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Poll: The Yankees’ Biggest Need At The Deadline

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It’s been a tough few weeks for the Yankees. On May 28, the club was riding high with a seven-game cushion in the AL East. At that point, it seemed as though their biggest concern this summer would be vying for a bye through the Wild Card series rather than holding off their division rivals. That’s not how things have played out. New York has gone just 7-15 over its past 22 games and now sits 3.5 games back of the Blue Jays in the AL East with just a one-game cushion in a highly competitive AL Wild Card race.

The good news for the Yankees is that we’re just a few short weeks from the trade deadline, and help should be available for the club. As GM Brian Cashman and the rest of the front office gear up for trade season, it’s fair to wonder what the club’s biggest need this summer is going to be, although they may have provided some clarity on that as recently as this morning.

The Yankees’ need at either second or third base has been plainly apparent since the offseason. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has played both positions this season and delivered when healthy this year, with an impressive 136 wRC+ in 59 games, but he missed a month with an oblique strain and has battled injuries throughout his young career.

Chisholm has played third base since returning from the injured list early last month, but skipper Aaron Boone revealed this morning that Chisholm is moving back to second base. Boone called third base a “fluid” position and noted that Oswald Peraza will get the first look there tonight. DJ LeMahieu, who’s being displaced at second base by the Chisholm move, has plenty of experience at third base but hasn’t played there this season. Boone said today that playing third is now physically challenging for LeMahieu and not a consideration going forward.

Peraza, meanwhile, has not answered questions about whether or not he’s capable of hitting in the majors. The 25-year-old has hit just .154/.225/.262 (37 wRC+) this year with a 28.2% strikeout rate and little power. While he’s a solid enough defender all around the infield, he’s shown very few signs of life on offense. Jeimer Candelario just signed a minor league deal, but he’s a reclamation project at this point.

The early season heroics of Aaron Judge helped to mask the lackluster offensive production the Yankees were receiving from the tandem of LeMahieu and Peraza, but the team has gotten below average production from both second (89 wRC+) and third base (93 wRC+) even with Chisholm chipping in at both positions. A bat like that of Eugenio Suárez could transform the Yankees lineup, but even less flashy additions like Willi Castro, Amed Rosario, and Ryan McMahon could be a major help. Not only would that sort of addition shore up an infield in desperate need of additional depth, but it could help jump start a lineup that’s been in a collective slump of late. Over the past month, the Yankees rank just 16th in runs scored. They’ve scored one run or fewer runs seven times in that span. That type of offensive production is hard for even a dominant pitching staff to turn into wins.

Of course, the pitching staff has been far from dominant of late. Yankees starters have generally impressed on the season, with an 3.72 ERA and 3.79 FIP, but since the calendar flipped to June that’s ticked up to a 3.94 ERA and 4.15 FIP. They’re just 15th in the majors in rotation FIP since the start of June, and that’s including strong work from Clarke Schmidt, whose season appears finished as he awaits a likely Tommy John surgery. Schmidt joins Gerrit Cole on the shelf for the remainder of the year. The Yankees’ rotation now includes Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman and rookie Will Warren. Prospect Cam Schlittler is being called up to make his MLB debut and start tomorrow’s game.

Luis Gil is expected back at some point down the stretch, but a team relying on rookies like Schlittler and Warren (who has a 5.02 ERA in 18 starts this year) could benefit from another playoff-caliber starting pitcher. Given their long-term strength in the rotation, it would be understandable if the Yankees weren’t interested in paying for a controllable arm like Sandy Alcantara or Mitch Keller. Even so, swinging a deal for a solid veteran rental like Merrill Kelly or Seth Lugo would go a long way to improving the look of the team’s rotation headed into the stretch run.

The Yankees’ bullpen has also had some troubles throughout the season. Early in the year, newly-acquired closer Devin Williams was lit up badly enough that his ERA crept up over 11.00 and he was removed from the ninth inning. He’s eventually gotten to the point where he’s looking right for the most part again, with a 2.31 ERA and 1.54 FIP since the start of June. Even so, the step forward from Williams has been balanced out in recent weeks by injuries to key arms like Mark Leiter Jr., Jake Cousins and Fernando Cruz. Meanwhile, late-inning arms like Luke Weaver and Jonathan Loaisiga have struggled considerably returning from IL stints of their own. Adding some sort of depth to a bullpen that’s shown cracks all throughout the season would make some sense.

Judge, Fried, and more recently Williams have provided the sort of superstar production that can help paper over issues and keep the team afloat, but the depth behind those stars is clearly lacking. Which of the Yankees’ needs to MLBTR readers think is most important to address? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Should The Marlins Still Trade Sandy Alcantara This Summer?

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When we first polled MLBTR readers on the possibility of the Marlins trading Sandy Alcantara back in April, more than 87% of respondents said that Miami should try to trade Alcantara this year, before the trade deadline. There was certainly logic to that idea. After all, the Marlins were in a season where they had no hope of competing and Alcantara was widely expected to be the most sought-after player on the trade market. At the time, he had made three starts with a 4.70 ERA that appeared elevated, but he also had solid peripherals that suggested he was likely to be a surefire playoff starter for any team in need of rotation help.

Things have changed since then. Alcantara now sports a 7.01 ERA on the season as he’s struggled badly in his return from Tommy John surgery. His stretch of eight starts immediately following that poll saw him pitch to a shocking 10.09 ERA with a 16.1% strikeout rate, a 12.1% walk rate, and a FIP of 6.00. That stretch of brutal performances has evened out a bit since the calendar flipped to June, but even in six starts since then he’s posted a 4.89 ERA. That’s hardly an enticing figure for a team in need of a pitcher capable of fronting a playoff rotation, to say nothing of how concerning the season-long numbers are at this point.

Given Alcantara’s weak numbers, it’s easy to make the argument against parting ways with him at this point. His value is arguably at an all-time low, and the emergence of Edward Cabrera (3.33 ERA in 15 starts) this year means he isn’t even the Marlins’ best trade chip for the summer. Despite all of his struggles this year, Alcantara is still a former Cy Young award winner who is more than capable of turning things around. In fact, he’s already begun to show signs of improvement. While his last six starts have yielded that aforementioned unsightly 4.89 ERA, during that time his strikeout rate (18.2%) is trending in the right direction and his walk rate (4.1%) is actually better than ever. It’s not at all hard to imagine a strong second half putting the Marlins in position to get more for Alcantara this winter even in spite of the fact that he would be available for one less pennant race if traded after the season.

