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MLBTR Polls

Poll: Will The Cardinals Be Able To Trade Nolan Arenado?

By Nick Deeds | January 29, 2025 at 12:21pm CDT

One of the biggest storylines of the offseason has been the Cardinals’ to this point unsuccessful attempts at moving veteran third baseman Nolan Arenado. As the club scales back its payroll and focuses on youth, both the Cardinals and Arenado himself have expressed a desire to move on this winter. In theory, moving an eight-time All-Star who’s just two seasons removed from being an MVP finalist should not be an especially difficult task, but a confluence of factors has made things very complicated for St. Louis’s front office.

The most obvious limiting factor at play is Arenado’s hefty contract. The infielder is due $74MM over the next three seasons, and even with the Rockies poised to pitch in $10MM as a condition of the trade that sent him to St. Louis in the first place, it’s hard to imagine a number of smaller or even mid-market clubs being able to stomach the majority of that salary. Even for clubs who can afford to pay Arenado, it would be understandable if there was some level of pause about committing that much money to a hitter coming off a .272/.325/.394 slash line that was essentially league average (102 wRC+). Arenado’s glove is still enough to make him a roughly three-win player even with his diminished offensive numbers but the division rival Cubs’ difficulties in finding a trade partner when looking to move Cody Bellinger this winter show how depressed the market can become for a three-win player who’s making more than they would fetch on the open market.

Things are further complicated by Arenado’s no-trade clause, which he’s appeared to be very comfortable wielding in order to direct the Cardinals’ negotiation efforts towards clubs he wants to join. Arenado blocked a trade to the Astros in mid-December despite previous belief that he would approve a trade to Houston, in large part because he wanted to see how the club would fortify the roster after trading away Kyle Tucker. That decision to wait and see what was next for Houston backfired, as they pivoted towards signing Christian Walker in a move that likely closed the door on Arenado joining the Astros.

Since the deal with the Astros fell through, the market for Arenado’s services has been exceptionally quiet, with the Cardinals beginning to entertain the possibility that Arenado might be in camp for the start of Spring Training or even still be in the club’s starting lineup on Opening Day. The Yankees reportedly tried to convince the Cardinals to do a swap that would’ve sent Arenado to the Bronx and right-hander Marcus Stroman to the St. Louis, but the Cardinals dismissed that offer without even presenting it to Arenado due to a lack of interest in adding Stroman to the fold. It’s hardly a surprise that they wouldn’t want to take on Stroman and is $18.5MM salary for 2025, but that decision only serves to highlight the financial difficulties the Cardinals face in attempting to move their third baseman.

Even as a trade of Arenado has become less likely as the calendar has flipped to 2025, there are at least some reasons for optimism. Arenado has reportedly become more open-minded about what clubs he would approve a trade to in recent weeks, which could theoretically inspire renewed efforts from clubs like the Mariners, Royals, and Tigers who have some level of interest in him but initially believed that Arenado would block any trade they worked out with the Cardinals. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have indicated that they wouldn’t necessarily need to cut payroll elsewhere if Arenado remains with the club in 2025. It’s at least theoretically possible that’s simply a negotiation tactic, but if the Cardinals are truly not operating under a mandate to cut payroll to a specific level, then perhaps they’ll be more willing to chip in cash to help pay down Arenado’s salary or accept another underwater contract as part of the return.

One obvious catalyst that could spur Arenado talks back to the forefront of the hot stove would be Alex Bregman finding a new home in free agency. Bregman entered the winter ranked as the #3 free agent overall and the top available infielder according to MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list, but he’s found a relatively quiet market to his point in the winter. The Red Sox, Tigers, Astros, Blue Jays, and Cubs are all known to be involved in Bregman’s market to this point on at least some level. While trading Arenado to a division rival like the Cubs is nearly impossible to imagine, the Astros have already moved on, and Toronto may not be competitive enough to satisfy the veteran. The interest is mutual in at least the case of the Red Sox, who currently figure to start Arenado’s longtime Rockies teammate Trevor Story at shortstop on a regular basis this year. If Bregman were to come to a decision, and especially one that saw him end up in Houston, Chicago, or Toronto, it’s easy to imagine Arenado’s market picking up more significantly.

How do MLBTR readers think things will play out? Will Arenado be in another uniform before Opening Day? And if so, will a deal get done before he’s scheduled to report to the Cardinals for Spring Training on February 17? Have your say in the poll below:

Will The Cardinals Trade Arenado This Offseason?
No, he'll be a Cardinal on Opening Day 2025. 64.22% (5,836 votes)
Yes, but he'll be traded after camp begins on February 17. 18.07% (1,642 votes)
Yes, and he'll be traded before Spring Training. 17.72% (1,610 votes)
Total Votes: 9,088
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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls St. Louis Cardinals Nolan Arenado

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Poll: The Mariners’ Dilemma In Dealing From The Rotation

By Nick Deeds | January 28, 2025 at 2:35pm CDT

If there’s one standout trait about the Mariners headed in 2025, it’s their elite rotation; Seattle has the most impressive collection of young, cost-controlled starting pitching talent in the majors right now. Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo combined for more than 700 innings of 3.18 ERA baseball in 2024. Gilbert, who turns 28 in May, is the oldest of the group and the quartet has a combined 17 seasons of team control remaining.

That crop of talented young starters is the envy of the rest of the league, but if there’s a second standout trait about the 2025 Mariners it’s their questionable offense. Cal Raleigh is among the best offensive catchers in the game, but the lineup offers little certainty outside of him. Julio Rodriguez has superstar upside but didn’t show it for much of last year as he entered July hitting just .247/.297/.327. Randy Arozarena managed an excellent 11.7% walk rate down the stretch after being traded to the Mariners midseason, but hit just five home runs in 54 games and was worth just 1.9 fWAR overall last year between his time in Seattle and Tampa.

The trio of Raleigh, Rodriguez, and Arozarena all project to be above average hitters in 2025, but the rest of the lineup is well below average. Victor Robles enjoyed a career year after joining the Mariners midseason last year, but his elite performance in Seattle was carried by a .388 BABIP. Between that extreme good fortune with batted ball luck and his career .236/.311/.356 (81 wRC+) slash line prior to joining the Mariners, it’s hard to expect more than league average production from Robles in 2025. Dylan Moore and Luke Raley both posted solid numbers in 2025 but are platoon players who can’t be relied on in everyday roles, while J.P. Crawford, Mitch Haniger, and Mitch Garver were all well below average hitters in 2024.

