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Poll: Who Will Win The NL West?

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With Opening Day just over the horizon, teams all around the league are gearing up for another pennant chase in hopes of being crowned this year’s World Series champion. Of course, there’s still another seven months to go before someone raises the Commissioner’s Trophy. And until the playoffs begin, teams will be focused on a smaller goal: winning their division. We’ll be conducting a series of polls to gauge who MLBTR readers believe is the favorite in each division, and that series begins today with the NL West. Teams are listed in order of their 2024 record.

Los Angeles Dodgers (98-64)

The Dodgers have already notched two wins over the Cubs in the Tokyo Series for 2025, and they did so coming off a season where they finished the year with the best record in baseball and went on to win the World Series over the Yankees in five games. The club’s core of MVP-caliber talent remains in place with Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman all set to once again anchor the lineup this year. Meanwhile, a pitching staff that already included Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Clayton Kershaw has been bulked out further not just by Ohtani’s impending return to the mound but also the additions of Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki.

In the bullpen, the team’s solid late-inning mix of Blake Treinen, Alex Vesia, Michael Kopech, and Evan Phillips got a pair of major additions in the form of Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates, while the lineup is largely unchanged from last season with Hyeseong Kim set to replace Gavin Lux eventually and Michael Conforto stepping into the outfield in place of Jason Heyward. There are few clear places to nitpick a team that appears to be a clear juggernaut on paper, although the combination of Betts and Max Muncy on the left side of the infield figures to be below average defensively and the club’s strategy of stacking talented, oft-injured rotation arms always runs the risk of health problems.

San Diego Padres (93-69)

While many view besting the Dodgers as a mountain that’s near impossible to climb, it’s worth remembering that San Diego came within just one game of toppling them during the NLDS back in October. The Padres were restricted in their offseason activities by financial limitations, but the core of the 2024 club remains largely in place with Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill, and Fernando Tatis Jr. poised to anchor the lineup, Xander Bogaerts and Luis Arraez providing support and a front-of-the-rotation duo of Dylan Cease and Michael King who will be motivated to build on their excellent 2024 campaigns ahead of free agency this winter.

That’s not to say the club made no additions this winter, of course. The Padres waited out the market to sign talented right-hander Nick Pivetta to anchor the middle of their rotation alongside Yu Darvish, allowing them to make a splash on a tight budget. Other additions were less flashy, but could still prove valuable. While a supporting cast of Jason Heyward, Connor Joe, Jose Iglesias, and Yuli Gurriel may not look like much on paper, no one expected Jurickson Profar, David Peralta, and Donovan Solano to be as impactful for the club as they were last year. If the Padres are to win an NL West that got even more loaded this winter, they’ll need to hit on those dice rolls once again.

Arizona Diamondbacks (89-73)

While the Diamondbacks missed the playoffs by a hair in 2024 when they finished tied with the Mets and Braves for the final two NL Wild Card spots, the 2023 NL champions put together an excellent team in 2024. The Diamondbacks led the majors in runs scored last year, and many core pieces like Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll are back for more this year alongside supporting veterans Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Eugenio Suarez. The losses of Christian Walker and Joc Pederson will certainly sting, but Josh Naylor should help to make up for some of that lost production and it wouldn’t be a shock to see longtime top prospect Jordan Lawlar break into the majors this year, either.

The pitching side of things is where Arizona figures to improve the most over last year. Zac Gallen is now complemented at the top of the Diamondbacks rotation by a co-ace in Corbin Burnes, and Merrill Kelly and Eduardo Rodriguez should be able to offer far steadier mid-rotation production than they did in injury-marred 2024 campaigns. The club also enjoys a deep group of back-of-the-rotation options, with Brandon Pfaadt set to get the first crack at starting. Should injuries once again complicate matters, Ryne Nelson is one of the best sixth starters in the league and there’s nowhere for Jordan Montgomery to go but up after last year’s disastrous campaign.

San Francisco Giants (80-82)

The Giants enjoyed a reasonably strong offseason during Buster Posey’s first winter at the helm, but after finishing with a middling record for the third consecutive season it would take a lot of things going right for the club to make significant gains in the standings. The addition of a star-caliber shortstop in Willy Adames alongside Matt Chapman should make for one of the stronger left sides of the infield in the sport this year, but it would take a renaissance from Justin Verlander to even match Blake Snell’s production down the stretch last year. Meanwhile, the club has no established talent at DH and faces questions about the productivity of its outfield after Jung Hoo Lee’s debut season was sidetracked by injuries.

That’s not to say 2025 is a season without hope for fans in San Francisco, however. Verlander and Robbie Ray are both former Cy Young winners, and vintage performances from the duo in conjunction with Logan Webb’s ever-steady production could make an impressive front-end of the rotation. Young players like Heliot Ramos, Tyler Fitzgerald, and Patrick Bailey could build on solid 2024 campaigns and take further steps forward. And if they do so while the rotation plays up to its potential, it’s possible to see the Giants surprising this year.

Colorado Rockies (61-101)

While the division’s other four teams all have reasonable paths to contention this year, the Rockies would need to move heaven and earth just to get to .500 after a season where they finished 37 games back in the NL West and made no significant additions during the offseason. The club has a few potentially exciting pieces in place, with center fielder Brenton Doyle and shortstop Ezequiel Tovar creating an exciting up-the-middle duo, but the supporting cast leaves much to be desired.

The club traded its highest-ceiling offensive player, left fielder Nolan Jones, for utility man Tyler Freeman over the weekend. And exciting top prospects like Zac Veen and Chase Dollander remain in the minor leagues. Even a return to form from $182MM man Kris Bryant wouldn’t be enough to return playoff baseball to Colorado this year unless it was paired with strong performances from those aforementioned prospects in addition to veteran arms like German Marquez and Kyle Freeland turning back the clock to 2018.

