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MLBTR Poll: Qualified Free Agents

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Thursday was the deadline for the 10 players who received the $17.8MM qualifying offer early this offseason to decide whether to take it. Seven players ended up rejecting, two accepted it (Jake Odorizzi and Jose Abreu) and one (Will Smith, now with the Braves) signed a contract with another team. The players who turned it down – Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Josh Donaldson, Madison Bumgarner and Marcell Ozuna – are now in something of a disadvantageous position. With a QO hanging over their heads, it would require another team to surrender both a significant amount of money and draft compensation to sign them.

We’ve seen the QO hamper free agents in the past, but will it occur again this winter? First off, if it does, it’s at least not going to victimize Cole, Rendon or Strasburg. No matter what, they’re primed to lead this class of free agents in guarantees. Cole and Rendon should reel in $200MM-plus in guarantees, while Strasburg could approach that number. On the other hand, Wheeler, Donaldson, Bumgarner and Ozuna may face some degree of adversity thanks to the QO. Here’s a rundown on each…

Zack Wheeler, RHP
Age: 30 in May
MLBTR projection: Five years, $100MM

  • Aside from the QO, is there anything that would scare clubs away from Wheeler? Perhaps his injury history. Wheeler’s a former Tommy John surgery patient who missed all of 2015-16 and a large portion of ’17, though he has come back strong since. He combined for 377 2/3 innings of 3.65 ERA/3.37 FIP ball from 2018-19, during which he was one of the majors’ hardest-throwing starters.

Josh Donaldson, 3B
Age: 34 in December
MLBTR projection: Three years, $75MM

  • Age could be a problem for Donaldson, easily the oldest player left on this offseason’s qualifying offer market. He’s also not far from a couple injury-shortened seasons (2017-18) with the Blue Jays and Indians. To his credit, though, Donaldson was outstanding during a return to health in 2019. In his first and possibly lone season with the Braves, he slashed .259/.379/.521 with 37 home runs over 659 plate appearances. He’s now the second-best free-agent third baseman in a group that also includes Rendon and Mike Moustakas.

Madison Bumgarner, LHP
Age: 30
MLBTR projection: Four years, $72MM

  • Bumgarner, known for his postseason exploits and his long run atop the Giants’ rotation, put injury-limited 2017-18 seasons behind him this year to fire 207 2/3 innings with 8.8 K/9 against 1.86 BB/9. Those are front-of-the-rotation numbers, though the 3.90 ERA/FIP and 4.31 xFIP Bumgarner put up indicate he’s more of a No. 3-type starter nowadays. There’s nothing wrong with that, and judging by the early interest in Bumgarner in free agency, it appears he’ll be fine.

Marcell Ozuna, OF
Age: 29
MLBTR projection: Three years, $45MM

  • Ozuna’s the youngest player here, but he also looks like the least desirable. Although he typically offered above-average production in each season since he debuted in 2013, only once – in 2017 – has Ozuna recorded star-caliber numbers. He’s now coming off a year in which he slashed .243/.330/.474 (good for a decent but unspectacular 110 wRC+) with 29 home runs, 12 stolen bases and 2.6 fWAR across 549 trips to the plate. Does that type of output merit a large contract and draft compensation? We’ll see. It shouldn’t help Ozuna’s cause that there’s a similarly valuable free-agent corner outfielder, Nicholas Castellanos, who’s not saddled with a QO.

(Poll link for app users)

Which free agent's most likely to get hurt by the QO?
Ozuna 53.32% (4,528 votes)
Donaldson 17.91% (1,521 votes)
Bumgarner 13.86% (1,177 votes)
Wheeler 9.62% (817 votes)
More than one (specify in comments) 5.29% (449 votes)
Total Votes: 8,492

MLBTR Poll: Marcus Semien’s Long-Term Future

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Marcus Semien emerged as a true star in 2019. He slashed .285/.369/.522 with 33 home runs despite playing in a pitcher-friendly home park (137 wRC+). Semien’s walk rate spiked to a career-high 11.6%, he cut his strikeout rate to a career-low 13.7%, and easily set career marks in every power metric. The baseball traveling further than ever certainly helped, but Semien also set new career highs in hard contact rate and average exit velocity.