The club’s only addition to the offense to this point has been Donovan Solano, who posted solid numbers in 2024 but figures to join Moore and Raley as another part-time player. A combination of Moore, Raley, and Solano seem likely to be capable of handling first and second base, but the club’s lineup still has a gaping hole at the hot corner after non-tendering Josh Rojas and declining Jorge Polanco’s club option. MLBTR explored the third base market as it pertains to the Mariners earlier this month, but none of the free agent options that fit their budget and lower-level trade candidates available are particularly inspiring.

The Mariners have been hesitant to trade from their excellent rotation, only reluctantly listening to offers on pricey veteran Luis Castillo and seemingly shutting down discussions regarding their young core of arms entirely. But shopping a cost-controlled, elite starting pitcher could open up new possibilities for the club to add impact talent that wouldn’t have been available otherwise. The Red Sox reportedly dangled an impact youngster in first baseman Triston Casas in exchange for either Miller or Woo earlier this winter, and it’s easy to imagine rotation-needy clubs offering similarly impactful talent in exchange for a young arm of that caliber.

Dangling Gilbert or Kirby would surely land the Mariners an even more enticing package in exchange given their solid track records of front-of-the-rotation work in the majors to this point. The Orioles, for example, have a deep group of positional talent but are in need of an impact starter. It’s not impossible to imagine Baltimore being willing to part with an established young talent like Jordan Westburg as the headliner in a package for someone like Gilbert, perhaps packaged with a less impactful cost-controlled arm like Dean Kremer to ease the blow to Seattle’s rotation.

Turning away from the Orioles, Mark Vientos of the Mets and Matt McLain of the Reds are among the other high-end, cost-controlled third basemen who the Mariners could theoretically seek as a headliner in a package for one of their top starters, though neither is quite as valuable as Westburg. Of course, such deals are easier to propose than actually execute. While a team like Cincinnati packaging McLain with one of their own rotation arms like Nick Lodolo in order to land an elite talent like Gilbert could make sense on paper, the injury history of both players could give the Mariners plenty of pause about giving up one of their most valuable assets for little in the way of certainty and the Reds may be equally hesitant to offer up two established players with All-Star upside in exchange for one.

That’s just one example, of course, but it’s equally difficult to imagine the Mariners lining up on the right trade package for a player as valuable as Gilbert or Kirby with the vast majority of rival clubs. High-end, cost-controlled starting pitching is the single most desirable asset in the sport, and while fans of rival teams have long dreamed of their GM working out a trade with Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto to bring one of the Mariners’ young aces to town they’d surely start feeling queasy about the possibility upon seeing just how much their team would need to part with in order to land such a coveted talent.

If you were in the Mariners’ shoes, how would you approach the situation? Would you take the same course Dipoto has and simply refuse to seriously entertain offers for your elite group of young pitchers, looking to upgrade the team in other ways like by dealing Castillo? Would you listen to offers while holding firm on a high asking price? Or would you compromise on the value of one of your top assets in order to help bolster an offense in desperate need of impact? Have your say in the poll below:

How Should Seattle Handle Its Young Starting Pitching?
Listen to offers, but only trade one if another team makes a huge offer. 59.76% (3,160 votes)
Hold onto the whole group and build around them. 24.94% (1,319 votes)
Shop them aggressively and work out a deal that improves the lineup no matter the cost. 15.30% (809 votes)
Total Votes: 5,288
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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Seattle Mariners Bryan Woo Bryce Miller George Kirby Logan Gilbert

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Poll: Will Jack Flaherty Or Pete Alonso Sign First?

By Nick Deeds | January 27, 2025 at 10:52am CDT

Just a couple of weeks remain before pitchers and catchers report for spring training, and 32 of MLBTR’s Top 50 MLB Free Agents have signed. That includes 17 of the top 20, with only third baseman Alex Bregman, first baseman Pete Alonso, and right-hander Jack Flaherty still remaining in that upper tier. Bregman’s market has appeared to pick up in recent days, even as he’s stuck to his guns on seeking a long-term contract, but things have remained fairly static for both Alonso and Flaherty.

That lack of movement has come in spite of both players beginning to consider shorter-term offers to at least some degree. In Flaherty’s case, it was reported earlier this month that his camp is “open” to short-term offers after spending much of the winter looking for a five-year deal. Alonso surely entered free agency seeking a long-term pact, but the interest he’s received has been focused on shorter-term arrangements similar to the ones signed by players like Cody Bellinger and Blake Snell last winter. Though he’s open to shorter-term pacts, he rejected a three-year offer from the Mets that guaranteed him around $70MM; his camp had reportedly offered the Mets a three-year deal at a higher annual salary that contained opt-out clauses.

Both Alonso and Flaherty saw their difficult trips through free agency spur candid public comments this weekend. In Flaherty’s case, he delivered those comments himself in an interview where he discussed his “weird” free agency before suggesting that many teams have become somewhat complacent in pursuing just the opportunity to make the postseason rather than trying to construct the best team possible. For Alonso, it was Mets owner Steve Cohen who described “exhausting” negotiations with the club’s longtime first baseman. Cohen noted that he made a “significant” offer to Alonso’s camp but hasn’t been interested in the contract structures being presented by them, calling the deals “highly asymmetric” against the team.

Flaherty and Alonso are two of the more difficult players to evaluate in this winter’s crop of free agents. Flaherty had an undeniably excellent platform season in 2024, pitching to a 3.17 ERA (127 ERA+) in 28 starts between the Tigers and Dodgers while striking out 29.9% of opponents. That was his first time making it to 150 innings in five years, however, as he pitched just 299 innings total over the 2020-23 seasons. That four-year stretch saw Flaherty struggle on a rate basis, as well, with a pedestrian 4.42 ERA (94 ERA+) and 4.36 FIP. In conjunction with high-profile reports around the trade deadline that brought forth concerns regarding Flaherty’s medical records, clubs have been reluctant to commit to the right-hander long term even in spite of his demonstrated upside.

