As the Mets have now managed to check off their most pressing needs at fairly reasonable prices, some attention has turned to the question whether the organization might now go on to spend on a starter. GM Sandy Alderson noted that “some opportunities arose for us that probably would not have been expected right after the end of the World Series,” as James Wagner of the New York Times reports. Given the noted health questions for the talented Mets pitching staff, the thinking goes, perhaps the team will look to score some rotation value and thrust itself into clear contention status. To this point, though, the Mets “have yet to engage in meaningful discussions” with free agent hurlers Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). Rather, the focus seems still to be on finding some pitching depth.
Mets Rumors
Zack Wheeler Defeats Mets In Arbitration
Mets righty Zack Wheeler has won his arbitration case against the team, according to Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com (via Twitter). Wheeler, a client of Jet Sports Management, will earn the $1.9MM he requested rather than the $1.5MM figure the team sought.
Obviously, the arbitration panel’s decision won’t have a drastic impact on the New York balance sheet for the coming season. And it won’t mean much for the future, either, as Wheeler only has one additional season of arbitration eligibility remaining.
Still, this is a relatively substantial victory — certainly, from Wheeler’s perspective but also for a union that’s currently engaged in a larger rhetorical battle as the free agent market limps along. As MLBTR’s 2018 MLB Arbitration Tracker shows, the players have thus far taken seven of ten arbitration cases, with thirteen still left to be decided.
Wheeler, 27, returned from a long Tommy John layoff to make 17 MLB starts last year. He still has a ways to go, though, to regain his former trajectory, as he ended the year with a 5.21 ERA and 8.4 K/9 against 4.2 BB/9 over 86 1/3 frames.
Mets To Designate Matt Reynolds For Assignment
The Mets have designated infielder Matt Reynolds for assignment in order to clear a spot on the roster for newly signed Todd Frazier, tweets Anthony DiComo of MLB.com.
The 27-year-old Reynolds (not to be confused with the veteran lefty reliever of the same name) has appeared in parts of two seasons for the Mets, hitting a combined .228/.300/.351 with four homers in 226 plate appearances. While he’s never provided much value with the bat, he’s provided some defensive versatility by appearing at all four infield positions and in both outfield corners (with the bulk of his work coming at third base and shortstop).
Reynolds has a much better track record in Triple-A, albeit in a hitter-friendly environment (Las Vegas / the Pacific Coast League). Through 1234 PAs in Triple-A, Reynolds has slashed .289/.348/.419 — including an impressive .320/.396/.484 line this past season in limited action (144 PAs).
Mets Sign Todd Frazier
WEDNESDAY: The Mets have announced the deal.
TUESDAY: Frazier will earn $8MM in 2018 and $9MM in 2019, Rosenthal tweets.
MONDAY:The Mets have struck a two-year deal with third baseman Todd Frazier, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). If he passes a physical, Frazier will receive a $17MM guarantee. The deal includes a $500K assignment bonus in the event that Frazier is traded, Jim Bowden of The Athletic tweets. Frazier is represented by Creative Artists Agency.
MLBTR predicted this match, but expected the veteran to take home a significantly bigger contract (three years and $33MM). The market for third basemen certainly hasn’t developed as the players might have hoped. Long-time shortstop Zack Cozart moved to the hot corner upon joining the Angels on a three-year, $39MM deal. The Giants filled their own need by acquiring Evan Longoria via trade. The Yankees have an ongoing opening but little to spend if they are to stay beneath the luxury tax line.
That situation had left Frazier, Mike Moustakas, and others without as much interest as had been anticipated. Indeed, in this case, it seems that some developments had to occur before the match could come together. Mets infielder Asdrubal Cabrera had seemingly been set to move to third. But he indicated recently he’d actually prefer to move to second base, leading GM Sandy Alderson to note that the flexibility might open up some new avenues for the organization.
New York held an obvious draw for Frazier, a New Jersey native who got a taste of playing near his home town last year with the Yankees. As Jon Heyman of Fan Rag notes on Twitter, that geographic preference seemingly played a role in the agreement that has now come together. It may have helped the Mets land a solid player at a reasonable price.
[RELATED: Updated Mets Depth Chart]
On the one hand, Frazier has not shown of late the kind of well-above-average offensive output he did at his peak with the Reds. At his best, Frazier produced about twenty percent more offense than the average hitter, with significant home run output and even some value on the basepaths offsetting subpar on-base abilities.