He was also as reliable as they come for manager Bob Melvin. Semien started 161 games at shortstop and rated as one of the league’s most valuable defenders, reaping the rewards of an elite work ethic which the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal chronicled in June. Those well-rounded contributions (he was worth 7.6 fWAR, fifth-most in MLB) have Semien alongside Mike Trout and Alex Bregman as finalists for the AL MVP award.

This offseason, though, could present an interesting question for A’s president of baseball operations Billy Beane and general manager David Forst. Semien has 5.118 years of MLB service, meaning he’s entering his final season of team control. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects Semien to land a $13.5MM salary in arbitration this offseason. That’s a huge bargain for the production Semien brings to the table, even if one is skeptical he’ll maintain his superstar level numbers next season. That said, it’s not inconsequential for an A’s team that ended last season with a $94MM payroll, per Roster Resource, but is currently projected to exceed $111MM in 2020. A big class of potential non-tenders, as explored by MLBTR’s Connor Byrne in his A’s Offseason Outlook, will surely cut that number down, but Oakland doesn’t figure to have a ton of financial flexibility this offseason.

That could lead to some speculation about Semien’s long-term future. By all accounts, player and organization remain extremely fond of one another, but at last look, there seemed to be little movement on extension talks. That’s not to say the sides will give up on hammering out a long-term agreement, but one coming together seems unlikely. After all, the 29-year-old has little financial incentive to give a hometown discount (and it would truly be a hometown discount, as Semien is from the Bay Area and attended college at UC Berkeley) being so close to free agency. The A’s, of course, aren’t typically ones to top the market on star players.

While Oakland no doubt hopes to contend in 2020, the AL West will be formidable. The Astros will again be heavy favorites coming off a 107-win season, and the Angels are widely expected to pursue the market’s top free agent starters. Perhaps the time is right for the A’s to gauge Semien’s value on the trade market, particularly if they don’t anticipate coming to an agreement on an extension. A Semien trade would be unpopular among A’s fans, but it wouldn’t be the first time Oakland traded a star player in his prime.

Assuming Semien doesn’t settle for less than he’s worth on the open market to stay in Oakland, how should the A’s proceed? Get a deal done with Semien at all costs and build around a likable, hometown star? Make the unpopular move to send him away after he’s fully blossomed, but perhaps at peak value? Or play it out, make a run for a third straight postseason appearance and recoup a compensatory draft pick if/when Semien leaves in free agency?

(poll link for app users, answer choices in random order)

How Should The A's Proceed With Marcus Semien?
Get an extension done, even if it costs market value. 36.74% (2,746 votes)
Trade him this offseason. 32.29% (2,413 votes)
Continue going year-by-year via arbitration. 30.97% (2,315 votes)
Total Votes: 7,474

Will Anyone Take The Qualifying Offer?

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Ten players received $17.8MM qualifying offers this winter. The clock is now ticking on their decisions to accept or decline, with a final call due one week from today. In many cases, the QO is quite easy to spurn. For players of a certain quality level, there just isn’t much downside to saying no — even if that means dragging draft compensation with you onto the market. Even when the market doesn’t developed as hoped, it’s usually possible to beat or exceed the QO value. Last year, Craig Kimbrel secured a mid-season, multi-year deal while Dallas Keuchel earned a bit more than the QO rate for the time he spent in the big leagues in 2019.

That said, there are risks to rejecting the qualifying offer for qualifying offer recipients — even those that seem fairly obvious candidates to reject it. Ian Desmond, Mike Moustakas, Dexter Fowler, and Nelson Cruz are among those that have followed Kendrys Morales and Stephen Drew in stumbling into some of the pitfalls of the system.

This year, as usual, there’s a slate of players that won’t give the qualifying offer a second thought. And there are a few that will at least need to ponder how they’ll be treated on the market if they say no.

Here’s this year’s list …

There’s virtually no chance of Bumgarner, Cole, Donaldson, Rendon, Strasburg, or Wheeler settling for a one-year, $17.8MM payday when their market outlook is so strong. (But we’ll include them in the poll anyway.) There’s at least some argument for each of the other players to consider it.

