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Nationals, #2 Overall Pick Dylan Crews Agree To Terms

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The Nationals have agreed to terms with second overall pick Dylan Crews, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). The Talk Nats blog suggested earlier this week the framework of a deal was in place, pending a physical (on Twitter). The specific signing bonus is unclear, though Heyman indicates it’ll come in around $9MM.

That’s right in line with the selection’s $8.99MM slot value. It’s very likely that’ll go down as the second-highest bonus in this year’s class. Paul Skenes landed a record $9.2MM upon going first overall to the Pirates. The Skenes/Crews duo became the first pair of college teammates to ever go 1-2 in the MLB draft.

Crews, a right-handed hitting outfielder, has been regarded as a top amateur talent going back to high school. He went to LSU after teams declined to meet his bonus demands in the 2020 draft. Crews had a monster career for the Tigers, posting an OPS north of 1.100 in all three seasons while playing in college baseball’s top conference.

Regarded as a potential first overall pick throughout the 2023 season, Crews more than met expectations. He raked a .426/.567/.713 clip over 344 plate appearances as a junior. He connected on 18 home runs, walked at an elite 20.6% clip and kept his strikeouts to a 13.4% rate. Crews won the Golden Spikes Award as college baseball’s top performer and helped LSU to a national championship.

Going into the draft, he was still very much in the running for the first pick. Each of Baseball America, Keith Law of the Athletic, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN, and MLB Pipeline rated Crews the #1 or #2 player in the class. He topped the pre-draft rankings at BA and The Athletic. Pittsburgh ultimately elected for the potential top-of-the-rotation starter in Skenes. Washington nabbed Crews at #2.

The 6’1″ outfielder is credited with a potential plus hit/power combination. He’s likely to begin his career in center field. Evaluators suggest he might eventually be bumped to right field but should be an above-average to plus corner outfielder if that happens. It’s difficult to find fault with much in his profile. Crews would likely have gone first overall in most draft classes, but Skenes is widely regarded as the best college pitching prospect in more than a decade.

Baseball America slots Crews as the sport’s #3 overall prospect behind Jackson Holliday and Jackson Chourio. He’s one slot ahead of fellow Washington outfielder James Wood (and two places above Skenes). The Nats will hope for Crews and Wood to anchor their outfields of the future once they pull out of their ongoing rebuild.

Diamondbacks Have Shown Interest In Lucas Giolito

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The Diamondbacks are among the teams to have shown interest in White Sox starter Lucas Giolito, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. It’s a sensible match, given that Giolito is one of the top trade candidates this summer and the D’Backs have a need in their rotation.

The White Sox are 41-57, which places them nine games back of the division lead even in the weak American League Central. The playoff odds at FanGraphs have them down to a 1.5% chance of leapfrogging the Tigers, Guardians and Twins in order to take the crown. With just over a week to go until the August 1 deadline, it seems fair to expect them to make a few deals aimed at improving their chances in future seasons. Recent reporting has indicated the club is willing to consider deals on all players except for Luis Robert Jr., Eloy Jiménez, Dylan Cease and Andrew Vaughn.

Giolito would be one of their most logical trade chips, given that he is an impending free agent and a potential playoff starter for an acquiring club. MLBTR recently placed him in the #1 slot on a list of top deadline trade candidates, a reflection of both his likelihood to be traded and his appeal to other clubs.

The righty made 72 starts over the 2019 to 2021 seasons, posting a 3.47 earned run average in that time. That figure spiked to 4.90 last year but Giolito has brought it back down 3.96 here in 2023. Across those five seasons, he’s struck out 28.5% of hitters while walking 8.2%. He’s making $10.4MM this year but only about $3.35MM will be left to be paid out at the time of the deadline.

Just about any club in need of starting pitching should have at least some interest in Giolito and he’s already been connected to the Dodgers, while the Reds have reportedly had discussions with the White Sox about their starters, which presumably includes Giolito.

