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Poll: What Last-Place AL Team Is Likeliest To Turn Its Season Around?

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With one day left in April, we’ve already seen a wide gulf emerge within the American League standings.  Three clubs (the Red Sox, Yankees, and Astros) are on pace to surpass 105 wins, while six teams are also currently on pace to win fewer than 70 games.  By comparison, only six teams in all of baseball failed to surpass the 70-win plateau in 2017.

Obviously, it’s still very early, and there’s plenty of baseball still to be played for these struggling teams.  Three teams, however, will head into May in the basement of their respective divisions, and in those cases, a slower start could be much harder to overcome.  The Rangers, Royals, and Orioles all faced rather tricky paths to contention even in the best of circumstances, and their poor April records may force them to make some hard decisions about how long they’re willing to go before considering selling pieces at the trade deadline.

Let’s check in on the three last-place teams to see which has the most potential to make April simply a “slow start” en route to a respectable or even a contending season…

Rangers (11-18): With Adrian Beltre, Elvis Andrus, and Rougned Odor all on the disabled list, Texas fans are beginning to have some unpleasant flashbacks to the team’s disastrously injury-plagued 2014 campaign.  Still, while the injury bug explains the lack of offensive production, the Rangers’ pitching situation has looked as shaky as it appeared to be heading into the season.  Other than the surprise continuation of Bartolo Colon’s late-career renaissance, it’s been mostly bad news for both the rotation and the bullpen, with Martin Perez, Matt Moore, Matt Bush, Alex Claudio, and Kevin Jepsen all getting off to particularly tough starts.

The team’s big infield trio may not all be back until June, so can the Rangers at least tread water until then?  It doesn’t help that the rest of the AL West teams are all at the .500 mark or better, though the Angels (+5), Mariners (-2), and A’s (+3) are all nothing special in terms of run differential.  (Of course, Texas is a miserable -39 in that department.)  The Rangers will need more arms to step up if they are to turn their season around, plus some internal reinforcements have already come in the form of Delino DeShields and Tony Barnette, who are both back after lengthy DL stints of their own.  Top prospect Willie Calhoun could also provide more help for the lineup, though Calhoun is off to a quiet start at Triple-A this year.

Orioles (8-20): The Orioles and Rangers share pretty similar tales of woe.  Baltimore has also been hurt by a tough division, a lack of quality starting or relief pitching, plus several key injuries — Zach Britton and Mark Trumbo have yet to play a game, while Jonathan Schoop, Tim Beckham, and Colby Rasmus are all on the DL.  Manny Machado’s individual brilliance has been tempered by a lack of hitting from almost everyone else on roster, with Chris Davis standing out as the single worst position player by fWAR (-0.6) in baseball so far this season.

Dan Duquette unofficially cited Memorial Day as the date when teams begin to evaluate where they really stand in a season, so the O’s therefore have just under a month to get on track.  That might be enough time to get at least some of the injured parties back, plus it’ll give time for Alex Cobb to hopefully start rounding into form given that the late-to-sign righty has a 13.11 ERA over his first three starts.  On paper, Baltimore has too much hitting talent to be as bad as they are at the plate, so you figure that at least some type of positive correction is in store.

Royals (7-20): The Royals held off on a full-fledged rebuild over the winter, though their decision about whether to try for another playoff run may have been made for them by their lousy April.  The Royals entered Sunday’s play with the fewest runs in the majors, as only Mike Moustakas and Jorge Soler were putting up good numbers at the plate, and some quality returns by the starting rotation have been undermined by arguably baseball’s worst bullpen.  Even with closer Kelvin Herrera still boasting a perfect 0.00 ERA through 9 2/3 innings, the road to Herrera has been plagued by potholes, as the relief corps is collectively at or near the bottom of the list in just about every major statistic.

One bright side for the Royals?  Their competition.  The AL Central has been baseball’s worst division through the first month, with the first-place Indians holding just a 14-12 record.  As bad as Kansas City has been, the Royals are still just 4.5 games back of the second-place Tigers.  Since the White Sox and Tigers are rebuilding and the Twins are struggling to recapture their 2017 form, there is some opportunity for the Royals to regain some ground if they can beat up on their division foes.

Which of the AL’s last-place squads do you think has the best chance of recovering from its shaky April? (Link for app users)

Poll: Should MLB Shorten The Baseball Season?

