MLBTR Polls

Will The Mets Trade Pete Alonso?

By Anthony Franco | June 6, 2024 at 11:59pm CDT

The Mets head to London for a World Tour series against the Phillies this weekend. Even after sweeping the Nationals, New York owns a 27-35 record that has them above just the Rockies and Marlins in the National League. They’re remarkably only 3.5 games out of the Wild Card race, a testament to the NL’s mediocrity beyond its top four teams. There are six clubs between the Mets and the current final playoff team, the Padres.

If the Mets don’t make significant improvements in the next six-plus weeks, they’ll head into deadline season as a seller. Impending free agents are always the most apparent trade candidates. The Mets have no shortage of rentals they can market. Sean Manaea (who has a $13.5MM player option for next season), J.D. Martinez, Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, Adam Ottavino, Jose Quintana and Jake Diekman could all move. Yet there’s no more interesting Mets’ trade candidate than their first baseman.

Pete Alonso is a few months from his first trip to the open market. He reportedly declined a $158MM extension offer last summer. President of baseball operations David Stearns made clear throughout the offseason that while the Mets had no interest in trading Alonso over the winter, they didn’t anticipate reopening extension negotiations before he hit free agency.

That should spur plenty of trade speculation as the deadline approaches. That’s evidently already happening in front offices outside of Queens. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote this week that multiple rival general managers expect the Mets to trade Alonso before the deadline. That seems more like informed speculation than a suggestion that his name has come up in trade talks to this point.

Will talks gain legitimate traction in the coming weeks? There’s a straightforward argument for the Mets to move Alonso. They evidently don’t plan on keeping him from testing the free agent market. Alonso will begin his next contract in his age-30 season. When Stearns was running baseball operations in Milwaukee, the Brewers preferred not to invest heavily in defensively-limited sluggers. He obviously has far more resources at his disposal now, but it’s fair to wonder whether Alonso is the type of player around whom Stearns wants to build.

That’s particularly true with a slight downturn in Alonso’s batted ball metrics. He’s still capable of hitting the ball as hard anyone, but he has done so less frequently over the past couple seasons. The Polar Bear’s rate of hard contact (a batted ball with an exit velocity north of 95 MPH) peaked at 47.3% back in 2021. It dropped by a few points in each of the next two seasons. This year’s 40.1% hard contact rate is a match for last season’s. It places Alonso 129th out of 263 qualified hitters.

The dip in hard contact rate hasn’t made Alonso a bad hitter, of course. He’s hitting .238/.315/.477 with 14 homers across 267 plate appearances. After accounting for the pitcher-friendly nature of Citi Field and a depressed league run environment, that’s 27 percentage points better than average. Alonso remains a middle-of-the-order bat, but it’s a slightly concerning trend for a player whose game is built on power.

If the front office has concerns about Alonso’s long-term projection, a trade would be the most sensible decision. The Mets would get very little in return if they let him walk in free agency. They’d make him a qualifying offer, but they’d only receive a pick after the fourth round if he signs elsewhere. As a luxury tax payor, they’re entitled to the lowest compensation for losing a qualified free agent. The trade offers they receive this summer would certainly be better than that, even if Alonso’s limited control window and $20.5MM arbitration salary make it unlikely they’d get any top-tier prospects in return.

For the Mets to keep Alonso, they’d need to believe there’s a realistic path to the postseason in 2024 and/or feel good about their chances of retaining him in free agency. Making the playoffs this year isn’t impossible, but they’ve put themselves in a hole with their poor start. Holding Alonso would probably be more about the latter scenario — a sign they’re confident that he’ll stay in New York after seeing what other teams will offer.

Owner Steve Cohen is capable of outbidding anyone. He’s presumably keen on retaining Alonso, who has proven himself in New York and has been a fan favorite since his electrifying rookie season. Yet the Mets have been relatively restrained in the last two offseasons after their frenzied effort to spend their way into contention in 2021 didn’t quite pan out. (The Mets did win 101 games in 2022, but they followed up a first-round playoff exit with last year’s 75 wins.) The Mets seem to be gearing up for a bidding war with the Yankees and others on Juan Soto, which could take some of the priority away from Alonso.

It’s at least worth considering the possibility that the Mets trade Alonso before trying to bring him back next winter. That’s not unheard of but doesn’t happen often, particularly with players at the top of the market. A deadline trade typically reflects an understanding that the team and player aren’t going to line up on contract figures.

How will the Mets handle the situation? Is Alonso going to be on the move this summer?

What Will Happen With Pete Alonso?

Deadline trade 53.37% (5,037 votes)

Mets make the QO, let Alonso walk 16.13% (1,522 votes)

Mets extend or re-sign him 16.03% (1,513 votes)

Mets trade Alonso, then re-sign him in the offseason 14.47% (1,366 votes)

Total Votes: 9,438

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Will Justin Verlander Be Traded This Summer?

By Darragh McDonald | May 6, 2024 at 11:59pm CDT

With the Astros out to a rough start here in 2024, speculation has been mounting that they may have to consider a deadline selloff this summer. Righty Justin Verlander is in the final guaranteed season of his contract and would be a logical candidate for a trade, but Bob Nightengale of USA Today throws some cold water on the possibility.

Verlander has a full no-trade clause, which he waived last summer in order to go from the Mets to the Astros. Nightengale reports that the Dodgers, Rays and Mariners were all heavily involved for the veteran righty, but that he would only waive his no-trade to return to Houston since he loves playing there. Nightengale infers from this that Verlander isn’t likely to waive his no-trade again in order to be sent packing from Houston.

Despite Verlander’s love of being an Astro, it’s possible he will have to weigh that against his desire to compete. He cited a desire to win as his reason for signing with the Mets, though that plan didn’t work out and he eventually returned to Houston in his pursuit of another ring. The Astros are 12-22 at the moment and face a steep climb back into contention. The Playoff Odds at FanGraphs have dropped to 39.9%, after being at 86.2% at the start of the season. The PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are more optimistic, however, still giving them a 64.1% chance.

If the club can’t get back into the mix by July, perhaps Verlander would warm to the idea of moving to another contender, especially since he’s now 41 years old and is surely aware that he may only have so many chances left. He has a 2.08 earned run average so far this year and should receive plenty of interest. As Bob mentioned, teams like the Dodgers, Rays and Mariners were trying to get him last summer, and previous reporting also had clubs like the Giants, Atlanta, Padres and Orioles on the phone.

Verlander may not be a pure rental since he has a conditional player option for 2025. As part of the two-year deal he signed with the Mets going into 2023, if he throws 140 innings in 2024, he has a $35MM player option for 2025.

Verlander started the season on the injured list, which slightly lowered his chances of getting to 140 innings, but he still has plenty of time to get there. He didn’t make his debut this year until April 19 and has only logged 17 1/3 innings over three starts so far. But he also started last year on the IL, not debuting until early May, then stayed healthy the rest of the way and got to 162 1/3 innings. Another injury absence could tighten things, but he currently has plenty of room to get to 140 as things stand.

Player options often make clubs reluctant to acquire such players at the deadline because of the varying outcomes. If the player finishes the season strong, he will leave after being on the club for just a couple of months. If he performs poorly or gets injured, the team will be stuck with him for another year. But it’s worth pointing out that the extreme downside of a really significant injury won’t be present. Per Baseball Prospectus, the option also has a condition that “an independent physical exam determines Verlander does not have a right arm injury which would prevent him from being on the active roster for Opening Day 2025.”

That clause would protect clubs against the nightmare scenario where they trade for Verlander, he crosses the 140-inning mark but then requires Tommy John surgery or some other significant procedure. In that situation, Verlander would not have the right to exercise his player option. There’s still the chance of Verlander simply struggling due to his advancing age and triggering the player option, but there’s some downside protection there as well. As part of last year’s trade, the Mets agreed to cover half the option if it vests.

Verlander is making $43.33MM this year but the Mets are covering $31.3MM of that, as reported by Kristie Rieken of the Associated Press at the time of last year’s trade. That means the Astros are only on the hook for about $12MM this year, which will be down closer to $4MM by the time the deadline rolls around.

Despite his age, Verlander has continued to pitch extremely well and could be highly sought after this summer. His peripherals don’t really support his 2.08 ERA so far this year, since he has struck out just 19.1% of opponents while giving out walks at a 10.3% clip. He’s had help keeping runs off the board so far from a .239 batting average on balls in play and 93% strand rate. But it’s also a small sample size of three outings after being on the IL.

