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A’s Sign J.D. Davis

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March 18: Davis would earn $750K for reaching 500 plate appearances and another $250K if he reaches 550 plate appearances, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports.

March 16: The Athletics have now officially announced Davis’ one-year deal for the 2024 season.

March 15: The A’s have reportedly agreed to terms with third baseman J.D. Davis on a one-year, $2.5MM free agent contract. The deal, which is pending a physical and has not yet been announced by the team, contains an additional $1MM in performance bonuses. The infielder is represented by ALIGND Sports Management.

Davis stays in the Bay Area after being released by the Giants on Monday. His time in San Francisco ended on an acrimonious note. Pushed out of the starting lineup by the signings of Jorge Soler and Matt Chapman, he was arguably a redundant fit on the San Francisco roster. The Giants also carry Wilmer Flores as a righty-hitting corner infield/DH option.

That prompted San Francisco to shop Davis on the trade market. When no deal presented itself, the Giants placed him on outright waivers. The hope was that another team would claim him and assume the $6.9MM salary which his camp had won in an arbitration hearing in February. None of the other 29 teams took that on, leading the Giants to put Davis on release waivers.

While he was no longer a great roster fit in San Francisco, the release was clearly motivated in large part by finances. Under the collective bargaining agreement, arbitration-eligible players who settle on a contract without going to a hearing are entitled to their full salary even if they’re released. Arbitration salaries determined in a hearing — whether in favor of the player or team — are not fully guaranteed until Opening Day. By releasing Davis more than 15 days before the start of the regular season, the Giants were only responsible for 30 days termination pay. That checked in a little above $1.1MM.

Davis’ deal with the A’s brings his guaranteed money for the upcoming season around $3.6MM. If he hits all of his incentives, he could get to around $4.6MM in earnings. The end of his Giants tenure will cost Davis a few million dollars, although he’ll at least have a clear path to everyday reps.

Oakland was likely to go into the year with either Abraham Toro or Darell Hernaiz logging the majority of their third base work. Toro is a career .211/.282/.354 hitter who spent most of last season in Triple-A with the Brewers. Hernaiz is a talented prospect, but he has yet to make his big league debut. Even if Hernaiz hits his way to the majors this year, he could push defensive specialist Nick Allen for playing time at shortstop. The A’s grabbed Miguel Andújar off waivers from the Pirates early in the offseason. He’s still on the roster but has played mostly in the corner outfield over the past few seasons.

Davis should be a clear upgrade over that group. The 30-year-old (31 in April) has been an above-average hitter in each of the last five seasons. Last year’s .248/.325/.413 batting line was his worst rate production since he emerged in 2019. Still, he played in a career-high 144 games and connected on 18 home runs. Davis has above-average power and draws a fair number of walks. He strikes out at a higher than average rate, yet his .268/.352/.443 slash of the last five years could earn him a spot in the middle third of Mark Kotsay’s lineup.

With between five and six years of major league service, Davis will head back to free agency next offseason. The opportunity to play on an everyday basis is surely appealing as he tries to establish himself as the #3 third base option in a free agent class that’ll include Alex Bregman and, if he opts out, Chapman. Improving his defensive grades would be a big boost to his market value. Davis has typically rated as a fringy defender. Public metrics were split on his value last season. Defensive Runs Saved had him among the least effective third basemen at 11 runs below average in 915 2/3 innings. Statcast was a lot more impressed, rating him four runs better than par.

Davis also drew interest from the Mets this week. Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that he chose the A’s in part because of the guarantee that he’ll play on a regular basis. He reunites with former Giants teammates Ross Stripling, Alex Wood and Scott Alexander as veteran additions to the A’s clubhouse. As with any veteran joining a rebuilding team on a one-year deal, he’d be a clear trade candidate this summer if he’s playing at his typical level.

Oakland’s player payroll now sits around $61MM, as calculated by RosterResource. That is a little above last season’s approximate $57MM Opening Day mark but still sits last in MLB by a country mile. The A’s have a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move once the contract is finalized.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the A’s and Davis were in agreement. MassLive’s Chris Cotillo had previously suggested the A’s were showing interest in Davis. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported it was a one-year, $2.5MM guarantee with $1MM in performance bonuses.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Braves Option Bryce Elder; Reynaldo Lopez To Open Season As Fifth Starter

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The Braves announced Monday morning that they’ve optioned right-handers Bryce Elder and Huascar Ynoa to Triple-A Gwinnett. That follows last week’s option of righty AJ Smith-Shawver and closes the book on Atlanta’s fifth-starter competition. Offseason signee Reynaldo Lopez will open the season as the team’s fifth starter behind Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Chris Sale, tweets Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

While it’s looked quite likely for some time now that Lopez would get the spot, it’s nonetheless a scenario that would’ve sounded outlandish after the conclusion of the 2023 season. Elder faded down then stretch in the final couple months of the ’23 campaign but was an All-Star last July. Smith-Shawver rose from High-A to the big leagues in a matter of months last season. Lopez, meanwhile, moved to the bullpen early in the 2021 season with the White Sox and has worked as a reliever for the bulk of the past three seasons.

