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Padres, Dodgers, Giants Interested In Blake Snell

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The Padres, Dodgers and Giants are all interested in free-agent left-hander Blake Snell, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post in a discussion with Lauren Shehadi of MLB Network (video courtesy of MLB Network on X).

Snell, 31 next month, is fairly unique and will likely have wide variances in how he’s valued by clubs. On the positive side, he just finished 2023 with a 2.25 earned run average over his 32 starts. His 31.5% strikeout rate was second among qualified hurlers, trailing only Spencer Strider. He has a decent shot at winning a Cy Young award tonight, which would be the second of his career after winning it with the Rays in 2018.

But Snell has somehow managed to accomplish all of that despite giving out many free passes. He has walked 10.9% of batters faced in his career and that figure was cranked up to 13.3% in 2023. For context, the major league average in the most recent season was 8.6%. The strikeouts surely helped him prevent many of those runners from scoring, but so did a strong 44.4% ground ball rate. But maintaining his .256 batting average on balls in play and 86.7% strand rate would be hard to do over an extended timeline, which is why his 3.44 FIP and 4.06 SIERA suggest his ERA was perhaps flattering him by more than a full run.

He’s also not exactly a workhorse, partly due to some injuries in his career but also due to those walks preventing him from pitching deep into games. He tossed 180 2/3 innings in 2018 and a flat 180 in 2023, with those two seasons being his highest such tallies. Each other season of his career has seen him come in under 130 frames.

Despite some concerning elements in his profile, free agents with multiple Cy Young trophies don’t grow on trees and Snell could be just that in a few hours’ time. Earlier this month, MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents predicted Snell could get a contract of seven years and $200MM. That’s based on the fact that pitchers with the potential for dominance can still get paid, even if it’s not a volume proposition. Carlos Rodón got six years and $162MM with a longer injury track record than Snell and never once getting to the 180-inning mark.

That will likely limit Snell’s market to the clubs with deeper pockets, but it sounds like he is still plenty popular. A return to the Padres would make plenty of sense from a strict baseball perspective. The club obviously likes him since they acquired him three years ago, giving up four prospects in the process. The club also has significant rotation needs, with Snell’s free agency coinciding with that of Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo and Nick Martinez. That leaves the Friars with Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish as the only locks for their 2024 rotation.

The financial fit would be a little harder to see, however. The club is reportedly set to cut payroll significantly for next year, going from the $250MM range to the $200MM range. Roster Resource currently pegs their payroll for next year at $198MM, leaving very little wiggle room. The club is reportedly shopping reliever Scott Barlow and has at least some openness to Juan Soto trades, but the budget is obviously tight. Moving Soto for major league-ready pieces and then signing Snell with the money saved would be one way to compete again in 2024, but there would be plenty of risk in that path.

Like the Padres, the Dodgers have a reduced starting staff. Julio Urías, Clayton Kershaw and Lance Lynn are all now free agents. It’s unclear what the future holds for Urías given an ongoing domestic violence investigation, which could lead to his second such suspension of his career. Kershaw recently underwent shoulder surgery and has an uncertain path forward, perhaps having to miss the first half of 2024. Lynn’s home run troubles were pronounced enough that the Dodgers probably don’t want him back. Among guys still on the roster, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin are both recovering from surgery and may miss all of 2024.

That leaves them with Walker Buehler, who missed all of 2023 due to his own surgery rehab, and then a batch of guys who were rookies coming into 2023: Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Michael Grove, Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone. There’s also Nick Frasso and Landon Knack, who were just added to the roster yesterday, but adding some proven MLB arms into the mix is a sensible path forward. Heyman lists them as one of many clubs that are looking for multiple starters this winter.

Their payroll situation is far more pleasant than that of the Padres, as Roster Resource has them at just $142MM right now, along with a CBT number of $159MM. Non-tendering Ryan Yarbrough and Yency Almonte would cut both of those figures by over $5MM. It’s unknown how high they want to take the budget in 2024 but they’ve been as high as $280MM in the past, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Even if they want to stay under the luxury tax in 2024, the base threshold is $237MM next year, meaning they have around $80MM in wiggle room.

However, they may end up using a big chunk of that on Shohei Ohtani, with many observers considering them the most likely landing spot for the two-way superstar. Signing a player like Snell would also go against their track record. Despite their big payrolls, they haven’t really spent wildly on long-term deals for pitchers. In the past decade, they gave an eight-year deal to Kenta Maeda, but with a minimal guarantee of just $25MM. Since the Zack Greinke signing way back in 2012, they haven’t given a free agent pitcher more than $50MM.

The Giants also have some money to spend and seem motivated to make a big splash. Roster Resource has their 2024 payroll at $147MM and their CBT calculation at $170MM. They’ve topped out at $200MM in past seasons, per Cot’s, but might be willing to push farther this winter. Recent attempts to land star players have fallen short, with the club just missing on guys like Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa. It is expected that they will be motivated to get something splashy done this time around and could be quite aggressive in trying to do so.

President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi already spoke about the club’s plans for adding to the rotation, which makes sense given the question marks behind Logan Webb, and Heyman says they are also one of the clubs looking for multiple starting this winter. They picked up their option on Alex Cobb for 2024 but he will be coming back from hip surgery. Anthony DeSclafani and Ross Stripling will each be coming off of disappointing seasons in 2023 while guys like Kyle Harrison and Keaton Winn are fairly unproven.

Broadly speaking, the demand for starting pitching is high, with Heyman reporting that there are eight teams looking to add multiple pitchers this winter. Not all of them will have the money and/or the appetite for Snell but it seems like general the market conditions could be working in his favor.

Brewers Name Pat Murphy Manager

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November 15: The Brewers officially announced Murphy’s hiring today.

November 13: The Brewers appear to have settled on their new manager. Milwaukee is expected to promote longtime bench coach Pat Murphy, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Murphy will replace longtime manager Craig Counsell after his departure to the Cubs.

Milwaukee’s managerial search proved to be a short one, ultimately concluding just one week after Counsell officially departed for Chicago. In that time, the Brewers reportedly considered several candidates in addition to Murphy during the short process, including Blue Jays bench coach Don Mattingly, Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough, 14-year MLB veteran Rickie Weeks and Astros hitting coach Troy Snitker.

