Mets Intend To Open Season With Jay Bruce On Roster
Jay Bruce has been one of the most oft-mentioned trade candidates of the offseason, but the Mets have now informed him that they plan to open the season with him in right field, reports Ken Davidoff of the New York Post.
Set to turn 30 in April, Bruce hit .250/.309/.506 with 33 homers on the season as a whole last year but wilted with the Mets, slumping to a .219/.294/.391 batting line. That marked his second straight year with a late-season collapse at the plate (.178/.219/.357 from Aug. 1 through season’s end in 2015), which can’t have made trading him any easier for GM Sandy Alderson this winter. Also complicating matters is the fact that his once-premium defensive ratings in right field have tumbled since undergoing knee surgery in April 2014.
Bruce was always a fairly redundant asset with the Mets, as Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto are both, like Bruce, left-handed-hitting corner outfielders. Nonetheless, the uncertainty surrounding Yoenis Cespedes‘ future in Queens prompted the Mets to exercise Bruce’s $13MM option as a safety net. When Cespedes re-signed on a four-year deal on Nov. 30, Bruce looked to be the odd man out.
Any market for Bruce, though, was slowed by a free-agent market that was rife with defensively limited sluggers that could be had at lower rates. Brandon Moss, for example, remains available to this day, while Michael Saunders signed a one-year, $9MM deal with the Phillies that is more affordable than Bruce’s deal. (The Phillies were said to have some interest in a Bruce trade prior to that signing.) The Mets reportedly never warmed to the idea of absorbing some of Bruce’s salary to facilitate a trade, and they also were reported to be seeking two prospects in exchange for Bruce at last check.
Retaining Bruce creates a familiar logjam in a New York outfield that figures to come with some defensive concerns. While Cespedes and Juan Lagares will provide quality glovework when the Mets face a left-handed starter, the Mets will presumably deploy Cespedes, Granderson and Bruce (from left to right) against right-handed starters.
Keeping Bruce in the fold also brings into question Conforto’s immediate role with the team. The Mets will look at both Bruce and Conforto at first base in Spring Training, according to Davidoff, but they also have Lucas Duda returning from a back injury. Duda is slated to earn $7.25MM and figures to be the regular first baseman if healthy, which could push Conforto to the bench or back to Triple-A Las Vegas. Conforto does have a minor league option remaining and has only spent 33 games in Triple-A in his career, so perhaps some additional time there would serve him well. He did, after all, struggle at the plate in his sophomore campaign. Then again, Conforto advocates can point to the fact that he’s a career .330/.402/.522 hitter in the minors that slashed .422/.483/.727 in 144 Triple-A plate appearances last season, creating an argument that he should be getting another chance in the Majors.
Of course, having depth is hardly a bad thing for the Mets, who now look like they’ll have a quality reserve option (Conforto) in the event that one of their outfielders gets hurt. Alternatively, an injury to an outfielder on another club could lead to some late interest for Bruce. Davidoff notes that the Mets “would of course slam the brakes … if a late suitor presented an interesting trade package, but that appears a long shot.” Most clubs looking to add a notable corner outfielder have already filled that void, although the Blue Jays and Giants could both plausibly look at Bruce as a left field option. (That’s just speculation, although the Jays have been linked to Bruce frequently over the past calendar year.)
By hanging onto Bruce and his $13MM salary, the Mets look poised to enter the season with a projected $146MM payroll. They’ve reportedly been waiting to move Bruce before pursuing additional help for their bullpen, but they’ll now be faced with the decision of pushing their payroll to record levels or sticking with internal options. Davidoff writes that left-hander Jerry Blevins is “clearly” interested in returning to the Mets. However, the market for left-handed relievers has been strong (see: Brett Cecil, Mike Dunn and Marc Rzepczynski), and Blevins could yet be in line for a multi-year deal.
There could be lower-cost options; J.P. Howell, Javier Lopez and old friend Chris Capuano are still available, as is Charlie Furbush, who underwent surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff in August and is still on the mend. The trade market and the spring waiver wire, of course, could present further avenues to obtaining some left-handed relief help. Failing that, the Mets’ internal options include Sean Gilmartin, Josh Edgin, Josh Smoker and non-roster invite Adam Wilk.