However, even at the time the Braves signed Lopez to a three-year, $30MM contract, they made clear that the plan was going to be to stretch the right-hander out as a rotation option. Atlanta scouts and evaluators are clearly bullish on the right-hander’s power arsenal and feel it can indeed still hold up in a starting capacity. Lopez started 73 games for the ChiSox from 2018-20, so he’s no stranger to the role, but the vast majority of his MLB success has come since moving to short relief stints.

Thus far in camp, he’s at least looked the part of a viable rotation piece. Spring stats should always be taken with a grain of salt, but through 16 2/3 frames Lopez hasn’t done much to hurt his chances. He’s posted a sharp 2.16 ERA with a 21% strikeout rate, 9.7% walk rate and 45.2% grounder rate. Elder has been tagged for 11 runs on 15 hits and six walk with 13 strikeouts through just 12 innings. Ynoa, who’s still making his way back from 2022 Tommy John surgery, was slowed early in camp by some shoulder soreness and only made his spring debut on Saturday, tossing one inning. Were it not for the shoulder issue, perhaps he’d have been more firmly in the mix this spring, but he didn’t have the chance to build up and will open the season as a depth option in Gwinnett.

Once Smith-Shawver was optioned a week ago, the competition was largely down to Elder and Lopez. It might seem surprising to push an All-Star out of the rotation in favor of a converted reliever, but after a brilliant start to his 2023 season, Elder limped to a dismal 5.75 ERA with just a 15.1% strikeout rate against a 10.4% walk rate over his final 72 innings of the year (14 starts).

Lopez, over the past three seasons, has pitched to a 3.14 ERA with a 26.7% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 39% ground-ball rate through 189 innings, most of which has come in a relief setting. He pushed his average fastball velocity up to a career-high 98.4 mph in that role last season, though he’ll likely see that number dip a bit over longer stints as a starter.

Lopez posted a 3.91 ERA in 32 starts for the ’18 White Sox but did so with shaky strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates that prompted metrics like FIP (4.63) and SIERA (4.92) to cast a much less favorable light on his work. The secondary numbers indeed served as a portent for regression; from 2019-20, Lopez was torched for a 5.52 ERA in 210 2/3 innings, thanks largely to pedestrian K-BB numbers and a sky-high 1.88 HR/9 mark.

If Lopez is able to break out as a starter, the three-year, $30MM contract he signed could well look like a bargain. If not, he’s proven over the past few seasons that he can be an impact late-inning reliever, so he could always be shifted back into a one-inning role and deepen an already excellent Atlanta bullpen that features Raisel Iglesias, Joe Jimenez, A.J. Minter, Pierce Johnson, Tyler Matzek, Dylan Lee and Lopez’s former White Sox teammate Aaron Bummer.

Astros Reportedly “Long-Shots” To Land Blake Snell

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The Astros have been the buzz of the baseball world this weekend following reporting that indicated the club was in “serious pursuit” of the top remaining free agent, reigning NL Cy Young award winner Blake Snell. Reporting from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale earlier today indicates that the club may be a “long-shot” to ultimately land the southpaw, however. Nightengale reports that the club has “balked” at the asking price from Snell’s camp, which he adds stands at a $60MM guarantee over two years that includes an opt-out following the 2024 season. Houston, Nightengale adds, is conscious of being pushed over an additional luxury tax threshold by a Snell deal with an AAV in the $30MM range. Nightengale goes on to suggest that the Giants currently appear to be the favorites for Snell’s services, though he makes clear that San Francisco has been waiting for Snell’s price to drop even as they’ve remained engaged with the southpaw.

It’s not necessarily a surprise that the Astros would be worried about stomaching a $30MM annual commitment for Snell’s services. The club is already in unprecedented territory with regards to its player payroll; Cot’s Baseball Contracts notes that Houston has never entered a season with a projected payroll above their $187MM figure from the 2021 season, but RosterResource projects the club to blow that figure out of the water this year with a whopping $240MM payroll entering the 2024 campaign. That figure reaches nearly $256MM for luxury tax purposes, just over $1MM shy of the second, $257MM tax threshold.