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Most readers have probably already caught wind of the suggestion that MLB should shave a few games off the incredibly long season. But fewer readers probably realize that it’s actually a topic that’s gained some very real momentum. In a lengthy piece on the subject, Jayson Stark of The Athletic dives into this issue, at one point revealing that the topic of a 158-game season actually made it to the “bargaining table” in the negotiations leading up to the 2011 labor agreement. In 2016, MLB actually did some extensive research on the potential effects of a 154-game season due to a suspicion that the players might bring it up, but the union apparently didn’t bring it up; they were focused on other issues.

While eight games might seem like a trivial percentage of the season, it could actually pose a significant reduction in revenue for MLB clubs. According to statista.com, the Yankees brought in about $278MM in ticket revenue during the 2017 season. A 5% reduction in games would mean losing out on nearly $14MM in ticket sales, not to mention they’d be worth 5% less in terms of a television contract.

Of course, the Yankees are an extreme example in that regard; small market clubs make much, much less on an annual basis when it comes to ticket sales. As such, it’s not surprising to learn that twenty-two MLB clubs reportedly had little or no objection to a 154 season; it seems that a vocal eight-team minority would have likely proved a holdup in negotiations.

It’s also easy to imagine that cutting player salaries would be one of the first orders of business in the event of a shortened season. After all, it’s unfair to expect ownership to pay players the same amount for playing 5% fewer games. While Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo seems to be sympathetic to the idea of making less money in order to play a more comfortable season, it seems awfully likely that there’d be some ruckus from at least some of the players. With all the recent pushback over the idea of something as simple as a pitch clock, you can bet that there’d be some loud voices where millions of dollars are concerned.

The benefits to a shorter season, though, are numerous and logically sound. Stark makes a great point when mentioning that beginning the season in the third week of April rather than the final days of March would lop off a dramatic majority of the games played in uncomfortably cold weather; weather that makes the games less enjoyable for both the players and the fans who come out to the ballpark. It’s fair to imagine that the number of injuries and illnesses increase as a result of playing in extreme cold. The number of postponements due to inclement weather also complicate the season schedule.

Concurrently, a shorter season would mean a better chance that the final games of the playoffs could conclude before cold weather sets in. Stark also suggests a longer All-Star break, as well as making all Mondays off-days. From my vantage point, it’s a bit confusing to see how all these things could be implemented with a reduction of only eight games, even if Stark does mention the idea of a few planned doubleheaders scattered throughout the season.

Perhaps one of the most important benefits to a shortened season with more days off is the health and energy of the players. Stark suggests that pitcher injuries could be reduced, which makes plenty of sense. Not only would fewer games make for fewer physically taxing stretches of baseball, but it would also allow players more time to rest and recuperate from smaller nagging injuries without putting their respective teams at a disadvantage.

On a grander scale, this kind of change could have an impact on gameplay and even roster makeup. More intermittent days off would likely allow teams to get by without a fifth starter for large stretches of the season, potentially eliminating many starting pitcher jobs around the league. It could also allow teams to feel more comfortable rolling with one fewer reliever for extended stretches, and it certainly makes sense to think that teams wouldn’t be forced to reach into their vertical depth at Triple-A for a fresh bullpen arm as often as they are now. Basically, while a shorter season could mean a more comfortable job for the players, it could also make for a game in which a small number of pitchers begin to lose their jobs in favor of bench bats or late-inning defensive replacement types.

With all this in mind, what do you think? Should MLB shorten the baseball season to 154 games, or keep things the way they are? (Poll link for app users)

Poll: How Should The Mets Handle Matt Harvey?

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A recent MLBTR poll asked whether the Mets ought to move Matt Harvey to the bullpen. As poll respondents recommended, the team elected to do just that. For many pitchers, such a move would be disappointing but not otherwise terribly momentous. In Harvey’s case, though, everything occurs against the backdrop of his often-glorious, sometimes-tumultuous history in New York. Let’s take a look at the situation before posing a somewhat different question in a follow-up poll.

There was little reason entering the season to think that Harvey would resemble the ace of old. If anything, the question was whether the Mets ought even to tender him a contract. MLBTR’s Steve Adams examined that question as a disappointing 2017 Mets campaign wound to a close. Despite Harvey’s marginal recent track record, Adams explained, it’d be hard to find a bounceback candidate with a more promising outlook for a lesser price. (Player and team ultimately settled at $5.625MM for Harvey’s final season of arbitration eligibility.)

