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MLBTR Polls

Does MLB’s Options Structure Need To Change?

By Steve Adams | August 23, 2019 at 11:04am CDT

Giants right-hander Jeff Samardzija recently crossed the 10-year threshold in terms of Major League service time and took the occasion to voice concerns about the difficulty today’s younger players will have in reaching that same milestone (link via Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle). More specifically, Samardzija wondered aloud how any young player can be expected to reach 10 years of big league service when modern front offices utilize the final spots on the MLB roster as a carousel of various relievers and bench players in an effort to keep their rosters fresh.

“These guys are being productive for our team but at the same time only getting 70 to 80 service days a season,” said Samardzija. “It’s going to take them till they’re 34, 35 or more to get six years, and then 40 to get 10 years. … We need to make sure one option can’t be 10 callups or call-downs where we can use them as swing guys who don’t accumulate any time.”

Samardzija’s precise wording is perhaps a bit embellished, but the sentiment is indeed reflective of today’s baseball climate. Players are optioned back and forth between the Majors and minors at a higher clip than ever before. The shift from a 15-day to a 10-day injured list — one that, notably, will be reversed for pitchers beginning in 2020 — in particular, has emboldened front offices to use brief trips to the IL as a means of resting pitchers and getting fresh arms into their bullpens or rotations when the need (often) arises. Rather than carrying a largely set seven- or eight-man bullpen, many clubs have only four to six set relievers and round out the final bullpen spots with a parade of changing faces.

As the league’s option structure is currently constructed, there’s nothing wrong with doing any of that. Maintaining that level of agility on a club’s roster is now generally viewed as a sound baseball practice, and with good reason. It’s easier to manage workloads in the minor leagues, and a constant churn at the back of the bullpen prevents clubs from having to trot the same pitcher out to the mound on three or even four consecutive days.

At the same time, the increased prevalence of optioning players in this fashion will eventually only increase the number of big leaguers who exhaust their minor league options, and that eventuality will the have the opposite effect of reducing teams’ roster flexibility. And for the players, of course, it does indeed become more difficult to garner substantial service time. The Yankees have sent left-hander Nestor Cortes Jr. back to Triple-A on seven different occasions this season. The Twins have done the same with Kohl Stewart. That’s a far better fate than merely sitting in the minors and not accruing any MLB time, but it’s also easy to see why players would argue that it’s a frustrating and suboptimal process that could be tweaked.

As things currently stand, players receive three option years (and, in rare cases stemming from significant minor league injuries, sometimes a fourth). Any player on the 40-man roster who is sent down to the minors and spends more than 20 days there is considered to have used an option year. He can be shuttled to and from the minors as often as the team deems fit that season all under the umbrella of that single option year.

As Schulman notes in the Samardzija interview, this very infrastructure is among the myriad topics being discussed as the league and the players’ union are in the early stages of collective bargaining negotiations. The current CBA runs through the 2021 season, so it’s unlikely that there’ll be any immediate changes to such a core component of roster construction, but the rising number of issues the players are bringing to the table in labor talks does seem like a portent for change in some respects. Surely, only a fraction of those issues will result in meaningful change, and the minor league option infrastructure is but one piece of the much broader topic of service time.

(Poll link for app users)

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Poll: Who Will Be The AL’s Wild Card Teams?

By Mark Polishuk | August 18, 2019 at 7:53pm CDT

The Twins hold a 2.5-game lead over the Indians in the AL Central after today’s action, and in addition to fighting for the division crown, both clubs are desperately trying to avoid facing even more competition in the AL wild card hunt.  Cleveland (74-51) is currently in possession of the top wild card spot, with the Rays (73-52) in the second slot, just a game behind.

Despite taking three of four games from the Astros, the Athletics are still 7.5 games behind Houston in the AL West, leaving the wild card as Oakland’s most realistic shot at a postseason berth.  The A’s (71-53) are 1.5 games behind the Rays.

Had this poll been posted even a couple of days ago, the Red Sox would likely have been omitted, yet a five-game winning streak merits them a mention.  Boston (67-59) is still 6.5 games behind Tampa Bay, and don’t have many head-to-head opportunities remaining against their division rivals, as the Sox and Rays only play four more times this season.  The Red Sox do have a three-game set against Minnesota on September 3-5 at Fenway Park.

