Mets Avoid Arbitration With Duda, Reed, Familia
JAN. 13: The Mets have also avoided arb with setup man Addison Reed and closer Jeurys Familia, per a pair of reports from Heyman and James Wagner of the New York Times (Twitter links). Reed will earn $7.75MM and Familia will take home $7.425MM. Familia was projected to earn $8.7MM and came in a fair bit shy of that sum, while Reed’s unique background somewhat “broke” MLBTR’s arbitration model and resulted in a $10.6MM projection. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who designed the model, explained earlier this week why Reed’s case was something of an outlier and suggested at the time that a salary in the range of $8MM was more likely.
JAN. 12: The Mets have avoided arbitration with first baseman Lucas Duda, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). Duda will receive $7.25MM in the deal.
That’s a fairly healthy bump over the MLBTR projection of $6.725MM, which would have been a repeat of Duda’s 2016 salary. Ultimately, he’ll get about half a million more after an injury-limited season in which he took just 172 plate appearances.
Duda will be looking to get on track before hitting the open market after the season. First, he’ll need to return to health after a long layoff due to back surgery. If he’s able to do that, there’s certainly reason to think he can be a productive bat at first base. Between 2014 and 2015, he slashed .249/.350/.483 with 57 home runs.
Mets, Orioles To Employ “File-And-Trial” Arbitration Approach
The Mets and Orioles will adopt a “file-and-trial” approach to their arbitration-eligible players this year, as Marc Carig of Newsday (via Twitter) and Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun (also on Twitter) report. That means that the organizations will only negotiate with players up until tomorrow’s 1pm EST deadline to exchange filing figures; if no deal is found with a given player, they’ll take the case to arbitration.
MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explained the “file-and-trial” stance a few years back. Some organizations adopt it as a blanket rule, with at least some of those willing to make exceptions only in cases of multi-year arrangements. Others will utilize it on a case-by-case basis, notifying certain players of that intention in the course of negotiations.
It’s always tough to keep tabs on precisely which teams utilize this strategy, and it can certainly change — especially with front office turnover. At last check, though, file-and-trial teams include the Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Marlins, Rays, and White Sox. And there are at least five others that seem to take that approach with some players: the Brewers, Indians, Nationals, Pirates, and Reds.
By adopting this approach, the New York and Baltimore organizations have turned up the heat on their final talks with arb-eligible players. As things stand, the O’s have yet to reach terms with a variety of notable players, led by Zach Britton, Manny Machado, Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, and Jonathan Schoop. The club also has to work out salaries with Brad Brach and Caleb Joseph. It’s not an easy season for the Mets, either; they have yet to settle with Addison Reed, Jeurys Familia, Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Wilmer Flores, Travis d’Arnaud, and Josh Edgin.
As always, you can view MLBTR’s arbitration projects right here, and track the players who have and haven’t agreed to terms with our arbitration tracker.
Mets, Zack Wheeler Avoid Arbitration
The Mets have reached an agreement with right-hander Zack Wheeler on a one-year deal worth $800K, thus avoiding arbitration, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports (via Twitter).
Wheeler comes in shy of the $1MM projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, although the unique circumstances surrounding his health make him a tricky player to project. Wheeler has undeniable talent and looked to be emerging as an excellent long-term rotation cog for the Mets when he tossed 285 1/3 innings of 3.50 ERA ball from 2013-14. However, he underwent Tommy John surgery in the spring of 2015 and missed the entire 2016 season due to lingering complications in his recovery. This winter marked his first trip through the arbitration process, and he remains controllable through the 2019 season.
The Mets are planning on Wheeler returning to health in 2017, though it’s not known exactly how heavily his arm can be depended upon. Now 26 years old, Wheeler is just one of many talented Mets arms that carries significant injury question marks. Matt Harvey underwent surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome this past summer (and has a Tommy John procedure under his belt as well), while Jacob deGrom had surgery to repair the ulnar nerve in his right arm and Steven Matz underwent surgery to remove bone spurs in his left elbow (to say nothing of left shoulder issues that plagued him late in the year as well). Even ace Noah Syndergaard, who didn’t require any surgery or miss any time this year, was said to be pitching through a small spur in his own elbow.