NL East Notes: Volquez, Bruce, Braves, Nola
We at MLBTR would like to extend our most heartfelt condolences to Marlins right-hander Edinson Volquez, whose 25-year-old brother, Brandy, was stabbed and killed earlier today in Volquez’s native Dominican Republic, per a report from Emmanuel Rosario of QuisqueyanoSports.com and this one from ESPN. A suspect is reportedly in custody. It’s been a rough couple of years for Volquez and his family, as Volquez’s father passed away just prior to his son’s start for the Royals in Game 1 of the 2015 World Series.
As we keep Volquez and his family in our thoughts, here are a few more notes from the NL East…
- Recent agreements by the Blue Jays (Jose Bautista) and Phillies (Michael Saunders) have caused the Mets‘ potential trade options for right fielder Jay Bruce to dwindle, writes Mike Puma of the New York Post. (I’d also note the Orioles’ acquisition of Seth Smith in that list of deterrents to a Bruce swap.) The Giants and Rangers could be the only two remaining plausible landing spots for Bruce, Puma continues, noting that each team has had previous interest in Bruce. However, according to Puma, Mets general manager Sandy Alderson has not yet shown a willingness to absorb any of Bruce’s $13MM salary in a trade, which only further exacerbates the difficulty of trading him in a market flooded with cheaper corner options. Puma speculates that the Mets may be forced to open the season with Bruce on the roster and look to move him early in the regular season, as they did with Ike Davis back in 2014.
- Braves general manager John Coppolella spoke to David Laurila of Fangraphs about his slew of trades this offseason, discussing topics such as longstanding interest in the prospects acquired by Atlanta, moving Alex Jackson back to catcher, and negotiating trades with Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto. Coppolella says that the Braves had a folder on left-hander Thomas Burrows, acquired in last week’s Mallex Smith trade, on their table on draft day before he was selected by the Mariners in the fourth round. “…[W]e literally had our pockets picked by Seattle,” Coppolella said. He also acknowledged interest in lefty Luiz Gohara dating back to his amateur days in 2012 before Gohara agreed to sign in Seattle. Of Dipoto, Coppolella offered high praise. “It’s worth noting that Jerry is extremely professional about returning calls and texts, open to ideas, and not afraid to make moves, particularly in terms of trading prospects,” he said. “It’s amazing how many conversations get shot down almost immediately, but Jerry will listen and engage.” I’d highly recommend a full read-through not just for Braves and Mariners fans but for any fans that want a bit of a behind-the-scenes look on the player movement.
- Right-hander Aaron Nola tells MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki that he’s healthy and ready to go for Spring Training. The Phillies aren’t placing any restrictions on the former No. 7 overall pick, Zolecki adds, which is certainly good news for Phils fans after Nola’s season ended prematurely due to a “low grade” UCL and flexor strain. Nola, 23, was in the midst of an excellent year before his performance rapidly declined in early June. Through June 5, Nola had turned in a 2.65 ERA with 9.8 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and a 53.9 percent ground-ball rate in 78 innings (12 starts). Over his next (and final) eight starts, though, Nola logged a ghastly 9.82 ERA in just 33 innings. His walk rate more than doubled over those eight starts (3.8 BB/9), and Nola also hit five batters in that short time frame as well. If healthy in 2017, he figures to be a critical component to a Phillies rotation that’ll also feature Jerad Eickhoff, Vince Velasquez, the returning Jeremy Hellickson and the newly acquired Clay Buchholz.
Trade/Free Agent Rumblings: Bruce, Mets, Braun, Breslow, De La Rosa
The Mets are reportedly asking for two prospects in exchange for Jay Bruce, CSNPhilly.com’s Jim Salisbury reports. The Phillies have shown interest in Bruce in the past, though Salisbury points out that the rebuilding Phils could simply sign left-handed hitting free agents like Brandon Moss or Michael Saunders rather than part with minor league talent for Bruce. Of course, New York would hardly be demanding premium prospects for Bruce at this point, given how the outfielder hasn’t drummed up much trade interest this winter.
Here’s more player movement buzz from around baseball…
- There hasn’t been much interest in Ryan Braun this winter, which Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com attributes in part to some lingering hard feelings over how Braun’s representatives conducted themselves when he was trying to avoid a PED suspension in 2013. Perhaps a larger factor, of course, is the crowded outfield market. As one GM noted to Gammons, a team looking to add corner outfield power could prefer to sign the likes of Jose Bautista or Mark Trumbo rather than pay a hefty price in both prospects and contract by acquiring Braun from the Brewers.
