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Free Agent Notes: Jay, Shaw, Frazier

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Over at Fangraphs, Dave Cameron has identified his five best potential free agent values and, on the other hand, five most worrisome open-market landmines. Those posts are always interesting and are well worth a read as we wait for the market to get started in earnest.

Here are a few free agent notes on Thanksgiving Eve:

  • The Mariners have engaged with free agent outfielder Jon Jay, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (Twitter link). It “seems as though there’s some momentum there,” he adds, while also cautioning that there isn’t a deal in place at present. Jay checked in just inside the top forty players on MLBTR’s ranking of the top fifty free agents, with a predicted contract of two years and $14MM. Last year, he slashed .296/.374/.375 in 433 plate appearances with the Cubs while seeing time across the outfield. It seems unlikely that the left-handed hitter would command everyday time in Seattle, but might effectively step into the place in the rotation vacated by fellow free agent Jarrod Dyson.
  • It’s possible the Mets will “move[] soon” to add to their bullpen, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets. He suggests right-handed free agent Bryan Shaw as a name to watch for the organization, which has indicated an interest in beefing up its relief corps in part to reduce the workload on a rotation that has dealt with health issues of late. Shaw, 30, is about as steady and reliable as relievers come. He carries a 3.13 lifetime ERA through 446 1/3 innings across seven seasons. Shaw has handled at least 64 frames in each of the past five campaigns and has never finished a season with an earned run average over 3.52 (last year’s mark). He has also paced the American League in appearances in three separate seasons for the Indians, including each of the past two. MLBTR rated Shaw the 25th-best free agent available and predicted he’d score a $21MM guarantee over three years, though there’s likely some contractual upside beyond that mark.
  • Though Todd Frazier has spent most of his career at third base and is still capable of manning the position, Feinsand reports that his representatives are pitching the veteran as an option at either infield corner. The 31-year-old Frazier turned in a solid 2017 campaign, split between the White Sox and Yankees, in which he posted a .213/.344/.428 batting line with 27 home runs. While that represented a big jump in the on-base department over his prior two seasons, Frazier also wasn’t quite as prolific in terms of power as he was after swatting 35 and 40 long balls in 2015 and 2016, respectively. Odds are that the team to sign Frazier will mostly value him as an option at third, particularly given that there are a fair number of other options available at first base, but the openness to both positions certainly won’t hurt his market outlook. Frazier landed ahead of the two players listed above on our free agent board, with a predicted three-year, $33MM contract placing him 17th on the list.

Players Added To The 40-Man Roster

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As detailed earlier this morning at MLBTR, the deadline for Major League clubs to add players to the 40-man roster in order to protect them from next month’s Rule 5 Draft is tonight. Because of that, there will be literally dozens of moves between now and 8pm ET as teams make final determinations on who to protect and who to risk losing in next month’s Rule 5 draft. This process will lead to smaller-scale trades, waiver claims and DFAs, but for some clubs the only necessary moves will simply be to select the contracts of the prospects they wish to place on the 40-man roster. We’ll track those such moves in this post…

Click to check in on other teams that have selected players to their 40-man rosters …

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Mets, Tigers Have Discussed Ian Kinsler

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The Mets have discussed trade scenarios involving veteran second baseman Ian Kinsler with the Tigers, according to a report from MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). Those talks are preliminary in nature, per the report.

Kinsler, 35, is expected to draw wide interest from teams that are looking for a quality veteran to plug into their everyday lineup without undertaking a lengthy commitment. The 12-year major leaguer is set to earn $11MM this year before reaching free agency.

For the Mets, there’s an obvious hole at second base that remains to be filled. With Neil Walker gone and Asdrubal Cabrera slated to step over to third base, the team doesn’t have a clear option at second.

To be sure, there are 40-man members that could play there: Wilmer Flores, Matt Reynolds, Gavin Cecchini, and T.J. Rivera. But none seem to be regular options. Flores has shown a solid bat at the game’s highest level but has mostly been utilized in a utility capacity. Reynolds and Cecchini have not hit much in their limited MLB action. And though Rivera has shown some promise since reaching the majors, he’s expected to miss time early after undergoing Tommy John surgery.