Their reported list of candidates also included a pair of names attached to the other managerial vacancies around the league at the time: Astros then-bench coach Joe Espada, who has since been promoted to the managerial gig in Houston, as well as Padres senior advisor Mike Shildt, who is considered a potential favorite to replace Bob Melvin in San Diego. Ultimately, the Brewers decided to go with Murphy, who many around the game had speculated could consider joining Counsell as bench coach in Chicago if not promoted in Milwaukee.

Murphy, 64, has never been formally hired for the manager’s role with a big league organization but has plenty of experience managing in baseball nonetheless. He ran the Padres for 96 games on an interim basis in 2015 after Bud Black was dismissed that June. Murphy also spent more than 20 years as a head coach in college baseball for Arizona State and Notre Dame. Now, he’ll get his first proper managerial opportunity in the major leagues, stepping into Counsell’s shoes in the Milwaukee dugout after the pair worked closely for eight seasons.

He’ll inherit a roster that figures to be in flux this offseason. Though the Brewers won 92 games and an NL Central crown in 2023 en route to their fifth playoff appearance in the past six seasons, Counsell’s departure combined with the impending free agencies of ace right-hander Corbin Burnes and shortstop Willy Adames have Milwaukee’s front office potentially contemplating major changes to the roster. Further complicating the club’s offseason plans is the status of Burnes’s fellow ace Brandon Woodruff, who underwent shoulder surgery earlier in the offseason and is expected to miss most or perhaps even all of the 2024 season, though he hopes to be back sometime next summer.

Tumultuous as the coming offseason might be, the outlook in Milwaukee isn’t entirely bleak. Outfielder Jackson Chourio is widely considered one of the top two prospects in the entire sport. The club’s farm system sports three other top 100 prospects per MLB Pipeline. Those prospects could help to supplement a core of quality players at the big league level that includes catcher William Contreras, right-hander Freddy Peralta, closer Devin Williams, and outfielders Christian Yelich and Garrett Mitchell, among others. Even if Burnes and Adames are dealt this offseason, the club has the pieces to remain competitive in a relatively weak NL Central division if they choose to supplement the roster rather than engage in a larger teardown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Padres Owner Peter Seidler Passes Away

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The Padres have announced that owner and chairman Peter Seidler has passed away at the age of 63.

“The Padres organization mourns the passing of our beloved Chairman and owner, Peter Seidler,” said Padres CEO Erik Greupner. “Today, our love and prayers encircle Peter’s family as they grieve the loss of an extraordinary husband, father, son, brother, uncle, and friend. Peter was a kind and generous man who was devoted to his wife, children, and extended family. He also consistently exhibited heartfelt compassion for others, especially those less fortunate. His impact on the city of San Diego and the baseball world will be felt for generations. His generous spirit is now firmly embedded in the fabric of the Padres. Although he was our Chairman and owner, Peter was at his core a Padres fan. He will be dearly missed.”

The club also announced that they will open the Home Plate Gate at Petco Park beginning this afternoon for those who wish to gather to pay their respects. Free parking will be available at Tailgate Lot. Seidler has been battling an illness for months but his family has requested that the cause of death remain private at this time, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

Seidler bought a majority stake of the Padres in November of 2020. He was already part of the ownership group but was approved at that time by the 29 other owners to be the control person in San Diego. By doing so, he was following in the footsteps of his grandfather Walter O’Malley, who owned the Dodgers from 1950 to 1979 and moved them from Brooklyn to Los Angeles.

Once he took control of the Padres, Seidler quickly earned a reputation as one of the boldest and most aggressive owners in the sport. Per the calculations of Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Padres spent much of the first 20 years of this century with payrolls near the bottom of the league and never higher than the middle. But they have been in the top 10 in each of the past three seasons, getting as high as third in 2023. That period has seen them five nine-figure deals to star players like Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts and Joe Musgrove while also making headline-grabbing trades for Juan Soto and Yu Darvish.

The on-field results have been mixed. After making the postseason in 2020, the Friars had high hopes for 2021 but disappointed with a 79-83 record. They finally broke through in 2022, going 89-73 and making the playoffs in a full season for the first time since 2006. They knocked off the Mets and the Dodgers in the postseason before getting eliminated by the Phillies in the NLCS.

2023 was another disappointment, as the club slid to 82-80 and just missed the playoffs. But on the heels of the 2022 campaign and more spending coming into the year, excitement in San Diego was clearly at a high. 2023 saw the club set a franchise record for attendance, per Dennis Lin of The Athletic. However, it appears that the club’s momentum was fading as the 2023-2024 offseason approached.

The ongoing bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, which operates Bally Sports regional networks, led to Major League Baseball taking over the club’s broadcasts in May. The club reportedly took out a $50MM loan to cover payroll during the season and were reportedly planning to reduce spending this winter. That has led to widespread speculation that the club would consider trading a star like Soto as a cost-cutting move.

It was reported by multiple outlets in September, including the Associated Press, that Seidler was a two-time cancer survivor and he underwent an unspecified medical procedure at that time. It’s unknown if the internal structure of the club changed in recent months with Seidler’s ongoing health situation, but regardless, questions will eventually have to be answered about who is now calling the shots and what the club’s path forward is.

Those questions can be left for another day. Today, the baseball world is mourning an owner who seemed beloved in all corners of the sport. In a few short years, he turned the Padres from a basement-dwelling afterthought into a star-laden club that gave the residents of San Diego pride and excitement. We at MLB Trade Rumors join the rest of the baseball world in sending our condolences to his family, friends and loved ones.

Latest On Shohei Ohtani’s Free Agent Timeline

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An offseason defined by Shohei Ohtani’s free agency hasn’t been especially active within the first couple weeks. For most of the game’s top spenders, the winter may well be defined by whether they land the two-way superstar.

Those clubs may not have to wait long to learn the answer. Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote this morning that teams involved in the Ohtani market believe the expected AL MVP might make his decision early, potentially before the Winter Meetings begin on December 4.

Despite that possibility, there haven’t been many teams substantively linked to Ohtani. That’s by design, as it seems his camp isn’t interested in spotlighting his free agent process. Passan writes that clubs pursuing the three-time All-Star believe that if word of a sit-down with Ohtani were made public, “it will be held against the team.”

