Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees
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What was supposed to be a transitional year for the Yankees instead nearly resulted in a World Series berth, as breakouts from Rookie of the Year Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks and Luis Severino (among others) propelled the club to a 91-71 record. With an excellent young core and a still-stacked farm system, the Yankees look like a powerhouse for years to come.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jacoby Ellsbury, OF: $68.4MM through 2020 (full no-trade clause)
- Masahiro Tanaka, SP: $67MM through 2020
- Aroldis Chapman, RP: $65MM through 2021 (may opt out after 2019, full no-trade protection through ’19)
- Starlin Castro, 2B; $22MM through 2019
- Chase Headley, 3B/1B: $13MM through 2018
- Brett Gardner, OF: $13MM through 2018 (includes $2MM buyout of $12.5MM club option for 2019)
- David Robertson, RP: $13MM through 2018
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Adam Warren (5.036) – $3.1MM
- Didi Gregorius (4.159) – $9.0MM
- Dellin Betances (4.078) – $4.4MM
- Sonny Gray (4.061) – $6.6MM
- Austin Romine (4.045) – $1.2MM
- Aaron Hicks (4.041) – $2.9MM
- Tommy Kahnle (3.015) – $1.3MM
- Chasen Shreve (2.155) – $900K
- Non-tender candidate: Romine
Free Agents
[New York Yankees Depth Chart | New York Yankees Payroll Outlook]
The Yankees traded their top two relievers and their designated hitter in July 2016 and played the uncharacteristic part of a deadline seller. Despite ponying up to pay Aroldis Chapman on a record-setting five-year contract, they weren’t viewed as a major threat in the AL East. Aaron Judge didn’t even enter Spring Training with a surefire spot on the big league roster — and certainly no one forecast an 8-WAR, MVP-caliber season from him — while their rotation came with injury question marks and inexperience. Could CC Sabathia endure another full, healthy season at age 37? Would Luis Severino bounce back after posting a 5.83 ERA and losing his rotation spot in 2016? Could Jordan Montgomery serve as a viable rotation member at age 24 with just 37 Triple-A innings under his belt? The answer, across the board, proved to be a resounding yes.
The Yankees’ first-half results were impressive enough that GM Brian Cashman elected to begin a good portion of his offseason shopping back in July. Even with the success in their rotation, the Yankees were cognizant of the fact that Sabathia’s contract was expiring, as was that of Michael Pineda (who had already undergone Tommy John surgery). Acquiring Sonny Gray gave the Yanks two and a half years of control over an arm that can slot comfortably into the second or third slot in their rotation. Picking up David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle (along with rental piece Todd Frazier) in a massive trade with the White Sox ensured a deep and talented bullpen and left the club with little need to pay top-of-the-market prices for additional relief help this winter.
While some of their needs are already filled, the Yankees have one gaping hole in the organization that few would’ve predicted: manager. After a decade-long run at the helm of the Yankees, Joe Girardi was informed by the team that his contract would not be renewed. Reports since his fairly stunning dismissal have suggested that the Yankees want more of a “player’s” manager and that Girardi’s relationship with Cashman wasn’t particularly strong toward the end of his tenure.
Whoever succeeds Girardi will be inheriting an enviable roster that is backed by a deep farm system. However, he’ll also have to contend with the largest and one of the most critical media markets in the country and extremely high expectations from a fanbase that is now dreaming of a World Series run. To date, Eric Wedge is the only reported candidate with prior experience as a big league manager. If the Yankees do go with a rookie skipper, it will be baptism by fire in every sense of the cliche.
Looking to the Yankees’ roster, there aren’t many glaring deficiencies — as one would expect from a team that won 91 games. Greg Bird has yet to prove himself over the life of a full season at first base, but Cashman has stated on-record that he expects Bird to be their first baseman next year as the team looks to drop under the luxury tax barrier. Despite plenty of speculation over the summer, there won’t be a pursuit of Eric Hosmer.
Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner and Judge are all but assured of regular playing time. Chase Headley once again rebounded from a slow start to finish with decent numbers, though he’ll be pushed by prospects Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar at some point in 2018. Gary Sanchez will hold down regular catching duties, though the team could certainly stand to explore the possibility of adding a better backup — potentially allowing Sanchez to spend some more time at DH.
