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Yankees Have Made New Offer To Aaron Judge

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Aaron Judge entered free agency on the heels of the best platform year we’ve seen in decades, having proven the decision to turn down the Yankees’ seven-year, $213.5MM extension offer back in Spring Training to be a wildly successful bet on himself. Judge, who naturally declined a qualifying offer last week, is now free to field interest from teams throughout the league, but Yankees general manager Brian Cashman and owner Hal Steinbrenner both voiced hope of getting a deal done and keeping Judge in the Bronx long-term.

Cashman confirmed to reporters last night that the team has already made a new offer to Judge (Twitter link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com), stating that because Judge’s free agency is playing out “in real time… we’re certainly not going to mess around.” Steinbrenner backed Cashman’s sentiment, stating that he’s met with Judge multiple times since the season ended and “absolutely conveyed” that he wants him “to be a Yankee for the rest of his life” (via Newsday’s David Lennon)

Naturally, because Judge is an active free agent, Cashman didn’t disclose the terms of any new offer(s) — as opposed to his surprisingly candid Spring Training press conference, wherein he publicly announced the financial details of the Yankees’ final extension offer to Judge.

Judge is widely expected to top that spring extension offer handsomely, perhaps establishing a new average annual value record for position players and/or a new free-agent contract record in the process. At present, no position player has topped the $36MM AAV on Mike Trout’s 10-year, $360MM extension with the Angels (though Max Scherzer’s $43.33MM AAV is the overall record among big leaguers). Bryce Harper’s $330MM contract is the largest ever signed in free agency (though not the largest contract ever, as there have been a handful of extensions promising larger total sums).

Even with some form of record payday likely looming for Judge — MLBTR predicted an eight-year, $332MM contract on last week’s Top 50 rankings — Steinbrenner went on to note that he’s made clear to Judge that there’s ample payroll space to not only re-sign the recently crowned AL MVP but also make further additions to supplement the roster (via Lennon).

Even without Judge, the Yankees are projected for a bottom-line payroll north of $206MM, per Roster Resource, and a luxury-tax bill that’s already at nearly $223MM. Judge alone would push the Yankees into the second tier of luxury penalization, and any subsequent moves of note would then likely push the team into the third or possibly even newly created fourth tier of luxury penalties. Of course, those figures assume that the Yankees will tender contracts to and subsequently keep all 14 of their arbitration-eligible players, which seems unlikely. At least some of that group figures to be non-tendered before tonight’s 8pm ET deadline or tendered but subsequently traded, which would obviously alter the calculus.

Aaron Judge Wins AL MVP

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AL home run record holder Aaron Judge has been named the league’s Most Valuable Player, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. Angels two-way star Shohei Ohtani finished second, followed by Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez.

Judge has been the favorite to claim the award since a few weeks into the year. The herculean slugger popped six home runs in the season’s first month and only picked up the pace from there. He topped double-digits in longballs in each of the next three months before collecting 20 more from August onwards. His homer pace hit a bit of a lull once he reached 60 and pulled within one of Roger Maris with a bit more than two weeks to play, but Judge eventually claimed the record with blasts off Tim Mayza and Jesús Tinoco.

It was an obviously historic season from a power perspective, but the three-time Silver Slugger winner’s achievements went beyond the longball. He flirted with a Triple Crown late in the season and ultimately finished second among AL qualifiers with a .311 batting average. His .425 on-base percentage paced the circuit, and his .686 slugging mark was well better than Alvarez’s second-place .613 figure. He also played a significant amount of innings in center field, adequately moving to the outfield’s most demanding position after a career spent mostly in right field.

Judge helped the Yankees to 99 wins and an American League East crown. He earned his fourth career All-Star selection, and finished in the top five in MVP balloting for the third time. It’s his first time winning the award, and it couldn’t have come at a better time personally. Judge is a first-time free agent, and his ultimate destination will be one of the storylines of the winter.