Even in the absence of substantive reports of teams meeting with Ohtani, it’s not hard to identify the likelier suitors. The incumbent Angels have made no secret of their hope of keeping him around. Teams like the Padres and Cubs have been mentioned in more speculative fashion.

Passan unsurprisingly lists the Dodgers, Rangers and Red Sox as teams likely to be involved. Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto danced around an Ohtani question at last week’s GM Meetings but acknowledged the Seattle front office would “presumably” need to try to value a free agent who is without precedent. Dipoto subsequently indicated the team was open to bringing in a designated hitter, saying they’d “love to have a full-time DH, a banger who just goes out and bangs” (link via Daniel Kramer of MLB.com).

The Giants are clearly searching for a star player. Both New York franchises figure to be involved. Passan indicates that the Blue Jays, not as frequently speculated as an Ohtani landing spot because of geography, could look for a way to make a splash this offseason (although he doesn’t specifically link Toronto to Ohtani beyond what seems a loosely speculative tie). Other teams could kick around ways to get involved on a player this unique. It’d be a real surprise if he didn’t land with a club accustomed to running a player payroll in the upper third of MLB, though.

Ohtani officially rejected a qualifying offer from the Angels this afternoon. That doesn’t affect his chances of returning to Anaheim. He was never going to consider a $20.325MM salary. Having to relinquish a draft choice and potentially international signing bonus room isn’t much of a factor for a player of this magnitude. Organizations considering a record-shattering contract may know within the next few weeks whether they’ll get that opportunity.

Brandon Hyde, Skip Schumaker Named Managers Of The Year

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The Baseball Writers Association of America announced the results of the Manager of the Year balloting. Miami’s Skip Schumaker and Baltimore’s Brandon Hyde were the respective winners in each league. It’s the first such honor for both.

That’s apparent in Schumaker’s case, as the 43-year-old takes home the hardware for his first season on the job. The Marlins hired him off the Cardinals’ coaching staff last offseason. Miami was coming off a 69-93 showing but improved by 15 games in Schumaker’s first year. The Fish went 84-78 and secured the second Wild Card spot in the National League. It marked their first playoff appearance in a 162-game season since 2003.

Few anticipated Miami making that kind of run. They were widely perceived as the fourth-best team in the NL East entering the season. Their success came despite a -57 run differential, as Miami went a staggering 33-14 in one-run contests. How much of that is attributable to good sequencing is up for debate, although it stands to reason voters are giving Schumaker credit for his successful handling of the bullpen in so many late-game situations. The Fish were bounced in the Wild Card round by the Phillies.

While the Marlins were a surprise playoff team, the Orioles claiming the #1 seed in the Junior Circuit might have been even less expected. Baltimore had clearly positioned itself as a team on the rise following an 83-79 showing in 2022. Yet few projected them as favorites in what looked like a stacked AL East going into the year.

Hyde’s club nevertheless improved by 18 games, jumping to a 101-51 season. They ran down and held off the Rays to claim the division title. Baltimore stuck by Gunnar Henderson through some early-season struggles and saw the talented infielder blossom into a star. He was a unanimous choice for Rookie of the Year, while Adley Rutschman reinforced his place as an elite catcher in his second big league campaign. Kyle Bradish stepped forward as an unexpected staff ace, while top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez had a promising second half.

The season didn’t end as the organization hoped. The O’s were swept in the Division Series by the eventual champion Rangers. (That’s not relevant for awards purposes, as the voting is conducted before the postseason.) Hyde’s club nevertheless made a clear statement they’re positioned as consistent contenders entering what’ll be his sixth year at the helm.

Schumaker edged past Craig Counsell (then of the Brewers) and Atlanta’s Brian Snitker in the NL voting. The finalists were joined by Torey Lovullo, Dave Roberts and David Bell in receiving at least one first-place vote. Hyde’s victory was moire resounding, as he picked up 27 of 30 first-place nods. The Rangers’ Bruce Bochy, who finished in second, got the other three selections. Tampa Bay’s Kevin Cash finished in third place.

Full voting results: National League, American League

Guardians Designate Cal Quantrill For Assignment

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The Guardians have designated right-handers Cal Quantrill and Michael Kelly for assignment, per a team announcement. Their spots on the 40-man roster go to fellow righties Cade Smith and Daniel Espino, whose contracts have been selected in order to protect them from next month’s Rule 5 Draft.

Quantrill is the most notable name designated for assignment so far today — a veteran of four-plus big league seasons who was locked into a rotation spot in Cleveland heading into the 2023 season. He struggled badly in an injury-shortened year, however, and the Guards will designate him for assignment rather than pay him a raise in arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected a $6.6MM salary for the former first-round pick.

Prior to the 2023 season, a DFA of Quantrill would have seemed far-fetched. While it might’ve been easy to envision a scenario where Cleveland ultimately traded the righty — as they frequently do with pitchers late in their arbitration years — a straight jettison from the roster for a righty who pitched 336 innings of 3.16 ERA ball from 2021-22 speaks to the magnitude of his struggles in 2023.

Granted, Quantrill enjoyed that success despite a well below-average 18% strikeout rate, but he at least partially offset that lack of whiffs and punchouts with strong command (6.8% walk rate) and a knack for inducing weak contact (87.6 mph average exit velocity, 35% hard-hit rate).

The 2023 campaign couldn’t have gone much more poorly for Quantrill. Shoulder inflammation wiped out more than two months of season, and when he was healthy enough to take the mound he limped to a 5.24 ERA with fielding-independent metrics to match. His fastball, which averaged a career-high 95.3 mph back in 2020, was down to 94.1 mph in 2023, and he posted career-worst strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates of 13.1%, 7.9% and 40.8%. Of the 141 pitchers who tossed at least 90 innings in 2023, Quantrill’s strikeout rate ranked 140th, leading only 40-year-old Adam Wainwright, who retired at season’s end.

The Guardians are known for their ability to regularly churn out quality arms, and their second-to-none pitching development was on full display in ’23, with top prospects Tanner Bibee (the AL Rookie of the Year runner-up), Gavin Williams and Logan Allen all not only making their MLB debuts but almost immediately stepping up as MLB-caliber rotation options. That trio, combined with Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie, gives Cleveland a strong starting five even without Quantrill. Of course, since Bieber has just one year of club control remaining, he’s a trade candidate himself this winter, but the Guards could potentially receive a viable rotation replacement in moving him, sign one in free agency or simply turn to their farm system for yet another rotation candidate.