Frazier has been unable to produce both significant power and a useful OBP over the past two seasons. In 2016, he tallied forty long balls but only a .302 on-base mark. Last season, he rode a personal-best 14.4% walk rate (and personal-low 9.3% swinging-strike rate) to a .344 OBP but managed only 27 dingers and a .428 slugging percentage. While Frazier still generated a strong .215 isolated slugging mark, his batting average (.213) and batting average on balls in play (.226) remained at the sorts of low levels he has sported in recent campaigns. (For what it’s worth, there may well be at least some poor fortune in Frazier’s lowly BABIP; he carried a .352 xwOBA that lagged his .340 wOBA in 2017.)
Even if the Mets can anticipate only slightly above-average offensive work from Frazier, the deal holds plenty of promise. He has long graded as a quality performer with the glove and turned in one of his best-ever seasons in 2017. Both DRS (+10) and UZR (+6.7) credited him with saving plenty of runs as a full-time player at third base. Frazier also has an excellent track record of durability, having suited up for an average of 154 games annually since the start of 2013.
As an above-average regular for each of the past six seasons, Frazier surely anticipated a bigger contract entering the winter. At the same time, his earning power was always limited by his age. The somewhat late-blooming slugger will turn 32 years of age in a week. With teams seemingly more hesitant than ever to lock in commitments to aging players, and the league as a whole hewing younger, Frazier always seemed unlikely to drive a massive bidding war.
Still, this contract seems likely to deliver the Mets some quality infield value, much as Cabrera did on a similar contract (two years, $18.5MM plus an option that was exercised for 2018). While Frazier could conceivably also spend time at first base, the likelihood is he’ll be the primary third baseman. In that sense, perhaps, the move all but formalizes the already evident fact that the chronically injured David Wright is unlikely to factor again at the hot corner for New York.
As he reunites with his former Cincinnati teammate Jay Bruce, Frazier will hope to be part of a resurgent Mets roster. The club has brought back most of the band despite a disappointing 2017 campaign, with a few modifications. New York has now filled its most glaring needs and certainly has the talent to compete in the coming season, though the organization still faces its fair share of uncertainty — particularly in the injury department.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Should Mets Consider Pursuing Lance Lynn?
- Of course, other organizations are arguably in a similar position with regard to Lynn. Even taking a pessimistic view of his future, he profiles as a quality back-end starter that would upgrade just about every rotation in baseball. Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch argued recently that the Cardinals ought to be ready to grab Lynn — at least, if he can be had for a cheaper-than-expected contract. A similar sentiment has been batted around by Mets writers. (See, e.g., this post from John Harper of the New York Daily News and this Twitter exchange between MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo and Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal.) No doubt an argument for the pursuit of Lynn could also be constructed for quite a few other teams, which is the sort of reasoning that supports at least some reason to believe that he and other mid-level free agents can still find significant contracts.
- David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution breaks down the current Braves thinking at third base. Many have wondered why Atlanta did not beat the offer made by the division-rival Mets for third baseman Todd Frazier, but O’Brien notes that the team would likely have had to dangle quite a bit more money to lure Frazier from his home town to play for an organization with a less experienced roster. Of even greater interest, O’Brien says the Braves front office likely doesn’t have much free cash to work with, making a pursuit of Mike Moustakas unlikely as well. The team’s contract swap with the Dodgers moved payroll forward to the 2018 balance sheet, so the odds are at this point that the club will simply allow its array of young infielders to sink or swim in the majors.
Mets Could Pursue Rotation Addition
After being quiet for much of the offseason, the Mets have been more active in recent weeks, bring Jay Bruce back to Queens on a three-year deal and reportedly agreeing to a two-year pact with Todd Frazier. And now that they’ve satisfied their needs in the infield and outfield for the most part, the team could turn its focus to the starting pitching. Both MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo and the New York Daily News’ John Harper reported Tuesday that the Mets could look to the open market for some support in the rotation.
DiComo suggests that the Mets are keeping an eye out for rotation help but don’t consider it as much of a priority as an infielder was, whereas Harper characterizes the need a bit more aggressively, writing that a source told him that the Mets are “serious” about looking at rotation possibilities. Meanwhile, the Record’s Matt Ehalt suggests that if the team adds a rotation arm, it’ll likely be an affordable source of innings rather than a top starter with draft compensation attached (Twitter links). Ehalt also notes that a lefty reliever is another area of focus for the Mets.
