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Where Will Jack Flaherty End Up?

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If there’s been one defining characteristic of the 2024-25 offseason so far (aside from Juan Soto’s record-shattering contract), it’s that the market for starting pitching has been extremely robust. On the heels of a 2023-24 offseason that saw top-of-the-market arms like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery linger on the market until the calendar flipped to March, right-hander Michael Wacha kicked things off by re-upping with the Royals before free agency started and the pace hasn’t slowed down much since then. After right-hander Corbin Burnes reached a deal with the Diamondbacks in the final days of December, nearly every notable starting pitcher was already off the market by the time the calendar flipped to January.

Perhaps the biggest exception to that is right-hander Jack Flaherty, who MLBTR ranked as the offseason’s #8 free agent (fourth among starters) at the outset of the winter as part of our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. At the time, we predicted Flaherty would land a five-year, $115MM pact in free agency. That prediction at least seems to have ended up in the right ballpark, as Flaherty is reportedly seeking a five-year deal at this stage of his free agency. Between the winter’s robust market for pitching and the fact that Flaherty was able to reach free agency unencumbered by a Qualifying Offer thanks to a midseason trade from the Tigers to the Dodgers, it stands to reason that he should have a strong chance of reaching that sort of deal.

On the other hand, however, it’s worth noting that there are some signs the market for pitching has begun to cool. Burnes’s deal with Arizona just before the New Year came with a strong average annual value and a potentially lucrative opt-out clause after the second year, but the deferred money involved in the deal reportedly knocks the net present value of the pact below $200MM. MLBTR predicted a seven-year, $200MM pact for Burnes at the outset of the winter, so while even that diminished net present value is more-or-less in line with expectations headed into the offseason, the deal in some ways pales in comparison to the one signed by Max Fried earlier in the winter and certainly falls short of the righty’s reported asking price of $245MM.

If the market for starters has indeed begun to cool somewhat, it’s possible that the market for Flaherty could start to fizzle out when the start of Spring Training games draws near. After all, we need only look back at Montgomery and Snell last winter to see how a pitcher’s market can collapse once they don’t have enough time left to have a typical Spring Training. For now, however, Flaherty still seems to enjoy a fairly robust market. The Blue Jays, Giants, Cubs, Tigers and Oroles have all been connected to the right-hander in recent days.

The Blue Jays and Giants have both been connected to the majority of the offseason’s high-end free agents, as neither club has been particularly shy about its desire to land impact talent this winter. Toronto was notably among the apparent finalists for Burnes before he signed in Arizona, and while the Giants were also strongly connected to Burnes there’s been some indications in the aftermath of his deal with the Diamondbacks that San Francisco is more focused on offense than pitching. Given that the Giants have been attached to first baseman Pete Alonso, it’s possible that the club’s interest in a pitcher of Flaherty’s caliber is more as a backup plan in case they find themselves unable to land the big bat they desire. There’s a possibility that a similar situation could play out with the Blue Jays, as well. The club is known to have extended an offer to outfielder Anthony Santander already, and reporting earlier this winter suggested that Toronto may only have room for one significant multi-year deal in the budget.

It’s possible that the Tigers fall into a similar boat. While the club certainly has the payroll flexibility to make multiple significant multi-year additions if they so desire, president of baseball operations Scott Harris has seemed to be hesitant about making significant multi-year commitments this winter, instead opting to land Alex Cobb and Gleyber Torres on one-year deals. That hasn’t stopped them from engaging in the markets of some big-time free agents, but with Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson helping to anchor a young rotation it’s easy to imaging the club prioritizing a hitter if they decide to offer a nine-figure deal to a player this winter. To that end, Detroit has been one of the teams most frequently connected to third baseman Alex Bregman and also appears to be in the mix for Santander.

Two clubs that have been generally focused on pitching upgrades this winter are the Orioles and the Cubs. Baltimore has already added Tomoyuki Sugano and Charlie Morton to its rotation this winter, and those additions have left them with a deep group of potential starters that isn’t in desperate need of another arm. With that being said, neither Sugano nor Morton can be expected to replace Burnes as the ace of the staff, and with 2023’s staff ace Kyle Bradish expected to miss at least the first half of 2025 it’s fair to think the club would benefit from adding a player of Flaherty’s caliber. To that end, they’ve seemingly remained on the periphery of his market as they continue their search for upgrades even after last week’s deal for Morton.

As for Chicago, they in some ways appear to be the best fit for Flaherty’s services. The Cubs appear to be mostly set on offense after adding Kyle Tucker and Carson Kelly; while there’s potentially room at third base for another bat, they haven’t been closely connected to Alex Bregman in free agency given the presence of top prospect Matt Shaw as a potential Opening Day starter at the position. There’s been plenty of buzz about them adding to their pitching staff, however, and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic recently described another rotation addition as “inevitable” for the club, whether that’s a move to improve depth or bringing a more impactful piece into the fold. Flaherty would certainly fall into the latter category, but it’s worth noting that Sharma reported earlier this winter that while the Cubs have engaged with Flaherty, they were feeling a bit squeamish about his asking price at that point.

There’s some incentive for Flaherty to wait at least a little longer before making his decision: the presence of right-hander Roki Sasaki on the market. Sasaki is being pursued by a large number of teams and is rumored to have met with at least two Flaherty suitors: the Giants and Cubs. Given his unique situation as a potential front-of-the-rotation piece who can be had for nothing more than a minor league deal (and a hefty portion of a club’s international bonus pool), it’s easy to imagine a number of pitching-hungry clubs focusing their attention squarely on Sasaki while he’s available. The right-hander’s decision is due by January 23, so it’s not hard to imagine Flaherty waiting for that date in case a club that misses out on Sasaki either steps up their offer or enters the fray as a new potential suitor.

In the meantime, how do you think Flaherty’s free agency will play out? Will he land with one of his currently known suitors, or will a “mystery team” swoop in and get a deal done? Is the right-hander going to land a deal within the ballpark of MLBTR’s prediction? Will he fall short of, or perhaps exceed, expectations? Have your say in the polls below.

Where Will Flaherty Sign?
Giants 23.83% (1,987 votes)
Tigers 18.97% (1,582 votes)
Orioles 17.71% (1,477 votes)
Blue Jays 14.82% (1,236 votes)
Cubs 13.30% (1,109 votes)
Other (Specify in the comments) 11.36% (947 votes)
Total Votes: 8,338
How Much Will Flaherty Be Guaranteed?
Less than $100MM 46.66% (2,995 votes)
$100MM - $125MM 44.04% (2,827 votes)
More than $125MM 9.30% (597 votes)
Total Votes: 6,419

Where Will Alex Bregman End Up?

