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2025 Rule 5 Draft Results

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The 2025 Rule 5 draft is taking place this afternoon at the Winter Meetings in Orlando. This post will be updated with the results as they come in.

As a refresher, the Rule 5 draft is a way for players potentially talented enough for the big leagues but blocked by their current clubs to find opportunities elsewhere. Any players that were 18 and under at the time of their original signing and went professional in 2021, and any players who turned pro at 19 years of age or older in 2022, are eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft if they are not on a 40-man roster.

Though the amateur (Rule 4) draft now has a lottery to determine the selection order, the Rule 5 draft still goes the old-fashioned way of reverse order of standings from the season that just ended. Clubs need to have an open 40-man roster spot in order to make a pick but aren’t obligated to make a selection on their turn. If they do make a pick, they will have to pay $100K to the team they select from. The selected players must stay on the active roster (or injured list) for the entire 2026 season or else be placed on waivers. If they clear waivers, they must be offered back to their original team. They cannot be optioned to the minors.

Players like Anthony Santander and Ryan Pressly have been notable picks in other recent years while guys like George Bell and Roberto Clemente are found deeper in the history books. Last year, 15 players were selected. Only four of those remain with the club who selected them and only three of those have had their rights fully transferred to their new club. The White Sox took Shane Smith from the Brewers. The Marlins took Liam Hicks from the Tigers. Mike Vasil was taken by the Phillies from the Mets but was later traded to the Rays and then went to the White Sox via waivers.

The one other pick from last year’s draft which is still live is Angel Bastardo, who the Blue Jays took from the Red Sox. He was recovering from Tommy John surgery and spent the entire 2025 season on the injured list. He is still on Toronto’s 40-man but they don’t yet have his full rights, as a player needs at least 90 active days to remove the Rule 5 restrictions. If the Jays are willing to roster him for about three months during the 2026 season, they could then gain his full rights and option him to the minors. All other picks were eventually returned to their original organization and/or became free agents.

This year’s picks will be featured below as they come in…

  1. Rockies: RHP RJ Petit (from the Tigers) (Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs was on this before the official announcement)
  2. White Sox: RHP Jedixson Paez (Red Sox)
  3. Nationals: RHP Griff McGarry (Phillies)
  4. Twins: C Daniel Susac (Athletics) (Susac was then traded to the Giants, per Longenhagen. The Twins will get minor league catcher Miguel Caraballo in return, per Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star Tribune)
  5. Pirates: RHP Carter Baumler (Orioles) (The Pirates then traded Baumler to the Rangers for RHP Jaiker Garcia. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News previously suggested Texas would likely get Baumler)
  6. Angels: pass
  7. Orioles: pass
  8. Athletics: RHP Ryan Watson (Giants) (Will be traded to Red Sox, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive. The A’s will get Justin Riemer in return, per Cotillo.)
  9. Braves: pass
  10. Rays: pass
  11. Cardinals: RHP Matt Pushard (Marlins)
  12. Marlins: pass
  13. Diamondbacks: pass
  14. Rangers: pass
  15. Giants: pass
  16. Royals: pass
  17. Reds: pass
  18. Mets: pass
  19. Tigers: pass
  20. Astros: RHP Roddery Muñoz (Reds)
  21. Guardians: RHP Peyton Pallette (White Sox)
  22. Red Sox: pass
  23. Mariners: pass
  24. Padres: pass
  25. Cubs: pass
  26. Dodgers: pass
  27. Blue Jays: RHP Spencer Miles (Giants)
  28. Yankees: RHP Cade Winquest (Cardinals)
  29. Phillies: RHP Zach McCambley (Marlins)
  30. Brewers: pass

Second round (all others passed)

Photo courtesy of Mike Watters, Imagn Images

Mets, Padres, Phillies, Yankees Among Teams Interested In Brenton Doyle

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Rockies center fielder Brenton Doyle is garnering “widespread trade interest,” according to Ari Alexander of 7News Boston.  The Padres, Phillies, Yankees, and Mets are just some of the “many” teams who have checked in with the Rox about the two-time Gold Glover.

Doyle won the NL center field Gold Glove in both the 2023 and 2024 seasons, and he won a Fielding Bible Award as well in 2024.  However, his stellar defense took a step backwards in 2025, as per such public defensive metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average.  After recording 14 OAA each in both 2023 and 2024, Doyle had “only” six OAA in 2025, though naturally this is still very strong.  The DRS dropoff was more severe, as Doyle went from +29 DRS over the 2023-24 seasons to an even 0 total last year.

The focus on Doyle’s defense is necessary since he has yet to show that he contribute as a big league hitter.  He had only a 44 wRC+ over 431 plate appearances in his 2023 rookie season, but boosted that wRC+ up to 97 in 2024 by hitting .260/.317/.446 with 23 home runs and 30 stolen bases over 603 plate appearances.  This improved offense and Doyle’s superb defense combined for a 3.6 fWAR season, making him an immensely valuable player if he could generate anything close to league-average production at the plate.