Last year wasn’t quite as dominant as his Cy Young-winning season in 2022, but he still put up a 3.22 ERA over his 27 starts. His 21.5% strikeout rate wasn’t strong but he also limited walks to a 6.7% clip.

Ultimately, there are a lot of factors that will determine whether Verlander is traded or not. The performance of the club will obviously be one of them, as Verlander would naturally be off the table if they get back into the playoff mix. If they stay out, Verlander’s feelings towards Houston might have him leaning against approving a trade, but he may prefer competing elsewhere if it’s a lost season for the Astros. It’s also unknown if the club would prefer to eat what they owe to Verlander to improve the prospect return, versus getting some other club to take on the money as a way of reducing their competitive balance tax calculation. Verlander staying healthy and pitching well will also be important, of course, especially with the player option up in the air.

There’s also the club’s long-term plans to consider. Max Scherzer wasn’t planning to leave the Mets last year until he found out the club was planning a sort of bridge year in 2024, which prompted him to approve a deal to the Rangers. If the Astros stay out of contention through the summer, they will have some tough decisions to make. Alex Bregman is an impending free agent and would be a logical trade candidate. Players like Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez and José Urquidy are slated for free agency after 2025, meaning they could be kept for another chance at competing next year or could be made available this summer as part of a larger reset. If that latter possibility opens up, it seems fair to assume that Verlander’s desire to stay in Houston would diminish, for the rest of this year and 2025.

What do you think is most likely for Verlander in the months to come? Have your say in the poll below!

Will Justin Verlander be traded this summer?

Yes 50.10% (3,006 votes)

No 49.90% (2,994 votes)

Total Votes: 6,000

Which Hot Or Cold Starts Are For Real?

By Darragh McDonald | April 18, 2024 at 8:19pm CDT

The 2024 season is just a few weeks old. There’s still a lot of time for narratives to shift and plenty of exciting or deflating changes are surely coming up over the horizon. Nonetheless, the games in April count just as much as the games in September. Some clubs have already banked some valuable wins while others have put themselves in a real hole.

Looking at the FanGraphs Playoff Odds today and comparing them to where they were ahead of the Seoul Series, there are five clubs that have increased their postseason chances by more than 10%. Meanwhile, six clubs have seen their odds drop by more than 10%. Which of those are just small-sample blips and which are signs that the club’s talent level is meaningfully different than expected? Let’s take a glance.

Orioles

The defending champions of the American League East were given just a 51.8% chance of making it back to the postseason, per the FanGraphs odds from before any games had been played. They have started out 12-6 and seen their odds jump to 76.5% today, a difference of 24.7%.

Baltimore continues to get huge contributions from its young core and role players alike. Jackson Holliday’s big league career is out to a slow start, but others have picked up the slack, with Colton Cowser, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg and Cedric Mullins off and running. Even Ryan O’Hearn, who was acquired in a small cash deal from the Royals, continues to thrive. On the pitching side, Corbin Burnes has been the expected ace while Grayson Rodriguez continues to cement himself as a quality big league arm. There are some question marks at the back end with Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin out to wobbly starts, but Kyle Bradish and John Means are both on minor league rehab assignments and could rejoin the club soon.

The 18 games they have played so far have come against the Angels, Royals, Pirates, Red Sox, Brewers and Twins.

Royals

The Royals entered the season with playoff odds of just 13.1% but they have gone 12-7 so far, bumping themselves up to 33.2%, a difference of 20.1%.

An improved rotation gets a lot of the credit. Between last year’s trade for Cole Ragans, the offseason signings of Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, as well as the emergence of Alec Marsh, it’s a whole new look alongside Brady Singer. None of those five have an ERA higher than 4.32 so far this year. On the position player side of things, Bobby Witt Jr. is further proving himself to be a superstar, while Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino are healthy and productive.

They have faced the Twins, Orioles, White Sox, Astros and Mets thus far.

Yankees

The Yanks had strong odds to begin with, starting out at 71.2%. A hot start of 13 wins and 6 losses has already bumped those all the way to 85.9%, a jump of 14.7%.

Health was a big factor for the Yankees last year, with players like Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton, Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodón all missing significant time. This year, Gerrit Cole is on the shelf, as is LeMahieu. But new face Juan Soto has been great so far, while Stanton, Cortes and Rodón are back in decent form.

The injuries or lack thereof will probably remain a focus for the months to come, especially with so many key players in their mid-30s. Last year, the club was 45-36 through the end of June, but mounting injuries led to them going 20-33 through July and August.

They have started their season by playing the Astros, Diamondbacks, Blue Jays, Marlins and Guardians.

Brewers

The National League Central is arguably the most up-for-grabs, with the five clubs fairly close in terms of talent. Despite being the reigning division champs, the Brewers were given just a 30.6% chance of making the postseason, below the Cardinals and Cubs. They’ve started out 11-6 and are now at 43.5%, a 12.9% bump.

There have been quite a few nice performance on the offensive side of things. Willy Adames had a bit of a down year in 2023 but is off to a good start in this campaign. Brice Turang and Blake Perkins are also putting up better numbers than last year. Joey Ortiz has done well since coming over from the Orioles in the Burnes trade. The loss of Burnes and the injury to Brandon Woodruff left the club without their co-aces, but Freddy Peralta has stepped up with a 2.55 ERA and 39.4% strikeout rate through his first three starts.

They have faced off against the Mets, Twins, Mariners, Reds, Orioles and Padres so far.

Mets

After a disastrous 2023 season and a relatively quiet winter, the Mets opened this year with their odds at 27.6%. A 10-8 start has already bumped them to 38.7%, an 11.1% difference.

They have been especially strong of late, as they started out 0-5 but have gone 10-3 over their last 13 contests. The bounceback plays on Luis Severino and Sean Manaea seem to be going well so far. Edwin Díaz is healthy again and already has four saves. On the position player side, Brett Baty seems to be taking a step forward. DJ Stewart is carrying over last year’s hot finish, and the Tyrone Taylor pickup looks like a nice move.

They have lined up against the Brewers, Tigers, Reds, Braves, Royals and Pirates.

Giants

The Giants added plenty of talent this winter and opened the season with playoff odds of 44.6%. But an 8-11 start has already dropped them to 34%, a difference of 10.6%.

Stretching out Jordan Hicks is going great so far, but Blake Snell showed a lot of rust in his first two starts after signing late in the offseason. On offense, acquisitions like Jung Hoo Lee, Matt Chapman and Nick Ahmed have produced subpar offense, and the same goes for incumbents like Mike Yastrzemski, Wilmer Flores and Thairo Estrada.

They have squared off against the Padres, Dodgers, Nationals, Rays and Marlins thus far.

Cardinals

Despite a dreadful 2023 campaign, expectations were high for the Cards coming into this year after they remade their rotation. But a middling start of 9-10 has dropped their playoff odds from 50.1% to 38.7%, a difference of 11.4%.

Injuries have been playing a notable role in the early going for the Cards, with Sonny Gray, Lars Nootbaar, Tommy Edman, Dylan Carlson and others missing time. The Lance Lynn signing looks good so far, as he has a 2.18 ERA through four starts, but Kyle Gibson is at 6.16. Both the veteran Paul Goldschmidt and the youngster Jordan Walker are out to terrible starts at the plate. The Cardinals’ long list of injuries opened up playing time for guys like Alec Burleson and Victor Scott II, who have each struggled immensely.

They have faced the Dodgers, Padres, Marlins, Phillies, Diamondbacks and Athletics to this point.

Mariners

The Mariners just missed the playoffs last year but still opened this season with a 60.8% chance of getting back there. A tepid start of 9-10 has seen those odds slide to 49.1%, a difference of 11.7%. Things were even more dire before they swept the Reds this week, as they were 6-10 prior to that.

The rotation has surprisingly been a problem thus far. An injury to Bryan Woo bumped Emerson Hancock into the rotation, but Hancock has an ERA of 7.98 through three starts. Each of Luis Castillo and George Kirby also have poor results, though those may be based on luck. Both have a high BABIP and low strand rate, so both have a FIP just above 3.00, about three runs lower than their ERA.

Julio Rodríguez is the biggest disappointment on the position player side. He is striking out at a 34.6% clip and walking just 5.1% of the time while still looking for his first home of the year, leading to a line of .219/.269/.260. Luke Raley, Mitch Garver and J.P. Crawford have also looked lost at the plate, with none of that trio posting a wRC+ higher than 75 so far.

The M’s have played the Red Sox, Guardians, Brewers, Blue Jays, Cubs and Reds.