The Twins have six critical September games lined up against the Tribe, but beyond those two series, Minnesota has a clear advantage over Cleveland in terms of benefiting from their weak division.  Twenty-six of the Twins’ remaining 38 games are against the White Sox, Royals, and Tigers, while the Indians only face the AL Central’s lesser lights 16 times in their final 37 games.

It all adds up to a wild final six weeks of action, particularly since injuries, roster shuffles, and players on both incredible hot streaks and cold streaks continue to change the narrative on a near-daily basis.  In particularly, all three non-AL Central teams face looming questions about their pitching staffs.  Can the A’s get their long-awaited influx of young pitching reinforcements once multiple arms return from the injured list?  Can the Rays get by three-fourths of their regular rotation (Blake Snell, Yonny Chirinos, Tyler Glasnow) still hurt?  Can the Red Sox mount a late-season comeback even as their own inconsistent rotation has suffered perhaps a critical blow?

Which two teams do you think will emerge from the fray to play in the one-game Wild Card playoff in October?  (Poll link for app users)

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Poll: Who Will Win The AL Central?

By Connor Byrne | August 16, 2019 at 6:40pm CDT

The two best teams in the American League Central brutalized their opponents on Thursday. The Twins crushed the Rangers, 13-6. The Indians pulled off an even more decisive victory, destroying the mighty Yankees by a 19-5 score. On the heels of those wins, Minnesota and Cleveland entered play Friday neck and neck in the division, which has largely been the case over the past couple weeks. The Twins hold a half-game lead over the Indians, the three-time reigning AL Central champions.

The fact that the race has gotten this close is somewhat hard to believe. For most of the season, the division has looked like the Twins’ in a runaway. They owned an 11-game edge over the Tribe as recently as June 15, but the Indians have chipped away since then. Despite the long-term absences of arguably their two top pitchers – Corey Kluber (out since May 1 with a fractured forearm) and Carlos Carrasco (out since May 30 because of leukemia) – the Indians have remained on the Twins’ heels. The Indians also traded away high-end starter Trevor Bauer prior to last month’s deadline, though they received immediate help for their lineup in outfielders Yasiel Puig and Franmil Reyes in return.

Cleveland’s starting staff, which should at least get Kluber back sometime soon, has gotten by mostly because of young sensation Shane Bieber and Mike Clevinger. Meanwhile, the ERAs of rookie Zach Plesac and Adam Plutko have far outperformed much weaker peripherals, while first-year right-hander Aaron Civale has been excellent over his first few starts. And the Indians’ lineup, which was a sore spot earlier in the season, has risen from the dead with help from Jose Ramirez and Jason Kipnis – both of whom struggled mightily at the outset of the campaign – among those complementing Carlos Santana and Francisco Lindor.

The Indians went into play Friday with 169 home runs – 67 fewer than the major league-leading Twins’ 236. Minnesota’s on track to breeze past the single-season record of 267 that the Yankees set just a year ago, but the Twins’ co-leader, designated Nelson Cruz (32 HRs), has been on the injured list since last week because of a strained wrist. Their lineup’s still in enviable shape – Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Mitch Garver, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario and Luis Arraez are among those enjoying standout seasons – but the team has nonetheless stopped operating at a breakneck pace. Since it held its 11-game lead over the Indians two months ago, Minnesota has gone a mediocre 26-26. Starters Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez have all slowed down to some degree as the season has moved along, while the Twins’ bullpen – despite the acquisitions of Sam Dyson and Sergio Romo before the deadline – hasn’t thrived.

Considering the Twins have been atop the AL Central throughout the year and currently lead the division, they’re the front-runners to take it this year. Indeed, FanGraphs gives the Twins a 60.6 percent chance to win the division and the Indians 39.4 percent odds. But it would be unwise to count out Cleveland, which has remarkably rallied to make it a legitimate race and still has six regular-season matchups left against Minnesota. Which of the two teams do you expect to win the division?

(Poll link for app users)

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MLBTR Poll: The NL East Bullpen Experience

By Jeff Todd | August 15, 2019 at 10:56am CDT

As I watched last night’s Braves-Mets game, the already fascinating NL East bullpen dynamics really came into view. Here we have four clubs — those two, plus the Nationals and Phillies — with big expectations and major core talent, all trying to get past season-long relief woes.

