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Tanner Bibee Earns Full Service Year With Rookie Of The Year Runner-Up

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Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee finished runner-up in this year’s American League Rookie of the Year balloting. While the honor went to Orioles infielder Gunnar Henderson, the runner-up placement is an important development for Bibee as he will earn a full year of service time for the 2023 campaign.

In order to disincentivize service time manipulation, the MLBPA and MLB agreed to include a prospect promotion incentive in the collective bargaining agreement that was agreed to prior to the 2022 campaign. As a result of the incentive, players with less than sixty days of service time entering the season receive a full year of service time if they finish in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting, so long as they were featured on at least two preseason Top-100 prospect lists from ESPN, Baseball America, and MLB Pipeline. Bibee met those qualifications, and as such will earn a full year of service time for the 2023 season despite making his big league debut near the end of April. That leaves Bibee likely set to hit free agency after the 2028 season as things stand.

It’s certainly exciting news for Bibee, 24, who looked like a potential front-of-the-rotation arm for the Guardians across 25 starts this season. The right-hander posted a 2.98 ERA that was 40% better than league average by measure of ERA+, alongside a 3.52 FIP that was 17% better than league average by measure of FIP- in 142 innings of work. Impressive as Bibee was during his first season in the majors, there were some potential red flags in his performance, perhaps most notably a whopping 80% strand rate that was ninth-best in the majors among pitchers with at least 120 innings of work this year. His 24.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate were both right around league average, but his exceptionally low 36.8% groundball rate could leave him vulnerable to major changes in his home-run-to-fly-ball fortunes, particularly if he struggles to replicate his exceptional 6.1% barrel rate.

Still, Bibee figures to be a mid-rotation or better arm for the Guardians going forward even if he’s unable to keep up the incredible production of his rookie season. With Bibee now a year closer to free agency than he otherwise would have been, he figures to have a considerable amount of additional leverage should the Guardians look to engage with him in extension talks. After all, Bibee now figures to hit free agency a few months before his 30th birthday, and free agents who hit the market younger than 30 tend to be in much better position to seek long term commitments from clubs in free agency. Of course, free agency is still a long way away for Bibee and there’s been no indication of the Guardians looking to lock the youngster, who won’t be arbitration eligible until the 2025-26 offseason.

Bibee’s runner-up finish for the award will not earn the Guardians an additional draft pick in the 2024 draft, unlike Henderson’s first-place finish for the Orioles. Baltimore will earn the extra draft pick because Henderson both met the aforementioned criteria to be considered a top prospect preseason and would have qualified for a full year of service time after being on the MLB roster for at least 172 days in 2023. Bibee, meanwhile, was on the roster for just 158 days and would have fallen short of a full year of service time if not for his top-two finish in AL Rookie of the Year voting.

Corbin Carroll Wins National League Rookie Of The Year Award

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Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll has won the National League Rookie of the Year award, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced. Mets right-hander Kodai Senga came in second while Dodgers outfielder James Outman placed third.

Carroll was selected to Arizona’s roster in late August of last year, allowing him to get a taste of the majors but without exhausting his rookie status. He fared extremely well in that audition, hitting .260/.330/.500 in his first 115 plate appearances for a wRC+ of 131, indicating he was 31% better than the league average hitter in that time. The D’Backs felt confident enough in Carroll based on that showing, and his work as a minor leaguer, to give him an eight-year extension with a guarantee of $111MM.

They were hoping he would be an integral part of the club and help them make the postseason for the first time since 2017. He went on to have an incredible showing in his first full season in the majors, hitting 25 home runs and stealing 54 bases. His .285/.362/.506 line led to a 131 wRC+ and he also got strong grades for his outfield defense. He produced 6.0 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs while Baseball Reference had him at 5.4. The club did indeed break their postseason drought, snagging a Wild Card spot and eventually going all the way to the World Series.

