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MLBTR Polls

MLBTR Poll: Francisco Lindor’s Future

By Connor Byrne | October 28, 2019 at 9:33pm CDT

We may be in for at least a couple of months of rumors centering on superstar Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor, who came up in trade speculation earlier Monday. The Dodgers are reportedly set to explore taking an offseason run at Lindor, already a four-time All-Star who won’t turn 26 until next month. Los Angeles is likely part of a large group of teams with interest in Lindor, as he’s clearly an elite, in-his-prime player who holds down one of baseball’s most valuable positions with aplomb.

In Cleveland’s shoes, it’s hardly a slam dunk the team will market Lindor. Since Lindor debuted in 2015, the Indians have come within striking distance of a World Series title, they’ve won three division championships and haven’t finished below .500. Even this season, which was a disappointment and non-playoff campaign for the club, it still won 93 games. Lindor was no small part of the Indians’ latest respectable performance, as he accounted for 4.4 fWAR, 34 home runs and 22 stolen bases despite missing the first couple weeks of the season with calf and ankle injuries. Factoring in his most recent output, the switch-hitting Lindor is tied with the venerable Jose Altuve for sixth among position players in fWAR (27.2).

Thanks to Lindor’s career-long brilliance, he’s set to earn a somewhat lofty salary in 2020 – his penultimate year of arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Lindor will rake in $16.7MM, which obviously isn’t the type of salary just any team could absorb. However, Lindor is spectacular enough to make it worthwhile, and with the possible exception of Didi Gregorius, the upcoming class of free-agent shortstops offers little in the way of answers. With that in mind, the Indians probably wouldn’t have difficulty landing appealing offers for Lindor.

Of course, whether the Indians are willing to seriously consider moving Lindor (or someone like right-hander Corey Kluber, another speculative trade candidate) is in question. There still appears to be enough talent on hand for the team to push for a playoff berth next season, after all. The Indians could easily retain Lindor and attempt to make another run at a World Series in 2020, or they could at least keep him until the July trade deadline and see where they stand at that point. That said, the trade value of Lindor is surely high now, and the small-market Indians appear highly unlikely to extend him before he’s eligible to reach free agency. Perhaps the upcoming winter is the right time to aggressively market Lindor, then. How do you expect it to pan out?

(Poll link for app users)

Will the Indians trade Lindor this offseason?
Yes 51.89% (4,961 votes)
No 48.11% (4,600 votes)
Total Votes: 9,561
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Cleveland Guardians MLBTR Polls Francisco Lindor

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MLBTR Poll: Record Money For Gerrit Cole?

By Connor Byrne | October 22, 2019 at 6:39pm CDT

Astros right-hander Gerrit Cole is just moments away from taking the ball against the Nationals in Game 1 of the teams’ World Series matchup. It’s a well-deserved honor for Cole, who has perhaps been the premier pitcher in baseball this season. The 29-year-old logged a sterling 2.50 ERA/2.64 FIP with a ridiculous 13.82 K/9 against 2.03 BB/9 over 212 1/3 regular-season innings in 2019. He was far and away the league leader in strikeouts (326), totaling 26 more than second-place finisher and Astros co-ace Justin Verlander.

Since his incredible regular season ended, Cole has added to his mystique with what has been a legendary playoff run. Cole dismantled the Rays and Yankees over three starts and 22 2/3 innings during the AL playoffs, yielding a mere one earned run on 10 hits with 32 strikeouts against eight walks. Unsurprisingly, the Astros went 3-0 in those games.

Cole may next help pitch the Astros to a World Series title in the coming days, but he’ll have plenty ahead of him after that. Not only does Cole look like a strong possibility to win his first Cy Young Award when the Fall Classic ends, but he might be weeks from scoring the largest contract a pitcher has ever received. To this point, just four hurlers – David Price, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer (Cole’s Game 1 World Series opponent) and Zack Greinke (now a Cole teammate) – have landed guarantees of $200MM or more. For now, the most valuable pact ever continues to belong to Price, whom the Red Sox signed for seven years and $217MM entering 2016.