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With four of the division’s five teams making an effort to get back to the playoffs this year, which club do you expect to come out on top? Will the Dodgers remain the league’s dominant force, or will they be overcome by a big season from one of their rivals like San Diego or Arizona? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: The Cardinals’ Center Field Battle

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As the Cardinals look to embrace a youth movement in John Mozeliak’s final year at the helm of the club, their inability to trade Nolan Arenado this winter has caused some complications. With Arenado ticketed for everyday playing time at third base, St. Louis now has five players for three spots in the lineup: second base, left field, and center field. While none of those five players can play all three of those positions, the versatility of Brendan Donovan to play either second base or left field connects the decisions made in the outfield to those at the keystone.

Donovan and Lars Nootbaar are both more or less guaranteed everyday playing time with the Cardinals, and one of them figures to be the club’s starting left fielder. Should Donovan start in left field, it would push Nootbaar to center, and that would open up second base for Nolan Gorman, who would have taken over for Arenado if the veteran were traded. Meanwhile, starting Nootbaar in left would push Donovan back onto the infield, and in doing so would open up center field for one of Michael Siani or Victor Scott II.

Scott and Siani are very similar players. Siani is a little over a year older than Scott, headed into his age-25 season while Scott has only just turned 24, and the pair combined for nearly 85% of the club’s innings in center field last year. Both are left-handed hitters who have struggled to hit in the majors so far, but are very well-regarded for their speed and defense nonetheless.

Of the two, Siani has the edge in terms of big league experience. After brief stints in the majors with the Reds and Cardinals in 2022 and ’23, Siani enjoyed his first extended taste of big league action last year when he appeared in 124 games for St. Louis and stepped up to the plate 334 times. He hit a paltry .228/.285/.285 in that time, good for a 64 wRC+ that was 36% worse than the league average hitter and the eighth-lowest slash line among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances. With that being said, Siani went an excellent 20-for-23 on the basepaths while posting +16 Outs Above Average, a 99th percentile figure that placed him behind only Nationals defensive standout Jacob Young among outfielders.

Unfortunately, there’s little in Siani’s profile that suggests a significantly higher offensive ceiling than he demonstrated in 2024. His actual batting average and slugging percentage both outstripped his expected numbers in those categories by more than 20 points last year, and his .322 BABIP, while not necessarily unsustainable due to his excellent speed, is already at the higher end of the expected range for a regular player. That limited offensive ceiling could open the door for Scott, a consensus top-100 prospect entering last season who has previously shown flashes of offensive potential in the minor leagues. Scott’s .179/.219/.283 (40 wRC+) slash line in 53 games for the Cardinals last year was actually worse than that of Siani, though his peripheral and expected numbers suggest the pair’s underlying performance was roughly the same.

Most notably, Scott flashed more power potential than Siani with a 5.7% barrel rate during his time in the majors last year that more than doubled Siani’s 2.3% figure. Scott also had 35 hard-hit batted balls to Siani’s 43 despite being afforded less than half of the playing time. All of that, as well as Scott’s excellent .323/.373/.450 slash line at the Double-A level in 2023, suggests that Scott has a higher offensive ceiling than Siani and could be a more impactful all-around player if given the opportunity. Scott is also a potential game changer on the basepaths, having stolen an unbelievable 94 bases between High-A and Double-A in 2023 and having followed that up with 35 steals between Triple-A and the majors last year.

Scott grades out extremely well in center field on scouting reports and posted solid (+3 OAA) numbers in defensive metrics with relatively minimal playing time last year, but he would need improve those numbers substantially to offer the sort of league-leading defense Siani has shown himself to be capable of. What’s more, Scott’s bat took a concerning step backwards even at Triple-A last year, when he slashed just .210/.294/.303 in 82 games. That lackluster showing could suggest that Scott simply isn’t ready for another jump to the major leagues, particularly given that the gap between MLB and Triple-A is even bigger than that between the Triple- and Double-A levels.

Of course, another viable option would be simply placing Nootbaar in center field. An above-average big league hitter in each of his four MLB seasons so far, Nootbaar is obviously the most talented hitter of the bunch but will be in the lineup in some capacity regardless of whether he’s playing center field or not. Playing Nootbaar in center, then, would actually open up playing time for Gorman. The club’s first-rounder back in 2018, Gorman was a league average bat during his rookie season in 2022 before taking a big step forward the following year, slashing .236/.328/.478 with 27 homers and a 118 wRC+ in 119 games that year. Unfortunately, things fell apart for Gorman last year as he struck out at a worrisome 37.9% clip and watched his slash line plummet to a lackluster .203/.271/.400 (87 wRC+).

Even last year’s subpar offensive output is likely better than what can be expected from either Siani or Scott this year, but to get Gorman’s bat into the lineup the Cards would have to sacrifice on defense. Nootbaar has logged 109 games in center field over the course of his career, with a rather pedestrian +1 OAA during that relatively sporadic playing time. While it’s possible that Nootbaar’s numbers could tick up with more regular playing time at the position, it’s clear he lacks the impactful defense ability of Siani or Scott. The club’s baserunning would suffer if Gorman replaced Siani or Scott in the lineup as well, as Gorman has never swiped more than seven bags in a season and has been a net negative on the basepaths throughout his career according to FanGraphs’ BsR metric.

How should the Cardinals handle their center field conundrum? Should they stick with Siani’s elite glove despite his lackluster offense? Pass the baton to Scott despite questions about his offensive ceiling thanks to his elite speed and baserunning abilities? Or should they slide Nootbaar over to center despite pedestrian defense in order to maximize their lineup’s potential by making room for Gorman? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: The Red Sox Second Base Battle

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Entering Spring Training, there was plenty of buzz around the future of the second base position in Boston. However, that buzz mostly surrounded the wild card that was the club’s recent addition of Alex Bregman, a third baseman by trade but one who had expressed a willingness to move to second base. That led to plenty of belief that Bregman could slide over to the keystone in deference to incumbent third baseman Rafael Devers, but all indications point towards the club shifting Devers to DH with Opening Day just over a week away.

That leaves a relatively wide-open battle for the second base job this spring. For most of camp, that’s appeared to be a battle between incumbent David Hamilton, top prospect Kristian Campbell, and Vaughn Grissom. While Grissom was the prize of the Chris Sale trade and intended to be the club’s starting second baseman last year, he struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness throughout the year as he got into just 31 big league games and hit a paltry .190/.246/.219 in that time. After Grissom struggled once again in Spring Training this year, hitting just .176/.300/.235 across 13 games, it was hardly a surprise when his bid for the starting second base job came to a close when the Red Sox optioned him to Triple-A yesterday.