Ohtani comes in second place the year after winning his first MVP. An incomparable player, Ohtani hit 34 homers and posted a .273/.356/.519 line as a designated hitter. The right-hander also tossed a career-high 166 innings, posting a 2.33 ERA with an AL-leading 33.2% strikeout rate in 28 starts. On his pitching accomplishments alone, he finished fourth in Cy Young balloting. That’s nothing short of remarkable for a player who also finished fifth in slugging and fourth in longballs in the American League. If not for an historic offensive season from Judge, Ohtani would likely have flown to a second straight MVP.

Judge received 28 of 30 first-place votes, with Ohtani collecting the other two. They were 1-2 in some order on every ballot, while Alvarez picked up 22 third-place nods. The Houston star hit .306/.406/.613, trailing only Judge among AL players in on-base and slugging. He finished third in homers and earned his first All-Star selection and MVP finalist appearance.

Guardians third baseman José Ramírez secured six third-place votes and finished fourth overall. Astros second baseman José Altuve came in fifth, edging out Cleveland second baseman Andrés Giménez (the only player besides Alvarez and Ramírez to secure any third-place votes). Julio Rodríguez, Mike Trout, Xander Bogaerts and Cy Young winner Justin Verlander rounded out the top ten.

Full voting breakdown available here.

MLB Looking Into Potential CBA Violations By Multiple Teams Regarding Top Free Agents

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Major League Baseball has opened an investigation into the Yankees and Mets to determine if their owners improperly communicated about the free agency of AL MVP favorite Aaron Judge, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic.

The investigation is rooted in a column by Andy Martino of SNY earlier this month. Martino wrote the Mets were unlikely to pursue Judge in free agency, in part because of a mutual respect between Mets owner Steve Cohen and Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner.

As part of that piece, Martino wrote: “Talking to Mets people about this all through the year, the team in Queens sees Judge as a Yankee, uniquely tailored to be an icon in their uniform, stadium and branding efforts. Owners Steve Cohen and Hal Steinbrenner enjoy a mutually respectful relationship, and do not expect to upend that with a high-profile bidding war. The only way people involved can see the Mets changing course and pursuing Judge would be if the Yankees somehow declared themselves totally out of the bidding.”

To be clear, Martino didn’t characterize that as the sole reason the Mets could choose to sit out the Judge bidding, nor did he expressly state Cohen and Steinbrenner had talked about Judge’s free agency. He went on to note the Mets could be wary of signing another deal in excess of $300MM after extending Francisco Lindor last year.

The Mets could certainly make a legitimate baseball argument for not going after Judge, but communication among owners not to pursue a free agent — if it occurred — would be a collusive violation of the collective bargaining agreement. The MLB Players Association expressed concern about the SNY article to the league, Rosenthal notes, spurring the investigation. Rosenthal adds that MLB is expected to request communication records between Cohen and Steinbrenner.

In the 1980’s, arbitrators found a pattern of collusion among owners that depressed the 1985-87 free agent markets. In 1990, owners agreed to pay players $280MM as part of a settlement. Renewed collusion allegations arose in the early 2000’s, and Rosenthal notes the league agreed to a $12MM settlement but no admission of guilt during the 2006 CBA negotiations.

The MLBPA can file a grievance on Judge’s behalf, and Rosenthal writes the union would have to demonstrate both a) improper communication between the Yankees and Mets actually occurred and b) Judge’s market was harmed by that communication.

Meanwhile, Rosenthal suggests the MLBPA could take issue with the Astros in an unrelated matter. That’d relate to comments made by Houston owner Jim Crane last night on the free agent status of Cy Young winner Justin Verlander. Brian McTaggart of MLB.com wrote that “Crane said Verlander is seeking a deal similar to Max Scherzer,” who secured a three-year, $130MM deal with the Mets last winter, as part of an interview with MLB.com on Tuesday. Crane isn’t quoted on the record mentioning Scherzer, telling McTaggart of Verlander: “He’s looking at the comp, which I think there’s only one or two. … J.V.’s probably got a few years left, and he wants to make the most of it. I think he’s going to test the market on that.”