At the time the tender decision was made, there was still some reason to believe that Harvey could yet emerge from his struggles. After all, he had just completed his first season of work after undergoing surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. A full offseason was available for Harvey to rest and build up normally, rather than rehabbing back from a procedure. And his 29th birthday would not come until just before Opening Day of 2018, putting youth on his side.

Things, clearly, have not turned out as hoped. Through 23 innings in four starts and one relief appearance, Harvey has allowed 15 earned runs on 28 hits (including four long balls) while recording 19 strikeouts and five walks.

There are some conflicting signals when you dig further. Both xFIP and SIERA grade Harvey’s output thus far at sub-4.00 levels, and his .324 BABIP-against and 66.9% strand rate could each be viewed as signals of some poor fortune. Then again, Statcast suggests Harvey has actually been somewhat lucky, as the wOBA he has allowed (.356) trails the xwOBA (.371) indicated by the quality of opponents’ contact.

More importantly, perhaps, those numbers don’t really paint a full picture of the concerns. Harvey, who once worked in the upper nineties with his fastball, has lost nearly a mile-and-a-half off his average heater just in comparison to his 2017 effort. And like last year, he’s generating swinging strikes with less than eight percent of his pitches, well off his previous career mean and well shy of league average.

The Mets neither expected nor demanded that Harvey return to being a front-of-the-rotation starter, though surely the gamble presumed there was real upside left in his arm. There’s always a downside scenario, too, of course, and that seems to be the case here. If the bet isn’t going to pay out, you have to have a backup plan. The Mets certainly did not assume that Harvey (or other talented-but-oft-injured hurlers like Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler) would pan out in 2018. The club knew it needed some additional steadiness on the staff, too, and thus added Jason Vargas. But what to do with Harvey himself?

For the time being, the former star is going to work from the bullpen, where he’ll at least be able to give some length while remaining available if a rotation need arises. The organization will no doubt prefer to bide its time before making any irrevocable decisions, and skipper Mickey Callaway says he expects Harvey will return to the rotation at some point. Still, the long-time starter’s transition to the pen does not appear to have been a smooth one to date. Harvey expressed consternation with his the idea of relief work both before and after the decision was made. And if his outburst to the media yesterday is any indication, plenty of tension remains.

The situation might look quite a bit different if we were discussing a less prominent player with a different track record with a different team. But this is the Dark Knight of Gotham. How would you handle the situation if you were Mets GM Sandy Alderson? (Link for app users.)

Poll: What Should The Mets Do With Matt Harvey?

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Since allowing just one hit across five innings of work against the Phillies in his season debut, Matt Harvey has seemingly reverted back to his 2017 form. He’s allowed at least four earned runs in each of his last three starts, lasting just five innings in two of them. While it’s a good sign that Harvey’s walk rate is down, he’s been prone to the long ball (four homers allowed so far) and hasn’t been particularly impressive in the strikeouts department (7.29 K/9).

It’s an unfortunate extension of Harvey’s recent track record. Since coming off the disabled list in September of last season, the righty sports a cataclysmic 8.72 ERA, and there aren’t any real reasons for optimism surrounding the 29-year-old’s performance. He’s struck out just 30 batters across 43 1/3 innings of work since that time, and he’s allowed at least four runs in six of his nine starts while lasting more than five innings just once. For those interested in pitcher records, Harvey is 1-6 during that time.

It’s becoming more and more clear with each outing that Harvey seems unlikely to turn things around. He was once among the games elite arms and seemed likely to earn nine figures in his then-distant free agent foray, and although a late-2013 Tommy John surgery put that in serious question, he managed to bounce back with an outstanding 4.4 fWAR campaign in 2015. 2016, however, was the start of a tailspin, and Harvey managed to pitch just 92 2/3 innings in both 2016 and 2017 with just 143 total strikeouts and 119 earned runs allowed. With this season’s terrible start, we’re almost to the point where it’s worth asking the question, “Will Harvey pitch himself out of the majors this season?”

