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MLBTR Podcast: Examining MLB’s Parity Situation – Also, Bellinger, Peralta, Robert, And Gore

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • Tim’s recent post looking at MLB’s economics and issues of parity (1:20)
  • The possibility of a salary cap coming into existence at some point in the future (5:25)
  • Comparing the salary cap path to alterations to the current revenue sharing system (8:40)
  • The public relations battle with fans knowing all about players and their salaries but not necessarily knowing so much about the owners and their finances (17:35)
  • Is there any hope of the owners working out some new revenue sharing arrangement? (20:45)
  • Are deferrals a massive problem or is the Shohei Ohtani deal just an extreme outlier that had led to increased angst? (26:50)
  • What kind of compromise are we likely to get in the next collective bargaining agreement? (32:45)
  • The Yankees re-signing Cody Bellinger (37:35)
  • The Mets acquiring Freddy Peralta from the Brewers and Luis Robert Jr. from the White Sox (47:20)
  • The Brewers’ end of the Peralta trade (53:20)
  • The White Sox’ end of the Robert deal (56:15)
  • The Rangers sending five prospects to the Nationals to acquire MacKenzie Gore (1:02:00)

Check out our past episodes!

  • What The Tucker And Bichette Contracts Mean For Baseball – Also, Nolan Arenado And Ranger Suarez – listen here
  • The Cubs Land Cabrera And Bregman, Remaining Free Agents, And Skubal’s Arbitration Filing – listen here
  • Contracts For Imai And Okamoto, And Thoughts On The Pirates And Giants – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Michael McLoone, Imagn Images

Cody Bellinger Contract Comes With Higher Luxury Tax Hit For Yankees In First Two Seasons

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The Yankees finalized their five-year, $162.5MM contract with Cody Bellinger last week. That would ordinarily come with a $32.5MM average annual value that counts against the team’s luxury tax ledger. In most cases, a contract’s luxury tax number is taken by dividing the number of guaranteed years from the overall amount of guaranteed money — regardless of the salary distribution. Unlocked performance bonuses or option decisions can subsequently change the calculation, but the AAV is the starting point.

However, as Joel Sherman of The New York Post reports, Bellinger’s deal falls into a rare exception built into the collective bargaining agreement: the “Valley Charge,” as it’s called in the CBA. That only comes into play with a contract that is front-loaded before a player option year or opt-out clause. That applies to the Bellinger contract, which allows him to opt out after the second or third seasons. The next few paragraphs will hopefully explain why that’s the case — though it requires diving into some math and technical terminology within the CBA. Interested readers will also want to check out this X thread courtesy of Ethan Hullihen.

Bellinger’s deal comes with a $20MM signing bonus, which is counted as guaranteed money and is paid in full regardless of whether he opts out.* The outfielder will collect $32.5MM salaries for the first two seasons. The deal comes with respective $25.8MM, $25.8MM and $25.9MM salaries for the final three years if Bellinger does not opt out. He’ll make $85MM over the first two seasons and will have his first opt-out decision with three years and $77.5MM remaining. For CBA purposes, all three years after the opt-out are treated as player option years because Bellinger decides whether to stick with the contract.

To understand the Valley Charge exception, we’ll need to bring over some language from the CBA. The provision applies when the base salary of a player option year “is less than 80% of the base salary … plus attributed signing bonus” of the cheapest year before the opt-out. It’s therefore not a direct comparison. The salaries of the option years range from $25.8MM – 25.9MM. The years before the opt-out include both their $32.5MM salaries and $10MM each year for the prorated signing bonus: a $42.5MM value in total. The value of all three option years are less than 80% of that $42.5MM ($34MM), so they all fall within the Valley Charge.

Once the Valley Charge is triggered, the contract’s luxury tax distribution changes. Turning back to the CBA: “For each such player option year, the difference between the player option year value and the (80% value) shall be allocated pro rata across the years preceding the (opt-out).”

So, we subtract the salaries of each of the option years from the $34MM 80% value of the second season. That comes out to $24.5MM ($8.2MM + $8.2MM + $8.1MM). That’s divided over the two seasons preceding the opt-out at $12.25MM annually and added to the $32.5MM initial value, bringing the new CBT number to $44.75MM. If Bellinger does not opt out, the Yankees will receive “credit” in 2028-30 for the overcharge in the first two seasons, meaning he’d only count against their CBT ledger for roughly $24.33MM annually over the final three years.

RosterResource now projects the Yankees for a tax number above $330MM in 2026. That’s above their $320MM season-ending mark from last year, so it’s not clear how much room ownership will allot for in-season maneuvers.

* The Post’s Jon Heyman reports that the bonus will be paid in $10MM installments on April 1 and August 1 of this year. A player receives his full signing bonus regardless of his opt-out decision. Bellinger’s bonus is up-front, so that’s largely immaterial here, but the date of the bonus payment doesn’t have any impact on the Valley Charge calculation.

