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Poll: Should Nick Pivetta’s Hot Start Be Believed?

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Right-hander Nick Pivetta languished for quite some time on the free agent market after he turned down a Qualifying Offer from the Red Sox in search of a multi-year deal. The 32-year-old wound up being one of the final pitchers to come off the board this winter. He ultimately signed with the Padres on a four-year, $55MM pact that comes with some protection for the club against Pivetta undergoing significant elbow surgery. That relatively low-cost deal seemingly wouldn’t have been difficult for another club to beat this offseason, and so far Pivetta has made the rotation-needy clubs who passed on him look foolish.

In his first five starts this year, Pivetta has pitched to a 1.20 ERA across 30 frames. He’s struck out 27.0% of his opponents, walked just 6.3%, and made it through seven full innings in the majority of his appearances. For years, Pivetta has been viewed around baseball as a potential breakout arm with electric stuff despite never quite putting it together across a full season in the majors, with a career 4.66 ERA and 4.30 FIP. That led the Phillies to deal him to the Red Sox back in 2020, and that led Boston brass to shuffle Pivetta between the bullpen and rotation during the 2023 season. Even his best seasons with the Red Sox from 2021 to 2024 saw him pitch to a middling 4.33 ERA and 4.20 FIP. Could the veteran’s long-anticipated breakout have finally arrived in his first year with San Diego?

The possibility cannot be dismissed out of hand. After all, Pivetta’s success has come in spite of two his his five starts coming against the Cubs, who sport the NL’s best offense and the most runs scored in all of baseball to this point in the calendar. His first start against Chicago was a lackluster one, with three runs allowed in three innings of work, but his second time facing the club saw him strike six batters out while walking just one with one run allowed in six innings of work. Combine that with the seven scoreless innings he twirled against the Tigers and their own top-10 offense in the sport so far, and it’s hard to say Pivetta has coasted through an easy schedule so far this year.

With that being said, there hasn’t been much in the way of drastic changes. Pivetta’s 27.0% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate this year are both better than his career norms, but weaker than last year’s figures of 28.9% and 6.3% respectively. His fastball velocity also remains virtually unchanged from last year, when he posted a fairly pedestrian 4.14 ERA and 4.07 FIP across 145 2/3 innings of work. That lack of tangible change is a potential red flag that suggests this dominance won’t continue, as are Pivetta’s .205 BABIP allowed, 88% strand rate, and 2.9% home run-to-fly ball ratio.

All of those figures as well out of line with not only Pivetta’s career norms but what can be expected for MLB hurlers in general. Pivetta’s HR/FB is particularly noteworthy, however, as home runs have been the righty’s primary bugaboo throughout his career. Pivetta has allowed the fifth highest number of home runs since he arrived in the majors back in 2017 among all pitchers. Among those with at least 800 innings of work since then, Pivetta’s home run rate is also the fifth-highest, while his home run-to-fly ball ratio is ninth-highest. The long ball has always been what’s held Pivetta back throughout his career, but he’s allowed just one home run in his first five starts.

While this year’s level of home run suppression is all but impossible to imagine being sustainable, the underlying metrics do suggest that Pivetta has done better than usual in terms of keeping the barrel off the ball. His 8.1% barrel rate so far this year would be the lowest he’s posted in any season since 2018 if maintained over a full season, and he’s currently sporting a 37.8% hard-hit rate that would be his lowest since 2019. Combine that with the lowest average exit velocity and highest infield fly ball rate of his career, and it’s not hard to see why Pivetta’s allowing less home runs than ever. Regression back to the mean must be expected, but there’s at least some signs that the veteran could allow fewer homers this year than he has in any of his previous full seasons of work.

On yet another hand, there are generally more home runs in the warmer months. It’s perhaps not a coincidence that Pivetta’s career splits form a sort of bell curve, with his ERA lower in the spring and fall but higher in the summer. He has a career 4.01 ERA in March/April, then 4.34 in May, 4.66 in June, 5.11 in July, 6.02 in August, then 3.84 in September/October. As the weather heats up, all pitchers have a harder time keeping the ball in the park, which could be especially noteworthy for Pivetta.

Do MLBTR readers believe in his strong start or is the right-hander going to come back down to Earth eventually? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Can Willson Contreras Get Back On Track?

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When the Cardinals announced over the offseason that they were moving Willson Contreras to first base, it came as something of a surprise given that they we just two years into a five-year deal they gave him to fill the shoes Yadier Molina had stood in for the past 19 years. Signing a bat-first catcher to replace one of the best defenders in baseball history behind the dish was a bold move, and while Contreras hit an excellent .263/.367/.468 (129 wRC+) in his first two seasons as a Cardinal, his tenure behind the plate did not come without controversy. St. Louis moved him off catcher briefly during his first season with the club after complaints about his glove. Last year, he missed time with a broken arm sustained when he was hit by a swing after the organization suggested he move closer to the plate to improve his defense.

If those controversies set the table for the decision to move Contreras away from catching, the departure of incumbent first baseman Paul Goldschmidt for the Bronx this winter and the club’s two up-and-coming catchers Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages making solid cases for more playing time made the possibility that much more realistic. After all, a position change for Contreras would allow the Cardinals to make some progress on their desired youth movement without needing to pull off a trade, and there was at least a possibility that Contreras’s strong bat from his first two seasons with the club could blossom even further if he didn’t need to split his focus between hitting and catching.