While that seems a bit extreme, the subject of bumping Harvey from the rotation has certainly been broached. Jason Vargas is set to return to the rotation soon, and Harvey’s the obvious candidate to give up his spot if performance is the determining factor. Reporters recently asked Harvey if he’d give his consent to be optioned to the minors (he can’t be optioned without his permission due to his five-year MLB tenure), but he wouldn’t comment on the subject.

A more likely scenario would be for the 14-5 Mets to make Harvey a reliever. For his part, Harvey isn’t thinking about a move to a bullpen, and recently told reporters that he considers himself a starting pitcher. In reality, what Harvey considers himself to be doesn’t really matter if he can’t get outs, so the Mets will have a big decision in the impending days.

Many struggling starters have benefitted greatly from a move to the bullpen, and it doesn’t seem likely at this point that Harvey will revive his career as a starter. However, a miraculous return to his 2013/2015 form would provide the Mets with a huge boost to their seemingly strong playoff chances. What do you think New York should do in regards to their former ace? (Poll link for app users)

 

Poll: When Should The Braves Promote Ronald Acuna?

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The topic of whether top prospect Ronald Acuna should be in the Majors or in Triple-A is one of the most oft-discussed topics certainly among Braves fans but also among fans throughout the league. The 20-year-old, after all, has been widely billed as a phenom in the waiting and topped the majority of prospect rankings from major outlets this offseason (with the occasional exception of Shohei Ohtani, when he was deemed eligible for such lists).

Ronald Acuna | Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Acuna opened the 2017 season in Class-A Advanced and skyrocketed to Triple-A by season’s end. The Venezuelan-born slugger didn’t just move up the ladder, though; his numbers actually improved upon each promotion, culminating with a .344/.393/.548 line in Triple-A.

Overall, Acuna slashed .325/.374/.522 with 21 homers, 31 doubles, eight triples and 44 steals across three minor league levels in 2017 — and he did so all before turning 20 years of age this past December. Even before reading any of the many glowing scouting reports on Acuna, it’s abundantly clear that he’s a special talent. Teenagers simply don’t perform that well in pro ball.

Entering the season, the thought was that the Braves, like many teams do with elite prospects, would take advantage of Major League Baseball’s service time infrastructure and hold Acuna in the minors long enough to delay his free agency by a year. Doing so would only require him to be in Gwinnett until mid-April. While some may bristle at the notion, it’s hard to argue, from a front-office standpoint, that the extra two weeks of games in 2018 are worth sacrificing Acuna’s entire 2024 season — his age-27 campaign. Keeping Acuna in the minors for those couple of weeks makes perfect sense from a long-term view.

That date has come and gone, however, meaning the Braves can bring their vaunted wunderkind to the Majors at any point, knowing he’ll be controlled through 2024. Bringing him up now would mean allowing him to reach arbitration four times as a Super Two player rather than the standard three times, but that’s of relatively minimal consequence — at least when juxtaposed with the notion of losing an entire year of club control over his prime.

But although Acuna dominated Grapefruit League play in Spring Training (.432/.519/.727), that hasn’t been the case in the regular season. It’s only nine games and 41 plate appearances, of course, but Acuna is hitting .139/.244/.167 in Triple-A. After striking out at a 19.8 percent clip last season, he’s already whiffed 14 times in 41 plate appearances (34.1 percent).

None of that does anything to change the perception that Acuna is a star in the making, but it stands to reason that the Braves may not relish the idea of taking a struggling 20-year-old and bringing him to the big leagues to face even tougher competition. It doesn’t help that Preston Tucker has filled in capably at the big league level. Even though the 27-year-old likely isn’t a long-term piece, and there’s plenty of evidence to suggest that his start isn’t sustainable, the fact remains that the Braves have gotten some production out of Acuna’s would-be spot in the lineup.

That, of course, isn’t deemed a good enough reason for Acuna to be in the minors for many. Narratives on his brief minor league struggles will suggest that he’s pressing to earn a promotion or not engaged enough by the lack of competition. Atlanta skipper Brian Snitker went with the similarly nebulous explanation that Acuna is “trying too hard” at the moment (link via MLB.com’s Mark Bowman). It’s understandable if Braves fans want to see him up at all costs; it’s been a lengthy rebuilding process down in Georgia, and Acuna’s arrival could in many ways mark a move back toward contention. It’s also true that attendance figures would likely spike, at least in the short term, the moment that Acuna is called upon for his highly anticipated debut. And if he’s anything close to the player that most believe he will be, there’s also an argument to be made that Acuna ought to be added to a ballclub that has played rather well and may yet be a fringe postseason contender.

