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Padres Extend Manny Machado Through 2033

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Feb. 28: The Padres have announced Machado’s new 11-year contract. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets that Machado will receive a $45MM signing bonus that’ll be spread out over the 11-year duration of the contract. He’ll be paid $13MM in each of the next three seasons, $21MM in 2026 and then $35MM per season from 2027-33.

In the short term, the backloaded nature of the contract and the distributed/deferred nature of the signing bonus will provide San Diego with some additional payroll flexibility, though the year-to-year structure of the deal doesn’t impact the luxury tax hit, which is still purely based on the contract’s average annual value. That said, the lower salaries up front will dovetail both with Juan Soto’s remaining club control (through 2024) and with the eventual decrease in salary on Yu Darvish’s more frontloaded extension.

Feb. 26: Manny Machado isn’t going anywhere. The star third baseman was planning to opt out of his contract after the season but will instead stick around, as Machado and the Padres are reportedly finalizing a new 11-year, $350MM contract. The extension begins this year and will run through the 2033 campaign, which will be Machado’s age-40 season. He gets full no-trade protection and the deal does not contain any opt-outs. Since Machado had six years and $180MM remaining on his previous deal, this new agreement will add five years and $170MM in new money for the MVP Sports Group client.

Machado, 30, initially signed a 10-year, $300MM deal with the Padres going into 2019, with that deal affording him the ability to opt-out after five years. That opt-out was looming at the end of the upcoming season and multiple factors made it seem like an easy decision for Machado. For one thing, he has continued to produce at an elite level, including a 2022 season that was perhaps his best yet. He hit 32 home runs and stole nine bases last year, finishing the season with a .298/.366/.531 batting line. His 152 wRC+ indicates he was 52% better than the league average hitter. He was also graded as eight Outs Above Average at third base, with his overall contributions leading to a tally of 7.4 wins above replacement per the calculations of FanGraphs.

In addition to that, the market for elite players has been quite strong this winter, with many players going deep into nine-figure territory. Aaron Judge got a $360MM guarantee, Trea Turner got $300MM, Xander Bogaerts $280MM, Dansby Swanson $177MM, Carlos Rodón $162MM, Jacob deGrom $185MM and Brandon Nimmo $162MM. Since Machado was going to have five years and $150MM remaining on his deal at the end of this year, taking the opt-out was the clear choice from a financial perspective and Machado was quite open about his plans to take that path.

It was reported earlier this month that the Padres were planning to get an extension done with Machado to prevent him from opting out, though the talks seemed to be in jeopardy as recently as a week ago. It was reported at that time that Machado’s camp had set a February 16 deadline for negotiations, after which point he would prefer to put contract talks aside to focus on baseball. The club apparently offered to add five years and $105MM to his deal, which was not enough to get pen on paper. With the deadline having passed, it seemed possible that the season would begin with the uncertainty lingering, though reports on Friday indicated that the discussions were continuing. It seems as though the Friars bumped up their offer enough to get Machado’s reps back to the table and hammered out a deal.

This will add another hefty salary to the long-term books of a San Diego club that has become surprisingly aggressive in recent years. They had never been among the game’s biggest spenders but have changed that reputation recently. In addition to Machado’s contract, they also gave out big deals to Eric Hosmer, Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and others. The exact breakdown of Machado’s deal isn’t yet known, but these hefty and lengthy deals mean that the club will have something in the vicinity of $100MM on the books for 2028 already.

That increased spending has launched the club into luxury tax territory, having paid the competitive balance tax in each of the past two seasons. They are sure to do so again here in 2023, having been hovering around the third tier of $273MM in recent weeks. Recent reporting indicated that the club was narrowly below that line but it’s possible this deal might nudge them over for now. The CBT uses a deal’s average annual value rather than the salary in a given year, meaning we can figure Machado’s tax hit without knowing the full breakdown of the new deal. His previous deal came with a $30MM hit but this new one has an AAV of $31.81MM. Roster Resource now calculates the club’s tax number at $273.3MM. Those calculations are unofficial but given the previous reports about how close the club was to the line, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they were indeed a hair over now.