Austin Romine’s batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage all fell shy of the .300 mark, and he threw out just 3 of 29 potential base thieves. Alex Avila would make for a nice left-handed complement to Sanchez (not that he needs platooning) and could also handle some first base if needed. Chris Iannetta would be another affordable veteran coming off a nice year in Arizona.
Plenty of Yankees fans have speculated about the possibility of a Starlin Castro trade on the heels of two decent but unspectacular seasons in the Bronx. The 27-year-old (28 in March) has been a roughly league-average bat with questionable second-base defense in two years with the Yankees, and he’s owed $22MM over the next two years. Trading him could allow the Yankees to play both Andujar (third base) and Torres (second base) with regularity on either side of Gregorius. However, there’s not much in the way of surplus value on Castro’s contract, and it’s a poor time to be selling a second baseman. Neil Walker stands as a quality free-agent option, and the trade market also features the likes of Ian Kinsler, Dee Gordon and Cesar Hernandez, among several others. Beyond that, there aren’t that many clubs seeking second-base upgrades in the first place. It’s certainly not impossible to envision a Castro trade, but it is difficult to imagine too much of a market for his services developing.
If there’s one contract that Yankees fans are clamoring to move, however, it’s that of Jacoby Ellsbury. The 34-year-old still has a whopping three years and $68.5MM remaining on his contract, to say nothing of a full no-trade clause. The Yankees will play Gardner in left, Hicks in center and Judge in right even with Ellsbury in the fold, but his presence makes it more difficult to carry Clint Frazier on the roster and also limits the team’s financial flexibility moving forward.
Unfortunately, Ellsbury hasn’t performed anywhere near well enough to make his contract movable in its current state. It’s difficult to envision him receiving even three years and $30MM on the open market right now, and I’d wager that the Yankees would need to be open to eating as much as $40-45MM to facilitate a deal. The Mariners are an oft-speculated fit given Ellsbury’s Oregon roots, but they have a crowded payroll as it is and better options to pursue in free agency.
One completely speculative possibility would be a swap involving Ellsbury and former Yankee Ian Kennedy, who is still owed $49MM over the remainder of his own undesirable deal. The Yankees would likely need to include some decent minor league talent to pique Kansas City’s interest — there’s no reason for the Royals to simply take on Ellsbury’s larger contract, especially when they need to fill their rotation — but adding an upper-level minor league arm that could affordably replace Kennedy is an intriguing concept. The Yankees would still have an overpaid fifth starter in Kennedy, but they’d lessen their luxury tax ledger considerably and open a spot to more easily fit Frazier onto the roster. (More broadly, the Yankees will again look for ways to take advantage of their overstuffed 40-man roster while also opening room for the next wave of prospects in need of protection.)
The 2018 rotation outlook was the most significant question for the Yankees heading into the season. Back in Spring Training, I noted that with Sabathia, Masahiro Tanaka and Pineda all potential free agents at season’s end and Severino/Montgomery both unproven, there was potential for a truly murky outlook. What a difference six months makes.
Severino looks likely to be the team’s Opening Day starter next year, and he’ll be trailed by Gray, Montgomery and Tanaka. The 29-year-old Tanaka made the rather surprising decision to remain with the Yankees rather than opting out of the final three years and $67MM on his contract. While it’s true that Tanaka’s ERA isn’t exactly sparkling, the righty was excellent from early June through season’s end, shined in the postseason, and generally delivered sensational K/BB numbers over the course of the season. Topping $67MM on the free-agent market looked like a clearly attainable goal (unless medical reports on his elbow are more troubling than we know), but Tanaka called the decision “simple” in announcing the move and voiced a love of New York City and the Yankees’ fans. The feeling should be mutual, as it’s a nice price for a quality player at a position of need.
With Severino, Gray, Tanaka and Montgomery all penciled into the rotation, there’s little cause to pursue a high-priced starter. A reunion with CC Sabathia makes some sense on a short-term deal, though Yankees fans are almost universally fixated on a deal with a pitcher that is nearly a decade and a half younger. Japanese superstar Shohei Ohtani will be posted by the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters if the league, the players union and Nippon Professional Baseball all agree to a new posting system. It’s not yet a guarantee that’ll happen — there’s a Monday deadline to find out — but if Ohtani becomes available, the Yankees will be among the teams favored to land him.