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December saw four of the top six free agents on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list come off the board. Left-hander Blake Snell (#4) went to the Dodgers on the final day of November and was followed by shortstop Willy Adames (#5) and Juan Soto (#1), both of whom signed just before the Winter Meetings began. Max Fried (#6) then signed during the Winter Meetings, and Corbin Burnes (#2) snuck in a deal with the Diamondbacks just before 2024 came to a close. That leaves just one free agent in the top six on the board as we turn towards 2025: infielder Alex Bregman, who MLBTR ranked as the offseason’s #3 free agent at the outset of the winter back in November.

Over his nine years in the majors with the Astros, Bregman has made his mark as a two-time World Series champion, a two-time All-Star, and a winner of both the Gold Glove (2024) and Silver Slugger (2019) awards at third base. While Bregman hasn’t managed to recapture the 8-win form he flashed at his peak in the years since then, he’s remained a well above-average regular in recent years: from 2022-24, Bregman slashed a solid .260/.349/.449 (127 wRC+) with 14.0 fWAR and 13.6 bWAR. An average of four-plus wins a year should make any player a fairly sought-after commodity in free agency, and Bregman is no exception. The Red Sox and Tigers have been frequently connected to Bregman this winter, while other suitors of note include the Blue Jays, Mets, and Phillies. It’s a market that seems fairly robust, with multiple big market clubs interested.

With that being said, however, Bregman’s leverage in free agency may not be as strong as it was even a few weeks ago. The most obvious suitor for the veteran’s services for much of the winter was naturally the incumbent Astros, but a reunion between the sides appears to be off the table at this point as they’ve since signed Christian Walker and traded for Isaac Paredes to cover the infield corners. Meanwhile, the Yankees are seemingly distancing themselves from the top of the third base market, as reporting last week threw cold water on the possibility of the club landing either Bregman in free agency or Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado via trade.

Even some of the suitors who haven’t been explicitly ruled out for Bregman may have seen their interest wane somewhat in recent weeks. One such team could be the Tigers, who were reportedly becoming more serious about their pursuit of Bregman as recently as last week… but signed second baseman Gleyber Torres to a one-year deal shortly thereafter. While the addition of Torres certainly doesn’t outright preclude the Tigers from signing Bregman as well given their wide-open payroll outlook and the club’s relatively unsettled third base situation, the addition of another veteran right-handed bat certainly seems likely to ease the pressure Tigers brass might have otherwise felt to add Bregman.

Another potential wild card who may or may not still be in the mix for Bregman could be the Phillies, who reportedly has interest in him earlier this winter. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski recently suggested the club is likely to be done with major additions, but those comments were followed shortly thereafter by Philadelphia swinging a trade to land left-hander Jesus Luzardo from the Marlins. The Phillies would likely need to move on from third baseman Alec Bohm before they could seriously consider adding Bregman to their lineup, though it’s worth noting that Bohm has been a frequent subject of trade rumors this winter.

Still, some of Bregman’s suitors remain clear fits for his services. The Red Sox have been among the teams most frequently discussed in the rumor mill this winter after taking a relative backseat in recent years. While rumored pursuits of big-time free agents like Juan Soto, Max Fried, and Corbin Burnes have not yielded fruit to this point, they’ve found other ways to be aggressive and revamped their rotation to include Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler. With the starting five seemingly addressed, the club’s top priority going forward this winter figures to be adding a righty bat to the lineup who can both improve the offense while also offering some balance against the club’s many lefty hitters. Bregman would fit that role perfectly,  so it’s no surprise that the Red Sox have been frequently connected to him this winter.

The Mets and Blue Jays, meanwhile, haven’t seen their situations change much in recent weeks. New York seems likely to prioritize a reunion with first baseman Pete Alonso over adding Bregman, who would slot in at third base and kick youngster Mark Vientos over to first while likely eliminating the possibility of a reunion between Alonso and the Mets. Still, it’s hard to find a better fit for the Mets than Bregman when looking for contingencies in the event that they’re unable to bridge the current gap in negotiations with their longtime slugger. In Toronto, the addition of Andres Gimenez to the club’s infield would mean that signing Bregman likely pushes Ernie Clement to the bench (at least barring a trade of Bo Bichette), but the third baseman would be exactly the sort of middle-of-the-order hitter the Jays have long hoped to pair with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in their lineup.

As is often the case with high-end free agents who linger on the open market, Bregman’s price tag may be giving some teams pause about more aggressively pursuing him. The infielder has seemingly been on the hunt for a $200MM deal in free agency this winter, and MLBTR’s own prediction prior to the start of the offseason was that he’d land a seven-year $182MM deal. It’s a price that seemingly made both the Astros and Yankees squeamish in their pursuits of Bregman, and the Tigers have also seemed unwilling to go to that level based on previous reports regarding their interest.

If interested clubs are hoping to land Bregman on a deal closer to the six years and $156MM Houston reportedly offered their longtime third baseman or a short-term, high-AAV deal littered with opt-outs similar to the one Carlos Correa signed when he departed Houston a few winters ago, they’ll likely have to wait out his market until closer to the beginning of Spring Training. And the possibility of a “mystery team” swooping in to land Bregman (as happened with Corbin Burnes just last week) cannot be ruled out, either.

How will Bregman’s free agency play out? Will he land with one of his currently known suitors, or a different club? And will he reach the $200MM deal he appears to be seeking, or wind up regretting turning down Houston’s reported $156MM offer?

Where Will Bregman Sign?
Tigers 31.57% (5,519 votes)
Red Sox 23.30% (4,073 votes)
Blue Jays 16.16% (2,826 votes)
Mets 11.71% (2,048 votes)
Other (Specify In Comments) 10.82% (1,892 votes)
Phillies 6.44% (1,126 votes)
Total Votes: 17,484
What Will Bregman Be Guaranteed?
$156MM - $181MM 36.70% (4,896 votes)
$182MM - $199MM 31.33% (4,180 votes)
Less than $156MM 18.09% (2,414 votes)
$200MM - $219MM 10.67% (1,424 votes)
$220MM or more 3.21% (428 votes)
Total Votes: 13,342

Where Will Corbin Burnes End Up?

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With Blake Snell and Max Fried off the board, Corbin Burnes stands alone at the top of the pitching market. There was some thought that the former Cy Young winner might sign within a day or two of Fried agreeing to an eight-year term at the Winter Meetings. That hasn’t happened, though it wouldn’t be a surprise if Burnes signs before league activity goes quiet with the holidays next week.

Thus far, the starting pitching class has outperformed expectations. That’s most true of Fried, whom few would’ve foreseen getting eight years or handily beating $200MM at the start of the offseason. With Fried securing $218MM, how much should one project upwards on Burnes? Every free agent projection would’ve had Burnes above Fried when the offseason got underway. Fried money feels like a floor for Burnes, whom MLBTR predicted for seven years and $200MM just six weeks ago.