There’s plenty of logic in the Diamondbacks throwing their hat in the ring, given the state of their own rotation. The club has featured a top-heavy rotation this year, with Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly doing strong work at the front. Kelly is on the injured list right now due to a calf issue and could return next week, but even if that proves to be the case, that still leaves the D’Backs with plenty of questions behind the Gallen-Kelly duo.

Tommy Henry has a 3.89 ERA but it’s possible he’s lucky to have it, as his .276 batting average on balls in play and 81.1% strand rate are both on the lucky side of average. His 5.07 FIP and 5.23 SIERA suggest some regression may be in store. Ryne Nelson has made 20 starts but with a 4.82 ERA in that time. Zach Davies has a 7.38 ERA for the year and is on the injured list for a second time. Prospect Brandon Pfaadt has been given six starts but has a 9.82 ERA in those.

Despite those rotation issues, the Snakes are 54-43 and currently tied for the top Wild Card spot in the National League, in addition to sitting just two games back of the Dodgers for the division lead. Adding some pitching for the final months of the postseason race would be a logical move, something that general manager Mike Hazen admitted last month.

Although Giolito will be highly in demand, the acquisition cost in terms of the trade return might not be exorbitant since he’s a rental, at least compared to a similar pitcher with multiple years of control. Hazen also recently said that the club will likely be “aggressive” but not “reckless” at the deadline, in terms of which younger players they are willing to give up. Perhaps going after an impending free agent like Giolito would fit that plan.

Whether the Diamondbacks are willing to be aggressive enough to land a pitcher like Giolito remains to be seen. There have already been a few clubs publicly connected to him and there are surely plenty of others who have called the White Sox. For any club that comes up short, some of the other rental starters that could be available include Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Michael Lorenzen and many others.

Blue Jays Acquire Génesis Cabrera From Cardinals

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The Blue Jays have acquired left-hander Génesis Cabrera from the Cardinals, reports Katie Woo of The Athletic. The Cards had designated Cabrera for assignment earlier this week. In exchange, the Cards received minor league catcher Sammy Hernandez. The Jays will need to open a spot on their 40-man roster to accommodate Cabrera.

Cabrera, 26, once looked to be establishing himself as an impact relief lefty at the big league level. Across the 2020 and 2021 seasons, he made 90 appearances for the Cards with a 3.41 earned run average. He struck out 27.8% of batters faced and kept the ball on the ground at a 40.4% clip but also allowed walks at a 13.3% rate. Despite the obvious control issues, the punchouts were enough for him to move into a high-leverage role, recording 28 holds in 2021.

Things haven’t gone as smoothly for him since then, however. His strikeout rate dropped to 16.5% last year, helping his ERA climb to 4.63. This year, he’s got those strikeouts back, punching out 26.6% of hitters. But it hasn’t led to improved results, as he has a 5.06 ERA on the year. Home runs have become an increasing issue of late, as he allowed eight in the 2019-2021 period, but then eight more last year alone and another six this year.

The Cardinals are having a disappointing season and seem to be bound for some selling between now and the trade deadline. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak has been forthright about the club turning its attentions towards 2024, with various trades possible in the days to come. Cabrera got bounced off the roster ahead of time, likely due to his struggles but also because he apparently expressed some frustration with his role in St. Louis.

Despite his poors results of late, there are some logical reasons for the Jays to be interested in taking a shot. Cabrera is averaging 95.8mph on his fastball, a rare trait for southpaws. Statcast data has him in the top 10 in that category among left-handers with at least 500 pitches thrown this year. It’s also possible he has even more in the tank since he was at 97.6mph back in 2021. He also has an option remaining, which will give the Jays the ability to send him in Triple-A if they so desire.