New York can currently offer a $3.25MM bonus, though there’s still time to trade for additional international money. The Rangers ($3.535MM) can offer the most, while the Twins ($3.245MM) are right behind the Yankees. It’s early to pencil Ohtani into their starting five, but doing so would give the Yankees a powerhouse rotation on paper and could allow the club to more freely entertain the notion of including pitching prospects like Chance Adams and Justus Sheffield in trades.
Turning to the bullpen, there’s no need for a significant overhaul. The Yankees’ pen will once again be anchored by Chapman, and the setup core currently projects to include Dellin Betances, Robertson, Kahnle, Chad Green, Adam Warren and Chasen Shreve. Another lefty could be of interest for matchup purposes, especially since most of the Yankees’ upper-level arms are right-handed, but many of the Yankees’ right-handed setup options shut down lefties as well as righties last year.
Given the depth of that group, it’s worth wondering if they’ll all return. Specifically, Betances comes to mind as a particularly obvious trade chip. The bizarre manner in which Yankees president Randy Levine called out Betances after last year’s arbitration hearing drove somewhat of a wedge between the two sides, and while Betances remains a supremely talented reliever, he also battled serious control issues in 2017 (6.6 BB/9 during the regular season plus five walks in four playoff innings).
Betances has two years of arbitration remaining and has averaged better than 15 punchouts per nine innings in the past two seasons, so he’d certainly appeal to other clubs. It doesn’t seem likely that the Yankees would simply trade Betances for a prospect(s) given their desire to compete, but they could use Betances to fill another need — such as a solid left-handed setup option with more team control, perhaps from a team looking for a shorter-term upgrade at the back of its ‘pen. Doing so could also spare the Yankees a slight bit of luxury tax concern, and while that wouldn’t be a main factor in a theoretical swap, it could be a bonus.
After all, both Cashman and Steinbrenner have plainly stated that their firm plan is to get under the $197MM luxury tax line. Doing so would reset the Yankees’ penalty level — tax penalization is compounded for each consecutive year that a team is over the threshold — in advance of next year’s class of free agents. At that point, both Manny Machado and Bryce Harper will be available at the respective ages of 25 and 26. Clayton Kershaw, too, figures to be a free agent once he opts out of the remaining two years on his contract.
The Yankees still have some wiggle room — roughly $25MM or so in average annual value — to make some additions to next year’s roster. However, their proximity to the luxury tax line and stated desire to stay south of it makes it exceptionally unlikely that they’ll be a player for a major item such as Giancarlo Stanton. Even if the Yankees could acquire Stanton and ever-so-slightly stay under the luxury tax line, they’d be leaving themselves with little room for making in-season moves to address injuries and other unforeseen circumstances that arise over the course of a given year.
Rather than a major item like Stanton, it’s possible that the Yankees will instead look to beef up their bench with an improvement at backup catcher or utility infielder — they’re reportedly interested in Texas’ Jurickson Profar, for instance. They could also poke around the left-handed relief market and talk to names like Mike Minor, Jake McGee and Tony Watson.
Certainly, if the team could somehow find a way to jettison some of Ellsbury’s contract or move Headley, there’d be more flexibility for a big ticket item. It seems likelier, though, to expect a more reserved offseason in the Bronx prior to a more aggressive offseason approach following the 2018 campaign.
Yankees Reportedly Interested In Jurickson Profar
10:57am: Most teams have at least checked in on Profar’s availability, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (on Twitter). Grant, however, adds that he finds it likelier that Profar would be part of a larger deal than this and/or that the Rangers would wait until deeper into the offseason to make a move.
10:01am: The Yankees have interest in swinging a deal for Rangers infielder Jurickson Profar in the next few days, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The Yanks are a surprising entrant into Profar’s list of potential suitors given their considerable infield depth. New York has Didi Gregorius at shortstop, Starlin Castro at second base and Chase Headley at third, with Ronald Torreyes in a utility role and well-regarded prospects Gleyber Torres and Miguel Andujar on the cusp of MLB-readiness. Young Tyler Wade represents another utility option that is already on the 40-man roster.