While the award is surely thrilling for Carroll and the Snakes on its own, there are other implications of Carroll taking the trophy. The new collective bargaining agreement contains measures designed to combat service time manipulation through the prospect promotion incentive, or PPI. Top-two Rookie of the Year finishers who were Top 100 prospects on at least two preseason lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline are automatically credited with a full service year. That won’t apply to Carroll, who was up all year and earned a full service year regardless, though he was the #2 prospect on all three of those lists. Gunnar Henderson, who got the AL trophy today, was #1.

But players with PPI status can also earn extra draft picks for their clubs if they have less than 60 days of service time to start the season and earn a full service year the traditional way, as Carroll did, while also appearing on those preseason prospect lists. Players in that camp who finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting or top three in Cy Young or Most Valuable Player voting during their pre-arbitration seasons earn a bonus pick after the first round for their club. That means the Diamondbacks, who are already loaded with young talent, will get a valuable extra pick in next year’s draft.

Senga also had a strong season, his first after coming over from Japan. He made 29 starts for the Mets with a 2.98 earned run average, 29.1% strikeout rate, 11.1% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate. Players considered by MLB to be foreign professionals, as Senga is, aren’t eligible to earn PPI picks for their clubs. Outman also had a solid campaign, hitting 23 home runs and stealing 16 bases. He struck out in 31.9% of his plate appearances but offset that somewhat by walking at a 12% clip. His .248/.353/.437 batting line led to a wRC+ of 118 and he also graded out well in the field. He wasn’t considered a top 100 prospect coming into the year and wouldn’t have qualified for a PPI pick even if he surpassed Senga for second place.

The voting was unanimous, per the vote tally at BBWAA, with Carroll getting all 30 first-place votes. Senga got 22 second-place votes and Outman got five. Other players getting votes were Nolan Jones of the Rockies, Eury Pérez of the Marlins, Patrick Bailey of the Giants and three Reds: Matt McLain, Spencer Steer and Elly De La Cruz.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Gunnar Henderson Wins American League Rookie Of The Year Award

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Orioles infielder Gunnar Henderson has won Rookie of the Year for the American League, per an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. Tanner Bibee of the Guardians placed second while Triston Casas of the Red Sox placed third.

Henderson got to make his major league debut last year as a September call-up, just a couple of months after his 21st birthday. Despite his young age, he held himself incredibly well. His 25.8% strikeout rate was a bit above average, but he also drew walks at a 12.1% clip. His .259/.348/.440 batting line last year resulted in a 128 wRC+, indicating he was 28% above league average in that time. That call-up gave him a chance to get a taste of the majors while maintaining rookie status, since he didn’t get to 130 at-bat or 45 days on the roster.

The O’s came into 2023 looking to firmly stamp out their rebuild and make the postseason for the first time since 2016. Henderson’s first full season helped them do just that, as he hit 28 home runs and stole 10 bases. His walk rate dipped to 9%, though that was still above league average. His .259/.348/.440 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 123. He split his time between shortstop and third base, getting strong grades at both positions. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 4.6 wins above replacement while Baseball Reference had him at 6.2. The Orioles, meanwhile, won 101 games and took the top spot in the American League East.

The award is surely gratifying for Henderson and the O’s in and of itself, but there are other implications of this news. The new collective bargaining agreement contains measures designed to combat service time manipulation through the prospect promotion incentive, or PPI. Top-two Rookie of the Year finishers who were Top 100 prospects on at least two preseason lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline are automatically credited with a full service year. That won’t apply to Henderson, who was up all year and earned a full service year regardless, though he was the #1 prospect on all three of those lists.

But players with PPI status can also earn extra draft picks for their clubs if they have less than 60 days of service time to start the season and earn a full service year the traditional way, as Henderson did, while also appearing on those preseason prospect lists. Players in that camp who finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting or top three in Cy Young or Most Valuable Player voting during their pre-arbitration seasons earn a bonus pick after the first round for their club. That means the O’s, who are already loaded with young talent, will get a valuable extra pick in next year’s draft.

