Yankees, Jordan Montgomery Have Reopened Discussions
The Yankees are “back in contact” with Jordan Montgomery’s camp at the Boras Corporation, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman adds that there’s still a gap between the southpaw’s asking price and the team’s comfort level.
Montgomery is the highest-profile player available in free agency. He’s not the last notable Boras Corp. client who remains unsigned — J.D. Martinez has also lingered on the market — but he is the final member of the top group that included Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman and Blake Snell. All of those players eventually moved to short-term guarantees (three years for the position players, two for Snell) that allow them to opt out next offseason.
The 31-year-old Montgomery has reportedly been less amenable to that kind of arrangement. Heyman wrote that Montgomery was looking for a seven-year pact as recently as March 8. Early in the winter, his camp had tried to beat the $172MM guarantee which Aaron Nola landed to return to Philadelphia. Neither mark seems especially plausible just a week before Opening Day.
Part of Montgomery’s aversion to a short-term pact could be the qualifying offer. Since he was traded from the Cardinals to the Rangers midway through the 2023 season, he was ineligible to receive the QO. He hit this year’s market unencumbered by draft compensation. Each of Snell, Bellinger and Chapman declined a QO. They’re all ineligible to receive the offer again, as the collective bargaining agreement prevents a player from being tagged more than once in his career.
Montgomery could still receive the QO in a future winter, which could make the possibility of retesting free agency in a year comparatively less appealing. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald explored this afternoon, one option would be to wait until after the start of the regular season to sign. Only players who are on the same team for the entire preceding season can receive a qualifying offer.
It’s not clear how much that’s a calculus in Montgomery’s decision. Perhaps he was simply the most patient of the group in hoping that a long-term pact would present itself. That was clearly what he envisioned when he hit the open market after helping Texas to the first World Series in franchise history. Montgomery is coming off a personal-low 3.20 ERA in the regular season. He has reached 30 starts while allowing fewer than four earned runs per nine in each of the last three years.
For many players, the market simply hasn’t materialized the way they’d anticipated. The Rangers have cited concern about their local broadcasting contract as a reason for a relatively quiet offseason. Texas took a reduced rights fee to keep their contract with Diamond Sports Group for another season. While their deal had previously paid a reported $111MM annually, Heyman reported yesterday that they’ll receive $90MM for this year. There’s still broad skepticism about Diamond’s viability beyond the upcoming season.
The Yankees have no such concern about their television contract, as they’re very well positioned as co-owners of the YES Network. Their major spending deterrent is the luxury tax. New York is beyond the $297MM figure that marks the fourth tier of penalization. They’ve paid the CBT for two consecutive seasons, subjecting them to the highest penalties. The Yankees would owe a 110% tax on the average annual value of any additional signing.
That has evidently kept them from addressing a rotation that looks tenuous. Gerrit Cole will be out into May or June after experiencing elbow inflammation. New York parted with Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vásquez and Drew Thorpe in the Juan Soto trade. Their only significant rotation acquisition this offseason has been a two-year deal for Marcus Stroman.
New York announced that Nestor Cortes will take the ball on Opening Day. He’ll be followed in the rotation by Carlos Rodón, Stroman and Clarke Schmidt. The fifth spot could fall to swingman Luke Weaver or a young pitcher like Clayton Beeter, Luis Gil or Will Warren. That’s already a risky group and there’s not much proven depth if anyone else from the top four suffers an injury.
Montgomery probably wouldn’t step into the Opening Day rotation given his lack of competitive Spring Training work, but he has been incredibly durable since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2018. There’s a clear on-paper fit for a return to the Bronx. While Montgomery had some parting shots for the front office after being traded to St. Louis at the ’22 deadline, Stroman had also publicly criticized the Yankees before signing his deal. Montgomery has been loosely linked to the Red Sox and Mets in recent weeks, yet neither franchise seems keen on making a significant investment at this point of the offseason.
Yankees Still Looking To Add Starting Pitching
The Yankees were frequently connected to Blake Snell while he was a free agent, but the lefty reportedly agreed to a two-year, $62MM deal with the Giants last night. Though Snell is off the board, the Yanks are still in the market for starting pitching, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post.
It’s understandable that the Yanks are still on the hunt for arms. They were often connected to Snell even before the recent news that ace Gerrit Cole is going to miss significant time due nerve inflammation and edema in his elbow.
Though the desire to add Snell seemed to be real, it appeared that the competitive balance tax was too much of an obstacle. The Yankees are set to be third-time payors of the tax and are already over the fourth and final threshold, meaning they face a 110% tax on any further spending. Snell didn’t find the long-term deal he was looking for, reportedly turning down a six-year, $150MM offer from the Yanks, and pivoted to a short-term pact with a high average annual value. Had the Yankees matched the $31MM AAV Snell got from the Giants, they would have had to pay $34.1MM in taxes as well.
