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MLBTR Podcast: The Cubs’ Activity, Marcus Stroman And Jordan Hicks

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Ben Cherington of the Pirates has repeatedly said that he would be active in the market for another starting pitcher and another outfielder. With Spring Training starting in about one month, has he given up on this quest? (25:35)
  • Why do general managers not come out and say reports are B.S.? Use the Jays as example. They are not interested in Blake Snell but their name gets thrown in for leverage. Should GMs step in and say this report is false? The endless number of sources is ridiculous and leads nowhere except larger pay days or trade hauls because of fake competition. (27:30)
  • I think most of the baseball world is getting really sick of the Dodgers and Yankees buying all the major names. It’s terrible for parity and makes for season after season of “wash, rinse, repeat” storylines. Is the league ever going to enact a salary cap? It’s done great things for the other three major sports leagues. What is the reason for the resistance to it? (31:40)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Yankees Designate Oscar González For Assignment

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The Yankees officially announced their signing of right-hander Marcus Stroman, with outfielder Oscar González designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

González, 26, has only been a Yankee since early December, when they claimed him off waivers from the Guardians. The outfielder burst onto the scene with Cleveland in 2022, hitting 11 home runs in 382 plate appearances. His 3.9% walk rate was quite low but he hit .296/.327/.461 overall for a wRC+ of 125. He also became a fan favorite by using the SpongeBob SquarePants theme song as his walk-up music and also hit a walk-off home run in the bottom of the 15th inning of Game 2 of the Wild Card series, which broke a scoreless tie and clinched the series for the Guardians.

Unfortunately, 2023 was a disaster for González. His offense fell off precipitously and he spent most of his time on optionable assignment in Triple-A. In his 180 major league plate appearances, his walk rate fell even lower to 2.8% while his strikeouts increased, leading to a paltry line of .214/.239/.312. His work in Triple-A led to a nicer line of .287/.323/.496, but that still translated to a subpar wRC+ of 98.

Since he’s considered a poor defender and doesn’t steal a lot of bases, González really needs to hit to provide value. There’s clearly some power there but poor plate discipline as well. He has swung at 49.1% of pitches outside the strike zone in his career, the highest rate among MLB hitters with at least 550 plate appearances over the past two seasons. In 2,734 minor league plate appearances, he has walked in just 109 of them, a 4% rate.

He is still young and has a couple of option years remaining, so a club could keep him in Triple-A as a depth piece while seeing if his approach improves. The Yanks likely had such a plan in mind when they claimed him, but they have since changed their outfield significantly by trading for Juan Soto, Trent Grisham and Alex Verdugo. Those moves have seemingly pushed González down the depth chart and off the roster.

The Yanks will now have a week to trade González or pass him through waivers. If he were to go unclaimed, he could stick with the club as non-roster depth, but some other club around the league might take a shot on him.

Blue Jays Reportedly “Monitoring” Blake Snell’s Market

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In the aftermath of the offseason’s top free agent pitcher, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, signing with the Dodgers late last month, the market for #2 pitching free agent Blake Snell has begun to pick up. The Red Sox, Phillies, Giants, and Angels have all been connected to Snell in recent weeks and the Yankees are known to have made an offer for the lefty’s services. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale provides details on that offer, suggesting that while Snell’s camp is seeking “at least $240MM” this winter, the Yankees’ offer came in “nearly $100MM” below that target.

Since those initial connections, both the Giants and Yankees have made rotation additions that might take them out of the market for Snell: The Giants picked up Robbie Ray in trade with the Mariners and signed Jordan Hicks to bolster their rotation mix, while the Yankees added Marcus Stroman to their own starting five. While it’s unclear whether or not either club’s interest in Snell persists beyond those additions, it’s at least fair to say that they’re in a less desperate position regarding starting pitcher than they were a few weeks ago. Even if those two clubs are no longer part of Snell’s market, however, Nightengale suggests that there are “several” teams that remain engaged with Snell’s camp in hopes his hefty price tag will drop as the offseason continues. In particular, he notes that the Blue Jays “have been quietly monitoring” Snell throughout his free agency.

