Poll: Grading Manny Machado’s 2019
The long-suffering Padres made a stunning strike in free agency last offseason when they signed former Orioles and Dodgers infielder Manny Machado to a 10-year, $300MM contract in late February. For a short period, Machado’s deal stood as the richest in the history of the game. Outfielder Bryce Harper – who, along with Machado – owned baseball-related headlines last winter, surpassed him less than two weeks later with a 13-year, $330MM guarantee from the Phillies. Harper was more good than great in the first year of his accord, though, while Machado probably wasn’t as strong as many expected him to be in his San Diego debut.
In the end, neither Harper nor Machado led their teams to drought-breaking playoff berths in 2019. The Padres won a paltry 70 games and extended their postseason-less streak to a whopping 13 years, though they surely remain hopeful Machado will help them back to relevance in short order. However, for the Padres to maximize their chances of success as they move ahead, they’re going to need the more productive version of Machado to reappear.
To his credit, Machado continued an impressive run of durability in 2019, appearing in at least 156 games for the fifth consecutive season. He also belted upward of 30 home runs (32) for the fifth year in a row. Overall, though, the Machado who was a dominant offensive player as recently as 2018, when he posted a wRC+ of 140 en route to 6.2 fWAR, wasn’t present. Machado’s wRC+ dropped to 108 this year, while his fWAR total fell to 3.0. Both figures are respectable, but they don’t make for superstar-caliber output. The same can obviously be said of the .256/.334/.462 line Machado recorded over 661 plate appearances. And Statcast doesn’t indicate Machado deserved a better fate at the plate, evidenced by his matching .339 weighted on-base average/expected wOBA (a steep drop-off from his .377/.372 in 2018).
On the defensive side, Machado remained a stalwart at third base, where he accounted for 5 Defensive Runs Saved and a plus-2.4 Ultimate Zone Rating. Per the metrics, Machado was less successful at shortstop (minus-2 DRS, minus-1.5 UZR), but that doesn’t figure to be his long-term spot anyway. He saw 299 innings at the position because of multiple lengthy injured list stints for rookie Fernando Tatis Jr., who, when healthy, showed why he’s one of the most coveted young players in baseball.
Machado, for his part, is still plenty youthful in his own right. He won’t turn 28 until next July, and even though the four-time All-Star wasn’t a force this season, the left side of San Diego’s infield will remain in enviable shape going forward with him and Tatis in the fold. As for this year, though, how would you assess Machado’s performance?
(Poll link for app users)
Grade Manny Machado's 2019 performance
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C 52% (5,743)
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B 28% (3,028)
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D 14% (1,498)
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F 5% (562)
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A 2% (171)
Total votes: 11,002
Poll: Grading Bryce Harper’s 2019
Outfielder Bryce Harper was a dominant presence on this website and every other national baseball media outlet last winter, at which point the then-free agent was coming off a stellar run in Washington. One of the most hyped players in the sport since he was a teenager, Harper reached the open market as a six-time All-Star and a one-time National League Most Valuable Player with 30.5 fWAR/27.4 bWAR on his resume. Harper accomplished those feats by the ripe old age of 26, and with youth on his side, he looked like a strong bet to reel in the largest free-agent contract in the history of baseball. In the end, that’s exactly what happened.
While Harper’s stay on the open market lasted longer than expected, he eventually agreed to a record pact to exit the Nationals for the division-rival Phillies. His 13-year, $330MM deal became official March 1, standing as the biggest guarantee ever doled out until the Angels’ Mike Trout signed a decade-long extension worth $360MM three weeks later.
Thanks to the Harper signing and their several other headline-grabbing offseason pickups, the Phillies came into 2019 with a seemingly realistic chance of breaking a seven-year playoff drought. Instead, though, they’ve locked up yet another October-less season with just a few days to go. Now 79-80 and in the throes of another uninspiring late-season finish, it appears the club will be fortunate just to post its first .500 campaign since 2012.
It’s clear the Phillies will go down as one of this year’s most disappointing teams, but that’s not to suggest Harper has been at fault. If one player could elevate a team from mediocrity to excellence, then Trout’s Angels would be in title contention every year instead of regularly wallowing at the bottom of the AL West. Harper’s no Trout (who is?), but it doesn’t seem fair to assign any of the blame for Philly’s struggles to him.
