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Carlos Rodon, Tommy Kahnle, Lou Trivino To Begin Season On IL

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Yankees GM Brian Cashman told reporters this morning, including ESPN’s Marly Rivera, that pitchers Carlos Rodon, Tommy Kahnle, and Lou Trivino will all begin the season on the injured list. Rodon is suffering from a mild forearm strain and will be shut down for 7 to 10 days, though Cashman notes that Rodon has already undergone an MRI and has no UCL damage. Kahnle was previously reported to be suffering from biceps tendinitis, while Trivino is suffering from a mild elbow sprain and will be out until May. This news is a significant blow to the Yankees pitching staff, which has already lost right-hander Frankie Montas to shoulder surgery.

Rodon figured to pitch at the top of the Yankees rotation alongside Gerrit Cole after signing a six-year, $162MM contract with the club this offseason. That contract stood as a clear gamble on Rodon staying healthy going forward, given his lengthy injury history. 2022 was just the second year of Rodon’s career where he had managed to pitch more than 140 innings, and it was the first such season since 2016. While Rodon’s newest injury (which Cashman describes as “not serious”) is currently only expected to force him to sit down for a week or so, it certainly brings to mind his career-long injury struggles. That said, Rodon has been among the best starters in baseball when healthy, as shown by his sterling 2.67 ERA (157 ERA+), 2.42 FIP, 33.9% strikeout rate, and 0.998 WHIP over the past two seasons.

Kahnle, who returned to the club this offseason on a two-year, $11.5MM contract, has managed just 13 2/3 innings since the end of the 2019 season, battling injuries ever since. That said, he has stood among the better relievers in the game when healthy, sporting a 3.44 ERA (127 ERA+) and 3.16 FIP in 188 1/3 innings of work since the beginning of the 2016 season. Kahnle’s absence seems likely to be a shorter one than that of Trivino, who the Yankees acquired at the trade deadline last year from the A’s alongside Montas. Trivino pitched exceptionally down the stretch following his trade to the Bronx, sporting a 1.66 ERA (238 ERA+) and 3.34 FIP over the course of his 21 2/3 innings of work in New York. Both Trivino and Kahnle figured to feature prominently in the back of the Yankees bullpen this season, particularly as sidearming reliever Scott Effross is set to miss the 2023 season while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.

Though this trio of injuries certainly weakens the pitching depth available to the Yankees as they open the year, they still have competent options capable of stepping up and filling for the injured hurlers while they are on the shelf. Domingo German and Clarke Schmidt were already figuring to battle for the fifth starter spot following Montas’s injury, and Rodon’s injury leaves the door open for both players to make the Opening Day rotation. That being said, the Yankees have little in the way of starting depth remaining should the rotation sustain another injury. Cashman mentions Deivi Garcia as one potential option, as noted by Erik Boland of Newsday Sports, but it would certainly make sense for the club to consider bringing in an external depth option such as Dylan Bundy or Chris Archer on a minor league deal, as well.

The bullpen picture is significantly rosier, however, as the Yankees still can rely on the likes of Clay Holmes, Michael King, and Wandy Peralta in the late innings of games. These injuries could also provide right-hander Jonathan Loaisiga an opportunity to work his way back into the late-inning mix for the Yankees after a difficult 2022 season where he posted a 4.15 ERA (95 ERA+) in 48 innings while sporting a reduced strikeout rate of just 18.2% and an inflated walk rate of 9.4%. Should the Yankees wish to acquire additional bullpen depth, there’s a few options still available on the free agent market, including right-hander Corey Knebel and former Yankee Zack Britton.

That being said, any external additions would likely require a change of heart regarding the upper limit of the club’s payroll or a trade to create payroll space. The Yankees have, to this point, seemed unwilling to surpass the fourth tier of the luxury tax, which stands at $293MM. That’s a line the club is pressed right up against, with RosterResource estimating their current 2023 payroll at roughly $292.5MM for luxury tax purposes. While third baseman Josh Donaldson and outfielder Aaron Hicks were seen as the most likely candidates for a salary-clearing trade this offseason, most clubs would likely balk at adding such significant salary to the books just three weeks before Opening Day, making someone like Isiah Kiner-Falefa a more likely option for the Yankees to deal should they try and swing a salary-clearing trade.

Mitch Moreland Announces Retirement

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Twelve-year big league veteran Mitch Moreland didn’t play during the 2022 season, and the 37-year-old confirmed to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com that his days as a player are now behind him. “I’m retired,” Moreland said, noting that he’s enjoyed being able to spend the past year-plus with his family. Bradford adds that Moreland is currently in Red Sox camp to work with some younger players after getting an invite from chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and manager Alex Cora.