Abreu is perhaps the most obvious option to run into choppy open-market waters if he declines. But there’s also every expectation that he’ll remain with the White Sox in one manner or another, so he could even reject it and just keep talking about a slightly lengthier pact (if one isn’t reached within the next week, as seems likely).

Excellent as Smith has been, he’s a relief pitcher. Much as there’s a newfound appreciation for the value of high-leverage arms, there’s still also an unwillingness to go too big in terms of contract length in the current market climate. There should be widespread interest in the southpaw, but perhaps teams will balk at the draft pick. It seems reasonable to think Smith can at least land a multi-year arrangement, particularly with Aroldis Chapman staying in New York before free agency kicked off, but that $17.8MM single-season salary still holds appeal. The incomparable Chapman is earning $16MM annually over three seasons on his new arrangement. Perhaps Smith will just shrug and count his blessings to be paid for one season like almost no reliever before him. (Wade Davis earned $18MM in 2019.)

It’s tougher to see Odorizzi or Ozuna following that same logic, but not impossible. The former just turned in a much better campaign than he did in his prior two seasons, which cuts both ways. Perhaps now is the time to cash in on that multi-year deal. But there are also some shades of Jeremy Hellickson, who took a QO out of fear that the market wouldn’t reward his strong results. Odorizzi’s peripherals look to be in better shape, it ought to be noted.

Ozuna seems to be a safer bet on the open market as a youthful hitter. But look back at that group of players that have really been bitten by the QO and you’ll see a bunch of position players, some of them relatively young at the time they reached the market. Teams may be somewhat more hesitant to do lengthy pitching contracts, but they’ve proven willing to bail out hurlers with heftier deals as well, likely reflecting the greater need for depth in that area and ease of knocking in-house pitchers down the depth chart when a new one is added.

Despite my best efforts, our polling system seems unwilling to enable a multiple-choice setup. Instead, we’ll settle for asking how many players you anticipate taking the offer this year:

(Poll link for app users. )

How Many Players Will Take The Qualifying Offer?
2 43.37% (3,669 votes)
1 37.44% (3,167 votes)
3 14.10% (1,193 votes)
4 2.86% (242 votes)
5 2.22% (188 votes)
Total Votes: 8,459

MLBTR Poll: Nats’ Top Two Free Agents

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Just under a week after knocking off the Astros in a seven-game World Series, the Nationals are undoubtedly still reveling over their first championship. But now that the offseason has arrived, they’re at risk of losing a few key contributors to free agency.

Two of the many faces of the Nationals’ improbable playoff run were right-hander Stephen Strasburg and third baseman Anthony Rendon, who each seemed to come up with one heroic moment after another throughout the postseason. Strasburg deservedly earned World Series MVP honors after going on a particularly jaw-dropping run. It’s no surprise he and Rendon, who have consistently been among the Nationals’ top players and the majors’ most impressive performers throughout their careers, were among the main catalysts for the club’s championship. And now that they’re unsigned heading into 2020, they’re about to be paid rather handsomely for their years-long shows of brilliance. The question is whether they’ll continue with the Nationals going forward.

MLBTR regards the Nationals as the favorites to sign both Strasburg and Rendon, though doing so will require the team to put its enviable financial might on full display. We project the 31-year-old Strasburg (six years, $180MM) and the 29-year-old Rendon (seven years, $235MM) to combine for $415MM on their next contracts. That type of commitment may be especially risky in the case of Strasburg – not only owing to the fact that he’s a pitcher, but because injuries have been somewhat common throughout his career. Although Strasburg did just toss a career-high 209 regular-season innings in 2019, he’s only a year removed from a 130-frame showing – which was the latest of a handful of abbreviated campaigns in his career.

Of course, the point of this exercise isn’t to list the few flaws Strasburg and Rendon may have. It’s to ask whether the Nationals will re-sign one, both or either of the superstar Scott Boras clients. Fresh off a fairytale few months, there’s surely motivation for both sides to work something out. Rendon has indicated in the past he’d like to continue his career with the only organization he has known since it selected him in the sixth round of the 2011 draft. Strasburg, meanwhile, first joined the franchise as an extremely hyped No. 1 pick in 2009. While Strasburg did just opt out of the remaining four years and $100MM left on his contract, that common sense business decision doesn’t necessarily mean he’s champing at the bit to leave D.C. What do you think the future holds for him and Rendon?