Marlins

The Fish swam into the playoffs last year, their first postseason berth in a full season in 20 years. They followed that with an offseason mostly focused on overhauling their front office and player development system. A disastrous 4-15 start has already dropped this year’s playoff odds from 27.9% to 2.3%, a difference of 25.6%.

Injuries have been a huge factor, as the club’s former starting pitching surplus quickly became a deficit. Sandy Alcántara required Tommy John surgery last year, and Eury Pérez followed him down that path this year. Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett also missed some time due to shoulder troubles. A.J. Puk’s attempted move from the bullpen to the rotation is not going well so far, and Jesús Luzardo is struggling badly. Max Meyer was doing well but he was optioned to the minors to monitor his workload after he missed all of last year recovering from his own Tommy John procedure. The offense has been pretty bad across the board, as not a single member of the team has a wRC+ of 105 or higher. Jake Burger hit the injured list earlier this week, removing one of their top power bats from that already weak group.

They faced the Pirates, Angels, Cardinals, Yankees, Braves and Giants to start the year and have yet to win back-to-back games.

Astros

The Astros have been a powerhouse for years and opened this season with an 86.2% chance of returning to the postseason. But they have stumbled out of the gates this year with a record of 6-14, dropping their odds to 59.7%, a 26.5% drop.

Like some of the other clubs mentioned above, health has been a big factor here. Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia each underwent elbow surgery last year and are still rehabbing. So far this year, the Astros have lost Justin Verlander, José Urquidy and Framber Valdez to the IL, giving them a full rotation on the shelf. (Verlander will return tomorrow.)

With those prominent arms not around, others haven’t really picked up the slack. Hunter Brown has an ERA of 10.54 through four starts while J.P. France is at 7.08. Prospect Spencer Arrighetti was called up to fill in but has been tagged for nine runs over seven innings in his two outings. Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu have surprisingly been bad out of the bullpen, with each having an ERA of 6.00 or higher. On offense, José Abreu has been awful, hitting .078/.158/.098. That performance got him bumped down in the lineup, and he’s been ceding playing time to Jon Singleton lately.

The Astros began the year playing the Yankees, Blue Jays, Rangers, Royals and Braves.

Twins

The Twins are the reigning champs in the American League Central but made some budget cuts this winter. Their 6-11 start has moved their playoff odds from 66% to 38.6%, a shift of 27.4%.

Once again, injuries are a big part of the story here. Oft-injured Royce Lewis went down with a quad strain on Opening Day, and Carlos Correa followed him later, subtracting the club’s left side of the infield. The only guys with at least 30 plate appearances and a wRC+ above 100 are Ryan Jeffers, Alex Kirilloff and the currently-injured Correa. Multiple injured relievers, most notably Jhoan Durán, have left the bullpen shorthanded.

In the rotation, the club lost Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Tyler Mahle from last year’s club, but their main attempt at replacing those guys was to acquire Anthony DeSclafani on the heels of a pair of injury-wrecked seasons. He required flexor tendon surgery and will miss the rest of the year. The incumbents haven’t been much help. Chris Paddack, Louie Varland and Bailey Ober each have an ERA above 6.50, though Ober has rebounded after being shelled for eight runs in just 1 1/3 innings in his season debut.

___________________________________

Some of these are probably just flukes, and the results will even out over the rest of the season, but some of these clubs might be showing us who they really are. Which ones do you believe in? Have your say in the polls below, the first one for the hot starts and the second one for the cold starts. (Note: you can select multiple options in each poll.)

Which of these hot starts are for real?

Orioles 50.39% (4,587 votes)

Yankees 24.18% (2,201 votes)

Brewers 10.41% (948 votes)

Royals 9.70% (883 votes)

Mets 5.32% (484 votes)

Total Votes: 9,103

Which of these cold starts are for real?

Marlins 38.92% (3,900 votes)

Cardinals 21.01% (2,105 votes)

Twins 13.57% (1,360 votes)

Giants 10.24% (1,026 votes)

Astros 10.16% (1,018 votes)

Mariners 6.11% (612 votes)

Total Votes: 10,021

Will The Giants Trade J.D. Davis?

By Anthony Franco | March 6, 2024 at 11:28pm CDT

Trade rumors regarding J.D. Davis have been prevalent throughout the offseason. The Giants were linked to Matt Chapman for nearly four months before getting a deal done last week. Now that Chapman has displaced Davis from the starting lineup, there’s again speculation about a subsequent trade.

The Giants signing Chapman doesn’t seem to have been conditional on a Davis trade, as the latter remains on the San Francisco roster five days later. Davis is probably overqualified for a bench role. He has played fairly regularly over the past five seasons between the Mets and Giants. Davis has turned in above-average offensive numbers in each of those seasons, although last year’s .248/.325/.413 slash line was his weakest since he established himself as a regular.

Davis has received some criticism for his glove. Public metrics had almost unanimously graded him as a below-average defender until last season. There was a split in his defensive grades in 2023. Defensive Runs Saved still considered him among the worst third basemen in the league, grading him 11 runs below average. Statcast, by contrast, viewed his work as four runs better than par. No one would consider Davis comparable to Chapman with the glove, but pairing average or better defense with his power potential would make him a good everyday player.

That alone doesn’t mean the Giants need to trade him. San Francisco could keep him on hand as a quality depth option for this season. It’s not an ideal roster fit. Beyond Chapman, the Giants have Wilmer Flores as a righty-hitting corner infielder and will use Jorge Soler at designated hitter.

While Davis would have the ability to pursue an everyday third base job in free agency next winter, he doesn’t have much recourse right now. He said over the weekend that he’s willing to do “whatever the team needs,” even as he called the signing “definitely surprising” and stated he was unaware the team was adding Chapman before it was reported publicly (comments relayed by John Shea and Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle).

Carrying Davis in a limited role is a suboptimal outcome for the Giants. He’s making $6.9MM after winning an arbitration hearing. That’s a lot to commit for a player used sparsely off the bench. Yet even if the Giants decide they’d prefer to offload Davis’ salary, Chapman’s late signing date could complicate those efforts.

A number of teams have publicly declared they’re near or at the level at which they’re willing to spend. Some clubs might view Davis as a slight upgrade over their in-house third basemen but not want to add a near-$7MM salary less than three weeks before Opening Day. Free agent spending on infielders was down all offseason and has gone particularly cold in recent weeks. Players like Tim Anderson ($5MM), Amed Rosario ($1.5MM) and Gio Urshela ($1.5MM) inked one-year pacts for salaries below what Davis will command. The Urshela contract, in particular, doesn’t point to a robust demand for third basemen.

Where will that leave the Giants? Will whatever trade interest they receive in Davis over the next few weeks be strong enough that they deem it preferable to keeping him?

Will The Giants Trade J.D. Davis?

Yes, before Opening Day. 46.02% (2,341 votes)

Yes, midseason. 35.15% (1,788 votes)

No. 18.83% (958 votes)

Total Votes: 5,087

Which Is The Best Team In The AL East?

By Nick Deeds | March 2, 2024 at 7:11pm CDT

Just over a week ago, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald discussed the National League Central, which is arguably MLB’s most tightly-contested division. While no other division compares to that projected dogfight, the American League East provides the Central with a worthy rival in that regard as the only other division that Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA projects to not include a 90-loss team. Indeed, there’s an argument to be made that the battle for the AL East this year figures to be even more hotly contested. After all, PECOTA projects both the Pirates and Reds to finish with a lower win total than any of the teams in the AL East, while Fangraphs projects the East as the only division in the majors without a sub-.500 club.

That projection systems see the AL East as a division with five potential contenders is supported by last year’s results. The Orioles led the pack last season with a 101-win record, capturing the division title despite a strong showing from the Rays, who finished two games behind Baltimore. Both Tampa and Toronto also managed to make the postseason last year, while New York and Boston both remained on the periphery of the playoff picture into September despite ultimately coming up short. Since then, each club has seen significant changes, and with the likes of Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery still on the market, it’s easy to imagine one or more of these club’s further improving their stock prior to Opening Day. In the meantime, let’s take a look at where things stand in the American League’s most competitive division:

Orioles: 101-61 in 2023, FG projects 85 wins in 2024, PECOTA 86.2

The Orioles were perhaps the most surprising team in baseball last year, surging to the club’s first AL East title since the 2014 season thanks to contributions from youngsters like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Grayson Rodriguez. Those same young players will be back this season and figure to be joined by consensus #1 overall prospect Jackson Holliday at some point this season, perhaps as soon as Opening Day. The club’s exciting young core figures to once again be complemented by solid veterans such as Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander as well, giving them a strong offensive nucleus with which to attempt to continue their reign atop the East.

