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Pirates Sign Rowdy Tellez

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The Pirates announced the signing of first baseman Rowdy Tellez on a one-year contract. It’s reportedly a $3.2MM guarantee. Tellez, who is represented by Primo Sports Group, can earn an additional $800K in incentives.

Tellez has spent the past two and a half seasons in the NL Central as a member of the Brewers. He connected on 35 home runs as recently as 2022. Tellez’s power numbers evaporated last season, as he slumped to 13 longballs through 351 trips to the plate. His slugging percentage fell from .461 to a fringy .376 mark.

Overall, the left-handed hitter turned in a .215/.291/.376 line in 106 contests this year. That’s clearly insufficient for a player whose profile is built around the bat. Tellez doesn’t offer any baserunning value and rates as a below-average defender at first base. Combined with his career-worst showing in the batter’s box, he was below replacement level in 2023.

Pittsburgh takes a low-cost roll of the dice to see if Tellez can recapture some of his previous form. He carried a career .236/.307/.462 line into last season. While that’s still middling production from an average and on-base perspective, he’d shown legitimate power upside. Tellez’s 2023 numbers may have been impacted somewhat by health questions. He lost a couple weeks in July with right forearm inflammation before sustaining a fracture on the ring finger of his left hand in an outfield collision while chasing fly balls during batting practice. That kept him out of action until the middle of August.

The 28-year-old was eligible for arbitration for a final time this offseason. Milwaukee declined to tender him a contract at a projected $5.9MM salary. He’ll indeed come up shy of that figure on the open market but he’ll get a big league opportunity for a rebound showing. Tellez will surpass six years of service time next season and return to free agency at year’s end.

Pittsburgh had a clear need for first base help. The Bucs trade Carlos Santana at the deadline, sending the veteran switch-hitter to Milwaukee in a move that was necessitated for the Brewers by Tellez’s struggles and injuries. Pittsburgh relied mostly on Alfonso Rivas down the stretch; they waived him at season’s end and lost him to the Guardians. Santana returned to free agency, leaving the potential for a reunion, but the Bucs will take what is likely to be a lower-cost shot on Tellez instead.

A left-handed hitter, Tellez seems a likely platoon partner for Connor Joe. The latter produced a .265/.365/.452 showing against left-handed pitching last year. Tellez owns a .231/.302/.464 career slash versus righty arms.

Pittsburgh’s player payroll is up to roughly $58MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. The Bucs opened the ’23 season around $73MM. GM Ben Cherington said at the Winter Meetings the team anticipates surpassing last year’s spending level. That could leave $20MM+ in further space for the front office, which’ll likely look for a mid-rotation arm and perhaps second base help in the coming weeks.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Pirates were in agreement with Tellez. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported it was a one-year deal that guaranteed roughly $3MM and maxed out at $4MM with incentives. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette specified the $3.2MM guarantee.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Max Scherzer Undergoes Back Surgery

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The Rangers announced Friday that right-hander Max Scherzer underwent surgery to repair a herniated disc in his back. General manager Chris Young tells reporters that the team and Scherzer tried “multiple conservative treatments in pain management” before resorting to surgery (link via Kennedi Landry of MLB.com). Unfortunately, the last-resort option was apparently deemed necessary, and the operation will sideline Scherzer into June or even July.

“After returning to my offseason home in Florida, my discomfort in my back continued to get worse,” Scherzer himself said, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. “During this time, I received a diagnosis of a herniated disc. After several conservative treatments and consulting with multiple specialists, I made the decision to have the recommended surgery. Getting this procedure done now will give me the best chance to pitch as much as possible for the Rangers in 2024. I look forward to putting in the rehab work and getting back on the mound next summer.”

It’s obviously unwelcome news for the Rangers, who just gave up Luisangel Acuña to acquire Scherzer and cash from the Mets at last year’s deadline. As part of that deal, the Scherzer agreed to pick up his 2024 player option so that the club knew it was getting him for more than just a rental situation. Now he will miss at least half of the upcoming season that was obviously important to them.

These back problems aren’t coming out of the blue today. Scherzer was removed from Game 3 of the World Series after just three innings due to issue with his back, varyingly described as tightness or spasms. He was removed from the club’s roster prior to Game 4. Though the club was able to secure the title without him, it seems the issue lingered and ultimately required a significant surgery.

The club is now in a very peculiar situation in terms of their rotation, with the first half outlook wildly different than the second. Jacob deGrom underwent Tommy John surgery in June and could potentially return late in the 2024 campaign, depending on how his rehab goes. The club also signed Tyler Mahle just yesterday, who is on a similar timeline to deGrom, having undergone his own TJS procedure in May.

That means the club could welcome each of Scherzer, Mahle and deGrom back to the club over the course of 2024, but none of them will factor into the Opening Day rotation. For now, that leaves them with Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning as healthy options for the start of the season. Options for the back end would include Cody Bradford or Owen White, though they could also pursue external additions in the weeks to come.

This will likely give the club some interesting calculations to make. Last month, general manager Chris Young suggested their spending would likely be more modest this offseason, when compared to the big money they’ve recently thrown around on those aforementioned pitchers as well as Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. Although the club just won the World Series and surely banked some extra playoff money, there’s uncertainty around their broadcast revenues due to the ongoing bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, the owner of the Bally Sports network. The club’s competitive balance tax figure is currently at $233MM, per Roster Resource, just barely below next year’s base threshold of $237MM.

Rosenthal took a look at their situation earlier today, noting that the club was still interested in Clayton Kershaw, who underwent shoulder surgery and is yet another pitcher slated for a midseason return. That column came out before the Scherzer news, so it’s unknown if the club would still want to use its limited payroll room to bring in yet another pitcher that will miss the first half of the season.

But Rosenthal also adds that, if ownership becomes more comfortable with adding payroll, they could pivot to a reunion with Jordan Montgomery or one of the top starters on the trading block. Even with Glasnow seemingly headed to the Dodgers, pitchers like Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber or Corbin Burnes could be available for the right price.

If the club plans to stick with their conservative offseason, it may involve taking a risk on having limited pitching depth in the first half while banking on the returns of those injured guys for a strong second half push. But improving that depth might require them to alter their spending plans and/or go into luxury tax territory.

