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Poll: Kyle Tucker’s Earning Power

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The biggest news from the baseball world of late is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s $500MM extension with the Blue Jays, which will keep him in Toronto through the end of the 2039 season. Guerrero and Kyle Tucker were widely viewed as the top free agents of the coming offseason. Now that Guerrero is off the board, the top of the mountain belongs to Tucker, the superstar outfielder who the Cubs gave up a massive package (All-Star infielder Isaac Paredes, young starter Hayden Wesneski, and first-rounder Cam Smith) to acquire ahead of his final year of team control.

Tucker’s certainly validated that belief in him as an impact player during the early going this season. A career .276/.356/.520 hitter, he’s taken his game to an even higher level recently. Tucker emerged as an early-season MVP candidate last year before being limited to just 78 games by a fractured shin, but even in his last 250 games dating back to 2023, the 28-year-old is hitting .288/.387/.548 with a wRC+ of 157. That’s the fifth-highest figure among all hitters with at least 1,000 plate appearances during that time, trailing only Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, and former teammate Yordan Alvarez.

That lofty company, combined with the huge expectations created by $700MM+ deals for the top-rated free agent in back-to-back offseasons, created plenty of intrigue about where Guerrero’s contract could end up prior to his extension with the Jays. His $500MM deal falls short of that $700MM mark both Ohtani and Soto reached, although Ohtani’s deal includes massive amounts of deferred money that make it lower than Guerrero’s pact in terms of net present value. Questions remain, however, about how Tucker’s own eventual deal will compare to those names. Notably, Tucker doesn’t have the sort of standout carrying tool that other top stars have. He’s not a threat to hit 60 homers like Judge, lacks Soto’s otherworldly strike zone recognition, and certainly isn’t the sort of once-in-a-century athlete Ohtani has proved himself to be.

With all that being said, however, Tucker gets to that elite tier of production by being well above average at just about everything. Among hitters with at least 1000 plate appearances over the past three seasons, Tucker’s barrel rate (11.7%) is top-30 in the majors, and his isolated slugging percentage is seventh best. He combined that excellent power with similarly excellent plate discipline; his 14.1% strikeout rate is the eleventh-lowest, while his 13.8% walk rate is fourth behind Judge, Soto, and Kyle Schwarber. While Soto remains the only player to walk more often than he strikes out, the 0.3% difference between Tucker’s strikeout and walk rates is the smallest among the rest of the league.

Tucker’s talent in the batters’ box is further augmented by strong work in other areas of the game. He’s a well-regarded defender in right field who won the AL’s Gold Glove award at the position in 2019, and while he’s not shown an ability to play a premium position like center field, it seems unlikely that he’ll need to make a move down the defensive spectrum to DH or first base any time soon. He’s also proved to be a solid contributor on the bases. Despite middling foot speed, Tucker has managed to log 91 steals in 102 attempts since the start of the 2020 season. That’s good for a phenomenal 89.2% success rate, and includes 25- and 30-steal efforts during the 2022 and ’23 campaigns. Tucker was well on his way to another 20+ steal season in 2024 before being sidelined by injury, and with three bags swiped in just 15 games this year it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him steal more than his fair share of extra bases this season as well.

Given Tucker’s all-around impressive skill set, it’s not hard to see why teams will be clamoring to bring him into the fold this winter. There’s even a fairly strong argument to be made that Tucker is a more valuable player than Guerrero, given that their career numbers are relatively similar at the dish and Tucker is a far more valuable player in the field and on the basepaths. With that being said, Tucker’s age could hold him back somewhat relative to the deals landed by Soto and Guerrero. Soto hit free agency ahead of his age-26 season, while Guerrero is currently in the midst of his own age-26 campaign. Tucker, who turned 28 in January, is two years older than Guerrero and will be marketing himself three years older than Soto was this past offseason.

It’s possible that could keep him below that half-billion dollar threshold that only Guerrero and Soto have managed to reach by measure of net present value, but he could still be in for a massive payday. After all, Judge landed $360MM over nine years in free agency when marketing his age-31 season, while Ohtani was roughly the same age as Tucker when he landed his contract, which has a net present value of just under $461MM for luxury tax purposes. Marquee Sports Network’s Lance Brozdowski reported on his Cubs Daily Podcast earlier this week that a person from Tucker’s agency, Excel Sports Management, suggested an estimate of $475MM over ten years for Tucker’s eventual contract. That figure obviously comes with caveats aplenty given that the source is Tucker’s own agency and he’s just 15 games into his platform season, but that number would top both Judge and Ohtani’s contracts in terms of NPV.

How do MLBTR readers believe Tucker’s contract situation will play out? Will he be able to crack the $500MM threshold that only Soto and Guerrero have crossed so far? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Should The Braves Extend Spencer Schwellenbach?

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He has only made two starts this season, but it’s impossible not to be impressed. Spencer Schwellenbach has thrown 14 innings without giving up a run. Indeed, he hasn’t thrown so much as a single pitch with a runner in scoring position. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 14 to one. His groundball rate is 60%. He has allowed 30 batted balls and not one of them has been barreled. According to Baseball Savant, the righty has thrown six distinct pitches at least 10% of the time, and five of them have a positive run value. All told, his +9 pitching run value is the best in the sport. Two starts make for a tiny sample size, but like I said, it’s impossible not to be impressed by what Schwellenbach has done.

Of course, the 24-year-old is used to being impressive. Before the 2025 season began, he was mowing down opponents in the Grapefruit League, striking out 28 batters in 21 innings while pitching to a 3.00 ERA. Before that, he was a breakout stud in his rookie season, putting up a 3.35 ERA, 3.42 SIERA, and 2.6 FanGraphs WAR over 21 starts. Before that, he was a consensus top-five prospect in Atlanta’s system. Across 24 minor league starts at Single-A, High-A, and Double-A from 2023-24, he threw 110 innings with a 2.21 ERA and 3.01 FIP. He skipped Triple-A to make his big league debut last May and never looked back.

With less than one season of service time under his belt, Schwellenbach already finds himself a key member of the Braves’ rotation. Spencer Strider is still working his way back from elbow surgery. Reynaldo López will miss most of the season. Chris Sale remains the ace of the staff, but he’s 36 years old, injury-prone, and has looked unusually mortal to start the year. It remains unclear how much Atlanta will be able to count on top prospects AJ Smith-Shawver and Hurston Waldrep, former All-Star Bryce Elder, and 2024 breakout arm Grant Holmes. Having Schwellenbach to rely on every fifth game will be critical as the Braves look to make up ground in the NL East following a 2-8 start to the season.

As Schwellenbach continues to impress – and as Atlanta continues to be reminded of the importance of reliable, top-end starting pitching – perhaps it’s time for president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos to start thinking about extending the right-hander. It might seem early to be talking about an extension for Schwellenbach. Then again, the Braves extended Strider shortly after his rookie season in 2022. At that time, he had 20 big league starts and 134 innings under his belt. Schwellenbach doesn’t have quite as much MLB service time as Strider did when he signed his extension, but he has now thrown more innings (137 2/3). Meanwhile, Michael Harris II was just 71 games into his big league career when he signed an extension with Atlanta in August 2022. As a position player, Harris is not quite as strong of a comp for Schwellenbach. Regardless, the key point is that this front office doesn’t have any qualms about extending players with limited big league service time. In fact, that’s part of the appeal for the Braves, who also extended Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies quite early on in their careers. The point of these extensions is to offer talented young players immediate financial security in exchange for additional years of team control down the line. If Schwellenbach keeps pitching this way, his asking price is only going to climb, and the chances that he would be willing to give up any of his future free agent years will diminish.