With that being said, the club has seen some turnover this winter. Veteran starter Kyle Gibson departed the rotation via free agency this winter, and while the club swung a deal earlier this offseason to acquire former Brewers ace Corbin Burnes to front their rotation, dealing away promising southpaw DL Hall and infielder Joey Ortiz could be something of a blow to the club’s depth headed into the season. More noticeably, two key pitchers from the 2023 season are entering the season with significant injuries: closer Felix Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery late last year and figures to miss all of the 2024 campaign, while right-hander Kyle Bradish faces a lengthy absence of his own due to a UCL issue after leading the Baltimore rotation last season with a sterling 2.83 ERA across 30 starts.

While the injuries faced by Bradish and Bautista leave the Orioles without two of their top pitchers to open the season, the additions of Burnes and veteran closer Craig Kimbrel should help to soften those blows, and with youngsters such as Holliday, Cade Povich, and Coby Mayo all on the verge of contributing at the big league level, there’s plenty of reason to believe Baltimore can remain in the upper echelon of the league headed into 2024 as long as the club’s young stars can avoid taking a step back this season.

Rays: 99-63 in 2023, FG projects 86 wins in 2024, PECOTA 86.9

The Rays started the 2023 campaign on an incredible hot streak, winning a record-breaking 13 consecutive games to open the season last year thanks to strong pitching performances from the likes of Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, and Shane McClanahan. Unfortunately, each of those aforementioned arms underwent season-ending surgery last year and are expected to miss at least the first half of the 2024 campaign, if not longer. Tampa’s rotation mix was further weakened by the club dealing right-hander Tyler Glasnow to the Dodgers back in December, leaving the club with little certainty in the starting mix outside of Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale. Another major loss from a production standpoint is shortstop Wander Franco, who posted 4.6 fWAR in 112 games last year but is facing sexual abuse charges in his native Dominican Republic that put his future in the majors in doubt.

Even with that hefty number of losses, however, the Rays still figure to be a force to be reckoned with headed into 2024. After all, the club sports one of the deepest lineups in the game, led by the likes of Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Isaac Paredes and Randy Arozarena. In addition to that group, the club sports plenty of young talent with the likes of Junior Caminero, Josh Lowe, and Curtis Mead all expected to contribute at the big league level at some point this season on the positional side. Meanwhile, the pitching staff boasts intriguing youngsters like Taj Bradley, Shane Baz, and offseason acquisition Ryan Pepiot, each of whom are likely to join Civale and Eflin as rotation pieces this season. The club’s perennially excellent bullpen continues to look strong as well, with a back-end trio of Pete Fairbanks, Jason Adam, and Colin Poche bolstered by offseason additions such as Phil Maton.

Given the number of significant absences the Rays are facing entering the season, it’s not necessarily surprising that projections systems expect the club to take a major step back in 2024. The club figures to rely on the likes of Jose Caballero and Taylor Walls in place of Franco at short and young, unproven arms like Bradley and Pepiot in place of established power arms like McClanahan and Rasmussen. Even so, the club’s deep lineup and strong bullpen figure to keep the club in contention for the AL East crown this season, particularly if the youngsters in the rotation find success in the big leagues.

Blue Jays: 89-73 in 2023, FG projects 85 wins in 2024, PECOTA 88.6

The 2023 season was a strange one in Toronto, as key stars such as Alejandro Kirk, George Springer, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. took steps back at the plate to leave the club with a surprisingly tepid offense. That didn’t stop the Jays from contending last year, however, as the club managed to sneak into the final AL Wild Card spot with an 89-win campaign thanks to a strong performance from the club’s starting rotation. Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Yusei Kikuchi, and Chris Bassitt each combined to give the club above-average production while making more than 30 starts a piece, and veteran southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu managed to step into the rotation and provide solid back-end production when youngster Alek Manoah struggled badly throughout the season.

Entering the offseason, the club seemed poised to make big changes as they were connected to the likes of Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, though they ultimately ended up having a much quieter offseason. After watching the likes of Matt Chapman and Brandon Belt depart in free agency, the club brought in the likes of Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Justin Turner to fill the void at third base and DH while adding to their pitching depth with the addition of Yariel Rodriguez. Those minor moves leave the club likely to look for internal improvements as they hope to return to the postseason in 2024. Some of that improvement could come from the club’s young talent, with top pitching prospect Ricky Tiedemann likely to debut sometime this year while the likes of Davis Schneider and Ernie Clement figure to attempt to establish themselves in larger roles.

While the club’s lineup took a bit of a hit this winter after a disappointing 2023 campaign, a robust pitching staff figures to keep the Blue Jays afloat this season even if the offense fails to take a step forward. It’s easy to imagine the club returning to the postseason in 2024 if stars like Bo Bichette, Guerrero, and Springer can deliver impactful performances, especially if the club gets strong production from its supporting cast of hitters like Turner, Schneider, and Daulton Varsho.

Yankees: 82-80 in 2023, FG projects 89 wins in 2024, PECOTA 94.7

After missing the postseason for the first time since 2017 and barely escaping the 2023 season with a winning record, the Yankees wasted no time this winter in looking to improve the club’s postseason chances for year two of Aaron Judge’s nine-year megadeal with the club. That included a complete retool of the club’s outfield mix as the club acquired Juan Soto, Trent Grisham, and Alex Verdugo to complement Judge on the outfield grass while balancing a lineup that leaned too right-handed in 2023. The blockbuster deal for Soto and Grisham cost the club plenty of big league pitching talent, including the likes of Michael King and Randy Vasquez, though New York went on to patch up the club’s starting rotation by landing veteran right-hander Marcus Stroman in free agency.

That lengthy offseason shopping list seems likely to leave them in strong position to contend this season even as they lost the likes of Luis Severino, Harrison Bader, and King from last year’s club. Even as the club added a quality mid-rotation arm, solid outfield regulars, and a superstar bat to its mix, however, it’s possible the club’s most impactful improvements could come internally after the club dealt with a hefty number of injuries last year. Judge followed up his 2022 AL MVP-winning performance with another season that saw him post an OPS north of 1.000 in 2023, though he was limited to just 106 games by a toe injury. Meanwhile, southpaws Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon both struggled badly with injuries and ineffectiveness last year but still carry front-of-the-rotation upside when healthy, while veteran hitters like Stanton and Anthony Rizzo could also benefit from improved health this season and rebound from difficult 2023 campaigns.

Of all the clubs in the AL East, it’s easy to make the argument that the Yankees did the most to improve this winter. While even those additions may not be enough to catch up to the club’s divisional rivals on their own after an 82-win campaign, improved health from the club’s key regulars both on the mound and in the lineup could certainly help the club avoid missing the postseason in back-to-back campaigns for the first time since the 2013 and ’14 seasons.

Red Sox: 78-84 in 2023, FG projects 81 wins in 2024, PECOTA 79.2

It’s been a strange offseason in Boston, as the club began the winter with promises of a “full throttle” approach to the 2024 season and a goal of improving the club’s rotation. Despite those major plans, the club has generally opted for smaller moves throughout the winter. Perhaps the club’s most notable move was parting ways with longtime ace Chris Sale in a trade that netted the club young infielder Vaughn Grissom, while Sale’s spot atop the club’s rotation appears poised to go to right-hander Lucas Giolito.

The club also added outfielder Tyler O’Neill in a trade with the Cardinals while signing veteran closer Liam Hendriks to a two-year deal, though the righty won’t impact the team until the second half at the earliest as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Those moves more or less leave the club in a similar position as they were last season, with Giolito replacing Sale while O’Neill and Grissom figure to replace Adam Duvall and Turner in the club’s lineup. While the club’s most significant offseason losses have been replaced in one form or another, other departures such as those of James Paxton, Alex Verdugo, and John Schreiber have all gone unanswered to this point in the winter.

Despite the club’s many question marks, there’s some reason for optimism in Boston, thanks to the young talent that could impact the club this year. In addition to Grissom serving as a potential solution at second base, Triston Casas, Jarren Duran, and Brayan Bello took significant steps forward last year and could prove to be core pieces for the club, while youngsters like Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela could also impact the club this season after making brief cameos in the majors last year. It’s certainly possible to imagine Trevor Story returning to the form that once made him a star with the Rockies now that he’s further removed from the elbow troubles that cost him much of last season, and Masataka Yoshida could be an impactful bat if he can recreate his performance from the first half of 2023 over the full season this year. Meanwhile, the rotation features a handful of interesting youngsters such as Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock, and Kutter Crawford, any of whom could prove to be an impactful arm if they manage to take a step forward this year.