Nonetheless, Sherman notes, the Yankees are intrigued by the idea of adding the game’s former No. 1 overall prospect in exchange for some of the pitchers on the fringes of their 40-man roster as they look to set that 40-man roster in advance of the Rule 5 Draft. The deadline to add players to the 40-man roster in advance of the Rule 5 Draft will come on Monday. Names like Bryan Mitchell, Caleb Smith, Luis Cessa and Chasen Shreve are among those listed by Sherman as possible players on the Yankees’ 40-man bubble.
[Related: New York Yankees depth chart & Texas Rangers depth chart]
Profar has long been an obvious trade candidate. The Rangers have Elvis Andrus at shortstop and Adrian Beltre at third base, and they committed to Rougned Odor as their long-term second baseman last offseason by signing him to a $49.5MM extension. While both Beltre and Andrus could leave the Rangers after next season — Beltre’s contract runs through 2018, while Andrus has an opt-out next offseason — the Rangers don’t have much of a spot for Profar in the interim. He’s out of minor league options and hasn’t thrived in a utility role in recent seasons.
The Rangers, furthermore, need starting pitching depth more than almost any other club in the Majors. Their rotation options beyond Cole Hamels and Martin Perez (neither of whom was impressive in 2017) are sparse, at best. If the Yankees like the idea lessening their 40-man crunch by condensing two arms into a single player with greater individual upside, then Profar certainly makes some degree of sense.
Of course, it remains to be seen just how Profar would fit into their plans. He’s controllable for another three seasons but cannot be optioned to the minors, meaning he’d leapfrog one of Torreyes or Wade on the current depth chart. Neither Torreyes nor Wade has proven himself to be an especially potent bat in the Majors, though the same can be true of Profar. That said, Profar was once considered baseball’s best prospect before a pair of shoulder surgeries wiped out two years of his career, and he did hit .287/.383/.428 in 383 Triple-A plate appearances this season. The Yankees may very well relish the notion of acquiring a player they can slot in at any position on the infield if he comes with greater offensive upside than either of their currently projected utility candidates.
Trade Rumblings: Padres, Ellsbury, Profar, Cardinals
The Padres have built up a number of options to use at second base or third base in 2018 and beyond, so much so that they’re receiving calls on infielders Yangervis Solarte, Cory Spangenberg and Carlos Asuaje, reports MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell. “That’s an area where we’ve created some Major League depth,” GM A.J. Preller said. “…It gives us a group of infielders that we’re excited about. And it’s a group that, other teams, they see that depth as well.” Solarte is the most established of the bunch and is cost-controlled through 2020 thanks to last offseason’s contract extension. He’ll earn $4.125MM in 2018 and has a pair of options valued at $5.5MM and $8MM for the following two seasons. Spangenberg is arbitration-eligible through that same period of time, while Asuaje can still be controlled all the way through the 2023 season.
A few more notes on some trade scenarios throughout the league…
- Though many Yankees fans may be hopeful that the team can find a way to shed some of Jacoby Ellsbury‘s contract this winter, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post reports that there’s been no traction to this point on a potential deal. In fact, GM Brian Cashman tells Davidoff that he hasn’t so much as even broached the subject of Ellsbury’s no-trade clause with agent Scott Boras. “They have the full no-trade for a reason and I would walk through that process with the highest level of communication and respect because of it,” says Cashman. In addition to that full no-trade provision, Ellsbury is guaranteed more than $65MM over the life of the next three seasons, meaning the Yankees would have to pay down a massive amount of that remaining salary in order to facilitate a deal.
- Jurickson Profar is among the most oft-speculated trade candidates of the winter, but GM Jon Daniels stressed today that the Rangers don’t need to move him to another club this winter (link via MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan). Profar, 25 in February, will be out of minor league options next season and will need to be carried on the 25-man roster to avoid being exposed to waivers. However, Daniels notes that Elvis Andrus has the ability to opt out of his contract following the 2018 season — the same point at which Adrian Beltre‘s contract will expire. To be sure, there’d be sense in keeping Profar around in a utility capacity next year while prepping him for a potentially larger role, though there still figures to be interest as teams look to buy low on the former No. 1 overall prospect.
- The Cardinals are looking to trade multiple outfielders given their logjam of upper-level talent, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The Phillies, Orioles and Giants have had interest in some of the Cards’ outfielders in the past, Goold notes, adding that Randal Grichuk is the outfielder that “comes up the most often.” Goold also reports that the Dodgers tried to pry Tommy Pham away from the Cardinals prior to the non-waiver trade deadline but were unsuccessful in doing so. In addition to Grichuk and Pham, the Cards have Stephen Piscotty, Dexter Fowler and Jose Martinez at the big league level. Beyond that, younger options include Harrison Bader, Magneuris Sierra, Randy Arozarena (who Goold profiles at the beginning of his column) and Tyler O’Neill.