On the other hand, the possibility that Alcantara does not turn things around must be considered. It’s easy to forget in the glow of his dominant Cy Young season in 2022, but the right-hander’s 2023 was actually rather pedestrian as he posted a 4.14 ERA with a 4.03 FIP. That’s certainly a useful pitcher, but hardly the sort of ace a World Series contender would feel confident starting Game 1 of a playoff series with. The farther Alcantara’s peak in 2022 fades from memory, the lower his value will go and the harder it will be to convince interested teams that they’re buying low on an ace-caliber arm, unless he’s able to recapture that form.

Additionally, the market conditions this summer are very seller-friendly. There are only a handful of clubs certain to sell, and even fewer who both have and are willing to part with quality, controllable pieces. That gives the Marlins a great deal of power on the trade market, as they hold two of the best controllable arms who are expected to be available in Cabrera and Alcantara. With so many contenders in need of starting pitching and limited options available, it’s at least conceivable that a desperate team would be willing to take the risk of paying something close to full value for Alcantara’s services despite his brutal performance this year. The risk in waiting to deal a talented player whose production has taken a nosedive can be seen with the White Sox, who have frequently declined to trade Luis Robert Jr. in recent years amid hopes that he would put up a healthy, dominant season to raise his value. That hasn’t happened and now the Sox might not be able to get anything of note in return.

How should the Marlins handle the Alcantara question this summer? Should they trade him for what they can get this summer, or hold him to see if he can bounce back? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Will The Royals Trade Seth Lugo?

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The Royals’ 2025 season has not gone as they surely hoped it would after they surprised the baseball world with a playoff berth in 2024 and invested heavily into the team over the offseason. While they entered June over .500, a brutal 8-18 swoon last month left the team very abruptly buried in the AL playoff picture. Their 40-47 record leaves them with a 14-game deficit in the AL Central that already seems all but impossible to overcome, and even their Wild Card positioning leaves them 5.5 games back of a playoff spot. A rotator cuff strain sidelined Cole Ragans last month, and the loss of the club’s lefty ace will make it even harder for them to turn things around.

All of that has left the Royals looking like a potential deadline seller. A closer look at the club’s roster reveals very few short-term assets who would bring back a significant haul on the trade market, however. Hunter Harvey is injured, while Cavan Biggio and Mark Canha have both been well below average hitters this year. That leaves right-hander Seth Lugo as the only player on the roster who can depart for free agency this winter who could bring back a notable return for the Royals.

There’s few contenders who wouldn’t benefit from adding Lugo to their rotation. The right-hander was the runner-up for the AL Cy Young award last year with a dominant season, and he’s kept the good times rolling in 2025 with a sparkling 2.74 ERA in 15 starts. That’s the sort of front-of-the-rotation, surefire playoff starter that contenders dream of adding to their rotation mix, at least on paper. If Lugo could bring back an exciting return for the Royals, particularly an MLB-ready return, then it could make sense to sell the righty in order to maximize the 2026-30 seasons, after which point superstar Bobby Witt Jr. will have his first opportunity to opt-out of his extension and test free agency.

As clearcut as the argument for dealing Lugo may sound, however, there are real reasons to think the Royals may hesitate. For one thing, a monster return for Lugo is hardly guaranteed. As strong as his raw run prevention numbers have been this year, his peripherals tell a different story. The veteran’s strikeout rate has ticked slightly downward, his walk rate has jumped up to 8.0% after sitting at 5.6% last year, and his otherworldly ability to keep the ball in the park last year appears to have been a single-season mirage. With a 4.18 FIP and 4.10 SIERA, it’s possible rival clubs will value Lugo as more of a mid-rotation starter than a recent Cy Young candidate.

His value is further decreased by the $15MM player option he holds for the 2026 season. That’s a figure Lugo would certainly be able to beat in free agency if healthy, meaning that he’s very likely to opt out unless he suffers an injury, at which point the acquiring club would be on the hook for the full price and likely get minimal production. Similar contractual situations have caused issues in trade talks in the past. Both the Cubs and Yankees have entertained trade offers on Marcus Stroman in recent years but found difficulties getting much of a market for his services due to “poison pill” contract options, and even future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer had to waive his ability to opt out of the 2024 campaign for the Rangers to be willing to acquire him from the Mets during the summer of 2023. It’s not at all difficult to believe interested teams could have similar reservations regarding Lugo.

If the return for Lugo isn’t robust, it’s not hard to imagine the Royals just keeping the veteran. While Witt is young and under long-term control, other pieces of the club’s core like Michael Wacha, Carlos Estevez, and Salvador Perez aren’t exactly getting any younger. Even younger players like Jonathan India and Kris Bubic aren’t far from the end of their team control windows, and that could leave the Royals motivated to try to make the 2026 season count. Keeping Lugo in the fold would help that goal, and while it’s typically unlikely for a small market club to keep a star player in free agency, that may not be the case in this instance.

With Lugo eligible for the Qualifying Offer this winter, it’s not impossible to imagine him either sticking around on that one-year pact if it’s offered to him or the sides using it as a jumping off point to work out an extension. The Royals typically wouldn’t be expected to have the sort of financial muscle needed to retain a pitcher of Lugo’s caliber, but the veteran turns 36 this November and would likely be limited to short-term offers in free agency even if he isn’t attached to the Qualifying Offer. Should Kansas City extend him the QO, it could further depress his ability to land a big contract. If the Royals like their odds of keeping Lugo around after this year, it would be understandable if they decided not to trade him.

How do MLBTR readers think the Royals will ultimately handle Lugo? Will he be traded this summer, or will they hold onto him and hope to keep him around longer term? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Should The Cubs Trade For A Bat This Summer?