- Also from Gammons, he reports that the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers and Red Sox will be among the 12-20 teams watching Craig Breslow‘s showcase on January 23. Breslow has adopted new pitch-tracking technology in order to reinvent his throwing habits, with input from training partner Rich Hill (who revived his career in spectacular fashion).
- The Rockies aren’t interested in a reunion with Jorge de la Rosa, the Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders reports as part of a reader mailbag column. A longtime fixture of the Colorado rotation, de la Rosa has told teams he is willing to pitch as a starter, long reliever or swingman in order to increase his market. This flexibility doesn’t appear to appeal to the Rockies, though Saunders notes elsewhere in the mailbag that the team could use some rotation depth and more bullpen help.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League
Quite frankly, there were too many arbitration agreements today to reasonably stuff into one post. So here’s a rundown of the National League players that have avoided arbitration on smaller deals (American League deals here). You can see all of the arbitration “action” thus far in a sortable, filterable format by checking out MLBTR’s 2017 Arbitration Tracker. All projections referenced in this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:
- Wily Peralta and Carlos Torres have agreed to one-year deals, according to the team’s Twitter account. Peralta will earn $4.275MM (compared to $4.4MM projection), per Heyman. Torres was projected to make $2MM, but will get slightly more at $2.175MM, per Chris Cotillo of SB Nation (via Twitter).
- Reliever George Kontos gets $1.75MM from the Giants, Heyman tweets. He had projected at $1.7MM.
- The Diamondbacks also reached agreement with lefty Patrick Corbin, righty Randall Delgado, and catcher Chris Herrmann, per Jack Magruder of Fan Rag (links to Twitter). Delgado gets $1.775MM and Herrmann receives $937,500. As for Corbin, he’ll take home $3.95MM, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (via Twitter), which falls a bit shy of his $4.2MM projection.
- Infielder Eduardo Nunez will receive $4.2MM from the Giants, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). San Francisco has also reached agreement with lefty Will Smith, per Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). He’ll receive $2.5MM, just over his $2.3MM projection, Heyman tweets.
- The Phillies settled at $4.2MM with righty Jeanmar Gomez, per Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer (via Twitter). He falls just a big shy of his $4.6MM projection.
- The Cardinals have announced arb deals with Trevor Rosenthal and Kevin Siegrist. Rosenthal receives $6.4MM, per Heyman (via Twitter), which is just $100K over his projection. Siegrist projected at $1.9MM, but his salary has yet to be reported.
- Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom have each avoided arbitration with the Mets. Harvey gets $5.125MM in his second arb year, per James Wagner of the New York Times (via Twitter). Meanwhile, deGrom will receive $4.05MM in his first trip through the arb process, per ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin (via Twitter). New York has also agreed with lefty Josh Edgin, Rubin tweets, though terms remain unreported.
Earlier Updates
Mets Avoid Arbitration With Jeurys Familia
The Mets have avoided arbitration with closer Jeurys Familia, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). The righty will receive a $7.425MM salary.
The 27-year-old Familia had another strong season on the mound in 2016, providing 77 2/3 innings of 2.55 ERA pitching with 9.7 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9. Importantly, for arbitration purposes, he also recorded a hefty tally of 51 saves.
MLBTR had projected Familia to earn $8.7MM in 2017 after his productive campaign. But the second-time arb-eligible pitcher is facing a possible suspension after being charged over the offseason in a domestic violence incident. Though the charges were dropped, and the matter doesn’t technically impact his case, it may well be that the team had some extra leverage to exert.
Mets Avoid Arbitration With Duda, Reed, Familia
JAN. 13: The Mets have also avoided arb with setup man Addison Reed and closer Jeurys Familia, per a pair of reports from Heyman and James Wagner of the New York Times (Twitter links). Reed will earn $7.75MM and Familia will take home $7.425MM. Familia was projected to earn $8.7MM and came in a fair bit shy of that sum, while Reed’s unique background somewhat “broke” MLBTR’s arbitration model and resulted in a $10.6MM projection. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who designed the model, explained earlier this week why Reed’s case was something of an outlier and suggested at the time that a salary in the range of $8MM was more likely.
