managerial search, apart from the fact that the team is looking to hire a skipper from outside the organization.  Blue Jays first base coach Mark Budzinski and Rangers associate manager Will Venable have both been linked to the position, though Venable took him out of the running by declining an interview opportunity.  The relative lack of news about the Mets’ search could indicate that they’re waiting to get a chance to speak with Counsell, or it could simply mean that the team is keeping its cards close to the vest.  It is also possible that Stearns might be a little preoccupied with other business given the unexpected resignation of GM Billy Eppler, though the managerial search was expected to take priority over the efforts to find a new general manager (who would act as Stearns’ chief lieutenant).

If not Milwaukee or New York, we can’t rule out the other teams with managerial openings as possible landing spots for Counsell.  Hiring Counsell would give the Guardians an appropriately big name to help fill the void left by Terry Francona, and the Guards have a Brewers-esque approach in trying to perpetually contend despite a limited payroll.  The Giants have a lot more spending capacity and seem to be looking for something of a culture change, so hiring Counsell could certainly provide such a spark to the organization.  The Angels could be going through something of a transition phase if Shohei Ohtani leaves, though there’s obvious appeal in managing Ohtani (if he re-signs) and Mike Trout, and Counsell could welcome the challenge of ending the Halos’ playoff drought.  Beyond these teams, we might also consider other teams who could be more open to a managerial change if Counsell enters the market, with the Padres perhaps still a club to watch in this regard.

With all of this in mind, where do you think Counsell will be managing next season?

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Chad Green’s Contract Options

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Last winter, right-handed reliever Chad Green signed one of the more convoluted free agent contracts in recent memory. The deal looked simple on the surface – an $8.5MM guarantee over two years – but it came with several options that could pay him as much as $32.25MM through 2026. Green earned $2.25MM during the 2023 campaign, while he spent most of the year on the injured list rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. The Blue Jays always knew he’d miss the first several months of the season, hence his relatively low salary. This upcoming offseason, however, is when things get complicated.

Toronto has a club option for three more years and $27MM (plus up to $1MM in incentives each season). If the Blue Jays do not exercise their first option, Green will have the chance to accept an option of his own, a one-year player option worth $6.25MM (with as much as $2MM in additional incentives). Then, if Green also declines his option, the Blue Jays have a second, less expensive team option for two years and $21MM (again with up to $1MM in incentives each year). Finally, if both sides decline every option, Green will become an unrestricted free agent.

Given how little Green pitched in 2023, it’s hard to imagine the Blue Jays would pick him up for $9MM a year through his age-35 campaign. Then again, the veteran reliever returned from Tommy John on a perfectly normal timeline and looked healthy in September. In other words, he gave the Blue Jays everything they could have expected in 2023, and the team wouldn’t have signed this deal in the first place if they weren’t going to consider the option.

While Green gave up ten runs (seven earned) in only 12 innings of work this season, his underlying numbers were much more impressive. He struck out 16 of the 52 batters he faced and only issued three unintentional walks. His 3.11 SIERA and 2.84 xERA are also promising signs. What’s more, Green was a dominant and durable reliever for several years before he tore his UCL. From 2016-22, he posted a 2.79 ERA and 2.93 FIP in 326 innings of relief. Since his debut season, he ranks 11th among all relievers in FanGraphs WAR. If he returns to form in 2024, a three-year, $27MM deal would seem more than fair. A few comparable relievers signed for more than $30MM last winter, including Kenley Jansen (two years, $32MM) and Taylor Rogers (three years, $33MM).

For those precise reasons, Green is unlikely to accept his $6.25MM player option. If he does hit free agency, all his suitors will have the knowledge that Toronto turned down his services at both three years/$27MM and two years/$21MM. That being said, the market for right-handed relievers isn’t particularly deep, nor is it replete with high-end talent. He’s younger than other guys with a long track record, like Craig Kimbrel and David Robertson, and he’s more experienced out of the bullpen than other high-upside arms, like Jordan Hicks and Reynaldo López. Even if he struggles to find a multi-year offer, Green should be able to beat $6.25MM on a one-year pact. However, if he is worried about his health, it’s possible he could opt for another year of job security with the Blue Jays. Yet, considering his performance in September and October, that doesn’t seem to be a likely concern.

Toronto’s two-year, $21MM club option looks the most likely to be exercised, but at the same time, if the club has enough concerns to turn down the three-year option, perhaps they’re ready to move on from Green entirely. On top of that, while the two-year option is less expensive overall, it comes with a higher annual salary. The Blue Jays ran a payroll relatively close to the first luxury tax threshold in 2023, and they already have several payroll commitments for next season. If they’re looking to make some upgrades this winter without paying the tax, they might actually prefer the longer option with a lower AAV.