With that said, the Braves have awarded far fewer long-term extensions to pitchers than to position players. For instance, they notably did not extend two-time All-Star Max Fried, who left for the Yankees in free agency this past offseason. Dating back to the 2006 season, the Braves have only given out three guaranteed multi-year extensions to starting pitchers: Strider’s six-year, $75MM deal in 2022; Julio Teheran’s six-year, $32.4MM deal in 2014; and Tim Hudson’s three-year, $28MM deal in 2009. What’s more, the Strider extension has not exactly gone according to plan thus far. While he won 20 games and earned Cy Young votes in 2023, he has made just two starts since the beginning of the 2024 season after damaging his UCL. It’s also worth noting that the Braves have seen many young pitchers get off to promising starts only to fizzle out soon after, whether due to injury or underperformance. That includes arms like Ian Anderson, Michael Soroka, Kyle Wright, and Elder. Perhaps all that will make them a bit more cautious when it comes to Schwellenbach.

As for what a Schwellenbach extension might look like, we can turn to several recent comps. Since Strider inked his deal in October 2022, four more starters with fewer than two years of service time have signed multi-year extensions. Schwellenbach can almost surely ask for more than Cristopher Sánchez’s four-year, $22.5MM guarantee, though he is unlikely to command as much as Strider. The other three extensions – for Hunter Greene, Brayan Bello, and Brandon Pfaadt – were all for somewhere between $45MM and $55MM in guaranteed money over five or six years (with at least one club option). Schwellenbach has arguably had more big league success than any of those pitchers did when they signed their extensions. However, he doesn’t have as much experience as Pfaadt or Bello, nor did he ever have the prospect pedigree of Greene. Still, the preseason ZiPS, Steamer, and PECOTA projections envisioned Schwellenbach to be roughly as valuable, if not more so, than all three of those arms. With that in mind, a six-year deal (that would buy out Schwellenbach’s first free agent season) with an AAV around $9MM and at least one club option would be a logical starting point for negotiations.

Do MLBTR readers think the Braves should offer Schwellenbach an extension? Perhaps you think Atlanta needs to act fast and extend him now before his star shoots any higher. Or perhaps you think the Braves would be smarter to wait until the young right-hander has proven himself over a larger sample of starts. Have your say in the poll below:

 

Photo courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel, Imagn Images

Poll: Will Bo Bichette Stay In Toronto?

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The big news around baseball this week is superstar slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. sticking in Toronto on a $500MM extension that will keep him with the Blue Jays for the next 14 years. While the deal is primarily notable because of Guerrero himself being one of the brightest young stars in the game whose free agency had long been anticipated by fans around the league, it’s also the most firm statement yet from the Blue Jays that they fully intend to continue attempting to compete even amid an increasingly difficult AL East division.

Entering Spring Training, the club had a number of key players set to come off the books within the next few seasons. That’s still the case for the majority of those players, with important pieces like Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, George Springer, and Daulton Varsho poised to hit the open market within the next two seasons. With that being said, the club’s offseason additions of Andres Gimenez and Anthony Santander combine with their recent extensions for Guerrero and Alejandro Kirk to give the club a talented nucleus of position players to build a new iteration of the club around with pre-arb and early arbitration players like Ernie Clement, Bowden Francis, and Will Wagner helping to further build out that foundation.

With nearly two full seasons until Gausman, Springer, and Varsho depart for free agency, it’s not entirely clear what the Jays’ needs will look like by the time that comes around. Toronto’s impending losses of Bassitt, Scherzer, and Green come November will surely need to be addressed, but most teams need pitching every winter and replacing those players should be fairly straightforward. With Guerrero signed, that leaves the most pertinent question facing Toronto at this point as what to do with shortstop Bo Bichette. The 27-year-old was a consensus top-15 prospect in the sport when he came up to the majors back in 2019 and has spent most of his career paired with Guerrero as one of the club’s two up-and-coming stars.

While Bichette has never had the MVP-caliber campaigns Guerrero posted during the 2021 and ’24 seasons, the hype surrounding him has largely been justified by his body of work in the majors. In 46 games down the stretch in 2019 after a mid-season call-up, Bichette made a big impression by slashing .311/.358/.571 with a 143 wRC+ and 11 homers in just 212 plate appearances. A 29-game stint with Toronto during the shortened 2020 season saw him come down to Earth just a bit as he posted a 120 wRC+, but that level of production proved to be very sustainable for Bichette as his first full three seasons saw him slash .298/.339/.476 with a 125 wRC+ and 13.6 fWAR.

From 2021 to ’23, Bichette was sandwiched between Yordan Alvarez and Sean Murphy on the fWAR leaderboard, good for 22nd in baseball, and his 125 wRC+ allowed him to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with top infielders like Trea Turner and Alex Bregman. Between those strong numbers and his relative youth, Bichette seemed certain to be ticketed for a large payday with the only question being whether it would come in Toronto or elsewhere. Unfortunately, the 2024 season threw all of that completely off the rails. Not only was Bichette limited to just 81 games last year due to multiple calf strains and surgery on his middle finger, but he also struggled badly in the games he was healthy enough to partake in. In 336 trips to the plate last year, Bichette slashed just .225/.277/.322 (71 wRC+).

A look under the hood reveals that Bichette’s strikeout and walk rates were both as good as they’d ever been last year, but he was completely sapped of his power. He hit just four home runs after regularly flashing 25-to-30 homer power in previous years. His .303 xwOBA suggested that he was getting somewhat unlucky in terms of batted ball luck, and that likely contributed to a career-worst .269 BABIP. While a batting average closer to his xBA of .255 would have surely helped his overall production look a bit more robust, the expected numbers aren’t all that kind in the power department. His xSLG was just .375, which while better than his actual production last season, would’ve been well below average if he had enough plate appearances to qualify. That’s in large part thanks to a massive drop-off in barrel rate. Bichette barreled up just 4.4% of his batted balls last year, less than half of his career norm across the rest of his career.

A mediocre defender at shortstop even in his best years, Bichette’s value is so tied to his bat that last season’s struggles made it difficult to imagine him finding the star-level contract in free agency without a big bounceback in the 2025 campaign. Despite both Bichette himself and the Blue Jays as a whole failing to meet expectations last year, Toronto opted not to trade him ahead of his final year under team control, betting on him to regain his form this season. There’s still a long way to go in this season, but the early returns are looking good on that decision. Bichette’s .277/.333/.362 (103 wRC+) slash line entering play today is still pedestrian but nonetheless a big improvement over last year, and more importantly he’s resumed hitting the ball with authority (7.3% barrel rate, 46.3% Hard-Hit rate) in a way that mostly aligns with his career norms.

While it’s certainly good news for both Bichette and the Blue Jays that the shortstop appears to be back to posting quality offensive numbers, what that means for his future is uncertain. There’s some similarities to Cody Bellinger in Bichette’s profile as a free agent, as the two players share All-Star caliber upside as bat-first options at a premium defensive position that could make them very attractive in free agency, but pair that upside with worrisome injury-riddled campaigns where they looked like below-replacement level talents. During the 2023-24 offseason, Bellinger was limited to a short-term deal by the market, though his three-year, $80MM pact with the Cubs afforded him a healthy AAV and multiple opt-out opportunities. Bellinger was marketing his age-28 season that winter just like Bichette would be come November, though a distinct lack of high-end positional talent in free agency this winter (outside of star outfielder Kyle Tucker) could allow Bichette to find a stronger market.