JAN. 12: The Mets have avoided arbitration with first baseman Lucas Duda, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). Duda will receive $7.25MM in the deal.
That’s a fairly healthy bump over the MLBTR projection of $6.725MM, which would have been a repeat of Duda’s 2016 salary. Ultimately, he’ll get about half a million more after an injury-limited season in which he took just 172 plate appearances.
Duda will be looking to get on track before hitting the open market after the season. First, he’ll need to return to health after a long layoff due to back surgery. If he’s able to do that, there’s certainly reason to think he can be a productive bat at first base. Between 2014 and 2015, he slashed .249/.350/.483 with 57 home runs.
Mets, Orioles To Employ “File-And-Trial” Arbitration Approach
The Mets and Orioles will adopt a “file-and-trial” approach to their arbitration-eligible players this year, as Marc Carig of Newsday (via Twitter) and Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun (also on Twitter) report. That means that the organizations will only negotiate with players up until tomorrow’s 1pm EST deadline to exchange filing figures; if no deal is found with a given player, they’ll take the case to arbitration.
MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explained the “file-and-trial” stance a few years back. Some organizations adopt it as a blanket rule, with at least some of those willing to make exceptions only in cases of multi-year arrangements. Others will utilize it on a case-by-case basis, notifying certain players of that intention in the course of negotiations.
It’s always tough to keep tabs on precisely which teams utilize this strategy, and it can certainly change — especially with front office turnover. At last check, though, file-and-trial teams include the Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Marlins, Rays, and White Sox. And there are at least five others that seem to take that approach with some players: the Brewers, Indians, Nationals, Pirates, and Reds.
By adopting this approach, the New York and Baltimore organizations have turned up the heat on their final talks with arb-eligible players. As things stand, the O’s have yet to reach terms with a variety of notable players, led by Zach Britton, Manny Machado, Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, and Jonathan Schoop. The club also has to work out salaries with Brad Brach and Caleb Joseph. It’s not an easy season for the Mets, either; they have yet to settle with Addison Reed, Jeurys Familia, Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Wilmer Flores, Travis d’Arnaud, and Josh Edgin.
As always, you can view MLBTR’s arbitration projects right here, and track the players who have and haven’t agreed to terms with our arbitration tracker.
Mets, Zack Wheeler Avoid Arbitration
The Mets have reached an agreement with right-hander Zack Wheeler on a one-year deal worth $800K, thus avoiding arbitration, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports (via Twitter).
Wheeler comes in shy of the $1MM projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, although the unique circumstances surrounding his health make him a tricky player to project. Wheeler has undeniable talent and looked to be emerging as an excellent long-term rotation cog for the Mets when he tossed 285 1/3 innings of 3.50 ERA ball from 2013-14. However, he underwent Tommy John surgery in the spring of 2015 and missed the entire 2016 season due to lingering complications in his recovery. This winter marked his first trip through the arbitration process, and he remains controllable through the 2019 season.
The Mets are planning on Wheeler returning to health in 2017, though it’s not known exactly how heavily his arm can be depended upon. Now 26 years old, Wheeler is just one of many talented Mets arms that carries significant injury question marks. Matt Harvey underwent surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome this past summer (and has a Tommy John procedure under his belt as well), while Jacob deGrom had surgery to repair the ulnar nerve in his right arm and Steven Matz underwent surgery to remove bone spurs in his left elbow (to say nothing of left shoulder issues that plagued him late in the year as well). Even ace Noah Syndergaard, who didn’t require any surgery or miss any time this year, was said to be pitching through a small spur in his own elbow.
As it stands, Wheeler could join that quartet in New York’s 2017 rotation, although there’s also been some talk of him working out of the bullpen as he eases back into the rigors of a Major League pitching regimen. If that’s the case, the Mets have a number of alternatives in the fifth spot of the rotation, headed by right-handers Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman. Right-hander Gabriel Ynoa made his big league debut last year as well, and former top prospect Rafael Montero remains a depth option. Southpaw Sean Gilmartin, too, has plenty of experience starting, although he’s worked almost exclusively as a reliever in the Majors.