To be clear, there’s no suggestion Crane has been in conversations with other clubs about Verlander’s market. However, the CBA also expressly prohibits team officials from “(making) comments to the media about the value of an unsigned free agent, regardless of whether discussions have occurred,” including comments to the effect of “Player X is seeking more than Player Y received.”

If the Players Association decided to file a grievance against Houston, they’d likewise need to demonstrate Verlander’s market was harmed by Crane’s comments — ostensibly by arguing that Crane’s claims of the nine-time All-Star’s high asking price may deter other teams from jumping into the fray. To this point, there’s no indication the union has filed a grievance in either situation, but each bears monitoring over the coming weeks

Orix Buffaloes To Post Masataka Yoshida

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The Orix Buffaloes of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball are going to post outfielder Masataka Yoshida, according to a report from Yahoo Japan, making him eligible to explore opportunities with MLB clubs. (hat tip to JJ Cooper from Baseball America and Jason Coskrey on Twitter.) The Japanese-language link lists the Yankees, Mariners, and Blue Jays as those with interest.

Yoshida, 29, made his NPB debut with the Buffaloes in 2016 and has since established himself as a key contributor at the plate. In 2022, he played in 119 games, hitting 21 home runs and producing an overall batting line of .335/.447/.561. That level of production and Yoshida’s age should lead to him garnering plenty of interest from North American teams.

This year’s market for free agent outfielders isn’t huge in terms of quantity. MLBTR’s list of the top free agents featured Aaron Judge in the top spot and Brandon Nimmo at number nine. Those guys are both likely to receive nine-figure deals, but then there’s only a few guys capable of everyday jobs in the middle of the list. Joc Pederson accepted the qualifying offer to return to the Giants, leaving Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Haniger and Jurickson Profar as some of the few mid-market options. Then there are some guys likely to require less cost but with injury risks, such as Michael Conforto and Michael Brantley.

Teams will likely have wide variance in how they evaluate Yoshida, but it’s unlikely he will earn a contract that rivals the top-market guys. Seiya Suzuki was another highly-touted slugger who was posted a year ago and he eventually signed with the Cubs for five years and $85MM. He was 27 years old at the time, two years younger than Yoshida is now. That likely makes it difficult for Yoshida to beat Suzuki’s guarantee, though it’s possible some team values him significantly higher than the Cubs valued Suzuki. For the teams that miss out on the top free agent outfielders, Yoshida should add an interesting new option for the next tier of the market.

The fact that the Blue Jays and Mariners are two of the teams listed as being interested in Yoshida is quite interesting, given that those two clubs swung a trade earlier today to send Teoscar Hernandez from Toronto to Seattle. That gives the Blue Jays a clear opening in their outfield mix that they could slot Yoshida into. They do have George Springer, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Whit Merrifield, though Merrifield took over as the everyday second baseman down the stretch and could play there again in 2023. They’ve already been connected to Nimmo since the departure of Hernandez but Yoshida could also make sense.

For the Mariners, they now have Hernandez and Julio Rodriguez taking up two spots in their outfield mix, with Jesse Winker, Jarred Kelenic, Taylor Trammell, Sam Haggerty and Kyle Lewis on hand as options for a third spot. Winker has been mentioned as being available in trade discussions, but it would be a surprise to see the club fill out that last outfield position and block all of its young options from a path into the regular lineup.

For the Yankees, they have a clear need in the outfield with both Judge and Benintendi having reached free agency recently. They have Harrison Bader in place for center field but will likely be looking to add two outfielders before Opening Day. They have Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks on hand but Stanton has largely been a designated hitter for a while and can’t be counted on for everyday action in the outfield while Hicks is coming off a second straight disappointing year at the plate.

Once Yoshida is formally posted, there will be a 30-day window where MLB clubs can negotiate with his representatives. If a deal is reached, the signing team will also owe money to the Buffaloes, with that amount being relative to the size of the contract given. Any big league team that signs him would owe the Buffaloes a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. If he does not reach an agreement with an MLB team, he will return to the Buffaloes for 2023.