Angels Claim Kaleb Ort, Designate Wade Meckler

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The Angels claimed righty Kaleb Ort off waivers from the Yankees, who had previously designated him for assignment, per announcements from both clubs. Outfielder Wade Meckler was designated for assignment in a corresponding move, the Angels announced.

Ort, 34 next week, made his big league debut with the ’21 Red Sox and has pitched in each of the past five major league seasons, the past two as a member of the division-rival Astros. He was excellent with Houston in 2024 but posted shakier numbers with the ’Stros in 2025. Overall, his past two seasons have resulted in a combined 4.08 ERA with a 26.1% strikeout rate, 10.8% walk rate and 38.2% ground-ball rate.

The hard-throwing Ort has averaged 96.8 mph on his four-seamer in that time and notched a strong 12.6% swinging-strike rate, generating plenty of whiffs with his slider, in particular. In addition to a walk rate that’s a bit heavy, Ort has been plagued by a major susceptibility to the long ball. He’s served up 25 round-trippers in 122 1/3 career innings in the majors, including 15 dingers in 70 2/3 frames across the past two seasons in Houston.

Ort is out of minor league options, so the Angels will have to either carry him in their Opening Day bullpen or else remove him from their 40-man roster between now and that point. The Halos are his third organization in as many weeks; Houston designated Ort for assignment in early January, after which he was claimed by the Yankees. He could have some more staying power in Anaheim, where there’s a clear need for bullpen help, but the Angels still need to clear a 40-man spot to make their re-signing of Yoan Moncada official, which could put Ort at risk again. Even if they go another route to open a spot for Moncada, Ort figures to be on the bubble for any subsequent additions to the Angels’ 40-man roster.

As for the 25-year-old Meckler (26 in April), he came to the Angels via waivers just three weeks ago, after the Giants had designated him for assignment. The 2022 eighth-rounder got his feet wet with 20 games and 64 plate appearances just over a year after being drafted. Predictably, he struggled in that initial — and, to this point, only — MLB exposure, hitting .232/.328/.250 in that tiny sample.

Meckler has spent the bulk of the past two seasons in Triple-A and hit well there, combining for 699 plate appearances with a .296/.392/.429 batting line. He doesn’t offer a ton of power (just 11 homers) and has only 21 steals in Triple-A despite plus speed, but Meckler is a high-contact hitter with a knack for drawing free passes. He’s gone down on strikes in just 16.7% of his Triple-A plate appearances against a stout 13.5% walk rate.

Meckler has plenty of experience across all three outfield positions and has seen brief action in the infield, primarily at second base (68 innings this past season). He has one minor league option remaining. A club seeking some speed, OBP and flexible left-handed-hitting outfield depth could take a look, whether via waivers or a small trade. The Angels will have five days to trade him before he has to be placed on waivers, though that waiver placement can also happen anytime in the interim. One way or another, his DFA will be resolved in a week’s time.

Yankees Designate Michael Siani For Assignment

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The Yankees announced Wednesday that they’ve designated outfielder Michael Siani for assignment. His spot on the 40-man roster goes to newly acquired reliever Angel Chivilli, who just came over in a trade with the Rockies.

Siani, 26, was only claimed off waivers five days ago. The Yankees will now presumably hope to pass him through outright waivers and retain him as a defensive-minded depth piece in Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, though no team has been able to get Siani through waivers yet this winter despite multiple attempts.

Siani has bounced around the DFA circuit frequently this offseason, going from the Cardinals, to the Braves, to the Dodgers, to the Yankees since the season ended. He’ll now be traded or placed on waivers within the next five days.

An over-slot fourth-rounder with the Reds back in 2018, Siani has spent his entire playing career in the National League Central. He very briefly debuted with Cincinnati back in 2022 but made only 25 major league plate appearances with his original organization before being claimed off waivers by St. Louis in September of 2023. He was a frequently used, defensive-minded fourth outfielder with the 2024 Cardinals when he logged a career-high 334 plate appearances.

In parts of four major league seasons, Siani owns an anemic .221/.277/.270 batting line (58 wRC+) but good grades for his defense and baserunning. He’s played 1014 major league innings in the outfield — primarily in center but with fleeting corner appearances mixed in — and been credited with overwhelmingly positive marks from Statcast’s Outs Above Average (16) and from Defensive Runs Saved (7). He’s also gone 21-for-26 in stolen base attempts, giving him a success rate of nearly 81%.

The left-handed-hitting Siani still has a minor league option remaining. He could be a pickup for any club looking to bring in a speed-and-defense option off the bench — particularly one who can freely be shuttled between Triple-A and the majors.