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The Cubs are one of the better teams in the National League this year. Their 50-35 record leaves them tied with the Phillies for the second seed in the NL, and they’ve led their division since April 4 without interruption. Much of that can be attributed to an excellent offense headlined by the offseason addition of Kyle Tucker and the breakout of Pete Crow-Armstrong. With that being said, they lost some steam in the month of June after posting a 13-13 record and watching their lead in the NL Central shrink to just two games.

Between their strong start to the season and their fading lead in the division, Chicago figures to be one of the more aggressive buyers in the game this summer. Most of the focus has been on starting pitching, and for good reason. Shota Imanaga remains a steady front-of-the-rotation arm and Matthew Boyd has been a revelation this year with a 2.65 ERA in 17 starts, but the loss of Justin Steele at the top of the Cubs’ rotation has been felt deeply. Jameson Taillon (85 ERA+), Colin Rea (87 ERA+), and Cade Horton (79 ERA+) have all pitched to middling results even by the standards of a back-of-the-rotation arm, while Ben Brown’s ERA ballooned to 6.13 before he was optioned to Triple-A upon Imanaga’s return from a hamstring strain last week.

Considering that Boyd’s 98 2/3 innings of work is already his highest total since 2019, adding a rotation arm or two is a slam-dunk for this team. That obvious need could be overshadowing another major hole for the Cubs, however. It’s somewhat bold to suggest the team that leads all of baseball in position player fWAR (18.9) and has the third most potent offense in baseball (116 wRC+) could be a bat short, but Chicago has gotten -0.3 fWAR from the third base position this year. That’s the worst figure in baseball, and the team’s 62 wRC+ at the hot corner is ahead of only the Reds and Marlins. Patrick Mooney of The Athletic made a strong case for the Cubs to add another hitter to the lineup earlier this week, and third base is the natural position for Chicago to upgrade.

2023 first-rounder Matt Shaw is currently holding down the for at the position. Grades on Shaw’s defense are mixed, as he has -1 Outs Above Average but +5 Defensive Runs Saved. That latter figure trails only Ke’Bryan Hayes, Ernie Clement, and Caleb Durbin this year. Even if the more optimistic view of Shaw’s defense is taken, however, his offense has been lackluster with a .221/.305/.315 (80 wRC+) in 203 plate appearances this year. He was optioned to the minors for about a month earlier this season, but even since returning his 89 wRC+ is well-below league average. The club’s internal options behind Shaw are uninspiring at best. Vidal Brujan has a wRC+ of 9 this year in a bench role with the team, meaning he’s been 91 below league average offensively. Jon Berti’s wRC+ of 42 is only marginally better. While Justin Turner has improved after an ice cold start to the year, he still carries a wRC+ of just 62 on the season and is overmatched defensively at third base in his age-40 season.

There should be clear upgrades available this summer, if the Cubs are inclined to pursue them. Eugenio Suarez of the Diamondbacks looks like the best bat potentially available at any position, and he’s already clubbed 26 homers as the everyday third baseman in Arizona. Willi Castro is enjoying what could be a career year on the Twins (122 wRC+) and can play all over the diamond, including third base. Even a bench or platoon option could be a substantial improvement given the production of Chicago’s reserves. Ryan McMahon and Hayes have both gotten some trade buzz this summer, but both players are below-average hitters on underwater contracts. More palatable choices who could theoretically be available include Amed Rosario of the Nationals, Ramon Urias of the Orioles, and Abraham Toro of the Red Sox.

It’s hard to argue with the notion that the Cubs could make themselves a better team by adding a third baseman, or at least another infielder who can help carry the load at third base. With that being said, resources are finite. The Cubs’ once-vaunted farm system has taken hits due to the graduations of players like Crow-Armstrong, Shaw, and Horton, trades for Tucker and Michael Busch, and tough seasons for some top prospects like James Triantos. They still have a fairly robust group of near big league ready talent to trade from, but it could be hard to part with Owen Caissie as long as the possibility of Tucker leaving in free agency this winter remains on the table.

Trading for help on offense would necessarily require using capital that otherwise could have been spent to add another starter. Perhaps targeting a less expensive bench contributor could be a way to add infield help without compromising the club’s ability to go after a big name rotation add or two like Sandy Alcantara, Merrill Kelly, or Mitch Keller, but it could be hard for the Cubs to justify spending resources on another bat to further bolster an offense that has averaged more than five runs per game this season.

How do MLBTR readers view Chicago’s third base situation? Should the Cubs be aggressive in trying to add a starting third baseman to supplant Shaw down the stretch? Should they stick with their current offense and focus entirely on adding pitching? Or perhaps they should try to bolster their depth with a low-cost bench addition? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: What Will The Twins Do At The Deadline?

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The Twins ended the 2024 season with a bitterly disappointing slump in September that pushed them out of the playoff picture at the very end of the year. Budget constraints forced them to follow that up with a generally very quiet offseason, however, and they entered 2025 with mostly the same team as last year aside from a few small additions like Danny Coulombe and Harrison Bader. Given that lackluster offseason, perhaps it’s not a shock that the Twins are currently 40-44, four games out of the final AL Wild Card spot and 12.5 games back of the Tigers in the AL Central.

Minnesota would have to leapfrog five clubs in the standings just to secure a Wild Card berth. On the other hand, they have a 25.6% chance at making it to the postseason, according to Fangraphs, with a roster that looks quite intimidating on paper. Injuries to Pablo Lopez and Zebby Matthews are certainly frustrating, but even without those pieces, the Twins have a solid-looking roster. The offense is centered around a pair of stars in Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa who are complemented by the likes of Willi Castro, Bader, and Ryan Jeffers. The rotation features a legitimate front-of-the-rotation arm in Joe Ryan, and the bullpen is anchored by an excellent dynamic duo of Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax.

Unfortunately, the cracks in the roster quickly begin to show up when you look at the roster’s performance this year. While Buxton has been as much of a star as advertised, Correa has been a below-average hitter this year with a 93 wRC+ after a brutal start to the season. He’s hit more like himself in recent weeks, but continues to show a concerning lack of power. Matt Wallner was unable to sustain a hot start, Brooks Lee hasn’t been the hitter Minnesota was hoping for, and a handful of expected contributors are languishing in Triple-A due to poor performance. The rotation has nothing concrete behind Ryan, with even Bailey Ober posting an ERA north of 5.00 on the year. And despite possessing the second-best bullpen in baseball by FIP, the unit’s 4.32 ERA is well below average.