Unfortunately, that’s not how things have gone so far. In 24 games this season, Contreras has slashed just .200/.269/.305 this year. That leaves him with a 62 wRC+ that’s not only well below average but also extremely uncharacteristic of him. While questions about Contreras’s defensive abilities have dogged him since the early days of his MLB career with the Cubs, his bat has never been in doubt as he’s posted above-average numbers at the plate by wRC+ in every single year of his career until now. A .258/.353/.461 (121 wRC+) hitter for his career, Contreras had elevated his game to another level since the start of the 2022 season with a .256/.367/.467 (133 wRC+) line across the past three seasons.

Has all of that changed in his age-33 season? It certainly wouldn’t be the first time that a catcher in his early-to-mid 30s suffered a sudden and drastic decline, although moving to first base should at least theoretically help preserve Contreras’s health. The frustrating reality of the veteran’s situation is that, while below-average offense can be acceptable behind the plate, first base is a bat-first position where he’ll need offensive results in order to stick as a regular. That’s even more true with youngsters like Alec Burleson and Luken Baker ready to step in and take their own shots at the first base job if given the opportunity.

As lackluster as Contreras’s work at the dish has been so far this year, it’s not as if all hope is lost. The veteran’s .270 BABIP this year matches his career low, and if it bounces back to something closer to his .309 career level, that would go a long way to lifting his production. Another reason for optimism is that he’s still putting the barrel on the ball fairly often. While his 9.1% barrel rate and 40.9% hard-hit rate this year are the lowest figures he’s posted in either category since 2018, they both remain solid. When combined with his top-of-the-line bat speed, it’s easy to imagine Contreras being able to generate more power than he’s shown so far.

On the other hand, Contreras is already more than 100 plate appearances into his first season as a first baseman, and he’s currently matching his career-high in strikeout rate (28.6%) and pairing that with a career-low walk rate of 6.7%. Contreras has always been a bit of a streaky hitter, as exemplified by his 2018 season where he carried a 123 wRC+ into the All-Star break before hitting a paltry .193/.282/.280 across his final 50 games, so it stands to reason that he may well be just one hot streak away from getting back to being the bat he’s shown himself to be throughout his career. Even with that in mind, the signs of declining plate discipline and reduced power are concerning. That’s especially true when combined with his age and the years of wear and tear he accumulated behind the plate.

How do MLBTR readers think the rest of the 2025 season will go for Contreras? Will he be able to bounce back and post numbers similar to what he’s offered in each of the last three seasons? Or will his first year as a first baseman be the worst offensive season of his career? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Should Spencer Torkelson’s Breakout Be Believed?

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Not long ago, Spencer Torkelson seemed to be out of time. The Tigers first baseman was selected first overall in the 2020 draft to plenty of fanfare, and he instantly became a consensus top-5 talent in the minor leagues. A disappointing rookie season in 2022 tempered those massive expectations, but a strong second half in 2023 caused many around the league to think the following year would be Torkelson’s season to shine. That didn’t happen either, as the slugger was once again a below-average hitter overall and wound up optioned to the minors for much of the year. When the Tigers signed Gleyber Torres to push Colt Keith over to first base, it seemed like a bad omen for 25-year-old’s future in Detroit.

Spring Training changed all of that, as the club’s entire outfield mix save Riley Greene wound up on the injured list. That opened up enough roster spots for Torkelson to have a real shot at the Opening Day roster, and he made the most of the opportunity by hitting .340/.389/.680 in 55 plate appearances during camp. Spring stats only count for so much due to the less competitive environment, however, and Torkelson would need to show out in actual major league games if he was going to turn his career around. So far, he’s done just that. Torkelson has not only been the Tigers’ best hitter this year, but he’s been one of the top hitters in the majors.

Across 24 games this year, the slugger has slashed an excellent .273/.377/.591 with a wRC+ of 176. It’s enough to have made him the 12th-best qualified hitter in the major leagues to this point in the year. It’s early enough in the season that the leaderboard still looks fairly unusual; just ahead of Torkelson with a 177 wRC+ is veteran outfielder George Springer, who it goes without saying is unlikely to maintain a .444 BABIP all season long. While there’s plenty of reasons to be skeptical of small-sample performances, many of them don’t apply to the 106 plate appearances Torkelson has taken to this point in the year.

Torkelson’s BABIP is .309, which is the highest of his career but well within the range of expected outcomes for a hitter and not substantially higher than the .285 BABIP he posted last season. The fact that Torkelson is hitting the ball on a line (17.7% line drive rate) more often than last year (15.1%) surely helps his outcomes on balls in play, as well. His 26.4% strikeout rate is also a tick lower than last year’s 27.6%, but none of these are the most encouraging signs regarding Torkelson’s start to the 2025 campaign. The most exciting news here is that he’s not only resumed crushing the ball at the level he was during the 2023 season, but that he’s paired it with newfound patience at the plate.