Unfortunately, Doyle badly regressed to a 65 wRC+ in 2025, hitting only .233/.274/.376 over 538 PA.  Between this lack of offense and his diminished defense, Doyle barely topped replacement-level production in posting 0.4 fWAR.  It is very possible and understandable that Doyle’s mind was on matters far more important than baseball last year, as the outfielder and wife lost their unborn child in April, 12 weeks into the pregnancy.

Doyle’s 2025 numbers apparently haven’t had much impact on his trade value, which isn’t that surprising for a few reasons.  The 27-year-old is a Super Two player who is controlled through the 2029 season, and Doyle is projected for a $3.2MM salary in his first trip through the arbitration process this winter.  At worst, Doyle is still an excellent defender and a strong baserunner, with 70 steals in 82 attempts during his big league career.  Though Doyle strikes out a lot and doesn’t walk much, he makes a lot of solid contact and has some pop in his bat, and could break out in a more normalized offensive environment than Coors Field.

This potential for offensive improvement could appeal to the Mets, who already have a glove-first player in Tyrone Taylor as their top option in center field.  The Phillies plan to give top prospect Justin Crawford a look in their big league outfield this year, though since it isn’t known if Crawford will be a center fielder over the long term, installing Doyle would allow Crawford to take on a less pressurized role in the corner outfield.

The Yankees and Padres have more crowded outfield pictures.  With Trent Grisham accepting the qualifying offer, New York’s starting outfield is ostensibly set between Grisham, Aaron Judge, and Jasson Dominguez, plus the club is still interested in re-signing Cody Bellinger.  Doyle might be viewed as a fallback plan if Bellinger signs elsewhere, and Doyle’s presence would both provide some guard if Dominguez still isn’t fully ready for the Show, or if Grisham’s sharp defensive decline from 2025 carries over into next year.  Doyle is a right-handed hitter, so he could split time with the lefty-swinging Grisham in center field.

San Diego has Jackson Merrill in center field, flanked in the corners by Fernando Tatis Jr. and (after his club option was exercised) Ramon Laureano.  Merrill is coming off an injury-marred 2025 season but he was still productive at the plate, and though defensive metrics are split on his work in center field, he has done an overall solid job considering that he learned center field on the fly prior to making his MLB debut in 2024.  Tatis and Merrill are locked up over the long term, so Doyle could be a fourth outfielder in 2026, and the Padres could re-evaluate the situation once Laureano’s contract is up next winter.  The fact that the Padres and Rockies are division rivals might complicate any trade, however.

In regards to the Rox, it remains to be seen if the team will even trade Doyle at all, since they’d be selling low on a player who might well be in line for a rebound year.  Trade interest in Doyle has stretched back to at least last summer’s trade deadline, and there is a sense that Colorado might move an outfielder since the outfield is one of the few relative positions of depth on the roster.  New president of baseball operations Paul DePodesta is open to basically anything as he tries to turn around a 119-loss team, so if another team makes a big enough offer for Doyle, DePodesta could very well consider swinging a trade now in order bring some much-needed young talent into the organization.

Mets, Yankees Among Teams Inquiring On Brewers’ Trevor Megill

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Though much of the trade chatter surrounding the Brewers will focus on ace Freddy Peralta, who’s a free agent following the season, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that closer Trevor Megill is drawing interest from an even wider number of clubs. That includes the Yankees and Mets, per the report.

Megill, 32, popped up as a speculative trade candidate last month after Brandon Woodruff accepted his one-year, $22.025MM qualifying offer. That decision pushed the Brewers’ payroll up to its currently projected $135.5MM, per RosterResource, which would stand as the highest Opening Day total in franchise history.

There’s no indication that Milwaukee needs to shed salary now — they wouldn’t have made the QO to Woodruff had they been wholly unwilling to risk him accepting — but the budget has obviously tightened since he decided to forgo the open market. In the aftermath of that trade, both president of baseball operations Matt Arnold and owner Mark Attanasio publicly indicated that Woodruff accepting his QO and any decision on whether to trade Peralta (or other veterans on notable salaries) were separate issues. The fact that Milwaukee tendered contracts to its entire arbitration class, including a borderline non-tender candidate in Jake Bauers, supports that thinking.

Still, the Brewers are perennially open-minded when it comes to trading established veterans as they inch closer to free agency. They traded Josh Hader when he had one and a half seasons of club control left. Corbin Burnes and Devin Williams were traded in the offseason prior to their final years of club control. Stretching further back, the Brewers traded Jonathan Lucroy when he was a year and a half from free agency, too. Listening on someone like Megill, who’ll be a free agent after the 2027 season and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.2MM in 2026, is par for the course.