Royals Finalizing Two-Year Deal With Hunter Renfroe

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The Royals are reportedly finalizing a deal with outfielder Hunter Renfroe, which is pending a physical. The McKinnis Sports client will get $13MM over two years, with $500K in incentives also available each year. He will make $5.5MM in 2024 and $7.5MM in 2025, but can opt out after the first season.

It’s been a busy week for the Royals, who have signed pitchers Seth Lugo and Will Smith, while also reportedly agreeing to a deal with Chris Stratton. They also had known interest in buttressing their outfield, having been connected to Tyler O’Neill in recent rumors. But the Cardinals flipped O’Neill to the Red Sox and it seems the Royals have pivoted to the free agent market.

Renfroe, 32 in January, has been incredibly nomadic in recent seasons, which is likely a reflection of his enticing power but limited overall profile. He began his career with the Padres but has subsequently bounced to the Rays, Red Sox, Brewers, Angels and Reds, meaning he’s worn six jerseys in the past five years, with this deal set to make it seven in six.

Since becoming a full-time player in 2017, he has hit at least 20 home runs in each full season, as well as eight in the shortened 2020 campaign. He’s also reached the 30-homer plateau twice. But he also doesn’t have huge batting average or on-base percentages. His career batting line of .239/.300/.478 amounts to a wRC+ of 106, indicating he’s been a bit above league average on the whole.

But that’s come in fairly inconsistent fashion on a year-to-year basis. In 2019, he hit 33 home runs, but that was the “juiced ball” season. Since he struck out in 31.2% of his plate appearances and had a .289 OBP, he was actually a smidge below league average, 99 wRC+. He was flipped to Tampa and then had significant struggles in 2020, despite the eight homers. The Rays traded him to the Red Sox, which led to a bounceback season and Boston flipping him to the Brewers for prospects, taking on Jackie Bradley Jr. in the process. Renfroe hit 60 homers over those seasons with Boston and Milwaukee, slashing .257/.315/.496 for a wRC+ of 118.

Yet another trade to the Halos preceded yet another downturn. He hit 19 homers but his .242/.304/.434 line had his wRC+ at 99 again. As the club fell out of contention, they put multiple players on waivers to try to dip below the luxury tax. Renfroe was one one them and he was claimed by the Reds. In 14 games with that club, he hit a dismal .128/.227/.205 and was released.

Renfroe isn’t a burner on the basepaths, having stolen just 14 bases in his career and none in 2023. Defensively, he’s generally been subpar. He has a career tally of -9 Outs Above Average as an outfielder while Ultimate Zone Rating has given him a grade of -5.1. Defensive Runs Saved has him at +13 but most of that is due to a +19 grade in 2019, which looks like a clear outlier.

Though Renfroe hasn’t been an all-around performer, his strengths have been enough for him to have value. Per FanGraphs’ versions of Wins Above Replacement, he produced between 1.5 and 2.5 wins in the four full seasons prior to 2023. He’s definitely coming off a weaker platform season, 0.6 fWAR, but he was at 1.1 before the waiver claim and hasty move to Cincinnati.

The Royals had plenty of questions in their outfield and don’t need Renfroe to be a superstar for him to count as an upgrade. Their outfielders hit a collective .228/.294/.393 in 2023 for a wRC+ of 83. Nelson Velázquez earned himself a role in 2024 with a power surge in 2023, but he could perhaps see some DH time since his glovework isn’t strongly rated. MJ Melendez could be in a corner but he’s coming off a disappointing season and has been in trade rumors, with some clubs perhaps willing to move him back to catcher. Center fielders Kyle Isbel and Drew Waters are good defenders but both are coming off poor seasons offensively. Edward Olivares and Dairon Blanco are also in the mix but have limited track records.

For a club coming off a 106-loss season, there’s merit to adding a guy like Renfroe who has a decent chance of being a solid regular. If he does so and the club remains a non-contender over the course of the deal, he could perhaps turn into a trade chip at some point. For Renfroe himself, he was able to lock in a decent chunk of change while also securing the ability to return to the open market a year from now if he can have a better platform.

This is the third time the Royals have given an opt-out this winter, with Lugo and Stratton also getting one in their deals. Perhaps the club is using this as a bit of an edge to lure players to a club that may not be the first choice of some free agents. The club hasn’t been a huge spender traditionally and has been producing poor results in recent years, but perhaps giving players some extra contractual agency has allowed them to overcome some of those obstacles.

General manager J.J. Picollo recently threw out $30MM as a ballpark figure for what the club could spend this winter to upgrade the 2024 club. The deals with Lugo, Smith, Stratton and Renfroe add up to $29.5MM. But news is now breaking about a deal with Michael Wacha, which also has an opt-out, so it seems the club wasn’t rigidly tied to that spending level.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first had the two sides nearing agreement on what was expected to be a one-year deal plus a player option. Anne Rogers of MLB.com relayed that the deal is still pending a physical. Jon Heyman of The New York Post confirmed the two-year/opt-out structure and relayed the $13MM guarantee and incentives. Feinsand then relayed the specific financial breakdown.

Dodgers, Rays Agree To Tyler Glasnow Trade; Extension With Dodgers Expected

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The Dodgers and Rays are in agreement on a trade that would send right-hander Tyler Glasnow, outfielder Manuel Margot and $4MM to Los Angeles, with right-hander Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny Deluca going to Tampa. The deal is contingent on Glasnow signing an extension with the Dodgers, which is reportedly expected to get done.

Glasnow has been in trade rumors for weeks but this framework of players was reported on yesterday, but without a deal being completed before the end of the day. Passan reports that the extension window opened Thursday morning. The details of the extension talks aren’t publicly known but it seems there is some optimism that it will get done, and the trade along with it. Glasnow is from the Los Angeles area initially, which could perhaps help to facilitate a deal. The trade-and-extend path is rare in baseball but not entirely unprecedented. The Reds took this path with Sonny Gray going into 2019, acquiring him and signing him to a three-year extension.

The right-handed Glasnow has already signed one extension in his career, which is how this situation developed. In August of 2022, as he was coming back from Tommy John surgery, the Rays and Glasnow agreed to an extension. It would pay him $5.35MM in 2023, his final year of arbitration eligibility, and then a big jump to $25MM in 2024. Glasnow had battled significant health issues in his career but was able to lock in a huge payday before fully returning from surgery and re-establishing his health. The Rays, meanwhile, got an extra year of control by betting on Glasnow’s eventual return.