The 25-year-old is swinging less than ever, at just 44.3% of his pitches. Torkelson’s swing rates both inside and outside of the strike zone are lower than ever, and that newfound patience has allowed him to not only draw walks at a phenomenal 13.2% clip but also make more contact when he does swing. His 10.2% swinging strike rate this year is the lowest of his career, and he’s making contact on 52.2% of pitches he swings at outside of the zone after putting the bat on just 40.6% of those same pitches last year.

That more judicious approach at the plate has allowed Torkelson to rediscover his titanic power after posting a paltry .155 ISO last year. He has seven homers and seven doubles already this year, and that power is backed up by his underlying numbers: he’s managed a phenomenal 17.7% barrel rate that would be by far the highest of his career if maintained over the full season and is nearly triple last year’s 6.1% clip, and 50.0% of his balls have been considered hard hit, good for a 95mph exit velocity or higher.

All of this is extremely impressive, and if Torkelson can keep anything close to this going for the full year, he’ll have finally tapped into the potential scouts saw in him half a decade ago as an amateur. Over his final 300 plate appearances in 2023, Torkelson hit .238/.320/.506 with a wRC+ of 125. His 26.7% strikeout rate was more or less identical over that stretch to this year’s figure. His 16.6% barrel rate and 52.2% hard-hit rate weren’t far off, either. Those numbers are all close enough to serve as a reminder that Torkelson’s first 100 plate appearances this year don’t guarantee his future production will be close to as impactful, although his 2025 numbers do have a few key advantages over his second-half numbers in 2023.

For one thing, Torkelson’s line drive rate is three points higher while his soft contact rate is nine points lower this season. Those figures could help to explain the huge difference in BABIP, which sat at just .262 during his final 300 trips to the plate in 2023. His discipline is also noticeably improved, as he walked 10.0% of the time during that stretch, nearly four points lower than this year. If Torkelson’s improved plate discipline holds up and he continues to make soft contact this sparingly, it’s not hard to imagine him being able to keep up this level of production over the long haul.

What do MLBTR readers think of Torkelson’s hot start? Is this finally the year he puts it all together and looks like the dominant offensive force he was always expected to be, or will this prove to be another flash in the pan like his late 2023 production? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Can The Twins Still Bounce Back?

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The 2024 season ended in heartbreaking fashion for Twins fans. Despite Minnesota looking all but locked into a playoff spot at the start of September, a brutal 9-18 record combined with a shocking 17-8 surge for the Tigers was enough to leave Twins players on their couches back home come October. While a fourth-place finish in the AL Central was tough to swallow, the team’s core of talent was largely set to remain in place for 2025, providing some reason for optimism that a team that was held back from the playoffs by one terrible and injury-filled month could turn things around and contend again.

Unfortunately, that hasn’t come to pass. The Twins made were largely inactive for the majority of the offseason, with only minor additions to the roster like the signings of Ty France, Danny Coulombe, and Harrison Bader. In a division where rival clubs made notable additions or reunions (e.g. Gleyber Torres, Jonathan India, Jack Flaherty, Michael Wacha) it was fair to wonder if Minnesota had done enough to keep up. So far, it seems they did not. The Twins are 7-15. That’s the third-lowest win percentage in all of baseball ahead of only the lowly White Sox and Rockies.

A rotation that’s thrown the third-fewest innings in the majors this year with a subpar 4.30 ERA is one factor, but the biggest culprit is a lineup that’s hit just .211/.282/.338 with a wRC+ of 82. That’s 18 points worse than league average and leaves Minnesota with the fifth-worst offense in the league. Byron Buxton and Matt Wallner have been bright spots, but the latter is now on the injured list. Meanwhile, players like Edouard Julien, Ryan Jeffers, and Trevor Larnach have failed to perform. Shortstop Carlos Correa has followed last year’s outstanding .310/.388/.517 performance with a .194/.256/.319 slash line in 78 plate appearances. Royce Lewis has yet to play a game, owing to a hamstring strain.

Dire as things may look, the Twins aren’t even 15% of the way through their season; perhaps it’s too soon to make any grand pronouncements about a club with what looks to be a solid core on paper. After all, the aforementioned Tigers of last season suffered an 8-18 stretch from June 5 to July 4 that featured an even lower winning percentage than Minnesota’s current record, and they went on to fight their way back into contention even after trading away four veterans — including the previously mentioned Flaherty — at the deadline.

That’s not the full story, of course. While the 162-game schedule is a marathon, a major checkpoint is approaching much more quickly: trade season. The trade deadline is 100 days from today. The Twins would have to play at a 91-win pace from now on to even make it back to .500 in time for the All-Star break. It’s anyone’s guess if the club would consider parting ways with major pieces under team control like Pablo Lopez or Jhoan Duran, but even shipping out rental pieces like France, Coulombe, Willi Castro and Harrison Bader would surely stifle the club’s attempts to contend.

The most important x-factor for the Twins, as is the case most years, will be player health. Lopez is expected back from the injured list later this week to help out the rotation, while the lineup figures to receive reinforcements when Wallner and Lewis are activated next month. If those key players make it back healthy and effective within the next few weeks, that could spark a turnaround. By the same token, a setback for any of those players or a long-term injury for another key player could wind up being a nail in the coffin for a team that has given itself very little margin for error with such a dismal start.

What do MLBTR readers think the future holds for the Twins? Will the club be able to get healthy and bring playoff baseball back to Minnesota, or are the Twins staring down a second consecutive disappointing finish? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Will Alec Bohm Turn Things Around?