That said, the Yankees and Mets were two of the most obvious on-paper fits at the start of the offseason. The Yankees can safely be ruled out after the Fried deal. The Mets are still in the market for starting pitching and have the payroll room to lurk as a threat on Burnes even after landing Juan Soto. Yet it seems the Mets’ focus for starting pitching has been on the middle tiers. They added Frankie Montas and converted Clay Holmes to the rotation, preferring more affordable upside plays than a quick strike for any of free agency’s top three arms. They’re reportedly still interested in re-signing Sean Manaea, which would very likely close the door on a Burnes acquisition.

Recent rumors have most prominently connected Burnes to a few teams: the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Giants and (to a lesser extent) the Orioles. Boston is still engaged in the rotation market after landing Garrett Crochet last week. Trading for Crochet leaves them with ample payroll space — the former White Sox staff ace is projected for a meager $2.9MM arbitration salary — but could indicate that the Sox weren’t keen on the climbing cost for free agent starting pitching.

The Giants would benefit greatly from an ace they could plug alongside Logan Webb in the rotation to replace Snell’s production. Yet San Francisco has already made a pair of big investments ($151MM on the Matt Chapman extension, $182MM for Willy Adames) within the past few months. Does ownership have interest in a deal that should easily exceed those already significant contracts?

Depending on how one feels about the Andrés Giménez trade, it’s debatable whether the Blue Jays have made a splash acquisition this offseason. They were heavily involved on Soto and Fried but watched both players head elsewhere. Their front office could be most motivated to land a marquee free agent, but they’re also faced with some payroll questions. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith wrote last week that the Jays landing Burnes “doesn’t seem especially likely,” suggesting the organization could prefer to focus on a bat as its biggest addition while looking for a cheaper rebound target on the rotation front.

Maybe that opens the opportunity for the incumbent Orioles to make a push. GM Mike Elias has said that the ownership change has allowed the O’s front office to explore the top of the rotation market. (They reportedly were involved on Snell, in particular.) Still, it’s fair to take a “believe it when I see it” approach for Baltimore. The O’s have brought up spending since David Rubenstein purchased the franchise in April. They took on Zach Eflin’s $18MM salary in a deadline trade with the Rays and signed Tyler O’Neill for three years and $49.5MM last week. Yet neither investment is close to what it’d take to retain Burnes.

How will the Burnes situation play out? Will there be a late push by a mystery team to land him, and how much will it take? Is he soon to be the latest beneficiary of a bullish rotation market, or is the number of teams willing to make a $200MM+ investment drying up?

Which Team Will Sign Corbin Burnes?
Giants. 34.61% (4,487 votes)
Red Sox. 20.56% (2,665 votes)
Orioles. 13.95% (1,809 votes)
Blue Jays. 11.40% (1,478 votes)
Other (specify in comments). 10.06% (1,304 votes)
Mets. 9.43% (1,222 votes)
Total Votes: 12,965

 

What Will Burnes Be Guaranteed?
$240MM - $259MM. 28.18% (2,346 votes)
$220MM - $239MM. 26.26% (2,186 votes)
$260MM - $279MM. 14.46% (1,204 votes)
$200MM - $219MM. 11.32% (942 votes)
$280MM - $299MM. 7.51% (625 votes)
$300MM or more. 6.45% (537 votes)
Less than $200MM. 5.83% (485 votes)
Total Votes: 8,325

 

What Should The Padres Do With Luis Arraez?

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One year removed from an offseason that saw the Padres radically alter the direction of their franchise by paring down on payroll and trading superstar Juan Soto to the Yankees, San Diego once again finds itself in something of a financial pickle. The club is expected to maintain its payroll level from 2024 headed into 2025; according to RosterResource, that’s a budget of $169MM and a luxury tax payroll that falls below the first threshold (which sits at $241MM in 2025). Getting to that level of payroll may be easier said than done, however, as the Padres are currently projected for a payroll just under $210MM in 2025 with a luxury tax payroll of $244M, just above the first threshold.

That leaves the club likely looking to pare down payroll by around $40MM this winter, and they’ll surely be hoping to make additions to the team in spite of those cuts. The Padres will need to add at least one starter to pair with a trio of Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Yu Darvish this winter, and the departure of Jurickson Profar leaves a void in left field, not to mention the losses of role players David Peralta and Donovan Solano weakening the club’s lineup at DH and on the bench. Of course, any players the club parts ways with to reduce payroll will surely create new holes that need to be filled, leaving A.J. Preller and the club’s front office in a bit of a pickle.

One avenue the Padres could use to reduce payroll this year runs through Luis Arraez. The club acquired the 27-year-old back in May, and he generally played fairly well during his time in San Diego this year with a .318/.346/.398 slash line that was good for a 111 wRC+ and earned him the third consecutive batting title of his career. A contact savant who has managed to reduce his already impressive 10% strikeout rate from 2021 to 7.1% in 2022, 5.4% in 2023, and 4.3% this past year, Arraez struck out an unbelievable 3.4% of the time during his time with the Padres. As an above-average hitter who is more reliable than anyone else in the game when it comes to putting the bat on the ball, it’s easy to see why Arraez has been attractive enough to clubs that both the Marlins and Padres have given up significant packages to land him in recent years.

That preternatural knack for contact is held back by Arraez’s lackluster plate discipline causing his walk rate to decline steadily alongside his strikeout rate over the years and a complete lack of power, however. Both of those flaws were on full display in 2024, as Arraez walked at a 3.6% clip with an ISO of .078, which both ranked third from the bottom among qualified major league hitters. While it’s possible that the thumb injury Arraez played through this year before undergoing surgery in October could have impacted him in the power department, but even his career-high .115 ISO with the Marlins last year landed just outside the bottom ten among qualified hitters. Between those flaws in his hitting profile and his lackluster defense that largely limited him to first base and DH with the Padres, it’s also easy to see why both the Twins and Marlins were willing to part ways with him on the trade market in recent years.

Could Arraez be dealt for the third year in a row this winter? Doing so is perhaps the simplest path to slashing a significant chunk of payroll for the Padres. Cease and King are both projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for hefty arbitration salaries, but neither reaches the $14.6MM figure Arraez is currently penciled in for. Clearing that money off the books would drop the Padres’ payroll to around $195MM. While San Diego would then need to replace Arraez at first base headed into next year, a number of bats at the position including former Padres Josh Bell, Ty France, and Anthony Rizzo figure to be available for a relative bargain this winter, meaning it should be fairly easy for the club to replace Arraez in the lineup and still come out $10-12MM ahead, not to mention that the return for Arraez’s services could help to plug holes in the rotation or outfield. Those motivations behind a potential deal were enough to land Arraez the 17th spot on MLBTR’s Top 35 offseason trade candidates list.