Toronto would be something of a surprising fit for Snell. While the club was among the finalists involved in the Yamamoto sweepstakes, the club has seemed to eschew a more general foray into the pitching side of free agency this winter in favor of bolstering a lineup that lost Matt Chapman, Whit Merrifield, and Brandon Belt to free agency this winter after key bats such as George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. under-performed in 2023. By contrast, starting pitching proved to be a notable strength of the Blue Jays’ roster last season as the club was led by ace righty Kevin Gausman and saw strong rebound campaigns from both Yusei Kikuchi and Jose Berrios after difficult seasons in 2022.

With that being said, the Blue Jays made clear they had money to spend this winter with their strong bid for the services of Shohei Ohtani last month and the club’s recent additions of Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa make a strong pursuit of Cody Bellinger or Chapman, the offseason’s best remaining positional free agents, less likely than they appeared to be earlier this winter. With money available and few clear fits in free agency to spend it on, a pursuit of Snell could place Toronto’s rotation firmly among the best in the game. The reigning NL Cy Young award winner, Snell led the majors with a sterling 2.25 ERA in 180 innings of work last season and would create an enviable duo at the top of the club’s rotation alongside Gausman.

A pursuit of Snell would also provide the Jays with protection against potential injury or ineffectiveness that they lack after veteran southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu departed for free agency back in November. While the club’s rotation looks strong on paper, a regression from Kikuchi or Berrios or continued struggles from Alek Manoah after an abysmal 2023 campaign could hamper the club’s ability to emerge from a competitive AL East with a playoff spot next season. Even Chris Bassitt, despite serving as one of the most reliable mid-rotation starters in the game in recent years, threw a career-high 200 frames last year across 33 starts and is entering his age-35 season in 2024. While top prospect Rickey Tiedemann could factor into the club’s rotation mix sometime next season and provide the depth the club’s starting five currently lacks, the addition of another quality rotation piece such as Snell would take pressure off of a 21-year-old hurler with just four innings of work at the Triple-A level headed into what could be his rookie campaign.

Of course, adding a bat-first player to the club’s beleaguered offense is surely a higher priority than a pursuit of any pitcher, and the club may prefer to keep its financial powder dry with an eye on a robust free agent class next offseason that currently projects to include offensive stars such as Juan Soto, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman. Nightengale seemingly indicates that the Blue Jays don’t have interest in adding Snell at his current, hefty asking price, and even if the price on his services does drop its likely a rotation-needy club such as the Red Sox or Angels would have more incentive to win a bidding war than Toronto. If the Blue Jays are hoping to add depth to their rotation without breaking the bank, pursuing a hurler capable of swinging between the rotation and the bullpen such as Alex Wood, Jakob Junis, or previously-rumored target Yariel Rodriguez could provide the club with additional depth while leaving the door open to a pursuit of Bellinger, Chapman, or any of next winter’s star free agents.

Dylan Cease Rumors: Dodgers, Busch, Orioles, Yankees

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Considering the Dodgers’ need for pitching, it isn’t surprising that L.A. was linked to White Sox righty Dylan Cease in trade rumors on multiple occasions this winter.  There hasn’t been much in the way of new reporting on the Dodgers’ interest in Cease for over a month, however, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes that a trade may be less likely because the Dodgers have since fortified their rotation with other arms.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s twelve-year, $325MM contract was the big free agent strike, and Los Angeles swung a big trade with the Rays to land Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot.  Yamamoto, Glasnow, and Walker Buehler now project as the top three starters in the L.A. rotation, with Bobby Miller as the fourth, and a collection of candidates (Ryan Yarbrough, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, Michael Grove) battling for the fifth starter job.  Dustin May is expected to make a midseason return from elbow surgery, and a reunion with Clayton Kershaw remains a possibility even if Kershaw will also be sidelined until around the middle of the year as he recovers from shoulder surgery.

There’s still some room here for the Dodgers to further solidify things beyond a potential new contract with Kershaw, so a Cease trade can’t be entirely ruled out, even if may be less likely.  It’s safe to assume that the Dodgers will continue to monitor the market for any bigger-name possibilities, yet Rosenthal writes that Los Angeles might now be “looking for future value” in any further trades, such as Thursday’s swap with the Cubs that saw the Dodgers acquire two teenage prospects in exchange for Michael Busch and Yency Almonte.