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The Phillies have enjoyed a solid enough start to their season to this point. Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Nick Castellanos are all off to hot starts, the starting pitching has largely looked as strong as ever despite the absence of Ranger Suarez, and the late-inning dominance of both Jose Alvarado and Matt Strahm has made the losses of Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez look manageable. Despite those positives, however, Philadelphia has fallen behind the Mets in the early going. Much of that is due to New York sporting the best pitching staff in baseball to this point in the year. While in theory the Phillies’ superior offensive numbers should help to balance that out, hot starts by most of the lineup’s key players have been negated in part by the deep struggles faced by outfielder Brandon Marsh and third baseman Alec Bohm.

Marsh was placed on the 10-day injured yesterday after going without a hit through the first two and a half weeks of April, but there’s no evidence of a physical explanation for Bohm’s struggles. The 28-year-old has slashed just .193/.211/.261 with a wRC+ of 30 that indicates he’s been 70% worse than league average at the plate so far this year. Those numbers have come in 90 plate appearances. It’s not a sample size at which most offensive stats have stabilized, but a month of production is still a significant chunk of the season. Adding fuel to the concerns surrounding Bohm is the fact that the infielder fell off a bit in the second half last year after strong early-season production. He slashed just .251/.299/.382 in 204 plate appearances after the All-Star break last year. Putting those two stretches together, Bohm is left with a set of nearly 300 plate appearances where he’s posted a lackluster 71 wRC+.

That sort of performance would not be acceptable for an everyday third baseman on a playoff contender. That’s especially true of Bohm given that he’s neither a top-notch defender nor a meaningful contributor on the bases. While some defensive metrics liked Bohm’s work at third base last year as demonstrated by his +5 Outs Above Average, there’s plenty of reason to view that figure as a bit of an outlier. Bohm’s been one of the worst defenders in baseball this year with -3 OAA already, and he’s been below average in every season of his career outside of 2024. Meanwhile, he’s never stolen more than five bases in a season or produced positive baserunning value in a full campaign according to Fangraphs’ BsR metric.

With so much emphasis on Bohm’s bat, the silver lining here is that there’s some encouraging signs in his underlying production this year. Specifically, Bohm’s batted ball metrics look quite good despite the complete absence of results. His 51.4% hard-hit rate is nearly seven points higher than his career average and six points above last year’s mark. He’s also sporting an 8.3% barrel rate that’s well above his career norms and in line with what power hitters like Josh Naylor and Randy Arozarena offered last year. The only noticeable flaw in Bohm’s batted ball data is that he’s hitting it on the ground too often; his 50% groundball rate would be his highest since 2021, leaving him with a career-worst 20.8% line drive rate and a flyball rate down nearly four points from last year.

In addition to Bohm’s struggles with elevating the ball to this point in the year, he’s suffered from a steep decline in plate discipline. Bohm struck out in just 14.8% of his plate appearances in each of the last two years, so this season that figure jumping to 17.8% is at least somewhat notable. More concerning than that, however is his shockingly low 1.1% walk rate. Bohm has draw just one walk to this point in the season; not only is that by far the fewest of any hitter with as many plate appearances as Bohm this year, just 15 other hitters in the whole sport with even half of Bohm’s 90 trips to the plate haven’t drawn at least two walks yet. A look under the hood suggests that Bohm is swinging at fewer strikes (65.7%) than ever before in his career while swinging outside the zone more often (27.5%) than he did last year.

Those numbers are both still relatively close to his career norms, so perhaps Bohm’s walk rate can get back to something closer to normal over a larger sample size. If he can do that and start elevating the ball a bit more often, it’s easy enough to see him rebounding to be a solid contributor this year. It remains an open question, however, as to whether or not he’ll get that opportunity. After all, Edmundo Sosa has plenty of experience at third base and has gotten off to a scorching start this year with a .414/.438/.552 slash line. That’s come in a sample of just 32 plate appearances and is heavily inflated by a massive .571 BABIP, but if the Phillies fall further behind the Mets in the standings while Bohm continues to struggle, making a switch is hardly unthinkable. There’s also the trade deadline over the horizon, where the Phils might have options to upgrade on Bohm, with Nolan Arenado rumors likely to ramp up again between now and then.

How do MLBTR readers think things will play out with Bohm? Will he still be the starting third baseman in Philadelphia at the end of the year? And will he have bounced back to put up numbers more in line with his career 101 wRC+? Have your say in the polls below:

Poll: Can The Giants Sustain Their Hot Start?

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When the Giants completed their 19th game of the 2021 season four years ago, they were 12-7, two games behind the reigning World Series champion Dodgers for the NL West lead. After four straight seasons with losing records, few expected a Giants club that was largely unchanged from the year prior to find any sort of success even after their solid start to the season. Even fewer expected what would actually come to pass, as San Francisco improbably went on to win 107 games and squeak out a division title over L.A. by just one game.