Glasnow did return to the mound late in that 2022 season, making two regular season starts and then another in the postseason. Here in 2023, he was healthy enough to take the ball 21 times and registered a 3.53 earned run average. The Rays subsequently lost plenty of other starting pitchers, with each of Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs undergoing significant elbow surgery in 2023.

All those factors combined to put the club in a tight spot, along with the finances. They have never run a payroll beyond the $80MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but came into the offseason projected for something closer to $120MM. Moving Glasnow and his $25MM salary in 2024 was one of the most straightforward ways for the club to cut costs, but that would only exacerbate their rotation concerns. Reports in recent weeks had suggested they were looking to acquire younger, cheaper pitching in any Glasnow deal. They have accomplished that with this trade and have also done the same thing in the outfield.

For the Dodgers, they already made the biggest splash of the offseason by landing Shohei Ohtani, but he isn’t going to pitch in 2024 due to his recent elbow surgery. Even after that lengthy Ohtani courtship, they still had a lot of work to do in their rotation. Lance Lynn, Julio Urías and Clayton Kershaw all reached free agency at season’s end. Kershaw has re-signed with the club many times before but he is recovering from shoulder surgery that will keep him out until at least the middle of the season. Dustin May is in a similar position after his flexor tendon surgery and Tommy John revision. Tony Gonsolin had Tommy John surgery and could miss all of 2024.

That left the club with Walker Buehler, who missed all of 2023 due to his own TJS, and Bobby Miller as their rotation core coming into the offseason. They had other options, including Pepiot, Michael Grove, Ryan Yarbrough, Emmet Sheehan and Gavin Stone, but it was obviously an area for the club to target this winter.

Glasnow now hasn’t been the picture of health in his career. His 120 innings pitched in 2023 were actually a career high. But a lot of that is due to the pandemic limiting him to 11 starts in 2020, and then the TJS impacting the two seasons after. In 2023, he did miss time with an oblique strain but his arm seemed to be fine.

His results on a rate basis have been very strong. Going back to the start of 2019, he has a 3.03 ERA. He struck out 35% of batters faced in that time, walked just 7.7% and kept 47.2% of balls in play on the ground. The Dodgers have generally been unafraid to gamble on talented arms with injury risk and Glasnow is the latest example of that.

The club will also bolster their outfield mix in this deal. With Mookie Betts moving to second base essentially full-time next year, the club’s outfield mix consisted of James Outman in center with Chris Taylor and Jason Heyward projected for the corners. Heyward had a nice bounceback season in 2023 but did so while the Dodgers shielded him from left-handed pitching.

Margot hits from the right side and should fit in nicely then. He has generally been a subpar hitter overall but does well with the platoon advantage. He’s hit .281/.341/.420 against lefties in his career for a 109 wRC+ compared to an 82 wRC+ and .244/.294/.370 line against righties.

He’s generally been a strong defender in his career. The grades for his glovework slipped a bit in 2023 but he was coming off a 2022 that he mostly missed due to a significant strain of the patellar tendon in his right knee. The Dodgers will likely be hoping that he’s able to post better results now that he’s further removed from that injury, but if he’s due for a part-time role, it won’t be devastating if that doesn’t come to fruition.

For the Rays, this is a classic trade for them. Due to their low payrolls, they often find themselves trading away players as their salaries increase and they get closer to free agency. The hope is always to acquire players that are younger, cheaper and with more club control, though they are also less established at the big league level. Glasnow is set to make $25MM next year while Margot is still owed $12MM, which includes a $10MM salary in 2024 and a $2MM buyout on a 2025 club option. Since they are including $4MM in the deal, this will save them $33MM, while hopefully keeping the talent on the roster minimally impacted.

Pepiot, 26, was a third-round pick in the 2019 draft and subsequently became a top 100 prospect. In 2022, he was able to throw 91 1/3 innings in Triple-A with a 2.56 ERA and 30.9% strikeout rate. He also made his major league debut, with a 3.47 ERA in his first 36 1/3 innings. While Gonsolin was sidelined to start the 2023 season, Pepiot was named the club’s fifth starter out of spring. Unfortunately, he then suffered an oblique strain that kept him on the injured list until August. He eventually tossed 42 more innings at the big league level with a 2.14 ERA.

The young righty has just over a year of service time, meaning he won’t be eligible for arbitration until after 2025 and won’t reach free agency until after 2028 at the earliest. He also still has an option remaining, which gives the club some flexibility if they feel he needs some more seasoning, since he has just 78 1/3 innings of major league experience.

But he would likely project to be in the club’s Opening Day rotation right now. They could make more moves between now and then, but they currently have Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale as the most seasoned in the bunch. Zack Littell has been around a few years but only recently moved from the bullpen to the rotation. Shane Baz missed all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery but should be back in 2024, perhaps with workload concerns. Taj Bradley is also part of the calculus but he had an underwhelming debut in 2023. Amid all of those questions, there should be a path for Pepiot to carve out a role for himself, though subsequent transactions could perhaps make that more challenging.

Deluca, 25, has 24 games of major league experience to this point. He only walked in 6.7% of his plate appearances but also kept his strikeouts down to a 17.8% clip. His .262/.311/.429 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 102. He has performed very well in the minors over the past two years. Since the start of 2022, he’s appeared in 171 games on the farm with 42 home runs, a 10.4% walk rate and 16.7% strikeout rate. His .274/.365/.552 batting line in that time leads to a 135 wRC+.

He still has a couple of options but could try to earn himself a job in the big leagues this year. The club’s outfield projects to include Jose Siri, Randy Arozarena and Josh Lowe, with Luke Raley and others also in the mix. Arozarena has also been in trade rumors but this deal could perhaps lessen the needs for the Rays to continue dropping the payroll.

Ultimately, none of this is confirmed, as it all stills hinges on the Glasnow extension getting done. Though there’s optimism around getting that over the finish line, no details about those talks have filtered out yet. Assuming it is completed, the Rays will have done what they always do, cycling out expensive players for cheaper ones that they hope to mold to a similar talent level. The Dodgers are picking up win-now pieces, while the Glasnow extension will help them down the road as well. Buehler is slated for free agency after 2024 but Glasnow could perhaps be joined by Gonsolin and May by then, while some of the other young arms while hopefully have blossomed in the interim.