Selected by the Rangers in the  17th round of the 2007 draft, Moreland was in the big leagues just over three years later, making a strong impression with a .255/.364/.469 slash and nine homers in 173 plate appearances as a rookie. That strong showing set the stage for a torrid postseason effort in which a then 24-year-old Moreland batted .348/.400/.500 with a homer and four doubles, helping Texas advance to the World Series, where they fell to the Giants in a 4-1 series loss.

From that point forth, Moreland was entrenched as a big leaguer. He logged regular time in each of the next 11 seasons, serving as a slick-fielding, righty-mashing slugger in the middle of the order for the Rangers, Red Sox and — more briefly — Padres and Athletics. Along the way, Moreland won a Gold Glove for his work at first base with the Rangers and secured an All-Star nod with the Red Sox, who signed him as a free agent prior to the 2017 season and twice re-signed him in free agency — first for two years (2018-19) and then for another one-year deal (2020).

The 2018 season was a big one for Moreland not only due to his All-Star selection but also from a big-picture standpoint; while Moreland’s Rangers fell shy in consecutive World Series appearances in 2010-11, he reached the Fall Classic for a third time with the ’18 Red Sox and this time captured the championship that had twice eluded him in the past. As with the 2010 Rangers, Moreland played a big role in the Red Sox’ postseason success that year, slashing .294/.368/.529 in 19 plate appearances. That included a pinch-hit, three-run bomb at Dodger Stadium in the seventh inning of Game 4 of the World Series — a blast that jumpstarted a late-inning rally which saw Boston score nine runs en route to a comeback victory (video).

The Red Sox wound up trading Moreland to the Padres for a pair of prospects (Hudson Potts, Jeisson Rosario) during the shortened 2020 season. He scuffled through a small sample of 73 plate appearances before again heating up in the postseason, where he went 4-for-8 with a double. Moreland inked a one-year deal with Oakland that offseason but was limited to 82 games by ribcage and wrist injuries.

That proved to be the final season of Moreland’s playing career, and while it may not have ended with a flourish, it’s easy to look back and see a successful career —  particularly for a 17th-round pick. Moreland retires as a lifetime .251/.318/.446 hitter in the regular season. He slugged 186 home runs, 219 doubles and nine triples along the way, while piling up 1,020 hits, 527 runs scored and 618 runs batted in. As previously mentioned, he won a Gold Glove and was named to the American League All-Star team. Between his solid arbitration numbers and a quartet of free-agent contracts, Moreland made about $36MM in salary over the course of his 12 seasons in the Majors.

And, while many players go the majority of their career without sniffing the postseason, Moreland’s teams reached the playoffs in an incredible eight of his 12 big league seasons. He added on another 150 plate appearances over the life of 52 postseason games, batting .259/.329/.422 during that time. Congratulations to Moreland on a fine career, and best wishes in whatever lies ahead in his post-playing days.

Astros Facing Gaps In Extension Talks With Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez

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The Astros have spent the past few weeks attempting to work out extensions with a number of key players. Outfielder Kyle Tucker and starting pitcher Framber Valdez are among those with whom the club has been in contact, though the New York Post’s Jon Heyman now casts some doubt on the chances of either player signing this spring.

Astros GM Dana Brown tells Heyman the club expects to know whether anything will transpire within the next 48 hours. Brown frankly tells Heyman the team is “further away (in negotiations) with Tucker” than Valdez but didn’t handicap the odds of getting a deal done with either player.

Teammate Yordan Alvarez represents one potential comparison point in discussions with Tucker, who has between three and four years of service time. The slugger signed a six-year, $115MM deal just last June, agreeing to a fairly rare midseason extension of significance. Alvarez technically was just shy of three years of service at the time of signing but inked a deal that didn’t go into effect until this year. For all intents and purposes, he was essentially in the same service bucket as Tucker now finds himself.

Alvarez is a better hitter than Tucker and one of the best offensive players in baseball. His career wRC+ of 164 trails only Mike Trout among active players with at least 1500 plate appearances. However, he’s also had some knee issues and been mostly limited to designated hitter, with only part-time work in left field. Tucker, by contrast, is an excellent defensive right fielder.

Alvarez’s deal was the second-largest for a player in the 3-4 year service window. The record still belongs to Freddie Freeman, who signed an eight-year, $135MM deal with the Braves ahead of the 2014 season. Freeman was a year younger than Tucker is now and coming off a stronger platform season. However, that deal is a decade old at this point and Tucker’s camp could look to beat that pact. However, such a deal would be the longest deal in Astros history and the second richest, with only Jose Altuve’s $151MM guarantee surpassing it.

Brown indicated that Tucker is seeking out a longer-term deal than the Astros have historically given out. For his part, the GM seems to have little interest in breaking that organizational tradition, telling Heyman, “I understand that [avoidance of long-term deals], and I respect that. A lot of those long-term deals, they don’t end well.”

Given this, it’s no surprise that Astros brass seems to feel better about their odds of extending Valdez. The southpaw can also look to a teammate as a direct extension comp. In his case, it’s righty Cristian Javier, who signed a five-year, $64MM pact last month. That represented the largest guarantee for a starting pitcher with between three and four years of service time.

