Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel No Longer Attached To Draft Pick Compensation
It is officially draft day in Major League Baseball, and as the clock has struck midnight on the east coast, it also means that teams can sign free agents who rejected the qualifying offer without having to surrender the draft pick compensation usually attached to QO picks. Thus, after months of speculation, Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel have been one of their chief obstacles to a new contract fall by the wayside.
While several players have seen their free agent markets impacted by the qualifying offer over the QO’s seven offseasons of existence, Keuchel and Kimbrel join Kendrys Morales as the only players to escape the qualifying offer’s draft penalties by simply waiting out the draft itself to sign new contracts. Stephen Drew‘s free agent visit also extended into the 2014 season, though he ultimately re-signed with the Red Sox before the draft.
Of course, waiting this long to sign has the obvious drawback of inactivity. The two pitchers have now given up over two months of their careers and a proper Spring Training camp, though Keuchel and Kimbrel have both been working in preparation to eventually get on the field, Keuchel and Kimbrel will have to ramp up their activity without the benefit of a proper Spring Training camp. According to Keuchel’s agent Scott Boras, the southpaw will be ready to join his new team about a week after signing, which seems like a somewhat optimistic projection. It’s worth noting that Morales and Drew both struggled badly in their abbreviated 2014 seasons, and we’ve seen several other examples (i.e. Greg Holland last season) of how players with QO-induced extended layoffs can struggle without the benefit of a proper offseason.
As a reminder, here is what each team would have had to give up in terms of compensation had they signed Keuchel or Kimbrel at any point in the last seven months. The large majority of teams would have had to give up just one draft selection (either their second-highest or third-highest pick), and the 12 clubs who didn’t exceed the luxury tax or receive revenue-sharing payments would have also had to surrender $500K in international bonus pool money. The Nationals and Red Sox were the only two teams who did surpass the luxury tax threshold in 2018, and thus would have had to give up their second- and fifth-highest picks plus $1MM in international bonus pool money. (This only applies to Boston in regards to Keuchel, as the Sox obviously could have re-signed Kimbrel with no penalty since he was most recently on their team.)
The Red Sox and Astros are further impacted, as the two clubs will now no longer receive the extra picks that would have been owed to them had Kimbrel and Keuchel indeed signed elsewhere. Since they paid into the luxury tax, the Red Sox would have only received a pick between the fourth and fifth rounds, while Houston would have received a pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round. While the current draft order would have been altered in this scenario depending on what team gave up their pick to sign Keuchel, the Astros would have had either the 78th or 79th overall pick if Keuchel had indeed landed on another team.
Rather than discussing how Keuchel would impact a new rotation, or how Kimbrel would shore up the back of a contending team’s bullpen, the two pitchers instead became the poster children for the increasing lack of action in baseball’s free agent market. With modern front offices putting so much value on possessing a young player (either a draft pick or an international signing) through six or as many as seven seasons pre-free agency, as well as an increased wariness in how veteran players decline in their 30’s, teams are simply loathe to give up draft capital and/or spend money on established free agents, even noted stars like Keuchel and Kimbrel.
In fairness to teams, the qualifying offer draft compensation wasn’t the only reason both pitchers are still available as the calendar turned to June. There were legitimate baseball reasons to hold off on spending huge money on either player — Keuchel’s grounder-heavy arsenal and lack of a power fastball might not age well, while Kimbrel looked shaky down the stretch and throughout Boston’s postseason run in 2018.
Keuchel and Boras were looking for at least a five-year contract, while Kimbrel entered the offseason hoping for what would have been a record-setting $100MM+ contract for a closer. Both those sky-high initial asking prices have since been lowered, as Kimbrel was said to be looking for a three-year deal in early April, while Kimbrel was reportedly open to a one-year contract worth more than the value of the $17.9MM qualifying offer he turned down from Houston. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, however, notes that such a prorated one-year offer isn’t being considered by either Keuchel or Kimbrel, as “both would be signed” if they were willing to settle for such contracts.
With the draft pick hurdle now cleared and over a third of the season gone, it remains to be seen exactly what type of contracts Keuchel and Kimbrel will end up signing. A one-year pact would have allowed either pitcher to test free agency again this winter without the qualifying offer, though that scenario might not be appealing if the shortened season does lead to a downturn in performance. At the same time, it’s rather hard to imagine teams extended multi-year guarantees given the circumstances.