Odds are, none of these clubs will truly put the ’pen problems behind them between now and the end of the season. Even if one or more teams get on a relief roll, you just know that fans — and, quite likely, each club’s uniformed and non-uniformed personnel — will have near-constant butterflies as soon as the starter hits the showers.

Honestly, it’s exciting. The Braves still hold a commanding lead, but the Nats are close enough that they can’t assume anything. Plus, they have to hone their late-inning approach for the postseason. The other three clubs will obviously be going all out to eke out every possible win from here to the finish line, knowing full well how tight the Wild Card race (if not also the division) will be down the stretch.

The Nats and Mets have received brutal overall results from their relief units all season long. In terms of ERA, their units rank second and third-worst in baseball, surpassed only by the lowly Orioles in the frequency of earned-runs allowed. While the Nationals’ rightly-maligned unit has probably received the most attention, it is the only one of the four that checks in above replacement level (only barely) by measure of FIP-based fWAR. The Mets, Braves, and Phillies are all in the black by that metric. Of course, the Nats’ relief corps is the runaway league leader in net win-percentage deducted (as opposed to added), so it has well earned its reputation for unreliability.

Recent developments have shifted the picture, but haven’t necessarily improved the outlook. The Phillies’ health issues are worsening, with David Robertson down for the year and Adam Morgan recently hitting the shelf. Closer Hector Neris has at least been back on the upswing of late. The Mets’ steadiest reliever, Seth Lugo, was just roughed up last night; their most talented pen arm, Edwin Diaz, has still not emerged from his season-long doldrums. Both of those clubs forewent opportunities to improve at the deadline and have been picking up veterans discarded by other teams. The Nationals did make some notable but modest deadline acquisitions and have received good work from them so far. But overworked closer Sean Doolittle hasn’t been his reliable self and the unit as a whole remains quite underwhelming. While the Braves surely added the most pen talent at the deadline, their new arms have been anything but conquering heroes. Shane Greene, Mark Melancon, and Chris Martin have combined to allow 19 earned runs in 15 1/3 innings in Atlanta. As a whole, the Atlanta relievers have been particularly awful over the past thirty days.

Any way you cut it, it seems reasonable to expect that we’re in for a thrilling roller-coaster the rest of the way. If you had to take one of these bullpen units for the next six weeks and a potential postseason run thereafter, which would it be? (It bears emphasizing that “best” is a relative term.)

(Poll link for app users.)

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MLBTR Poll: J.D. Martinez’s Opt-Out Clause

By Connor Byrne | August 9, 2019 at 7:53am CDT

The offseason could come sooner than expected for the reigning World Series champion Red Sox, whose playoff chances have dwindled in the year’s second half. Losers of nine of their past 11, the Red Sox sit a stunning 16 games behind the Yankees in the AL East and 5 1/2 back of a wild-card spot. The club has already lost more games in 2019 (56) than it did last regular season (54), and it still has 45 games to go.

Boston’s fall certainly hasn’t been the fault of designated hitter J.D. Martinez, who has been on another of his signature offensive rampages of late. After four straight multi-hit games, his line has climbed to .304/.379/.547 – one of its highest points of the season. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, these may be the final weeks with the club for Martinez. He’ll dive back into free agency if he opts out of his contract after the season, though he’s far from a lock to abandon his deal.

Returning to the open market – where the former Astro, Tiger and Diamondback joined the Red Sox on a five-year, $110MM contract back in February 2018 – would mean leaving a substantial amount of money on the table. However, while Martinez will still have another three years and $62.5MM left when this season concludes, he’s not ruling out another stab at free agency. Martinez said last month he plans to leave his future in the hands of famed agent Scott Boras.

Based on his production, Martinez has a case for more money than he stands to earn on his current deal. Martinez was one of the game’s greatest hitters in the handful of years preceding his Boston deal, and that hasn’t changed. Although Martinez’s numbers have markedly fallen off compared to where they were from 2017-18, that’s more a compliment to his output then than an indictment on what he has done this year. With 25 home runs in 479 plate appearances, Martinez is on pace for his third straight year with at least 30 HRs. His wRC+ (136) is tied with Anthony Rizzo and Josh Bell for 19th among qualified hitters, and his .408 expected weighted on-base average ranks quite a bit higher. Only fellow offensive luminaries Mike Trout, Cody Bellinger, Nelson Cruz, Christian Yelich, Anthony Rendon, Yordan Alvarez and Aaron Judge rank above Martinez in that department.

