MLBTR Poll: Didi Gregorius & The Qualifying Offer
Now that the Yankees’ season is over, their front office is left to ponder the futures of many of the club’s players, including shortstop Didi Gregorius. While Gregorius has largely been an above-average to excellent contributor since the Yankees acquired him entering 2015, the two sides’ five-year partnership may be on the verge of ending. Gregorius is weeks from a trip to free agency, where he’s easily slated to be the highest-upside shortstop available. The question, if Gregorius does reach the open market, is whether he’ll come with a qualifying offer attached.
The 29-year-old Gregorius would’ve been a slam dunk for a $17.8MM QO were he coming off a similar season to the ones he posted from 2017-18. Gregorius was a 4.0-fWAR player in each of those years, though he underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow after the latter of those campaigns. As a result, Gregorius didn’t debut this year until June 7. When Gregorius returned, he wasn’t the same player the Yankees grew accustomed to seeing in the previous two seasons. He wound up playing just about half the season (82 games) and slashing a mediocre .238/.276/.441 in 344 plate appearances. The power outburst Gregorius enjoyed from 2017-18 remained intact, evidenced by his 16 home runs and his .204 ISO, yet he still only managed an 84 wRC+ (he checked in at 122 just a year ago).
In light of his downtick in production this season, it’s fair to wonder whether the Yankees will qualify Gregorius and risk paying him a hefty sum for 2020. They did bring Gregorius back for a pricey $11.75MM in the wake of his TJ surgery last year, but as mentioned, he was coming off a much stronger season at the time. Now, it’s easy to imagine Gregorius accepting a much more expensive QO and trying for a bounce-back year in New York. Doing so would take a significant chunk out of the luxury tax-minded Yankees’ spending room for a position to which the club arguably doesn’t need to allocate a ton of financial resources. The Yankees could let Gregorius walk, plug Gleyber Torres in at short and use DJ LeMahieu at second. Alternatively, if the Yankees really want to go for a bold strike after yet another season without a World Series title, they could trade for someone like Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor, keep Torres at second and continue to move the versatile LeMahieu around the infield.
Regardless of whether Lindor’s a realistic trade target for the Yankees, what should they do with Gregorius in the next couple weeks? Is he worth taking a chance on via QO, or should general manager Brian Cashman let him hit the market unfettered?
(Poll link for app users)
Should the Yankees qualify Gregorius?
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Yes 52% (5,578)
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No 48% (5,101)
Total votes: 10,679
CC Sabathia Retires
CC Sabathia announced his retirement this morning on Twitter. Obviously, this comes as no surprise, as the entire season served as Sabathia’s retirement tour.
Sabathia first appeared in the majors as a 20-year-old rookie way back in 2001 for the Cleveland Indians. In a career spanning 19 seasons, Sabathia finished with 251 wins across 560 starts, compiling a 3.74 ERA/3.78 FIP, 3,577 1/3 innings, 3,093 strikeouts, summed to 63.0 bWAR/66.5 fWAR. It was certainly an impressive career for Sabathia, who pitched for the Indians, Brewers, and Yankees.
Sabathia won a World Series with the 2009 Yankees and made 6 All-Star teams. He won the Cy Young award for the Indians in 2007 after going 19-7 with a 3.21 ERA/3.14 FIP across a league-leading 241 innings. Sabathia ranks 16th all-time in strikeouts (3,093), 37th in pitcher fWAR (66.5), and 48th in wins (251). 68.75% of MLBTR readers believe Sabathia put together a Hall of Fame career.
It certainly didn’t finish in an optimal fashion, leaving the ALCS due to injury, but Sabathia appears to have no qualms about finishing out his career. He released a retirement statement with a tweet that that read simply, “Thank you, Baseball.”