Still, that market uncertainty could be part of why the Jays have not broached the possibility of an extension with their shortstop. Bichette told reporters back in February that the sides hadn’t had talks, and he reiterated to Hazel Mae of Sportsnet yesterday that “nothing’s on the table”  for him from the Blue Jays in terms of an extension. Bichette has made it clear he’d like to remain in Toronto, citing a desire to play for a single organization throughout his entire career and continue his partnership with Guerrero. If Bichette proves himself healthy and effective again this year, that could make plenty of sense for a Blue Jays club that will need more offensive firepower than it got last year even after adding Santander to the mix. On the other hand, the Blue Jays already have a luxury tax payroll of $200MM for 2026 (per RosterResource) before even considering arbitration-level contracts for players like Varsho and Clement.

That could make adding another big salary to the books difficult for the Blue Jays to stomach, and the club has seemingly set itself up to better stomach the loss of Bichette by trading for Gimenez. The 26-year-old has played the vast majority of his big league games at second base, but he has shortstop experience and is regarded as perhaps the best defensive second baseman in the entire sport, suggesting he should have little trouble sliding over to the left side of the infield. Given Bichette’s aforementioned mediocre defense at short, Gimenez could actually prove to be an upgrade at the position in terms of his glove.

That would then mean needing to replace Gimenez at second base and Bichette’s bat in the lineup, however. A big season from Wagner this year could make that possible to do internally. Other internal options who could help out include Davis Schneider, Addison Barger, Orelvis Martinez and Leo Jimenez. In terms of external options, this coming offseason has infielders like Gleyber Torres, Ha-Seong Kim, Alex Bregman and Trevor Story as possibilities, depending on some opt-out decisions.

How do MLBTR readers think the situation in Toronto will play out? Will Bichette be allowed to hit free agency? And, if so, will he be playing in Toronto or elsewhere come Opening Day 2026? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Automated Ball-Strike System In MLB

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After years of fans and people around the game alike advocating for it, the automated ball-strike system was implemented in big league Spring Training this year. That was widely believed to portend its arrival in the majors, which MLB commissioner Rob Manfred all but confirmed in an interview published yesterday where he suggested that the system could be in regular season games as soon as the 2026 season, pending approval from the MLBPA. With that being said, Manfred suggested that the details of how ABS is implemented into the majors could wind up being collectively bargained. If that’s the case, its implementation could be delayed until after the upcoming CBA negotiations following the 2026 season.

During Spring Training, a challenge system was used not unlike the one already utilized in the majors for instant replay on the bases. Each team started the game with two challenges available to them, and would retain their challenge after using it successfully or lose it after using it incorrectly. As noted by Ronald Blum of the Associated Press just before Opening Day, teams challenged 2.6% of called pitches during the spring with just over four challenges per game and a success rate of 52.2% overall. If those numbers were to hold, that would mean the ABS challenge system overturns just two ball-strike calls in the average regular season game.

While official reports on the accuracy of ball-strike calls from MLB umpires are not available, a report published by Boston University’s Mark T. Williams that looked at the issue back in 2019 using data from the 2018 campaign suggested that MLB umpires made 14 incorrect ball-strike calls per game that year. If that figure holds true into today, that would mean that the challenge system overturns less than 15% of incorrect ball-strike calls made. What’s more, Williams’s report suggests that umpires tend to make more mistakes in certain situations, such as calling true balls as strikes in two-strike counts. Despite that, there’s nothing in Blum’s data to suggest that more calls got overturned in those sorts of key situations than usual. While teams challenged 6.9% of full count calls, just 44% of those challenges were correct.

Given the relative lack of impact felt by the presence of the challenge system this spring, it’s easy to wonder if perhaps using a fully automated system that entirely removes umpire discretion from the equation would be preferable. It’s hard to dispute that it would lead to more accurately called games, which could have a far more significant impact on outcomes than the challenge system had during Spring Training. Manfred suggested in yesterday’s interview that umpires themselves would actually prefer a fully automated system to the challenge system currently being used, perhaps because it would avoid putting a spotlight on their mistakes.

On the other hand, it’s open for debate whether or not taking ABS to that level would be truly preferable. Incorrect calls aren’t necessarily innately bad; after all, fans, players, managers, and umpires have worked with a somewhat nebulous definition of the strike zone since the advent of baseball itself. What any individual thinks of as the strike zone is unlikely to be perfectly identical to the zone used in ABS, and that’s supported by the fact that nearly half of challenges made to umpire calls wound up being incorrect. That suggests players aren’t always more in tune with what the true strike zone looks like than umpires are, and a move to fully automated ball-strike calls could be a jarring adjustment for both pitchers and hitters as they adapt to a more accurate but wildly unfamiliar strike zone.

That could be part of why the players, according to Manfred, prefer a challenge system to fully automated ball-strike calls. Another factor in the players’ preference for a challenge system could be how full ABS would change the catcher position. Pitch framing has long been a key aspect of catcher defense behind the plate, and it’s become even more focused upon over the past decade. Players with elite framing skills like Jeff Mathis and Austin Hedges have managed to make careers out of their ability to steal strikes for their pitchers over the years, but a fully automated strike zone cannot be influenced by pitch framing.

A challenge system, meanwhile, still allows them to use their framing prowess to convince umpires (as well as a hitter considering a challenge) that a true ball was a strike. It even adds another level of intrigue to the catcher position, as Blum notes that catchers had the highest success rate when challenging ball-strike calls this spring. Catchers successfully overturned 56% of challenged ball-strike calls, compared to exactly 50% for hitters and just 41% for pitchers. Given the wide disparity between catchers and pitchers in terms of success rate at challenge ball-strike calls, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see most clubs have their catchers handle the majority of ball-strike calls when on defense under a challenge system.

How do MLBTR readers think the implementation of ABS should be handled? Should the league stick with the challenge system used in Spring Training despite its relatively low impact, or go to a fully-automated system despite potential player objections? Or perhaps you believe that ABS shouldn’t be used in the majors at all? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Do Season-Opening Streaks Carry Extra Weight?

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MLB’s regular season is officially underway, and clubs are already in the thick of the race to the postseason. One of the biggest storylines of the season so far has surrounded three teams that have gone streaking to open the year. The Dodgers (8-0) and Padres (7-0) have both yet to lose a game, while the Braves (0-7) have yet to win after opening the season against those two clubs. Those streaks have led to all three clubs getting plenty of attention, particularly the Dodgers as they became the first team in MLB history to follow up a World Series championship by starting the next season with eight straight wins.

Perhaps even more focus has been placed on Atlanta, however, as the club was widely expected entering the season to be a top contender for not only the NL East, but also the World Series this year. Though the club finished second to the Phillies in a recent MLBTR poll about who would win the division this year, Atlanta received 32% of the vote, nearly double the third-place Mets’ 18% figure. The playoff odds at Fangraphs told an even rosier story, as the club was given a 93.2% chance to make the playoffs prior to the season beginning, as well as a 63.7% chance at winning the division and a 15.7% chance at a World Series championship that was second only to the Dodgers themselves.

The club’s 0-7 start has caused those odds to plummet, however, as Fangraphs now affords the Braves just a 70.5% chance at making the postseason, with a 32.6% chance at winning the division and a 9.1% chance to win the World Series. It’s a steep drop for just one week of games, and by contrast the Padres have seen their projected fortunes improve just as much, going from a 30.6% chance to make the postseason heading into Opening Day all the way up to a 54.4% chance entering play today. Even the pessimistic playoff odds the Braves are facing don’t hold a candle to the perception of many fans and media members, however. Much has been made of the fact that no team in baseball history has recovered from a 0-7 start to make the postseason, and that the 1980 Braves (81-80) and 1983 Astros (85-77) are the only clubs to even finish with a winning record.

