Steinbrenner: Current Payroll “Not Sustainable”
With a 35-17 record that leads AL clubs and trails only the Phillies in the NL, the Yankees have been among the very best teams in baseball to start the 2024 campaign. That being said, all that winning has come at a price: RosterResource pegs the club’s payroll at a whopping $302MM this season, trailing only the Mets and Dodgers for the third-highest in the league while surpassing the fourth-place Phillies by nearly $60MM. It appears that club chairman Hal Steinbrenner doesn’t plan to keep payroll at those top-of-the-line levels, however, as he told reporters (including Dan Martin of the New York Post) yesterday that payroll will be coming down in the future.
“I’m gonna be honest, payrolls at the levels we’re at right now are simply not sustainable for us financially,” Steinbrenner said, as relayed by Martin.
He went on to point to the luxury tax as a limiting factor on the club’s spending. New York’s payroll is just over $312MM for luxury tax purposes this season. As a club that has gone over the lowest threshold more than two seasons in a row, the Yankees are subject to a tax that escalates from 50% to 110% of the overage above the league’s base threshold of $237MM. That figures to put them on the hook for more than $58MM in luxury tax obligations this offseason, a figure that could increase further depending on midseason additions and contract incentives. That’s a hefty bill, particularly considering the fact that (as noted by Cot’s Baseball Contracts) the club’s 2024 payroll breaks the franchise record payroll of roughly $278MM that was set just last season. Prior to the last two seasons, the club’s payroll generally set in the $200MM and $250MM range.
Scaling back payroll could be feasible for the for the Yankees somewhat naturally, as the club has just under $182MM in guaranteed money on the books for next year per RosterResource. That figure does not factor in arbitration-level contracts for players such as Nestor Cortes, Jose Trevino, and Clarke Schmidt, nor does it include the possibility of the club picking up options on the services of veterans like Anthony Rizzo and Luke Weaver. Even considering that, however, it’s reasonable to expect the Yankees to have some room to cut down payroll and still add in free agency this winter.
Of course, the elephant in the room regarding the coming free agent class is superstar youngster Juan Soto, who is slated to hit free agency this fall ahead of his age-26 season. Acquired from the Padres in a blockbuster swap back in December, Soto has been everything the Yankees could have hoped for in his first 51 games with the club, slashing an incredible .313/.409/.569 with a 15.1% strikeout rate, a 14.2% walk rate, and 13 homers in 232 trips to the plate. Given how vital a one-two punch of Soto and Aaron Judge has been to the club’s success this winter, it’s hard to imagine the Yankees not aggressively pursuing a long-term deal with their newly-acquired star.
Steinbrenner himself indicated recently that he hopes to see Soto remain with the club “for the rest of his career,” suggesting that the Yankees at least plan to make an effort to retain him beyond this season. With Soto widely expected to land a contract that rivals the $460MM net present value of the Shohei Ohtani deal from this past offseason, it would seemingly be difficult to significantly lower the club’s payroll while retaining Soto via what could be a massive raise over his current $31MM salary.
That’s not to say it can’t be done, of course. Steinbrenner’s comments also made note of the club’s ability to retain Soto, as he noted that the club has a “considerable amount” of money coming off the books this winter in comparison to last year. Gleyber Torres and Alex Verdugo are both pending free agents who have combined to make more than $20MM this season, and it’s feasible to imagine the Yankees allowing the pair to walk in free agency before offering their roles to younger players such as Oswald Peraza and Jasson Dominguez.
Yankees Outright Colby White
The Yankees announced that right-hander Colby White has been sent outright to Double-A Somerset. That indicates the righty cleared waivers after being designated for assignment earlier this week.
White, 25, was claimed off waivers from the Rays two weeks ago. By keeping him on their roster for that short amount of time and then passing him through waivers, the Yankees will get to keep him as non-roster depth. This is his first career outright and he has less than three years of service time, meaning he doesn’t have the right to elect free agency.
The righty was a sixth-round pick of the Rays in 2019 but hasn’t been able to pitch much in the early parts of his professional career. After a brief stint in Low-A in 2019, the minor leagues were cancelled by the pandemic in 2020. The year after, White went through four levels, finishing at Triple-A. He had a 1.44 earned run average in 62 1/3 innings, striking out a massive 45% of batters faced while giving out walks just 6.5% of the time.