It’s not hard to see the appeal, then, in Kinsler. He is coming off of a down season at the plate, in which he slashed just .236/.313/.412 after a string of above-average offensive campaigns. But he remained a top-end defender and has long been one of the sport’s steadier players.

While Kinsler does have partial no-trade protection, indications are he’d be amenable to waiving it given where things are headed for the Tigers. It seems exceedingly likely that he’ll end up changing hands this winter.

It’s worth noting, too, that Morosi says some clubs are also considering Kinsler as an option at third base. (Twitter link.) Kinsler has scant experience at the hot corner — two MLB innings and ten in the minors — but that idea might conceivably open up his market to some additional suitors.

East Notes: O’s/Cobb, Mets, Nats, Jays, Rays

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The Orioles seem to be casting a wide net in their hunt for starting pitching, as they have been cited as having interest in quite a few arms already. While the organization has become known for doing a good portion of its business later in the offseason, perhaps it’ll be more aggressive on some pitchers this time around. In any event, the latest name connected to the O’s is righty Alex Cobb, with Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweeting that the team has interest in a hurler who long tormented them in the division. Cobb won’t come cheap, but could be an option if Baltimore decides it’s able to add a more significant contract. The primary goal, though, will be to ensure there’s enough depth on hand in the rotation.

More from the eastern divisions:

  • The Mets are the current poster child for the concept that you can never have enough pitching depth. Even on the heels of a tough season in which the club’s vaunted rotation collapsed, though, GM Sandy Alderson says he’ll consider dealing arms, as Mike Puma of the New York Post reports. While there’s still a need to “be careful” not to thin the staff out too far, Alderson is obviously also looking for ways to improve with a limited amount of payroll flexibility. Odds are that the team’s most prominent pitchers won’t be dangled, but Puma suggests Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo, or Rafael Montero might conceivably be discussed.
  • While there’s nothing the Nationals can do to get out from under their 2018 commitment to Matt Wieters, the team will look for ways to improve behind the plate. Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post writes that the plan is to reduce the veteran’s role. Of course, that would mean relying more heavily on another player, and the team’s top internal alternatives (Pedro Severino and Raudy Read) are hardly sure things. An external acquisition will surely at least be considered; I ran through some other possibilities after the Nats were bounced from the postseason.
  • The Blue Jays are aiming for depth in their pitching staff, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca writes. Lefty Robbie Ross is among the arms they are interested in, he reports. Certainly, Toronto has had a chance to see Ross up close over the past several years, which he has spent with the Red Sox. He was limited by injury in 2017 but turned in 55 1/3 innings of 3.25 ERA pitching in the prior campaign. Toronto isn’t limiting itself to lefty relievers, though; Nicholson-Smith says the club is looking at basically every type of hurler out there.
  • Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times has the latest on the Rays’ efforts to land a new ballpark. Owner Stuart Sternberg expressed optimism about a prospective site in Hillsborough County, but there are plenty of challenges still to be dealt with. Among them: the club “might only cover $150 million of the projected $800 million cost,” Topkin writes. Those interested in learning more about where things stand will want to give the link a full read.

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/17/17

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Here are Friday’s minor moves throughout the league…