Grissom’s exit from the race to start at the keystone in Boston this year didn’t fully narrow the field, however, as another candidate has entered the fray: top infield prospect Marcelo Mayer. While Mayer entered camp seemingly unlikely to earn a spot on the Opening Day roster given the fact that he has yet to play at the Triple-A level and missed much of last year with an injury, the 22-year-old is a consensus top-20 prospect in the sport for a reason and has turned heads this spring with a phenomenal .357/.438/.536 slash line in 15 spring games. That strong work, in conjunction with Mayer’s .307/.370/.480 slash line in 77 Double-A games last year, paint a clear picture of a player who’s ready for a new challenge.

It’s become easier to imagine that challenge being in the majors, though it would certainly be defensible for the club to instead simply promote him to Triple-A and wait for him to prove himself at the position as well. After all, Mayer has spent his entire career at shortstop aside from single-game cameos at third base in each of the past two seasons. He’d not played second base before until this spring and still has only a handful of innings at the position as things stand. While it’s not unheard of for talented players to make the jump from Double-A to the majors and hold their own or even excel offensively, doing that while also learning a new position would be a big ask for any player.

That could make one of the club’s other options more attractive. If the club wants to give Mayer more time to develop while still injecting its Opening Day lineup with some youthful upside, Campbell would be a viable alternative. The 22-year-old is a consensus top-ten prospect in the sport, even more highly rated than Mayer by most services, after a phenomenal year where he catapulted himself from High-A all the way to Triple-A across just 115 games and crushed the ball at every level along the way. After a 19-game stint at Worcester last year where he hit an impressive .286/.412/.486, Campbell entered camp with a clear path to making the club’s Opening Day roster. That path has been complicated, however, by a lackluster spring where he’s hit just .158/.289/.211 in 16 games.

Those offensive struggles, in conjunction with defense at second base that grades out as more decent than spectacular, have created questions as to whether the Red Sox would be better served with more time at Triple-A, serving as depth for the club both at second base but also in the outfield, where he spent 25 games last year in an effort to create more positional versatility. On the other hand, however, Campbell is clearly a strong talent who has proven he can hit at the Triple-A level. He’s also the only right-handed bat in the mix for the everyday second base job with Romy Gonzalez ticketed for a bench role. That’s a factor worth considering given the heavily left-handed makeup for a Red Sox lineup that figures to rely on Devers, Jarren Duran, Triston Casas, Masataka Yoshida, and Wilyer Abreu in significant roles throughout the year, to say nothing of top prospect Roman Anthony. Campbell joining Bregman and Trevor Story as a right-handed hitter who can offer some pop and keep opposing southpaws honest could help balance the lineup in a way that neither Mayer nor Hamilton can offer.

Speaking of Hamilton, he would be a viable alternative to running with a youngster at second base in the event that the club prefers more stable production to begin the season. The 27-year-old doesn’t offer much upside with the bat, having posted a .248/.303/.395 slash line in 98 games last year that probably isn’t too far from his realistic ceiling, but his defense and baserunning are both top-notch and allowed him to put up 2.6 bWAR/1.7 fWAR in just 317 trips to the plate across 98 games last year. Hamilton would also be much easier to justify platooning with Gonzalez than Mayer, who will likely need regular playing time to maximize his development. That could help to alleviate concerns about carrying another left-handed hitting regular for Red Sox brass this year.

As is the case with all top prospects nearing their big league debuts, service time is another consideration. It’s possible that the Red Sox could capture a seventh year of team control over either Campbell or Mayer by holding them down in the minors for at least the first few weeks of the season. And with stars this valuable. that’s surely a tempting possibility. With that being said, the current CBA’s prospect promotion incentive makes the decision to leave a player in the minors to try and get an extra year of service a more complicated one than it was in the days of Kris Bryant and George Springer. If either Campbell or Mayer were to finish within the top two of AL Rookie of the Year voting this year, they would be awarded a full season of service time regardless of how many days they actually spent in the majors.

What’s more, if either player earned a full year of MLB service naturally and either won Rookie of the Year this year or was a finalist in AL MVP voting during his pre-arbitration years, the Red Sox would earn an additional draft pick in the following year’s draft. Given that, if the Red Sox believe there’s a clear path for either youngster to succeed enough that they finish within the top two for Rookie of the Year this season, they might be incentivized to simply put that player on the roster to begin the year in hopes of recouping a draft pick.

Who would you start at second base on Opening Day if you were in Boston’s position? Does Campbell’s Triple-A experience or Mayer’s strong camp hold more weight in your mind? Or perhaps Hamilton is the safest bet that offers the club an opportunity to keep both Mayer and Campbell in the fold for longer? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: The Rockies’ Outfield Mix

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Headed into 2025, there isn’t a ton for Rockies fans to look forward to this year. The club has just a 0.1% chance of making the postseason this year according to Fangraphs, which is tied with the White Sox for the lowest in baseball. Projected for a 65-97 record this season, the Rockies’ path back to relevance appears long and arduous given the stronger clubs ahead of them in the NL West.

Bleak as things may seem in Colorado, however, the Rockies do have some interesting young players worth dreaming on. Michael Toglia crushed 25 homers in his first full season as a big leaguer last year and figures to serve as the club’s everyday first baseman this year. Ezequiel Tovar won a Gold Glove award last year, led the NL in doubles, and is in town long-term after signing an extension that keeps him under team control for the next seven seasons. Brenton Doyle is among the most talented center field defenders in the sport and enjoyed an above-average offensive season last year, even after adjusting for the offensive environment at Coors Field.

That collection of interesting young hitters could receive a new addition this year, as the retirement of Charlie Blackmon has opened up regular playing time at DH for Kris Bryant. Things are looking rather unsettled for the club in the outfield this year, with no certainty in the corners even as Doyle is locked in as the club’s regular center fielder and Sam Hilliard appears poised to retain his role as the club’s fourth outfielder after performing well in that role last year. Despite that lack of certainty, there’s a number of interesting options available to handle regular playing time.