The fact is that Harper’s overall 2019 output hasn’t been much different than the production he managed in D.C. on multiple occasions. With a .261/.374/.511 line in 668 plate appearances, Harper’s offensive production has been a more-than-respectable 26 percent better than league average, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. He has also slugged at least 30 home runs (34) for the third time and stolen 14 bases on 17 attempts.
Harper was a superior offensive player last year, as his 135 wRC+ shows; on the other hand, his defense has dramatically improved compared to 2018. In his final season as a National, Harper combined for hideous numbers between center and right field, where he totaled minus-26 Defensive Runs Saved, a minus-14.4 Ultimate Zone Rating and minus-13 Outs Above Average. Harper ranked among the majors’ five worst outfielders in all of those categories, including dead last in UZR. This year, however, Harper has accounted for 7 DRS, 10.9 UZR and 1 OAA whiil spending all his time in right.
Harper’s offensive and defensive contributions have been enough for 4.5 fWAR and 3.9 bWAR as we reach the season’s final weekend. Both figures are very good, not great, though that’s hardly an insult. But what do you think? Should the Phillies be happy with what Harper has done in the first year of his historic deal?
(Poll link for app users)
How would you grade Harper's 2019 performance?
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B 46% (4,852)
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C 31% (3,288)
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A 13% (1,373)
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D 7% (752)
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F 4% (392)
Total votes: 10,657
MLBTR Poll: Cubs’ Biggest Roster Need
There’s still a lot of time left to dissect what could be a fascinating upcoming offseason for the Cubs. Questions abound for the organization. This time last year, it wasn’t yet clear how limited the spending capacity would be. We’ve got quite a bit left to learn before we can seriously contemplate just how the club can fill its chief needs. But with the team now officially bounced from the postseason race, it seems an opportune moment to gauge the sentiment of the MLBTR readership on the key roster issues facing the team moving forward.
Looking forward, the Cubs will dispatch Ben Zobrist, Cole Hamels, Steve Cishek, and the recently acquired Nicholas Castellanos onto the open market. Otherwise, the club controls the remainder of the roster. Barring a major trade, there isn’t a need behind the dish (Willson Contreras, Victor Caratini), in the corner infield (Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo), or at shortstop (Javier Baez). There are a variety of multi-positional players floating around, but nobody has a firm claim to second base. The team can account for most of the necessary outfield, rotation, and bullpen spots, but could clearly stand to improve in all of those areas.
There’s a basic snapshot. What do you think the biggest need is for the Cubbies? (Poll link for app users.)
What is Cubs' biggest roster need?
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Bullpen 48% (5,176)
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Rotation 37% (3,966)
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Outfield 9% (969)
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Second base 6% (602)
Total votes: 10,713
Poll: Will The Phillies Fire Gabe Kapler?
The Phillies still have a handful of games remaining, but their loss to the division-rival Nationals on Tuesday afternoon all but ended their season. Philadelphia dropped to 79-77, officially eliminating the team from playoff contention and leaving it to look ahead to the winter. The Phillies were more aggressive than any other franchise in baseball last offseason, which led to hope they’d put an end to a lengthy playoff drought as early as this year. Instead, though, they’ve now gone eight straight seasons without a berth, and second-year manager Gabe Kapler could be one of the fall guys for their most recent failings.
Just last week, general manager Matt Klentak credited Kapler for “doing a very good job,” adding that “the group is playing hard down the stretch.” But the Phillies entered the second game of Tuesday’s doubleheader mired in a stretch of five losses in six games, and the Nats outscored them 21-4 over the first three matchups of their series. That skid “speaks loudly of a dead team playing out the string,” opines NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury, who notes that owner John Middleton will have more say than Klentak in deciding Kapler’s future.
After Middleton authorized a few high-cost acquisitions last offseason, including Bryce Harper‘s historic $330MM contract, it’s possible he’ll now decide to look elsewhere in the dugout. There has been improvement this year compared to last season’s 80-82 finish, though the Phillies arguably haven’t progressed enough under Kapler. The team collapsed in the second half of last year, when it led the NL East with a 65-52 record as late as Aug. 12 before sputtering to a 15-28 mark over its final 43 contests. While this season’s squad didn’t control the division as late into the summer, it was in first place with a 38-29 record on June 11. Since then? Forty-one wins, 48 losses.