With that being said, however, it must be noted that this only applies to teams that began the season with a 0-7 record. Plenty of teams have made the playoffs with seven-game losing streaks on their resumes, particularly in recent years as the postseason has begun to expand. Just last year, the Royals made the playoffs with two separate seven-game losing streaks to their names. The 2017 Dodgers infamously suffered a 1-16 stretch that included an 11-game losing streak before turning things around and making it to Game Seven of the World Series.

Of course, that’s not to say all of the sentiments surrounding these clubs are built on the biases that could surround a small-sample performance. The Dodgers were viewed around the league as the best team in baseball well before the 2025 season began, not only because they won the World Series last year but also because they aggressively improved the club by adding Blake Snell, Tanner Scott, and Roki Sasaki (among others) this winter. Meanwhile, concerns about Atlanta’s path into the postseason this year could be argued to have just as much to do with a deep group of potential playoff teams in the NL, the PED suspension of Jurickson Profar, and shoulder surgery for Reynaldo Lopez as they do the team’s actual record on the field.

It also can’t be entirely dismissed that some streaks have more impact on a club’s future competitiveness than others. Naturally, large swings in the standings are more likely to have a relative impact in the first half of the year than the second half, as they can factor into the decisions club executives make over the summer regarding whether to buy or sell at the trade deadline. That impacts the overall talent level of a club in a way that streaks such as the aforementioned strings of losses suffered by the 2017 Dodgers and 2024 Royals, all of which occurred after that season’s deadline, simply cannot replicate.

Where do MLBTR readers fall on this topic? Are the strings of wins the Dodgers and Padres are presently enjoying and the string of losses in Atlanta more meaningful than they would be if they occurred later in the season instead? Or does the fact that every game counts the same in the standings at the end of the season mean it’s no different than any other streak? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Who Will Win The AL East?

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Opening Day has finally arrived, and teams all around the league are gearing up for another pennant chase in hopes of being crowned this year’s World Series champion. Of course, there’s still another seven months to go before someone raises the Commissioner’s Trophy. Until the playoffs begin, teams will be focused on a smaller goal: winning their division. We have been conducting a series of polls to gauge who MLBTR readers believe is the favorite in each division. That series has already covered the National League, with the Dodgers, Cubs, and Phillies each coming out on top in their respective divisions. In the American League, meanwhile, the Rangers and Tigers have been voted as the favorites to win their respective divisions. The final division left to cover in this series is the AL East. Teams are listed in order of their 2024 record.

New York Yankees (94-68)

The reigning league champion can never be counted out as a contender for their division, and that’s certainly true when it comes to a franchise with as strong of a history as the Yankees. With that being said, it’s difficult to argue the club is better on paper today than it was a year ago. 2024’s club was largely built around the presence of three superstars: Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and Gerrit Cole. While Judge is still crushing baseballs in the Bronx as reliably as ever, Soto departed for Queens on a massive $765MM pact over the winter while Cole underwent Tommy John surgery last month and will miss the entire 2025 season. The losses of Soto and Cole are a major blow to the club’s lineup and rotation, and the latter has been further dented by injuries suffered by Clarke Schmidt and Luis Gil while the former is exacerbated by the absence of Giancarlo Stanton.

That’s not to say the club has no reasons for optimism, however. All of Stanton, Gil, and Schmidt could return at some point during the first half, with Schmidt in particular likely to be back in the rotation later this month. The addition of star southpaw Max Fried offers the club a suitable stand-in ace for Cole this season even after a somewhat middling debut in pinstripes, while an offensive nucleus of Judge, Cody Bellinger, Paul Goldschmidt, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. should score plenty of runs even without Soto, especially if Goldschmidt can turn back the clock during his age-37 season. That’s before even mentioning their elite bullpen, which was top three in the AL last year even before this winter’s upgrade from Clay Holmes to Devin Williams in the ninth inning. Even with the loss of Soto and their many early season injuries, the Yankees cannot be ruled out to repeat at the top of the division.

Baltimore Orioles (91-71)

After a second consecutive playoff appearance with zero wins to show for it, some fans in Baltimore are starting to get antsy. New owner David Rubenstein’s first offseason at the helm of the club came with big expectations that the club would step away from the frugality of recent years and commit more strongly to contention, and in some ways that did happen. The club replaced Anthony Santander’s power in the lineup by bringing in Tyler O’Neill on the first multi-year guarantee the club has made since Mike Elias took over baseball operations, and went about upgrading an already-strong offense in other ways by bringing in Gary Sanchez and Ramon Laureano. Considering the Orioles already have a phenomenal offensive nucleus built around players like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg, and Colton Cowser, those upgrades should give them among the most fearsome lineups in the sport.

That aggressiveness in bolstering the offense was not matched on the pitching side of things, however. Staff ace Corbin Burnes was allowed to depart for Arizona, and his replacements in the rotation are a pair of aging veterans in Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano. While both are decorated pitchers who could offer strong mid-rotation production, the loss of Burnes puts a great deal of pressure on Zach Eflin and Grayson Rodriguez (the latter of whom is currently on the injured list) to perform in front-of-the-rotation roles. The possible return of Kyle Bradish later this season from UCL surgery should help things, but even that would come with question marks due to a year-long layoff. The bullpen is in better shape, fortunately, with closer Felix Bautista back from his own UCL surgery and Yennier Cano, Gregory Soto, and Seranthony Dominguez among the other late inning options. If the club’s rotation can hold up and avoid further injuries, the Orioles should have as good of a shot as anyone at the AL East crown this year.

Boston Red Sox (81-81)

The AL East club with by far the biggest offseason, the Red Sox made significant splashes this winter when they traded for (and, more recently, extended) ace southpaw Garrett Crochet before bringing in third baseman Alex Bregman on a three-year, opt-out laden deal. Both of those moves are likely to transform last year’s middling club into true contenders, giving Boston an ace-caliber arm ahead of homegrown mid-rotation pieces like Tanner Houck and Brayan Bello (not to mention offseason signing Walker Buehler) while allowing them to kick Rafael Devers’s lackluster glove off of third base and into a DH role. Those additions build on a solid group of talent already in place, with players like Devers, Triston Casas, and Jarren Duran standing as likely offensive contributors.

Perhaps even more important than this winter’s additions, however, is the impending arrival of the club’s top prospects. Kristian Campbell is already in the majors and emerging as a potential early favorite for the AL Rookie of the Year award, with fellow top prospects Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer also expected to make their big league debuts at some point this year. All three are consensus top-15 prospects in the sport, with Anthony in particular being rated as the sport’s #1 prospect by a number of services. That sort of high-end prospect talent all arriving in the majors simultaneously is quite rare, and affords the club an exceptionally deep positional mix with plenty of potential impact. With that being said, the club does have one potential Achilles’ heel in the bullpen. After relying on an elite tandem of Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin to close out games last year, the Red Sox are now banking on a strong return from nearly two years away from the mound for Liam Hendriks and a resurgence from Aroldis Chapman in the late innings. If the club’s strong offense and solid rotation can overcome that questionable bullpen, however, they should be in strong position to return to the top of the AL East.

Tampa Bay Rays (80-82)

After suffering their first losing season in recent memory and selling at the trade deadline last year, the Rays avoided their annual winter of sell-side trades (the Jeffrey Springs deal notwithstanding) and actually made a handful of modest but potentially impactful additions this winter. Arguably the club’s two biggest weaknesses last season were catcher and shortstop, so the additions of Danny Jansen and Ha-Seong Kim figure to go a long way to bring up the floor for the club as they try to get back on track. Jansen and Kim (when the latter returns from the IL) figure to be joined this year by the Rays’ usual suspects on offense with Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, and trendy breakout pick Junior Caminero set to serve as anchors of the lineup. Outside of those names, however, the Rays are likely to need big performances from less established pieces like Christopher Morel and Jonathan Aranda in order to make noise in a crowded AL East.