As odd as it sounds after seven months of inaction, but Keuchel and Kimbrel now aim to be hot commodities for a wide range of teams looking for rotation or bullpen help. The Braves, Brewers, and Rays have each had interest in both pitchers, with Atlanta, St. Louis and the Yankees considered “favorites” for Keuchel, as per Heyman, and such teams as the Mets, Diamondbacks, and Twins have also been mentioned as possible candidates to sign Keuchel. For Kimbrel, the Phillies and Cubs are known to have some level of interest in the closer. A signing could some relatively quickly, or Keuchel and Kimbrel may still take a bit more time to properly sort through the offers coming their way.
Phillies Acquire Jay Bruce
3:33pm: The trade is now official, per a Phillies announcement, with The Athletic’s Matt Gelb tweeting additional details on the deal: the Mariners will acquire minor league infielder Jake Scheiner from Philadelphia, while the Phillies will receive about $18MM from Seattle to cover the majority of Bruce’s remaining salary.
9:31am: The Phillies and Mariners were rumored to be very close yesterday on a deal that would send first baseman/outfielder Jay Bruce to Philadelphia, and Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia (Twitter link) is reporting that the trade has been completed. Bruce could potentially join his new club as early as today — the Phillies are in Los Angeles completing a series with the Dodgers, while the Mariners are at home this weekend against the Angels.
The exact return headed back to Seattle isn’t yet known, though The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported yesterday that the Mariners would receive a minor leaguer and some money back from Philadelphia to cover the roughly $21.6MM owed on Bruce’s contract through the end of the 2020 season. As per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the Phillies will take on “the bulk” of Bruce’s remaining salary, so it’s safe to assume that the M’s will only be getting a minor prospect in return for getting so much cash off their books.
Bruce is no stranger to the trade market, as the 32-year-old has now been dealt four times in less than three years’ time. Bruce most recently went to the Mariners as part of the blockbuster trade that sent Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz to Mets, with Bruce included in the deal largely as a way of partially offsetting Cano’s large contract. In his brief time as a Mariner, Bruce showed plenty of pop, cracking 14 homers and posting a whopping .533 slugging percentage over 184 plate appearances. While Bruce’s average (.212) and OBP (.283) have a lot of room for improvement, it seems as if Bruce has rebounded from a down year in 2018 that was marred by hip problems.
While Bruce has actually been a reverse-splits hitter in the small sample size of his 2019 numbers, the Phillies are counting on his left-handed bat to help their mediocre numbers (91 wRC+) against right-handed pitching. The Phils were known to be looking to add left-handed balance to a lineup almost entirely full of righty bats, aside from Bryce Harper and switch-hitting Cesar Hernandez.
With Harper and Rhys Hoskins respectively locked into the right field and first base jobs in Philadelphia, Bruce looks to be slated for left field when he is in the starting lineup. Andrew McCutchen has been moved over to center field in the wake of Odubel Herrera being placed on administrative leave earlier this week, and it remains to be seen if more outfield moves could be made given that there isn’t any timeline for Herrera’s return. It has been some time since McCutchen was a defensively-viable center fielder, and Bruce’s metrics as a corner outfielder have also been below average for several seasons. It stands to reason that the Phillies could still pursue a center field option in order to give them the flexibility of moving McCutchen back to left field, where he has displayed some solid glovework.
Moreover, the deal is notable in that a trade of this variety is relatively rare in the first days of June. Yes, the playoff race has begun to take shape, but the trade market is not a robust one and plenty of teams have not firmly taken a stance towards buying or selling. For that reason, interest in Bruce may have been limited compared to where it might have been in July, especially if Bruce’s power keeps up. The deal may perhaps be compared to the Braves’ 2017 acquisition of Matt Adams, which occurred on May 20, with Adams stepping in as a stopgap for Freddie Freeman, who suffered a wrist injury that would keep him out for about six weeks. Analogously, Herrera’s stay on the administrative leave has no timetable, leaving the Phils in search of a short-term replacement.
For the Mariners, this could be the first of many trades coming over the next two months, as the team is reportedly open to moving several veteran players. Since GM Jerry Dipoto announced his intentions to “re-imagine” the roster last November, the M’s have parted ways with Cano, Diaz, Jean Segura, James Paxton, Mike Zunino, Alex Colome, and a host of other players, significantly cutting payroll and adding young talent to both the farm system and the MLB roster. Getting the Phillies to take the majority of Bruce’s salary already counts as a win for Dipoto, as Bruce’s contract was looking like something of an albatross in the wake of his disappointing 2018 season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Phillies Close To Acquiring Jay Bruce
TODAY: The Phillies will cover “the bulk” of Bruce’s remaining salary obligations once the deal is official, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. While the exact dollar figures aren’t yet known, the Phillies were willing to take on more of Bruce’s contract than any other team the Mariners were in talks with about the veteran slugger, Nightengale notes.