For Alonso, the divisiveness is to be expected for a player with his profile. The slugger’s titanic power allowed him to explode onto the scene back in 2019 when he won Rookie of the Year, crushed 53 homers, and became an instant star. From 2019 to 2022, Alonso slashed .261/.349/.535 (137 wRC+) with 146 homers in 530 games and established himself as a consistent four-win player. The past two seasons have been less productive. He’s hit .229/.324/.480 (121 wRC+) since 2023 with career-worst 34 home runs in 2024. That’s still well above average, but now that Alonso’s bat has seemingly taken a step back from “elite,” his poor defense and relatively pedestrian on-base ability have are more problematic. Alonso’s star power and slugging ability appear to suggest he should be in line for a healthy long-term deal, but the market has moved away from this type of skill set. Were Alonso still in his mid-20s, perhaps it’d be overlooked, but he turned 30 in December.

The start of spring training hasn’t always been enough to convince star players who linger on market to sign, but it’s a strong incentive for players to accelerate talks. Further, the struggles of late signees who miss significant portions of spring training (Jordan Montgomery being the most prominent recent example) could further incentivize players to get a deal in place soon.

Who will be off the board first? Will Alonso be able to reach an agreement that bridges the gap between his peak and more recent production? Or will Flaherty find a team willing to gamble on his excellent 2024 but shaky track record from 2020-23? Have your say in the poll below:

Who Will Sign First?
Jack Flaherty 55.22% (5,159 votes)
Pete Alonso 44.78% (4,184 votes)
Total Votes: 9,343
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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Jack Flaherty Pete Alonso

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Poll: Will The Yankees Be Able To Trade Marcus Stroman?

By Nick Deeds | January 24, 2025 at 1:23pm CDT

When AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil established himself as a foundational piece for the Yankees’ rotation, that left the club with an interesting dilemma: the club had more starters than space in the rotation. While trading Nestor Cortes to the Brewers in the deal that brought closer Devin Williams into the fold helped to unclog the rotation somewhat, the deal only came after the Yankees had already added Max Fried. With Fried joining Gil, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, Clarke Schmidt, and Marcus Stroman in the rotation mix, the club still has more starters than rotation spots available.

That’s led to plenty of speculation that another trade could be coming down the pipeline for the Yankees, with Stroman sticking out as the likeliest to move. The club has reportedly been shopping the veteran righty throughout the winter, and is said to be willing to pay down a portion of the veteran’s $18.5MM salary in order to get a deal done. It’s a sensible goal for the Yankees, given thatt those dollars could be reallocated to help bolster second or third base. Assuming Jazz Chisholm Jr. moves back to second base, some combination of DJ LeMahieu, Oswaldo Cabrera, and Oswald Peraza project to man the hot corner.

Unfortunately for the Yankees, Stroman is coming off the worst season of his career. The veteran posted a decent 4.31 ERA (95 ERA+) in 154 2/3 innings of work. That’s serviceable production for the back of a rotation, but a look under the hood reveals some worrying trends. Stroman posted career-worst numbers in terms of strikeout rate (16.7%), walk rate (8.9%), groundball rate (49.2%), and barrel rate (6.7%). That across-the-board decline in skills combined with his fastball velocity being nearly two ticks down from 2023 left him with a FIP that was 10% worse than league average and a 4.74 SIERA that was better than only Griffin Canning, Tyler Anderson, and Chris Flexen among all pitchers (min. 150 innings). While Stroman has been a fairly consistent three-WAR player throughout his career to this point, the wide-ranging decline in peripherals reduces optimism for a substantial bounceback in 2025 — his age-34 season.

Recent deals for veteran back-of-the-rotation arms suggest Stroman is overpaid, but perhaps not egregiously so. Alex Cobb landed a $15MM guarantee after making just three starts in 2024. Tomoyuki Sugano is 35 years old and has never thrown an MLB pitch; he commanded $13MM nonetheless. His 41-year-old rotation-mate in Baltimore, Charlie Morton, secured a $15MM guarantee of his own. It shouldn’t be all that difficult for the Yankees to find a taker for Stroman if they were able to pay down his salary to, say, the $10-12MM range that more well-regarded back-end veterans like Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn and others have been able to find in free agency in recent years.

That would seemingly allow the Yankees plenty of flexibility to sign an infielder, but one other obstacle to a Stroman deal is the veteran’s 2026 vesting option. If the right-hander pitches 140 innings in 2025, his 2026 option will vest and become an $18MM player option for the 2026 season. It seems unlikely that Stroman would turn that option down without a major bounceback season, meaning that an acquiring team that wishes to avoid that outcome would have to find a way to limit him to just 140 innings this year. That’s far from impossible, seeing as the righty posted back-to-back seasons with fewer innings than that benchmark with the Cubs in 2022 and ’23, but barring significant IL time, Stroman’s new club may need to move him to the bullpen at some point.

How do MLBTR readers think things will shake out? Will the Yankees be able to get a Stroman deal done? And if so, how much of his salary will they have to pay down to make a trade happen? Have your say in the poll below:

Will The Yankees Deal Marcus Stroman?
They'll trade Stroman while paying down at least half his salary. 41.00% (4,428 votes)
Stroman will be a Yankee on Opening Day 2025 29.58% (3,195 votes)
They'll trade Stroman while paying down less than half his salary. 27.32% (2,951 votes)
They'll trade Stroman without eating any money. 2.10% (227 votes)
Total Votes: 10,801
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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls New York Yankees Marcus Stroman

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Poll: Where Will Jurickson Profar Sign?

By Leo Morgenstern | January 23, 2025 at 12:11pm CDT

After more than a decade in the majors, Jurickson Profar finally lived up to his top prospect billing in 2024, his age-31 season. The switch-hitter slashed .280/.380/.459 with 24 home runs, 10 stolen bases, and an NL-leading 18 hit-by-pitches. He did just about everything well, posting a high walk rate, a low strikeout rate, and above-average power numbers. His 139 wRC+ ranked 15th among qualified batters, while his 4.3 FanGraphs WAR placed him among the top 25 position players in either league. Even better, his Statcast expected metrics matched his actual output; his .364 xwOBA put him in the 92nd percentile of MLB hitters. With numbers like that, it was no surprise that Profar started for the NL All-Stars in the summer and collected a Silver Slugger at the end of the year.

Profar turns 32 next month, and his age, along with his spotty track record from 2012-23, will limit his earning potential in free agency. That’s why he ranked below fellow outfielders Anthony Santander and Teoscar Hernández on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list, despite outperforming both of them in wRC+ and fWAR last season. Nonetheless, the possibility that he could repeat his All-Star performance in 2025 should entice several suitors, and for that reason, Profar is easily the top outfielder still available on the free agent market. What’s more, his ability to hit from both sides of the plate, along with the fact that he is not saddled with the qualifying offer or seeking a particularly long-term commitment (he’s eyeing a three-year deal) should make him a good fit for any team in need of an impact bat in a corner outfield spot.