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On the heels of a 2023 season that saw three of the division’s five teams make the postseason and its fifth-place finisher end the season with a better record than the fourth place finishers of four other divisions, it’s perhaps not a surprise that the AL East figures to once again be among the most competitive divisions in baseball this year. After a busy offseason in the division, which team do you think will come out on top? Was the Yankees’ splashy offseason to put them back in the driver’s seat? Will another year of development for the young players in Baltimore allow them to repeat their dominant 2023 campaign? Will the deep rosters of the Rays or Blue Jays manage to outlast the competition? Or could the Red Sox outperform the projections and take the division on the back of their young players and rebound candidates?

Which team in the AL East is best? Have your say in the poll below!

Which Is The Best Team In The AL East?

Orioles 51.80% (6,078 votes)

Yankees 28.50% (3,344 votes)

Blue Jays 7.74% (908 votes)

Rays 6.09% (715 votes)

Red Sox 5.87% (689 votes)

Total Votes: 11,734

What Does Matt Chapman’s Market Look Like After The Cody Bellinger Deal?

By Darragh McDonald | February 26, 2024 at 11:59pm CDT

For weeks now, the baseball world’s spotlight has been pointed at the “Boras Four.” Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery are all represented by the Boras Corporation and each one lingered in free agency until late February as a staring contest seemed to be taking place between the agency and interested clubs.

The first blink finally came over the weekend, with Bellinger agreeing to return to the Cubs on a short-term, opt-out laden deal. Bellinger is guaranteed $80MM over three years but can walk away after each of the first two seasons, collecting salaries of $30MM in each of those two campaigns.

Now the attention will turn to the other three, and it’s possible there are domino effects of the Bellinger deal, particularly for Chapman. The Cubs were a speculative fit for starting pitchers this winter, but they signed Shota Imanaga and were never firmly connected to either Snell or Montgomery.

But for Chapman, the Cubs were one of four clubs to have been reportedly involved in his market. Adding Bellinger to the club doesn’t eliminate the roster fit with Chapman, as their third base mix is still fairly unsettled. It seems like some combination of Christopher Morel, Patrick Wisdom and Nick Madrigal will be vying for playing time at the hot corner. Morel has just 180 2/3 big league innings at the position with poor grades from defensive metrics. It’s a fairly small sample, but the Cubs haven’t been confident enough in his abilities there to let him expand it. His potent bat also comes with concerns, including a 31.6% strikeout rate thus far in his career. Wisdom’s profile is somewhat comparable while Madrigal is the inverse, providing solid glovework and avoiding strikeouts but with almost no power to speak of.

There would be an argument to the Cubs adding Chapman to solidify that position. The designated hitter spot is open, which would still give Morel a path to regular at-bats while serving as a utility player, moving to various positions to give others an occasional day off. Wisdom and Madrigal could be useful role players off the bench.

However, the Cubs may be done making impact signings. After the Bellinger deal, Roster Resource pegs their competitive balance tax number just above $234MM. That puts just them barely under this year’s $237MM base threshold. They have paid the tax in the past, but not since 2019. They were technically over the line in 2020 but the taxes were waived in the pandemic-shortened season.

If the Cubs wanted to, they could get back over the line again, but they might to prefer to stay where they are for now. They could use the first half of the season to assess Morel’s abilities at the position and then make a deadline trade if they decide an upgrade over him, Madrigal and/or Wisdom is warranted.

What also might be an issue is that Chapman may be less inclined to take a short-term deal like the one Bellinger signed. While Bellinger in 28 years old, Chapman is a couple of months away from his 31st birthday. Returning to the open market a year from now would have some appeal, since he’s currently saddled with a qualifying offer. Players can only receive one QO in their careers, and that wouldn’t be a concern next winter. He could also perhaps stay healthy and put together a better offensive platform, after he was seemingly held back by a finger injury in 2023. But his primary selling point is his defense, and the appeal of that glovework to clubs will likely only go down as he pushes further into his 30s. If clubs are wary of making a long-term commitment to Chapman at the moment, that’d only be truer next offseason, barring a massive resurgence at the plate.

It’s possible Chapman is looking to bank as much money as possible right now, which might not make the Cubs the perfect fit in the long term. Two of their best prospects are infielders in Matt Shaw and James Triantos. Shaw was just drafted last summer but was in Double-A by the end of the year and may not be too far from the majors. Triantos also reached Double-A last year and then seemed to have a breakout in the Arizona Fall League. Both of them have played second base, third base and shortstop in the minors, but the Cubs are fairly set up the middle. Dansby Swanson is still one of the best defensive shortstops in the game and is signed through 2029. Nico Hoerner is excellent at the keystone, and his contract runs through 2026.

With Shaw and Triantos on the way, Morel a plausible solution at third base in the short term and the club’s CBT number right up against the line, the Cubs may not want to make a big investment in Chapman. Perhaps that would change if Chapman is open to a short-term deal but, as mentioned, there are reasons why he may not be as amenable to that structure as Bellinger was.

Besides the Cubs, the three other clubs that have been connected to Chapman in rumors are the Blue Jays, Giants and Mariners. The Jays employed Chapman last year and have reportedly been interested in bringing him back, though the rumors connected to the two sides have largely dried up since November. In the interim, the Jays have added infielders Justin Turner and Isiah Kiner-Falefa to the roster.

The signings of those two players shouldn’t close the door to a Chapman reunion, as Turner could fill the role served by Brandon Belt last year, serving primarily as a DH while donning a glove from time to time. Kiner-Falefa could replace Whit Merrifield, who split his time between second base and the outfield for the Jays last year.

That means Chapman could still retake his position from last year while leaving the Jays in essentially the same spot as 2023, but they also have an army of young infielders. Between Turner, Kiner-Falefa, Cavan Biggio, Santiago Espinal, Davis Schneider, Damiano Palmegiani, Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger, Leo Jimenez and Ernie Clement, they may feel they have enough bodies to cover both second and third base. They also brought in veteran Eduardo Escobar on a minor league deal.

Beyond the roster fit, there’s also the financial question. The club opened last season with a franchise-high payroll of $210MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They are already way beyond that for this year, with Roster Resource putting them at $236MM. They also have a CBT figure of $249MM, already $12MM over the base threshold. Signing Chapman to a significant deal would mean pushing beyond the second line of $257MM. General manager Ross Atkins recently suggested that adding anything to the books would also require subtraction, implying they are at their limit.

The Giants don’t strictly need a third baseman, as they have J.D. Davis at the hot corner. However, upgrading the defense has been a concern for that club after some recent struggles. Their team-wide -15 Defensive Runs Saved last year had them 23rd in the league. Chapman has a tally of 92 DRS in his career, including 12 in 2023. Davis, meanwhile, was at -11 last year. His Outs Above Average tally was much nicer at +5, but even OAA considers him subpar in his career.

Chapman would give the club a nice defensive boost to the left side of the infield, which may be extra important if they plan to give rookie Marco Luciano an audition at shortstop. It’s also been speculated that Chapman’s connections to manager Bob Melvin and president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi might play a role, as both of them were with the Athletics when Chapman was drafted by that club.

But there are also reasons why Chapman may not end up in San Francisco. Zaidi recently threw some cold water on the possibility of a notable addition. That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s off the table, as Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts made some similar comments not long before they agreed with Bellinger. But the Giants are also relatively close to the CBT line, with Roster Resource putting them at $213MM. They have paid the tax in the past but not since 2017.

Perhaps the market for the top free agents has been depressed enough that they can sign one of the remaining Boras guys while staying under the line. That’s especially true of Chapman, if signing him led to a trade of Davis and some or all of his $6.9MM salary. But even if there’s powder dry for another move, it’s arguable that it would make more sense for them to go after Snell or Montgomery, both of whom they have had reported interest in. Their rotation has little certainly beyond Logan Webb, as both Alex Cobb and Robbie Ray will be starting the year on the injured list. Webb will be backed up by Jordan Hicks, who is unproven as a starter, as well as inexperienced youngsters like Kyle Harrison, Tristan Beck and Keaton Winn.

As for the Mariners, they are currently slated to have a platoon of Luis Urías and Josh Rojas at the hot corner. Both of them are coming off poor seasons, with Rojas finishing with a wRC+ of 78 and Urias at 83. Even though Chapman struggled a bit last year, his wRC+ still finished at 110. He’s also a better defender than either of them and would give the club a clear upgrade.