He also relatively cheap, making $950K this season, which is barely above this year’s $720K minimum salary. He can also be retained for future seasons via arbitration, as he began this year with three years and 11 days of service time. That means he’s not slated for free agency until after 2025, and that could even get pushed back by a year if he spends some time on optional assignment. The Cards already optioned him at the start of the season, though he was quickly recalled on April 8 and stayed on the active roster until his recent DFA. If the Jays can help him get back into the form he showed a few years ago or help him rein in his command, he could be a multi-year asset for them.

The Jays have operated with Tim Mayza as their only left-handed reliever this year. He’s having a great season with a 1.10 ERA in 44 appearances, but Cabrera could give them a second option to call upon. They might make additional acquisitions before the trade deadline but Cabrera’s option means he can be a depth piece in the minors, even if he’s squeezed out of the picture at the big league level. The Jays are clear buyers, given that their 54-43 record has them tied with the Astros for the second Wild Card spot in the American League. The nearest non-playoff team, the Red Sox, are three games back of the Jays and Astros at the moment.

For the Cards, this is likely to be the first of many deals they make in the coming days, given their aforementioned seller position. Despite currently enjoying a six-game win streak, they are 8.5 games out of the playoff picture in the National League. They have various impending free agent pitchers that seem likely to be moved, such as Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Hicks and Chris Stratton, as well as a position-player logjam that could lead to a trade.

For now, they will add Hernandez, a 19-year-old catcher. He was selected by the Jays in the 14th round of last year’s draft and has been playing in the lower levels of their farm system. He’s hit .213/.287/.367 in 42 games across two different levels this year. He hasn’t generally been considered one of the club’s top 30 prospects.

Astros, Rays Showing Interest In Michael Lorenzen

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Michael Lorenzen is one of the top rental starting pitchers who could move between now and the August 1 trade deadline. The Rays and Astros are among the contending clubs that have shown interest in the Tigers’ righty, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link).

It stands to reason Tampa Bay and Houston are just two of a number of teams monitoring the market for the Detroit hurler. Lorenzen is having a strong season, working to a 3.49 ERA through 17 starts. He tossed seven scoreless innings to earn a win over the Royals this afternoon and hasn’t allowed a run in any of his past three appearances.

Lorenzen began the season on the injured list after straining his groin in Spring Training. Since returning in the middle of April, he’s been a quality starter for Detroit. He has allowed two or fewer runs in 11 of his 17 outings. While his 19.1% strikeout rate is a couple points below league average, he has kept his walks to a modest 6.5% clip. Lorenzen has negligible platoon splits and mixes four pitches with regularity.

While it’s not the most overpowering profile, the first-time All-Star looks a solid mid-rotation arm for contenders. Tampa Bay and Houston have both made clear they’re surveying the rotation market. The Rays have limited depth behind the front four of Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Zach Eflin and rookie Taj Bradley. They’ve lost Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs for the season and been without southpaw Josh Fleming for an extended stretch.

Tampa Bay has been tied to a number of rental starters. Lance Lynn, Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty and Marcus Stroman (the latter of whom has a $21MM player option for next season) are all reportedly on Tampa Bay’s radar.  The Rays seem to be casting a wide net as they look to solidify their final rotation spot in their battle for the AL East title.

It’s a similar story in Houston. Luis Garcia underwent Tommy John surgery, while Lance McCullers Jr. will miss the whole season after recurring forearm issues. José Urquidy has been out since the end of April with shoulder discomfort, though he’s on a rehab stint and expected back soon.

As with the Rays, the Astros have a quality top of the rotation. Framber Valdez headlines a group that also includes Cristian Javier and rookie Hunter Brown. Javier has scuffled of late, which the team has attributed to some fatigue, while Brown is already at 99 1/3 innings after tossing 130 frames last year between the regular season and playoffs. J.P. France and Ronel Blanco have held down the last two spots. Houston general manager Dana Brown has publicly discussed his desire for another arm. The Astros have also been tied to Stroman.