Yankees Notes: Lindor, Shortstop, Cole
Many will categorize 2019 as a failure for the 103-win Yankees. For the most storied franchise in the game, anything less than a World Series victory is sufficient cause for handwringing. Chalk up 2019 as a close-but-no-cigar season – just a few outs here or there and the Yankees could be readying to take on the Nationals instead of watching from home. In a game with only one ultimate winner, however, 2019 goes down as a failed season even if, objectively, the Bronx provided some of the most potent, resilient, and thrilling baseball of the year. Moving forward, they have one of the strongest talent cores in baseball. And yet, in an era that includes a dynastic force like the Astros, savvy, irrepressible units in Oakland and Tampa Bay, and bounce-back potential in Boston, the Yankees owe their due diligence to improving the roster wherever possible. Starting pitching may be New York’s advertised soft spot, but they should target Francisco Lindor first and foremost, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Defense, baserunning, and an opportunity for diversified offense make Lindor a perfect fit on a roster of sluggers (though a player of Lindor’s caliber is a perfect fit on every roster). Let’s check in on what else is being said about the Bombers this morning…
- ESPN’s Buster Olney also targets shortstop as a position of reflection for the Yankees, though he emphasizes settling on a bellcow more than finding a significant upgrade. Didi Gregorius is a free agent likely facing a qualifying offer decision, and Gleyber Torres remains on-hand as the future somewhere up the middle. Given the keys to the car, Olney would also seek more production from the Yankee starting staff and left-handed hitting to balance the right-heavy group of savages already on-hand in the Bronx.
- After not making the World Series for the entirety of the 2010’s, there may in fact be some urgency to New York’s offseason, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Gerrit Cole is the obvious answer, but there are legitimate questions as to whether the Yankees will shell out top dollar for a pitcher for the first time since Masahiro Tanaka prior to 2014. It’s also not entirely clear if Cole, a California native, has any interest in pitching for New York. Brian Cashman hasn’t been willing to move his line when it comes to free agents of late, with Patrick Corbin‘s desire for a sixth contract year the most recent example, and it’s hard to argue with New York’s methods considering their recent success. On the other hand, Corbin will be playing in the World Series this week and the Yankees, of course, will not.
Quick Hits: Hicks, Didi, Bradley, Nats
As baseball takes a break until Tuesday night, we’ll touch on a few items pertaining to the upcoming offseason and looking back at how last offseason laid the foundation for where we stand.
- Aaron Hicks made a remarkable return to action in the ALCS after sitting out over two months with a flexor strain in his right elbow. We knew at the time that Tommy John Surgery was in consideration for the 30-year-old, and with the season now over, Hicks admits it was actually recommended by renowned orthopedic surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache, per MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch (via Twitter). Hicks reiterated last night he believes he’ll avert the operation given the progress he’s made with less drastic rehabilitation methods. Hicks, who signed a seven-year extension entering the season, is surely an integral part of the Bombers’ plans moving forward.
- It’s less clear if Didi Gregorius is part of the team’s future, but the five-year Yankee tells reporters, including James Wagner of the New York Times (Twitter link), he’d like to return to the Bronx. The 29-year-old is ticketed for free agency, where he profiles as the top shortstop option on the market. Gregorius didn’t play in the majors this season until June 7 owing to a Tommy John of his own, and he never got on track offensively, slashing .238/.276/.441 (84 wRC+) in 344 plate appearances. Nevertheless, Gregorius’ pre-2019 track record, age, and the scarcity of shortstops available in free agency make him a reasonable qualifying offer candidate. With a glut of infielders on hand, among them former shortstop prospect Gleyber Torres, Brian Cashman’s front office will have some tough decisions sorting out the infield mix this winter.
- The Reds discussed Jackie Bradley, Jr. with the Red Sox last offseason, relays the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale. While there’s no indication talks progressed very far or have picked up since, it’s still noteworthy to hear Cincinnati’s front office liked the player not too long ago. Bradley’s one of the offseason’s most obvious trade candidates, as we’ve already heard rumblings Boston would shop him this winter to ameliorate payroll concerns. MLBTR’s Connor Byrne recently explored Bradley’s market in full and noted that the Reds have some uncertainty in center field if they believe Nick Senzel to be more valuable at second base. Bradley didn’t have a banner 2019 season and comes with a rather significant arbitration projection ($11MM), but the free agent market in center field isn’t particularly robust.
- The Nationals aren’t turning their attention to next spring just yet. As the team gears up for a World Series showdown with the Astros, the Athletic’s Brittany Ghiroli looks back to the organization’s roster construction work last winter. General Manager Mike Rizzo was aggressive early in free agency, re-signing Kurt Suzuki and bringing aboard Patrick Corbin and Brian Dozier. A willingness to dangle a sixth year was perhaps the driving factor in getting Corbin (the Phillies and Yankees stopped at five), the prize of last offseason’s pitching market. That said, Rizzo’s forthrightness in negotiations certainly didn’t hurt, Corbin explains, and Dozier tells Ghiroli he declined more lucrative offers elsewhere out of a belief in what the Nats were building. It’s a worthwhile read for Nationals’ fans soaking up the enjoyment of the franchise’s first pennant.