There may have been skepticism earlier in the season in regards to Cole’s chances of joining Price and the rest of the $200MM club, but there shouldn’t be anymore. The question now doesn’t seem to be whether Cole, a pending free agent, will land a $200MM-plus guarantee; rather, it’s by how much his next deal will exceed that mark. The only potential free-agent starter who’s anywhere close to Cole’s stratosphere is Nationals righty Stephen Strasburg, a World Series foe, but he’s not even a lock to reach the open market. For Strasburg, doing so would mean opting out of the four years and $100MM left on his pact. Should Strasburg do it? Probably. But even if he does, it won’t preclude Cole from securing one of the richest (if not the richest) contracts anyone in the game has ever received.

It’s not hard to imagine deep-pocketed teams like Cole’s Astros, the Angels, Yankees, Nats, Phillies, Dodgers, Cubs and Giants, not to mention lower-payroll clubs like the Twins, White Sox, Rangers and Padres, among those in the mix for his services. So, there ought to be plenty of competition for Cole, which should help agent Scott Boras’ cause as he shops his star client around the league during the offseason. With Boras’ help, Cole may be on the verge of reeling in the biggest contract ever for a pitcher. Do you expect it to happen?

(Poll link for app users)

Will Gerrit Cole's guarantee exceed $217MM?
Yes 79.11% (5,846 votes)
No 20.89% (1,544 votes)
Total Votes: 7,390
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Houston Astros MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Gerrit Cole

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MLBTR Poll: Didi Gregorius & The Qualifying Offer

By Connor Byrne | October 21, 2019 at 8:23pm CDT

Now that the Yankees’ season is over, their front office is left to ponder the futures of many of the club’s players, including shortstop Didi Gregorius. While Gregorius has largely been an above-average to excellent contributor since the Yankees acquired him entering 2015, the two sides’ five-year partnership may be on the verge of ending. Gregorius is weeks from a trip to free agency, where he’s easily slated to be the highest-upside shortstop available. The question, if Gregorius does reach the open market, is whether he’ll come with a qualifying offer attached.

The 29-year-old Gregorius would’ve been a slam dunk for a $17.8MM QO were he coming off a similar season to the ones he posted from 2017-18. Gregorius was a 4.0-fWAR player in each of those years, though he underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow after the latter of those campaigns. As a result, Gregorius didn’t debut this year until June 7. When Gregorius returned, he wasn’t the same player the Yankees grew accustomed to seeing in the previous two seasons. He wound up playing just about half the season (82 games) and slashing a mediocre .238/.276/.441 in 344 plate appearances. The power outburst Gregorius enjoyed from 2017-18 remained intact, evidenced by his 16 home runs and his .204 ISO, yet he still only managed an 84 wRC+ (he checked in at 122 just a year ago).

In light of his downtick in production this season, it’s fair to wonder whether the Yankees will qualify Gregorius and risk paying him a hefty sum for 2020. They did bring Gregorius back for a pricey $11.75MM in the wake of his TJ surgery last year, but as mentioned, he was coming off a much stronger season at the time. Now, it’s easy to imagine Gregorius accepting a much more expensive QO and trying for a bounce-back year in New York. Doing so would take a significant chunk out of the luxury tax-minded Yankees’ spending room for a position to which the club arguably doesn’t need to allocate a ton of financial resources. The Yankees could let Gregorius walk, plug Gleyber Torres in at short and use DJ LeMahieu at second. Alternatively, if the Yankees really want to go for a bold strike after yet another season without a World Series title, they could trade for someone like Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor, keep Torres at second and continue to move the versatile LeMahieu around the infield.

Regardless of whether Lindor’s a realistic trade target for the Yankees, what should they do with Gregorius in the next couple weeks? Is he worth taking a chance on via QO, or should general manager Brian Cashman let him hit the market unfettered?

(Poll link for app users)

Should the Yankees qualify Gregorius?
Yes 52.23% (5,578 votes)
No 47.77% (5,101 votes)
Total Votes: 10,679
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MLBTR Polls New York Yankees Didi Gregorius

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MLBTR Poll: Which World Series Storyline Is The Most Compelling?