Fortunately, whatever questions the Rays face on offense are largely avoided on the pitching side of things. The temporary loss of ace Shane McClanahan to open the season hurts the rotation, but the club still features a bevy of solid arms that includes Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot, Taj Bradley, Zack Littell, and Shane Baz. Each of those arms have the upside of at least a #4 starter, and Rasmussen in particular has flashed the sort of production that could front a rotation over the years. In the bullpen, meanwhile, the club will once again rely on Pete Fairbanks in the ninth inning with a group of interesting arms including Edwin Uceta and Hunter Bigge also in their bullpen mix. If the club’s offense can get going, it’s not hard to imagine that pitching talent carrying the Rays back into the playoffs this year.

Toronto Blue Jays (74-88)

The Blue Jays failed in their offseason bid for Juan Soto, and similarly have seemingly come up short in their efforts to extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ahead of his final season of club control. That puts plenty of pressure on the Jays to return from the basement of the AL East and compete in what could be their superstar’s last season in town, and Toronto brass answered that pressure by bringing in some notable reinforcements this winter. Anthony Santander offers the sort of big bat to protect Guerrero in the lineup that the Jays lacked last year, Andres Gimenez should greatly improve the club’s defense, Jeff Hoffman looks like a strong replacement for Jordan Romano in the ninth inning, and Max Scherzer (when he returns from the IL) should offer quality innings to a rotation that lost Yusei Kikuchi last summer.

Even with solid additions like those, however, a lot needs to go right for the Jays if they’re going to get to the top of the AL East this year. Perhaps the most important would be a return to form for Bo Bichette, who endured the worst season of his career last year. A lineup featuring Bichette at his best alongside Guerrero and Santander would go a long way to making this club look like a playoff team, as would a resurgence from veteran righty Kevin Gausman, who took a step back from his previous ace-level seasons with the Blue Jays last year. A strong year on offense from franchise catcher Alejandro Kirk and a repeat of Bowden Francis’s excellent rookie campaign could also serve as X-factors that help the club stay competitive this year.

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With all five clubs making a legitimate effort to compete this year, who will come out on top? Will the Yankees reign supreme once again despite their losses, or will they be successfully challenged by the young, up-and-coming Orioles despite a middling rotation? Can the Red Sox ride their splashy signings and top prospects to the postseason, or will a team like the Rays or even the Blue Jays surprise? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Who Will Win The AL Central?

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Opening Day has finally arrived, and teams all around the league are gearing up for another pennant chase in hopes of being crowned this year’s World Series champion. Of course, there’s still another seven months to go before someone raises the Commissioner’s Trophy. Until the playoffs begin, teams will be focused on a smaller goal: winning their division. We’ll be conducting a series of polls to gauge who MLBTR readers believe is the favorite in each division. That series has already covered the National League, with the Dodgers, Cubs, and Phillies each coming out on top in their respective divisions. In the American League, meanwhile, the Rangers were voted as the most likely AL West winner. Next up is a look at the AL Central. Teams are listed in order of their 2024 record.

Cleveland Guardians (92-69)

The Guardians surprised the baseball world by not only storming back to the top of the AL Central in Stephen Vogt’s first year replacing Terry Francona as manager in Cleveland, but by pushing past the Astros to secure a playoff bye alongside the Yankees. Though the club ultimately fell to New York in the ALCS, their strong showing inspired plenty of optimism about the club’s future. The offseason saw some major changes come to the organization as Andres Gimenez departed the club in a series of moves that ultimately brought back righty Luis Ortiz. The addition of Ortiz should help bolster a rotation that was the club’s clear weakness last year, as should getting more out of Shane Bieber after he returned to the club in free agency over the offseason.

Aside from that stronger rotation mix and the aforementioned loss of Gimenez, the 2025 Guardians don’t look much different than the 2024 club. Josh Naylor departed via trade but was swiftly replaced with Carlos Santana in his third stint with the club, and the club swapped Tyler Freeman for Nolan Jones just before Opening Day. Meanwhile, Jakob Junis and Paul Sewald add depth to a bullpen that was already baseball’s best last season. A stronger rotation mix should help the Guardians stay at the top of the AL Central this year, though they’ll need strong performances from players like Jones, Brayan Rocchio, and Kyle Manzardo in order to match last year’s output in the lineup without Naylor’s bat and Gimenez’s glove in the fold.

Kansas City Royals (86-76)

After making it back to the playoffs for the first time since their World Series championship in 2015, the Royals stayed busy in the offseason. They retained their strong front three of Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, and Michael Wacha in the rotation while trading fourth starter Brady Singer to the Reds to land Jonathan India, who has split time between left field and third base for the club so far this year. Meanwhile, the Royals made a splash at the back of their bullpen by signing closer Carlos Estevez to handle the ninth inning, bolstering a relief group that was a big source of frustration last year. Overall, the pitching staff seems to be in an even better place than 2024 with Singer set to be replaced in the rotation by some combination of Kris Bubic, who excelled in a short stint with the bullpen last year, the eventual return of Kyle Wright from the injured list.

Less certain is how the club will stack up on offense. India was the club’s only major addition to the lineup, though swinging a trade for Mark Canha just before Opening Day should raise the floor offensively and bringing in Cavan Biggio could also improve the club’s depth. India and Canha should help to balance out a lineup that was far too reliant on Bobby Witt Jr. last year. Even so, the club will either need Witt to repeat his otherworldly production or significant steps forward from players like MJ Melendez and Maikel Franco if they’re going to be even an average offense in 2025, given that last year’s club managed a wRC+ of just 96. Will the club’s modest improvements be enough to take control of the Central?

Detroit Tigers (86-76)

As is a theme throughout the AL Central, the Tigers were relatively quiet this winter. The lineup is largely unchanged from last year, with second baseman Gleyber Torres and outfielder Manuel Margot standing as the club’s only additions of significance. The duo’s right-handed bats should help to balance out a Tigers lineup that leans heavily to the left, but the more significant additions to the Tigers this year are in the rotation. The return of Jack Flaherty after the club traded him to the Dodgers over the summer should give the club an impressive prospective playoff rotation, with Flaherty joining reigning AL Cy Young award winner Tarik Skubal, 2024 breakout righty Reese Olson, and perhaps top prospect Jackson Jobe to make what could rival the Royals for the division’s best rotation. Alex Cobb, meanwhile, should add some veteran depth to the rotation and has been extremely effective when healthy in recent years.

Impressive as the rotation mix might be, the Tigers’ lackluster offensive additions mean a lot will need to go right for the club in the lineup if they’re going to make it back to October. Strong, healthy seasons from Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter will be a must, and steps forward from youngsters like Colt Keith and the ever-streaky Spencer Torkelson would go a long way to getting the club back to the postseason. As for the club’s bullpen, little changed outside of the addition of right-hander Tommy Kahnle, so the club will once again need strong performances from pieces like Tyler Holton and Will Vest in 2025. Will all of that be enough to overcome the Royals and Guardians in 2025?