Indeed, with Santander off the market, the Profar rumor mill has picked up in recent days. According to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, “a number of teams” are interested in his services, including the Blue Jays and Astros. After signing Santander, Toronto is set in the corner outfield department with Santander in left field and George Springer in right. However, the Jays could still use another bat, and they could facilitate the addition of Profar by rotating Profar, Santander, and Springer between the corner outfield and the DH spots. GM Ross Atkins recently made it clear the Blue Jays have money left to spend this winter as they strive to return to contention after a disappointing 2024. There is no doubt that Profar would help them move toward that goal.

As for the Astros, they could desperately use some more thump in the outfield after trading Kyle Tucker to the Cubs. With manager Joe Espada on the record that Houston would like to limit Yordan Alvarez’s playing time in the field, the club’s current outfield options include Jake Meyers, Chas McCormick, Mauricio Dubón, and Taylor Trammell. As I wrote back in December, “It’s not hyperbole to say that could be one of the worst offensive outfields among contending teams.” Thus, it’s easy to see how Profar fits into the picture. The only question is if GM Dana Brown has the payroll flexibility to make such a signing. Earlier this month, KPRC’s Ari Alexander reported the Astros were “unlikely” to sign Santander because it would require a contract that would put them “well into the competitive balance tax for the second consecutive season.” Profar won’t command quite as high of a salary, but the Astros are already above the first luxury tax threshold as it is (per RosterResource). So, Brown might need to make a trade to clear some payroll before he can pursue any more free agent additions. Offloading Ryan Pressly’s $14MM salary from the books would surely help.

While Feinsand did not name any other suitors, the Royals are one more team that has been linked to Profar this winter. Joel Sherman of the New York Post connected the two sides back in November, writing that the Royals had “their eye on” the left fielder. However, there hasn’t been much smoke to that fire since, and Sherman’s report came before Kansas City traded for Jonathan India. Still, the Royals continue to seek another impact bat for their lineup. Although reporting has suggested they’d prefer to work on the trade market – they inquired about Nolan Arenado earlier in the offseason – signing Profar is another route they could take.

Two further landing spots to consider are the Angels and Tigers, both of whom were reportedly interested in Santander before he signed with the Blue Jays. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press described the Angels as one of the “frontrunners” to sign Santander, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post also mentioned Santander when he linked the Angels to Pete Alonso, acknowledging that the outfielder was a better positional fit. The Angels currently have Taylor Ward and Jo Adell penciled into the corner outfield spots, but Ward is a potential trade candidate (even if rumors of his availability may have been overblown) and Adell has hardly done enough to warrant a guaranteed starting job. Anthony Franco recently wrote about what the Angels could do next in a post for MLBTR Front Office subscribers, and he touched on Profar as a potential target.

Meanwhile, Petzold described Santander as a potential backup plan for the Tigers if they could not sign third baseman Alex Bregman. Considering that talks between Bregman and the Tigers are reportedly “at a standstill,” perhaps Detroit will pivot to Profar. After all, if the Tigers had interest in one switch-hitting corner outfielder, it stands to reason they’d have interest in another. While Riley Greene has one corner outfield spot on lock, manager A.J. Hinch could play Profar in the other corner. In addition, Profar could occasionally platoon at DH with Kerry Carpenter, who has struggled against left-handed pitching so far in his young career.

It would also be foolish to count out a reunion between Profar and the Padres. San Diego clearly likes what he brings to the table, having acquired him four separate times, first in a trade and then as a free agent in 2021, ’23, and ’24.  Moreover, Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller worked in the Rangers’ international scouting department back when the team first signed Profar in 2009. It’s hard to imagine Preller could have lost interest now, given that Profar is coming off the best season of his career. On top of that, the Padres certainly still have space for him, having made no moves as of yet to replace his bat in the lineup. The big question, however, is if San Diego can afford to pay what Profar is seeking. The Padres are reportedly trying to reduce their payroll from its current $208MM projection (per RosterResource), which means they might need to offload some salary before considering any upgrades in free agency.

One more team that showed interest in Santander this winter was the Red Sox, but Chris Cotillo of MassLive suggests Boston is not actively pursuing Profar. That makes sense in light of manager Alex Cora’s recent comments that he hopes to use Masataka Yoshida in the outfield more often; Boston’s outfield picture is already quite crowded. In addition to Yoshida, the Red Sox have a pair of young, talented corner outfielders in Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu. They also plan to use Ceddanne Rafaela as an outfielder “as much as possible” instead of shuttling him back and forth between shortstop and center field. On top of that, the Red Sox have top prospect Roman Anthony to consider. The promising outfielder could be ready for his MLB debut at some point in 2025.

Meanwhile, the Yankees and Mets were both serious suitors for Hernández earlier this winter, but the Yankees filled their hole in the outfield with Cody Bellinger, while the Mets presumably addressed that need by signing Jesse Winker. Other contenders that have already addressed needs in the corner outfield include the Orioles, Phillies, Cubs, and Dodgers. Notably, the Braves are one team not on that list. While they have not been linked to any notable free agent outfielders so far this winter, they were thought to be exploring the outfield market back in November. They could certainly use another outfielder if Ronald Acuña Jr. opens the season on the injured list, and even once Acuña returns, they might prefer an upgrade over Jarred Kelenic. According to RosterResource, their projected payroll currently sits about $31MM below last year’s final figure, which should give them plenty of flexibility to offer Profar the kind of contract he’s looking for.

So, where do MLBTR readers think Profar will ultimately end up? Have your say in the poll below:

Where Will Jurickson Profar Sign?
Braves 25.51% (2,609 votes)
Padres 18.58% (1,900 votes)
Another team 16.59% (1,697 votes)
Blue Jays 13.62% (1,393 votes)
Astros 10.65% (1,089 votes)
Angels 6.36% (650 votes)
Royals 4.54% (464 votes)
Tigers 4.16% (425 votes)
Total Votes: 10,227
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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Jurickson Profar

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Poll: Spencer Torkelson’s Future With The Tigers

By Leo Morgenstern | January 22, 2025 at 4:00pm CDT

When the Tigers took Spencer Torkelson with the first overall pick in 2020, Baseball America described him as “the safest pick at the top of the draft” and a potential “middle-of-the-order force,” à la Pete Alonso. And keep in mind, they weren’t talking about present-day Alonso, who is struggling to find a market in free agency, but rather a younger version who had just set the MLB rookie record with 53 home runs in his debut campaign.