A club’s CBT status isn’t calculated until the end of the season, but given that the Padres are clearly in win-now mode, they will likely be in pursuit of upgrades at the trade deadline this summer. That means they are more likely to see their CBT number increase rather than decrease throughout the season. If they indeed finish up on the north side of that $273MM line, they will face increased rates of taxation but will also see their top pick in the 2024 draft pushed back by ten spots. It seems that owner Peter Seidler is more than willing to pay those penalties as part of making the Padres a competitive club both now and into the future.

For the any clubs that had hopes of making a run at Machado next winter, they will have to come up with other plans for next winter. Machado will no longer be a part of the 2023-2024 free agent class, which will be headlined by Shohei Ohtani and will also feature players like Aaron Nola, Julio Urías and Matt Chapman. For the Padres, they won’t have to worry about filling a vacancy at third base, with Machado now locked in for next season and another decade after that.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the sides were finalizing a new 11-year deal worth $350MM. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported that the deal begins in 2023. Dennis Lin and Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic first reported that there are no opt-outs and that Machado has full no-trade protection (Twitter links).

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Tyler Glasnow Out Six To Eight Weeks With Oblique Strain

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10:40am: The Rays announced that Glasnow has been diagnosed with a Grade 2 strain of his left oblique. The team estimates a timeline of six to eight weeks before he’s ready to return to a game setting.

9:12am: Rays right-hander Tyler Glasnow is expected to miss the beginning of the regular season due to an oblique injury, manager Kevin Cash tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link). “I would book that right now,” Cash said when asked about the likelihood of Glasnow missing time to begin the year. Glasnow underwent an MRI yesterday, though the team has not yet provided a formal diagnosis or publicly disclosed a timeline for his return.

If there’s a silver lining for the Rays, it’s that the injury is unrelated to Glasnow’s surgically repaired right elbow. The 29-year-old Glasnow underwent Tommy John surgery in 2021 and was limited to just 6 2/3 regular season frames last year — plus another five dominant innings in the ALDS. Given that minimal workload, it’s likely that the Rays would’ve kept a watchful eye on Glasnow’s innings count in 2023 anyhow. In some respects, the oblique injury provides a more organic means of keeping that workload on the more conservative side as he builds toward what the team surely hopes will be a full slate of starts in the 2024 season.

Even with Glasnow on the shelf, the rotation will remain a strong point for the Rays, who enjoyed a breakout 2022 showing from Shane McClanahan. The 25-year-old lefty made his first All-Star team and was squarely in the American League Cy Young mix for most of the season before a shoulder injury late in the year limited his innings and perhaps diminished his results over his final few outings. Now healthy, McClanahan is a safe bet to make the Rays’ Opening Day start.

Following him in the rotation will be recently extended lefty Jeffrey Springs, right-hander Drew Rasmussen and offseason acquisition Zach Eflin, who inked the largest free-agent contract the Rays have ever given out (a still-modest three years and $40MM). The fifth spot in the rotation will be somewhat up for grabs. Touted young righty Shane Baz won’t factor into that mix, as he’s expected to miss all of the 2023 season recovering from Tommy John surgery, but the Rays still have Luis Patino, Yonny Chirinos, Josh Fleming and top prospect Taj Bradley as names to consider.

Of course, since we’re talking about the Rays, there’s no guarantee they’ll even set a fifth starter. Many clubs can skip the fifth spot in the rotation early in the season due to the number of off-days baked into the calendar, and even failing that, the Rays are the team that pioneered the now-common usage of openers and bullpen games. It wouldn’t be at all surprising to see Tampa Bay go back to that well. Lefty reliever Jalen Beeks, notably, “started” seven games for the Rays in 2022 but never pitched beyond two innings or faced more than ten batters in any of those appearances. He’d likely be the favorite for such a role to begin the 2023 campaign as well, should the Rays prefer to go that route.

Turning back to Glasnow, he’s earning a $5.35MM salary in the 2023 season, which would’ve been his final year of club control before free agency were it not for an extension he inked last summer. It was an odd contract that lacked precedent, as the two parties agreed to tack just one year at a premium $25MM rate, pushing back Glasnow’s arrival on the open market by one year.