Despite the roster fit, general manager Justin Hollander recently said the club’s upcoming additions would likely be more marginal in nature. The M’s had an Opening Day payroll of $137MM last year, per Cot’s, and Roster Resource puts them at $135MM going into this year. They’ve been as high as $158MM in the past but it’s been reported that their TV revenue uncertainty may prevent them from pushing far beyond last year’s figure.

There are other clubs that could make for speculative fits but they haven’t yet been meaningfully connected to Chapman in his nearly four months on the open market. The Angels could sign him and bump Anthony Rendon into a DH role, but their rotation also needs upgrading and owner Arte Moreno recently said the club will have a lower payroll this year. The Mets have an uncertain third base mix but seem willing to let Brett Baty and Mark Vientos battle for time there, and they are facing a 110% tax bill on any further spending at this point. The Yankees could bump DJ LeMahieu into a utility role but are also facing a 110% tax bill on further spending. The Phillies could sign Chapman and move Alec Bohm to the bench but there hasn’t been any indication they are thinking of doing so. They are also looking at sizeable taxes and are only $16MM away from the third CBT tier, the crossing of which would cause their top 2025 draft pick to be pushed back 10 spots. The Brewers could make sense but they also may want to let Joey Ortiz have a shot at third base after acquiring him in the Corbin Burnes trade and don’t usually make huge free agent splashes anyway. Young outfielder Sal Frelick will also be getting looks in the infield this spring.

A couple of months ago, MLBTR ran a poll looking at Chapman’s market. The Cubs were the third most popular choice, getting 19.65% of the votes. Presumably, less readers will see the fit after the Bellinger signing, but let’s find out. Where do you think he’ll end up?

That post also featured a poll about Chapman’s earning power. At that point, almost 60% of respondents still felt Chapman could get over $100MM. That percentage will also likely be lower as he remains unsigned with the month of March just over the horizon, but let’s see. Have your say in the polls below!

Where Will Matt Chapman Sign?

Giants 30.92% (3,607 votes)

Blue Jays 19.74% (2,302 votes)

Mariners 14.33% (1,671 votes)

Cubs 9.01% (1,051 votes)

Other 7.24% (845 votes)

Angels 6.17% (720 votes)

Brewers 4.04% (471 votes)

Yankees 3.76% (439 votes)

Mets 2.81% (328 votes)

Phillies 1.97% (230 votes)

Total Votes: 11,664

For How Much Will Matt Chapman Sign?

$75MM or less 51.97% (5,136 votes)

$76-100MM 33.07% (3,268 votes)

$101-125MM 9.03% (892 votes)

$126-150MM 3.36% (332 votes)

More than $200MM 1.05% (104 votes)

$151-175MM 1.00% (99 votes)

$176-200MM 0.53% (52 votes)

Total Votes: 9,883

Which Is The Best Team In The NL Central?

By Darragh McDonald | February 23, 2024 at 5:08pm CDT

The National League Central is arguably the tightest division in the majors right now. That’s subjective but borne out by projection systems. The FanGraphs projected standings have all five teams currently slated for between 83 and 77 wins, the smallest spread from first to last out of the six divisions. The PECOTA standings at Baseball Prospectus aren’t quite as tight, with a spread of 11.7 games from first to last, but that’s still narrower than any other division in the league.

Last year, the Brewers took the division fairly easily, going 92-70 and finishing nine games up on the second-place Cubs. But a lot has changed since then and there could still be more changes to come. The “Boras Four” of Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger remain unsigned, as do several other free agents. One of those players joining an NL Central club could change the calculation but let’s take a look at where things stand now, in order of last year’s standings.

Brewers: 92-70 in 2023, FG projects 80 wins in 2024, PECOTA 79

The reigning champions have undergone some significant changes, particularly in their rotation. Brandon Woodruff underwent shoulder surgery late last year, with the rehab putting his 2024 season in jeopardy. He was non-tendered and re-signed but won’t be a factor until late in the upcoming season, if at all. On top of that, the club traded Corbin Burnes to the Orioles, meaning they are now without both of their co-aces from recent years.

That makes the rotation clearly weaker than it has been in previous seasons, even though they did acquire some reinforcements. DL Hall came over in the Burnes trade and the Brewers will give him a chance to earn a rotation job. They also re-signed Wade Miley and Colin Rea in addition to bringing in Jakob Junis and Joe Ross to back up Freddy Peralta, who has now been vaulted to the top spot. Prospects Jacob Misiorowski and Robert Gasser could push for roles during the season.

While the starting rotation has clearly been diminished, the lineup should be better. They didn’t lose any core pieces from last year’s position player mix while they have signed free agents Rhys Hoskins and Gary Sánchez for some extra thump. Prospect Jackson Chourio should be up to make his debut this year while other young players like Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell and Brice Turang will hopefully continue to take steps forward. Joey Ortiz, who came over in the Burnes deal alongside Hall, could seize a role on the infield.

Cubs: 83-79 in 2023, FG projects 80 wins in 2024, PECOTA 80.8

The Cubs have been retooling for a few years but just narrowly missed a return to the postseason in 2023. Their finished 83-79, just one game behind the Diamondbacks and Marlins, who got the last two Wild Card spots. They then saw Bellinger, Jeimer Candelario and Marcus Stroman become free agents, subtracting two regulars from the lineup and a starter from the rotation. Candelario since jumped to the Reds and Stroman to the Yankees, though Bellinger is still out there.

In the rotation, Stroman has effectively been replaced by the signing of Shota Imanaga. The Cubs signed him in January and it’s hoped that he can supply at least some mid-rotation production to make up for the loss of Stroman, slotting in next to Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Kyle Hendricks. A bounceback from Taillon could arguably make the rotation even better this year. The same could be said about a step forward from rookie Jordan Wicks, who debuted last year.

In the lineup, the Cubs are hoping that Michael Busch can be a difference maker. Acquired from the Dodgers in an offseason trade, he has always hit well in the minors but was blocked from seizing a role on his previous club. He’ll take over the first base spot, which was a bit of a hole for the Cubs last year. Bringing back Bellinger to center field still seems possible, but until it happens, the plan appears to be to count on Pete Crow-Armstrong to seize a job. The youngster is considered a great defender but his bat is questionable. Mike Tauchman is on hand if PCA doesn’t make a case for himself.

Signing Chapman to take over third could be a logical move but it’s also possible the club could slot Christopher Morel there. He has an exciting amount of power in his bat and his throwing arm, but concerns about his defense and propensity for strikeouts. Still, the bar is not too high for him to be better than guys like Nick Madrigal or Patrick Wisdom.

Reds: 82-80 in 2023, FG projects 79 wins in 2024, PECOTA 78.7

A surge of young position player talent was almost enough to vault the Reds into the playoffs last year. They did that despite a team-wide ERA of 4.83 and and 5.43 mark from their starting rotation. No significant contributors to the 2023 club reached free agency, so even just a bit of internal improvement could make them a contender.

But the Reds weren’t just going to rely on their incumbent options, as they have been fairly active this offseason. They added Candelario to their position player mix despite already having plenty of bats for their lineup. That should give them some cover for any of their young players suffering some regression or an injury.

They also bolstered the pitching staff which, as mentioned, was an issue last year. Free agents Frankie Montas, Nick Martínez, Emilio Pagán and Brent Suter were all signed to the roster. Montas is coming off a lengthy injury absence but was quite effective the last time he was healthy. Martínez could be a back-end addition for the rotation or he might wind up in the bullpen with Pagán and Suter. They could also get better just via health, as no one on the club logged 150 innings last year as each of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft spent time on the IL, while Andrew Abbott didn’t debut until midseason.

Pirates: 76-86 in 2023, FG projects 77 wins in 2024, PECOTA 73

Somewhat similar to the Reds, the Pirates also rode a wave of young talent last year, though it didn’t have the same staying power. They were in first place in the division as late as June 15 but faded as the season wore on and finished outside contention.

They were facing almost no roster losses, as their most significant free agents from 2023 were Andrew McCutchen and Vince Velasquez. McCutchen re-signed while Velasquez only made eight starts last year anyway due to elbow surgery. But they faced other challenges as right-hander Johan Oviedo and catcher Endy Rodríguez both required UCL surgery this offseason and will miss all of 2024.