Rockies Trade Angel Chivilli To Yankees

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11:06am: The two teams have formally announced the swap. It’s a straight one-for-one deal. The Yankees designated outfielder Michael Siani for assignment to open a 40-man roster spot.

10:45am: The Yankees and Rockies have agreed to a deal that will send reliever Angel Chivilli from Denver to the Bronx in exchange for minor league first baseman T.J. Rumfield, reports Jack Curry of the YES Network.

Chivilli is a hard-throwing 23-year-old righty who has shown an aptitude for missing bats and generating grounders but has yet to find consistent success in the majors. He averaged 97.1 mph on his four-seamer this past season and boasts an outstanding 14.4% swinging-strike rate in his young career, and he’s limited walks at a solid 8.1% clip. However, a penchant for serving up the long ball have undercut those swing-and-miss capabilities and otherwise solid command so far; Chivilli has served up an average of 1.99 homers per nine frames in each of his two partial MLB seasons.

Despite that big swinging-strike rate and a healthy 32.3% opponents’ chase rate on pitches off the plate, Chivilli comes to the Yankees with a below-average 17.4% strikeout rate in his career. His opponents have posted an awful 78.4% contact rate against Chivilli’s pitches that fall within the strike zone — league average in 2025 was 85.4% — but he’s put himself at a disadvantage by falling behind in counts far too often. Chivilli’s career 56.9% first-pitch strike rate (55.6% in 2025) is considerably lower than the 62% league average.

It bears mentioning that Chivilli has struggled more at Coors Field than on the road, though his ERA in both settings (7.06 at home, 5.03 on the road) is sub-par. He’s generated enormous swinging-strike rates on both his changeup (26.3%) and slider (23.4%) but struggled to miss bats with his four-seamer he threw in 2025 or the sinker he threw in 2024.

Though the bottom-line results haven’t been there yet, pitchers with Chivilli’s blend of velocity, command, ground-balls and raw bat-missing ability (even if it hasn’t manifested in big strikeout totals yet) are hard to come by. If the Yankees can coax some more swing-and-miss from one of his heaters and/or get him to throw first-pitch strikes with more frequency, there’s potential for Chivilli to develop into a high-quality late-inning option. He also has a minor league option remaining, so he’s someone the Yanks can send to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre for further refinement if he doesn’t win a bullpen job in spring training.

Chivilli is controllable for at least five more seasons, which adds to his appeal. If he spends any notable time in the minors this year, the Yankees could push that to six full seasons. Chivilli currently has 1.036 years of big league service time, meaning he’ll need to spend 136 days on New York’s major league roster or injured list to remain on track for free agency following the 2030 season. If he spends about one-third of the season in the minors, that free agency timeline would be pushed back to the 2031-32 offseason, though he’d then project as a Super Two player who’d be arbitration-eligible four times rather than the standard three.

In exchange for that development project, the Rockies will pick up an interesting 25-year-old first baseman. Rumfield was blocked in the Bronx by Ben Rice but has a clear path to regular first base work in Colorado if he hits his way into the job. Based on his recent minor league track record, Rumfield has a good chance to do just that.

A 12th-round pick by the Phillies in 2021, Rumfield landed with the Yankees by way of the trade that sent righty Nick Nelson and catcher Donny Sands to Philadelphia. He spent the entire 2025 season with the Yankees’ top affiliate in Scranton, slashing .285/.378/.447 with 16 home runs, 31 doubles, a triple, five stolen bases (seven attempts), a huge 11.9% walk rate and an 18.4% strikeout rate that’s comfortably lower than average. The year prior, Rumfield hit .292/.365/.461 with 15 homers and similar rate stats in 114 Triple-A games.

The left-handed-hitting Rumfield is not yet on the 40-man roster. He went unselected in last month’s Rule 5 Draft despite being eligible. Baseball America ranked him 30th among Yankees prospects this offseason, noting that he makes plenty of contact, is adept at pulling the in the air and plays a fine defensive first base. There was no path to regular playing time for him in the majors with the Yankees, and he lacks the defensive versatility to profile as a true bench option for them. With the Rockies, however, Rumfield will head to camp with a legitimate chance to win the first base job this spring.

At the moment, 28-year-old waiver pickup Troy Johnston and perpetually injured veteran Kris Bryant are among the team’s options at first base. Newly hired president of baseball operations Paul DePodesta recently declined to even fully commit to Bryant being in spring training when asked by Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post, however, stating only: “That will be up to our medical people.”

Johnston has plenty of experience in the outfield corners as well, so even if the Rockies want to give him a real chance on the big league roster — he does have a solid Triple-A track record with the Marlins organization — he could fit into a bench/designated hitter role if Rumfield seizes the first base job.