With that being said, a trade of Arraez isn’t the only option at the Padres’ disposal as they look for ways to pare down payroll. He’s already indicated this winter that he would be open to an extension with the club this winter as he stares down his final year under team control before free agency, and the Padres have regularly worked out contracts that offer the club additional financial flexibility in the short-term and the player additional security in the long term in the past. That includes deals that comes together just before a player is due to reach free agency, such as the extensions they’ve offered to Darvish and Manny Machado in recent years.

If Arraez were amenable to it, it’s easy to imagine the Padres back-loading the deal to reduce his 2025 salary significantly and/or offering a lower AAV over a longer term in order to duck under the luxury tax threshold. As one example, a six-year deal worth $60MM would come with an AAV of just $10MM, allowing the club to shave ~$4.6MM of its expected luxury tax bill for 2025. Meanwhile, if the deal was structured such that Arraez made just $5MM in the first year of the deal followed by $11MM salaries over the rest of the contract, that would offer the Padres nearly $10MM in savings on their 2025 payroll as compared to his arbitration salary- a figure not that different than what they’d save by trading him and replacing him with a low-cost veteran.

Those numbers are purely hypothetical, of course, and it’s certainly possible Arraez would not want to lock into a deal with such a relatively low annual salary without first seeing what’s available to him on the open market. That’s not the only flaw in the plan of extending Arraez, either; while a deal with a similar structure to the one mentioned above would be a major help in solving San Diego’s immediate payroll concerns for 2025, in a longer-term view it simply kicks the can down the road to next season when Arraez’s salary would shoot up by $6MM and could leave the club in the same financial jam they find themselves in now.

If you were in the Padres’ shoes, would you look to deal Arraez elsewhere this winter and replace him at first base, attempt to extend him long-term, or simply play out the season and cut payroll elsewhere? Have your say in the poll below!

What Should The Padres Do With Arraez?
Trade him and find a new first baseman. 47.90% (3,756 votes)
Extend him long-term to lessen the short-term financial burden. 32.96% (2,585 votes)
Play out his walk year and cut payroll elsewhere. 19.14% (1,501 votes)
Total Votes: 7,842

Trade Candidate: Brandon Lowe

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When Brandon Lowe was healthy in 2020 and ’21, he was arguably the best second baseman in baseball. The Rays slugger led primary second basemen in home runs, RBI, OPS, wRC+, and FanGraphs WAR over those two seasons. Unfortunately, he has missed significant time with various injuries in each of the three years since. When he takes the field, however, Lowe is still a highly productive player. He launched 21 homers in 107 games this past season while producing a 123 wRC+ and 2.2 fWAR. His .350 xwOBA ranked in the 85th percentile of major league hitters.

Earlier this month, Tampa Bay picked up a $10.5MM team option for Lowe’s services in 2025, rather than paying him a $1MM buyout and sending him off to free agency. The Rays might be notoriously close-fisted, but still, there was little doubt they’d exercise the option. A net $9.5MM is a bargain for a player like Lowe, even if he sits out a third of the season with injuries once again. That being said, a $10.5MM salary puts Lowe in a tie with Jeffrey Springs for the highest paycheck on the club next year. To put it another way, it’s approximately 12% of the team’s estimated payroll for 2025 (per RosterResource). Thus, it’s more than fair to wonder if the Rays would rather spread that money across multiple roster spots rather than give it all to one injury-prone player. In other words, it’s fair to wonder if Lowe will be wearing a new uniform by Opening Day next March.

Tampa Bay has a long track of trading veteran players once their salaries start to increase, even when the team is still planning to contend. As the Rays enter the 2024-25 offseason coming off their worst finish since 2017, and coming off a season in which they sold big at the trade deadline, it seems even more believable that they would consider trading Lowe. Furthermore, the Rays have multiple internal options who could replace Lowe in the lineup (even if they can’t necessarily replace his production). One of Junior Caminero or José Caballero could potentially slide over to second base, while Christopher Morel could slot in for Caminero at third base or Taylor Walls could replace Caballero at shortstop. Former top prospect Curtis Mead is another infielder to keep in mind.

Then again, the fact that the Rays didn’t trade Lowe at last year’s deadline could be an indication that they’d like to hold onto him for 2025. After all, they might be cheap, but they also love a good value play. If the Rays shop Lowe around and come to the conclusion that he is severely undervalued around the league, they might prefer to hold onto him.

Back in August, Rays hitting coach Chad Mottola told Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, “I don’t think the industry and even our own fans understand the impact [Lowe] makes in our lineup.” If president of baseball operations Erik Neander shares that opinion, he might be hesitant to part with his All-Star second baseman. Neander recently expressed confidence in Lowe’s bat and glove, telling Topkin, that Lowe is “most valuable” as a second baseman but that the team could continue to give him some time at first base and DH next season to have his powerful bat in the lineup as often as possible.

It’s also worth mentioning that Lowe has another team option for 2026 (valued at $11.5MM with a $500K buyout), which means Tampa Bay could keep him around for the start of next season and still have the flexibility to trade him at a later date. What’s more, the Rays have numerous other trade candidates on the roster. Lowe isn’t the only player they can flip if they’re facing pressure to cut payroll in light of the damage to Tropicana Field or the team’s current lack of a broadcast deal.

First baseman Yandy Díaz and closer Pete Fairbanks are two of the top 10 players on MLBTR’s list of the top 35 trade candidates of the offseason. Díaz (no. 5) will be making $10MM next year, and he has a $12MM team option for the following season. His contract also includes a $1MM trade assignment bonus. Fairbanks (no. 7) is set to collect $3.67MM in 2025, and he has a $7MM club option with a $1MM buyout for 2026. One more name to keep in mind is Zack Littell. He doesn’t have the same star power as Díaz or even Fairbanks, but he has proven himself to be a capable mid-rotation starter over the last year and a half. He made just $1.85MM this past season, but he is projected to earn close to a $3MM raise in his final year of arbitration eligibility.

Another factor to consider is the market for second baseman this offseason, both in terms of free agents and trade candidates. Only two of MLBTR’s top 50 free agents are primary second basemen: Gleyber Torres (no. 20) and Hyeseong Kim (no. 26). One could easily imagine why teams would prefer Lowe over either of them, especially on such a team-friendly contract. However, things could get more complicated if any teams are seriously pursuing Alex Bregman (no. 3), Willy Adames (no. 5), or Ha-Seong Kim (no. 43) to play second base. Ha-Seong Kim was a primary second baseman as recently as 2023, while both Adames and Bregman have expressed a willingness to switch positions.

As for the trade market, second basemen who could be on the move include Luis Arraez (no. 17 on MLBTR’s top trade candidates list), Brendan Donovan (no. 20), and Nolan Gorman (no. 21). However, none of those players seem particularly likely to be dealt, and they all fill different niches than Lowe. Funnily enough, all four bat left-handed, but Lowe is the only one who offers proven, middle-of-the-order power against both left- and right-handed pitching.

