By Tim Dierkes | at
In September, I named Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, C.C. Sabathia as locks for $100MM+, and Jose Reyes, C.J. Wilson, and Yu Darvish as candidates. The majority of MLBTR readers polled (44%) thought only those three locks would receive $100MM+. Less than 5% of you thought all six would.
With word today that the Marlins' opening bid for Reyes was $90MM over six years, $100MM+ seems more plausible for the shortstop. Let's see what the MLBTR electorate is thinking.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Diamondbacks lefty Joe Saunders is a non-tender candidate, based on comments GM Kevin Towers made to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Towers explained his thought process toward the 30-year-old:
"He certainly logs innings, which is good. A veteran with experience. A good guy. Fits in well with our club. We like him. A deciding factor will be how much confidence do we have with the younger players in our system."
Every rotation needs innings guys, and this year Saunders tallied 215 including a playoff start. Throw in a 3.69 ERA and how could the D'Backs be thinking about cutting Saunders for no return?
First there's the price tag, which we project at a hefty $8.7MM. That'd represent a $3.2MM raise as Saunders enters his last season before free agency. Then there's that ERA, which doesn't seem representative of Saunders' skills. His SIERAs have consistently been in the 4.70 range. Saunders is a hittable, low-strikeout pitcher who can be prone to the longball. Finally there's Arizona's depth; they might have young starters who can provide similar performance for the league minimum, if not the innings.
Trading or non-tendering Saunders would greatly add to the D'Backs' payroll flexibility, though they don't have huge needs. Would at least one team feel that Saunders is worth $8-9MM on a one-year deal, and also give up a minor leaguer for him? I find it unlikely. Saunders is similar to a healthy Jon Garland, and the open market repeatedly valued Garland close to $5MM. Only four free agents reached 200 innings this year, and C.C. Sabathia, C.J. Wilson, Mark Buehrle, and Hiroki Kuroda will either be expensive or picky about where they sign. However, innings alone don't get a free agent an $8MM+ payday, as we saw with Garland and Rodrigo Lopez last year. Let's hear your thoughts on Saunders in the poll below.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Most statistics say Phillies closer Ryan Madson had a better 2011 than Padres stopper Heath Bell. Madson is three years younger, but Bell has tallied three consecutive 40-save seasons. Both righties are Type A free agents, and guessing their contracts is an interesting exercise.
In the last three years, Madson has increased his strikeout rate to more than a batter per inning while maintaining strong walk and groundball rates. He had a reputation as someone who was better off in the eighth than the ninth inning heading into this year, but Madson silenced those critics by converting 32 of 34 opportunities once pressed into duty. He's represented by Scott Boras, and will find a three-year deal with ease. No free agent reliever has gotten a four-year deal since Francisco Cordero and Scott Linebrink four years ago, but I think Madson has a shot.
Bell experienced a marked decline in strikeout rate this year, showing signs of his old rate only in September. He still limited hits and home runs and converted 43 of 48 save opportunities. Bell wants and expects to remain in San Diego, saying in August that he'd accept arbitration if the Padres offer. Padres owner Jeff Moorad said one year was preferable to the team in some ways. It was reported later that month that the Padres offered a two-year, $14MM deal while Bell was seeking $27-30MM over three years. Bell is represented by ACES, an agency known for getting strong multiyear deals for veteran free agents.
For the sake of argument, let's say both relievers reach the open market. That's not hard to picture with Madson, who will certainly cost a draft pick to sign. For Bell to reach the open market, the Padres would probably have to decline to offer him arbitration. So in this scenario Madson costs a draft pick to sign and Bell does not. Working under these assumptions, which reliever gets a bigger overall contract, Madson or Bell?
By Mike Axisa | at
The Yankees season came to an end on Thursday night, and along with it may have come the end of Jorge Posada’s career. Posada’s four-year, $52.4MM contract expires after the season, and so far the only team he’s ever played for has shown little interest in re-signing him.
Although he hit a career worst .235/.315/.398 with 14 homers in 2011, Posada was the team’s best hitter in the postseason, when he picked up six hits and four walks in the five games against the Tigers (.429/.570/571). He was in the lineup all five games because Detroit used four right-handed starters, and the switch-hitter actually handled righties very well this year (.269/.348/.466). It was lefties that gave him trouble (.092/.169/.108).
Despite seeing his playing time dwindle throughout the summer, Posada said in August that he wants to keep playing beyond this year. The Yankees used him almost exclusively at DH this summer, in part because his defensive skills behind the plate have eroded, but also because of long-term concerns about head injuries. Posada did appear in 14 games at first base in 2011 (eleven starts).