Bibee and Casas also had strong seasons, but not enough to catch Henderson. The former made 25 starts for the Guards with a 2.98 earned run average, 24.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. He wasn’t promoted until late April but will earn a full service year by getting second place in this voting. But since he didn’t get that service year the traditional way, the Guards won’t get a bonus draft pick. Casas hit 24 home runs and walked in 13.9% of his plate appearances, leading to a .263/.367/.490 batting line and 129 wRC+. He was in the majors all year, so the voting won’t impact him from a service time perspective, but he falls just shy of getting the Red Sox a bonus pick.

Henderson was a unanimous selection, per the full vote tally from the BBWAA, getting all 30 first-place votes. Bibee got 20 of the second-place votes while Casas got six. Other players receiving votes were Josh Jung of the Rangers, Yainer Diaz of the Astros, Masataka Yoshida of the Red Sox, Edouard Julien of the Twins and Anthony Volpe of the Yankees.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Cubs Hire Craig Counsell As Manager

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Nov. 13: The Cubs formally introduced Counsell at a press conference Monday morning.

Nov. 6: The managerial market provided a stunning twist today, with Craig Counsell jumping from the Brewers to the Cubs. He will replace David Ross, who has been relieved of his duties, per an announcement from the Cubs. Counsell will become the highest-paid manager in the league, earning $40MM over the next five years, $8MM per year. The Brewers reportedly made him an offer to stay in Milwaukee but topped out at $5.5MM per year.

“Today we made the difficult decision to dismiss David Ross as our Major League Manager,” a statement from president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer reads. “On behalf of the Cubs organization, we express our deep gratitude for David’s contributions to our club, both on and off the field. First as a player and then as a manger, David continually showcased his ability to lead. David’s legacy will be felt in Chicago for generations and his impact to our organization will stack up with the legends that came before him. Going forward, our Major League team will be managed by Craig Counsell. We look forward to welcoming Craig at Wrigley Field early next week.”

Counsell took over as manager of the Brewers for the 2015 season. Since then, the club has had a run of strong results, making the playoffs in five of the past six years despite generally having low payrolls. 2023 was the final year of his contract and he was a popular target around the league. He interviewed with the Guardians and Mets and garnered interest from the Astros, though a return to the Brewers seemed to still be possible. But now in a stunning twist, he’s jumping from the Brewers to their divisional rivals, who weren’t even known to be looking for a new skipper.

The fit with the Mets was a sensible assumption to make, even before Counsell interviewed there. David Stearns, who worked with Counsell for many years in Milwaukee, was hired by the Mets a couple of months ago to be president of baseball operations. It was also reported last week that Counsell was looking to push manager salaries forward, which only made the fit with the Mets more logical, given the spendthrift stylings of owner Steve Cohen.

Joe Torre previously had the managerial salary record, earning $8MM with the Yankees. But his last season in the dugout was 2007 and salaries for skippers have evidently levelled off since then. Recent reporting indicated that Terry Francona of the Guardians was the highest-paid manager in 2023, with a reported salary of $4.5MM. Bob Nightengale of USA Today wrote last month about the growing concern around the game that managerial and coaching salaries at the big league level were falling behind those of many colleges. Counsell seems to have set a mission to reverse that trend and seems to have done so, which could potentially have effects in the game for years to come.

But the fact that the Cubs have swooped in to be the one to help him accomplish that goal is a development that came out of nowhere. Ross has been the manager for the Cubs since 2020 and was extended prior to 2022, with a contract that went through 2024 and had a club option for 2025. The Cubs have been rebuilding for much of that time but made a more earnest shot at contending in 2023. They gave significant contracts to players like Dansby Swanson, Jameson Taillon, Cody Bellinger and others last winter and then added Jeimer Candelario at the deadline. Unfortunately, the club fell just short, finishing 83-79 and just a single game back of a Wild Card spot.

It seems the club will respond to that finish with a managerial shift, though it’s not necessarily a knock on Ross. Heyman reports that today’s development was more about Counsell’s availability than it was about Ross. As the season was winding down, both Hoyer and chairman Tom Ricketts voiced support for Ross but they have now pivoted in a big way, putting down significant cash to do so.