Joe Musgrove Suffers Fractured Toe

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10:14am: Padres manager Bob Melvin said Musgrove won’t be cleared to resume throwing for a “minimum” of two weeks (Twitter link via MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell), though it’s possible he’s sidelined longer than that. Even if it’s a best-case scenario and Musgrove is throwing again in two weeks’ time, he’d have just 16 days to build up before Opening Day. The team hasn’t directly said as much, but Melvin’s timeline rather clearly puts Opening Day in jeopardy for Musgrove.

9:06am: Padres right-hander Joe Musgrove sustained a broken big toe in his left foot during a weight room accident yesterday, the team announced to reporters this morning (Twitter link via Dennis Lin of The Athletic). The Padres have not yet revealed a timeline for Musgrove’s return.

The severity of the fracture and the recommended treatment aren’t yet clear, though it seems fair to presume that Musgrove will be sidelined for a meaningful period of time. Fractures of this nature can potentially require a walking boot, and even absent that, a broken big toe in a pitcher’s landing foot is problematic for obvious reasons.

It’s a dismal bit of injury luck for both pitcher and team, as the 30-year-old Musgrove is headed into the first season of a five-year, $100MM contract extension signed last July. He’s fresh off an All-Star season that saw him pitch to a sterling 2.93 ERA in 181 innings, fanning a strong 24.9% of hitters against a similarly impressive 5.7% walk rate along the way. Musgrove also ranked among the best in the league in terms of suppressing hard contact, landing in the 90th percentile of MLB pitchers with an 86.4 mph average exit velocity and in the 88th percentile with just a 32.4% hard-hit rate.

The typically durable Musgrove has made at least 30 starts and tallied at least 170 innings pitched in each of the past three 162-game seasons. Over the past four seasons, he’s only been placed on the injured twice — missing about three weeks in 2020 due to triceps inflammation in addition to about a week on the Covid-related injured list this past season.

Assuming Musgrove is indeed unavailable to begin the 2023 season, newly extended righty Yu Darvish would likely be in line for the Opening Day nod for San Diego. Darvish will be followed by lefty Blake Snell, recently signed right-hander Michael Wacha and relievers-turned-starters Nick Martinez and Seth Lugo. The recent signing of Wacha now looks all the more critical for the Friars, who’d otherwise have been left with just two established big league starters in the wake of this Musgrove injury.

San Diego has been angling for a six-man rotation to begin he season, in part to help manage the workload of Martinez and Lugo, who pitched just 106 1/3 innings and 65 innings in 2022, respectively. If the plan is still to trot out a six-man unit, that could open the door for a younger arm like Adrian Morejon, Jay Groome, Ryan Weathers, Reiss Knehr or Pedro Avila to get some starts early in the season. Alternatively, the Padres have notable veterans like Julio Teheran, Wilmer Font and Aaron Brooks in camp as non-roster invitees. Cole Hamels also inked a minor league pact as part of a comeback bid, but he’ll still be building up in extended spring training when the regular season opens.

Blue Jays Hire James Click As Vice President Of Baseball Strategy

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The Blue Jays announced Monday morning that former Astros general manager James Click has been hired as their new vice president of baseball strategy.

In Click’s new role, he’ll work “closely with general manager Ross Atkins and department heads on strategic planning, decision making, and evaluation.” Click will also “work across both professional and amateur levels to identify best practices, develop plans, and implement strategies.”

The Astros rather surprisingly moved on from Click just weeks after winning the 2022 World Series. Reports of mounting friction between Click and team owner Jim Crane began to surface late in the 2022 regular season, and upon conclusion of the postseason, Crane put forth a one-year extension offer that was generally viewed as a token offer that never stood a chance of being accepted. Houston spent most of the offseason operating without a general manager before hiring now-former Braves vice president of scouting Dana Brown to fill that vacancy in January.