Starting pitching was a strength during the Mets’ 2015 World Series run, as the team rode strong performances from Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey plus veterans Jon Niese and Bartolo Colon to an NL pennant that season. Steven Matz made his big league debut that season as well and impressed in six starts.
However, the Mets’ rotation was in shambles for much of the 2017 season, with Syndergaard, Harvey, Matz, Zack Wheeler and Seth Lugo among the rotation pieces that missed significant time due to injury. Only deGrom held up and made a full season’s worth of starts, logging 201 innings over the course of 31 trips to the hill.
All of the team’s rotation options that were limited in 2017 are expected to be healthy for Spring Training, but the general lack of stability surrounding them is an unequivocal cause for concern. Harvey has undergone both Tommy John surgery and thoracic outlet surgery in recent years. Matz’s career, both in the minors and Majors, has been punctuated by shoulder and elbow troubles. Wheeler was torched for an ERA north of 5.00 in his first season back after two years lost to Tommy John surgery. Syndergaard pitched just 30 1/3 innings last year due to a torn lat muscle.
The question for the Mets, at this point, is one of how much ownership will be willing to spend to bolster the starting corps after already signing Frazier, Bruce, Anthony Swarzak and Jose Reyes this offseason. The Mets still project for a payroll that comes in south of last year’s Opening Day mark, and as was the case in 2017, they’ll recoup $15MM or so of the $20MM owed to David Wright this year by virtue of the insurance policy on his contract (assuming that Wright once again is relegated to the 60-day DL for much, if not all of the season).
Harper, within his column, opines that Lance Lynn would be an ideal fit for the Mets, though there’s been no serious indication to this point that the Mets would play for any of the top four starters on the market, particularly those wiho rejected a qualifying offer. In addition to Ehalt’s report, GM Sandy Alderson recently expressed reluctance to pursue Mike Moustakas in part due to draft compensation, and the team ultimately elected to bring Frazier into the fold instead.
While Lynn, Alex Cobb, Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish aren’t in the fold (Darvish due to general price tag, the others due to price and draft compensation), the market for starters has scarcely moved at all this winter, so Alderson & Co. have plenty of alternatives. Other available options for the club would include Jaime Garcia, Andrew Cashner and old friend Jason Vargas. Bounceback candidates still exist in the form of Chris Tillman and Hector Santiago, while less exciting but durable innings eaters still available include Ricky Nolasco and Wade Miley.
Mets Notes: Moustakas, Wright
Third baseman Mike Moustakas ranks among most prominent victims of this year’s abnormal offseason, having not landed a contract three months after hitting free agency as one of the top players available. It’s unlikely Moustakas’ next deal will come courtesy of the Cardinals, according to Jose de Jesus Ortiz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, even though they’ve been in on third basemen this offseason (trade targets Manny Machado and Josh Donaldson in specific). It appears the Cards will use Jedd Gyorko and Matt Carpenter at third, per Ortiz, who adds that the team has informed Carpenter he’ll fill a super-utility role. The Cards are the second potential landing spot for Moustakas that has been downplayed in the past few days; Mets GM Sandy Alderson suggested on Thursday that a match with Moustakas didn’t seem likely for a variety of reasons.
- The Mets will be able to place David Wright on the 60-day disabled list as soon as Feb. 14, notes Ken Davidoff of the New York Post, which could be advantageous given the glut of free agents that remain unsigned and the number of players that’ll be jettisoned from 40-man rosters throughout the league as free agents (presumably) begin to sign at some point in the coming weeks. New York can’t and won’t simply release Wright, as doing so would cancel their insurance policy on the remaining $47MM of his contract (which reportedly covers 75 percent of his salary) and because Wright continues to strive for an improbable comeback. If Wright ultimately decides he’s no longer able to continue his career, the Mets and the insurance company could work out a settlement, but that doesn’t seem likely for the current season, it seems. Wright is owed $47MM through 2020 — $20MM in 2018, $15MM in 2019 and $12MM in 2020.
Puma On Why Mets, Eduardo Nunez Might Not Be A Match
- The Mets are reportedly interested in free agent infielder Eduardo Nunez, but Mike Puma of the New York Post wonders (on Twitter) if the organization’s hitting philosophy may ultimately prevent a signing from occurring. The club “emphasizes selectivity,” Puma points out, and that’s not the case with Nunez. Among hitters with at least 400 plate appearances last year, he had the seventh-lowest walk percentage (3.7) and the 14th-highest chase rate (39.6 percent).