As it stands, Wheeler could join that quartet in New York’s 2017 rotation, although there’s also been some talk of him working out of the bullpen as he eases back into the rigors of a Major League pitching regimen. If that’s the case, the Mets have a number of alternatives in the fifth spot of the rotation, headed by right-handers Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman. Right-hander Gabriel Ynoa made his big league debut last year as well, and former top prospect Rafael Montero remains a depth option. Southpaw Sean Gilmartin, too, has plenty of experience starting, although he’s worked almost exclusively as a reliever in the Majors.
Market Notes: Ross, Bourn, Braves, Bruce
With plenty of apparent interest, veteran righty Tyson Ross is “taking a methodical approach” to deciding upon his next organization, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports in his latest notes column. Among the elements under consideration are the rehap options and “contractual structures” being proposed. Last we heard, the Rangers and Cubs were pursuing Ross most aggressively, with the Nationals also showing interest. All three clubs, it seems, are also lining up other possibilities in the event that they miss on the talented 29-year-old, who is attempting to work back from thoracic outlet surgery. Chicago, in particular, could turn its attention back to southpaw Travis Wood, notes Rosenthal, who says the team still likes the lefty.
- Meanwhile, per Rosenthal, the Orioles remain interested in Michael Bourn despite adding another left-handed-hitting outfielder in Seth Smith. Baltimore wants to boost the glovework in its outfield mix, he says, and evidently remains favorably disposed toward the veteran after his late-season run with the club in 2016. It’s not immediately clear how things would look if Bourn joins Smith and Hyun Soo Kim as southpaw-swinging options, though presumably either of the existing players could also mix in at DH, while Bourn could also spell Adam Jones in center.
- Though the Braves have added three veteran pieces to their rotation this winter, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman suggests that the club will continue to pursue a controllable, top-flight hurler. He cites Jose Quintana of the White Sox and Chris Archer of the Rays as the likeliest targets; indeed, Atlanta has long been connected to both, among plenty of other organizations. It would surely represent something of a surprise at this point were the Braves to make a major strike for a starter, but the organization has proved willing and able in the past to pull off significant deals at any stage of the year.
- The Mets continue to face a seeming dilemma with outfielder Jay Bruce, who hasn’t generated much demand on the trade market with a variety of power-hitting free agents still available on the open market. Joel Sherman of the New York Post takes a look at the situation, arguing that the club simply needs to make the best deal it can — even if it means eating salary. New York could explore ways to add a reliever in a Bruce swap, he notes, but shouldn’t allow his $13MM salary to get in the way of bolstering the pen.
Arbitration Breakdown: Addison Reed
Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher-profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.
Modeling arbitration salaries is an inexact science, and sometimes “inexact” is too generous of a description. Setup man Addison Reed‘s projected $5.3MM raise to $10.6MM is clearly one of those times. Even worse is that the model was only saved by the “Kimbrel Rule,” which states that a player can only beat the record salary for their service class by $1M in the model. The raw model projected a $5.8MM raise. Reed is going to get a far smaller raise than he projected, because the peculiarities of his case confuse the model so much.
Reed’s case is unique because he has 106 career saves but had 40 holds this year in lieu of working as a closer. Further, he struck out 91 batters in 77.2 innings while posting a microscopic 1.97 ERA. Relievers who have a career of closing success behind them tend to out-earn those who have a single good year as closers. So the model gives credit to career save totals, which boosts Reed’s projection significantly.
He is, however, unlikely to get extra credit for those saves in real life. Remove those career saves, and the model projects him for a $3.6MM raise. That’s still large, but much more reasonable.
Reed’s 40 holds this year put him in elite company on their own. In the last decade, only three relievers entering their third year of arbitration eligibility have even accumulated 30 holds—David Robertson in 2014, Tyler Clippard in 2014, and Mike Adams in 2012. They had 33, 33, and 32 holds, respectively, and earned raises of $2.12MM, $1.88MM, and $1.87MM. Their ERAs were strong as well: 2.04, 2.41, and 1.47, as compared with Reed’s 1.97 ERA total. The extra holds suggest Reed’s raise will be worth significantly more than Robertson’s $2.12MM.
That establishes a floor for Reed, but looking for a ceiling is tricky with a lack of relievers amassing 40 holds or anything near it. To find a potential ceiling, we can look to closers who pitched similarly. Among closers who had ERAs under 2.00 like Reed, only one name emerges from the last five years—Aroldis Chapman. He had 33 saves and a 1.63 ERA in 2015, with 116 strikeouts in 66.1 innings. Chapman got a $3.27MM raise. Although Reed had seven more holds than Chapman did saves, he had a higher ERA and fewer strikeouts.
