Walker Buehler Won’t Return This Year
The Dodgers announced that right-hander Walker Buehler, who recently began a rehab assignment after undergoing Tommy John surgery last year, won’t return to the club this year. He will instead focusing on getting healthy for 2024.
“My goal since last year has been to return to a major league mound this season,” Buehler says in a club statement. “After many conversations with my doctor, the Dodgers’ front office, training staff and my family, we concluded that waiting until next season is the right course of action. I am disappointed that I will not be able to help this team go after a title in the 2023 postseason, but I look forward to returning fully healthy in 2024 and bringing another World Series to L.A.”
Buehler, 29, underwent Tommy John surgery in August of last year. Given that the recovery period for that procedure often pushes to 14 months or more, his ability to return in 2023 was questionable right from the get-go. Nonetheless, he planned to give it a try, saying earlier in the year that he was targeting a September return. That plan still seemed to be on track as recently as this weekend, when Buehler started a rehab assignment, tossing two innings for Triple-A Oklahoma City on Sunday.
But it seems that Buehler, along with the various other parties he mentioned, have decided that it’s no longer feasible. It’s unclear exactly what the situation is, but Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times reports that there was no setback and that Buehler still feels good physically. He just hasn’t progressed enough and pushing himself in the next few weeks comes with too high a risk of re-injury.
While it sounds like both the pitcher and the club have agreed that prioritizing his long-term health is the sensible approach, it will be a significant challenge for the club in the short-term given the other challenges they are facing in the rotation. Dustin May required flexor tendon surgery earlier this year and Tony Gonsolin required Tommy John surgery not too long ago. Both of them are now out for the remainder of this year and at least part of next year as well. Julio Urías was placed on administrative leave earlier this week as the league investigates him for a possible domestic violence violation. His situation is unclear but it seems unlikely he will be returning anytime soon.
Those absences, along with today’s news about Buehler, make the rotation start to feel a bit flimsy. The Dodgers are in a healthy place overall with a record of 85-54, putting them 13 games up on the Diamondbacks in the division and eight games ahead of the Brewers for a bye through the first round of the playoffs. But starting pitching takes on magnified importance in the postseason when teams lean on their top pitchers more often.
The Dodgers still have Clayton Kershaw on the active roster, though his health is a big question mark at the moment. He already missed over a month of the season, from early July to the middle of August, due to a shoulder issue. While on the IL, he spoke about how he felt fine but was being told to rest after undergoing an MRI. He’s now been back for over a month but it seems that situation is lingering.
Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic looked into the details this week, highlighting that Kershaw failed to hit 90 mph with his fastball at any point in his most recent outing, despite averaging over 91 mph with the pitch earlier in the year. Kershaw continues to assert that he feels fine, in spite of the clearly diminished stuff. Manager Dave Roberts conceded that Kershaw was still not 100% healthy but insisted he would continue to pitch. “He’s going to keep going until he can’t,” Roberts said. “If he is able to take the baseball, he’s going to take the baseball.”
There’s also Lance Lynn, acquired from the White Sox at the deadline, though he has an earned run average of 6.09 on the year. That mark was 6.47 with Chicago and he initially showed better results after changing jerseys, but he went on to allow 15 earned runs over his two most recent starts. Ryan Yarbrough has a 3.80 ERA but the club doesn’t seem to trust him beyond pitching bulk innings out of the bullpen.
Beyond them, the club is relying on rookies, with some encouraging results in there. Bobby Miller has a 3.80 ERA on the year in his 17 starts and Ryan Pepiot is at 0.86 in his four outings. On the less encouraging side, Emmet Sheehan has an ERA of 5.31 while Michael Grove is at 6.61 and currently rehabbing a lat strain.
All in all, there are plenty of questions in that mix, either due to health or a lack of experience or general ineffectiveness. Bringing Buehler back could have been a difference maker, as he has a 3.02 career ERA in the regular season and a 2.94 mark in the postseason. However, it seems that’s not in the cards and the Dodgers will have to cobble together a playoff rotation without him. Buehler will instead set his sights on the 2024 campaign, which will be important for him personally, as that will be his final arbitration season before he is slated to reach free agency.