All of those factors enter into the calculus of when Acuna will be brought to the big leagues. It’s a decision the Atlanta front office won’t make lightly, as the last thing first-year GM Alex Anthopoulos and his staff want to do is have to demote Acuna back to Gwinnett if he struggles out of the gate. At the same time, Anthopoulos & Co. are no doubt cognizant of the fanbase’s desire to see Acuna attack Major League pitching and of the manner in which a strong arrival on the scene would invigorate the Atlanta faithful.

(Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users.)


Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Projecting Shohei Ohtani’s Rookie Season

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This is an especially exciting day for baseball because it marks the first time Angels righty-throwing uber-prospect Shohei Ohtani will start a meaningful major league game as a pitcher. We already got a glimpse of the 23-year-old Ohtani as a hitter on Opening Day, when the Angels slotted him in at DH and the lefty-swinger went 1 for 5 with a single in a loss to Oakland. He’ll turn around Sunday and face the Athletics’ lineup, which features feared sluggers in Khris Davis and Matt Olson.

Ohtani drew Babe Ruth comparisons in his homeland because of his two-way ability, leading nearly every MLB team to vie for his services in free agency over the winter. Although, in his first action with the Angels during the spring, Ohtani was more Brooks Kieschnick than Ruth. On the offensive end, Ohtani went just 4 of 32 with no extra-base hits, 10 walks and three strikeouts. As a pitcher, he gave up eight earned runs on nine hits and two walks, with five strikeouts, during a pair of major league spring training starts.

Needless to say, it was an ugly exhibiton showing for Ohtani, though that’s not necessarily indicative of what’s to come. Ohtani’s adjusting to both a new country and the best baseball league in the world, after all, and he didn’t garner so much pre-major league hype for no reason.

As part of an excellent piece he wrote last May, MLBTR contributor Chuck Wasserstrom spoke with several scouts regarding Ohtani, and the consensus was that he’d parlay his impressive repertoire – including a 95 to 100 mph fastball, a splitter and multiple breaking pitches – into a career as a mid- to front-of-the-rotation starter in the majors. The scouts were less confident in Ohtani’s offense, though they nonetheless believed a year ago that he could serve as a quality big league hitter. He was certainly a threat with the bat in Japan, where he slashed .286/.358/.500 in 1,170 plate appearances.

As Ohtani embarks on his first season with the Angels, the Steamer projection system is calling for a .262/.339/.463 batting line across 249 PAs. That would make for a 116 wRC+, the same figure Joe Mauer posted in 2017 and just above the mark Christian Yelich put up. The Angels would likely be ecstatic with that type of production from the part-time DH, and it’s fair to say they’d also be on board with Steamer’s projection for Ohtani the pitcher. He’s forecast for 145 innings (24 starts) of 3.54 ERA/3.60 FIP ball with 11.17 K/9 and 3.62 BB/9. That output would be worth 3.1 fWAR, matching the 2017 totals of Gerrit Cole, Drew Pomeranz and Mike Leake. All said, if Ohtani were to meet Steamer’s two-way projection, he’d rack up 3.8 fWAR, which would likely put him in the running for American League Rookie of the Year and perhaps help the Halos break their three-year playoff drought.

We’ll begin finding out Sunday what Ohtani will bring as a big league pitcher, but what do you expect from him? Will Ohtani live up to the hype on either end as a rookie? Or will his subpar spring drag into the regular season? Weigh in below (poll links for app users)…

MLBTR Poll: When Will Greg Holland Sign?

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We’ve already seen most of the backlog of high-profile free agents clear out late in camp. But one familiar name remains available: closer Greg Holland, whom we profiled in full back in January. Despite some uncertainties, he was and is quite an accomplished reliever who seemed worthy of a rather large and lengthy contract.

Though it seemed at one point he’d return to the Rockies, and reportedly had a $50MM-or-so offer on the table, Holland’s market has gone dark of late. Over the past month or so, teams such as the Braves, Diamondbacks, Cardinals, and Rangers have been tied loosely to Holland. The Cards seem to be the most obvious match on paper, as a contender with a fairly hefty budget and an unresolved closing situation. But they haven’t yet emerged as a strong pursuer.