Putting this together, it makes sense that Reed should fall somewhere between a $2.12 and $3.27MM. I suspect right in the middle at $2.7MM would make sense, putting him at $8MM. It is a far cry from the model’s $10.6MM projection ($11.1MM ignoring the Kimbrel Rule), but it definitely would be a healthy raise for Reed’s third year of eligibility.
Market Notes: Jays, Bruce, A’s, Plouffe, Dozier, Bautista, Trumbo, Lefty Relievers, Lewis
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports argues that the Blue Jays may have misread the market for power bats this winter. In the case of Toronto, he suggests, the team ought to have been more patient with Edwin Encarnacion. By moving quickly to give a three-year deal to Kendrys Morales after Encarnacion declined to take the team’s early-offseason offer, the Jays may have spent much more than necessary to land a player of Morales’s quality while also tying their hands on Encarnacion, who ended up signing for one year and $20MM less than Toronto had reportedly offered.
- The Mets, too, might have erred in their approach on Jay Bruce. He now seems a superfluous piece after the re-signing of Yoenis Cespedes, and Rosenthal says that he expects New York will need to pay down part of Bruce’s $13MM salary to deal him. The team picked up that option in large part to insure against the loss of Cespedes; a team source notes that insurance “doesn’t come for free,” and Rosenthal notes that the decision may have improved their bargaining position with their star free agent. But perhaps a greater recognition of the flood of sluggers would have led the team to choose an alternate path to protecting itself in the event of a departure of Cespedes.
- As they continue to look to bolster their lineup, the Athletics are showing interest in free-agent third baseman Trevor Plouffe, per Rosenthal. He’d presumably be a value-focused addition to the overall mix at third and first base. Of course, Oakland is also said to be looking at Mark Trumbo, so it seems the organization is still casting a fairly wide net.
- While there has been a suggestion that the Dodgers won’t form a package around Jose De Leon to pry Brian Dozier from the Twins, preferring instead to pursue a one-for-one deal, Rosenthal writes that Los Angeles is “willing to include other prospects” to get something done. Of course, it could well be that the issue isn’t so much the inclusion of some other pre-MLB players — surely, the Dodgers could find some expendable pieces to part with — so much as the question whether any are seen by Minnesota as adding significant value.
- Jon Heyman of Fan Rag provides a lengthy list of the winners and losers in the open-market action to date, though that can still change with a lot of free agents left and perhaps some trades still to be swung. As for some of those still-unsigned open-market players, Heyman provides a few notes. Jose Bautista‘s representatives “circled back” to the Orioles to gauge interest, but it still seems that Baltimore isn’t interested. And the Blue Jays “do not seem anxious” to strike a deal with the veteran. Meanwhile, the O’s remain involved on Trumbo.
- Heyman further notes that there remains robust demand for left-handed relievers. He lists the Mets, Yankees, Indians, and Blue Jays as teams still looking at southpaws. Jerry Blevins, Boone Logan, Travis Wood, and J.P. Howell are among the established left-handed options that remain available.
- It’s unlikely that the Rangers will bring back veteran righty Colby Lewis, as Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports. Though “the door’s open,” per GM Jon Daniels, he adds that he doesn’t “foresee anything happening at this point” with Lewis. Texas would be interested only in a minor-league arrangement, it seems, due in part to questions over Lewis’s health outlook.
Arbitration Breakdown: Jacob deGrom & Carlos Martinez
Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. Click here to view all of the 2017 projections.
Ever since Dontrelle Willis received $4.35 million in arbitration in 2006, it has been hard for first-time eligible starting pitchers to top his salary. The record stood for ten years, until last year Dallas Keuchel took home $7.25 million following a Cy Young Award-winning season. In the decade since Willis received his record first-year salary for starting pitchers, many pitchers have come extremely close to hitting his $4.35 million or have actually hit it. David Price matched Willis’ $4.35 million in 2012 and Shelby Miller did so last year. Seven other starting pitchers have earned between $4 and $4.35 million in the last decade as well.
Other pitchers who would likely have exceeded Willis’ record received multi-year deals, which usually removes them from consideration when looking for comparables. Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw were both coming off Cy Young seasons when they received multi-year deals, and Lance Lynn and Cole Hamels also received multi-year deals and subsequently missed out on breaking the record as well. Many elite starting pitchers are worthwhile candidates for multi-year deals, so it is not surprising that few of them actually receive one-year deals and become comparables. Among pitchers in the last decade with 30 career wins, 450 career innings, career ERAs below 3.50 and at least 100 platform year innings, five of nine signed multi-year deals before reaching agreement on one-year deals for their first year of salary arbitration.