So, what do the MLBTR readers think? Will either side pick up an option, or will Green return to the open market? Have your say in the poll below!

(poll link for app users)

Poll: Should The Twins Trade Jorge Polanco?

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Jorge Polanco is now at the end of the guaranteed part of his contract. The switch-hitting infielder signed a five-year, $25.75MM extension going into the 2019 campaign, with a pair of club options for 2024 and 2025. The first one is valued at $10.5MM with a $1MM buyout, making it a net $9.5MM decision, followed by a $12.5MM option for ’25 with a buyout of $750K.

Polanco, 30, has been consistently productive over the course of the deal, apart from a dip in the shortened 2020 season. He hit 22 home runs in 2019, producing a batting line of .295/.356/.485 and a wRC+ of 120. After his aforementioned struggles in 2020, he bounced back with a 33-homer campaign in 2021, slashing .269/.323/.503 for a 124 wRC+.

The injury bug has bit him a couple of times in the past two seasons, limiting him to just 184 games over 2022 and 2023, but he’s still been productive when on the field. He’s hit 30 home runs in that time and walked in 12.7% of his plate appearances, leading to a line of .244/.341/.427 and 119 wRC+.

Defensively, Polanco has been gradually moved off shortstop over the course of the deal but is still playable at second. Outs Above Average gave him a grade of -5 at the keystone in 2023 but Defensive Runs Saved had him at +2.

Picking up the option in an easy decision. $9.5MM for a switch-hitting middle infielder with 30-homer potential is a bargain. However, there are some other factors that may lead the Twins to consider a trade. One factor is the weak free agent class, which is light on impact bats, especially in the middle infield. The shortstop class doesn’t really have a viable everyday option, while the group of second basemen is headlined by Amed Rosario, Whit Merrifield and Adam Frazier. Most teams would likely prefer Polanco at his option price over what those free agents will get on the open market.

There’s also the internal roster situation. Polanco’s not really a viable shortstop anymore, but Carlos Correa has that position locked down anyway. At third base, Royce Lewis is finally healthy and showing his potential. He wasn’t able to play much from 2020 to 2022 thanks to the pandemic and then twice tearing his right ACL, but he was back on the field for the second half of 2023. He got into 58 games and mashed 15 home runs for a batting line of .309/.372/.548 and 155 wRC+, then hit another four home runs in the playoffs. Though he came up as a shortstop, he played a lot of third base next to Correa and seems likely to have that position going forward.

At second base, Edouard Julien got significant playing time this year and there was plenty to like about his performance. Though he struck out in 31.4% of his trips to the plate, he also walked at a stout 15.7% clip and hit 16 home runs in his 109 games. His .263/.381/.459 line translated to a 136 wRC+. His defense has been considered subpar and his -3 DRS at second this year supports that, but OAA had him at an even zero. There’s also Kyle Farmer in the mix with the opposite profile, a strong defender with a subpar bat. He hit .253/.314/.405 this year for a 99 wRC+ while adding quality defense at all four infield positions. His projected arbitration salary of $6.6MM for next year might feel high for a bench/utility player, but he’s produced at least 1.5 fWAR for three straight seasons now.

Julien’s defense arguably makes him a candidate to move over to first base, but the Twins also have an option there. Alex Kirilloff hit .270/.348/.445 in 2023 for a 120 wRC+, an encouraging development after poor results in previous seasons caused by wrist issues. He’s set to undergo shoulder surgery this month, but it’s on his non-throwing arm.

The designated hitter spot could help the Twins find at-bats for all these guys, but then there’s the looming Byron Buxton question. The center fielder was kept exclusively in the designated hitter spot in 2023 due to his ongoing knee issues. It’s hoped he’ll be healthier next year after undergoing an arthroscopic procedure on his knee last week, but the club will likely have to plan on keeping the DH spot free for him until he proves he doesn’t need it.

Another factor is that the Twins may want to get some more starting pitching. Each of Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Dallas Keuchel are heading into free agency, subtracting three options from the rotation. They will still have Pablo López, Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan, but some question marks beyond that. Chris Paddack will be in the mix but has only thrown 27 1/3 innings in the past two years combined due to Tommy John surgery. Louie Varland could be another factor but he’s relatively unproven, with just 94 big league innings to his name thus far.

The Twins could turn to the free agent market to help replace those starters, or departing reliever Emilio Pagán, but there’s some uncertainty in terms of the budget. The club is still trying to sort out its broadcasting situation in the wake of the Diamond Sports Group/Bally Sports bankruptcy. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey recently admitted that this could have an impact on the club’s payroll next year.