In fairness to Kapler, injury and pitching issues have played obvious roles in the demise of the 2019 Phillies. While the team wouldn’t solve those problems with a managerial change, they could nonetheless help hasten Kapler’s exit. If that happens, perhaps the Phillies will reverse course on their next managerial hire and look for an established option (Joe Girardi? Joe Maddon?) rather than a neophyte to lead their 2020 roster.
(Poll link for app users)
Will the Phillies fire Gabe Kapler?
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Yes 75% (9,295)
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No 25% (3,119)
Total votes: 12,414
Poll: Should The Mets Replace Mickey Callaway This Fall?
Mets manager Mickey Callaway has been on a warm seat for a good bit of his tenure. The temperature has gone up and down at various points, but has never fully cooled — even as GM Brodie Van Wagenen offered near-term support for the skipper. After a disappointing season featuring good-but-not-great results following significant roster investments, should the team move on?
When we asked back in June whether the Mets should dump Callaway in the middle of the season, two-thirds of respondents were in favor. The club sank further from that point but then bounced back and will likely finish the season with a winning record. But the postseason won’t happen barring a total miracle. (Current odds, per Fangraphs: 0.3%.)
It’s awfully difficult to blame Callaway entirely for the way things have gone. Injuries and lack of roster depth in key areas have hurt. Not all of the baseball operations decisions have worked out as hoped. The bullpen has been a mess beyond Callaway’s control, even if his management of it hasn’t always been optimal. He has at least held things together through an undeniably difficult stretch. And he’s already under contract for 2020 with an option for another season.
On the other hand, Callaway has now been at the helm for a pair of seasons without a postseason appearance to show for it. He wasn’t hired by Van Wagenen, for what that’s worth. There’s year-to-year improvement in terms of wins and losses, but it’s also fair to wonder whether the overall mix is one that will allow the Mets to break through in a tough division. Roster maximization is always the key, but there’s an argument that a makeover in the dugout leadership would be a sensible accompaniment for some other offseason changes — if only to instill a sense of urgency. There are some venerable former managers out there in search of new gigs, with more potentially soon to join them.
In the unlikely event that the Mets somehow sneak into a Wild Card spot, it seems fair to presume that Callaway will be safe. But if the season ends in the manner it’s likely to — nice try, but falling short — what ought the organization do? (Poll link for app users.)
Should the Mets replace Mickey Callaway this winter?
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Yes 72% (8,187)
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No 28% (3,233)
Total votes: 11,420
MLBTR Poll: Joe Maddon’s Future
To say Cubs manager Joe Maddon’s stint with the franchise has been a success would be a massive understatement. Since the Cubs hired the former Tampa Bay skipper in November 2014, they’ve amassed a sterling regular-season record of 469-335 and made the playoffs four consecutive times. Undoubtedly, though, the greatest triumph during Maddon’s days atop the Cubs’ dugout has been the World Series title they won in 2016, ending a 108-year drought for the North Siders. It’s likely Maddon will always be a beloved Cubs figure as a result of that victory and the rest of his accomplishments with the organization, but after a half-decade, the 65-year-old’s tenure may be winding down.
Although he’s in the last year of his contract, Maddon said just last month that he expects to manage the Cubs again in 2020. However, that was before a late-season collapse by Chicago, which led the NL Central race by two games over Milwaukee at the time of Maddon’s comments. Now, not only are the Cubs out of contention in the division with a week left in the season, but they’re very likely to miss the playoffs for the first time during the Maddon era. At 82-74, they’re seven games back of the archrival Cardinals in the Central and four behind the Brewers and Nationals in the wild-card hunt. With the season on the line, the Cubs have dropped six straight games, all but knocking themselves out of the race in the process.
Thanks in large part to their recent skid, the Cubs have gone a dismal 9-12 in September. It would surely be unfair to solely blame Maddon for that – they’ve dealt with injuries to the likes of Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Cole Hamels, after all, and big-money closer Craig Kimbrel can’t seem to buy a save – but the Cubs could nonetheless elect to go in a different direction at manager. Barring a last-second surge (plus a horrible finish for the Brewers or Nats), president of baseball operations Theo Epstein at least figures to seriously make over the Cubs’ roster during the offseason. Do you expect a change in the dugout to accompany that?