Both clubs likely still have significant moves to make in the months to come. The Dodgers still could use some more starting pitching, even with Glasnow in the fold, while the Rays could perhaps use their cost savings to pursue rotation additions of their own.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post first relayed that a Glasnow extension was a possibility. Jeff Passan of ESPN relayed that the deal was agreed to, contingent on that Glasnow extension. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first relayed the inclusion of the $4MM.

Rangers Sign Tyler Mahle To Two-Year Deal

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The Rangers have taken another upside shot in the rotation, signing Tyler Mahle to a two-year contract. It’s reportedly a $22MM guarantee for the ISE Baseball client, who can earn up to $5MM more in bonuses depending on his 2025 innings tally. He will have a salary of $5.5MM in 2024 and $16.5MM in 2025, and the deal comes with a limited no-trade clause. He’ll miss the start of the ’24 season as he completes his rehab from last season’s Tommy John surgery. Texas has two additional openings on the 40-man roster.

Mahle spent a season and a half with the Twins. Minnesota acquired the right-hander from the Reds at the 2022 trade deadline. It turned out to be one of the more lopsided deadline deals of the past couple summers. Cincinnati acquired Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and prospect Steve Hajjar, whom they subsequently flipped to the Guardians as part of a deal for Will Benson.

Unfortunately for Minnesota, injuries ruined their end of the deal. Mahle landed on the injured list within a few weeks of his acquisition as a result of shoulder inflammation. He returned, pitched once, then went back on the IL for the remainder of the season. Mahle looked back to form early in 2023, working to a 3.16 ERA over five starts. He suffered an elbow injury during his outing on April 27 and underwent the Tommy John procedure a couple weeks later.

That ended his season and ultimately, his tenure with the Twins. Given the approximate 14-month recovery timeline often associated with TJS rehab, he could return sometime around the All-Star Break. That would put Mahle on a similar trajectory as Jacob deGrom, who underwent the same surgery around four weeks later.

While Mahle wouldn’t bring the same level of upside as deGrom, he’d be a high-ceiling addition in his own right. The 29-year-old developed into a quality mid-rotation starter late in his time in Cincinnati. Between 2020 and the ’22 deadline, he worked to a 3.93 ERA in 332 innings spanning 62 appearances. Mahle punched out an above-average 27.4% of batters faced over that stretch against a manageable 8.9% walk rate. Despite pitching in a difficult home park, he allowed only 1.1 home runs per nine innings.

Mahle’s velocity has been down a bit over the past two seasons, which isn’t surprising given the arm issues. In 2021, he averaged 94 MPH on his four-seam with a plus cutter/slider that sat around 87 MPH. Mahle has a splitter to deploy against left-handed hitters and has posted neutral platoon numbers over his career.

If he can recapture his pre-surgery form, Mahle would fit into the middle or back end of a quality Texas rotation. The Rangers haven’t been shy about taking on injury risk to pursue high-upside starters. deGrom was the prime example, of course, but each of Mahle, Jon Gray, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney were talented fliers in the middle tiers of the starting pitching market.

Max Scherzer anchors the season-opening staff. Eovaldi, Gray, Heaney and Dane Dunning project to fill out the remainder of the Opening Day five. Texas should have more clarity on the respective health statuses of deGrom and Mahle as next summer’s trade deadline approaches.

Mahle’s contract narrowly tops MLBTR’s two-year, $20MM prediction. It’s just north of the $20MM guarantee secured by Rockies right-hander Germán Márquez, a similar caliber of pitcher who signed for two years after undergoing Tommy John surgery in May. Mahle, who turned 29 in September, is on track to get back to free agency in advance of his age-31 season in 2026.

The $11MM average annual value brings the Rangers’ competitive balance tax number to roughly $232MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That’s just below next season’s $237MM base threshold. Texas carried an approximate $252MM luxury tax number last season. While their championship run surely brought in a fair amount of playoff revenue, the organization is also facing some uncertainty about its local television rights contract. GM Chris Young indicated at the Winter Meetings that the team would be a little quieter in free agency than they’d been in the past few offseasons.

Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the $22MM guarantee and $5MM in performance bonuses. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the specific annual breakdown and limited no-trade.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Giants Sign Jung Hoo Lee To Six-Year Deal

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December 14: The Giants have officially announced the deal and provided the full salary breakdown. Lee will get a $5MM signing bonus then salaries of $7MM in 2024 $16MM the year after, $22MM in 2026-27 and $20.5MM in each of the final two years if he doesn’t opt out after the fourth.

December 12: The Giants and outfielder Jung Hoo Lee are in agreement on a six-year, $113MM deal, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. There is an opt-out after four years. In addition to that guarantee, the Giants will owe a posting fee of $18.825MM to the Kiwoom Heroes. Lee is a client of the Boras Corporation.

Lee, 25, has been a highly anticipated free agent for a long time now. It was reported in January that the Kiwoom Heroes of the Korea Baseball Organization would post him for MLB clubs after the 2023 campaign. At that point, Lee was coming off an excellent 2022 campaign.

He had always had strong plate discipline but took that part of his game to new heights last year, walking in 10.5% of his plate appearances while striking out in just 5.1% of them. He had never hit more than 15 home runs in a season but managed to tally 23 in that season. He finished with a batting line of .349/.421/.575 for a wRC+ of 175, indicating he was 75 percent better than league average. He also won a Golden Glove award for a fifth straight year and also earned MVP honors.

But his platform year didn’t go quite according to plan. He hit .318/.406/.455 with just six homers in his 86 games in 2023. He injured his left ankle in late July, necessitating season-ending surgery. Nonetheless, he garnered plenty of interest from clubs like the Giants, Padres, Yankees and Mets before being officially posted last week.

The profile was somewhat similar to Masataka Yoshida, who was another contact-over-power player coming from overseas. Yoshida played in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball until signing with the Red Sox for 2023 on a five-year, $90MM deal. Since the NPB is generally considered a notch above the KBO, that could perhaps lead an observer to preferring his track record to Lee’s.