That concern seemingly had them leaning towards a trade for Dylan Cease, since he’s still in his arbitration years and making just $8MM this year. But the Yanks missed out there as well, with Cease eventually getting shipped from the White Sox to the Padres. Heyman adds that they haven’t made much traction with other trade targets, such as Jesus Lúzardo of the Marlins.
But the need for reinforcements is apparent when looking at the rotation without Cole. Nestor Cortes went on the injured list due to a rotator cuff strain on two occasions last year and finished the season with a 4.97 ERA in 63 1/3 innings. Carlos Rodón dealt with a forearm strain and hamstring strain and posted a 6.85 ERA in his 64 1/3 innings. Marcus Stroman had a great first half but issues with his hip and rib cartilage pushed his ERA up to 3.95 by the end of the year.
Those three have each had much better results in the past but they are sort of wild cards now after their frustrating campaigns. Backing them up will be Clarke Schmidt, who had a 4.64 ERA last year. There would still be one spot open, with pitchers like Luke Weaver, Luis Gil, Clayton Beeter and Will Warren potential options. Weaver has finished three of the last four seasons with an ERA of 6.40 or higher. Gil underwent Tommy John surgery in May of 2022 and missed most of the last two years. Neither Beeter nor Warren have made their major league debuts yet.
The Yankees will understandably be open to upgrading that group, especially for a season in which they are clearly committed to winning. They sent five players to the Padres to get one season of Juan Soto, and two of Trent Grisham, and will pay Soto $31MM plus taxes in the process.
Opening Day is next Thursday but the club still has options, with various pitchers still unsigned thanks to this slow offseason. The club has been connected to pitchers like Michael Lorenzen and Jordan Montgomery, both of whom remain unsigned. Free agency also features guys like Mike Clevinger, Johnny Cueto and Noah Syndergaard. Earlier this month, reporting suggested Montgomery was still holding out for a seven-year deal but the other guys won’t require significant expenditures to sign.
With the start of the season so near, there would naturally be concern about a pitcher getting stretched out after missing so much of Spring Training. It seems Lorenzen has been getting himself ready on his own, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, who relays footage from Lorenzen’s agent of the righty throwing. Rosenthal reports that the righty recently threw 70 innings, getting up and down four times. He would likely still require some official game action but it doesn’t seem as though he would require a traditional six-week ramping up period.
Lorenzen has reportedly been seeking a two-year deal while also receiving interest from clubs like the White Sox and Mets.
DJ LeMahieu Questionable For Opening Day
Yankees manager Aaron Boone provided reporters, including Greg Joyce of The New York Post, with an update today regarding DJ LeMahieu. The infielder fouled a ball off his right foot recently and Boone says LeMahieu has a “pretty significant” bone bruise and won’t be playing through it for the time being. With Opening Day now just over a week away, it’s unclear if LeMahieu will be ready in time.
LeMahieu, 35, is coming off a frustrating season. He didn’t go on the injured list last year but did battle through quad and calf soreness while hitting .243/.327/.390 for a wRC+ of 101. Just over a month ago, Boone was excited about LeMahieu’s improved health at the opening of camp. “He’s just more explosive to me,” Boone said, per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. Unfortunately, there now may be a snag in seeing that explosiveness in the regular season.
Even if LeMahieu misses some early time in the season, it may not be much. Opening Day injured list stints can be backdated by three days, so he might only miss a week if he’s put on the 10-day IL. It’s nonetheless a situation worth monitoring as it could leave them with a temporary hole at third base.
LeMahieu is slated to be the club’s everyday option at the hot corner, with Anthony Volpe, Gleyber Torres and Anthony Rizzo filling out the rest of the infield. The club was looking to bolster its veteran infield depth, having recently been connected to players like Enrique Hernández and Amed Rosario, though those players have now signed with the Dodgers and Rays, respectively.
The plan with signing either of those two would have involved Oswald Peraza getting optioned to the minors for regular reps, ready to be recalled for more regular playing time if an injury occurred. That won’t be an option now as Peraza himself got injured by suffering a shoulder strain that will shut him down for six to eight weeks.
As it currently stands, the Yanks have Oswaldo Cabrera, Jahmai Jones and Jorbit Vivas as depth infielders on their roster. Cabrera had an exciting debut in 2022 but hit just .211/.275/.299 last year. Jones was just claimed off waivers three weeks ago while Vivas has not yet made his major league debut and was optioned to Triple-A after today’s game. Players like Josh VanMeter, Jeter Downs and Kevin Smith are in camp as non-roster invitees though each of them has struggled against big league pitching.
The end of Spring Training usually shakes a few players loose, as roster decisions are made around the league. For instance, veteran infielder Josh Harrison just opted out of his minor league deal with the Reds after being informed he wasn’t going to make the team. The Yankees could turn to Harrison or some other player in the coming days if they feel they need an extra body to cover for a LeMahieu absence.
Infielders like Donovan Solano and Evan Longoria remain unsigned. The Yankees are facing a 110% tax on any addition to their payroll at this point, as a third-time payor that’s over the fourth line of the competitive balance tax, but those guys won’t require huge sums to put pen to paper. The position player market has seemingly collapsed in recent weeks, with players like Hernández, Rosario, Gio Urshela and others signing for less than $5MM in guaranteed money.