Flash forward to this year, and the Giants are 13-6 after their 19th game of the season and even closer to the once again reigning World Series champion Dodgers in the standings, sitting just half a game back. For fans in San Francisco who were jaded by the three seasons of mediocrity since that magical 2021 campaign, the Giants’ start has been a huge breath of fresh air. Scorching hot starts from outfielders Jung Hoo Lee and Mike Yastrzemski have helped carry the offense to the third-highest total of runs scored in the majors entering play today. Logan Webb has continued to play his part as a perennial candidate for the Cy Young award. The bullpen’s sterling 1.89 ERA is the second-best figure in all of baseball.

Those are encouraging signs, and there’s an argument that the team figures to get better in some areas. Willy Adames hasn’t begun to hit yet after signing the largest contract in franchise history. LaMonte Wade Jr. certainly won’t hit .102 all year, and even if he did continue to flounder, top prospect Bryce Eldridge could eventually be called upon to fill his shoes at first base. The rotation’s lackluster ERA (4.80) is nearly a full run higher than its FIP (3.90) and SIERA (4.00); Justin Verlander and Jordan Hicks almost certainly won’t continue running ERAs north of 6.00.

Projection systems have begun to generally buy into San Francisco’s hot start. FanGraphs gives the Giants a 51.3% chance to make the postseason with a projected record of 86-76, a massive step forward from their preseason projections (81-81, 28.5% postseason chance).

That’s not to say there are no potential red flags, of course. The rotation has looked rough outside of Webb. The rest of the group figures to bounce back from rough starts to at least some extent, but Robbie Ray’s velocity is at its second-lowest mark ever and he’s walking nearly 18% of his opponents. Could this version of Ray, a 42-year-old Verlander or Hicks serve as a credible No. 2 starter for a playoff team? That could be asking a lot. Meanwhile, the bullpen is currently outperforming both its FIP and SIERA by nearly a run and a half.

The biggest obstacle for the Giants if they want to maintain their current success, however, is the landscape of the NL West. Their excellent 13-6 record is good for only third place in the division and just one game ahead of the fourth-place D-backs (who’d won five straight and seven of their past eight). Arizona, San Diego, and especially L.A. entered the season not just as projected contenders, but potentially dominant clubs. Their own starts to the season have done little to change those expectations, and while the Giants have pulled off some impressive series wins against clubs like the Yankees and Astros, they’ve yet to play a single game against their own division.

Their first big test in that regard will be a two-game set against the Padres at the end of the month. The Giants will be in Arizona for the first time about a month from now, and they won’t face the Dodgers until mid-June. Perhaps being able to save difficult matchups against division rivals for later in the season will allow the Giants to build enough of a cushion to sustain themselves through the trade deadline, when they can add reinforcements. A stretch of 13 straight games against the D-backs and Dodgers in mid-September presents a potentially formidable roadblock late in the season.

How sustainable do MLBTR readers believe San Francisco’s hot start to be? Will they be able to exceed preseason expectations that they’d finish around .500, or perhaps even make it to October? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: When Should The Marlins Trade Sandy Alcantara?

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While this year’s trade deadline is still more than three months away, there’s perhaps no more obvious trade candidate in the game right now than Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara. The 2022 NL Cy Young award winner, Alcantara missed last season due to Tommy John surgery but is back in action with Miami this year. While he was out of commission, the Marlins tore the roster that made the playoffs in 2023 down to the studs, trading everyone from Luis Arraez and Jazz Chisholm Jr. to Trevor Rogers and Jesus Luzardo. With no end in sight to the rebuild and Alcantara controlled through the 2027 season, it would be a complete shock if the Marlins held onto him until his contract came to a close.

Whenever the Marlins trade Alcantara, he’s sure to be an extremely sought-after commodity. The right-hander’s 4.70 ERA in three starts this year is far from impressive, but his peripherals have looked better. He’s generating grounders at a phenomenal 65.1% clip with a 3.86 FIP and a 3.91 xERA despite his lackluster 19% strikeout rate and 12.7% walk rate. Those strikeout and walk figures will become concerning if they hold up over a larger sample size, but unless that comes to pass, it seems fair to expect the righty to return to his previous dominant form. Since his full-season debut in 2019, Alcantara has posted a 3.33 ERA with a 3.71 FIP, a 51% grounder rate, and a 21.4% strikeout rate against a 7.1% walk rate.

Those numbers don’t hold a candle to his Cy Young season, where he posted a 2.28 ERA and 2.80 FIP in a campaign that led MLB with 8.0 bWAR, but it’s still clearly front-of-the-rotation caliber production overall. Perhaps even more enticing to teams than Alcantara’s rate production is his status as a true workhorse in a game where arms capable of pitching deep into games on a regular basis have become vanishingly rare. Alcantara hasn’t posted less than 184 2/3 innings in any of his four full seasons, and his 858 1/3 innings of work from 2019 to 2023 were second only to Gerrit Cole. That sort of volume would have value even if Alcantara was a league-average pitcher, given the increasing difficulty with which teams are forced to piece together their rotations.

He’s also appealing from a financial point of view. He is making $17MM this year and next year, less than half of what some other ace pitchers get. Then there’s a $2MM buyout on a $21MM club option for 2027.