It’s fair to expect Valdez’s camp would want to top that mark. Javier’s track record pales in comparison to that of Valdez; while both pitchers sport a 3.05 ERA since the start of the 2020 season, Valdez’s 3.34 FIP outshines Javier’s figure of 3.90 while the lefty also has volume on his side. Valdez has thrown 406 2/3 innings since the start of the 2020 campaign, more than a hundred ahead of Javier, and his career best 201 1/3 innings in 2022 have the look of a modern-day workhorse. Javier, by contrast, recorded a seventh inning out just twice during the 2022 season.

That’s partially reflected in Valdez’s better earning power in arbitration. He’s set to make $6.8MM for the upcoming season, whereas Javier was headed for a first-year arbitration salary around $3MM. Valdez, as a Super Two qualifier over the 2021-22 offseason, also had an extra season of arbitration eligibility to build that stronger platform salary. That gap would’ve compounded on an annual basis considering arbitration salaries are based in part on a player’s previous-year salary.

Javier, who celebrates his 26th birthday later this month, had youth on his side in signing that extension compared to Valdez. The southpaw is already 29. That perhaps makes Javier a cleaner long-term bet from the team’s perspective, though it also puts more of a premium for Valdez on securing a lofty guarantee if he’s to sign an extension. While Javier will still get to free agency shortly before turning 31, Valdez would be signing away at least his age-32 season (and perhaps beyond) in any deal that buys out free agent seasons.

Both Valdez and Tucker are controllable through the end of the 2025 season, given the club ample time to revisit contract talks in the future, even if no extensions get done in Brown’s proposed 48-hour window. With that being said, Brown could certainly continue attempting to extend the stay of either Alex Bregman or Altuve in Houston once negotiations with Tucker and Valdez have been tabled. Both veterans are set to become free agents following the 2024 season, meaning there will be far more urgency in locking up that pair of players going forward, particularly once the 2023 season has drawn to a close. The GM has already expressed a desire to retain both players, saying he’d like to keep both in Houston for the entirety of their careers.

Lorenzo Cain To Officially Retire As A Royal This Summer

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Outfielder Lorenzo Cain was released by the Brewers in June of last year and didn’t sign with another team. He tells Andy McCullough of The Athletic that he got some interest from other clubs but ultimately decided to call it a career. He will return to Kauffman Stadium at some point during the upcoming season to officially retire as a Royal, though the timing and logistics of that are still being worked out.

Cain was certainly struggling last year, as he had a batting line of .179/.231/.234 at the time he was cut loose by the Brewers. But his defensive grades were still good and he had been roughly average at the plate the year before. It seems a few teams thought he still had something left in the tank. Cain says the Dodgers were in touch, as were players on the Phillies and Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals. However, Cain decided to defer to his three young boys.

“I left it in the hands of my boys,” Cain said to McCullough. “I said, ‘Hey, do you guys want Daddy to continue to play ball? Or are you ready for Daddy to be done and go home?’ And they said, ‘Dad, we want you to go home.’ And I said, ‘OK, then.’ So I’ve been done. I just haven’t announced it, I guess.” As mentioned, the details of the upcoming ceremony are still being hashed out, but Cain says they are tentatively targeting the month of May. Once the paperwork is filed, it will officially bring to a close a career that was bookended by time with Milwaukee but had its greatest highlights in Kansas City.

The Brewers selected Cain in the 17th round of the 2004 draft. He worked his way up through the minors and cracked the big leagues in 2010, getting into 43 games that year. Prior to the 2011 campaign, the rebuilding Royals sent Zack Greinke and Yuniesky Betancourt to the Brewers in exchange for Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffress, Jake Odorizzi and Cain.

Lorenzo Cain | Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY SportsHis first year with his new club was primarily spent in the minors and then Cain was hurt for much of 2012. In 2013, he started to show signs of becoming a viable major leaguer, as he got into 115 games, stole 14 bases and provided excellent defense. He took another step forward in 2014, hitting .301 on the year and swiping 28 bags. He helped the club to the World Series that year, winning ALCS MVP along the way.

The Royals lost that World Series but were back the next year, thanks in no small part to Cain. He hit 16 home runs in 2015, effectively doubling his career tally at that time, as he had just 17 coming into the year. He also stole another 28 bases, continued to be great in the field and hit .307. He made the All-Star game that year, the first of two selections for him, and the Royals eventually emerged victorious in that year’s World Series.

Cain would play another couple of seasons in Kansas City before reaching free agency. He returned to the Brewers on a five-year, $80MM deal going into 2018. He continued to be an excellent player in the first few years of that contract, providing his typical blend of speed and defense, along with a few home runs. He was selected to the All-Star game again in 2018 and won a Gold Glove award in 2019.