By TC Zencka | October 21, 2019 at 11:44am CDT

The results are in. The Astros are winning the 2019 World Series. As a community, we may only be 63% certain, but even for those 100% locked into A.J. Hinch’s club getting to four wins before the Nationals, there are plenty of storylines to follow in this year’s World Series. MASN’s Mark Zuckerman did us the favor of putting together a list. The star power of these two starting staffs alone could (and will) entertain for days, and though the power of these rotations is enough, there are some tasty subplots not far below the surface.

The first being the heart-wrenching showdown of former teammates. There’s Max Scherzer/Anibal Sanchez and Justin Verlander from the 2012 pennant winner in Detroit. There’s also Patrick Corbin and Zack Greinke, with Greinke serving as the “big bad” in a series of Corbin’s ex-teammates from Arizona. Corbin has already vanquished fellow ex-Diamondbacks A.J. Pollock and Paul Goldschmidt.

But there’s more. Take Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, who probably won’t face off head-to-head until free agency, arguably the top two targets on the open market. Though if recent reports prove prescient, they may not match up there either. Still, the two former first round picks will be compared to one another until one or the other signs their next contract.

Cole can just as easily find comparison with Scherzer, his likely game 1 counterpart and career track doppelgänger. Scherzer signed his massive free agent deal with the Nationals the offseason after he turned 30-years-old. Cole is a year younger, having just turned 29, but Scherzer piled up just 44 more innings at the time of his free agency. Max was 91-50 with a 3.58 ERA/3.39 FIP, 9.6 K/9 to 2.8 BB/9 at the time of his free agency. Cole’s record is 94-52 with a 3.22 ERA/3.06 FIP, 10.1 K/9 to 2.4 BB/9.

If there’s an owner out there who hasn’t yet realized the comparison, game 1 should drive home the point. It’s a scary thought, but Cole could turn out to be an even better version of Scherzer. Both had some ups-and-down with their debut franchise (Diamondbacks for Scherzer, Pirates for Cole) before coming into their own for a playoff contender while pitching behind an ace (in both cases: Verlander). If the Nats can pull off a win, Cole will enter free agency as Max did, having played in and lost one World Series.

The game 2 starters – Verlander and Strasburg – have a little before-and-after to them as well. Verlander was the 2nd overall pick of the Tigers in 2004, Strasburg 1st overall in 2009. Verlander signed an extension with the Tigers while still under contract in March the year after the Tigers lost in the World Series. Strasburg has an opt-out this winter, and it’s been presumed that he will levy that opt-out into an extension with the team that drafted him as well.

Verlander, of course, reached the World Series for the first time in his first full season as a starter in 2006. Strasburg was held out of the postseason in 2012, his first full season as a starter. For continuity’s sake, I’m absolutely willing to make the gigantic leap here that Stras’ postseason participation would have led to a World Series berth in 2012. Had Stras and those Nats actually made the World Series, they would have faced off against – who else – Verlander’s Tigers.

By that time, Verlander, 29, was 124-65 over 232 starts with a 3.40 ERA/3.41 FIP. Strasburg, 31, is 112-58 over 239 starts with a 3.17 ERA/2.96 FIP. They’re not identical athletes, of course, but their career tracks to this point are relatively aligned. The real takeaway here is this: if the Nationals lose this series, as predicted, and Stras re-ups in DC, as predicted, look for that hefty contract to hit the trade block in 4 or 5 years, and expect Stras to lead whichever team that is smart enough to trade for him (let’s be honest, probably the Astros) to a championship or two. Granted, I’m working pretty hard to hammer these comparisons home, but everyone has to reckon with their younger selves at some point, and it’s fun to think we get to watch Verlander and Scherzer do it on a World Series stage.

Zuckerman also lists Ryan Zimmerman and Jose Altuve as interesting juxtapositions given their long-term status as the face of their respective franchises. The two organizational soldiers clearly occupy different stratospheres within baseball’s talent hierarchy: at 29-years-old, Altuve’s 38.5 career bWAR already eclipses the 37.8 bWAR accrued by the 35-year-old Zimmerman. Still, both became the face of their respective franchise at a critical juncture – Zimmerman as the Nationals first draft pick following the move to DC, Altuve as the lone holdover from the Astros days in the National League. Just as Altuve has appeared in every season the Astros have been in the AL, Zimmerman has appeared in each of the Nationals 15 seasons in the capital. Both have had their share of the limelight in this year’s postseason.