Virtually any addition to the club’s payroll at any point this season would push them past that level, but a more significant addition such as Snell would leave the club at risk of going over the third threshold, which stands at $277MM for the 2024 season. While the first two brackets of the luxury tax come with only financial considerations, the penalties get stiffer when a clubs surpasses the third threshold. Those penalties most notably include the club’s highest pick in the following year’s draft being pushed back ten places, which is further compounded by an associated cut to the club’s bonus pool for signing their draft picks that year. Given the elevated costs involved with a pursuit of Snell, it was hardly surprising when GM Dana Brown suggested that the club wasn’t interested in pursuing additional starting pitching this spring, even name-dropping Snell specifically as a player the club would “love to have” but didn’t expect to sign.

Of course, it’s hard to overstate just how impactful Snell could be for the Astros rotation even in spite of those ancillary concerns. Right-handers Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis García Jr. are both set to open the season on the injured list and miss considerable time this season. They’ll also be joined at least for the early days of the campaign by veteran ace Justin Verlander, whose start to the season has been delayed soreness in his right shoulder. Those injuries leave the club’s rotation depth in an tough spot entering the season, and a recent injury scare regarding Jose Urquidy has only exacerbated those concerns. KRPC2’s Ari Alexander reported recently that Urquidy has been dealing with “forearm stiffness” per a source, while manager Joe Espada told reporters yesterday that the right-hander has flown back to Houston from the club’s spring complex in Florida to meet with team doctors.

Losing Urquidy could leave the club to rely on depth options such as Hunter Brown, J.P. France, and Ronel Blanco behind a front-of-the-rotation duo featuring Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier, at least for the start of the season. Adding Snell to that mix would not only give the club much-needed additional pitching depth early in the season, but would also add an impactful, playoff-caliber arm to a rotation that saw each of Verlander, Valdez, and Javier take steps back in 2023 from the 2022 form that saw the group stand among the very best starting trios in baseball that year. While Snell certainly has flashed inconsistencies of his own throughout his career, posting a relatively pedestrian 3.85 ERA and 3.44 FIP from 2019 to 2022, he’s nonetheless ranged from a dependable mid-rotation arm to an elite, front-of-the-rotation flamethrower throughout his eight years in the majors and would be a surefire upgrade to an Astros club looking to make an eighth consecutive postseason appearance this fall.

On the other hand, Snell would provide all those same benefits to the Giants. San Francisco has had a busy offseason, bringing in Bob Melvin to replace Gabe Kapler in the managers’ chair while adding the likes of Matt Chapman, Jorge Soler, Jung Hoo Lee, and Jordan Hicks in free agency. With that being said, the club has done little to address a rotation mix that delivered the least innings among all major league clubs last year. Hicks has moved from the bullpen into the rotation since joining San Francisco, and the club could also receive a boost from trade acquisition Robbie Ray midseason upon his return from Tommy John surgery sometimes this summer. With Ray, Alex Cobb, and Tristan Beck all set to open the season on the injured list, however, it leaves the club with minimal certainty in the rotation behind staff ace Logan Webb.

Given how much the club would benefit from another front-of-the-rotation arm to pair with Webb, it’s not a surprise that the Giants continue to be involved in Snell’s market. Despite comments from club chairman Greg Johnson back in February that suggested the club planned to rely on young rotation arms such as Kyle Harrison and Keaton Winn entering the 2024 season, reporting has indicated that San Francisco has remained in the mix for Snell in recent weeks, though the club has signaled that it did not anticipate further major additions after signing Chapman earlier this month.

While it’s unclear how far Snell’s price would have to fall for San Francisco to pounce, the club’s books figure to have far more flexibility than those in Houston. RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of just $177MM entering the 2024 season, likely leaving ample room for the club to fit Snell into the budget. While the club’s luxury tax payroll stands at a somewhat higher $226MM figure, even an AAV approaching Snell’s reported $30MM asking price would leave the club just a touch under the second luxury tax threshold.

TJ Friedl Facing Extended Absence Due To Wrist Fracture

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Reds center fielder TJ Friedl was pulled from yesterday’s game with what the club initially termed a right wrist sprain, as noted by Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Since then, however, the club provided a far more dire update regarding Friedl’s status: the 28-year-old’s new diagnosis is a right wrist fracture that will keep him off the club’s Opening Day roster as he figures to miss an “extended period.” Per Wittenmyer, Friedl indicated to reporters this evening that he’ll have to wait for the bone to heal before he can resume baseball activities. While no timetable for Friedl’s return was specified, he expressed optimism that he play for the Reds at some point this year. He’ll be re-evaluated in three to four weeks to determine next steps in his rehab process.