Rumfield may not be a star in the making, but if he can turn in even average offense and glovework at first base, he’d be a seismic upgrade for a Colorado club that had far and away the worst first base output of any team in MLB — on either side of the ball. Colorado first basemen posted an atrocious .211/.268/.372 batting line in 2025. The resulting 62 wRC+ (indicating that was 38% worse than average at the position after weighting for ballpark) was 15 points south of the 29th-ranked Giants. Former first-rounder Michael Toglia paced the Rockies in first base appearances last year but hit just .190/.258/.353 with a mammoth 39.2% strikeout rate, -3 Defensive Runs Saved and -10 Outs Above Average in 88 games.

Poll: Will The Yankees Trade From Their Outfield?

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After a winter-long staring contest between the Yankees and Cody Bellinger’s camp, the sides have finally reunited on a five-year pact. It’s great news for a Yankees lineup that benefited greatly from Bellinger’s production (125 wRC+, 4.9 fWAR) in 2025, but that news isn’t quite as exciting for the Yankees’ young outfielders. With Trent Grisham (129 wRC+, 3.2 fWAR) back in town via the qualifying offer, Bellinger’s return means it will be tough for former top prospect Jasson Dominguez and current top prospect Spencer Jones to push their way into the lineup.

That might not seem like a significant concern at first glance. After all, the Yankees have only returned the same group of outfielders they worked with last year, and playing time wasn’t a substantial concern for either Jones or Dominguez then. That’s an incomplete look at the situation, however. Slugging DH Giancarlo Stanton missed the first half of the season last year due to an injury impacting both of his elbows, which created ample playing time in the first half of the season for Dominguez. Jones, meanwhile, opened the year at Double-A and wasn’t realistically on the big league radar until near the end of 2025. By the time the trade deadline had passed (Aaron Judge’s brief trip to the injured list notwithstanding), New York was forced to get creative and use Ben Rice behind the plate on occasion just to fit all their players into the lineup.

While that’s not entirely a bad problem to have, it can be challenging for a young player to develop and succeed at the big league level without consistent playing time. That could spell trouble for Dominguez, whose 2025 campaign saw him post a 103 wRC+ with ten homers, 23 steals, and 0.6 fWAR due to lackluster defense in the outfield. That’s decent enough production for a rookie, but not exactly the sort of five-tool superstar he was once lauded as. Getting closer to that ceiling will surely require plenty of in-game reps, and it’s fair to wonder if the team will have enough of those to offer him at this point without an injury occurring. That’s before even considering Jones, who slugged 19 homers in 67 games at Triple-A last year and will certainly be ready for his first taste of big league action sometime this year (if he isn’t already).

With Bellinger, Judge, and Stanton all locked into the outfield/DH mix for years to come while Grisham figures to continue getting regular reps this season, the argument for a trade is fairly clear. If the Yankees could find substantial value on the trade market, it could make plenty of sense to upgrade the infield (where Jose Caballero and Ryan McMahon figure to kick off the season as regulars on the left side), a bullpen that lost both Devin Williams and Luke Weaver to the Mets across town, or even a starting rotation that will be without Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon to open the year.

With that said, it’s unclear just how available many interesting players are at this point. The Yankees missed out on Freddy Peralta and Edward Cabrera already. Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan are not expected to be moved as the Twins work towards competing this year. Someone like Brady Singer could still be available, but it seems unlikely that the Yankees would give up five seasons of Dominguez (never mind six of Jones) for a rental innings eater. Brendan Donovan is available, but he’s been pursued by many teams at this point. Unless the Yankees win the bidding war for Donovan or a shock trade of someone like Tarik Skubal happens, it’s unclear where the Yankees could look to move Dominguez or Jones without selling low.

Perhaps  the Yankees would be best off holding onto both youngsters, at least for the time being. After all, it’s not impossible to imagine playing time opening up in the team’s outfield. Stanton, Judge, and even Bellinger have substantial injury histories, while Grisham was a bench player as recently as 2024. Bellinger is also capable of handling first base, so there are ways to squeeze another outfielder into the lineup even without sitting anyone from that group. Keeping both Jones and Dominguez in order to utilize them as trade chips come July could make sense, as more acute needs could pop up throughout the season due to injuries or other issues. On the other hand, if the team keeps both players in the fold throughout the first half, Grisham would then be only a couple of months away from free agency. At that point, the team might be best served simply holding both players for the whole season.

How do MLBTR readers think the Yankees will handle their glut of outfielders? Should they try and pull off a trade to make sure neither Jones nor Dominguez has their development stunted by a lack of MLB playing time? Or should they hold onto their depth to protect against injuries, at least until the deadline this summer? Have your say in the poll below:

Yankees Claim Dom Hamel; Designate Marco Luciano, Jayvien Sandridge For Assignment

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The Yankees announced that they have claimed right-hander Dom Hamel off waivers from the Rangers. They also designated left-hander Jayvien Sandridge and outfielder Marco Luciano for assignment. The two DFAs open roster spots for Hamel and for Cody Bellinger, whose five-year deal was made official yesterday. Texas designated Hamel for assignment a week ago when they signed Jakob Junis.