Ultimately, the bigger concern might be the season-long performance, as opposed to any week-long absence. The 2023 Yankees were hampered by health problems, as Aaron Judge was only able to play 106 games due to IL stints while veterans like LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo struggled while dealing with various ailments.
Health is already in the spotlight for the Yanks as ace Gerrit Cole is set to miss significant time due to an elbow issue. Even before that situation cropped up, they knew they were going to need some bounceback campaigns from those veterans. They will therefore want to make sure LeMahieu is as healthy and productive as possible, which is perhaps why Boone is now suggesting he won’t be playing through this issue. The club may need to look to alternatives at third base until LeMahieu is back to being explosive again.
Gerrit Cole Recommended For Non-Surgical Rehab On Elbow
March 16: Cole will be shut down for the next three to four weeks before re-evaluating his condition, the Yankees ace told reporters, including Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. He added that it is too soon to determine a date for his return (per Hoch). The reigning AL Cy Young winner is nursing some nerve inflammation and edema, which he is planning to treat with “rest and recovery.” He does not anticipate getting any PRP injections.
March 14: The Yankees and their fans can breathe a sigh of relief. Jon Heyman and Mark W. Sanchez of the New York Post report that defending AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole is expected to avoid surgery after further evaluation on his ailing elbow. The recommendation is for a treatment program of rest and non-surgical rehab.
Heyman and Sanchez report that Cole is expected to be out for roughly one to two months. Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that the timeline for a return to MLB action should be closer to 10-12 weeks. In either case, surgery isn’t on the table at present and the Yankees should get their ace back within the season’s first half.
That was the initial expectation. Team doctors reportedly identified the issue as elbow inflammation and concluded that Cole’s ulnar collateral ligament was intact. He nevertheless visited noted orthopedic surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache for additional testing today. It seems that in-person evaluation confirmed the initial indication that Cole has not sustained any UCL damage.
It’s a positive development given the concern any time a pitcher, especially one at Cole’s level, heads for an MRI on his throwing elbow. Still, the Yankees are going to have to navigate the early portion of the schedule without him. If the timeline checks in closer to 10-12 weeks, he probably wouldn’t make his season debut until June. There’s a chance he winds up on the 60-day injured list.
There’s obviously no way to replace a pitcher of Cole’s caliber, but his absence puts additional pressure on the rotation depth. Carlos Rodón, Marcus Stroman and Nestor Cortes project as the top three arms in the season-opening rotation. Clarke Schmidt is penciled into the fourth spot. There’s not a clear #5 starter at the moment. Prospect Clayton Beeter is on the 40-man roster, as are Yoendrys Gómez and Luis Gil. The latter two were optioned to minor league camp in the first week of March, suggesting they’re a bit further down the depth chart. Chase Hampton and Will Warren are not on the 40-man roster, but they’re upper level starting pitching prospects with more advanced control than Beeter has shown in the minors. Luke Weaver has plenty of starting experience and returned to the Yankees via $2MM free agent deal. He’s coming off a 6.40 ERA season.
The Yankees could benefit from adding veteran stability to the back end. They recently checked in with Michael Lorenzen, arguably the #3 starter still on the free agent market. Lorezen certainly doesn’t have the upside of either of the top two unsigned pitchers, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, but he’d come at nowhere near the cost. That’s an obvious concern for a franchise that would pay a 110% tax on further spending.
If New York expected Cole to miss the entire season, perhaps that’d have increased their urgency to land one of Snell or Montgomery regardless of the money. That seems less likely with the Yankees anticipating Cole’s return in late May or early June, but a mid-tier arm like Lorenzen or Mike Clevinger could remain in play.
Yankees Interested In Michael Lorenzen
The Yankees have “checked in” on free agent right-hander Michael Lorenzen, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. The righty’s market may be heating up with just two weeks to go until Opening Day, as he was also connected to the White Sox yesterday.
The Yankees were already in the market for starting pitching, having been connected to Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery throughout the winter. Their need for rotation help only grew this week when ace Gerrit Cole was sidelined by an elbow issue. Cole and the Yankees are still gathering information but it seems like he will miss a month or two of the season even in a best-case scenario.
Whether Cole is ultimately destined for a brief or a lengthy absence, it’s a huge blow to the club’s rotation. Up until this issue popped up, he was the rocksteady leader of an otherwise shaky group. Carlos Rodón, Nestor Cortes and Marcus Stroman all battled injuries last year to varying extents.
Stroman was having a great year prior to his injury woes, as he had a 2.96 ERA at the All-Star break, but hip and rib cartilage injuries led to diminished results and missed time, as he finished the year with a 3.95 ERA in 136 2/3 innings. Rodón and Cortes ended up having fairly similar years in terms of limited innings and poor results. Rodón battled a forearm strain and hamstring strain as he posted a 6.85 ERA in 64 1/3 frames. Cortes twice went on the IL due to a rotator cuff strain in his left shoulder and finished the campaign with a 4.97 ERA in 63 1/3 innings.