This move will have ripple effects on the game of musical chairs that has been playing out in terms of big league managerial positions. Counsell will be charged with leading the Cubs further away from their recent rebuild while the Brewers will now have to look for a new bench boss for the first time in almost a decade. The Astros, Padres and Angels have current vacancies as well.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported that Counsell would be leaving the Brewers and that he would join the Cubs. Rosenthal also reported that Counsell would make more than $40MM over five years, though subsequent reports pegged his contract at exactly $40MM. Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel provided the details on the offer from the Brewers.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Astros To Promote Joe Espada To Manager’s Job

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The Astros have concluded their managerial search and are expected to promote bench coach Joe Espada to the role, according to reports from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale and Jim Bowden of The Athletic. An official press conference to introduce Espada is set for Monday at 11am CT.

Espada, 48, was a second-round pick by the A’s in the 1996 draft and played nine seasons in the minor leagues. While he was selected by the Twins in the 1998 Rule 5 draft, he did not ultimately crack the Opening Day roster in Minnesota and never received a big league opportunity afterward, ending his minor league career with a .275/.363/.343 slash line in 644 career games. After retiring as a player in 2005, he began his coaching career as a member of the Marlins organization in 2006, serving as a minor league hitting coach and infield coordinator before being named the major league third base coach prior to the 2010 season. Espada ultimately spent four seasons in Miami as third base coach. When the Marlins attempted to reassign Espada to manage in the minor leagues following the 2010 season, he departed the organization to become a special assistant in the Yankees’ front office.

Espada returned to coaching in 2015 as third base and infield coach for the Yankees, serving in the role for three years before being hired by the Astros to replace Alex Cora as the club’s bench coach for the 2018 season following Cora’s hire as manager of the Red Sox. Espada has been the club’s bench coach ever since, serving under both A.J. Hinch and Dusty Baker over the past six seasons. During his time as Houston’s bench coach, Espada has regularly been a candidate for managerial positions. The Cubs, Giants, Mets, White Sox, Marlins, and Athletics are all among the clubs Espada interviewed with in recent years, though the job ultimately went to another candidate each time. With Baker having stepped away from managing, however, Espada is finally getting his first shot to manage in the majors.

Though the hiring of Espada as manager hardly constitutes a surprise, the club’s long-time bench coach was not the only candidate consider for the role. The Astros were briefly linked to Craig Counsell prior to him joining the Cubs, while former Tigers and Angels manager Brad Ausmus and third base coach Omar Lopez were among other candidates reportedly considered for the role. Houston owner Jim Crane and adviser Jeff Bagwell were both thought to have “immense say” over the managerial search, though rumors indicated that Brown, in particular, pushed for Espada to take over for Baker in the dugout.

While Espada has no managerial experience at the big league level, he’s far from inexperienced after stints managing clubs in winter leagues as well as coaching in the World Baseball Classic for Team Puerto Rico in both 2013 and 2017 on top of his many seasons serving as bench coach under Hinch and Baker. That deep experience both with the Astros organization and in the dugout should make the transition a smooth one for both Espada and the players in Houston, who won’t have to adjust to a new personality leading the team and clubhouse next season. That continuity figures to be especially valuable to a club that’s cultivating a winning culture in recent years with seven straight ALCS appearances, four AL pennants and two World Series championships over the past seven seasons.

Espada’s first season as manager in Houston won’t be without challenges, however. Key veterans Martin Maldonado and Michael Brantley departed for free agency earlier this month, meaning the club will have to either replace or re-sign the duo behind the plate and in the outfield. Brantley, in particular, figures to be of importance to replace given the club’s lack of left-handed bats to provide balance to the lineup alongside Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. What’s more, the club’s starting rotation features plenty of question marks behind a front three of Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, and Cristian Javier. Though the likes of Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia could return from surgery as potential midseason reinforcements, the club currently figures to rely on the likes of Hunter Brown, Jose Urquidy, and J.P. France as potential options to fill out the club’s Opening Day rotation. That trio combined for a 4.64 ERA across 355 innings of work last year.