Torkelson tore up the minor leagues in 2021, rising from High-A to Triple-A and mashing at every level. Ahead of his rookie season in 2022, he was a consensus top-10 prospect in the game. Most sources, including Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, and The Athletic’s Keith Law placed him in the top five. The only players who ranked ahead of him on every one of those lists were Adley Rutschman and Bobby Witt Jr. Suffice it to say, the future was bright for the young first baseman.

Yet, the bright lights of the big leagues proved too much for a 22-year-old Torkelson. He didn’t just fail to reach his sky-high ceiling. Rather, his supposedly sturdy floor completely collapsed. In 110 games, the righty batter barely managed a .200 average and a .600 OPS. He hit just eight home runs, and his .117 isolated power was well below average, especially for a first baseman. While his expected stats were slightly more promising, a 34th-percentile xwOBA could hardly assuage the very real concerns about his lifeless bat. What’s more, a mid-season demotion back to Triple-A did little to help. He was surprisingly ineffective in the minors, too, posting a .738 OPS and 100 wRC+ in 35 games.

Torkelson got off to a similarly poor start in 2023, but he turned things around late in the year. Through the end of July, he had a .707 OPS and 94 wRC+, with 15 home runs in 104 games. Those were better numbers than he posted in 2022 but still disappointing for an MLB first baseman and well below expectations. Then, from August 1 through the end of the season, Torkelson finally seemed to tap into his full potential. He crushed 11 doubles and 16 home runs in 55 games, good for a .282 ISO. His .855 OPS and 133 wRC+ were similarly impressive, and his .364 xwOBA was right in line with his .362 wOBA. The sample size was small, but considering everything Torkelson had done in college and the minors to become a top-10 prospect, it was hard not to think the powerful slugger was finally becoming everything the Tigers hoped he could be.

Then came 2024. Over the first two months of this past season, Torkelson looked like his rookie self again, slashing .201/.266/.330 with a 71 wRC+. That led to another minor league demotion, and things didn’t look much better at Triple-A. The man who terrorized minor league pitchers in 2021 was nowhere to be seen, and he put up a .799 OPS and 108 wRC+ in 58 games. Torkelson looked better upon his return to the Tigers in August, but his late-season performance wasn’t as convincing as it was in 2023. His 125 wRC+ was powered by a high BABIP and a wOBA more than 20 points above his xwOBA. While his 11.3% walk rate was a promising sign, his 32.5% strikeout rate suggested he was still often overmatched against big league pitching. That certainly seemed to be the case in the playoffs, when he went just 4-for-21 with an 82 wRC+ in seven postseason games.

Three seasons into his major league career, Torkelson’s top prospect shine has worn off. In close to 1,500 plate appearances, he has failed to establish himself as an above-average hitter, let alone an everyday first baseman. The Tigers could afford to let him play through his issues during their rebuild, but now that they have eyes on contention, it will be harder to justify giving regular reps to such a mediocre bat. To that point, they seem to have already replaced him on the roster. After signing Gleyber Torres to play second base, Detroit’s president of baseball operations Scott Harris confirmed that Colt Keith will be the team’s primary first baseman in 2025. With Keith at first base and Kerry Carpenter at DH, it’s hard to see how Torkelson fits in. Torkelson was once a more promising prospect than either of them, but Carpenter has mashed at the major league level (career 136 wRC+), and the Tigers showed their faith in Keith with a six-year, $28.6425MM extension before he’d even made his MLB debut. Without a guaranteed contract or much big league success, Torkelson is on the outside looking in.

If Torkelson plays well this spring, the Tigers could still find a way to get him in the lineup. To that point, Harris says he told Torkelson, “If you have a big offseason and a big spring training, there’s a role for you on this team.” At the very least, the righty batter could be the short side of a platoon with the lefty-batting Carpenter. Last year, manager A.J. Hinch tried to shield Carpenter from southpaws, against whom he has a career 69 wRC+. Meanwhile, Torkelson has a 111 wRC+ in 357 career PA against opposite-handed pitching. Keith is a left-handed hitter, too, so Torkelson could also spell him at first base with a tough lefty on the bump. If top prospect Jace Jung struggles (and the Tigers don’t add another third baseman in free agency), the team could be forced to move either Keith or Torres over to third, freeing up playing time for Torkelson at first base. Finally, Detroit could also consider giving Carpenter more run in the outfield if Torkelson is hitting well enough to deserve the reps at DH.

Of course, that all relies on Torkelson doing enough to convince the Tigers to give him another serious chance. An alternative route, and perhaps the best possible outcome for everyone involved, would be trading Torkelson to a team that can offer him a more regular role. Not only might a change of scenery do him some good, but consistent playing time at a consistent position can only help as he tries to figure things out at the plate. One can understand why Detroit might be hesitant to sell low on a former first-overall pick. On the other hand, it will be hard for him to increase his trade value when he isn’t playing every day. If the Tigers trade him now, at least they could guarantee some sort of return. A true rebuilding club like the Marlins could offer Torkelson the most playing time, but other teams that could be looking for an inexpensive right-handed first base/DH bat include the Mariners, Padres, Pirates, and Twins. Torkelson still has an option, so sending him back down to Triple-A Toledo is another possibility.

So, where do MLBTR readers think Spencer Torkelson will be come Opening Day? Share your thoughts by voting in the poll below!

Where Will Spencer Torkelson Be On Opening Day?
Traded to a new organization 34.33% (2,860 votes)
With the Triple-A Toledo Mud Hens 25.92% (2,159 votes)
On the Tigers' bench 22.21% (1,850 votes)
In the Tigers' starting lineup 17.54% (1,461 votes)
Total Votes: 8,330
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Detroit Tigers MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Spencer Torkelson

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Poll: Who Would You Elect From This Year’s Hall Of Fame Ballot?