26-year-old Nolan Jones is the overwhelming favorite to serve as the club’s regular left fielder, even after an injury-marred 2024 campaign where he was limited to just 79 games and hit a lackluster .227/.321/.320 in the games where he was healthy enough to take the field. That’s because Jones is just one season removed from a stellar 2023 campaign where he posted a .297/.389/.542 slash line in a year where he put together a 20/20 season. That proven upside should be enough to get him the first crack at everyday reps in left field, leaving the main roster battle to be held in right.

2022 first-rounder Jordan Beck entered Spring Training as the favorite for the right field job. Beck, 24 next month, struggled mightily in 55 games for the Rockies last year with a paltry .188/.245/.276 slash line. A broken bone in his left hand sidelined him for much of the summer, and the lingering effects of that injury may have impacted his return to action over the season’s final six weeks, when he struck out in 34% of his trips to the plate and hit just .187/.282/.242. He’s also got plenty of pedigree as a former top-100 prospect who raked at every stop on his way through the minor leagues, suggesting the underlying talent for a quality regular is there. However, he’s looked out of sorts this spring with strikeouts in more than 30% of his plate appearances, and his numbers prior to last year’s injury were actually even weaker than his performance down the stretch.

It wouldn’t be a surprise if those deep struggles opened the door for another player to squeeze their way into the right field job, and two players in particular have made the most of the opportunity. One is Sean Bouchard, who at 28 years old is the oldest of the corner outfield options mentioned here. Bouchard made his debut for Colorado back in 2022 and has appeared in each of the past three seasons, but has never received regular playing time in the majors to this point in his career. He didn’t hit much last year, but his overall body of work at the big league level is fairly impressive with a .251/.368/.443 (115 wRC+) slash line in 248 trips to the plate across the past three years. Those solid numbers come with a slightly inflated .339 BABIP, however, and his 29% strikeout rate in the majors offers some cause for concern. On the other hand, Bouchard has done nothing but rake at both the Triple-A level throughout his career (with a career 1.012 OPS at the level) and in Spring Training this year, where he’s slashed .378/.395/.757 in 15 games.

Perhaps the most intriguing option available to the Rockies is calling up former top prospect Zac Veen. Veen, 23, is the youngest of the club’s options and was considered a top-30 prospect in the sport as recently as last year. However, he’s suffered through back-to-back injury marred campaigns with 111 games played across all levels of the minors since the start of the 2023 season. He hit a solid .258/.346/.459 across all levels of the minors when healthy last year and ultimately reached Triple-A, but his struggles in 21 games at the level last year could suggest he’s not quite ready for the big leagues. On the other hand, Veen has joined Bouchard in putting on an offensive clinic this spring, with a .317/.304/.610 slash line in 20 spring games.

As presently constructed, the Rockies appear to have enough roster spots available to carry only three of these four corner bats. Jones is essentially guaranteed a roster spot given that he’s out of options, but each of Bouchard, Veen, and Beck all have options remaining. Given the prospect pedigree and high ceilings both Beck and Veen seemingly have to offer, it wouldn’t make much sense to keep either player on the roster in a pure bench role. The right-handed Beck and left-handed Veen could certainly work out some sort of timeshare that gets both the at-bats they need to develop, though it’s also possible the club could opt to give either player regular reps in the minor leagues while rostering Bouchard. Bouchard’s right-handed bat could also provide additional value off the bench if the lefty-swinging Jones, who hit just .205/.283/.265 against southpaws last year, needs a platoon partner to maximize his own development.

Who would you send to the minors to open the season if you were in Colorado’s shoes? Would you give Veen more time to develop in the minors despite his strong spring and exciting upside? Would Beck’s struggles last year bleeding over into Spring Training be enough to turn you away from including him on the roster to open the season? Or perhaps you’d include both youngsters and send Bouchard to the minors as depth despite his relative success in the majors? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Padres’ Rotation Battle

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Shortly after the 2024 regular season concluded, the Padres were hit with a brutal blow when Joe Musgrove underwent Tommy John surgery, wiping out his 2025 campaign before the offseason even began. That left the Padres with major question marks at the back of their rotation behind Dylan Cease, Michael King, and Yu Darvish. While the late-winter addition of Nick Pivetta into the fold helped stabilize things, that still left one spot open in the club’s rotation headed into Spring Training. Darvish is now battling elbow inflammation himself, though the Padres haven’t ruled him out for the beginning of the season.

Knuckleballer Matt Waldron appeared to be the favorite for the final rotation job after he made 26 solid starts for the Padres last year, but he’s out of commission due to an oblique injury and expected to begin the season on the injured list. With Waldron out of the mix for the Opening Day rotation, that leaves left-hander Kyle Hart as well as righties Randy Vasquez and Stephen Kolek in the mix for the club’s fifth starter spot. Hart, 32, was brought into the organization last month on a one-year deal worth $1.5MM guaranteed. The southpaw has just 11 MLB innings under his belt, where he got blown up to the tune of a 15.55 ERA with the Red Sox during the 2020 season. After toiling in the minor leagues for years in an attempt to get back to the majors, Hart tried his hand in the Korea Baseball Organization last year.

The results were extremely impressive. Hart’s first and only year overseas saw him pitch to a sterling 2.69 ERA in 157 innings of work across 26 starts. He struck out an excellent 28.8% of his opponents while maintaining a strong 6.0% walk rate. That dominant work in Korea was somewhat reminiscent of the success right-hander Erick Fedde found in KBO play during the 2023 season, when he pitched to a 2.00 ERA in 180 1/3 innings and struck out 29.5% of his opponents. Hart’s numbers don’t quite match up with those of Fedde, but given Fedde’s excellent 2024 season where he posted a 3.30 ERA in 31 starts for the White Sox and Cardinals, even a significant step back from Fedde’s major league production would still make Hart a solid starting option in the majors.