(Poll link for app users)

Will the Nats re-sign Strasburg or Rendon?
Yes to both 30.23% (3,419 votes)
Strasburg 28.31% (3,202 votes)
Rendon 25.56% (2,891 votes)
They won't keep either 15.89% (1,797 votes)
Total Votes: 11,309

MLBTR Poll: Free Agent Corner Outfielders

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It has long been evident that this year’s free agent market would include some notably youthful corner outfielders. Our just-released top 50 list reveals MLBTR’s collective thinking on the subject, though we certainly discussed a wide range of possibilities with respect to each of these players. And there’s often good reason to prefer a lower-cost investment, even if it comes with less upside or greater risk.

As it turned out, Nicholas Castellanos took the highest spot on the board after a monster run down the stretch with the Cubs. I’m personally a bit less bullish than our prediction indicates. While Castellanos is accomplished and still youthful, I’m not sure there’s enough bat to carry his still-rough glove in a market environment that has not treated less-than-elite hitters kindly. But perhaps it’s best to put more money down if it means getting the most offensive bang available in this player group.

Of course, you might take issue with my personal preference for the market position of Marcell Ozuna. He has been outperformed at the plate by Castellanos, though Ozuna’s Statcast numbers have jumped off the page. Ozuna is a better defender but is hardly perfect in that area. He’ll also be dragging a qualifying offer onto the open market.

There’s a case to be made that there’s much more potential value to be had in Avisail Garcia, who is just as young as those players and just turned in a strong season. He still has a highly appealing toolset — including excellent speed, if you can believe it — and might yet have some ceiling. Perhaps he’s an under-the-radar target that some teams will be eyeing.

Are we missing anyone in this group? Oh, right, Yasiel Puig. He scuffled early last year but was a useful player on the field. He has at times been an excellent performer and still seems to have the ability to provide ample production. There may be some headaches, but Puig is also undeniably a charismatic presence that might just help jolt a quiet franchise. He seemed to get along well enough with the Reds and Indians; there were fireworks during 2019, but they weren’t directed at other members of his organizations.

Regardless of which player turned in the best 2019 showing or possesses the most pure talent, it’s possible to imagine any of these four pacing the group in 2020 and beyond. Who do you think offers the most intriguing opportunity on this winter’s market?

(Poll link for app users; response order randomized.)

MLBTR Poll: Which Corner Outfielder Is The Best Market Choice?
Marcell Ozuna 40.88% (3,415 votes)
Nicholas Castellanos 35.09% (2,931 votes)
Yasiel Puig 14.32% (1,196 votes)
Avisail Garcia 9.71% (811 votes)
Total Votes: 8,353

MLBTR Poll: Value Of Potential J.D. Martinez Contract

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The Red Sox just named a new chief baseball officer in Chaim Bloom, but he may already be facing the departure of one of the team’s best players. Designated hitter/outfielder J.D. Martinez will have a chance to opt out of the remaining three years and $62.5MM left on his contract within five days of the conclusion of the World Series, which could end Tuesday. Red Sox chairman Tom Werner recently met with Martinez’s agent, Scott Boras, though owner John Henry said afterward the club’s still not sure whether JDM will exit his contract in the coming days.

On one hand, if Martinez goes back to free agency, it could give Boston the type of financial relief it’s seeking. The team’s seemingly hoping to get under the $208MM competitive-balance tax threshold for 2020, so erasing Martinez from its list of guarantees would be a boon in that regard. On the other, it’s hard to imagine a Red Sox team that just missed the playoffs improving without Martinez in the fold. The 32-year-old is only weeks removed from the end of another excellent offensive campaign, in which he slashed .304/.383/.557 (139 wRC+) with 36 home runs in 657 plate appearances. Martinez’s results this year weren’t as tremendous as they were from 2017-18 with the Tigers, Diamondbacks and Red Sox, though he was still unquestionably one of the premier hitters in the game. Statcast backed that up, crediting Martinez with a .402 expected weighted on-base average that tied him with Aaron Judge for ninth in baseball.