Injuries are inevitable as the Twins well know, having dealt with their share over the years. Perhaps they will opt to simply hold onto Polanco with the knowledge that they will eventually need depth and that space will be made for all their infielders. But if they did make Polanco available, he would surely garner plenty of interest given the weak free agent market. This provides the club with an avenue to address other parts of the roster while perhaps saving money instead of spending it.

What do the MLBTR readers think? Should the Twins hang onto Polanco or put him on the trading block? Have your say in the poll below!

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Reviewing The 2022-23 Free Agent Shortstop Class

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Last offseason’s free agent class, while headlined by Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, is perhaps most notable for the quartet of free agent shortstops that stood near the top of the class: Trea Turner, who signed with the Phillies; Xander Bogaerts, who landed in San Diego; Carlos Correa, who returned to the Twins after physical issues scuttled deals in both San Francisco and Queens; and Dansby Swanson, who joined the Cubs. With the 2023 season all but complete and free agency nearly upon us once again, let’s take a look at the four shortstops, their performance in 2023, and their remaining contracts:

Trea Turner (Phillies)

Contract: 10 years, $272.72MM remaining covering age 31-40 seasons

Turner’s first season in Philadelphia was a difficult one for much of the year. After riding a hot stretch through the first week of the season, the next two months were nothing short of brutal as Turner slashed just .210/.259/.341 over his next 51 games. At that point in the season, the Phillies were the fourth-place team in the NL East with a disappointing 27-32 record. Of course, the team would turn things around from there, ultimately winning 90 games en route to a second consecutive NLCS appearance. As the Phillies improved, Turner followed suit, slashing a far stronger .288/.347/.517 the rest of the way. Those solid numbers are primarily thanks to Turner’s fantastic performance down the stretch this season; he slashed an incredible .317/.371/.629 in August and September. Turner’s success has continued into the postseason, as he’s slashed a whopping .500/.538/.917 during the Phillies’ postseason run to this point.

Taken together, Turner’s weak start to the season saw him post his worst campaign since 2018 as he slashed .266/.320/.459 with a 108 wRC+ while posting weak defensive metrics (-5 Outs Above Average, -12 Defensive Runs Saved). That being said, he still provided considerable value on the basepaths, going a perfect 30-for-30 in stolen base attempts, and his strong finish to the season could indicate that Turner can regain his offensive form of the previous three seasons (139 wRC+ 2020-2022). Turner’s 3.8 fWAR this season was the ninth-best mark among qualified shortstops in 2023.

Xander Bogaerts (Padres)

Contract: 10 years, $254.55MM remaining covering age 31-40 seasons

Like Turner, Bogaerts had an up-and-down start to his 2023 campaign. His first month in San Diego hardly could’ve gone better, as Bogaerts slashed .308/.400/.514 through the end of April, but a nagging wrist issue saw his production plummet in May, when he slashed just .200/.283/.263 in 25 games. From there, Bogaerts saw his production even out, as he slashed .300/.353/.462 from June 1 onward, allowing him to finish the season with stats largely in line with his consistent career numbers, even as the 82-80 Padres fell short of expectations. In 665 trips to the plate this season, Bogaerts slashed .285/.350/.440 with a wRC+ of 120. That performance is good for his sixth-consecutive season with a 120 wRC+ or better, and his eighth-consecutive full season with more than 3.0 fWAR. Defensive metrics were mixed on Bogaerts this season, as he posted a -4 DRS but a +3 OAA. Bogaerts’s 4.4 fWAR this season was the seventh-best mark among qualified shortstops in 2023.

Carlos Correa (Twins)

Contract: Five years, $166.67MM remaining covering age 29-33 seasons; four vesting options could take total to nine years, $236.67 remaining covering age 29-37 seasons

After failing physicals with both the Giants and the Mets this past offseason before returning to Minnesota, Correa saw his health remain a focal point throughout the 2023 campaign. Though he avoided the injured list for much of the year, both his offense and defense suffered as he battled plantar fasciitis for most of the season. Typically an above-average offensive threat and strong defender at shortstop, Correa posted the worst season of his career this year as he slashed just .230/.312/.399 (96 wRC+) while posting middling defensive metrics (+1 OAA, -2 DRS). That being said, after going on the injured list for the final weeks of the regular season, Correa impressed in the playoffs with a .409/.458/.545 slash line in six games as the Twins won their first postseason series since 2002. The injury marred campaign makes Correa difficult to project going forward, though as the youngest of the four top shortstops from last offseason’s class, he has youth on his side. Correa’s 1.1 fWAR this season was 17th among the 21 qualified shortstops in 2023.