Cleveland will have a week to trade Quantrill or attempt to pass him through outright waivers. Presumably, the Guards explored trade possibilities before making today’s move to DFA him. That doesn’t mean a deal can’t yet be reached, but there’s now a clock on any dealings. Quantrill would certainly be a candidate to be claimed, and he’d have the right to elect free agency if he clears. One way or another, this DFA all but closes the door on his time with the organization. Any team that claims Quantrill could control him for two more years via arbitration, but they’d have to be willing to pay him something in the vicinity of that projected $6.6MM salary next year.

The rest of Cleveland’s moves are less surprising. Kelly is a 31-year-old journeyman who pitched a career-high 16 2/3 innings in the Cleveland bullpen this year. He held his own with a 3.78 ERA and average 22.5% strikeout rate, but he also walked more than 12% of his opponents and had similar command issues in Triple-A. Like Quantrill, he’ll be traded or potentially passed through waivers within a week’s time. He can elect free agency if he clears.

Espino entered the season ranked as one of the sport’s five best pitching prospects despite a lengthy list of injuries already on his resume. He wound up missing the entire year due to a shoulder procedure performed in early May. The talent is still there for Espino to be a coveted prospect, but with a mounting number of injuries under his belt, he’s fallen well down (or entirely off) most prospect rankings.

Smith, 24, was a 16th-round pick by the Twins back in 2017 but didn’t sign, instead opting for college. He subsequently went undrafted because of the shortened nature of the 2020 draft and signed as a free agent with the Guardians thereafter. He worked exclusively out of the bullpen in 2023, pitching 62 2/3 innings of 4.02 ERA ball between Double-A and Triple-A. It was a pedestrian earned run average, but Smith also fanned a sky-high 35.2% of his opponents. Given his ability to miss bats and his proximity to the Majors, he’d quite likely have been selected in the Rule 5 Draft had Cleveland not protected him. He’ll now have a chance to earn his first big league look this coming season.

Seven Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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All seven players who received a $20.325MM qualifying offer this year have rejected it, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The deadline for a decision is today at 3 pm Central but it seems all of Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Sonny Gray, Josh Hader, Aaron Nola and Blake Snell have already made up their minds.

There wasn’t much drama with any of these decisions, as all seven were considered locks to reject and still collect sizeable free agent contracts. On MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents, six of the seven player were predicted to get a nine-figure deal in the coming months. The only exception was Gray, who was limited by his 34 years of age to a prediction of $90MM over four years. The players had one week to gauge the market after receiving those QOs and it doesn’t seem any of them got any sense that accepting the one-year deal was a wise course of action.

There would have been more drama if some borderline candidates had been issued QOs, but it was a fairly conservative group this winter. Last year, 12 players received QOs and Martín Pérez and Joc Pederson eventually accepted. But none of this year’s on-the-cusp players got the offer, with each of Teoscar Hernández, Jorge Soler, J.D. Martinez, Rhys Hoskins, Kenta Maeda and Kevin Kiermaier heading into free agency unencumbered.

Each of the players who received and rejected the QO will now net their former club draft pick compensation in the event they sign elsewhere this winter. The value of that compensation will depend upon whether the club received revenue sharing or paid the competitive balance tax in 2023. The signing club would also be subject to draft pick forfeiture and perhaps a reduction of international bonus pool space, with the penalty also dependant on revenue sharing and CBT status.

Reds Seen As Increasingly Likely To Trade Jonathan India

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Reds second baseman Jonathan India, the 2021 National League Rookie of the Year, saw his name pop up on the rumor circuit over the summer and has already been an oft-cited trade candidate in the early stages of the offseason. Recent reports from Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Jeff Passan of ESPN do little to quell the belief that the 26-year-old could change hands this winter. Nightengale wrote over the weekend that Cincinnati is “expected” to trade India this offseason, while Passan writes this morning that the Reds have been suggesting to potential trade partners that India is the “odd man out” in their glut of infielders.

Indeed, the Reds have an enviable crop of young talent on the dirt. Beyond India, they saw former first-round pick Matt McLain, top prospect Elly De La Cruz and trade acquisitions Spencer Steer, Noelvi Marte and Christian Encarnacion-Strand all log time in the big leagues.

McLain was the most impressive of the bunch, hitting .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers and 14 steals in 403 trips to the plate. De La Cruz faded after a hot start but still posted a .235/.300/.410 line with 13 homers and a whopping 35 steals in just 98 games — all while recording intriguing batted-ball metrics per Statcast and showing off his elite speed. Steer, meanwhile, bounced between first base, second base, third base and the outfield corners while delivering a .271/.356/.464 output and 23 homers. Encarnacion-Strand (.270/.328/.477, 13 homers in 241 plate appearances) and Marte (.316/.366/.456 in 123 plate appearances) saw less time than the others but acquitted themselves nicely in their MLB debuts.

It’s an immensely talented quintet — one with plenty of defensive versatility. It seems likely that Encarnacion-Strand will settle in at first base and designated hitter, and Steer clearly enjoyed success at the plate in a nomadic, jack-of-all-trades role (even if he graded as a below-average defender at all five positions). Each of De La Cruz, Marte and McLain can handle shortstop, third base or second base. De La Cruz saw the most time at shortstop of the bunch but also posted lesser defensive grades than McLain. The Reds can tinker with the exact alignment in spring training, but regardless of who’s manning which position, it’s hard not to be bullish on Cincinnati’s emerging core of young infielders.

Given that wealth of talent, it becomes easier to see how India could be the odd man out. He’s yet to replicate his excellent showing in that aforementioned Rookie of the Year campaign, when he batted .269/.376/.459 with 21 home runs, 23 doubles, 12 steals and an 11.3% walk rate. He’s since turned in a .246/.333/.394 batting line in 960 plate appearances, showing diminished power and a walk rate about three percentage points lower than his rookie mark. Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average both cast him as a poor defender at his position.

Due to his former draft status (fifth overall in 2018), prospect pedigree and that Rookie of the Year showing, many fans have speculated that India could be used to help the Reds acquire an upgrade for the front portion of their rotation. However, given India’s struggles with the glove and (over the past two seasons) at the plate, it doesn’t seem all that likely that he’d command a strong rotation piece on his own — or even as the headliner in a package also including lesser prospects.