It’s pretty clear Martinez can still hit at an elite level. Still, it’s not clear whether he should opt out. He’d be leaving a substantial amount of money on the table in doing so, which could be especially risky for a 30-something whom the Red Sox would saddle with a qualifying offer. There was no QO hanging over Martinez’s head when he signed with Boston for five years and $110MM entering 2018, as he was part of a midseason trade during the prior campaign. He wouldn’t be so fortunate this time, and with teams seemingly veering away from giving up draft-pick compensation for aging free agents, Martinez may be in for a disappointing trip to the open market. That’s particularly true when considering his lack of defensive value, which could largely limit Martinez’s market to American League franchises that could use him as a DH.

It’s obvious Martinez is no slam dunk to opt out, but whether he does will be one of baseball’s most interesting stories in the coming days. If Martinez does leave behind what’s left of his Red Sox deal, though, how well do you think he’d do on his next pact?

(Poll link for app users)

Predict the value of a potential Martinez deal
$60MM-$69MM 28.39% (2,588 votes)
Less than $60MM 25.62% (2,336 votes)
$70MM-79$MM 24.87% (2,267 votes)
$80MM or more 21.13% (1,926 votes)
Total Votes: 9,117

MLBTR Poll: Francisco Lindor’s Future

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We may be in for at least a couple of months of rumors centering on superstar Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor, who came up in trade speculation earlier Monday. The Dodgers are reportedly set to explore taking an offseason run at Lindor, already a four-time All-Star who won’t turn 26 until next month. Los Angeles is likely part of a large group of teams with interest in Lindor, as he’s clearly an elite, in-his-prime player who holds down one of baseball’s most valuable positions with aplomb.

In Cleveland’s shoes, it’s hardly a slam dunk the team will market Lindor. Since Lindor debuted in 2015, the Indians have come within striking distance of a World Series title, they’ve won three division championships and haven’t finished below .500. Even this season, which was a disappointment and non-playoff campaign for the club, it still won 93 games. Lindor was no small part of the Indians’ latest respectable performance, as he accounted for 4.4 fWAR, 34 home runs and 22 stolen bases despite missing the first couple weeks of the season with calf and ankle injuries. Factoring in his most recent output, the switch-hitting Lindor is tied with the venerable Jose Altuve for sixth among position players in fWAR (27.2).

Thanks to Lindor’s career-long brilliance, he’s set to earn a somewhat lofty salary in 2020 – his penultimate year of arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Lindor will rake in $16.7MM, which obviously isn’t the type of salary just any team could absorb. However, Lindor is spectacular enough to make it worthwhile, and with the possible exception of Didi Gregorius, the upcoming class of free-agent shortstops offers little in the way of answers. With that in mind, the Indians probably wouldn’t have difficulty landing appealing offers for Lindor.

Of course, whether the Indians are willing to seriously consider moving Lindor (or someone like right-hander Corey Kluber, another speculative trade candidate) is in question. There still appears to be enough talent on hand for the team to push for a playoff berth next season, after all. The Indians could easily retain Lindor and attempt to make another run at a World Series in 2020, or they could at least keep him until the July trade deadline and see where they stand at that point. That said, the trade value of Lindor is surely high now, and the small-market Indians appear highly unlikely to extend him before he’s eligible to reach free agency. Perhaps the upcoming winter is the right time to aggressively market Lindor, then. How do you expect it to pan out?

(Poll link for app users)

Will the Indians trade Lindor this offseason?
Yes 51.89% (4,961 votes)
No 48.11% (4,600 votes)
Total Votes: 9,561

MLBTR Poll: Record Money For Gerrit Cole?

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Astros right-hander Gerrit Cole is just moments away from taking the ball against the Nationals in Game 1 of the teams’ World Series matchup. It’s a well-deserved honor for Cole, who has perhaps been the premier pitcher in baseball this season. The 29-year-old logged a sterling 2.50 ERA/2.64 FIP with a ridiculous 13.82 K/9 against 2.03 BB/9 over 212 1/3 regular-season innings in 2019. He was far and away the league leader in strikeouts (326), totaling 26 more than second-place finisher and Astros co-ace Justin Verlander.