It might seem reasonable, then, to assume that Hart is the favorite for the job. Things may not be that simple, however, as Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune wrote over the weekend that Hart may be falling out of the race for the fifth starter job due to an illness that has limited him to just two appearances this spring. Acee noted that the Padres have been impressed by what they’ve seen from him so far, but much like Waldron, it’s possible that he simply won’t have time to build up enough to be the club’s fifth starter out of the gate this year. That could open the door for Vasquez or Kolek to jump in and take the job despite résumés that pale in comparison to Hart’s platform campaign.

Vasquez, 26, made 20 starts for the Padres last year. The results left something to be desired, as his 4.87 ERA and 4.70 FIP were both well below league average. With that being said, Vasquez improved throughout the 2024 campaign. After surrendering ten homers in his first nine starts last year, he settled into a rhythm in late June and posted a respectable 4.23 ERA with an even better 3.94 FIP in 55 1/3 innings of work over his final 11 starts. While Vasquez’s ceiling isn’t especially high, it’s not hard to imagine him being a perfectly viable fifth starter this year, particularly if his improved ability to keep the ball in the park throughout the second half last year proves to be sustainable.

Kolek, meanwhile, is something of a wild card in the mix. Drafted in the 11th round by the Dodgers back in 2018, the right-hander was traded to the Mariners in 2021 but did not make his big league debut until last year as a Rule 5 pick of the Padres. San Diego used him out of the bullpen, where he posted lackluster numbers despite strong peripherals. Kolek’s fantastic 55.9% ground ball rate and impressive 5.7% walk rate were overshadowed by a strikeout rate of just 18.5%, a massive .359 BABIP, and a lackluster 64.3% strand rate that left him with a 5.21 ERA despite a 3.57 FIP and a 3.41 SIERA.

Still, the right-hander showed enough that he not only stuck with the Padres all season, but club brass also decided to convert him back to a starting job despite him not pitching out of the rotation since 2022 at the Double-A level. His spring results have been impressive to this point, with a 1.00 ERA in 9 innings of work and five strikeouts against just one walk, but Kolek’s pedestrian results last year and lack of a track record as a starter in the majors or even at Triple-A could give San Diego pause about committing to him as a starter to open the season.

If Darvish avoids the injured list, who would you assign to the fifth spot in the Padres rotation to open the season? Would you give the nod to Hart despite his minimal work during Spring Training? Would you stick with the reliable Vasquez despite his relatively low ceiling? Or would you take a chance on a reliever conversion in Kolek? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Should The Blue Jays Have Offered Vladimir Guerrero Jr. $500MM?

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Active extension talks between the Blue Jays and superstar first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. came to an apparent halt last month. The beginning of Spring Training, which Guerrero set as a deadline for negotiations, came and went without a deal. But that hasn’t stopped those negotiations from being a major topic of discussion around baseball in the weeks since.

Some of that publicity has been created by Guerrero himself; while extension negotiations are often played relatively close to the vest by both players and their clubs, Guerrero has been unusually candid about the negotiations throughout the process. His public comments have ranged from acknowledging back in December that the Jays had extended him a $340MM offer to his recent interview with ESPN where he suggested his asking price clocked in below $600MM over at least 14 years.

Earlier this week, it was reported that Guerrero set his asking price at a net present value of $500MM in negotiations with Toronto, whether the deal was a straight $500MM contract with no deferrals or a higher sticker price including deferred money that took the net present value back down to $500MM. The Jays reportedly did offer Guerrero about $500MM, but with deferrals that knocked the net present value down to the $400-450MM range, so the two sides were about $50-100MM apart in terms of NPV.

It’s an interesting development, not only for the window it provides into Guerrero’s thinking with his final season prior to free agency just around the corner, but also because of how rare it is for a player’s asking price to be reported on so specifically. With reasonable confidence in the knowledge that Guerrero would have accepted a 14-year, $500MM contract offer from the Jays, the decision by Toronto not to offer Guerrero that deal is an especially interesting point of discussion.

It’s easy to see why Guerrero would feel comfortable asking for that sort of contract. The slugger is coming off a superb season at the plate for the Blue Jays last year where he slashed .323/.396/.544 with 30 homers, a strikeout rate of just 13.8%, and a wRC+ of 165. The performance was good for a sixth-place finish in the AL’s stacked MVP race last year, and in terms of overall production was more or less a perfect replica of his 2021 campaign where he posted a 166 wRC+ and finished second in AL MVP voting behind Shohei Ohtani. With two seasons of that caliber now under his belt, it’s impossible to argue against the fact that Guerrero is one of the league’s most explosive offensive talents.

That lofty ceiling with the bat is made all the more tantalizing by his youth; Guerrero will play next year at just 27 years old, one year older than Juan Soto is now. Soto stands as perhaps the best reason for Guerrero to feel emboldened to set his asking price at half a billion dollars. After all, the star outfielder’s combination of youth and offensive prowess allowed him to land a 15-year, $765MM deal with the Mets back in December. It’s the richest contract in the history of professional sports and completely shattered all contractual precedents. Unlike Shohei Ohtani’s own $700MM deal with the Dodgers, which has an estimated net present value of $461MM, Soto’s contract includes no deferred money.

In that context, Guerrero setting his asking price at approximately two-thirds of Soto’s deal is understandable. After all, neither player contributes much in the field or on the basepaths, and when Guerrero is at his best he’s easily the closest comparison to Soto in the game in terms of age and overall offensive ability. The Blue Jays themselves clearly saw Soto as a player worth splurging on, as they were a finalist for his services. Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reported back in December that the Jays’ offer to Soto clocked in under $700MM, but that shows that Toronto has the financial wherewithal to make a massive offer and a willingness to put pen to paper on such a deal for a player relatively similar to Guerrero. As mentioned earlier, they also made a substantial offer to Guerrero that went beyond $400MM in terms of NPV.

With that being said, the comparison isn’t without flaws. Guerrero is already more or less restricted to first base defensively, while Soto is capable of playing passable defense in the outfield corners and likely could theoretically move to first base in the future, as other corner outfielders like Bryce Harper have done in the past. More important than either his slightly more versatile defensive skill set or the fact that he hit free agency one year younger than Guerrero will, however, is the fact that Soto is simply in a class all his own as an offensive talent with a career wRC+ (158) in the same ballpark as Guerrero’s aforementioned peak seasons.