East Notes: Marlins, Arroyo, E-Rod, Mets
A 2008 agreement between Miami-Dade county and Jeffrey Loria (and his partners) saw the county fund most of the $515 million government-owned Marlins stadium in Little Havana. In exchange, the county was promised the right to 5 percent of any profits Loria & co. earned if they sold the team within 10 years. Yet Loria’s lawyers have released documents telling the county not to expect any money at all from last year’s $1.2 billion sale of the Marlins, Douglas Hanks of the Miami Herald writes. The reasoning from Loria’s camp is that his accountants claim the sale amounted to a net loss of $141MM. The breakdown they offer begins with a $625MM agreed-to underlying value of the franchise, $280MM in debt, circa $300MM in taxes tied to the sale and a write-off of the $30MM fee paid to financial advisors. Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez says that the city may sue to collect the taxpayers’ fair share of that $1.2 billion. My message is that this community really allowed you to make a lot of money,” he said on Friday. “He should do the right thing. He made profits, and he made big profits. He should share that with the people who allowed him to do that.”
Here are a few other tidbits from around the league’s Eastern teams…
- Newly-acquired Rays infielder Christian Arroyo was working out at Tropicana Field on Friday morning, Bill Chastain of MLB.com writes. MLB Pipeline’s 81st overall prospect saw his 2017 season end due to a broken hand, but surgeon Donald Sheridan cleared him for baseball activities after a visit on January 9th. “The hand is great,” Arroyo said. “Right now, it’s about getting back into baseball shape.” The 22-year-old came to Tampa Bay in this winter’s trade that sent Evan Longoria to San Francisco. He hit .192/.244/.304 across 135 plate appearances with the Giants last year in his first taste of big-league action, and figures to be in the Rays’ infield mix for the coming season.
- Speaking of young players returning from injury, Red Sox left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez could potentially miss a few starts at the beginning of the season after undergoing right knee patellofemoral ligament reconstruction surgery, Ian Browne of MLB.com writes. “[The injury] happened, like, three times already,” Rodriguez pointed out. “I was just trying to fight to pitch with a knee like that. And I did it. Sometimes there would be ups and downs. Now it’s time to get back to the guy I was before I got the surgery.” The 24-year-old southpaw’s had his share of ups and downs across parts of three seasons with the Red Sox. Last season, he put up 137 1/3 innings for the club while striking out 9.83 batters per nine and posting a 4.19 ERA overall.
- Eduardo Nunez and Todd Frazier are currently the Mets’ leading choices in their search for an infielder, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports via Twitter. They’re apparently leery of getting “used” by Frazier (presumably for leverage) if he prefers the Yankees as his ultimate destination. In addition, the Mets are reportedly reluctant to bring back second baseman Neil Walker, and aren’t getting any traction in their efforts to acquire Josh Harrison from the Pirates. Lastly, Rosenthal adds that the team is interested in signing Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn out of free agency if their prices dip low enough.
Mets Notes: Catchers, Collins
- The Mets plan to continue with a timeshare at catcher consisting of Travis d’Arnaud and Kevin Plawecki in 2018, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com writes. Although there may be an upgrade available in free agency (past Mets target Jonathan Lucroy, to be specific), GM Sandy Alderson is inclined to stick with with his in-house tandem. “At that position, I think it would be difficult for us to find a pair that we like appreciably better,” he said. “I think we’ve been generally happy with our catching play.” The 28-year-old d’Arnaud and Plawecki, 26, represent a pair of former top 100 prospects who haven’t delivered as hoped in the majors (injury woes are partly to blame in the former’s case), but they each posted passable offensive numbers a season ago. D’Arnaud also graded as one of the majors’ top pitch framers in 2017, per Baseball Prospectus (though StatCorner saw things differently).
- Former Mets manager Terry Collins is now working as a special assistant to Alderson, and he explained what some of his new role will entail to Kevin Kernan of the New York Post. “I will be another set of eyes, and one of the things is to make sure the instruction at the minor league level is efficient,” revealed Collins, a former minor league manager. “We have to make sure, when they call up a player, he’s ready. I think I still have something to give to the game.” On whether he’d like to manage in the majors again, the 68-year-old Collins said, “I would, but I don’t think with the new era of stuff that would happen.”