Dansby Swanson (Cubs)

Contract: Six years, $163MM remaining covering age 30-35 seasons

Swanson’s first year in Chicago was a difficult one to predict, as the 29-year-old was coming off a career year in 2022 where he slashed a career-best .277/.329/.447 while posting elite defensive metrics. Ultimately, the bat fell back to Earth a bit in 2023 as Swanson slashed a solid but unexceptional .244/.328/.416 that was good for roughly league average (104 wRC+), while oscillating between considerable hot streaks (including a midsummer stretch where Swanson slugged .618 with nine home runs in 99 plate appearances) and equally significant cold stretches (including a .161/.254/.304 slash line in his final 14 games of the season). One thing that remained consistent throughout Swanson’s season, however, was his stellar defense. Swanson was the best defensive shortstop in baseball this year according to both DRS (+18) and OAA (+20), allowing him to post a strong 4.9 fWAR that was outstripped by only Corey Seager, Francisco Lindor, and Bobby Witt among qualified shortstops in 2023.

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So, one year in, which contract is looking the best to MLBTR readers? Turner remains an exciting talent on the basepaths and finished the season strong, but defensive miscues and his cold start to the season could be early signs of declining production. Bogaerts remained consistent as ever in all facets of the game, pairing solid offense with average defense, while Correa’s superstar potential took a backseat in an injury-marred season. Meanwhile, Swanson flashed incredible defense but was essentially league average on offense, as is consistent with his profile in recent years. Which player would you most like to have on your team in 2024 and beyond? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Tim Anderson’s Club Option

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The 2023 was a brutal one for the White Sox, who entered the year with postseason aspirations but found themselves as one of the league’s biggest sellers come the trade deadline. The club ultimately lost 101 games in 2023, their second 100-loss campaign in six years. While the club is facing a host of problems, from a pitching staff stripped to the bone by midseason trades to reported clubhouse culture issues, perhaps the biggest reason for concern about the club’s fortunes going forward is the fall from grace of franchise shortstop Tim Anderson.

Since breaking out during the 2019 season, Anderson has been a face of the franchise on the south side of Chicago. From 2019-2021, the young shortstop slashed an excellent .322/.349/.495 (126 wRC+) in 295 games while approaching a 20/20 campaign in both full seasons of that stretch. He led all qualified hitters in batting average during that stretch while playing a solid shortstop, and was a key piece of what looked to be a sustainable White Sox core for the future.

Unfortunately, things started to come off the rails for both Chicago and Anderson himself in 2022. Anderson’s offense regressed somewhat as he slashed .301/.339/.395 (110 wRC+). While he posted a career-best strikeout rate of just 15.7%, that improved contact did not make up for Anderson’s power outage, as he posted a career-low .093 ISO, the 18th-lowest figure of all players with as many plate appearances as him that season. To make matters worse, Anderson was limited to just 79 games by two separate IL stints for groin and finger injuries. While Anderson struggled to stay on the field, the White Sox faltered in his absence, going just 81-81 and missing the playoffs for the first time since 2019.

After a downturn in performance for both club and player, both sides hoped for better days in 2023, but those days did not arrive. Amid the club’s worst season since their 106-loss campaign in 1970, Anderson had far and away the worst season of his career. The 30-year-old slashed a paltry .245/.286/.296 in 524 trips to the plate, a figure that’s 40% worse than league average by measure of wRC+. His wRC+, ISO, wOBA, and slugging percentage were all the worst in the majors among all qualified hitters, and his on-base percentage also ranked in the bottom five.

Anderson’s brutal season has caused plenty of speculation regarding his future in the White Sox organization. The club holds a $14MM club option on his services for the 2024 season with a $1MM buyout. While the $13MM decision once appeared to be a no-brainer for one of the league’s better regulars at a premium position, the future now appears anything but certain for Anderson and Chicago. New GM Chris Getz recently spoke about the upcoming decision on Anderson, indicating that the decision “deserves an exhaustive discussion” considering Anderson’s importance to the organization in recent years, though he offered no assurance that Anderson would return to the South Side next year.

Further complicating matters is the lack of quality shortstop options on the open market this season. If the club wishes to move on from Anderson, they’ll be hard-pressed to find a clear upgrade in free agency with Amed Rosario and Gio Urshela headlining the upcoming class. Of course, top prospect Colson Montgomery is figures to be the club’s shortstop of the future following a big season that saw him advance to Double-A late in the year. While Montgomery is certainly on the radar for a big league debut as soon as next year, it seems unlikely Chicago would be content to use him as the Opening Day shortstop next year after just 37 games at the Double-A level. Retaining Anderson certainly wouldn’t block Montgomery, as Anderson himself has expressed a willingness to move to second base going forward.