India is entering his first arbitration season, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $3.7MM in 2024, and remains controllable for another three seasons. Those factors, plus his age, are perhaps the Reds’ strongest selling points in trade talks. That said, India feels more like a buy-low candidate than many onlookers might expect for someone who looked like a Reds building block just two years ago. The absolute dearth of quality infield options on the free agent market will play to the Reds’ benefit in drumming up interest, but it seems unlikely that India will fetch them a major upgrade to the starting rotation.

MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald and I discussed India’s potential trade candidacy (among many other topics) on the upcoming episode of the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, and just this past weekend MLBTR’s Nick Deeds took a look at some potential landing spots for India in the event that the Reds ultimately do move him. India placed 11th on MLBTR’s list of the top 25 offseason trade candidates just yesterday.

Top 25 Offseason Trade Candidates

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While the offseason has gotten rolling, trade season hasn’t quite arrived. The Tigers acquired Mark Canha from Milwaukee in the biggest swap of the first couple weeks. Otherwise, the GM Meetings simply served to set the stage for future transactions.

That’ll surely involve some notable trades. Unlike the summer deadline, projecting which players will change hands is difficult at this stage of the offseason. Aside from the A’s, there aren’t any teams clearly in rebuild mode. Clubs like the Rockies, Royals, White Sox, Nationals and Angels have uphill paths to contention, yet none has indicated they’re prepared to punt on the 2024 season entirely.

The Padres, Twins, Rays, Brewers and Guardians are all aiming to contend but have questions about their payroll. That’s standard operating procedure for Tampa Bay, Milwaukee and Cleveland. San Diego and, to a lesser extent, Minnesota have shown a willingness to spend in recent years but are scaling back — in both cases, likely tied to their uncertain local television rights contracts.

That informs the offseason trade landscape, which is headlined by a few stars deep into their arbitration windows. Without many clear rebuilders, it’s possible we see more swaps of big leaguers at positions of need between teams that expect to compete.

Before we get to the list, a note on methodology. This isn’t a strict ranking of players’ trade value, nor is it solely about likelihood of being moved. We’re trying to balance both of those things, an inherently subjective exercise. All projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

1. Juan Soto, LF, Padres

Other than Shohei Ohtani’s free agency, there may be no bigger story of the offseason than Soto’s future in San Diego. He is entering his final year of club control, projected for a $33MM salary that would be the highest ever for an arbitration-eligible player. The Padres are scaling back payroll, perhaps as much as $50MM. They need multiple starting pitchers and could stand to upgrade at first base and/or designated hitter.

Trading Soto would allow the Friars to recoup MLB-ready talent while clearing significant spending room for multiple smaller additions. It would also be a devastating blow to the lineup. Soto overcame a relatively slow start (by his standards) to hit .275/.410/.519 with 35 home runs this year. The Padres are still motivated to win in the short term. Barring what would be a stunning run at Ohtani, they’re not going to acquire anyone better than Soto.

President of baseball operations A.J. Preller continues to maintain they’ll explore a long-term deal. There’s nothing to suggest an extension is particularly likely. Soto rejected a $440MM offer from the Nationals before he was traded at the 2022 deadline. The price would only be higher now that he’s a year and a half closer to free agency. In the absence of an extension or a definitive declaration that Soto is off the trade market, speculation will linger. Alden González of ESPN wrote last week that many throughout the industry believe the three-time All-Star will be available.

2. Corbin Burnes, SP, Brewers

3. Willy Adames, SS, Brewers

Burnes and Adames are tied together with good reason. They’re each one year from the open market and projected for a noteworthy arbitration salary — $15.1MM for Burnes, $12.4MM for Adames. Milwaukee is reportedly open to offers on the majority of the roster.

A former Cy Young winner, Burnes may be the best pitcher available in trade. The right-hander posted a sub-3.00 ERA each season from 2020-22. His 3.39 mark across 193 2/3 innings this past season wasn’t quite so dominant but is still high-end production. Burnes struck out just under 26% of opposing hitters. While his lowest mark since his rookie season, that’s still an above-average figure.

Adames is coming off a less impressive year. The 28-year-old hit .217/.310/.407 through 638 trips to the plate. That’s slightly below-average offense, although he still connected on 24 home runs. Adames is an excellent defensive shortstop with plus power in an offseason where there are essentially no free agent shortstops of note. Even with a mediocre on-base percentage, he’d generate plenty of interest.

4. Shane Bieber, SP, Guardians

Develop high-end starting pitching, trade a top starter as they become more expensive, replace him with talented younger arms. The Guardians have trodden this path with Corey Kluber, Mike Clevinger and Carlos Carrasco. Bieber, one year from free agency with a projected $12.2MM salary, could be next.

Cleveland has the likes of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen, Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill (himself a potential trade candidate) as rotation options. While Bieber is no longer a Cy Young caliber pitcher, he turned in a 3.80 ERA with a below-average but serviceable 20.1% strikeout rate over 21 starts this past season. Bieber lost a good chunk of the second half to elbow inflammation but returned to make two appearances in late September.

5. Tyler Glasnow, SP, Rays

The Rays signed Glasnow to an extension in August 2022 when he was completing his rehab from Tommy John surgery. The big right-hander is set to make $25MM next season, the largest single-year salary in franchise history. That naturally leads to questions about whether the Rays are prepared to meet that figure, particularly in an offseason where they have a loaded arbitration class.

If they made him available — and he’s already surfaced in rumors — Glasnow would be a very appealing target. He was quite good this year, working to a 3.53 ERA while striking out more than a third of opponents over 21 starts. An oblique strain cost him the first two months of the season, but he avoided the injured list thereafter. He’s a year away from free agency, making another extension with Tampa Bay appear unlikely. Yet dealing him would represent a tough blow to the Rays’ chances of competing in 2024. They’re already down Shane McClanahan for the entire season and will be without Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen for at least a good portion of the year. While they’d likely bring back some kind of MLB help as part of a Glasnow trade return, the rotation depth could be a problem.