In one particularly novel scenario, Rosenthal reports that the Dodgers even considered acquiring Cease from the White Sox and then flipping him to a third team.  The specifics of this arrangement aren’t clear, yet it would’ve been a fascinating way for both the Dodgers and White Sox to obtain some high-level young talent for Cease, in a mix-and-match of prospects each team might’ve had their eye on in the Dodgers’ organization or within the pipeline of whoever the third club involved might’ve been.

Busch was also part of some of the Dodgers’ offers for Cease, Rosenthal writes, so the young infielder might’ve found himself on the south side of Chicago rather than landing in Wrigleyville.  Without knowing what the rest of this trade package to the White Sox might have included, it makes sense why the Sox might have not been too enthralled with Busch as a key piece.  While Busch has been crushing minor league pitching, his defense is considered a weak point — if first base ends up being his ultimate position, the White Sox already have Andrew Vaughn in place.

It isn’t any secret that the White Sox have put a very high price tag on Cease, so while Busch is a top-100 type of prospect, the Sox might’ve viewed him as a secondary or even tertiary piece in an acceptable trade package.  Several highly-regarded prospects have been reportedly on Chicago’s radar in trade talks, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds Yankees pitching prospect Chase Hampton and Orioles outfielders Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser to the list of young players drawing interest from the Southsiders.

Since the Yankees just signed Marcus Stroman this week, they could perhaps be out on Cease, since naturally New York isn’t keen on the idea of moving Hampton or slugger Spencer Jones, who is also reportedly of interest to the White Sox in a Cease trade.  Considering how the Yankees already dealt a lot of their younger pitching depth to the Padres to obtain Juan Soto, moving Hampton in particular might be something of a non-starter.

Kjerstad (the second overall pick of the 2020 draft) and Cowser (fifth overall in 2021) are two of the many up-and-comers in Baltimore’s loaded farm system, and both players made their Major League debuts this past season, though with only 110 combined plate appearances.  The duo might well be lined up as the Orioles’ corner outfielders of the future, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see pending free agent Anthony Santander dealt at some point this season if either Kjertsad or Cowser prove themselves capable of being MLB regulars right away.

Of course, it’s not out of the question that the O’s might deal from their deep minor league pipeline at some point this offseason, perhaps to obtain a front-of-the-rotation pitcher like Cease.  Baltimore might be more willing to come closer to Chicago’s asking price due to the sheer number of quality prospects the O’s have on hand, yet considering how many of those youngsters have barely reached the majors or even Triple-A, the Orioles might want more time to evaluate their options before deciding on who might be trade bait.

Yankees, Rangers Are “Potential Frontrunners” For Hector Neris

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The market for right-hander Hector Neris may be picking up steam, as MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports that the Yankees and Rangers have emerged as potential frontrunners for the veteran’s services.

After spending the first eight seasons of his career in Philadelphia, Neris hit the open market and landed with the Astros on a two-year deal prior to the 2022 campaign. The deal featured an $8.5MM vesting option ($1MM buyout) for the 2024 campaign, but Neris met the appearance thresholds stipulated in the deal to vest it into a player option and declined it earlier this winter, allowing him to depart Houston and test the open market. It’s easy to see why Neris declined the option. The 34-year-old is coming off a dominant season in Houston where he posted a sterling 1.71 ERA (246 ERA+) with a 28.2% strikeout rate in 68 1/3 innings of work across 71 appearances.

While an elevated 11.4% walk rate and an unbelievable 90.5% strand rate both cast doubt on that fantastic performance, as does his 3.83 FIP, looking at the righty’s time in Houston as a whole highlights Neris as one of the more consistent relievers in the game over the past two seasons. In 133 2/3 innings of work since the start of the 2022 campaign, Neris has posted a 2.69 ERA and 3.10 FIP with a 29.1% strikeout rate against a 9% walk rate. That ERA ranks tenth among all relievers with at least 120 innings of work over the past two seasons, while his strikeout rate ranks 14th.

That strong performance during his time in Houston led MLBTR to predict a two-year $15MM contract for Neris on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where Neris was ranked 46th. His market has been fairly quiet this winter, however. While the Astros and Cardinals have both received passing mentions as possible landing spots for the righty this winter, much of the conversation on the right-handed relief market has been focused on Jordan Hicks this winter. With that said, yesterday’s news of a four-year deal between Hicks and the Giants takes the top right-handed reliever off the board and leaves Neris as perhaps the second best righty reliever remaining after Robert Stephenson.