Minnesota Twins (82-80)

After a disappointing season where the club appeared poised to make the postseason before collapsing in dramatic fashion down the stretch, the Twins are more or less running back the same club they put forward in 2024. Carlos Santana, Max Kepler, and Caleb Thielbar all departed the club with reasonable facsimiles of their expected production entering the door in their place when the club signed Ty France, Harrison Bader, and Danny Coulombe. Aside from that trio of modest additions to replace outgoing free agents, the Twins did very little to augment the club this winter. That’s not to say another weak season should be expected, however. On paper, the Twins have long been the most talented club in the AL Central and that figures to once again be the case in 2025.

Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, and Byron Buxton all have star potential when healthy, though Lewis has already opened the season on the injured list. Brooks Lee (also on the IL) and Matt Wallner provide plenty of upside to the club’s lineup, and steady contributors like Willi Castro, Ryan Jeffers, and Jose Miranda should help make for a strong offensive nucleus. The rotation, meanwhile, has a solid front three in the form of Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober to go along with a handful of interesting back-end options like Simeon Woods Richardson and David Festa. Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax make for a frightening combo at the back of the bullpen, leaving the club without any clear holes. With that being said, health and consistency have always been difficult to come by in Minnesota despite a deep and talented group of players. Will they be able to put it all together in 2025?

Chicago White Sox (41-121)

After the worst season in MLB history, the White Sox did little to inspire optimism about the 2025 season. Arguably, the club is weaker on paper than it was last year after losing Erick Fedde at the trade deadline and Garrett Crochet over the offseason. Kyle Teel and Colson Montgomery should arrive sometime this year to pick up the slack, and a fully healthy and productive season from Luis Robert Jr. would go a long way to getting the White Sox away from that 120-loss threshold. Even with those potential upsides, however, it would be perhaps the most shocking turnaround in baseball history if this club managed to bring a division title back to the south side of Chicago in 2025.

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The offseason didn’t see any status-quo-altering changes in the AL Central. While the three postseason clubs from last year all made at least some modest additions, the story of the division is not all that dissimilar from 2025. After a 92-win season in 2025, the Guardians’ pitching additions seem likely to be enough to make them a potential favorite as long as Jose Ramirez and Steven Kwan continue to play up to lofty expectations, though the additions Detroit and Kansas City made can’t be ignored. The Twins lurk in the background, meanwhile, even after a quiet offseason thanks to their strong in-house group of talent. With four of the division’s five clubs likely to be in the mix for the AL Central crown once again, who do you think is most likely to come out on top? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Who Will Win The AL West?

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Opening Day has finally arrived, and teams all around the league are gearing up for another pennant chase in hopes of being crowned this year’s World Series champion. Of course, there’s still another seven months to go before someone raises the Commissioner’s Trophy. Until the playoffs begin, teams will be focused on a smaller goal: winning their division. We’ll be conducting a series of polls to gauge who MLBTR readers believe is the favorite in each division. That series has already covered the National League, with the Dodgers, Cubs, and Phillies each coming out on top in their respective divisions. Now, the series moved on to the American League with a look at the AL West. Teams are listed in order of their 2024 record.

Houston Astros (88-73)

The only club to make the playoffs from the AL West last year, the Astros enter the 2025 season on the heels of a postseason that snapped their nearly decade-long run of trips to the ALCS. After a winter where the team parted ways with longtime franchise stalwarts such as Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Justin Verlander, and Ryan Pressly, the team is looking very different than it has in previous years. There’s some clear signs of weakness, most notably the fact that the club’s outfield depth is thin enough that their starters in the outfield corners are two infielders: longtime second baseman Jose Altuve has moved to left, while top third base prospect Cam Smith is patrolling right field with just five games of experience outside of A-ball.

Flawed as the club’s roster may be, there’s still plenty to like about the Astros in 2025. Christian Walker is an upgrade at first base and Isaac Paredes is an All-Star caliber hitter who should benefit greatly from the Crawford Boxes as he steps into the third base job vacated by Bregman. Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown have a chance to form a strong front-of-the-rotation duo, while few teams boast a pair of arms better than Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu at the back of their bullpen. Whether that will be enough to maintain a stranglehold over the AL West in 2025 even after this winter’s departures remains to be seen, however.

Seattle Mariners (85-77)

2025 ended in soul-crushing fashion for Mariners fans as they missed the playoffs by just one game for the second consecutive season. The club’s offseason was similarly disappointing as well; despite rumors of trades that would’ve sent players like Triston Casas, Nico Hoerner, and Alec Bohm to the Pacific Northwest making their way through the rumor mill this winter, the club was content to simply re-sign Jorge Polanco and bring in veteran infielder Donovan Solano to augment a lineup that was in the bottom ten for runs scored last year.

Fortunately, there’s still some reason for optimism headed into 2025. The club’s elite rotation remains in place, and a quintet of Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller, and Luis Castillo should still give them an excellent chance to win on any given day, particularly with a strong bullpen that features fireballers like Andres Munoz and Matt Brash on the back end. A big year from Julio Rodriguez would go a long way to correcting last season’s offensive woes, but even if Rodriguez starts out slowly again in 2025 he’ll have support from a full season of deadline addition Randy Arozarena, who posted strong numbers down the stretch after being acquired from the Rays last summer. Will that be enough to get the club their first division title since 2001?

Texas Rangers (78-84)

When looking at clubs that finished below .500 in 2024, there’s arguably no team with more helium entering the 2025 campaign than the Rangers. The 2023 champs didn’t have the most explosive offseason, but nonetheless enter the season with an overhauled bullpen highlighted by Chris Martin and Robert Garcia as well as a pair of solid additions to the lineup in Joc Pederson and Jake Burger. The upside a healthy season from Jacob deGrom could offer the rotation is impossible to overstate, and the middle infield tandem of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien once again figures to be among the best in the sport.

If there’s a flaw in the club’s present construction, it’s a heavy reliance on youth. The club’s vaunted Vanderbilt duo of Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker are supremely talented and were always expected to be a big part of the team in 2025, but leaning on both youngsters as members of the Opening Day rotation is a tall ask given the pair’s inconsistency and inexperience at the major league level and highlights the lack of reliability in the club’s rotation outside of Nathan Eovaldi. In the lineup, meanwhile, Wyatt Langford appears to be as good as bet as any sophomore player can be to have a big year, but both he and Evan Carter struggled to stay healthy in 2024. Will those youngsters be able to carry the Rangers back to the playoffs?

Athletics (69-93)

West Sacramento’s temporary baseball team showed signs of life for the first time in a while during their final months in Oakland, even ending the season with a solid 32-32 record after the All-Star break. After departing Oakland, the club aggressively attempted to improve this winter. They signed right-hander Luis Severino and traded for southpaw Jeffrey Springs to bolster the rotation while adding Gio Urshela to the lineup and Jose Leclerc to the bullpen. That group of additions join a solid core featuring Lawrence Butler, Brent Rooker, Mason Miller, and Shea Langeliers.

As solid as that collection of talent is, however, the A’s will need a lot more to go right in order to compete this year. Steps forward from homegrown arms like JP Sears and Joey Estes would go a long way, as would former and current top prospects in the lineup like Tyler Soderstrom, Max Muncy, and Jacob Wilson breaking out and playing up to their ceilings. It’s certainly not impossible to imagine most of that happening. And if it did, the team surprising and making it back to the postseason for the first time since they tore down their core from the late 2010s should be on the table.

Los Angeles Angels (63-99)

Anaheim’s first year post-Shohei Ohtani could hardly have gone worse. Franchise face Mike Trout played just 29 games last year, and very few things went right for the club as they narrowly avoided a 100-loss season. That didn’t stop them from making an effort to improve this offseason, however. The club added Jorge Soler to the lineup for a stable source of power, with Yoan Moncada, Travis d’Arnaud, and Tim Anderson filling out the bench. Meanwhile, Yusei Kikuchi, Kyle Hendricks, and Kenley Jansen were added to the pitching staff to deepen the rotation and bring a proper closer into the bullpen.