Ultimately, the upcoming option decision leaves the White Sox forced to choose between risking overpaying Anderson for another abysmal year of production in 2024 or risking him returning to form elsewhere when he could’ve been retained on a relative bargain compared to his typical production. How do MLBTR readers feel the White Sox should approach the upcoming decision on Anderson’s option? Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

Poll: Who Will Win The League Championship Series?

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Two first-time postseason meetings will take place during the League Championship Series, with these fresh matchups underlining the upset-filled nature of the 2023 playoffs.  We could also be heading towards an entirely fresh World Series matchup as well, or potentially a rematch of last year’s Fall Classic.  The ALCS begins Sunday in Houston, with the NLCS getting underway on Monday in Philadelphia.

Rangers vs. Astros

Amidst all of the postseason’s unpredictability, the Astros remain the constant.  Houston is in the ALCS for the seventh consecutive year, with two World Series titles (2017 and last season) and two other AL pennants to show for this incredible run of success.  The Astros know what to do in October, and their ALDS victory over the Twins also saw a player without a championship ring suddenly step up, as Jose Abreu hit three homers over the four-game series.  The regular season was a disappointment for Abreu, but if he has suddenly locked in and found his old White Sox form, Houston’s lineup will look even more imposing.

Then again, the Rangers can roll out an awfully imposing group of hitters themselves.  Texas is a perfect 5-0 over its series triumphs over the Rays and Orioles, in part because Corey Seager and the rookie duo of Evan Carter and Josh Jung have been almost impossible to get out.  The Texas rotation and bullpen will inevitably have question marks, yet their arms have gotten the job done thus far, with a 2.25 ERA over 45 postseason innings.  Plus, the pitching staff might get even stronger with the expected return of Max Scherzer in some capacity for the ALCS.

There is already a fierce rivalry between these two Lone Star State rivals, as the Rangers’ return to prominence will now face a critical test against the benchmark that is the Astros.  Though the Rangers led the AL West for most of the season, the Astros slipped ahead to clinch the division on a tiebreaker — both clubs finished with a 90-72 record, but Houston held a comfortably 9-4 advantage in head-to-head play.

Justin Verlander has been announced as Houston’s starter for Game 1, and Jordan Montgomery will take the ball for Texas.  Both pitchers were acquired at the trade deadline, though naturally Verlander already has a long history in an Astros uniform.

(poll link)

Diamondbacks vs. Phillies

The first season of the expanded playoffs saw the Phillies go from sixth seed to NL champions in 2022, and now a year later, the Phils find themselves as the favorites trying to hold off another sixth-seeded upstart.  Like the Rangers, the Diamondbacks have yet to drop even a single game in these playoffs, after sweeping away the Brewers and the Dodgers over the first two rounds.  The Phillies (1.53, .892 OPS) and D’Backs (2.20, .877) lead all postseason teams in ERA and OPS, showing the well-rounded nature of both clubs’ performances thus far.

Star youngsters Corbin Carroll and Gabriel Moreno have led the way for Arizona, and the rotation depth that plagued the D’Backs during the regular season hasn’t been an issue in the short-series environment of the postseason.  Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are a formidable pair of frontline arms, and rookie Brandon Pfaadt looked sharp in 4 1/3 shutout innings against Los Angeles in Game 3 of the NLDS.  Arizona also has an unusual bit of superstition on its side, in that every team to ever eliminate the Brewers from a postseason series has also won at least a league pennant.

While the underdog Diamondbacks have shown no fear during these playoffs, they’ll be facing a tough assignment in facing a tested Phillies team that has both a raucous home crowd and the home-field advantage.  Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, Bryce Harper, and J.T. Realmuto have been a four-man wrecking crew during the playoffs, combining for nine homers and 19 RBI over Philadelphia’s six games.  If there is one downside, it is that the rest of the Phillies’ lineup has been mostly quiet, though there is still plenty of talent that could emerge in a new series.

Arizona will start Gallen, Kelly, and Pfaadt over the first three NLDS games.  A well-rested Zack Wheeler is expected to start Game 1 for Philadelphia, with Aaron Nola and Ranger Suarez probably lining up for the next two starts.

(poll link)

MLBTR Poll: San Diego’s Juan Soto Decision

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Just over fourteen months ago, the Padres shook the baseball world at the 2022 trade deadline by dealing a package of prospects and young players to the Nationals in exchange for superstar outfielder Juan Soto (alongside first baseman Josh Bell). The addition of Soto gave San Diego a young, elite talent to replace Fernando Tatis Jr. for the remainder of the season as the club sought its first full-season postseason berth since 2006 before pairing the two up in the outfield in 2023 and beyond.