AL West Rumors: Mariners, Ohtani, Ichiro, Astros, Bush, Melvin, Maxwell
Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto acknowledged to reporters at the GM Meetings that his club has interest in right-hander Shohei Ohtani, though like other GMs, his comments were mostly vague (link via Greg Johns and Joe Frisaro of MLB.com). “We, like 29 other clubs, have scouted him extensively,” said Dipoto. (Johns and Frisaro note that Dipoto and VP of scouting Tom Allison watched Ohtani pitch in Japan this past September.) “…He’s obviously an incredibly talented player and whoever gets him will be quite happy, I’m sure.” Dipoto wouldn’t comment on whether the team is giving serious consideration to a reunion with Ichiro Suzuki, who is now a free agent. While Dipoto suggested that Ichiro’s free agency “opens a door,” he went on to add that he’s “not entirely sure” it’d be a priority, given the team’s needs at first base, in center field and on the pitching staff.
More from the division…
- Fresh off a World Series victory, the Astros would like to supplement their bullpen with a left-handed reliever, reports Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle. Kaplan lists Mike Minor and Jake McGee as two potential targets for the ‘Stros, noting that Minor’s frequent outings of more than one inning in 2017 could appeal to Houston. So, too, could the fact that he thrived in his limited time as a closer and has no discernible platoon split, thus giving Houston a possible safety net in the event that Ken Giles‘ struggles carry over into the 2018 season.
- The Rangers will let right-hander Matt Bush spend the offseason preparing for a potential rotation spot in 2018, tweets Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Bush, who had shoulder surgery last month but is expected to be ready for Spring Training, turned in strong numbers as a reliever for the Rangers in each of the past two seasons. Overall, he’s worked to a 3.08 ERA with 9.4 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 with 0.87 HR/9 in 114 innings. The Rangers won’t make a definitive decision on his role for another couple of months, however, Grant adds, which could indicate that Bush’s fate will be somewhat determined by the other additions GM Jon Daniels and his staff are (or aren’t) able to make this offseason.
- The Yankees asked the Athletics for permission to interview manager Bob Melvin for their own managerial opening but were rebuffed, reports Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter). John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle writes that GM David Forst on Monday called Melvin “absolutely the right guy” to be guiding the Athletics’ rising core of young position players. Forst suggested to reporters that the A’s will look to bolster the bullpen and to add a right-handed-hitting corner outfield bat this offseason, noting that a rotation upgrade is a possibility but “not a priority,” Shea continues.
- Athletics catcher Bruce Maxwell plead not guilty to assault and disorderly conduct charges on Tuesday, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Maxwell was arrested on Oct. 28 and charged with aggravated assault with a deadly weapon and disorderly conduct after allegedly waving a gun at a Postmates employee that was making a delivery to his house, per Slusser. There’s no trial date set for now, and a hearing wouldn’t come until sometime in early 2018. MLB will conduct an investigation into the matter, but no announcement of any discipline would come until after a hearing (or a theoretical settlement).
GM Meetings Notes: The American League East
Rivals are no doubt watching to see how the Rays decide to approach the offseason, as the team’s stable of intriguing trade candidates could change the market quite a bit. The organization is still at “an info-gathering stage,” GM Erik Neander tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. It seems, though, that there’s at least some consideration of dealing some veteran assets. Topkin analyzes the possibility of a full-throated rebuild, something that Neander acknowledges having considered. Of course, the young GM also says he doesn’t think a focus on the future “necessarily always has to come from tearing an organization down to the studs and then building it up.” Indeed, he argues that the Rays have managed to amass young talent while remaining competitive, even if the results haven’t quite been there of late.