Setting Soto aside, there are valid reasons for concern when it comes to Guerrero. The slugger has shown a level of year-to-year volatility that could be difficult to stomach for a franchise cornerstone on what would be the second-largest contract in MLB history, and is just one year removed from a lackluster 2023 campaign where he posted a wRC+ of 118 with just 1.3 fWAR. One also doesn’t have to look very far to find first basemen who were comparable or even greater offensive talents than Guerrero at his age but saw their production take a nosedive in their early 30s. Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols stand out as the most obvious examples of the pitfalls that can come with offering even immense offensive talents franchise-altering contracts under the assumption they’ll remain productive into their mid-to-late 30s.

Another consideration that must be taken into account from Toronto’s perspective is the club’s own prospects of near-term success at the big league level. The Jays, as presently constructed, feature an aging roster with plenty of holes and question marks that figure to only grow in the coming seasons as veterans like Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios continue to age while pieces of the club’s core like Bo Bichette and Alejandro Kirk reach free agency. The club is coming off a fifth-place finish in the AL East last year and is projected by Fangraphs for a record of just 82-80, less than a full win ahead of the Rays for fourth place and behind the Yankees’ division leading projection of 86-76. If Toronto were to enter a rebuild in the near future after giving Guerrero a massive contract, they’d risk wasting the prime of their superstar’s career and returning to contention only when his best years are already behind him.

If you were in the Blue Jays’ shoes, would you have signed on the dotted line to keep Guerrero in the fold on a 14-year, $500MM contract? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Will The Braves Add A Catcher?

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At the outset of the offseason, the Braves made a surprising move to decline their club option on veteran catcher Travis d’Arnaud despite prior indications being that they’d planned to exercise the option. Things turned out just fine for d’Arnaud, who signed a two-year deal with the Angels shortly thereafter, but the decision came back to bite Atlanta when starting catcher Sean Murphy suffered a cracked rib that will keep him out of action through at least the middle of April.

When Murphy missed time due to an oblique issue last year, d’Arnaud was there to step in as a capable regular option. This year, they’ll have no such ready-made answer locked and loaded on the roster. That’s not to say the club has no internal options; youngster Drake Baldwin is a well-regarded prospect who already seemed likely to make his MLB debut at some point this year, and Chadwick Tromp was already in line to make the roster as the club’s backup catcher. Baldwin has raked this spring to the tune of a .368/.520/.474 slash line, and perhaps that’s enough to convince Atlanta brass to give him the reins for the start of the season while Murphy recovers.

However, it’s hardly a reliable solution to the issue. Baldwin has yet to take a major league at-bat, and he struggled offensively at the Double-A level just last year before turning his season around upon his promotion to Triple-A. And if Baldwin proves unprepared to handle the big leagues, Tromp isn’t a viable starting option. The soon to be 30-year-old backstop has just 59 games and 156 plate appearances under his belt over parts of five seasons in the majors. In that time, he’s hit just .232/.237/.397 with a wRC+ of 66. While it’s not impossible to imagine more regular playing time in the majors allowing Tromp to perform better, 47 catchers produced more offense that Tromp’s career numbers across at least 100 plate appearances in the majors last year.

The Braves do have a pair of non-roster invitees in camp who could step in, but neither inspires confidence. Sandy Leon didn’t play in the majors at all last year, last had even 100 plate appearances in a season back in 2021, and is a career .208/.276/.311 hitter. Fellow NRI Curt Casali has a somewhat stronger track record, having played at least 40 games in the majors every year since 2018 (excluding the 60-game 2020 season where he appeared in 31 games for the Reds), but hit just .194/.293/.250 for the Giants in 125 trips to the plate last year.

Given all of the uncertainty facing Atlanta, an external addition can’t be ruled out. It’s been reported that the club made an offer to Yasmani Grandal even prior to Murphy’s injury. While Grandal turned that deal down, it signals the club already had reservations about its catching depth and it’s at least possible that the sides could circle back to each other with Opening Day fast approaching and additional playing time having opened up for Grandal.

Other options on the free agent market are few and far between. James McCann and Yan Gomes remain unsigned, but other options could emerge in the coming days as veterans on minor league deals with other teams begin to get the opportunity to opt out and return to free agency.

Jorge Alfaro, Omar Narvaez, and Tucker Barnhart are among the veterans in camp with other clubs who could return to free agency if they don’t make their current club’s Opening Day roster. It’s also at least possible that a club with an excess of catching options on the 40-man roster like the Twins could either make one of their backstops available on waivers or via trade, though trades of particular note are quite rare at this stage of the calendar. While none of the options likely to be available are game changers, they could offer a higher floor than any of Atlanta’s current options and allow the club to avoid rushing Baldwin to the majors.

How do you think the Braves will approach the situation? Will they take Murphy’s injury as an opportunity to give Baldwin regular playing time and stand pat with their internal options, or will they instead look to upgrade over a potential tandem of Baldwin and Tromp by bringing in a more reliable veteran to help handle the pitching staff? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Should The Cubs Extend Pete Crow-Armstrong?

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The Cubs’ teardown of their last core that saw them part ways with Kyle Schwarber, Yu Darvish, Jon Lester, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, and Craig Kimbrel over the course of nine months. That slate of moves, to this point, has offered little in terms of major league production. There are some promising prospects from trades in that teardown, such as Owen Caissie (Darvish) and Kevin Alcantara (Rizzo) knocking on the door of the big leagues, but some of the pieces acquired in the trades of Darvish, Rizzo, Bryant, and Kimbrel have already departed the organization (e.g. Nick Madrigal, Alexander Canario).

So far, the primary exception is the trade that sent Baez (and right-hander Trevor Williams) to the Mets for center field prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong. The former first-round pick’s premium defense and speed gave him a high floor, and he continued to elevate his stock en route to billing as a consensus top-50 prospect in the sport.