6. Dylan Cease, SP, White Sox

Cease had a disappointing follow-up to his Cy Young runner-up campaign. He allowed a 4.58 ERA over 177 innings this past season. That’s nearly two and a half runs higher than his sparkling 2.20 mark of the prior year. As is often the case, his true talent probably lies somewhere in the middle. Cease still missed plenty of bats — 27.3% strikeout rate, 13.6% swinging strike percentage — while issuing a few more walks than ideal. His fastball averaged 95.6 MPH, down a tick from the preceding season.

The right-hander has shown the ability to pitch at an ace-caliber level. He is two seasons from free agency and projected for an $8.8MM arbitration salary, making him more affordable than the other high-end starting pitchers near the top of this list. The extra year of control probably gives him more trade value than any of Burnes, Bieber or Glasnow. It also makes him less likely to be traded this offseason.

First-year GM Chris Getz has suggested no one on the roster is truly untouchable, an understandable approach for a team that just lost 101 games. Neither owner Jerry Reinsdorf nor Getz has called this a rebuild, though. Any slim hopes the White Sox may have of competing in 2024 would be dashed by trading Cease, the only above-average starting pitcher on the roster.

7. Alex Verdugo, RF, Red Sox

Verdugo’s name has been floated in trade rumors for a few seasons. The Red Sox have held onto him thus far. They have a new baseball operations leader in Craig Breslow, who has acknowledged the team has gotten early calls on the left-handed hitting outfielder. Jarren Duran and Masataka Yoshida also hit from the left side. Dealing Verdugo could free some at-bats for a right-handed addition while perhaps bringing in immediate help for the pitching staff or at second base.

MLBTR projects Verdugo for a $9.2MM salary in his final season of arbitration. He’s coming off another league-average offensive showing, when he hit .264/.324/.421 with 13 home runs through 602 plate appearances. Verdugo hasn’t become the All-Star player the Sox envisioned when building the Mookie Betts return around him. He’s a solid regular, a high-contact hitter who rates as a decent defender in right field.

8. Trent Grisham, CF, Padres

9. Ha-Seong Kim, 2B, Padres

If the Padres hold Soto, dealing Grisham and/or Kim could be an alternative means of trimming payroll. While neither is going to make anywhere near Soto money in 2024, they’re each on mid-level salaries of note. Grisham is projected for a $4.9MM salary in his second-to-last season of arbitration. Kim is slated for an $8MM salary and will be due a $2MM buyout on a 2025 mutual option at season’s end. He’ll be a free agent next winter.

Grisham has the extra year of control but is the worse player. He draws plenty of walks but has hit below the Mendoza line in two straight seasons. He’s coming off a .198/.315/.352 line over 555 plate appearances. The appeal is on the other side of the ball. Grisham is an above-average defensive center fielder, keeping him as a low-end regular even if he’s best suited for the bottom of a lineup. San Diego could kick Fernando Tatis Jr. over to center field if they dealt Grisham, freeing right field for a bigger offensive threat than Grisham provides.

It’s a similar story with Kim. Dealing him would free Jake Cronenworth to move back to second base, opening first base for a better hitter. It’d be tough to replace Kim’s overall production, though. He’s a plus defender at multiple infield spots. He hit .260/.351/.398 with 17 home runs and stole 38 bases in 152 games. Trading Kim isn’t as damaging to the lineup as a Soto deal would be, but it’d be tougher than parting with Grisham.

10. Gleyber Torres, 2B, Yankees

Another player one year from free agency, Torres is projected for a $15.3MM salary in his last arbitration season. That’s below his market value but a notable figure for a bat-first second baseman — a general profile that the league has devalued in recent years. Torres was New York’s second-best offensive player in 2023, hitting .273/.347/.453 with 25 homers through 672 trips to the plate.

Even if they’re not interested in an extension, New York could hold Torres for his final season of club control. They’re already light on consistent hitting beyond Aaron Judge. On the surface, trading their second-best hitter seems counterintuitive. The big question is whether the front office believes Oswald Peraza is capable of stepping into an everyday second base role in 2024. If they feel the 23-year-old is ready, trading Torres to clear spending room while bringing back outfield or pitching help makes sense.

11. Jonathan India, 2B, Reds

The Reds’ infield surplus has fueled trade speculation on India back to the deadline. Cincinnati didn’t seem inclined to make that move midseason, pointing to India’s role as a clubhouse leader. While that’s certainly still a factor, he didn’t hit well down the stretch and finished the year with a middling .244/.338/.407 batting line. He’s a well below-average keystone defender.

There’s an argument the Reds are better off relying on an up-the-middle tandem of Matt McLain and either Noelvi Marte or Elly De La Cruz. Perhaps the offseason is a better time to consider moving India for a back-end starter. The former Rookie of the Year is projected for a $3.7MM salary and has three seasons of remaining arbitration control.

12. Eloy Jiménez, DH, White Sox

Jiménez no longer looks like a core piece for the White Sox. Various injuries have kept him off the field throughout his big league tenure. He only has two seasons of 100+ games and hasn’t gotten to 500 plate appearances since his 2019 rookie year. Jiménez was still an excellent hitter when healthy as recently as 2022, when he ran a .295/.358/.500 line over 84 games. His production fell this year, as he posted a .272/.317/.441 slash with 18 homers over 489 trips to the dish.

That’s not especially imposing for a player who’s best suited at DH. Yet Jiménez has shown greater offensive upside that isn’t matched by many in this winter’s free agent class. If the Sox are prepared to move on, another team could look to buy low. He’ll make a $13MM salary next year, the final guaranteed season of his contract. He’s guaranteed a $3MM buyout on a $16.5MM club option for 2025 and the deal contains an $18.5MM team option for the ’26 campaign.

13. Max Kepler, RF, Twins

14. Jorge Polanco, 2B, Twins

Minnesota president of baseball operations Derek Falvey has confirmed the team is paring back payroll. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reported the organization could end in the $125-140MM range. At the moment, they have around $120MM in projected spending.

The Twins have a few ways to clear room. Trading either Kepler or Polanco would accomplish that. The former is making $10MM, while the latter is playing on a $10.5MM deal. Kepler will be a free agent after next season; Polanco’s contract has a $12.5MM team option for 2025 that comes with a $750K buyout.