Lorenzen could fit on virtually any contender. He’s playing this season on an $8.5MM salary. Around $2.79MM will remain to be paid out from the deadline onward. Lorenzen tacked on an extra $250K in incentives by passing the 100-inning mark today and would earn a matching amount at 125, 150, 175, 195 and 205 frames.

If he stays healthy, he’s likely to at least get to the 150-175 inning range. Still, the tab for an acquiring team would only be around $3MM. That’s a reasonable figure for mid-rotation production for the stretch run and into the playoffs.

While that all makes Lorenzen a sensible trade target, it’s not a foregone conclusion Detroit sells. Despite being eight games under .500 with a -77 run differential, the Tigers are only five games back of the division-leading Twins in the AL Central.

It’s tough to see this Detroit club making a playoff push — only Oakland and Kansas City have scored fewer runs on the season — but the bleakness of the division leaves the door slightly ajar. President of baseball operations Scott Harris implied last week the team could play well enough to avoid a deadline sell-off, although they could strike a middle ground by dealing Lorenzen while holding onto players who are controllable beyond 2023.

Rays Have Some Interest In Marcus Stroman

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The Rays could use some starting pitching and apparently have some interest in Cubs right-hander Marcus Stroman. On the Onto Waveland podcast with Brett Taylor, Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney, they relay that the Rays aren’t currently in on Cody Bellinger but are “doing homework” on Stroman. (Discussion around the Rays starts around the 29-minute mark.)

It’s fairly logical that the Rays would be interested in Stroman, who has a long track record of big league success and is having an excellent season. He has a career 3.55 earned run average in 1285 2/3 innings dating back to his 2014 debut. This year, his ERA is down to 2.88 through 20 starts. His 21.3% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate are both close to league average, but Stroman’s always been a ground ball specialist and his 58.4% rate in that department is his highest since 2018.

Despite Stroman’s contributions, the Cubs aren’t having a great season overall. They are 45-50, putting them 7.5 games back of the Brewers in the National League Central with the Reds in between, and seven games back in the Wild Card race as well. Perhaps a hot streak in the next week or so could change the calculus, but it seems fair to expect the club to consider selling off some players who aren’t part of their long-term plans.

Stroman has one more year left on his contract, set to make $21MM next year, but has the ability to opt out and return to free agency after the current campaign. Given his strong results, it will be a fairly easy decision for him to trigger that opt-out and secure a larger guarantee on another multi-year deal. He has been quite candid about his desire to stick with the Cubs via a long-term extension, but the club reportedly doesn’t share his same enthusiasm to work out a new deal. All those factors seem to point to Stroman being traded in the coming days and he was placed in the #6 slot on MLBTR’s list of top deadline trade candidates.

The Rays could use another starter, given that they have dealt with multiple significant injuries to their rotation. Shane Baz had Tommy John surgery last year and was known to be a non-factor this year, but they have since lost Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs to season-ending surgeries with Josh Fleming seemingly set for a significant absence as well. They still have a solid front four in Shane McClanahan, Taj Bradley, Tyler Glasnow and Zach Eflin, but each of those pitchers except for Bradley has been on the IL this year, leading the club to deploy bullpen games at various points.

Getting another starter into the mix would strengthen the overall group for the postseason push, but acquiring a rental could be a logical move for the Rays. Each of their four current starters are still under contract or under club control for next year. Baz could rejoin the rotation going into 2024, with Springs and Rasmussen potentially coming back in the middle of the next campaign as well. Getting a short-term fix would require the club to send a lesser return the other way, compared to a pitcher with a longer window of control. The Rays have already been connected to impending free agents like Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty and Lance Lynn, the latter of whom has a club option for 2024.

Stroman would also fit the bill, given his ability to opt out of his deal this fall. His ground ball tendencies would also be a good fit for a Tampa club that generally has strong defense. The Rays collectively have 16 Defensive Runs Saved from the shortstop position, the best mark in the league. Their 10 Outs Above Average at that spot are second only to the Cubs. Their tallies at second and third base are a bit lower but still above average. Their first base marks are subpar, but it’s still a solid group overall.