Despite those potential holes in the roster, there’s also reason for optimism the club will perform better than their 90-win 2023 campaign next year. After all, the club figures to get full seasons out of Verlander, whom they re-acquired in a deadline deal with the Mets this summer, and Jose Altuve, who appeared in just 90 games this season due to injuries. A full season from rookie catcher Yainer Diaz in his sophomore campaign should help bolster the club’s offense by replacing the below-average production of Maldonado’s bat in the everyday lineup, putting the Astros in decent position as they look to fend off the rival Rangers and Mariners for their fourth-consecutive AL West crown.

D-Backs, Reds, Angels Interested In Jeimer Candelario

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The Angels, Diamondbacks and Reds are among the teams that have expressed early interest in Jeimer Candelario, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The Giants are also in the third base mix, per Heyman, although it’s not clear if they’re targeting Candelario specifically.

Arizona is the most straightforward of the three teams. Evan Longoria hit free agency, leaving the Snakes with a third base group headlined by Emmanuel Rivera, Jace Peterson and rookie Jordan Lawlar. The latter is one of the sport’s most talented prospects but has only 30 games above the Double-A level. Neither Rivera nor Peterson bring much to the table offensively, with both having particularly poor second halves.

Candelario would be a clear offensive boost. The switch-hitter combined for a .251/.336/.471 line with 22 home runs in 576 plate appearances between the Nationals and Cubs this year. While a dismal year in 2022 led to a non-tender from the Tigers, Candelario has been an above-average hitter in three of the last four seasons. Going back to 2020, he sports a .254/.329/.437 mark. If Lawlar steps into an everyday role at third base or shortstop (pushing Geraldo Perdomo to the hot corner), Candelario could see action at designated hitter.

That production would also be welcome for the Angels, although their internal options have lengthier track records than do Arizona’s players. The Halos owe Anthony Rendon $114MM over the next three seasons. That could lead the organization to shy away from a notable free agent investment for another third baseman (although Candelario obviously won’t come close to Rendon’s $245MM contract). The Halos have Brandon Drury and Luis Rengifo to split time between second and third base, perhaps taking extra at-bats if Rendon again misses time to injury.

Candelario also has experience at first base, where things are a little unsettled for the Halos. Nolan Schanuel held the job for the final couple months of the season. That he managed a .402 on-base percentage against MLB pitching within weeks of being drafted out of Florida Atlantic is remarkable. Yet Schanuel has all of 22 career minor league games and didn’t provide any kind of power in his first big league look. It’s not out of the question he could require additional time against minor league pitching. The Halos’ outlook at DH, of course, is dependent on the Shohei Ohtani decision.

A match with the Reds would likely be conditional on Cincinnati making a trade. The Reds already have an infield glut. Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte are all in the corner infield mix. Jonathan India and Matt McLain project as the starting middle infield. Cincinnati general manager Nick Krall cited a lack of playing time at first base as a factor in declining their option on Joey Votto, although the $13MM difference between the option value and the buyout was surely the biggest factor.

Starting pitching is the top priority for the Cincinnati front office. That could be accomplished by dealing away a position player. Speaking in generalities, Krall told Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic that the Reds have had conversations about dealing from their talented collection of bats.

Orioles Seeking Additions For Top Half Of Rotation, Back Of Bullpen

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The Orioles’ rebuild came to a definitive end with this year’s 101-win season, and general manager Mike Elias is already speaking accordingly as he enters his sixth offseason with the team. Elias tells Mark Feinsand of MLB.com that adding a starting pitcher who “projects for the front half of the rotation would be wonderful” and that he also hopes to add a late-inning reliever — ideally someone with closing experience.

The free-agent market isn’t short on either type of pitcher. Playoff-caliber starters in free agency include Blake Snell, Sonny Gray, Aaron Nola, Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez, Lucas Giolito and Marcus Stroman, to say nothing of incoming NPB stars like 25-year-old righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto and 30-year-old lefty Shota Imanaga.