Market Notes: Ross, Bourn, Braves, Bruce
With plenty of apparent interest, veteran righty Tyson Ross is “taking a methodical approach” to deciding upon his next organization, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports in his latest notes column. Among the elements under consideration are the rehap options and “contractual structures” being proposed. Last we heard, the Rangers and Cubs were pursuing Ross most aggressively, with the Nationals also showing interest. All three clubs, it seems, are also lining up other possibilities in the event that they miss on the talented 29-year-old, who is attempting to work back from thoracic outlet surgery. Chicago, in particular, could turn its attention back to southpaw Travis Wood, notes Rosenthal, who says the team still likes the lefty.
- Meanwhile, per Rosenthal, the Orioles remain interested in Michael Bourn despite adding another left-handed-hitting outfielder in Seth Smith. Baltimore wants to boost the glovework in its outfield mix, he says, and evidently remains favorably disposed toward the veteran after his late-season run with the club in 2016. It’s not immediately clear how things would look if Bourn joins Smith and Hyun Soo Kim as southpaw-swinging options, though presumably either of the existing players could also mix in at DH, while Bourn could also spell Adam Jones in center.
- Though the Braves have added three veteran pieces to their rotation this winter, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman suggests that the club will continue to pursue a controllable, top-flight hurler. He cites Jose Quintana of the White Sox and Chris Archer of the Rays as the likeliest targets; indeed, Atlanta has long been connected to both, among plenty of other organizations. It would surely represent something of a surprise at this point were the Braves to make a major strike for a starter, but the organization has proved willing and able in the past to pull off significant deals at any stage of the year.
- The Mets continue to face a seeming dilemma with outfielder Jay Bruce, who hasn’t generated much demand on the trade market with a variety of power-hitting free agents still available on the open market. Joel Sherman of the New York Post takes a look at the situation, arguing that the club simply needs to make the best deal it can — even if it means eating salary. New York could explore ways to add a reliever in a Bruce swap, he notes, but shouldn’t allow his $13MM salary to get in the way of bolstering the pen.
Arbitration Breakdown: Addison Reed
Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher-profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.
Modeling arbitration salaries is an inexact science, and sometimes “inexact” is too generous of a description. Setup man Addison Reed‘s projected $5.3MM raise to $10.6MM is clearly one of those times. Even worse is that the model was only saved by the “Kimbrel Rule,” which states that a player can only beat the record salary for their service class by $1M in the model. The raw model projected a $5.8MM raise. Reed is going to get a far smaller raise than he projected, because the peculiarities of his case confuse the model so much.
Reed’s case is unique because he has 106 career saves but had 40 holds this year in lieu of working as a closer. Further, he struck out 91 batters in 77.2 innings while posting a microscopic 1.97 ERA. Relievers who have a career of closing success behind them tend to out-earn those who have a single good year as closers. So the model gives credit to career save totals, which boosts Reed’s projection significantly.
He is, however, unlikely to get extra credit for those saves in real life. Remove those career saves, and the model projects him for a $3.6MM raise. That’s still large, but much more reasonable.
Reed’s 40 holds this year put him in elite company on their own. In the last decade, only three relievers entering their third year of arbitration eligibility have even accumulated 30 holds—David Robertson in 2014, Tyler Clippard in 2014, and Mike Adams in 2012. They had 33, 33, and 32 holds, respectively, and earned raises of $2.12MM, $1.88MM, and $1.87MM. Their ERAs were strong as well: 2.04, 2.41, and 1.47, as compared with Reed’s 1.97 ERA total. The extra holds suggest Reed’s raise will be worth significantly more than Robertson’s $2.12MM.
That establishes a floor for Reed, but looking for a ceiling is tricky with a lack of relievers amassing 40 holds or anything near it. To find a potential ceiling, we can look to closers who pitched similarly. Among closers who had ERAs under 2.00 like Reed, only one name emerges from the last five years—Aroldis Chapman. He had 33 saves and a 1.63 ERA in 2015, with 116 strikeouts in 66.1 innings. Chapman got a $3.27MM raise. Although Reed had seven more holds than Chapman did saves, he had a higher ERA and fewer strikeouts.
Putting this together, it makes sense that Reed should fall somewhere between a $2.12 and $3.27MM. I suspect right in the middle at $2.7MM would make sense, putting him at $8MM. It is a far cry from the model’s $10.6MM projection ($11.1MM ignoring the Kimbrel Rule), but it definitely would be a healthy raise for Reed’s third year of eligibility.