It’s hardly a surprise that the Rangers would have interest in Neris’s services. The reigning World Series champions’ bullpen woes are well-established at this point, as a relief corps that struggled to a 4.77 ERA last year has lost the likes of Aroldis Chapman, Will Smith, and Chris Stratton to free agency. That leaves closer Jose Leclerc as the only reliable, late-inning holdover for the Rangers headed into 2024. While the addition of Kirby Yates earlier this winter should help, Texas will surely need more relief reinforcements this winter if they hope to emerge atop a competitive AL West in 2024 much less return to the World Series. While the club has occasionally been linked to relief ace Josh Hader this winter, the club’s reported budgetary issues could leave the lefty out of their price range, making Neris a more affordable alternative.

By contrast, the Yankees are something of a surprising suitor for the veteran righty. The club’s 3.34 bullpen ERA in 2023 was the best among all major league clubs last year, and while the relief corps lost a key piece in Michael King to the Padres as part of the return for Juan Soto the Bronx bullpen still features the likes of Clay Holmes, Jonathan Loasigia, and Tommy Kahnle as high-leverage arms with Ian Hamilton, Scott Effross, and Victor Gonzalez among those expected to handle the middle innings. Given the strength of that group, it’s fair to wonder if the club’s resources would be better allocated elsewhere, particularly given the question marks remaining in the rotation even after landing Marcus Stroman.

Nonetheless, Andy Martino of SNY confirms that the Yankees are engaged in the relief market at this point in the winter and suggests that a reunion with left-hander Wandy Peralta, who posted a 2.83 ERA despite a 5.05 FIP in 54 innings with the club last year, could be another possible avenue for the team to explore in its search for bullpen upgrades. Martino also notes that the team was heavily involved in the sweepstakes for Hicks before he ultimately settled on heading to San Francisco for a chance to start. With the likes of Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery expected to secure hefty guarantees in free agency and the asking price on trade candidates such as Dylan Cease seemingly out of New York’s comfort zone, it’s possible GM Brian Cashman and his front office have pivoted to bolstering the club’s bullpen as an alternative route to upgrading the club’s pitching staff after focusing on rotation upgrades for much of the winter.

Yankees Sign Marcus Stroman

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The Yankees’ rotation has gotten a boost, as the club has announced that they have signed veteran righty Marcus Stroman. It’s a two-year deal with a conditional player option for 2026 that reportedly comes with a $37MM guarantee. The 2026 vesting option would become an $18MM player option if he reaches 140 innings in 2025. Stroman is represented by Roc Nation Sports.

Stroman, 33 in May, was a first-round pick by the Blue Jays in the 2012 draft. A fast riser to the big leagues, the right-hander made is debut in 2014 and performed well in his rookie season with a 3.65 ERA and 2.84 FIP in 130 2/3 innings of work. Though Stroman was limited to just four starts in his sophomore season by a torn ACL, the righty established himself as a fixture in Toronto’s rotation in the following years.

By the time the club shipped him to the Mets in a deal at the 2019 trade deadline, Stroman had compiled a solid 3.76 ERA and 3.60 FIP across 135 appearances (129 starts) in a Blue Jays uniform. The right-hander’s tenure in New York was somewhat shortened by him opting out of the shortened 2020 campaign, but Stroman pitched well when on the mound for the Mets, including a 3.02 ERA and 3.49 FIP across a league-leading 33 starts during the 2021 season.

Having accepted a qualifying offer to return to the Mets in 2021, Stroman entered the 2021-22 offseason as an unrestricted free agent and found a new team quickly, agreeing to a three-year deal with the Cubs just before the players were locked out in early December. Stroman pitched solidly in his first season as a Cub, with a 3.50 ERA and 3.76 FIP across 138 2/3 innings of work. Entering the 2023 campaign, it appeared the righty had taken a step forward at the age of 32 as he pitched to an incredible 2.28 ERA with a 3.33 FIP in 98 2/3 innings of work across the first 16 starts of his season.