D-Backs Promote Jordan Lawlar
September 7: The Diamondbacks have now made Lawlar’s promotion official, announced that move and Ahmed’s DFA today. They also activated catcher Seby Zavala, claimed off waivers this week, and recalled right-hander Ryne Nelson. Catcher José Herrera and right-hander Bryce Jarvis were optioned in corresponding moves for Zavala and Nelson.
September 6: The Diamondbacks are calling up top infield prospect Jordan Lawlar, reports Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (Twitter link). They’ll presumably make the move official tomorrow in advance of a pivotal four-game series against the Cubs. Arizona is designating Nick Ahmed for assignment in a corresponding move.
Lawlar seems likely to take over as the primary third baseman. Piecoro wrote this afternoon that the Snakes were considering him as an option at the hot corner. Lawlar made his first professional start there with Triple-A Reno last night. That’s obviously a very limited look, but teams generally feel comfortable moving shortstops to other infield positions.
A Dallas native, Lawlar was regarded as one of the top prospects in the 2021 draft class coming out of high school. He somewhat surprisingly lasted until the sixth pick, though Arizona went above slot with the third-highest signing bonus to add him to the system.
Lawlar’s draft season was cut short by an injury to his left shoulder, which required surgery. He didn’t show any signs of rust the following year, though. The right-handed hitter put together a .303/.401/.509 batting line in his first full professional season. He reached Double-A Amarillo late last year, an impressive achievement for a player who had just turned 20 years old.
That huge showing cemented Lawlar’s status as one of the sport’s most talented prospects. Arizona assigned him back to Amarillo to begin the 2023 campaign. He started relatively slowly but has caught fire since the weather warmed up. Lawlar has an OPS north of .900 in the minors for each month since June. He hit .263/.366/.474 in 410 Double-A plate appearances overall to earn a bump to Reno in mid-August. Lawlar has only appeared in 16 games there, mashing at a .358/.438/.612 clip.
While he’s had the benefit of playing in favorable hitting environments, Lawlar’s cumulative .278/.378/.496 line on the year is strong. He’s walking at a quality 11.4% clip against a decent 20.6% strikeout rate. He has popped 20 homers, 23 doubles and four triples and gone 36-41 in stolen base attempts.
Baseball America recently slotted Lawlar as the sport’s #9 overall prospect, while Kiley McDaniel of ESPN placed him 25th. As his numbers indicate, he’s generally viewed as a well-rounded player with solid tools across the board. McDaniel suggests that a lack of a standout carrying tool could keep Lawlar more as a quality regular than a true star. Even if Lawlar doesn’t have quite the same upside as some top prospects, most evaluators seem confident in him being a productive everyday player at the major league level.
Whether that’ll be the case immediately could have an impact on this year’s playoff picture. Arizona beat Colorado this afternoon and remains tied with Miami, half a game behind the Reds for the final NL Wild Card spot. The Cubs occupy the second Wild Card position, so Arizona has a chance to directly make up ground when they head to Wrigley.
There’s risk with any prospect, particularly one who only has a year and a half of minor league reps under his belt. Yet Lawlar brings more offensive upside than Arizona’s current third base mix. The Snakes have used a combination of Jace Peterson, Emmanuel Rivera and occasionally Evan Longoria at the hot corner. While Rivera had played reasonably well early in the season, they’ve gotten almost nothing out of the position lately. Arizona third basemen are hitting .195/.298/.305 since the All-Star Break.
Geraldo Perdomo has also cooled off at shortstop after an All-Star first half. Yet he’s playing well enough overall to keep the hold onto that job, seemingly pushing Lawlar to the other left side infield position for now. It stands to reason Arizona still views Lawlar as a shortstop option if Perdomo gets injured or goes through an extended slump.