There’s been little doubt that Click would land on his feet with another club. His three-year stint as the general manager in Houston resulted in three playoff berths, after all, two of which (2021-22) saw the ’Stros take home the American League pennant. While it’s only fair to acknowledge that the prior front office regime, headed by Jeff Luhnow, laid the groundwork for a good deal of that success with acquisitions/signings of stars like Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and others, Click oversaw trades acquiring Kendall Graveman and Rafael Montero, signed free agents like Hector Neris and Ryne Stanek, and was in the GM seat for extensions of both Ryan Pressly and Alvarez.

Prior to his that three-year run with Houston, Click spent 15 years in the Rays organization. The Yale graduate first joined Tampa Bay as a baseball operations coordinator back in 2006 and slowly made his way up the organizational ladder, spending time with most departments along the way before eventually being tapped the Rays’ vice president of baseball operations in 2017. He held that post for three years before being hired away by Houston in the fallout from MLB’s investigation into the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal.

The Blue Jays didn’t specify a length on Click’s contract, though it stands to reason that regardless of contract length, he’ll again emerge as a candidate for teams seeking either a general manager or president of baseball operations in the future. It’s a relatively similar situation to the one that brought Ben Cherington to the Jays for a few years. Cherington, the former Red Sox GM, was hired as a vice president of baseball operations in Toronto back in 2016, less than a year removed from being ousted in Boston. He held that post through the fall of 2019, when the Pirates hired Cherington as their new general manager.

Any future GM/president appointments for Click will obviously depend on his own appetite for returning to a position with baseball autonomy and the slate of candidates he finds himself interviewing against, but at the very least there will surely be interest in a 45-year-old exec with 15 years of experience in one of the game’s model baseball ops departments (Tampa Bay) and a three-year run in Houston that included three playoff berths, two World Series appearances and a World Series championship.

Padres, Manny Machado Still Discussing Extension

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The Padres and Manny Machado remain in discussions regarding a potential long-term contract extension, reports Dennis Lin of the Athletic. There’s no indication an agreement is likely, through it comes as something of a surprise to hear conversations are still ongoing.

Machado implied last week he’d cut talks off when the sides hadn’t agreed to a deal by February 16, a self-imposed deadline representing the outset of Spring Training. At the time, the NL MVP runner-up said he “just wanted to focus on baseball” and “didn’t want to really continue talking about contracts or the business side of things” once exhibition play got underway.

The star third baseman wasn’t as firm when chatting with Lin about the situation today. “Deadlines are deadlines but they know where I stand,” Machado said. “The opportunity will arise if it comes to that. You know, nothing’s out of question. Obviously, they know how much San Diego means to me and what I want to be here. At the end of the day, they knew exactly where I was when that deadline was set. And we’ll see what happens. Our main focus right now is playing baseball. We’ll see.”

Machado is entering the fifth season of the ten-year free agent deal he signed over the 2018-19 offseason. The contract affords him the chance to opt out of the final five years and $150MM at the end of the 2023 campaign. Machado has already confirmed he’s planning to test the market at the end of the year. That declaration came as no surprise, as he’d be in position to handily beat a $150MM guarantee on the open market if he posted a season at similar levels to his last three years.

A new agreement with the Padres could make that a moot point. San Diego owner Peter Seidler told reporters this week re-signing Machado was his “top priority” (relayed by 97.3 FM The Fan). That obviously could take place after the season if/when Machado tests the market, but Lin’s report again raises the possibility of a deal coming together prior to Opening Day.

Financial terms presently under consideration aren’t known. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported last week the club had offered an additional $105MM over five seasons on top of his existing deal, which would’ve brought their outstanding commitment to $255MM between 2023-32.

Seidler has signed off a rapid spending hike over the past few seasons. The Friars trail only the Mets and Yankees in projected 2023 payroll. They signed Xander Bogaerts to an 11-year, $280MM free agent pact this offseason and have already worked out a five-year extension with right-hander Yu Darvish this spring. Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., Darvish and Joe Musgrove are all counting for more than $15MM annually for the foreseeable future.

That hasn’t deterred Seidler, president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, and their staff from continuing to pursue star talent. The Friars took swings at Trea Turner and Aaron Judge before landing Bogaerts and clearly are hopeful of retaining Machado. They’re also down to two years of arbitration control with Juan Soto, who could be in position for one of the largest deals in MLB history when he hits free agency over the 2024-25 offseason.