Unfortunately, things came apart from there as Stroman allowed a whopping 28 runs (24 earned) in just 27 innings across his next six starts before heading to the injured list with a hip issue. His stay on the shelf was extended by a rib cartilage fracture and by the time he returned to action in mid-September, the veteran righty was only able to muster eight middling innings of performance over his final four appearances in a Cubs uniform. Despite the rough second half, Stroman nonetheless finished the 2023 campaign with solid overall numbers, including a 3.95 ERA and 3.58 FIP in 136 2/3 innings of work.

Likely with his sights on a multiyear deal, Stroman opted of the final year and $21MM of his deal with the Cubs, returning to free agency. Stroman’s free agent market remained quiet for much of the offseason, though he was connected to the Royals before Kansas City ultimately opted to add right-handers Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo last month. The righty’s market reportedly picked up as the calendar flipped to 2024, with Heyman noting that the Red Sox, Orioles, Giants, and Angels were among the teams interested in the veteran’s services outside of the Bronx.  Ultimately, Stroman’s contract matches well with the two-year, $44MM prediction MLBTR made back on November 6th.

Now, Stroman is set to return to New York to pitch on the other side of the Subway Series. The right-hander adds some veteran stability to the club’s rotation behind ace Gerrit Cole after southpaws Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon both produced uneven, injury-marred campaigns in 2023. As things stand, right-handed youngster Clarke Schmidt figures to round out the club’s starting quintet after producing solid back-end results across 33 appearances (32 starts) with the Yankees last year.

While Stroman has never been much of a strikeout artist, typically punching out around 20% of batters faced in a given year, he sports a strong 6.9% walk rate for his career and has been extremely effective at keeping the ball on the ground across his ten years as a major league player. Stroman’s groundball rate has never dipped below 50% throughout his career, and his 57.1% grounder rate last year actually slightly surpasses his career mark of 56.7%. Only Logan Webb, Framber Valdez, and Dallas Keuchel have generated grounders at a higher clip than Stroman throughout their careers among active players, and only Webb walks fewer batters among that group. It’s a style of play that should work particularly well in Yankee stadium, which was the third-most homer friendly park in the majors last year according to Statcast.

The addition of Stroman takes the Yankees over the final $297MM luxury tax threshold, with RosterResource projecting the club for a luxury tax payroll of just under $306MM in 2024.  Every dollar the Yankees spend beyond that $297MM threshold will be taxed at a whopping 110% rate, given the team’s status as a third-time payor in 2024. The club’s actual 2024 payroll is similarly high, sitting at just over $294MM. That will be the highest payroll in club history, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

Adding a starting pitcher to the club’s rotation appeared to be the Yankees’ biggest need at this point in the offseason, so it’s possible the club is mostly done for the winter at this point. Recent reports have indicated the club has some level of interest in the likes of Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber and Jesus Luzardo, including a report earlier today that the club had made an offer to Snell. All of that was prior to the club’s addition of Stroman, of course, though it’s at least feasible the club could look to add another starter to pair with Cole at the front of the rotation, likely pushing Schmidt into a swing role out of the bullpen.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported that the sides were “making progress” on a deal. Mike Mayer of Metsmerized was first with the sides coming to an agreement. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported that the deal, which is pending a physical, is for two years with an option for a third. Joel Sherman of the New York Post first reported the deal’s average annual value of $18.5MM a season, while Heyman first added that the third year is a vesting option. Sherman reported further details on the option.

Yankees, Gleyber Torres Avoid Arbitration

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The Yankees and infielder Gleyber Torres have avoided arbitration, per Joel Sherman of The New York Post. The Octagon client will make $14.2MM this year in his final year of club control before reaching free agency.

Torres just turned 27 in December, so he’s on track to become a free agent at an earlier point of his career than most free agents. He put together a strong .273/.347/.453 slash in 672 trips to the plate in 2023, popping 25 home runs and connecting on 28 doubles and a pair of triples. Torres walked at a 10% clip — the highest mark of his career in a full season — and struck out at a career-low 14.6% clip. He added 13 steals in 19 tries as well. Both Defensive Runs Saved (-4) and Outs Above Average (-3) pegged him as a slightly below-average defender, but neither portrayed him as a pure liability. Torres’ well-rounded offensive output more than offset any shortcomings with the glove.