On the whole, there’s simply no indication that any of those organizations, or any others, are hot after the veteran righty — let alone willing to make him a significant, multi-year commitment. True, it’s still anyone’s guess what kind of contract Holland will secure. (Remember that Alex Cobb did still score a long-term pact after the similarly placed Lance Lynn did not.)  But the smart money may now be on some kind of creative, one or two-year arrangement not unlike the one he signed last winter when coming off of Tommy John surgery.

Rather than thinking about what Holland will get, though, today’s poll will focus on when he’ll finally put pen to paper.

At this point, there’s no chance that Holland will be on an Opening Day roster. Presumably, though, he’s pitching on his own and wouldn’t require a terribly lengthy window to reach MLB readiness. Perhaps, then, it’s still sensible to believe that he’ll come to agreement in relatively short order and be prepared to pitch for nearly all of the coming season.

In theory, a signing could come in the next few days. Waiting until after the start of the season to sign once was once a strategically meaningful consideration, but is not of ongoing consequence now that repeat qualifying offers have been outlawed as part of the new CBA’s tweaks to the QO system.

Of course, waiting until the season is underway might still hold some appeal for other reasons. There could certainly be some merit to waiting to see how closer situations shape up around the game. Turnover in the ninth inning is hardly a new thing, but it’s not often that a ready-made solution is standing by to be signed whenever the need arises. Organizations that face early-season crises, whether due to injury or performance, would then have an intriguing alternative in Holland.

The question, then, would become whether Holland will wait until after the June draft to ink a new contract. That was the approach taken by fellow Scott Boras clients Kendrys Morales and Stephen Drew, who agreed to partial-season deals in 2014 after the draft compensation attached to their signings had dissipated. As a high-leverage reliever, Holland might be even better situated for this approach. Though he wouldn’t be marketing a full season of output, he might still earn well since he’d be valued most for his contributions down the stretch and into a hypothetical postseason run.

So, when do you think Holland will end up finally choosing his new club? (Link for app users.)

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Alex Cobb Signing

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After watching a variety of quality free agents settle for shorter and less-lucrative contracts than expected — including established veteran starter Lance Lynn — it seemed that right-hander Alex Cobb would likewise need to take what he could get and plan to return to the open market in the near future in search of a heftier pact. Instead, he struck a surprising four-year, $57MM deal yesterday with the Orioles.

Of course, that contract wouldn’t have seemed out of line when the offseason got underway. MLBTR tabbed Cobb the 11th-best free agent available and predicted he’d secure a four-year contract with a $48MM guarantee — not far off from where he ultimately landed. But we also guessed four and $56MM for Lynn, who got just $12MM from the Twins despite signing a few weeks before Cobb and carrying a broadly similar overall profile in terms of age and track record. And when we reexamined the market before Lynn’s signing, we downgraded expectations for both hurlers.

Needless to say, this winter’s market has been something of a moving target. At the end of the day, though, Cobb will land a sizable but generally market-rate deal with an organization that came into the winter as perhaps the most pitching-needy would-be contender in baseball. If the deal is finalized, Cobb will join Andrew Cashner and the re-signed Chris Tillman as free-agent additions to a staff that already featured Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman.

There are still questions up and down that five-man crew, but the overall talent base on the pitching staff is quite a bit higher now than at the outset of the offseason. One can argue that the O’s ought not to have made a commitment of this magnitude entering the organization’s final season of control over Manny Machado and Adam Jones. On the other hand, it’s hard to condemn a club for spending to win, especially when so many others are focusing on the future. And while the Cobb contract hardly seems a bargain, it’s roughly in range of his market value and arguably delivers some upside given Cobb’s history as a top-of-the-rotation presence. He was, after all, one of the most effective starters in the AL East in 2013-14 and delivered 179 1/3 innings of 3.66 ERA pitching in 2017.

How would you grade the move from the team’s perspective? (Link for app users.)

Poll: Grading the Jose Altuve Extension

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Yesterday, it was reported that the Astros have agreed to a five-year, $151MM extension with Jose Altuve that’ll keep him in Houston through his age-34 season. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd mentioned yesterday, the deal will be by far the largest extension ever given to a second baseman, handily topping the $110MM given to Dustin Pedroia by the Red Sox in 2013.