By Nick Deeds | January 21, 2025 at 1:08pm CDT

The results of this year’s round of Hall of Fame voting will be announced at 5PM CT this evening. Ichiro Suzuki, C.C. Sabathia, and Billy Wagner appear to stand the best chance among this year’s crop of players to join the immortal ranks of Cooperstown alongside Dick Allen and Dave Parker this summer. That doesn’t mean they’re the only players worth considering, however. 28 names in total are on this year’s ballot, and while we won’t go over every single name, plenty of players have solid cases to be elected.

Suzuki has a chance to go into the Hall as its second-ever unanimously elected player, and it’s easy to see why. The ten-time All-Star won both the Rookie of the Year and MVP awards in the AL back in 2001, his age-27 season, after a nine-season stint in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. He went on to play parts of 19 seasons in the majors, collect 3,089 hits and steal 509 bases and win ten Gold Glove awards, three Silver Slugger awards, and two AL batting titles. Combined with his years playing overseas, Suzuki has 4,367 hits over a 28-year career in professional baseball.

Sabathia, meanwhile, won’t get in unanimously but stands a good chance of making it in during his first year of eligibility. The southpaw played 19 seasons in the majors, with a solid career 3.74 ERA (116 ERA+) to go along with 3,093 strikeouts and 251 wins at the big league level. The six-time All-Star won the AL Cy Young award with Cleveland back in 2007 and went on to finish in the top 5 of Cy Young award voting four more times throughout his career. He eventually won the 2009 World Series with the Yankees, earning ALCS MVP honors along the way as he pitched to a 1.98 ERA while striking out 32 batters in 36 1/3 innings of work across five starts during that postseason run.

As for Wagner, the lefty enters his final year of eligibility after missing election last year by just a few votes. The reliever pitched just 903 innings over his 16 years in the majors, but the seven-time All-Star was undeniably dominant when on the mound with a career 2.31 ERA (187 ERA+). He also collected 422 saves throughout his career, making him one of just eight players to record 400 saves in MLB history, while his career 33.2% strikeout rate would not only be by far the best among Hall of Fame relievers but trails only active closers Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, and Craig Kimbrel among all 265 relievers in MLB history with at least 600 innings pitched in their careers.

Aside from the top three names, the only players with a realistic shot at election this year are Carlos Beltrán and Andruw Jones. A nine-time All-Star and the 1999 AL Rookie of the Year, Beltrán played 20 years in the majors and during that time racked up 2,725 hits, slugged 435 homers, and stole 312 bases. During his peak seasons with the Royals and Mets from 2001 to 2008, Beltrán was worth 47 bWAR and 46.6 fWAR as he slashed .282/.363/.513 while collecting five All-Star appearances, three Gold Glove awards, and two Silver Slugger awards. However, his case may be complicated by his involvement in the Astros’ 2017 sign-stealing scandal.

Meanwhile, Jones is a 10-time Gold Glove award winner and is generally considered to be one of the best defensive center fielders of all time if not the very best. From 1997 to 2007, Jones combined that generational defense with strong offensive numbers, hitting .263/.343/.498 with 363 homers during that time en route to 60.9 bWAR and 64.2 fWAR.

While other players on the ballot don’t have a clear shot towards election this year, that hardly means they lack legitimate cases for the Hall of their own. Chase Utley struggled to stay on the field throughout the later years of his 16-year career, but his peak seasons from 2005 to 2011 are impossible to argue with as he slashed .293/.383/.513 with five All-Star appearances, four Silver Slugger awards, and three top-ten MVP finishes en route to 49.3 bWAR and 47.7 fWAR over that seven-year period.

Álex Rodríguez, Manny Ramírez, and Andy Pettitte all have impeccable arguments for the Hall in terms of stats but have had their candidacies bogged down by their PED usage. Félix Hernández has an unbelievable peak with a 2.90 ERA (134 ERA+), six All-Star appearances, an AL Cy Young award and five other top-ten finishes in Cy Young balloting during an eight-year stretch from 2008 to 2015 but pitched his final MLB game at the age of 33. Bobby Abreu lacks the awards and accolades of his peers on the ballot but was a career .291/.395/.475 hitter across 18 years in the majors. That .395 on-base percentage would be tied for 41st among 171 Hall of Fame hitters.

Meanwhile, a number of players are currently fighting to stay on the ballot for next year. Francisco Rodríguez, Brian McCann, Russell Martin, Ian Kinsler, and Torii Hunter have all received votes this cycle but have less than 10% of the vote among publicly revealed ballots. Anyone who finishes below 5% in the final results is kicked off the ballot, and of that quintet only Rodríguez is above that benchmark on publicly revealed ballots.

If you had a Hall of Fame ballot, who would you vote for? Have your say in the poll below, which allows you to vote for multiple players. As a reminder, Hall of Fame voters may only select a maximum of ten names on their ballots.

If you had a Hall of Fame ballot, who would you vote for this year?
Ichiro Suzuki 16.59% (11,990 votes)
CC Sabathia 11.34% (8,190 votes)
Billy Wagner 10.86% (7,844 votes)
Andruw Jones 8.74% (6,317 votes)
Alex Rodriguez 6.94% (5,014 votes)
Carlos Beltran 6.73% (4,861 votes)
Manny Ramirez 6.64% (4,799 votes)
Felix Hernandez 5.50% (3,977 votes)
Andy Pettitte 4.70% (3,399 votes)
Chase Utley 3.86% (2,786 votes)
Dustin Pedroia 2.52% (1,819 votes)
Bobby Abreu 2.07% (1,499 votes)
Omar Vizquel 2.05% (1,478 votes)
David Wright 1.95% (1,412 votes)
Jimmy Rollins 1.94% (1,401 votes)
Torii Hunter 1.48% (1,069 votes)
Mark Buerhle 1.46% (1,058 votes)
Francisco Rodriguez 1.30% (938 votes)
Brian McCann 0.60% (431 votes)
Russell Martin 0.47% (343 votes)
Ben Zobrist 0.38% (277 votes)
Troy Tulowitzki 0.38% (276 votes)
Ian Kinsler 0.36% (258 votes)
Adam Jones 0.34% (245 votes)
Curtis Granderson 0.33% (236 votes)
Hanley Ramirez 0.18% (131 votes)
Fernando Rodney 0.16% (119 votes)
Carlos Gonzalez 0.12% (87 votes)
Total Votes: 72,254
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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls

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Poll: Would You Trade The 2027 MLB Season For A Salary Cap?