The news is a major blow to the club’s chances in a competitive NL Central division this season. The 28-year-old was one of the club’s most reliable all-around contributors last year with a .279/.352/467 slash line in 138 games to go along with 27 stolen bases and strong defense in center field. That strong performance left Friedl in position to be one of the most crucial pieces in the club’s positional mix this season, particularly given the club’s relative lack of outfield depth in comparison to their famously deep infield mix. In Friedl’s absence, the club will likely turn to the likes of Will Benson and Stuart Fairchild in center field to open the season. That would open up playing time on the infield corners for the likes of Spencer Steer, Jake Fraley, and Jonathan India. Nick Martini and Bubba Thompson are among the club’s depth options in the outfield currently on the 40-man roster.

Between the loss of Friedl to injury and third baseman Noelvi Marte’s 80-game suspension following a positive test for the performance enhancing substance Boldenone, the Reds figure to enter the season with substantially less depth on the positional side than expected entering the season. That will mean additional opportunities- and additional pressure- for the club’s bevy of young infielders, which includes the likes of Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, each of whom appear likely to get everyday at-bats alongside the likes of Jeimer Candelario, India, and Steer in the club’s infield mix while Friedl and Marte are unavailable. The club also has a handful of non-roster options who could provide additional infield depth coming off the bench, such as Tony Kemp and Josh Harrison.

While those internal options all figure to be under consideration for the Reds, Wittenmyer indicated that president of baseball operations Nick Krall didn’t rule out looking outside of the organization for additional help on the positional side in light of Friedl’s injury. The Reds made clear how much they valued their position player depth this winter when they not only decided against trading Jonathan India despite him being seemingly squeezed out of the club’s everyday lineup, but doubled down on that decision by adding Candelario to the infield mix on a three-year deal. Those decisions have already paid off in a big way for the club by softening the blow of losing Marte and Friedl before the 2024 season has even begun, and it would be understandable if Krall was interested in finding ways to further bolster the club’s depth.

With that being said, the Pirates’ recent deal with veteran outfielder Michael A. Taylor took the last surefire center fielder off the free agent market last week, meaning the Reds would likely be forced to look to the trade market if they hope to improve their current outfield mix. It would be a surprise to see Cincinnati swing a major move for another bat, though it’s certainly possible the club could look to add a veteran currently in camp with another club on a non-roster deal who isn’t rostered by his current organization, either by way of a minor trade before Spring Training comes to a close or perhaps simply by waiting for them to trigger an opt-out clause and return to the open market. Oscar Mercado, Tim Locastro, Brett Phillips, Rafael Ortega, Trayce Thompson, and Albert Almora are among the many veteran center fielders currently in camp with other clubs on minor league deals who could be speculative fits for a bench role with the Reds should they be made available.

Padres To Name Jackson Merrill Opening Day Center Fielder

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The Padres are poised to name top prospect Jackson Merrill the club’s Opening Day center fielder, per a report from MLB Network’s Jon Morosi. The news comes just days before the club is set to face the Dodgers in a two-game regular season set in South Korea as part of MLB’s Seoul Series. Game 1 of that set is scheduled for 5:05am CT Wednesday morning, or 7:05pm local time that evening. The club will need to select Merrill’s contract before then, but won’t need to make a corresponding 40-man roster move as the roster currently stands at 36.

Merrill, 21 in April, was the club’s first-round pick in the 2021 draft and is a consensus top-20 prospect in the sport. The youngster is something of a surprising choice for the role, at least on paper. He’s not yet played a game above Double-A in his big league career, having slashed a solid but unspectacular .277/.326/.444 in 114 games split between the High-A and Double-A levels last year. Perhaps even more importantly, Merrill had never appeared in center field in a professional game until camp opened last month. His professional outfield experience to that point consisted of 45 innings of work in left field that season. Prior to that, his professional work had come almost exclusively at shortstop, though he also made brief cameos at both first and second base.

With all that being said, the club’s decision to go with Merrill in center field on Opening Day is certainly a defensible one. Prospect evaluators around the game are unanimous in their belief in Merrill’s talent, with Baseball America lauding him as a future middle-of-the-order threat who figures to have the power for 30 homers a year while Fangraphs describes him as having “one of the prettiest swings in the minors” with excellent contact abilities. Furthermore, while his lack of upper-level reps at the plate and professional time in center field will certainly raise some eyebrows, Merrill has clearly done everything he can to prove himself ready for a big league opportunity this spring. In 40 plate appearances across 13 games during camp, Merrill slashed an excellent .351/.400/.595 while playing solid defense in center.

Of course, the decision to roster Merrill as the club’s Opening Day center fielder is also the results of a host of other decisions outside of Merrill’s control. Chief among them is the club choosing to part ways with superstar Juan Soto alongside Trent Grisham in a trade with the Yankees that removed two of the club’s three Opening Day starters in the outfield last year from the roster back in December. Since then, the club has been tied to external outfield options including Michael A. Taylor, Kevin Kiermaier, and Tommy Pham. The likes of Taylor and Kiermaier have since signed elsewhere, however, and while there may be some momentum toward a deal with Pham, the 36-year-old veteran hasn’t appeared in center field on a regular basis since 2018, with just 15 starts up the middle in the years since then.