Both teams also field homegrown third baseman who are MVP candidates in 2019. Anthony Rendon was the 6th overall selection of the 2011 draft, while Alex Bregman went 2nd overall in 2015. Neither may be the odds-on favorite to take home the hardware, but both are deserving. Bregman rocked a .296/.423/.592 with 41 home runs, 1.015 OPS, 168 wRC+ while leading the league with 119 walks. Rendon merely hit .319/.412/.598 with 34 home runs, 1.010 OPS, 154 wRC+ while leading the league with 44 doubles and 126 RBIs. Neither player strikes out, they both play a good third base, and it’s not hard to fathom this series coming down to a big hit from one of them or the other.

Either team’s victory would add a fascinating chapter to their organization’s narrative. For the Nationals, a World Series win would cap off a year of ultimate redemption. Twice in the same week they notched the unequivocal biggest win in franchise history, first by finally surviving a do-or-die game in the Wild Card, later in winning their first playoff series with another late-game comeback, this time against the Dodgers to win the NLDS. By the time they got around to sweeping the Cardinals out of the NLCS, big playoff victories were practically old hat. Not to mention, of course, that winning the big prize the first season post Bryce Harper is the best case scenario for the vindictive among us.

For the Astros, they have a dynasty on the line. By modern standards, you may already consider this team a dynasty for winning two pennants in three seasons, but plenty of teams have achieved that level of success this decade alone, including the Dodgers, Rangers, Cardinals, Royals, and Giants. The Dodgers (2017, 2018) and Rangers (2011, 2011) never took home the ultimate prize, of course, but only the Giants of 2010, 2012, and 2014 managed to win multiple rings.

To the above potential narratives, we can add Juan Soto’s 21st birthday in game 3, the old school versus new school debate incarnate should Anibal Sanchez face a bullpen game in game 4, and the more straightforward old versus young debate in the form of each team’s designated hitter: Yordan Alvarez for the Astros versus whichever old fool the Nats decide to deploy in the role (Howie Kendrick, Zimmerman, or Asdrubal Cabrera, most likely).

For those not interested in all the hoopla, there’s still a good ole fashioned sporting competition to enjoy. This should be baseball at its finest. There’s lots to focus on in this series, but which narrative strikes your fancy? And which narratives did we miss?

(poll link for app users)

Which World Series Storyline Is The Most Compelling?
Astros Dynasty 19.50% (1,077 votes)
The baseball 19.16% (1,058 votes)
Nationals Legacy 15.30% (845 votes)
Battle of former teammates, Tigers edition (Verlander, Scherzer, Sanchez) 13.53% (747 votes)
Free agency preview (Cole, Strasburg, Rendon) 10.56% (583 votes)
Career track doppelganger, game 1 edition (Cole/Scherzer) 7.04% (389 votes)
Other 5.70% (315 votes)
Battle of hot corner MVPs (Bregman v. Rendon) 5.40% (298 votes)
Franchise face off (Altuve v. Zimmerman) 1.58% (87 votes)
Battle of former teammates, Dbacks edition (Corbin vs. Greinke) 1.30% (72 votes)
Career track doppelganger, game 2 edition (Verlander/Strasburg) 0.94% (52 votes)
Total Votes: 5,523
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MLBTR Polls

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MLBTR Poll: CC Sabathia’s Hall Of Fame Case

By Connor Byrne | October 19, 2019 at 1:58am CDT

If his longstanding plan to retire at season’s end holds up, Yankees left-hander CC Sabathia has thrown the last pitch of his illustrious career. The 39-year-old suffered a shoulder injury during a relief appearance in New York’s Game 4 loss to Houston on Thursday, forcing the Yankees to pull him from their ALCS roster. That means even if the Yankees manage to overcome what’s now a 3-2 deficit against the mighty Astros to advance to the World Series, Sabathia won’t be eligible to participate in the Fall Classic.

Sabathia’s left to root for the Yankees to win it all without his help, though he told reporters it’s “kind of fitting” he’s going out this way. “I threw until I couldn’t anymore,” said Sabathia, whose left arm has been through the wringer since he debuted with the Indians back in 2001.