Hamel, 27 in March, just made his major league debut not too long ago. He tossed a scoreless inning for the Mets on September 17th, which is still his only big league appearance. Shortly thereafter, the Mets put him on waivers, with the Orioles and Rangers claiming him in quick succession. Texas held him for a few months but put him back on the wire this week.

The righty came up through the Mets’ system as a starting pitcher but a lack of control pushed him to the bullpen in 2025. He logged 67 2/3 innings over 31 Triple-A appearances last year. 11 of those were officially starts but they were mostly in opener style. His 5.32 earned run average wasn’t great but he did strike out 25.2% of batters faced and showed improved control with a 7.4% walk rate. His four-seamer and sinker both averaged in the low 90s while he also mixed in a cutter, slider and changeup.

Hamel still has a couple of options, so the Yankees could keep him as depth in the minors. They could also try putting him back on waivers in the future. He doesn’t have a previous career outright and has less than three years of service time, which means he would not have the right to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency.

Speaking of players getting put back on waivers, that’s been the story of Luciano’s offseason. Once a top prospect, his stock has dropped as he has exhausted his option years. That has pushed him to a fringe roster position and it seems that there are several clubs hoping to be the one to pass him through waivers, at which point he could be kept in the minors as non-roster depth. He finished the 2025 season with the Giants but has subsequently gone to the Pirates, Orioles and Yankees via the waiver wire.

He has a rough career batting line of .217/.286/.304 in his big league career while striking out in 35.7% of his plate appearances. His Triple-A line of .227/.351/.401 is better but came in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League and still saw him strike out 29.6% of the time. He was moved from the middle infield to left field last year, which only put more pressure on him to produce offensively.

The numbers have not been great but Luciano is only 24 years old and was a top 100 prospect not too long ago. His service time is still under a year, meaning he can theoretically be retained for six full seasons by some club. It’s understandable that teams would hope to have that player on hand in case he does finally break out. Now that he’s in DFA limbo once more, he will be on the move again or outrighted in the next week.

Sandridge, 27 next month, got a major league roster spot for the first time with the Yankees last year. He made just one appearance, which came against the Mets on July 5th. He was given a rude awakening, as he walked Juan Soto and then allowed a home run to Pete Alonso. He settled down somewhat by striking out Brandon Nimmo and Mark Vientos, but then walked Luis Torrens and hit Jeff McNeil with a pitch before being removed.

That one appearance has some commonalities with his minor league track record, which has featured lots of strikeouts but a lack of control. He tossed 36 2/3 innings on the farm for the Yankees last year with a 4.66 ERA. He struck out 32.7% of batters faced but issued 19 walks, an 11.4% pace. He also hit three more batters and tossed six wild pitches. He averaged around 95 miles per hour with his four-seamer and sinker while also throwing a splitter and slider.

He will now be in DFA limbo for a week at most. The waiver process takes 48 hours, so the Yankees could take five days to field trade interest, but they could also put him on the wire sooner. Since he has a couple of options, he could have appeal if there’s a club that is both intrigued by the arsenal and looking for some extra relief depth.

Photo courtesy of Sam Navarro, Imagn Images

Yankees Re-Sign Cody Bellinger

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The Yankees and outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger have reunited on a new contract. The Boras Corporation client reportedly gets a five-year deal with a $162.5MM guarantee, with no deferrals. He gets a $20MM signing bonus followed by salaries of $32.5MM in each of the first two years, $25.8MM in each of the next two, then $25.9MM in the final season. Bellinger can opt out after the second or third season, though those opt-outs are pushed by a year if the 2027 season is canceled by a lockout. Bellinger also gets a full no-trade clause. The Yankees have not yet announced a corresponding 40-man roster move.

It always seemed like a good bet that Bellinger would return to the Yankees, since their first season together was a success. But there was a standoff recently, as the club and Bellinger’s camp had a bit of a gap. It was reported earlier this month that the Yankees had an offer out to Bellinger. No details on that offer were revealed but it was reported a few days later that they had made a second offer.

Subsequent reporting on the negotiations suggested the Yanks had put forth a five-year offer worth more than $150MM, but with Bellinger’s camp hoping to get the length pushed to seven years. That gap seemingly put things on ice for a moment, with alternative paths available to both parties. The Yankees showed interest in other players, including outfielder Luis Robert Jr., while Bellinger still had potential fits with teams like the Dodgers and Mets.

But the market has changed quite a bit in the past week. The Dodgers and Mets got into a bidding war over Kyle Tucker, with the Dodgers coming out on top. The Mets then pivoted to signing Bo Bichette to bolster their infield, followed by trading infielder Luisangel Acuña to the White Sox as part of their package to land Robert.