So, do you think the Rays will hold onto Lowe this winter? Or will they have a new second baseman on Opening Day 2025? Have your say in the poll below!

(poll link for app users)

Will the Rays trade Brandon Lowe this offseason?
Yes 62.11% (1,944 votes)
No 37.89% (1,186 votes)
Total Votes: 3,130

 

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Poll: Should The Pirates Trade A Catcher?

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For a few years now, the Pirates have had a couple of catchers as two of their top prospects. Henry Davis was taken with the first overall pick in the 2021 draft and has been under the microscope ever since. Endy Rodríguez was acquired in the January 2021 three-team trade that sent Joe Musgrove to the Padres and was declared Pittsburgh’s top prospect by Baseball America going into 2023.

There’s now a third name in the mix as Joey Bart had his long-awaited breakout in 2024. Selected second overall by the Giants in 2018, he struggled to establish himself at the big league level in San Francisco and had exhausted his option years by the end of 2023. He held onto his roster spot until the end of spring training 2024 but was designated for assignment at that time, getting flipped to the Pirates for minor league righty Austin Strickland.

Bart missed some time due to injury this year but got into 80 games for the Bucs and hit 13 homers. He slashed .265/.337/.462 overall for a wRC+ of 121, indicating he was 21% better than league average. His defense wasn’t highly regarded but that kind of offense behind the plate is hard to come by and was especially valuable on a Pittsburgh team that found it difficult to score runs. Among catchers with at least 250 plate appearances, Bart’s 121 wRC+ was fourth behind the Contreras brothers and Iván Herrera. With the same plate appearance threshold, he led all Pirate hitters in that stat.

Now there is theoretically a logjam with the three guys, as most clubs only roster two catchers at a time. The designated hitter spot probably doesn’t help, with Andrew McCutchen likely to be in there. He’s technically heading into free agency now but he and the Pirates seem to have an agreement whereby they can keep reupping with each other until he’s ready to retire. He’s now 38 years old but was one of the club’s only good hitters in 2024. For guys with 250 plate appearances, only Bart, Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz and McCutchen were above average by wRC+.

Rodríguez debuted in 2023 and didn’t hit much, with a .220/.284/.328 batting line and 65 wRC+ in his first 204 plate appearances. However, his defense was universally praised and he has hit better in the minors. He has slashed .295/.383/.506 on the farm overall and .285/.362/.450 at the Triple-A level. In December of last year, he underwent surgery on the UCL and flexor tendon in his throwing elbow and missed the entire big league season in 2024. He started a rehab assignment in mid-September and played in a handful of minor league games, suggesting he should be good to go for 2025.

Davis has had a more infuriating career so far, as he has destroyed minor league pitching but struggled badly in the majors. In 377 major league plate appearances thus far, he has struck out in 30.2% of them and hit .191/.283/.307 for a wRC+ of 61. But since the start of 2023, he has a 13.7% walk rate and 21.5% strikeout rate in the minors, helping him produce a combined .302/.424/.550 line and 158 wRC+.

All of this will lead to some interesting decisions for the Bucs. Bart isn’t great defensively but is a big bat on a club that didn’t have many this year. Rodríguez has played some other positions but a big part of his appeal is his strong work behind the plate. Davis has also dabbled in playing the outfield but the offensive expectations are even higher at that position than at catcher, so moving him into the outfield mix would put even more pressure on his bat.

Davis and Rodríguez still have options, so it’s possible that the Pirates could keep all three, with two of them in the majors and one in Triple-A. But Rodríguez is already a solid defender by big league standards and has done plenty of hitting in the minors, making it fairly wasteful to have him back down there. Davis doesn’t have much left to prove on the farm with his big numbers there. Arguably, the best thing for him is to see more big league pitching and get accustomed to it.

Another path they could choose is trading one of these three. Doing so would sacrifice some depth but Jason Delay is also on the 40-man roster and is still optionable. But there are also arguments against trading each of the three.

Davis might feel expendable at the moment with his relatively weaker defense and the fact that he hasn’t put it together offensively just yet, but the path of Bart is a cautionary tale. The Giants would surely love a mulligan on letting him go and the Pirates are probably aware that they could end up on the other side of such a trade. Given that Davis was such a highly regarded prospect, it’s not hard to imagine them flipping him and quickly regretting it when they have to watch him have his breakout elsewhere.

It wouldn’t be an ideal time to trade Rodríguez either, as he’s coming off a completely lost season. With some health and a step forward at the plate, he could improve his value tremendously this year and down the line.

Selling high on Bart might be appealing because they grabbed him at such a low point and saw him take a big step forward. But as mentioned, the club had so few productive hitters in 2024 and subtracting one of them would be a risky ploy.

Though there’s potential downsides with these considerations, the Pirates might think about it anyway. They generally don’t spend a ton of money in free agency but need to upgrade the roster somehow. General manager Ben Cherington has had his job since November of 2019 and the club has been stuck below .500 since then. They were rebuilding for the first few years of his tenure but expectations have been raised with some flashes of winning baseball in the past two campaigns. Unfortunately, they finished with a 76-86 record both last year and this year, perhaps leading to a bit of desperation in getting over the hump in 2025.

It’s possible that the free agent catching market could work in their favor this winter. The best available backstops are guys like Danny Jansen, Carson Kelly and Kyle Higashioka. Jansen is coming off a nightmare season and is a big question mark right now. Higashioka is coming off a career year but will turn 35 in April, making it fair to wonder if he just peaked. Kelly has been inconsistent in his career and more okay than great even when at his best. The Cardinals will likely make Willson Contreras available on the trade market but he has a pricey contract and is about to turn 33 years old. Christian Vázquez is in a similar situation to Contreras as a pricey veteran but with the offense and defense flipped, as Vázquez is a glove-first guy and Contreras bat-first.

Several clubs could use help behind the plate, with the Rays, Padres, Nationals, Cubs, Reds, Phillies and Braves just some of the possibilities. All three of Pittsburgh’s catchers are cheap, with Davis and Rodríguez still in their pre-arb years and Bart just getting to arbitration for the first time. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Bart for a modest $1.8MM salary in 2025, not much above next year’s $760K league minimum. Those affordable salaries would naturally appeal to clubs with budgetary or competitive balance tax concerns.

What do you think the Pirates should do with their many catching options? Have your say in the poll below!

Should the Pirates trade a catcher?
No, keep them all. 26.48% (1,034 votes)
Yes, trade one, but I'm not sure which. 25.97% (1,014 votes)
Yes, trade Davis. 25.43% (993 votes)
Yes, trade Bart. 16.18% (632 votes)
Yes, trade Rodríguez. 5.94% (232 votes)
Total Votes: 3,905

Poll: The Diamondbacks’ Club Option On Eugenio Suárez

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Once the World Series wraps up, teams and players will have five days to decide on options, opt-outs and qualifying offers. One of the more interesting cases is third baseman Eugenio Suárez. The Diamondbacks can retain him via a $15MM club option or go for a $2MM buyout instead.