Currently, the Orioles’ rotation is set to include Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer. Assuming he’s back to health after a lengthy recovery from Tommy John surgery, southpaw John Means should slot into the group. Other options include Tyler Wells, DL Hall, Cole Irvin, Bruce Zimmermann and prospect Cade Povich (who’s not yet on the 40-man roster but will surely be added by next week). Baltimore starters ranked 11th in the Majors with a 4.14 ERA this year — a mark that includes results from current free agents Kyle Gibson and Jack Flaherty.

As far as relievers go, former O’s prospect Josh Hader tops the class and could set a record for largest contract ever given to a reliever. Beyond him, former closing options on the market include David Robertson, Jordan Hicks, Aroldis Chapman, Hector Neris and Craig Kimbrel.

The trade market, of course, will feature prominent names in both regards, but the Orioles’ payroll is practically a blank slate, which gives them the opportunity to pursue just about any pitcher — assuming ownership is willing to commit to a long-term free agent for the first time in Elias’ tenure. Incredibly, James McCann and Felix Bautista — owed a combined $3.5MM in 2024 — are the only two players guaranteed any money this coming season.

Of course, the Orioles also have a deep and talented arbitration class. Each of Anthony Santander, John Means, Danny Coulombe, Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays, Ryan O’Hearn, Dillon Tate, Jorge Mateo, Ryan Mountcastle, Cionel Perez, Cole Irvin, Keegan Akin, Jacob Webb, Ramon Urias, Tyler Wells, Ryan McKenna and recent waiver claim Sam Hilliard is eligible for arbitration. That whopping group of 17 players projects to combine for $56.17MM in arbitration, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Some from the bunch will be non-tendered or traded, but the most expensive names among the bunch (Santander, Mullins, Hays, Means, Mountcastle) seem likely to stay put.

Not long ago, a reliever with closing experience might not have seemed like a dire need for the O’s, but All-Star Felix Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery in October and is expected to miss the entire 2024 campaign as a result. The O’s have another All-Star, Yennier Cano, as a potential alternative option in the ninth inning, though he was far more successful in the season’s first three months (1.14 ERA) than in the second three (3.24 ERA). That’s not at all to suggest he can’t be an effective endgame option for the Birds, but rather to simply point out that as the year progressed, Cano didn’t quite look to be Bautista’s equal (as he did in the earlygoing).

The Orioles’ ability to add to the pitching staff (and payroll in general) is only buoyed by the fact that so much of the team’s excellent young core is not yet even into arbitration. Each of Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Bradish, Rodriguez and Cano will make league minimum or only slightly more in 2024. The same is true of prospects like Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad, Coby Mayo and Jackson Holliday, each of whom could play a significant role for the ’24 club.

It’ll likely become a rather expensive core at some point, but for the time being, their minimal financial commitments give the O’s considerable flexibility to creatively pursue just about any pitcher they like. High-profile arms seeking short-term rebound deals could fit into the payroll for a year or two without issue, and if the Orioles want to pursue a longer-term fit, they could always frontload the contract to pay out more of the guarantee in 2024-25, when the so much of the roster is still in its pre-arbitration years.

Dodgers Showing Interest In Teoscar Hernandez

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The Dodgers have expressed interest in Teoscar Hernández, reports Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times (X link). General manager Brandon Gomes told reporters this afternoon that a corner outfielder was among the items on the team’s offseason checklist (relayed by Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic).

Hernández is one of the higher-upside bats on a market light on free agent hitting. A two-time Silver Slugger award winner, he hit .283/.333/.519 for the Blue Jays between 2020-22. He hits the open market on the heels of an underwhelming platform season, however. After an offseason trade to the Mariners, Hernández put together a .258/.305/.435 line across 678 trips to the plate.

He’s still a solid source of right-handed power, connecting on 26 home runs this past season. It was an atypically streaky offensive performance, as excellent showings in June and August were muted by below-average play in the other four months. Seattle made the somewhat surprising decision not to issue Hernández a qualifying offer. Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto explained yesterday the club wanted to pivot in a more contact-oriented direction.