Tommy John surgery early in 2022 wiped out that entire season, but the Rays nonetheless added him to their roster at the end of that year. After the numbers he put up in 2021, they understandably feared that he might get poached in the Rule 5 draft.
He returned to the mound last year but control, or the lack thereof, has become a mounting concern. He tossed 22 innings last year with a 1.64 ERA, striking out 27.6% of batters faced but also giving out walks 19.5% of the time. The free passes have finally caught up to him here in 2024, as he has walked a massive 23.1% of batters faced. That’s led to 17 earned runs allowed in 8 1/3 innings for an ERA of 18.36.
Now White will try to get over those control problems and get back on track. If he can get anywhere close to the kind of form he showed prior to his surgery, he could be a useful piece down the road for the Yanks.
MLBTR Podcast: The Likelihood Of A Juan Soto Extension, What’s In Store For Pete Alonso, And Corbin Carroll’s Struggles
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- Yankees‘ chairman Hal Steinbrenner expressing openness to a Juan Soto extension (1:05)
- The Mets, Pete Alonso, extension talks and trade possibilities (9:00)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- What do you think about a trade between the Tigers, who are desperate for hitting, and the Orioles, whose bullpen hasn’t been great? Detroit has a surplus of good relief pitchers, could they be trade partners? (21:05)
- If Mason Miller were to be traded from the Athletics to another American League team and go on to win A.L. Rookie of the Year, would that team get an incentive draft pick? (26:30)
- Say Shota Imanaga and Yoshinobu Yamamoto finish at the top of Rookie of the Year voting in the National League, will the Cubs and Dodgers get the draft compensation for having them in the majors the whole season? Considering they both signed MLB contracts, that seems antithetical to the new draft compensation for well performing rookies rule. (28:05)
- Corbin Carroll? That’s pretty much the question: Corbin Carroll? Is there hope this season? How long can the Diamondbacks keep running him out there with no improvement in sight? I love the guy, I have as a keeper, and he was a big part of my plans for this season. Needless to say, it’s not going so well. (31:00)
Check out our past episodes!
- Paul Skenes, The Prospect Hype Machine, Willson Contreras And Rising Catcher’s Interference Rates – listen here
- Luis Arráez To San Diego, Other Marlins Trade Candidates And Discussing A Potential Automated Strike Zone – listen here
- Mailbag: José Abreu Demoted, The Positional Surplus Myth, Erick Fedde’s Trade Value And More – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
The New And Improved Clarke Schmidt
A lot has gone right for the Yankees in 2024. Even without the services of reigning Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole through the season’s 30% mark, they find themselves atop the American League East by a measure of two games over the second-place Orioles. The Rays, eight games back, are a distant third. Boston and Toronto follow with deficits of 8.5 games and 10.5 games, respectively.
Beyond Cole’s absence, the Yanks dealt with a prolonged slump for 2022 MVP Aaron Judge and have yet to get so much as a single at-bat from DJ LeMahieu due to a fractured foot suffered in spring training. Setup man Jonathan Loaisiga pitched only four innings before requiring internal brace surgery. On the flip side, Juan Soto has lived up to the billing as a middle-of-the-order force. Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes both look like the pitchers the Yankees expected them to be in 2023. Marcus Stroman has handled himself well, albeit with an uncharacteristic uptick in walks.
For all the big names turning in marquee and/or rebound performances, the Yankees have also seen substantial improvement from a key in-house arm. Righty Clarke Schmidt was a top prospect long before he made his MLB debut, and he made 29 serviceable starts last season, so it’s not as though he wasn’t expected to contribute at all this year. But heading into the season, Schmidt looked like a clear back-of-the-rotation arm.
About one-third of the way through the 2024 season, that’s no longer the case. Schmidt still looks the part of a big league starter, but he’s taken considerable steps forward and now looks like far more than a garden variety innings eater. Schmidt has upped his velocity by a bit more than a mile per hour on both his cutter (up from 91.5 mph to 92.6 mph) and sinker (93.6 mph in 2023, 94.7 mph in 2024). Schmidt is also taking a page from the Corbin Burnes playbook, throwing more cutters than at any point in his career, and doing so at the expense of his sweeper and sinker. It’s not an overwhelming change in pitch selection, but Schmidt has gone from throwing that cutter around 28% of the time to 35.5% of the time in 2024.