More from Tampa Bay and the rest of the AL East:
- Also tackling the Rays situation were Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link) and Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. Rosenthal calls on Tampa Bay to “deconstruct,” perhaps to the point of marketing all of its best MLB talent, while Heyman says that Tampa Bay is listening to interest from other organizations on its top assets. Both pieces note that third baseman Evan Longoria remains just shy of ten-and-five rights, meaning he can’t block a trade, though Rosenthal also suggests he wouldn’t stand in the way of a move if the club decides not to compete. While Longoria clearly isn’t the team’s most valuable asset — that’d be righty Chris Archer — and is coming off of his worst-ever offensive campaign, the 32-year-old would still surely draw real interest from organizations in need of a third baseman.
- Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski covered a host of topics in his chat with reporters yesterday. As Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reports, some of the most interesting comments covered the team’s search for a “proven bat.” Most notably, Dombrowski suggested that there are limits to the team’s willingness to pursue trade avenues, with the Sox uninterested in dealing away current MLB assets and cognizant of the need to “be careful” of further depleting their stock of prospects. With Boston having dipped below the luxury tax line last year, perhaps it’s now more appealing to take on salary via free agency than to give value in trade. Meanwhile, Dombrowski addressed the question of how the team will help cover for Dustin Pedroia early in the season. He hinted that a significant acquisition might not be necessary, highlighting Marco Hernandez as a strong internal candidate to bridge the gap.
- One key need for the Blue Jays is to find a quality middle infielder to supplement the team’s injury-prone duo of Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis, as Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca writes. The team is looking for a player that is capable of handling more-or-less full-time duties, even if that may not ultimately be required. “Our priority is complementing our infield in some way with versatility, someone that can not just play when needed, but someone who can potentially get 600 plate appearances across our infield in some form or fashion,” GM Ross Atkins explains, while also noting that such a player could supplement the outfield mix as well. As Ben Nicholson-Smith further explores, finding that sort of player could well come at a cost. Several rival general managers suggested that they won’t easily part with assets that could meet Toronto’s specifications. As Nicholson-Smith tweets, pitching depth remains on the team’s wish list, too, though it may not be as critical as adding the above-described player and filling at least one outfield vacancy.
- Yankees GM Brian Cashman discussed his approach to the offseason with reporters including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch (Twitter links). “We have a lot of good players signed,” he said, “so we’re not in a situation where we have to be pressured into moving fast on anything.” Indeed, with quality internal options at most every spot on the roster, New York can seemingly stand to be opportunistic, particularly given that the team is set to dispense its open payroll space judiciously. Cashman also noted that he sees Aaron Hicks as an everyday player. That stance, along with the payroll considerations, seemingly makes it all the more likely that the Yanks will see if they can find a taker for Jacoby Ellsbury and some of his remaining salary obligations.
- The Orioles, of course, face a variety of needs that will be tough to fill with somewhat limited payroll availability. Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun provides a look at some veteran international targets that could be on the O’s radar. Signing foreign players to smaller, MLB deals has certainly been a notable Baltimore strategy in the past, and Meoli says the organization is “looking strongly” at doing so yet again.
Yankees To Retain Larry Rothschild As Pitching Coach
The Yankees are set to retain pitching coach Larry Rothschild, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. He has held the position since 2011.
New York’s field staff was thrown into flux when the team decided at the end of the year to move on from manager Joe Girardi. The process of finding his replacement is still in a fairly early stage, it seems, but that didn’t stop the organization from beginning to fill out his staff.
According to Sherman, the Yankees will also consider retaining other prior coaches. In particular, bench coach Rob Thomson is obviously a candidate to stay with the organization in some capacity, given that he has interviewed for the managerial post.
Crasnick’s Latest: Stanton, Ohtani, JDM, Darvish, Royals, McCutchen
In this year’s edition of his annual Hot Stove survey (an always-excellent read), ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick surveyed 40 front office execs and scouts from around the league on nine offseason issues as this week’s GM Meetings kick off. Among the topics discussed, at length, are the possibility of a Giancarlo Stanton trade (and his likeliest destination), where Japanese star Shohei Ohtani will land, how much J.D. Martinez can command in free agency, and whether Yu Darvish‘s poor World Series showing hampered his free-agent stock. Crasnick also polled the 40 baseball ops/scouting minds on multiple groups of free agents and trade candidates, asking which will provide the most value and which are likeliest to be dealt.