There was a time a few months ago when it seemed a lock that the Snakes would take the buyout and let Geno go. But after a torrid second half, it would now be surprising if they didn’t pick up the option.

Suárez has been a very streaky player in his career overall and his lopsided 2024 season was a microcosm of that. From 2017 to 2019, he hit .271/.364/.521 for a wRC+ of 127 with the Reds. That 2019 season saw him hit 49 long balls, but it’s now established that there was a juiced ball that season, making for some wonky home run totals around the league. His strikeout rate ticked up to 28.5% that year after being in the 23-25% range in prior seasons.

The strikeouts continued into subsequent seasons, leading to a rough patch for him. He struck out 29.6% of the time over 2020 and 2021, producing a .199/.293/.440 batting line and 89 wRC+. His was then flipped to the Mariners in a move that was largely viewed as the M’s taking on his salary as a way of acquiring Jesse Winker.

But Suárez went on to have a huge bounceback season in Seattle, hitting 31 home runs in 2022 and slashing .236/.332/.459 for a 132 wRC+. His home run total dipped to 22 last year but his .232/.323/.391 line still led to a 104 wRC+, a bit above average. He was striking out over 30% of the time but still proving to be useful overall. He also improved his glovework while with the Mariners. Defensive Runs Saved still viewed him as a subpar defender at third but his marks in 2022-23 were better than during time in Cincinnati. Outs Above Average had long viewed him around average but gave him a huge +12 grade in 2023.

It was then that the Diamondbacks acquired him, sending pitcher Carlos Vargas and catcher Seby Zavala to the Mariners in November of last year. At that time, Suárez had one guaranteed year left on his contract. He was going to make $11MM in 2024 with the aforementioned club option was there as well.

His ’24 campaign eventually mirrored the up-and-down nature of his career overall. He was brutal in the first half, to the point that there were rumors by early June of the club hoping for a trade. A few days later, manager Torey Lovullo admitted that Suárez was going to lose some playing time to infielder Blaze Alexander. At the end of June, Suárez was sitting on a line of .196/.279/.312, a 29.2% strikeout rate and 66 wRC+.

But the calendar flipped to July and Suárez caught fire, something that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco explored a month ago. In the final three months of the season, Suárez struck out at a 25.8% clip, still above league average but an improvement for him. He hit 24 home runs and slashed .312/.357/.617 for a 162 wRC+. He was one of the ten best qualified hitters in the majors in that stretch.

Though he’s done it with plenty of strikeouts and some rough patches, Suárez has managed to be a solid contributor for three straight seasons now. FanGraphs has credited him with between 3.5 and 4.3 wins above replacement in each of the three most recent campaigns. Despite his awful first half in 2024, he still got his fWAR total to 3.8 by season’s end.

A net $13MM decision on a player who can produce like that should be an easy call, but there’s at least an argument for the Diamondbacks going in a different direction. Given the up-and-down nature of Suárez’s career and most recent season, perhaps the Snakes would like to jump off the rollercoaster while they have a chance. Suárez is now 33 years old, turning 34 next July, and there will have to come a time where he can’t keep walking this tightrope.

The Diamondbacks could prefer to turn third base over to someone else within the organization. That someone was Alexander earlier this year but he slumped as Suárez surged and ended up with a .247/.321/.343 line and 88 wRC+ in 2024. He also struck out at a Suárezian 30.7% rate in 51 Triple-A games while producing league-average offense at that level, making him a risky bet as an everyday MLB third baseman next year.

There’s also Jordan Lawlar, who is considered one of the top prospects in the league. He has mostly played shortstop in his career but has dabbled at third base lately, perhaps due to the Snakes having Geraldo Perdomo at short. Lawlar has climbed the minor league ladder and accumulated a small amount of major league playing time, so perhaps they could let him take over the hot corner.

However, that was also the case a year ago. Lawlar reached the majors late in 2023 but struggled badly. He hit .129/.206/.129 in his first 14 big league games. The Diamondbacks clearly weren’t ready to hand him a major league job, which is why they went out and traded for Suárez.

In 2024, Lawlar could have perhaps earned the gig while Suárez was struggling but injuries got in the way. Lawlar ruptured the ulnar collateral ligament in his right thumb during spring training, requiring surgery. That kept him out of action until May, but then hamstring injuries held him back in the summer. He only played 23 minor league games this year around those injury issues and didn’t play in the majors.

That leaves the Snakes in the same position with Lawlar as they were one year ago. He is surely still viewed as a key part of their future but hasn’t yet proven himself in the majors. One year ago, the club decided they needed a more established option at third and went with Suárez.

Perhaps they will decide to take the same approach in 2025, having Suárez at third as a placeholder for Lawlar’s eventual arrival. They could look to non-Suárez options for that job if they want, but the free agent market doesn’t have an answer for them. Of the available third basemen, Alex Bregman is the clear top option. After Bregman, the top options for the hot corner are more bench/utility types like Paul DeJong, Enrique Hernández and Gio Urshela. On the trade market, the Cardinals might make Nolan Arenado available in their reset year but he has a full no-trade clause, complicating that situation.

The Diamondbacks won’t be the most logical landing spot for Bregman if they view Lawlar as their future third baseman. Perhaps they want Lawlar to supplant Perdomo at short, with the latter moving to second base and bumping Ketel Marte into a fairly regular designated hitter. Even so, they don’t usually win the bidding on top free agents so it’s unlikely Bregman would be part of such a plan.

That weak market for third baseman could give Suárez extra appeal as a trade candidate, so perhaps the Snakes will consider making him available, either before or after picking up the option. Clubs with borderline options often look into making deals as the decision moment arrives. Last November, the Brewers traded Mark Canha to the Tigers a few days before his option decision was due, with Detroit picking up the option a few days after acquiring him.

Surely there will be some club that misses out on Bregman and looks for backup plans, which could lead to them fielding some calls on Suárez. But the tepid market cuts both ways, as the Diamondbacks would then be limited in what they could do to replace Suárez, meaning they would be putting a lot of faith in Lawlar or Alexander stepping up and taking the job.

There are arguments for each path. Suárez might be the most straightforward answer at third base for the next year, giving appeal to simply sticking with him. But on the other hand, cutting ties from a risky and streaky player who is entering his mid-30s also has appeal, as they were trying to trade him or bench him as of a few months ago and that money could be redirected to another part of the roster. Perhaps the trade market could help the club find an upgrade while also saving a few bucks for other moves.

What do you think the Snakes should do? Have your say in the poll below!

What should the Diamondback do with Eugenio Suárez?
Pick up the club option and keep him. 59.86% (3,447 votes)
Decline the club option. 21.59% (1,243 votes)
Pick up the club option and trade him. 18.55% (1,068 votes)
Total Votes: 5,758

Poll: Who Wins The World Series?