There’s tons of bounceback potential in that trio, as Stroman has a 3.65 ERA in his career while having reached 179 innings four times in his career. Rodón was an ace over 2021 and 2022, posting a 2.67 ERA in 310 2/3 innings in that time. Cortes had a 2.61 ERA in that same two-year stretch, though in a lesser workload of 251 2/3 innings.
If all three are able to get back to their previous forms, the rotation could be in good shape without Cole, but that’s a lot for the Yanks to gamble on. They are heavily committed to competing in 2024, as they gave up five players to get one year of Juan Soto. They also got Trent Grisham from the Padres in that deal, but Soto’s 2024 season was obviously the highlight for them. In addition to the talent they gave up, they are paying Soto a $31MM salary, plus the taxes incurred as a third-time payor of the competitive balance tax.
Even in an ideal situation where Stroman, Rodón and Cortes are all in good form, there’s still the back end of the rotation to think about. Clarke Schmidt will likely be taking one spot after he put up a 4.64 ERA last year. That’s probably fine for a #5 guy but the fact that the Yankees have been consistently connected to free agents suggests they would prefer to knock Schmidt down to #6, but he’s instead been bumped up to #4 for as long as Cole is out.
Current options to take a spot behind Schmidt would include Luke Weaver, Clayton Beeter, Luis Gil, Yoendrys Gómez or Will Warren. Weaver has posted an ERA of 6.40 or higher in three of the past four seasons. Gil missed most of the past two seasons due to Tommy John surgery. Gómez has literally two innings of MLB experience while Beeter and Warren have none.
It’s a less than ideal group and it’s understandable that the club is interested in bolstering it. They’ve long been connected to marquee free agents like Snell and Montgomery but signing either of those guys would be especially costly. The Yanks are above the fourth and final tier of the CBT and are set to be a third-time payor, meaning any additional spending comes with a 110% tax bill. Even if Snell or Montgomery could be talked down to a $20MM annual salary at this late stage of the offseason, the Yanks would be looking at paying $22MM in taxes on top of that this year.
That situation would be lessened with Lorenzen, as he has a far more limited track record as a starter than those two. The Reds kept him in relief for most of his career but he sought out a return to starting when he reached free agency ahead of the 2022 season. He signed a one-year, $6.75MM deal with the Angels and was able to toss 97 2/3 innings, missing a couple of months with a shoulder strain and finishing the year with a 4.24 ERA.
It wasn’t an elite performance but he held his own and pushed up his annual workload. He then signed an $8.5MM deal with the Tigers for 2023 and took another step forward. He logged 105 2/3 innings with Detroit over 18 starts, with a 3.58 ERA in that time. He was traded to the Phillies and his first two starts for his new club were excellent. He allowed two earned runs over eight innings against the Marlins and then followed that up with a no-hitter against the Nationals.
He tossed 124 pitches in that no-hitter and seemed to break down after that. He was sporting a 3.23 ERA at that time but then allowed 27 earned runs in 30 1/3 innings the rest of the way, getting bumped to the bullpen in the process.
His 4.18 ERA on the year might not look amazing but it’s possible he ran out of gas after pushing himself further than he had gone before. Even if his true talent is a mid-4.00 ERA guy, that can be useful for the Yankees this year. Cole may be back in a few months but other injuries are inevitable and Lorenzen would improve the depth by pushing everyone down a peg.
It was reported last week that Lorenzen was holding out for a two-year deal that hasn’t yet materialized. Whether he can get that pact or ultimately has to settle for a one-year deal, he’ll be looking at a lesser salary than Snell or Lorenzen and the Yankees would have less to worry about in terms of taxes. A hypothetical $10MM salary, just as an example, would lead to $11MM in taxes. That’s still $21MM for a backend starter but it’s perhaps preferable to committing far more money and many more years for someone like Snell or Montgomery.
The Yankees were reportedly leaning towards acquiring Dylan Cease in the wake of Cole’s injury, as Cease’s $8MM salary would be far more palatable to them than the Snell/Montgomery duo, but Cease was traded to the Padres yesterday. There are some theoretical trade candidates still out there, such as Shane Bieber of the Guardians and Jesús Luzardo of the Marlins. However, both the Guards and the Fish are dealing with significant rotation injuries and may be less inclined to further subtract from their pitching staffs at the moment.
Lorenzen has received interest from the Mets, Angels, Twins, Padres and Orioles at various points this offseason, but he remains unattached now in mid-March. The Sox trading Cease seems to have given them some interest in signing Lorenzen to replace his innings, in addition to the Yankees sniffing around due to Cole’s situation. The regular season starts next week with the Seoul Series featuring the Dodgers and Padres but the rest of the league starts the season on March 28, two weeks from today.
Gerrit Cole Meeting With Dr. Neal ElAttrache Today
March 14: Cole is meeting with Dr. ElAttrache today, tweets Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. Manager Aaron Boone expects more information on his status this evening, although that doesn’t ensure that the Yankees will publicly disclose an update tonight.