The biggest change for Schmidt, however, isn’t necessarily one of pitch usage but rather of pitch effectiveness. Opponents in 2023 teed off on his sweeper, blasting the pitch at a .276/.331/.559 pace when putting it into play. Opponents basically became 2023-24 Gunnar Henderson when putting Schmidt’s sweeper into play. That’s … not good. (Well, not good for Schmidt.)
In 2024, Schmidt has actually taken a bit of life off that breaking ball. Coupled with the uptick in cutter/sinker velocity, the gap between those harder pitches and his primary breaking ball has widened by around two miles per hour. Last year saw a 5.3 mph gap between his cutter and sweeper, and a 7.4 mph gap between the sinker and sweeper. This year, those differentials are up to respective marks of 6.9 mph and 9.0 mph. Additionally, by measure of Statcast, Schmidt’s sweeper is also generating an extra 3.3 inches of horizontal break over last year’s version of the pitch.
The tweaks are subtle but the changes in Schmidt’s results aren’t. Through his first 10 starts of the season, the right-hander touts a 2.59 ERA (3.54 FIP, 3.38 SIERA). His strikeout rate is up from 21.5% to a career-best 27.2%. His walk rate has worsened, but only slightly, and at 7.6%, it’s still a percentage point better than the league average. Schmidt is generating more swinging strikes (10.2% in 2023, 12.2% in 2024), getting more called strikes and has seen his opponents’ contact rates drop both in the zone and off the plate. A hearty 41% of batted balls against Schmidt last year traveled 95 mph or more, but this year that rate is down to 34.8%. His opponents’ average exit velocity is down roughly one mile per hour. He’s allowing less contact, and the balls that are put into play against him are generally more timid in nature.
Schmidt’s step forward is well-timed for the Yankees on multiple fronts. Not only does it dovetail with a time when rotation depth is paramount for the Yankees as they await Cole’s return, it also comes when Schmidt is still controllable for a considerable period of time. Schmidt is 28 and already into arbitration, earning $2.184MM this season, but he’s a Super Two player who was only first-time eligible this past offseason. The Yankees control him for three more seasons.
While Schmidt’s arb price will rise considerably if he can sustain even 80% of the gains he’s made this season, he’ll still be priced well below market levels at a time when the Yankees are in the final years of some relatively heavy veteran contracts. Stroman ($18.5MM next season, plus an $18MM vesting option for 2026), Anthony Rizzo ($17MM club option), LeMahieu ($15MM in 2025 and 2026), will all still be on the books in the short-term, when Schmidt’s price tag is particularly affordable. Given the Yankees’ long-term commitments to Cole, Judge, Rodon and Giancarlo Stanton — plus their obvious hope of re-signing Soto — having low-cost contributors like Schmidt play key roles is of even greater importance.
Speaking of Soto, his very presence on the roster made it crucial that Schmidt and other in-house arms step up in 2024. The Yankees parted with notable pitching depth to acquire Soto from San Diego, sending Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez and top prospect Drew Thorpe to the Padres in that package. King would’ve been locked into a rotation spot in the Bronx, and each of Brito, Vasquez and Thorpe were depth options for this year’s rotation. You could argue it’s a quantity-over-quality group, but the Soto trade left the Yankees with much less depth to rely on in the event of injuries. A step back from Schmidt would’ve been magnified even further with Cole on the shelf.
Instead, Schmidt has taken significant steps forward — thanks to changes that make much of his improvement feel sustainable. He’s not likely to keep running a sub-3.00 ERA, but Schmidt looks far more like a mid-3.00s type of pitcher than the 2023 version of himself that appeared ticketed for a mid-4.00s mark.
Royals Designate Matt Sauer For Assignment
The Royals have designated right-hander Matt Sauer for assignment and selected the contract of left-handed reliever Sam Long from Triple-A Omaha, per a team announcement. Sauer was selected out of the Yankees organization in December’s Rule 5 Draft. The Royals will have a week to trade him or place him on waivers, and if he goes unclaimed he must be offered back to the Yankees for $50K. If he lands with a new team, his Rule 5 restrictions will roll over to that new club.
A second-round pick by the Yankees back in 2017, the now-25-year-old Sauer made his big league debut when he first took the mound for Kansas City this season. He held opponents to just two runs through his first 9 1/3 MLB innings but did so with an ugly ratio of just four strikeouts to eight walks. The lack of command and a put-away pitch proved problematic in the weeks since. Dating back to April 29, Sauer has been torched for a dozen runs in seven innings.