It’s also plenty understandable that the flamethrowing Megill would be drawing widespread interest. Not only is he controllable for two more seasons and projected for a relatively bargain salary — he’s also quietly established himself as one of the more overpowering relievers in the game.

The Brewers acquired Megill in a heist of a deal with the Twins early in the 2023 season, sending a player to be named later to Minnesota, who’d designated Megill for assignment after one season. The Twins had claimed him off waivers following a DFA by the Cubs the offseason prior. Chicago had previously selected him from the Padres in the Rule 5 Draft. Suffice it to say, Megill’s path to being a high-end reliever was anything but direct.

That’s precisely where he finds himself now, though. Since landing in Milwaukee, Megill has bumped what was already plus-plus velocity, climbing from an average of 98.1 mph on his four-seamer to 99.2 mph this past season. He’s dropped his earned run average in four consecutive seasons, culminating in last year’s sterling 2.49 mark.

In 128 innings with the Brewers, Megill touts a 2.88 ERA (2.99 SIERA, 2.62 FIP). He’s fanned an outstanding 31% of his opponents and done so while showing average command, evidenced by an 8.2% walk rate. He’s prone to hard contact in the air when opponents do connect — 91 mph average exit velocity (93.6 mph in the air), 40.2% hard-hit rate, 44.4% fly-ball rate — but Megill also boasts a big 14% swinging-strike rate and an opponents’ contact rate of just 71.5% in three years as a Brewer. (League average is just under 77%.) He’s also saved 50 games, including 30 in 2025.

Megill missed time late in 2025 with a flexor strain, which could complicate trade talks, but he returned prior to the end of the season and then fired four sharp innings in the playoffs (one run on three hits and a walk with five strikeouts). He’s allowed one run in 7 1/3 playoff innings over three seasons in Milwaukee, totaling a 12-to-1 K/BB ratio along the way.

Two years of Megill at what would amount to something in the $10-11MM range (depending on the scope of next winter’s arbitration raise) would be a raucous bargain. In free agency, he’d command more than that total per year — likely over three or four years. It’s the sort of surplus value and the general price range that should command interest from all walks of postseason hopefuls.

The Mets are an obvious fit, given president of baseball operations David Stearns’ ties to the Brewers organization. Stearns had already stepped aside as president of baseball operations at the time Megill was acquired, but he was still serving as an advisor to the aforementioned Arnold, who’d been his top lieutenant prior to that advisor shift. The Mets have already signed Williams — another former Brewer — on a three-year, $51MM contract. The bullpen remains a work in progress, however. Each of Tyler Rogers, Ryne Stanek, Gregory Soto and Ryan Helsley became a free agent at season’s end. Lefty A.J. Minter is on the mend from lat surgery. Reed Garrett and Tylor Megill — Trevor’s younger brother — will miss all of 2026 after undergoing UCL surgery (the former in October, the latter in September).

It’s a similar story across town in the Bronx. The Yankees lost Clay Holmes to free agency last offseason and saw Williams and Luke Weaver hit the open market this winter. Mark Leiter Jr. and Ian Hamilton were non-tendered. The top end of Aaron Boone’s bullpen is a bit more established than that of counterpart Carlos Mendoza over in Queens, but the Yankees are surely in the market for multiple bullpen arms to complement David Bednar, Fernando Cruz, Camilo Doval and Tim Hill.

For clubs like the Mets, Yankees and other luxury-tax payors, Megill ought to hold extra interest. Both New York clubs are perennial residents in the top bracket of luxury penalization. They’re paying anywhere from 95% to 110% taxes on incoming additions. Getting Megill would “only” cost them a total of $8-9MM — plus whatever prospects are deemed necessary for the Brewers to part with him.

To emphasize once more, there’s no clear indication Megill (or Peralta) will actually change hands. The Brewers will understandably set a high asking price for either. They just tallied the best record in the National League and lost very few players in free agency. They’ll also get a full year out of the new-and-improved Andrew Vaughn (.308/.375/.493 in 64 games with Milwaukee) and can count on more innings from Woodruff (64 2/3 innings in 2025). Milwaukee has to be considered the division front-runner and a threat to make a deep playoff run. If they part with Megill and/or Peralta, it’ll very likely be for younger, affordable big leaguers who can be controlled for a much longer term — or at the very least for high-end prospects who could be subsequently spun into more controllable big league help.

Yankees Interested In Brad Keller, MacKenzie Gore

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The Yankees are interested in free agent right-hander Brad Keller, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post. They also have interest in left-hander MacKenzie Gore of the Nationals, reports Andrew Golden of The Washington Post.

On paper, the Yankee rotation is much stronger at the end of 2026 compared to the start. Each of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón and Clarke Schmidt are all recovering from surgeries and are expected to start next year on the injured list. Cole and Schmidt both underwent Tommy John surgery this year, Cole in March and Schmidt in July. Rodón had surgery in October to remove loose bodies from his elbow.