He’ll retain his rookie eligibility going into next season. If the D-Backs carry him for a full service year, Lawlar could net them an extra draft choice if he plays well enough to win Rookie of the Year or finish top three in MVP balloting during his pre-arbitration seasons. That’s a much further off possibility. For now, his focus will be on trying to help a young and increasingly exciting Arizona team to the postseason.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Diamondbacks Designate Nick Ahmed For Assignment
The Diamondbacks designated veteran shortstop Nick Ahmed for assignment, manager Torey Lovullo informed reporters (including Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic). That’s the corresponding move for the promotion of top infield prospect Jordan Lawlar.
It’ll close the book on Ahmed’s 10-year tenure in the desert. Arizona initially acquired him as part of a five-player return from the Braves for Justin Upton and Chris Johnson during the 2012-13 offseason. Ahmed debuted in the majors a year later and took over as the starting shortstop heading into 2015.
That was the first of six eventual Opening Day starts over the next nine years. Ahmed has never made much of an offensive impact, but he immediately broke in as one of the game’s preeminent defensive shortstops. In a little over 7000 career innings, Ahmed has rated an elite 80 runs above average by measure of Defensive Runs Saved. Among shortstops, only Andrelton Simmons has topped Ahmed in DRS over that stretch. Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric, which dates back to 2015, has placed him only behind Francisco Lindor (who has logged over 3000 more innings).
Ahmed deservedly secured consecutive Gold Glove awards in 2018-19. Heading into the 2020 campaign, Arizona signed him to a $32.5MM contract to cover his final arbitration season and three would-be free agent years. It was a bet in Ahmed maintaining his elite defensive form, but the deal didn’t go as the organization had hoped.
The first season went well. Ahmed hit at a nearly average level in the shortened season while continuing to play excellent defense. His offense plummeted to a .221/.280/.339 slash the following year. Ahmed continued to defend well but battled a shoulder injury toward season’s end. That unfortunately carried over into 2022, as the veteran was forced to undergo season-ending surgery last June.
Arizona turned the shortstop job back over to him headed into 2023. Ahmed continued to struggle offensively, though, and Arizona gave increasing playing time to Geraldo Perdomo. Ahmed has worked as a glove-first backup, appearing in 72 games and hitting .212/.257/.303 across 210 plate appearances.
Between Perdomo and Lawlar, it always seemed as if Arizona would move on from Ahmed once his contract expired at year’s end. With the D-Backs hoping for an offensive spark in calling up the 21-year-old top prospect, they bumped the veteran off the roster a few weeks early. Arizona will put Ahmed on waivers in the coming days. He’ll surely go unclaimed, as no team will want to take on the approximate $1.4MM remaining on his $10MM salary. He will very likely become a free agent — either via release or declining an outright assignment.
While he could then look for other opportunities, he wouldn’t be eligible for postseason play with another team. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he simply waits until the offseason to look for a new landing spot for 2024.
Gary Sanchez, Ji Man Choi Diagnosed With Fractures
Padres catcher Gary Sánchez broke his right wrist during this afternoon’s loss to the Phillies, manager Bob Melvin tells reporters (including Annie Heilbrunn and Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune). In other unfortunate news, first baseman Ji Man Choi suffered a Lisfranc fracture when he fouled a ball off his right foot during a rehab game with Triple-A El Paso last night.
Sánchez was hit by a 98 MPH fastball from Philadelphia reliever Jeff Hoffman. The pitch ran inside and caught Sánchez’s back wrist when he checked his swing. He was replaced by Luis Campusano.
It’ll bring an unfortunate end to what had been a solid rebound season. The veteran backstop didn’t find a big league opportunity until mid-May. He’d bounced from the Giants to the Mets on minor league deals and earned a very brief look in Queens. The Mets waived Sánchez after three games, with San Diego claiming him to hopefully solidify their catching situation.
The 30-year-old has performed better than the Friars had likely anticipated. Sánchez slugged 19 home runs in only 267 plate appearances. Even with a meager .288 on-base percentage, the power production made him an above-average hitter. That’s particularly true in comparison to the glove-first position. Catchers entered play Wednesday with a .237/.304/.395 slash.
While Sánchez has been maligned for his glove throughout his career, public metrics rated him as a solid defender this season. He received slightly better than average grades from Statcast for his blocking and pitch framing. His 21.2% caught stealing rate is a little north of this year’s 20% league average.