If you follow the offseason even loosely, you’ll want to be sure to read through the entire column, which is packed with quotes and insight from general managers, scouts and other front-office executives on the players in question and their potential landing spots. Some abbreviated highlights…
- Three quarters of the respondents indicated that they expect Stanton to be traded this offseason, with nearly a third listing the Cardinals as the likeliest landing spot. The Giants were the second-most popular spot, though one scout tells Crasnick he has a difficult time envisioning that match, calling the Giants a “bottom-five farm system.” One respondent who felt Stanton would stay in Miami suggests to Crasnick that the Marlins may be underestimating just how much of the contract they’ll need to pay down.
- The Yankees and Dodgers split the vote on the surveyed group’s likeliest destinations for Ohtani, with the Rangers not far behind. Several other clubs received a few votes, and four of the 40 respondents suggested that they believed Ohtani would remain with the Nippon Ham Fighters in 2018. There’s still some work to be done with the league, the players’ union and Nippon Professional Baseball before the posting process can begin in earnest. The agreement between MLB and NPB on the current iteration of the posting system expired this offseason.
- The Red Sox were the overwhelming favorite when it came to the question of Martinez’s next team, though expectations for his contract varied in size. One GM pegged Martinez at around six years and $140MM, Crasnick notes. Some execs felt he’d fall closer to Justin Upton’s $106MM guarantee.
- Only three of the 40 respondents thought that Darvish’s pair of World Series meltdowns would have a substantial impact on his offseason earning capacity. Crasnick’s piece has plenty of insightful quotes on Darvish — more than any other player — from the scouts that were polled. An AL scout tells Crasnick that 15 years ago, the World Series might’ve hurt Darvish, but in a largely sabermetric environment, his late struggles are a “void blip in the radar.”
- Crasnick also asked respondents which of the Royals‘ big three free agents (Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain) would provide the best value on his next deal, which of Carlos Gomez or Carlos Gonzalez had a better chance of reestablishing himself as a star, and which major 2018-19 free agent among Andrew McCutchen, Josh Donaldson and Manny Machado is likeliest to be traded this winter. I found it somewhat of a surprise to see Hosmer as the decisive favorite in that Royals question, though many scouts praised his glovework despite poor reviews from defensive metrics. McCutchen, less surprisingly, was deemed likeliest of his trio to go, while Gonzalez topped Gomez handily in their own respective face-off.
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/12/17
Here are the latest minor moves from around the game, all from Baseball America’s Matt Eddy unless otherwise credited…
- Leonys Martin is now a free agent, as he elected to hit the open market after being outrighted off the Cubs‘ roster last week. The veteran outfielder is looking to rebound from a rough 2017 that saw him post just a .513 OPS over 138 PA with the Cubs and Mariners, though Martin was still an above-average defender in the outfield.
- The Royals re-signed right-hander Seth Maness to a new minor league deal. Maness elected to become a free agent last month after K.C. outrighted him off its 40-man roster. A workhorse out of the Cardinals’ bullpen in his first three seasons, Maness has been limited to just 41 1/3 IP over the last two seasons thanks to a torn UCL, though he opted for an innovative “primary repair” procedure that allowed him a much quicker return to action than the usual 12-15 month timeline for Tommy John surgery.
- Catcher Tim Federowicz chose to become a free agent after being outrighted off the Giants‘ 40-man roster. Federowicz hasn’t hit much (a .558 OPS) over 318 career MLB plate appearances, though he has a very impressive .304/.374/.503 slash line over 1654 PA at the Triple-A level.
- The Braves released right-hander Armando Rivero. Atlanta chose Rivero in last year’s Rule 5 Draft but Rivero missed the entire season due to shoulder problems. The Braves outrighted Rivero off their 40-man roster last month, so the Cubs officially declined the opportunity to take the righty back. Rivero has a 2.70 ERA, 12.4 K/9 and 2.83 K/BB rate over 220 career innings in the minors, all as a reliever in Chicago’s system.
- Catcher Erik Kratz elected to become a free agent rather than accept an outright assignment to Triple-A, the Yankees announced earlier this week (via Twitter). Kratz spent much of 2017 at Cleveland’s Triple-A affiliate before being acquired by New York on August 31 to add some catching depth to the expanded September rosters. Kratz only appeared in four games as a Yankee, but it officially made him a veteran of six different teams over parts of eight MLB seasons. The 37-year-old has a .203/.250/.366 slash line over 649 career plate appearances in the bigs.