Cain played five games in 2020 before deciding to opt out due to the pandemic. He was then hampered by injuries in 2021, getting into just 78 games. He struggled out of the gate in 2022 and was ultimately let go by the Brewers. As mentioned up top, Cain seemed to have some chances to continue his playing career but ultimately decided to be with his family instead.

Cain goes into the history books with 1,220 hits, including 225 doubles, 24 triples and 87 home runs. He scored 626 runs, drove 454 of them in and stole 190 bases. He was a two-time All-Star, a Gold Glove winner and a World Series champion. We at MLB Trade Rumors salute him on a fine career and wish him all the best in retirement.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rockies Sign Brad Hand

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MARCH 6: The 2024 option would convert into a mutual option if Hand either finishes 25 games or is traded at any point during the upcoming season, reports the Associated Press. Hand could earn an additional $1MM in performance bonuses both this season and during 2024 (if the option is triggered). He’d receive $250K apiece at 40 and 50 appearances and $500K if he gets into 60 games.

MARCH 4: The Rockies announced agreement with reliever Brad Hand on a one-year deal on Saturday. It’s a $2MM guarantee, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (via Twitter links).  The guaranteed money breaks down as a $1.5MM salary in 2023, and then a $500K buyout of a $7MM club option the Rockies hold on Hand’s services for the 2024 season.  Another $1MM bonus is available for Hand if he is still in the organization by Opening Day, with Rosenthal noting that means either on the active roster or on the injured list.  Hand turns 33 later this month. He is represented by the Wasserman Agency.

Right-hander Tyler Kinley will be placed on the 60-day injured list to create roster space for Hand, MLB.com’s Thomas Harding reports (Twitter link).  Kinley is expected to be out of action until at least midseason after undergoing elbow surgery last June.

Once Hand appears in an official game in the purple pinstripes, it will mark 13 MLB seasons and eight different teams for the veteran southpaw.  Hand inked a one-year, $6MM with the Phillies last winter and contributed to the Phils’ push to the NL pennant, delivering a 2.80 ERA over 45 regular-season innings and then a 4.76 ERA in 5 2/3 postseason frames.  That small sample size of playoff work was perhaps more reflective of Hand’s overall quality in 2022, as he had a 4.51 SIERA and 4.90 xFIP, and his .297 wOBA was well under his .323 xwOBA.  Hand did a very good job of limiting hard contact last year, but with subpar strikeout and walk rates.

All things considered, Hand’s 2022 advanced metrics weren’t far removed — or in some cases were worse — than his 2021 metrics, though he had a lot more good fortune with that 2.80 ERA as opposed to his 3.90 mark with the Nationals, Mets, and Blue Jays in 2021.  (MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently took a deeper dive into Hand’s 2022 performance.) Hand was also a lot better at keeping the ball in the park with the Phillies — he allowed only two homers in his 45 frames last year, after giving up nine long balls over 64 2/3 innings in 2021.

The soft contact and ability to keep the ball in the park is naturally of interest for a team that plays in Coors Field, and the Rockies ended up acquiring Hand after a relatively quiet offseason in terms of publicly-known interest.  The Cubs and Twins were both linked to Hand over the last month, though in general, the market for left-handed relief pitching was mostly pretty slow after an initial flurry prior to Christmas.  Only in recent weeks has the ice started to thaw, as names like Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore, and (just earlier today) Will Smith have now come off the board.

Speaking of quiet offseasons, the Rockies haven’t done a whole lot of note this winter, much to the consternation of fans who saw the club lose 94 games in 2022.  Colorado has done a fair amount of work in the bullpen, at least, as Hand joins such names as Pierce Johnson, Nick Mears, and fellow left-handers Brent Suter and Ty Blach and Fernando Abad.  Since Blach and Abad were minor league signings, Hand’s deal might push one or both of those other lefties out of consideration for spot on the Opening Day roster.

The club option also gives Colorado some control over Hand’s future if he does fully regain his past form.  Hand was one of the better relievers in the sport when pitching with San Diego and Cleveland from 2016-20, and naturally the Rockies saw him often back in his Padres days.  Since Johnson, Suter, and Dinelson Lamet are all slated for free agency after the 2023 season, the Rockies could keep at least one pitcher in the fold by exercising Hand’s option, if he pitches well enough to make that $6.5MM decision a wise one for the Rox.

MLB Completes Mike Clevinger Investigation, No Discipline Forthcoming

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News broke in January that Mike Clevinger was under investigation from the league, as per allegations of domestic violence and child abuse.  Major League Baseball announced the results of that investigation today, and Clevinger will not face any suspension or other discipline from the league.

MLB’s statement: “The comprehensive investigation included interviews of more than 15 individuals, in addition to Mr. Clevinger and the complainant, as well as a review of available documents, such as thousands of electronic communication records.  The Office of the Commissioner has closed this investigation and, barring the receipt of any new information or evidence, the Office of the Commissioner will not be imposing discipline on Mr. Clevinger in connection with these allegations.