Machado owns a .280/.352/.504 line in just under 2200 plate appearances as a Padre. He’s coming off perhaps the best season of his career, one in which he posted a .298/.366/.531 slash with 32 home runs to earn his sixth All-Star nod. Machado typically pairs that middle-of-the-order offense with excellent defensive marks at third base. He’s headed into his age-30 season, so any new deal (either an extension or free agent contract) would figure to come into play for his age-31 campaign and beyond.

Twins Sign Donovan Solano

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12:16pm: The Twins formally announced the signing. Right-hander Chris Paddack, who’s recovering from Tommy John surgery performed last May, was placed on the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

Feb. 23, 8:40am: The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that Solano’s deal guarantees him $2MM, with up to $250K in additional incentives available.

Feb. 21: The Twins are in agreement with infielder Donovan Solano on a one-year, major league contract, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The deal is pending a physical and the financial terms are not yet publicly known.

Solano, 35, has had a unique journey in his baseball career. He played in the big leagues from 2012 to 2016 but didn’t impress much and wound up mired in the minors for two years after that. He was able to claw his way back to the show and has been a solid major league player over the past few years. With the Giants from 2019 to 2021, he hit .308/.354/.435, with his wRC+ of 113 indicating he was 13% better than the league average hitter in that time.

He signed with the Reds last year and took a bit of a step back at the plate, finishing the season with a .284/.339/.385 line and a 98 wRC+. Despite the slight drop, he was still a useful piece for the Reds, since he was able to spend significant time at the three non-shortstop infield positions and was generally considered around average at them, though his work at third was graded the weakest and his work at first the strongest.

Solano could be a good fit for a platoon role given his right-handed bat has fared well against left-handed pitchers, something that MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently highlighted. Solano has hit .289/.342/.397 against righties over the past four seasons but has crushed lefties to a .321/.363/.461 line. That split largely continued last year, even though he was less productive overall. He hit .301/.348/.422 with the platoon advantage but .277/.335/.369 without it.

For the Twins, they’ve seen some notable changes to their infield mix this offseason, though Carlos Correa and Jorge Polanco should still be in the middle. Gio Urshela was traded to the Angels, freeing up the hot corner for José Miranda after he saw significant time at first last year. Luis Arraez was traded to the Marlins while Miguel Sanó had his option declined. All of that has left left-hander Alex Kirilloff potentially the top option at first base. Since Solano fared well at first last year, he could perhaps platoon with Kirilloff some. In addition to the normal platoon strategy, it might make sense to monitor Kirilloff’s workload given his nagging wrist injuries over the past few years.

The club also has a number of left-handed hitters in its outfield mix. Right-hander Byron Buxton will be in center, but the options for the corners include lefties Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, Nick Gordon, Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner and Kirilloff. The club doesn’t have a strict designated hitter and will likely be rotating those players through that slot, with Solano potentially spelling them against lefties from time to time as well. Solano’s ability to play second could also allow him to give Polanco the occasional day off, though the club also has Kyle Farmer and Gordon available for that duty as well.

It’s unknown what kind of salary Solano will earn, but it’s unlikely to be a huge investment for this move that will add some depth and versatility to the team. They have a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move, though that will likely be moving one of Chris Paddack or Royce Lewis to the 60-day injured list, since both are expected to be out of action until at least midseason.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Brewers, Luke Voit Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Brewers have agreed to a minor league contract with free agent first baseman/designated hitter Luke Voit, reports Adam McCalvy of MLB.com (Twitter link). Voit, a client of Excel Sports, will be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee.

For two-plus seasons, Voit was an absolute powerhouse in the middle of the Yankees’ lineup, batting a combined .279/.372/.543 with 57 home runs, 31 doubles and an 11.5% walk rate (albeit against a more troublesome 26.3% strikeout rate). That production came over the life of 892 plate appearances and included an MLB-best 22 home runs during the shortened 2020 campaign.

The past two years, however, have been nightmarish for the slugger — in no small part due to health troubles. Voit began the 2021 campaign on the injured last after suffering a torn meniscus in his left knee during spring training. That injury required surgery and kept him out of action into mid-May, but his return proved short lived. Just two weeks after returning to the field, Voit sustained a Grade 2 oblique strain.