It’s worth pointing out, however, that Stroman’s opt-out does complicate his trade candidacy slightly. As mentioned, he’s currently looking like a lock to exercise that opt-out in a few months, given his good numbers on the year. But there’s always the risk of that situation changing after a deal. If the Rays were to acquire Stroman and he then suffered some sort of injury that would carry into next year, perhaps he would decide against triggering that opt-out, instead just taking the $21MM that he already has in hand.

Some clubs might be fine with taking that risk, but the Rays are one of the lowest-spending clubs among contenders. A $21MM salary might be a drop in the bucket to some clubs — but not to Tampa Bay. Their highest-paid player this year is Eflin, who’s making $11MM. They also have a big spike coming up next year, with Glasnow’s salary set to jump from this year’s $5.35MM to next year’s $25MM, a big financial outlay they made in order to push his free agency back by one year.

Per Roster Resource, the Rays have already committed $74MM to next year’s club, just shy of this year’s $78MM payroll. That’s before even factoring in arbitration raises for players like Randy Arozarena, Harold Ramírez, Jason Adam and others. The Rays often find ways to save money in the offseason by trading players with significant salaries, but they are currently trending to have a larger payroll next year. Although Stroman is likely going to be opting out, the Rays would be taking on at least some risk of an extra $21MM being added to that equation.

Any team acquiring Stroman would be in a similar situation, but most would have a bit more financial wiggle room. He is still likely to generate plenty of interest regardless and has already been connected to the Astros and Blue Jays. The trade deadline is on August 1, less than two weeks away.

Subscribe To The Free MLBTR Newsletter

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The MLB trade deadline is less than two weeks away!  It’s the perfect time to sign up for the free MLBTR newsletter.  The newsletter is written by Cliff Corcoran, who has an extensive resume contributing to Sports Illustrated, The Athletic, Baseball Prospectus, and other outlets.  Cliff will take you through the hot stove highlights of the previous day, boiling down MLBTR’s posts into the essential stories.  It’s a great morning read that will help you stay on top of the biggest MLB stories.

 

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Orioles Acquire Shintaro Fujinami From A’s

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The Orioles added an upside play to their bullpen, acquiring Shintaro Fujinami from the A’s. Minor league reliever Easton Lucas is going back to Oakland in a one-for-one swap. Baltimore designated infielder Josh Lester for assignment to clear a 40-man roster spot.

Fujinami signed a one-year, $3.25MM free agent contract over the winter. The A’s took a flier on his upside despite an inconsistent decade-long run in Japan. The 6’6″ righty brought high-octane stuff but a spotty performance track record and wobbly control to the big leagues.

A cursory glance at Fujinami’s season line would suggest the experiment didn’t pay off. He concluded his A’s tenure with an 8.57 ERA through 49 1/3 innings. No other pitcher with 40+ frames has allowed more than eight earned runs per nine.

That ghastly season line is skewed by an incredibly poor first couple months. Initially penciled into the starting rotation, Fujinami was tagged for a 14.26 ERA across seven starts. The A’s understandably kicked him mostly to relief work by late April.

Fujinami’s 5.40 ERA over 31 2/3 relief innings isn’t eye-catching itself. That’s also skewed by some growing pains early on. The 29-year-old has worked scoreless outings in 15 of his last 20 appearances. Since May 27 — an admittedly arbitrary endpoint — Fujinami owns a 3.32 ERA in 21 2/3 frames. He’s striking hitters out at a quality 25.6% clip against a modest 7% walk rate in that time.

There’s risk in placing too much emphasis on a player’s recent trajectory compared to their overall body of work, of course. It’s perhaps easier to buy into Fujinami’s stronger results of late given the quality of his arsenal. Working in shorter stints has pushed the average velocity on his four-seam fastball from an already strong 97 MPH to the 99-100 MPH range. He’s also leaned more heavily on a 93-94 MPH split while scaling back on his mid-80s cutter.