Those moves took away some alternate paths from the Yankees but also removed a couple of logical landing spots for Bellinger. He had also been connected to the Blue Jays, Giants and Phillies throughout the winter but none of those clubs seemed to be strongly in the mix. The Yanks seemingly didn’t budge far from where their reported offer was a few weeks ago, though they did add the opt-outs. It was reported a few days ago that they were willing to include those.

Though Bellinger and Boras didn’t quite get the seven years they were looking for, the deal comes in fairly close to expectations from the beginning of the offseason. For instance, MLBTR predicted Bellinger to land a guarantee of $140MM over five years. Bellinger has secured himself a floor just above that. There’s also a path to boosting his future earnings again with more opt-out opportunities down the line.

He is now 30, turning 31 in July, so he will be 32 years old by the end of the 2027 season. Alex Bregman and Kyle Schwarber both just got five-year deals this offseason, with Schwarber going into his age-33 season and Bregman age-32. Schwarber got a $150MM guarantee and Bregman $175MM, though Bregman’s deals had deferrals which pushed the net present value pretty close to Schwarber’s guarantee.

For Bellinger, he can bank $85MM over the next two years, when factoring in the signing bonus and the front-loaded salaries. When his first opt-out decision comes around, he would still have three years and $77.5MM left on this deal. If he continues to be a productive player between now and then, he should be in a good position to opt out. The lockout-specific provision of the opt-outs appears to be a way for the Yankees to get at least two years of Bellinger’s services.

While Bellinger has maintained some future earning potential, he has also secured himself a strong base after a few years of uncertainty. When he first hit the open market, he had shown both huge upside and a massive downside. In 2019, then with the Dodgers, Bellinger was the National League MVP. He hit 47 home runs that year. Offense was up all around the league thanks to some juiced balls but Bellinger also drew walks at a 14.4% clip and only struck out 16.4% of the time. His .305/.406/.629 line led to a 161 wRC+, even in the heightened offensive environment of that season. He stole 15 bases and got strong reviews for his defense. FanGraphs credited him with 7.8 wins above replacement.

But his production backed up a bit in 2020 and he infamously injured his shoulder in the NLCS during a post-homer celebration with teammate Enrique Hernández, as seen in this video from MLB.com.

Bellinger underwent surgery after the season and his performance was awful for two years after. He slashed .193/.256/.355 over 2021 and 2022, getting non-tendered by the Dodgers after the latter campaign. He latched on with the Cubs for 2023, signing a one-year deal worth $17.5MM. He had a strong bounceback season in Wrigley, hitting 26 home runs and slashing .307/.356/.525 for a 135 wRC+.

Going into 2024, Bellinger and his reps at the Boras Corporation were hoping to cash in. He had seemingly put the low points behind him. He was still young, going into his age-28 season, and had shown MVP upside. The previous offseason, Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts had both secured 11-year deals. This was seemingly a way to lower the competitive balance tax hit of those deals, as a player’s CBT hit is calculated based on a deal’s average annual value.

MLBTR expected this trend to continue with Bellinger, predicting him for a 12-year deal worth $264MM. That seemed to be at least somewhat aligned with what Bellinger and Boras felt he could get, as they reportedly went out looking to top $200MM.

It did not play out that way. Though Bellinger’s 2023 season was a success, there was seemingly some concern about some lackluster batted-ball data. And with the injury-marred seasons still somewhat fresh in the collective memory, his market never quite developed as hoped.

It wasn’t just Bellinger, as several other players lingered unsigned that season. They came to be known as the “Boras Four”, as they were all repped by the same agency. Bellinger, Blake Snell, Matt Chapman and Jordan Montgomery all settled for short-term deals well below expectations. Bellinger returned to the Cubs on a three-year deal with an $80MM guarantee, with chances to opt out after each season.

The first season of that pact wasn’t a roaring success, as Bellinger was good but not great. He hit 18 home runs and slashed .266/.325/.426 for a wRC+ of 108. Bellinger decided to forgo the first opt-out opportunity and stick with the Cubs. The team didn’t hold up their end of the reunion, however, as they shipped Bellinger to the Yankees. It was effectively a salary dump. The Cubs got Cody Poteet in return, whom they designated for assignment a few months later.

The Cubs ate $5MM in the swap, leaving the Yanks theoretically on the hook for $47.5MM over two years, though with Bellinger still having another opt-out remaining. As mentioned earlier, the Yankees and Bellinger turned out to be a great match. He hit 29 home runs on the year and slashed .272/.334/.480 for a 125 wRC+. Yankee Stadium and its short porch in right field seemed to be a good fit for him, as he slashed .302/.365/.544 at home on the year. He stole 13 bases overall and continued to get good grades for his glovework, earning 4.9 fWAR.