That lack of clear options for the center field job led the Padres to look toward their internal, non-roster pieces for their next center fielder. Fellow prospect Jakob Marsee as well as veterans such as Oscar Mercado and Tim Locastro all joined Merrill as potential solutions in center when camp began last month, though of that group only Mercado was able to keep up with Merrill’s blistering performance this spring and the club recently tipped their hand regarding their decision by including only Merrill, corner bats Jose Azocar and Jurickson Profar, and right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. as outfielders on their 31-man travel roster for the Seoul Series.

It’s possible Merrill won’t be the only rookie with minimal upper-minors experience on the club’s Opening Day lineup, as the club also included Graham Pauley on their travel roster for the coming series. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin indicated last week that Pauley was likely in position to fill in for veteran third baseman Manny Machado at the hot corner to open the season, as Machado will begin the season at DH while he recovers from elbow surgery, which he underwent back in October. Pauley, 23, was a 13th-round pick by the Padres in the 2022 draft and enjoyed a breakout season last year as he slashed a whopping .308/.393/.539 in 127 games split between the Single-A, High-A, and Double-A levels.

Eury Perez To Undergo Imaging Due To Elbow Soreness

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The Marlins announced this afternoon that right-hander Eury Perez is experiencing elbow soreness and is set to undergo imaging and testing over the course of the coming days. Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds that part of the club’s diagnostic process will be a trip to Texas, where Perez will meet with noted orthopedic surgeon Dr. Keith Meister. Earlier this week, Perez was pulled from a Spring Training start after just 14 pitches due to discomfort caused by a broken fingernail.

It’s a brutal blow for the Marlins, who have been ravaged by rotation injuries this offseason. Sandy Alcantara underwent Tommy John surgery back in the fall and is set to miss the entire 2024 campaign, and since then both Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera have dealt with shoulder issues that could relegate them to the injured list to begin the season. Now Perez appears all but certain to open the regular season on the shelf as well. While the severity of the 20-year-old phenom’s specific issue is uncertain, concerns regarding the elbow are particularly ominous due to the possibility of a lengthy absence.

Elbow surgeries can often wipe out a pitcher’s entire season, as is the case with Alcantara, and even non-surgical rehab can take a pitcher away from game action for months at a time, as was recently demonstrated by Yankees ace Gerrit Cole. Even in the best case scenario, the time spent determining the extent of Perez’s injury figures to set him back as he looks to build up his pitch count for the regular season. Perez’s aforementioned fingernail issue has limited his ability to prepare for the coming season this spring, and with just two weeks until Opening Day and the right-hander likely to be sidelined for at least a few more days, it’s hard to imagine him being able to avoid at least a brief stint on the injured list.

With Perez, Cabrera, and Garrett all at least at risk of joining Alcantara on the injured list to open the season, that leaves southpaw Jesus Luzardo as the only member of the club’s on-paper starting rotation who is currently expected to be available on Opening Day. Southpaw A.J. Puk was already widely expected to begin the season in the club’s rotation after the club made the decision to stretch the lefty out despite his success as a high-leverage arm in the club’s bullpen last year, and the injuries also seem likely to open the door for the likes of Trevor Rogers and Ryan Weathers to step into rotation roles as the season begins. That would still leave the fifth spot in the club’s rotation vacant, however, though right-hander Bryan Hoeing represents one option already on the 40-man roster and the club has plenty of potential non-roster options at its disposal including Yonny Chirinos, Vladimir Gutierrez, and Devin Smeltzer.

Of course, none of those potential depth options can be reasonably expected to deliver the sort of impact that Perez offers. The righty, 21 next month, was a consensus top-15 prospect in all of baseball when he made his debut for Miami last year, and he immediately flashed the front-of-the-rotation potential that his prospect pedigree suggested as he dazzled with a microscopic 1.34 ERA and a solid 3.02 FIP in his first nine starts in the majors. He struck out 29.2% of batters faced during that stretch, and while midsummer struggles led the club to limit his workload down the stretch the youngster nonetheless features prominently in the club’s plans for the 2024 season and beyond. So much so, in fact, that Perez was generally regarded as the club’s sole untouchable as they fielded trade offers on the likes of Garrett, Luzardo, and Cabrera during the offseason.

The rotation injuries have been a major blow to a Marlins club that is looking to build upon a surprising postseason appearance in 2023. The club’s starting pitchers ranked top ten in the majors last year in ERA, FIP, and fWAR while striking out the fourth-most batters in all of baseball. That dominant run prevention apparatus was key to the club’s success last year as the lineup lagged behind, ranking just 20th in the majors with a collective wRC+ of 94. With so many injuries impacting the club’s rotation already this year, the team will need strong performance from the likes of Luis Arraez, Josh Bell, Jake Burger, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. if the club hopes to return to postseason contention in 2024.