That leaves the Twins as one of the many teams stuck between buying and selling as July kicks off. It’s not too difficult to imagine a return to form from Correa and better results from a bullpen with excellent underlying numbers being enough to pull Minnesota back above .500, or at least stop them from falling out of the race completely until Lopez and Matthews eventually return. All of that reason is sound enough, and it’s surely played into comments from president of baseball operations Derek Falvey last week that indicated selling is not something the team is “focusing on” at this point.

For a team that could be just a starting pitcher or two away from a second-half surge, buying and hoping to get into the dance understandably holds some appeal. Correa and Buxton aren’t getting any younger, after all, and key pieces like Lopez, Duran, and Ryan are all slated to reach free agency following the 2027 season. With only three pennant races to go until the Twins will need to make some major changes, a sell-off this summer could leave the team with little reason for optimism headed into the final years of their stars’ prime seasons.

On the other hand, the Twins already suffered one painful collapse last year and have limited resources due to financial constraints placed by ownership. A sale of the team could be in the works, and it could be argued that, between the number of potential contenders jockeying for a seat at the table in the AL and the very limited supply of clear sellers this summer, the Twins would be better off selling some of their pieces and regrouping for the future, when they figure to have more certainty on an ownership level.

Young pieces like Lee, Wallner, Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa, all have years to go before free agency. The arrivals of players like Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins should help the lineup make up for the eventual declines of Correa and Buxton. It’s certainly possible to make an argument that the Twins are set up relatively well for the future, and a few savvy sell-side moves could keep their theoretical window of contention open for much longer. Adding another top prospect or two to the mix alongside Jenkins and Rodriguez could keep the team relevant for years to come.

Of course, another possibility would be to split the difference and do a bit of both. Perhaps rental players like Castro and Coulombe are dangled and replaced internally, while the team uses some of its controllable depth to acquire a starter or two. That sort of balanced approach could make plenty of sense, as could the approach teams like the Cubs and Pirates took to the deadline last year where they added controllable, longer-term assets like Isaac Paredes and Isiah Kiner-Falefa to simultaneously improve the current club while also building for the future.

How do MLBTR readers think the Twins should approach this deadline? Should they trust the team they’ve constructed to make up for last year’s collapse and add? Should they take advantage of a potential seller’s market and see what they can get for some of their best pieces? Or should they take the middle road and do a bit of both? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Should The Pirates Trade Mitch Keller?

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The second year of the Paul Skenes era in Pittsburgh is not going well. The Pirates are currently 35-50, leaving them buried in both the NL Central and the Wild Card race. The Bucs stand as one of the few clear sellers this summer, and it seems as though the team is operating with very few untouchables. One of the names that’s gotten the a good bit of buzz this summer is right-hander Mitch Keller, who has drawn attention as one of the few established, controllable starting pitchers with a chance to be dealt.

The Cubs have come up as a potential suitor for Keller, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported yesterday that the sides have been discussing a deal for more than a week. That’s not necessarily an indication that a trade, whether with the Cubs or otherwise, is particularly close. Still, it lends credence to the idea that the Pirates are serious in their willingness to consider moving the right-hander. That’s at least a mild surprise, given that he’s in just the second season of a five-year contract, but there’s a case to be made that the Pirates should capitalize right now.

After all, Keller is making $54.5MM over the final three years of his contract. That’s a below-market sum for a solid mid-rotation veteran but still steep for the perennially low-budget Pirates. Pittsburgh has already assembled an impressive group of young pitching talent with Skenes, top prospect Bubba Chandler, and injured-but-talented righty Jared Jones leading the pack. With affordable arms like Mike Burrows, Braxton Ashcraft and Thomas Harrington already having debuted, and well-regarded prospect Hunter Barco not far behind, the Pirates are amassing some enviable pitching depth. (That doesn’t include left-hander Bailey Falter, who’s affordably controlled for three more seasons.)

Pittsburgh would arguably be better off spending Keller’s salary on some sorely needed offense. Teoscar Hernandez, for example, signed with the Dodgers for a similar amount: $66MM over three years, with enough money deferred to lower the net present value of the contract to just under $60MM. Gleyber Torres, Tyler O’Neill, Christian Walker, and Pete Alonso are among the other hitters who signed for $60MM or less guaranteed this past winter. Not all of those deals have worked out, and there are always dangers of spending on even mid-range free agents like this, but the Pirates could have made reasonably competitive bids for some notable veterans on the open market with a sum comparable to what they still owe Keller.

Aside from the ability to reallocate financial resources, moving Keller would surely come with a solid return. Cost-controlled starting pitching is typically the most valuable commodity on the trade market, and while Keller is hardly elite given his 109 ERA+ this year, his affordable contract and year-to-year stability would give the acquiring club additional long-term certainty in their rotation that a rental pitcher like Zac Gallen could offer.

Using the Cubs’ system as an example due to their status as a rumored suitor for Keller, it’s easy to see why the Pirates might be willing to deal within the division. Chicago has a number of quality position player prospects knocking on the door of the big leagues. Outfielder Owen Caissie has 12 home runs and a 125 wRC+ at Triple-A Iowa as a 22-year-old this year. Catcher/DH Moises Ballesteros, outfielder Kevin Alcantara, and infielder James Triantos are all close to MLB-ready as well. Triantos’ stock is down after a difficult and injury-marred start to the 2025 season, but a package centering around one of those other young hitters could be appealing for a Pirates club that is looking to players like Andrew McCutchen and Spencer Horwitz to fill out the middle of its order at present. Other clubs with upper-level position player prospects have undoubtedly inquired on Keller, too.