Yankees Select Randy Vasquez

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The Yankees announced this evening they’ve selected right-hander Randy Vásquez onto the 40-man roster. The move keeps him from being eligible for the Rule 5 draft.

Vásquez signed as an amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic during the 2018-19 international signing period. A curveball specialist, he recently ranked as the #9 prospect in the New York farm system at Baseball America. The outlet credits him with a low-mid 90s fastball and suggests he could develop into a back-of-the-rotation starter if he makes some strides with his control.

The 24-year-old spent this past season at Double-A Somerset. He made 25 starts and worked 115 1/3 innings, pitching to a 3.90 ERA with a 24.2% strikeout rate and a 48.3% ground-ball percentage. Those are both solid marks, as is his 8.3% walk rate. He figures to start next season at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre but has a good chance at debuting in the majors at some point in 2023.

Yankees To Re-Sign Anthony Rizzo To Multi-Year Deal

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The Yankees and Anthony Rizzo are in agreement to reunite on a two-year deal with a $40MM guarantee. That comes in the form of a $17MM salary in 2023 and 2024, followed by a $17MM club option for 2025 with a $6MM buyout.

Rizzo, 33, spent many years with the Cubs, a key part of the club’s core that broke the 108-year curse by winning the 2016 World Series. From 2014 to 2019, he was remarkably consistent and productive, hitting between 27 and 32 home runs in each of those six years. His wRC+ was always between 126 and 155, indicating he was between 26% and 55% above league average at the plate. His wins above replacement tally, according to FanGraphs, was between 3.2 and 5.3 in each of those campaigns.

The next two seasons saw Rizzo slide from those great heights somewhat, though he was still a strong performer. In the shortened 2020 campaign, he hit .222/.342/.414 for a wRC+ of 103. The next year, which included a midseason deal to the Yankees, came in at .248/.344/.440 and a wRC+ of 113.

Despite the slight downturn, he was still above-average at the plate and is generally considered a solid defender at first base. He was ineligible for a qualifying offer because of the midseason trade. He and the Yankees agreed to a deal that would keep him in the Bronx, with Rizzo earning $32MM over two years, though he could opt out of the final year and its $16MM salary.

Despite dealing with various ailments throughout 2022, he ended up having a nice bounceback campaign. His 32 home runs matched a career high and his .224/.338/.480 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 132. Based on that strong showing, he triggered his opt-out and returned to free agency in search of a larger deal. It’s also been speculated that the upcoming ban on aggressive defensive shifts will help him, given that his left-handed bat and low speed make him particularly vulnerable to those. The Yankees extended a $19.65MM qualifying offer to him, which he could have accepted and locked in a slight raise over his expected salary. But it seemed he had other suitors, with the Astros being one club known to have interest in him.

3pm Central time today was the deadline for players to accept or reject qualifying offers, with Rizzo among the 12 who declined, though reports emerged shortly thereafter that he and the Yankees agreed to a longer pact. Rizzo will return to his post at first base and earn $17MM per year, so very close to the QO, but he’ll actually have an AAV slightly ahead of it thanks to the buyout. His $40MM guarantee over two years comes out just barely ahead of the two years and $36MM projected by MLBTR.

By getting Rizzo to put pen to paper, the Yanks have prevented a key bat from departing in free agency. Of course, Rizzo is only the second most important player in this camp, as all eyes are squarely focused on Aaron Judge and whether the Yanks can convince him to stay. With Rizzo’s contract on the books, the club’s 2023 payroll is now around $207MM in the estimation of Roster Resource. Last year, they opened the season at $246MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, leaving them about $40MM in space before they’re caught up to that difference. Of course, if they are willing to increase their spending beyond last year’s levels, they should have even more to work with.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that Rizzo and the Yanks were reuniting on a multi-year deal. Andy Martino of SNY first relayed the two-year plus a club option framework. Jack Curry of YES Network was first on the dollars.