Pirates Sign Michael A. Taylor

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March 16: The Pirates officially announced Taylor’s signing today, and placed Moreta on the 60-day IL to create room for the outfielder on the 40-man roster. Moreta’s move to the IL is hardly a surprise after a ligament injury his elbow sidelined him for the foreseeable future earlier this month.

March 15: The Pirates are making a late addition to their outfield. Pittsburgh is reportedly in agreement with center fielder Michael A. Taylor on a one-year, $4MM contract. The outfielder is a client of the ALIGND Sports Agency. Pittsburgh has not yet announced the move and will need to open a spot on their 40-man roster once the deal is finalized. They may be able to do so by moving Dauri Moreta to the 60-day injured list.

Taylor, 33 later this month, has long been a defensive standout in the big leagues. He debuted back in 2014, giving him a decade of experience to this point. In that time, he has racked up 72 Defensive Runs Saved, 55 Outs Above Average and a grade of 41.1 from Ultimate Zone Rating. Each of those numbers place him in the top 11 among outfielders in that span.

Though he’s now into his 30s, he has continued to put up positive numbers in those categories, with 5 DRS, 8 OAA and 2.8 UZR last year with the Twins. He’s played all three outfield positions but the vast majority of that playing time has come in center: 6,428 innings up the middle compared to 373 1/3 in left and 162 2/3 in right.

His hitting has been less straightforward, as he has generally provided a bit of home run power but with limited on-base ability and some concerning strikeout levels. He’s coming off a year in which he hit 21 homers, a personal best, but his 6.7% walk rate was subpar. His 33.5% strikeout rate was much higher than league average and a personal high, outside of his cup-of-coffee debut in 2014 and an injury-marred 2019.

That led to a lopsided batting line of .220/.278/.442, which translates to a wRC+ of 96. Though that indicates he was 4% below league average at the plate, he also stole 13 bases and provided the aforementioned quality defense. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 1.7 wins above replacement while Baseball Reference had him at 1.9.

It was reported earlier this month that Taylor was viewing himself as comparable to players like Kevin Kiermaier and Harrison Bader. That’s a fairly reasonable comp since those guys are also defensive stalwarts in center field with average-ish offense.

Unfortunately, this offseason has been harsh to the players left standing at this late stage of the offseason. Various clubs have spent to their preferred comfort levels, with many pointing to significant competitive balance tax bills or uncertainty around their TV revenues. As such, various players have recently settled for modest deals that were undoubtedly below their expectations coming into the winter.

Since the start of February, position players like Adam Duvall, Enrique Hernández, Gio Urshela, Tim Anderson, Amed Rosario, Randal Grichuk, Joey Gallo and others have signed for guarantees of $5MM or less. Kiermaier and Bader each got $10.5MM around the New Year but Taylor lingered on the open market and will have to settle for a deal well below that.

Taylor drew fairly widespread interest this winter, with clubs like the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Reds, Dodgers, Angels, Padres and Twins connected to him at various points throughout the offseason. But many of those clubs went in different directions as time went on. The Jays brought back Kiermaier, the Red Sox traded for Tyler O’Neill, the Dodgers got both Enrique and Teoscar Hernández, the Angels added Aaron Hicks and the Twins grabbed Manuel Margot from the Dodgers.

In the end, it will be the Pirates who will be the beneficiary of Taylor staying on the market for so long. Last year, the Bucs moved Jack Suwinski from being primarily a corner outfield guy to center field. The results were mixed, as he was graded as being 10 runs below average by DRS but three above by OAA, while he got a mark of -1.7 from UZR.

That move pushed Bryan Reynolds into left field but now perhaps Taylor’s signing will push Suwinski over to right field. Coming into today, the Bucs had a muddled mix of options for right field, including Connor Joe, Edward Olivares and Joshua Palacios. Joe can play a bit of first base and may platoon with Rowdy Tellez there, while Olivares and Palacios each have options and could either be on the big league bench or in the minors. The Pirates were connected to Tommy Pham earlier today but that is presumably off the table now with Taylor in the fold.

It’s also possible to envision some platoon possibilities in the outfield, with Taylor hitting from the right side. Taylor has hit .256/.310/.436 against lefties in his career for a wRC+ of 99, but the split was even more drastic last year, as he hit .252/.313/.602 versus southpaws for a wRC+ of 146. Suwinski, a lefty swinger, has a .234/.344/.488 slash in his career against righties but just .164/.263/.300 against righties. Those splits lead to wRC+ numbers of 125 and 57, respectively.