MLBTR Poll: CC Sabathia’s Hall Of Fame Case
If his longstanding plan to retire at season’s end holds up, Yankees left-hander CC Sabathia has thrown the last pitch of his illustrious career. The 39-year-old suffered a shoulder injury during a relief appearance in New York’s Game 4 loss to Houston on Thursday, forcing the Yankees to pull him from their ALCS roster. That means even if the Yankees manage to overcome what’s now a 3-2 deficit against the mighty Astros to advance to the World Series, Sabathia won’t be eligible to participate in the Fall Classic.
Sabathia’s left to root for the Yankees to win it all without his help, though he told reporters it’s “kind of fitting” he’s going out this way. “I threw until I couldn’t anymore,” said Sabathia, whose left arm has been through the wringer since he debuted with the Indians back in 2001.
Between the regular season and the playoffs, Sabathia has amassed 3,707 2/3 innings. Also a former Brewer, whom he all but dragged to the playoffs in 2008 after they acquired him from the Indians, Sabathia has eclipsed 200 frames in eight different regular seasons. He fired 241 (the second-highest mark of his career) in 2007, his lone Cy Young-winning campaign.
Various injuries robbed Sabathia of the chance for another workhorse-type season in 2019, as he racked up a career-low 107 1/3 innings during his uncharacteristically ineffective swan song. Sabathia only pitched to a 4.95 ERA/5.66 FIP, but a subpar final season hardly overshadows the rest of a brilliant run in the majors. Owner of a lifetime 3.74 ERA/3.78 FIP, Sabathia’s going out as one of the premier starters in recent memory, giving him a legitimate chance for enshrinement in the Baseball Hall of Fame.
The question now is whether Sabathia should end up in Cooperstown, where he could earn a coveted plaque as early as 2025. As someone who ranks 16th all-time in strikeouts (3,093), 37th in pitcher fWAR (66.5), 48th in wins (251), 49th in pitcher bWAR (62.5) and 64th in regular-season innings (3,577 1/3), the credentials for strong consideration exist. He’s also a six-time All-Star, a one-time World Series champion (2009, when he was integral in the Yankees’ most recent title run) and, if it matters for his HOF odds, a revered teammate and leader. Whether all of that makes him a Hall of Famer is up for debate. What do you think?
(Poll link for app users)
CC Sabathia: Hall of Famer?
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Yes 70% (9,991)
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No 30% (4,206)
Total votes: 14,197
Yankees Replace CC Sabathia On ALCS Roster
10:34am: Sabathia has been diagnosed with a subluxation of his left shoulder joint, per the team. He’ll be replaced by righty Ben Heller.
6:07am: It appears that the long and storied career of Yankees lefty CC Sabathia is now at an end. He exited last night’s contest with an injury, with manager Aaron Boone saying after the game that Sabathia is likely to be replaced on the ALCS roster. Erik Boland of Newsday was among those to report the news via Twitter.
Sabathia, 39, was trying to bail his team out of an error-fueled jam when the trainer was summoned. Boone said after the game that the issue is in Sabathia’s pitching shoulder. Details are scant, but the skipper did say the outlook is “not good.”
The Yanks ended up dropping the messy game 5 contest by a score of 8-3. That puts the team in a 3-1 hole with Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole lined up to start for the Astros. Ripping off three-straight victories isn’t impossible, but will certainly be a tall order.
The front office will now need to settle on a roster replacement for Sabathia. The limitations of Giancarlo Stanton must also be considered; he’s said to be available to DH but is still dealing with a quad injury. Utilityman Tyler Wade and first baseman Luke Voit were both on the divisional series roster and remain options. Outfielder Mike Tauchman is also said to be available. It’s also possible the Yanks could instead add another arm.
As for Sabathia, he’s already committed to wrapping up his playing career at season’s end. But removing him from the roster would mean that he has now thrown his final pitches as a major leaguer. Sabathia would not be eligible to appear in the World Series — should the Yanks storm back and qualify — if he’s taken off of the ALCS roster.