Image courtesy USA Today Sports.

12 Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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Twelve of the 14 players who received qualifying offers have rejected those one-year, $19.65MM contracts in favor of testing the open market, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Martin Perez and Joc Pederson are the only two who accepted a QO. Each of Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Dansby Swanson, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon, Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Anderson have rejected the deal. Anderson is already in agreement on a three-year contract with the Angels.

None of the news is all that surprising, aside from perhaps Anderson’s early multi-year strike with the Halos. Perez and Pederson were two of the three most likely candidates to take the QO. That the Giants tagged Pederson at all was a move few saw coming, and most believed he’d indeed take the QO once it was put forth.

None of Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson, deGrom, Rodon, Nimmo, Bassitt or Contreras likely gave much thought to the possibility. Eovaldi and Rizzo were more borderline candidates, but the latter quickly returns to the Yankees on a multi-year deal that’ll pay him around the QO rate over two guaranteed seasons. Eovaldi has yet to sign, but he’ll presumably continue to search for a longer-term contract after taking advantage of the five days to scour the market.

The clubs that saw a free agent decline a qualifying offer now stand to receive draft compensation if that player signs elsewhere. The value of the compensatory pick depends on a team’s status as a revenue sharing recipient and/or whether they paid the luxury tax in 2022. That’s also true of the draft choices and potentially international signing bonus space a team would have to forfeit to sign a qualified free agent from another team.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes broke down the forfeiture each team would have to surrender to sign a qualified free agent earlier this month. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk looked at the compensation each club would receive if one of these players signed elsewhere.

Mets Claim Stephen Ridings From Yankees

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The Yankees announced that right-hander Stephen Ridings was claimed off waivers by the Mets.

Ridings, 27, was drafted by the Cubs in 2016 but was traded to the Royals and later released. He signed a minor league deal with the Yankees prior to 2021 and briefly got up the majors as a COVID replacement. He only tossed five innings in that stint, spending most of the year in the minors but putting up very impressive numbers on the farm. Between Double-A and Triple-A, he threw 29 innings with a 1.24 ERA, 38.2% strikeout rate and 3.6% walk rate.

That was enough to get him added to the Yankee roster prior to the Rule 5 draft one year ago. However, shoulder issues landed him on the 60-day injured list in April and he never returned. He did start a rehab assignment in September, but only got into two minor league games before the offseason arrived.

Various teams are facing roster squeezes this week, since today is the deadline to add prospects to 40-man rosters in order to protect them from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. As such, some other players are going to get nudged out of their spots, and it seems that Ridings was once such player for the Yanks.

For the Mets, they are looking to rebuild essentially an entire bullpen as they saw Edwin Diaz, Mychal Givens, Adam Ottavino, Trevor Williams, Joely Rodriguez, Seth Lugo, Trevor May and Tommy Hunter all reach free agency as the season ended. They have already re-signed Diaz to return as their closer but they will have a lot of work to do in order to get the entire staff ready for 2023. Ridings has injury concerns but has yet to reach arbitration and still has option years remaining, meaning there’s little cost for the Mets to take a look and see how his arm looks going forward.

Astros Prioritizing Anthony Rizzo In First Base Search

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The defending World Series champions head into the offseason without many holes on the roster, but first base is a notable exception. The Astros got just a .235/.285/.371 showing from the bat-first position this past season, and they’ve seen both Yuli Gurriel and Trey Mancini hit the open market.

With J.J. Matijevic and Yainer Díaz standing as the primary in-house options at the start of the offseason, the Astros are virtually certain to add first base help in some capacity. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports Houston has set its sights on Anthony Rizzo as its top free agent target at the position. Rosenthal writes they’ve also expressed some interest in José Abreu and Gurriel as potential fallbacks.

Rizzo is back on the free agent market for the second straight offseason, although he’s facing a key decision in the first few days this time around. The Yankees tagged the left-handed hitter with a qualifying offer last week, just days after Rizzo declined a $16MM player option. Rizzo and his representatives at Sports One Athlete Management have until tomorrow at 4:00 pm EST to decide whether to accept that $19.65MM offer from New York or to turn it down — presumably in search of a multi-year pact.