Modeling arbitration salaries is obviously something that requires much precision, but the psychological barrier of $4.35 million is something that emotionless mathematical modeling will miss. As a result, I have written several articles over the years in which I explained that certain pitchers who were projected just over $4.35 million probably would not actually do so. Jacob deGrom and Carlos Martinez may be two such pitchers today, although Martinez is more likely to best that amount.
Jacob deGrom is coming off a mediocre platform year (for arbitration purposes) where he only won seven games amidst throwing 148 innings. Although his ERA was 3.04, lack of counting stats is likely to hurt his arbitration case. His career numbers may offset this—he has 30 career wins and a 2.74 ERA across 479.1 innings and has struck out 492 batters. He also won Rookie of the Year in 2014. His projection is $4.5 million, although I think there is good reason to believe that he will fall short of this.
Carlos Martinez has a much stronger case, and is projected to earn $5.3 million. He went 16-9 with a 3.04 ERA in 195.1 innings with 174 strikeouts, and has a career 34-21 record with a 3.32 ERA in 492.2 innings with 466 strikeouts. Few pitchers can match his performance, and he may be able to top the old record of $4.35 million, although he will come nowhere near the new record. The peculiarity of Martinez’ case is that is that there are no comparable pitchers with salaries in the range between $4.35 and $7.25, so he will be filling in some empty space if he does exceed the old Willis number.
In the last five years, there have only been five pitchers who had 25 career wins, 400 career innings, 400 career strikeouts, and career ERAs under 3.50 who did not sign multi-year deals. All five received between $3.97 and $4.35 million in arbitration. These include Shelby Miller at $4.35 million, Matt Harvey at $4.32 million, Doug Fister and Alex Cobb both at $4 million, and Stephen Strasburg at $3.97 million.
It is difficult to see a good reason why Jacob deGrom would earn above or below this range as a result. Although he had slightly fewer innings than all of them, Doug Fister in 2013 was coming off just 161.2 innings and Alex Cobb was coming off 166.1 innings. Both won 10 games, more than deGrom’s seven, but neither had a Rookie of the Year Award under his belt and deGrom’s career ERA is lower than both of theirs. He also has more strikeouts than either had in their careers at this point as well. As a result, I think he will probably top their $4 million salaries.
I think deGrom will struggle to top Matt Harvey’s $4.32 million from last season, though. Harvey had a better career ERA and a better platform ERA, along with many more platform innings. Something around $4.2 million seems likely for deGrom—below his $4.5 million projection.
Martinez, on the other hand, does seem like a likely candidate to top the five aforementioned starters’ earnings. None of them had more than 13 platform year wins, and Martinez had 16. His 3.04 ERA is in the middle of the pack for the group, but his 195.1 innings total is only bested by Miller. His 34 career wins are bested by Alex Cobb, but exceed the other four starters. His innings and strikeouts are similar to them as well.
All things considered, he has a clear cut case to beat the $4.35 million mark. Comparing him to Shelby Miller alone, he went 16-9 as compared with Miller’s 6-17 in his platform year. His platform year ERA was nearly identical and he threw only 10 less innings but had three more strikeouts than Miller. In his career, he has two more wins than Miller but 14 fewer losses. He also has a relatively similar ERA. Although he has thrown about eighty fewer innings, he has only struck out seventeen fewer batters. Martinez is likely to succeed in asking for a number higher than Miller’s $4.35. But given that the main difference is ten platform year wins, I believe he will probably not get the $5.3 million projection my model estimates. I think something between $4.5 and $5 million is likely for Martinez.
Both of these pitchers are projected for slightly more than they will probably earn. The symbolic barrier at $4.35 million is still a factor despite Keuchel’s new record, which was set up by his 232 innings of 2.48 ERA pitching and the hardware to match. Because of that, the model is likely to miss on starting pitchers near that until that symbolic barrier has been passed enough times.
Phillies Open To Adding Veteran Bat
TODAY: Philadelphia has no realistic interest in Bautista, per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki. However, the other players mentioned previously — Saunders, Moss, and Bruce — are all said to be plausible targets.