Tauchman Available For Yankees If Roster Move Needed
It’s only been five weeks since outfielder Mike Tauchman was diagnosed with a Grade 2 calf strain that came with a six- to eight-week recovery timetable, seemingly ending his season. However, general manager Brian Cashman told Joel Sherman of the New York Post prior to today’s Game 3 against the Astros that Tauchman is “healthy end eligible” to return to the roster, should New York need to place Giancarlo Stanton (or anyone else) on the injured list.
Stanton is currently day-to-day with a quadriceps issue and didn’t start either Game 2 or Game 3 of the current series, but he homered in Game 1 and is hitting .300/.467/.600 thus far in a tiny sample of 15 postseason plate appearances. His bat would be a welcome addition against a potent ‘Stros pitching staff, of course, but playing shorthanded also does the club no favors. That said, putting Stanton on the injured list is no small decision; should the Yankees do so and then advance to the World Series, Stanton would be ineligible to return. Notably, there’s quite a bit of rain in tomorrow’s forecast in New York, and potential postponement could buy the team some time to further deliberate.
Tauchman, 28, was a godsend for the injury-plagued Yankees in 2019. The 2013 tenth-round pick never got an extended look in the Majors with the Rockies, but he stepped up with a strong .277/.361/.504 batting line with 13 home runs, 18 doubles and a triple in 296 plate appearances. Even if Tauchman isn’t added to the ALCS roster, the Yankees would have the ability to reset their 25-man group between the ALCS and a theoretical World Series berth.
Latest On Giancarlo Stanton
Oct 15: Stanton is out the lineup once again for Game 3. Said manager Aaron Boone, as relayed in a tweet from MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch: “[Stanton] wants to play. But we’ve also had some real conversations about, you’ve got to be honest with where you’re at. I mean, there is an injury in there.”
Oct 13: Giancarlo Stanton isn’t in the Yankees’ lineup for Game 2 of the ALCS due to a quad strain, manager Aaron Boone told James Wagner of the New York Times (Twitter links) and other reporters. Cameron Maybin will take Stanton’s spot in left field for tonight’s game.
Stanton suffered the injury while beating out an infield single in the second inning of Game 1, though it wasn’t serious enough for him to stop playing. In fact, Stanton even homered in a later at-bat, before finally being replaced by Maybin prior to the bottom of the eighth (seemingly just for defensive purposes). A post-game MRI, however, revealed the strain, hence Stanton’s absence from the lineup. He could still potentially come off the bench to pinch-hit, or play in case of an emergency situation. Boone was hopeful that the slugger would return to the starting nine at some point in the series, perhaps as early as Game 3 if Monday’s off-day provided enough time for Stanton to heal up.
2019 has already been an injury-marred season for Stanton, who played in only 18 games due to a variety of biceps, calf, shoulder, and knee problems, most notably a strained PCL in his right knee. In the wake of such a year (not to mention Stanton’s lengthy injury history in past seasons), this day-to-day quad issue looms larger for him than it would for most other players. To be fair, Boone could be engaging in a bit of gamesmanship against the Astros by not putting any sort of timeline on Stanton’s return, though it also could be that the Yankees themselves are being as cautious as possible with the outfielder’s status. If Stanton is removed from the ALCS roster due to injury, he would be ineligible for the World Series if New York were to advance.
With Stanton sidelined, the Yankees have four outfielders (Aaron Judge, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, and Maybin) remaining on their roster, with Hicks himself only just returning from a late-season elbow injury.
Quick Hits: Cubs, Dominguez, Beer
Some stray items from around the Show….
- Can Theo Epstein’s front office get the Cubs back on track? Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times explores the question in a detailed look at the challenges facing the team this winter, as the team’s overhaul has already led to the end of Joe Maddon’s managerial tenure but seemingly no major shuffles coming to the baseball operations department. The Cubs’ lack of success in 2019 had arguably less to do with Maddon and more to do with the team finally paying the price after several ill-fated acquisitions clogged the roster and the farm system failed to produce much high-impact talent (especially on the pitching side). Wittenmyer wonders if Epstein and top lieutenants Jed Hoyer and Jason McLeod can guide the Cubs through this reload period now that “the industry has caught up” to some of the roster-building strategies deployed by Epstein and company in rebuilding the Cubs, or in building the Red Sox into World Series winners last decade. To Epstein’s credit, his post-season remarks to reporters included several admissions that mistakes were made by his baseball ops group, and more significant change is on the way to the big league roster. “If you want to say we were stubborn with this group, I think that’s fair. We had a real belief in this group. That’s an area where I need to do a better job as a leader, letting go of the past and focusing on the future,” Epstein said.