(Poll link for app users)
Will Joe Maddon manage the Cubs in 2020?
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No 76% (9,040)
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Yes 24% (2,921)
Total votes: 11,961
Poll: AL Cy Young Favorite
We’re obviously not going to see a repeat Cy Young winner in the American League this year. Rays left-hander Blake Snell took home the award a season ago, but his output has fallen off somewhat since 2018, and he just returned from a several-week absence anyway. There’s another Ray, right-hander Charlie Morton, who may have a case to rack up some votes this season, but it looks as if the winner will be one of his ex-Astros teammates.
Righty aces Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander have arguably outdone every other AL pitcher this year. The numbers entering Wednesday’s action bear it out, as you’ll see below…
- ERA – Verlander: 2.50 (first in the AL); Cole: 2.62 (second)
- Innings: Verlander: 212 (first); Cole: 192 1/3 (fifth)
- Strikeouts per nine: Cole: 13.66 (first); Verlander: 12.01 (second)
- K/BB ratio: Verlander: 7.08 (first); Cole: 6.49 (second)
- Wins – Verlander: 19 (first); Cole: 17 (second)
- bWAR – Verlander: 7.8 (second); Cole: 6.0 (fourth)
- fWAR – Cole: 6.5 (first); Verlander: 6.1 (tied for second)
Some of those figures have already changed tonight, as Cole is in the midst of a lights-out showing against the Rangers. As of this writing, the 29-year-old has fired six shutout innings of two-hit ball with eight strikeouts and zero walks. Cole now has exactly 300 punchouts on the season, putting him in fairly exclusive company.
Based on Cole’s enormous K total and the rest of the statistics above, it would be tough to make a case against him or Verlander. However, two other Texas-based starters – Mike Minor and Lance Lynn – have also enjoyed elite seasons. Minor ranks first in the league in pitcher bWAR, in fact, with Lynn not far behind. Despite that, the two Rangers are clearly facing long odds if they’re going to earn Cy Young honors over either of the Astros. Likewise, although Morton, Indians starter Shane Bieber and even Athletics closer Liam Hendriks have arguably placed themselves in the race with their marvelous performances, it’s improbable anyone from that trio will come out on top.
A first-time Cy Young win for Cole in 2019 would come at an especially opportune time for him, as he’s under two months from reaching free agency. Cole figures to rake in the largest contract on the open market then – perhaps a deal in excess of $200MM – and it wouldn’t exactly harm his bargaining power to collect the game’s most prestigious honor for a pitcher in the meantime. The 36-year-old Verlander has surprisingly won the Cy Young just once in what should be a Hall of Fame career. The former Tiger also grabbed the AL MVP that season (2011), and though it was eight years ago, Verlander hasn’t slowed down to any noticeable degree since.
Cole, Verlander and the rest only have a couple weeks left to make their Cy Young arguments on the mound. As things stand, which pitcher do you think is in the lead?
(Poll link for app users)
Who's the AL Cy Young front-runner?
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Justin Verlander 70% (4,622)
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Gerrit Cole 27% (1,760)
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Other (specify in comments) 3% (224)
Total votes: 6,606
Poll: NL MVP Front-Runner
We just polled the MLBTR readership regarding the state of the American League Most Valuable Player race. There’s a clear preference for Mike Trout, even if he’s going to miss the last few weeks of the season.
Injuries could well impact the state of the National League MVP voting as well. Not long before Trout hit the shelf, reigning NL player-of-the-year Christian Yelich went out of commission. Javier Baez might also have staked a claim with a big run down the stretch, but he has been out for a while.
Despite his recent injury, Yelich still has a great case to be made to repeat with the top honors. He’s pacing the National League with 7.7 fWAR and a 173 wRC+ while also carrying top-of-the-class counting stats (44 home runs, 30 steals).
The other top candidate is Dodgers stud Cody Bellinger, who has added value with the glove both at first base and in the outfield. He actually leads Yelich handily in rWAR, with an 8.2 to 7.1 advantage. Bellinger is also quite likely to end up with more dingers and is playing for the National League’s best team.