As always, the free agent market is flooded with one-dimensional DH types. Posada’s pedigree is on par with anyone’s, but teams have been shying away from overpaying for name value in recent years. His market may not be as robust as he may like, and may even be non-existent.
By Tim Dierkes | at
The prevailing opinion is that Yankees ace C.C. Sabathia will opt out of the remaining four years and $92MM remaining on his contract, since he could easily get more money or years. Bill Madden of the New York Daily News wonders if this will result in the Yankees making another Alex Rodriguez-like overpay, committing at least $125MM over five years in total.
On the high end, though, Sabathia could attempt to top the guarantee he received three years ago: $161MM over seven years. Since that offseason, Sabathia has added three 230+ inning seasons to his resume, never posting an ERA over 3.37 in a season. He's still only 31 years old. Last winter Cliff Lee was 32 upon signing a five-year, $120MM deal with the Phillies. At the time, we heard that Lee turned down offers guaranteeing $148MM over seven years from the Yankees and $138MM over six years (including heavy deferrals) from the Rangers.
There's more money in the game than there was three years ago, and Sabathia's resume is at least as strong as Lee's was. Sabathia won't be able to match the 2.13 postseason ERA Lee carried into that offseason, but with a 3.47 mark in ten Yankees postseason starts C.C. hasn't been bad. Sabathia's postseason work outside of '09 has been subpar, but I'm not sure that will affect the free agent bidding. I see Sabathia's ceiling as Lee's $24MM salary over another seven-year term, which would be a new record for a pitcher at $168MM. As with Lee, that seventh year will probably be a sticking point for all involved teams. Let's hear what you think about the total dollars in today's poll.
By Ben Nicholson-Smith | at
The Yankees and Rays combined to make one minor trade this season, but the other six playoff teams were active on the trade market in 2011. I recapped each team's in-season trades last week; here are some highlights (production with new team in parentheses):
Now that you've considered the trades, it's time to vote.
By Tim Dierkes | at
It's always interesting to see what MLBTR readers think in our polls, especially with thousands of votes coming in. Looking through four February 2011 polls, how have you done?
By Tim Dierkes | at
By my count, seventeen $100MM+ contracts have been signed in free agency, making an exception to include the $103MM commitment required by the Red Sox for Daisuke Matsuzaka. Here's the breakdown for recent offseasons:
For the 2011-12 offseason, will we see a return to the crazy money of 2006-07? We've got a trio of $100MM locks with Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and Sabathia. As with the better $100MM contracts in baseball history, these three are current superstars. However, three additional players could tip the scales and give us as many as six $100MM deals this winter: Jose Reyes, C.J. Wilson, and Yu Darvish.
Reyes and Wilson may fall short – I could certainly see them in the $90MM range. With Darvish it's more a question of whether he's posted, because five years later I do think he'd match or exceed the Dice-K expenditure.
It's your turn: out of Pujols, Fielder, Sabathia, Reyes, Wilson, and Darvish, how many $100MM+ expenditures do you expect for the 2011-12 offseason?
By Zachary Links | at
This morning, the Pirates announced that they extended GM Neal Huntington's contract through 2014 with a club option for 2015. In his four years on the job, the Bucs' farm system has gotten an infusion of talent and the club has shown that they are willing to spend on the draft. Most recently, the Pirates gave sizeable deals right-hander Gerrit Cole and outfielder Josh Bell. Pittsburgh also saw success on the major league level as they briefly sat atop the NL Central in late July before a slide in August.
While it appears that the club is headed in the right direction, the Pirates' record in three full seasons under Huntington's watch has been 186-299. Unless they practically run the table to close out the season, this year will mark the team's 19th consecutive losing campaign.
All things considered, do you agree with the Pirates three-year extension of Huntington's contract?
By Ben Nicholson-Smith | at
The Reds, Rockies, White Sox, Twins and Athletics were all expected to contend for the postseason this year, but those teams are all at least nine games out of a playoff berth at this point. It’s safe to say they’re among baseball’s most disappointing teams, but they’re not the only clubs that have fallen short of expectations.
The Marlins expected more from Josh Johnson and Hanley Ramirez, who are both on the 60-day DL. The Astros are heading for the first 100-loss season in the history of their franchise and the Cubs and Dodgers aren’t contending despite having two of the game's biggest payrolls.
To one extent or another, each one of those teams has disappointed. Which one has been the biggest disappointment of all?
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