YESTERDAY: The Phillies are still open to the idea of adding a veteran bat — likely an outfielder/first baseman — to their relatively young lineup, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Among the potential free-agent targets are Jose Bautista, Michael Saunders and Brandon Moss, although the Phils are reluctant to surrender their second-round draft pick (their first-rounder is protected) in order to add Bautista, Rosenthal adds. FanRag’s Jon Heyman wrote last week that the Phillies have some interest in Moss and would prefer any bat they add to be of the left-handed variety, and earlier today, CSN Philly’s Jim Salisbury called the addition of another bat “likely,” speculating that Saunders and Moss could be potential targets.
Rosenthal also reports that a trade for Mets right fielder Jay Bruce is something the Phillies would consider, so long as they weren’t required to part with any significant prospects or MLB assets in the deal. (He brings up the trade that sent Darin Ruf and Darnell Sweeney to the Dodgers in exchange for Howie Kendrick and the trade of minor leaguer Josh Tobias to the Red Sox for Clay Buchholz as points of reference.)
[Related: Philadelphia Phillies Depth Chart]
Any of the four listed options would give the Phillies an alternative in right field to the current trio of Aaron Altherr, Tyler Goeddel and Roman Quinn, who figure to compete for outfield playing time this spring. Kendrick is likely to man left field, while the recently extended Odubel Herrera is poised to reprise his role as Philadelphia’s everyday center fielder. While adding a veteran could, in the eyes of some fans, block that trio, there’s certainly a case that each could use additional time in the minor leagues to develop.
Altherr, 26 later this month, missed most of the 2016 season due to a wrist injury and batted a woeful .197/.300/.288 in 227 plate appearances upon returning. He’s also tallied just 53 Triple-A games in his young career. Goeddel, who spent the entire season on the Phillies’ roster due to his status as a Rule 5 pick, looked more than overmatched at the plate, hitting just .192/.258/.291 in 234 trips to the plate. And while Quinn looked sharp in a 15-game September cameo, the 23-year-old speedster jumped from Double-A to the Majors and has yet to make even a single plate appearance in Triple-A.
Rosenthal does note that the Phillies aren’t keen on blocking any of their young players by handing out a long-term contract, implying that a one-year commitment to any of the free agents would be the likeliest option. (Bruce, meanwhile, is under contract for just one more season at $13MM and will be a free agent next winter.) Minimizing the commitment would allow GM Matt Klentak and president Andy MacPhail to keep multiple outfield spots open for the 2018 season, when the Phillies will have a better idea of what they can expect from players like Altherr, Quinn, Goeddel and prospects Nick Williams and Dylan Cozens. And, adding a veteran bat on a short-term commitment will of course give the still-rebuilding Phillies a potential midseason trade chip in the event that he performs well and generates interest from contenders in need of offensive improvements.
Bruce and Saunders figure to be strict outfield options, but there’s been some thought that a signing club could put Bautista at first base on occasion, and Moss of course has plenty of experience at that position himself. Moss would, in my mind, represent the best fit, as he’d also give the Phillies a potential platoon partner for Tommy Joseph (as Rosenthal also points out) while allowing the team to give a younger option a look in the outfield should he prove himself ready with a strong minor league performance.
Lastly, from a financial standpoint, the Phillies can comfortably afford to add any of the listed players. MLBTR’s Jason Martinez projects a modest $104MM payroll for the Phils over at Roster Resource — a drastic reduction from the $177MM Opening Day payroll the team carried as recently as 2014. Furthermore, the only guaranteed contract on the books beyond the 2017 season is that of Herrera, as veterans like Buchholz, Kendrick, Jeremy Hellickson, Joaquin Benoit, Pat Neshek and Andres Blanco are all on one-year pacts. Adding another one-year commitment to the ledger would allow the Phils to maintain plenty of flexibility as the team looks to continue adding to its young core and eyes a return to prominence in the NL East.
3 Remaining Needs: National League East
To set the stage for the remainder of the offseason, we’ll take a look at the most pressing remaining needs of every team in baseball over the coming week or so, division by division. (Hat tip to MLBTR commenter mike156 for the idea.) We often discuss things through the lens of an organization’s trajectory; thus, a rebuilding team might “need” to move some salary, while a contender might “need” an expensive starter. But with camp in sight, every club is making final calls on who’ll compete for big league jobs in the season to come (while also pursuing broader opportunities), so the focus here is on specific positions on the MLB roster. Fortunately, the task of roster analysis is made much easier by the MLB depth charts available at RosterResource.com. Each team listed below is linked to its respective depth chart, so you can take a look for yourself.