While even Grade 1 oblique strains can often lead to month-long absences, Voit was still back on the field less than one month later. This return from the IL, in similar fashion, was brief in nature. Three weeks after being activated, Voit was back on the shelf due to inflammation and discomfort in his surgically repaired left knee. The Yankees shopped and nearly traded Voit at the 2021 trade deadline, but he was back on the active roster from Aug. 8 until Sept. 30 — when pain in that left knee again sent him to the injured list, formally ending his season. He closed out that year with a career-worst .226/.308/.402 batting line.

The Yankees traded Voit to the Padres just before Opening Day 2022, receiving righty Justin Lange in the swap. Voit hit .225/.317/.416 in 344 plate appearances with the Padres before being traded to the Nationals in the Juan Soto blockbuster. With Washington, Voit’s production took a step back, evidenced by a .228/.295/.381 slash in his two months down the stretch. Washington non-tendered him following the season, preferring not to offer him a raise on last year’s $5.45MM salary.

With the Brewers, Voit will look to get back on track in a more hitter-friendly setting than he played in during the 2022 season — if, of course, he makes the club. The Brewers already have Rowdy Tellez at first base, and outfielder Jesse Winker could be in line for DH reps, depending on how the rest of the outfield mix plays out. Christian Yelich is entrenched in left field (and in search of his own rebound), while center field and right field currently look as though they’ll be manned by Garrett Mitchell and Tyrone Taylor.

On the surface, Voit’s right-handed bat looks like a natural pairing for either Tellez or Winker in a platoon capacity, but that’s not necessarily the case. In his career, Voit’s production against left-handed opponents (.236/.329/.439) is inferior to his production against righties (.262/.347/.491). He’d still be an upgrade over either Tellez or Winker against southpaws, but using him primarily against lefties wouldn’t necessarily maximize his skill set.

For Voit to find success in Milwaukee, he’ll first and foremost need to pare back a strikeout rate that has spiraled in the wrong direction since that injury-ruined 2021 season. Over the past two seasons, Voit has fanned in 31.3% of his plate appearances — a far cry from the 26.3% clip at which he punched out during his Yankees peak and an even farther cry from his career-best 23.1% during that standout 2020 campaign. Voit still makes hard contact at a very strong clip (44.6% over the past two seasons, per Statcast) and barrels the ball at an elite rate (15%) — but that ability for loud contact has been undercut by his uptick in whiffing altogether.

If Voit makes the club and is able to return to form, he’d be a multi-year option for the Brewers, as he’s just shy of five years of Major League service time. As such, he’d be controllable one more year via arbitration. That’s putting the cart before the horse, but it’s a nice potential longer-term benefit if he can engineer a rebound with the Brew Crew.

Cubs Sign Michael Fulmer

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Feb. 20: The Cubs have formally announced the signing. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster, right-hander Codi Heuer was placed on the 60-day injured list. Heuer is recovering from Tommy John surgery

Feb. 15: Fulmer and the Cubs agreed to a one-year, $4MM contract tweets Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic.

Feb. 10: The Cubs and free-agent righty Michael Fulmer are in agreement on a contract, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The deal is pending a physical. Fulmer is represented by BBI Sports Group.

In Fulmer, the Cubs are landing one of the few remaining quality relievers on the market. The 2016 American League Rookie of the Year broke into the Majors as a starter and thrived in that role before injuries — namely Tommy John surgery and a separate ulnar nerve transposition procedure — derailed his career. He returned to full strength in 2021 however, and after a few shaky starts early in the season, found a home in the Detroit bullpen.

From that point through the 2022 trade deadline, Fulmer was a rock-solid setup man and closer for a sub-.500 Tigers team. Detroit flipped him to the Twins prior to the 2022 trade deadline, receiving minor league pitcher Sawyer Gipson-Long in return. Fulmer continued his smooth transition to the bullpen with a nice showing in Minnesota down the stretch, and he now touts a 2.90 ERA, 23.8% strikeout rate, 8.5% walk rate, 39.2% grounder rate and 0.64 HR/9 mark in 111 2/3 innings since moving to a relief role on a full-time basis.

