MLBTR Polls

A few weeks ago, we looked back at vesting options from over the last three years and found that just 29% of them have been triggered.  The requirements for an option year to vest often seem attainable when the contract is signed, but either injuries or simply age can get in the way of those plans.  When looking at the players who have 2014 options tied to their 2013 performance, it seems like a lot of them could be eligible for the open market next winter.

The Orioles' Wilson Betemit needs 324 plate appearances to reach a combined 700 between 2012 and '13, but the emergence of Manny Machado may cut into his playing time.  Lance Berkman can cash in on a $13MM salary for 2014 with 550 plate appearances, but he'll obviously need his knee to hold up in Texas order to approach that mark.  Jamey Carroll can guarantee a $2MM salary for 2014 by reaching 401 plate appearances, a mark that he has comfortably surpassed in each of the last two seasons.  Roy Halladay has to tally up a jaw-dropping 259 innings to guarantee an extra year at $20MM, but it should be noted that he came close to that number just three years ago.  Barry Zito has an easier path to riches as he needs 200 innings on the mound for his $18MM option to vest.  Johan Santana could be back in Queens for $25MM if he tallies 215 innings or wins the Cy Young.  The former is obviously more realistic but that is still a lofty goal for him given his injury troubles.

It's time to place your bets.  Which of these options do you think will vest for 2014?

Nine-figure contracts are becoming more commonplace in baseball and yet teams still can't buy certainty, no matter how large the investment.  For every Derek Jeter, Manny Ramirez or Albert Pujols (on his original seven-year, $100MM deal with St. Louis) who more than lived up their contracts, there's a Mike Hampton, Vernon Wells or Johan Santana whose huge salaries became an albatross on their teams' payroll.

This offseason saw five new members join the $100MM club…

• Zack Greinke signed the offseason's biggest free agent contract, a six-year, $147MM deal with the Dodgers.
• Despite some concerns about his age, injury history and off-the-field issues, Josh Hamilton received a five-year, $125MM contract from the Angels.
• The Mets kept their captain in the fold by signing David Wright to a seven-year, $122MM extension.
• More surprisingly, the Rays similarly locked up their franchise third baseman by exercising their last three option years on Evan Longoria's contract and adding six more years to the deal, making it a total of nine years and $136MM.
• Felix Hernandez signed the largest contract ever given to a pitcher, agreeing to a seven-year, $175MM extension with the Mariners.

It's an intriguing collection of both pitchers and position players of different ages and stages of their career.  It's also quite the mix of win-now and semi-rebuilding teams in big, medium and small markets taking the risk on these massive contracts.  It's also fair to say that even if a player doesn't live up his salary over the entire length (or even a year or two) of a $100MM+ contract, a team might still consider it a good investment if they win a World Series or two over the course of the deal — call it the Barry Zito loophole.  It's hard to look five or ten years into the future but all things considered, which of these five deals stands the best chance of being looked back on as a "win" by the team in question? 

Most teams re-build over the course of multiple years, but it’s possible for teams to improve dramatically from one season to the next. The Orioles and Athletics increased their win totals by at least 20 games from 2011 to 2012, surprising many on their way to berths in the American League playoffs. One year later, it’s time for some of last year’s worst teams to dream about contending.

Seven teams won fewer than 70 games in 2012, the Marlins, Cubs, Astros, Rockies, Red Sox, Indians and Twins. While clubs like the Marlins and Astros are expected to continue struggling at the MLB level, other teams, like the Cubs, Red Sox and Indians, made aggressive moves during the offseason. Which club has the best chance of rebounding from a disappointing 2012 showing and contending for the postseason in 2013?

Two years ago nine teams reached the 90-win plateau: the Tigers, Brewers, Rangers, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Rays, Yankees, Red Sox and Cardinals. Just three of those teams repeated as 90-game winners in 2012 and just four of them made the postseason. To put it mildly, winning 90 games multiple seasons in a row is really difficult.

Once again there were nine 90-win teams in 2012: the Yankees, Orioles, Rays, Athletics, Rangers, Nationals, Braves, Reds and Giants. Chances are some of these teams will regress in 2013. Sustained success requires shrewd moves and good health, an elusive combination for many organizations. Which of these 2012 contenders is most likely to struggle in 2013?

With the start of Spring Training mere days away, teams are close to having their rosters in place that they plan to take to either Florida or Arizona for the next month and a half. Clubs have spent the past few months bringing in new players through free agency and trade in hopes of putting together a squad worthy of playing meaningful baseball come October.

While many teams added a key pitcher or slugger to man the hot corner, others failed to replace departing players or make necessary upgrades around the diamond. Merely re-signing a player or two may not have been enough when teams like the Blue Jays and Dodgers made multiple additions to their respective rosters over the course of the winter. The question becomes which team has had the most disappointing offseason thus far.