What of the National League’s leader in batting average, Anthony Rendon? The exceedingly quiet star has elevated his game in all respects this year; his .333/.417/.629 batting line has crept past Bellinger’s and Rendon has swatted a career-best 34 home runs. He also plays a mean third base. Oh, and if you want to place added weight on performance down the stretch, Rendon leads the pack in second-half fWAR and wRC+.
If there’s a dark horse, it’s … probably not one of the Braves’ several stars. The club has received big-time output from Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna, and Josh Donaldson. But none has performed quite to the individual level of the surprising Ketel Marte, who’s the fourth National League player to carry seven or more wins above replacement by measure of Fangraphs. Marte may not quite have the stature to vault past these better-known players, particularly since more of his value is tied up in his glove, but he’s sitting on an excellent .326/.387/.589 batting line (149 wRC+) with 32 homers.
Who’s your favorite? (Poll link for app users.)
Who's the NL MVP front-runner?
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Cody Bellinger 39% (3,669)
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Christian Yelich 23% (2,219)
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Anthony Rendon 19% (1,776)
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Someone from the Braves! 12% (1,134)
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Other 4% (400)
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Ketel Marte 3% (268)
Total votes: 9,466
Poll: AL MVP Front-Runner
The American League Most Valuable Player race took an unfortunate turn over the weekend when the Angels ruled transcendent center fielder Mike Trout out for the rest of the season. The out-of-contention Angels have nothing to left to play for, but the final couple weeks of the year could have helped Trout, a future Hall of Famer, bolster his MVP case. The 28-year-old has already won the award twice (arguably not enough times considering his brilliance to this point), and he looked like the favorite to take home the honors again this season before a foot injury took him down. Trout could still end up as the AL MVP, but given that he’s on a bad team and hasn’t played since Sept. 7, it’s increasingly likely a challenger will rise up and win it.
If we’re to believe Fangraphs’ version of wins above replacement, 10 American League hitters have been worth at least 5.0 fWAR this year. Trout’s easily in first place, having racked up 8.6 fWAR, while Astros third baseman Alex Bregman‘s next at 7.4. Underrated Athletics shortstop Marcus Semien (6.6) is one of three players thereafter who have bettered the 6.0 mark, with Red Sox right fielder/reigning AL MVP Mookie Betts (6.3) and shortstop Xander Bogaerts (6.2) filling out the group. Beyond them, there’s Astros outfielder George Springer, A’s third baseman Matt Chapman, Red Sox third bagger Rafael Devers, Yankees utilityman DJ LeMahieu and White Sox third baseman Yoan Moncada with 5.0 fWAR.
There are also six starting pitchers in the bunch with 5.0 or more fWAR – the Astros’ Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander, the Rangers’ Lance Lynn, the Rays’ Charlie Morton, the Indians’ Shane Bieber and the White Sox’s Lucas Giolito – for what it’s worth. However, it’s incredibly difficult for a pitcher to earn MVP honors. Verlander pulled it off back in 2011, but he was the first hurler since 1992 to do so. It’s improbable he or any other pitcher will accomplish the feat this year. Likewise, it’s difficult to imagine a player on a non-contender (Trout aside) earning the MVP this year. That may well rule out anyone from the two Sox-wearing teams.
By process of elimination, the MVP race might come down to Trout, Bregman, Semien, Springer (though it’s tough to see him winning when teammate Bregman has clearly been the more valuable player), Chapman (who’d likely lose votes to Semien) and LeMahieu.
Of course, it’s highly doubtful the voters will make the decision largely by the polarizing WAR stat, and understandably so. There will be plenty who place the most value on the dominance of Trout despite his team’s fecklessness. Others will give the nod to Bregman, who has been on an absolute tear in the season’s second half (the same goes for Semien, by the way). Meanwhile, LeMahieu has thrived as a multi-positional player in the game’s biggest market after joining the Yankees last offseason on what now looks like a bargain contract of two years and $24MM.
The Yankees and Astros are heading to the playoffs as elite teams, which could help their MVP contenders’ causes. The A’s are also likely on their way, so the same applies to their prospective MVPs. All said, it’ll be an interesting final couple weeks of the regular season as all of the above vie for the award. As of now, which player do you think should win?