Soto fulfilled his end of the bargain, posting a 131 wRC+ in 228 trips to the plate down the stretch for the Padres before slashing .222/.333/.611 in the NLCS as the club fell to the Phillies in five games last year. He went on to post what has become a typical season by his standards in 2023: the 24-year-old phenom slashed a strong .275/.410/.519 (155 wRC+) while clubbing 35 home runs, recording more walks than strikeouts and playing in all 162 games for the Padres en route to his third consecutive All Star appearance. Unfortunately, the rest of the club was unable to keep up with him this season, as the Padres finished with an 82-80 record, spending most of the season under .500 and never leading the NL West despite lofty preseason expectations.

The club’s brutal 2023 campaign seems to be spurring changes for the club going forward, as reports have indicated the club is planning to cut payroll from this year’s $255MM figure to around $200MM this offseason. Such a steep cut in payroll, of course, has caused speculation about how the Padres could hope to improve a roster that figures to lose Josh Hader and Blake Snell to free agency this winter. With MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projecting Soto to make a whopping $33MM in his final year of arbitration eligibility, it’s easy to see why many around the baseball world expect the club to entertain offers on the superstar this offseason.

After all, saving over $30MM on Soto’s salary could allow the club to supplement other areas of need on the roster within their newfound payroll constraints, to say nothing of the possibility that the Soto return could include big league ready pieces who could help supplement the 2024 roster themselves. As talented as Soto is, it’s at least conceivable that the club could improve for the future while minimizing the hit to their overall competitiveness next season if they make savvy additions to counterbalance the hypothetical loss of their star slugger.

The other side of that argument is simple: a Soto trade would almost assuredly downgrade the 2024 team. Even as the Padres stand to lose Snell and Hader in free agency, the club has several aging players on long-term deals. Players like Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Joe Musgrove, and especially Yu Darvish aren’t getting any younger, and there’s an argument to be made that sacrificing the present for the future to any degree is a mistake given the club’s aging core of expensive stars even as San Diego sports the sport’s 11th best farm system, per Fangraphs.

It’s also worth noting how the Padres lost in 2023. While their 82-80 record certainly left something to be desired, they posted the eighth-best run differential in baseball and the third-best figure in the National League behind only 100-win juggernauts in Atlanta and LA. The club’s Pythagorean record in 2023 was a far more palatable 92-70, with a similar 91-71 expected record according to BaseRuns. Championships aren’t won through projected standings, of course, but when looking ahead to 2024 it’s certainly fair to wonder if a very similar Padres team could achieve much better results with more fortune in extra innings (2-12) and one-run games (10-28). Holding onto Soto wouldn’t even necessarily preclude the club from dealing him later, as the Padres could always trade him at the 2024 deadline if they fall out of contention early in the year.

All that said, the dream scenario for Padres fans involves neither the club trading Soto nor him walking in free agency next offseason. Ideally, San Diego would surely prefer to extend their superstar and keep him in the outfield alongside Tatis for the next decade or longer. That may be easier said than done, of course, as Soto infamously rejected a $440MM extension offer from the Nationals prior to his trade to San Diego. The sort of megadeal that would be required to retain Soto figures to be hard to stomach for most clubs, but perhaps especially one like the Padres that, in addition to their desire to cut payroll this offseason, already has over $100MM on the books every year for the rest of the decade.

Unlikely as an extension may seem on paper, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has proven time and time again that his front office shouldn’t be counted out regarding major trades, free agent signings, and especially extensions if an opportunity to improve the club arises. Preller figures to weigh all these factors and more when deciding an approach regarding Soto this offseason. In his end-of-season press conference, Preller indicated that he plans to discuss a possible extension with Soto during the offseason but nonetheless did not rule out a trade of the young superstar this winter, leaving the door open for San Diego to take a variety of approaches over the next few months.

What path do MLBTR readers think Preller and the Padres should take regarding Soto this offseason? They could make every effort to extend him while looking to cut payroll elsewhere, trade him for pieces that could help extend the club’s current window of contention, or simply stick with him through his final year of arbitration and re-evaluate things at the trade deadline next summer. Have your say in the poll below.

(poll link for app users)

MLBTR Poll: Division Series Winners

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All four Division Series get going tomorrow. The Wild Card series were mostly uncompetitive, with all four ending in a two-game sweep. We’re now on to best-of-five sets that can run through next Friday.

Rangers vs. Orioles

The second round begins in the afternoon when the Rangers head to Baltimore. Texas used Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi to dispatch the Rays, so they’ll go with left-hander Andrew Heaney in Game 1. He’ll be opposed by Baltimore’s breakout staff ace, righty Kyle Bradish.