They’re each good players. Kepler is a plus defender in right field who hit .260/.332/.484 with 24 homers this year. Polanco was limited to 80 games but ran a .255/.335/.454 showing. He’s one of the sport’s better offensive second basemen and saw some third base action for Minnesota late in the year. The Twins have Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach as left-handed hitting corner outfield options. They’re deeper on the infield, where Willi Castro and Kyle Farmer (another trade candidate) are possibilities at second/third base behind starters Edouard Julien and Royce Lewis. Top prospect Brooks Lee, the No. 8 overall pick in 2022, isn’t far from MLB readiness. The Twins could look to move Kepler or Polanco for rotation depth or to bring in a righty bat to balance the lineup.

15. Randy Arozarena, LF, Rays

Arozarena hasn’t been the subject of the same level of trade speculation as Glasnow has. There’s an argument the Rays should be more willing to move the All-Star outfielder if they’re looking to create payroll room. Tampa Bay has greater depth in the outfield than they do on their injury-riddled pitching staff. Josh Lowe, Jose Siri, Harold Ramírez, Luke Raley and Manuel Margot are all on hand. (Margot has come up in trade rumors as well.)

None of those players is as good as Arozarena. Trading star players for younger talent is familiar territory for the Tampa Bay front office though. Arozarena is projected for a $9MM arbitration salary and controllable for three seasons. He’d have significant trade value if the Rays were to consider moving him.

16. Mariners SP

We initially had Bryan Woo in this spot. It could just as easily have been Bryce Miller or Emerson Hancock, so we’ll cheat and just mention the Seattle rotation in general. They’re almost certainly not going to trade George Kirby. It’d take a lot to pry away Logan Gilbert. Moving any of Woo, Miller or Hancock could be more appealing for a front office that is looking for ways to add long-term offensive upside.

None of that trio has even reached one year of major league service. Hancock only has three big league starts under his belt. Miller and Woo spent more time in the rotation this year, starting 25 and 18 games respectively. They both turned in mid-rotation results. Other clubs probably have differing opinions on which right-hander they prefer. (The Mariners likely have their own slight preferences.) They’d all have significant value if president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto decided to move one for a bat.

17. Dylan Carlson, CF, Cardinals

It was a bit of a surprise that Carlson didn’t change hands over the summer. Various reports suggested the Cards were making him available as they looked for ways to add a controllable starter. It didn’t happen, but the same logic applies this winter.

Carlson has been surpassed by Lars Nootbaar as the starting center fielder. St. Louis needs multiple starting pitchers and will likely bring in at least one via trade. Carlson probably has less value than he did before the deadline. Not only did he finish with a mediocre .219/.318/.333 batting line, he underwent season-ending surgery on his left ankle in September. There’d nevertheless be teams willing to take a shot on a former top prospect who looked like an average or better center fielder 12 months ago. Carlson is projected for a modest $1.8MM salary and has three years of arbitration control.

18. Paul Blackburn, SP, A’s

Blackburn is arguably the most desirable realistic trade candidate on the Oakland roster. The A’s have torn things to the studs. They’re unlikely to compete within the two remaining years of Blackburn’s arbitration window. The right-hander (30 next month) worked to a 4.43 ERA with a decent 22.4% strikeout rate over 103 2/3 innings this past season. He’s projected for a $3.2MM salary. A Blackburn trade isn’t going to be an offseason defining move, but he has a good chance to be flipped to a contender seeking affordable back-end starting pitching.

19. Alek Manoah, SP, Blue Jays

Perhaps no player had a more disappointing 2023 performance than Manoah. Within one season, he went from Cy Young finalist to essentially unplayable. The right-hander pitched to a 5.87 ERA over 19 big league outings. His walks more than doubled while his strikeouts fell from 22.9% to a modest 19% clip. He lost his spot in the Toronto rotation and was eventually demoted to the minors. Manoah never pitched in Triple-A and received an injection in his throwing shoulder at the end of the season.

How will the Jays proceed after that disastrous year? General manager Ross Atkins said last week the team would give him “a strong leg up” on the #5 spot in the rotation. The Jays aren’t broadcasting a desire to trade him, although they wouldn’t be doing themselves any favors if they declared they were ready to move on. Dealing Manoah to bring in a lower upside but higher floor pitcher wouldn’t be a surprise with the Jays firmly in win-now mode. The former first-round pick is controllable for four more seasons and won’t reach arbitration until next winter.

20. Brandon Drury, 2B, Angels

The Halos signed Drury to a two-year free agent deal last winter. The righty-hitting infielder turned in a nice season, connecting on 26 home runs with a .262/.306/.497 line across 523 plate appearances. Next year’s $8.5MM salary looks like strong value, particularly in an offseason where the supply of up-the-middle players is thin. The Angels probably aren’t kicking off a rebuild. They could do a shorter-term retool if Ohtani walks, or they could simply look to move Drury for pitching while turning second base to Luis Rengifo and/or an external acquisition.

21. Brendan Donovan, 2B, Cardinals

Donovan is a longer shot trade possibility if the Cards move a controllable hitter for starting pitching. He’s more valuable than Carlson and less likely to be on the move. At the same time, he’d net a clearer rotation upgrade if St. Louis were to give him up — likely turning the middle infield over to a combination of Tommy Edman, Nolan Gorman and Masyn Winn in that scenario.

The 26-year-old hit .284/.365/.422 with 11 homers through 371 plate appearances this past season. A flexor tendon injury pushed him to designated hitter and eventually required surgery that ended his year a couple months early. He’s expected back for Spring Training. If healthy, Donovan brings excellent contact skills and a solid plate approach. He’s a multi-positional defender who can play any of the corners in addition to second base. Donovan has four years of remaining control and won’t get to arbitration until next offseason.

22. Christopher Morel, DH, Cubs

Morel is likely to be a divisive player around the league. He has huge raw power and connected on 26 home runs while slugging .508 in 107 games for the Cubs. The right-handed hitter owns a .241/.311/.471 line in just over 850 MLB plate appearances over the past two seasons. When he’s hot, he can carry a lineup.

He also strikes out more than 30% of the time and doesn’t have a defensive fit. Morel has played all three outfield spots and each of second base, third base and shortstop in the majors. He hasn’t rated well anywhere. The Cubs used him mostly at designated hitter this year and have suggested they’ll get him first base run in 2024. That’s not a great fit for a plus runner with top-of-the-scale arm strength, yet Morel hasn’t shown himself capable of handling more important positions on a regular basis.