- “It’s never an easy thing to drop $5.1MM on one player, but he made it pretty easy,” Yankees international scouting director Donny Rowland told Baseball America’s Ben Badler (subscription required) about Dominican prospect Jasson Dominguez. The 16-year-old Dominguez’s $5.1MM payday matched the highest bonus given to any player in this year’s international draft class, and his stock has only continued to rise now that he has seen some action in the Dominican instructional league. Badler’s piece details how the Yankees’ international scouting staff first came across Dominguez, and how the youngster is already showing potential as a five-tool center fielder (not to mention a sixth tool of plate discipline).
- While playing in the Arizona Fall League, Diamondbacks prospect Seth Beer is focusing on answering questions about his defensive future by improving his first base glovework, Baseball America’s Bill Mitchell writes. The Astros selected Beer with the 28th overall pick of the 2018 draft, though he is best known for being part of the prospect package Houston sent to Arizona in the Zack Greinke trade deadline blockbuster. Beer has carried the hitting prowess he displayed at Clemson into his pro career, but since sticking as an outfielder may not be feasible, Beer has seen a good deal of first base time in order to establish a position for himself. Playing in an NL organization, he also doesn’t have the future comfort of a designated hitter spot. On the plus side, Beer is “excited” to have a clearer path to the big leagues with the D’Backs than he did in Houston, calling the trade “a great opportunity for me in my career.”
AL Notes: Yankees, Astros, Red Sox
Ken Davidoff of The New York Post spoke with a Rays official in the wake of the team’s close-but-not-quite battle with the mighty Houston Astros, and the Tampa employee believes his team’s ALDS strategy could end up changing the shape of the postseason. “We gave the Yankees a blueprint for how to pitch them,” the official told Davidoff (link).
There’s certainly some merit to that takeaway. Although the Astros have been expected to steamroll their way to the Fall Classic for most of the year (Fangraphs’ playoff odds have tabbed Houston with a 30 percent-or-better chance to win the championship for much of the season), the Rays came awfully close to taking them down within the first round of the playoffs, in part via a bullpen-heavy mix-and-match pitching strategy. As Davidoff points out, just one Rays pitcher–starter Charlie Morton–threw long enough to qualify for a decision in the ALDS, with manager Kevin Cash calling on 11 separate pitchers to tame the wild Astros offense. Houston’s offense mustered just a .700 OPS in the divisional round against this all-hands-on-deck approach, and will now square off with a Yankees team that, for what it’s worth, notched a competent 4.08 collective bullpen ERA in 2019 (good for 9th in MLB). However, Tampa’s approach, it should be noted, may have had something to do with the fact that Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell, two of their frontline starters, were forced to work in limited capacity; the Yankees should be able to sport a more traditional look with their James Paxton/Luis Severino/Masahiro Tanaka starting triumvirate, although Severino’s own 2019 injury considerations could preclude an early dip into the pen by manager Aaron Boone.
- After reassigning Dana LeVangie to their scouting department, the Red Sox are in search of a new pitching coach. As Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe opines, that’s a search that could have great import for the club moving forward, as the Sox will be on to their fourth pitching coach in the last six seasons in 2020 (link). It’s also a hiring search that carries far more nuance than it might have in previous eras, as modern pitching coaches are expected to blend data and biomechanical considerations with the more traditional soft skills involved with instruction–and that’s before accounting for a coach’s personal baseball-playing background. As Abraham notes, the Twins hired Wes Johnson to be their main source of pitching instruction in 2018, despite Johnson’s complete lack of professional playing experience. The club’s ultimate selection should give some indication of the philosophical leanings of Boston’s current, interim leadership group, which includes assistant GM Eddie Romero; the new coach’s ability to reign in the talents of David Price and Chris Sale should go a long way toward finally bringing some stability to the Boston pitching post.