  • Joining the Reds on minors deals are outfielders Mason Williams and Rosell Herrera, C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer was among those to report on Twitter. Once seen as one of the game’s better overall prospects, the 26-year-old Williams has seen scant action in the majors over the past three seasons — all with the Yankees, his only professional team to this point. At the highest level of the minors last year, Williams posted a .263/.309/.318 batting line and swiped 19 bags over 437 plate appearances.Herrera, 25, has himself received top prospect billing in the past and is also something of a change-of-scenery candidate (in his case, from the Rockies). He just wrapped up his first season at Triple-A, slashing .278/.351/.394 with twenty steals over 363 plate appearances.
  • The Mets have struck a minors pact with southpaw Matt Purke, the team announced. Purke, 27, was considered a significant amateur prospect but has never fully found his niche at the game’s highest levels while dealing with numerous injury issues. He cracked the majors in 2016 with the White Sox, but did not return last year even as the Chicago organization cycled through a number of arms. Purke arguably turned in his best work in the upper minors, though, working 65 2/3 frames of 3.84 ERA ball over 48 innings while compiling 11.0 K/9 against 3.8 BB/9.
  • Right-hander Angel Nesbitt has been hit with a 50-game PED suspension, Emily Waldon of The Athletic tweets. Nesbitt received a 24-game run in the majors in 2015 with the Tigers, but hadn’t made his way back and struggled in limited action in 2017. He is a minor-league free agent, meaning he’ll serve his penance upon signing with a new organization.

Earlier Updates

  • The Blue Jays announced last night that they’ve brought back former first-round pick Deck McGuire on a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training. Toronto selected McGuire, now 28 years of age, with the 10th overall pick back in 2010. The former Georgia Tech star tore through Class-A Advanced with the Jays but began to struggle upon reaching Double-A and was ultimately traded to the A’s for cash considerations in 2014. McGuire has since pitched in the upper levels of the Dodgers and Cardinals systems, and in 2017 he made his big league debut with the Reds after turning in a terrific season in Double-A. McGuire tossed 168 innings with a 2.79 ERA, 9.1 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 for Cincinnati’s Pensacola affiliate, and he impressed in a brief sample of MLB innings as well. Through 13 2/3 frames with the Reds, McGuire allowed four earned runs (2.63 ERA) on 10 hits and two walks with 11 strikeouts.
  • Andy McCullough of the L.A. Times tweets that the Dodgers are closing in on a minor league deal with left-hander Manny Banuelos. The 26-year-old Banuelos was once one of the most prized prospects in the Yankees’ farm system before elbow problems slowed his career. Banuelos had Tommy John surgery back in 2013 and has since undergone a second elbow operation to remove bone chips. His lone season with MLB experience came in 2015 when he tossed 26 1/3 innings with the Braves. Banuelos spent the 2017 season with the Angels’ Triple-A affiliate and struggled to a 4.93 ERA with 8.1 K/9 against 4.6 BB/9 in 95 innings. It’s perhaps worth noting that he spent the bulk of 2017 as a reliever (nine starts, 30 relief outings) — his first career season working primarily out of the bullpen.

Heyman’s Latest: Moore, Cain, Rangers, Vargas/O’s, Rodney/D-Backs

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In his latest Inside Baseball column, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag looks into the Royals front office. Owner David Glass is “considering a possible two-year extension” for GM Dayton Moore, writes Heyman, even though Moore has “no leverage” given that he’s already under contract for three more seasons. This all arises after Glass declined to allow the Braves to speak with Moore about changing squads. While Moore has expressed gratitude to ownership, his recent comments were interesting, if difficult to interpret with any precision. All told, it seems there could still be some unresolved matters in the Kansas City front office.

Let’s look at a few more items from Heyman of particular relevance to the still-developing hot stove season:

  • Top free agent center fielder Lorenzo Cain has drawn some early interest from the Mets and Giants, according to Heyman. As regards the New York organization, this information seems to conflict with recent statements from Mets GM Sandy Alderson — though as ever it’s worth taking things with a grain of salt and acknowledging fluidity this time of year. As for the Giants, we at MLBTR pegged San Francisco as the likeliest landing spot for Cain, though some doubt whether the organization will go over the luxury tax line and sacrifice draft choices to land him. At a minimum, though, the organization would seem to be wise to do some diligence on the possibility.
  • The Rangers have “looked into” free agent righties Lance Lynn and Tyler Chatwood, says Heyman. While it’s not clear just how serious the interest is, the link isn’t surprising. Texas clearly needs arms; indeed, MLBTR guessed they’d land Lynn. While Chatwood doesn’t have nearly the track record of results that Lynn does, he is an intriguing option in his own right and shares some of the characteristics of Andrew Cashner — the former Ranger free agent signee who is himself back on the open market.
  • Another team with a desire to add several starters (and with reputed interest in Chatwood) is the Orioles. The Baltimore front office met with agents for lefty Jason Vargas during the GM Meetings, Heyman reports. The 34-year-old veteran seems to be a good match for the O’s, as we predicted, since the team needs to find so many rotation innings and can’t afford to make major long-term commitments to multiple starters.
  • The Diamondbacks are “open” to bringing back Fernando Rodney, GM Mike Hazen tells Heyman. Arizona is facing a difficult payroll situation but obviously will be looking to maintain and improve upon a Wild Card-winning roster. Though Rodney didn’t dominate last year, he’s still throwing mid-nineties heat and generating quite a few swings and misses — and obviously met with the approval of the D-Backs’ brass in the closer’s role. Beyond improving the pen, the Arizona priority is to improve in the outfield, per the report. That could mean pursuing under-the-radar additions; though Hazen says he’s not ruling out a return for J.D. Martinez, that’d almost certainly require the kind of payroll increase that does not appear to be under consideration.

NL East Notes: Nationals, Mets, Conforto, Marlins

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The Nationals have yet to hold any extension discussions with stars Bryce Harper or Anthony Rendon, agent Scott Boras told reporters at the GM Meetings on Wednesday (via Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post). Asked whether there’d be any talk about a deal for Harper before he reaches free agency next winter, Boras suggested that the matter is presently up to the Nationals. GM Mike Rizzo told the New York Post’s Joel Sherman yesterday that he’d be “surprised” if there were no extension talks with Harper this winter, though as Janes points out, those types of negotiations typically occur later in the offseason.

A bit more from the division…

  • With both Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle under team control next season, the Nationals are less inclined to pursue top-tier free agent relievers, Janes writes in a second piece. Rizzo expressed confidence in that duo and offered a generally encouraging review of his relief corps overall, health permitting. Injury concerns are present, though, as Janes notes; both Koda Glover and Shawn Kelley were heavily limited by arm troubles in 2017. As such Rizzo indicated that it’s possible his team will pursue some right-handed bullpen help this offseason. Janes runs down several options that Nats fans will want to check out, and she also notes that Matt Albers may ultimately end up elsewhere as he cashes in on a career year.
  • Mets GM Sandy Alderson strongly downplayed the notion of signing an outfielder upon leaving the GM Meetings, tweets Mike Puma of the New York Post. Alderson indicated that a player that can handle some outfield as well as first base, or even just a pure first baseman are considerations, however. As Newsday’s Marc Carig tweets, that effectively points to regular center field work for Juan Lagares in 2018. Per Carig, the Mets have received trade interest in Lagares in the past and shown little inclination to move him. Of note, Carig also tweets that the Mets consider Jay Bruce versatile enough to handle both the outfield and first base, so a reunion remains on the table.
  • Michael Conforto’s agents tell Joel Sherman of the New York Post that their client has received “excellent” medical updates from the surgeons that performed his shoulder operation thus far in his recovery. The young Mets oufielder is expected to be swinging a bat by late January and should be ready for Spring Training, as things presently stand.
  • Tim Healey of the South Florida Sun Sentinel spoke to Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill about the team’s need for rotation help. Adding starting pitching is reportedly a priority for the Fish even as they look to pare down payroll by roughly $50MM and market several of their biggest stars, including Giancarlo Stanton, in trades. Of course, as Hill alluded to, the composition of the returns on their trades could well help to satisfy that priority. “We know we need to get better,” Hill said of his team’s starting pitching options.“Some of the trades may dictate what that looks like, what shape or form that looks like.” Hill also indicated that the Marlins could look at smaller trades and waiver claims as a means of adding additional options.