Baltimore will hope the simplified pitch mix and continued experience against big league hitters allows Fujinami to maintain his form of the past six weeks. He’ll add a power arm to the middle innings of an already excellent relief corps. Baltimore’s bullpen entered play Wednesday ranked eighth in the majors with a 3.79 ERA. They’re fourth with a 26.1% strikeout percentage.

It’s a little more top-heavy than the typical bullpen, though. Félix Bautista and Yennier Cano have been fantastic at the back end, while veteran Danny Coulombe has excelled as the top southpaw. Bryan Baker and Mike Baumann have been generally effective, but both have issued a few too many walks. Fujinami is far from a control artist himself, but he provides skipper Brandon Hyde with another option to bridge the gap to Cano and Bautista.

The addition is solely about 2023. Fujinami will be a free agent again at season’s end. Even though he’ll only have one year of major league service, players signing out of Asian professional leagues are almost always granted the ability to return to the open market once their MLB contract plays out. Baltimore will take on the approximate $1.3MM in salary still owed to the righty through the end of the season.

Oakland offloads a small amount of cash and brings in an upper level relief option. Lucas is a 6’4″ southpaw who was selected by the Marlins in the 14th round of the 2019 draft. Miami traded him to Baltimore over the 2019-20 offseason for veteran infielder Jonathan Villar.

The 26-year-old is amidst a strong season in the upper minors. He’s split his time almost evenly between Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk. Over 29 2/3 combined frames, he owns a 2.73 ERA with an excellent 31.9% strikeout percentage and tolerable 9.5% walk rate. He’s holding left-handed hitters to a .200/.265/.378 batting line.

Lucas will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft if he’s not added to the 40-man roster at the end of the season. Considering his upper minors success and Oakland’s MLB-worst 5.72 bullpen ERA, he’ll probably get a big league look at some point in the coming weeks.

It’s the first of what is likely to be multiple moves for both clubs. The A’s have already stripped the roster most of the way down, but players like Paul Blackburn, Tony Kemp and Seth Brown could still find themselves on the move. Baltimore has pulled ahead of the Rays (on a percentage point basis) in the AL East and figures to look for rotation upgrades over the next two weeks.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported Fujinami was being dealt to the Orioles and that Lucas was the return. John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle and Martín Gallegos of MLB.com had previously observed that Fujinami was saying goodbye to his Oakland teammates.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Tommy John Surgery Recommended For Phillies’ Andrew Painter

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The Phillies announced this morning that their medical staff has recommended an ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction (i.e. Tommy John surgery) and ulnar nerve transposition procedure for top pitching prospect Andrew Painter. He’ll receive a second opinion from Dr. Neal ElAttrache next week before proceeding with the operation. Assuming he indeed undergoes the surgery, he’ll miss the remainder of the 2023 season and quite possibly the majority of the 2024 campaign.

“Right-handed pitcher Andrew Painter has been undergoing conservative management for a right elbow partial ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) injury since March 2, 2023,” the Phillies stated in a press release. “While he was able to return to throwing bullpens and follow-up imaging has shown interval healing in his elbow, over the last few weeks, he continues to be symptomatic upon examination. Considering the timing of the season and that Painter is still experiencing symptoms, the Phillies medical staff has recommended he undergo a right elbow UCL reconstruction with ulnar nerve transposition surgery. Painter has a surgical consult with Dr. Neal ElAttrache on Monday, July 24, 2023 in Los Angeles, Calif.”

Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski indicated last night that Painter was no longer being viewed as a rotation option for the current season, though at the time Dombrowski did not divulge this recommendation. Fans will surely be frustrated, given that Painter’s UCL injury was first diagnosed back in March, but surgery is always a last resort. As common as Tommy John procedures have become, a pitcher’s full recovery is hardly guaranteed. We frequently see pitchers take longer than 12 to 14 months to recover due to setbacks and/or return with diminished stuff. Noah Syndergaard stands out as one prominent recent example of both scenarios.