Given his ace-level upside, workhorse reputation, years of control, and affordable contract, Alcantara’s status as one of the most valuable trade chips in the sport is unlikely to change. That gives the Marlins the ability to stay flexible with their plans regarding the prized righty. Reporters Will Sammon of The Athletic and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald have suggested that the Marlins have not yet decided if they’ll trade Alcantara at all this season. Alcantara himself tells Jackson that he wants to stay in Miami but is aware that he has no say in the matter. “I’m [just] a player,” he said. “If they want to trade me for a bag, they can trade me.” While the righty eventually getting moved appears to be something of a fait accompli, the Fish would still have two full seasons of team control to market if they opted to move him this offseason instead.

Of course, teams will likely be willing to pay a higher premium for Alcantara at the deadline, when they’d have him available for three pennant races and he wouldn’t be competing with a free agent market rich in rotation talent like Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen, and Framber Valdez. Unless the 8-10 Marlins are able to make a surprise surge into contention for an NL Wild Card spot this summer or Alcantara’s performance declines enough that lucrative trade offers start to dry up, it’s hard to see the club getting more value out of their star by waiting for the offseason. With that said, another year of information regarding their prospects and young players could allow them to make more informed decisions about which areas of the roster to target improvements for in the return package.

Could the Marlins benefit from moving Alcantara even earlier, as they did with Arraez last May? Such a decision wouldn’t give Alcantara much of an opportunity to prove he’s healthy and back to his usual form, but the extra few months of starts could be very attractive to clubs like the Yankees, Cubs, and Padres that are dealing with injury woes in their rotation already. What’s more, it’s not impossible to imagine a team like the Astros (Valdez), Twins (Pablo Lopez), or Royals (Seth Lugo) that is currently attempting to compete winding up on the outside of the playoff picture come July and marketing their own top starters. That would give potential suitors for Alcantara alternative options they surely wouldn’t have available to them this early in the calendar.

When do MLBTR readers think the Marlins should start trying to trade Alcantara? Would jumping the market and opening up the bidding now allow them to maximize their asset, should they wait to see if Alcantara can re-establish himself more before putting him on the market this summer, or could waiting even longer to deal him this offseason be the best course to take? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Should The Nationals Have Been More Aggressive This Winter?

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The Nationals lost 91 games in 2024 but entered this winter with an arrow that was seemingly pointed upwards. Key young players like CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore took steps forward, while others like James Wood and Dylan Crews made their big league debuts. Between those positive signs for the future and the onerous Patrick Corbin contract finally coming off the club’s books, it was widely speculated around baseball that the Nationals could be a player in the upper echelons of free agency for the first time since their rebuild began in 2021. They instead opted for a much more reserved approach in free agency.

Fan speculation that the club could attempt to enter the Juan Soto bidding to pair their former superstar with the package of youngsters they acquired for him back in 2022 was always farfetched, but the club’s passive winter went beyond not taking a swing at free agency’s top dog. Rather than pursue a big bat at first base like Pete Alonso, GM Mike Rizzo and his front office swung a trade for Nathaniel Lowe and signed Josh Bell. Alex Bregman would’ve made plenty of sense as an addition at third base, but the club opted to take low-cost fliers on Paul DeJong and Amed Rosario instead.

That measured approach to upgrading the lineup carried over to the pitching staff as well. The Nats didn’t appear interested in a mid-rotation veteran like Nick Pivetta or a potential ace like Jack Flaherty who could lead the pitching staff, even when both lingered on the market into February. They settled on depth options like Michael Soroka and Shinnosuke Ogasawara behind their stable of young arms. Even pricey one-year relief arms like Kenley Jansen and Jose Leclerc signed by other clubs looking to take a step forward toward contention were eschewed in favor of non-tendering and then re-signing Kyle Finnegan.

None of those depth moves were necessarily bad on paper, and some of them have worked out so far. Finnegan has looked good in his return to the club’s closer role to this point. It’s hard to argue with Lowe’s .250/.339/.500 slash line as a massive upgrade over what Joey Meneses and Joey Gallo offered D.C. last year. Rosario has looked solid in the utility role he found some success in with the Rays last year. Despite those early successes, the club’s mostly passive offseason frustrated some fans in the nation’s capital. The Nats are just 6-9 to this point in the year and stand little hope of overcoming titanic teams like the Mets and Phillies as presently constructed.

Of course, that well may have been true even if the team had splurged on higher-profile free agents. The Phillies have been one of the NL’s biggest juggernauts for years now and show little sign of slowing down. The Mets added Soto to a team that already made the NLCS. Even with a shocking 4-11 start in Atlanta opening the door to contention a bit more for the Nationals, they’d have a steep hill to climb to get back to the postseason this year. Club owner Mark Lerner suggested to Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post back in February that the gap between where the Nationals stood entering the winter and the league’s playoff-caliber clubs was too big to justify a significant outlay.

“When Mike calls me in and says, ‘We really need to think about it,’ for next winter, we’ll talk about it,” Lerner told Svrluga. “Right now, he doesn’t think — and I agree with him: There’s no point in getting a superstar and paying him hundreds of millions of dollars to win two or three more games.”

Lerner went on to highlight the club’s decision to sign Jayson Werth to a seven-year, $126MM deal prior to the 2011 season, suggesting that they signed Werth when the club was “right on the cusp” of finding success. That comparison is a somewhat questionable one, however. The 2010 Nationals actually posted a worse record than the 2024 club, losing 93 games, and the Nats finished with a lackluster 80-81 record in Werth’s first year in D.C. before taking off in 2012 thanks in part to the arrival of Bryce Harper.