It’s fair to say Martinez remains an absolute force at the plate, then, and it would surely help his cause that he’d be a big fish in a fairly small free-agent pond. Aside from Rendon, a fellow Boras client and the lone pending free-agent position player who looks like a shoo-in for a $100MM-plus contract, Martinez would be the second-most appealing hitter available. Still, the soon-to-be 32-year-old and Boras might be leery of taking advantage of his opt-out. Free agency has been tough on even highly decorated 30-somethings in recent years, especially those who come with qualifying offers attached (just ask Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel).

Martinez didn’t receive a QO in his previous trip to free agency because it came after a midseason trade, but the Red Sox would no doubt saddle him with one during the upcoming winter. Plus, although he remains among the majors’ most formidable hitters, that’s essentially where all of Martinez’s on-field value comes from. Formerly a regular in the outfield, he’s easily on pace for his second straight season of fewer than 500 innings in the grass. That doesn’t mean Martinez’s offense won’t continue to make him immensely valuable going forward – former Red Sox DH David Ortiz and the aforementioned Cruz are two examples of offense-only players who’ve been tremendous even in the twilight of their careers. The lack of a real position still won’t do Martinez’s market any favors, though, especially considering there aren’t any near-term plans for the National League to implement the DH.

There’s no easy answer here for the Martinez-Boras tandem, who can either choose the bird-in-hand route or take a gamble on his bat leading him to even more cash than he’s due on his present pact. Without question, it’ll be one of the most interesting early offseason situations to watch. As of now, how do you expect it to play out?

(Poll link for app users)

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Poll: Predict The NL’s Wild-Card Teams

By Connor Byrne | August 7, 2019 at 8:47pm CDT

We’re in for a riveting couple of months in the National League, where the majority of franchises at least have a glimmer of a chance at earning a wild-card berth. Four teams are within 2 1/2 games of the currently Max Scherzer-less Nationals for the top spot, while another four are 2 1/2 or fewer behind the Phillies for the league’s fifth and final playoff position. And we can’t even fully rule out the Giants, Reds, Padres or Rockies – teams that range from four to 7 1/2 behind the Phillies. The odds are strongly against anyone from the San Francisco-Cincinnati-San Diego-Colorado quartet making a miracle run, but nobody expected the long-slumbering Mets to suddenly rip off 13 wins in 14 games to put themselves in the thick of the race.

Despite a season loaded with turmoil, the Mets’ out-of-nowhere stretch of brilliance has placed them just a game back of the Phillies. According to FanGraphs, New York now has the second-highest odds of the NL’s wild-card contenders, trailing only the Nationals. The Phillies, Cardinals, Brewers, Diamondbacks and Reds check in next, though FanGraphs ranks their chances significantly lower than those of the Nats and Mets. The only club from that group that’s not at least .500 is Cincinnati. The Reds are a subpar 54-58, but they’ve won seven of 10 and did just add a pair of notable pitchers in Trevor Bauer and Kevin Gausman (the Bauer acquisition came at the expense of outfielder Yasiel Puig, though). Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks lost the best pitcher from an already thin staff, Zack Greinke, whom they traded to the Astros at last week’s deadline. Arizona brought in a respectable back-end starter in Mike Leake, but he’s no Greinke.

Arguably no current wild-card contender did more to improve at the deadline than the Mets, who reeled in Marcus Stroman to complement ace Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler near the top of their rotation. The majority of the other teams mentioned above also made deadline additions, but Bauer aside, Stroman may be the highest-upside pickup on paper.

MLBTR’s Jeff Todd asked Tuesday if the Mets would end up in the postseason, though the majority of voters said no. But if not them, then which two clubs will make it from the NL’s crowded field (one that could also include the division-leading Braves and Cubs)?

(Poll link for app users)

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MLBTR Poll: Will The Mets Make A Wild Run?