Bryan Hoch of MLB.com provided updates today. Rodón is expected to be back with the club in late April or early May. Cole is expected slightly after that, with a May/June target. Hoch didn’t mention Schmidt, but given his later surgery date, he shouldn’t be expected back until the latter parts of the upcoming season.

By the end of the season, it’s possible the rotation group includes Cole, Rodón, Schmidt, Max Fried, Cam Schlittler, Luis Gil and Will Warren. But to start the season, the group would have Fried, Schlittler, Gil and Warren, with guys like Allan Winans and Ryan Yarbrough in the mix for the back end. Elmer Rodriguez could be a factor but he hasn’t yet made his major league debut.

Keller has experience as a starter and a reliever. He is coming off a tremendous season working out of the Cubs’ bullpen but has been getting interest from clubs as a potential starter next year. Sherman says the Yanks are more interested in him as a reliever but they could use him out of the rotation earlier in the year as they wait for other arms to get healthy. Once guys like Cole and Rodón return to health, unless the situation has drastically changed, Keller could be pushed into a relief role.

From 2018 to 2020, Keller had pretty decent results as a starter with the Royals. He wasn’t overwhelming but he rode a grounder-heavy approach to some success. He had a 3.50 earned run average over those seasons. His 16.8% strikeout rate was well below par but his 52.1% ground ball rate was quite strong. His results backed up from there, as he posted a 5.14 ERA from 2021 to 2023. He had thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in October of 2023. He was back on the mound in 2024 with unimpressive results.

As mentioned, he just wrapped up a tremendous season as a reliever with the Cubs. He tossed 69 2/3 innings with a 2.07 ERA. As before, he got opponents to keep the ball on the ground at a 56.1% clip, but his 27.2% strikeout rate was a massive increase relative to his time with the Royals.

MLBTR predicted Keller could secure three years and $36MM on the open market, noting that it would be possible some clubs looked to move him back to a rotation role. The Tigers had been reportedly interested in that kind of move but that was before they added Drew Anderson, a signing which became official today. It’s possible the Anderson signing make the Tigers less likely to pursue Keller.

While Keller would be an interesting addition in his flexibility, Gore would be a much more straightforward rotation upgrade. He has been exclusively a starter over the past three years. He showed some flashes of huge upside in 2025 but finished with a middling season overall. Through the All-Star Break, he had a 3.02 ERA, 30.5% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. At that time, only four starters were ahead of him in the strikeout rate column, an excellent group consisting of Tarik Skubal, Zack Wheeler, Garrett Crochet and Hunter Brown.

He couldn’t keep it going in the second half. He went on the injured list twice, once due shoulder inflammation and the second time due to an ankle impingement. He posted a 6.75 ERA in his second-half starts around those IL stints, which led to him finishing the year with a 4.17 ERA overall.

Since Gore doesn’t have Keller’s track record of relief work, it’s possible that acquiring him would eventually lead to a rotation logjam later in the year. Perhaps the Yankees aren’t worried about that, as pitching injuries will naturally thin out the group from its ideal arrangement at some point. If a surplus does come to pass, that would be the proverbial good problem to have.

Adding Gore would be cheaper than Keller in terms of dollars. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $4.7MM salary next year. He would be owed another raise in 2027 before he’s slated to become a free agent. That’s undoubtedly appealing for the Yankees, especially considering the competitive balance tax and the compounding costs involved there. However, the Yanks would also have to send a package of prospects to the Nationals. The Nats have received interest in Gore from half the league, so the bidding should be fierce.

General manager Brian Cashman said this week, per Greg Joyce of The New York Post, that he doesn’t have a set payroll for 2026. “Hal’s exact words to me continue to be, ‘Take everything that’s out there to me,’ which I will continue to do,” Cashman said, referring to owner Hal Steinbrenner.

RosterResource currently projects them for a pure payroll of $260MM, which is $36MM shy of where they finished the 2025 season. In terms of the CBT, the Yanks are just above $283MM, meaning they are less than $1MM from the third tier of the tax. If they go over the third tier, they will be subject to a higher rate of taxation and their top pick in the 2027 draft will drop by ten spots.

Photo courtesy of Matt Marton, Imagn Images

Yankees Notes: Bellinger, Williams, Lineup

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Yankees general manager Brian Cashman spoke to reporters on Sunday, offering updates on a few key free agents and discussing plans for the 2026 lineup. Free agent outfielder Cody Bellinger continues to be a popular topic of conversation, and Cashman reiterated that the team wants him back next season.

“Cody Bellinger would be a great fit for us,” Cashman said (h/t Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). “I think he’d be a great fit for anybody. I think he’s a very talented player that can play multiple positions at a high level, and hits lefties, hits righties. He’s a contact guy, and I think our environment was a great one for him.”