March 13: Reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole will miss at least the first month or two of the season due to an elbow injury, report Jon Heyman and Mark Sanchez of the New York Post. Cole underwent an MRI earlier this week after experiencing difficulty recovering between spring starts and throwing sessions. The Yankees haven’t made a formal announcement on the injury or a timetable yet. Heyman reports that initial imaging on Cole’s right elbow has not detected a ligament tear, though there’s some inflammation and swelling still present. Cole’s MRI has been reviewed by multiple parties, including renowned surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache. Per the report, ElAttrache did not see a ligament tear but nonetheless suggested an in-person visit to personally examine Cole.
While it’s a sigh of relief that early imaging didn’t reveal a major tear, the fact that Cole is going for further testing remains an ominous sign. Inflammation can at times be substantial enough that it masks structural damage. Only time will tell whether that’s the case with Cole. Regardless, to call even an absence of roughly four to eight weeks for Cole a major blow for the team would only be stating the obvious. The 33-year-old righty is on the short list of baseball’s best and — until now — most durable pitchers. Furthermore, the Yankees’ rotation behind Cole is rife with question marks.
New York signed right-hander Marcus Stroman to a two-year, $37MM deal in the offseason, but Stroman’s All-Star 2023 season was cut short by second-half injuries — a hip issue and rib cartilage fractures. He was sporting an ERA in the low-2.00s for much of the season but was hit rocked in July while pitching through the hip injury and struggled down the stretch after returning from what wound up being an extended absence due to the rib troubles.
Lefties Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes were both limited to fewer than 65 innings in 2023, and neither pitched anywhere close to his 2021-22 form. Rodon’s season was particularly alarming, given that he’d pitched at Cy Young-caliber levels the prior two years and inked a six-year, $162MM deal with the Yankees just last offseason. A forearm strain and hamstring strain combined to limit Rodon to 64 1/3 innings — during which time he posted a 6.85 ERA with a 22.4% strikeout rate that was 11.5 percentage points shy of his ’21-’22 rate. Cortes, meanwhile, twice hit the IL with a strained rotator cuff in his left shoulder. His 4.97 ERA in 63 1/3 innings was more than double the 2.44 number he’d posted the year prior.
Right-hander Clarke Schmidt was the only other Yankees pitcher to make even 20 starts last year. He took the ball for a full slate of 32 games, pitching 159 innings with a 4.64 earned run average. Schmidt’s 21.5% strikeout rate was below the league average, but his 6.6% walk rate was strong and his 43.8% grounder rate, which clocked in a couple percentage points ahead of the average starting pitcher. Schmidt was too homer-prone (1.36 HR/9) but at least looked like he could give the Yankees around five competitive innings every fifth day, which could prove crucial with Cole shelved for a notable period and several injury question marks alongside him on the starting staff.
The Yankees traded away a significant amount of rotation depth when dealing Michael King, Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez to the Padres as part of the Juan Soto trade. Remaining in-house options for the now-vacant rotation spot include young righties Clayton Beeter, Luis Gil and Yoendrys Gomez — all three of whom are on the 40-man roster. Veteran righty Luke Weaver inked a one-year, $2MM deal and was expected to serve as a swingman, but he has ample starting experience in the majors and pitched well in three September starts for the Yanks last year. Top prospects Chase Hampton and Will Warren were both invited to camp as non-roster players, but neither is on the 40-man roster.
Of course, the possibility remains that the Yankees will go outside the organization to bring in a more established arm. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery remain unsigned, but the 110% luxury tax the team would pay on top of either player’s salary could prove exorbitant. Snell, in particular, would also cost the Yankees their second-highest draft choice in 2024 and require them to forfeit $1MM in bonus space from next year’s international amateur free agency pool. Ownership’s appetite for signing either player will now be tested. If not them, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote last night that righty Michael Lorenzen “could be an option” for the Yankees, though it’s not clear if the two parties have had any serious talks recently.
The trade market offers at least one more marquee name, and that seems to be the Yankees’ current area of focus. GM Brian Cashman and his staff have reportedly already presented the White Sox with a new offer for top starter Dylan Cease, though they’re joined by both the Rangers and Padres in their late pursuit of the 2022 AL Cy Young runner-up. The ChiSox had previously insisted that the Yankees include top outfield prospect Spencer Jones in any trade for Cease. The Yankees have balked at that ask. The new proposal to the Sox reportedly does not include Jones, though with several teams in the mix for Cease and the Yankees now staring down a potential two-month absence for Cole, it’s possible they’ll eventually acquiesce and meet Chicago’s asking price.