Overall, Sauer pitched 16 1/3 innings for the Royals and yielded a 7.71 ERA. He fanned only 10.7% of his opponents against an ugly 13.1% walk rate in that time. Were the Royals at or near the bottom of the division, perhaps they’d have been more patient, but at 29-19 on the year and standing in second place, Kansas City clearly felt that they couldn’t continue the experiment if it meant getting such minimal production out of a bullpen spot.
Long, 28, has spent the past three seasons in the majors with the Giants (2021-22) and A’s (2023). He’ s pitched 128 innings for the two Bay Area clubs, logging a 4.92 ERA with an 18.5% strikeout rate, 9% walk rate and 40.5% grounder rate. The southpaw averages 93.8 mph on his heater and couples that four-seamer with a curveball as his primary breaking pitch. Long used a changeup quite a bit during his Giants days but swapped that out for a slider with Oakland last season.
Though he doesn’t have a great track record in the majors, Long has been nails with the Royals’ Omaha affiliate this season. In 20 2/3 innings, he’s pitched to a tiny 1.31 ERA with an impressive 27.4% strikeout rate against a 6% walk rate. He hasn’t given up run since April 25, rattling off 8 1/3 shutout innings with nine punchouts and just one walk during that hot streak.
Long opened the season on a similarly impressive run of nine straight scoreless frames with a 12-to-3 K/BB ratio. Add in 8 2/3 innings of one-run ball with a 48.4% strikeout rate and 3.2% walk rate in spring training (15-to-1 K/BB), and it’s become increasingly difficult for the Royals to overlook his contributions to date.
Yankees Designate Colby White For Assignment
The Yankees announced Monday that they’ve designated right-hander Colby White for assignment. His spot on the roster will go to lefty Clayton Andrews, whose contract has been selected from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. The Yankees placed righty Ian Hamilton on the Covid-related injured list in a corresponding move.
White, 25, was claimed off waivers out of the Rays organization back on May 9. He appeared in a pair of games for the Yankees’ Double-A affiliate but only recorded two outs. He faced six hitters, surrendered a pair of hits (including a homer) and a pair of walks with one strikeout. He yielded two earned runs in that very brief tenure in the organization.
The Rays selected White with their sixth-round pick back in 2019 and watched him develop into one of the system’s more promising arms. His 2021 campaign featured 62 1/3 innings of utter dominance across four levels; White posted a 1.44 ERA and struck out a ridiculous 45% of his opponents against a sharp 6.4% walk rate. Tommy John surgery wiped out his entire 2022 season and much of his 2023 campaign, however. He returned with 22 innings of 1.64 ERA ball last season in the minors but also a bloated 19.5% walk rate that pointed to surefire regression. He’s walked 23.1% of his opponents between the Rays and Yankees organization this season.
The 27-year-old Andrews came to the Yankees in a minor February trade with the Brewers. He was designated for assignment earlier this season and cleared outright waivers but remained in the organization. He’ll now be called up for what would be his team debut if he gets into a game.
A former 17th-round pick by Milwaukee, Andrews made his MLB debut with the Brew Crew last year, appearing in four games but yielding 10 runs in just 3 1/3 innings of work. Rough as that first look was, the southpaw also turned in a 2.53 ERA in 57 Triple-A frames, punching out 31.1% of his opponents. Command is an issue, evidenced by last year’s 13% walk rate, but Andrews has shown the ability to miss bats at a high level.
In 15 innings with Scranton so far this season, Andrews has been tagged for 11 runs — a 6.60 ERA. A massive 18.5% walk rate has played a role in those struggles, but he’s still whiffed 27.7% of the batters he’s faced and kept the ball on the ground at a big 54.5% clip.
Hamilton will hopefully only face a short-term absence. The 28-year-old righty has emerged as a key bullpen member for Aaron Boone over the past two seasons. While his 2024 campaign hasn’t been as strong as his 2023 season, he’s still given the Yanks 22 2/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball. His 18.8% strikeout rate is down more than 10 percentage points from last year’s 29.9% mark, however, and his 8.9% walk rate is ever so slightly higher than the 8.5% league average. Hamilton still boasts a huge 14.4% swinging-strike rate and similarly impressive 35.7% opponents’ chase rate on pitches off the plate, both of which could portend a boost in strikeouts once he’s able to return to the active roster.