But there are a couple of reasons why Lee might be preferable, one of which is age. The ability to sign an everyday player who is just 25 years of age doesn’t occur very often, and the widespread interest in both Lee and Yoshinobu Yamamoto shows that clubs place value on that youth. Yoshida, by contract, was coming over for his age-29 season. Lee’s opt-out gives him the chance to potentially return to the open market before his 30th birthday, after perhaps having proven himself capable as a major leaguer.

The other thing Lee appears to have over Yoshida is defensive acumen. Yoshida was considered a left-field-only player before signing and was graded poorly for his glovework with Boston, which could lead to him spending more time as a designated hitter over the years. Lee, however, is considered strong in the field. Evaluators are split on whether or not he can stick in center, where he spent most of his time with the Heroes. In Major League Baseball, he could be either a passable center fielder or better suited to a corner, depending on who you ask.

All of the questions make Lee difficult to project and it seems fair to categorize this as a high-risk, high-reward play. As recently pointed out by Eno Sarris of The Athletic, Lee’s batted ball metrics come in a bit below those of Ha-Seong Kim in his last KBO season. Kim struggled in his first MLB season, though eventually adjusted enough to be slightly above average at the plate in each of the past two seasons. MLBTR predicted that Lee would secure a five-year, $50MM deal, but the Giants have soared well past that, more than doubling it. Given their strong investment here, they likely have high confidence in Lee, both in his ability to hit major league pitching and perhaps stick in center field as well.

Just as the offseason was kicking off, president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi stated that defensive upgrades in the outfield were a priority for this winter. “We’ll look to add a little bit more speed, a little bit more range to the outfield,” Zaidi said at that time. There were good reasons for such a target. The club’s outfielders posted a collective -13 Outs Above Average in 2023, with only the Cardinals and Rockies coming in below them. Their -7 Defensive Runs Saved and -12.4 Ultimate Zone Rating also fell in the bottom 10 league wide.

The Giants didn’t really have a full-time center fielder in 2023, as no player lined up there for more than 57 games. Each of Luis Matos, Mike Yastrzemski, Austin Slater, Bryce Johnson, Brett Wisely and Wade Meckler got into double digits, while Tyler Fitzgerald, Cal Stevenson, Heliot Ramos, LaMonte Wade Jr. and AJ Pollock had brief stints there. The club is likely hoping that Lee can solidify that position while pushing Yastrzemski into the corner outfield mix alongside guys like Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto. Matos may wind up back in the minors after a mediocre MLB debut in 2023, or perhaps the club would consider putting him on the trading block.

In addition to the $113MM that Lee will receive, the Giants will also owe a posting fee to the Heroes. With any player posted for MLB clubs, the signing team owes a fee to the posting club, relative to the size of the contract. It’s 20% of the first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. For this deal, the Giants will owe $18.825MM to the Heroes on this deal, meaning they are actually shelling out $131.825MM in order to add Lee to the roster.

In recent years, the Giants have tried to sign star players and have come up just short. They were in the running for Aaron Judge last year before he returned to the Yankees. They had a deal in place with Carlos Correa before they balked at his physical and walked away, leading to him returning to the Twins. They were in the running for Shohei Ohtani this offseason before he signed with the Dodgers.

Lee doesn’t quite match up to those players in terms of star power but this is easily the largest investment of Zaidi’s tenure. The club gave a $90MM extension to Logan Webb but the biggest free agent deals in recent years were $44MM to Carlos Rodón and $43.5MM to Haniger. The Rodón deal had an opt-out after the first year that was eventually triggered, so the club didn’t even pay out that full contract.

The specific contract breakdown hasn’t been reported but that won’t be relevant for the competitive balance tax, which goes by the average annual value of a deal. Roster Resource has already plugged in Lee’s AAV and has the Giants’ CBT number at $189MM. It’s unknown if they are willing to cross the $237MM base threshold next year, but even if not, they could still have around $45MM to pursue upgrades elsewhere on the roster.

For the clubs that missed out on Lee, free agency still features capable center fielders like Cody Bellinger, Harrison Bader, Kevin Kiermaier and Michael A. Taylor, while the trade market could feature players like Dylan Carlson or Manuel Margot.

Dodgers, Rays Discussing Deal Involving Tyler Glasnow, Manuel Margot

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December 14: Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports today that the two sides are still discussing a trade. He says that “word is” the Dodgers “may also be” interested in an extension. It’s unclear what level of interest Glasnow has in an extension.

December 13, 1:00pm: No trade between the two parties is imminent, per Jack Harris of the L.A. Times. While Harris also hears this framework is being discussed, he further reports that the Dodgers aren’t the only team in “serious” trade talks with the Rays regarding Glasnow.

11:50am: While Rays outfielder Randy Arozarena has created some speculation by posting a picture of himself and Shohei Ohtani from the 2023 World Baseball Classic on Instagram, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports that Arozarena is not a part of the talks regarding Glasnow and Margot.

8:27am: The Dodgers and Rays are in talks on a trade that would send right-hander Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot from Tampa Bay to Los Angeles in exchange for Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny Deluca, as first reported by Jack Azoulay-Haron of MLB Nerds and Bruce Kuntz of Dodgers Digest. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic hears the same, cautioning that the deal is not complete and changes to the framework remain possible.

The 30-year-old Glasnow has been one of the most highly rumored trade candidates of the offseason, due both to his considerable $25MM salary for the upcoming season and his proximity to free agency. He’s entering the final year of his contract and will hit the open market next winter. MLBTR ranked Glasnow fifth on our early offseason list of the game’s Top 25 trade candidates.

Glasnow is a natural target for the deep-pocketed Dodgers, who have a pronounced need for starting pitching and who won’t bat an eye at the Tampa Bay ace’s salary. As it stands, the rotation in Los Angeles consists of Pepiot, Walker Buehler, Bobby Miller and Emmet Sheehan, with the fifth spot up in the air. (Ryan Yarbrough, Michael Grove and Gavin Stone are among the in-house options.) Buehler will be on an innings count in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery (the second TJS of his career). None of Pepiot, Miller or Sheehan have made more than 22 big league starts.