It’s also just the sixth deal in MLB history that comes with an average annual value greater than $30MM. A win above replacement is widely believed to be worth around $8MM, so it seems likely that Altuve could still provide the 4-ish WAR per year necessary to provide the Astros with surplus value on this new deal. Indeed, the reigning AL MVP and three-time batting champ has been worth 14.3 fWAR across the past two seasons alone.

Of course, it’s not a given that Houston’s star second baseman can maintain that level of production through the age of 34. Although his strongest and most notable skill is his penchant for making good contact (with an astonishingly low swinging strike rate) and racking up hits, a large part of his value is tied up in his baserunning. Though last season Altuve stole 32 bases and managed a .339 BABIP on grounders, history says that his speed isn’t likely to stick around past age 30, at least not to that level.

Even as his speed starts to go, however, contact ability and plate discipline (Altuve carries an incredible 10.7% career strikeout rate) are skills that typically tend to age well. And there’s something to be said for the Astros keeping the face of their franchise around through 2024.

It’s not unreasonable to think that Altuve could have earned a larger guarantee if he’d waited to hit the free agent market following the 2019 season. But as with his first extension with the Astros, he’ll essentially sacrifice earnings upside for added financial security… and a whole lot of it, too. The contract ranks as the 31st-largest guarantee in MLB history. He’s now guaranteed life-changing money, with a chance to earn even more when he hits the free agent market again six and a half years from now.

At this point, we want to know your opinion. What do you think of the second Altuve deal from the Astros’ perspective? (Poll link for app users)

What about from Altuve’s perspective? (Poll link for app users)

Poll: $6.5MM Contracts

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As Opening Day draws closer, we’re beginning to see the unfortunate penalties for players who overestimated their markets at the offseason’s outset. A number of our top-50-ranked free agents have fallen well short of the expectations we had for them, including three players ranked in our top five (Masahiro Tanaka excluded) who’ve been guaranteed at least $35MM less than we predicted.

That group includes Mike Moustakas, who so far seems to be the abnormal offseason’s biggest victim. We thought “Moose” would receive a guarantee in the $85MM range, but he ended up settling for a contract with the Royals that’ll pay him just $6.5MM, including a buyout of a mutual option for 2019. Logan Morrison and Jonathan Lucroy have also signed deals that guarantee them that exact same amount, despite the fact that they were widely expected to earn far more money. It should be noted that Moustakas has $2.2MM in available incentives in 2018 based on plate appearances, while Morrison can earn an extra $1.5 MM in similar fashion and can increase the base value of his 2019 option (or even cause it to vest) based on his 2018 plate appearances. However, these are excruciatingly small consolation prizes compared to the money they hoped to earn at the start of the winter.

The biggest subject of the offseason of course, has been why it’s been so unusual. But one of the more obvious answers is that the league-wide home run surge has likely resulted in a league-wide devaluation of power. That would certainly explain cooler-than-expected demand for players like Moustakas and Morrison, both of whom slugged 38 homers last season but had notable flaws elsewhere in their game. That Lucroy’s power mysteriously evaporated entirely might have contributed to the evaporation of the market for his services.

Regardless, these players are all likely to provide excess value on their respective contracts. bWAR and fWAR generally agree on their values in relation to replacement level last season; Moustakas was worth somewhere around 2 WAR, Morrison close to 3.5 WAR, and Lucroy about 1 WAR. And even though Lucroy rated the least valuable of the three, it’s worth noting that he plays a premium position and been an immensely valuable player in the past (both offensively and defensively). Even a modest bounceback from the outgoing Rockies catcher could result in a solid season for the A’s.

Below are the Steamer and ZiPS projections for these players, taken from Fangraphs.com. As with any projections, they should be taken with a grain of salt.

Lucroy:
Steamer: .273/.347/.427, 11.8 Defense Rating, 2.9 fWAR
ZiPS: .298/.365/.449, 3.6 Defense Rating, 1.7 fWAR

Moustakas:
Steamer: .268/.328/.494, 2.1 Defense Rating, 2.7 fWAR
ZiPS: .267/.318/.485, 1.5 Defense Rating, 1.5 fWAR

Morrison:
Steamer: .249/.340/.461, -11.6 Defense Rating, 0.7 fWAR
ZiPS: .255/.345/.477, -10.8 Defense Rating, 1.9 fWAR

Who do you think will provide the most value on his $6.5MM contract? Here’s a poll link for app users.

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