The Phillies consulted with outside medical experts back in March, and all involved parties agreed on a conservative approach with Painter, knowing full well this could be the eventual outcome. While certainly not unforeseeable, the setback is still a blow to the Phillies’ future.

Painter entered the season lauded as one of the sport’s top prospects at any position. The 2021 first-rounder breezed through three minor league levels last year as a 19-year-old, posting a combined 1.56 ERA through Low-A, High-A and Double-A. Along the way, he fanned a massive 38.7% of his opponents against a tidy 6.2% walk rate.

That huge showing not only catapulted Painter up national prospect rankings — it thrust him into competition to claim the No. 5 spot in the Philadelphia rotation this spring and make his MLB debut before even celebrating his 20th birthday. The spring elbow injury derailed that trajectory though, and Painter’s earliest path to the Majors is now likely in 2025. He’d require at least 12 to 14 months to recover from surgery, and the Phillies would surely be cautious with his rehab and any minor league innings next season as he builds back up late in the summer.

Given Painter’s injury and the struggles of left-hander Bailey Falter, rotation help could be a major focus for Dombrowski and his staff in advance of the Aug. 1 trade deadline. Falter opened the season in the rotation but has since been optioned to Triple-A. Fellow lefty Cristopher Sanchez has performed well in six starts since being given an opportunity, but the Phils have received less quality than hoped from top starters Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Taijuan Walker — all of whom have an ERA between 4.00 and 4.27. Ranger Suarez has fared a bit better (3.84 ERA) but also been limited to 12 starts due to injury.

The Phils have a solid quintet of starters right now, but the depth beyond that group is shakier. Adding a proven starter to stabilize things surely has some appeal — particularly if said starter is controlled beyond the current season. Nola is a free agent at season’s end and Painter isn’t likely to pitch until late next summer, so bringing in some help not just for this year but for next season as well could prove prudent.

Braves Extend Travis d’Arnaud

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The Braves announced they’ve signed catcher Travis d’Arnaud to a one-year, $8MM deal covering the 2024 season. The contract also contains an $8MM club option for the ’25 season with no buyout. d’Arnaud is represented by Wasserman.

Atlanta controlled d’Arnaud on an $8MM team option for 2024. They’ll preemptively trigger that provision. In exchange, the veteran backstop gives the team a matching option for the following year. It’s familiar territory for an Atlanta organization that has been very aggressive about signing players to extensions.

It is also a comfortable spot for d’Arnaud himself. He’s now signed a trio of contracts with the Braves over the past half-decade. He first agreed on a two-year, $16MM deal in free agency over the 2019-20 offseason. Midway through the ’21 season, he re-upped on a matching $16MM contract that contained the ’24 option. He’s now locked in for a fifth campaign at Truist Park.

Now 34, d’Arnaud has been an effective backstop throughout his time in the organization. He hit .266/.324/.462 over his first three seasons as a Brave. Catching wasn’t a need last winter, but the Atlanta front office seized on the opportunity to add a star catcher on the trade market. Atlanta acquired and promptly extended Sean Murphy, pushing d’Arnaud into a reserve role.

While he’s overqualified for a #2 catching position, the former All-Star has taken his new role in stride. d’Arnaud carries a .265/.338/.478 line with eight home runs through 151 trips to the plate on the season. He’s walking at a personal-high 9.3% clip and has maintained his previous contact and power production on a rate basis. d’Arnaud has gotten 27 starts behind the plate compared to Murphy’s 60 nods.

Despite the diminished role, he’s clearly happy in Atlanta. He’ll reprise his role as Murphy’s backup for at least one more season and potentially an additional year beyond that. d’Arnaud will soon surpass the 10-year MLB service threshold. The ’24 campaign will be his fifth in Atlanta. If the Braves keep him around for 2025, he’d have automatic no-trade rights that season as a 10-and-5 player (10 years of service, the past five of which have come for the same team) under the collective bargaining agreement.