Fulmer had some command issues in the first half of the 2022 season, but those were largely ironed out following his trade to Minnesota, with whom he walked just 7.5% of the batters he faced. There are at least a handful of red flags on his 2022 season beyond the brief uptick in walks, however.

For instance, the 95.6 mph Fulmer averaged on his heater in 2021 dipped to 94.3 mph in 2022, while his 24.6% strikeout rate fell to 22.1% (and just 20.6% after the trade). The right-hander also went from one of the game’s best at managing hard contact (87th percentile average exit velocity, 76th percentile hard-hit rate) to just slightly above-average in 2022 (55th percentile exit velocity, 61st percentile hard-hit rate). Additionally, his strong 34.6% opponents’ chase rate on pitches off the plate fell to 31.2% in 2022 — a career-low mark in a full 162-game season.

The extent to which factors like that combined to slow Fulmer’s market can’t be fully known, but it’s still a bit of a surprise that it took until the week before spring training for him to reach a deal. While financial terms of his contract haven’t yet come to light, the Cubs tend to wait out the market and scoop up veteran relievers at relatively bargain rates. Chicago hasn’t inked a reliever to a multi-year deal or even topped a $5MM guarantee for a reliever since signing Craig Kimbrel four years ago.

If that trend indeed continues, it could well prove to be a bargain for them. Fulmer isn’t a dominant, overpowering bullpen anchor, but he’s been a quality setup man with slightly above-average ability to miss bats, solid command and a knack for avoiding hard contact over the past two seasons. If his 2023 results fall in line anywhere between his 2021 and 2022 output, it’ll be a nice upgrade to a Cubs bullpen that is lacking in certainty.

Prior to the agreement with Fulmer, righties Brad Boxberger and Rowan Wick were the only relievers in the Chicago bullpen with even three years of Major League service time. The Cubs don’t have a set closer, so Fulmer figures to join Boxberger, Brandon Hughes and perhaps former top prospect Adbert Alzolay — who was excellent in a small sample of bullpen work last year — in competing for work in the ninth inning.

White Sox Sign Elvis Andrus

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Feb. 20: The White Sox have announced the signing and confirmed the one-year, $3MM terms of the deal.

Feb. 19: The White Sox have signed infielder Elvis Andrus to a one-year contract, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link).  The contract will become official when Andrus passes a physical, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds that Andrus will earn a $3MM salary.  Andrus is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Andrus returns to the south side of Chicago after hitting .271/.309/.464 over 191 plate appearances with the White Sox last season.  Released by the A’s in August, the Sox quickly inked Andrus as a shortstop replacement for Tim Anderson, who ended up missing the rest of the season due to a torn hand ligament.  While only over a small sample size, Andrus’ performance with the Sox marked his best offensive surge in years, as the veteran had struggled at the plate during the end of his tenure with the Rangers and for much of his two seasons in Oakland.

With Anderson now back and healthy, the White Sox will use Andrus as their regular second baseman.  This is the first position change of Andrus’ 14-year MLB career, as he has exclusively played shortstop (with a handful of DH games) over his 1947 Major League games.  Andrus has made exactly one professional appearance as a second baseman, and it happened way back in his first pro season of 2005 with the Braves’ rookie ball affiliate.

Lack of experience notwithstanding, there probably isn’t much doubt that Andrus can handle the new position, given that he was still posting quality defensive numbers (as per the UZR/150 and Outs Above Average metrics) as a shortstop as recently as 2022.  It is certainly possible that Andrus’ glovework will be even better at an ostensibly easier position, which gives the White Sox a defensive boost heading into a season with new anti-shift rules coming into play.

The signing addresses a problem position for the Sox that has lingered all offseason.  Chicago signed Hanser Alberto, Erik Gonzalez, and Nate Mondou to minor league contracts, yet neither represented any real upgrade to a second base position that generated only 0.3 bWAR for the White Sox over the entire 2022 season.  With Andrus now in the fold, longtime utilityman Leury Garcia can now used in his usual multi-position role, and more inexperienced options like Romy Gonzalez and Lenyn Sosa can now compete for bench jobs or get more seasoning in the minor leagues.