By contrast, players like Wood, Gore and Abrams are already in place with the club and finding success in the majors. Slow starts this year for Crews and Luis Garcia Jr. highlight the inconsistencies that come with a team built around young talent, but proven veterans would help to paper over those struggles and create a more well-balanced roster. Perhaps that wouldn’t be enough to get the Nationals back to the postseason this year, but a record better than the one the team produced back in 2011 would’ve been within reach. A win total in the low-to-mid 80s can even be enough to squeak into the playoffs in the era of 12 playoff teams, as demonstrated by clubs like the Marlins, Royals, and Tigers in recent years.

What do MLBTR readers think about the Nationals’ decision to hold off on ramping spending back up? Should they have moved more aggressively to exit their rebuilding phase this winter, or were they wise to wait for their young players to develop more before committing to a win-now approach? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Which Top Prospect Will Arrive In Boston Next?

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After an offseason that saw the Red Sox get aggressive in improving the big league club by adding Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler, and Alex Bregman, the club showed a different kind of aggressiveness when they included top infield prospect Kristian Campbell on their Opening Day roster. That move has certainly paid off for them so far; not only has Campbell signed on with the club long-term, but he’s hitting an excellent .318/.426/.545 across his first 13 games in the major leagues while serving as the club’s regular second baseman and occasionally making appearances in the outfield.

Campbell wasn’t the only top prospect the Red Sox had knocking on the door to the majors this spring, however. Outfielder Roman Anthony and infielder Marcelo Mayer are rated just as highly as Campbell, with all three being consensus top-15 prospects across the entire sport. While a vacancy at second base and Campbell’s impressive work flying through the minor leagues last year were enough to get him called up to the majors first among the trio, it should surprise no one if all three are in the majors in relatively short order. With that being said, it remains unclear which of Anthony and Mayer are most likely to make it to the majors next.

Anthony, 21 next month, has a strong case to come up and contribute soon. As a consensus top-two prospect in the sport who has been ranked number one overall by multiple major publications, Anthony’s ceiling is immense. Last year, he slashed .291/.396/.498 between the Double- and Triple-A levels, including a phenomenal .344/.463/.519 slash line when looking just at his 35 games (164 plate appearances) at the highest level of the minor leagues. That hot finish at Triple-A created plenty of buzz about the possibility of Anthony breaking camp with the Red Sox over the offseason, but Anthony’s .206/.391/.324 slash line in Spring Training this year wasn’t enough to convince Boston brass that their top prospect was ready for the next step.

His early season performance at Triple-A hasn’t exactly demanded consideration for a promotion, either. Through ten games, Anthony is hitting .177/.364/.412 in his return to the club’s Worcester affiliate. While that’s a sample of just 44 plate appearances, Anthony’s 31.8% strikeout rate so far this year at the very least suggests he’s running a bit cold right now, though that he’s been able to walk at a 22.7% clip and bash a pair of homers while doing so is certainly impressive. MassLive’s Chris Cotillo recently suggested that the Red Sox are currently hoping to see more production from Anthony against left-handed pitchers before he makes it to the big leagues. That’s on top of a need for Anthony to work on his defense, which will be challenged as he appears likely to move from center field to left upon being called up to the majors.

That to-do list and Anthony’s middling play early in the season could open the door for Mayer to beat him to the majors. The 22-year-old provided a strong challenge to Campbell for the second base job during Spring Training as he hit .333/.455/.528 during camp, though Mayer’s lack of experience above the Double-A level always made him a less likely option to get the job. Mayer’s first taste of Triple-A has seen him cool off significant relative to his spring performance, as he’s hit just .243/.282/.405 with a 28.2% strikeout rate through nine games at the level. He’ll surely need to start hitting better than that with Worcester before he gets called up to the majors, although the club hasn’t laid out any more specific issues that Mayer needs to address before he can be called up like they have with Anthony.

The fact that the club has specific areas they’d like to see Anthony grow before he reaches the majors, in conjunction with Mayer finishing as arguably the runner up behind Campbell for the club’s starting second base job, would seem to suggest that Mayer is closer to being promoted than Anthony is. However, Anthony has one major leg up in this conversation relative to Mayer: the construction of Boston’s lineup. With Campbell serving as the club’s regular second baseman, there is no longer an obvious spot on the infield which Mayer can take up. Campbell, Triston Casas, Alex Bregman, and Trevor Story are all slated for regular at-bats this year, and even the DH role is filled by Rafael Devers on a daily basis.

Either an injury somewhere on the infield, a move to the outfield for Campbell, or a shocking move to bench Story would likely be necessary for Mayer to muscle his way into the lineup at this point. The same cannot be said of Anthony, who has a fairly straightforward path to playing time in the club’s outfield mix. Ceddanne Rafaela has served as the club’s usual center fielder entering the 2025 campaign, but he’s hit just .243/.275/.378 in the majors to this point in his career, including a paltry .205/.279/.205 line so far this year. While he’s a brilliant defender in center field, that’s not the type of production that should keep a team from promoting the sport’s top prospect to the majors once he’s ready. Rafaela, who has the ability to play both the infield and the outfield, could move to a utility role on the bench similar to the one Enrique Hernandez once filled once Anthony is ready to go. Anthony could either plug in directly for Rafaela in center field, or he could be tasked with manning left field while Jarren Duran slides over to center.