MLBTR Podcast: Injured Pitchers, Brayan Bello’s Extension, Mookie At Shortstop And J.D. Davis
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- Injuries to pitchers such as Gerrit Cole of the Yankees and Lucas Giolito of the Red Sox and the potential ripple effects (1:45)
- Red Sox sign Brayan Bello to an extension (7:10)
- Dodgers moving Mookie Betts to shortstop (10:40)
- Giants release J.D. Davis (16:10)
- Noelvi Marté of the Reds suspended for PEDs (22:50)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Who had the worst offseason and why is it the Angels? (25:15)
- Fact or Fiction? The Red Sox are going to trade Masataka Yoshida. (28:50)
- Considering the amount of effort the Tigers front office has put into fielding a major league team in the past 10 years, should Tiger fans feel slighted? “They can wait” seems to be the attitude. Should Tiger fans just stop buying Little Caesars pizza and encourage their friends to buy their pizzas elsewhere? I am sure franchise owners enjoy being associated with a cheap loser. (31:20)
Check out our past episodes!
- The Giants Sign Matt Chapman, Zack Wheeler’s Extension, And Blake Snell And Jordan Montgomery Remain – listen here
- How Cody Bellinger’s Deal Affects The Other Free Agents And Why The Offseason Played Out Like This – listen here
- Finding Fits For The “Boras Four,” Which Teams Could Still Spend? And Rob Manfred In His Last Term – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Report: Yankees Make New Offer For Dylan Cease
The Yankees are still in the process of gathering information on Gerrit Cole‘s elbow after he reported difficulty recovering between starts and underwent an MRI on Monday. In the meantime, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that they’ve made a new offer to the White Sox regarding right-hander Dylan Cease. Prior reporting on the talks between the two teams have indicated that the Yankees have refused to include outfield prospect Spencer Jones in any package for Cease, and Nightengale notes that Jones once again is not included in the new offer.
Trade talk surrounding Cease has died down in the latter stages of the offseason. White Sox GM Chris Getz has steadfastly held his asking price in negotiations throughout the offseason — an ask that other teams have deemed exorbitant.
If the Yankees indeed go outside the organization to bolster their staff, there’s some sense to preferring a trade to, say, signing a free agent like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery. Snell and Montgomery would come with huge annual salaries that are magnified by the 110% luxury tax the Yankees would pay for any additions at this point, given the current state of their payroll. Snell, in particular, would cost the Yankees their second-highest draft pick and $1MM of space from next year’s international amateur free agency pool, as he rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres. Cease has also been in camp with the White Sox, pitching in spring training games and building up for the season. Snell and Montgomery are surely working out on their own in preparation for the season, but that’s not necessarily the same as working in game settings. Cease wouldn’t come with any questions about whether he’d be ready for Opening Day, whereas a free-agent pickup at this point in the offseason calendar very much could.
Cease, the 2022 American League Cy Young runner-up, is earning $8MM this season and is controllable through the 2025 season via arbitration. He’s coming off a down year, having posted a pedestrian 4.58 earned run average in 177 frames with somewhat diminished averaged fastball velocity (96.9 mph in ’22, 95.8 mph in ’23). But Cease maintained strong strikeout numbers, missed bats at a plus level and was to some extent hampered by a .330 average on balls in play that was 46 points higher than his career mark entering the season. Other teams clearly view him as a playoff-caliber starter — evidenced by the widespread demand for him this winter — and the White Sox don’t seem likely to lower their asking price substantially, knowing they can also extract a substantial trade return for Cease this summer as long as he remains healthy.
Holding Cease with an eye toward the deadline presents the Sox with an obvious risk, as pitcher attrition in the sport is an inevitability. That’s underscored by the very reason the Yankees have apparently reengaged the White Sox on Cease. Cole and Cease have been the game’s two most durable starters for the past four years. Since 2020 (Cease’s first full season in MLB), Cease leads all big league pitchers with 109 starts. Cole’s 108 rank second, tying him with Aaron Nola and Jose Berrios. Even the most durable pitchers eventually break down, and if Cease incurs any kind of notable injury in the season’s first half, holding him will go down as a major setback in the White Sox’ rebuilding efforts.
Risk notwithstanding, the Sox have held firm in their asking price and seem prepared to wait until July if that price is not met. With regard to the Yankees, that includes Jones, a towering 6’6″ outfielder who’s drawn comparisons to Aaron Judge due to his physical size and his immense raw power. It’s unfair to expect any hitter to develop to Judge’s level, but the pure physical traits are similar. Baseball America credits Jones with plus power (60 on the 20-80 scale), while FanGraphs gives him a plus-plus rating (70-grade) in that department. Jones, who hit .267/.336/.444 between High-A and Double-A in his age-22 season last year, currently ranks 15th among all prospects at FanGraphs, 33rd at Baseball Prospectus, 46th at BA, 56th at ESPN and 84th at MLB.com.
Even if the Yankees remain unwilling to include Jones in an offer for Cease, the farm system is stacked with top-100 talents and with quality names behind that high-end contingent. Each of outfielder Jasson Dominguez, outfielder Everson Pereira, catcher Austin Wells, righty Chase Hampton, righty Will Warren and shortstop Roderick Arias has drawn top-100 fanfare on multiple lists. The overall depth of the system is considered strong as well, ranking sixth at ESPN, seventh at The Athletic, ninth at Baseball America and 11th at MLB.com.