How manager Derek Shelton plays it remains to be seen, but the addition of Taylor at a modest price certainly upgrades the club’s outfield defense. Taylor isn’t an amazing hitter but was great against lefties last year and has real pop in his bat when he makes contact, plus an ability to steal a base here and there.

The move brings the Pirates’ payroll commitments to just over $85MM, per RosterResource. That’s the lowest payroll in the league apart from the actively-moving Athletics, but it’s nonetheless a jump for the Bucs. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, they opened last year at $73MM, which was itself a jump from the two years prior.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Pirates had reached agreement with Taylor on a one-year, $4MM deal.

Gerrit Cole Recommended For Non-Surgical Rehab On Elbow

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March 16: Cole will be shut down for the next three to four weeks before re-evaluating his condition, the Yankees ace told reporters, including Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. He added that it is too soon to determine a date for his return (per Hoch). The reigning AL Cy Young winner is nursing some nerve inflammation and edema, which he is planning to treat with “rest and recovery.” He does not anticipate getting any PRP injections.

March 14: The Yankees and their fans can breathe a sigh of relief. Jon Heyman and Mark W. Sanchez of the New York Post report that defending AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole is expected to avoid surgery after further evaluation on his ailing elbow. The recommendation is for a treatment program of rest and non-surgical rehab.

Heyman and Sanchez report that Cole is expected to be out for roughly one to two months. Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that the timeline for a return to MLB action should be closer to 10-12 weeks. In either case, surgery isn’t on the table at present and the Yankees should get their ace back within the season’s first half.

That was the initial expectation. Team doctors reportedly identified the issue as elbow inflammation and concluded that Cole’s ulnar collateral ligament was intact. He nevertheless visited noted orthopedic surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache for additional testing today. It seems that in-person evaluation confirmed the initial indication that Cole has not sustained any UCL damage.

It’s a positive development given the concern any time a pitcher, especially one at Cole’s level, heads for an MRI on his throwing elbow. Still, the Yankees are going to have to navigate the early portion of the schedule without him. If the timeline checks in closer to 10-12 weeks, he probably wouldn’t make his season debut until June. There’s a chance he winds up on the 60-day injured list.

There’s obviously no way to replace a pitcher of Cole’s caliber, but his absence puts additional pressure on the rotation depth. Carlos Rodón, Marcus Stroman and Nestor Cortes project as the top three arms in the season-opening rotation. Clarke Schmidt is penciled into the fourth spot. There’s not a clear #5 starter at the moment. Prospect Clayton Beeter is on the 40-man roster, as are Yoendrys Gómez and Luis Gil. The latter two were optioned to minor league camp in the first week of March, suggesting they’re a bit further down the depth chart. Chase Hampton and Will Warren are not on the 40-man roster, but they’re upper level starting pitching prospects with more advanced control than Beeter has shown in the minors. Luke Weaver has plenty of starting experience and returned to the Yankees via $2MM free agent deal. He’s coming off a 6.40 ERA season.

The Yankees could benefit from adding veteran stability to the back end. They recently checked in with Michael Lorenzen, arguably the #3 starter still on the free agent market. Lorezen certainly doesn’t have the upside of either of the top two unsigned pitchers, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, but he’d come at nowhere near the cost. That’s an obvious concern for a franchise that would pay a 110% tax on further spending.

If New York expected Cole to miss the entire season, perhaps that’d have increased their urgency to land one of Snell or Montgomery regardless of the money. That seems less likely with the Yankees anticipating Cole’s return in late May or early June, but a mid-tier arm like Lorenzen or Mike Clevinger could remain in play.

Astros In “Serious Pursuit” Of Blake Snell

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The Astros are facing various questions around the health of their rotation and are now in “serious pursuit” of Blake Snell, according to a report from Ken Rosenthal and Chandler Rome of The Athletic.

At this point, it’s unclear if any kind of deal is close but it’s a noteworthy development and resembles an earlier situation for the Astros. Back in January, their bullpen took a hit when Kendall Graveman required season-ending shoulder surgery. Astros general manager Dana Brown initially downplayed the club’s desire to go out and sign free agents to address the problem but the club signed closer Josh Hader a few days later.

In the intervening two months, a lot has changed with the rotation. The Astros already knew that Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis García Jr. were going to be starting the year on the injured list, as both underwent elbow surgeries last summer, but this spring has seen a couple more dominos fall. Justin Verlander has been slowed by some right shoulder soreness which doesn’t seem terribly serious but it delayed him enough that he’ll start the season on the injured list. Earlier today, José Urquidy departed his start early due to some pain in his right elbow.

If Urquidy needs to miss time, then the Opening Day rotation would project to include Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown in the front three spots. J.P. France was also slowed by a shoulder issue this spring but seems to perhaps be on track to take over a spot at the back end. That would still leave one rotation spot open and Houston is a bit thin in terms of options to step in there.