Since his incredible regular season ended, Cole has added to his mystique with what has been a legendary playoff run. Cole dismantled the Rays and Yankees over three starts and 22 2/3 innings during the AL playoffs, yielding a mere one earned run on 10 hits with 32 strikeouts against eight walks. Unsurprisingly, the Astros went 3-0 in those games.

Cole may next help pitch the Astros to a World Series title in the coming days, but he’ll have plenty ahead of him after that. Not only does Cole look like a strong possibility to win his first Cy Young Award when the Fall Classic ends, but he might be weeks from scoring the largest contract a pitcher has ever received. To this point, just four hurlers – David Price, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer (Cole’s Game 1 World Series opponent) and Zack Greinke (now a Cole teammate) – have landed guarantees of $200MM or more. For now, the most valuable pact ever continues to belong to Price, whom the Red Sox signed for seven years and $217MM entering 2016.

There may have been skepticism earlier in the season in regards to Cole’s chances of joining Price and the rest of the $200MM club, but there shouldn’t be anymore. The question now doesn’t seem to be whether Cole, a pending free agent, will land a $200MM-plus guarantee; rather, it’s by how much his next deal will exceed that mark. The only potential free-agent starter who’s anywhere close to Cole’s stratosphere is Nationals righty Stephen Strasburg, a World Series foe, but he’s not even a lock to reach the open market. For Strasburg, doing so would mean opting out of the four years and $100MM left on his pact. Should Strasburg do it? Probably. But even if he does, it won’t preclude Cole from securing one of the richest (if not the richest) contracts anyone in the game has ever received.

It’s not hard to imagine deep-pocketed teams like Cole’s Astros, the Angels, Yankees, Nats, Phillies, Dodgers, Cubs and Giants, not to mention lower-payroll clubs like the Twins, White Sox, Rangers and Padres, among those in the mix for his services. So, there ought to be plenty of competition for Cole, which should help agent Scott Boras’ cause as he shops his star client around the league during the offseason. With Boras’ help, Cole may be on the verge of reeling in the biggest contract ever for a pitcher. Do you expect it to happen?

(Poll link for app users)

Will Gerrit Cole's guarantee exceed $217MM?
Yes 79.11% (5,846 votes)
No 20.89% (1,544 votes)
Total Votes: 7,390

MLBTR Poll: Didi Gregorius & The Qualifying Offer

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Now that the Yankees’ season is over, their front office is left to ponder the futures of many of the club’s players, including shortstop Didi Gregorius. While Gregorius has largely been an above-average to excellent contributor since the Yankees acquired him entering 2015, the two sides’ five-year partnership may be on the verge of ending. Gregorius is weeks from a trip to free agency, where he’s easily slated to be the highest-upside shortstop available. The question, if Gregorius does reach the open market, is whether he’ll come with a qualifying offer attached.

The 29-year-old Gregorius would’ve been a slam dunk for a $17.8MM QO were he coming off a similar season to the ones he posted from 2017-18. Gregorius was a 4.0-fWAR player in each of those years, though he underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow after the latter of those campaigns. As a result, Gregorius didn’t debut this year until June 7. When Gregorius returned, he wasn’t the same player the Yankees grew accustomed to seeing in the previous two seasons. He wound up playing just about half the season (82 games) and slashing a mediocre .238/.276/.441 in 344 plate appearances. The power outburst Gregorius enjoyed from 2017-18 remained intact, evidenced by his 16 home runs and his .204 ISO, yet he still only managed an 84 wRC+ (he checked in at 122 just a year ago).

In light of his downtick in production this season, it’s fair to wonder whether the Yankees will qualify Gregorius and risk paying him a hefty sum for 2020. They did bring Gregorius back for a pricey $11.75MM in the wake of his TJ surgery last year, but as mentioned, he was coming off a much stronger season at the time. Now, it’s easy to imagine Gregorius accepting a much more expensive QO and trying for a bounce-back year in New York. Doing so would take a significant chunk out of the luxury tax-minded Yankees’ spending room for a position to which the club arguably doesn’t need to allocate a ton of financial resources. The Yankees could let Gregorius walk, plug Gleyber Torres in at short and use DJ LeMahieu at second. Alternatively, if the Yankees really want to go for a bold strike after yet another season without a World Series title, they could trade for someone like Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor, keep Torres at second and continue to move the versatile LeMahieu around the infield.