As part of his path forward, Mr. Clevinger has voluntarily agreed to submit to evaluations by the joint treatment boards under the collectively bargained policies, and to comply with any of the boards’ recommendations.  MLB will continue to make support services available to Mr. Clevinger, his family, and other individuals involved in the investigation.”

The league’s investigation has been ongoing since last summer, as Olivia Finestead (the mother of Clevinger’s 10-month-old child) told The Athletic’s Brittany Ghiroli and Katie Strang in that January story.  The allegations included two incidents where Clevinger was accused of choking Finestead, and another when he slapped her and threw used chewing tobacco on their child.  Clevinger’s lawyers “emphatically” denied the charges, calling the allegations “false” and saying that “the simple truth is that Mike has done nothing wrong.”

In regards to the end of the league’s investigation today, Clevinger released his own statement, via the MLB Players Association (Twitter link).  “I had nothing to hide and cooperated fully with MLB,” Clevinger said.  “This situation has been stressful for my family, and I thank them for their strength and support.  I asked everyone not to rush to judgement until MLB’s investigation was concluded, and I appreciate everyone who had faith in me, including the White Sox organization and my teammates.  I am looking forward to the 2023 season and helping the White Sox win a championship this year.”

Under the broad purview of the MLB/MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse policy established in August 2015, the league had the ability to impose a wide range of disciplinary actions against Clevinger.  In most cases, discipline takes the form of suspensions without pay, with past suspensions ranging anywhere from 15 games to the record 324 games issued against Trevor Bauer (with Bauer’s suspension later reduced to 194 games by a neutral arbitrator).

The allegations issued against Clevinger came when he was a member of the Padres, and the right-hander then signed with the White Sox for a one-year deal worth $12MM in guaranteed money.  (Clevinger earns $8MM in 2023, and there is a $4MM buyout of a mutual option on his services for 2024.)  According to a statement from the team when news of the investigation went public, the Sox “were not aware of the allegations or the investigation at the time of [Clevinger’s] signing.”  Clevinger was signed to provide essentially replace Johnny Cueto in Chicago’s rotation, as Clevinger will join Dylan Cease, Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, and Michael Kopech in the starting five.

Rockies To Sign Mike Moustakas

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12:02PM: Moustakas isn’t being considered for second base duty, Harding tweets.  In other Twitter links, Harding shared some comments from Moustakas, who said “I finally feel good” in the wake of his injuries, and he didn’t want to sign anywhere until he was closer to full health.  The Moose was non-committal about the idea of accepting a minor league assignment to Triple-A if he didn’t make the Rockies’ Opening Day roster, saying “that’s something we’ll talk about if it happens.”

8:44AM: The Rockies have agreed to a minor league deal with veteran infielder Mike Moustakas, MLB.com’s Thomas Harding reports (Twitter link).  Moustakas is represented by the Boras Corporation, and he became a free agent after being released by the Reds in early January.

Assuming Moustakas makes Colorado’s roster, the Rockies will only owe him the Major League minimum salary.  The Reds will be responsible for the rest of the $22MM salary Moustakas is slated to earn in 2023, as per the four-year, $64MM deal he signed with Cincinnati during the 2019-20 offseason.  The Moose will earn $18MM in salary, and the Reds are also on the hook for a $4MM buyout of a $20MM club option for the 2024 season.

It makes for a pretty low-risk experiment for a Rockies team that is suddenly short on infielders, given how Brendan Rodgers seems likely to miss most or all of the 2023 season while recovering from a dislocated shoulder.  With surgery a distinct possibility for Rodgers, Colorado was aiming to fill his second base spot by moving Ryan McMahon over from third base, except Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that Moustakas is now being tabbed to fill in at the keystone.  This plan would allow the Rox to keep McMahon at third base, and keep second-year players Nolan Jones and Elehuris Montero (who were lined up to take over at the hot corner) in backup roles.

Moustakas has played 613 2/3 big league innings as a second baseman, almost entirely in 2019-20 with the Brewers and Reds.  While he was a passable option at the position, public defensive metrics rated Moustakas below average, with a -0.9 UZR/150, -4 Defensive Runs Saved, and -2 Outs Above Average.  There isn’t an easy way for Rodgers to be replaced, naturally, but it represents something of a curious move for Colorado to target Moustakas as an answer given how other more experienced middle infielders were available in free agency, or on the trade market.

That said, Moustakas comes at a far lesser financial cost than most other options, and it could be that Colorado simply didn’t want too much of a lineup shuffle given McMahon’s defensive prowess at third base.  With Opening Day still weeks away, the Rockies’ plans might yet still change, as Moustakas can theoretically fit at several other spots around the infield.  His left-handed bat might factor into the Rockies’ plans at first base and DH, since C.J. Cron and Sean Bouchard are both right-handed hitters.