Bellinger has been linked to the Yankees all offseason. A report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggested the club views fellow free agent Kyle Tucker as a backup plan if they can’t retain Bellinger. For what it’s worth, Cashman said Tucker hasn’t visited the Yankees’ complex in Tampa (relayed by Hoch). The former Cub recently stopped by the Blue Jays’ facility in Dunedin.

The 30-year-old Bellinger opted out of his contract in early November, hitting the open market after a strong first season in the Bronx. He slashed .272/.334/.480 with 29 home runs and 13 stolen bases this past year. Bellinger had one year and $25MM remaining on his deal. Given the widespread interest in his services, he should land a much more lucrative pact.

Bringing back Bellinger might exacerbate a lineup configuration issue addressed by Cashman. The roster skews left-handed at the moment. “That is a problem,” Cashman said (h/t Greg Joyce of the New York Post). Cashman added that the team wouldn’t make a trade just to get a right-handed hitter if they aren’t better than the lefty currently in place.

Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton are the only righties slated for regular at-bats next season. The club’s shortstop will likely also be a righty, with Jose Caballero handling the position until Anthony Volpe is available. After that, it’s a bunch of lefties, with a couple switch-hitters mixed in. The righty/lefty mix might be more of a pressing issue if New York struggled against lefties last season, but that wasn’t the case. The Yankees led the league in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching in 2025. They tied the Dodgers for the most home runs off southpaws.

If Cashman is set on rebalancing the lineup, a certain right-handed infield prospect comes to mind. George Lombard Jr., the team’s top prospect, seems to be on the verge of making an impact at the MLB level. Cashman threw cold water on the possibility of Lombard being involved right away, though. “He could play defense in the big leagues right now, but he’s still developing on the hitting side. Exciting, high ceiling talent. But I don’t think he’s ready yet.” (h/t to Hoch)

The stance is in line with Cashman’s previous comments on Lombard’s trajectory. The 2023 first-rounder hit just .215 at Double-A last year, though he was only in his age-20 season. Lombard torched High-A pitching earlier in the year, earning the bump to Somerset. His strikeout rate jumped considerably with the Patriots, exceeding 25% for the first time as a professional. Lombard did manage 24 steals, while chipping in eight home runs. He’s a good bet to repeat Double-A to open next season. A strong performance could force the Yankees’ hand, especially if the Caballero/Volpe combo falters.

While Bellinger might rejoin the team, another reunion fell flat, apparently without an attempt. Cashman said the Yankees never made an offer to free agent reliever Devin Williams (h/t to Chris Kirschner of The Athletic). Williams and his former team were said to have mutual interest in a return, but he ultimately went to the cross-town rival Mets on a three-year, $51MM deal.

Williams came to the Yankees in a December 2024 trade with the Brewers. He lost the closer role a month into the season and needed an injury to Luke Weaver to get back in the mix for saves. He pitched well for a couple of months, but the Yankees went out and acquired David Bednar at the trade deadline. Bednar took over as closer upon arrival, moving Williams to a setup role. The presence of Bednar and fellow trade deadline acquisition Camilo Doval could’ve hindered the Yankees in attracting Williams, who said it “depends on the scenario” regarding whether being the closer would impact his free agency decision. The Mets had an obvious opening with Edwin Diaz opting out and hitting free agency.

Photo courtesy of Vincent Carchietta, Imagn Images

Cubs, Phillies, Yankees Among Teams Interested In Tatsuya Imai

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The Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball posted ace Tatsuya Imai for major league teams back on Nov. 19. The flamethrowing 27-year-old has until Jan. 2 to negotiate a deal with interested MLB clubs. The Mets, Cubs and Orioles have each been linked to the right-hander so far. The Cubs, in particular, are expected to be a “strong” player in Imai’s market, per Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. They also made an offer to Dylan Cease before the former Cy Young runner-up (and former Cubs draftee) signed with the Blue Jays last week, according to Levine.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds the Phillies and Yankees as another pair of teams in the running for Imai. He adds that Imai’s camp could schedule in-person visits with interested teams following next week’s Winter Meetings — if he hasn’t already agreed to a deal by that point.

The Cubs make a sensible fit for Imai, even after countryman Shota Imanaga accepted Chicago’s $22.025MM qualifying offer, opting to forgo free agency in the process. Manager Craig Counsell’s rotation currently includes Imanaga, Cade Horton, Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon and Colin Rea. Ace Justin Steele is still on the mend from UCL surgery performed last April. He won’t be ready for Opening Day. Javier Assad and Ben Brown could both factor in, too, but both have bullpen experience and minor league options remaining.

Chicago’s interest in bolstering the rotation is well-known. Even after Imanaga opted to return, the Cubs have reportedly been seeking a playoff-caliber starter to add to the top portion of their staff. Imai isn’t necessarily a slam-dunk to fit that description, but his electric stuff and recent performance in NPB suggest he has that ceiling.