By Jeff Todd | August 6, 2019 at 10:47am CDT

An optimist might point out that the Mets now have the best record in baseball since they sent rookie slugger Pete Alonso out for an All-Star tater-mashing bonanza. A pessimist might counter that the club has mostly feasted on sub-par teams in doing so.

And a realist? He or she would focus on what’s truly notable about the New York club’s recent run: the fact that it puts the Mets back to within clear shouting distance of Wild Card position. These twenty-some-odd games didn’t really tell us much about the talent level of this team. They did change the math of the postseason picture.

Fangraphs’ projection-based postseason odds take a fairly favorable view of the Mets, valuing them as a .546 winning-percentage true-talent outfit. It is decidedly less enthused with the Cardinals, Phillies, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Reds, and Rockies … yet projects all of those clubs in the vicinity of .500. The view is notably dimmer on the Giants, but even in that case, we’re looking at a ~fifty game sample in which all kinds of good and bad fortune (run distribution, injuries, high-leverage happenstance, bad hops, missed calls, etc.) can and will intervene.

When reasonable go-forward expectations are so tightly clustered, the starting point in the standings matters quite a bit. That’s why the Mets and Phillies have near the same odds, by Fangraphs’ reckoning, with the former’s estimated true-talent advantage offset by the latter’s existing lead. The Mets have reeled in the pace-setters in the Wild Card race (less so the division), to the point that they’re one of the more plausible teams to land in the play-in game. (Per Fangraphs, the Citi Field denizens rank third among the five non-division-leaders that project to a 20%+ likelihood. 538 and especially B-Ref are less bullish on the Mets.)

Emerging from this jam-packed field will be a matter of exploiting small advantages, squeezing value from the dusty corners of the roster, making correct decisions and performing in the key moments. Do the Mets have an advantage with a loaded rotation? Or are they doomed by a leaky pen? Will their spunky young leaders continued to drive the bus, or struggle when they encounter late-season adjustments from newly attentive pitching staffs? Will GM Brodie Van Wagenen and manager Mickey Callaway pull the right levers and push the right buttons?

There are too many considerations to even begin listing them all. How do you think it’ll turn out? (Poll link for app users.)

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Poll: Grading The Marcus Stroman Trade

By Connor Byrne | July 29, 2019 at 8:25pm CDT

After weeks of trade rumors centering on longtime Blue Jays starter Marcus Stroman, the club found a taker for the right-hander Sunday. Toronto sent him to New York, which many anticipated would happen, but not to the NYC-based team anyone was expecting. Instead of shipping Stroman to the World Series-contending Yankees, the Blue Jays dealt him to a Mets team that’s five games under .500 (50-55), six back of wild-card position and will have to jump over five other NL hopefuls down the stretch to earn a playoff spot.

In all likelihood, Stroman won’t be part of a postseason-bound franchise this season. Nevertheless, the Mets decided it was worthwhile to surrender two prospects from an already below-average farm system for Stroman. The Mets gave up Triple-A left-hander Anthony Kay and Single-A righty Simeon Woods Richardson to land Stroman and his remaining year and a half of team control. Now, the Mets could turn around by Wednesday’s trade deadline and make significant subtractions from the rotation Stroman just joined. They did send lefty Jason Vargas to the Phillies on Monday, but the Mets have two much bigger fish – righties Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler – who have frequented the rumor mill of late.

There shouldn’t be pressure to move Syndergaard, who’s under control through 2021. However, Syndergaard would surely bring back more in a trade than Stroman, enabling the Mets to somewhat reload their farm after taking more pieces from it Sunday. Likewise, it’s not a must for the Mets to wave goodbye to Wheeler. Although the 29-year-old’s a pending free agent, the Mets could keep him and try to work out an extension – which has at least come up as a possibility. Alternatively, the team could retain Wheeler through the season and issue him a qualifying offer if it’s dissatisfied with the trade offers that come in this week.

For now, the top of the Mets’ 2020 rotation looks like this: Jacob deGrom, Syndergaard, Stroman. On paper, that would be one of the game’s most formidable trios, but we may never see them in action together.

Unlike the Mets, the Blue Jays aren’t aiming to contend in 2020, which is a major reason why they traded Stroman. Expectations were Stroman would fetch at least one ballyhooed top 100 prospect in a trade, but that didn’t end up happening.