SATURDAY, 10:46pm: A deal’s close to the finish line, “pending a review of Bruce’s medicals and other final details,” Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets. The Mariners will receive cash savings and a minor leaguer in return, Rosenthal adds.
12:57pm: Passan has amended his earlier report to state that a deal between the two sides is “not imminent.”
12:45pm: The Phillies are “nearing a deal” to acquire Jay Bruce, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan, who notes that the deal’s expected to be completed within the next 24 hours.
Bruce, 32, has rebounded in ’19 for the Mariners after a poor showing in 2018 with the Mets. In 184 plate appearances for Seattle, the three-time all-star’s posted a solid .212/.283/.533 line (114 wRC+) on the back of a career-best .321 ISO. His hard-hit rate has jumped to near career-best levels, though his average exit velocity (via Statcast) still doesn’t register among the game’s top 100 qualified hitters.
Armed with a no-trade clause and a hefty $22.5 MM remaining on the three-year deal he signed with New York prior to the 2018 season, Bruce didn’t seem a likely candidate to move so soon, especially to a club which already featured Bryce Harper and an aging Andrew McCutchen at the corner-outfield spots. McCutchen, though, has more often been deployed in his traditional center-field post (despite frightening advanced metrics at the position in his last two prolonged attempts) in the absence of Odubel Herrera, who’s been placed on administrative leave after his arrest for a domestic violence charge.
Bruce, then, could fill Nick Williams‘ current role as the strong side of a left-field platoon, or perhaps simply as a bench option (MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Phils are looking to upgrade the unit) and DH in AL parks. The longtime Red’s always been a bit of a liability against southpaws, and his defense, like McCutchen’s, has declined rapidly in recent seasons.
Trigger-happy Mariners GM Jerry DiPoto again seems to be on the prowl for Seattle, this time in perhaps the more thorough iteration of a multi-stage teardown that began in earnest last November. There’ll be no shortage of candidates with which to shuffle, though many of the choicest names have been injured (Kyle Seager) or seen their performance slide to immovable levels (Dee Gordon, Mike Leake).
Luke Weaver Will Attempt To Rehab Through UCL Injury
The Diamondbacks announced that righty Luke Weaver has been diagnosed with an injury to his right ulnar collateral ligament and flexor pronator but will not undergo surgery. Instead, he’ll “be treated conservatively.”
Weaver and the D-Backs did not arrive at this conclusion without quite some thought. He was checked out by four different physicians, per manager Torey Lovullo. The injury turned out to be rather significant — last we checked in, it had been labeled a forearm strain — but not quite bad enough to warrant a procedure that would likely have cost Weaver the remainder of this season along with a big chunk of 2020.
It’s obviously preferable to avoid Tommy John surgery whenever possible, since it’s a major procedure that isn’t foolproof and require a lengthy layoff. That said, there’s also some real risk in holding off when it may well be warranted. If a rehab approach fails to take, it can make for a delay that pushes back the ultimate return date.
Though it’s good to hear that the injury is on the mild side, there’s really no sugarcoating UCL issues. There’s enough time for Weaver to make it back to the mound this season, if all goes well in the healing process and there aren’t setbacks when he tries to ramp back up. But the injury will still rob him of a big portion of the present season and will hang over his head thereafter.
Weaver still holds plenty of promise. He boosted his stock after landing with the Snakes on the heels of a messy 2018 effort, opening the current season with 62 1/3 innings of 3.03 ERA ball while recording 9.8 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9. So long as he’s able to heal up, the 25-year-old should have many good years ahead of him. And the Diamondbacks have ample time to receive further production, as Weaver will be under team control through at least 2023.
Carlos Correa Diagnosed With Fractured Rib
4:45pm: Correa has issued a statement on the injury, which occurred off the field (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan):
“I’m extremely disappointed about not being on the field with my teammates. I sustained the rib fracture during a massage at my home on Tuesday. To sustain an injury in such an unusual way makes it even more frustrating. However, I will work hard to get back on the field as quickly as possible to help our team achieve our goal of winning another championship.”
10:57am: Astros star Carlos Correa has been diagnosed with a fractured rib, Mark Berman of FOX 26 reported (via Twitter) and the team has since announced. He’s expected to be sidelined for four to six weeks and will obviously be headed for a stint on the injured list.