Imai, who’ll turn 28 next May, has posted a sub-3.00 ERA in each of the past four NPB seasons — headlined by a career-low 1.92 mark in 163 innings in 2025. Along the way, he’s steadily increased his strikeout rate while at the same time lowering his walk rate. Those improvements culminated in last year’s dominant season, wherein Imai punched out 27.8% of the batters he faced and cut his walk rate to a tidy 7%. He’s one of NPB’s hardest throwers, topping out around 99 mph and sitting more comfortably in the mid-90s. Imai complements that pitch with a slider, splitter and changeup.

Signing Imai would push Rea back into his familiar swingman role and could even create a logjam if everyone is healthy once Steele finishes off his rehab from surgery. That’s wishful thinking, however, given the proliferation of pitching injuries throughout the sport. And if the Cubs do manage to have a full contingent of healthy rotation arms at that point, it’d fall under the “good problem to have” cliche. A playoff rotation including a healthy Steele, Horton and Imai could be formidable.

The Phillies, meanwhile, haven’t been big players in free agency for pitchers — at least not to the extent they have with hitters — outside of retaining homegrown Aaron Nola on a seven-year contract. However, that decision is now one of many contributing to a far shakier outlook than we’re used to seeing with the Philadelphia rotation.

Left-hander Cristopher Sanchez broke out as a top-tier arm with this year’s runner-up finish in Cy Young voting, but the rest of the staff has more questions and/or dwindling club control. Ranger Suarez is already a free agent. Zack Wheeler underwent thoracic outlet surgery late in the season. He’s owed $84MM over the next two seasons. Nola struggled to the worst extent of his career, posting an ERA north of 6.00 in 2025. Jesus Luzardo is a quality mid-rotation arm but will be a free agent next winter. Taijuan Walker is also entering the final season of a four-year deal. He rebounded to an extent in 2025, but the first two seasons of that $72MM pact were a disaster. Andrew Painter has long been one of the game’s top pitching prospects, but he was hit hard in Triple-A during his return from 2024 Tommy John surgery.

Obviously, the Phillies already have a lot of money on the long-term books — but perhaps not to the extent some might think. Nola, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper are the only players signed beyond the 2027 season. A backloaded deal for Imai — likely one including at least one opt-out opportunity — could make his salary more manageable in years one and two. Those seasons would dovetail with the remaining years on the contracts of Wheeler (through 2027) as well as Walker (through 2026), Nick Castellanos (through ’26), Jose Alvarado (through ’26) and Matt Strahm (through ’26).

Signing Imai would give the Phillies another large contract on the books but also offers protection against a potentially thinned-out starting group come 2027. Luzardo and Walker are free agents at that point. Painter hasn’t pitched in the majors yet. It’s hard to know what to expect from Wheeler and Nola in 2026 — let alone 2027. Imai (or another multi-year rotation acquisition) could provide some protection, although he’s obviously an untested commodity himself (at least against MLB opposition).

On paper, the Yankees’ rotation need is the least acute of this group. Gerrit Cole could be back relatively early in 2026. Max Fried was dominant in his first season in Yankee Pinstripes. Carlos Rodon was outstanding in 33 starts. Luis Gil, Cam Schlittler and Will Warren are all impressive-looking young starters. Clarke Schmidt could be back late in the season after July Tommy John surgery.

The Yankees already have three pitchers on contracts valued at $162MM or more. Imai would very likely require a fourth commitment of over $100MM and do so at a time when the team is facing questions in the infield and in the outfield. If the Yankees believe Imai can pitch at or near the top of a major league rotation, however, they could sign him and use some of their young pitching and/or prospect depth to make compelling offers for bats on the trade market. It’s a thin offseason with regard to free-agent hitters, after all.

Whoever signs Imai will need to do so within the next four weeks. His posting window closes Jan. 2. The team to sign him will also owe a separate release fee to the Lions in NPB. That fee will equal 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any guaranteed money thereafter. Additional earnings unlocked via incentives, escalators and club option years would also be subject to that 15% rate once they become guaranteed.

Sorting Out The Yankees’ Outfield

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The Yankees came up short against the Blue Jays in the ALDS, but the front office has already gotten to work retooling the team, specifically in the outfield. New York extended the qualifying offer to Trent Grisham, which he accepted. Cody Bellinger opted out of his contract, but the team is interested in bringing him back. The team has been linked to top free agent Kyle Tucker. With at most one spot available alongside Aaron Judge and Grisham, where does that leave Jasson Dominguez and Spencer Jones?

Dominguez delivered league-average results at the plate in his first full season of MLB action. He was widely regarded as New York’s top prospect before last season. Given his pedigree, Dominguez is likely overqualified as a fourth outfielder. Jones is probably due for a call-up after launching 35 home runs across Double-A and Triple-A last season, but adding him to the roster without a clear role could stunt his development.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com had the Yankees dealing Jones when he outlined one trade candidate for each team. Feinsand’s colleague Bryan Hoch mentioned Dominguez and Jones popping up in trade talks if the team secures one of Bellinger or Tucker. Let’s dig into those possibilities.