Between the regular season and the playoffs, Sabathia has amassed 3,707 2/3 innings. Also a former Brewer, whom he all but dragged to the playoffs in 2008 after they acquired him from the Indians, Sabathia has eclipsed 200 frames in eight different regular seasons. He fired 241 (the second-highest mark of his career) in 2007, his lone Cy Young-winning campaign.

Various injuries robbed Sabathia of the chance for another workhorse-type season in 2019, as he racked up a career-low 107 1/3 innings during his uncharacteristically ineffective swan song. Sabathia only pitched to a 4.95 ERA/5.66 FIP, but a subpar final season hardly overshadows the rest of a brilliant run in the majors. Owner of a lifetime 3.74 ERA/3.78 FIP, Sabathia’s going out as one of the premier starters in recent memory, giving him a legitimate chance for enshrinement in the Baseball Hall of Fame.

The question now is whether Sabathia should end up in Cooperstown, where he could earn a coveted plaque as early as 2025. As someone who ranks 16th all-time in strikeouts (3,093), 37th in pitcher fWAR (66.5), 48th in wins (251), 49th in pitcher bWAR (62.5) and 64th in regular-season innings (3,577 1/3), the credentials for strong consideration exist. He’s also a six-time All-Star, a one-time World Series champion (2009, when he was integral in the Yankees’ most recent title run) and, if it matters for his HOF odds, a revered teammate and leader. Whether all of that makes him a Hall of Famer is up for debate. What do you think?

(Poll link for app users)

CC Sabathia: Hall of Famer?
Yes 70.37% (9,991 votes)
No 29.63% (4,206 votes)
Total Votes: 14,197
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MLBTR Polls New York Yankees C.C. Sabathia

270 comments

Poll: The Phillies’ Managerial Finalists

By Mark Polishuk | October 17, 2019 at 10:28pm CDT

The Phillies’ managerial search appears to be down to three candidates, who combine for 53 years of experience at running a Major League team.  Gabe Kapler was a first-time manager who took an analytics-heavy approach to his role as the Phils’ skipper, though after two disappointing years, Kapler was fired to make way for a more seasoned hand in the dugout.  This isn’t to say that Dusty Baker, Joe Girardi, or Buck Showalter aren’t open to modern ideas, yet it’s clear that the Phillies are looking for, in the words of the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Matt Breen, a mix of “analytics and tradition.”

While it could be argued how “new school” or “old school” the three candidates are, one thing is for certain — Baker, Girardi, and Showalter all have outstanding track records.

Baker: 1863-1636 record over 22 seasons managing the Giants (1993-2002), Cubs (2003-06), Reds (2008-13), and Nationals (2016-17); 14 winning seasons; eight postseason appearances, seven division titles, one league pennant

Girardi: 988-794 record over 11 seasons managing the Marlins (2006) and Yankees (2008-17); 10 winning seasons; six postseason appearances, three division titles, one World Series championship

Showalter: 1551-1517 record over 20 seasons managing the Yankees (1992-95), Diamondbacks (1998-2000), Rangers (2003-06), Orioles (2010-18); 10 winning seasons; five postseason appearances, two division titles

Between managing contenders, also-rans, rebuilding teams, and (in Girardi’s case) World Series champions, the three skippers have basically seen it all in their careers, which should help in dealing with a Phillies team that has a lot of talent, but was also hamstrung by injuries and a lack of production in some key areas over the last two seasons.

As much as the Phillies were expected to contend this year, they haven’t yet gotten into that tier of the sport’s top teams — which is nothing unusual for Baker and Showalter, who have each molded losing teams into playoff contenders on multiple occasions.  Girardi didn’t exactly have the same rebuilding experience when he took over the consistently-winning Yankees following Joe Torre’s departure, though he withstood a decade in the Bronx pressure cooker, and kept the Yankees above .500 from 2013-16 during what counts, by New York’s standards, as a rebuilding period (only one postseason appearance in those four years).

If you ran the Phillies, which of these three managers would you hire to get your team over the top?  (Poll link for app users.)