While Moustakas is a good fit on paper, however, it remains to be seen what version of the Moose the Rockies are getting as he enters his age-34 season.  Moustakas was plagued by injuries (a heel contusion and a calf strain) over his last two years in Cincinnati, resulting in a mediocre .212/.289/.356 slash line in 491 plate appearances since the start of the 2021 season.  With those two sub-replacement level seasons cratering his trade value, the Reds opted to simply release Moustakas heading into the final guaranteed year of his contract, eating his salary and opening up more playing time as Cincinnati continues its rebuild.

Prior to those injury-shortened 2021-22 seasons, Moustakas was a solid performer for the Royals, Brewers, and Reds from 2015-20, hitting .262/.326/.490 with 138 homers over 2707 plate appearances (good for a 113 wRC+).  The Moose was named to three All-Star games during that stretch, and he was also a big part of Kansas City’s World Series championship team in 2015.

While staying healthy is naturally the key to any hope for a rebound season, Moustakas’ move to Coors Field might help reinvigorate his bat.  The new defensive rules would seemingly help given how Moustakas faced shifts 81 percent of the time in 2022, though his production against shifts (in the Statcast era) has fluctuated heavily, with some seasons of better production hitting into shifts than against a regular fielding alignment.  If anything, the new defensive rules might put more pressure on Moustakas from a second base perspective, as he’ll now be asked to cover more ground in the field.

The Rockies have now made two veteran additions in as many days, between the Moustakas signing and their one-year deal yesterday with left-handed reliever Brad Hand.  It’s a quick pivot for the team, who learned earlier this week about Rodgers and the strong possibility that reliever Lucas Gilbreath will need Tommy John surgery.

Rangers Sign Will Smith

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8:49AM: Smith will earn $1.5MM in guaranteed money, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link).  Up to $2.5MM in bonus money is also available, related to incentives based on total appearances and games finished, indicating that Smith might indeed get some consideration for a closer role.

8:03AM: The Rangers announced that veteran left-hander Will Smith has been signed to a one-year, Major League contract.  Infielder Mark Mathias has been designated for assignment to create space for Smith on the roster.

After spending the latter portion of the 2022 season with the World Series champion Astros, Smith now joins the Lone Star State’s other team.  The Braves traded Smith to Houston at the trade deadline, which seemed to get the veteran on track after a rough start to the season.  Smith posted a 3.27 ERA over 22 innings with the Astros, and cut down drastically on the walks and home runs that plagued him earlier in the year with Atlanta.

Though he didn’t pitch for the Astros in the postseason, Smith still earned his second consecutive championship ring, after also being part of Atlanta’s World Series-winning squad in 2021.  The veteran lefty now joins a Rangers team that hasn’t had a winning season since 2016, but has invested heavily over the last two offseasons to upgrade the roster.  Bruce Bochy was hired as manager this winter to further bolster the club, and Smith is certainly familiar with his new skipper, having played under Bochy with the Giants from 2016-19.

As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted in January, Smith’s move to Houston saw him make some changes in pitch usage and mechanics.  The southpaw’s success in the wake of those changes might’ve answered any doubts over whether or not Smith had anything left in the tank at age 33, and addressed concerns over his below-average walk and hard-hit ball rates for the season as a whole.  That said, there is probably also a reason why Smith remained unsigned until March 4, and there wasn’t even much public buzz about his market until a few weeks ago, when teams like the Tigers and Cubs reportedly showed interest.

For the Rangers, their need for left-handed bullpen depth increased when Brett Martin underwent shoulder surgery in January, as Martin might end up missing the entirety of the 2023 campaign.  Smith joins Brock Burke as the primary left-handed weapons in the Texas bullpen, with Smith probably likely to take a more traditional relief role while Burke returns as a multi-inning pitcher.  Taylor Hearn and minor league signings Danny Duffy and Joe Palumbo are also in camp, and Smith’s acquisition might squeeze one of the non-roster invitees out of a shot at the Opening Day roster.

Since Smith was a regular closer as recently as the 2021 season, it isn’t out of the question that the Rangers are eyeing him for another late-game role.  Texas is hopeful that Jose Leclerc or Jonathan Hernandez can fill late-game roles now that they’re fully healthy, but adding a veteran arm like Smith is also a shrewd depth move.  Smith pitched as a closer under Bochy in San Francisco in 2018-19, so the manager might opt to lean on a familiar face if the Rangers do choose to go with a set closer rather than a committee.

Texas acquired Mathias as part of the deadline deal that sent Matt Bush to the Brewers last August, and Mathias ended up appearing in 24 games as the Rangers played out the string.  In the small sample size of 74 plate appearances, Mathias hit very well (a .277/.365/.554 slash line), so that hot streak and his multi-positional ability gave the 28-year-old some hope of catching on with Texas in a utility role this season.  That scenario is still a possibility if Mathias can clear waivers, but with Robbie Grossman recently signed to bolster the outfield mix, the Rangers might prefer to see what the likes of Ezequiel Duran or Josh Smith can do as backup infielders.