In a league that’s seen an increasing number of young talents locked up long-term before reaching arbitration, Crow-Armstrong’s pedigree has long led Cubs fans to wonder if Chicago could follow in the footsteps of Arizona, Atlanta, and their brethren on the south side and lock up their young center fielder early in his career. It seems as though both the club’s front office and Crow-Armstrong himself could consider such an arrangement. The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma wrote last week that the front office “would be open” to bringing an offer to Crow-Armstrong. For his part, the youngster told Sharma he’s “always open to that conversation” as well.

Both the highs and the lows of Crow-Armstrong’s profile were on full display in 2024. He hit just .237/.286/.384 (87 wRC+) in 410 trips to the plate across 123 games… and his 2.7 fWAR in center field was still tied with Jacob Young of the Nationals for the eighth-highest figure of any player at the position last year thanks to his top-flight defensive and baserunning abilities. Crow-Armstrong went an excellent 27-for-30 on the basepaths, including 22 straight steals without being caught. In the field, his +14 Outs Above Average and +11 Defensive Runs Saved were the fifth- and seventh-best figures among outfielders, while his +16 Fielding Run Value was surpassed among fielders at all positions by only Giants catcher Patrick Bailey. Those defensive accolades become even more impressive when considering that Crow-Armstrong played just 112 games in center field.

Impressive as his rookie season was in many ways, it’s undeniable that Crow-Armstrong’s bat left something to be desired. Among 31 center fielders to get at least 400 plate appearances last year, his aforementioned 87 wRC+ ranks just 20th and puts him well behind the production of similarly gifted center fielders like Daulton Varsho, Michael Harris II, and Brenton Doyle. If the Cubs believe Crow-Armstrong will remain a below-average hitter, it’d be difficult to justify extending him when he’s already under team control through his age-28 season.

There were some signs of positive growth throughout the year, however. From July onward, Crow-Armstrong slashed .260/.309/.442 with a wRC+ of 108. His strikeout (21.6%) and walk (5.6%) rates were both slightly improved in that time, but most of that offensive boost came from a power outburst. Crow-Armstrong entered July with just one home run but crushed nine more over his final 72 games. While Crow-Armstrong’s .085 ISO through the end of June would put him in line with Andres Gimenez and Luis Arraez, his .185 ISO from July onward was more in line with hitters like Jackson Chourio, William Contreras, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. The increased power is reflected in more advanced metrics, as well. Crow-Armstrong’s barrel rate (4.3%) and hard-hit rate (29.8%) were both lackluster early in the season but from July onward increased to 8.9% and 40.3%, respectively.

Perhaps Harris, who signed an eight-year, $72MM extension with the Braves back in 2022, could be the most useful comp for Crow-Armstrong given his strong work in center field and up-and-down offensive production throughout his career to this point. Harris was in the midst of a dominant rookie season where he slashed .297/.339/.514 (137 wRC+) at the time of his deal with Atlanta and was also a year younger than Crow-Armstrong is now, but lacked his pedigree as a former first-round pick and top-20 prospect while also providing far less defensive value than Crow-Armstrong does.

Lawrence Butler just signed a seven-year, $65.5MM extension but did so with more than a year of service. Glove-first position players with some offensive ceiling who signed long-term deals in recent years include Ke’Bryan Hayes (eight years, $70MM) and Ezequiel Tovar (seven years, $63.5MM). Most of those deals were signed when the player had five remaining years of club control, however. Crow-Armstrong has six.

If you were in the Cubs’ shoes, would you try to lock up Crow-Armstrong long-term despite his lack of consistent offensive track record? Or would you wait to see how he develops in 2025 and beyond, even at the risk that he substantially boosts his earning power with a breakout campaign? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: The Yankees’ Priorities

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It’s been a tough spring for the Yankees on the injury front. The club has faced a number of noteworthy injuries, with the latest blow being the loss of veteran ace Gerrit Cole to Tommy John surgery. He’ll miss the entire 2025 season, while rotation-mate Luis Gil is set to miss a couple of months after suffering a lat strain. The lineup has been impacted as well, with slugger Giancarlo Stanton poised to miss significant time due to elbow issues while likely starting third baseman DJ LeMahieu has been sidelined by a calf strain.

Each of those injuries have prompted varying levels of speculations that the club could look to bring in some help, but the Yankees are seemingly facing fairly strict budget limits. RosterResource projects them for a $285MM payroll. The Yanks have shown little interest in adding payroll, and their projected $305MM competitive balance tax number is already above the $301MM top tax threshold. It would be fairly difficult to make lineup and rotation additions with limited budget space and a limited supply available to them. General manager Brian Cashman downplayed the possibility of the Yankees making a notable addition, citing the current tax situation as an obstacle.

Perhaps the most obvious choice for an upgrade would be the starting rotation. The Yankees are already down at least one starter for the entire 2025 season, and while Marcus Stroman can step into the rotation as a #5 starter relatively seamlessly, the depth beyond him gets shakier. Non-roster invitee Carlos Carrasco has an ugly 6.18 ERA over his past two seasons, while prospect Will Warren struggled to a 10.32 ERA in his big league debut last year with an ERA near 6.00 at Triple-A. A steadier depth arm like Lance Lynn or Kyle Gibson would make plenty of sense for a rotation that has multiple pitchers with notable injury histories.

The Yankees do have plenty of high-end talent in the rotation that could help to make up for the lack of depth. Max Fried is a legitimate No. 1 starter in his own right. Carlos Rodon is just two seasons removed from earning Cy Young votes. Clarke Schmidt posted a sterling 2.85 ERA in 16 starts last year. With the reigning AL Rookie of the Year set to join the rotation at some point this year, perhaps the Yankees’ needs are more acute in the lineup.

The idea of filling Stanton’s spot in the lineup is made more intriguing by the presence of a comparable veteran lingering in free agenct. J.D. Martinez remains on the market, and the two sluggers have produced nearly identical offensive value over the past five years: Stanton has slashed .231/.313/.473 with a 117 wRC+, while Martinez has hit .263/.330/.477 with a wRC+ of 118. Even with Martinez coming off a relative down season and a particularly tough second half with the Mets last year, it’s easy to see why having Martinez fill in for Stanton could be very appealing. The Yankees have had at least “some contact” with Martinez since Stanton was sidelined.