AL East Notes: Houck, Kahnle, Santander
The Red Sox locked up Brayan Bello and Ceddanne Rafaela to contract extensions this past spring, but no deal developed between the team and Tanner Houck, even though the two sides had some negotiations. Houck confirmed to MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo that some “discussions” took place, “but we’re at where we are now. I put that behind me whenever we shook hands and said, ‘Let’s go out and win as many games as we can.’ ” There’s nothing preventing Houck and the Sox from restarting talks, though it would seem that Houck (like most players) prefers to save contractual matters for the offseason to cut down on potential distractions.
The right-hander also doesn’t even reach arbitration eligibility until this coming winter, so since he is already under team control through 2027, Boston might not feel too much urgency to lock Houck up on an extension. Of course, given how Houck has pitched this season, the Sox might’ve missed their window for landing Houck at a relative bargain price. Houck has broken out with a 2.17 ERA over 58 innings and nine starts, and his secondary metrics are highlighted by impressive grounder (55.2%), walk (4.7%) and barrel (3.7%) rates. Even in a season marked by impressive pitching around baseball, Houck has stood out, as his 1.9 fWAR is behind only Tarik Skubal as the highest in the league.
More from the AL East…
- Tommy Kahnle is on pace to be activated from the 15-day injured list prior to the Yankees‘ game on Wednesday, manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including Greg Joyce of the New York Post). Kahnle threw ten pitches in a scoreless inning for Double-A Somerset today, which marks his fifth and likely final rehab outing. The reliever hasn’t pitched in a big league game since September 20, as a bout of shoulder inflammation prematurely ended his 2023 campaign, and then more inflammation this spring led to a season-opening stint on the 15-day IL. Getting Kahnle back in good health will add another yet quality arm to a New York relief corps that led the majors in bullpen ERA entering today’s action.
- Anthony Santander has been battling a bruised left knee since Wednesday, when he collided with the outfield wall in pursuit of a Bo Bichette fly ball. After the Orioles had an off-day Thursday, Santander felt well enough to serve as the DH in Baltimore’s last two games, but didn’t play at all in today’s 6-3 win over the Mariners. Santander told MLB.com and other media that he is hoping one more day of rest will help calm the still-lingering soreness in his knee, and he described his knee as feeling “about 75 percent” when running, so some more DH duty might be in order. Santander is hitting .210/.290/.427 with seven homers over 176 plate appearances this season, still good for a respectable 106 wRC+ but also a comparative weak link in the powerful Orioles lineup.
- For most on the Red Sox, Orioles, and Blue Jays, check out another set of AL East Notes published earlier today on MLBTR.
Hal Steinbrenner Comments On Possible Juan Soto Extension
Yankees chairman Hal Steinbrenner appeared on the Yankees News & Views podcast today and host Jack Curry of the YES Network asked him about the possibility of extending superstar outfielder Juan Soto. The YES Network shared a video clip on X.
“I think we’d like to see him here for the rest of his career,” Steinbrenner said. “I don’t think there’s any doubt of that.” He goes on to say that Scott Boras, Soto’s agent, doesn’t normally do extensions midseason. Steinbrenner says he generally prefers to avoid talks during the season as well so that they don’t become a distraction, but that Soto is a special case.
That’s due to Soto’s obvious talents but also since he’s only been a Yankee for a few months, having been acquired from the Padres in December with just one season left to go before he’s slated to reach free agency. Steinbrenner said he wanted to give Soto some time to get to know the organization before getting into talks about long-term plans. “I wouldn’t be shocked if there was a conversation or two had, possibly during the course of the season.”
In the latter half of the clip shared above, Curry relays that he contacted Boras about what Steinbrenner said. Boras said he is always willing to talk to Steinbrenner but that Soto is focused on winning.
Soto himself was asked about the comments after this afternoon’s game and echoed what Boras said, with the YES Network sharing a clip on X of those as well. “My door is always open,” Soto said. “Whenever he wants to start talking with Scott and all his people, they’re always open. They’re always open to hear whatever he has. And for me, I just focus on the game right now.”