The Dodgers’ rotation has been ravaged by injuries in the past calendar year. Longtime ace and current free agent Clayton Kershaw may still re-sign with the club, but he had shoulder surgery after the 2023 season and is out until at least midsummer — if not longer. Tony Gonsolin had Tommy John surgery in August. Dustin May underwent a Tommy John revision and flexor surgery just after the All-Star break.

While Glasnow is far from a paragon of durability, he’s unquestionably a top-of-the-rotation arm when healthy. Last year’s 120 innings were actually a career-high for the 6’8″ righty, and the 2023 season was only his second in which he reached even 100 frames at the MLB level. Glasnow did make a full slate of starts during the shortened 2020 season, but last year’s 21 trips to the mound were still a career-high. He’s spent considerable time in his big league career on the injured list owing to Tommy John surgery, a separate forearm strain and a severe oblique strain, among other maladies.

Originally a fifth-round pick by the Pirates, Glasnow was a longtime top prospect in Pittsburgh but never quite put things together for the Bucs, struggling in an up-and-down tenure before ultimately being traded to the Rays alongside Austin Meadows and Shane Baz in the lopsided trade that sent Chris Archer from Tampa Bay to Pittsburgh. Like so many other pitchers, Glasnow broke out under the Rays’ pitching development and analytics program. In parts of six seasons with Tampa Bay, he’s pitched to a 3.20 ERA while punching out a whopping 34.1% of his opponents against a tidy 7.8% walk rate. He’s typically worked with above-average ground ball rates and turned in a career-best 51.2% grounder mark this past season.

Margot, too, can become a free agent following the 2024 season — though the Rays (or an acquiring team) also hold a $12MM club option with a $2MM buyout for the 2025 season. He’s set to earn $10MM in 2024, bringing the total guarantee remaining on his deal to $12MM.

The .264/.310/.376 batting line that the 29-year-old Margot posted in 336 plate appearances in 2023 was about seven percent below average, by measure of wRC+ (93), but it was also right in line with the larger .264/.317/.375 output he’s turned in during parts of four seasons with the Rays. Generally speaking, slightly below-average offense from Margot has been an acceptable trade-off for his sensational defense and solid value on the basepaths.

That wasn’t necessarily the case in 2023, however. Margot missed the majority of the 2022 season with a significant strain of the patellar tendon in his right knee, and his defensive grades in 2023 slipped closer to average. Statcast indicates that Margot’s range in the outfield and overall sprint speed both declined in ’23, which isn’t particularly surprising to hear for a player who was in his first  season back from a major knee injury. If he’s closer to his pre-injury form, he could return to his status as a plus all-around contributor, but there’s no certainty of that happening.

A healthy Margot would be an excellent fit for the Dodgers’ roster. Los Angeles re-signed Jason Heyward to handle the bulk of the time in right field — Mookie Betts has already been announced as their primary second baseman next year — but Heyward will be strictly platooned. Margot’s right-handed bat has produced a career .281/.341/.420 output against left-handed pitching. He’s a strong fit at the plate, and if his defense can rebound to prior levels, the Dodgers probably feel they wouldn’t be losing much defensive value in swapping out Heyward for Margot against left-handed pitching. Margot could also be a late-game defensive replacement for Chris Taylor in left, and he’s good insurance in center field, should James Outman sustain an injury at any point.

As for the players reportedly being targeted by Tampa Bay, Pepiot is exactly what the Rays typically covet: an MLB-ready player with five seasons of club control who can step directly onto the roster in place of a star-caliber player being traded elsewhere. The 26-year-old righty has started 10 games and made seven relief appearances for the Dodgers since his MLB debut in 2022, pitching to a sharp 2.76 ERA in 78 1/3 innings — albeit with some more concerning underlying numbers.

Pepiot’s 25.1% strikeout rate is better than average, but his 10% walk rate is also higher than the league average and he’s been quite homer-prone (1.49 HR/9). He’s been fortunate that the majority of those long balls have come with the bases empty, but an extreme fly-ball pitcher who’s susceptible to homers inherently carries some risk. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (4.76) and SIERA (4.15) are more bearish than Pepiot’s more rudimentary earned run average.

Pepiot works off a three-pitch mix — fastball, changeup, slider — sitting 94 mph with his heater and neutralizing lefties with a plus changeup. His slider has generated good results thus far in the big leagues, but scouting reports from his prospect days have characterized that offering as a bit below average, giving him the feel of a two-pitch righty who’s lacking a third solid offering. Pepiot doesn’t come with the same type of durability concerns as Glasnow, having pitched 128 1/3 innings in 2022 and never hitting the IL with a major arm injury. However, like Glasnow, he missed multiple months after opening the 2023 season on the shelf with a significant oblique strain.

Baseball America ranked Pepiot as high as the No. 55 prospect in the game earlier in 2023, noting that he’s improved upon that once below-average slider but done so at the expense of some of his changeup’s efficacy. Pepiot’s sub-par command also lends itself to deep counts and long innings, with BA’s scouting report noting that he often struggles to pitch beyond the fifth inning. That’s not a huge issue for either the Rays or the Dodgers; both clubs typically have deep bullpens and don’t shy away from five-and-dive starters who face a lineup only two times.

Pepiot is controllable for another five years and won’t even be arbitration-eligible until the 2025-26 offseason, which surely adds to his appeal for the Rays. Swapping him out for Glasnow is probably a step down in terms of per-inning quality, but Pepiot would give them an option in 2025 and beyond, when the Rays will have Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen and Shane McClanahan all returning from major arm surgeries.

At the same time, swapping out Glasnow for a league-minimum starter (and perhaps shedding some or all of Margot’s remaining money) would give the Rays the necessary financial room to add free-agent starter (or trade acquisition with a mid-range salary) for the upcoming 2024 season. As it stands, the Rays have Glasnow, Zach Eflin, Aaron Civale, former top prospect Taj Bradley (who struggled through his 2023 rookie showing) and reliever-turned-starter Zack Littell in the projected rotation.

Not to be forgotten in all of this, the 25-year-old Deluca is coming off a solid debut effort of his own. He’s controllable for another six seasons and would give the Rays a right-handed bat who can play all three outfield spots — similar to the more established Margot. Deluca tallied just 45 plate appearances in last season’s MLB debut but posted a respectable .262/.311/.429 batting line in that time. He also turned in a combined .294/.390/.566 slash between Double-A and Triple-A.