Who would you hire as the Phillies' manager?
Joe Girardi 60.90% (9,371 votes)
Buck Showalter 22.45% (3,454 votes)
Dusty Baker 16.66% (2,563 votes)
Total Votes: 15,388

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MLBTR Polls Philadelphia Phillies Buck Showalter Dusty Baker Joe Girardi

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MLBTR Poll: Joe Maddon’s Angels Tenure

By Jeff Todd | October 17, 2019 at 8:37am CDT

Setting aside his fill-in work with the Angels earlier in his career, Joe Maddon has managed 14 campaigns in the majors. His club has cracked at least 90 wins in nine of those seasons and reached the postseason eight times. Whatever one thinks about the influence of a manager on the win-loss column, Maddon has undeniably piloted many a high-flying aircraft.

Maddon oversaw two lean years with the Rays before leaping from 66 wins to 97 and helping to shape the team into a perennial contender. He was brought in somewhat later in the process with the Cubs. In Chicago, he was tasked with vaulting a club brimming with young talent — but coming off of five-straight fifth-place finishes — into a new stratosphere. In his first year, Maddon flipped a 73-89 record into 97-65.

There are similarities and differences in his new gig. Maddon’s marching orders are essentially the same: replicate those 31-win (Rays) and 24-win (Cubs) bounces with the Halos. It’ll take something nearly as dramatic to get the L.A. organization back into the postseason for the first time since 2014. The club limped to a 72-90 record in 2019 and has turned in four consecutive losing campaigns. In a stratified American League, it might take 95 or more wins to make the playoffs.

That’s not to say it’s deja vu all over again. Maddon’s new Halos team is already led by established superstars, including the game’s greatest player in Mike Trout, its most fascinating talent in Shohei Ohtani (who’ll be back on the bump in 2020), peerless defensive wizard Andrelton Simmons, and slugger Justin Upton. The L.A. organization figures to have some funds to work with this winter and has one of the game’s truly elite prospects (Jo Adell) waiting in the wings. To be sure, there are needs — all over the pitching staff and behind the dish, in particular — but there are also resources to work with and quite a lot of talent already in place.

There’ll also be expectations. Maddon is no stranger to those after five years in Chicago. But his charges fell shy in 2018 and especially 2019, the lone year in which the Maddon-led Cubs fell shy of the playoffs. Halos owner Arte Moreno is surely short on patience given what he has invested in this club. GM Billy Eppler is roster-managing for his job without a contract beyond 2020. And the clock is ticking on Trout’s twenties.

Obviously this question involves considerations that go well beyond Maddon’s managerial acumen. But his hiring begins a consequential epoch for an organization that has endured disappointment as well as recent tragedy. Maddon will be a high-profile franchise face. He’ll start out with a three-year deal at a $12MM price tag — a significant commitment, but not quite the five-year, $25MM pact that drew him to Chicago.

So … how do you think it’ll turn out? (Poll link for app users.)

How Will Joe Maddon's Deal With Angels Turn Out?
Very well ... no crown in the first 3 years, but Joe will have a long run in LA. 41.27% (3,876 votes)
So-so ... the team will have a tough call whether to retain him for more. 29.71% (2,790 votes)
Great success ... serious run at a World Series title in the next 3 years. 21.00% (1,972 votes)
Not well ... there won't be a second contract and he may not finish the first.. 8.03% (754 votes)
Total Votes: 9,392
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Los Angeles Angels MLBTR Polls Joe Maddon

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MLBTR Poll: What Changed For The Nats?

By Jeff Todd | October 16, 2019 at 8:31am CDT

We spend most of our time at this particular corner of the internet focused on payrolls and rosters. The tendency of contemporary baseball analysis is to seek value; to appreciate (in the full sense of the word) the role of fortune and the impossibility of predicting which players will come through in big moments.

But who among us doubts that some have icier veins, or hotter-burning competitive fires? Or that some leaders are better than others at spurring their charges to play at their best … or make the right decision in a key moment? We may not be able to make statistically valid assessments of these characteristics in advance, but it doesn’t feel especially bold to suggest that some players and some teams have more than just a lucky bounce of the ball to credit for their high-leverage triumphs.