How do MLBTR readers think things will play out? Will Anthony make it to the majors first, off the back of his status as the sport’s #1 prospect and a potential opening in the outfield? Or will the club’s desire to see Anthony hit more against southpaws in the minors and Mayer’s strong work in Spring Training be enough to get him to the majors first? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Kyle Tucker’s Earning Power

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The biggest news from the baseball world of late is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s $500MM extension with the Blue Jays, which will keep him in Toronto through the end of the 2039 season. Guerrero and Kyle Tucker were widely viewed as the top free agents of the coming offseason. Now that Guerrero is off the board, the top of the mountain belongs to Tucker, the superstar outfielder who the Cubs gave up a massive package (All-Star infielder Isaac Paredes, young starter Hayden Wesneski, and first-rounder Cam Smith) to acquire ahead of his final year of team control.

Tucker’s certainly validated that belief in him as an impact player during the early going this season. A career .276/.356/.520 hitter, he’s taken his game to an even higher level recently. Tucker emerged as an early-season MVP candidate last year before being limited to just 78 games by a fractured shin, but even in his last 250 games dating back to 2023, the 28-year-old is hitting .288/.387/.548 with a wRC+ of 157. That’s the fifth-highest figure among all hitters with at least 1,000 plate appearances during that time, trailing only Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, and former teammate Yordan Alvarez.

That lofty company, combined with the huge expectations created by $700MM+ deals for the top-rated free agent in back-to-back offseasons, created plenty of intrigue about where Guerrero’s contract could end up prior to his extension with the Jays. His $500MM deal falls short of that $700MM mark both Ohtani and Soto reached, although Ohtani’s deal includes massive amounts of deferred money that make it lower than Guerrero’s pact in terms of net present value. Questions remain, however, about how Tucker’s own eventual deal will compare to those names. Notably, Tucker doesn’t have the sort of standout carrying tool that other top stars have. He’s not a threat to hit 60 homers like Judge, lacks Soto’s otherworldly strike zone recognition, and certainly isn’t the sort of once-in-a-century athlete Ohtani has proved himself to be.

With all that being said, however, Tucker gets to that elite tier of production by being well above average at just about everything. Among hitters with at least 1000 plate appearances over the past three seasons, Tucker’s barrel rate (11.7%) is top-30 in the majors, and his isolated slugging percentage is seventh best. He combined that excellent power with similarly excellent plate discipline; his 14.1% strikeout rate is the eleventh-lowest, while his 13.8% walk rate is fourth behind Judge, Soto, and Kyle Schwarber. While Soto remains the only player to walk more often than he strikes out, the 0.3% difference between Tucker’s strikeout and walk rates is the smallest among the rest of the league.

Tucker’s talent in the batters’ box is further augmented by strong work in other areas of the game. He’s a well-regarded defender in right field who won the AL’s Gold Glove award at the position in 2019, and while he’s not shown an ability to play a premium position like center field, it seems unlikely that he’ll need to make a move down the defensive spectrum to DH or first base any time soon. He’s also proved to be a solid contributor on the bases. Despite middling foot speed, Tucker has managed to log 91 steals in 102 attempts since the start of the 2020 season. That’s good for a phenomenal 89.2% success rate, and includes 25- and 30-steal efforts during the 2022 and ’23 campaigns. Tucker was well on his way to another 20+ steal season in 2024 before being sidelined by injury, and with three bags swiped in just 15 games this year it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him steal more than his fair share of extra bases this season as well.

Given Tucker’s all-around impressive skill set, it’s not hard to see why teams will be clamoring to bring him into the fold this winter. There’s even a fairly strong argument to be made that Tucker is a more valuable player than Guerrero, given that their career numbers are relatively similar at the dish and Tucker is a far more valuable player in the field and on the basepaths. With that being said, Tucker’s age could hold him back somewhat relative to the deals landed by Soto and Guerrero. Soto hit free agency ahead of his age-26 season, while Guerrero is currently in the midst of his own age-26 campaign. Tucker, who turned 28 in January, is two years older than Guerrero and will be marketing himself three years older than Soto was this past offseason.

It’s possible that could keep him below that half-billion dollar threshold that only Guerrero and Soto have managed to reach by measure of net present value, but he could still be in for a massive payday. After all, Judge landed $360MM over nine years in free agency when marketing his age-31 season, while Ohtani was roughly the same age as Tucker when he landed his contract, which has a net present value of just under $461MM for luxury tax purposes. Marquee Sports Network’s Lance Brozdowski reported on his Cubs Daily Podcast earlier this week that a person from Tucker’s agency, Excel Sports Management, suggested an estimate of $475MM over ten years for Tucker’s eventual contract. That figure obviously comes with caveats aplenty given that the source is Tucker’s own agency and he’s just 15 games into his platform season, but that number would top both Judge and Ohtani’s contracts in terms of NPV.

How do MLBTR readers believe Tucker’s contract situation will play out? Will he be able to crack the $500MM threshold that only Soto and Guerrero have crossed so far? Have your say in the poll below:

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