In the first two editions of this series, Jeff Todd broke down the NL West and Mark Polishuk examined the AL East. Now a look at where the NL East’s five teams stand as the calendar flips:
- Bullpen: With Mark Melancon gone, the Nationals are currently projected to rely on Shawn Kelley (11 career saves) as their closer. Based on his output the past couple seasons, Kelley is worthy of the role, but there are durability concerns with the soon-to-be 33-year-old. Kelley has never thrown more than the 58 frames he tossed last season; more alarmingly, he’s a two-time Tommy John surgery recipient who, per a study done by MLBTR contributor Bradley Woodrum, comes with an elevated risk to eventually need another procedure. Even without Kelley’s injury history, acquiring relief help is in order. Washington got a combined 242 2/3 innings last season from Melancon, Yusmeiro Petit, Felipe Rivero, Matt Belisle, Jonathan Papelbon, Reynaldo Lopez and Marc Rzepczynski. Not a single one of them is a member of the organization anymore. Therefore, it would make sense to add at least one more veteran to the likes of Kelley, Blake Treinen, Sammy Solis and Oliver Perez. The club already tried to re-sign Melancon and reel in Kenley Jansen, but those attempts failed. Even with those two off the board, free agency is hardly bereft of options. In the event Washington decides to stick with in-house choices, it has a couple intriguing youngsters in Koda Glover and Trevor Gott.
- Infield Depth: The Nationals’ infield depth took a hit with the loss of Danny Espinosa, and current free agent Stephen Drew could also be in another uniform next season. Either re-upping Drew, which is a possibility, or signing another veteran would give the team more proven insurance than Wilmer Difo (77 career plate appearances) behind second baseman Daniel Murphy, shortstop Trea Turner and third baseman Anthony Rendon. Murphy is capable of playing first base if Ryan Zimmerman endures another poor year or suffers an injury in 2017, but that would leave the team wanting at the keystone.
- Rotation Depth: In trading Lopez and Lucas Giolito to the White Sox for outfielder Adam Eaton, the Nats subtracted some of their starting pitching depth. That’s somewhat concerning given that starters Stephen Strasburg and Joe Ross are coming off injury-plagued years, which perhaps increases the need to add rotation insurance behind those two, Max Scherzer, Tanner Roark and Gio Gonzalez. A.J. Cole and Austin Voth might suffice thereafter, but there’s very little of intrigue beyond them (Double-A prospect Erick Fedde could crack the major leagues sometime next season, granted). The Nationals had an established veteran starter in camp last year in Bronson Arroyo, who ended up missing 2016 because of injuries, and could look for a similar depth option prior to next season.
- Outfield: There are only two corner outfield spots, yet the Mets arguably have four starting-caliber players on hand in Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto and Jay Bruce. Cespedes isn’t going anywhere, obviously, and Conforto’s place on the roster appears secure. The writing is on the wall, then, for either Granderson or Bruce (very likely the latter) to exit the organization via trade by next season. The Mets have been reluctant to deal Bruce without getting anything useful in return, but they might have to settle for dumping his salary in order to clear their corner outfield logjam and free up spending room. In doing so, New York would still face uncertainty in center field. Juan Lagares has fallen off since a strong 2014 showing that led the Mets to sign him to a four-year extension with $23MM in guarantees. Cespedes and Granderson also have experience in center, but neither is an ideal fit there. The Pirates’ Andrew McCutchen has come up as a trade possibility, but he was a defensive nightmare last season and the Mets aren’t actively looking to acquire him (or any other center fielder), anyway.
- Right-Handed Reliever: The Mets are going to lose closer Jeurys Familia to at least a month-long suspension, which will leave the team with Addison Reed and Hansel Robles as its go-to choices to preserve late leads. Mindful of that, general manager Sandy Alderson has checked in on the likes of Wade Davis (before the Royals traded him to the Cubs), Brad Brach (Orioles) and Alex Colome (Rays) on the trade front this winter, but nothing has materialized. White Sox closer David Robertson represents another possible acquisition, though he’d be a costly pickup. There are still appealing names on the open market, where Greg Holland, Joe Blanton, Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, Neftali Feliz and 2016 Met Fernando Salas are among those without contracts.
- Left-Handed Reliever: New York has three lefty relievers on its projected 25-man roster in Josh Edgin, Josh Smoker and Sean Gilmartin, but none had encouraging 2016 campaigns (in fairness to Edgin, he was on the rebound from 2015 Tommy John surgery and finished the year well). Jerry Blevins was terrific last season, but he’s now a free agent and, along with Boone Logan, one of the top two southpaw setup men left in free agency. The Mets have shown interest in each this offseason, but payroll limitations have prevented them from signing either (presumably, they’ve also stood in the way of securing right-handed help).