While Torres has been an oft-rumored trade candidate throughout his Yankees tenure, it seems increasingly likely that he’ll play out his final season of club control in Yankee pinstripes. He was the team’s second-best hitter behind Aaron Judge last season, and the Yanks are going all out in an effort to return to the postseason after last year’s miss — evidenced by their acquisition of Juan Soto, their aggressive (but unsuccessful) pursuit of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and tonight’s subsequent $37MM deal with right-hander Marcus Stroman. Add in the club’s trade for division rival outfielder Alex Verdugo and the potential for some further free-agent upgrades in the bullpen, and it’s clear the Yankees are focused on putting the best possible team on the field. Torres should be a pivotal part of that.

Torres has had an up-and-down tenure in the Bronx. He’ll probably never replicate the 38-homer season he delivered in the juiced-ball campaign back in 2019, but after moving off shortstop to a second base position that suits him far better, he’s been a consistently above-average hitter. Whether that’s pure happenstance or whether the pressures of struggling at shortstop were weighing on him at the plate can never be definitively proven, but either way, Torres has hit .266/.330/.452 since his position change.

Assuming he’s able to author a third consecutive season in that general vicinity, Torres will reach free agency next year as one of the top infielders available — both based on his age and his offensive track record. He’d be a surefire candidate to receive and reject a qualifying offer, giving the Yankees the opportunity to recoup some value in the form of a 2025 draft pick (as will be the case with the aforementioned Soto). That could well be the ultimate route for Torres, too, as the Yankees could turn the second base job over to prospect Oswald Peraza in 2025, when he’ll still be just 24 years of age.

Yankees, Juan Soto Avoid Arbitration

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The Yankees and star outfielder Juan Soto have avoided arbitration, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The sides settled upon a $31MM salary for the 2024 season — a new record for the largest salary every agreed to by an arbitration-eligible player. Soto, a client of the Boras Corporation, surpasses the $30MM benchmark that was established by two-time AL MVP Shohei Ohtani just last offseason.

The 25-year-old Soto is coming off another strong season at the plate. After being shipped to the Padres at the 2022 trade deadline, the young phenom struggled with his new club early in the 2023 campaign with a .183/.345/.344 slash line in his first 27 games.

Soto managed to flip a switch from there, however, slashing an excellent .293/.423/.554 the rest of the way to elevate his season-long slash line to a strong .275/.410/.519. The performance saw Soto walk more often than he struck out for the fourth consecutive season, earn his third consecutive All-Star appearance as well as his fourth consecutive Silver Slugger award, and finish sixth in NL MVP voting while appearing in all 162 games for San Diego.

Between that walk year performance and the three prior times he’d been through the arbitration process as a Super Two player, Soto now stands alone as the highest-paid arbitration player in history (at least on a one-year deal). A new record was always the expectation; MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s model projected a $33MM salary for Soto, and both the Padres and the Yankees were surely anticipating a new highwater mark as well.

The looming precedent served as the impetus behind the deal that shipped Soto to the Bronx earlier this winter, as the Yankees surrendered right-handers Michael King, Jhony Brito, and Randy Vasquez as well as catcher Kyle Higashioka and top pitching prospect Drew Thorpe to acquire Soto and center fielder Trent Grisham. The Padres, after years of ultra-aggressive spending in free agency and on the trade market, were known to be looking to scale back payroll by as much as $50MM and simultaneously looking to replenish a rotation mix that lost Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Nick Martinez and Michael Wacha to free agency.

Soto’s stop in the Bronx could well be for one year, though the Yankees will surely do everything in their power to keep him long-term. However, he’ll reach free agency at just 26 years of age next winter and do so as one of the most accomplished young bats to ever reach the open market so early.

The rarity of this type of talent becoming a free agent at such a young age could position Soto to command a contract in excess of the $460MM net present value of Ohtani’s extraordinarily deferred 10-year, $700MM deal — and it’s also possible that he could lock in the lengthiest contract ever put forth if he and agent Scott Boras prioritize that. Last offseason saw teams willing to dole out contracts greater than a decade in length to Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts, each running through the players’ age-40 season. A contract covering Soto’s age-40 season would need to extend a mammoth 15 years in length, but for a player of this caliber at such a young age, anything could be on the table.