Kikuchi, Soler, and Jansen are all solid pieces, but the club will need more than those ancillary additions to bounce back from a dreadful 2024 campaign. Trout putting together his first fully healthy season in half a decade would go a long way, and the club’s decision to shift him to right field could help in that goal. Outside of that, the club will need its young position players like Nolan Schanuel, Zach Neto, and Logan O’Hoppe to step up and put together big seasons if it has any hope of catching up to the top dogs in the AL West.

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Just two seasons after the top three AL West clubs finished within a game of each other in 2023, that same trio appear set to jockey for the top spot in the division once again. After years of being the prohibitive favorite on paper, the Astros look more vulnerable than ever. Will their offseason additions be enough to keep them on top, or will the Mariners’ impressive rotation or the Rangers’ infusion of young talent be enough to finally overtake Houston? Or, perhaps, you think the Athletics or Angels will surprise with their respective collections of offseason additions and talented youngsters. Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Who Will Win The NL East?

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Opening Day has finally arrived, and teams all around the league are gearing up for another pennant chase in hopes of being crowned this year’s World Series champion. Of course, there’s still another seven months to go before someone raises the Commissioner’s Trophy. Until the playoffs begin, teams will be focused on a smaller goal: winning their division. We’ll be conducting a series of polls to gauge who MLBTR readers believe is the favorite in each division. That series already covered the NL West, where the Dodgers were viewed as an overwhelming favorite, and the NL Central, where the Cubs narrowly beat out the reigning division champs in Milwaukee. Now, the series continues with a look at the NL East. Teams are listed in order of their 2024 record.

Philadelphia Phillies (95-67)

After the Phillies fell to their division-rival Mets during the NLDS, it appeared the club may consider making some considerable changes as they put Alec Bohm on the market and searched for outfield help rather than rely on internal options like Brandon Marsh and Josh Rojas. Ultimately, however, the club’s additions this winter were fairly modest. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski swung a trade for a big-name pitcher in need of a bounce-back in Jesus Luzardo. The signings of Jordan Romano and Max Kepler should help out as well but both are coming off down seasons due to injuries. With Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez departing, the bullpen is arguably weaker than last season.

The Phillies will mostly rely on the same core players they trotted out last year. Fortunately, that’s the same core that allowed them to sail into the postseason with a bye through the Wild Card series last year. Zack Wheeler remains one of the very best pitchers in the entire sport, and a rotation featuring Luzardo as the likely fifth starter behind Cristopher Sanchez, Aaron Nola, and Ranger Suarez when fully healthy is in the conversation for the sport’s best. In the lineup, meanwhile, Bryce Harper returns as one of the sport’s most talented hitters, and his supporting cast of battle-tested veterans like Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, and J.T. Realmuto all figure to contribute with the same consistency they’ve offered in previous years. It was more than enough to win the division last year, but will the same be true in 2025?

Atlanta Braves (89-73)

This past offseason was a relatively quiet one in Atlanta, as the club’s winter was defined more by the departures of franchise stalwarts like Max Fried, Charlie Morton, and Travis d’Arnaud than any major additions, even as Jurickson Profar profiles as a substantial upgrade over last year’s platoon of Jarred Kelenic and Adam Duvall in left field. Other relatively marginal additions like Alex Verdugo, Nick Allen, and Hector Neris should help out somewhat as well, but the main thing Atlanta has going for it in 2025 is hope for better health. The Braves’ core was ravaged by injuries last year, with Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider both missing virtually the entire season while Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Sean Murphy and Michael Harris II all also missed significant time.

While health is never guaranteed, the club is all but certain to get more out of its two superstars in Acuna and Strider this year, and is overall unlikely to run into the same rash of injuries on the positional side even as Murphy is already out for the start of the season due to a cracked rib. The team that led baseball in runs scored in 2023 has brought in even more talent on offense since then while also building an impressive bullpen anchored by Raisel Iglesias and Aaron Bummer. All of that is before even considering that the club will once again enjoy the services of reigning NL Cy Young award winner Chris Sale, as well as Reynaldo Lopez as he tries to follow up on a 1.99 ERA campaign in 2025. In some ways, 2024 looked like a floor for the Braves’ talented floor. Will a bounce back be enough to win a tough division in 2025?

New York Mets (89-73)

For as talented as the Phillies and Braves are, it was the Mets who made the deepest run into the 2024 postseason of the NL East, getting all the way to Game 6 of the NLCS before falling to the eventual World Series champion Dodgers. Steve Cohen and David Stearns weren’t content to rest on their laurels this winter and made the biggest splash of any team when they signed Juan Soto to a record-shattering $765MM deal that will land him in Queens for the next 15 years. None of the club’s other moves matched that level of flash, but the returns of Sean Manaea, Jesse Winker, and Pete Alonso as well as more modest additions like Clay Holmes and A.J. Minter leave the Mets looking like a stronger club overall than they were this time last year.

Impactful as pairing Soto with Francisco Lindor at the top of the lineup figures to be, however, that won’t necessarily make the club a clear division favorite with many of the issues that made the Mets such underdogs last season still lingering. A rotation that featured little certainty on paper entering Spring Training is already getting tested by a number of injuries, and the club will rely on Mark Vientos avoiding a sophomore slump in order to lengthen a lineup that looks softer at the bottom than its counterparts in Atlanta and Philadelphia. Still, a lineup featuring two MVP finalists, two other 30-homer sluggers, and Brandon Nimmo looks impressive on paper, and a late-inning mix of Edwin Diaz, Minter, and Jose Butto should be able to preserve late leads. Will that be enough to overtake their rivals?

Washington Nationals (71-91)

The Nationals showed some signs of development last year, but ultimately sold at the trade deadline and fell well short of playoff contention when all was said and done. Still, an emerging core of James Wood, MacKenzie Gore, Dylan Crews, and CJ Abrams inspired enough confidence for the Nationals to make some modest buy-side additions this winter. Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell should provide a notable upgrade over Joey Meneses and Joey Gallo at first base, while Paul DeJong and Amed Rosario offer the sort of depth on the infield that was sorely lacking last year.

With three juggernauts at the top of the division, the path to a division title in D.C. is a murky one. With that being said, every member of that aforementioned core is young, talented, and capable of breaking out before even considering the potential impact other young pieces like Brady House, Cade Cavalli, and Robert Hassell III could offer at some point in the year. The addition of Michael Soroka to a rotation that already featured solid youngsters like Gore and Jake Irvin should also offer plenty of upside. Steep as the climb to the summit of the NL East would be, it’s certainly not impossible to imagine the Nationals being the surprise of the NL this year.

Miami Marlins (62-100)

Things were bleak in Miami last year as they lost 100 games for the first time since 2019. And unfortunately for fans, there’s little reason for optimism about the potential for better days in 2025. The club made virtually no additions this winter, and moves to ship out solid pieces like Luzardo and Jake Burger figure to be far more notable than the additions of minor pieces like Matt Mervis and Cal Quantrill. The return of stalwart ace Sandy Alcantara from Tommy John surgery provides a nice story early in the year, and young phenom Eury Perez could return later this season as well. Even the club’s vaunted collection of arms seems unlikely to be enough to get them back to the playoffs given a lineup that will rely on players like Jesus Sanchez and Connor Norby to carry its run production this year, and it would likely take a miracle for them to actually come out on top in such a tough division.