Bellinger triggered his opt-out and took another crack at free agency, which led to this pact. As mentioned, it’s possible that Bellinger will return to the open market yet again in the future. For now, though it came about in circuitous fashion, he has pushed his earning floor above the $200MM he was looking for a few years ago.

His three-year deal with the Cubs paid him $27.5MM in each of the first two years. He collected a $5MM buyout when he opted out of the final season, meaning he banked $60MM on the pact. Combined with this deal with the Yankees, he’ll earn $222.5MM even if he doesn’t trigger either of the opt-outs in this deal.

For players taking the short-term route and hoping for more earnings later, this is another example of how the path is viable. It doesn’t always work out, as Montgomery will surely tell you, but the hit rate is pretty decent. Chapman, Snell, Bellinger, Bregman, Carlos Rodón, Pete Alonso and Carlos Correa have all signed two- or three-year deals with opt-outs and then later signed a longer deal worth nine figures.

For the Yankees, this gets their outfield back to its 2025 level. Both Bellinger and Trent Grisham became free agents at the end of last season but both have now re-signed. They project to line up in two outfield spots with Aaron Judge in another and Giancarlo Stanton in the designated hitter slot. Bellinger can also play a bit of first base but the Yanks could give Ben Rice the regular job there after his breakout season. Rice can also catch, so perhaps Bellinger would slide to first base if Rice is needed behind the plate.

It’s possible the Yankees now look to move some outfield depth in the wake of this deal. Jasson Domínguez was once a top prospect but had an underwhelming season in 2025. He was roughly league average at the plate but with poor defensive metrics. The Yankees also have Spencer Jones pushing for a job after he hit 35 home runs in the minors last year but he also struck out in 35.4% of his plate appearances.

Neither Domínguez nor Jones has a great path to playing time right now. That could change as the season goes along. Stanton is 36 years old and has made at least one trip to the injured list in seven straight seasons now. Judge will turn 34 soon. Even if he himself stays healthy, the Yanks may want to put Judge in the DH slot if Stanton is hurt.

Perhaps the Yankees will keep both Domínguez and Jones around as depth for such situations, as both players are still optionable, but either or both could also be trade fodder. Club owner Hal Steinbrenner has previously expressed a desire to keep the payroll beneath $300MM. The Yanks are now a bit over that. RosterResource has them at $304MM in terms of pure payroll, with a $318MM CBT number.

That CBT number is over the top tier, which is $304MM. Since the Yankees have paid the tax in at least three consecutive years, that puts them in the highest possible tax bracket. They were at about $285MM or so before the Bellinger deal, so they paid a 95% tax on the part of the deal pushing them to the top line and then a 110% tax on the part that went beyond it. In the end, they’re adding more than $30MM in taxes to their ledger, on top of what they are paying Bellinger. They still arguably need some pitching help, so perhaps they would trade from their outfield depth instead of adding more money via free agency.

For the other clubs in the league, this further narrows down the list of available options. As of the start of the year, there were still many players available in free agency or in trade, but the dominos have been falling in quick succession lately. The Cubs got a deal done with Bregman, which prompted the Red Sox to sign Ranger Suárez and the Diamondbacks to get Nolan Arenado. The Tucker deal pushed the Mets to Bichette and Robert, which may have helped the Phillies reunite with J.T. Realmuto and pushed Bellinger to get back together with the Yankees. The Realmuto deal seemingly led to Victor Caratini signing with the Twins. All that happened in the past 11 days.

Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to spring training in less than three weeks. With Bellinger now off the board, the top unsigned free agents include Framber Valdez, Zac Gallen, Eugenio Suárez, Harrison Bader, Chris Bassitt and others. There are still a few theoretical trade candidates out there, including Brendan Donovan and MacKenzie Gore.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the Yanks and Bellinger were in agreement on a deal. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported the five-year length and guarantee. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic first reported the lack of deferrals. Passan then reported the opt-outs, signing bonus and no-trade clause. Nightengale then reported the salary for the first two seasons. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported the full salary breakdown. Nightengale added the detail of the opt-outs being pushed in the event of the 2027 season being canceled. Photos courtesy of Wendell Cruz, Vincent Carchietta, Imagn Images

AL East Injury Notes: Rodon, Henderson, Kjerstad

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Carlos Rodón seems to be progressing well from the surgery he had in October to remove loose bodies from his elbow. In an appearance on Foul Territory’s livestream of the New York Baseball Writers’ Gala, Rodón said he was back throwing eight weeks removed from the surgery. He’s been recently doing mound work as well.“It doesn’t really feel like much of a rehab,” Rodón said.