- Starting Pitcher: Forced to forge ahead without the late, great Jose Fernandez, the Marlins have made a couple unexciting additions to their rotation this winter with the signings of Edinson Volquez and Jeff Locke. They now have a full starting five on paper with those two joining Wei-Yin Chen, Adam Conley and Tom Koehler, but it’s not the most confidence-inspiring group. With that in mind, Miami is still in the market for a starter, though it’s seemingly limiting itself to low-cost depth types. Luckily for the Marlins, there are plenty of those left in free agency.
- First Base: As long as they’re facing a right-handed pitcher, the Marlins are in fine shape at first base with Justin Bour. But, in an admittedly small sample size of 110 major league plate appearances, the lefty-swinging Bour has struggled mightily against southpaw hurlers (.223/.273/.291, no home runs). Thus, it would behoove the Fish to find a better platoon partner for Bour than the penciled-in Miguel Rojas – although a righty, he has posted a woeful .184/.225/.272 line versus lefties in 122 PAs. Any of Dae-ho Lee, Mark Reynolds, Trevor Plouffe, Adam Rosales or 2016 Marlin Chris Johnson could be realistic targets via free agency. Miami hasn’t closed the door on re-signing Johnson, who – despite a subpar 2016 – has historically held his own against lefties.
- Left-Handed Reliever: It’s not a must for the Marlins to find a southpaw reliever, as their most prominent righty options – A.J. Ramos, Brad Ziegler, David Phelps, Kyle Barraclough and Junichi Tazawa – are capable of getting all hitters out. Nevertheless, it would be nice for the club to have more than one left-handed reliever on its 40-man roster. As of now, only Hunter Cervenka is in the fold, though same-sided batters hit a paltry .198/.306/.318 against the then-rookie last season. Signing a free agent like Javier Lopez could make sense; even though the longtime Giant’s coming off a season to forget, he has a lengthy track record of success preventing runs and would like to remain close to his Georgia home.
- Third Base: Their interest in Brian Dozier notwithstanding, the Braves appear to have a respectable offensive platoon lined up at second base with Jace Peterson and Sean Rodriguez. On the other side of the diamond, finding a complement to right-handed-hitting third baseman Adonis Garcia would be beneficial. Garcia has hit an underwhelming .262/.293/.407 in 152 trips to the plate against righties, while reserve Chase d’Arnaud (also a righty) hasn’t done any better (.218/.278/.278 in 279 PAs). Free agent Luis Valbuena is a potential fit, but he’s an upgrade over Garcia in general and would warrant an everyday role. Otherwise, the aforementioned Stephen Drew – a left-handed hitter and Georgia native – could be a reasonable free agent target to pair with Garcia.
- Bullpen: As it stands, the Braves’ sole 30-something reliever is closer Jim Johnson, with Arodys Vizcaino and Ian Krol serving as only semi-established options. While it’s quite possible the Braves are comfortable with a mostly young bullpen that will also include Mauricio Cabrera and Jose Ramirez, among others, signing one of the many available veterans on a short-term deal would have a chance to pay dividends over the long haul. For example, the Braves could take a similar approach to last year’s Padres, who bought low on Fernando Rodney, got a few good months out of him and flipped him for a prospect prior to the trade deadline. That’s assuming the Braves aren’t contenders next year, of course.
- Catcher: With Tyler Flowers and Anthony Recker in the equation, this arguably isn’t a pressing short-term need for a rebuilding club, but free agent backstop Matt Wieters is nonetheless on Atlanta’s radar. It’s debatable how much of an upgrade (if at all) the ex-Georgia Tech star would be over Flowers, though. Wieters, unlike Flowers, is not a well-regarded pitch framer, and the longtime Oriole is coming off one of his worst offensive seasons. If Atlanta doesn’t land the switch-hitting Wieters, it’ll likely be content to roll with Flowers and Recker next season.
- Corner Outfield: The Phillies’ most proven corner outfield bat belongs to Howie Kendrick, who has played 1,100 games at second base compared to just 114 in left field and is coming off a below-average offensive year. While the rebuilding club could simply utilize Kendrick and younger players like Roman Quinn, Aaron Altherr and Tyler Goeddel (the latter two were dreadful in 2016) next season, dipping into free agency for another outfielder remains a possibility. If general manager Matt Klentak does sign anyone, odds are it’ll be a left-handed hitter. Of the previously mentioned four, only the switch-hitting Quinn is capable of batting from the left side.