Mathias has played in parts of two MLB seasons, with Milwaukee and Texas.  Originally a third-round pick for Cleveland in the 2015 draft, Mathis has a strong .286/.377/.466 slash line over 715 career PA at the Triple-A level, so between that production and his spurt of offense with the Rangers last year, a club looking for utility help might be tempted to make a waiver claim.

Padres Likely To Explore Extension Talks With Josh Hader, Juan Soto This Spring

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The Padres achieved their top priority of the spring over the weekend, agreeing to an 11-year, $350MM deal with Manny Machado to keep him from retesting the free agent market next offseason. That came on the heels of a summer deal for Joe Musgrove and a recent extension with Yu Darvish.

Even after that series of transactions, the Friars have a handful of key players slated to hit the open market within the next two years. Last summer’s marquee deadline acquisitions — Josh Hader and Juan Soto — are both deep into their arbitration seasons. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that San Diego is likely to soon be in contact with both players’ camps to discuss possible extension frameworks. Dennis Lin of the Athletic similarly wrote this week the Friars were likely to take a run at extension talks with Soto.

There hasn’t been as much speculation regarding possible Hader negotiations. It’s not a surprise that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his front office plan to at least check in with the four-time All-Star, though. Hader is one season away from the open market and joins Blake Snell as the top impending free agents on the San Diego roster.

29 next month, Hader has a chance of securing a record-setting deal for a reliever. He owns a sterling 2.71 ERA with an eye-popping 43.2% strikeout rate over parts of six big league campaigns. No pitcher (minimum 200 innings) has punched out hitters at a higher rate since Hader came into the league. He’s three percentage points clear of second-place finisher Edwin Díaz. Hader also leads the league in SIERA (2.13) and swinging strike percentage (19.2%) over that stretch.

Díaz is second in both those categories as well. The Mets’ closer became the first reliever in league history to top the hundred million dollar mark this offseason, returning to Queens on a five-year, $102MM pact days before free agency opened. Díaz signed that deal in advance of his age-29 campaign and coming off one of the most dominant seasons by a closer in recent memory. He fanned more than half his opponents en route to a 1.31 ERA in 62 innings.

Hader, on the other hand, is coming off arguably the worst season of his career. He allowed more than five earned runs per nine, including a disappointing 7.31 mark in 19 appearances after the Padres acquired him from Milwaukee. Hader was a bit homer-prone early in the season with the Brewers. While he got that under control in San Diego, his walk rate jumped a few percentage points towards year’s end.

Despite that wobbly conclusion, Hader still enters extension negotiations with strong leverage. He’ll play the upcoming season on a hefty $14.1MM contract after avoiding arbitration. The lanky southpaw remains one of the sport’s highest-upside relief weapons. Even in his relative down year, Hader finished sixth among relievers who threw 50+ innings with a 37% strikeout rate. He placed 18th in swinging strike rate and averaged a personal-high 97.4 MPH on his sinker.

Hader’s youth and career résumé still position him as the favorite for the largest contract among relievers in next winter’s class. Díaz’s deal serves as a reference for the kind of money Hader could land if he had a vintage platform season. The New York righty had some ups and downs in the years leading up to 2022 — including a 5.59 ERA in 2019 and a fine but not overwhelming 3.45 mark in ’21 — before reaching new heights last season.

Considering his hefty arbitration salaries and proximity to free agency, Hader isn’t under pressure to sign for below-market rates this spring. He told Heyman he’d “definitely” be open to extension talks but didn’t offer any indication he’d take a hometown discount. “It’s a great place to be, but at the end of the day, business is business,” Hader said.

Locking up Soto would be an even more challenging endeavor, of course. The three-time Silver Slugger is playing this season on a $23MM arbitration contract. He’s likely to approach or top $30MM for his final arbitration season in 2024 and is trending towards free agency over the 2024-25 offseason. Soto would hit the market before his age-26 campaign and is generally expected to command the largest guarantee in league history (although the intervening potential free agency of Shohei Ohtani could first set a new high-water mark).

Soto has already declined an offer for what would’ve been the largest deal in MLB history. The Nationals reportedly offered a 15-year, $440MM pact last summer. Soto passed, leading Washington to pivot to trade discussions that’d eventually culminate in one of the biggest deadline deals ever. Soto’s performance in San Diego after the trade — .238/.388/.390 with more walks than strikeouts through 228 plate appearances — was disappointing by his massive standards but still markedly above average.

It stands to reason the Padres would at least have to beat the $440MM the Nats were prepared to offer in order to convince Soto to bypass a trip to the open market. How high he and his representatives are aiming isn’t clear, though Soto told Heyman his camp is “open to talking” with San Diego brass. However, he also added that “every player wants to get a try at free agency and a chance to decide where they want to go and where is best for their family.”