As appealing as some of the arguments for trading Keller may be, there are real concerns that would come with making a deal. Keller was once looked at as a potential No. 2 starter during his prospect days and, while he hasn’t lived up to that potential yet, he’s not far removed from a three-WAR season wherein he struck out 25.5% of his opponents. His 4.21 ERA that year was pedestrian, but his 3.83 SIERA was 18th-best in baseball among qualified starters, just behind Logan Gilbert and ahead of players like Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, and Dylan Cease. Keller is still just 29 years old, and he certainly wouldn’t be the first pitcher to take a step forward in the middle of his prime. If the Pirates believe Keller still has another gear, they might prefer to hold onto him in hopes that he can unlock it and increase his trade value or his value to the Pirates themselves.

Aside from the possibility of selling at less than peak value, it’s worth noting how much uncertainty there is when it comes to developing pitching. The Tigers drafted Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize back in 2018 but only began to truly see the fruits of that labor last year after both players were derailed by injuries early in their career. Jones is already recovering from elbow surgery, and with pitching injuries seemingly more frequent than ever, it can be hard to part with a steady arm like Keller. Given the soaring price of pitching in free agency, the Pirates would likely have to keep scoring deals on low-cost veterans like they did with Andrew Heaney this year in order to fill out and create depth behind their young rotation mix.

How do MLBTR readers think the Pirates should act regarding Keller? Should they move to trade him in order to help boost the offense for their young arms, or should they hang onto him as a veteran presence and hope he can increase his value from here? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: NL Cy Young Check-In

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While days off and postponements leave clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. Earlier this week, we checked in on the MVP race in both the American League and the National League as players around the game gear up for the second half. Those races are dominated by position players, so today we’ll turn our attention more firmly towards the pitchers. Who are the frontrunners for the Cy Young Award in both leagues? Yesterday’s poll covered the AL, where 45.5% of voters expect southpaw Tarik Skubal to repeat as the Cy Young Award winner. Today, our focus is on the NL. A look at some of the top candidates:

Paul Skenes

After a dominant debut season where he won the NL Rookie of the Year award and finished third in Cy Young voting, it shouldn’t register as much of a surprise that Skenes is one of the favorites for the award in his sophomore season as a big leaguer. The right-hander has an NL-best 2.12 ERA in 106 innings of work through 17 starts with strong peripherals to match. He’s striking out 26.9% of his opponents, walking 7.1%, and is doing extremely well in terms of contact management with a 48.9% ground ball rate and a barrel rate of just 4.9%. It’s a strong collection of numbers for any player, much less a 23-year-old in just his second MLB season.

Even so, Skenes is hardly a slam dunk for the award. His strikeout rate, walk rate, and ground ball rate are all actually worse than they were in his rookie campaign. His 3.28 SIERA is just eighth in the NL, suggesting that there are other contenders for the award who are better set up to excel in the second half of the season than he is. Aside from that, some more traditional voters could look at Skenes’s 4-7 record on a Pirates team that could flirt with a 100-loss campaign this year and hold it against the young star relative to other hurlers in the race who pitch for contenders.

Logan Webb

When looking at the game’s aces, it can be argued that none is more underappreciated than right-hander Logan Webb. He’s doing what he can to change that perception of him with a phenomenal season in his age-28 campaign, however. Webb’s 2.52 ERA lags behind that of Skenes, but he makes up for it in virtually every other category. His 107 1/3 innings of work across 17 starts leads the NL, and his 2.24 FIP is also good for the best in the senior circuit. While his 53.3% ground ball rate would be the lowest he’s posted in a full season if maintained through the end of the year, it’s still a well above average figure.

He’s made up for that decline in grounders by striking out more batters than ever before with a 27.7% clip that surpasses even Skenes, and he’s done it while maintaining a tidy 5.3% walk rate. There are very few red flags in Webb’s profile this year, and perhaps the biggest question is if a player who entered the year with a career 22.0% strikeout rate who has made only token improvements to his low-90s fastball in terms of velocity this year can sustain such a large spike in strikeouts. After finishing as the runner-up for the Cy Young Award in 2023 and sixth last season, could 2025 be Webb’s year to shine?

Zack Wheeler

No list of potential Cy Young candidates in the NL has been complete without Wheeler since he arrived in Philadelphia, and this year is no exception. The 35-year-old may have recently indicated that he’ll retire following the expiration of his current contract in 2027, but he’s shown no signs whatsoever of slowing down on the mound. Across 99 innings of work and 16 starts this year, Wheeler’s numbers look like they have a chance to be better than they’ve ever been come the end of the year.

His 2.55 ERA would be the best of his career by a slim margin after he posted a 2.57 figure last season, and his eye-popping 32.9% strikeout rate is not only nearly eight points better than his career mark, but the highest in all of baseball among qualified starters this year. His 2.70 SIERA is also the best in the NL, edging out Webb by just eight points, and he has a strong chance to eclipse 200 innings pitched for the third time in his career. Wheeler has finished second for the Cy Young twice before, in both 2021 and 2024. This year could be his best opportunity to secure the award before his planned retirement two seasons from now.

MacKenzie Gore

Easily the most surprising entrant into the list of top candidates for the Cy Young, Gore was once the sport’s consensus top pitching prospect but entered the 2025 season with a fairly pedestrian 4.20 ERA across parts of three seasons in the majors. He’s broken out in a big way as the Nationals’ ace this year, however, with a 3.09 ERA and 2.91 FIP in 99 innings of work across 17 starts. His 31.8% strikeout rate is second only to Wheeler in the NL, and that overpowering stuff is enough to leave him with a strong 2.99 SIERA that largely supports his performance to this point in the season.

Impressive as he’s been, however, the 26-year-old also has much clearer flaws than the other contenders on this list. Like Skenes, Gore’s 3-8 record on a club with little hope of contending in 2025 could be a hard sell for the sport’s most traditional voters. There are also fair questions about how certain Gore is to keep up his performance in the second half. He’s mostly a fly ball pitcher, and that profile along with his 9.0% barrel rate allowed leave him susceptible to the long ball. His 7.4% walk rate is the highest among the top contenders for the Cy Young this year, as well. Perhaps most concerning of all is his performance down the stretch in 2024. After carrying a 3.47 ERA and 3.00 FIP through July 1 last year, Gore wore down in the second half and posted a 4.40 ERA with a 4.17 FIP across his final 15 starts. Will he be able to sustain his performance this year?