How teams project Morel defensively could impact both whether he’s traded and what kind of return the Cubs could receive. As a first baseman or DH, he’s a fringe regular with a statistical profile that’d paint him as a lumbering slugger as opposed to a dynamic athlete. If another team feels he can hold his own at second base or in center field, he becomes far more desirable. The Cubs have no urgency to trade him. Morel is controllable through 2028 and won’t reach arbitration for at least another season. Yet president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer has alluded to the possibility of a deal, saying last week that “another team might be able to put him [at second base],” where the Cubs have Nico Hoerner.

23. Christian Vázquez, C, Twins

Trading Vázquez is another route Minnesota could consider to clear money. The Twins signed the veteran catcher to a three-year, $30MM free agent deal last offseason. He had a tough first season in Minneapolis, limping to a .223/.280/.318 line over 355 plate appearances — albeit with his typical brand of excellent defense. Ryan Jeffers easily surpassed him as the #1 option on the depth chart. A $10MM per year backup catcher is a luxury for a team trying to trim salary.

Minnesota likely wouldn’t be able to offload the entire deal, but they could try to shed around half the money or take on a smaller contract in return. Vázquez’s year wasn’t much worse than a season that got Omar Narváez two years and $15MM last winter, while Tucker Barnhart secured a two-year, $6.5MM guarantee despite a much lesser offensive track record.

24. Luis Robert Jr., CF, White Sox

Robert has the most trade value of any player on this list. He may also be the least likely to move. Last week, Getz called him a franchise building block and noted he had no plans to proactively shop Robert even as he left open the possibility of listening to offers on anyone.

It’s not hard to understand why. Robert’s an elite defensive center fielder who connected on 38 home runs while hitting .264/.315/.542. It was the first time he stayed healthy for a 162-game schedule. The result was a season that’ll get him down-ballot MVP support. Robert is a prime-aged superstar and, unlike Soto or Burnes, he’s nowhere near free agency. He’ll make $12.5MM next year, $15MM in 2025 and is controllable via $20MM team options for 2026-27. Trading Robert would signify a complete teardown that the Sox probably don’t want. Yet the haul would be astronomical if they decided to go in that direction.

25. Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets

Alonso was the subject of early offseason trade speculation. With the Mets projecting a less active offseason and placing a priority on 2025, it wasn’t out of the question he could be available. Alonso is projected for a $22MM arbitration salary and will be a free agent after next year.

New York has subsequently walked back some of their statements about a possible retool. They’re still aiming to compete in ’24 even if they’re signaling they won’t blow away the top of the free agent market. First-year president of baseball operations David Stearns has twice publicly said he anticipates Alonso being the Opening Day first baseman in Queens. That won’t stop teams from trying, but an offseason deal looks decidedly unlikely.

Others Of Note

A’s: Seth Brown

Braves: Vaughn Grissom

Brewers: Adrian Houser, Devin Williams, Brandon Woodruff

Cardinals: Alec Burleson, Tommy Edman, Nolan Gorman, Tyler O’Neill

Giants: J.D. Davis, Mike Yastrzemski

Guardians: Josh Naylor, Cal Quantrill

Mariners: Ty France

Marlins: Josh Bell

Mets: Jeff McNeil

Nationals: Hunter Harvey, Lane Thomas

Orioles: Anthony Santander

Padres: Scott Barlow

Phillies: Nick Castellanos

Rays: Manuel Margot, Harold Ramírez

Red Sox: Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, Nick Pivetta

Rockies: Brendan Rodgers

Royals: Salvador Perez

Tigers: Spencer Turnbull

Twins: Kyle Farmer

Tanner Bibee Earns Full Service Year With Rookie Of The Year Runner-Up

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Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee finished runner-up in this year’s American League Rookie of the Year balloting. While the honor went to Orioles infielder Gunnar Henderson, the runner-up placement is an important development for Bibee as he will earn a full year of service time for the 2023 campaign.

In order to disincentivize service time manipulation, the MLBPA and MLB agreed to include a prospect promotion incentive in the collective bargaining agreement that was agreed to prior to the 2022 campaign. As a result of the incentive, players with less than sixty days of service time entering the season receive a full year of service time if they finish in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting, so long as they were featured on at least two preseason Top-100 prospect lists from ESPN, Baseball America, and MLB Pipeline. Bibee met those qualifications, and as such will earn a full year of service time for the 2023 season despite making his big league debut near the end of April. That leaves Bibee likely set to hit free agency after the 2028 season as things stand.

It’s certainly exciting news for Bibee, 24, who looked like a potential front-of-the-rotation arm for the Guardians across 25 starts this season. The right-hander posted a 2.98 ERA that was 40% better than league average by measure of ERA+, alongside a 3.52 FIP that was 17% better than league average by measure of FIP- in 142 innings of work. Impressive as Bibee was during his first season in the majors, there were some potential red flags in his performance, perhaps most notably a whopping 80% strand rate that was ninth-best in the majors among pitchers with at least 120 innings of work this year. His 24.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate were both right around league average, but his exceptionally low 36.8% groundball rate could leave him vulnerable to major changes in his home-run-to-fly-ball fortunes, particularly if he struggles to replicate his exceptional 6.1% barrel rate.

Still, Bibee figures to be a mid-rotation or better arm for the Guardians going forward even if he’s unable to keep up the incredible production of his rookie season. With Bibee now a year closer to free agency than he otherwise would have been, he figures to have a considerable amount of additional leverage should the Guardians look to engage with him in extension talks. After all, Bibee now figures to hit free agency a few months before his 30th birthday, and free agents who hit the market younger than 30 tend to be in much better position to seek long term commitments from clubs in free agency. Of course, free agency is still a long way away for Bibee and there’s been no indication of the Guardians looking to lock the youngster, who won’t be arbitration eligible until the 2025-26 offseason.

Bibee’s runner-up finish for the award will not earn the Guardians an additional draft pick in the 2024 draft, unlike Henderson’s first-place finish for the Orioles. Baltimore will earn the extra draft pick because Henderson both met the aforementioned criteria to be considered a top prospect preseason and would have qualified for a full year of service time after being on the MLB roster for at least 172 days in 2023. Bibee, meanwhile, was on the roster for just 158 days and would have fallen short of a full year of service time if not for his top-two finish in AL Rookie of the Year voting.

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