It’s a disappointing development for the Houston organization and its 24-year-old shortstop, who had hoped for a fully healthy season on the heels of an injury-limited 2018 campaign. Fortunately, it does not appear this issue is connected to the back and oblique issues Correa experienced last year.
Correa had looked himself in the first fifty games of the new year. Through 214 plate appearances, he carries a hefty .295/.360/.547 batting line with 11 home runs — good for a 143 wRC+.
The injury doesn’t change Correa’s revived outlook at the plate, but it will again impact his earning power. He took down a $5MM salary after winning an arbitration hearing against the ‘Stros. That’s a nice start, but not the kind of scratch he’d have commanded with a typical and healthy platform season. Missing time this year will similarly limit his ability to build up a raise in his second (and second-to-last) season of arb eligibility.
Correa joins fellow stars George Springer and Jose Altuve on the injured list. Notably, reserve infielder Aledmys Diaz is also sidelined, creating some obvious challenges in the middle infield.
This being the Astros, there are still ample possibilities on hand. Alex Bregman would be a superstar at shortstop had he not been bumped to third base due to Correa, so he can slide over. The team can shift Yuli Gurriel to third, but after that it’ll need to rely on less-established players.
Infielder/outfielder Myles Straw has been summoned from Triple-A to take the open roster spot. He has played almost exclusively as an outfielder as a professional, but began spending time at shortstop this year at Triple-A. Straw and the just-promoted Jack Mayfield could share time at second base and chip in on the left side of the infield.
Both those players have a good case for a chance at the majors, though it’d be unreasonable to expect them to fill the shoes of Correa and Altuve. Houston GM Jeff Luhnow said he’d at least take a look at the external options, as MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart tweets, though he noted that he’s comfortable with the organization’s overall middle-infield depth.
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Odubel Herrera Placed On Administrative Leave After Arrest
11:34am: Herrera has been placed on administrative leave, Gelb tweets.
10:49am: Phillies outfielder Odubel Herrera was arrested last night in Atlantic City, according to Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. He was released after being charged with simple assault relating to a domestic violence incident, Matt Gelb of The Athletic adds on Twitter.
Herrera is said to have been arrested after an incident involving a 20-year-old woman believed to be his girlfriend. She “had visible signs of injury to her arms and neck” due to the alleged assault, according to the police report obtained by Gelb.
It is disturbing and disheartening to learn of another alleged perpetration of domestic violence from a MLB player. Dodgers pitcher Julio Urias was arrested recently and is also facing criminal charges. Numerous other players have been suspended in recent years under the MLB-MLBPA joint domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse policy.
Given the reported facts, it seems all but certain that Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred will exercise his authority to place the 27-year-old Herrera on administrative leave. The policy authorizes the commissioner to place players on paid leave for one week at a time during the pendency of an investigation.
The Phillies had an off day yesterday and are scheduled to begin a home series today. If Herrera is placed on administrative leave, the club would be able to bring up a replacement player this evening.
Where things go from that point remains to be seen. In situations in which the league has been able to acquire evidence to support the possibility of an action that violates the policy, it has applied successive leave periods to keep a player out of action while final punishment is assessed. But that is not always the course. Urias was reinstated one week after his arrest while the league continues its investigation.
Dustin Pedroia Unsure If He’ll Play Again
The Red Sox shifted injured second baseman Dustin Pedroia to the 60-day IL on Monday after he suffered yet another setback in his problematic left knee. Pedroia met with reporters to discuss his future, revealing he’s unsure if he’ll be able to resume his career.
“I’m at a point right now where I need some time. That’s what my status is,” Pedroia told Rob Bradford of WEEI and other media. Asked if he’ll play again, Pedroia said, “I’m not sure.”
One thing is clear, according to Pedroia: Another surgical procedure is off the table. The 35-year-old has gone under the knife twice dating back to October 2016, but neither knee surgery has helped him stay on the field. Pedroia missed all but three regular-season games during Boston’s World Series-winning campaign in 2018 and has only appeared in six this year.
With it looking as if Pedroia won’t play again in 2019, he’s set to take an “indefinite break” from rehabbing his knee – which he doesn’t believe will ever heal (via Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com).
“Time will go on and I’ll know more about it,” Pedroia said. “I haven’t sat down and thought about retirement. I just know that right now I need a break from the everyday stresses of dealing with what I’m dealing with.”