Ronel Blanco has just 58 1/3 innings of major league work on his ledger and was only recently moved from being a primary reliever to more of a swing role. Brandon Bielak has a 4.54 ERA in his 174 1/3 innings but with uninspiring peripherals, including an 18.9% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate. Shawn Dubin has just nine innings of major league experience.

It seems the club is considering a notable strike in free agency to get out of this injury hole, similar to their move to grab Hader after Graveman went down. Brown again downplayed the club’s desire to add pitching, including Snell, though that was before Urquidy’s injury surfaced.

Some may question whether Snell is ready to help a club like the Astros since he hasn’t been pitching in official spring games and Opening Day is less than two weeks away. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Snell recently threw 60 pitches over four simulated innings to try to get ready outside of official Spring Training contests. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com relays the same info, adding that scouts from the Giants and Astros were in attendance.

Snell has lingered on the open market far longer than anyone anticipated coming off a Cy Young season. He turned in a 2.25 ERA over 180 innings with San Diego a year ago. He surely envisioned a long-term pact at the start of the offseason, but a deal to his liking has obviously yet to materialize. At this point, it looks as if he’ll follow in the path of Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman and turn to a short-term guarantee with opt-outs. Rosenthal and Rome report that he is believed to be seeking a three-year guarantee with a $30-32MM annual salary that would allow him to test free agency after each of the next two seasons.

The cost for the Astros would go beyond whatever it takes to get Snell to sign. They’re into luxury tax territory. RosterResource calculates their 2024 CBT number around $256MM. A contract anywhere near Snell’s expected price would vault them beyond the $257MM second penalization and the third threshold at $277MM.

Houston did not exceed the competitive balance tax a year ago, however. Unlike some other reported Snell suitors (most notably, the Yankees), the Astros are not facing exorbitant fees as repeat payors. They’d be responsible for a 20% tax on their next $1.3MM in spending, followed by a 32% tax on the following $20MM ($6.4MM) and a 62.5% hit on the ensuing $20MM. Signing Snell to a contract with a $32MM average annual value would come with an approximate $13.3MM tax bill for this year.

A Snell signing would also deal a small but not completely insignificant hit to the farm system because he rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres. The Astros forfeited their second-round pick (#64 overall) in the upcoming draft and relinquished $500K of international signing bonus space to sign Hader. They’d need to surrender another $500K from the international pool and their third-round pick (#102) for Snell. Meanwhile, pushing past the $277MM luxury threshold — which would be all but assured for a Snell signing — would move back Houston’s first-round pick in the 2025 draft by 10 spots.

Cardinals Extend Manager Oli Marmol

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The Cardinals announced a two-year contract extension with manager Oli Marmol on Friday afternoon. The deal covers the 2025-26 seasons and ensured that Marmol, who had previously been slated to enter the final season of his current contract, will not operate as a lame duck.

Still just 37 years old, Marmol has managed to a 164-160 record since taking the reins following the team’s surprising dismissal of former skipper Mike Shildt. That includes a 93-69, division-winning performance in his debut managerial campaign, as well as a 71-91, last-place finish in 2023.

Marmol has spent his entire baseball career in the Cardinals organization. The Cards selected him with a sixth-round pick back in 2007, but Marmol’s minor league career lasted only four seasons before he moved into a coaching role within the system. He rose through the minor league ranks, coaching and managing at multiple stops, before being added to the Cardinals’ big league coaching staff as their first base coach for the 2017 campaign. Marmol held that job for two seasons before becoming Shildt’s bench coach for the next three years.

Marmol has, at times, drawn criticism for his handling of players. He and since-traded outfielder Tyler O’Neill clashed early last season when Marmol publicly called out O’Neill for not hustling home from third base. O’Neill took exception both to the substance of the comment as well as the public nature of the quip, suggesting that any conversation on the matter “could have been had in-house” and that the situation “should have been handled a little differently in my opinion.” Marmol also publicly stated early in the season that Willson Contreras would be removed from the starting catcher’s role — a decision that was reversed just a week later. O’Neill said in an appearance on Foul Territory earlier this year that he and Marmol grew to respect one another “at an arm’s length” and that his time with the club ended “on good terms” (video link).

Cardinals brass clearly doesn’t view last year’s disappointing results or the public spat with O’Neill as a reflection of Marmol’s ability (or lack thereof) to steer the team in the long term. He’ll now be locked up through the 2026 campaign, not only offering the team some stability but avoiding the lame-duck status that would have him routinely fielding questions and speculation about his job security throughout the upcoming season.

MLB.com’s John Denton was first to report that Marmol had signed an extension.

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