With Rodríguez out, the club is hoping Henry Davis can pivot back behind the plate and take over. They signed veteran Yasmani Grandal as a bit of insurance in case things don’t work out with Davis. They grabbed a couple of veteran starters as well in Martín Pérez and Marco Gonzales, hoping that duo can over for the losses of Oviedo and Velasquez as well as the struggles of Roansy Contreras. The impending debut of prospect Paul Skenes could also help in that department as well, with Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler perhaps not far behind.

The lineup hasn’t drastically changed, with Rowdy Tellez brought in as a bounceback candidate. Perhaps their most impactful lineup upgrade could be the health of Oneil Cruz, who missed most of 2023 due ankle surgery. They also signed Aroldis Chapman to help David Bednar form a lockdown late-inning duo.

Cardinals: 71-91 in 2023, FG projects 83 wins in 2024, PECOTA 84.7

Many predicted the Cards to win the division last year but it clearly did not happen. Plenty of things went wrong, particularly on the pitching side of things, and they ended up in the basement. The team-wide ERA of 4.83 was better than just five teams in the majors, with the 5.08 rotation ERA even worse. Adam Wainwright’s swan song turned out to be ear-splitting while Steven Matz and Jack Flaherty also struggled. Depth guys like Dakota Hudson, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Jake Woodford were all bad to varying degrees.

Remaking the rotation was the clear priority this winter and they have been active in that department. They quickly signed Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson at the start of the offseason to replace Flaherty, Montgomery and Wainwright. Sem Robberse, Adam Kloffenstein, Tekoah Roby and Drew Rom were all acquired at last year’s deadline and could make the emergency depth stronger. Victor Santos was added this offseason as part of the Tyler O’Neill trade.

Not too much has changed on the position player side of things. As mentioned, O’Neill was shipped out but the club is hoping to replace him internally. The emergence of Masyn Winn at shortstop means that Tommy Edman is probably now an outfielder full-time, assuming Winn produces better results than he did in his debut last year. Bounceback performances, particularly from Nolan Arenado, will be key. In the bullpen, Jordan Hicks and Chris Stratton were traded last summer. The Cards traded for Andrew Kittredge and signed Keynan Middleton to try to make up for those two departures.

Compared to the other divisions in the big leagues, this one is the hardest to decide on a clear favorite. The Brewers are the defending champs but have lost their two aces. Can the extra offense make up for that? Was it a rare blip that the Cardinals were so bad last year? Have the Cubs done enough to get over the hump? Can the Reds or Pirates get enough improvement from their young players to surge ahead?

What do you think? Have your say in the poll below!

Which Is The Best Team In The NL Central?

Cardinals 28.71% (3,702 votes)

Reds 23.98% (3,092 votes)

Cubs 21.37% (2,756 votes)

Brewers 17.84% (2,301 votes)

Pirates 8.10% (1,045 votes)

Total Votes: 12,896

Which Of The Boras Four Will Be The First To Sign?

By Anthony Franco | February 23, 2024 at 10:31am CDT

Spring Training games got underway yesterday. The regular season opens in less than a month. Offseason activity is far from over, though, largely on account of the so-called “Boras Four.” Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery and Matt Chapman remain unsigned.

Over the past couple weeks, a handful of teams have indirectly suggested they weren’t going to be suitors for the top free agents. High-level executives with the Giants, Rangers, Nationals, Mariners and Twins have downplayed the chance of a free agent strike of note. Angels owner Arte Moreno has suggested payroll is coming down, while Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins indicated they could have to move money if they’re to make another significant acquisition. Others, like the Red Sox and Cubs, appear to be in a holding pattern as they try to wait out the market.

Perhaps there’s some element of public posturing from a few of those teams. If any of these players are close to an agreement, though, there hasn’t been much indication of that. Unsubstantiated reports suggested the Yankees were closing in on a deal with Snell earlier this week, but both SNY’s Andy Martino and Bryan Hoch of MLB.com confirmed there hasn’t been any recent movement on that front.

If the number of plausible suitors for any of this group has dwindled, perhaps a Spring Training injury can change the calculus. The Orioles revealed early in camp that #2 starter Kyle Bradish has a UCL injury that’ll send him to the injured list. Mets staff ace Kodai Senga was diagnosed with a posterior capsule strain in his throwing shoulder yesterday; he’ll also start the year on the shelf. President of baseball operations David Stearns shot down the idea that’d increase the urgency for the Mets to go outside the organization for rotation help.

Again, it’s possible that’s designed not to publicly concede leverage in talks with the Boras Corporation if the Mets did circle back on Snell or Montgomery. To this point, there’s no indication any of these players have meaningfully moved off asking prices from the early part of the offseason. Will that change, or will one of these teams push beyond their comfort zone and reward any of these players’ patience?

Whose market with thaw most quickly? Which of the Boras four is going to be the first to agree to terms? Will any of this group linger in free agency beyond Opening Day?

Who Will Be The First To Sign?

Blake Snell. 30.24% (4,441 votes)

Jordan Montgomery. 30.19% (4,434 votes)

Matt Chapman. 21.25% (3,121 votes)

Cody Bellinger. 18.32% (2,691 votes)

Total Votes: 14,687

How Many Of The Boras Four Will Sign After Opening Day?

2 42.57% (3,960 votes)

1 24.04% (2,236 votes)

3 17.23% (1,603 votes)

4 16.16% (1,503 votes)

Total Votes: 9,302

Should Blake Snell Consider A Short-Term Deal?

By Darragh McDonald | February 15, 2024 at 11:59pm CDT

This offseason has proven to be incredibly slow, with many notable free agents still lingering on the open market in the middle of February. That includes J.D. Martinez, Michael Lorenzen, Gio Urshela, Tim Anderson, Amed Rosario, Whit Merrifield, Brandon Belt, Tommy Pham, Adam Duvall, Hyun Jin Ryu, Brandon Woodruff, Liam Hendriks and many more. But most notably, it includes four top free agents that were generally expected to land nine-figure deals coming into offseason: Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell.

As the calendar continues moving forward and they remain unsigned, the possibility of creative solutions has to be considered. If some club was willing to give these players a straight deal that matched their asking price, it would likely have happened by now. If they can’t find what they are looking for, they might have to open their minds to alternatives. Things can always change, especially with an unexpected injury. The O’s are suddenly without Kyle Bradish as he’s been diagnosed with a sprained UCL and his status is up in the air. That’s not to say that the O’s will suddenly pivot and sign Snell, merely to illustrate that plans can change quickly for any club.

Players in this situation will sometimes opt for a short-term deal with a high average annual value and opt-outs. For instance, when Carlos Correa first signed with the Twins prior to the 2022 campaign, it was a guarantee of $105.3MM over three years. That was a $35.1MM AAV, with Correa having opt-out opportunities after each year. That allowed him to make a huge salary that year and gave him a decent floor in the event of catastrophic injury or a huge dip in performance, while maintaining future earning power.

Correa eventually triggered that first opt-out and returned to the open market, agreeing to a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants. That deal eventually fell apart due to the club having concerns about his long-term health, but it still illustrates the appeal of taking this path. Even after that deal evaporated, Correa still managed to get a $200MM guarantee by signing with the Twins. Carlos Rodón settled for a two-year, $44MM with the Giants going into 2022, eventually opting out and signing with the Yankees for $162MM. Lucas Giolito is hoping to follow his lead, signing a two-year, $38.5MM deal with the Red Sox this winter which allows him to opt out next offseason.

The argument against Snell taking such a path is straightforward. He simply won’t have a better platform year. He just won a Cy Young award, the second of his career. He stayed healthy enough to make 32 starts and log 180 innings, allowing just 2.25 earned runs per nine. His 13.3% walk rate was quite high, but he struck out 31.5% of batters faced and induced grounders at a 44.4% clip. The walks could come down a touch, but he likely won’t sustain a .256 batting average on balls in play nor an 86.7% strand rate. Producing a Cy Young-caliber season in back-to-back years is incredibly hard for even the greatest pitchers in history.

That’s especially true for Snell, who hasn’t been the most consistent pitcher in his career. He also won a Cy Young while with the Rays in 2018, but the years in between his two award-winning campaigns were far less impressive. From 2019 to 2022, he posted a 3.85 ERA over 85 starts. None of those seasons saw him pitch even 130 innings, thanks to the pandemic and various injuries. He went on the injured list in that stretch due to a fractured right toe, loose bodies in his left elbow, gastroenteritis and a couple of left adductor groin strains.