That all positioned Sánchez nicely in a weak upcoming free agent class. He’s headed back to the open market in a couple months, arguably headlining a group that also includes Mitch Garver, Víctor Caratini and Tom Murphy. That could still be the case, but he’ll now unfortunately go into the winter with some injury uncertainty.
The Friars will turn to Campusano and Brett Sullivan as the catching tandem down the stretch. With that duo already on the MLB roster, they don’t need to call on another catcher as the corresponding move once Sánchez inevitably lands on the injured list. Campusano is hitting .309/.347/.491 in 35 games this season. The 24-year-old will look to stake a claim to the #1 job headed into 2024.
Like Sánchez, Choi will also go into free agency after a major injury. The left-handed hitting first baseman has had an injury-wrecked ’23 campaign. Choi lost most of the season’s first half with a strain in his left Achilles tendon. He returned to the Pirates in the middle of July, in time for Pittsburgh to send him to San Diego alongside Rich Hill in a deadline deal.
Choi only got into seven games for the Friars. He suffered a rib strain a month ago. The foot injury suffered on his rehab stint will end his season and, quite likely, his San Diego tenure. He’ll hit free agency for the first time coming off an almost entirely lost year, in which he hit .179/.239/.440 in 92 big league plate appearances.
Marlins Place Sandy Alcantara, Jorge Soler On IL
The Marlins announced that they have placed right-hander Sandy Alcantara on the 15-day injured list with a right forearm flexor strain. Also, outfielder/designated hitter Jorge Soler going on the 10-day injured list due to a right oblique strain and right-hander Geoff Hartlieb has been designated for assignment. Outfielder Dane Myers and right-hander Edward Cabrera have been recalled while left-hander Devin Smeltzer had his contract selected.
It’s a batch of unfortunate and ill-timed news for the Marlins, who are in the thick of a playoff race. They haven’t qualified for the playoffs in a full season since 2003 but have a chance this year, currently just half a game behind the Reds for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. The club hasn’t provided any specifics about the expected absences but it seems possible they might have to undergo the rest of the race without either their best pitcher or their best power hitter.
Alcantara is one of the best pitchers in the sport when at his peak, which he showed last year. He finished 2022 with a 2.28 earned run average over 228 2/3 innings, earning the National League Cy Young in the process. He struck out 23.4% of batters, walked just 5.6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 53.4% rate. Here in 2023, his ERA has jumped to 4.14, but he seemed to have righted the ship after a rough start. He had a 5.08 ERA through June 21 but has a much more palatable 3.13 ERA since then. Soler, meanwhile, is an incredibly inconsistent hitter but is one of the best in the league when on a heater. He has 35 home runs this year and is slashing .240/.329/.513 overall for a wRC+ of 124.
Subtracting that arm from the pitching staff and that bat from the lineup is obviously less than ideal, especially when considering the timing. There’s just over three weeks remaining in the regular season, which doesn’t give either player much time to get healthy before it could be too late. Further updates will undoubtedly come after more tests, but both injuries are worrisome. Oblique strains are notoriously frustrating and can often keep players sidelined for weeks, even in mild cases.
A flexor strain, meanwhile, can be even more serious. Both Dustin May of the Dodgers and Drew Rasmussen of the Rays were diagnosed with flexor strains earlier this year before each required season-ending surgery. That’s not to say that Alcantara is necessarily going to follow the same path, but it shows the potential severity of today’s news.
Looking ahead to the winter, Alcantara won’t be significantly impacted from a financial perspective as he signed an extension that runs through 2026 with a club option for 2027. Soler, on the other hand, has one year and $9MM remaining on his deal but can opt out at season’s end. Assuming he is healthy, he should be able to top that guarantee on the open market based on his strong season and the lack of impact bats available this winter.
For now, it seems as though Cabrera will jump into the rotation to replace Alcantara. The 25-year-old posted a 4.79 ERA in 17 starts earlier this year, with an unsightly 15.4% walk rate, before getting optioned down to the minors. In five Triple-A starts since then, he has a 2.22 ERA with a 10.6% walk rate that’s still high but a marked improvement over his major league results this year.