Trade Dominguez, Keep Jones

Dominguez debuted in 2023 and immediately made an impact, hitting four home runs in eight games. His season was cut short by a UCL injury that eventually required Tommy John surgery. Recovery from the procedure limited Dominguez to 76 games between the minors and majors in 2024. He was a regular for the Yankees this past season, patrolling left field for the majority of the year, while also spending time at DH. The results at the plate were … fine. Dominguez put up a 103 wRC+ as a 22-year-old, finishing with 10 home runs and 23 stolen bases.

The main concern with Dominguez was in the field. He recorded a miserable -10 Outs Above Average and -7 Defensive Runs Saved. Dominguez finished with a -9 Fielding Run Value, which ranked as the 16th-worst mark among all qualified fielders. New York was able to hide Dominguez at DH at times last season, but a healthy Giancarlo Stanton will make that difficult.

Even with the defensive shortcomings, Dominguez has shown enough at the plate to command a considerable return in a trade. He’d be the swing-for-the-fences move and could potentially bring back assets that could contribute on the big-league roster right away.

Trade Jones, Keep Dominguez

Jones has the type of profile that makes him both an enticing trade chip and a sell-high candidate. He was a first-rounder in 2022 and has piled up offensive production in every professional season. Jones reached Double-A by the end of 2023 and dominated the level when he repeated it in 2024. The big lefty mashed 17 home runs and stole 25 in 122 games with Somerset. Jones again found himself with the Patriots to begin this past season. He posted a silly 185 wRC+ to finally move to Triple-A, where he hit 19 home runs in 67 games.

While the minor league production is great, spending so much time at Double-A is a red flag, and it seems to be related to Jones’ contact challenges. He’s had at least a 28.2% strikeout rate at every stop since 2023. Jones struck out more than a third of the time in 2024. Even as he piled up home runs with Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Jones carried a bloated 36.6% strikeout rate.

Trading Jones would allow the Yankees to cash in on his massive power season and avoid rolling the dice that he’ll make enough contact to succeed as a big leaguer. Of course, inquiring teams would be aware of Jones’ main flaw, but perhaps his pedigree and recent performance would be enough to overlook the swing-and-miss in his game. The return in a trade would be appealing, though it might require taking on assets with their own question marks.

Keep Dominguez and Jones

It’s hard to envision this scenario if New York ends up landing Bellinger or Tucker, but those players will have plenty of suitors. The Yankees could focus on bullpen upgrades in the free agent market instead of making additions on the offensive side. Jones has only played outfield and DH in his minor league career, so there aren’t many ways to fit both players in the lineup. Having Jones repeat Triple-A as a 25-year-old could be considered an admission of his lack of MLB viability, so it probably makes sense to let him fail at the big-league level.

Platooning the switch-hitting Dominguez and the lefty-swinging Jones jumps out as a potential option, but the issue is the former’s struggles from the right side. Dominguez hit just .204 against lefties last season. He was much more productive as a left-handed hitter. Stanton has battled injuries for much of his career, so he probably isn’t equipped to handle everyday DH at-bats at this stage. The Yankees can find enough reps in left field and DH for both Dominguez and Jones, though neither would be a full-time player.

Even if New York keeps both players this offseason, they could still make a move during the year. Finding a trade partner once teams are dealing with injuries and underperformance should be an easier task.

Photo courtesy of Gregory Fisher, Imagn Images

AL East Notes: Bellinger, Tucker, Maton, Campbell

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As usual, the Yankees have been linked to many of the top names on the free agent market, with Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger noted as two of the more prominent players on New York’s radar.  How exactly the front office is ordering their internal wish list remains to be seen, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that Tucker “appears to be a backup plan” to Bellinger.  Familiarity and defensive flexibility are the key elements, as Heyman notes that the Yankees already know Bellinger can handle playing in the pressurized environment of the Bronx.  Tucker is primarily a right fielder who would have to move over to left field in New York due to Aaron Judge’s presence, while Bellinger brings more defensive utility as a player capable of playing all three outfield positions and first base.

It can also be assumed that the Yankees would prefer paying Bellinger’s lower price tag  — MLBTR projects Tucker to land an 11-year, $400MM deal, whereas Bellinger is projected for a relatively more modest $140MM over five years.  Signing Tucker would also cost the Yankees draft picks and international bonus money, whereas those qualifying offer-related penalties don’t apply if Bellinger is re-signed.