Regardless of whether Lindor’s a realistic trade target for the Yankees, what should they do with Gregorius in the next couple weeks? Is he worth taking a chance on via QO, or should general manager Brian Cashman let him hit the market unfettered?

(Poll link for app users)

Should the Yankees qualify Gregorius?
Yes 52.23% (5,578 votes)
No 47.77% (5,101 votes)
Total Votes: 10,679

MLBTR Poll: Which World Series Storyline Is The Most Compelling?

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The results are in. The Astros are winning the 2019 World Series. As a community, we may only be 63% certain, but even for those 100% locked into A.J. Hinch’s club getting to four wins before the Nationals, there are plenty of storylines to follow in this year’s World Series. MASN’s Mark Zuckerman did us the favor of putting together a list. The star power of these two starting staffs alone could (and will) entertain for days, and though the power of these rotations is enough, there are some tasty subplots not far below the surface.

The first being the heart-wrenching showdown of former teammates. There’s Max Scherzer/Anibal Sanchez and Justin Verlander from the 2012 pennant winner in Detroit. There’s also Patrick Corbin and Zack Greinke, with Greinke serving as the “big bad” in a series of Corbin’s ex-teammates from Arizona. Corbin has already vanquished fellow ex-Diamondbacks A.J. Pollock and Paul Goldschmidt.

But there’s more. Take Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, who probably won’t face off head-to-head until free agency, arguably the top two targets on the open market. Though if recent reports prove prescient, they may not match up there either. Still, the two former first round picks will be compared to one another until one or the other signs their next contract.

Cole can just as easily find comparison with Scherzer, his likely game 1 counterpart and career track doppelgänger. Scherzer signed his massive free agent deal with the Nationals the offseason after he turned 30-years-old. Cole is a year younger, having just turned 29, but Scherzer piled up just 44 more innings at the time of his free agency. Max was 91-50 with a 3.58 ERA/3.39 FIP, 9.6 K/9 to 2.8 BB/9 at the time of his free agency. Cole’s record is 94-52 with a 3.22 ERA/3.06 FIP, 10.1 K/9 to 2.4 BB/9.

If there’s an owner out there who hasn’t yet realized the comparison, game 1 should drive home the point. It’s a scary thought, but Cole could turn out to be an even better version of Scherzer. Both had some ups-and-down with their debut franchise (Diamondbacks for Scherzer, Pirates for Cole) before coming into their own for a playoff contender while pitching behind an ace (in both cases: Verlander). If the Nats can pull off a win, Cole will enter free agency as Max did, having played in and lost one World Series.

The game 2 starters – Verlander and Strasburg – have a little before-and-after to them as well. Verlander was the 2nd overall pick of the Tigers in 2004, Strasburg 1st overall in 2009. Verlander signed an extension with the Tigers while still under contract in March the year after the Tigers lost in the World Series. Strasburg has an opt-out this winter, and it’s been presumed that he will levy that opt-out into an extension with the team that drafted him as well.

Verlander, of course, reached the World Series for the first time in his first full season as a starter in 2006. Strasburg was held out of the postseason in 2012, his first full season as a starter. For continuity’s sake, I’m absolutely willing to make the gigantic leap here that Stras’ postseason participation would have led to a World Series berth in 2012. Had Stras and those Nats actually made the World Series, they would have faced off against – who else – Verlander’s Tigers.

By that time, Verlander, 29, was 124-65 over 232 starts with a 3.40 ERA/3.41 FIP. Strasburg, 31, is 112-58 over 239 starts with a 3.17 ERA/2.96 FIP. They’re not identical athletes, of course, but their career tracks to this point are relatively aligned. The real takeaway here is this: if the Nationals lose this series, as predicted, and Stras re-ups in DC, as predicted, look for that hefty contract to hit the trade block in 4 or 5 years, and expect Stras to lead whichever team that is smart enough to trade for him (let’s be honest, probably the Astros) to a championship or two. Granted, I’m working pretty hard to hammer these comparisons home, but everyone has to reckon with their younger selves at some point, and it’s fun to think we get to watch Verlander and Scherzer do it on a World Series stage.