That brings us to the topic of this morning’s poll: the Nationals, baseball’s perennial postseason underperformers, who just finished off a stirring run through the National League. You know the essentials of this tale already. The Nats’ four previous divisional series were exceptionally competitive, featuring mind-blowing twists and turns. All ended in defeat for the D.C. team, which always seemed to come up just short at the pivotal juncture.

Not so this time. The Nats came roaring back in the regular season after a dismal start. They returned from the brink of elimination in the Wild Card game against the Brewers, scraping together a comeback against one of the game’s most dominant short-appearance pitchers. They not only pushed the powerhouse Dodgers to a fifth game but won it, overcoming an early deficit and outshining L.A.’s stars in crunch time. And the Nationals finally put to rest their earliest postseason demons — those summoned by Yadi and co. back in 2012 — by thoroughly destroying the Cardinals in a four-game NLCS sweep.

It’s a talented roster, to be sure. But the recent-vintage Nats have never lacked in talent, stars and otherwise. What is actually different this time around? It’s nearly an impossible thing to analyze with any amount of scientific precision. But it’s an essential question to ponder for those that care about winning baseball championships.

I’ve compiled a few … theories, I guess we will call them. What say you? (Poll link for app users.)

How did the Nats flip the narrative?
Ace trio ... Nats have always had great starting pitching, but not like this 32.17% (3,066 votes)
Bye-bye Bryce ... Harper was not the right star to lead this team 24.52% (2,337 votes)
Bounce of the ball ... you win some, you lose some; it's just their time 16.25% (1,549 votes)
Baby Shark 9.74% (928 votes)
Playing without fear ... they're finally an underdog 7.32% (698 votes)
Rizzo roster magic ... the GM finally got the right cast of stars and support players 6.54% (623 votes)
Davey did it ... the Nats finally have the right skipper in Martinez 3.47% (331 votes)
Total Votes: 9,532
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MLBTR Polls Washington Nationals

87 comments

MLBTR Poll: Executives Under Pressure

By Connor Byrne | October 14, 2019 at 9:00pm CDT

Major League Baseball’s regular season concluded two weeks ago, though no front offices have experienced significant shakeups since then. The Red Sox shockingly fired president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski in early September, less than a year after the roster he helped assemble won 108 regular-season games and a World Series title, but no other team has made a change since then. With the offseason just a few weeks from commencing, it’s doubtful any club will join Boston in seeking a new head of baseball ops prior to the winter.

While almost all front offices look stable right now, the story could be totally different a year from now. We’ve seen mass departures in the dugout in recent weeks, and several clubs may end up in position to ax their top front office minds in roughly 12 months. As Joel Sherman of the New York Post observed over the weekend, at least 10 teams could wind up seeking new front office heads by 2021 if things go haywire next season.

Going by Sherman’s list, the Cubs, Mariners, Rangers, Mets, Rockies, White Sox, Pirates, Padres, Angels and Phillies each have executives who could be in do-or-die positions next year. It would be especially earth-shaking to see the Cubs make a switch, as president of baseball ops Theo Epstein has largely delivered wonderful results since he exited Boston for Chicago prior to the 2012 campaign. Of course, manager Joe Maddon also did mostly brilliant work for the Cubs from 2015-19, but that didn’t prevent them from going in another direction after this year’s so-so 84-win showing. With that in mind, perhaps Epstein will meet a similar fate if the Cubs don’t rebound in 2020.

Aside from the Cubs, every team Sherman mentioned has been embroiled in a multiyear playoff drought. With the possible exception of the Mariners, whose owner, John Stanton, seems to be exercising patience with GM Jerry Dipoto, all of them could conceivably hire new front office leaders within a year. The Rangers’ Jon Daniels, the Mets’ Brodie Van Wagenen, the Rockies’ Jeff Bridich, the White Sox’s Rick Hahn, the Pirates’ Neal Huntington, the Padres’ A.J. Preller, the Angels’ Billy Eppler and the Phillies’ Matt Klentak do indeed seem especially vulnerable going into 2020. The same could apply to Reds president Dick Williams and-or GM Nick Krall if the team doesn’t make a leap up the standings after what it hopes will be an active offseason. The Marlins are so devoid of talent that they have almost no chance to compete in 2020, which could finally cost president Michael Hill his job (bear in mind co-owner Derek Jeter inherited Hill; he didn’t hire him).