Even at his best, Hernández brings a lot of swing-and-miss. He fanned in 31.1% of his plate appearances this year and has gone down on strikes more than 28% of the time through the past four seasons. The profile is built more around power than strong on-base skills.

MLBTR nevertheless predicts Hernández to find a four-year pact that pays around $20MM annually, slotting him as the #12 free agent. He recently turned 31 and is arguably the #4 position player in the class behind Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman. Hernández has a bat-first reputation but logged nearly 1200 right field innings with Seattle, grading as a league average corner outfield defender by Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average.

Los Angeles can go in a number of directions on the position player front. They’re presently shorthanded in the corner outfield and designated hitter mix after Jason Heyward, J.D. Martinez and David Peralta reached free agency. L.A. will obviously be among the teams pursuing Ohtani and could look to bring Martinez and/or Heyward back depending on how the offseason progresses.

Mookie Betts showed the ability to play an effective second base in addition to his Gold Glove caliber outfield work. Gomes indicated the Dodgers would continue to get Betts into action at the keystone, noting that the club plans to give plenty of shortstop work to Gavin Lux. The 25-year-old infielder missed the entire season after tearing the ACL in his right knee during Spring Training. The Dodgers have glove-first veteran Miguel Rojas under contract but could kick him into a utility role if Lux steps into something approaching an everyday shortstop job.

Meanwhile, Gomes added that younger infielders Miguel Vargas and Michael Busch could find their way into the corner outfield (via Ardaya). They’ve each seen limited time in left field in the minors but are primarily second and third basemen. Neither player has hit well against MLB pitching in limited looks but they have accomplished offensive track records in Triple-A. Given the multi-positional flexibility throughout the roster, the Dodgers can go in a number of ways over the coming months.

Bryce Harper To Play First Base Going Forward

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Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told reporters, including Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe, that Bryce Harper will play first base going forward. Chelsea Janes of The Washington Post adds that free agent Rhys Hoskins has been informed of the decision with the position player mix pretty set. Dombrowski added that the club sees Kyle Schwarber as its everyday designated hitter, per Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. Though Harper could conceivably split his time between first and the outfielder, Dombrowski says he wanted Harper to be “in a position where he would play one or the other,” per Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Harper, 31, had just two appearances at first base in the first decade of his career, but recent circumstances forced a change. In May of 2022, he was diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. That meant he was unable to throw, though the issue didn’t prevent him from hitting. The Phils kept him in the designated hitter slot for the rest of that campaign as Harper’s excellence at the plate helped them reach the World Series.

After they were defeated by the Astros, Harper finally went under the knife, undergoing Tommy John surgery in November of last year. As he was working his way back to health, long-time first baseman Rhys Hoskins torn the ACL in his left knee during a Spring Training game, an ailment that eventually prevented him from appearing at any point in the 2023 season.

Harper went on to beat all projections for his post-surgery recovery and was able to be reinstated by early May, barely five months after his operation. He was limited to designated hitter duties initially but was eventually cleared to take the field. Since a first baseman is rarely required to throw at maximum effort, the club put him at that position as opposed to putting him back in his typical right field spot, which would have required more throws at maximum effort. The Phils used a combination of Alec Bohm, Darick Hall, Kody Clemens and Drew Ellis to cover the spot in the first half but that group largely ceded to Harper in the second half.

He made his first start at first base on July 21 and eventually made 36 appearances in total in the regular season, then stayed there for the club’s 13 playoff games. Advanced defensive metrics generally considered him to be around league average, though in a fairly small sample of work. Having Harper at that spot freed up the club to move Schwarber, who is considered a poor defender, from left field to DH on most nights. The Phils then split the outfield duties between Nick Castellanos, Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas, Cristian Pache and Jake Cave.

After the season, it was an open question as to where Harper would be slotted going forward. By the time the 2024 campaign rolled around, he presumably would have been far enough from his surgery to head back to the grass. But with Schwarber and those five outfielders all still on the roster next year, that would have further crowded things out there, forcing the club to perhaps trade someone while also perhaps looking to external first base options.