(Poll link for app users)
Who's the AL MVP front-runner?
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Trout 59% (5,446)
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Bregman 19% (1,768)
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LeMahieu 15% (1,430)
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Semien 3% (314)
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Other (specify in comments) 3% (270)
Total votes: 9,228
Poll: Stephen Strasburg’s Opt-Out Decision
Nationals right-hander Stephen Strasburg is one of a few major leaguers who will have an interesting opt-out decision to make once the offseason arrives. Strasburg will still have four years and $100MM left on the extension he signed with the Nationals in 2016 then, but he has done well in 2019 to make a case for a raise. However, there are extenuating circumstances that could prevent Strasburg from taking the gamble on entering free agency over the winter.
By now, everyone who follows baseball closely knows Strasburg’s story. He’s a former No. 1 overall pick and uber-prospect who debuted with great fanfare in 2010, has dealt with myriad injuries since then, but has largely been outstanding when healthy enough to take the mound. Now, with a potential trip to the open market looming, the 31-year-old is arguably better than ever.
While Strasburg doesn’t throw as hard as he did in his younger days, it hasn’t served as a detriment to his results. He’s at full strength now, having made 30 starts and amassed 191 innings, and has logged a 3.49 ERA/3.22 FIP with 10.79 K/9 against 2.31 BB/9. Strasburg ranks fourth among qualified starters in innings, seventh in fWAR (5.4), 16th in K/BB ratio (4.67) and 31st among all pitchers in expected weighted on-base average against (.261, which isn’t far from the .270 real wOBA hitters have registered off him). Teammate Max Scherzer rightly gets the lion’s share of attention when it comes to Nats starters, but this year’s version of Strasburg has been lights-out. Previous iterations haven’t been far off, injuries notwithstanding.
Besides Astros co-ace Gerrit Cole, it’s tough to find a better starter than Strasburg who could reach the open market in a couple months. Strasburg, if he opts out, wouldn’t approach the $200MM mark, as Cole could. But Strasburg might be able to outdo the $100MM he’d leave on the table by vacating his current deal. The Boras Corporation client would obviously be taking an enormous risk by heading to free agency, though, as the market hasn’t been enamored of 30-somethings who come with qualifying offers (as Strasburg undoubtedly would) in recent years. That said, there have been over-30 pitchers who have raked in nine figures in free agency in recent years. To name just a couple prominent examples, Zack Greinke got six years and $206.5MM from the Diamondbacks before 2016, when he was set to turn 32. The Cubs gave Yu Darvish $126MM over six years going into 2018, in which he also turned 32.
The Greinke and Darvish deals haven’t worked out swimmingly for the clubs that distributed them, as the D-backs traded a still-highly effective Greinke to the Astros a month and a half ago because they wanted his money off the books. Darvish, meanwhile, has done solid work this season (he struck out 14 in his most recent start Thursday), but 2018 wasn’t a banner year. Overall, he probably hasn’t given the Cubs the type of production they envisioned upon signing him. Those are just a couple cautionary tales that could scare teams away from giving a massive amount of money to an aging Strasburg.
For Strasburg, the recent difficulties accomplished 30-plus starters Jake Arrieta and Dallas Keuchel – both with Cy Youngs on their mantles – have encountered in free agency could scare him away from opting out. Arrieta did land a three-year, $75MM guarantee from the Phillies entering 2018, but that was far less than he sought when he hit the market. Keuchel made out way worse last offseason, sitting without a job until he accepted a one-year, $13MM offer from the Braves this past June.
Of course, it’s quite possible Strasburg could exit his contract and stay with the Nationals. Longtime Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw ended last offseason with an opt-out on the two years and $65MM remaining on his pact, but the two sides quickly struck a new agreement for three years and $93MM. Perhaps the Nationals and Strasburg will come together on a similar arrangement that tacks on another year(s) and more money. In the meantime, they and Strasburg will try to win their first World Series (or at least their first playoff series) in the next couple months. After that, his opt-out choice will be a fascinating story to follow. As of now, how do you expect things to play out?
(Poll link for app users)
What do you think Stephen Strasburg will do?
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He'll keep his current deal 52% (2,567)
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He'll opt out 48% (2,386)
Total votes: 4,953