Texas won 90 games behind a star-studded lineup. Anchored by Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Adolis García, Mitch Garver and Jonah Heim, the Rangers finished third in the majors in runs. The pitching staff is more questionable, especially with Max Scherzer’s availability for the postseason still uncertain. Montgomery and Eovaldi make for a strong top two, but the bullpen has been a concern all season.

Baltimore lost its elite closer Félix Bautista to Tommy John surgery on the eve of the postseason. All-Star Yennier Cano steps into the ninth inning. The O’s sprinted to 101 wins this year, holding off the Rays to lock down an AL East title and the league’s top seed. Adley Rutschman, Rookie of the Year favorite Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander and Cedric Mullins headline a lineup that ranked seventh in run scoring. Bradish and rookie Grayson Rodriguez lead the rotation. It’s the first playoff appearance for most of a young but ultra-talented Baltimore group.

(poll link)

 

Twins vs. Astros

The second ALDS sends the AL Central winning Twins to Houston. Minnesota used Pablo López and Sonny Gray in their opening set. They’ll go with Bailey Ober in Game 1 opposite Justin Verlander.

Minnesota held the Blue Jays to one run in their opening series. They’ve had arguably the sport’s best starting rotation, ranking fourth in innings and trailing only the Padres in ERA. Their bullpen isn’t quite as deep, although flamethrowing Jhoan Duran is tough to handle in the ninth inning. While the lineup is built a little more on strong depth than star talent at the top, former first overall pick Royce Lewis raked at a .309/.372/.548 clip in 58 regular season games before launching homers in each of his first two career playoff at-bats against Toronto.

The Astros never quite clicked the way they had during their 106-win regular season last year. Yet even without ever fully running on all cylinders, the defending World Series champions won 90 games and swept Arizona in the final weekend to grab another AL West title. They’ll comfortably turn the ball to Verlander and Framber Valdez for the first two games to support a lineup with Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, and Jose Altuve firing on all cylinders and backed by Chas McCormick, Alex Bregman and rookie catcher/DH Yainer Diaz.

(poll link)

 

Phillies vs. Braves

Arguably the most compelling of the Division Series pits the defending NL pennant winners against the best regular season team of 2023. Philadelphia began what they hope to be a second straight run from Wild Card to the Fall Classic by breezing past the Marlins in Round One. They needed Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola to do so, so southpaw Ranger Suárez starts tomorrow. Atlanta counters with strikeout king Spencer Strider.

The Phils lean heavily on their excellent top three starters and a star-studded lineup. Bryce Harper has been characteristically stellar, while Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner have gotten rolling following slow starts to the season. While the bullpen has been a concern for Philadelphia in prior Octobers, it has held up very well this year. Even though they never threatened Atlanta for a run at the top of the division, the Phils look like one of the most complete teams remaining.

Their pitching staff needs to be up for a challenge. The Braves counter with the best lineup in baseball, a group that runs nine deep and handily outslugged the rest of the league. Atlanta was the only team to reach the 250-homer plateau this year. They hit 307. Matt Olson led the league with 54 longballs and 139 RBI, Ronald Acuña Jr. went 40-70, and everyone else in the starting lineup hit at least 17 homers. To the extent there’s a concern with this team, it’s the rotation beyond Strider. Max Fried battled a blister at the end of the regular season, leaving a little uncertainty headed into his Game 2 start, while Charlie Morton will miss the series due to finger inflammation.

(poll link)

 

D-Backs vs. Dodgers

The Diamondbacks were the NL’s final playoff qualifier. Arizona knocked off Milwaukee in round one, with the sweep keeping them using #2 starter Merrill Kelly (who’d pitched in the regular season’s final weekend and was lined up for a potential Game 3). Instead, Kelly gets the nod tomorrow against Clayton Kershaw.

With NL Rookie of the Year lock Corbin Carroll leading off, Arizona has gotten strong work from Ketel Marte and underrated slugger Christian Walker. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. carries a hot streak into the postseason, while young catcher Gabriel Moreno had a great second half. Moreno left Game 2 against Milwaukee after being hit on the head with a backswing, but he’s expected to be full-go for this series (via Alden González of ESPN). The one-two of Kelly and Zac Gallen and a bullpen anchored by Paul Sewald and Kevin Ginkel gives the pitching staff strong talent at the top. The question is the depth — both at the bottom of the lineup and the back half of the starting rotation.

The Dodgers are legitimate World Series contenders yet again. They won 100 games for the fourth consecutive full season. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are going to finish in the top five in MVP balloting. J.D. Martinez is having his best season in a few years, while Max Muncy and rookie James Outman are significant power threats. The Dodgers have an elite collection of late-game arms, leading the majors with a 2.26 relief ERA in the second half behind Evan Phillips and Brusdar Graterol. It’s a relatively weak rotation for L.A., however. Kershaw’s velocity has been down as he pitches through shoulder discomfort, perhaps leaving rookie Bobby Miller as their most reliable starter. Dave Roberts figures to get to the bullpen early and often.