The topic of Soto’s future free agency, or an extension to prevent that free agency from happening, has been a topic of conversation for quite a long time. That’s on account of how he debuted at such an unusually young age and also due to him finding immediate success that he has maintained or improved. Soto debuted with the Nationals in 2018 when he was only 19 years old. He hit 22 home runs in 116 games while drawing walks in 16% his plate appearances. His .292/.406/.517 batting line translated to a 146 wRC+.
He’s never provided much in terms of speed or defense, but his combination of power and plate discipline is exceptional and has remained quite consistent. He currently has 169 home runs in his career and an 18.7% walk rate, while striking out just 16.9% of the time. He has slashed .286/.420/.525 overall and has a 155 wRC+, which includes a .310/.408/.530 line and 170 wRC+ as a Yankee this year.
Those skills and his age put him on course for a massive contract. Most free agents reach free agency for the first time in the vicinity of their 30th birthday but Soto is still just 25. He’ll turn 26 on October 25, just before he’s slated to hit the open market.
The fact that Steinbrenner is interested in an extension is somewhat notable since the club doesn’t do them very often. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that they have done just three in the past decade, which were for Luis Severino, Aaron Hicks and Aroldis Chapman. Those deals didn’t go especially well for the most part and the club may not be thrilled at doing more extensions in general, but Soto is clearly in a different stratosphere than those players. That Steinbrenner is willing to make an exception here is unsurprising, but actually getting it done won’t be cheap.
Back in 2022, the Nationals reportedly offered Soto $440MM over 15 years. When he rejected that overture, they decided to trade him instead, which is how he came to be a Padre. While that may be a massive sum to leave on the table, he’s already earned himself a decent chunk of that. Since turning down that deal, he made $23MM last year and is making $31MM this year, his final two arbitration seasons. That means any contract higher than $386MM will prove that he made a wise financial decision in turning it down.
Last month, Boras revealed that the late Peter Seidler tried to get a deal done to keep Soto in San Diego. However, Seidler’s deteriorating health got in the way of the talks and he passed away in November. The next month, Soto was traded to the Yankees as the Padres’ financial situation forced them to make budget cuts.
Keeping Soto away from the open market is obviously going to be a challenge. Yankees’ general manager Brian Cashman admitted as much in February. “The odds are this is a one-year situation,” he said. “I don’t see too many things stopping him from reaching free agency.”
There has been all kinds of speculation about what kind of number it would take to get Soto’s signature on a contract. The round number of $500MM is often thrown around as a speculative ballpark figure, but that’s really just a guess.
Since Soto is now just a few months away from the open market, there’s little incentive for him to accept anything except free agency prices. The largest contract in MLB history is Shohei Ohtani‘s recent ten-year, $700MM pact with the Dodgers. The heavy deferrals on the deal make the net present value closer to the $435-465MM range, though that adjusted figure still makes it the largest ever, both in terms of total guarantee and average annual value.
Soto obviously doesn’t have the two-way abilities of Ohtani nor the same international marketing power, but Ohtani is now 29 and about to turn 30, meaning Soto will be marketing three to four extra prime years compared to Shohei. That youth is clearly valuable to teams, as was recently seen with the Yoshinobu Yamamoto free agency. Going into his age-25 season, he drew widespread interest despite having no major league experience. He eventually shattered expectations when he signed for $325MM over 12 years, plus a posting fee of over $50MM.
The Yankees have long been one of the biggest spenders in baseball, but they have a decent amount of money on the books already. Between Aaron Judge, Gerrit Cole, Giancarlo Stanton and Carlos Rodón, they have four players making $25MM or more through 2027 or longer. The Marlins are paying down a bit of Stanton’s deal but the Yankees already have almost $150MM committed to books three years down the line, per Roster Resource.
For a generational talent like Soto, they likely wouldn’t care much about adding another huge contract to the pile. Still, Boras might want to wait a few more months to see what teams like the Mets, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Phillies or others have to offer. Getting them to the table would increase the chances of a bidding war driving up prices and the Yanks might have to put down a huge number to stop that from happening.
Jasson Dominguez Begins Rehab Assignment
Yankees outfielder Jasson Dominguez began a minor league rehab assignment Tuesday, per a team announcement. That effectively presses the start button on a 20-day rehab window before he must either be optioned to Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre or reinstated to the MLB roster. He’s starting out in Class-A Tampa, though he’ll very likely move up the ladder over the next couple weeks.