The $3MM outlay for Andrus bumps Chicago’s payroll to roughly $189.1MM, as per Roster Resource.  This is a little less than the approximately $193MM the White Sox spent last season, though GM Rick Hahn indicated back in November that the club was planning to have around the same payroll as it did in 2022.  Some reports suggested that the Sox would even try to cut payroll down to around $180MM, though that plan may have been abandoned in light of rising free agent costs and a relative lack of league-wide action on the trade market.  If the Sox were in contention at midseason, owner Jerry Reinsdorf could possibly okay another payroll bump for a trade deadline addition, even if it’s probably safe to assume that a real spending splurge isn’t coming.

The Angels and Red Sox were the only teams publicly known to have interest in Andrus this winter, with Boston emerging in the wake of Trevor Story’s internal-brace surgery on his right elbow.  There was obviously a lot of action on the shortstop market this offseason, but once the big names of Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, and Dansby Swanson all signed their contracts, remaining teams with shortstop needs seemed more willing to test out internal options rather than pursue a veteran like Andrus.  Becoming a second baseman might reflect the reality of the market for Andrus, or he might’ve just preferred an everyday role at a new position (and in a familiar environment) rather than remain a shortstop on a new team, but in more of a part-time capacity.

Manny Machado Set Feb 16 Deadline For Padres Extension Talks; Team Offered Further Five-Years, $105MM

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Manny Machado set the Padres a deadline of February 16 to offer him an extension that would’ve meant he avoided free agency at the end of the 2023 season, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. According to Acee, the Padres made just one offer to Machado two days prior to his deadline, offering to tack on an extra five-years and $105MM to his current deal. That would’ve taken their total commitment to Machado to 15-years, $405MM. Machado is planning to opt out of his contract at the end of the season, and combining the remaining value of Machado’s contract (five-years, $150MM from 2024-28) with this new offer would’ve equated to a ten-year, $255MM deal.

According to Acee’s report, Machado confirmed in a brief interview that in early December he set the Padres a deadline of February 16  because “I just wanted to focus on baseball. So once the season started, I didn’t want to really continue talking about contracts or the business side of things. I just want to focus on my team and the guys in here and what our goal is — to win a championship. So (Thursday) was our deadline, and after that it was just focus on baseball, going out there and winning.” Machado’s interview also confirmed that he received just the one offer from San Diego, but did not confirm the terms reported.

Machado’s current ten-year, $300MM deal runs through the 2028 season, but contains a player opt out at the end of 2023. Machado confirmed just yesterday his intentions to exercise that clause and opt out of the remaining five-years, $150MM on his deal. That should come as no surprise, as Machado has been one of the game’s best players in recent seasons and at 30 is both young enough and good enough to earn a long term deal far surpassing what was remaining on his current contract.

While his 2023 season will naturally play a significant part in Machado’s market next winter, there certainly seems a strong case for him to pick up a bigger deal than the ten-year, $255MM deal the Padres have effectively offered him here. Machado’s been worth 11.7 fWAR over the past two seasons and has four career 6+ fWAR seasons. Compare that to his new team mate Xander Bogaerts, who inked an 11-year, $280MM deal with San Diego this winter. Bogaerts is a fine player, but he’s been worth 10.5 fWAR over the past two seasons and 2022 was his lone 6+ fWAR season. Of course, fWAR is not the determining factor in contract negotiations, but it serves as a relevant data point to consider why Machado might see himself as worth more on the open market than ten-years, $255MM.

Machado’s resume to date is nothing short of stellar. An MVP runner up in 2022, Machado has six All Star appearances, five top-five MVP finishes, two Gold Gloves and a Silver Slugger to his name thus far. He’s a threat on both sides of the ball, as evidenced by his career 124 wRC+ and 97 Defensive Runs Saved at third base.

With Machado’s deadline now passed, it appears likelier than ever that he’ll hit the open market at the end of the season. As the likely top free agent not named Shohei Ohtani next winter, Machado seems a good chance to become the first ever player to sign multiple $300MM contracts in his career.

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