Here’s some more from around the AL East…

  • The Blue Jays had interest in Phil Maton before the veteran reliever signed with the Cubs, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports.  This tracks with the Jays’ previous interest in the righty, as Toronto was previously linked to Maton when he was a free agent last winter and at the trade deadline before Maton was dealt from the Cardinals to the Rangers.  Toronto is known to be looking for a reliever to supplement or even replace Jeff Hoffman in the closer’s role, but Maton also would’ve been a good addition as a bullpen workhorse who has shown an ability to handle higher-leverage work in the past.
  • Kristian Campbell will be playing winter ball, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reports, as the Red Sox continue to look to get Campbell on track after a shaky debut season in the majors.  A meteoric rise in his first two pro seasons earned Campbell a spot on Boston’s Opening Day and an eight-year, $60MM extension shortly thereafter, but he hit only .223/.319/.345 over 263 plate appearances as pitchers adjusted quickly to Campbell after his hot start.  Demoted to Triple-A Worcester in June, Campbell hit decently well at Triple-A but with little power, and he also was toggled around the diamond seeing time at first base, second base, and all three outfield positions.  Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow told Speier and other reporters earlier in November that Campbell was focused on regaining some weight and becoming stronger to better handle the grind of a full season.  The pricey contract along will keep Campbell involved in Boston’s plans, though it remains to be seen how he’ll fit into a 2026 team that has a crowded outfield, and has been linked to multiple major free agent infielders.

Yankees Re-Sign Michael Arias To Minor League Deal

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The Yankees are bringing back right-hander Michael Arias on a minor league deal, according to his MLB.com transactions log. New York acquired the reliever in a trade with the Cubs last offseason after Chicago designated him for assignment.

Arias put together a strong season across several minor league levels in the Yankees’ system, posting a 2.73 ERA with a 27.1% strikeout rate. While he began the year in the Florida Complex League, the righty didn’t pile up stats against overmatched competition. Arias did his best work at Double-A, pushing his strikeout rate over 30% and limiting hitters to a .205 batting average.

Control is always going to be the question with Arias. He compiled his “best” walk rate this past season, but it was still an unsatisfying 12.8% mark. Arias has racked up 152 walks over 211 2/3 professional innings. The struggles with walks make sense, given Arias was drafted as a shortstop and converted to pitching in 2021.

Toronto signed Arias as an international free agent in 2018. He was released before appearing with the team and latched on with the Cubs in 2021. Arias worked primarily as a starter through 2023, reaching High-A. He began the 2024 campaign as a reliever in Double-A. He recorded 24 innings with a solid 3.75 ERA at that level, then moved up to Triple-A. Arias scuffled to a 5.45 ERA over 33 appearances with Iowa. He walked 36 opposing hitters in 36 1/3 innings. Chicago DFAed Arias in January.

The infielder-turned-reliever is still only 24 years old. His relative lack of pitching experience suggests there’s still time to clean up the control problems. FanGraphs ranked Arias at 11th in the Cubs’ farm system at the end of the 2024 season. MLB.com had him at 14th in 2024. Arias’ strikeout numbers and three-pitch arsenal could allow him to function as an effective multi-inning reliever in the early Jonathan Loaisiga mold. He’ll have to take a big step forward in the command department to become a major-league asset, though.

Photo courtesy of Dave Nelson, Imagn Images

Yankees, Yerry Rodriguez Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Yankees have agreed to a minor league contract with right-handed reliever Yerry Rodriguez, as first indicated on the transaction log at MLB.com. It’s a two-year minor league pact, agent Kelvin Nova tells MLBTR. Rodriguez underwent Tommy John surgery back in spring training, when he was a non-roster invitee with the Pirates. He’s targeting a midseason return to the mound in 2026.

Rodriguez, a hard-throwing 28-year-old, has appeared in parts of three big league seasons between the Rangers and Blue Jays. He’s pitched only 36 1/3 innings in the majors and been tagged for 33 runs in that time (8.17 ERA). He’s been plagued by a bloated .345 average on balls in play, but a penchant for walks and home runs have been larger detriments to his big league work.

Though he hasn’t had much success in limited MLB work, Rodriguez touts a 3.56 ERA in parts of eight minor league seasons. He’s punched out 27.8% of his minor league opponents, including a 28.3% strikeout rate in parts of four Triple-A seasons. Rodriguez has walked nearly 11% of his big league opponents but just 8.8% of opponents in the minors (albeit 12% in Triple-A).

Rodriguez has averaged 96.7 mph on his heater in the big leagues, pairing the pitch with a slider that sits 84 mph and a lesser-used changeup that sits 86.3 mph. Just one-third of the batted balls against Rodriguez in the majors have been grounders, but in a much larger sample of minor league work he’s routinely posted above-average ground-ball rates (47.5% in Triple-A) and strong swinging-strike rates.

Because he’ll still be rehabbing next spring, Rodriguez won’t be in the mix to vie for an Opening Day roster spot. He could be a midseason addition to the bullpen if he avoids any setbacks and pitches well on a rehab stint. If not, he’ll be in big league camp during spring training 2027. Rodriguez is out of minor league options, so if the Yankees add him to the roster at any point, they won’t be able to send him back down without first exposing him to waivers.

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