By Tim Dierkes | January 19, 2025 at 11:31pm CDT

The past weekend seemed like something of a tipping point for fans of teams other than the Dodgers.  The Dodgers were able to land Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki on Friday for a mere $6.5MM bonus, given the restrictions on signing international players under the age of 25.  While Sasaki will enter the arbitration system for the final three years of team control from 2028-30, he still comes with incredible surplus value.

Then on Sunday, the Dodgers put an exclamation point on their weekend by signing the best reliever on the market, Tanner Scott, to the fifth-largest free agent contract ever at the position.  And yes, there was significant deferred money in Scott’s contract, but that’s a poll topic for another day.

We’ll hear from Sasaki soon enough, but surely the Dodgers’ previous monstrous offseason signings of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto helped lure him to Los Angeles.  Since the 2023 season ended, the club has also added Teoscar Hernandez (twice), Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and others, while brokering extensions for Glasnow, Will Smith, and trade pickup Tommy Edman.

It’s not easy to buy an MLB dynasty.  Others have tried, but the sport hasn’t seen back-to-back World Series winners since the 1998-2000 Yankees accomplished a three-peat.  Now, with a 12-team playoff format, that might be even harder for the Dodgers to pull off.

Most MLB teams don’t open their books to the public, so we don’t know how many clubs would be profitable at the $370MM payroll the Dodgers currently sport.  It’s fair to assume small market clubs could not support that type of payroll, even though some of them receive in excess of $150MM between national revenues and revenue sharing each year.

Some might argue that because of the nature of the MLB playoffs, the sport is already in good shape in terms of parity.  But because the Dodgers bring in so much revenue (particularly through their TV deal), they have advantages in acquiring players that many markets simply cannot match.  Maybe the Dodgers can’t guarantee a string of championships, but they haven’t won fewer than 98 regular season games since 2018 (extrapolating the pandemic season).  Their payroll is obviously part of their success.

The drumbeat from fans, at least on social media, seems to be getting louder for a salary cap.  It’s hard to argue: if all 30 teams were capped at spending, say, $200MM on player payroll, the regular season playing field would be leveled significantly.  There would be star free agents the Dodgers, Mets, and other big markets simply could not sign.  The salary cap would be tied to league revenue, and would rise accordingly.  I’m not convinced a salary cap (and floor) is the only way to improve parity, but it’s the most obvious one.

MLB owners have wanted a salary cap for a long time.  You may recall that was the reason for the 1994 strike, which cost us the World Series that year.  The players did not give in to that demand, though they did allow for the first luxury tax in subsequent years.

The thing about a salary cap is that it would almost certainly increase parity, but as the name states, it would also cap player earnings short of what the free market allows.  The expectation is that a salary cap would reduce the total amount of money earned by players, although commissioner Rob Manfred might argue that point.  That’s why MLB is not an unbiased source when they talk about how a salary cap is needed for competitive balance.

Baseball has always had the strongest union in sports, almost entirely because of one man: Marvin Miller.  Miller essentially created the MLBPA in 1966.  He ran it until 1982 and deserves credit for the advent of arbitration and free agency in MLB.  He also rallied players to go on strike or endure lockouts to ensure they only made forward progress, and did not accept a salary cap or even a luxury tax.

While the MLBPA has ceded ground since Miller retired, the sport still does not have a salary cap.  Baseball was able to avoid work stoppages since the ’94 strike, until owners locked out the players after the 2021 CBA expired in December.  Though negotiations often seemed perilous, ultimately a new five-year agreement was reached in March of 2022 and no games were lost.  The two sides seemed enough at odds that many observers wondered if we’ll simply now get a lockout every five years.

In the wake of the most recent CBA and given turmoil with television rights, MLB put together an “economic reform committee.”  The current CBA expires on December 1st, 2026.  It’s not hard to picture owners banding together for their strongest salary cap push since Bud Selig’s in ’94.  Assuming the MLBPA has enough solidarity under Tony Clark and Bruce Meyer to match its legacy, it follows that players might not give in, and some or even all of the 2027 season could be cancelled.

That leaves me with two questions for tonight’s poll.  (I apologize for my lack of clarity in the initial version of this poll: assume a salary cap comes with a floor).

Do you want a salary cap in the next MLB CBA?
Yes 67.20% (24,589 votes)
No 32.80% (12,000 votes)
Total Votes: 36,589

 

And then the next question:

Are you willing to lose the entire 2027 MLB season for a salary cap?
Yes 50.18% (13,865 votes)
No 49.82% (13,764 votes)
Total Votes: 27,629
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Los Angeles Dodgers MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls

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Poll: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s Future With The Blue Jays

By Nick Deeds | January 17, 2025 at 3:07pm CDT

While the Blue Jays have been involved in pursuits of a number of major players this winter ranging from Juan Soto to Corbin Burnes to Roki Sasaki, the number one question hanging over the club’s head this offseason is the same one that’s been at the forefront of fans’ minds for years now: will the Blue Jays be able to extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. before he reaches free agency? And, if not, what will the club do about it? The question is now more urgent than ever, with just over nine months left until Guerrero is set to file for free agency.

Even Guerrero’s relatively short remaining window of team control doesn’t fully illustrate how quickly the Blue Jays are reaching a crossroads, however. Guerrero has made clear that he set a deadline for negotiations of the first full day of Spring Training with the club’s front office. For the Blue Jays, the first full-squad workout is February 18, almost exactly a month away. If club brass and Guerrero’s camp are going to get a deal done ahead of that deadline, they’ll need to make a great deal of progress over the next month: reporting yesterday indicated that the sides last had extension discussions before Christmas, and it seems as though there was a significant gap in negotiations when the sides withdrew from the negotiating table for the holidays.

According to Guerrero, the Jays have offered him a deal in the vicinity of $340MM, and that this offer came prior to Soto signing with the Mets on a record-shattering $765MM deal last month. Meanwhile, reports have suggested that Guerrero’s asking price is believed to be above $400MM and potentially close to half a billion dollars. That’s no insignificant difference. That gap in negotiations hasn’t led the club to shop Guerrero on the open market to this point, and the club has signaled that they have every intention of keeping their star in the fold for the 2025 season.

That hasn’t stopped teams from inquiring, however. Recent reporting suggested that the Mets have checked in with the Blue Jays on the possibility of a Guerrero trade. That conversation doesn’t seem to have garnered significant traction to this point, and reports have indicated that the Jays would need to be bowled over by an offer that brings in a bigger haul than Soto did last winter to even consider moving Guerrero. That’s an incredibly steep asking price for any rental player, though of course it should be noted that last winter’s Soto deal and this offseason’s Kyle Tucker deal have suggested that some clubs are willing to pay exorbitant prices for star players even when they have just one season of control remaining.