The White Sox, who fired longtime baseball operations leaders Rick Hahn and Kenny Williams last summer, have been working to reshape the organization since shaking up the top end of the front office. Getz flatly stated that he “didn’t like our team” at the beginning of the offseason. Since taking the GM reins, he’d traded relievers Aaron Bummer and Gregory Santos, moved on from shortstop Tim Anderson and made a series of acquisitions to improve the club’s pitching depth and defense — two longstanding issues. Trading Cease would be his most significant transaction to date.
Yankees Notes: Judge, Cole, Rotation
Yankees star Aaron Judge has been slowed a bit by some abdominal discomfort recently, with manager Aaron Boone telling reporters yesterday that the 2022 AL MVP is “mid-spring banged up” while downplaying concerns of a more serious injury. Judge revealed this morning that he underwent an MRI on his abdominal region yesterday to ascertain that there was no significant injury at play (X link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). That imaging came back clean. Judge says he won’t swing a bat until later this week but is hopeful he’ll be in the Opening Day lineup.
On the one hand, the fact that Judge has avoided any kind of serious injury is an obvious cause for relief. On the other, it’s hardly ideal that the season hasn’t even begun and he’s less than 100 percent. Judge specified that the discomfort he’s felt has been in the middle of his abdominal muscles — not his oblique region. That’s particularly notable given that Judge has had a pair of oblique strains in the past, including a Grade 2 strain in 2019 that cost him two months of the season.
“I think just from swinging from November all the way until now, every single day, it put some wear and tear on it,” said Judge (via Hoch). “Especially coming back after a [right] toe injury when your mechanics are a little messed up and you’re just working on some things.”
Judge, 32 in April, was once again excellent in 2023 — though a hip strain in late April cost him 10 days, while the sprained toe he referenced wound up shelving him for more than a month. In all, he played in 106 games — his fewest in a 162-game season since 2019 — and posting a brilliant .267/.406/.613 slash with 37 home runs in just 458 trips to the plate.
The Yankees are already awaiting MRI results on ace and reigning Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole. Coupling that with even minor concern about the team’s best all-around player makes for an uncomfortable few days for the club and its fans. The Yankees indicated yesterday that Cole is expected to receive multiple opinions on his MRI results. An announcement today is not necessarily a given. SNY’s Andy Martino wrote yesterday that club officials have characterized the Cole MRI as “precautionary” and downplayed concern over a potential long-term injury. Time will tell whether that proves to be the case.
In the wake of the Cole news, there’s been a renewed focus on the Yankees’ rotation depth and ample speculation on contingency plans. The remaining pair of high-profile Scott Boras clients — Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery — have been at the forefront of that speculation. Martino reported in his piece that the Yankees haven’t yet circled back to Snell since concerns about Cole arose. Joel Sherman of the New York Post throws some cold water on the idea of the Yankees pivoting to either left-hander.
The luxury tax concerns for the Yankees have been highlighted at length by now. As a reminder, they’re a third-time payor who’s in the fourth and final tier of penalization. Any further additions to the payroll will be taxed at a 110% rate (based on the contract’s AAV) on top of the player’s salary. In the case of Snell, he’d also require forfeiting the team’s second-highest draft pick and surrendering $1MM of pool space in next year’s international free agent bonus pool, because Snell rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres.
Perhaps in part because of that, Sherman reports that the Yankees were more interested in Montgomery earlier in the offseason than in Snell — despite making a reported offer to the latter. The Yankees, per Sherman, “could not get a strong engagement” from Montgomery at the time, however. That lines up with some late-February reporting from The Athletic’s Jim Bowden, wherein he wrote that Montgomery’s hope had been for a return to the Rangers and that it was “believed” he did not “prefer” a Yankees reunion. With Montgomery still lingering on the market and the Rangers seemingly disinclined to spend further, none of that should expressly rule out an eventual match between Montgomery and the Yankees.
Sherman suggests that the likeliest course of action for the Yankees is to stand pat regardless of the news on Cole, though he opines that if they do make a move, they’re likelier to meet the White Sox’ asking price for right-hander Dylan Cease than they are to sign Snell or Montgomery. Cease is making $8MM this season and is controlled through 2025 via arbitration. He’d come with an $8.8MM luxury hit, but that’s a pittance relative to the tax hits it’d take to sign Montgomery or Snell for an AAV of $25-30MM — if not more. Prior reporting has indicated that the ChiSox were insistent on the inclusion of top outfield prospect Spencer Jones in talks regarding Cease, while the Yankees have been loath to consider moving him in any deal.
Gerrit Cole Undergoing MRI On Right Elbow
Yankees ace and reigning American League Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole is headed for an MRI on his right elbow, manager Aaron Boone told reporters Monday morning (X link via Newsday’s David Lennon). Cole hasn’t been recovering as well between throwing sessions and will get his elbow checked out to determine if there’s an injury at play. The imaging will take place today.