The Padres project for the third-highest luxury tax payroll in the majors this season, with Roster Resource forecasting them just under $275MM at present. Long-term deals for Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Musgrove, Darvish and Robert Suarez already have upwards of $130MM on the books through 2027. Tatis, Bogaerts and Machado alone will count for nearly $100MM annually between 2028-33. That’s plenty of future money tied up, though it also reinforces how willing owner Peter Seidler and the front office have been to commit to star talent.

Gavin Lux Will Miss 2023 Season Due To Torn ACL

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Dodgers manager Dave Roberts announced this morning that infielder Gavin Lux suffered a torn ACL in his right knee during yesterday’s Cactus League game and will miss the 2023 season (Twitter thread via Juan Toribio of MLB.com). Lux also sustained damage to his right knee’s LCL. He’ll undergo surgery on March 7.

Lux, 25, was slated to step into the spotlight as the Dodgers’ primary shortstop following the free-agent departures of Corey Seager following the 2021 season and Trea Turner this past offseason. However, while advancing from second to third base on a grounder in yesterday’s game, Lux altered his course a bit to avoid a throw across the diamond. In doing so, the infielder’s knee buckled, and he immediately tumbled to the ground in pain. Lux was unable to put any weight on his right leg and was carted off the field.

With Lux now out for the season, the Dodgers’ January reacquisition of infielder Miguel Rojas now becomes a far more pivotal pickup. Rojas, who’s spent the past half decade as the Marlins’ primary shortstop (after being traded from the Dodgers to Miami), is a light hitter but grades out as one of the best defensive shortstops in the game. He’d been ticketed for a utility role but will now step up as the everyday shortstop in Lux’s absence. Roberts added that Swiss army knife Chris Taylor could get some reps in the infield as well, and Mookie Betts could see some extra work at second base for the Dodgers, too (Twitter link via Jack Harris of the L.A. Times).

The 2022 season saw Lux take the field for a career-high 129 games and slash 276/.346/.399 in a career-high 471 plate appearances. That was solid production — 13% better than average, per wRC+ — but it also bears mentioning that a woeful cold streak in September and October weighed down Lux’s end-of-season numbers. Lux was slowed by neck and and upper-back soreness late in the year, receiving a cortisone injection and missing about two weeks of action while mending that injury. Based on the way his season finished out, it doesn’t seem the injection and downtime had their intended effect.

Through Sept. 1, Lux was slashing a far more robust .293/.368/.428 in 418 plate appearances. During the season’s first five months, he walked at an 11% clip and fanned at a lower-than-average 18.9% rate. Upon returning on Sept. 17, however, Lux tallied 53 more plate appearances but hit just .154/.170/.192 with an alarming 30.2% strikeout rate and 1.9% walk rate.

Between that five-month run to open the 2022 season, a strong K-BB profile, sharp defensive grades at second base and Lux’s pedigree as a former first-round pick and universally lauded top prospect, a 2023 breakout seemed like a real possibility. That’ll no longer be the case, and it’s a gut-punch for both the Dodgers and for Lux. He’ll spend the year on the injured list, gaining Major League service time along the way and inching closer to free agency at the conclusion of the 2026 season.

Rojas figures to be a downgrade with the bat on the heels of a .236/.283/.323 showing in 2022. While he did post a much more solid .277/.334/.398 line from 2019-21 (1208 plate appearances), Rojas just turned 34 and has seen his quality of contact degrade considerably over the past couple seasons. However, while he doesn’t have the offensive upside of Lux, Rojas should provide the Dodgers with lights-out glovework at the position. He piled up a gaudy 15 Defensive Runs Saved and 11 Outs Above Average with the Marlins at shortstop in 2022, and dating back to 2017 he’s been credited with 27 DRS and 19 OAA in more than 4800 innings.

Even if Rojas gives the Dodgers a more-than-passable replacement option at shortstop, Lux’s injury still thins out the organization’s infield depth in a meaningful way — particularly with top prospect and projected regular second baseman Miguel Vargas also dealing with a hairline fracture in his pinkie finger. While there’s no indication Vargas is expected to miss substantial time with the injury — he’s playing in Cactus League games but not swinging during his plate appearances at the moment — subtracting Lux from the roster likely pushes a depth option such as Yonny Hernandez up from Triple-A. The outfield depth is also impacted, as any time Taylor spends in the infield cuts into his availability elsewhere on the diamond.

It’s feasible that the Dodgers could yet look to add some infield depth, though options on the free-agent market at this point are extremely limited. Veterans like Jose Iglesias, Jonathan Villar, Didi Gregorius and Andrelton Simmons remain unsigned, but the latter three in particular have had their share of recent struggles. The Dodgers are no strangers to making small-scale trades and adding depth via waivers, of course, and this injury gives them the freedom to accommodate a new acquisition on the 40-man roster by shifting Lux to the 60-day injured list.

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