If we have seen the last of Pedroia on the diamond, it’ll mark the end of a borderline Hall of Fame career. A second-round pick of the Red Sox in 2004, the diminutive Pedroia burst on the scene in 2007, his first full season, en route to AL Rookie of the Year honors. All he has done since then is win an AL MVP (2008), earn four All-Star nods and help the Red Sox to two World Series championships, among other accomplishments. To this point, Pedroia’s a .299/.365/.439 hitter (115 wRC+) with 140 home runs, 138 stolen bases and 51.7 rWAR/46.7 fWAR.
Thanks to the brilliance Pedroia displayed over his first several seasons, the Red Sox signed him to an eight-year, $110MM extension in July of 2013. Including this season’s $15MM salary, he’s still owed $40MM on that deal through 2021. Now, six years after Pedroia inked the first-ever nine-figure pact for a second baseman, his playing career may be over.
Indians Release Carlos Gonzalez
TODAY: Gonzalez has officially been released, as per Roster Roundup (Twitter link).
WEDNESDAY: The Indians have designated veteran outfielder Carlos Gonzalez for assignment in order to open a spot on the active roster for catcher Eric Haase, Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon Journal tweets. Haase was already on the 40-man roster, but the club opted to cut ties with Gonzalez rather than place Roberto Perez on the 7-day concussion list. Perez apparently tested well enough following last night’s concussion that the team isn’t currently planning to place him on the IL (though he’ll quite likely still sit out the next couple of days at the least).
Gonzalez, 33, will see his time with Cleveland come to an end after 30 games and 117 ugly plate appearances that didn’t inspire much confidence. The three-time All-Star and former NL batting champ hit just .210/.282/.276 with a pair of homers, a double and 33 strikeouts in his short time with the Indians. That type of production wouldn’t cut it even if the Indians were a first-place club, but the fact that they’re sitting six and a half games back in the American League Central only further creates a sense of urgency to coax production out of what has been a dismal lineup.
Gonzalez is the second former superstar with whom the Indians have parted ways since Opening Day; Hanley Ramirez cracked the Opening Day roster as the team’s designated hitter but was cut loose after 16 games and 57 plate appearances worth of similarly disappointing numbers.
With Gonzalez now subtracted from the outfield mix, the Indians will free up additional at-bats for younger options. Oscar Mercado has shown well in his first handful of MLB games, and the Indians could take further looks at some combination of Tyler Naquin, Greg Allen, Jake Bauers and Jordan Luplow their corner outfield/DH rotation. The Athletic’s Zack Meisel tweets that former first-round pick and top prospect Bradley Zimmer, who is recovering from 2018 shoulder surgery, is expected to begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Columbus sometime next week, so he’ll emerge as an option in the not-too-distant future as well.
Cleveland will have a week to either find a trade partner for Gonzalez or release him. An outright assignment is technically possible but seems unlikely; Gonzalez would have to accept the assignment despite knowing that there are younger options that the team wishes to evaluate at length before giving him another look. The most probable outcome is that Gonzalez will simply be released and look for a new opportunity to rebuild his stock following a change of scenery.
Angels Reinstate Andrew Heaney, Option Jaime Barria
The Angels have reinstated left-handed pitcher Andrew Heaney from the injured list, per an official club announcement. Heaney will start Sunday’s game against the Rangers in his season debut. To make room for Heaney on the active roster, right-hander Jaime Barria has been optioned to Triple-A.
The 27-year-old Heaney is prepared to make his 2019 season debut, which couldn’t come sooner for the struggling Angels—the team’s own starting pitching has perhaps been the most substantial impediment to the Halos’ postseason aspirations. On Sunday, though, the club will welcome back Heaney, who enjoyed a breakout 2018, which marked the first time in his Major League career that the injury-riddled southpaw was able to make 30 starts in a season.
Last year, Heaney struck out 180 batters in as many innings, leading many to express optimism that he could anchor the 2019 Angels rotation, a development that has been years in the making due to Heaney’s injury-marred past, which included a Tommy John surgery that cost him most of the 2016 and 2017 seasons. For that reason, the elbow issues that landed him on the IL to open this season were that much more troubling. However, Heaney has served his time and is in position to provide a considerable boost to an Angels team that has endured more than its fair share of health-related misfortune.
Barria, who will go the minors, has kicked in 14 1/3 innings for the Halos, mostly coming out of the bullpen. Following a rookie season in which he posted a 3.41 ERA in 26 starts, Barria has worked out of a long-relief role this year, though he has gotten work as a starter in Triple-A Salt Lake, where he has a 6.58 ERA in 5 games.