But the club will stick with Harper at first, which doesn’t leave a space for Hoskins, who is now a free agent. It seems Dombrowski did him the courtesy of letting him know so that he can spend the winter looking elsewhere for his next gig. He hit 148 home runs for the Phillies from 2017 to 2022 but it seems his next homer will be hit in a different uniform. MLBTR recently ranked Hoskins #26 on our list of the Top 50 Free Agents, predicting a pillow contract of two years and $36MM.

This also could have ramifications for Bohm and the third base market. He hasn’t received strong grades for his glovework at the hot corner, which made the Phils a speculative fit to add a player there and move Bohm over to cover first, as he did when Hoskins and Harper were both unavailable. But if Harper is going to be implanted at first, it suggests the club feels fairly confident about Bohm at third. They could always sign someone like Matt Chapman and then make Bohm available in trades but the roster fit isn’t as clean with this development.

It would appear then that the club will be primarily focused on pitching for the rest of the winter, since the position player corps is considered to be in good shape. Aaron Nola is now a free agent and retaining him or finding someone else to replace him would seem to be the logical priority for the club in the months to come, though new developments can always change the calculus over the course of the offseason.

Angels Hire Ron Washington As Manager

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The Angels have hired Braves third base coach Ron Washington to fill their managerial vacancy, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. He has signed a two-year contract with the club, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The Angels have now announced the hiring of Washington.

The Angels parted ways with manager Phil Nevin as the 2023 regular season was winding down and recent reporting suggested they were leaning towards an experienced manager to take the gig. Washington, 72 in April, surely fits the bill there. After his playing career ended, he quickly transitioned into a coaching role in the early ’90s, working for the Mets and Athletics.

He got his first managerial gig with the Rangers going into 2007. After a few middling seasons, the club broke out in 2010 and 2011. They won 90 and 96 games in those two seasons, respectively, going to the World Series both times. Though they didn’t win the title in either of those trips, those remained the only two World Series appearances in franchise history until the club finally won it all here in 2023.

The Rangers won 93 games in 2012 but lost the Wild Card game to the Orioles. Another 91 wins followed in 2013 but that left them just a single game out of the playoffs. Things took a sour turn in 2014, with the club falling in the standings. They would eventually finish 67-95 and in last place in the American League West, but Washington was already gone by then. He resigned in early September, citing an off-the-field matter, which he later admitted was an extramarital affair.

He has been in various coaching roles since that time, having joined the Athletics in May of 2015 and then Atlanta going into 2017. He has received interest from clubs with managerial vacancies over those years but this will now be his first gig as a bench boss since that eight-year stretch with the Rangers. His hiring appears to be part of a trend among some clubs who have opted for experienced managers of late. The Astros hired Dusty Baker going into 2020 when he was 70. The Rangers hired 67-year-old Bruce Bochy a year ago, just one season after the Mets hired 65-year-old Buck Showalter.

The latter was considered a candidate for this job with the Halos but it appears he lost out to Washington. The club seemed to cast a wide net, reportedly considering options like Benji Gil, Darin Erstad, Torii Hunter, Tim Salmon, Ron Roenicke, Gary DiSarcina, Ray Montgomery and perhaps others.

Washington will now take over a team that hasn’t had much success and it’s hard to tell what their path forward is at the moment. Despite having superstars Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout on the club for the past six years, the Halos haven’t found any real on-field success in that time. Their last winning season was 2015, last playoff appearance was 2014 and last postseason victory was 2009. Now Ohtani is a free agent while Trout is 32 years old and has dealt with significant injury issues in recent years.

That makes it hard to gauge where they will go over the two years of this deal. Re-signing Ohtani is still on the table but it’s also possible he winds up somewhere else. Some have suggested the club should consider a rebuild in that scenario but it’s unclear if the club’s decision makers would agree with that assessment.

There should be more clarity in the months to come, but the Angels now have a skipper and can move on to figuring out those other unknowns. This hiring leaves three open manager positions around the league, with the Astros, Padres and Brewers still looking for a new bench boss for 2024. Meanwhile, Atlanta will have to find a new third base coach.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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