Latest On The Braves’ Front Office Search
10:14pm: The Braves are moving on from Moore, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reports, as “hope evaporated this weekend” that Moore would be made available by the Royals. In regards to Hart’s future, Bowman notes that since both Anthopoulos and Hendry are experienced general managers, either could take over the Braves’ baseball ops department should Hart no longer continue with the organization. “The Braves likely will make a decision as soon as possible” about their new GM, and Anthopoulos looks like the favorite.
7:39pm: Dayton Moore is still the Braves’ top choice to become the club’s new general manager, though if Atlanta isn’t able to get Moore away from the Royals, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that former Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos is “the preferred Plan B” option. Three sources paint Anthopoulos as the front-runner for the job, given that there still seems to be little traction to the idea of Moore leaving Kansas City for Atlanta.
The situation is far from being finalized, however, due to the Braves holding out hope that Moore could still become available, Major League Baseball’s ongoing investigation into signing violations under former Braves GM John Coppolella, and the status of Braves president of baseball operations John Hart. Sherman reports that Hart prefers Anthopoulos for the GM job, while club vice chairman John Schuerholz is thought to prefer former Cubs GM Jim Hendry. Hart’s own contract with the Braves expired after the 2017 season, and it isn’t yet clear if he will remain atop Atlanta’s baseball ops pyramid or if the team could desire a clean slate with a new name in charge of the front office. (In regards to Moore, he would reportedly want full control over the Braves’ operations if he were to join the organization.)
Anthopoulos, 40, worked as Toronto’s GM for six seasons, building the nucleus that led the Jays to consecutive runs to the ALCS in 2015-16. He somewhat surprisingly left the job after his contract was up after the 2015 season, however, the presence of new Jays president Mark Shapiro meant that Anthopoulos would’ve essentially been demoted to second-in-command on the team’s depth chart of baseball decision-makers.
Anthopoulos has worked as the Dodgers’ VP of baseball operations since January 2016, and turned down offers from the Twins and Diamondbacks last year when the two clubs were in the midst of their own GM searches. Family concerns were reportedly behind Anthopoulos’ decision to bow out of those searches, as he didn’t want to uproot his young children from the west coast so quickly. As Sherman notes, however, the Braves’ job “is viewed as attractive” around baseball due to the team’s deep well of prospects, even despite the likelihood that MLB will level some type of punishment against the franchise.
Yankees Notes: Rule 5 Draft, Cashman, Sabathia, Manager
Given the Yankees’ recent history of making trades during or just after the GM Meetings, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wouldn’t be surprised to see the club swing a deal in the coming week. Such a trade could involve young players that the Yankees can’t find 40-man roster space for in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, Sherman notes, as teams have until 8pm on November 20 to finalize their 40-man rosters for this year’s Rule 5 selections (which take place after the Winter Meetings in December). Names such as Garrett Cooper, Bryan Mitchell, Luis Cessa, or Tyler Austin could potentially be dealt instead of kept on the 40-man — the latter two names are included by Sherman along with Starlin Castro in a speculative trade with the Giants for Joe Panik. That proposed deal is one of three speculative trades floated by Sherman “as an exercise to understand needs, goals and possibilities as much as anything else,” with the other two trades involving the Mets and Indians, and a three-team blockbuster between the Giants, Marlins, and Cubs.
Some more news from the Bronx…
- GM Brian Cashman told MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand and other reporters (all links to Feinsand’s Twitter account) that he has yet to speak to C.C. Sabathia or his representatives this offseason, though the general manager said he is likely to see Sabathia’s agent at the GM Meetings this week. Sabathia has already expressed an interest in returning to the Yankees in free agency, and given the veteran’s solid numbers in 2017, he’d give the club an experienced and productive arm at the back of the rotation, if the Yankees weren’t sold on Cessa or Mitchell as the fifth starter. Still, if New York makes a play for Shohei Ohtani as rumored, there might not be room for Sabathia in a rotation that also includes Masahiro Tanaka, Luis Severino, Sonny Gray, and Jordan Montgomery.
- The Yankees’ managerial search will be delayed until Thursday, while Cashman is at the GM Meetings. It isn’t known which candidate will be interviewed on Thursday. Cashman said his club is still “early” in the search process, noting that “I know we’re on the clock, but we have to go through the steps regardless….I’d like something to be in place, but we have a vacancy and we have to take our time to fill that void.”