Free Agent Rumblings: Walker, Cobb, Chatwood, Minor, Lucroy, Bautista

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As major league organizations compete to bring home the shiniest new cars in Playoffville (Copyright Scott Boras), let’s check in on the latest rumored connections:

  • The Pirates have at least “some interest” in old friend Neil Walker, Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweets. Morosi cites uncertainty surrounding Jung Ho Kang as driving the possibility of a reunion, though as MLB.com’s Adam Berry writes, there’s another perspective on that subject, too. GM Neal Huntington says there’s still some hope that Kang will be able to return and finish his contract. If not, though, he feels the team is in good shape in the infield without him, due in part to the acquisition of Sean Rodriguez over the summer.
  • It seems there’s some mutual interest between the Cubs and righty Alex Cobb, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times writes. That’s not a surprising connection, given the common roots with the Rays of Cobb and several key Cubs figures. The sides have engaged in preliminary discussions, though Wittenmyer’s sources tell him that contract particulars haven’t yet been broached.
  • Another starter getting a bite is Tyler Chatwood, in whom the Orioles have shown interest, per Morosi (via Twitter). That’s a connection that comes as little surprise. Baltimore is going to have to take some chances to fill out its staff, and Chatwood looks to be one of the market’s more interesting possibilities to provide value. He won’t turn 28 until December and has posted solid results outside of Coors Field, prompting MLBTR to predict a three-year deal (albeit at a relatively modest annual value). While Camden Yards and the AL East are an intimidating prospect for many pitchers, Chatwood at least has plenty of experience dealing with similar challenges.
  • The Mets are among the teams with interest in free agent southpaw Mike Minor, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. We’ve heard recently about New York’s desire to pursue impact relief pitching, and Minor certainly fits that mold. Given his past history as a starter and dominance against southpaws last year, the 29-year-old would provide quite a bit of functionality.
  • The Astros are showing some interest in free agent catcher Jonathan Lucroy, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). Lucroy could make for an interesting fit in Houston, though adding a backstop of that quality no doubt would represent a luxury for the team that already has most everything. Presumably, the ’Stros could plan to split time between Lucroy and fellow veteran Brian McCann, with the other spending quite a lot of time at DH (if not also some first base). Signing Lucroy could mean non-tendering Evan Gattis, though he might also be retained and also utilized in the same rotation. There are certainly some intriguing possibilities here, though Lucroy should also be pursued by others that might offer him significant time as a primary catcher.
  • It seems the Rays could again be a suitor for veteran slugger Jose Bautista, per Morosi (Twitter links). Talks haven’t really progressed to this point, but that’s hardly surprising — particularly since Tampa Bay’s entire offseason approach remains largely unclear. For his part, Bautista is said to be willing to spend time at DH or the corner infield, per agent Jay Alou.

Mets Rumors: Ohtani, Smith, Asdrubal, Bullpen, Free Agency

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The Mets are weighing an earnest pursuit of Japanese star Shohei Ohtani if and when he is posted by the Nippon Ham Fighters, David Lennon and Marc Carig of Newsday report. While the Mets are limited in what they can offer at present, the team could potentially trade for additional pool money. The greater allure than the signing bonus they can offer, though, comes with the endorsement opportunities available to Ohtani by signing with one of the two teams in the nation’s largest market, Carig and Lennon posit. The Mets also have a strong relationship with Ohtani’s agency, CAA, and they could offer Ohtani opportunities to bat not only on the days he’s pitching but occasionally in the outfield. Lennon notes that the Mets should still be considered a long shot, but it’s nonetheless worth noting that another large-market club could be in the mix for his services.