Hartlieb, 29, signed a minor league deal with the Marlins in the offseason and had his contract selected a month ago. He’s only been able to get into two big league games in that time, spending much of it on optional assignment. He has a 3.29 ERA in 38 1/3 Triple-A innings this year, with a 25.3% strikeout rate, 9.3% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate. He has less than two years of service time but will be out of options next year. The Marlins will place him on waivers in the coming days. If he were to clear, he would have the right to elect free agency by virtue of having a previous career outright.
Smeltzer, 27, signed a minor league deal with the Marlins in the offseason and has been on and off their roster all year. This is the fourth time the club has selected his contract this season, with each of the previous three instances eventually resulting in him being designated for assignment and accepting an outright assignment. He’s tossed 18 2/3 innings for the club this year with a 5.79 ERA, 18.1% strikeout rate, 4.8% walk rate and 32.8% ground ball rate.
Craig Mish and Jordan McPherson, both of the Miami Herald, relayed the details of these transactions prior to the official club announcement.
Yokohama DeNa Baystars To Post Shota Imanaga
The Yokohama DeNa Baystars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball are going to post left-hander Shota Imanaga this offseason, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The southpaw will be eligible to explore opportunities with clubs in Major League Baseball as a free agent, though any club that signs him would owe a posting fee to the Baystars.
Imanaga is a veteran in Japan, having just turned 30 years old on September 1. Over eight seasons, he has tossed 977 innings with a 3.18 earned run average while striking out 24.9% of batters faced and walking 6.9%. He’s been ever better this year, with a 2.72 ERA over 122 1/3 innings, along with a 29.1% strikeout rate and 3.9% walk rate. He also pitched for Japan in the World Baseball Classic earlier this year, allowing two earned runs over six innings.
Here at MLBTR, Imanaga has been featured on all four editions of our NPB Players To Watch series, coming in at #3 in the first edition but #2 on each subsequent update. As noted by MLBTR’s Dai Takegami Podziewski in the first of that series, Imanaga doesn’t have an overpowering fastball but finds success thanks to his command and gets strikeouts with his changeup, which is close to a splitter. He also has a cutter, a curveball and a slider. He signed with the U.S.-based agency Octagon to help talks toward a posting agreement last offseason.
Once Imanaga is formally posted, there will be a 30-day window where MLB clubs can negotiate with his representatives. If a deal is reached, the signing team will also owe money to the Baystars, with that amount being relative to the size of the contract given. Any big league team that signs him would owe the Baystars a fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. If he does not reach an agreement with an MLB team, he will return to the Baystars for 2024.
When he hits the market, Imanaga will add another interesting arm to a free agent class that is heavy on pitching. Another NPB star, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, is expected to be in the mix, alongside other pitchers like Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, Lucas Giolito, Jordan Montgomery and Sonny Gray, while pitchers like Eduardo Rodriguez and Marcus Stroman have opt-outs and could jump into the mix as well.
David Stearns Has Spoken With Mets, Astros About Potential Front Office Positions
For the past few years, speculation has abounded about the future of Brewers’ executive David Stearns. The Mets have made no secret of their affinity for Milwaukee’s longtime baseball operations leader.
New York’s interest hadn’t amounted to much to this point. Stearns has been under contract with Milwaukee, allowing Brewers’ owner Mark Attanasio to block the Mets from interviewing him over the 2021-22 offseason. Attanasio retained that freedom last winter, even as Stearns stepped down from running baseball operations and moved into an advisory role for longtime lieutenant Matt Arnold.
That’s no longer the case. Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of the Athletic report that Stearns’ contract allowed him to begin speaking with other teams about a possible front office job following the August 1 trade deadline. Rosenthal and Sammon report that Stearns has already been in contact with both the Mets and Astros (potentially among other teams).
There has been plenty of speculation around the industry about the Mets turning baseball operations over to Stearns once his contract with Milwaukee was finished. Not only is he clearly well-regarded by Mets’ owner Steve Cohen, the 38-year-old executive is a Manhattan native who worked in the Mets’ front office early in his career. While New York signed Billy Eppler to a four-year contract to take over as general manager in the 2021-22 offseason, Cohen has gone on record about a desire to add a baseball operations president to take over above Eppler (who would remain as GM).