It’s gaudy production, though scouting reports at Baseball America and FanGraphs note that the former switch-hitter is still working to adjust to right-on-right scenarios and currently feels like more of a platoon option. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen grades Deluca as a below-average center fielder but solid corner option. Deluca is a former baseball and track star with excellent athleticism who could at least profile as a matchup-based option across all three outfield spots, which is a skill set the Rays have utilized with great regularity in the past. He also has two minor league option years remaining, which only further enhances his appeal.

While it seems there are still some hurdles yet to be cleared, there’s some logic to the trade for both sides. The Dodgers would be swapping out a pair of controllable but unproven players for a high-end rotation upgrade and one or two years of an established right-handed platoon partner for Heyward — one who’s likely more capable of handling center field than the young outfielder with whom they’d be parting. Glasnow is an easy qualifying offer candidate next winter, so L.A. could receive some modest compensation if he departs. He’s also an L.A.-area native who’s signed one extension in the past, so the chance of a second multi-year deal to extend their control seems feasible.

The Rays, meanwhile, would turn two short-term assets into immediate MLB help that can be controlled all the way through 2028-29, freeing up money for short-term 2024 help and possibly adding Pepiot to a 2025 rotation group including McClanahan, Baz, Eflin, Civale and Bradley. It’s the type of swap that both teams have been frequently willing to make — typically with good success, which helps both achieve their status as perennial contenders (albeit via dramatically different methodologies).

Royals Sign Seth Lugo To Three-Year Deal

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The Royals announced the signing of right-hander Seth Lugo to a three-year deal that allows him to opt out after the 2025 season. It’s reportedly a $45MM guarantee for the Ballengee Group client. He’ll receive equal salaries of $15MM in each season, meaning he’ll collect $30MM before making the opt-out decision.

Lugo, 34, came up as a starter with the Mets but wound up spending most of his time as a reliever for that club. He reached free agency for the first time a year ago and was able to secure a gig with the Padres that allowed him to try his hand at starting again. It was a two-year, $15MM pact that allowed him opt out after the first year if his return to a rotation went well.

The move could hardly have gone much better. Lugo’s arm held up under the new workload conditions, as he made just one trip to the injured list all year, missing about a month due to a left calf strain. He took the ball 26 times and logged 146 1/3 innings with an earned run average of 3.57. He struck out 23.2% of batters he faced, walked just 6% and kept 45.2% of balls in play on the ground. That made his opt-out decision an easy one, as he left $7.5MM on the table and returned to the open market, with MLBTR predicting he could secure a three-year, $42MM deal this offseason.

Starting pitching has reportedly been in high demand this winter but Lugo’s market was never going to go too crazy due to his age. But given that he would be limited to a relatively modest deal, he was a plausible fit with far more clubs than the top names. Last month, it was reported by Robert Murray of FanSided that “more than half the league” was interested. The Tigers, Dodgers and Red Sox were some of the specific clubs named with interest in his services, but so were the Royals.

Starting pitching has been an ongoing issue in Kansas City for a few years now, with their plans for a homegrown pitching staff largely falling short of expectations. In 2018, the club had five picks in the first 58 selections of the draft and used all of those on pitchers: Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch IV, Kris Bubic and Jonathan Bowlan. None of those picks looks amazing at the moment.

Singer looked to break out in 2022 when he posted an ERA of 3.23 but that jumped to 5.52 this year. Kowar has been rocked for an ERA of 9.12 in his first 74 innings and was traded away this offseason. Lynch has a 5.18 ERA through his first 252 MLB innings. Bubic hasn’t been great for most of his career. He showed some encouraging signs of development at the start of 2023 before requiring Tommy John surgery after just three starts. Bowlan has just three major league innings but his minor league ERA has been just under 6.00 in the past two seasons.

The struggles of those drafted players, as well as from free agent signee Jordan Lyles, led to the club’s starters posting a collective ERA of 5.12 in 2023. Only the Reds, Athletics and Rockies were worse. General manager J.J. Picollo clearly stated that adding starting pitching was a goal this offseason and that the club should have about $30MM to spend on upgrading the 2024 club. This deal will accomplish the goal of adding to the rotation while using half of the available funds. For Lugo, he obviously made some wise decisions, both in returning to the rotation and returning to the open market this winter.

One bright spot in the club’s rotation last year was the breakout of Cole Ragans. After being acquired from the Rangers in the deadline deal that sent Aroldis Chapman the other way, Ragans posted a 2.64 ERA in 12 starts for his new club. He and Lugo should be atop the club’s rotation next year. Singer should be in there as well, looking to bounce back into something closer to his 2022 form. Lyles is in a comparable position, having registered a 4.42 ERA in 2022 but a 6.28 in the most recent season. He’s still owed $8.5MM and hasn’t been on the injured list since 2019 so he will probably get another opportunity to eat some innings. Pitchers like Lynch, Alec Marsh, Ángel Zerpa and others could be options for the back end but the club could also look for more external additions as the offseason continues.

As mentioned, Picollo used $30MM as a ballpark figure for available funds. The club also agreed to a deal with reliever Chris Stratton today, which comes with a $4MM guarantee, and a $5MM deal with Will Smith on the weekend. When combined with Lugo’s $15MM salary next year, that’s $24MM agreed to in the past few days.

Anne Rogers and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first reported that the two sides were nearing agreement on a deal. Jon Morosi of MLB.com first reported the three-year term and Jon Heyman of The New York Post had the $45MM guarantee. Feinsand first reported on the opt-out while Robert Murray of FanSided relayed the even distribution of the money.

Check Out Our MLB Contract Tracker!

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As the MLBTR team has been doing contract research this winter, we’ve been loving our MLB Contract Tracker tool.  Below is a video showing off some of its capabilities.

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The MLB Contract Tracker is only available to Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.  Many MLBTR readers have signed up recently, so this post will serve as a brief explainer/tutorial on some of the Contract Tracker’s features.

What is the MLB Contract Tracker?

The MLB Contract Tracker is a database containing Major League free agent contracts, minor league free agent contracts, and multiyear extensions dating back to October 1, 2006.  The Contract Tracker is updated daily with new contracts, and we’re also planning to add data prior to 10-1-06.  Player names are linked to the MLBTR post, so it’s easy to follow up and read about the deal.