That’s a possible longer-term consideration. For now, the move solidifies the catching position with a high-quality backup for a second year. Atlanta’s 2024 payroll commitments now sit around $138MM, as estimated by Roster Resource. Their projected luxury tax number is a bit under $159MM. The Braves opened this season with a franchise-record payroll estimated by Cot’s Baseball Contracts around $203MM.

With d’Arnaud officially off the board, the upcoming free agent catching class takes another hit. Unlike last year, where Willson Contreras was a clear candidate for a long-term deal, next winter’s group mostly consists of veteran depth types. Tom Murphy, Yasmani Grandal, Austin Hedges and Víctor Caratini are among the top names available. The Cubs hold a $6MM club option on Yan Gomes as well.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Pirates Sign No. 1 Overall Pick Paul Skenes

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The Pirates announced Tuesday that they’ve officially signed right-hander Paul Skenes, whom they selected with the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft. The now-former Louisiana State University ace will receive a $9.2MM signing bonus, Jim Callis of MLB.com reports. It’s the largest draft bonus ever issued under the current slotting system in Major League Baseball. Full slot value for the top overall selection was $9,721,000.

Skenes, 21, spent this year dominating for LSU. He made 19 starts for the Tigers with a 1.69 ERA in 122 2/3 innings. He struck out 209 of the 462 batters he faced, an incredible 45.2% rate, while walking just 20 for a 4.3% rate in that department.

Coming into the draft, he was a consensus top three pick by all of the major outlets alongside his LSU teammate Dylan Crews. ESPN, FanGraphs and Keith Law of The Athletic gave Skenes the #3 slot, Baseball America had him at #2, while MLB.com had him in the very top spot. MLB Pipeline puts an 80-grade on his fastball, the top mark possible on the 20-80 scale, noting that he averaged 98 mph this year while getting as high as 102. They also heap praise on his slider and compliment his changeup as well. He is described as a “classic” starter in that he is 6’6″ and 235 pounds, with the profile at MLB.com describing him as the best pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg in 2009.

Even the profiles that didn’t have Skenes in the #1 slot admitted that there was a case to have done so, though the greater injury risk for pitchers played a factor in bumping him to #2 or #3. All observers consider him to be a potential future ace some think he is talented enough to pitch in the big leagues today. That’s not to say the Pirates will consider such a path, since pitchers are often shut down in their draft year and Skenes already logged a significant workload this year.

How the Bucs will proceed with Skenes will be a fascinating development to watch this winter and into next year, given that some evaluators think he’s ready for the big leagues. The Pirates showed some signs of life earlier this year and had some hope of emerging from their rebuilding phase, but they’ve faded in the past couple of months and seem likely to be out of contention this year. But if they think they are ready to make a leap in 2024, they will have to come up with a plan for where Skenes fits in there.

The club has been aggressively promoting its prospects this year, with Henry Davis, Endy Rodríguez, Jared Triolo, Nick Gonzales and Liover Peguero all called up in recent weeks, but there’s plenty of room in the rotation. Mitch Keller will undoubtedly be in the mix as he’s in his second straight solid season. Johan Oviedo is posting passable results behind him. 43-year-old Rich Hill could be traded this summer but is an impending free agent even if he doesn’t get moved. Other options like Osvaldo Bido, Luis Ortiz and Roansy Contreras have shown some encouraging signs at times but are still question marks right now, as in Quinn Priester, who was just promoted to make his debut in recent days. Mike Burrows was considered one of the club’s better pitching prospects coming into the year but required Tommy John surgery in April.

Baseball America has already updated its top 100 prospects lists after the draft and has Skenes #5 across the entire league. Skenes was the first #1 pick in MLB’s new lottery era, which was just implemented for this draft. The Pirates got the #1 selection despite the Nationals and A’s having slightly worse records in 2022.

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