Dominguez underwent Tommy John surgery last summer, so it’s fairly natural that Yankees skipper Aaron Boone indicated over the weekend that the 21-year-old will be limited to DH work in the early stages of rehab. This will be the first game action for Dominguez since early September, when he burst onto the big league scene with a promising .258/.303/.677 batting line in 33 plate appearances. Dominguez homered off notable big leaguers like Justin Verlander and Cristian Javier, ultimately popping four round-trippers in his brief debut before being diagnosed with a ligament tear in his elbow.
Prior to that debut, Dominguez had split the season between Double-A and Triple-A, recording 507 plate appearances at the former level and 37 at the latter. He batted a combined .265/.377/.425 despite being just 20 years old. He was about four years younger than his average opponent in Double-A and more than six years younger than the average Triple-A player.
Had Dominguez been healthy, the Yankees’ offseason could well have looked different. They’d still quite likely have made an aggressive push to land Juan Soto from the Padres, but it’s fair to wonder whether Alex Verdugo would’ve still been a prominent trade target with both Dominguez and Aaron Judge projected to be healthy. It seems likely that would not have been the case.
Now, with Verdugo, Soto and Judge all hitting well and Giancarlo Stanton still providing thump from the DH spot (despite a .283 OBP), it’s not as clear how Dominguez might fit onto the roster. He’d certainly be expected to outproduce the surprisingly anemic .069/.270/.172 line that Trent Grisham has mustered thus far, but that’s come in a sample of only 38 plate appearances. There’s likely some merit to the idea that a longtime starter like Grisham has struggled mightily with the move to such a limited role, but the minimal playing time he’s received is the primary reason why Dominguez likely wouldn’t be considered for such a role.
Even if the Yankees felt Dominguez could outperform that pace (which they surely do), putting a touted 21-year-old in a position to get seven or eight plate appearances per week would be a poor move for his development. Whenever Dominguez is deemed healthy enough to be reinstated from the injured list, the Yankees presumably want him to be ticketed for regular at-bats. The current construction of the big league roster doesn’t look ideal for that setup, though all it would take would be one injury to Verdugo, Judge, Soto or Stanton to open up some more substantial playing time.
Of the current outfielders, only Verdugo seems even remotely plausible as a trade candidate, but he’s produced a respectable .243/.329/.397 batting line (111 wRC+) while drawing more walks (11.4%) than strikeouts (10.8%). There’d be ample risk (to put it mildly) in moving a steady veteran enjoying that type of performance to free up playing time for a 21-year-old with eight games of big league experience, regardless of his prospect status. There’s been some speculation about a potential Verdugo trade among fans and pundits alike, but such a scenario seems decidedly unlikely.
Barring an injury in the big league outfield, an eventual minor league assignment for Dominguez feels almost inevitable. He’s still only played in 17 total games above the Double-A level. But with Verdugo and Soto both set to become free agents at season’s end and Grisham playing his way into a non-tender candidate, there’s still a clear path to a prominent role for Dominguez in the long-term — it just might not happen this season.
DJ LeMahieu will follow Dominguez in beginning a minor league rehab stint later this week, tweets Greg Joyce of the New York Post. It’s the second time he’ll start a rehab assignment as he returns from a season-opening injured list stay. LeMahieu joined Double-A Somerset on April 23 but was removed in the first inning after experiencing renewed soreness in his right foot. The veteran infielder was diagnosed with a non-displaced fracture in his foot at the end of Spring Training.
Oswaldo Cabrera and Jon Berti have split the third base work in LeMahieu’s absence. Cabrera started the season well before a recent slump dropped his batting line to .252/.295/.390 in 132 plate appearances. The speedster Berti is hitting .263 without an extra-base hit and only two walks in 41 trips.
Gleyber Torres’ Early-Season Power Drought
The 2024 season is a pivotal one for Gleyber Torres. The longtime Yankee second baseman will almost certainly head to free agency in November. Torres has publicly angled for an extension on multiple occasions in recent years, but there hasn’t been any indication the team wanted to strike early to keep him beyond this season.
Torres projects as one of the more interesting mid-level hitters in next winter’s class. He isn’t doing himself any favors with his early-season performance, though. Torres is out to a .208/.289/.273 start through 174 plate appearances. He didn’t hit his first home run of the season until May 2 and hasn’t collected multiple hits in a game since April 29. His overall production has hovered around replacement level.