Soto, in fact, already rejected a staggering 15-year, $440MM contract offer from the Nationals back in 2021, which led to his original trade from D.C. to San Diego. Detractors panned the decision at the time, but with today’s $31MM agreement, he’ll already have pocketed $54MM since spurning that overture. He’ll “only” need to top $386MM in free agency to come out ahead, and as surreal as that number sounds, it also feels quite feasible.

Any talk of a record-setting deal (or close to it) in free agency next winter is putting the cart before the horse to some extent, of course. Soto will need to remain healthy in 2024 and continue to produce at the prodigious levels we’ve come to expect throughout his incredible big league tenure. Despite having just turned 25 in October, Soto already has 160 career home runs and is a lifetime .284/.421/.524 hitter in 3375 plate appearances. That incredible OBP currently stands as the 19th-best mark in MLB history.

Yankees Have Made Offer To Blake Snell

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The Yankees have made an opening contract offer to free agent starter Blake Snell, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Terms of the proposal aren’t clear, but Heyman adds the team and Snell’s representatives at the Boras Corporation remain “far apart” in talks.

New York is one of the teams that has been most frequently connected to Snell in recent weeks. That’s at least in part because they’re seemingly involved on most or all of the big-name pitchers available. They’ve been linked to old friend Jordan Montgomery and right-hander Marcus Stroman in free agency. On the trade front, reports have tied the Yankees to the likes of Dylan Cease, Jesús Luzardo and Shane Bieber.

It doesn’t seem they’re all that close on any of those players. Heyman reports the Yankees have thus far balked at Chicago’s asking price on Cease, which he adds involves a prospect package centered around 2022 first-round pick Spencer Jones. Baseball America recently ranked Jones, who hit .268/.337/.450 with 13 homers in High-A last year, as the #2 talent in the New York farm system. That’s consistent with various reports that Chicago wants multiple high-end prospects for Cease.

Meanwhile, Heyman notes there’s been “no traction” between the Yankees and Miami on talks involving Luzardo or righty Edward Cabrera. It’s unclear whether rentals like Bieber or Corbin Burnes will move this offseason. If New York doesn’t pick up steam on any of their trade conversations — they’ve surely discussed possibilities beyond what has been publicly reported — that could increase their urgency to add a top-of-the-rotation starter via free agency.

Snell and Montgomery are the clear top two options available. The incumbent Rangers have been linked to Montgomery throughout the offseason. Teams like the Angels, Giants, Phillies and Red Sox have been tied to both left-handers. The Giants and Halos have been more frequently linked to Snell than have the latter two clubs.

The Yankees are the first team known to have an offer on the table (although that’s certainly not to say there aren’t others that were unreported). Snell is coming off his second career Cy Young campaign. He worked to an MLB-best 2.25 ERA over 180 innings. He fanned over 31% of batters faced and was utterly dominant down the stretch, posting a 1.23 ERA from June 1 onward. His command is erratic, but few pitchers are as difficult to hit when they’re on.

A pursuit of Snell is fairly reminiscent of last winter’s run at Carlos Rodón, another left-hander with huge stuff coming off an excellent platform year despite some career inconsistency. Rodón’s six-year, $162MM deal looked disastrous in year one. While one could argue that should make the Yankees gun-shy about pursuing a similar pitcher, it also increases the need for another high-end starter. Neither Rodón nor Nestor Cortes looked like top-of-the-rotation arms last season. That leaves New York looking for another star to pitch behind Gerrit Cole and reduce some of the pressure on Rodón and Cortes.

MLBTR predicted a seven-year, $200MM deal for Snell, who turned 31 last month. A signing team would also forfeit draft compensation because he rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres. For a team that paid the luxury tax like the Yankees, that’d be their second- and fifth-highest selections next year and $1MM in international signing bonus space. New York’s luxury tax payroll sits around $291MM, according to Roster Resource. They’re taxed at a 95% rate on spending up to the $297MM mark and will pay a 110% tax on every dollar beyond that figure.