There could also be other execs in trouble by next offseason, though the Dodgers (to some of their fans’ chagrin) look as if they’re on the cusp of locking up pending free-agent president Andrew Friedman after another year loaded with regular-season wins but lacking a World Series title. The Blue Jays could extend oft-maligned president Mark Shapiro, meanwhile, and the Twins might award chief baseball officer Derek Falvey a new pact in the wake of an eminently successful campaign.

The above bunch aside, it’s fair to guess the Astros, Yankees, Athletics, Rays, Indians, Royals, Orioles, Braves, Nationals, Cardinals, Brewers and Diamondbacks are perfectly happy with their front office alignments. Near-term changes likely aren’t in the offing for any of those clubs, then, but what of the rest?

(Poll link for app users)

Which execs should be on the hot seat?
Neal Huntington (Pirates) 16.68% (3,011 votes)
Matt Klentak (Phillies) 15.43% (2,785 votes)
Billy Eppler (Angels) 11.83% (2,136 votes)
Brodie Van Wagenen (Mets) 11.19% (2,021 votes)
A.J. Preller (Padres) 10.89% (1,966 votes)
Theo Epstein (Cubs) 9.95% (1,796 votes)
Jeff Bridich (Rockies) 7.58% (1,369 votes)
Jerry Dipoto (Mariners) 6.78% (1,225 votes)
Rick Hahn (White Sox) 4.18% (754 votes)
Jon Daniels (Rangers) 3.32% (599 votes)
Other (specify in comments) 2.18% (393 votes)
Total Votes: 18,055
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MLBTR Poll: Yasmani Grandal’s Next Contract

By Connor Byrne | October 11, 2019 at 8:37pm CDT

For the second straight offseason, Yasmani Grandal is scheduled to reach free agency as the undisputed No. 1 catcher available. Grandal got to the open market last winter after a strong multiyear run with the Dodgers, but he’ll return there this offseason on the heels of a quality campaign with the Brewers, who look likely to lose him.

The fact that Grandal even ended up in Milwaukee in the first place came as a surprise. Expectations were he’d emerge from his previous trip to free agency with a long-term, high-paying contract, but that didn’t materialize. There was at least one opportunity for Grandal to score that type of pact, as he reportedly turned down a four-year, $60MM offer from the Mets weeks before settling for far less.

The small-market Brewers capitalized on Grandal’s decision to reject New York, not to mention a lack of offers he deemed suitable from other clubs, by reeling him in on a one-year, $18.25MM guaranteee in January. The switch-hitting Grandal paid the Brew Crew back with a .246/.380/.468 batting line, a career-high 28 home runs and 5.2 fWAR in 632 plate appearances during another playoff-bound season for the team. Grandal performed well behind the plate at the same time, thus continuing a long run as one of the most well-rounded backstops in baseball.

The Brewers could technically control Grandal for another season, as the two sides have a $16MM mutual option (or a $2.25MM buyout) for 2020. Exercising it should be a no-brainer for Milwaukee, but rejecting it ought to be an easy call for Grandal. He has now put up five straight elite seasons, after all, and no longer has to worry about a qualifying offer weighing him down. The Dodgers hit Grandal with a QO a year ago, and because a player can’t receive it more than once, he’s in line for an unfettered free-agent run this time around. Not only that, but the 31-year-old Grandal won’t face much competition on the open market. It’s obvious the next best unsigned catchers – Jason Castro, Travis d’Arnaud and Robinson Chirinos – aren’t in his stratosphere.

Adding everything up, Grandal may be in ideal position this offseason to secure the type of payday he desired last year. Do you expect the two-time All-Star to outdo the $60MM he reportedly turned down back then?

(Poll link for app users)

How much will Grandal get in free agency?
$60MM or more 50.18% (3,757 votes)
Less than $60MM 49.82% (3,730 votes)
Total Votes: 7,487
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MLBTR Polls Milwaukee Brewers Yasmani Grandal

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