Of course, the Yankees are among the most direct competitors to the Astros atop the American League. Houston and New York were top two in the Junior Circuit in regular season record and met in the AL Championship Series this year. The Astros handily controlled the Yankees in the postseason, but Rosenthal suggests the opportunity to poach a key bat from New York would be an added bonus for Houston as they try to remain atop the perch.

Doing so would require forfeiting a draft choice, as Rizzo would have to reject the Yankees’ QO to sign with Houston. The Astros neither paid the luxury tax nor received revenue sharing payments this year, so they’d be stripped of their second-highest pick in the 2023 draft and $500K in international signing bonus space to sign a qualified free agent. The Yankees would receive a compensatory pick if Rizzo signed elsewhere, but that selection would only come after the fourth round since New York did surpass the CBT threshold this year.

It seems far likelier the Yankees would prefer to see Rizzo stick around for another season than to collect that modest compensation, although it remains to be seen whether the first baseman’s camp will feel he could top the terms of the qualifying offer. Rizzo signed a two-year, $32MM guarantee (with the aforementioned opt-out capability) last winter coming off a .248/.344/.440 showing. He had a more impressive .224/.338/.480 line this year, matching a career-high with 32 home runs. It’d be understandable if Rizzo were looking to beat last winter’s deal building off a better platform season, but he’s now 33 years old and would require teams forfeiting a draft choice to sign him this time around — or, in the Yankees’ case, relinquishing the chance at a compensatory pick were they to bring him back.

Aside from Rizzo, the top free agent first basemen available are Abreu and Josh Bell. Neither player was eligible for a qualifying offer this winter, but each could prove more costly than Rizzo. Even after a down second half, Bell looks likely to land a three or four-year deal heading into his age-30 season off a .266/.362/.422 showing between the Nationals and Padres. Abreu is soon to be 36 and will be limited to shorter-term offers, but he hit .304/.378/.446 with the White Sox and could land the largest per-year salary of anyone in the first base class.

Gurriel and Mancini are among the lower-tier options, with the former having been a career-long member of the organization. Gurriel was the AL batting champion as recently as 2021, but he mustered only a .242/.288/.360 regular season showing this year before an excellent 12-game run in the playoffs. Mancini looks less likely to be back after struggling with the Astros following a deadline trade from the Orioles. Houston could also look to the trade market if they come up empty in free agency. They reportedly were in contact with the Rays about Ji-Man Choi before he was dealt to Pittsburgh, while Rhys Hoskins, Rowdy Tellez and Joey Meneses are among speculative trade candidates.

Hanging over all the Astros’ early offseason interest is a lack of front office clarity. After the team parted ways with general manager James Click last week, the team is without a presently stable baseball operations hierarchy. Owner Jim Crane is known to have taken an active role in the team’s decision-making, while Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reported over the weekend that assistant GM Andrew Ball and senior director of baseball strategy Bill Firkus were handling day-to-day operations.

Yankees Select Jimmy Cordero

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The Yankees announced that they have added right-hander Jimmy Cordero to their 40-man roster.

Cordero, 31, logged 83 innings of MLB action across the 2018-2020 time frame, putting up a 4.55 ERA in that time. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John surgery in March of 2021, wiping out that entire season. The White Sox outrighted him at the end of that campaign.

He signed a minor league deal with the Yankees for 2022 and was able to return to the mound by June. He eventually made 32 appearances for the Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders. In 38 2/3 innings, he posted a 2.09 ERA, along with a incredible 31.8% strikeout rate and 51.7% ground ball rate.

Based on that strong showing, he’s earned his way back onto a 40-man roster. He has one option year remaining, which will allow the Yankees to use him as an optionable depth arm in 2023. He has between two and three years of MLB service time, meaning they can keep him around for years to come if he continues to hang onto that roster spot.

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