It’s unclear how far along talks between Stearns and the New York organization have gotten. Andy Martino of SNY suggests (Twitter link) that discussions have already advanced further than the Mets’ talks with Theo Epstein had two offseasons ago, though he cautions that a deal coming together is not certain.
Perhaps that’s related to the possibility of Houston staying involved. Stearns worked as an assistant general manager for the Astros from 2013-15, the immediate precursor to taking over baseball operations in Milwaukee. He’s clearly familiar with Houston owner Jim Crane, who reportedly showed interest in bringing Stearns back last offseason (but denied in January that he’d requested formal permission from the Brewers for an interview).
The path to running baseball operations is clearer in Queens than in Houston, however. The Astros surprisingly moved on from James Click last offseason despite winning the World Series. They operated without a baseball operations leader until tabbing Braves’ vice president of scouting Dana Brown in late January. While Crane took an unconventional path with Click — with whom he’d reportedly had a frosty relationship despite the team’s success — there’s no indication the now first-place club is considering diminishing Brown’s responsibility after eight months on the job.
That all seems to point to the Mets as the most logical landing spot. Rosenthal and Sammon hear from individuals close to Stearns that he was “re-energized” by a season with less responsibility and is prepared to reassume a key role in baseball operations. (Stearns declined comment to The Athletic.) That’d be a change from last winter, when he said he was “looking forward to taking a deep breath, spending time with my family and exploring some other interests” when stepping down from the president role with Milwaukee.
Balelo: “Inevitable” That Ohtani Will Undergo Some Kind Of Elbow Procedure
Two weeks ago, the Angels announced that Shohei Ohtani was done pitching for the season after imaging revealed a tear in the UCL of his throwing elbow. Ohtani has yet to address that injury with that media, but his agent, CAA’s Nez Balelo, met with reporters this evening.
Balelo called it “inevitable” that Ohtani will need to undergo some type of procedure (relayed by Dylan Hernández of the Los Angeles Times). Whether that’ll be a full Tommy John surgery or something less invasive (e.g. an internal brace repair) is still to be determined.
According to Balelo, the tear is in a different area than the injury that necessitated Ohtani’s October 2018 Tommy John surgery. He called it a “best case scenario” given the situation (via Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times). Balelo made clear that Ohtani plans to be in the lineup as a designated hitter next season. He stressed that “there’s not a question in (Ohtani’s) mind” he’ll eventually be able to return to pitching as well, though that timetable remains uncertain pending their decision on the specific treatment necessary (relayed by Alden González of ESPN).
Shortly after the UCL tear was discovered, Halos’ general manager Perry Minasian told reporters that Ohtani and CAA declined the team’s offer to undergo imaging after the two-way star reported finger cramping in early August. While that could be interpreted as a shot at Ohtani or his representation, Balelo said they had no issue with the Angels going public with that information (via Sam Blum of the Athletic). He confirmed that Ohtani declined imaging at the time.
Ohtani has continued hitting since the injury, raking at a .300/.500/.500 clip in 43 plate appearances. It seems he’ll continue as the DH, at least until the plan to address his elbow is finalized. The AL MVP favorite is up to an astounding .304/.412/.654 batting line and is tied with Matt Olson for the major league lead with 44 home runs.
Even with uncertainty about his short-term outlook on the mound, Ohtani stands as the clear top player in the upcoming free agent class. If he prioritizes the overall guarantee, the 29-year-old seems likely to eclipse the $360MM record which Aaron Judge established last winter. Teams will obviously closely monitor his arm health to assess the likelihood he’ll be able to recapture his top-of-the-rotation form whenever he’s healthy enough to again begin throwing.
Julio Urías Arrested On Domestic Violence Charges
1:10pm: The Dodgers released the following statement: “We are aware of an incident involving Julio Urías. While we attempt to learn all the facts, he will not be traveling with the team. The organization has no further comment at this time.”