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The most common rivalry in World Series history is being renewed for the first time since 1981, as the Dodgers and Yankees will meet for a record 12th time in the Fall Classic.  New York holds an 8-3 lead in the previous matchups, which included such iconic baseball moments as Jackie Robinson’s steal of home, Don Larsen’s perfect game, Reggie Jackson’s three-homer performance, and many more.

Now, a modern set of superstar players will square off.  Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Gerrit Cole, Teoscar Hernandez, Giancarlo Stanton, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be among those trying to win their first World Series rings, while the likes of Juan Soto and Mookie Betts are looking to add to their already-storied October legacies.

The L.A. lineup was simply too much for the Mets in the NLCS, as the Dodgers scored 46 runs over the six games.  While the Dodgers’ reliever-heavy pitching attack is still trying to cover innings amidst a lot of injuries to regular starters, the team is perhaps just pitching too well to really call it a “patchwork” staff any more — Los Angeles has recorded four shutouts in its last eight playoff games.

The New York offense was also too much for the Guardians in the ALCS, with Stanton and Soto in particular leading the way with a combined seven homers and 13 RBI over the five-game series.  Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Clarke Schmidt have also formed a powerful three-man front in the rotation, and Luke Weaver’s late-season emergence as the Yankees’ closer has continued into a largely dominant postseason.

The Yankees are looking to add to their record total of 27 championships, though they are in a relative drought by the franchise’s lofty standards.  This is only the second time in 21 seasons that New York has taken part in the World Series, with the only other appearance in that span coming in 2009 when the Yankees defeated the Phillies.  The Dodgers have “only” seven titles to show from their 22 trips to the World Series, but they have the most recent victory, capturing the 2020 Series that followed the pandemic-shortened regular season.

Since the Dodgers won 98 regular-season games to the Yankees’ 94 wins, Los Angeles holds the home-field advantage, so the World Series is set to begin on Friday at Dodger Stadium.  Just one question remains….what’s your prediction?

(poll link for app users)

World Series result?
Dodgers in six 33.21% (5,730 votes)
Yankees in six 28.51% (4,919 votes)
Dodgers in seven 12.07% (2,082 votes)
Yankees in seven 11.52% (1,987 votes)
Dodgers in five 6.13% (1,058 votes)
Yankees in five 5.36% (925 votes)
Dodgers in four 1.80% (310 votes)
Yankees in four 1.41% (243 votes)
Total Votes: 17,254

Poll: Christian Walker And The Qualifying Offer

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Ever since the club dealt superstar slugger Paul Goldschmidt to the Cardinals prior to the 2019 season, the Diamondbacks have been relying on Christian Walker to pick up the slack at first base. In his first three seasons as a regular, Walker was somewhat uneven as he posted roughly league average numbers with the bat overall (103 wRC+) thanks to decent but unimpressive strikeout (24.1%) and walk (9.6%) rates that combined with only average power. While Walker posted above average defensive marks during that time, that wasn’t enough to make him an impact player at a bat-first position like first base, leaving him to generate just 4.1 fWAR over his first three seasons after taking over for Goldschmidt.

Since then, however, the slugger has proved to be a late bloomer and taken off in a big way. A breakout 2022 season saw Walker nearly match that aforementioned three-year total in a single season with a 4.0 fWAR campaign where he slashed an excellent .242/.327/.477 (122 wRC+) while appearing in 160 of the club’s 162 games and clobbering 36 home runs. That was good for the sixth-highest home run total in the league that year, and Walker paired it with a 19.6% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate. Only Yordan Alvarez and Anthony Rizzo joined Walker in striking out less than 20% of the time, walking more than 10% of the time, and clubbing at least 30 homers that year. 2022 also saw Walker flourish defensively, as his +14 Outs Above Average and +17 Defensive Runs Saved easily earned him his first career Gold Glove award as he ran circles around the competition, with Matt Olson’s +4 OAA and +6 DRS standing as the next-best defensive resume that year.

Some skepticism is always necessary when a player on the wrong side of 30 enjoys a breakout season, but Walker has subsequently proven his fantastic age-31 campaign to have been largely sustainable. It’s been more of the same in each of the last two years, as Walker has posted identical 119 wRC+ figures in both 2023 and ’24 while slugging a combined 59 homers and generating 6.9 fWAR. Over the past three years, only Goldschmidt, Olson, Bryce Harper, and Freddie Freeman have generated more fWAR than Walker at first base, cementing him as one of the league’s premier first basemen.

Each of those four sluggers ahead of him have played on nine-figure deals in recent years, but even as Walker heads into free agency for the first time in his career it would be a shock if he were to join them in landing a contract anywhere close to that price point. The biggest reason for that is his age; Walker will turn 34 the day after Opening Day 2025, making him two years older than Freeman was when he signed on with the Dodgers and a year older than Goldschmidt was when he signed an extension in St. Louis. While it’s certainly not unheard of for hitters to remain effective into their mid-to-late thirties, it would be an incredibly risky bet for a club to offer Walker even a four- or five-year deal given the typical aging curve of MLB players.

Walker’s age isn’t the only factor at play here, either. While his platform season with Arizona in 2024 was largely a successful one, an oblique strain cost the veteran just over a month late in the year. Walker’s availability has been a major asset in recent years; the veteran appeared in more than 90% of the Dbacks’ games from 2019 to 2023, including just seven games missed between the 2022 and ’23 seasons combined. Given that, it’s surely concerning to prospective suitors that Walker now has a significant oblique injury in his recent history—particularly given the fact that he also suffered from oblique problems in 2021 that resulted in multiple trips to the IL.

As the veteran enters free agency not only on the cusp of his mid-thirties but on the heels of a fresh reminder of his injury history, it’s fair to wonder what sort of contract will be available to him on the open market. Other veteran first basemen like Rizzo and Jose Abreu have managed to get deals in the two-to-three year range for $15-20MM annually, and it’s not hard to imagine Walker getting a similar deal. If Walker figures to land a deal in a similar range, that would likely place him squarely on the bubble for a Qualifying Offer, which this offseason will be a one-year deal worth $21.05MM.

That’s likely a slight overpay in terms of AAV for Walker’s services, but it could nonetheless be an attractive gamble for the Diamondbacks to take given Walker’s importance to the club’s lineup in recent years and the short-term nature of the commitment. RosterResource at Fangraphs projects Arizona for just under $97MM in commitments for the 2025 season, though that figure shoots up to around $138MM after factoring in options for Jordan Montgomery, Eugenio Suarez, and Merrill Kelly.