The most recent timeline from the team had Rodón returning in late April or early May. That would put him slightly ahead of Gerrit Cole and well ahead of Clarke Schmidt. Cole and Schmidt are coming back from Tommy John surgery. Rodón stressed the improved mobility he had following the surgery. “I couldn’t really bend my elbow,” he said of his pre-surgery movement.

Rodón set career highs in starts (33) and innings (195 1/3) last season. He finished top 10 in strikeouts. A forearm strain cost him a few months to begin his Yankees tenure in 2023, but he’s been largely healthy since then.

The strong 2025 campaign for Rodón fell apart in the postseason. He was rocked for nine earned runs over 8 1/3 innings between the ALDS and ALCS. Rodón posted an uninspiring 8:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his two starts.

New York will open next season with a rotation consisting of Max Fried, postseason breakout Cam Schlittler, Luis Gil, Will Warren, and trade acquisition Ryan Weathers. It’s a relatively unproven group (outside of Fried) with a lengthy injury history. Veterans Paul Blackburn and Ryan Yarbrough are on hand to eat innings. The unit will try to hold down the fort as Rodón, Cole, and Schmidt work toward their returns.

Elsewhere around the division, the Orioles received some positive news on a pair of young left-handed bats. Gunnar Henderson says he’s fully healthy after dealing with a shoulder impingement for much of last season, as relayed by Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports. Henderson revealed the injury earlier this month. He reiterated at this week’s fanfest event that the problem is behind him. “Feel great, shoulder feels great, so I feel like I’m in a great spot right now. Swing’s been feeling awesome so far.”

Henderson delivered a solid all-around season in 2025, though his power numbers fell precipitously from the heights he reached the previous year. After slugging 37 home runs in 2024, he hit just 17 this past season. Henderson’s slugging percentage dipped from .529 to .438, and his ISO went from .248 to .165. It’s hard to complain about a 120 wRC+ and a career-best 30 steals, but the final result was a bit of a letdown after Henderson finished fourth in AL MVP voting the prior year. He should be a threat for 35+ homers once again with the shoulder injury cleared up.

Heston Kjerstad is also expected to be good to go heading into 2026. Manager Craig Albernaz told reporters, including Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun, that Kjerstad will be a “full participant” in Spring Training. There hasn’t been a clear explanation for the outfielder’s absence to end last season, but it appears to be in the rearview. Kjerstad was shut down in late July while dealing with fatigue. Reports in September were that he was seeing doctors about an unspecified medical condition.

“He’s itching to get back to where he can get back to,” Albernaz told reporters, including Kubatko. “Heston’s pedigree, he had to prove how good he was in the minor leagues, and going to the Fall League (in 2022) and winning MVP, like, that’s not an easy league to do that in.”

Kjerstad was the second overall pick in 2020. He’s struggled to gain a foothold in the majors, slashing .218/.284/.365 in sporadic playing time over the past three seasons. Baltimore trading for Taylor Ward, signing Pete Alonso, and retaining Ryan Mountcastle make it tough to see Kjerstad cracking the roster to open 2026.

Photo courtesy of Brad Penner, Imagn Images

Yankees Sign Dylan Coleman To Minors Contract

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The Yankees signed right-hander Dylan Coleman to a minor league deal last week, according to Coleman’s MLB.com profile page.  It wasn’t specified if the contract included an invitation to New York’s Major League spring camp.

Sixty-eight of Coleman’s 93 2/3 career innings in the majors came as a member of the Royals bullpen in 2022, when the righty posted a 2.78 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, and 12.8% walk rate.  These promising numbers drastically went south in 2023, as Coleman has an 8.84 ERA and a walk rate that ballooned to 19.8%, almost eclipsing his 21.9K%.

Kansas City traded Coleman to the Astros during the 2023-24 offseason, and he tossed just a single MLB inning for Houston in 2024 before being released in August.  That remains Coleman’s most recent trip to the Show, as a minor league deal with the Orioles last offseason only led to more struggles.  Coleman posted a 4.91 ERA over 14 2/3 innings in Baltimore’s farm system with as many walks (14) as strikeouts, and the Orioles released him in May.

Since that time, Coleman has been overhauling his mechanics with the Feole Pitching training workshop, and as per a recent post from Feole’s Instagram account, Coleman has added a cutter and power sinker to his repertoire, and his fastball velocity is up to 100mph.  Coleman averaged over 98mph on his fastball when he debuted with the Royals in 2021, but that velo dropped to 95.2mph by the 2023 season.

Any team would be intrigued by triple digits on the radar gun, and there’s no risk for the Yankees in taking a first-hand look at the revamped Coleman, and also seeing what their own pitching development crew can add to his approach.  All of the stuff in the world won’t help a pitcher who can’t get the ball over the plate, of course, and it remains to be seen if Coleman’s fixes extend to his extreme control problems of the last few years.

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