Zuckerman also lists Ryan Zimmerman and Jose Altuve as interesting juxtapositions given their long-term status as the face of their respective franchises. The two organizational soldiers clearly occupy different stratospheres within baseball’s talent hierarchy: at 29-years-old, Altuve’s 38.5 career bWAR already eclipses the 37.8 bWAR accrued by the 35-year-old Zimmerman. Still, both became the face of their respective franchise at a critical juncture – Zimmerman as the Nationals first draft pick following the move to DC, Altuve as the lone holdover from the Astros days in the National League. Just as Altuve has appeared in every season the Astros have been in the AL, Zimmerman has appeared in each of the Nationals 15 seasons in the capital. Both have had their share of the limelight in this year’s postseason.

Both teams also field homegrown third baseman who are MVP candidates in 2019. Anthony Rendon was the 6th overall selection of the 2011 draft, while Alex Bregman went 2nd overall in 2015. Neither may be the odds-on favorite to take home the hardware, but both are deserving. Bregman rocked a .296/.423/.592 with 41 home runs, 1.015 OPS, 168 wRC+ while leading the league with 119 walks. Rendon merely hit .319/.412/.598 with 34 home runs, 1.010 OPS, 154 wRC+ while leading the league with 44 doubles and 126 RBIs. Neither player strikes out, they both play a good third base, and it’s not hard to fathom this series coming down to a big hit from one of them or the other.

Either team’s victory would add a fascinating chapter to their organization’s narrative. For the Nationals, a World Series win would cap off a year of ultimate redemption. Twice in the same week they notched the unequivocal biggest win in franchise history, first by finally surviving a do-or-die game in the Wild Card, later in winning their first playoff series with another late-game comeback, this time against the Dodgers to win the NLDS. By the time they got around to sweeping the Cardinals out of the NLCS, big playoff victories were practically old hat. Not to mention, of course, that winning the big prize the first season post Bryce Harper is the best case scenario for the vindictive among us.

For the Astros, they have a dynasty on the line. By modern standards, you may already consider this team a dynasty for winning two pennants in three seasons, but plenty of teams have achieved that level of success this decade alone, including the Dodgers, Rangers, Cardinals, Royals, and Giants. The Dodgers (2017, 2018) and Rangers (2011, 2011) never took home the ultimate prize, of course, but only the Giants of 2010, 2012, and 2014 managed to win multiple rings.

To the above potential narratives, we can add Juan Soto’s 21st birthday in game 3, the old school versus new school debate incarnate should Anibal Sanchez face a bullpen game in game 4, and the more straightforward old versus young debate in the form of each team’s designated hitter: Yordan Alvarez for the Astros versus whichever old fool the Nats decide to deploy in the role (Howie Kendrick, Zimmerman, or Asdrubal Cabrera, most likely).

For those not interested in all the hoopla, there’s still a good ole fashioned sporting competition to enjoy. This should be baseball at its finest. There’s lots to focus on in this series, but which narrative strikes your fancy? And which narratives did we miss?

(poll link for app users)

Which World Series Storyline Is The Most Compelling?
Astros Dynasty 19.50% (1,077 votes)
The baseball 19.16% (1,058 votes)
Nationals Legacy 15.30% (845 votes)
Battle of former teammates, Tigers edition (Verlander, Scherzer, Sanchez) 13.53% (747 votes)
Free agency preview (Cole, Strasburg, Rendon) 10.56% (583 votes)
Career track doppelganger, game 1 edition (Cole/Scherzer) 7.04% (389 votes)
Other 5.70% (315 votes)
Battle of hot corner MVPs (Bregman v. Rendon) 5.40% (298 votes)
Franchise face off (Altuve v. Zimmerman) 1.58% (87 votes)
Battle of former teammates, Dbacks edition (Corbin vs. Greinke) 1.30% (72 votes)
Career track doppelganger, game 2 edition (Verlander/Strasburg) 0.94% (52 votes)
Total Votes: 5,523
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