It’s a surprisingly poor start for a player who has emerged as one of New York’s more consistent offensive contributors. Torres was a decidedly above-average hitter, by measure of wRC+, in four of his first six MLB seasons. Last year was among the best of his career. He connected on 25 homers with a .273/.347/.453 slash over a personal-high 672 trips to the plate.
Torres didn’t have the gaudy slugging numbers he posted back in 2019, when he popped a career-best 38 longballs in the so-called “juiced ball” season. Yet he cut his strikeout rate to a personal-low 14.6% mark and posted the highest on-base percentage in any full season of his career. There’s an argument the 2023 season was Torres’ best after accounting for the significantly depressed offensive environment compared to ’19.
While there are a few months to turn things around, he’s amidst a rough opening to his walk year. Torres’ triple slash stats are all easily at personal lows. His rate of hard contact (a batted ball with an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater) has dropped 10 percentage points relative to last season. After squaring up a solid 40.3% of batted balls a year ago, he’s down to 30.4% thus far. That ranks 228th among 264 qualified hitters, per Statcast.
Torres is not only making decidedly less impactful contact, he’s making less contact of any kind. His strikeout rate has jumped to 23.6%, which would be the highest since his rookie season. He’s swinging through more pitches both within and outside the strike zone. It’s not disastrous — Torres’ strikeout and walk marks are right around league average — but it’s a major step back from where he was last season.
This isn’t quite the worst stretch of Torres’ career. He had a slightly worse month and a half coming out of the All-Star Break back in 2022. Torres rebounded with a power explosion that September that presaged his strong ’23 campaign. It’s certainly not out of the question that he puts this recent slump behind him.
League-wide power numbers tend to improve in the summer as the weather warms. That has typically been the case for Torres, who has a career .369 slugging percentage in March and April and has been north of .400 in every other month. It’s not uncommon for him to take some time to find his power, although that doesn’t typically come with the kind of swing-and-miss he has shown this year.
It’s imperative he put things together fairly quickly if he’s going to land the kind of contract his camp presumably envisioned coming into the season. Torres’ profile is driven by his offensive ability. While there’s value in being able to play up the middle, he’s a fringy defender at second base. It’s not likely that teams would consider moving him back to shortstop, where he had well below-average grades and hasn’t played regularly since 2021.
Torres was already looking to buck an unfavorable market trend towards second basemen. As shown on the MLBTR Contract Tracker, there are only a handful of recent free agent deals for second basemen that exceeded $50MM. Marcus Semien’s seven-year, $175MM pact stands as an anomaly that Torres was never going to match — and Semien had a plausible argument as a potential shortstop before the Rangers signed Corey Seager a few days later. Mike Moustakas (four years, $64MM) and DJ LeMahieu (six years, $90MM) are more realistic comparison points, though those players could also play third base.
Teams have generally been more willing to invest in second basemen via extensions (e.g. Jose Altuve, Andrés Giménez, Ketel Marte, Jake Cronenworth, Jeff McNeil) than on the open market. That doesn’t seem likely to happen with the Yankees, who could be content to turn the position to Oswald Peraza after this season.
Torres’ biggest selling point once he gets to the open market is his youth. He’ll play all of next season at 28. It’s likely his camp would try to push for a deal in the range Andrew Benintendi received at the same age (five years, $75MM). That contract has aged very poorly for the White Sox, but he’d been a similar caliber of hitter as Torres leading up to his signing. Benintendi was a Gold Glove winner who plays a less important position.
However, the market for mid-tier hitters last offseason wasn’t as robust as it had been in the previous winter (when Benintendi signed). Jeimer Candelario and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. each landed three-year guarantees in the $14-15MM annual range. As with Torres, they’d generally been good but not elite hitters who weren’t offering immense defensive value. Neither Candelario nor Gurriel was eligible for a qualifying offer. If Torres turns things around, he could receive one from the Yankees.
Torres will need to start hitting soon for that to be a factor. He has already played his way out of the leadoff spot to the bottom half of the order. It’s too early for Aaron Boone to consider pulling him from the lineup entirely, but the Yankees should be locked in a tight race with the Orioles throughout the summer. They can’t afford to live with no production from second base all season, and Peraza is on a rehab stint from a Spring Training shoulder strain. How Torres performs over the next two months will be a key factor in both New York’s chance of winning a tough division and his appeal to teams when he hits the market.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.