Yankees Sign Luke Weaver To Major League Deal

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The Yankees announced they have signed right-hander Luke Weaver to a one-year deal with a club option. Robert Murray of FanSided initially reported the deal, noting that Weaver will make $2MM in 2024 with the potential for the deal to max out at $8.25MM. The deal for the Ballengee Group client is pending a physical. Jon Heyman of The New York Post relays that there are performance bonuses in 2024 while the 2025 option comes with a $2.5MM base salary and escalators based on innings pitched in 2024 that could push it to $6MM.

Luke Weaver | Jake Roth-USA TODAY SportsWeaver, 30, had a nomadic season in 2023, one which he finished with the Yankees. They claimed him off waivers from the Mariners in mid-September and he made three starts for the club down the stretch. He tossed 13 1/3 innings over those outings and had a solid earned run average of 3.38.

That’s obviously a small sample of work and the rest of his season wasn’t nearly as impressive. He signed a $2MM deal with the Reds for the year but posted a 6.87 ERA in 97 innings for that club. He was released in August and signed with the Mariners, logging 13 1/3 innings for them with a 6.08 ERA before heading to the Yanks to finish out the year. Between the three clubs, he talled 123 2/3 frames with a 6.40 ERA, 19.4% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 35.5% ground ball rate.

The righty has shown better form in the past, including a stretch from 2017 to 2019 when he posted a 4.21 ERA in 261 innings between the Cardinals and Diamondbacks, with Weaver joining Andrew Young and Carson Kelly as the return in the Paul Goldschmidt trade. He paired a 23.4% strikeout rate in that time with a 7.6% walk rate, also getting grounders on 43.5% of balls in play. But his ERA jumped to 6.58 in the shortened 2020 season. He recovered somewhat in 2021, getting that down to 4.25, but missed time due to a strained shoulder and elbow inflammation and only made 13 starts.

In 2022, the Diamondbacks moved him to a relief role, which didn’t work out. He finished the year with a 6.56 ERA, split between the Snakes and the Royals, getting flipped at the deadline for Emmanuel Rivera. The Reds took a shot on him and moved him back to a starting role but, as mentioned, that didn’t work out well either.

Overall, he goes into 2024 with a 5.14 ERA which isn’t immediately impressive. He has never really had control problems, however, having never walked more than 8.9% of hitters in any season and currently sporting a 7.4% rate for his career. For reference, the league average in 2023 with 8.6%. Perhaps there’s some bad luck overall in his results, as his .328 batting average on balls in play and 68.4% strand rate are reach on the unfortunate side of average. ERA estimators such as his 4.31 FIP and 4.20 SIERA paint a more flattering picture than his actual ERA. But on the other hand, his strikeouts have ticked down for four straight seasons now.

The Yankees put a sizable dent in their pitching depth with the Juan Soto trade, as Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez were each sent to San Diego. The Yanks are set to have Gerrit Cole ace the ace this year, with Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes each looking to bounce back from injury-related struggles in 2023. Clarke Schmidt should be line for a back end job. The club has also been heavily connected to free agent starters like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Marcus Stroman, as well as trade candidates like Dylan Cease.

Even if they do land another starter in the coming weeks, depth will still be important. Almost no club gets through a season using only its top five projected starters, with each team inevitably needing to turn to starter number six and seven and so on. The Yanks have Clayton Beeter, Luis Gil, Yoendrys Gómez, Cody Poteet and Will Warren around as depth options but Weaver will presumably jump into that mix.

Though his results on the season as a whole were poor in 2023, he finished strong in pinstripes and they must have liked what they saw. He’s also a former first-round pick and top prospect, in addition to having some decent major league results in the past. The $2MM salary isn’t far beyond this year’s $740K major league minimum, but the Yankees are slated to be a third-time competitive balance tax payor, with Roster Resource projecting a $291MM CBT figure at the moment. That puts them above the third tax line and near the fourth and final line of $297MM. Their current level of spending has a 95% and it would be 110% for any spending beyond the top line, so the Yanks will effectively be paying double for Weaver and anyone else they sign from now on.

If Weaver doesn’t have a rotation job to start the season, he will likely find himself in a bullpen job, perhaps as a long reliever. He has over five years of major league service time and cannot be optioned to the minors without his consent. If the Yanks want to remove him from the active roster at any point, they will need to work out a trade or designate him for assignment.

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