It goes without saying that if the Jays see a path towards an extension with Guerrero before his deadline next month, they seem all but certain to pursue that rather than consider dealing him. Should negotiations fall through, however, it will be worth wondering whether or not the club will be able to build a contender around him in his final year before free agency. Landing Sasaki would surely help with that goal, and the Jays clearly have money to spend in free agency. They’ve been attached to top remaining free agents like Jack Flaherty, Anthony Santander, and Pete Alonso in recent weeks. All of those names would significantly improve the club, but it’s unlikely any of them individually would do enough to push the Jays from fifth place in the AL East into a playoff spot without significant rebound seasons from established players like Bo Bichette, Kevin Gausman, and Alejandro Kirk who struggled to produce last year.

If an extension can’t be reached and the Jays don’t have confidence in their ability to build a winning club for 2025, it’s easy to make the argument that the club should at least see what Guerrero could bring back on the trade market. If they find an offer that eclipses the package the Padres received for Soto last winter, it’s easy to imagine that greatly accelerating the club’s return to competitiveness in a post-Guerrero era. That would certainly be preferable to missing the playoffs again in 2025 with Guerrero on the roster and losing him for nothing more than a compensatory draft pick in free agency next winter, though trading Guerrero before the season begins would make a playoff run this year all the more difficult to imagine.

The club could also give itself more time to make a decision by supplementing the roster further throughout the winter in an effort to compete this year and then re-evaluating at the trade deadline. With that said, Guerrero would surely be far less attractive as a trade candidate with just two months of team control remaining. His impact for an acquiring club in 2025 would be reduced if they only had him for the stretch run, and perhaps more importantly it’s all but impossible to imagine him entertaining an extension with a new club that close to free agency. The star slugger is sure to garner a significantly larger return if traded before the season begins, but that would all but close the door on playoff baseball in Toronto this year.

How do MLBTR readers think the situation will play out? Will Guerrero and the Blue Jays come to an agreement on an extension before his deadline next month? And if not, will the Jays trade their star slugger before Opening Day or enter the season with him on the roster? Have your say in the poll below!

What's Next for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays?
The sides won't agree to an extension, but Guerrero will still be a Blue Jay on Opening Day. 63.91% (5,669 votes)
The sides will agree to an extension this winter. 19.47% (1,727 votes)
Guerrero will be traded before Opening Day. 16.62% (1,474 votes)
Total Votes: 8,870
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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Toronto Blue Jays Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

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Poll: Will Pete Alonso Return To The Mets?

By Nick Deeds | January 16, 2025 at 9:49am CDT

The first base market started to move rapidly late in 2024, as players like Josh Naylor, Paul Goldschmidt, Nathaniel Lowe, and Carlos Santana came off the trade and free agent markets. That movement did not work its way up to the top of the market at the time, but since the New Year started, buzz surrounding Pete Alonso’s free agency has grown louder. Alonso’s camp reportedly approached the Mets to pitch a three-year deal with opt-outs last week. The two parties have since discussed that structure but still face a gap in numbers. Notably, the Mets are said to be pressing for a definitive conclusion sooner than later.

That Alonso’s market has seemingly dropped into the short-term, high annual salary range is notable but not necessarily a shock, given how frequently that approach has been taken by stars who linger on the market in recent years. Shortstop Carlos Correa’s first deal with the Twins is perhaps the most notable example, but it’s become more widespread in the years since that deal with Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery, and Matt Chapman signing deals of that nature last offseason alone. This winter, free agents like Jack Flaherty and Anthony Santander have reportedly joined Alonso in beginning to consider short-term offers.

For a Mets club that has tended to avoid making long-term commitments to players already in their 30s (particularly since hiring David Stearns as president of baseball operations), the idea of getting Alonso back in the fold on a short-term deal has to be appealing. It would hardly be a surprise if Alonso was hoping to land a deal that guarantees him $30MM or more annually, or at least is front-loaded in such a way that he could opt out of the deal next winter and walk away with $30MM or more — similar to Bellinger’s three-year deal with the Cubs. The Mets are surely hoping to minimize risk on their end to avoid a situation where Alonso opts in and becomes an anchor on the roster.

While the Mets have long been considered the favorite and most logical landing spot, they aren’t the only club with interest in Alonso. The Red Sox, Blue Jays, Angels, and Giants have all been connected to Alonso since the new year began. Most of that quartet already has a set first baseman, but none sported a top-ten offense in MLB last year and each of the Giants, Angels, and Blue Jays were below-average in terms of home run power. That makes it easy to envision a slugger of Alonso’s caliber making a difference for any of those clubs, even in the event that he doesn’t return to the more well-rounded form he flashed in 2022 as a four-WAR player with a .352 on-base percentage.

The Mets, meanwhile, could theoretically consider a number of alternatives. In particular, Santander has been connected to the Mets as a potential backup. A few budget options seem to be under consideration as well, including a reunion with Jesse Winker. Should the Mets pivot towards adding in the outfield, they could end up using a mix of internal options at the infield corners. Mark Vientos can move to first base, while Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, and Luisangel Acuna could vie for time at the hot corner. Alex Bregman is still out there in free agency, and Nolan Arenado is on the trade market. But if the Mets can’t find three-year terms with Alonso that are to their liking, it’d be a surprise if they signed another 30-year-old infielder who’s seeking a long-term deal (Bregman) or traded for a 34-year-old infielder who’s still owed $74MM (Arenado).

Given the imperfect fit for Alonso with many of his other suitors and the Mets’ lack of obvious proven alternatives, the most straightforward way for both sides to get what they want is to close the gap in negotiations and work out a deal. That’s easier said than done, of course, and until a deal is in place, another club like the Giants or Blue Jays could swoop in with a compelling short-term offer of its own. If Alonso remains unsigned into spring training, an injury to a contending club’s first baseman could open further possibilities.

How do MLBTR readers think things will play out between the two sides going forward?

Will Pete Alonso Be A Met In 2025?
Yes, he'll re-sign with the Mets. 55.91% (6,485 votes)
No, he'll end up elsewhere. 44.09% (5,114 votes)
Total Votes: 11,599
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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls New York Mets Pete Alonso

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