That’s a ton of data.  How can I slice it up?

You can filter by player name, team, position, batting handedness, throwing handedness, contract type (MLB deal, minor league deal, extension), number of years, amount of total money, average annual value, type of option, age in the first year of the deal, age in the last year of the deal, service time for those who signed extensions, Super Two status, qualifying offer status, agency at the time of signing, GM at the time of the signing, and any date range from 10-1-06 to present.

What makes this tool unique?

Many aspects of the MLB Contract Tracker are unique.  I have found the “age in first year” and “age in last year” filters to be valuable in learning, for example, how often a pitcher who will be 34 in Year 1 of a free agent contract has signed for at least four years.  Or how many players have been signed through the age of 40 on a deal of four or more years.

Other tools lack most of the above-listed data and accompanying filters.  Our tool allows for endless combinations of filtering.  You may want to know how many multiyear deals for relievers a certain team has done in the last ten years, which agencies have represented players who accepted qualifying offers, or the largest extensions for outfielders with less than four years of service.  The only limit is your imagination!

How about some screen shots demonstrating how to use the MLB Contract Tracker?

I thought you’d never ask!  These might not show up if you’re in our app, so you’ll want to go to the actual website.

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Ohtani Contract Contains Conditional Opt-Out Clause Based On Ownership, Front Office

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Shohei Ohtani’s landmark contract with the Dodgers has prompted endless discussion, debate and criticism due to the unprecedented scope of the deferrals it contains, but that’s far from the only fascinating wrinkle of the 10-year deal.

Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci reports that the contract contains language “that assures the club will make good on its promise to use the savings he created to build a competitive team around him.” Ohtani’s agent, Nez Balelo of CAA Sports, tells Verducci that Ohtani asked him early in the free-agent process about whether it was possible to defer the majority or entirety of his salary in order to give his club more present-day payroll flexibility.

As far as we at MLBTR can tell, that’s the first clause of its nature in any player contract. Further specifics of the clause and the manner in which it will be enforced remain unclear. The Dodgers’ reported pursuits of a trade involving Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot, plus their recent meeting with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, seem to signal that the team is indeed taking steps to satisfy that condition, though.

The luxury-tax hit associated with Ohtani’s contract is $46.06MM, according to Verducci, which sits roughly in line with expectations at the outset of his free agency. But, the manner in which the contract was announced has created substantial criticism. It’s fair to wonder if, had the contract been announced as 10 years and $460MM deferred with interest, it would have invited the same backlash as the initial announcement of a $700MM deal … which was later reported to be 97% deferred.

The initial $700MM figure looks good in a recruiting pitch for future CAA clients, but the league’s approximate $460MM valuation of the net present value is a different story entirely. The MLBPA’s valuations are a bit lower yet; Jon Heyman of the New York Post tweets that the union values the contract at $437,830,563, but the luxury-tax hit will be based upon the league’s calculations.

There’s been plenty of talk about the contract as a means of gaming the luxury tax system, although the $46.06MM CBT hit is in line with the league’s valuation of the deal. If anything, the contract is less about circumventing the luxury tax and more about artificially tamping down the team’s actual, bottom-line payrolls from 2024-33.

Unprecedented contractual language doesn’t stop with the competitive team clause. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the contract states the following: “If specific change in Dodger personnel, player may opt out of contract at end of season the change occurs.”

The conditional opt-out is applicable to controlling owner Mark Walter and president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, per a report from Beth Harris and Ronald Blum of the Associated Press. If either Walter or Friedman leave the organization, Ohtani would gain the opt-out possibility. Alden González of ESPN tweets that would go into effect at the end of any season in which Walter or Friedman departed, so there’s no possibility of Ohtani opting out midseason.

It’s nevertheless a noteworthy inclusion, particularly in the case of Friedman. While the front office leader isn’t in any immediate jeopardy based on the team’s excellence over the course of his decade-long run, tying his contractual status to that of the team’s best player for the next 10 years is a bold move by ownership. Friedman signed an extension of undisclosed length in November 2019. It isn’t clear if he has signed any subsequent deals, though it’s hard to envision him departing the organization any time soon.

Given the massive slate of deferred money — Ohtani will be paid just $2MM annually from 2024-33, with the remaining $680MM paid out from 2034-43 — it’s difficult to see Ohtani opting out at any juncture, unless there’s language that allows a portion of those deferrals to be paid out in conjunction with the opt-out.

It’s technically feasible that if Ohtani is able to return to the mound in 2025, he could reestablish himself as a viable top-of-the-rotation starter and have even greater earning power than the ~$460MM net present value of his current contract. However, if he’s only been paid out around 1-2% of the overall guarantee at the time of a theoretical opt-out opportunity, it’d still be difficult to walk away from the deal.

Then again, Ohtani showed with his original move to MLB (and to a lesser extent with the eye-popping nature of his current deferrals) that money is not necessarily his top priority in any contract. He’s also reportedly earning as much as $50MM annually in terms of endorsements and other marketing opportunities, so the notion that he’d leave a staggering portion of his record contract on the table in order to pursue a return to free agency isn’t as far-fetched as it would be for many other players.

News of the (as we know it) unprecedented out clause in Ohtani’s contract will invite ample speculation. Fans on social media have already wondered about ownership changes, front office changes, managerial changes or perhaps even trades of star teammates like Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. With the contract itself not plainly spelling out the nature of the change, there’s no way of knowing the specific nature of personnel change that would trigger this right for Ohtani, however. The clause is further proof of the lengths to which the Dodgers — and presumably other teams — were willing to go in order to secure the two-way star’s generational talents.

Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has already indicated that the terms of Ohtani’s contract with the Dodgers were proposed by Ohtani and his agents, and that the Giants were comfortable effectively matching them. Presumably if Ohtani’s camp included the stipulations about investing the present-day savings and the conditional out clause in the terms with the Dodgers, those factors were also present in discussions with the Giants, Blue Jays and other finalists for his services.

One other note from the AP: while the Dodgers have already announced the contract, it has not yet gone to MLB for official approval. As of Wednesday evening, the deal still takes the form of a letter of agreement between Ohtani and the Dodgers.

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