(poll link)

 

Poll: Who’s Going To Win The World Series?

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Both the playoff field and the first-round matchups now have been set, so we can get on with deciding who’s going to be holding the Commissioner’s Trophy by the end of the World Series.  After 162 games (well, give or take a Marlins/Mets game that will now be scrapped entirely), the list of contenders has been narrowed to a dozen teams.

The Braves led all of baseball with 104 wins, and their spectacular lineup tied a Major League record with 307 home runs.  Leading the league almost across the board in significant offensive categories this season, Atlanta boasts MVP favorite Ronald Acuna Jr. as their top player, yet the incredible depth of the everyday lineup is a nightmare for opposing pitchers.  Injuries to Max Fried and Charlie Morton have left some questions about the readiness of the staff heading into the playoffs, but if Atlanta’s games start turning into slugfests, the Braves are more than well-equipped for that type of baseball.

Despite a huge swath of injuries to their pitching staff, the Dodgers still finished 100-62 and won the NL West.  It was the fifth time in the last six 162-game seasons that L.A. hit the 100-win threshold, and the Dodgers have now won 10 of the last 11 division titles.  All of that success, of course, has netted “only” one World Series title (in 2020) to date, and it will be up to Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman to keep carrying the offense while the somewhat makeshift pitching staff will try to produce quality innings.

The Orioles went from 110 losses in 2021 to 101 wins this season, winning the AL East for the first time since 2014.  Baltimore’s extensive rebuild led to a new wave of young talent (i.e. Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez) providing a quick impact, while roster holdovers and unexpected hidden gems like Ryan O’Hearn all kept producing for a well-rounded team.  The rotation is either a question mark or perhaps just underrated heading into October, and the O’s want to leave no doubt that their team is for real.

The Astros went into the final series of the season not even knowing if they’d be in the playoffs at all, yet Houston ended up with a first-round bye and their sixth AL West crown in seven seasons.  The defending World Series champs have weathered a lot of pitching injuries and a bit more inconsistency than usual from their lineup, yet if any team knows how to turn up the volume in the postseason, it’s the Astros.

These four teams will get first-round byes, while the other two division champions and the six wild-card teams will have to survive the best-of-three first round.  The AL Central champion Twins and the sixth-seeded Blue Jays will meet in the postseason for the first time since 1991, with Toronto trying to win its first playoff game since 2016 and Minnesota trying to end an unfathomable 0-18 record in playoff games dating back to 2004.  Both the Twins and Jays have relied on recipes of strong starting pitching, solid bullpen work and (especially in Toronto’s case) excellent defense, while the offense has been much more hit-and-miss for each club.  A low-scoring series wouldn’t be a surprise, making things a tossup even though the Twins have the home-field advantage.

The Rays and Rangers spent a good chunk of the season looking like they’d sail to division titles, yet the two clubs will now meet in the Wild Card Series.  Tampa Bay’s ever-deep farm system just kept churning out MLB-ready talent, allowing the Rays to stay steady and win 99 games despite an injury-depleted pitching staff.  Texas had greater issues managing pitching injuries and a very leaky bullpen, and though the Rangers still ended up with 90 wins and a playoff berth, the Rangers’ relief corps stands out as perhaps the biggest weak link of any postseason team.

The Brewers went 92-70 to book their fifth trip to the playoffs in six seasons, with three of those trips coming via the NL Central title.  With a 35-20 record since August 1, Milwaukee has been somewhat quietly marching towards the playoffs in top form, even if scoring runs is still at something of a premium for a team powered by its hurlers.  The Diamondbacks have just about the opposite problem, as they’ll head into the playoffs with a -15 run differential and a season-long problem with rotation depth.  But, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly can be a problem in a short series, and NL Rookie of the Year favorite Corbin Carroll will get his first taste of the postseason spotlight.

The Phillies and Marlins meet in an all-NL East edition of the Wild Card Series, with Miami holding a 7-6 head-to-head edge in regular-season play.  After falling short in last year’s World Series, the Phillies are looking to make another run through the entire bracket, setting up the dynamic of a seasoned, veteran squad against an upstart Marlins club who are in the playoffs following a full 162-game season for the first time since 2003.  A huge 33-13 record in one-run games helped Miami reach the postseason despite a -56 run differential — by contrast, Philadelphia was +81.

Looking at the list of twelve, who is your pick to win it all? (poll link for app users)

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