A few more notes out of Queens…

  • Mike Puma of the New York Post reports that the Mets are indeed interested in Carlos Santana, as FanRag’s Jon Heyman recently suggested, adding that the interest in Santana has a correlation with some executives’ feelings toward prospect Dominic Smith. The former first-round pick made his big league debut late in the 2017 season and didn’t do much to impress, hitting just .198/.262/.395 with a 26.8 percent strikeout rate in 183 plate appearances. Smith is still just 22 years of age, and Puma hardly suggests that the team has completely given up on the young slugger. But, assistant GM John Ricco also suggested to Puma and other reporters that the club could trade from its big league roster if it meant acquiring other big league talent. He also specifically indicated that Wilmer Flores could platoon with Smith, so there’s certainly the possibility that he could yet play a large role for the Mets moving forward.
  • Puma notes within that seem piece that Ricco suggested Asdrubal Cabrera currently factors into the plan as a third baseman. The Mets could shift him to second base if a better option at the hot corner arises, though MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo tweets that the Mets are most likely to add a second base option this offseason with Cabrera penciled in at third base. Puma writes that while the Mets are being open-minded when it comes to the infield, they are not likely to pursue either Eric Hosmer or Mike Moustakas in free agency.
  • The Mets are “ramping up” to make a play that has previously been uncharacteristic for them, tweets Carig. New York, it seems, is prepared to add a reliever to their bullpen even at the cost of a three- or four-year contract. Alderson has typically eschewed such commitments, but Carig notes that it’s considered a high priority for the team. The Post’s Joel Sherman points out that new manager Mickey Callaway and pitching coach Dave Eiland bring some insight into a group of free-agent relievers. Joe Smith, Bryan Shaw and Boone Logan pitched for Callaway in Cleveland (Smith was also drafted by the Mets), while Eiland was the pitching coach for Mike Minor in Kansas City.
  • Further adding to the notion that the Mets are poised for an active offseason, Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM tweets that Ricco joined him on the air tonight and “made it clear” that the Mets are going to be players on the free-agent market. Bowden notes that position players seem likelier than pitchers, though, with center field, first base, second base and third base all potential areas for addition. The Mets were already linked to center fielder Lorenzo Cain earlier this evening.

Blue Jays, Mets Showing Interest In Lorenzo Cain

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The Blue Jays and Mets have both reached out to the representatives for free-agent center fielder Lorenzo Cain, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. Crasnick also lists the Rangers, Mariners and Giants as more speculative fits for Cain’s services.

While both Toronto and New York already have standout defensive center fielders in Kevin Pillar and Juan Lagares, respectively, adding Cain to the outfield mix in either organization could create an elite defensive unit. The Blue Jays have a more pronounced need in the outfield, though young Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Alford could both work their way into regular roles next year. The Mets would appear to be more set with Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto both in the mix alongside Lagares, but Conforto’s status is something of a question mark following shoulder surgery. Speaking purely speculatively, acquiring Cain could also allow either club to trade from its stock of outfielders.

Cain, 32 next April, hit .300/.363/.440 with 15 homers and 26 steals in 645 plate appearances with the Royals in 2017. While he’s never turned in a below-average season in the outfield by virtually any defensive metric, this past season was his weakest in that regard. Defensive Runs Saved pegged him at +5 runs in center field, while Ultimate Zone Rating had him at +1.6. Statcast’s new Outs Above Average metric still pegged Cain as one of baseball’s truly elite outfielders; he ranked fifth among all outfielders with a sterling mark of +15.

Cain will reportedly reject the Royals’ $17.4MM qualifying offer, meaning he’ll cost any club that signs him some resources in next year’s draft. Specifically, the Jays and the Mets would forfeit their second-highest pick and $500K worth of next year’s international signing pool in order to sign Cain, as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently explained. The Rangers would face that same penalty, while the Mariners would only need to forfeit their third-highest selection. Of the teams listed by Crasnick, the Giants would pay the steepest penalty — forfeiting their second- and fifth-highest draft selections as well as $1MM worth of international spending money. San Francisco is “juggling a lot of balls” at present, per Crasnick.

The Royals, meanwhile, would land a compensatory draft pick after the first round so long as Cain signs a contract worth more than $50MM in total guarantees. That seems exceedingly likely to be the case, wherever he signs. In the off-chance that Cain somehow comes up shy of $50MM, Kansas City’s comp pick would come after Competitive Balance Round B in next year’s draft.

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