Other Options

While the four hurlers mentioned above are the top candidates, they certainly aren’t the only arms worthy of consideration. Chris Sale is the reigning Cy Young winner in the NL and would be firmly in contention for the award once again if not for a recent rib cage injury that figures to sideline him indefinitely. Jesus Luzardo has elite peripheral numbers but recently surrendered 20 runs in 5 2/3 innings across two appearances that could knock him out of contention for the award by themselves. Cristopher Sanchez and former Cy Young award winner Robbie Ray are both in the midst of excellent seasons, but are overshadowed within their own rotations by Wheeler and Webb respectively. Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 2.61 ERA is very impressive, but his less-than-elite peripherals and lack of volume leave him a step behind the other contenders.

Sale’s injury sets this race apart from the AL Cy Young and both of the MVP races by significantly diminishing the chances of a repeat. With what appears to be a fairly wide-open field, who do MLBTR readers expect to come out on top? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: AL Cy Young Race Check-In

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While days off and postponements leave clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. Earlier this week, we checked in on the MVP race in both the American League and the National League as players around the game gear up for the second half. Those races are dominated by position players, so today we’ll turn our attention more firmly towards the league’s pitchers. Who are the frontrunners for the Cy Young Award in both leagues? We’ll be taking a look at some of the top candidates this week, starting with the American League today:

Tarik Skubal

The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner tops the list of contenders again this year. Somehow, Skubal has been even more dominant than he was last year. Through 16 starts and 102 innings, he has improved his ERA (2.29), FIP (2.11), strikeout rate (32.1%), walk rate (3.3%), SIERA (2.46), and xERA (2.61) relative to his full season numbers last year. He’s even pitching slightly deeper into games so far this year, averaging 6.37 innings per start as compared to last year’s 6.19.

For a hurler who won the pitching Triple Crown in the AL last year to improve upon that performance the very next year is remarkable, and Skubal figures to remain the favorite to win the award for a second consecutive season if he can maintain this level of production going forward. There’s plenty of competition in the AL, however, so even a minor slip up down the stretch could give the edge to another candidate.

Garrett Crochet

Crochet has been nearly as dominant as Skubal in many respects. After breaking out with the White Sox last year and getting traded to the Red Sox over the offseason, he’s turned in a 2.06 ERA and 2.53 FIP across 17 starts. Crochet leads the majors with 109 1/3 innings pitched, and while his 31.3% strikeout rate is just behind that of Skubal, he’s still struck out more batters (135) than any pitcher in baseball this year. While Crochet and Skubal appear to be more or less equals on paper, with Crochet having a lower ERA and an extra start under his belt while Skubal has stronger peripheral numbers, there are some other factors working against Boston’s ace.

Crochet is more or less untested in the second half after throwing just 40 2/3 innings after July 6 last year. After that date, the lefty never recorded an out in the fifth inning or later and topped out at just 77 pitches in an outing. Even with that less strenuous workload, his numbers suffered as he posted a 4.87 ERA down the stretch. Chicago’s decision to handle Crochet gently down the stretch last year was an understandable one given his injury history, but it creates some uncertainty about how he’ll handle the first true full-season starter’s workload of his career. Additionally, Crochet has a 7-4 record on a team that might wind up selling at the trade deadline this year. While the Cy Young is an individual award, some voters consider a pitcher’s record and their team’s success, which could benefit other candidates with more dominant records on clear playoff teams.

Max Fried

Signed to the largest deal for a left-handed pitcher in MLB history this past offseason, Fried has stepped up as the Yankees’ new ace while Gerrit Cole rehabs from Tommy John surgery. Fried has a sterling 1.92 ERA in 17 starts (108 innings), though he’s done so without the gaudy strikeout numbers of other top Cy Young contenders. His 24.5% strikeout rate is above-average but not otherworldly, but he makes up for that by walking just 4.9% of his opponents and generating grounders at a 53.1% rate.

Even with a career-high 6.5% barrel rate allowed this year, Fried remains one of the sport’s best hurlers when it comes to pitching to contact. His 2.74 FIP and 3.17 SIERA are both elite as well, and more traditional voters will love his 10-2 record, which is good for the most pitcher wins in baseball this year and the best winning percentage in the AL.

Hunter Brown

Brown is in the midst of an exciting breakout season with the Astros at just 26 years old. His 1.88 ERA is the lowest figure in all of baseball among qualified starters, and while he has just 91 innings of work under his belt so far, he’s still averaging more than six innings per start. Brown’s heroics have helped push the Astros back to the front of the pack in the AL West after a tough start to the year.

There are some reasons to doubt Brown’s ability to sustain quite this level of dominance. He’s benefited from a .244 BABIP and an 88.4% strand rate. That good fortune on batted balls and sequencing is very likely to regress toward the mean eventually, though his 2.84 FIP and 2.96 SIERA are still excellent thanks largely to a 31.6% strikeout rate, an 8.1% walk rate and a strong 46.8% ground-ball rate.

Kris Bubic

Bubic has picked up the slack for injured ace Cole Ragans in the Kansas City rotation and has put together an elite season that rivals any of his competition on this list. He’s posted an excellent 2.18 ERA, fanned 26% of his opponents and kept his walk rate down at a sharp 7.3%. Bubic has had some good fortune when it comes to home runs, however; only 4.8% of the fly-balls he’s allowed have cleared the fence, as compared to the 15.1% homer-to-fly-ball rate he carried into the season. It’s doubtful he can continue quite that level of home run suppression, but he has the makings of a front-line arm even if a few more of those flies start leaving the yard.

Bubic has tossed 91 innings in 15 starts, averaging just a hair over six frames per outing. It’s worth wondering how he’ll hold up as the season wears on. Bubic underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023 and pitched just 66 combined innings between the big leagues and minors. His 91 frames are already his most in a season since he pitched 142 2/3 innings in 2022.