12:22pm: Dodgers left-hander Julio Urías was arrested and charged with felony domestic violence charges late last night, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The pitcher was booked late Sunday and released early this morning on $50K bond. Sam Blum of The Athletic reports that Urías was charged with “corporal injury on a spouse,” as relayed by his colleague Fabian Ardaya. Passan adds that Urías has a court date on September 27.
Urías, 27, has been pitching for the Dodgers since debuting in 2016. In 2019, he was arrested after reportedly shoving a female companion to the ground. He was placed on administrative leave at that time as the league began an investigation into the matter. The Los Angeles city attorney ultimately deferred prosecution in that matter, conditional on Urías completing a 52-week domestic violence counseling program, among other criteria. Under the joint domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse policy agreed to by Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association, the league can impose discipline even in the absence of charges and Urías ultimately received a 20-game suspension.
The details of this latest incident aren’t clear at the moment, though it seems fair to expect a similar process to take place soon. Urías will likely be placed on administrative leave again as the league opens an investigation into this arrest. Administrative leave is not considered punitive and players continue to be paid and accrue service time while on leave, though both can be rescinded in the event of an eventual suspension. There’s no set length for administrative leave, which can last as long as an investigation into a matter takes.
Urías is slated for free agency at season’s end.
Angels Remain Narrowly Above Luxury Tax Threshold
The Angels’ competitive balance tax number still sits narrowly above the $233MM base threshold, reports Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. Los Angeles attempted to shed enough salary via waivers this week to limbo below that number but was unsuccessful.
On Tuesday, the Angels placed six players on waivers. Five of them — Lucas Giolito, Hunter Renfroe, Dominic Leone, Reynaldo López and Matt Moore — were claimed, with the other teams absorbing their salaries. Outfielder Randal Grichuk cleared waivers, however, as no team wanted to take what remained of the $1.7MM that the Halos had assumed on Grichuk’s contract when acquiring him from Colorado.
That’ll apparently be the difference, as Fletcher adds that the Halos would’ve indeed gotten under the threshold had Grichuk been claimed. The Angels could theoretically still try to cut some spending by placing someone else on waivers. Players claimed after August 31 wouldn’t be eligible for postseason work with an acquiring team, but the Halos have more controllable players making above-minimum salaries (e.g. Luis Rengifo or Carlos Estévez) who’d likely be claimed with an eye towards next season if the Angels simply wanted to clear them off the books.
It doesn’t seem that’s the plan though. Minasian told Fletcher he doesn’t believe that paying the CBT this year will affect the club’s budget during the upcoming offseason. The team will barely pay any extra money this year, as they’ll only be taxed at a 20% rate on the minimal amount on which they surpassed the threshold. Nevertheless, it’ll have an impact in a few ways.
Most notably, it subjects the organization to higher fees in the event they exceed the threshold in consecutive seasons. Teams that pay the tax for a second straight year are charged a 30% fee (higher than the 20% standard rate) on their first $20MM of overages the following season. The fees continue to escalate for clubs that exceed the tax for a third straight year and/or surpass the threshold by upwards of $20MM.
CBT payors also receive reduced compensation for losing qualified free agents. The Angels are going to make a qualifying offer to Shohei Ohtani, which he’ll decline. If he subsequently signs elsewhere, the Halos would receive a compensation pick after the fourth round in the 2024 draft. That’s typically around the 140th overall selection. Had the Angels gotten under the threshold, the compensatory pick would’ve landed between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round — approximately 70th overall.
The Angels will hope that latter point is irrelevant because they re-sign Ohtani. (None of their other impending free agents are candidates for the QO.) That won’t be known until the offseason, though an Ohtani deal would likely mean they’re nearing luxury tax territory yet again. Roster Resource projects the Halos’ 2024 CBT number around $131MM. That’s well shy of next season’s $237MM base threshold, but it doesn’t include arbitration estimates. Ohtani’s contract alone figures to tack on at least $40-45MM and could well pay north of $50MM per season. The Angels would obviously need to supplement the roster around Ohtani if they retain him, likely by adding infield depth, at least one starting pitcher and multiple bullpen arms.