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The Phillies, Braves, and Mets all have strong cases to be the NL East’s best team after making the postseason last year. Philadelphia stands as the reigning champion, while Atlanta featured the best team in all of baseball just two years ago. New York, meanwhile, made a deep run in the postseason just last year and added arguably the most talented pure hitter in baseball over the winter. Meanwhile, D.C. is continuing to quietly assemble a young core that could break out and compete in its own right. Even with Miami deep in the trenches of a rebuild, it figures to be a deeply competitive division in 2025. Who do you think will come out on top? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Who Will Win The NL Central?

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With Opening Day just over the horizon, teams all around the league are gearing up for another pennant chase in hopes of being crowned this year’s World Series champion. Of course, there’s still another seven months to go before someone raises the Commissioner’s Trophy. Until the playoffs begin, teams will be focused on a smaller goal: winning their division. We’ll be conducting a series of polls to gauge who MLBTR readers believe is the favorite in each division. That series already covered the NL West, where the Dodgers were viewed as an overwhelming favorite, and will now move on to the NL Central. Teams are listed in order of their 2024 record.

Milwaukee Brewers (93-69)

The perennially underrated Brewers won the NL Central for a second consecutive year last season, finishing ten games up on the second-place Cubs and Cardinals. Impressively, they did so after losing both star manager Craig Counsell and ace right-hander Corbin Burnes the previous offseason. They’ll need to work that same magic to stay on top of their division this year after a winter that once again saw them part ways with major pieces. This time, longtime shortstop Willy Adames departed for San Francisco in free agency while the club traded star closer Devin Williams to the Yankees in exchange for prospect Caleb Durbin and southpaw Nestor Cortes.

Even without those stars, the Brewers could make some noise in a relatively weak division. A strong outfield anchored by Christian Yelich and Jackson Chourio figures to impress once again in 2025, and William Contreras has blossomed into a true star behind the plate. Meanwhile, veteran ace Brandon Woodruff is expected back sometime early this year after missing 2024 due to shoulder surgery, joining existing rotation pieces like Freddy Peralta and Aaron Civale to form a strong group. The club’s first challenge of the year will be getting through the early weeks of the season with a patchwork rotation, as each of Woodruff, Tobias Myers, DL Hall, Aaron Ashby, and Robert Gasser figure to open the year on the injured list.

Chicago Cubs (83-79)

After a second consecutive 83-79 finish in 2024, the Cubs made some major changes over the offseason. The club said goodbye to its longest-tenured player as Kyle Hendricks departed for Anaheim, replacing him in the rotation with southpaw Matthew Boyd, and swapped out Cody Bellinger for Kyle Tucker, a clear offensive upgrade that cost them third baseman Isaac Paredes to pull off. A reconstructed bullpen featuring Ryan Pressly, Ryan Brasier, Caleb Thielbar, and Eli Morgan looks strong on paper than the relief corps that was expected to be anchored by Adbert Alzolay and Hector Neris last year, as well. Despite those on-paper improvements, the Cubs face plenty of questions entering 2025. Matt Shaw, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and even Miguel Amaya offer plenty of upside at third base, in center field, and behind the plate respectively but none are surefire offensive contributors.

There’s still plenty to like, however. Tucker, Seiya Suzuki, and Ian Happ provide an incredibly strong floor in the outfield, and the addition of Justin Turner offers protection against a sophomore slump for 2024 standout rookie Michael Busch at first base while Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson figure to offer their perennially excellent defense alongside league average offense up the middle. Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga offer a quality one-two punch at the front of the club’s rotation, as well. It’s not too difficult to see a path back to the playoffs for the Cubs this year despite the questions, and adding a true star like Tucker ahead of his walk year could be the boost they need to recapture the division in 2025.

St. Louis Cardinals (83-79)

2024 was a mixed bag for the Cardinals, as they managed to get back over .500 following a disastrous 2023 campaign but saw both Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt fail to live up to expectations as they fell short of the playoffs once again. The struggles of the last two years prompted the Cardinals front office to put a focus on developing young players and parting ways with veterans this winter, though no-trade clauses wielded by Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras, and Arenado prevented that goal from coming to fruition outside of the departures of veterans like Goldschmidt and Kyle Gibson via free agency.

That’s left the Cardinals with a roster that looks simultaneously similar and slightly downgraded from last year. Phil Maton was the club’s only big league free agent addition this winter, offering a veteran set-up option for closer Ryan Helsley after Andrew Kittredge departed in free agency. Outside of that, the club’s moves were largely internal. Contreras replaced Goldschmidt at first base to make room for a catching tandem of Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages, Matthew Liberatore is sliding into the club’s rotation from the bullpen, and the club appears committed to giving more regular opportunities to younger players like Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman, and Alec Burleson. St. Louis’s hopes of finding success in 2025 likely hinge on those young players making the most of their opportunities this year and taking big steps forward.

Cincinnati Reds (77-85)

2024 was a deeply disappointed season in Cincinnati, as a club that many expected to blossom instead fell apart in the face of injuries all over the roster. Strong performances from stars Elly De La Cruz and Hunter Greene aside, there were few positive takeaways from last season. Fortunately, the club made substantial changes ahead of the 2025 season. They got things started in October by hiring future Hall of Famer Terry Francona to manage the club, and since then they’ve added Gavin Lux, Taylor Rogers, Jose Trevino, and Brady Singer in free agency while bringing back Nick Martinez and signing Austin Hays.

It was a busy offseason that added a number of solid complimentary pieces, all of whom should help the Reds avoid a total collapse like they suffered last year. Even so, the club will need better health from its core players to contend. The return of Matt McLain should offer a big boost, while healthy seasons from TJ Friedl in center field, Jeimer Candelario at third base, and Nick Lodolo in the rotation could be game changing as well. The pieces appear to be in place for brighter days in 2025, but whether that will be enough to get the Reds back to the postseason for the first time in a 162-game season since 2013 remains to be seen.

Pittsburgh Pirates (76-86)

Pittsburgh hasn’t finished above fourth place in the NL Central since 2016, and even a full season from reigning NL Rookie of the Year Paul Skenes won’t be enough to pull the club back into postseason contention on its own. The Pirates had a relatively quiet offseason this winter as they brought Andrew Heaney into the rotation alongside the additions of Spencer Horwitz and Tommy Pham to the lineup but made few additions beyond that trio. Those additions join a solid enough nucleus that includes Skenes, Jared Jones, Mitch Keller, Oneil Cruz, and Bryan Reynolds, but a lineup light on impact and a bullpen still anchored by David Bednar even after a 5.77 ERA season last year raise questions about the club’s ability to compete before even considering the fact that Jones and Horwitz are both presently nursing injuries.

That’s not to say there’s no hope for the Pirates this year, however. Skenes is perhaps the best young pitcher in the entire sport, and even if Jones misses time Keller, Heaney, and Bailey Falter make for a solid rotation that should keep the club in most games. A big season from Horwitz once he returns from the IL along with steps forward for young players like Cruz, Endy Rodriguez, and Nick Gonzales could lift the lineup well above its projections even if the club continues to get little value from former 1-1 pick Henry Davis, and Bednar returning to the form he showed in his previous back-to-back All-Star campaigns would go along way as well.

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It was a fairly busy offseason in the NL Central, and while the division still appears weaker at the top than its rivals on the coasts it nonetheless stands out as the only one in the National League where all five clubs are making some attempt to contend in 2025. Will the Brewers be able to hold onto the division crown for a third consecutive season? Will an up-and-coming club like the Cubs or Reds take a big enough step forward to wrest control? Or, perhaps, the Cardinals or Pirates will get the steps forward from young pieces necessary to surprise? Have your say in the poll below:

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