Jacob deGrom

This is the healthiest deGrom has been in a half decade, but you wouldn’t notice virtually any layoff based on the results. The multi-time Cy Young winner has posted a 2.08 ERA and 3.02 FIP across 95 1/3 innings in his age-37 season. He’s set down 25.9% of his opponents on strikes and only walked 5.5% of the batters he’s faced. deGrom had some short starts early, but he’s averaging nearly 6 1/3 innings per outing with a 1.67 ERA dating back to April 18.

As with Bubic, there are workload questions. This is already the most innings deGrom has pitched in a season since 2019. He’s only 33 1/3 innings away from matching his combined total from 2022-24 (majors and minors included).

Other Options

The field of potential AL Cy Young candidates this year is a very deep one. Framber Valdez remains one of the sport’s top ground ball pitchers with a 59.5% grounder rate to go alongside his 2.88 ERA and 3.04 FIP in 16 starts. Joe Ryan has a 2.86 ERA, including a 2.38 mark over the past two months. Drew Rasmussen boasts a 2.45 ERA, but his 84 1/3 innings place him more than 30 frames behind the league leaders. They’re all pitching well enough that a big second half could get them in the conversation. Nathan Eovaldi has an absurd 1.56 ERA on the season, but he’s missed the past month with triceps inflammation. Relievers Andrés Muñoz (18 saves, 1.21 ERA), Aroldis Chapman (14 saves, 1.36 ERA) and Josh Hader (21 saves, 1.73 ERA) have all been brilliant, but it’s hard enough for relievers to get consideration in a normal season — let alone one where the top group of starters has performed this well.

Who do you think will ultimately come out on top in AL Cy Young voting? Will Skubal reign supreme once again, or could another challenger step up to claim the trophy? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: NL MVP Race Check-In

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While days off and postponements leave clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. Who are the frontrunners to claim the MVP Award this offseason? MLBTR’s look at the American League saw Aaron Judge come away with 55% of the vote, and today we’ll be checking out the National League:

Shohei Ohtani

The reigning NL MVP hasn’t slowed down much after his 50-50 2024 campaign. Ohtani is slashing an incredible .289/.388/.627 (174 wRC+) through 78 games this year, with 27 home runs and 11 steals during that time. His status as a DH holds him back somewhat in terms of WAR, but he’s still second in the NL among hitters according to Fangraphs. He leads the league in homers and slugging percentage and clocks in within the top five in terms of on-base percentage. Ohtani’s expected numbers are quite good as well, as his .435 xwOBA is actually better than his wOBA and trails only Juan Soto among NL hitters. Of course, the real ace in the hole for Ohtani is the fact that he’s returning to pitching this year. He’s only thrown two innings so far, but his stuff has looked good in those abbreviated outings and he figures to only ramp up the volume as the season progresses.

Ohtani’s unicorn status as the only true two-way player in the sport will likely make him a frontrunner for the MVP Award every season until he either starts facing significant decline or retires from pitching. That said, he does not currently hold sole possession of the NL lead for fWAR even when combining his pitching and hitting numbers this year. His offensive numbers have not been quite as robust as they were last year, and he notably is not stealing bases anywhere near as frequently as he did when he was the second most valuable baserunner in the NL last season. For a player who’s won an MVP award in three of the last four seasons, voter fatigue can be a consideration as well; just ask Ohtani’s former teammate Mike Trout about the 2015 season. Will those potential weak spots be enough to let another player overcome him?

Pete Crow-Armstrong

The dynamic 23-year-old’s breakout has been one of the biggest stories in the entire sport this year. Despite entering the 2025 season as a career 82 wRC+ hitter across parts of two seasons in the majors, Crow-Armstrong has slashed .273/.310/.563 (140 wRC+) across 78 games. That’s a very low on-base percentage for an MVP candidate, but Crow-Armstrong makes up for that flaw by being elite in every other regard. He’s fifth in the NL with 21 home runs, his 24 stolen bases are second only to Oneil Cruz, and he’s one of the most valuable defenders in the entire sport with +10 Outs Above Average. Taken together, it’s enough to give Crow-Armstrong a 4.0 fWAR figure that leads the league among hitters, and is tied with Ohtani when the latter’s work on the mound is factored in.

For those less statistically inclined, the fact that his breakout has been key to the Cubs’ ascent from mediocrity to become one of the league’s heavyweights could hold value with voters who differentiate between the “most valuable” player in the league and the “best” player in the league. Even with all of that going for him, it’s hard to consider Crow-Armstrong the favorite. Ohtani’s star power and uniqueness as a two-way player is difficult to match, and if he’s able to pitch effectively throughout the second half, it will be very difficult for Crow-Armstrong to not fall behind on the WAR leaderboard. What’s more, advanced metrics are somewhat skeptical of his offensive performance this year, as his .356 xwOBA is 16 points lower than his actual wOBA of .372. Crow-Armstrong’s plate discipline issues go beyond his anemic walk rate; he swings more often than any qualified hitter in baseball but has a below-average contact rate both overall and more specifically on pitches within the strike zone.

James Wood

He’s lagging behind both Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong at this point, but Wood has been every bit the phenom the Nationals hoped he would be when acquiring him as part of the Juan Soto trade back in 2022. He’s hitting .281/.377/.561 (158 wRC+) in 80 games to go along with nine steals and solid defense in left field. His underlying offensive metrics are also immaculate, with top of the scale expected numbers, elite bat speed, and a 99th percentile barrel rate. It’s an exciting offensive performance, particularly from a player who’s just 22 years old. Some MVP voters could also hold the fact that Wood and his Nationals are not contenders against the budding young star.

Fernando Tatis Jr.

Tatis is a familiar face in the NL MVP race, as he finished fourth for the award in 2020 before coming in third the following year. Injuries, a PED suspension, and a move from shortstop to right field have all changed the way Tatis is viewed around the league in the years since. That hasn’t stopped him from remaining a force within the Padres lineup, and this year he’s been one of the better all-around players in the NL. He’s slashing .264/.352/.459 (129 wRC+) with 15 homers and 15 steals, and his defensive value is second only to Crow-Armstrong among NL outfielders. Tatis also benefits from strong underlying numbers; his .390 xwOBA is 37 points higher than his .353 wOBA, and if he can play closer to those expected numbers in the second half, he could push his way up to the top of some ballots.