Then again, it’s fair to argue that Stanton is the easiest of the injured Yankees to replace in-house. Ben Rice has impressed during Spring Training and was already in the conversation for the backup catcher job. He could be tabbed as a potential DH option against right-handed hitters. Another solution would be giving regulars more rest by playing them at DH on occasion. If the club places Trent Grisham in center field for a day rather than Cody Bellinger, Stanton’s injury could let them give Bellinger a partial rest day at DH or have him back up any of Jasson Dominguez, Aaron Judge, or even Paul Goldschmidt so they could get a rest day of their own.

Third base has also been a question throughout camp. LeMahieu seems like he’ll have a shorter absence than Stanton, but even coming off a down season, his injury thins out the infield options. A mix of LeMahieu, Oswald Peraza, and Oswaldo Cabrera always looked fairly uninspiring. An MLBTR poll late last month suggested that a plurality of respondents believed the club’s primary third baseman would be someone not yet in the organization.

The third base market — and second base market, if Jazz Chisholm Jr. plays third instead — has largely been picked over, however. The Yankees were connected to infield options like Jose Iglesias and Jorge Polanco at points throughout the offseason and into Spring Training, but both veterans have since landed elsewhere. Nolan Arenado is known to be willing to waive his no-trade clause to join the Yankees, but it’s unlikely New York would be willing to take on his contract. Veteran Whit Merrifield remains available in free agency but isn’t a clear upgrade coming off a downturn in production at the plate. Perhaps upcoming opt-out opportunities for non-roster veterans and players made available on waivers due to roster crunches when Opening Day draws near will present a more viable solution.

How do MLBTR readers think the Yankees should address their injury-created holes? Will the club sign/acquire a starter to deepen its oft-injured rotation mix? Or could the Yankees instead turn to the lineup and either replace Stanton at DH or look for an upgrade to the infield? Have your say in the poll below:

Poll: Should The Phillies Extend Kyle Schwarber?

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Just over a week ago, reporting indicated that the Phillies and slugger Kyle Schwarber have engaged in “broad” conversations about an extension. That came not long after Schwarber expressed a desire to stick in Philadelphia beyond the life of his current contract, which expires at the end of the coming season. While no updates about the status of talks between the sides have been made public since then, it was just over a year ago that the Phillies agreed to an extension with pending free agent Zack Wheeler after reports of mutual interest between the sides gave way to radio silence as the sides hammered out a deal. Things have been similarly quiet regarding Schwarber’s teammate and fellow possible extension candidate J.T. Realmuto, as the sides reportedly have mutual interest in an extension as of last month with few details having emerged since then.

Getting back to Schwarber, it’s understandable why the 32-year-old would have interest in sticking in Philadelphia long-term. Aside from the team’s on-field success, which has seen them capture the NL pennant in 2022 and follow that up with 90- and 95-win campaigns the past two years, Schwarber himself has found an impressive level of consistency in Philadelphia. Across three seasons in a Phillies uniform, he’s slashed .221/.344/.488 with a wRC+ of 128 while never posting a figure below 120. That’s not only a substantial improvement over his career 119 wRC+ prior to arriving in Philly, but the results are also far more consistent on a year-to-year basis: his wRC+ figures prior to joining the Phillies ranged from as low as 91 in 2020 to as high as 146 in 2021.

Aside from the success both Schwarber and the team have enjoyed over the past three seasons, Schwarber may be hoping that avoiding the open market could afford him longer-term stability. The veteran has always been a lackluster defender, and in 2024 he spent virtually the entire campaign at DH. There’s been talk of Schwarber getting more reps in the outfield (or perhaps even at first base) this year, but the market has proved harsh in recent years for players like Schwarber regardless of whether he’s viewed as a bat-first corner option or a pure DH. Veteran DH J.D. Martinez resorted to taking one-year deals with the Dodgers and Mets during both the 2022-23 and ’23-24 offseasons, and he remains unsigned in March for the second consecutive year. Other defensively limited players like Pete Alonso and Anthony Santander ended up with contracts that fell below expectations this winter, while Schwarber’s longtime teammate Anthony Rizzo has seemingly struggled to get any sort of tempting offer this winter.

That’s not to say Schwarber is necessarily doomed to the same fate of underwhelming offers on the open market, of course. Teams are almost always willing to pay for truly elite talent in free agency, and Schwarber’s 131 wRC+ over the past four seasons is good for 25th in baseball over that timeframe. Those numbers are only slightly ahead of Alonso, who ranks 29th with a 129 wRC+, but it’s worth noting that Alonso faced questions about his future production after back-to-back down seasons. Meanwhile, Schwarber’s 2024 was nothing short of excellent as he slashed .248/.366/.485 with 38 homers and a career-high 3.4 fWAR. Another strong season from Schwarber in 2025 would surely line him up for a healthy contract in free agency, even if his age and defensive profile would likely inhibit his ability to land a lengthier contract.

There’s both pros and cons to the idea re-upping with Schwarber from the Phillies’ perspective as well. Schwarber offers rare left-handed power and exceptional consistency for a player with his skillset, but it’s not hard to see why an aging Phillies club might prefer to go with a younger alternative with strong defensive skills rather than continue to trot out a team that relies on both Schwarber and Nick Castellanos as regular fixtures of the lineup in 2026. Schwarber’s strikeout-heavy approach could be cause for concern in theory, but the club is more than capable of balancing that out with more contact-oriented hitters like Bryson Stott, Alec Bohm, and Trea Turner.

Perhaps the strongest argument for keeping Schwarber in the fold is the lack of clear upgrades available in free agency next winter. Unless the Phillies opt to splurge on an aggressive pursuit of either Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Kyle Tucker, they’ll be hard pressed to find a better hitter on the market next winter than the one they already have. Josh Naylor, Eugenio Suarez, and Cody Bellinger (if he opts out) are among the best hitters in the next tier of free agency next year, and while all three are solid players, none of them come close to offering the reliable offensive impact that Schwarber has given the Phillies over the past three years.

Is that impact enough to live with the high strikeout rates and lack of defensive value on what would likely be a two- or three-year extension? Have your say in the poll below:

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