That would still leave the club with around $35MM of budget space if they were to match their 2024 spending totals, although a $21.05MM commitment to Walker would eat up the majority of that space, leaving them without much room to replace other outgoing free agents such as Joc Pederson and Randal Grichuk. Of course, that assumes that Walker would accept the offer if it’s extended to him. If he were to decline it and sign elsewhere, the Diamondbacks would receive a compensatory pick following either the first or second round of the 2025 draft in exchange for losing Walker, allowing them to ensure they won’t lose a key cog in their lineup for nothing.

Should the Diamondbacks extend Walker the Qualifying Offer this winter and risk paying him more in 2025 than he would earn otherwise, or should they allow him to enter free agency unencumbered and risk losing him for nothing? Have your say in the poll below.

Should the Diamondbacks extend the QO to Christian Walker?
Yes, make Walker a $21.05MM Qualifying Offer. 71.47% (2,918 votes)
No, allow Walker to enter free agency without making a Qualifying Offer. 28.53% (1,165 votes)
Total Votes: 4,083

Should The Padres Move Adrián Morejón Back To The Rotation?

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Left-hander Adrián Morejón just wrapped up the best season of his major league career, at least so far. He had appeared in each of the seasons from 2019 to 2023 but never reached 35 innings pitched in any of those. In 2024, he made 60 relief appearances, logging 63 2/3 frames. He allowed 2.83 earned runs per nine innings in that time. His 26.1% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 51.4% ground ball rate were all better than league averages. He added another two appearances in the postseason.

Now the Padres and Morejón will have to decide what’s next. The southpaw came up as a starting pitching prospect and was highly regarded as a minor leaguer. The Cuban lefty secured an $11MM signing bonus from the Padres in 2016, before the league introduced the hard-capped international amateur spending system that currently exists. Baseball America considered him one of the top 100 prospects in the league from 2017 to 2021, with Morejón getting as high as #52 going into 2019.

But his trajectory slowed down since that peak of his prospect hype, largely due to injuries. In 2019, he made his major league debut but missed time due to a shoulder impingement. The 2020 season was shortened by the pandemic and there were no minor league games, limiting him to just nine appearances and less than 20 innings that year. In 2021, he required Tommy John surgery after just two starts. He was off the injured list by June of 2022 but missed time in the second half of that year due to shoulder inflammation. In 2023, he spent time on the IL due to a left elbow sprain and right knee inflammation, limiting him to just nine major league innings and less than 30 on the farm.

With all of those injuries, the Padres understandably kept him in a relief role this year. As mentioned up top, he stayed healthy and thrived in the bullpen. Based on the way the past few years went, the club might be tempted to just keep Morejón in the bullpen. With Tanner Scott set to reach free agency, Morejón arguably projects as the club’s best southpaw reliever for 2025, ahead of Wandy Peralta and Yuki Matsui.

But there’s upside to considering the alternative, with Garrett Crochet being a best-case scenario example of what’s possible. Like Morejón, Crochet was a top prospect who had spent the early parts of his career either hurt or pitching in relief. The White Sox stretched him out for a rotation role in 2024 with fantastic results, as he posted a 3.58 ERA over 146 innings. Even those numbers sell him short, as that club’s poor defense seemingly contributed to a .318 batting average on balls in play for Crochet this year. He struck out 35.1% of batters faced, limited walks to a 5.5% clip and got grounders on 45.1% of balls in play. If it weren’t for that high BABIP, he probably would have kept some more runs off the board, which is why his 2.69 FIP and 2.53 SIERA were far better than his ERA.

That’s not to say that the Padres should consider such a performance from Morejón to be likely, but it demonstrates the proverbial pot of gold they could chase. Crochet is now a borderline ace and he will likely be the top trade candidate of this offseason, with the White Sox looking at bringing back a king’s ransom in terms of young prospects.

Morejón threw five different pitches in 2024, suggesting there’s potentially still a starter’s repertoire in there, without him relying on any one pitch too much. His sinker, slider and four-seamer were all thrown between 23 and 36% of the time, while he also sprinkled in a splitter 7.6% of the time and a sweeper at a 2.6% clip. That helped him avoid the extreme splits that can often doom a pitcher to a specialized relief role. Lefties hit .255/.303/.367 off Morejón this year while righties were only slightly better at .257/.321/.405.

Due to Morejón spending so much time on the IL, he has managed to accrue more than four years of major league service time. That means that, despite his limited track record, he’s slated for free agency after 2026. But the missed time has also prevented him from increasing his earning power. He made $850K this year, barely above the $740K league minimum. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a modest bump to $1.8MM in 2025. He’d be able to secure one more arbitration raise for 2026 before hitting the open market.

That price point is important for the Padres. Due in part to the collapse of their broadcast deal with Diamond Sports Group, the club had to cut the payroll last winter. They flipped Juan Soto to the Yankees to help them duck under the competitive balance tax while also adding some needed starting pitching depth.

Starting pitching is again a concern for the Friars going into 2025, with the recent news that Joe Musgrove is set to miss all of next year recovering from Tommy John surgery. Michael King, Dylan Cease and Yu Darvish give the club a strong front three but they have question marks at the back end. Matt Waldron had a 3.71 ERA in the first half but an ugly 8.10 ERA in the second half. Randy Vásquez had a 4.87 ERA this year but with a tepid 14.4% strikeout rate and he also had an 8.21 ERA in his Triple-A starts. Musgrove will hopefully be back by 2026 but King and Cease are both slated for free agency after 2025, meaning there’s even less certainty in the future.

Improving the rotation will undoubtedly be a focus for president of baseball operations A.J. Preller this winter but the budget might again be an issue. The Friars already have an estimated $231MM CBT number for next year, according to RosterResource, just shy of next year’s $241MM base threshold. Assuming the club wants to avoid the tax again in 2025, that doesn’t give Preller a lot to work with and even back-end starters often get eight-figure deals in free agency. Last winter, Kyle Gibson got $13MM on a one-year deal, Lance Lynn got $11MM, Wade Miley and Alex Wood each got $8.5MM while Martín Pérez got $8MM.

In addition to filling out the rotation, Preller will be looking to replace lost offensive production. Each of Jurickson Profar, Ha-Seong Kim, Donovan Solano, David Peralta and Kyle Higashioka are slated to reach free agency, putting some notable dents in the lineup.

Given the club’s tight budget and long to-do list, it would be a great solution if Morejón could become a starter next year. That would be far cheaper than filling a rotation spot via the open market. There’s also the trade market but the Padres have sent out a lot of prospects in recent years and would probably love to avoid doing more of that, if possible.

But despite all the attraction of Morejón jumping into the rotation, there’s also the risk of another injury cropping up. In that scenario, it’s entirely possible that the Padres fall short of upgrading the rotation and also subtract a key lefty from the bullpen mix.

What do you think the Padres should do? Give him a shot at the rotation or stick with what’s working? Have your say in the poll below!

Where should the Padres put Adrián Morejón in 2025?
Bullpen 52.28% (824 votes)
Rotation 47.72% (752 votes)
Total Votes: 1,576
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