Other Options

While Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong appear to be the clear frontrunners at this point, Wood and Tatis aren’t the only potential challengers. Corbin Carroll is in the midst of a sensational season and was right there in the mix with the top two until news a wrist fracture yesterday left it uncertain when he’ll take the field next. Trea Turner and Kyle Tucker have both been excellent and could find themselves more firmly in this conversation if things break right in the second half. Will Smith is one of the league’s top hitters this year with a 170 wRC+ made all the more impressive by his status as a regular catcher, but he’s only played in 63 games so far.

Juan Soto’s first half has been somewhat disappointing by his standards (147 wRC+), but he’s on an absolute tear right now and his .458 xwOBA is right in line with last year’s monster performance. Elly De La Cruz is flirting with pace for a 40-40 season but hasn’t been nearly as rangy at shortstop this season in the eyes of defensive metrics, which has weighed him down a bit. He could still easily emerge as a candidate with a big second half. Paul Skenes, Logan Webb, and Zack Wheeler are all in the midst of dominant seasons on the mound, but it’s somewhat rare for a pitcher to win the MVP award.

Who do you think will ultimately come out on top in NL MVP voting? Will Ohtani reign supreme once again, or could another challenger like Crow-Armstrong step up to claim the trophy? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: AL MVP Race Check-In

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While days off and postponements leave clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. With an MVP set to be crowned in both leagues after the season, that means two players are already halfway through a year that will earn them the sport’s most prestigious individual award. Who are the frontrunners to claim the trophy for themselves this offseason? We’ll be looking at both leagues over the next two days, starting with the American League:

Aaron Judge

Major stars like Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, and Kyle Tucker have migrated to the National League in recent years, but Judge would arguably have entered the season as the odds-on favorite even if he were still competing with them. The slugger already won the MVP award in both 2022 and ’24. Ohtani won back-to-back MVP awards in 2023 and ’24, but those were for two different teams in two different leagues. Judge would be the first player to win back-to-back MVPs in the same league since Miguel Cabrera in 2012 and ’13. Uncommon as the feat may be, Judge seems well positioned to pull it off. His .367/.468/.727 (225 wRC+) slash line is nothing short of comical, and he already has an absurd 6.0 WAR season according to Fangraphs through just 77 games.

That’s a higher total than stars like Jackson Merrill and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. were able to cobble together in a full slate of games last year, and it’s hard to argue with those numbers. Dominant as Judge has been, however, it must be pointed out that he’s currently benefiting from an eye-popping .453 BABIP. That figure is 100 points higher than his career mark, which is already at the high end of the spectrum for sustainable BABIP figures. It would be the highest BABIP by a qualified player since 1871 if he were to maintain it over a full season, and just the second time a player posted a BABIP of even .400 since 2002, joining Yoan Moncada’s 2019 campaign.

Cal Raleigh

If anyone has a chance to challenge Judge for the title, Raleigh likely has the best shot. He’s hit a whopping 31 home runs this season to capture the MLB-wide lead, and his .276/.383/.659 (191 wRC+) slash line is almost as incredible as that of Judge. Raleigh’s 5.1 fWAR is second in the majors to Judge as well, and he’s even managed to chip in on the bases by swiping nine bags in 11 opportunities. Of course, the most impressive thing about Raleigh’s season is that he’s doing all of this while playing the game’s most taxing defensive position. He’s caught 58 of the 75 games he’s appeared in, and if he keeps this up over the full season he’d surpass legendary seasons by Buster Posey in 2012 and Johnny Bench in 1972 to put together the best season behind the plate in MLB history.

The biggest obstacle to Raleigh turning this first-half momentum into an MVP win is, of course, Judge. While Raleigh has the edge in terms of baserunning, defense, home runs, and strikeout rate, Judge is leading in WAR, wRC+, walk rate, all three triple slash categories, and games played. There’s no question about whose season has been more productive when stripping away the context of Raleigh’s position, and Judge might need to cool off significantly in the second half just for their numbers to be comparable when all is said and done.

Bobby Witt Jr.

After finishing second to Judge in 2024 AL MVP voting with a stellar campaign, Witt is back at it this year with another banner year. His elite shortstop glove has made him the second most valuable defender in baseball according to Fangraphs, and he’s already stolen 21 bases after swiping just 31 total last year. With that being said, the power that allowed him to swat 32 homers last year has taken a big step back. The drop off in power has left him with a .286/.343/.490 (123 wRC+) slash line that’s well above average but not quite MVP-caliber, and he would likely need to turn things up a notch in the second half and benefit from steps backward by Judge and Raleigh in order to have a chance at coming home with the trophy.

Jeremy Pena

Perhaps the most surprising entrant into this list, Pena has never so much as made an All-Star appearance in his career but is in the midst of an incredible season. He’s slashed .326/.380/.493 (149 wRC+) in 78 games so far this year with 11 homers and 15 steals in 17 attempts alongside an excellent 16.1% strikeout rate. That wRC+ is seventh-highest among qualified AL hitters, and Pena benefits further from playing a valuable defensive position in shortstop. With that being said, he’s not quite on the level of Witt defensively and his .365 BABIP is elevated well outside the range of his career norms. Like Witt, he’ll likely need a massive slowdown in production from Judge and Raleigh in order to be a serious contender for the award this year.

Other Options

Judge, Raleigh, Witt, and Pena are all more or less in a class of their own at this point in the season, and even Witt and Pena would need a lot to go right in order for them to catch the two front-runners. With that being said, there are some other at least plausible candidates. Tarik Skubal continues to dominate on the mound and his 3.9 fWAR tally matches that of Witt and Pena. Jose Ramirez remains as consistent as ever and could put up another 30-30 season this year. Jonathan Aranda has been one of baseball’s best hitters this year but doesn’t play a premium position. Byron Buxton has flashed all five tools this year with strong defense, elite speed, and a 155 wRC+ but will have trouble garnering much attention with just 60 games played so far.

Who do you think will ultimately come out on top in AL MVP voting? Will Judge reign supreme once again, or could another challenger like Raleigh step up to claim the trophy? Have your say in the poll below:

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