In Kay, the Blue Jays picked up a near-to-the-majors 24-year-old whom Baseball America (subscription required) ranked as the Mets’ fourth-best prospect prior to the trade. The Mets chose Kay 31st overall in the 2016 draft, but he dealt with an elbow injury that year and then underwent Tommy John surgery in 2017. As a result, Kay didn’t pitch competitively for the organization until last year. However, with help from a fastball that can reach 96 mph, Kay has quickly ascended since debuting in 2018. He thrived at the Double-A level to begin this season before earning a promotion to the top of the minors. Kay has struggled in his first action at Triple-A, though, having put up a 6.61 ERA/6.22 FIP with 7.47 K/9, 3.16 BB/9 and a 30.2 percent groundball rate in 31 1/3 innings. He is now the Blue Jays’ fifth-ranked prospect in MLB.com’s estimation, which posits that Kay could find his niche as a “mid-rotation-type starter” in the bigs.

Meanwhile, MLB.com places Woods Richardson seventh among Toronto’s prospects. Just 18, a year removed from going in the second round of the draft, Woods Richardson has logged spectacular strikeout and walk numbers (11.14 K/9, 1.95 BB/9) with a 4.25 ERA/2.56 FIP and a 49.3 percent grounder rate in 20 starts and 78 1/3 innings at the Single-A level this season. He possesses “premium stuff and mound demeanor to spare,” according to BA, which rated him sixth among Mets farmhands.

Although they’re not premier prospects at the moment, there is optimism in regards to Kay and Woods Richardson evolving into long-term major leaguers. The Mets opted for the surer bet in Stroman, however, and are now evidently hoping he’ll help them to a playoff berth in 2020 (if not a miraculous run this season). But it’s up for debate whether New York should have traded for Stroman, especially considering the team may now weaken the rotation it just strengthened by parting with Syndergaard and-or Wheeler.

How do you think the two teams made out in this deal? (Poll links for app users)

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Poll: Trading Felipe Vazquez

By Connor Byrne | July 23, 2019 at 6:42pm CDT

Losers of eight of 10 since the All-Star break, the Pirates’ already slim playoff hopes have taken a beating over the past week-plus. At 46-53, they’re six games out of a wild-card spot and 7 1/2 behind the National Central-leading Cubs. Only three NL teams have worse records than the Pirates, who will have to jump seven clubs in order to earn a playoff position. It’s probably safe to say they’re going to extend their postseason drought to four years in 2019.

This happens to be the fourth season in Pittsburgh for reliever Felipe Vazquez, though he’s obviously not to blame for the team’s ongoing struggles. In fact, since the Pirates acquired the flamethrowing left-hander from the Nationals in a deal for veteran reliever Mark Melancon in July 2016, Vazquez has evolved into one of the majors’ premier late-game options. Vazquez was downright exceptional over the previous two seasons, but this may go down as his best campaign to date. The 28-year-old has pitched to a dominant 1.91 ERA/2.02 FIP with 14.03 K/9 against 2.34 BB/9 in 42 1/3 innings, adding 21 saves on 22 tries for good measure.

Considering Vazquez’s brilliance, not to mention the Pirates’ woes, there is a case they should consider parting with him before the July 31 deadline. The fact that Vazquez is controllable over the next few seasons for team-friendly salaries would help enable the Pirates to land an enormous return for him. The club shrewdly signed the strikeout artist formerly known as Felipe Rivero to a four-year, $22MM extension months before the 2018 season. He’s under wraps through at least 2021 as a result, though the way his career’s going, it looks like a sure thing right now that his employer will exercise $10MM club options in 2022 and ’23. Granted, those decisions are a long distance off, and considering the volatility of relievers, Vazquez could turn into a pumpkin by then. Perhaps that’s another reason to sell high on Vazquez now. But general manager Neal Huntington doesn’t seem to agree. Huntington has shot down the possibility of a Vazquez trade twice this month, noting both times that he expects the two-time All-Star to be indispensable to the Pirates’ next playoff team.

“Our expectation and anticipation is that Felipe will be closing out playoff games, be it this year or in the future with us,” Huntington said on July 1.