Taking a short-term deal would carry the risk of the baseball gods souring on him and his ERA jumping up over 4.00 this year, or perhaps sustaining another injury and turning in a more limited workload. He’s also 31 years old and would be marketing himself as a 32-year-old a year from now. Based on his excellent 2023 season, MLBTR predicted him for a seven-year, $200MM deal coming into the winter. The Yankees reportedly offered him $150MM over six, but he was hoping for more years and/or an AAV of at least $30MM.

The odds of Snell faring better in next winter’s market are low. Even if he manages to stay healthy and have another great season, he will be joining a market that’s also set to feature the likes of Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber, Zack Wheeler, Walker Buehler, Max Fried, and Max Scherzer, while options/opt-outs could also add Giolito, Justin Verlander, Nathan Eovaldi and Robbie Ray to the market.

The argument for returning to free agency next winter would be that the external conditions that Snell can’t control would vastly improve. It seems fair to conclude that those factors aren’t working in the players’ favor this winter. The collapse of Diamond Sports Group is pushing down the desire of many clubs to spend, particularly into the long term where the uncertainty is greater. Teams such as the Padres, Rangers and Twins have been decidedly less aggressive this winter compared to previous offseasons. This seems to have allowed other clubs to either be patient or address their needs via trade, like the Yankees did.

Beyond that, the Mets have decided to stay away from the top of the market this offseason. They have been plenty active but have spread their money around to various player on short-term deals. They have avoided the marquee free agents, apart from sniffing around the Yoshinobu Yamamoto bidding for a while, depriving the market of one of the bigger spenders from previous offseasons.

Perhaps things will change significantly in the next nine months or so. Maybe MLB will get its desired streaming package together and the finances of the league will vastly improve as a result. Maybe the Mets have a pretty good year and Steve Cohen gets back into spending mode. Maybe the Red Sox get encouraging development from their young players in 2024 and decide to go “full throttle” for real in the coming offseason. A similar path could be ahead of the Tigers this year. Perhaps the sale of the Orioles will be approved and the new owner will want to make a big splash, shaking up the market. Maybe the Nationals or Rockies decide their rebuild has gone on long enough and it’s time to send a signal to that effect. That, however, is a whole lot of “ifs” and “maybes.”

It’s possible it could work out for Snell if he were to pivot to maximizing short-term earnings. That’s what Trevor Bauer did when he signed a three-year, $102MM deal with the Dodgers, an average annual value of $34MM. He had the ability to opt out after the first year with $40MM already banked or after the second year with $85MM already earned.

Instead of focusing on a total guarantee, Snell could push for a record in terms of average annual value. The top mark in that category is currently held by Shohei Ohtani, whose heavily-deferred $700MM deal was valued at $46.06MM annually in terms of present day value by MLB and just under $43.8MM by the MLBPA. If he were to get something like $93MM over two years or $139MM over three, he would vault himself to the top of that list.

Snell is 31 years old and could still get paid in his mid-30s if he stays healthy and effective. Jacob deGrom got $185MM over five years going into his age-35 campaign. Scherzer got $130MM over three years going into his age-37 season. Verlander got $86.67MM going into his age-40 season. At a lesser tier, Sonny Gray just got three years and $75MM going into his age-34 season, slightly better than the $63MM over three years that Chris Bassitt got going into his own age-34 campaign.

If the straight $200MM deal isn’t there for Snell, he’ll have to consider other paths. If he were to take something like the Correa or the Bauer deal, he could get roughly halfway to that $200MM target but with plenty of opportunity to go back to the open market and get the rest. He’s currently encumbered by having rejected a qualifying offer, but that wouldn’t be an issue in future since a player can’t receive a second QO in their career. The QO is generally a small detail when clubs are making $200MM investments, but that would be one thing working in Snell’s favor in future offseasons.

Still, the short-term path is fraught with risk. Baseball history is full of dominant pitchers who suffered some kind of career-altering injury and were never the same again. Predicting such things is impossible, and it’s something that every hurler has to at least think about. There’s also the possibility that the market conditions get worse and not better going forward. That’s why having the guarantee in hand is such a preferable path. As the proverb says, the bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

What do you think? Should Snell take the best guarantee he can get here in the next few weeks or maximize short-term earnings with a path back to free agency in the not-too-distant future? Have your say in the poll below!

Which path should Blake Snell take?

Short-term, high AAV, opt-outs, etc. 53.92% (4,428 votes)

Maximum total guarantee right now 46.08% (3,784 votes)

Total Votes: 8,212

Where Will Jorge Soler Sign?

By Anthony Franco | February 2, 2024 at 12:56pm CDT

Jorge Soler probably didn’t anticipate he’d still be unsigned in February when he declined a $13MM player option with the Marlins. The right-handed slugger is one of the better offensive players to hit the market in a weak free agent class. It’s likely his camp started out looking for a three or even four-year deal.

Whatever Soler’s asking price, it obviously hasn’t materialized to this point. Some of that is a reflection of a generally slow-moving hitting market, but he remains unsigned even as a few comparable players have now come off the board. The recent signings of Joc Pederson and Justin Turner, in particular, could have an adverse effect.

Pederson signed for $12.5MM with the Diamondbacks, while Turner inked a $13MM guarantee with the Blue Jays. Both players now seem set to work as those clubs’ respective primary designated hitters. Arizona and Toronto had each been linked to Soler earlier in the offseason, with the Jays and his camp reportedly maintaining contact as recently as last week. While the Jays could perhaps still make a Soler deal work by giving Turner regular run at third base, that’s a lot tougher than it seemed a few days ago.

There aren’t many other clear fits. Along with Toronto and Arizona, the Mariners, Red Sox and Marlins have been connected to Soler this offseason. Seattle instead reacquired Mitch Haniger and signed Mitch Garver to add right-handed power. Soler admitted a few weeks ago that Miami had shown essentially no interest in a reunion. While Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald subsequently wrote that the sides have had some contact, he suggested the Fish would only seriously consider Soler if his market cratered.

Boston theoretically remains in play. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said a couple weeks ago the team was still open to adding a right-handed hitter to the outfield mix. Soler could split time with Masataka Yoshida between left field and DH. As with Miami, this could require his asking price falling, however. Boston was reportedly reluctant to go beyond two years and something in the $28MM range for Teoscar Hernández. If they value Soler similarly, that’d be a disappointing outcome for the 2023 All-Star.

There are a few other teams that make some sense for a righty-hitting DH, even if they haven’t been prominently tied to Soler. The Mets don’t have a set option at designated hitter. Will Sammon of the Athletic wrote yesterday that the position isn’t a priority for New York, which seems likely to rely on younger hitters like Brett Baty and Mark Vientos. The Nationals have a clear opening but are still amidst a rebuild.

The Giants have prioritized becoming more athletic this offseason; signing a defensively-limited slugger like Soler would cut against that. The Angels have ample payroll space and could consider a primary DH after losing Shohei Ohtani. That doesn’t seem like a priority. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal recently wrote that the Halos were reluctant to tie up the position, instead preferring to leave open the possibility of rotating Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon as needed in a bid to keep them healthier.

The Cubs have Christopher Morel as a DH possibility. The Padres have a vacancy but are facing payroll constraints and have needs in the outfield and rotation. The Twins could use a right-handed hitter and potentially cleared an opening at DH with the Jorge Polanco trade (thereby freeing second base for Edouard Julien). Do they have enough financial breathing room to make a run?

Will the lack of clear fits deal a significant hit to Soler’s market? At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted him for a three-year, $45MM contract. On New Year’s Eve, 62% of respondents predicted Soler would secure a larger guarantee than would J.D. Martinez, who stands as perhaps his top remaining competitor for a DH job. How much should Soler expect to receive and which uniform will he be wearing on Opening Day?

Where Will Soler Sign?

Blue Jays 15.31% (851 votes)

Red Sox 15.26% (848 votes)

Mets 10.89% (605 votes)

Angels 8.96% (498 votes)

Twins 8.17% (454 votes)

Other (specify in comments) 7.59% (422 votes)

Giants 7.52% (418 votes)

Cubs 6.91% (384 votes)

Marlins 6.86% (381 votes)

Padres 5.85% (325 votes)

Brewers 3.62% (201 votes)

Nationals 3.06% (170 votes)

Total Votes: 5,557

For How Much Will Soler Sign?

$15MM or less. 49.73% (1,810 votes)

$16-25MM. 26.57% (967 votes)

$26-35MM. 14.04% (511 votes)

$36-45MM. 5.77% (210 votes)

More than $55MM. 2.14% (78 votes)

$46-55MM. 1.76% (64 votes)

Total Votes: 3,640

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