Cole will receive multiple opinions on the status of his elbow, and the Yankees don’t expect to announce a prognosis today or even tomorrow, tweets Bryan Hoch of MLB.com.
Boone didn’t provide additional details. The organization’s level of concern regarding a potential serious injury isn’t clear, though imaging performed on any pitcher’s elbow is an ominous sign. That’s particularly true in a Yankees rotation that can ill afford to lose its ace. Granted, no team is built to withstand the loss of a reigning Cy Young winner, but the rotation behind Cole is filled with a series of question marks.
The first season of Carlos Rodon‘s six-year, $162MM contract with the Yankees played out in disastrous fashion. After a dominant two-year run between the White Sox and Giants from 2021-22, Rodon was limited by injuries in 2023, logging just 14 starts (64 1/3 innings) and yielding a grisly 6.85 ERA with strikeout and walk rates that both trended heavily in the wrong direction (22.4% and 9.8%, respectively — down from 33.9% and 7.1% in the two seasons prior).
A strained left rotator cuff limited southpaw Nestor Cortes Jr. to a near-identical slate of 63 1/3 frames in 2023. He’s broken out with a pair of sub-3.00 ERA campaigns over the two preceding seasons. While Cortes maintained strong strikeout and walk rates, he became even more fly-ball heavy, inducing grounders at a minuscule 26% clip. He saw his HR/9 mark spike from 0.91 the year prior to 1.56 in 2023. Cortes didn’t see a disproportionate number of his fly-balls leave the yard (just 11%), but the sheer volume of balls in the air worked against him both at home (1.45 HR/9) and on the road (1.73 HR/9).
The Yankees picked up Marcus Stroman on a two-year, $37MM contract this offseason to help solidify the rotation, but he’s coming off an injury-marred season of his own. Stroman was in the NL Cy Young conversation with a strong first few months of the ’23 season before being rocked in July and placed on the injured list due to a hip injury. While rehabbing, he was diagnosed with fractures in his rib cartilage that further slowed his return to the mound. He made it back for four appearances late in the season but didn’t pitch particularly well. After carrying a 2.88 ERA through his first 20 starts, Stroman pitched just 18 more innings on the season and was lit up for 26 runs (22 earned) in that time.
Right-hander Clarke Schmidt finished second on the team with 32 starts and 159 innings pitched, though he turned in back-of-the-rotation results due in large part to his own susceptibility to home runs. Schmidt looks like he can at least be an innings eater this season, but he’s yet to have the same type of MLB success that any of his rotationmates has enjoyed in the past. There’s surely hope within the organization that the former top prospect can take a step forward, but his ability to do so (or lack thereof) will be even more pivotal if it’s determined that Cole has any type of notable injury.
The depth options behind that top quintet are shakier still. Veteran Luke Weaver inked a one-year, $2MM deal late in the offseason and seems ticketed for a swingman role, but he could start games if Cole requires any kind of absence. Weaver pitched well in three starts for the Yanks late last season but had a collective 6.40 ERA between Cincinnati, Seattle and New York — his third time in the past four seasons recording an ERA north of 6.00.
Down on the farm, the Yankees have righties Luis Gil, Clayton Beeter and Yoendrys Gomez on the 40-man roster. Gil has the most big league experience, and impressive as he was through six starts in 2021, he’s pitched just 29 2/3 total innings over the past two years owing to Tommy John surgery. Gomez pitched two MLB innings last year. Beeter has not reached the majors. Prospect Will Warren had a nice year between Double-A and Triple-A in 2023 but isn’t yet on the 40-man roster. He’s in camp as a non-roster invitee, however. Fellow prospect Chase Hampton and southpaw Tanner Tully were also NRIs this spring, but both have already been reassigned to minor league camp.
The mere possibility of an injury to Cole will rekindle speculation regarding free agents Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, both of whom have been tied to the Yankees at various points in the offseason. The Yankees reportedly made a five-year offer to Snell before pivoting to sign Stroman. The two sides have remained in touch with Snell, in particular, but a match has looked like a long shot given the massive tax implications that come with signing either lefty. The Yankees are a third-time luxury offender and are already in the highest tier of luxury-tax penalization. That means in addition to any actual salary for the upcoming season, they’ll pay a 110% tax on any additional contract’s average annual value. A $25MM AAV would come with a $27.5MM tax hit. A $30MM would carry a $33MM hit — and so on.
Previously, with a fully healthy rotation, such a lavish expenditure seemed unlikely. If the Yankees are facing a prolonged absence for Cole, however, that type of massive financial commitment could become far more plausible. Snell has reportedly been amenable to short-term, opt-out laden contracts with high annual salaries, while it seems Montgomery has been more focused on a longer-term contract. At this point of spring, however, it’s also worth wondering just how ready either free agent would be for Opening Day. A return to the trade market shouldn’t be discounted as a possibility, though the asking price on arms like Dylan Cease, Jesus Luzardo and others has been staggeringly high throughout the offseason (hance the lack of trade for either hurler).