- Bullpen: Klentak has revealed he’s looking for more relief help, though he has already been busy on that front throughout the offseason. Philadelphia has acquired three stopgaps in Joaquin Benoit, Pat Neshek and Sean Burnett (on a minor league deal), but its projected major league bullpen could stand to make improvements beyond Benoit, Neshek, Hector Neris and Jeanmar Gomez.
- Left-Handed Starter: The Phillies’ starting five at the moment features nothing but right-handers, and Adam Morgan is their only Triple-A starter who’s a southpaw. Perhaps it would be logical to sign a swingman like Travis Wood, who could initially work out of the bullpen (joining fellow lefty Joely Rodriguez) and then potentially factor into the rotation if someone suffers an injury or underperforms.
NL Notes: Giants, Mets, Rockies, Cardinals
Giants GM Bobby Evans tells Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle that Mike Morse was the one to reach out to the team about a possible minor league contract, and not vice versa. As Schulman notes, Morse spent much of the 2016 season in apparent retirement after being cut loose by the Pirates, but it seems he’s not quite ready to call it quits just yet. Morse is somewhat of a long shot to make the roster in Spring Training, and Schulman writes that Evans did not receive an indication of whether Morse would be willing to go to Triple-A if he doesn’t make the Opening Day roster. As it stands, he’ll compete with Jarrett Parker and Mac Williamson for an outfield role. The Giants make plenty of sense as a landing spot for a corner outfielder right now, but Evans suggested to Schulman that he doesn’t plan to sign a big bat for the outfield. San Francisco will monitor what is a buyers’ market for corner outfielders in the months leading up to Spring Training, though, Schulman adds.
A few more notes from around the National League…
- Mets GM Sandy Alderson tells Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News that he doesn’t envision beginning extension talks with any of the team’s young rotation arms until Spring Training begins. “We’re not thinking about it now, it really hasn’t been our focus,” said Alderson. “It’s probably not something that is going to happen before we head to spring training.” Among Mets starters, Matt Harvey is in his second year of arbitration and is controlled through 2018, while Jacob deGrom is in his first trip through arbitration (as a Super Two player) and is controlled through 2020. However, both pitchers underwent season-ending surgery in 2016 — thoracic outlet syndrome for Harvey and an ulnar nerve repair for deGrom — so the Mets may want to see how they rebound from a medical perspective before engaging in talks. Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz both stand out as logical extension candidates as well, as neither has reached arbitration yet, which could give a bit of extra incentive to talk long-term. Both pitchers are controlled through the 2021 season.
- MLB.com’s Thomas Harding runs down a number of roster questions for the Rockies in his later Inbox column, noting within that he still expects GM Jeff Bridich to add another reliever either via trade or free agency. Harding also writes that Bridich is considering the possibility of adding a veteran catcher prior to Spring Training as well. The Rox have been asking for potential front-of-the-rotation pitchers in trade talks for Charlie Blackmon, Harding adds, which explains to some degree why the Rockies don’t appear to have had much in the way of advanced trade talks regarding Blackmon. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $9MM salary for Blackmon next year. He’s controlled through 2018 via arbitration and is fresh off a career year in which he slashed .324/.381/.552 with 29 homers and 17 steals.
- While some Cardinals fans were frustrated that the team didn’t make a big play for Edwin Encarnacion, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch dispels the notion that St. Louis’ lack of a push for Encarnacion was due to financial reasons. Goold reports that the Cardinals’ upcoming increase in television revenue — the team agreed to a $1.1 billion television contract in July 2015 — will give the team about $20MM more in rights fees in 2018 than it will earn in 2017. The column provides an excellent breakdown of the Cardinals’ payroll, noting that just under $46MM is coming off the books from 2016 while just over $47MM has been added to the 2017 ledger. The Cardinals certainly have the capacity to increase spending, Goold writes, but in the case of Encarnacion they simply weren’t all that interested in him as a player (at least not at his price tag). Per Goold, St. Louis’ interest in Encarnacion was only “mild.” (It doesn’t seem that the Cards are abandoning the idea of adding some right-handed pop to the lineup, though, as they were rumored to be “very much” in the mix for Twins second Brian Dozier earlier this afternoon.)