Unlike back then, the Pirates’ season now looks as if it’s close to flatlining. Nevertheless, Huntington remains steadfast in his desire to keep Vazquez, having said this past weekend that “we always have to entertain ways to make this organization — and ideally this current club — better. Sometimes you make the future clubs better, but we fully anticipate Felipe will be closing the next playoff games that we’re a part of.”

It certainly wouldn’t be indefensible on Pittsburgh’s part to retain Vazquez, who’s magnificent and affordable (all the more important for a low-spending franchise). On the other hand, Vazquez would probably be the best relief trade chip in the game if the Pirates were to shop him over the next week. What should they do?

(Poll link for app users)

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Trade Candidate Faceoff: Bauer Vs. Stroman Vs. Minor

By Connor Byrne | July 20, 2019 at 2:01am CDT

Indians right-hander Trevor Bauer, Blue Jays righty Marcus Stroman and Rangers lefty Mike Minor have been among the most popular names in the rumor mill in advance of the July 31 trade deadline. All three are quality starters who are under control through 2020, so a slew of contenders have predictably shown serious interest in each of them. But who’s the most desirable of the trio?

Perhaps it’s the 28-year-old Bauer, who started his major league career in 2012 with the Diamondbacks. The third pick in the 2011 draft, Bauer was something of a can’t-miss prospect coming up. It took him longer than expected to find his footing in the majors, though, and it didn’t happen in Arizona. It occurred in Cleveland, which acquired Bauer in a three-team trade prior to the 2013 season. Bauer was a useful starter with the Indians from his first full season in 2014 through 2017, but he truly put it all together last year. Across 175 1/3 innings, Bauer notched a 2.21 ERA/2.44 FIP with 11.34 K/9 and 2.93 BB/9 en route to a sixth-place finish in the AL Cy Young voting.

Bauer probably won’t wind up in Cy Young contention this season, though he has turned in another above-average performance. No major league starter has amassed more innings than Bauer, who has delivered 144 2/3 frames of 3.67 ERA/4.29 FIP pitching with 10.58 K/9 against 3.48 BB/9. But home runs have been a major problem for Bauer compared to last year, when he yielded them on just 6.2 percent of fly balls. The rate has shot to 15.2 this season, while Bauer’s groundball percentage has shrunk from 44.5 to 38.5. He is, however, averaging a personal-best 94.8 mph on his four-seam fastball.

Stroman, also 28, has never encountered trouble racking up grounders in the majors. Since debuting in 2014, Stroman has posted a tremendous 59.7 percent grounder rate, including 57.9 this year. The ability to induce worm burners has long made Stroman effective at preventing runs, even though he’s hardly a strikeout-heavy pitcher. Stroman has fanned just over seven per nine in his career and this season, and has also logged a sub-3.00 BB/9 during those spans. The package of skills has helped Stroman to a praiseworthy 3.06 ERA/3.60 FIP in 117 2/3 innings this season.

Minor, 31, fared nicely as a Braves starter from 2010-14, but injuries knocked his career off course thereafter and kept him out of action from 2015-16. When he returned the next season with the Royals, Minor was a reliever – and an excellent one at that. But after signing a three-year, $28MM contract with the Rangers going into 2018, he returned to a starting role. The results were closer to average than exceptional then, though Minor has made notable strides since. His ERA’s an outstanding 2.86, albeit with a less inspiring 4.08 FIP, in 129 innings. Minor fanned 10 Astros and walked one in seven innings of a losing effort Friday, improving his K/9 to 9.14 and his BB/9 to 3.14. Although Minor hurt his cause by allowing four home runs, he has generally kept the long ball at bay this season.

It’s clear Bauer, Stroman and Minor are all appealing starters, but one can’t simply compare their performances when talking about them as trade candidates. Their salaries also play a key part in the discussion. Bauer’s easily the most expensive of the group this year ($13MM) and could end up in the $18MM to $20MM range during his final trip to arbitration over the winter. Minor comes in next at $9.5MM, but another $9.5MM salary is already etched in stone for 2020. Stroman’s making $7.4MM this season, though he’ll certainly join Bauer in getting a raise in his last year of arbitration.

Weighing all the factors – performance, age, price and what you think each would cost in a trade – which of these hurlers would you most want to acquire in the next week and a half?

(Poll link for app users)

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Cleveland Guardians MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays Marcus Stroman Mike Minor Trevor Bauer

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